That ‘ol margin of error

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags: , ,

I posted recently on the noise in polls, and why is is important to take a long term view rather than get excited about any individual poll. Cases in point, what are we to make of the two most recent results? One News on the 17th:

National bounces up in poll

National has bounced up five points in the poll to 49%, its highest approval rating in almost a year. …

Labour and the Greens are both down two points to 33% and 11% respectively.

And the Farifax today:

National no longer a sure winner – poll

Today’s poll puts National on 44.9 per cent – 1.3 percentage points down on our last poll in December, and back to where it was last August.

But the big story is Labour’s slow rise under Mr Shearer. The party is up 1.9 percentage points to 36.3 per cent, 3.7 per cent higher than in August.

There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of these results, it’s just noise – the margin of error. I wish the whole “commentariat” would get this message and stop getting so wound up about individual results! In the second piece linked above the authors (Watkins and Vance) do, thankfully, comment on the longer trend:

Labour has now closed the gap with National to just 8.6 percentage points, compared with 20 points on election night in 2011. With Labour allies the Greens making up the shortfall on 10.7 per cent, the poll points to a much tighter race in 2014.

(Those who are hyper-critical of the current Labour leadership please take note!) In a related piece today Watkins does (hurrah!) set out the important facts:

Trend good for Labour but there’s a way to go

In politics, they say, the trend is your friend. That would make the next election Labour’s to lose on today’s Fairfax Media-Ipsos political poll. It confirms a trend of Labour slowly positioning itself to lead the next government.

But that tells only half the story. Because National’s vote, if you use the 2008 election as your yardstick, appears largely undented. …

If there is a story behind the poll numbers it is that many of the undecided vote appear to be soft National voters who have started peeling away, perhaps disillusioned that after four years they are feeling no better off. But when pushed, many still lean toward National. So Labour still has a long way to go.

Come on Labour – give those undecided voters a reason to tick the red box…

32 comments on “That ‘ol margin of error ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Pete 1
    20 February 2013 at 9:34 am

    The other factor is the motivation to vote in 2014. Turnout should increase if people believe the election isn’t a foregone conclusion like 2011. If the narrative continues to build that this is a genuine horserace, then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    The opposition needs to build on this and demonstrate that they are a government-in-waiting. It needs to find a way to seize the political discourse for itself rather than just naysaying or non-committal me-tooism. Shearer seems to communicate far more effectively when there’s solid policy to build his arguments around. I think his main flaw is a failure to anticipate the points raised in an interview or by the government. Proper preparation prevents piss poor performance.

  2. Polish Pride 2
    20 February 2013 at 9:37 am

    Yes it is good for the left and although many on here won’t like it if you get behind Shearer and provide support rather than division the trend will not only continue it might even increase. Then when a difference can be made you can start to reshape things. For those wanting to do this there are two key things that you must do for someone you want to enact change.
    The first – identify the pain point for the people you are wanting to enact change. This is as simple as highlighting the pr9oblem and how it affects them.
    Second provide the solution – especially in an environment where those needing to change, don’t have the time or the inclination to think about it. Show how your solution will be better for all.

    Q: if Shearer and Robertson start listening to the party members are those of you that want to get rid of them still going to want them gone.
    Q2: Are you also prepared to listen to them (or is there no need because you already have have all the answers…..)

    Everything happens for a reason and there are lessons to be learned from everything including David Cunliffes demotion. The question is what are the lessons? What was the greater purpose?

  3. Colonial Viper 3
    20 February 2013 at 9:42 am

    Labour has now closed the gap with National to just 8.6 percentage points, compared with 20 points on election night in 2011. With Labour allies the Greens making up the shortfall on 10.7 per cent, the poll points to a much tighter race in 2014.

    The average of the 4 Roy Morgans before the Nov 2011 election gave an answer very close to the final e-day result for Labour. IIRC that same formula for the Roy Morgan overestimated National by a couple of percentage points, points which finally went to the Greens and NZF on e-day.

  4. bad12 4
    20 February 2013 at 9:56 am

    Any left leaning voters reading this post who voted for NZFirst at the last election should know that ‘now’ is the time to leave your support for that Party in history’s dustbin as they have fulfilled their purpose and begin to think about supporting one of the party’s further left…

  5. aerobubble 5
    20 February 2013 at 10:03 am

    The colour of Key’s gib.

    Conference center paid for by pokies; so global
    association of ethical companies isn’t going to
    have their conference there! I mean good
    people worked hard all over the world, for
    example to get rid of pokies, and they are going
    to balk at the idea that the conference buildings
    is paid for by harvesting the good works of
    good people like them, in reducing pokies,
    in reduction in pokies being reversed to pay
    for the buildings they are conferencing in.

    Globally, Unionists don’t have kids who are of an
    age to see the movie the Hobbit. So Key attacking
    basic union rights unnecessarily to keep the Hobbit
    movie here had no downside, even unionists will love
    the movie despite it harming their interests.

    50%, off the top of Key’s head, that’s how
    much chch land holders will get back. But we know
    businesses who held land, who brought land,
    who got business insurance for loss of business,
    who lost money would get 100% of their loses
    without one peg, one spade of work on the land.
    So no businesses held ChCh empty lots? Paid for them?
    Was paid out 100%?
    Its all very well councils writing off the losses
    of their empty unsold lots, the government can live with
    100% loses, its so large its self-insured against
    the loses, but the little guy who gets caught
    between having brought a lot and having a building
    put up, who can’t get insurance arbitrarily hands over
    50%. There’s no argument about being paid out, the
    argument is why the unfair arbitrariness of the outcome,
    how government is insured, and denies citizens full
    insurance cover arbitrarily. Now everyone in NZ
    has to Keyify their lots, and put up a mail box
    the moment they buy a lot, Key’s legacy to NZ culture.
    Farce.

    Sorry, but Key isn’t all that smart, he’s reactive,
    demanding, and must get his way and spin victory.
    Well when he was reaping huge salaries and bonuses
    and articulating (as he clearing has had much
    experience while working as a currency trader banker).
    The lack of an political echo in the pub after work
    has led to a little money thug who would not know a good
    business argument against his policies, as he is imbued with
    an ideological of relentless revolutionary conservatism
    take no prisoners.
    We are the collection of our past experience, we
    can’t change just because need requires it, when its
    so core for Key to spout neo-liberalism to keep his
    former career path its passes him by when his ideology
    finally has to bear scrutiny.

    Campbell live does a better job of opposing the govt, and
    still manages to look balanced and serving the nation.

  6. dancerwaitakere 6
    20 February 2013 at 1:27 pm

    “Those who are hyper-critical of the current Labour leadership please take note!”

    See here is where it all starts falling apart. Much of the criticism of the Leadership is not actually about poll results, the heart of it is in the failure of the caucus to live up to their values.

    Lets say Labour gets into Government, I find myself in a position where I don’t believe that it would be an extremely competent Government. In fact Shearer, Robertson and Ardern all have no actual cabinet experience. There are lots of professionals who are able to say the right things (well, sometimes…) but they have been schooled to be politicians, not representatives of workers.

    Labour needs to show us with their List in 2014 that their government is going to be progressive and more radical than the Governments of the last 25 years, in a lefty sort of way.

    What good is a Labour Government if it is not.

    • Colonial Viper 6.1
      20 February 2013 at 1:46 pm

      Indeed, even at 31% or 32% Labour have a very good chance of forming the Government. But as you pointed out, what kind of Government will it be when the pressure of a growing deficit and stagnant growth starts biting harder.

  7. gobsmacked 7
    20 February 2013 at 1:55 pm

    Interesting tweet from David Shearer:

    “Tune in to #nzqt today to see me set out why John Key is donkey deep in the Sky City deal. Key isn’t vindicated, he’s implicated.”

    OK, I’ll tune in to Question Time. I hope he can deliver.

    • gobsmacked 7.1
      20 February 2013 at 3:32 pm

      Shearer did fine on the questions (as did Turei, Norman and Peters) but the new Speaker is blatantly biased and inept. There will be a lot more aggro in Parliament now.

      Unfortunately Shearer later blotted his copybook by outing his previously unknown addiction … he declared – “We, the problem gamblers of New Zealand …”. Oops.

    • David H 7.2
      20 February 2013 at 5:15 pm

      And Shearer always asks such interesting questions. NOT.

  8. Richard29 8
    20 February 2013 at 2:21 pm

    “Those who are hyper-critical of the current Labour leadership please take note!”

    To be fair – I don’t think any of those people are concerned that the electorate doesn’t like Labour – I think they have legitimate concerns that Shearer is not a great communicator and that come the election campaign when the heat is on he might crash and burn in front of the cameras and hand victoy to National.

    What do I mean by crash and burn? Giving responses like this to straightforward questions:

    “Zac: Is there room for MPs with homophobic views in the Labour Party?
    Shearer: Oh look yes, absolutely, there are some, when I say homophobic I don’t think we’ve got any homophobes there, but, there are some people who don’t agree with, ah, um, unsection (?) marriage, you mean you know,a marriage between two, two people of the same sex, um, that’s ah, that’s not ah a a majority but um look you know at the same time as we, you know we’ve been at the forefront of these things, we’ve also had people who didn’t agree with it, there’s plenty of room for them as well.”

    Something very similar happened in 2011 – the theory the whole way through was that people should ignore the low level of support because come the election campaign people would warm to Goff and the election would be different. But people didn’t warm to him and support dropped in the lead up to the election.
    http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2012/11/19/labour-leadership-and-the-polls/

    Shearer is not a bad guy, but he isn’t half the communicator that Goff was, and Goff had his ass handed to him on election night 2011. I think what concerns people is the leadership and strategy people from the 2011 defeat remain largely unchanged.

  9. Olwyn 9
    20 February 2013 at 3:02 pm

    On the day that David Shearer was chosen as Labour Party leader, and right wing journalists joyously popped champagne corks while many Labour supporters cried into their beers, I became disheartened. Nothing has happened since to reverse that feeling. There have been occasional glimmers of hope, which have duly been dashed. I suspect the upcoming reshuffle will fall into that category, but (perhaps foolishly) still hope that I am wrong. This is not because “I just prefer Cunliffe.” It is because I prefer the NZ Labour Party principles over unspecified principles. I prefer a party that galvanises its natural supporters over a party that alienates them, while allowing its natural opponents to sigh with relief. And I prefer a party whose authority rests on widespread consent rather than the vicious kneecapping of talented colleagues. Given that these concerns have not been dispelled, I am not moved by a few percentage points in the polls.

  10. Addison 10
    20 February 2013 at 3:55 pm

    So relieved to hear the next government will be Labour lead. We can all relax now in the knowledge that the Nats will be out next year?

  11. Anne 11
    20 February 2013 at 8:20 pm

    And I prefer a party whose authority rests on widespread consent rather than the vicious kneecapping of talented colleagues.

    .

    The elephant in the room Anthony.

    Until David Shearer faces up to this problem, Labour is going to be seriously hamstrung in getting its message across to those undecided voters. I put it to you there are a significant number of member activists who are waiting to see if he will reinstate David Cunliffe to the front bench. I can’t predict exactly what will happen if he doesn’t, but the anger and bitterness created late last year is likely to re-surface and be a millstone around his neck. The concerns about the way Cunliffe – and others – were treated are genuine, and based on the underlying Labour principles of fairness and justice. If Shearer delivers some justice, then he will reap due reward. It’s up to him now.

    • Murray Olsen 11.1
      21 February 2013 at 10:14 pm

      If he can’t even treat talented members of caucus with fairness and justice, what hope does he have of forming a stable coalition government? On present form, I’d have to say he’d work more naturally with Winston First than either Mana or the Greens. In that case, the only real difference to a NACT repeat would be less fightback from the unions.

  12. 4wardthinking 12
    20 February 2013 at 9:39 pm

    I agree with Anne. I would hope Shearer was showing a good deal more strategic nous and looking to unite the party rather than engage in ongoing tribal warfare. There’s obviously 10 people in that caucus who don’t have confidence in him. There’s absolutely no sign that he’s doing anything to bring the factions together – surely that is what any “good” leader would do. Also, with Cunliffe, he is still one of the best minds and speakers on the Labour side and goodness knows we could do with some spark right now. That speech he did on the IMF was fantastic. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C7er64lx9A. Surely, it’s about time Shearer started working to his party’s strengths, rather than playing the same old politics?

    • mac1 12.1
      20 February 2013 at 10:31 pm

      “There’s obviously 10 people in that caucus who don’t have confidence in him.” I’ve seen that figure thrown around in what was supposedly a secret ballot. What source have we for this figure? Or is it some sort of urban myth?

      • Colonial Viper 12.1.1
        20 February 2013 at 10:49 pm

        I’ve heard the 10 figure around the traps. From sources at both 1 and 2 degrees of separation from caucus.

        However, the only person who would really know is whoever counted the votes out of the secret ballot, I presume the President or Gen Sec.

        • the pigman 12.1.1.1
          21 February 2013 at 1:41 am

          [blockquote]I’ve heard the 10 figure around the traps. From sources at both 1 and 2 degrees of separation from caucus.[/blockquote]

          Whaleoil?

          • Colonial Viper 12.1.1.1.1
            21 February 2013 at 1:50 am

            If you think he’s 1 or 2 degrees of separation from the Labour Caucus, sure, why not.

        • mac1 12.1.1.2
          21 February 2013 at 6:01 pm

          Caucus- separation 1- separation2- me. In other words, I know a bloke who knows a bloke who knows a bloke in caucus?

          • mac1 12.1.1.2.1
            21 February 2013 at 6:14 pm

            Tried to edit- got redefined as undefined.
            @ Colonial Viper:
            Caucus- separation 1 – separation 2- you

            In other words, you know a bloke who knows a bloke who knows a bloke in caucus, and now you’re telling me?

      • Jbug 12.1.2
        20 February 2013 at 10:51 pm

        Well someone has put it out there. My guess is Grant Robertson’s supporters. He’s the only one who has anything to gain from it. Doesn’t help Cunliffe’s cause at all having that public and certainly doesn’t help Shearer.

  13. 4wardthinking 13
    20 February 2013 at 10:54 pm

    What’s telling is that the party hierarchy hasn’t denied the reporting of that figure – certainly no-one is saying it was unanimous or that it was less. Very telling.

    • the pigman 13.1
      21 February 2013 at 1:46 am

      Correct me if I’m wrong (and please link), but I don’t think it’s been published as fact anywhere reputable.

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.1
        21 February 2013 at 1:51 am

        Yes because seeing it on a bit of paper makes it true

        • 4wardthinking 13.1.1.1
          21 February 2013 at 9:44 pm

          Sure, it’s only been in the newspaper and on blogs – but then if you think about it – that is not the kind of rumour that Shearer would surely want out there if it were incorrect. His trust lieutenants would surely be spinning an alternative truth if there was one? However, there has only been deathly silence.

        • the pigman 13.1.1.2
          22 February 2013 at 1:26 am

          No, but actually being published by a news organization with shareholders/some form of responsibility, as opposed to coming via Whalespew’s “tipline”, would make it something that Labour might feel compelled to respond to.

          I am not devaluing the legitimacy of blogs, but do you honestly think Labour should have to officially respond to every bit of black rumour that gets smeared on blogs?

  14. 4wardthinking 14
    22 February 2013 at 5:33 pm

    No, but it has been reported by Fairfax too. Does that count as an organisation with shareholders? And not just once either. So I’m guessing they feel pretty confident about their information.

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    Having written, taught and worked for the US government on issues involving unconventional warfare and terrorism for 30-odd years, two things irritate me the most when the subject is discussed in public. The first is the Johnny-come-lately academics-turned-media commentators who … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 day ago

  • Despair – construction consenting edition
    Eric Crampton writes – Kainga Ora is the government’s house building agency. It’s been building a lot of social housing. Kainga Ora has its own (but independent) consenting authority, Consentium. It’s a neat idea. Rather than have to deal with building consents across each different territorial authority, Kainga Ora ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Coalition promises – will the Govt keep the commitment to keep Kiwis equal before the law?
    Muriel Newman writes – The Coalition Government says it is moving with speed to deliver campaign promises and reverse the damage done by Labour. One of their key commitments is to “defend the principle that New Zealanders are equal before the law.” To achieve this, they have pledged they “will not advance ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • An impermanent public service is a guarantee of very little else but failure
    Chris Trotter writes –  The absence of anything resembling a fightback from the public servants currently losing their jobs is interesting. State-sector workers’ collective fatalism in the face of Coalition cutbacks indicates a surprisingly broad acceptance of impermanence in the workplace. Fifty years ago, lay-offs in the thousands ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • What happens after the war – Mariupol
    Mariupol, on the Azov Sea coast, was one of the first cities to suffer almost complete destruction after the start of the Ukraine War started in late February 2022. We remember the scenes of absolute destruction of the houses and city structures. The deaths of innocent civilians – many of ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    1 day ago

  • Babies and benefits – no good news
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Ten years ago, I wrote the following in a Listener column: Every year around one in five new-born babies will be reliant on their caregivers benefit by Christmas. This pattern has persisted from at least 1993. For Maori the number jumps to over one in three.  ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?
    Climate change is expected to generate more and more extreme events, delivering a sort of structural shock to inflation that central banks will have to react to as if they were short-term cyclical issues. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours, as of 9:16 am on Thursday, April 18 are:Housing: Tauranga residents living in boats, vans RNZ Checkpoint Louise TernouthHousing: Waikato councillor says wastewater plant issues could hold up Sleepyhead building a massive company town Waikato Times Stephen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the public sector carnage, and misogyny as terrorism
    It’s a simple deal. We pay taxes in order to finance the social services we want and need. The carnage now occurring across the public sector though, is breaking that contract. Over 3,000 jobs have been lost so far. Many are in crucial areas like Education where the impact of ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    1 day ago

  • Meeting the Master Baiters
    Hi,A friend had their 40th over the weekend and decided to theme it after Curb Your Enthusiasm fashion icon Susie Greene. Captured in my tiny kitchen before I left the house, I ending up evoking a mix of old lesbian and Hillary Clinton — both unintentional.Me vs Hillary ClintonIf you’re ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago

  • How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023
    This is a re-post from Andrew Dessler at the Climate Brink blog In 2023, the Earth reached temperature levels unprecedented in modern times. Given that, it’s reasonable to ask: What’s going on? There’s been lots of discussions by scientists about whether this is just the normal progression of global warming or if something ...
    Skeptical Science
    2 days ago

  • Backbone, revisited
    The schools are on holiday and the sun is shining in the seaside village and all day long I have been seeing bunches of bikes; Mums, Dads, teens and toddlers chattering, laughing, happy, having a bloody great time together. Cheers, AT, for the bits of lane you’ve added lately around the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Ministers are not above the law
    Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • What’s the outfit you can hear going down the gurgler? Probably it’s David Parker’s Oceans Sec...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point  of Order first heard of the Oceans Secretariat in June 2021, when David Parker (remember him?) announced a multi-agency approach to protecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems and fisheries. Parker (holding the Environment, and Oceans and Fisheries portfolios) broke the news at the annual Forest & ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Bryce Edwards writes  – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • Matt Doocey doubles down on trans “healthcare”
    Citizen Science writes –  Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • A TikTok Prime Minister.
    One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Texas Lessons
    This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's pick 'n' mix of the news links at 6:06 am
    The top six news links I’ve seen elsewhere in the last 24 hours as of 6:06 am on Wednesday, April 17 are:Must read: Secrecy shrouds which projects might be fast-tracked RNZ Farah HancockScoop: Revealed: Luxon has seven staffers working on social media content - partly paid for by taxpayer Newshub ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Fighting poverty on the holiday highway
    Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • Bernard's six-stack of substacks at 6:26 pm
    Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • At a glance – Is the science settled?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Apposite Quotations.
    How Long Is Long Enough? Gaza under Israeli bombardment, July 2014. This posting is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • What’s a life worth now?
    You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Howling at the Moon
    Karl du Fresne writes –  There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Newshub is Dead.
    I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Seymour is chuffed about cutting early-learning red tape – but we hear, too, that Jones has loose...
    Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Will politicians let democracy die in the darkness?
    Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Was Hawkesby entirely wrong?
    David Farrar  writes –  The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election
    PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Criminal ecocide
    We are in the middle of a climate crisis. Last year was (again) the hottest year on record. NOAA has just announced another global coral bleaching event. Floods are threatening UK food security. So naturally, Shane Jones wants to make it easier to mine coal: Resources Minister Shane Jones ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth nearly $1 billion?
    Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Long Tunnel or Long Con?
    Yesterday it was revealed that Transport Minister had asked Waka Kotahi to look at the options for a long tunnel through Wellington. State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Smoke And Mirrors.
    You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • What is Mexico doing about climate change?
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The June general election in Mexico could mark a turning point in ensuring that the country’s climate policies better reflect the desire of its citizens to address the climate crisis, with both leading presidential candidates expressing support for renewable energy. Mexico is the ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • State of humanity, 2024
    2024, it feels, keeps presenting us with ever more challenges, ever more dismay.Do you give up yet? It seems to ask.No? How about this? Or this?How about this?When I say 2024 I really mean the state of humanity in 2024.Saturday night, we watched Civil War because that is one terrifying cliff we've ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Govt’s Wellington tunnel vision aims to ease the way to the airport (but zealous promoters of cycl...
    Buzz from the Beehive A pet project and governmental tunnel vision jump out from the latest batch of ministerial announcements. The government is keen to assure us of its concern for the wellbeing of our pets. It will be introducing pet bonds in a change to the Residential Tenancies Act ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The case for cultural connectedness
    A recent report generated from a Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) survey of 1,224 rangatahi Māori aged 11-12 found: Cultural connectedness was associated with fewer depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms and better quality of life. That sounds cut and dry. But further into the report the following appears: Cultural connectedness is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Useful context on public sector job cuts
    David Farrar writes –    The Herald reports: From the gory details of job-cuts news, you’d think the public service was being eviscerated.   While the media’s view of the cuts is incomplete, it’s also true that departments have been leaking the particulars faster than a Wellington ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On When Racism Comes Disguised As Anti-racism
    Remember the good old days, back when New Zealand had a PM who could think and speak calmly and intelligently in whole sentences without blustering? Even while Iran’s drones and missiles were still being launched, Helen Clark was live on TVNZ expertly summing up the latest crisis in the Middle ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal
    Costello did not pass on analysis of the benefits of the smokefree reforms to Cabinet, emphasising instead the extra tax revenues of repealing them. Photo: Hagen Hopkins, Getty Images TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • True Blue.
    True loveYou're the one I'm dreaming ofYour heart fits me like a gloveAnd I'm gonna be true blueBaby, I love youI’ve written about the job cuts in our news media last week. The impact on individuals, and the loss to Aotearoa of voices covering our news from different angles.That by ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Who is running New Zealand’s foreign policy?
    While commentators, including former Prime Minister Helen Clark, are noting a subtle shift in New Zealand’s foreign policy, which now places more emphasis on the United States, many have missed a key element of the shift. What National said before the election is not what the government is doing now. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #15
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 7, 2024 thru Sat, April 13, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week is about adults in the room setting terms and conditions of ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Feline Friends and Fragile Fauna The Complexities of Cats in New Zealand’s Conservation Efforts

    Cats, with their independent spirit and beguiling purrs, have captured the hearts of humans for millennia. In New Zealand, felines are no exception, boasting the highest national cat ownership rate globally [definition cat nz cat foundation]. An estimated 1.134 million pet cats grace Kiwi households, compared to 683,000 dogs ...

    Gareth’s WorldBy admin
    5 days ago

  • Or is that just they want us to think?
    Nice guy, that Peter Williams. Amiable, a calm air of no-nonsense capability, a winning smile. Everything you look for in a TV presenter and newsreader.I used to see him sometimes when I went to TVNZ to be a talking head or a panellist and we would yarn. Nice guy, that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Did global warming stop in 1998?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Did global warming stop in ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Arguing over a moot point.
    I have been following recent debates in the corporate and social media about whether it is a good idea for NZ to join what is known as “AUKUS Pillar Two.” AUKUS is the Australian-UK-US nuclear submarine building agreement in which … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago

  • No Longer Trusted: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    Turning Point: “What has turned me away from the mainstream news media is the very strong message that its been sending out for the last few years.” “And what message might that be?” “That the people who own it, the people who run it, and the people who provide its content, really don’t ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago

  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago

  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago

  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago

  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago

  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International Congress
    Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector.    "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Removing red tape to help early learners thrive
    The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tape
    Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationship
    Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister Lee
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.   Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ ties
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.  During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Antarctica New Zealand Board appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner.  The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Finance Minister travels to Washington DC
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.  “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlords
    The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being considered
    State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • New Zealand condemns Iranian strikes
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel.    “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says.    "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plans
    Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand Chair
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board.   “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti.  “I have asked her to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Roads of National Significance planning underway
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