web analytics

The numbers man

Written By: - Date published: 8:47 am, January 27th, 2012 - 29 comments
Categories: john key - Tags:

Key didn’t exactly live up to his brand as the master politician and numbers man yesterday:

  • Key in the tea tapes: “we will get to 50. 49-50, anything around there will be good enough. When you are where we are the risk is a landslide” – Oops. 47.3%, one seat majority for rightwing policies
  • On Winston: “That’s a shut door. He’s currently at 2.5-3. He’ll poll 3 this time. A lot of his constituents have died.” – Oops. 6.6% and back.
  • “We are still on track to post a surplus in 2014/15 … in the range of $300 to $500 million”. – Oops. That’s down three-quarters from his Budget promise.

29 comments on “The numbers man”

  1. Nick 1

    Key is rich so he must know what he’s talking about. Its a dinnamic situation, give him a break.

  2. King Kong 2

    Stupid old Key. What an idiot. Of course we all know he should have prefaced his comments with “unless this conversation is being illegally recorded and TV3 make a gigantic fuss about it in which case Winston, aided by some usefull idiots of the left, will gain some political spotlight.”

    He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      “He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.”

      He did no such thing. Just more proof of your favourite hang-out, though.

    • Policy Parrot 2.2

      When you use the Pale Whale as your source – you immediately lose all credibility. Nice own goal.

    • Hami Shearlie 2.3

      I bet Jim’s thrilled that he never became the Mayor now!! What a mess!! Bob Parker, back to his old tricks with secret meetings etc, and the public braying for early local body elections. Seems the people in Christchurch are finally getting sick of Bob Parker’s carefully modulated voice – so contrived and slick!!

      • mik e 2.3.1

        What happened to the over priced buildings Bob Parker bought off the bankrupt property investor. Did the earth quake deal to them and leave CHCH another $ 7 million out of pocket.

      • felix 2.3.2

        If Anderton had become Mayor, the entire council would’ve been dissolved by National a year ago.

    • felix 2.4

      “who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor”

      Proof please KK. Only person I recall saying anything of the sort was Slater, and even he admitted it was all a lie.

      Crikey, what does that make you?

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Key was pretty damn close with his 49%-50% estimate. At 47.3% that’s less than 2% error.

    Of course he totally fumbled when it came to guessing NZ1 and ACT’s results.

    I think its also safe to add that the forecast surplus and growth numbers are going to come down even further in the next 6 months.

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      The numbers were always a fantasy, and everyone knew it. Even the media, which makes me wonder why they didn’t grill him on it.

      I’m not sure that Labour’s figures were much better, though.

    • beachbum 3.2

      I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

      It is reasonably safe to assume that unless there is some major turnaround there may be a change of Govt nest time. It is not easy to stay in for three terms and I think that third term Govts can become a bit complacent and lose their edge a bit.

      I do not recall any “experts” showing Winstons Party getting back in.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.1

        I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

        Nope. No one said that.

        People who run Businesses who take the gamble ,and employ people are just evil rich pricks in Labours eyes.

        I knew by Tuesday of election week that Winston was going to get back in, and get back in big.

      • Jack 3.2.2

        All but one… Horizon Polls… they had him up to 9 percent… That last week before the election, National, that idiot Farrar, and every right wing blog tore into Winston. They were relentless and as usual the main news media supported them. I think that had brought Winston’s numbers down.
        Key was petrified because Winston almost was the king maker… Key’s worse nightmare. Now I hope Winston rips into Key and takes Farrar to court for claims that Peters was an illegal candidate those 2 days before the election. Talk about low lifes.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.3

      By 2014/5 they’ll still be sitting in the minus ten billion range. If you ever wanted a good example of a spend and hope government then the one we have is the one you’ve waited for.

  4. tsmithfield 4

    If it was the speculated comments about the NZ1st support base that caused the surge in NZ1st support, then Key can’t really be criticised for the estimate he gave on the tape, since the existence and speculated content of tapes hadn’t been publicized at that stage.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      Key;s estimate on NAT’s own results were very good. His estimates on ACT and NZ1 were way off the mark.

  5. ak 5

    When you are where we are the risk is a landslide

    Sublime. Smug confidence gushing through sleek sheets like an adolescent’s wet dream.

    Translation: we won’t need you Banksie, but I enjoy any old craven suck-ups, anytime. Especially when I can twist the knife in Don’s back at the same time.

    When you are where we are, the risk is more ominously concrete: a wounded, insecure egotist on the way down, and his creators with one last chance at payback.

    Prediction: the media’s best efforts to hatemonger via “welfare reform” will not hold the polls: meltdown ahead, snap election 13.

  6. Karl Sinclair 6

    Leibniz believed that much of human reasoning could be reduced to calculations of a sort, and that such calculations could resolve many differences of opinion:

    The only way to rectify our reasonings is to make them as tangible as those of the Mathematicians, so that we can find our error at a glance, and when there are disputes among persons, we can simply say: Let us calculate [calculemus], without further ado, to see who is right.[40]

    Mr Poster Boy Keys, you bore me…… I down grade you to junk (D to be precise).

    http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock?page=2

    New Zealand Debt: 2008 (National won election 08/11/2011)
    Public debt: $19,963,934,426
    Public debt per person $4,658.17
    Popluation: 4,300,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 17.4%
    Total annual debt change: -18.3%

    New Zealand Debt: 2012 (National still in power)
    Public debt: $47,345,753,425
    Public debt per person $10,677.75
    Popluation: 4,400,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 31.8%
    Total annual debt change: 14.8%

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Nice work.

      Although I will say that in real life and in general, very few things can be accurately and safely mathematised.

      • beachbum 6.1.1

        So who actually puts the budget together? is it treasury (supposedly apolitical) based on interpreting the Govts policies, or someone else?

        Obviously Govt of day is responsible for the budget, but I just wondered at the process to get the budget.

        Budgets are just that – predictions based on assumptions – they can never be promises.

      • Karl Sinclair 6.1.2

        Agree, debate is best at the margins of error….. Unfortunately the trend is toward idiot statments like Mum & Dad Investors (i.e. Keys justification for selling assets….), so it does not even come close to a decent debate…..

        Ironic that the woman who analysed John Keys body language during the pre election debate called him a man of objectivity and reason (only behind closed doors it appears)

        In order for the Nats to continue their margin of control they have to ensure people don’t get a proper analysis.

        • aerobubble 6.1.2.1

          Key’s speculator job was to be objective behind close doors, talk up lemons, and talk down prospects. The man is a middle man.

          • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.1.1

            A middle man who made his fortune by putting other peoples’ money at risk.

    • eme 6.2

      Karl, simple to understand numbers, that is the way to argue.
      Those numbers need to be out there in the limelight for everybody to see, every day.
      And we need to keep tracking them..

      Here is hoping they will turn around, unfortunately not much for the next 3 years..r

  7. Wetfootmammal 7

    Key’s not a numbers man – he’s a necromancer.

  8. Ardub R W Davis 8

    If you really want tp know what is going on in the world. Turn on TV 7 On Weds and look up when The Secret s of the Seven Sisters is airing. I wondered why this Govt wants to shut down T V 7. This is the only Station that tells us just a little bit of the truth.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Private schools beneficiaries of extra cash
    Plans to give more taxpayer money to private schools at a time when state schools are struggling to make ends meet says everything about the National Government’s twisted priorities, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Not only did this year’s ...
    8 hours ago
  • Inequality getting worse under National
    Inequality is getting worse under National with almost 60 per cent of the wealth in this country concentrated in the hands of the top 10 per cent according to Statistics NZ figures released today, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. ...
    10 hours ago
  • Government freezes elderly out of insulation subsidy
    Government cuts to the Warm Up New Zealand insulation subsidy means it will now only be available for rental properties and could leave many elderly homeowners cold this winter, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “In this year’s Budget the Government ...
    1 day ago
  • Shewan report delivers rebuke to National
    John Shewan’s report into foreign trusts is a rebuke to John Key and the National Party who have protected an industry that has damaged New Zealand’s reputation, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Three years ago the Inland Revenue Department ...
    1 day ago
  • Auckland Airport rail analysis must be made public
    The Government should publicly release its detailed analysis of rail to Auckland Airport before it closes off options, so the public can have an informed debate, says Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford. The Transport Agency today said it is ...
    1 day ago
  • Minister approved OIO consent despite death and investigations
    Louise Upston must say if she knew Intueri was being prosecuted for the death of a student and under a funding investigation when she approved its overseas investment consent to buy another education provider, says Labour’s Land Information and Associate ...
    2 days ago
  • Brexit vote costs NZ effective EU voice
    Despite being extremely close the result of the referendum in Britain reflects the majority voice, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “While we respect the decision to leave the EU, it goes without saying the move will usher in ...
    4 days ago
  • Pasifika Education Centre doomed
    The Pasifika Education Centre appears doomed to close down this December, says Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio  “In a written question I asked the Minister whether he would put a bid in for more money. His answer ...
    4 days ago
  • Onetai Station review a shameful whitewash
    A report released today on the Overseas Investment Office’s (OIO) good character test is a whitewash that does nothing to improve New Zealand’s overseas investment regime, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe. “The review of the good character test ...
    4 days ago
  • We need a national strategy to end homelessness now
    Long before I entered Parliament, housing and homelessness were issues dear to my heart. I know from personal experience just how hard it is to find an affordable home in Auckland. In my maiden speech, I talked about how when ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    5 days ago
  • Capital feels a chill economic wind
      Wellington is on the cusp of recession with a sharp fall in economic confidence in the latest Westpac McDermott Miller confidence survey, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Clark.  “Economic confidence amongst Wellingtonians has dropped 12% in the past ...
    5 days ago
  • Dive school rort took six years to dredge up
    News that yet another private training establishment (PTE) has rorted the Government’s tertiary funding system since 2009 shows that Steven Joyce has no control of the sector, says Labour’s Associate Education (Tertiary) spokesperson David Cunliffe. “Like Agribusiness Training and Taratahi, ...
    5 days ago
  • National’s housing crisis hitting renters hard
    National’s ongoing housing crisis is causing massive rental increases, with Auckland renters being hit the hardest, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    5 days ago
  • A Day with the PSA
    This week, along with Labour MP Kris Faafoi, I accepted an invitation to spend a day working alongside the good folk at the Public Service Association in Wellington. As the Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson for the Greens, I was ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    5 days ago
  • A Day with the PSA
    This week, along with Labour MP Kris Faafoi, I accepted an invitation to spend a day working alongside the good folk at the Public Service Association in Wellington. As the Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson for the Greens, I was ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    5 days ago
  • Government holds Northland back
    New information shows Northland remains the most economically depressed region in New Zealand, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Clark. “The latest Westpac McDermott Miller regional survey found that more Northlanders believe their local economy will deteriorate this year than ...
    5 days ago
  • Rebstock report into MFAT leaks a disgrace
    An Ombudsman’s report on the Paul Rebstock investigation into MFAT leaks shows the two diplomats at the centre of the case were treated disgracefully, says Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi.  “The Ombudsman says one of the diplomats Derek Leask ...
    6 days ago
  • More families forced to turn to food banks for meals
    Increasing numbers of families are having to go to food banks just to put a meal on the table, according to a new report that should shame the Government into action, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. ...
    6 days ago
  • We have a housing emergency in New Zealand
    Auckland, New Zealand, where house prices have risen 20 percent in the last year alone We have a housing emergency in New Zealand.  Like many people we are ashamed and angry that in a wealthy country like ours, we have ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    6 days ago
  • We have a housing emergency in New Zealand
    Auckland, New Zealand, where house prices have risen 20 percent in the last year alone We have a housing emergency in New Zealand.  Like many people we are ashamed and angry that in a wealthy country like ours, we have ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    6 days ago
  • Aussie reforms signal trouble ahead for school funding plan
    Plans by the Government to return to bulk funding are likely to see increased class sizes and schools most in need missing out on much-needed resources, Labour’s Acting Education spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The signaled return to bulk funding is ...
    6 days ago
  • Toxic Sites – the down low on the go slow
    In  2011, I negotiated an agreement with the National Government to advance work on cleaning up contaminated sites across the country. This included establishing a National Register of the ten worst sites where the creators of the problem could not ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    6 days ago
  • Aucklanders face new motorway tax of up to $2500 a year
    The Government wants to tax Aucklanders thousands of dollars a year just to use the motorway network, says Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Officials estimate the average city commute is 11.8km. This means for the average Aucklander commuting five ...
    7 days ago
  • 15 corrupt bank managers identified in student fraud
    New information show 15 bank managers in India have been identified by Immigration New Zealand as presenting fraudulent documents on behalf of foreign students studying here, Labour’s Immigration spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “Documents obtained by Labour under the Official Information ...
    7 days ago
  • National leaves Kiwi savers the most vulnerable in OECD
    News last week that Israel’s Finance Minister will insure savers’ bank deposits means New Zealand will be left as the only country in the OECD that has no deposit insurance to protect savers’ funds should a bank fail. Most Kiwis ...
    GreensBy James Shaw
    1 week ago
  • Comprehensive plan for future of work needed
    A Massey University study showing many New Zealanders are unaware of the increasing role of automation in their workplace, highlights the need for a comprehensive plan for the future of work, says Grant Robertson, Chair of Labour’s Future of Work ...
    1 week ago
  • Another National Government failure: 90 day work trials
    On Friday last week, the Treasury released a report by MOTU economic consultants into the effectiveness of the controversial 90-day work trial legislation. The report found that there was “no evidence that the policy affected the number of hires by ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    1 week ago
  • Iraq mission extension case not made
    The Prime Minister has not made the case for extending the Iraq deployment another 18 months nor the expansion of their mission, says Opposition Leader Andrew Little.  “Labour originally opposed the deployment because the Iraqi Army’s track record was poor, ...
    1 week ago
  • Denial is a long river
    William Rolleston from Federated Farmers made the absurd claim on RNZ on Saturday that “we actually have very clean rivers”. This statement doesn’t represent the many farmers who know water quality is in big trouble and are working to clean ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Denial is a long river
    William Rolleston from Federated Farmers made the absurd claim on RNZ on Saturday that “we actually have very clean rivers”. This statement doesn’t represent the many farmers who know water quality is in big trouble and are working to clean ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Melanoma deaths could be avoided by an early access scheme
      The tragic death of Dunedin’s Graeme Dore from advanced Melanoma underlines the cruelty of this Government in promising a treatment but delaying for months, says Labour’s Health Spokesperson Annette King.  “Graeme was diagnosed with Melanoma last year. He used ...
    1 week ago
  • Assessing the Defence White Paper
    The Government’s recently released Defence White Paper has raised questions again about New Zealand’s defence priorities, and in particular the level and nature of public funding on defensive capabilities. The Green Party has a longstanding belief that priority must be ...
    GreensBy Kennedy Graham
    1 week ago
  • Kiwis’ confidence drops again: Economy needs a boost
    Westpac’s consumer confidence survey has fallen for the seventh time in nine quarters, with middle income households ‘increasingly worried about where the economy is heading over the next few years’, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “This survey is a ...
    1 week ago
  • Relocation grant simply kicks can down the road
    The response by state house tenants and social agencies to the Government’s rushed plan to shift families out of Auckland tells us what we already knew – this is no answer to the chronic housing shortage, Opposition Leader Andrew Little ...
    1 week ago
  • Peace hīkoi to Parihaka
    On Friday a Green crew walked with the peace hīkoi from Ōkato to Parihaka. Some of us were from Parliament and some were party members from Taranaki and further afield. It was a cloudy but gentle day and at one ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Children’s Commissioner right to worry about CYF transition
    The Government must listen to the Children’s Commissioner’s concerns that young people under CYF care could be ‘negatively impacted’ as the new agency’s reforms become reality, says Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern. “Dr Russell Wills has used the second annual ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill English exaggerates PPL costs to justify veto
    The Finance Minister has used trumped-up costings to justify a financial veto against parents having 26 weeks paid parental leave, says Labour MP Sue Moroney. “Bill English’s assertion on RNZ yesterday that the measure would cost an extra $280 million ...
    1 week ago
  • Government must refund overcharged motorists
    Labour is calling on the Government to refund motor registration fees to three-quarters of a million Kiwi motorists whose vehicles were wrongly classified under National’s shambolic ACC motor vehicle risk rating system, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says.“Minister Kaye’s ridiculous ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 90-day work trials an unfair failure which must change
    A new Treasury report shows the Government’s 90-day trials haven’t helped businesses and are inherently unfair, Labour’s Workplace Relations spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “The Motu report found that 90-day trial periods had no impact on overall employment and did not ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Massey East houses a start but Nick Smith should think bigger
    The Massey East 196-home development is a start but the Government must think bigger if it is to end the housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “It is great the Government is finally realising it needs to build ...
    2 weeks ago
  • More changes needed to ensure fewer cases like Teina Pora’s
    Teina Pora spent 21 years behind bars for a crime he didn’t commit, shafted by a Police investigation that prioritised an investigator’s hunch over the pursuit of credible evidence. Yesterday’s announcement that the government is to pay him $2.5m in ...
    GreensBy David Clendon
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Labour sends condolences to UK
    The New Zealand Labour Party is sickened and saddened by the murder of British Labour MP Jo Cox, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “Ms Cox was killed in cold blood while simply doing her job as a constituent MP. She ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Shameful refugee quota increase still leaves NZ at the bottom of the list
    Minister for Immigration Michael Woodhouse announced this week that the government will put off increasing the refugee quota by 1000 places until 2018.  It’s a shameful decision that undermines the Government’s claim that it takes its international humanitarian obligations seriously, ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    2 weeks ago
  • Paula Bennett as a victim hard to swallow
    The National Party spin machine has gone into overdrive to try and present Paula Bennett as the victim in the Te Puea Marae smear saga, says Labour Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Bill English in Parliament today tried valiantly to paint ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Voters to have the final veto on paid parental leave
    New Zealanders will have the final right of veto on a Government that has ignored democracy and is out of touch with the pressures and demands on families, says Labour MP Sue Moroney. “Today’s decision by National to veto 26 ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Collins should put Kiwis’ money where her mouth is
    Labour’s Police spokesman Stuart Nash is calling on anyone who has received a speeding ticket for going up to 5km/h over the 100km/hr open road speed limit to write to him and he will take it up on their behalf ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Where is the leadership on equal pay for work of equal value?
    The gender pay gap in the public service is worse than in the private sector. I’ve always found this particularly galling because I expect our Government to provide an example to the private sector on things like human rights, rather ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie
    2 weeks ago
  • Kiwis’ real disposable income goes nowhere for the year
    New Zealanders’ hard work for the last year resulted in no increase in real disposable income, showing Kiwis aren’t getting ahead under National, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Today’s GDP figures reveal that real gross national disposable income per ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Pora case a case to learn from
    Conformation that Teina Pora will receive $2.5million from the Crown for more than 20 years of wrongful imprisonment does not fix the flaws in our system that led to this miscarriage of justice, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “The ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government needs to start again with RMA changes
    The National Government’s proposed changes to the Resource Management Act have attracted more than 800 submissions, many of them critical of key aspects of the Resource Legislation Bill. There has been much criticism of the new regulation making powers given ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere