Written By: - Date published: 12:03 pm, September 26th, 2008 - 42 comments
Categories: climate change, economy -
Tags: peak oil
We all knew New Zealand was in recession in the first six months of this year. The official figures have confirmed this. The surprise though is on the upside. The consensus had been that the economy had shrunk 0.5% in the quarter. In fact, it was 0.2%. Remember that this figure occurred during the height of the latest oil price spike. Petrol increased 13% in price over this period. So, the fact that our economy could weather this storm better than expected speaks to its underlying strength.
Conditions have improved in the last few months. But things look set to get tougher in coming years. The current credit crunch and the global waves of volatility moving from one market to another (housing, shares, oil, gold, commodities, food) are signs of the global economy reaching the limits to growth. In the next few years we will face ever higher oil prices as peak oil hits and shortages of other resources will flow from that (as an example, there is now a waiting list for the huge tyres mining trucks use: the ingredients are oil and rubber, there is not enough oil, and rubber plantations are being replaced by palm oil grown as biofuel). We will also face a demographic shock as the baby-boomers retire: the housing market will tank, the workforce will stop growing, while the number of dependents will rise. Larger than all of these concerns, climate change is happening more rapidly than anyone predicted. In the last few days, plumes of methane gas have been reported rising from the Arctic Ocean; it appears the undersea permafrost is melting. If you don’t understand the implications of that, I’m afraid you will in the coming years.
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Scoopit!
No problem, pleased you liked it – thought it was a good summary.
THIS though… this is hands down the coolest idea for a resolution I’ve seen so far:
http://www.overcompensating.com/posts/20080924.html
[lprent: stupid troll. ]
jbc:
Ummm – I’ve seen Helen a lot over the decades. She always has her nose down reading or working on something. It is what she does. I saw her on TV at the netball the other night, and she was working, probably on her speech.
I’ve also worked with her a lot over the years on local campaigns. She doesn’t micromanage unless people raise issues or something shows up that indicates a problem.
I believe the “speeding” thing because she simply would have said that she’d like to get to X by Y, and if there wasn’t any discussion, then gotten down to work. Those cars and for that matter roads are pretty smooth so there wouldn’t have been anything much.
She doesn’t lie, but she will not always help reporters or opposition MP’s out if they don’t ask the right questions. That is pretty legitimate.
Agreed. But that is the state of a “talkback” media. They assume that the population isn’t capable of adsorbing anything more. I suspect that is where they are wrong.
With difficulty. I find that writing stuff that isn’t code takes me quite a while. But I can shove thousands of lines of code together in a short period of time. Different talents. I like moderating
People pretty much contribute whatever time they can spare. At this point most are concentrating on stuff to do with the campaigning of the ‘left’. If they are going to spend time on this rather than grass-roots then they use it as effectively as possible. I know I do.
I’d expect that after the election there will be more wide ranging pieces, and for that matter that we’d be able to pick up more posters. At present all of the really interesting people are engaged and so are we about having time to find them.
Who is simple in their beliefs? However around here you tend to get concerted attacks by the goon squad from the rabid right whenever you show any intelligence in posts.
As you probably remember I’m probably the most right of lefties you’re likely to meet outside of Act. It is just that I recognize that you have to work with people to do things. Act seems to want to coerce.
Incidently there was a lovely line that Wilson said the other night (referring to Act). Something like Labour has had to provide the ideas for both the Left and the Right.
T-rex,
LOL.
morning all…must answer John Stevens and his crude allegations denigrating the Prime Minister Helen Clark and the Minister of Finance MIchael Cullen. this is the same line being promoted on twiedmee this morning as if these people suddenly got lucky and elevated to the highest positions in the land because of some mumbo jumbo that john stevens cant understand. Well all I can say is if New Zealand gets boy racer turbo capitlaism on the 8th then we are all stuffed john stebens included.
Randal,
We’re stuffed anyway. Ye biggum financial tsunami can no longer be avoided. The economic growth of the US was not through wealth producing middle class jobs.
Those had been outsourced to China but in the finance industry. Speculating with securities, hedging and betting to the tune of a quadrillion and selling predatorial mortgages to unsuspecting idiots who believed you couldn’t loose with owning your own home because the prices would always rise followed up by tricking people into taking on ever more debt to borrow cheap shit made in China.
America is bankrupt because the banksters have been running amok in a totally deregulated market and now those same criminals want the bankrupt Americans to cough up to bail them out while still retaining the right to foreclose on them.
the FBI is investigating Fanny and Freddy and a couple of other subprime lenders and as far as I am concerned they should put all of them in jail.
And here they want to vote one of those irresponsible gamblers to become the next prime minister even though he already tells us he’s going to borrow money to pay for tax cuts. Go figure.
It is absolute mayhem and if George Bush looks like a deer caught in the lights that is because he really is petrified. not because of the economy because that’s a goner no matter what but because he and his banking mates really don’t want to be found out.
Captcha: penny thousand. No not even that is gonna help. LOL