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Still waiting for that recovery…

Written By: - Date published: 3:32 pm, August 7th, 2013 - 80 comments
Categories: economy, employment, wages - Tags:

So the economic data is out and unemployment is up and wages are flat – the lowest rate of wage increase since 2010 (1.7%).  45% of employees didn’t get a pay rise, and the gender pay gap is now up to 13.24%.

Pacific unemployment increased to 16.3% – and the reason the stats overall aren’t worse is the big increase in employment in Canterbury, as the government relies on an earthquake-led recovery.

The number of unemployed is still up 46% since National took office.  That’s 48,000 Kiwis who would rather be working.

Still waiting for that Brighter FutureTM.

80 comments on “Still waiting for that recovery…”

  1. BLiP 1

    Well, its taken a little over five years to become a fixed feature of the New Zealand economy and its going to take a heap of effort to reverse, but John Key must be thoroughly pleased with himself. It wasn’t that long ago John Key was talking about his legacy. I can’t help but feel the most accurate would be something along the lines of: “for he so loved the underclass that he made grew it mightily.” Ashpuhirrational, indeed.

  2. gnomic 2

    Nobody rising to this bait? Perhaps the troll contingent can’t find anything to argue with here. Where is the Hooton when you need him? Hmmm, no, that’s inconceivable. However he ia always popping up on National Radio telling the world how well the NZ economy is doing. The truth is there is no recovery, at best a dead cat bounce. And there isn’t going to be one with fuel at $100 a barrel or whatever the current figure is. And hark! is that the sound of the wheels falling off again as (horror) CHINA SLOWS DOWN!

  3. fabregas4 3

    And the Herald frames it like this –

    “The NZ labour market is showing gradual improvement as unemployment edges up, wage growth stays subdued and more people look for work”.

    And on Q&A on Sunday Mr Tindall of the Warehouse talks about 500 people applying for a job at his Manukau Store – lazy buggers!

    • bad12 3.1

      Yes there’s obviously 1000’s more than 500 unemployed in Auckland, how dare they all not apply for a couple of jobs at the Warehouse…

      • fabregas4 3.1.1

        There was one job. Almost better off staying home and buying your lotto ticket.

  4. McFlock 4

    Building a blighted future…

  5. Richard Down South 5

    That 48000 is on top of how many kiwis who have moved overseas in that time?

  6. KJT 6

    Meanwhile Australia is talking about a recession.

    I.E. Growth rates dropping to about the same as they have been here, under National.

    Funny it is occurring just as Australia is creeping more and more into the neo-liberal paradigm.

    Maybe it is just coincidence? Right!

    • srylands 6.1

      ‘Funny it is occurring just as Australia is creeping more and more into the neo-liberal paradigm.”

      What ?

      It has devoted the last 6 years to undoing the gains of the previous 20 with some stupid policies – reckless spending and regulation – that is the problem.

      • KJT 6.1.1

        Comedy gold.

        After the latest fuckup in NZ due to lack of regulation, oversight and independent verification.?

        To go with the many others.
        leaky homes.
        Rena.
        Pike river.
        Etc Etc.

        While we escaped the worst of the GFC due to Keating’s tight regulation of the Aussie banks and Cullen’s foresight.

        And we see the failure of privatisations in both NZ and Australia.

        Weren’t we just talking about Melbourne’s public transport before and after privatisation.
        A success story, was it?

  7. KJT 7

    Still waiting for that brighter future Douglas promised us, if only we sacrificed our wages, cut taxes, sold everything, and made everything user pays.

    Waiting………….

    Waiting……………………….

    Waiting……………………………………………………………………….

    • srylands 7.1

      You are missing the counter factual – without the changes we would be a mixture of Spain and Samoa.

      We have matching problem – there are severe labour shortages in many areas. Hence the thousands of skilled migrants pouring into the country.

      • tricledrown 7.1.1

        to replace the thousands leaving

      • Colonial Viper 7.1.2

        1) your Spain and Samoa references betray your lack of economic intelligence. We should be tracking along side Australia, as we did for most of the 20th century. They were smart enough not to go feral neo liberal like we did, however.

        2) there’s no “matching problem”, just employers and a government who can’t be fucked developing young Kiwis because they consider our youth as a business cost, not as an investment in the nation’s future.

        • srylands 7.1.2.1

          “We should be tracking along side Australia, as we did for most of the 20th century. They were smart enough not to go feral neo liberal like we did, however.”

          WRONG – Australia did much more than NZ on economic reform for the 25 years 1983 – 2007. Rudd kind of stopped it and Gillard went backwards fiscally and on LM reform, but they were small setbacks viewed over 30 years.

          This what the Economist said in 2003 (quoted by Kerr, R below)

          “[Australia’s] economic success owes much less to recent windfalls than to policies applied over the last 20 years before 2003. Textbook economics and sound management have truly worked wonders.”

          Australia had deeper and further reforms than NZ. The difference is that they did them steadily over 25 years. NZ had two spurts that were relatively short.

          Critically economic rationalism is accepted in Australia. The silly debates that we see in these threads would be laughed at – rightly so. Look at privatisation – a policy that is widely accepted in Australia where share ownership is now widespread. I was totally astounded at the anti privatisation rubbish in NZ when I moved here.

          As Martin Parkinson said (again quoted by Kerr R below)

          “importantly, structural reform is not a one-off – it is a process, not an event. Without continued effort the gains that were made can be eroded over time, particularly given the long lags between reforms and measured productivity improvements.

          Contrast the widespread acceptance in Australia of the importance and benefits of its reform programme with Helen Clark’s silly mantra about ‘the failed policies of the past’. But Australia is at risk, at least in the short term, of throwing away some of the gains. As an Australian colleague emailed me last week:

          … we are doing our best over the other side of the Ditch to close the gap. I think it is called the ‘winner’s curse’ and the government is doing pretty much everything it can to destroy the prize we have received by virtue of our endowments and the surging economies of China and India.”

          http://rogerkerr.wordpress.com/2011/06/02/the-state-of-the-australian-economy/

          We need to catch up with Australia – economically, on the policy front, and on educating the public to be economically literate. We could start by making economics compulsory at school.

          • vto 7.1.2.1.1

            We could start by making the fractional reserve banking Ponzi scheme compulsory at school.

            When you recognise that people are not a tradeable commodity and that current regulations governing wealth distribution in the community are all fucked up then you will be worth listening to.

            Otherwise you come across like an economist who sits at a desk in Wellington all day and there have been people doing that in Wellington since at least 1984. Look where it has got us. Good on ya, keep it up……

          • Paul 7.1.2.1.2

            Ah Roger Kerr is your source…

          • Colonial Viper 7.1.2.1.3

            Shitlands – your version of neoliberal economics is and always has been both a mind poison and a fiction based on falsifiable mathematics.

            Totally discredited and promoted only by those who want to see wealth continue to be driven upwards to the top 1%.

            One other thing: you do not speak for Australia, you little creep.

            • Rosetinted 7.1.2.1.3.1

              Is srylands wealthy then, or just aspirational?

              Keep at ii, Sr.ylands develop your sneer, but remember the put-down line from A Fish called Wanda.
              Jamie Lee Curtis told Kevin Kline he was as simple as a gorilla and he countered ‘But I can’t be, I read Nietzsche. So that proves I’m better than a gorilla. Gorillas don’t read philosophy.’ Jamie says, ‘Yes they do, they just don’t understand it.’ (Replace Nietzsche with Economics and the punchline works.)

              • Colonial Viper

                Srylands is a neoliberal propagandist. His target are the people who have a dangerous mix of guillibility, moderate intelligence, and preference for simplistic models of the world.

                • framu

                  what i love most about the neo-liberal cheerleaders…

                  (well apart from the fact that their theories are so blatantly based on a premise that doesnt work in the real world),

                  …is that their championing of the theoretical, non-alturistic, rational individual completely ignores that for humans to even have the spare time to think up economic theories in the first place, we had to have the evolutionary influence of altruism and community.

                  Cant really invent much when where all chasing our own mammoth

                • Rosetinted

                  CV
                  I guess the three things can describe most of us at some time, but the danger is when they all occur at the same time, when extra cognitive and analytical effort is needed.

            • srylands 7.1.2.1.3.2

              “One other thing: you do not speak for Australia, you little creep.”

              Yes, I do.

              • framu

                are you kevin rudd?

                Keep it up. Every day your comedy routine gets better

              • muzza

                So you are a fairfax media stooge then?

              • Sable

                Srylands I’m an Australian (dual citizen) and no you don’t little man.

                • srylands

                  “rylands (sic) I’m an Australian (dual citizen) and no you don’t little man.”

                  Yes. I do.

              • Murray Olsen

                I know plenty of Australians who disagree with everything you write. I have had the fortune of knowing a couple of libertarian idiots with severe personality disorders who agree with you. They tend to be the sort who think that a men’s urinal is an appropriate place for a political discussion, probably because it’s about the only place their victim won’t run away from them. I apologised for the trickledown on the shoes of the last idiot who tried it.

                Australia does not have the feral neoliberal environment that you love so much, although state Liberal governments are doing their best to impose it. With a bit of luck, they’ll keep getting sacked for corrupt and inappropriate behaviour before they can do too much damage.

                You speak for the worst in Australia, indeed, the worst in the human heart. Neoliberalism is a disease, not a cure.

          • Colonial Viper 7.1.2.1.4

            We need to catch up with Australia – economically, on the policy front, and on educating the public to be economically literate. We could start by making economics compulsory at school.

            Everyone please laugh at Shitlands suggestion that Economics should be taught more widely eg in schools. The real evidence is that Economics is a dying subject, being slowly cut out of curricula and excised from university degrees, and good thing too:

            Forty years ago today, that any student who enrolled in an undergraduate degree at the Faculty of Economics at Sydney University in 1971 had to complete four year-long courses in economics, out of a total of ten such courses: Microeconomics and Quantitative Methods in the first year, Macroeconomics in the second, and International Economics in the third.

            Now in 2011, the Faculty of Economics and Business evicted the economics discipline into the Arts Faculty, and the economics-free entity renamed itself as University of Sydney Business School. There is now just one compulsory semester-long economics subject (Economics for Business Decision Making) in any Bachelor of Commerce degree at Sydney University, out of 24 such subjects – and that pattern is replicated across the globe. Economics has declined from 40 per cent of any business-oriented degree to 4 per cent in 40 years. For a profession obsessed with linear regression, it has suffered a near-perfect linear regression of its own.

            Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/7/8/economy/self-cannibalisation-economics#ixzz2bH8ZmbRs

            • srylands 7.1.2.1.4.1

              Oh crap. Economics has been going down hill at Sydney uni for years – because the faculty was polluted by left wing nut jobs.

              and of course it represents a declining force in business training – it is no longer very important for such training. You obviously know nothing about economics!

              Try looking at the preeminent universities that teach economics – ANU, Princeton, MIT. You have no idea what you are talking about – quoting a reactionary rag like the Business Spectator! You must be desperate.

              The numbers are not important – it is quality that counts. I can assure you that in NZ and Australian Government agencies that advise these Governments, there is a strong, and growing demand for top economists.

              You have no idea what you are talking about.

              • vto

                ” I can assure you that in NZ and Australian Government agencies that advise these Governments, there is a strong, and growing demand for top economists.”

                Can you not put two and two together?

                • srylands

                  um yes – there is a strong market for economists. Markets rule.

                  • vto

                    um no – the entire debate, comprising this thread and others you have participated in and then run away from, goes right over your head. You are brainwashed man, that’s how you come across.

                    Here is one example of you exposing yourself as unthinking inexperienced and captured by whoever ‘wrote the last report’. You need to get out. http://thestandard.org.nz/reaction-to-housing-policy/#comment-672171

                    As for markets ruling claim – well also we went through that the other day too before you ran away when it became apparent you are nothing but a slave trader http://thestandard.org.nz/this-gives-me-heart/#comment-671537

                    you are a long way from showing a base understanding of anything outside whatever the fuck it was you were taught. best you get back to Zimbabwe gosman.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Markets rule.

                    Ahhhh bow to the Neoliberal God.

                    • vto

                      Yes, he also didn’t seem to appreciate that the reason governments have done worse over the last few decades is precisely because they listen to economists.

                      …there be a mist rolling in ….

                  • Rosetinted

                    No really its not markets that rule. It’s a close-knit tribal group who choose economic methods that will advance their return from the economy. It is a response by those who have the most moral hazard to increase their opportunities and the ability to manipulate the attempts to limit sanctions. Further along it may develop into a full-blown Mafia (Cosa nostra in the USA) or a parallel organisation.

                    Strangely and hopefully ironically, there is a restaurant that calls itself the Cosa Nostra in Thorndon that must be near Parliament.

              • Colonial Viper

                You obviously know nothing about economics!

                Correct. I don’t buy into your pious Neoliberal Religion.

              • Sable

                ANU employs lot of left and right wing “nut jobs” as you call them srylands. Kevin Rudd is a ANU grad and hes a leftie. Stop talking nonsense and maybe we will start taking you seriously.

              • KJT

                “because the faculty was polluted by left wing nut jobs.”

                Translated: The religious, neo-liberal, chicken entrail gazers, who called them selves economists, were replaced by people whose views explained what is happening in the real world..

          • tricledrown 7.1.2.1.5

            schrilands Kerr wrote a lot of unmitigated Bullshit.and propaganda!
            Australia was much more considered in what economic changes they did while NZ just blindly went ahead full steam ahead damaging many areas of our economy.
            the car industry is just one example of roger Kerr,s BS.
            Another is state governments purchasing agreements where they purchase locally made.
            Defence purchases where possible

          • KJT 7.1.2.1.6

            More magical thinking, or just total ignorance?

          • Sable 7.1.2.1.7

            Oh God srylands is quoting Roger Kerr, the rabid neo-lib. Mate, you belong on whale oils site not this one. No one here is buying that man’s bullshit.

            As to Australia I lived there for eight years and its absurd to compare it to New Zealand. They have Asia as an economic umbrella and the mining industry has propped up their economy (at least til now). Their last far right leaning government was horrendously neo-lib and did a lot I believe to usher in the current economic decline they are experiencing.

            Howard undercut wages, made it easier to treat workers as a casual commodity which of course means people have less money to spend on good and services. His next act of stupidity was to slash funding to public (not private) schools and universities whilst increasing fees effectively “dumbing down” the population. Australia now has the dubious honour of being one of the top ten most expensive places to study in the world.

            They are in the crapper along with us and its unlikely they will be doing well anytime soon.

      • vto 7.1.3

        give it up srylands, you still think people are commodities for trading.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.3.1

          And if you consider people tradeable commodities, you can option them, use them as collateral, create derivatives, securitise and mortgage them.

          An elite of vampire capitalists treating the rest of the human race like a feedstock and a food stock.

      • Draco T Bastard 7.1.4

        We have matching problem – there are severe labour shortages in many areas.

        Actually, I’m reasonably sure that we don’t have such labour shortages. There was an article about it a few years ago. People qualified for a range of jobs didn’t get employed for one reason or another and then the employers went and employed someone from overseas. Interestingly enough, the overseas employees always seemed to be somewhat cheaper than the NZers.

        • srylands 7.1.4.1

          Interestingly enough, the overseas employees always seemed to be somewhat cheaper than the NZers.”

          You are obviously not an employer. You have no clue. Just look at the MBIE labour shortages website. No I am not providing a link. You seem to think that all this stuff just gets made up.

          • Colonial Viper 7.1.4.1.1

            Of course there are labour shortages: NZ employers are hopeless at workforce planning, refuse to invest in their staff, and want top skills but only pay developing world wages.

            • vto 7.1.4.1.1.1

              There is the ‘is’

              And there is the ‘why’

              Linking the two is where gosman is all at sea.

            • muzza 7.1.4.1.1.2

              Crying out loud, lets just leave this little trollop to himself…

              Look at the nonsense he is posting, can you imagine the self esteem issues he must have, ot be up so late, then so early just to ensure the disruption!

          • KJT 7.1.4.1.2

            Labour shortages are entirely self inflicted, by employers who know they can avoid training people and/or paying competitive wages just by bleating to the immigration department about skills shortages.

            I am qualified in three areas where there are supposed skill shortages and seen it first hand, for decades.

            One, my original qualification, which requires a very high level of skills. (More than ten years training and experience).
            New Zealand companies have not trained anyone for thirty years and they pay comparatively less than Singapore, Australia, USA and much of the third world. Not only that, in New Zealand you have to put up with third world safety standards and working hours, barely competent managers, and the people New Zealand employers take on, with dodgy qualifications, because they are cheaper.

            It is, of course, on the list of severe skill shortages.

            The only people they can get, are those near the end of their working life who want a retirement job close to home, those who want the, still highly regarded, NZ qualifications, (Though National are doing their best to change that) people with dodgy qualifications that are not accepted elsewhere and immigrants aiming for Australian residency.

            It is puzzling that they think they have to pay millions to get managers and directors, not a rare skill, to do their jobs, then think they can get competent people with rare skills for peanuts.

            http://kjt-kt.blogspot.co.nz/2011/04/kia-ora-corporatism-and-neo-liberalism.html
            “Many corporations and State or private enterprises run despite management, not because of them. In fact the constant parade of new brooms trying to make a name for themselves, with rapid changes and cost cutting, cause competent staff to resign and demoralise the rest.”

            In Christchurch Fletchers limit the amount they pay qualified builders to a maximum of $45 an hour. (It seems, the market is only allowed to decide, for, gouging landlords, failed politicians, and corporates such as Fletchers).
            For that you have to pay your own accommodation, tools, work vehicle and all your other costs. Accommodation in Christchurch alone can swallow up half of that. In Auckland I was getting $35 an hour, building, as wages, ten years ago. Queensland they get twice that. And houses are still cheaper to build, with NZ materials, over there.

            The good tradesmen, I know, are getting jobs as quantity surveyors and insurance assessors, in Christchurch, at twice the pay, while we import incompetents from overseas. Another leaky building scandal in the making when the buildings these semi-skilled immigrants put up, fail.

            Then there is the desire to employ untrained immigrants at slave labour rates instead of training the local kids.
            Don’t even get me started on the fuckup that is apprenticeship training since the neo-liberals destroyed it.
            Plenty of young people around who are just busting to get an apprenticeship in a trade. Which is where subsidies should be going, instead of to dead end burger flipping jobs.

          • Sable 7.1.4.1.3

            Srylands you rely on government stats and resources that are horribly biased and cherry pick in term of the information they provide and withhold. Labour shortages are often used as an excuse to import cheap foreign labour undercutting New Zealanders rates of pay. I used to work in the exec recruitment space and I can tell you much of its a “myth” based,once again, on trumped up stats and half baked employer survey’s. I remember numerous cases of skilled people who came into NZ who met the labour shortage criteria and then had a hell of a hard time finding work.

            If you insist on posting here try being less gullible and stop taking everything you are spoon fed by this and prior governments and the mainstream media at face value.

          • Sable 7.1.4.1.4

            I’ve been an employer at one time srylands and imported labour is often cheaper and sometimes good. Its also sometimes very bad, qualifications that are hard to verify, manufactured work histories and more. Cheaper yes better quality than Kiwis? In my experience mostly “not true”-simply put like all things in life you get what you pay for.

  8. Lanthanide 8

    “The number of unemployed is still up 46% since National took office. That’s 48,000 Kiwis who would rather be working.”

    What’s the accompanying population growth over the same time period?

    • Bunji 8.1

      Over the same period the number of employed has increased by… less than 9000 (or 0.4%) to 2,236,000.

      So yes, 57,000 extra Kiwis wanting to work, 48,000 of them without jobs.

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.1

        Hi Bunji. Jobs are only created when there is increased spending and sales occurring in the economy. That could be from either private sector spending or public sector spending.

        If unemployment levels are too high for our liking there is a very simple proximal cause. Not enough spending and sales are occurring in the economy. People need to stop talking about frikkin “unemployment” (which is merely the most obvious symptom) and start talking about the lack of spending and sales (which is actually just another symptom but one level deeper).

        Politicians have a very simple question to answer next: are they OK with the current levels of unemployment, and if not, how are they going to increase spending and sales in the economy. My preference is for government to become the employer of last resort.

        Clark and Cullen had a real easy method to increasing spending and sales in the economy. Allow the private sector to gorge itself on debt to the maximum, thereby creating massive amounts of cash availability in the economy. Cullen then scooped up lots of that debt created cash, and moved it from the private sector to the public sector – voila – “creating” the much vaunted Government surpluses that Labour supporters are so proud of, to this day.

        In the long run of course this economic model is doomed to fail. Employment can only increase if spending and sales i.e. consumption of goods and services increase. Not workable forever on our very finite planet.

        • Bunji 8.1.1.1

          Employment isn’t a 1:1 with “growth” (particularly domestic growth) which in turn isn’t entirely linear with consumption.

          Working for an exporter as I do, increasing employment will relate more to export growth than domestic. And as I work in software this is minimal consumption increase associated with that growth (personally rather than for my company, whose hi-tech mechanical equipment does involve consumption).

          And that’s before you look at inequality’s effect on employment, where I may be able to employ 1 more executive or 20 more factory workers at some big businesses.
          The 20 more employees will be much better for the economy / long-term growth of the business, but a lot of corporates tend to prefer the extra executive (who can then work out how to reduce wage costs to justify his salary…)

          But yes, we do probably need to stop being addicted to growth in a finite world… If we followed Keynes we should all be only working 15 hours/week by this point, which would certainly help with unemployment…
          But no, we’re addicted to consumption and want ever more stuff, so need to earn ever more, so need to work ever more – even if it results in our fellow citizens unemployment & poverty.

          But it’ll take a lot of work to reshape the economy in a new low-consumption model and our ethics/desires to match that radically.

          • Macro 8.1.1.1.1

            totally agree.
            The “growth” economic model that the western world has been following since the beginning of the industrial era has now reached its peak in the developed world. “Growth” now is almost purely financial, and is created mainly by banks who with unrestricted lending make big on the rest of society.
            As you correctly observe our economy is no longer based upon need and as a mechanism of equitable distribution of resources, but upon consumption. Growing the pie no longer implies that we all get a bigger share… that’s only for the uber-rich. Unfortunately the gosmans and srylands of this world totally fail to understand that they are simply the useful idiots of the wealthy.

      • Lanthanide 8.1.2

        That’s not the population growth figure, though.

        For example, people leave the workforce as well.

        • Bunji 8.1.2.1

          The population growth figure (150,000 – feel free to look all these up on stats.govt.nz or infoshare yourself…) will include lots of retired people and children/youths, so this figure is much more relevant. But yes, there are those who have removed themselves from the workforce entirely – not least all those who have gone to Australia.
          They would all make the unemployment figure much worse, not better…

          • Macro 8.1.2.1.1

            ….and the ones who no longer can stand the indignity and bullshit of going thru the winz process week after week with the only prospect of non-jobs totally unsuited to them, so remove themselves from the “workforce” and live on someones couch or where-ever.

  9. DavidC 9

    “Jobs are only created when there is increased spending and sales occurring in the economy. That could be from either private sector spending or public sector spending.”

    That is a lie.

    • KJT 9.1

      Bullshit David.

      It is, demand, that creates jobs.

      http://www.alternet.org/story/155288/the_real_job_creators%3A_everyday_americans,_not_the_1

      As the USA has made shockingly apparent over the last couple of years.

      Jobless recovery, a familiar term to you?

      • Colonial Viper 9.1.1

        And when we strip away this etheric thing called “demand”, it boils down to (in our current economic system) spending and sales in the economy. Whether it is private sector or public sector spending and sales.

        Spending and sales decrease, unemployment will rise. Spending and sales increase, unemployment will fall.

    • muzza 9.2

      David C

      Off you go then, explain why it’s a lie!

      Do you understand what money is?

      Do you understand what debt is?

    • Rosetinted 9.3

      DavidC
      You’re a bit of a tease. You put up a snappy statement and then run off to slave at your job and leave everyone on tenterhooks. Do you know how uncomfortable that is? We look forward to some elucidation of your enigmatic comment. Yours faithfully, Socrates United Team Leader

  10. Winston Smith 11

    Brighter future? Well me and the wife are doing better now then under Labour, does that count?

  11. tricledrown 12

    Schrilamds most car manurfacturing countries subsidize their car industries
    Mainly for strategic reasons.
    For without the ability to mass produce armament you place your country in a very weak position
    Waiting for another country to ship weaponary leaves ones own country vulnerable.
    That’s why Obama admin bailed out GM and Chrysler
    I suppose under your free market Aus and the US could just order its military machinery from China at half tje price.
    The same reason with open free
    access to agricultural markeys will never happen.

  12. infused 13

    A funny topic since aussie is going in to recession. Their personal and corp taxes will be up by year end.

    “On other matters relevant to expats and worth mentioning in this issue, net migration inflows to New Zealand are soaring but this is mainly because of the long-anticipated turning of the migration cycle between NZ and Australia as discussed further on. This process is likely to continue for a couple of years and that means not only will we fairly soon see the annual net migration gain move above the ten year average of 11,000 but perhaps peak closer to 30,000 than 20,000. The housing market implications are clear – especially for Auckland which generally receives about 50% of New Zealand’s migrants.”

    http://tonyalexander.co.nz/brain-gain-nz/brain-gain-sections/nz-looking-better-than-australia/

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