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The numbers man

Written By: - Date published: 8:47 am, January 27th, 2012 - 29 comments
Categories: john key - Tags:

Key didn’t exactly live up to his brand as the master politician and numbers man yesterday:

  • Key in the tea tapes: “we will get to 50. 49-50, anything around there will be good enough. When you are where we are the risk is a landslide” – Oops. 47.3%, one seat majority for rightwing policies
  • On Winston: “That’s a shut door. He’s currently at 2.5-3. He’ll poll 3 this time. A lot of his constituents have died.” – Oops. 6.6% and back.
  • “We are still on track to post a surplus in 2014/15 … in the range of $300 to $500 million”. – Oops. That’s down three-quarters from his Budget promise.

29 comments on “The numbers man”

  1. Nick 1

    Key is rich so he must know what he’s talking about. Its a dinnamic situation, give him a break.

  2. King Kong 2

    Stupid old Key. What an idiot. Of course we all know he should have prefaced his comments with “unless this conversation is being illegally recorded and TV3 make a gigantic fuss about it in which case Winston, aided by some usefull idiots of the left, will gain some political spotlight.”

    He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      “He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.”

      He did no such thing. Just more proof of your favourite hang-out, though.

    • Policy Parrot 2.2

      When you use the Pale Whale as your source – you immediately lose all credibility. Nice own goal.

    • Hami Shearlie 2.3

      I bet Jim’s thrilled that he never became the Mayor now!! What a mess!! Bob Parker, back to his old tricks with secret meetings etc, and the public braying for early local body elections. Seems the people in Christchurch are finally getting sick of Bob Parker’s carefully modulated voice – so contrived and slick!!

      • mik e 2.3.1

        What happened to the over priced buildings Bob Parker bought off the bankrupt property investor. Did the earth quake deal to them and leave CHCH another $ 7 million out of pocket.

      • felix 2.3.2

        If Anderton had become Mayor, the entire council would’ve been dissolved by National a year ago.

    • felix 2.4

      “who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor”

      Proof please KK. Only person I recall saying anything of the sort was Slater, and even he admitted it was all a lie.

      Crikey, what does that make you?

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Key was pretty damn close with his 49%-50% estimate. At 47.3% that’s less than 2% error.

    Of course he totally fumbled when it came to guessing NZ1 and ACT’s results.

    I think its also safe to add that the forecast surplus and growth numbers are going to come down even further in the next 6 months.

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      The numbers were always a fantasy, and everyone knew it. Even the media, which makes me wonder why they didn’t grill him on it.

      I’m not sure that Labour’s figures were much better, though.

    • beachbum 3.2

      I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

      It is reasonably safe to assume that unless there is some major turnaround there may be a change of Govt nest time. It is not easy to stay in for three terms and I think that third term Govts can become a bit complacent and lose their edge a bit.

      I do not recall any “experts” showing Winstons Party getting back in.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.1

        I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

        Nope. No one said that.

        People who run Businesses who take the gamble ,and employ people are just evil rich pricks in Labours eyes.

        I knew by Tuesday of election week that Winston was going to get back in, and get back in big.

      • Jack 3.2.2

        All but one… Horizon Polls… they had him up to 9 percent… That last week before the election, National, that idiot Farrar, and every right wing blog tore into Winston. They were relentless and as usual the main news media supported them. I think that had brought Winston’s numbers down.
        Key was petrified because Winston almost was the king maker… Key’s worse nightmare. Now I hope Winston rips into Key and takes Farrar to court for claims that Peters was an illegal candidate those 2 days before the election. Talk about low lifes.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.3

      By 2014/5 they’ll still be sitting in the minus ten billion range. If you ever wanted a good example of a spend and hope government then the one we have is the one you’ve waited for.

  4. tsmithfield 4

    If it was the speculated comments about the NZ1st support base that caused the surge in NZ1st support, then Key can’t really be criticised for the estimate he gave on the tape, since the existence and speculated content of tapes hadn’t been publicized at that stage.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      Key;s estimate on NAT’s own results were very good. His estimates on ACT and NZ1 were way off the mark.

  5. ak 5

    When you are where we are the risk is a landslide

    Sublime. Smug confidence gushing through sleek sheets like an adolescent’s wet dream.

    Translation: we won’t need you Banksie, but I enjoy any old craven suck-ups, anytime. Especially when I can twist the knife in Don’s back at the same time.

    When you are where we are, the risk is more ominously concrete: a wounded, insecure egotist on the way down, and his creators with one last chance at payback.

    Prediction: the media’s best efforts to hatemonger via “welfare reform” will not hold the polls: meltdown ahead, snap election 13.

  6. Karl Sinclair 6

    Leibniz believed that much of human reasoning could be reduced to calculations of a sort, and that such calculations could resolve many differences of opinion:

    The only way to rectify our reasonings is to make them as tangible as those of the Mathematicians, so that we can find our error at a glance, and when there are disputes among persons, we can simply say: Let us calculate [calculemus], without further ado, to see who is right.[40]

    Mr Poster Boy Keys, you bore me…… I down grade you to junk (D to be precise).

    http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock?page=2

    New Zealand Debt: 2008 (National won election 08/11/2011)
    Public debt: $19,963,934,426
    Public debt per person $4,658.17
    Popluation: 4,300,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 17.4%
    Total annual debt change: -18.3%

    New Zealand Debt: 2012 (National still in power)
    Public debt: $47,345,753,425
    Public debt per person $10,677.75
    Popluation: 4,400,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 31.8%
    Total annual debt change: 14.8%

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Nice work.

      Although I will say that in real life and in general, very few things can be accurately and safely mathematised.

      • beachbum 6.1.1

        So who actually puts the budget together? is it treasury (supposedly apolitical) based on interpreting the Govts policies, or someone else?

        Obviously Govt of day is responsible for the budget, but I just wondered at the process to get the budget.

        Budgets are just that – predictions based on assumptions – they can never be promises.

      • Karl Sinclair 6.1.2

        Agree, debate is best at the margins of error….. Unfortunately the trend is toward idiot statments like Mum & Dad Investors (i.e. Keys justification for selling assets….), so it does not even come close to a decent debate…..

        Ironic that the woman who analysed John Keys body language during the pre election debate called him a man of objectivity and reason (only behind closed doors it appears)

        In order for the Nats to continue their margin of control they have to ensure people don’t get a proper analysis.

        • aerobubble 6.1.2.1

          Key’s speculator job was to be objective behind close doors, talk up lemons, and talk down prospects. The man is a middle man.

          • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.1.1

            A middle man who made his fortune by putting other peoples’ money at risk.

    • eme 6.2

      Karl, simple to understand numbers, that is the way to argue.
      Those numbers need to be out there in the limelight for everybody to see, every day.
      And we need to keep tracking them..

      Here is hoping they will turn around, unfortunately not much for the next 3 years..r

  7. Wetfootmammal 7

    Key’s not a numbers man – he’s a necromancer.

  8. Ardub R W Davis 8

    If you really want tp know what is going on in the world. Turn on TV 7 On Weds and look up when The Secret s of the Seven Sisters is airing. I wondered why this Govt wants to shut down T V 7. This is the only Station that tells us just a little bit of the truth.

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    The trouble with the Charter school model is that it is a publicly funded experiment on children. The National Government has consistently put its desire to open charter schools ahead of the safety of the children in them, ignoring repeated… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    5 days ago
  • Bank puts the squeeze on mid Canterbury farmers
    News that an unnamed bank in Ashburton has put a receiver on notice over financially vulnerable farmers will send a chill through rural New Zealand, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The Government needs to work with  New Zealand’s banks… ...
    5 days ago
  • Key is trading away New Zealand land and homes
    John Key yesterday admitted what National dishonestly refused to confirm in Parliament last week – he is trading away New Zealand’s right to control who buys our homes and land, says Opposition leader Andrew Little. “The Prime Minister must now… ...
    5 days ago
  • Razor gang takes scalpel to health
    Plans by the Government to take a scalpel to democratically elected health boards are deceitful and underhand, coming just months after an election during which they were never signalled, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says “Leaked documents reveals a radical… ...
    5 days ago
  • Spin lines show a department in chaos
    Corrections Spin Doctors sending their place holder lines to journalists instead of responding to serious allegations shows the scale of chaos at the department over the Serco scandal, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “As more and more serious allegations… ...
    7 days ago
  • Court ruling shows law should never have been passed
    A High Court ruling that a law banning prisoners from voting is inconsistent with a properly functioning democracy should be a wake-up call for the Government, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. In an unprecedented ruling Justice Paul Heath has… ...
    1 week ago
  • Judicial Review Gamble Pays Off for Problem Gambling Foundation
    Congratulations are due to the Problem Gambling Foundation (PGFNZ) who have won their legal case around how the Ministry of Health decided to award their contracts for problem gambling services to another service provider. Congratulations are due not just for… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Environmental Protection Agency appoints GE advocate as new CEO
    This week, the Environmental Protection Authority Amendment Bill passed its first reading in Parliament. The Bill puts protection of the environment into the core purpose of the Environmental Protection Authority. This month, Dr Allan Freeth, the former Chief Executive of… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    1 week ago
  • Charanpreet Dhaliwal death demands genuine health and safety reform
    The killing of a security guard on his first night on the job is exactly the kind of incident that National’s watered-down health and safety bill won’t prevent, says Te Atatu MP Phil Twyford. The coronial inquest into 22-year-old Charanpreet… ...
    1 week ago
  • Arbitrary sanctions hit children hardest
    Increasing numbers of single parents are being penalised under a regime that is overly focussed on sanctions rather than getting more people into work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Figures, obtained through Parliamentary questions show 3000 more sanctions,… ...
    1 week ago
  • Hekia just won’t face the facts
    Hekia Parata’s decision to keep troubled Whangaruru Charter school open despite being presented with a catalogue of failure defies belief, goes against official advice and breaks a Government promise to close these schools if they were failing, says Labour’s Education… ...
    1 week ago
  • No more silent witnesses
    Yesterday I attended the launch of a new initiative developed by and for Asian, Middle eastern and African youth to support young people to name and get support if there is domestic violence at home. The impact on children of… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Single Use Plastic Bags campaign – Some wins and some green-washing
    As we near the end of Plastic Free July I’m nearing the conclusion of my Say No To Plastic Bag tour when I will have completed all 30 of my public meetings. The campaign was designed to work with community… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    1 week ago
  • Minister must take responsibility for problem gambling debacle
    The Government’s handling of the Problem Gambling Foundation’s axing in a cost-cutting exercise has been ham-fisted and harmful to some of the most vulnerable people in society, Associate Health Labour spokesperson David Clark says.“Today’s court ruling overturning the axing of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour will not support TPP if it undermines NZ sovereignty
    The Labour Party will not support the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement unless key protections for New Zealanders are met, Opposition leader Andrew Little says.“Labour supports free trade. However, we will not support a TPP agreement that undermines New Zealand’s sovereignty. ...
    1 week ago
  • Coleman can’t ignore latest warnings
    Resident doctors have advised that a severe staffing shortage at North Shore Hospital is putting patients’ lives at risk, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “They say a mismatch between staffing levels and patient workloads at North Shore has… ...
    1 week ago
  • ACC must remove barriers to appeals
    The Government must prioritise removing barriers to justice for ACC claimants following a damning report by Acclaim Otago, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “ACC Minister Nikki Kaye must urgently scrap her flawed plan to remove claimant’s right to redress… ...
    1 week ago
  • Six months’ paid parental leave back on the agenda
    Six months’ paid parental leave is back on the agenda and a step closer to reality for Kiwi parents after Labour’s new Member’s Bill was pulled from today’s ballot, the Bill’s sponsor and Labour MP Sue Moroney says. “My Bill… ...
    1 week ago
  • Sole parents at risk of having no income
    New requirements for sole parents to undertake a reapplication process after a year is likely to mean a large number will face benefit cancellations, but not because they have obtained work, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Increasing numbers… ...
    1 week ago
  • Juking the Welfare Stats Again
    Last week the government’s major initiative to combat child poverty (a paltry $25 increase) was exposed for what it is, a lie. The Government, through the Budget this year, claims to be engaging in the child poverty debate, but instead,… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    1 week ago
  • OCR rate cut a result of flagging economy
    The Reserve Bank's decision to cut the Official Cash Rate to 3 per cent shows there is no encore for the so-called 'rock star' economy, says Labour's Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.   "Today's interest rate cut comes off the back… ...
    1 week ago
  • Reboot to an innovation economy, an Internet economy and a clean economy
    In my short 33 years on this planet we’ve seen phenomenal technological, economic and social change, and it’s realistic to expect the next 33 will see even more, even faster change. You can see it in the non-descript warehouse near… ...
    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    1 week ago
  • Bill that puts the environment into the EPA passes first hurdle
    A Bill that puts the environment squarely into legislation governing the Environmental Protection Authority passed its first reading today, says Meka Whaitiri.  “I introduced this member’s bill as the current law doesn’t actually make protecting the environment a goal of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Key’s KiwiSaver deception exposed
    KiwiSaver statistics released today expose John Key's claim that the cutting of the kickstart payment "will not make a blind bit of difference to the number of people who join KiwiSaver” to be duplicitous, says Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson.  “Official… ...
    1 week ago
  • Minimum Wage Amendment Bill to protect contractors
    All New Zealanders should be treated fairly at work. Currently, the law allows non-employment relationships to be used to get around the minimum wage. This is unfair, says Labour MP David Parker. “The Minimum Wage (Contractor Remuneration) Amendment Bill, a… ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill raises bar to protect Kiwi farmland
    The Government’s rubber-stamping of every one of the nearly 400 applications from overseas investors to buy New Zealand farm land over the last three years proves tougher laws are needed, Labour MP Phil Goff says. “In the last term of… ...
    1 week ago
  • Costly flag referendum should be dumped
    John Key must ditch the flag referendum before any more taxpayer money is wasted, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “Millions of dollars could be saved if the Prime Minister called a halt to this hugely expensive, and highly unpopular, vanity… ...
    1 week ago
  • Nats letting Serco off scot free
    Government members have prevented Parliament’s Law and Order select committee from getting answers out of a senior Serco director about the fight clubs being run at Mt Eden prisons, says Labour’s Corrections Spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “At today’s Law and Order… ...
    1 week ago
  • Charter school experiment turns into shambles
    The National Government’s charter school experiment has descended into chaos and it’s time for Hekia Parata to stop trying to cover up the full extent of the problems, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The Education Minister must release all… ...
    1 week ago

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