Written By: - Date published: 6:45 am, September 12th, 2014 - 66 comments
National have gambled everything on “Team Key”. They may yet wish that they hadn’t.
Written By: - Date published: 12:30 pm, September 5th, 2014 - 13 comments
This morning Rob Salmond did a great post about the “big lie” – the spin coming from the Right that Labour hasn’t concentrated on policy, just dirty politics.
Like clockwork, David Farrar has a post up about the latest polls, suggesting “Their focus on hacked e-mails instead of policy is backfiring.”
Written By: - Date published: 12:35 pm, August 28th, 2014 - 16 comments
Our PM is fond of telling us all what we think. In the wake of Dirty Politics he is working it overtime, telling us all that we believe his spin. Interesting then to get some actual data on what (extrapolating from a sample) most New Zealanders really do think. Many thanks to the Horizon polling people for putting this up on line.
Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, July 19th, 2013 - 151 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left. A second high result for National, but Labour’s vote holding steady after difficult weeks.
Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments
Two polls tonight with very different numbers. They can’t both be right – so which one?
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments
There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of the two most recent polls, it’s just noise – the margin of error. But the underlying trend is still good for the Left…
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 136 comments
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…
Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, December 9th, 2012 - 56 comments
After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.
Written By: - Date published: 2:53 pm, September 24th, 2012 - 69 comments
Encouraging polls in both NZ and America.
Written By: - Date published: 7:21 am, June 11th, 2012 - 120 comments
The last three polls have all been good for the Left. I’d like to be able to point you to a poll of polls to have a look at the trend, but both Curia and Pundit are stuck in an April time warp.
Update: Great to see the Pundit poll of polls up to date again – check it out.
Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, May 19th, 2012 - 21 comments
Another poll to add to current mix. Not a big shift, but in the right direction, and getting the right kinds of headline. And here’s another headline that isn’t going to help the Nats – the wage gap with Australia is growing at the rate of $1 a month.
Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, April 8th, 2012 - 195 comments
Two recent pieces in The Herald draw opposite conclusions from recent polls (one of them, alas, is drivel). Matt McCarten asks if National’s free fall, and the rise of the Greens, foreshadows a Green led government in 2014…
Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, February 20th, 2012 - 65 comments
According to the latest 3 News poll. National’s long slide has begun. Key’s popularity has also fallen to its lowest level yet as PM…
Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, November 28th, 2011 - 140 comments
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments
The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%. The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%. I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.
Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, November 4th, 2011 - 53 comments
Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front. Don’t panic! The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls. The Left needs to see movement soon – time’s running out fast – but it isn’t a surprise not to see it yet.
Written By: - Date published: 8:25 am, October 3rd, 2011 - 69 comments
What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!) In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.
Written By: - Date published: 7:32 am, August 24th, 2011 - 73 comments
A couple of polls have now confirmed that on key issues voters prefer Labour policy over National. When push comes to shove in November, will Kiwis vote for the style that they like, or the substance that they want?
Written By: - Date published: 7:45 am, August 23rd, 2011 - 55 comments
According to one poll 56 percent of Labour voters say Labour won’t win. Good on them I say.
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 28th, 2011 - 159 comments
Much ado in the commentariat about the latest Farifax poll, another poor result for Labour. But some of these commentators could do to brush up on their history…
Written By: - Date published: 6:29 am, July 18th, 2011 - 138 comments
The latest ONE News / Colmar Brunton poll is bad for Labour, and not great for the Left. But it isn’t a verdict on Labour’s CGT proposal – the polling period finished before the policy was announced.
Apparently the undecided in this poll was 14%. I wonder why that was missed out of the reporting?
Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, April 22nd, 2009 - 30 comments
UMR has just released a poll [PDF link] measuring support for a supercity. Stuff reports on it under the headline “Voters back Auckland supercity”: Though the poll’s sample of just 483 is small, it is the first real indicator of support for the supercity concept, with 45 percent of Aucklanders in favour, and 43 percent […]