Written By: - Date published: 2:55 pm, November 13th, 2008 - 190 comments
Categories: economy, john key, national/act government -
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Michael Cullen has released the latest economic and fiscal update, the one Key commented on in today’s papers but which he refused to reveal the details of to the public. Basically, it’s pretty bad news. How Key is responding or, rather, not responding to this first test is even worse news.
Since the Pre-election economic and fiscal update less than two months ago, the Treasury’s forecasts for economic growth in our top 20 trade partners have plummented – for example, next years’ projection has gone from 2.8% to just 1.8%. Commodity prices and export demand is expected to be hit significantly, leading to lower growth and a higher current account deficit. Unemployment is now predicted to hit 5.7% not 5.1% as in the PREFU and wage increases will be lower, perhaps below inflation. Lower tax revenue will see government debt blow out by another $5 billion on top of the so-called ‘decade of deficits’ projected in the PREFU.
The global financial crisis is not National/Act’s fault, just as it wasn’t the Labour-led government’s fault. But they do have a choice as to how they respond. National/Act’s plan seems to be to carry on as if nothing has happened, pushing through the same agenda that they announced months ago without modifications for changed economic situation. It’s worth noting that the cost of National’s tax package additional to Labour’s is about the same size as the increase in projected debt over the same period. In other words, National could prevent this debt blow out by cancelling its tax cuts for the rich. It won’t do so, of course. National should make the creation of useful jobs a priority, as Labour intended to do to keep benefit numbers and crime down, and income and tax revenue up. But it won’t do that, either.
We said it before the election and bears repeating now. It is not just the declared policies of a party that matter but their underlying ideology, the set of principles which shape their response to emerging issues. National might have presented that ‘Nice Mr Key’ facade and some appropriately moderate policies but underneath he is rightwinger leading a conservative party. His response already looks like being a typical conservative response – bury your head in the sand and hope everything turns out OK in the end. That is not the response we need right now.
Key’s ‘no worries, folks’ response to this latest update also makes me wonder if Key really has bitten off more than he can chew. Does he have the strength to disappoint his supporters when it is in the longer-term interests of New Zealand as a whole to do so? Does he have the leadership skills and courage to actively steer New Zealand through these difficult straits or will he grimly stick to the pre-laid course as the storm hits us? So far, he has tried to downplay the issue, he evidently hopes it will just go away. Well, it’s not just going to go away and if Mr Key is not up to the job of confronting it that is not just a problem for him, it is a problem for all of us.
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Ev I’m sorry I called you mentally unstable. I am not a qualified psychiatrist, although if I were I believe I would be qualified to diagnose you.
I’m not sure what it is you want. You call John Key a liar and slander him with non-facts and strange presumptions. Every post you write is about some obscure reference that some journalist made about him, which you claim John Key wrote himself, as proof of his lies.
John Key didn’t lie. It is my belief that either you know he is not a liar, in which case you are lying about him, which makes you a liar. If you do actually believe he is a liar, then it is my belief, although not a professional one, that you are mentally unstable.
I don’t mean to offend you Ev by saying you are mentally unstable. I am trying to help you. I don’t think it would be helpful for you to go and see a lawyer about this, because it will just be a waste of your money and your lawyer will laugh at you and think you are mentally unstable, and will then send you a big bill. If you have the money to spare, then I can suggest instead that you spend it on a psychiatrist, who will be able to help you with your mental problems, which involve either compulsive lying, or some other mental illness.
Tim,
1. We have produced crystal clear evidence that Kreiger left BT on or before Feb 1988. After working for Soros for a few months he left the industry altogether in June 1988.
2. The original H-Fee scheme was devised in or around Oct 1987. The first transaction took place in January 1988. (Please indicate if you accept this, or provide alternative evidence if you claim otherwise.)
3. When questions of his involvment in the H-Fee matter were of concern, Mr Key originally claimed to have to have left EMF “three months before any of these deals were devised”. (ie around June 1987)
4. Mr Key then later revised leaving date from EMF to June 1988, joining BT three months later in September 1988.
5. Key has claimed a close and lucrative working relationship with Krieger. The statements I have read about this, and the context they were written in strongly imply that this was while both men where working at BT… but evidently this cannot be so, because in the revised version of Key’s timeline they missed each other at BT by at least 9 months.
Eve, myself and others have previously provided numerous authorative links backing these statments. Please indicate if you accept them, or provide alternative links if you claim otherwise.
John Key didn’t lie.
Key may or may not have lied in this instance, dunno, not following this topic. But we do know for sure that he has lied on other matters (eg TranzRail shares), so it isn’t out of the question.
Redlogix – I promised myself I wouldn’t engage n this subject again. Just once more. I’ve suggested lots of reading material for Ev as her earlier post n this thread shows a complete lack of knowledge about markets generally and how investment banks work. I think you guys would also get more traction if you showed a bit of even handedness – where is your long winded and detailed critique of (say) Helen Clarke?
There were two H Fee transactions – the first involved only Elders Australia. The second went thru Elders NZ – After Key left. This is al on the public record.
Where does it say Krieger and Key had a close working relationship while both were at BT? Key has acknowledged two things- 1) he had a relationship with Krieger, 2) Key shorted the dollar after it was floated. He’s clearly not embarrassed about either. 3) He clearly knows, has dealt with and spoken to Krieger as Kriger would acknowledge if you dropped him an email or sent him a letter. Do some journalism of your own rather than just googling for facts. Phone him up, tell him you’re a journalist doing a stor on our new PM and I’m sure he’ll talk to you.
To be fair though, the longer a small minority dribble on about “slippery”, “trust”, “secret agenda”, the better it is for Key and his Government as the voters in the middle compare the stories with the actual behaviour. You have the same problem as Ian Wishart – even when he gets a good story, the wider public dismiss it because he is seen to be so non-partisan.
Ev – I don’t want to start again arguing with you – you still gloss over the facts where they don’t suit you (Fed FX committee for instance), timeline on Sub prime, Keys actual role in ML, how positions in investment banks, flawed understanding of markets – just remember every seller need a buyer – a view that all you have to do is mention the word derivative to prove chicanery. Yawn. If you did some research, your case would look much better – your case becomes a laugh because there are clearly so many things you argue that you misunderstand or are misinformed on. Do some real research rather than trolling the web looking for smoking guns – thats just lazy and counterproductive to building a real case.
Anyway, I will never post on this again – I think of all the time I have wasted on a stupid subject and I want to scream. From our initial exchanges you’ve clearlyy altered our narrative to de-emphasise some of the things you are wrong on but not all of them. And I still really don’t know what you are trying to prove. I think nothing, at worst your case boils down to a confusion over dates and conversations 20 years ago. Yawn
Gomango Tim Ellis: I always wonder about people’s motive. I wonder if this case about John Key is so mythical, why would you bother to denigrate it?
Would it not better suit your purpose to let it crash and burn?
Or is it because you seek to defuse it because there may be a case to answer?
Or is it because you have a brotherly concern for the welfare of Travellev?
Ummm? Let me think?
gomango,
I appreciate the reply. In amongst all the positional noise I deduce that your position is that John Key and Andrew Krieger must have been trading together while Key was at Elders Merchant Finance, not at Bankers Trust.
Is that correct? A simple yes or no will suffice.
Ooh Key’s lied lots already on record, but we only know a fraction of its extent.
Yet.
That’s why Ev’s illuminations are being attacked so viciously.
Let us hope that our msm will at least publish the morsels it will now be fed on a silver platter, from Key’s opponents on both the Left and the Right.
(Hoping the msm would look themselves is clearly hoping for too much.)
Tim Ellis,
Your still call me a liar without any prove to support your accusation. A fourth time.
My lawyer is going to love this.
You have until Friday next week 9:45 am to prove that Andrew Krieger and John Key started to work together in September 1988. Until now all you have is innuendo and smear and you are very good at that. Innuendo smear and manipulation but I’n not budging on this one.
5 New Zealand journalists state that John Key started to work with Andrew Krieger in September 1988 but 3 New York time journalists (people who have absolutely nothing to gain by reporting these dates whereas the NZ Herald and stuff have a known bias in their reporting on JK) to rapport in three different articles at three different times state that Andrew Krieger left Bankers Trust in February 1988 and trading altogether in June 1988 three months before John Key alleges he was working with AK doing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of trading. At least one NZ interview with JK from 2007 supports an exit date earlier than October 1987.
If John Key was trading with AK in hundreds of millions in $ NZ in September 1988 you should have no problem proving this. That amount of trade would have been legendary. Andrew Krieger became a Wall street legend overnight after all when he did it in 1987
If John Key started to work in September 1988 with Andrew Krieger and did so well you should be able to find plenty of material supporting that.
You have until Friday 21 November 9:45am to produce it if you can not you will apologise in full here at the Standard in a comment on the latest post.
tim ellis I do not need a psychiatric qualiifcation nor any other qualification for that matter to say that you yourself are a creep and the way you creep round inhere is creepier than your usual creep by an order of magnitude.
so lets face it. because you cannot answer traveller ev who is well on the way to becoming a very good economic historian I might add, then you descend to attacking her personally .
so not only are you a creep but a rotten cad and a bounder and in another age you would be taken out and soundly thrashed.
Gomango,
Feel free to ignore me.
If what I say is drivel your hero will not get hurt but if on the other hand what I say is true and I support that with articles from the NY Times online archive than we have a real problem with JK as our PM.
If what I say, and what others who brought information to this blog say and these links say is so easy to disprove than provide proof and don’t give me crap about googling.
The New York Times archives weren’t placed online for nothing.
The timeline as given by an NZ MSM heavily biased towards National conflicts badly with the NY Times online archives timeline.
Andrew Krieger was and still is a Wall street legend and I put it to you that the NYTimes has no reason (while the NZ MSM clearly does) to spin the dates with regards to Andrew Krieger’s attack on the $NZ.
Gomango you are an incredibly patronising arsehole, just because I don’t have the same opinion about JK, Merrill Lynch, and Wall street doesn’t mean I don’t know what I’m talking about.
In fact the writer of the book you advised me to read is on record as supporting a lot of the stuff I say here. So perhaps you should read up a bit more.
Possibly the most inane thread ever !
Travellerev, I say again, it is not for me to prove your stupid assertions about when and where John Key worked. You are the one trying to establish that John Key lied. You have no evidence for this.
So either you are lying about it, or you are simply mentally disturbed.
If you have so much money to spare that you want to waste it on a lawyer, then fine. Your lawyer will be being paid to listen to you, while he privately laughs at how stupid you are. If he is a good, honest lawyer he won’t charge you, and instead he will tell you to spend your money on a good psychiatrist.
gomango
What I mean by Non Kiwi he is dull, bland devoid of opinion has none of the cultural or sporting interests or environmental values normally associated with some one who has grown up here.
I apologize for my emotive ramblings but the election of the Prime Tosser is a rerun of the 1975 election ( era of “The Pig’)and travelerev has taken me back to my youth with her insightful analyses. Chris Trotter first alerted me to what had occurred in NZ with his column on Sunday and I have to admit I had been scratching my head trying to make sense of it as I thought we’d “moved on’ and grown as a nation. I promise to keep my fingers taped and do no more tapping after this post as I am primarily in here for the insight (have been furiously cutting and pasting for the progeny all week as they have major life direction decisions to make now, and they’re sure as hell ain’t gonna get it from the MSM nor are the younger ones gonna get their much needed student allowances )Following up travelerev’s links what do I find ,that Key Worshipped “The Pig’. No wonder he didn’t have the balls to admit he was pro tour. The 1981 Springbok Tour is not an irrelevancy as painted by our sycophantic media during the election it was the nearest NZ has come to civil war. And educated a whole bunch of Sth Africans. The election just voted out the remnants of those of us who cut our political teeth during that debacle. Now apart from fear and hate the other prominent emotions amongst the NZ populace during the Muldoon years were complacency and despair. In 2011 we will have in NZ the MMP Referendum, Rugby World Cup, unemployment will have reared it’s ugly head again, as will poverty and crime. We will have a well armed police force who will undoubtedly be anointed by Key ( imitating his hero Muldoon, the man has no personality he just adopts others’)divided Maori will weaken the mix of dissatisfied voters but the future looks ugly to me, very ugly. Kia kaha
HS,
Wow that was a short week and after all that time on your hands that is all you come up with? How sad is that?
Gomango,
Watch the Money Masters
The Federal Reserve is owned by only a few banks who are owned by private banks
There is nothing Federal about the reserve and there are no reserves. Period. It’s a scam. A Ponzy scheme and we have been royally screwed by JK and his Mafia banking mates.
Wake up and smell the Armageddon as it comes our way, helped along by JK who will sell NZ’s independence (for what we have left) down the drain. He and his MSM cronies will start a fear campaign in the coming months and try to sell us a world currency and a world governance to help the ailing world economy.
Nothing will stop that collapse because the system is beyond repair but the scam will enable his cronies to squeeze the last bits of our wealth into their grubby greedy hands.
ev
they cant even read
they are just paid flunkies from the national party employed to fill serious blogs up with unending drivel and garbage
I think hooton has the contract to supply them
he bought a franchise off crosbytextinc,
whaddya think the text means?
dont woryy about ellis
he is justa programme somewhere bought to fill up space and distract people from the real issues
keep up the good work ev
and yes
bring a suit against ellis
we’ll all havea big party
hahahahaahaha
TE,
Friday 21 9:45 am. You’ve got until then.
I will give your postings to a lawyer specialised in slander on Monday and let him be the judge.
Your call
TE,
What’s more, I’ll relish the publicity it will give as I will make sure there is as much as I can generate. I wonder if JK will be appreciative though. LOL.
Again your call.
Captcha: straitjacket Phase. LOL
Randal,
I’m not worried about TE. He’s worried about us. LOL.
I agree with you about them being paid flunkies all the more fun f*&king them over.
I know a few people who would relish giving me publicity on this one. LOLOLOL
Shona,
Thanks a bunch girl, I’m glad to be of service and please don’t leave NZ.
Come to a hotbed of Rebellion close to Hamilton and we’ll see you right. LOL
Travellerev, I say again, it is not for me to prove your stupid assertions about when and where John Key worked. You are the one trying to establish that John Key lied. You have no evidence for this.
If you ignore the crystal clear evidence provided by Eve and others then of course you will see nothing. Clearly there is a significant discrepancy in the stories Key has told various media at various times. A child could see the problem here.
These assertions about where and when Key worked in the late 1980′s would mean little if he had been, say running a paper round at the time. But he was not. He was working for two companies that were both deeply involved in questionable, indeed criminal, dealings. Moreover Mr Key is our Prime Minister. We hold politicians, especially PM’s to a higher standard than the rest of us… (Mr Peters anyone?). Therefore it is incumbent on Mr Key to provide a watertight timeline and case as to why he was not involved.
The evidence proving that Mr Key has been less than fully and openly honest has been provided.
The only reason why you deny this, is because you cannot refute it.
Yes Eve
I see you’re still telling the same old stories to anyone who’ll listen – good for you have fun.
Red – not sure what you’re trying to prove that Key was a forex trader ? – that’s pretty much a statement of fact I thought, that he did trades with and during the era that Krieger was trading – I’d be surprised if he didn’t, can’t see why everyone gets so worked up about it myself.
heh heh, I knew you couldn’t ban yourself for long.
HS,
Ah come on, you are better than that. Your are being deliberately obtuse. Unless you have completely failed to read any of the actual thread or links provided, you must know exactly what the problem is.
But just to refresh our memories, lets see if we can get to some agreement on what the actual facts are here. Let me know if you disagree with any of these statements:
1. The original H-Fee scheme was devised in or around Oct 1987. The first transaction took place in January 1988.
2. When questions of his involvment in the H-Fee matter were of concern, Mr Key originally claimed to have to have left EMF “three months before any of these deals were devised’. (ie around June 1987)
3. When questions of his involvment in Krieger’s attack on the NZ dollar were of concern,Mr Key then later revised his leaving date from EMF to June 1988, and then joining BT three months later in September 1988.
4. Kreiger left BT on or before Feb 1988. After working for Soros for a few months he left the industry altogether in June 1988.
5. Key has claimed a close and lucrative working relationship with Krieger. The statements I have read about this, and the context they were written in strongly imply that this was while both men where working at BT but evidently this cannot be so, because in the revised version of Key’s timeline they missed each other at BT by at least 9 months.
If you disagree with any of these statements please let me know, so as we stand a chance of resolving the misunderstandings here. (Oh and yes, I do agree Mr Key was a Forex dealer.)
Felix
I know I know, I should put “The Standard” into net nanny for myself, tis me argumentative nature that gets me back here again.
Red – my last word on this issue the H-Fee was fully investigated by the SFO – it is public record that Key was found to have had no part in this.
In terms of his dealings with Krieger have a look here it’s all pretty much in the open –
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sundaystartimes/4385003a6442.html
Eve does seem to have a bit of a fixation on it (type John Key Andrew Kreiger into google and 90% of the links are to her !)
I thought Tim Ellis was Hooten. I’m disappointed.
He’s a classic baiter and switcher. The insistence that Key and Kreiger had to both be in BT at the same time is not essential to the story.
I prefer to postulate that Key was still in Elders when he got to know Kreiger by filling in the data for his giant bet on the NZ$. Key would likely try to present this as when they were working for the same firm for his own reasons but that is not necessary.
Meanwhile at Elders Key was in the position to know about if not perpetrate the fraud with Equiticorp. But on the strength of his collaboration with Kreiger he got headhunted (after a cooling down period in the ‘garden’).
His lies and prevarications, with half assed apologies when he gets caught out, seem to be designed to avoid any connection with both major attacks on the NZ economy.
Like lots of people, the sheer association with these deals, and I’m convinced, knowledge of them, would be enough to reveal that Key is a lackey of international finance capital. The truth will out as he unravels his ‘crisis management plan’.
He came back to NZ because he failed in his job with ML (interestingly there was a bunch of sexual harassment lawsuits by female employees at ML about this time also) and saw an opportunity to become the agent of international finance downunder. Everything he has said and done shows this to be his role. The speculating in Transrail while MP shows he has contempt for democracy. His association with Lord Arsehole of Belize shows he had no morality except the dollar. His crapping on about the underclass and gangster conning of the MP shows he will stoop at nothing to buy off any credulous flunky with a few crumbs for the whanau.
Ev is to be commended for her research and guts putting up with the rightie trolls on The Standard. Key has put together a corporatist regime with the backing of the banks, the media and NZ bosses who don’t want to pay for the ETS and RMA.
She is right about the crisis, Key and Co are picking out the remaining assets to milk and rip off (Kiwisaver and Cullen Fund – Infratil in NZH today is slavering at the mouth at the prospect). Fonterra will be floated and bought up by Nestle and the big banks.
This crisis, which goes to the heart of capitalism and isnt just a few greedy bankers, can only be paid for by the rich or the poor. Key’s corporatist regime is devoted to buying the loyalty of key stakeholders while it crunches the workers wages, savings and futures, to keep their rotten system alive.
Well we have new for them. You can only keep all the people fooled some of the time, and that time is running out.
Well done Ev and Redlogix and well done The Standard for hosting a serious political discussion at this critical time.
Red – my last word on this issue the H-Fee was fully investigated by the SFO – it is public record that Key was found to have had no part in this.
That may or may not prove to be true, but it has no direct bearing on the contradictions inherent in Key’s own statements.
I did not ask your (or the SFO’s) opinion on the H-Fee matter. What I did do was listed a number of statements and asked if you agreed or disagreed with them. In order to be clear I’ll copy and paste them for a third time:
1. The original H-Fee scheme was devised in or around Oct 1987. The first transaction took place in January 1988.
2. When questions of his involvment in the H-Fee matter were of concern, Mr Key originally claimed to have to have left EMF “three months before any of these deals were devised’. (ie around June 1987)
3. When questions of his involvment in Krieger’s attack on the NZ dollar were of concern,Mr Key then later revised his leaving date from EMF to June 1988, and then joining BT three months later in September 1988.
4. Kreiger left BT on or before Feb 1988. After working for Soros for a few months he left the industry altogether in June 1988.
5. Key has claimed a close and lucrative working relationship with Krieger. The statements I have read about this, and the context they were written in strongly imply that this was while both men where working at BT but evidently this cannot be so, because in the revised version of Key’s timeline they missed each other at BT by at least 9 months.
Do you disagree with any of these statements? A simple yes or no would suffice, or if you have alternative information I have not seen, I would genuinely like to see it. After all this should be a relatively simple matter to get some clarity on.
Right On rave, RL, Ev.
they dont appear to want to answer back sprout!
can’t imagine why randal.
i guess Crosby|Textor are a bit busy with all the new business they’ve drummed up to be feeding lines to trolls just now.
Or perhaps no one can be bothered
Rave:
“He came back to NZ because he failed in his job with ML (interestingly there was a bunch of sexual harassment lawsuits by female employees at ML about this time also)”
Are you saying or insinuating that Key was involved in a sexual harassment lawsuit?
What a fascinating thread!
I notice the naysayers fail to refute these allegations and resort to that oldest trick – claim the detailed links and logic are lies or the work of a ‘crazy woman’. That simply lends credence to the facts in Travellerevs detailed posts and has prompted me to visit some of her links.
There’s a lot of information here that gives me cause for alarm. And there must be many silent readers at this blog like me thinking WTF???.
I for one have now forwarded the link to this Standard thread onwards to my address book recipients. Thanks travellerev for this excellent illumination, and thankyou tim ellis gomangled and HS for lending credence to her research with your personal attacks.
HS,
You have had several hours now to answer my simple question.
Do you or do you not disagree with any of the statements I listed? A simple yes or no to each one would suffice.
Surely even you can be bothered that much?
“He came back to NZ because he failed in his job with ML (interestingly there was a bunch of sexual harassment lawsuits by female employees at ML about this time also)’
Without any specific evidence that is probably a stretch way too far.
Red
I have no idea of the veracity or otherwise of your points.
As I said previously this has been investigated previously by far more reputable people than people posting at this blog – I also have no doubt that if there was anything whiffy about the H-Fee or Kreigfer that the posters at this blog, who are after anything they can use against the Nats and Key, would be all over it like a rash.
Now as it’s a lovely evening I’m off to the beach.
The treatment of women at ML bears on the culture of finance capital.
It could be that JK left because he didnt like it.
That would be interesting.
You can google the stuff eg
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/21/business/21BIAS.html?ex=1397880000&en=a4cc76dbec5e87f0&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND