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Posts Tagged ‘polls’

Key’s support ebbing

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 am, September 12th, 2014 - 66 comments

key hands clean

National have gambled everything on “Team Key”. They may yet wish that they hadn’t.

The Big Lie in action

Written By: - Date published: 12:30 pm, September 5th, 2014 - 13 comments

spin

This morning Rob Salmond did a great post about the “big lie” – the spin coming from the Right that Labour hasn’t concentrated on policy, just dirty politics.

Like clockwork, David Farrar has a post up about the latest polls, suggesting “Their focus on hacked e-mails instead of policy  is backfiring.”

I think that most New Zealanders…

Written By: - Date published: 12:35 pm, August 28th, 2014 - 16 comments

DP cvr FIN.indd

Our PM is fond of telling us all what we think. In the wake of Dirty Politics he is working it overtime, telling us all that we believe his spin. Interesting then to get some actual data on what (extrapolating from a sample) most New Zealanders really do think. Many thanks to the Horizon polling people for putting this up on line.

Roy Morgan bounces left

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments

dart-board-thumb

National 44 (down 7), Labour 34 (up 5), Greens 14 (up 4).

Mixed news

Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, July 19th, 2013 - 151 comments

dimpost poll of polls 2011 2013

The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left. A second high result for National, but Labour’s vote holding steady after difficult weeks.

Informal GCSB poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:20 am, July 14th, 2013 - 41 comments

gcsb-poll

gcsb-poll

Polls and rogues

Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments

dart-board-thumb

Two polls tonight with very different numbers. They can’t both be right – so which one?

Polling merry-go-round

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments

dartboard-thumb

The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.

That ‘ol margin of error

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments

dart-board-thumb

There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of the two most recent polls, it’s just noise – the margin of error. But the underlying trend is still good for the Left…

Poll of polls looking good

Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 136 comments

turei shearer

Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…

And Fairfax makes three

Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, December 9th, 2012 - 56 comments

dartboard-thumb

After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.

Two good polls for Labour and Shearer

Written By: - Date published: 6:07 pm, December 2nd, 2012 - 121 comments

david_shearer_4f1f0c24be

Individual polls are nothing to get too excited about, it is the trend over time that matters. That said, the TV1 and 3 News polls tonight were both good news for Labour and Shearer.

Encouraging polls

Written By: - Date published: 2:53 pm, September 24th, 2012 - 69 comments

dart-board-thumb

Encouraging polls in both NZ and America.

Coincidence?

Written By: - Date published: 8:37 am, July 30th, 2012 - 90 comments

woman-graduate

Yet more evidence that women are the smarter sex.

Trendy polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:21 am, June 11th, 2012 - 120 comments

falling-graph

The last three polls have all been good for the Left. I’d like to be able to point you to a poll of polls to have a look at the trend, but both Curia and Pundit are stuck in an April time warp.

Update: Great to see the Pundit poll of polls up to date again – check it out.

Polls and elections

Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, May 19th, 2012 - 21 comments

crystal ball 2

Another poll to add to current mix. Not a big shift, but in the right direction, and getting the right kinds of headline.  And here’s another headline that isn’t going to help the Nats – the wage gap with Australia is growing at the rate of $1 a month.

Will the Greens lead the next government?

Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, April 8th, 2012 - 195 comments

Green Party logo cropped to g

Two recent pieces in The Herald draw opposite conclusions from recent polls (one of them, alas, is drivel). Matt McCarten asks if National’s free fall, and the rise of the Greens, foreshadows a Green led government in 2014…

TV1 Poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:40 am, April 2nd, 2012 - 40 comments

dart-board-thumb

A TV1 poll yesterday had Key falling as preferred PM, but no significant change for the major parties.

The long slide

Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, February 20th, 2012 - 65 comments

key-fail

According to the latest 3 News poll. National’s long slide has begun. Key’s popularity has also fallen to its lowest level yet as PM…

Bugger the polls

Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, November 28th, 2011 - 140 comments

dart-board

Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election.  Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone.  Didn’t happen.  The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%.  They need to rethink their methods.

Main parties down minor parties up

Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments

dart-board-thumb

The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%.  The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%.  I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls.  It’s going to be an interesting week.

Good news bad news polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments

dart-board

Labour is down in two recent polls (albeit margin of error), but over all the news is good!

TVNZ and Herald polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, November 4th, 2011 - 53 comments

Tortoise-Hare

Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front.   Don’t panic!  The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls.  The Left needs to see movement soon – time’s running out fast – but it isn’t a surprise not to see it yet.

NRT on the most important issue

Written By: - Date published: 12:50 pm, November 2nd, 2011 - 39 comments

no-right-turn-thumb

NRT on the issue that is most important to Kiwis.  It isn’t the economy.

A week of polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:25 am, October 3rd, 2011 - 69 comments

dart-board-thumb

What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!)  In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.

Substance vs style

Written By: - Date published: 7:32 am, August 24th, 2011 - 73 comments

key catwalk

A couple of polls have now confirmed that on key issues voters prefer Labour policy over National.  When push comes to shove in November, will Kiwis vote for the style that they like, or the substance that they want?

Only 56%?

Written By: - Date published: 7:45 am, August 23rd, 2011 - 55 comments

rosie

According to one poll 56 percent of Labour voters say Labour won’t win.  Good on them I say.

No news is no news

Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, August 13th, 2011 - 6 comments

dart-board

Very little change over the last three Roy Morgan polls.  Which suggests to me that voters still aren’t really paying attention.

Polls and policies

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 28th, 2011 - 159 comments

goff-beehive

Much ado in the commentariat about the latest Farifax poll, another poor result for Labour.  But some of these commentators could do to brush up on their history…

Bad poll but not for CGT

Written By: - Date published: 6:29 am, July 18th, 2011 - 138 comments

dart-board

The latest ONE News / Colmar Brunton poll is bad for Labour, and not great for the Left.  But it isn’t a verdict on Labour’s CGT proposal – the polling period finished before the policy was announced.

Apparently the undecided in this poll was 14%. I wonder why that was missed out of the reporting?

Lost in translation

Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, April 22nd, 2009 - 30 comments

UMR has just released a poll [PDF link] measuring support for a supercity. Stuff reports on it under the headline “Voters back Auckland supercity”: Though the poll’s sample of just 483 is small, it is the first real indicator of support for the supercity concept, with 45 percent of Aucklanders in favour, and 43 percent […]

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