web analytics

The Cunliffe bounce

Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, October 30th, 2013 - 26 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags:

Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. But we can try to look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls (including the Fairfax joke) to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.

Here’s the results (thanks to Curiablog for collecting the polls and making my life easier)

BC v AD polls(confusingly, the polls in each set are in chronological order with the most recent polls at the top, but the top set of polls came before the bottom set, sorry)

As you can see, there’s a real difference. Before Cunliffe, National average 47.1% to the Labour-Greens’ 44.4%. After David, that’s reversed with Labour-Greens averaging 47.4% to National’s 44.9%.

Labour is averaging nearly 4% more than it was under Shearer with half that increase coming from National, a quarter from the Greens, and the other quarter from the minors.

Of course, there’s statistical variation in a poll of polls, just as there is in an individual one, only less so. Still, the signs are pretty clear that there has been a Cunliffe bounce and a Labour-Greens government is now favourite for 2014.

Fairfax got one thing right: one swallow does not make a spring and one poll does not make a trend. But,looking at all the information together, it’s clear that there is a change in the air.

26 comments on “The Cunliffe bounce”

  1. Ad 1

    Wondered why I had called myself Ad

  2. karol 2

    I wish the MSM didn’t keep diverting attention away from the important issues with all this diversionary spin around polls.

    The lesson is that there are many MSM journos who will be looking for every opportunity to undermine Cunliffe and talk up Key.

    There needs to be an alternative strategy to engage the wider public in the issues of most importance to them and the country.

  3. Sable 3

    Mickey mouse MSM with their usual spin and lies…

  4. mark 4

    The Fairfax poll is such a joke. 21.9% of the public who were asked either refused to answer or said they didnt know. The real figure for the Nats is under 40%. What an absolute joke when over a fifth of all voters won’t give an answer. Makes the poll meaningless.

  5. Salmon 5

    This analysis ignores the two (positive) polls that happened after Shearer resigned, and before Cunliffe was elected leader. With those polls the “Cunliffe bounce” is probably better interpreted as the “new leader bounce”.

    A bounce after a new leader is elected is to be expected. The real question is whether we can sustain it.

  6. Steve 6

    Interestingly the Dom post hasn’t printed part of the poll which is available online, Time for a change of Government at 50.1%, No change 43.1%, Not sure 6.8% http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9339557/More-think-NZs-on-the-right-track-poll check out sentiment.

  7. BrucetheMoose 7

    If you ask anybody in marketing for telecommunications companies, they will tell you that it is a well known fact, that a higher number of National supporters own a landline nowadays than Labour for example. Do a poll door to door, you will get a completely different result. Of course, since Fairfax and National have been enjoying the benefits of pissing in each others pocket for the last few decades, neither will admit to this matter of phone ownership. I would, as Johnny says, take it all with a bucket of salt. Personally, given the ineptness, corruption and incompetence of this government, I would take it all with a truckload of salt. I put a similar comment on Stuff website. They didn’t allow it. No surprises really.

    • Francis 7.1

      Yep, both Fairfax and the One News (presumably the TV3 one as well) suffer from the landline bias. Roy Morgan at least utilises mobile phones. None the less, the working class voters are probably less likely to be able to participate in polls anyway, due to working very long (and odd) hours.

      Unfortunately, the latest Roy Morgan poll shows a 3% swing towards the right (1.5% off both Labour and the Greens, 0.5% onto National and 1.5% onto the Conservatives). Presumably due to the signals that the Conservatives will be in parliament at the next election. None the less, all the changes are within the margin of error, and the overall trend is still showing increasing Labour votes and decreasing National votes.

  8. Steve 8

    Interestingly the Dom post hasn’t printed part of the poll which is available online, Time for a change of Government at 50.1%, No change 43.1%, Not sure 6.8%. check out sentiment.

    • Tat Loo (CV) 8.1

      That not sure number is very low. This is a bad result for the incumbents, as it shows that attitudes are hardening fast.

  9. bad12 9

    What i have a look at a couple of times a week is the ‘gamblers’ over on ipredict, it’s an interesting read not necessarily for what it says about support for a Labour/Green Government but having to so to speak put the money where the mouth is,

    It makes an interesting gauge of just how confident National supporters are and at the moment it would seem that National supporters are only confident that they will not be getting a third term out of Slippery and Co,

    Did anyone else notice it, in the couple of days leading up to and including the long Labour weekend???,

    In what to me was an obviously orchestrated,(from the Beehive’s 9th floor), across the spectrum of all the media, print, radio, television, the politics we were all force fed was ‘Colon Craig and His Conservatives’,

    What other politician who is a virtual non-entity outside of Auckland’s North Shore can anyone of us remember getting a free publicity campaign this far away from an election,with Slippery the PM chiming in on the Conservatives side in the past 2 mornings on both TV and radio,

    What’s happening here is simple to see, this has all the hall-marks of National’s PANIC written deeply all over it, internal polling will have given National numbers to work off as far as the Conservatives go pre-free publicity campaign,

    National will use internal polling again in the next week to judge the success or not of having used the compliant mass media to attempt to manufacture a coalition partner and if they detect a rise in support for Colon Craig we can expect in the next year to be bombarded by the Tory media with stories which attempt to cement in the voters minds the Conservatives as Nationals coalition partner for a third term….

  10. BrucetheMoose 10

    If you ask anybody in marketing for telecommunications companies, they will tell you that it is a well known fact, that a higher number of National supporters own a landline nowadays than Labour for example. They know this, as such information is important for their target marketing. Do a poll door to door, you will get a completely different result. Of course, since Fairfax and National have been enjoying the benefits of pissing in each others pocket for the last few decades, neither will admit to this matter of phone ownership. I would, as Johnny says, take it all with a bucket of salt. Personally, given the ineptness, corruption and incompetence of this government, I would take it all with a truckload of salt. I put a similar comment on Stuff website. They didn’t allow it. No surprises really.

  11. tc 11

    Polls tell the story required by those publishing them mostly, it’s all about getting the disaffected third back into the booths in 2014.

    Do that and the NACT are way gone, alot of 2011’s spin was about the MSM telling folk to not bother it’s shonkey all the way especially after Goff had rattled him, cuppa tea, a police raid or 2 etc.

    With a few more showing up to vote, some better Lab candidates, and Mallard not leading the campaign in 2011 and we probably wouldn’t be having the assets flogged off now.

  12. SDCLFC7 12

    I still can’t get too excited by 35/36 points. The trend is good, but not really kicking goals or putting pressure on the government until we start seeing 38/39 consistently. It’s been 5 years since we’ve been at those numbers.
    And as a Labour voter who wants David Cunliffe to be the next PM, I’m not excited about working with a Green party at 12-14 points. How many MPs do you need when your only constructive areas of interest are energy, transport and the environment (Norman can flatter to deceive all he likes on finance but he has little to contribute there – especially when we can sell the electorate David Parker as Cullen Mark II).
    The middle will gravitate towards us if they see Labour as a Government in waiting not the Labour/Greens.
    If we’re at 40 points and the Greens at 6-8, then we can easily make up the remaining ground from the middle and have the right balance of votes to govern constructively with.

    • karol 12.1

      How many MPs do you need when your only constructive areas of interest are energy, transport and the environment

      Actually the Greens have also been leading on child poverty, social security, state housing, etc, etc.

      And I will vote for them to keep Labour from slipping too far to the right.

    • MrSmith 12.2

      “only constructive areas of interest are energy, transport and the environment”

      Sorry you forgot education, health, employment, etc also you forgot The Greens have been at-least behaving like an opposition for the last 5 years, so they deserve a large piece of the pie, Labour have been stumbling from one balls up to another till now, they just need to stay on their game because if they start fighting with the Green left we will end up with another 3 years of National.

      • tc 12.2.1

        +1 a solid lab/greens govt without the need for any others would be a great result.

        The greens deserve to land a few decent portfolios and shonkey can keep trying to paint them reds under the bed like his idol piggy, it just makes him look all the more desperate.

    • lloyd jordan 12.3

      trouble is labour has shown that it cannot be trusted via 1st lange then by clark, that is why there needs to be a strong minor party or parties presence, the country has had enough of the born to rule attitude by both the major parties

  13. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 13

    There was a Shearer bounce initially as well. They key is to not make it a bounce but a permanent state of affairs.

  14. The main poll is the election vote in 2014

  15. Ben 15

    Only thing is with the boundary changes we’re likely going to have to include the Conservatives on the Nat vote.

    However if Labour keeps momentum it shouldn’t matter. There should be another bounce out of conference hopefully.

  16. Delia 16

    These Polls are a plot. Years ago we had polls only three months out from the election…now they are used to cause widespread despair and stop people from thinking their vote counts.

  17. Tracey 17

    It seems to me that recent polls may be indicative of media coverage. Rightly govts get more coverage and labour enjoyed a bounce during its leadership campaign and definitely attracted more media coverage at that time. During an election campaign that coverage will grow again?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Budget ignores vital role of quality ECE
    Last night I watched a fascinating programme about the Otago University 45 year study of 1000 New Zealanders. It concluded that there are ways to intervene and support people who are at risk of becoming violent. One of the key… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    3 hours ago
  • More ice for Radio NZ in Budget
    Budget 2016 once again left our only public broadcaster, Radio NZ (RNZ), worse off. After eight years of funding freezes, you have to wonder if RNZ is being iced-out for ideological reasons. I believe public broadcasting is an important cornerstone… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    9 hours ago
  • Fisheries inquiry must be widened to include Trident
    The Government must widen its inquiry into the Ministry for Primary Industries to include its awarding of a company owned by Sanford and Moana Pacific Fisheries to monitor commercial fishing vessels, Labour’s Fisheries spokesperson Rino Tirikatene says. The Ministry for… ...
    11 hours ago
  • Government spend up on state house sell off
    The Government has spent $28.9 million and has 129 officials working on its misguided state house sell-off, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  “This is a scandalous waste of taxpayers’ money on a policy that won’t deliver a single extra… ...
    1 day ago
  • Housing crisis has huge impact on education
    The National Government’s failure to get on top of the housing crisis is having a major impact on the quality of education a lot of school kids are getting, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says.  “There are thousands of kids… ...
    1 day ago
  • Minister celebrates while arts organisations face cuts
    Maggie Barry was full of self-congratulations for her small arts announcement in the budget, ignoring the pain that a large number of organisations are facing due to her inaction, says Arts, Culture, Heritage spokesperson Jacinda Ardern.  “The Budget delivered a… ...
    1 day ago
  • Regions miss out again in Joyce’s Koru Lounge Fund
      The regions have missed out yet again with Steven Joyce offering just $10m a year for key regional development projects while trumpeting a bunch of re-heated announcements, says Labour’s Economic Development spokesperson David Clark. “The dairy downturn has put… ...
    2 days ago
  • Children’s Commissioner misses out in Budget
      The Office of the Children’s Commissioner has missed out on a much needed boost in this year’s Budget, meaning they will be forced to continue their reduced monitoring role of CYFs residences, says Labour’s spokesperson for Children Jacinda Ardern. … ...
    2 days ago
  • Communities miss out in Budget
    Budget 2017 has left community and NGO providers feeling exposed about the services they provide to vulnerable families especially in smaller towns and communities, says Labour’s Whānau Ora Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta. “Approximately $40m will go into Whānau Ora to work… ...
    3 days ago
  • Budget2016: Two Worlds
    Sometimes I feel as if I live in two worlds. The world created by the National Government where everything is great and they’re doing a great job and the world as seen through the eyes of child advocates, community workers,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    3 days ago
  • Parekura would be proud – MTS gets boost
    The Labour Party is ecstatic that the Māori Party have shown support for one of Labour’s proudest policies, says Labour’s Māori Broadcasting Spokesperson Peeni Henare.  “The Māori Television Service was launched in 2004 by the late Hon Parekura Horomia. ...
    3 days ago
  • Māori housing in state of emergency
    The Government needs to declare a state of emergency for Māori Housing, says Labour’s Māori Development spokesperson and Te Tai Tokerau MP Kelvin Davis. “The extra $3 million a year Māori Housing Network fund will not scratch the surface in… ...
    3 days ago
  • State house sell off in disarray after provider pulls out
     The Government should cancel its planned sell-off of state houses after the second big community housing provider pulled out leaving the process in disarray, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  “It is time for the Government to back away from… ...
    3 days ago
  • Nothing in Budget to help police to solve crime
    The Police Minister has failed to make communities safer with virtually no new money in yesterday’s Budget for police to address the appalling burglary resolution rates, says Labour’s Police spokesperson Stuart Nash.  “It’s a disgrace there’s no money or aspiration… ...
    3 days ago
  • Blog – Budget 2016: What about ordinary working people?
    Ordinary working New Zealanders don’t fare very well from this Budget. Setting aside the spin from the Government, it contains a lot to be concerned about and a fudging of the numbers. Green Party workplace relations spokesperson Denise Roche For… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    3 days ago
  • Real wages go backwards for next two years
    New Zealanders’ real wages will fall for the next two years as the cost of living outpaces forecast pay rises, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. “New Zealanders have been doing it tough for far too long. They expect… ...
    3 days ago
  • The Attack on Public Education – by a thousand cuts
    Budget 2016 is another step towards the free public education system being a memory from the past. The Budget freezes the operations grant for schools and does not sufficiently cover the real increase in numbers of students entering the education system.… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    3 days ago
  • The Attack on Public Education – by a thousand cuts
    Budget 2016 is another step towards the free public education system being a memory from the past. The Budget freezes the operations grant for schools and does not sufficiently cover the real increase in numbers of students entering the education system.… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    3 days ago
  • The give with one hand – take with the other Budget
    The Minister of Health has pumped out media releases to 20 District Health Boards heralding increases in funding for their regions, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King. “But when you add population growth and inflation into the figures you get… ...
    3 days ago
  • Budget offers no hope of fixing housing crisis
    The Budget’s underwhelming housing measures will give New Zealanders no hope that National is capable of fixing the housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “There isn’t a scrap of an idea to help desperate young Kiwi families into… ...
    4 days ago
  • How the budget fails new New Zealanders
    Greens co-leader James Shaw was absolutely correct to say the 2016 budget is just papering over the cracks. There’s nothing in this budget to increase wages, address inequal pay for carers or deal with the shocking pay rates and employment… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    4 days ago
  • Parents will pay more as school budgets frozen
    Parents will pay more for their kids’ education as a result of this year’s Budget after the Government froze operational funding for schools, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “This means schools are effectively going backwards. They will need to… ...
    4 days ago
  • Sticking Plaster Budget fails the test
    Bill English’s penultimate Budget fails to tackle the structural challenges facing the economy – a housing crisis, rising unemployment, underfunded health and creaking infrastructure, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “This Budget applies a sticking plaster to a compound fracture.… ...
    4 days ago
  • John Key fails middle New Zealand with no fix for housing crisis, more underfunding of health
    Middle New Zealand has again missed out in this year’s Budget with not a single fix for the housing crisis, and health and education woefully underfunded again, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “This Budget is just a patchwork… ...
    4 days ago
  • Labour Bill would back Kiwi jobs
    The Government’s $40 billion of buying power would go towards backing Kiwi businesses and jobs under a Labour Member’s Bill which will be debated by Parliament, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “My Bill – which was pulled from… ...
    4 days ago
  • Julie Anne Genter: My Budget 2016 wish is fairness
    When my parents first visited me in Auckland ten years ago, they remarked on how there were no homeless people on the streets. Coming from Los Angeles, they were used to seeing the impacts of horrendous inequality and a lack… ...
    GreensBy Julie Anne Genter
    4 days ago
  • Steffan Browning: Pesticide reduction and Organic Growth Strategy in Budget 2016
    Pesticide reduction The Budget is an opportunity for the Government to launch a pesticide reduction strategy that multiplies the Environmental Protection Authority’s (EPA) and the Ministry for Primary Industries’ capacity to reassess pesticides and other toxins.  The Agricultural Compounds and… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning
    4 days ago
  • Steffan Browning: Pesticide reduction and Organic Growth Strategy in Budget 2016
    Pesticide reduction The Budget is an opportunity for the Government to launch a pesticide reduction strategy that multiplies the Environmental Protection Authority’s (EPA) and the Ministry for Primary Industries’ capacity to reassess pesticides and other toxins.  The Agricultural Compounds and… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning
    4 days ago
  • Minister won’t fess up on wrong figures
    The Minister of Health was caught out telling porkies in Parliament today when he was asked about the number of people getting access to mental health and addiction services, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King. ...
    5 days ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    5 days ago
  • Budget 2016 and our LGBTQI communities
    LGBTI people make up about a tenth of our population, and our communities face a unique set of needs and challenges. These challenges are caused or exacerbated by discrimination, invisibility and barriers to appropriate support. We have a long way… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    5 days ago
  • Scrambled announcement policy on the hoof
    Paula Bennett’s scrambled desperate announcement that she will pay homeless people to move to the regions is just the latest evidence of the disarray this Government’s housing policy is in, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “This is policy… ...
    5 days ago
  • Police Minister admits resolution rates fall short of expectation
    Police Minister Judith Collins has admitted in Parliament current burglary resolution rates are not meeting the expectations of our communities, says Labour’s Police spokesman Stuart Nash “Out of 284 police stations in New Zealand in 2015, 24 stations recorded zero… ...
    5 days ago
  • Mojo Mathers: A better deal for animals in Budget 2016
    Currently we are failing animals in NZ. On the face of it farmed and domestic animals in this country have strong legal protection from abuse, cruelty and neglect. In reality it seems that only the very worst, most extreme cases… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers
    5 days ago
  • Metiria Turei: What we need from Budget 2016
    Every family deserves a warm decent home.  Everyone believes that. This housing crisis is just the latest consequence of a Government who puts the interests of the few wealthy people above the needs of NZ families.  Families are doing it… ...
    GreensBy Metiria Turei
    5 days ago
  • Dairy exports fall of 11%: Budget action on diversification needed
    Dairy exports have fallen 11 per cent compared to this time last year, a fall of almost $1.5b, showing the Government must take clear action on diversifying the economy in tomorrow’s Budget, says Labour’s Trade and Export Growth spokesperson David… ...
    5 days ago
  • Investors driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland
    Investors cashing in on skyrocketing Auckland house prices are driving families out of homes in South and West Auckland and causing homeownership rates in some of our poorest suburbs to plummet, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New analysis shows… ...
    5 days ago
  • Budget must deliver on paid parental leave
    Budget 2016 must deliver 26 weeks paid parental leave by April 2018 – anything less will be short-changing families, says Labour MP Sue Moroney. “My Bill which is before Parliament this afternoon has majority support and does just that. I… ...
    5 days ago
  • Key’s “brain fart” on tax cuts news to English
    John Key didn’t tell his own Finance Minister he was about to go on radio and announce he wanted $3b of tax cuts, just days after Bill English ruled them out, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “In Parliament today… ...
    6 days ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    6 days ago
  • What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 – A better start for our tamariki
    Ensuring the best start for our tamariki is a priority for me in everything I do. And so in Budget 2016, my first budget as an MP, I looking for the Government to make a real investment in the wellbeing… ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    6 days ago
  • Denise Roche: What I’m looking for in Budget 2016 Pt II
    Aotearoa’s new New Zealanders,  come to our country in vulnerable position: – often away from the culture, communities and families they know, sometimes in neighbourhoods without familiar faces and often encountering barriers to employment. With net migration at 50,000+ a… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    6 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    6 days ago
  • Equal Pay and Budget 2016
    The last few years we’ve seen equal pay for women flagged as an undefined risk in the budget. This year we should expect to see this, as well as budgeted money to deliver equal pay to caregivers and funding for,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    6 days ago
  • A great Budget would
    A great Budget would embrace the challenge of our polluted rivers and move the money away from justifying the status quo water rules into cleaning up waterways. A great Budget would take the Ministry for the Environment freshwater budget and… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    6 days ago
  • Budget building materials policy backfires
    On the eve of this year’s Budget official figures show Nick Smith’s Budget 2014 centrepiece to reduce the cost of building materials has backfired, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment officials have spent the… ...
    6 days ago
  • Smarter, Better, Cleaner, Stronger
    This Thursday Bill English will deliver his eighth Budget. Will it continue the trend of previous National budgets, making tertiary education less affordable, putting only token funds into innovation, and subsidising polluters? Budgets aren’t what they used to be. Once… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes
    7 days ago
  • Govt must come clean on tax cuts in Budget
    National is making a mockery of the Budget process by dangling the promise of tax cuts but failing to include them in the Budget, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “National’s tax cut promises have turned into a farce. One… ...
    1 week ago
  • Grant Robertson Pre-Budget Speech
    Today I want to talk about success. As we know success can come in many different forms, from the fact you all made it here at such an early hour on a Monday, for which I am very grateful, to… ...
    1 week ago
  • Budget must deliver for middle New Zealand
    The Government must ensure next week’s Budget stops the squeeze on middle New Zealand and delivers shared prosperity for all New Zealanders, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. The call follows new research commissioned by Labour that shows working… ...
    1 week ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere