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Sage advice on the polls

Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, April 29th, 2011 - 35 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out.

Support for government parties is up 1% to 56%:
National Party 51% (unchanged),
Maori Party 3.5% (up 2%),
ACT NZ 1% (down 1%)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged),

Support for Opposition Parties is down 1% to 44%:
Labour Party 32% (up 0.5%)
Greens 8%, (unchanged),
New Zealand First 3% (down 2%),
Progressive Party 0.5% (up 0.5%),
Others 0.5% (unchanged).

The sample size is 991, with 6% (down 1%) don’t know. On Government Confidence: 53.5% (down 1%) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’, 32.5% (up 3%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Given the consistency of the Roy Morgan polling it’s pretty clear that the TV3 poll that had Labour on 27% (and that got some of the more vacuous righties so over stimulated) was a rogue.

And with respect to polls in general, here’s some sage advice from an unexpected source — see if you can work out who said it before you click the link:

He did not put much stock into poll results that show that Mr Hide’s grip on the Epsom seat is in jeopardy. “I wouldn’t want to read too much into that. I’ve seen that polling in the paper a month or so ago. It’s a wee way out til [the general election on] November 26.”

Indeed.

35 comments on “Sage advice on the polls”

  1. calltoaccount 1

    Yep, guessed correctly. The “wee way out” waffle is the give away I reckon.

  2. tsmithfield 2

    This poll shows support increasing for the government and decreasing for the opposition. So how, exactly is this good news for the opposition? Especially considering that the key support partner for Labour, NZ First, has lost 40% since last poll and is now well below the 5% threshold. Support for the MP has also increased considerably suggesting that ditching HH has been good for support.

    • r0b 2.1

      The changes since the last Roy Morgan are margin of error – pay them no mind. The good news is that the TV3 poll now looks seriously rogue.

      I don’t see NZF as a key support partner, I’d rather they didn’t make it back. Let’s see some new polling once the Mana party and new ACT party bed in with the public. And let’s not forget that in 2002, after Labour’s first term, the gap between Labour and Nat closed by about 10% in the months before the election.

      • Herodotus 2.1.1

        Support for the Mana party? Who is going to add to the ego of a certain MP who display Narcissistic tendencies and
        The reported front man is the answer I would hate to hear what the question was. Perhaps this what party/MP can do more in regressing NZ to 3rd world status?
        Ps this is crap savings from the govt. But on a good note there are good corpoarte morals out there … Re the Mad Butcher helping a poor old woman left in the crap
        And why is there limited commetary on this?
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/act-party/news/article.cfm?o_id=359&objectid=10722200

        • PeteG 2.1.1.1

          Support for the Mana party?

          The Maori get low party % so I think Mana will probbaly be similar- electorate votes could be competitive while the party vote may be irrelevant.

    • gobsmacked 2.2

      Good news because it suggests the TV3 poll was false, since it is out of line with all others.

      The right-wing spin of Labour being in freefall is just wishful thinking. Labour are static, which is not good enough, but Don Brash is kindly doing his best to change that.

      • tsmithfield 2.2.1

        r0b: “The changes since the last Roy Morgan are margin of error – pay them no mind. The good news is that the TV3 poll now looks seriously rogue.”

        Well the difference for Labour between the TV3 poll (27%) and the Roy Morgan Poll (32%) is only 5%. Thats probably within the margin of error territory as well. So why not split the difference? That would give Labour 29.5% support. I could agree with that.

        • r0b 2.2.1.1

          Sure TS, whatever makes you happy.

          • tsmithfield 2.2.1.1.1

            You seem to be the one who experiences unbridled joy because one poll is marginally less catastrophic than another. Still, what ever turns you lights on, I guess.

            • wtl 2.2.1.1.1.1

              With all this nitpicking you seem to be missing the point of the post. Hint: it’s in the title

  3. gobsmacked 3

    One problem is that the TV polls are irregular, but get the most coverage. The Morgan poll is regular, but is largely ignored by the media.

    It is amusingly possible that ACT could get an unrecorded boost from this week’s coup, i.e. go up a few points, and then go back down again by the time the next TV One poll comes out (May, post- budget?).

    Of course, the next TV3 poll will be compared with the last one, even if they are months apart. So Dunce Garner could be shouting “Ooh! Labour up 5%!” as if it was a major move, rather than a return to reality after a rogue snapshot.

    • Pascal's bookie 3.1

      The narratavium on the next TV3 poll is setting up interestingly.

      Unless they’ve got a rassmussin type problem, the rougue factor should correct, swinging a few points Nat -> Lab.

      Add that effect to a few points Nat -> ACT and what’s that narrative re the burger king putsch?

      Garner’s horse race story writes itself.

  4. higherstandard 4

    Here’s some sage advice on the polls.

    They are fucking shit, ignore them.

    • Name (required) 4.1

      Of course they’re shit, but because they exist they can’t be ignored.

      MMP invites tactical voting, but tactical voting is only possible if tactical choices are possible and tactical choices are only made possible by polls. If polls show the Nats riding high some Nat voters will consider giving their party vote (the only one that matters for most people) to ACT in the hope they will give Nat some backbone. If the polls show a close run thing with Labour the right will vote Nat in the hope it will keep Labour out. Ditto (currently) Labour and the Greens.

      Political polls are what goat’s entrails were to the Romans – shit that shaped the world.

      I would like to see them banned altogether, or for at least a month prior to any general or local election so that people can exercise democracy uninfluenced by anything but what they personally think. However as shit is meat and drink to most politicians I dare say we’re stuck with them.

  5. Rich 5

    I’m predicting ACT will jump to 3-6% (mostly from National) on name recognition in the next set of polls. They’ll then drop back, to maybe around 2-4%, unless some sort of scandal can be found, in which case they’ll be back down to negligibility.

  6. randal 6

    a rump tea party.
    useful idiots.

    where do they find them?
    its nearly time to say goodbye to them.

  7. It is my considered opinion that it was the Botany by-election result (the ONLY poll that counts) that helped provoke this Don Bra$h DICKtatorship coup?

    Slightly desperate move?

    No wonder ‘shonky’ John Key is now trying to back-peddle and be seen to keep his distance from ‘The Don’?

    It’s all spin-doctored ‘perception’ deception…………..

    (yawn)…………

    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure.wordpress.com

  8. burt 8

    Labour are still too high considering they did such incredible damage to the economy last time they stole an election for another 3 years of tyranny.

    • r0b 8.1

      The more the public gets to see of demented ACToids the better. A big hand for burt please folks – he’s out there driving voters to the left…

      • ianmac 8.1.1

        Perhaps you could give burt a guest-Post platform Rob, where he could continue to outline the reasons to not vote NAct.

    • Bored 8.2

      Burt, going on empirical evidence I can only conclude that you are:
      * misinformed.
      * reading selectively.
      * not reading at all.
      * have not be listening reading or otherwise in touch for the last 2 years
      * deliberately stupid
      * all of the above

    • Well if they did so much damage perhaps you will,explain why the Tories went all around the country telling us how mean Dr Cullen was by not spending all the money the Labour Government had . How did they afford the tax cuts to the rich if Labour had left the country in debt.
      Any way I thought the proposed selling of assets was going to be carried out because of the Christchurch earth quake, nothing to do with Labour Government ,

  9. Bored 9

    A mere 6% needs to come off of the Right vote, thats 1 person in 20. My take is that the 2 things that need to happen are:
    * for Winston to get the greys to the polls,
    * for the Westie / Pacifica vote to happen.

    • burt 9.1

      Hell you lovers of big corrupt self serving govt must be desperate when start relying on a proven liar to help you win an election.

    • Jum 9.2

      Bored,

      Have respect for the olds, Bored.

      Greypower accepts members from 50 years I think. Not only does Greypower have an issue with our assets being privatised, as it says so on their mission statement, but they have grandchildren.

      Goff needs to ensure that the sums are out there on the huge debt our children’s children are going to be left with because of the selfish aggrandisement of this government and its greedy backers and supporters.

      He also needs to remind himself and other babyboomers that they gained from the sacrifices of their parents and keep that in mind when formulating their policies for a more humane government by the left. I have no doubt that Labour will do that whereas NActMU is a cut-throat society of knife them in the back before they do it to you type of people. How long I wonder before Kiwis become disillusioned with that sort of ‘living’.

      This NActMU government and, more importantly, its supporters are mostly of this age and will be held ultimately responsible for the Americanisation, accompanied by greedy and selfish excesses, forced upon this country, (as in the 80s) but they also know that their stockpiling of wealth from the sell off of SOEs will shelter them and theirs from the ensuing financial fallout because they will have the insider knowledge of when the country will fall over again and will protect their share monies.

      Brash and Key had/have the contacts world-wide, as they did with the last recession but they never suffered, did they. ‘Clever financial manager/moneytrader’ Mr Key didn’t bother to tell 90% of New Zealanders of the financial fallover tho’. Funny that…

      No wonder NAct were frothing at the mouth when Cullen was protecting New Zealand from money surpluses being spent on tax cuts in the first two terms. NAct needed people to be desperate and out of work. Instead, employers were having to pay decent wages to get people and there was a near zero unemployment level and zero government debt. Not at all the sort of New Zealand the NActs wanted in place to start their social and financial engineering. However, to the greedy and unethical Key, Hide and English a bit of financial tinkering along with their lying still made it possible to mislead the people of New Zealand that trusted their campaign words.

      I think that is what I find the most unforgiveable. That JKeyll can laugh at people’s suffering after they trusted him and his cronies.

      Goff needs to remind New Zealanders that in order to keep the NActMU philosophy of excessive riches for the ‘top’ 10% needs an ever-increasing level of poverty in the other 90% of people.

      • Colonial Viper 9.2.1

        I believe its actually the top 5% of income and wealth holders who need to be heavily targetted, not the top 10%.

        To fall into the top 10% income earners in NZ you only need to make about $70K p.a. I know its a lot more money than others have, but families on that much are strictly only middle class still, watching bills like a hawk and trying to keep up with mortgage payments. In contrast, the top 5% income level kicks in around $90K p.a. That’s roughly $1100 per month more disposable income.

        At the same time, advantages need to be given to small businesses and entrepreneurs in ventures looking to employ more and more NZ’ers on good pay.

        In the US, wealth and income inequality is so incredible that they could solve the majority of their fiscal woes by targetting just the top 1% in their population.

        • Jum 9.2.1.1

          Colonial Viper

          I take your point.

          I’d be happy if government just made it impossible for the ‘top’ 5% to avoid paying their tax.

          PS I don’t know why I keep referring to these tax avoiders as the ‘top’ when I really know they are the lowest of the low!

  10. As I have sad before ,get the disadvataged out to the polls. All of the Left to start attacking Act/Nat and not each other .

  11. Jum 11

    Just saw Judith Collins on an old recording telling Pacifica that Don Brash was so honest, just after he had done the Orewa speech and that he believed in what he was saying – then Hollow Men comes out – it was a speech cooked up by spin doctor… to get some heat going.

    At the end of the programme, there is Anae, Nat. telling the group that it wasn’t planned, otherwise Brash would have done the speech a few months out from the election… circa 2007

    Lies, lies lies by this government and its old/new/old lying partners.

  12. Jum 12

    And don’t you just love it. On One the commentator talked about Julia Gillard, Australia coming through the door along with John Key but they didn’t mention him and they didn’t mention New Zealand at all amongst the countries that are receiving televised showings. Love it.

    • U 4 United 12.1

      So what’s your point Jum? Who could be bored enough to follow the Royal Wedding when one can salivate over the continuing collapse of the left vote here?

  13. Jum 13

    U 4 United,

    You follow a royal wedding because you want to see your prime minister putting on a good show and find out what his wife is wearing and where they are sitting and you want to feel proud that your country is playing its part in the world, helping to bring about equality, equity, reducing poverty both here and abroad.

    Unfortunately, knowing what a cunning, lying, thieving moneytrader JKeyll is who treats New Zealand as his private business cutting labour costs and giving huge dividends to his backer shareholders – shareholders in asset stripping and destroying this country’s autonomy – all I could do this time was look at the hats. At least they were meant to be showoffy, not like the Business Rotundtable’s lackey/monkey in the green suit.

    This creature has brought this country into disrepute. He has made wealthy people wealthier and the rest of New Zealanders poorer or down a step into poverty. Douglas did half a job in the 1980s and now Key has invited him in to finish the job in this government, meanwhile flicking any damage on to everyone (Hide e.g.) but himself. JKeyll has no ethics and his followers are scum.

    Should I ask you not to take the last sentence personally? That’s never gonna happen.

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    The Green Party has today launched the Internet Rights and Freedoms Bill, New Zealand's first ever Bill crowdsourced by a political party.Members of the public will be invited to shape the proposed law, which will protect ten basic rights and...
    Greens | 23-04
  • Sanil Kumar has to leave New Zealand tomorrow
    The Associate Minister of Immigration Nikki Kaye’s decision not to intervene means kidney transplant patient Sanil Kumar must leave New Zealand by tomorrow, says Labour’s Immigration spokesperson Rajen Prasad. “Kumar, a plumber and sheet metal worker, was on a work visa...
    Labour | 22-04
  • Time to do the right thing for our veterans
    A Labour government will adopt the Law Commission’s recommendation to ensure all war veterans are eligible for a Veteran’s Pension, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Veterans are only eligible for the pension if they are considered ‘significantly’ disabled, or more...
    Labour | 22-04
  • Public servant is owed an apology
    Nigel Fyfe is owed an apology from the State Services Commissioner Iain Rennie and Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully, says Labour's State Services spokesperson, Maryan Street. “The former MFAT official has now been restored to a position in the Ministry...
    Labour | 22-04
  • Laws for enforcing not trading off
    The idea that a Government department can give a nod and a wink to traders that it won’t enforce shop trading laws and for a Government MP to then claim it as grounds for a review of the law is...
    Labour | 21-04
  • Kiwis still paying too much for ACC
    Kiwis are still paying too much for ACC so that the National Government can balance its books, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “ACC Minister Judith Collins told Cabinet levies were too high but ACC’s proposed cuts would impact the...
    Labour | 21-04
  • Collins’ memory recovery raises further concerns
    Judith Collins sudden memory of briefing the New Zealand Ambassador to China about her dinner with a Chinese border official and her husband's fellow Oravida directors raises further concerns about exactly what was discussed, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. "This...
    Labour | 21-04
  • MP to attend progressive politics conference
    Labour MP Grant Robertson will attend the Progressive Governance conference in Amsterdam later this week. “This conference brings together Social Democratic parties from around the world to discuss how progressive politics should work in the post global financial crisis environment....
    Labour | 20-04
  • Storm fans fire service commitment
    Further damage from the huge storm that battered the West Coast was prevented by the great work of our volunteer Fire Service and locals will be extremely grateful, Labour’s MP for West Coast-Tasman Damien O’Connor says. “Our region has been...
    Labour | 19-04
  • Time for Ryall to fix mistakes and help families
    Families who won a long and lengthy Court battle for financial help to support their disabled daughters and sons are now facing a new battle with health system bureaucracy and need the Health Minister's help, Labour's Disability Issues spokesperson Ruth...
    Labour | 18-04
  • Time for greater ministerial accountability
    The Green Party has today released a proposal to introduce a ministerial disclosure regime in New Zealand to improve the transparency and accountability of government.The proposal, based on the system used in the United Kingdom since 2010, would require all...
    Greens | 18-04
  • Power prices soar on the eve of winter
    On the eve of winter as New Zealanders are turning on their heaters, power prices have soared sky high, Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer says. “Energy Minster Simon Bridges claimed in Parliament that prices were estimated to rise 2.4 per...
    Labour | 18-04
  • Workers can kiss goodbye to Easter Sunday off
    The Government’s decision to “reprioritise” scarce labour inspector resources by abandoning the enforcement of Easter Sunday Shop Trading laws means workers can kiss goodbye to a guaranteed day off, says Labour’s Associate Labour Issues spokesperson Darien Fenton. “The Labour Minister...
    Labour | 18-04
  • Businesses need to respect workers this Easter
    Businesses intent on flouting Easter shopping laws should face stiff penalties, Green Party industrial relations spokesperson Denise Roche said today. This Easter, at least one major garden centre chain intends to open on Good Friday despite this being in breach...
    Greens | 17-04
  • Time to deliver on 26 weeks Paid Parental Leave
    Today marks two years since Labour MP Sue Moroney's Bill extending paid parental leave to 26 weeks was drawn from the members' ballot. “It’s time the Government acted in the interests of families,” Sue Moroney says. “National has tried every...
    Labour | 17-04
  • Taxpayers robbed of $130m in Genesis sale
    Kiwi taxpayers have been robbed of $130 million by the Government in its final failed asset sale, says Labour’s SOEs spokesperson Clayton Cosgrove. “National set the price for Genesis far too low in a desperate attempt to beef up demand....
    Labour | 17-04
  • Work visa problems need monitoring
    The Government is handing out temporary work visas to migrants to work in jobs that could easily be filled by unemployed Kiwi workers in the Christchurch rebuild, says Darien Fenton, Labour’s Associate Immigration spokesperson. “In the past 12 months, temporary...
    Labour | 17-04
  • Resignation rates among cops soar
    The number of frontline officers quitting the police force is at a four-year high, with more than 350 walking off the job in the past year, Labour’s Police spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “Since 2009 resignation rates among sworn staff have...
    Labour | 17-04
  • Service for victims of sexual violence pushed out in cold
    The Green Party is calling on Housing New Zealand to revisit its decision to evict an essential community organisation in Christchurch with only eight weeks notice.Yesterday at the Select Committee inquiry into funding for sexual violence support services the organisation...
    Greens | 17-04
  • Legal high ban worthy of wider pick-up
    Auckland Council’s ban on using legal highs in a public place is an excellent idea that should be replicated around New Zealand, says Labour’s Associate Health Spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway. “Auckland Council has implemented a by-law banning the use of psychoactive...
    Labour | 17-04
  • Smith sells state P-houses to first home buyers
    Nick Smith must reassure worried first home buyers that any Housing NZ houses sold under his First Home policy will be tested for P contamination after revelations that three out of seven properties sold in Wanganui tested positive for methamphetamine,...
    Labour | 17-04
  • PM’s China visit assisted Oravida, not Fonterra
    Questions must now be asked whether it was Fonterra or Oravida who really benefited from the Prime Minister’s recent visit to China, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Before his departure, John Key said he would wait until all...
    Labour | 16-04