Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, May 19th, 2012 - 21 comments
Another poll to add to current mix. Not a big shift, but in the right direction, and getting the right kinds of headline. And here’s another headline that isn’t going to help the Nats – the wage gap with Australia is growing at the rate of $1 a month.
Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, April 8th, 2012 - 195 comments
Two recent pieces in The Herald draw opposite conclusions from recent polls (one of them, alas, is drivel). Matt McCarten asks if National’s free fall, and the rise of the Greens, foreshadows a Green led government in 2014…
Written By: - Date published: 9:40 am, April 2nd, 2012 - 40 comments
A TV1 poll yesterday had Key falling as preferred PM, but no significant change for the major parties.
Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, February 20th, 2012 - 65 comments
According to the latest 3 News poll. National’s long slide has begun. Key’s popularity has also fallen to its lowest level yet as PM…
Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, November 28th, 2011 - 140 comments
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments
The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%. The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%. I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments
Labour is down in two recent polls (albeit margin of error), but over all the news is good!
Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, November 4th, 2011 - 53 comments
Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front. Don’t panic! The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls. The Left needs to see movement soon – time’s running out fast – but it isn’t a surprise not to see it yet.
Written By: - Date published: 12:50 pm, November 2nd, 2011 - 39 comments
NRT on the issue that is most important to Kiwis. It isn’t the economy.
Written By: - Date published: 8:25 am, October 3rd, 2011 - 69 comments
What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!) In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.
Written By: - Date published: 7:32 am, August 24th, 2011 - 73 comments
A couple of polls have now confirmed that on key issues voters prefer Labour policy over National. When push comes to shove in November, will Kiwis vote for the style that they like, or the substance that they want?
Written By: - Date published: 7:45 am, August 23rd, 2011 - 55 comments
According to one poll 56 percent of Labour voters say Labour won’t win. Good on them I say.
Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, August 13th, 2011 - 6 comments
Very little change over the last three Roy Morgan polls. Which suggests to me that voters still aren’t really paying attention.
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 28th, 2011 - 159 comments
Much ado in the commentariat about the latest Farifax poll, another poor result for Labour. But some of these commentators could do to brush up on their history…
Written By: - Date published: 6:29 am, July 18th, 2011 - 138 comments
The latest ONE News / Colmar Brunton poll is bad for Labour, and not great for the Left. But it isn’t a verdict on Labour’s CGT proposal – the polling period finished before the policy was announced.
Apparently the undecided in this poll was 14%. I wonder why that was missed out of the reporting?
Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, April 22nd, 2009 - 30 comments
UMR has just released a poll [PDF link] measuring support for a supercity. Stuff reports on it under the headline “Voters back Auckland supercity”: Though the poll’s sample of just 483 is small, it is the first real indicator of support for the supercity concept, with 45 percent of Aucklanders in favour, and 43 percent …
Written By: - Date published: 9:46 am, September 18th, 2008 - 33 comments
Under the headline “National MP ‘least prefered’ in own website opinion poll” the Kapiti News reports that Nathan Guy trails Darren Hughes 5% to 95% in his own Facebook poll. Comments on the poll include: I don’t trust Nathan Guy to work properly for all the people of Kapiti and Horowhenua. I’ve heard nothing from …
Written By: - Date published: 5:24 pm, July 29th, 2008 - 20 comments
Should Labour be worried about today’s poll in the Herald which contrary to other recent polls showed the gap between the parties rising? Colin Espiner doesn’t seem to think so, suggesting: I wouldn’t take much notice of the Herald DigiPoll. This one’s even worse than the last one. It was taken over THREE WEEKS and interviewed …
Written By: - Date published: 11:35 am, May 17th, 2008 - 190 comments
As we all know the latest Fairfax poll has shown a huge lead for the National Party. Now I’m of the opinion it’s probably a rogue poll and we could argue that point (and methodology, and trends, etc) until the cows come home but I’m interested in something else. If this poll was hypothetically the …
Written By: - Date published: 11:31 am, May 17th, 2008 - 24 comments
This morning’s Fairfax poll is bad news for Labour, with National easily having the numbers to govern alone. Following the hugely popular rail buyback it’s hard to see what could have caused a swing of this size, so it’ll be interesting to see if the next few polls show a similar trend. The Greens and …
Written By: - Date published: 10:41 am, April 30th, 2008 - 32 comments
Today’s Herald Digipoll has National up 2 points and Labour down 2, a result the Herald describes as the “Nats pulling away”. As ever you can’t read too much into a single poll, but the pattern continues to show National coming off the highs in the mid 50s it reached earlier this year and Labour …
Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, April 24th, 2008 - 32 comments
No real surprises in the latest Roy Morgan poll, but Gary Morgan’s hilariously bad political analysis continues. You’ll remember in the last Morgan poll our man Gary put the thirty percent increase in the Greens’ support down to Earth Hour, and this week he’s at it again: the Greens are down 2.5% to 6.5% – …
Written By: - Date published: 12:06 pm, April 21st, 2008 - 25 comments
One News reports on their Colmar Brunton poll showing a 19 point lead to National and Key ahead in the preferred PM stakes: Labour continues to trail National – There’s more bad news for Labour in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll. It’s trailing well behind National but the results suggest the governing party …
Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, April 21st, 2008 - 9 comments
The two political polls on TV last night say far more about the limitations of political polling than they do about the likely makeup of the next Parliament. Last night’s TVNZ poll, conducted by New Zealand’s least reliable polling company, showed National gaining ground, Labour down in the dumps and the Greens dropping out of …
Written By: - Date published: 2:18 pm, April 14th, 2008 - 35 comments
Now this is looking better: As usual Gary Morgan’s analysis is laughable, attributing the thirty percent increase in the Greens’ support to… Earth hour. Yes, Earth hour. Stick to the polling Gaz, and leave the punditry to the pundits.
Written By: - Date published: 10:44 am, March 29th, 2008 - 56 comments
The New Zealand Herald reports that Labour has almost halved National’s lead in its latest DigiPoll survey, following a month “memorable for slip-ups and lacklustre performances by leader John Key.” Labour’s managed to claw its way up towards the 40% mark and that’s good news for the Left, which is now back within striking distance of …
Written By: - Date published: 3:39 pm, March 17th, 2008 - 11 comments
TVNZ had another Colmar Brunton poll last night. The gap between National and Labour remains substantial, but has closed by four points since last poll. UPDATE: In a comical twist that bodes poorly for Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne, it seems Colmar Brunton has the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party now polling as high as both …
Written By: - Date published: 2:40 pm, March 10th, 2008 - 27 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, covering the period February 18 – March 2. The poll shows National still able to govern alone, but after John Key’s performance last week it’s looking increasingly unlikely that National will be able to hold onto its 15 point lead until polling day. A few more points for …
Written By: - Date published: 12:23 pm, March 3rd, 2008 - 21 comments
As Helen Clark and John Key continue to jockey for top spot as preferred PM, Mao Zedong has made his first appearance in a Herald Digipoll. Media commentators are pointing to this as evidence that these polls are largely worthless. National aren’t so philosophical. Insiders indicate that National are far from happy with Mao’s appearance …
Written By: - Date published: 11:29 am, March 3rd, 2008 - 31 comments
The latest Herald-Digipoll shows National continuing its huge lead over Labour. It’s a rather strange looking Parliament, with the Greens dropping below the threshold with only 4.4% of the vote. I do find that hard to believe though, given the same poll had the Greens at 9% just a month ago. Either way, it shows …
Written By: - Date published: 11:27 am, March 3rd, 2008 - 13 comments
The Marae-Digipoll has the political commentators all excited over what has been accepted fact in the blogosphere for some time: the Maori party will win all the Maori seats and will probably be Kingmaker. The poll shows that Maori voters overwhelmingly favour Maori Party candidates and are evenly split on giving their party vote to …
Comments