Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
National 44 (down 7), Labour 34 (up 5), Greens 14 (up 4).
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments
The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 136 comments
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…
Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, December 9th, 2012 - 56 comments
After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.
Written By: - Date published: 6:07 pm, December 2nd, 2012 - 121 comments
Individual polls are nothing to get too excited about, it is the trend over time that matters. That said, the TV1 and 3 News polls tonight were both good news for Labour and Shearer.
Written By: - Date published: 8:37 am, July 30th, 2012 - 90 comments
Yet more evidence that women are the smarter sex.
Written By: - Date published: 7:21 am, June 11th, 2012 - 120 comments
The last three polls have all been good for the Left. I’d like to be able to point you to a poll of polls to have a look at the trend, but both Curia and Pundit are stuck in an April time warp.
Update: Great to see the Pundit poll of polls up to date again – check it out.
Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, May 19th, 2012 - 21 comments
Another poll to add to current mix. Not a big shift, but in the right direction, and getting the right kinds of headline. And here’s another headline that isn’t going to help the Nats – the wage gap with Australia is growing at the rate of $1 a month.
Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, April 8th, 2012 - 195 comments
Two recent pieces in The Herald draw opposite conclusions from recent polls (one of them, alas, is drivel). Matt McCarten asks if National’s free fall, and the rise of the Greens, foreshadows a Green led government in 2014…
Written By: - Date published: 9:40 am, April 2nd, 2012 - 40 comments
A TV1 poll yesterday had Key falling as preferred PM, but no significant change for the major parties.
Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, November 28th, 2011 - 140 comments
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments
The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%. The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%. I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments
Labour is down in two recent polls (albeit margin of error), but over all the news is good!
Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, November 4th, 2011 - 53 comments
Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front. Don’t panic! The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls. The Left needs to see movement soon – time’s running out fast – but it isn’t a surprise not to see it yet.
Written By: - Date published: 12:50 pm, November 2nd, 2011 - 39 comments
NRT on the issue that is most important to Kiwis. It isn’t the economy.
Written By: - Date published: 8:25 am, October 3rd, 2011 - 69 comments
What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!) In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.
Written By: - Date published: 7:32 am, August 24th, 2011 - 73 comments
A couple of polls have now confirmed that on key issues voters prefer Labour policy over National. When push comes to shove in November, will Kiwis vote for the style that they like, or the substance that they want?
Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, August 13th, 2011 - 6 comments
Very little change over the last three Roy Morgan polls. Which suggests to me that voters still aren’t really paying attention.
Written By: - Date published: 6:29 am, July 18th, 2011 - 138 comments
The latest ONE News / Colmar Brunton poll is bad for Labour, and not great for the Left. But it isn’t a verdict on Labour’s CGT proposal – the polling period finished before the policy was announced.
Apparently the undecided in this poll was 14%. I wonder why that was missed out of the reporting?
Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, April 22nd, 2009 - 30 comments
UMR has just released a poll [PDF link] measuring support for a supercity. Stuff reports on it under the headline “Voters back Auckland supercity”: Though the poll’s sample of just 483 is small, it is the first real indicator of support for the supercity concept, with 45 percent of Aucklanders in favour, and 43 percent […]
Written By: - Date published: 9:46 am, September 18th, 2008 - 33 comments
Under the headline “National MP ‘least prefered’ in own website opinion poll” the Kapiti News reports that Nathan Guy trails Darren Hughes 5% to 95% in his own Facebook poll. Comments on the poll include: I don’t trust Nathan Guy to work properly for all the people of Kapiti and Horowhenua. I’ve heard nothing from […]
Written By: - Date published: 5:24 pm, July 29th, 2008 - 20 comments
Should Labour be worried about today’s poll in the Herald which contrary to other recent polls showed the gap between the parties rising? Colin Espiner doesn’t seem to think so, suggesting: I wouldn’t take much notice of the Herald DigiPoll. This one’s even worse than the last one. It was taken over THREE WEEKS and interviewed […]
Written By: - Date published: 11:35 am, May 17th, 2008 - 190 comments
As we all know the latest Fairfax poll has shown a huge lead for the National Party. Now I’m of the opinion it’s probably a rogue poll and we could argue that point (and methodology, and trends, etc) until the cows come home but I’m interested in something else. If this poll was hypothetically the […]