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The only response needed

Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.

At 6.5% off, that was the least accurate of the bunch.

The drop from that poll to now in the Fairfax is 4.5%. If you translate that to the actual starting point, National’s down to around 43%, which is what the other, competent, polls show.

I doubt the latest Fairfax brainfart will be a “major blow” anyone’s morale.

Updated: The Colmar-Brunton poll on the same day contradicts the shifts and the percentages in the Fairfax poll. It also covers the same 19th-23rd of October time period.

162 comments on “The only response needed”

  1. Michael Vally:

    Dear oh dear oh dear.

    Thats four dears.

    Your like a repug who watches faux news, you only take notice on the polls that have your guys doing well, (which havent been a lot for labour over the years)

    Keep ya head in the sand, big boy.

    BTW, what are the trends saying?

  2. Policy Parrot 2

    I would be interested in Fairfax publishing their methodology for their polling; specifically:

    – Time of the day called,
    – Whether mobiles are called or not,
    – Call-backs if busy or NCA are performed, or such pollee’s are discarded

    The problem really lies with the associated spin, which drives the next news cycle. If such a premise is based on false assumptions, it can become a bit of a self-fulfilling tendency (i.e. if voters think there is no contest, why bother considering an alternative, unless obviously motivated?)

    • Te Reo Putake 2.1

      Sample size? One

      Time of day? Just after the editorial meeting at Granny finishes.

      Mobiles? Not needed, the Herald operator puts us straight through to the editor.

      Call backs? Also not needed; once the editor gives the instructions, we know what numbers to write.

      Edit, first person to spot the obvious mistake wins a chocolate fish. I put it down to typing through tears.

    • Steve 2.2

      Also how often do they Poll? My quick look back over the last year shows Fairfax trend was to poll every 3 months Nov 28th -3 Dec 2012, Feb 10-14 2013,May 19-23 2013,Aug 12-25 2013, Suddenly we have a 2 month poll (Oct 19-23) taken before the latest Asset Sale flop and a week before Labour’s annual conference in Christchurch which makes front page headlines on Labour Day. Interesting

    • Anon 2.3

      As someone who once worked on these polls for Ipsos/Fairfax, I can give a little bit of information on this. In May, the last polling period I have the records for, the times called were:
      Sunday – 19th May (AM) 9:30am-3:00pm
      Sunday – 19th May (PM) 3:00pm- 9:00pm
      Monday – 20th May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Tuesday – 21st May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Wednesday – 22nd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Thursday – 23rd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      No mobile phones were called in the time I worked there. Callbacks if someone was busy were regularly undertaken. The work environment was professional and there was no obvious conservative bias (though all of their polls seem to show one, I suspect because of the very nature of landline polling.)

      • Thanks very much for that. I always figured Fairfax’s rightward spin was a result of demographic biases in their methods, rather than outright bias or shoddy work overall, but it’s nice to have it confirmed. The landline bias would certainly contribute.

      • the pigman 2.3.2

        Oh come on Farrar, I know the private polling business is drying up, but Fairfax?! Really…?

    • David H 2.4

      This is all I could find. Random Phone indeed. I would presume that they also only do Landlines.

      http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/fairfax-ipsos-poll-october-2013/

  3. phil 3

    The comments on the Fairfax website were telling. Pro Nat comments were given 5 thumbs up, while the very next (anti) Nat comments received 5 or 6 thumbs down. Clearly indicates the bias of that network. ho hum…

    • Francis 3.1

      Since it hasn’t been posted anywhere on this page, this is where the results (and comments) are located: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour

      See a lot of comments implying that somehow, National’s policies are moderate while Labour’s are somehow extreme. My bias view would say that it’s the other way around (National are far-right, particularly economically while Labour is somewhere around center-left/left), but I guess they’re probably at around the same level. That would mean the 2014 election will be a clear vote between left- and right-wing policies, rather than the usual ones where there’s not much difference between the two main parties.

      If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

      • Tat Loo (CV) 3.1.1

        If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

        It probably more represents the demographic who most visit Stuff and NZ Herald online i.e. persons earning >$60K pa.

        What I see in the big lift in the last 2 Roy Morgans is that a lot of New Zealanders are not fooled by the MSM droning on, but were waiting for a clearly defined Opposition alternative to show up.

        • Sir Cullen's Sidekick 3.1.1.1

          Yeah only Roy Morgan poll is reliable as it shows Labour winning.. Good one.

        • miravox 3.1.1.2

          I think they are manipulated by the propaganda of the government regurgitated by the media. It doesn’t help that people born in 70s and onwards haven’t seen a proper left-wing government. I think Clark was proudly centrist.

          When we moved to Austria, we were stunned by how ‘left-wing’ this place is – as have been all our NZ visitors. We have to remind ourselves that this country is under a government that is a grand coalition of the equivalent of NZ’s Labour and National, so is by definition ‘centrist’. (Vienna itself is the equivalent of a Labour-Green coalition).

          National really is far-right, economically, by comparison.

      • Wayne 3.1.2

        You need to get out more if you think NZ is in the grip of a far right government (though at least you admit it is in part your bias).

        • KJT 3.1.2.1

          You are correct Wayne, A bunch of thieving wannabee Fascists, is a better description.

          • Wayne 3.1.2.1.1

            Try telling that to potential voters and see how far you get. Unless of course you think the half of NZer’s are in fact thieving fascists, or deluded pawns.

            • greywarbler 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Maybe they are thieving pawns or deluded fascists. That is up for study and discussion. Good if we can refute it.

            • KJT 3.1.2.1.1.2

              No. The majority of New Zealanders are misled pawns.

              Misled by the highly effective propaganda, and re-writing of history, of the neo-liberal religion.

              Unfortunately not many now are old enough to remember how much better off we were under genuinely socialist Governments. Before our “unfortunate experiment”.

              People like Mike Moore, Don Brash, maybe Rodney Hide and yourself, perhaps, genuinely believe in that religion and have the best of intentions. Like many religious people. Not much difference from the, “happy clappy”, cult followers who try and attract people off the streets.

              The Neo-liberal fascists, like all cult leaders, are happy to use the misled and the “true believers” to advance their socially destructive, but personally lucrative, agenda.

  4. Tat Loo (CV) 4

    As noted in Open Mike, Fairfax are using a different polling company than pre 2011 elections.

  5. Tracey 5

    Do they publish the questions?

    Brett given how easily you dismiss all keys lies your opinion has limitations.

  6. Disraeli Gladstone 6

    At this rate, if all parties and partisans can ignore the polls and write them off without a comment, that would be great. Because I’m getting tired of the staggering level of ignorance on statistics from 8 out of 10 people.

  7. Tracey 7

    Brett. Read the honest man thread and tell me which lies you accept amongst those listed.

    • Tracey:

      I was born to lead, not to read.

      • fender 7.1.1

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

      • fender 7.1.2

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

        • greywarbler 7.1.2.1

          fender
          Brave New World, Brett and humour, what a joke. Keep up the quips, we should put down the whips now he reveals his value – a sense of humour no less. He led, and you finished in great form fender.
          I was born to lead, not to read.- Brett Dale

          (I looked up Google for interest and it has this for another Brett Dale I think, in the USA. ‘Mr. Dale is a partner with the Firm, who represents highly compensated individuals and closely held businesses in various industries.’ Don’t you love ‘the Firm’, and the euphemism ‘highly compensated’ for well paid or getting smashing salaries. And compensated for what – putting in their precious time working rather than doing other more enjoyable things. I understand there are a lot of people in the USA looking for ‘compensation’)

          • fender 7.1.2.1.1

            Now I’ve messed up the thread with the same comment going into spam folder, I’m not one for quitting and just kept going :oops:

            [lprent: chopped out two. ]

            • greywarbler 7.1.2.1.1.1

              fender
              I see what you mean. The one at 10.29 with the link was the subtlest. But the Lord loves a trier they say. That sort of dedication is what we will need in the next year.
              That’s presuming we don’t have a copy cat ‘Bananarama’-style Pacific election.

  8. woodpecker 8

    I remember Tracy Watkins running a 2/3 front page in the Waikato Tiimes around mid November 2011 banging on about the 54% for nats. Interestingly about the same time as the nat hordings all around Hamilton got a new yellow sticker saying something like “Your vote is critical”.

    • Thomas 8.1

      Voters don’t like the idea of one party governing alone. That’s why we adopted MMP. If a poll puts one party over 50%, it scares voters off. Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable and they would rather the outcome be narrower.

      If you want to sabotage National through biased polls, bias them *towards* National and scare off voters.

      • woodpecker 8.1.1

        “Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable”. The way I read that is, National polling suggested a somewhat smaller percentage than what Tracy was writing, hence the stickers. At the same time telling left voters not to bother.
        As far as your MMP “and they would rather the outcome be narrower” part. Let me just say, personally, even if I thought it was 100% certain for a left win, I will still be taking my teenagers and anyone else I can find to the polling station.

        • Thomas 8.1.1.1

          I would also vote regardless of how certain the outcome is. However, you and I are not representative of the general population. A quarter of kiwis didn’t vote in 2011.

          In both 2011 and 2002 we saw one party polling above 50% shortly before the election. But on election day we saw record-setting low turnouts and those parties needing support partners.

          Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single-party governments. Polls have shown that. That’s why we have only had coalition governments since 1996 and why Germany (which also uses MMP) has only had coalitions since 1949. Heck, that’s why we introduced MMP in the first place.

          I think National saw the risk of people staying home and that’s why they put up the “your vote is crucial” stickers.

          • woodpecker 8.1.1.1.1

            ” Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single party governments” Your linked poll says 54.1% yes to 39.0% no.
            There’s that magic 54% again.
            Cup of tea anyone? Anybody at all?
            But I am interested if the stickers popped up in other parts of the country.

      • Fisiani 8.1.2

        You seem Thomas to forget that support over 50% is not impossible given how well the National government has turned the economy from recession into growth. Record employment figures and rising wages and steadily closing the gap with Australian wages. A surge of Kiwis returning home and virtually every province booming and growing the economy even more. probable growth now 3.5%. Another 400 days of further improvement and 50% is quite unreasonable. 60% is a more realistic target. National has clearly won the heart and mind of the centre just in time for the summer barbeque season. Labour and the Greens are merely fighting for their share of the dyed in the wool socialists. When socialists despair of Labour they shift to the Greens. When they think that Labour has a chance then they shift away from the Greens. The Labour/Green bloc is stagnant. It is idiotic to think that National polling over 50% will engender complacency, the Centre is far too focused on victory to be complacent. Far more likely it will mean that not even the offer of free KFC will get the socialist vote out.
        Now if Labour had a leader like Shane Jones then it would all change, He is however loathed by the Left. I fear that Robertson is playing the long game and wishes Cunliffe to take the blame for ignominy in November 2014 and be ushered in as the leader for 2017. He will again be lazy and probably have the distinction of being the only Labour candidate to deliver party vote third place for two elections in a row.

        • Naturesong 8.1.2.1

          This.

          Despite the fact that the current govt has literally run the country into the ground;
          – record debt and deficits which will take a generation to pay back
          – turned a military spying institution which shares its data with the US on its own citizens
          – whose vision for the future is the destruction of NZ’s environment and along with it the tourism industry and the value add our food exporters are able to charge.
          – NZ taxpayer subsidies to overseas corporations
          – has stood idly by while manufacturers and exporters (along with their local supply chains) have gone to the wall
          – constant demonization of nz citizens whose only crime was to lose their job when their employers either went out of business, cut jobs to prevent going out of business, or cynically cut jobs because with the labour market as it currently is you can offer workers the choice of leaving or working extra unpaid hours to fill the gap.
          – driven down wages and increased precarious work by legislating against the right to be treated fairly in the workplace.
          – Sold off critical public utilities for next to nothing
          – missmanaged the Chch rebuild – to my mind, likely to be the biggest missed opportunity of this govt.
          – Its not been in the news yet, but there has been significant damage to the health system
          The malfeasance and incompetance of the current govt simply staggers the mind.

          BUT, over the coming year you will see the talking points displayed in the comment above repeated in blogs, radio, television and newspaper again and again. New Zealand will be flooded with these lies.
          It wont make the talking points any less false, but it will be accepted by many many people.

          The one thing this government is truly outstanding at, is propaganda.

        • David H 8.1.2.2

          Fisiani
          You should write comedy… Well you gave me a laugh.

        • KJT 8.1.2.3

          Forgetting of course, Fizzer that most of the growth is because of an earthquake and a wholly fortuitous rise in dairy prices.

          Not to mention the discreet pre-election pump priming of the economy which usually results in an interest rate and borrowing hemorrhage safely away from election year.

          And that we weathered the recession so well because of Labours saving, instead of National’s huge election bribe, tax cuts, for Hawaii holidays, and Keating’s regulation of the Aussie banks. Both policies which National would have reversed had they been in power.

  9. Thomas 9

    All the polls had National above 49% in the weeks leading up to the 2011 election. Fairfax’s poll was the worst performer at 54%. But that was performed by Research International; Fairfax have changed to Ipsos, whose record is unclear.

    I think voters just didn’t want one party governing alone. So on election day National’s support softened The same thing happened in 2002, when Labour’s 50% support softened on election day. Voters like coalitions. If anything, having the polls predicting National governing alone hurts National.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    At the end of the day, polls are imperfect. The quoted margin of error is 3.1%. (And that’s just a 95% confidence interval. i.e. at least 5% chance that the error is more than that. )

    I wouldn’t read too much into any poll; a 2% shift is not statistically significant. It’s noise.

    I dislike the fact that both sides of the political spectrum attack polls as being biased. The fact is that even a perfectly unbiased poll has error. It’s mathematically unavoidable.

  10. Armchair Critic 10

    The wrongest of the polls gets it wrong again, and that’s news? Yeah right. It’s almost like there’s a hidden agenda…

  11. chris73 11

    Translation:

    Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good, any poll showing National going up = bad

    I’d suggest all people on the left ignore this poll and instead accept that Labour/Greens have won the next election and so shouldn’t bother doing anything until the election results come in :)

    • miravox 11.1

      “Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good”

      Good news then, the poll did show Labour going up. Sometime you need to read more than the headline. Along with National, in a margin of error kinda way

      At worst the poll is neutral – taken after Key was getting his photo ops, Hooten and co questioning Cunliffe’s CV and NAct tossing in some policy in an attempt to shore up it’s social concern credentials. None of these will last

      I don’t see a problem with that poll, except it’s probably a bit blue, as history shows.

  12. Tracey 12

    Chris73

    I object to all polls and the oxygen they waste which cld otherwise be used for policy and issue elucidation

  13. gobsmacked 13

    It’s worth repeating:

    Every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Yes, EVERY published poll, not one single exception. Feel free to check.

    But then the voters turned up on election day, undermining democracy with their actual votes. Silly voters.

  14. rockape 14

    Yes Gobsmacked good of you to remember that the voters turned up on election day and gave National their vote and Labour their lowest poll in years.

  15. rockape 15

    It may be an inconvenient truth but in all the arguments about National getting less on election day than the polls predicted you seem to forget the Labour vote. A year out from the election 2011 national averaged 51% and got 47% on election day. Labour were polling 35% and got 27.5% on election day. A drop of 7.5%

    • chris73 15.1

      Who’d have thought that voters on the left tend to be more lazy then voters on the right

    • gobsmacked 15.2

      So? You think that’s a clever argument, because “RedBorg say Labour good National bad”. Not everyone is so monolithic as you and your t/roll team. Labour”s result was crap, so what? National still could not govern alone, and were dealt a mess that affects them every day in Parliament, and in the public perception.

      But thanks for reinforcing my point about the polls.

  16. rockape 16

    Just take election results . How did Labour do over 9 years, not so good! National may drop a little but compared to Labour and the Clark years they are doing surprisingly well. Labour no longer talk or even dream about a Labour Government. The best they can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first, that wouldnt be a government it would be a circus!
    When talking of polls remember they are a snapshot in time,they change! Thats why National dropped post Tea party and Labour dropped post Cuncliffe backstabbing Goeff and the where is the money farce.Both those incidences dropped their respective parties vote in the last few weeks of the election campaigne to the advantage of the Greens and NZ first.

    • gobsmacked 16.1

      Rockape, if you want a grown-up discussion about polls and predictive quality (though I suspect you really don’t), then let’s have one:

      Do you believe National will govern alone after the next election? If so, why (given the evidence cited)? If not, then who with?

      You say:

      The best Labour can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first

      But if you believe in polls’ accuracy, as you claim, then clearly that’s false. Labour plus Greens have had the numbers in all recent polls bar the Fairfax one.

      • rockape 16.1.1

        You asked for beliefs not facts. I believe that the economy and thereby jobs will grow over the next year. I believe that the health service stats and Law and order stats will continue to improve. I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National. I believe it will be Nationals turn to offfer a few smarties to the voters. The end result will be National polling enough to win the next election with an overall majority.
        You see what you dont realize is that the Greens are an albatross around the neck of Labour. That will make sure voters stay away from that dangerous alliance.

        PS why do you always feel trying to degrade those who disagree with you makes your point stronger. It doesnt it just makes you look childish.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.1.1

          Your personal opinion, eh, which by an amazing coincidence makes you sound like nothing more than a tiresome parrot reciting John Key’s mendacious bullshit.

          You people are transparent.

          We need better wingnuts.

        • Chris 16.1.1.2

          hello rocky, still dragging those knuckles I see…

        • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3

          “I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National.”

          Yeah right. If you didn’t notice, Lianne won by rather a landslide. I think the only way things would go well for National in CHCH is if they either massively change their current hands-off approach (remember they have this 50% payout offer to red-zoners in the courts right now) or if Lianne massively screws up. However Lianne won’t screw up because she is very competent, whereas National don’t look like they’re about to change direction either.

          So that’s a bit of a pipe dream.

          • rockape 16.1.1.3.1

            You watch lianne, A poletician I have a lot of time for, she will soon be sucking up to National a bit like Mayor Len Brown!

            • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3.1.1

              Er, what’s your point?

              Local government have to suck up to National government when it comes to things that they can’t afford to fund themselves, with CHCH being the obvious posterchild for needing government funds.

      • rockape 16.1.2

        Of course you are right re recent polls. Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.2.1

          Roy Morgan. Choke on it.

        • gobsmacked 16.1.2.2

          the cry is where is Cunliffe

          And this is why you get mocked.

          Repeating headlines from Sla-ter’s blog doesn’t earn you respect. It suggests you can’t think for yourself.

          There is no such cry from the people. They have lives.

          • rockape 16.1.2.2.1

            Look up the dictionary there is a difference between mocking and just insults. Its the latter that shows how shallow you are.

  17. rockape 17

    Once again when Labour supporters have no answer we see them back to the old abuse policy. Well if thats your best shot at debate you should maybe try a more adult attitude. Me ,I gave that sort of debate up when I was about 5 years old!

    • lprent 17.1

      Ah yes, you don’t handle criticism well. That is obvious. Certainly you don’t engage your brain enough to read and understand it. All of these these characteristics are obvious above.

      You must have stopped listening when you were about 5 years old and failed to let your mother finish your social education.

      I guess that is why you are still playing with your willy in public. Something that is also evident here.

      Just another whining wanker of the wight screaming about abuse because they can’t handle robust debate after stating assertions of their opinion as being “fact”. Oh well, fuckwits like you are useful for drowning out the few intelligent right wingers

      • rockape 17.1.1

        See your level is the same standard as some of your commentators why play the man not the ball. Try and keep your credibility up with some response to what i have commented on. Do you disagree that Labours polling on the average of polls in the yeaqr leading to the election was 7.5% higher than they got on election day if so reference please.
        Do you disagree that ever election since Labour got to power under Clark their vote dropped dramatically? If so were is your reference?
        Best stick to the facts of the matter your opinion of me has no more interest to me than that of the chickens in my henhouse. I am not here to win a popularity contest, just to put some facts, even if you dont like them on the table.

      • rockape 17.1.2

        Yes I am sure you have been so right (if I can use that word on this blogg) about the last election,and the one before that. It was all about nasty polls and only one poll that counts. How did that work out Mr27.5%

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 17.2

      No answer?

      Didn’t you like the way I rubbed your nose in the Roy Morgan poll? Was my pointing out your tiresome repetition of the lying Prime Minister’s attack lines a bit much?

      If you are offended I apologise :twisted:

      • rockape 17.2.1

        Roy Morgan was reflecting the interest in the Labour party post the sacking of their leader(again). The honeymoon is over lets wait and see!

        • gobsmacked 17.2.1.1

          You didn’t have long to wait.

          Should have waited before mouthing off, eh?

          • rockape 17.2.1.1.1

            I hpope your comment makes sense to you ,it doesnt to me can you explain?
            Oh I see what your at having read later comments. However if you read my remarks you will know I dont rate polls. I was suggesting we wait till election day!
            I did last time and it worked out OK.

    • Lanthanide 18.1

      That poll was published 11 days ago. You have a strange definition of “same day”.

    • karol 18.2

      That’s not the same day. Check the date at the top of the article. It’s over a week old.

    • rockape 18.3

      Mathew I think I agree with you. Polls are fickle! It just takes one stupid comment or incident in the weeks before an election and it all changes. At best they are what SOME voters think at one particular time. Both parties have a problem,and its similar for both. How to get your share of apathetic voters out to the polls. In the UK in Thatchers hayday Conservative voters thought she was a shoe in so didnt vote,Labour voters thought she was a shoe in so they didnt turn up either. The looser,democracy! Its the same in NZ, if it appears too close to call there will be a higher turnout unless both parties have lost the trust of voters. We would both be guessing if we try to predict how many of the 800 000 non voters are fro which party. I suspect a lot are Maori a few ACT and a few NZ first and the rest divided between Nat and Lab. Manna and the Greens are activist driven parties so most of their supporters will turn up.

    • Matthew 18.4

      It worries me that at least three different Matthews have commented today (myself, Hooton, and this one). I guess I need to get a new handle, especially if the other Matthews are a right-wing commentator and someone mistaking an 11 day old poll for today’s.

    • David H 18.5

      The date of publication is usually in the top left area of the screen.

  18. Francis 19

    The Fairfax poll was also the one that showed virtually no change for National following the GCSB bill, the issue which all other polls showed caused National support to drop (it still hasn’t recovered). I wouldn’t put a lot of weight on it.

    On a similar note, we’d be far better off if polls were prohibited for the 2-3 weeks leading up to the election…

  19. Vagabundo 20

    And right on cue, we’ve just had TVNZ’s Colmar-Brunton poll which puts Labour/Green level with National.

      • Vagabundo 20.1.1

        Well, neither of our assessments are inaccurate based on what’s in the C-B poll. Either way, I think we can agree that the Fairfax-Ipsos poll may be a rogue poll, or another example of its history of being somewhat inaccurate. Roy Morgan should have one coming during this week, or at the start of the next. That should give us a better idea of where the Fairfax poll stands in the grander scheme of things.

  20. mickysavage 21

    Latest Colmar Brunton just in.

    Labour steady at 36.

    National slipped two points to 45.

    The Greens climb one point to 13.

    New Zealand First remains steady on 4.

    Act and the Maori Party are stable on 1, while the Conservatives have backed up talk of being a potential coalition partner with a one point gain to 2.

    The Fairfax Ipsos poll looks like an outlier …

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/left-strong-but-labour-flat-in-latest-poll-5662060

  21. gobsmacked 22

    Poor Rockape and co. National set a new record, the shortest recovery in history. It lasted 12 hours!

    https://twitter.com/ColmarBruntonNZ/status/394693676418351104

    Labour/Greens ahead of National. As every other poll has been saying.

    • rockape 22.1

      If you read what I say I dont rate polls do I have to repeat they are only a snapshot.

      • gobsmacked 22.1.1

        But at 3.58 pm today Rockape had a different view …

        Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        Let’s cut the crap. You got over-excited about a single poll that is out of synch with all others. Now you wish you hadn’t.

        Nobody knows what will happen in an election a year from now – obviously. But we do know the trend of public opinion. It’s a rough guide, it’s flawed, it’s not exact- but it IS consistent.

        Consistently bad for National.

        • rockape 22.1.1.1

          No I expect you got carried away with the new messiah for labour, well you tried Mr sensible. the Mr Action man, Now we have a new one Mr Actor Man. The rich harvard graduate(not) pretending to be a working class bloke, Mr 12%And if you want to quote long term trends to me Try election results 2011,2008.2005,2002,1999. See any trend there for Labour . I do and its down every year !

    • rockape 22.2

      Mate to use a cunliffism. Its lasted 5 years!

  22. amirite 23

    Polls schmolls, the Colmar Brunt0n has the Nats at 45%, Labour at 34%, Greens 13%, NZ First 4%,
    Conservative (!) 2%, Maori 1%, act 1%.
    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll

  23. rockape 24

    Great news for Labour, their leader gets 12% after all that publicity of the Leadership election/. they get 34% in the polls and only a third of their supporters want Cunliffe. Whats the odds on Winston going with National,He hates the greens. Labour still out. Do you realy think Winston will play 3rd fiddle in an alliance when he could get second fiddle from National. So many questions. Thats why I hate polls!

    • Tat Loo 24.1

      DNFTT

      • rockape 24.1.1

        DNFTT can you translate, I am more that 18 years old!

        [lprent: Could have fooled me. You act like a simple child. I also see that you haven’t followed my previous advice so I won’t repeat it.

        bye bye idiot.. Nothing you have ever said on this site under any handle has been worth wasting bandwidth on – it is simple trolling. And I’m feeling intolerant today so your IP is now auto-spam.. The only person who looks at it is me ]

        • greywarbler 24.1.1.1

          Counted up rockape – 29 since 3.10 pm to 7.11 p.m. The pseudo seemed to be cropping up a bit so thought I’d do a count. Glad to see DNFTT. Last time he showed up was in August.

  24. Swan 25

    Well these results put to bed any idea of a Cunliffe bounce.

    • Olwyn 25.1

      This is not NZ’s Got Talent, and the idea of a “Cunliffe bounce” means very little. The fact is, Labour under Cunliffe is in the process of re-engaging its supporters, and the things that Labour stands for are starting to get some oxygen. As that sinks in, Labour will gain momentum, which matters far more than bounce.

  25. Matthew 26

    I noticed that tvnz’s reporting is calling a Labour/Green alliance ‘Centre-left’. Good to see that John Key’s rhetoric of communism/far-left parties hasn’t rubbed off.

  26. Disraeli Gladstone 27

    Important point to note about the Colmar Poll is:

    Labour + Green = 47%
    National + Conservative = 47%

    Key has essentially been writing love notes to Craig in the media recently. With a new electorate in Auckland, it seems likely that the Conservatives are going to get a seat. They probably will now have to be factored in.

    Which means that at the moment, we have a statistical dead heat. And we’re all going to have to go and ask Winston who is going to form the next government.

    What is interesting will be when that fact sinks into the political narrative. I’m a social liberal, economic centrist. While a National government isn’t ideal, I can find it palpable. It could be worst.

    The Conservatives as the main junior coalition partner, for instance. That would be sickening. And would probably ensure I’d never vote National in 2014. I wonder if soft National voters feel the same way.

    • Lanthanide 27.1

      Vote Labour, get Greens.

      Vote National, get Conservative.

      • Tat Loo 27.1.1

        Christian Conservative, more like.

      • millsy 27.1.2

        “Vote National, get Conservative.”

        And if you’re gay, strung up with piano wire.

        • chris73 27.1.2.1

          Seriously dude you got some issues

        • felix 27.1.2.2

          Not quite.

          But it’s fair to say that if you’re not white, rich, and living as a straight christian nuclear family you’re going to be more or less entirely excluded from social policy considerations.

          • chris73 27.1.2.2.1

            Bollix

            If Colin Craig gets in he may drag in 3-4 others in with him but thats still a big if but even if does get elected theres still the Maori party, UnitedDunne, whoevers leading Act at the time of the election and possibly WinstonFirst to go through so Colin Craigs influence will be watered down

            Colin is similar to the Greens in that he can only go with National (as the Greens will only go with Labour) and as such doesn’t have to be bribed (unlike Dunne or Winston)

            • felix 27.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope, Craig is like ACT in that he allows the Nats to do a whole lot of horrible right-wing stuff that they want to do anyway but can’t campaign on.

              • chris73

                Economically maybe (Act I mean) but I don’t see National going in for social conservatism especially when you look at John Key with his jewish background, Chris Finlayson and his homosexuality, Judith Collins and her multicultural marriage and while I have no evidence I get the feeling Joyce probably doesn’t care what people get up to in their private lives

                • felix

                  As I said, they can’t campaign on that shit. Beautifully illustrated thank you.

                  • chris73

                    I mean they don’t want to to campaign on that and they won’t be giving Colin Craig a hint to do so either…

                    • felix

                      Give Craig a hint to campaign as a socially conservative bigoted fuckwit? I don’t think you’ve been paying attention.

                      Hardly surprising though, you seem to have failed to pay attention to 70 years of National Party history too.

                      ps did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?

                    • greywarbler

                      felix
                      You are a very patient person and caring to others in need. In this case you are taking chris73 by the hand and leading him or her shambling along the path to enlightenment. A task for Sisyphus I think.

    • David H 27.2

      If Key is writing love notes to Craig then no wonder the Nats are keen to get everything sold this term. Craig is against asset sales, but I do wonder if he would become just the latest in a long line of political Hypocrites, by getting into bed with a man who has literally sold off NZ in a fire sale.

  27. ak 28

    Dear oh dear. The constant benny-bash hasn’t worked, can’t Orewa 2 because they might just need em, so it’s the two most pro-right polls on wait for it……Labour Day! With a mass online troll call-up.

    To no avail again, the poor, sad, sacks. Gazumped by Slippery Bill W. The wee wedgie party heading for a fatal poll lag going into the hols in an election year.

    Watch it Daveo – cornered rats with bottomless wallets and not a scruple between em.

  28. JLLJames 29

    You can’t discount either poll. They are only indicative. Regardless, if you take an average of the two, you can make an argument for the margin of error being eliminated.

    GLHF

  29. millsy 30

    Dont panic Labour.

    Anyway, not like you got much leadership material..

    Grant Robertson and Shane Jones…

    The ALP is going through them, to no avail (Cannot see Shorten as PM material).

    • Murray Olsen 30.1

      Cunliffe and Robertson are both better leadership material than anyone in NAct, and even Sealord Jones is as good as Key.

      • chris73 30.1.1

        Ok now thats pretty funny

      • felix 30.1.2

        Yeah I’d say Jones is about as convincing as Key, i.e. “not at all” to anyone with any nous, and “quite a bit” to morans.

      • greywarbler 30.1.3

        mo
        That’s being hopeful even generous to Jones.. The Jones boy or John boy? Both out of contention, for the vast majority of the public putting the country into wise, safe hands. And WO would get extra oxygen in a breath.

  30. finbar 31

    See todays poll says Labour have not budged since Cunliffe took over,but the Greens have lifted one.Now only a mug would ridicule this as a bad sign.If Labour where ahead by five points the Nats would be seriously considering a early election for fear of Labour and Cunliffs leadership gaining traction.Early days and looking promising.

  31. chris73 32

    “did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?”

    – Nationals a broad church and so has many different views and I seem to recall Su’a William Sio being against the bill as well

    • felix 32.1

      That’s right chris, and I would never use him as an example of a progressive.

      You on the other hand looked for examples of National being progressive (hilarious) and you picked Findlayson to demonstrate that ‘National is so progressive THEY EVEN LET A GAY IN!’

      Unfortunately you’re a moron and you picked a gay man who is so socially conservative that he votes against equal treatment for gay people.

      National is, and always has been, a party of social conservatives and bigots. Check the voting record on any socially progressive bill over the last 77 years, it bears this statement out as utterly uncontroversial and you as either totally naive or a liar.

      You may not think of yourself as conservative, but nonetheless you do support a very conservative party with a very conservative record. And the only reason they don’t openly campaign as such because their views are no longer acceptable to the majority.

      • chris73 32.1.1

        Socially liberal and economically conservative would best describe me

        • felix 32.1.1.1

          Then you’re supporting the wrong party. National MPs almost always vote socially conservative.

        • Tat Loo (CV) 32.1.1.2

          You do realise that is nothing economically “conservative” about hawking off state assets to the highest bidder, turning the lights off at the post office and having corporations come in and run prisons, right?

          I mean, if you keep doing that kind of thing, what exactly is going to be left “conserved” for the next generation to take ownership of?

    • Tangled_up 32.2

      Stop being intellectually dishonest.

      Half the MPs representing National voted against marriage equality and for the continued discrimination of people based on sexuality.

      How the hell can you claim that the National Party stands for equality and non-discrimination (progressive) when it’s loaded with Mps who don’t?

  32. Tracey 33

    Brett

    you show no leadership qualities on this site but I completely accept that you struggle to read.

  33. Crunchtime 34

    The good money is on Labour still… although it’s looking closer than it has in recent weeks.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319

    You’d expect a small amount of right-wing bias even in this – people with money to punt on ipredict tend to be more right-wing by definition.

  34. Sable 35

    I have little faith in polls one way or the other. I would say the average New Zealander would have to be a complete moron not to see the pretty obvious crimes National has committed since slithering into office. Spying on its own citizens, savage censorship, effectively neutering freedom of speech not to mention the sale of state assets and the dismal treatment of the poor and mentally ill to name a few.

    Still the next election will be telling and I suspect it will shape my opinion of what it means to be a New Zealander for better or worse.

  35. Papa Tuanuku 36

    Conservative Party getting interviewed on main TV programmes is anti democratic. They are not an elected party into the parliament, but they get a shitload of free tv time on the basis that they might get in in 2014? Or that they are friends of John Key? I’d really like people on the left to call this for what it is, the powerful and the media deciding who gets in next year, based on their own preferences and prejudices.

  36. lurgee 37

    So it looks like I was right all along, and at this stage in the election cycle it doesn’t matter if the opposition leader is a particularly smelly lump of Gorgonzola, because NOBODY WHO ISN’T TRAGIC LIKE US cares?

    (Regurgitates humble pie)

  37. gobsmacked 38

    Latest Morgan poll … left gains solidified:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5269-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2013-201310300521

    The spin on these polls gets tiresome, so let’s cut to the chase: in 2014 National CANNOT win without Winston, but Labour and the Greens COULD. That’s been clear for a long time, and the evidence consistently supports it, bar one Fairfax joke that not even John Key believes.

    And no, “could” doesn’t mean “will”. Long way to go, every reason for optinism, not complacency.

  38. lurgee 39

    Another poll confirming things are looking up?

    (Re-eats his recently regurgitated humble pie)

    At least it’s still warm!

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  • Report into Brownlee security breach should be released
    The Government and Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) should release the report into former Minister of Transport Gerry Brownlee's airport security breach, the Green Party said today."The actions of a Minister of Transport breaching security at an airport are a matter...
    Greens
  • Brownlee must ask CAA to release the report
    Gerry Brownlee must ask the Civil Aviation Authority to release the report that finds he broke the law in breaching airport security, says Labour's Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “It is inexcusable for any minister, let alone the then-Transport Minister, to...
    Labour
  • G20 climate comment increases pressure on NZ
    The G20 decision to include climate change in its communiqué despite Australia's attempt to ignore it, increases pressure on New Zealand to come up with a credible plan to cut emissions, the Green Party said today.The G20 Leaders Communiqué from...
    Greens
  • NZ joins G20 climate problem
    Confirmation this morning by John Key that his Government plans to do nothing to turn around NZ's rapidly rising greenhouse emissions means that New Zealand joins Australia as one of the problem children at the G20 meeting in Brisbane, the...
    Greens
  • IRD joins Corrections in Phillip Smith failure
    It is incomprehensible that IRD and Corrections were not able to stop Phillip Smith from rorting the tax system out of $50,000 until it was too late, given that he was a notoriously manipulative prisoner stuck in jail, says Labour’s...
    Labour
  • The Government has to listen to Olly
    When even hard boiled property investors like Olly Newland  say first home buyers have been shafted by Loan to Value Ratio lending restrictions, surely it is time for the Government to listen, says Labour's housing spokesperson Phil Twyford.  "Auckland landlord...
    Labour
  • Key used GCSB for political ends prior to 2014 election
    New documents released to the Green Party show that Prime Minister John Key used New Zealand's intelligence services for the National Party's political ends a few days out from the 2014 election, the Green Party said today.Documents released to the...
    Greens
  • Government not meeting its climate target
    The Government must front up to the fact that its own advisors are now saying that New Zealand is off target in any transition to a low carbon future, says Labour’s spokesperson on Climate Change Nanaia Mahuta.  “A briefing to...
    Labour
  • Briefing reveals Defence facilities ‘increasingly unfit for purpose’
    The Defence Briefing to the Incoming Minister reveals a deteriorating state in Defence facilities that are no longer fit for purpose, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff.  “The briefing is heavily censored but still reveals that Defence camps, bases and...
    Labour
  • New projections show New Zealand missing climate target
    Briefings to Incoming Ministers released today reveal the Government's climate policy is failing with projected emission more than double what is needed to meet National's 2050 target, the Green Party saidProjections released by the Ministry for the Environment, as part...
    Greens
  • National’s highways far less efficient
    National’s new state highways have a far lower cost-benefit ratio than motorways built under the last Labour Government, making a mockery of the Government’s bluster that its road building will boost the economy, says Labour's Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “New...
    Labour
  • Governor points finger at National on supply
    The Reserve Bank Governor has admitted he had to keep loan to value mortgage restrictions in place because the Government’s attempts to increase housing has fallen ‘a long way short’, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The thousands of first...
    Labour
  • Did Collins cover up Slater’s OIA requests?
    Disgraced former Cabinet Minister Judith Collins must explain why she appears to have tried to hide Official Information Act requests she fulfilled for Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater, Labour MP Megan Woods says. “New documents obtained by Labour show Judith...
    Labour
  • Reserve Bank’s dairy warning must be heard
    The Reserve Bank’s warning that falling dairy prices are creating greater risks for the New Zealand economy must be taken seriously by Bill English and John Key, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “Dairy prices have nearly halved since February...
    Labour
  • National’s housing failure keeps LVRs in place
    The Reserve Bank’s decision to leave loan-to-value ratio mortgage restrictions in place is further confirmation of National’s housing policy fiasco, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Reserve Bank would have lifted LVRs if they had seen any increase in...
    Labour
  • Let’s see if it is plane sailing Mr Bridges
    Comments by Transport Minister Simon Bridges that Far North residents' anger over cutbacks to regional flights will be allayed by larger planes and cheaper fares out of Kerikeri, are just pure arrogance, says Labour’s Te Tai Tokerau MP Kelvin Davis....
    Labour
  • Commerce Commission inquiry needed into building supplies monopoly
    The Commerce Commission must stop dragging the chain and urgently investigate the anti-competitive practices in the building industry that are driving up the cost of building materials, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Competition in the building materials market is...
    Labour
  • Air New Zealand grounds Far North
    The announcement by Air New Zealand to close services from Kaitaia to Auckland will be an absolute disaster for the Far North, Labour MP for Te Tai Tokerau Kelvin Davis says.  “Air New Zealand is sending a signal to the...
    Labour
  • Pulling West Coast flights a savage blow
    Air New Zealand’s decision to withdraw its Westport service is another kick in the guts for an already struggling community, West Coast-Tasman MP, Damien O’Connor says.   “Having been involved in the West Coast’s efforts to get Air Nelson to return...
    Labour
  • Air NZ cuts economic lifelines to neglected regions
    Air New Zealand’s plans to cut its Eagle Air regional services to already struggling regions is a hammer blow to Westport, Whakatane and Kaitaia, says Labour's Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The regions of New Zealand are being abandoned by this...
    Labour
  • Christchurch on the rent rack
    A jump of 20 per cent in weekly rents in the past year is a disaster for Christchurch, says Associate Housing spokesperson Poto Williams. “The Trade Me Property Rental Price index has rightly described the city as being a ‘...
    Labour
  • Past time to act on warnings about palliative care
    Health officials have been warning the Government about a critical shortage of palliative care specialists for years, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader and Health spokesperson Annette King says. A stocktake carried out for the Ministry of Health shows New Zealand’s end...
    Labour
  • Report must spur Government into action
    The soaring cost of domestic violence and child abuse highlight the need for the Government to prioritise and act on the issue, says Labour's spokesperson for Social Development, Sue Moroney.“Findings from the Glenn Inquiry that show the problem is estimated...
    Labour
  • Family safety paramount, then urgent review
    Corrections Minister Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga has some serious questions to answer over why a dangerous prison escapee, convicted of further crimes while in jail, managed to abscond while he was on approved temporary release, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.“Phillip...
    Labour
  • LVRs a failed experiment from Bill English
    Loan to value mortgage restrictions are a failed experiment from Bill English to tame Auckland house prices, that have caused collateral damage to first home buyers and other regions, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The possible end of LVR...
    Labour
  • Govt books getting worse as economy slows
    National’s economic credibility is under serious scrutiny with its search for surplus becoming harder due to an economy far too reliant on the dairy industry, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “National promised New Zealanders would get into surplus by...
    Labour
  • Kiwis in pain because of Government underfunding
    New research showing one in three people needing elective surgery are being denied publicly-funded operations shows the Government must properly fund the health sector, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “For almost two years Labour has been warning about the...
    Labour
  • National’s promised surplus looking doubtful
    Budget figures for the first quarter of the financial year released today by Treasury show the Government's goal of achieving a budget surplus is looking doubtful, the Green Party said today."National has staked its credibility on achieving a budget surplus...
    Greens
  • Kevin Hague speaks on the Gambling Amendment Bill (No 3)
    I rise to give this speech on behalf of Denise Roche, who handles the gambling portfolio for the Green Party. This bill deals with class 4 gambling—pokies in pubs and clubs—and it is the result of changes that were suggested...
    Greens
  • Kevin Hague speaks on the Health (Protection) Amendment Bill
    I would like to start off where the previous speaker left off, on the issue of balancing rights or balancing harms. All law is in some way a restriction of personal liberty. That is the point of law. When we...
    Greens
  • Joyce backs away from yet another target
    Steven Joyce has backed away from two targets in two days, refusing to acknowledge that his Government has an unambitious aim to get unemployment down to 4 per cent in 11 years’ time, says Labour Associate Finance spokesperson David Clark....
    Labour
  • Pacific peoples incomes and jobs falling under National
    The Minister of Pacific Peoples is attempting to bury the ugly facts of Pacific unemployment and income levels worsening since National took office in 2008, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson, Su’a William Sio. “If the Minister doesn’t acknowledge how bad...
    Labour
  • Annette King? Annette King?? Surely not Annette King!
    I’m not often surprised at the goings on in the Labour Party but I was gobsmacked to see Andrew Little has appointed Annette King as Deputy Leader of the parliamentary Labour Party. I had idly assumed the role would go to Adhern...
    The Daily Blog
  • New Shadow Cabinet – Little does more in 6 days than Goff, Shearer & ...
    New Zealanders do not respect intelligence, they respect confidence. Cunliffe beat Key in the debates, but it didn’t matter because NZers don’t respect the debate, they respect the tone. Our anti-intellecuatlism runs deeper than most with our reverse-egalitarianism. The chip...
    The Daily Blog
  • This weeks Waatea news column – The myths white people tell themselves
      This weeks Waatea news column – The myths white people tell themselves...
    The Daily Blog
  • The irony of backlash to petrol stations charging workers for stolen petrol
    You have to laugh at NZers sometimes. you really do. The outrage that has been sparked by news that workers at petrol stations are charged for stolen petrol is one of those perfect examples of a delicious irony most NZers...
    The Daily Blog
  • A Dishonest “Countering Terrorist Fighters Bill”
    Wouldn’t you think a Countering Terrorist Fighters Bill would actually mention “terrorist fighters” in its text? The Bill, as released yesterday, does not. It’s simply another generalised counter-terrorism exercise giving extra surveillance powers to the Security Intelligence Service and enabling...
    The Daily Blog
  • How biased is the media? A Patrick Gower case study
    . . . Isn’t it interesting that Patrick Gower – who made his partisan feelings crystal clear on Twitter on 29 May with this extraordinary outburst;  “Lalia Harré – you make me feel sick by how you are rorting MMP...
    The Daily Blog
  • The C Word
    It isn’t even December but the decorations are up and the ads are on the telly. I am a genuine Grinch come this time of year, so when the conversation at work turned to everyone’s holidays plans I may have...
    The Daily Blog
  • Honouring the Ampatuan massacre victims as fight for justice goes on
    A grim reminder of the Maguindanao, or Ampatuan, massacre on 23 November 2014. Photo: DanRogayan A TOP Filipino investigative journalist will be speaking about the “worst attack” on journalists in history and her country’s culture of impunity in a keynote...
    The Daily Blog
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – what are they afraid of: the erosion of democ...
    Today the Hamilton City Council has put on a big party to celebrate the 150th anniversary of European colonisation of the area.  There have been a series of events during the year to mark this event, including a civic ceremony. ...
    The Daily Blog
  • #JohnKeyHistory
    John Key has done it again. This week our lovely Prime Minister has showed us how little he knows about the history of the country he is supposed to be running. Apparently “New Zealand was settled peacefully”. Was it really?...
    The Daily Blog
  • G20 growth targets and growth model offer more problems than they solve
    At the recent G20 in Brisbane, member countries agreed to accelerate growth to an additional 2% on top of current trajectories. But ongoing public sector cuts, asset sales, and reducing workers’ rights indicate that at least part of the growth...
    The Daily Blog
  • GUEST BLOG: Bill Courtney – Charter Schools: The Shroud of Secrecy Contin...
    The Ministry of Education yesterday released another batch of information relating to the five existing charter schools and the four new ones proposed for opening in 2015. As we have seen before, the release of such information, often requested under...
    The Daily Blog
  • EXCLUSIVE: Campaign reflection, Laila Harré reaching out for radical minds
    Today I’ve announced that I will be stepping down from the Internet Party leadership in December. This will happen once options for the future have been developed for discussion and decision among members. My absolute focus in this election was...
    The Daily Blog
  • The Ebola crisis, capitalism and the Cuban medical revolution
    “Ebola emerged nearly 40 years ago. Why are clinicians still empty-handed, with no vaccines and no cure? Because Ebola has been, historically, geographically confined to poor African nations. The R&D incentive is virtually non-existent. A profit-driven industry does not invest...
    The Daily Blog
  • MEDIA WATCH: TVNZ Reveals Insane Deadlines For Māori and Pacific Island Pr...
    Last Tuesday, November 18th, TVNZ requested proposals from producers for the four Māori and Pacific Island programmes they will no longer be making in-house. Marae, Waka Huia, Fresh and Tagata Pasifika will keep their existing names, existing formats and existing...
    The Daily Blog
  • The Daily Blog Breakfast Club Ep. 1
    TDB Video, Live from Verona Cafe on K-Rd, Auckland – a weekly current affairs show with TDB Editor Martyn Bradbury. This week’s panel: Chris Trotter & Selwyn Manning.The issues: 1 – What now for the New Labour leader? 2 –...
    The Daily Blog
  • Performance-demonstration at Auckland’s High Court to demand justice for ...
    People outraged at the lack of justice in the so-called ‘Roast Busters’ case and 99% of other rape cases in this country are holding a visually powerful mass action at the Auckland High Court at 1 o’clock on Saturday. They...
    The Daily Blog
  • IES vote may weaken defense of public education
    PPTA announced today that secondary teachers have voted to include the IES (Investing in Education Success) as a variation to their collective employment agreement with the government. At one level it’s an understandable decision by PPTA members because through engaging in a consultation...
    The Daily Blog
  • NZ History lesson on Planet Key – the lies white people tell themselves
    John Key’s bizarre claims about our ‘peaceful history’ comes across like the apartheid history of South Africa where white people discovered Africa first… New Zealand ‘settled peacefully’ – PM New Zealand was “settled peacefully” by the British, the prime minister...
    The Daily Blog
  • Universal Basic Income and Labour Policy
    On Radio New Zealand’s None-to-Noon on Wednesday (19 November), new Labour leader Andrew Little intimated that he would like to put Universal Basic Income (UBI) on his policy agenda (What policy changes will Andrew Little usher in?) Predictably Kathryn Ryan, despite being...
    The Daily Blog
  • The New Notes : They Ain’t Mint
    Hulk Queen Angry. Hulk Queen smash.   Yesterday, the Reserve Bank announced its new designs for our banknotes. Now, I’ve historically been pretty sketch about this entire process; variously feeling affronted that the government could find eighty million dollars to fund a...
    The Daily Blog
  • MSM under-mining of new Labour Leader already begun?
    . . It did not take long. In fact, on the same day that Andrew Little won the Labour leadership*, the first media reporter was already asking if he would be stepping down  if Labour failed to lift in the...
    The Daily Blog
  • GUEST BLOG: Simon Buckingham – invisible disability voices
    Today I am ranting. The Disability Advisory Group has been announced by Auckland Council. This is the body that represents the interests and views of people with disabilities in Auckland. Whilst I would not have applied this time as I...
    The Daily Blog
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Andrew Little
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Andrew Little...
    The Daily Blog
  • Why labelling Little as a ‘Unionist’ is a joke and how he beats Key in ...
    The line being used to attack Andrew Little as a ‘Unionist’ is just an absurd joke, and it comes from people who clearly don’t understand the modern NZ Union movement. Andrew ran the EPM Bloody U, they are easily one...
    The Daily Blog
  • 5AA Australia – Labour’s New Leader + China’s President In New Zealan...
    Recorded on 20/11/14 – Captured Live on Ustream.tv. 5AA’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning.ISSUE ONE: The New Zealand Labour Party has elected its new leader, the vote going to a third round after no clear outright winner was found in...
    The Daily Blog
  • Did Roger Sutton think he was running the Rock Radio Station?
    Visible G-String Fridays? Full body hugs? Jokes about who you would and wouldn’t have sex with? Honey? Sweety? It’s like Roger thought he was running the Rock Radio Station, not a Government Public Service department set up to rebuild a...
    The Daily Blog
  • US Politics
      US Politics...
    The Daily Blog
  • Amnesty International – The conversation that needs to be had with China
    Caption: Police officer watching Hong Kong pro-democracy march, 01 July 2014 © Amnesty International    Yesterday’s edition of The New Zealand Herald features an open letter to all New Zealander’s from Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China. Along...
    The Daily Blog
  • GUEST BLOG: Patrick O’Dea – “Liar”
    LIAR! ‘Privatised social housing to benefit tenants’ English “Housing Corp was a poor performer and about a third of its housing stock was the wrong size, in poor condition and in the wrong place. That stock was worth about $5...
    The Daily Blog
  • Too Close For Comfort: Reflections on Andrew Little’s narrow victory over...
    THE TRAGIC SCREENSHOT of “Gracinda” in defeat bears eloquent testimony to the bitter disappointment of the Grant Robertson-led faction of the Labour Party. And, yes, ‘Party’ is the right word. The Robertson machine has now extended its influence well beyond...
    The Daily Blog
  • How to defeat child poverty
      How to defeat child poverty...
    The Daily Blog
  • Little’s Shadow Cabinet
    Now the horror of trying to pacify the factions begins. The only thing Little’s new shadow cabinet must do is create the pretence of unity. The reason voters didn’t flock to Labour wasn’t the bloody CGT or Superannuation, it was...
    The Daily Blog
  • A pilgrimage with my sister – Rethink the System
    We’ve both wanted to do a pilgrimage for many years. But, unlike many modern pilgrims, we wanted to be pilgirms in our own country and get closer to our communities, rather than seek greater distance from them. We are both...
    The Daily Blog
  • Lack of policy ambition is Andrew Little’s main problem
    I’ve met Andrew Little a few times and he’s a pleasant man who will make a reasonable job leading what the Labour Party has become in recent decades. He will preside over a much less divided caucus and will be...
    The Daily Blog
  • Journos, film makers, media freedom advocates join Asia-Pacific political j...
    A candlelight vigil for the 58 victims of the 2009 Maguindanao massacre – 32 of them media people. Still no justice for them today. Renowned investigative journalists, film makers, academics and media freedom campaigners from across the Asia-Pacific region will...
    The Daily Blog
  • And the new Labour Leader is ZZZZZZZZZZ
    The victory lap by Caucus over the members choice of Cunliffe has ended and the new leader of the Labour Party is Andrew Little. Yawn. The dullness and caution of the latest Leadership race will be served well by Andrew,...
    The Daily Blog
  • Allow the Facts to Get in the Way of the Neolib Stories
    One of the weaknesses of the political left in New Zealand over the last 30 years has been to allow the neoliberal storytellers to get away with lots of fibs and half-fibs. On TVNZ’s Q+A on 16 November, in a...
    The Daily Blog
  • Defending The Boomers: A Response to Chloe King
    THE BABY-BOOM GENERATION (49-68 year-olds) currently numbers just under a quarter of New Zealand’s population. Even so, there is a pervasive notion that the generation of New Zealanders born between the end of World War II and the mid-1960s exercises...
    The Daily Blog
  • This weeks Waatea news column – Waitangi Tribunal ruling enshrines Treaty...
      This weeks Waatea news column – Waitangi Tribunal ruling enshrines Treaty as a living document...
    The Daily Blog
  • Key now says SAS will be needed to protect ‘trainers’ behind the wire
    Well, well, well. What do we have here? Government could send SAS to Iraq New Zealand’s elite Special Air Service (SAS) could be deployed to Iraq to protect Kiwi troops sent to train local forces. Prime Minister John Key confirmed...
    The Daily Blog
  • Do You Want to Build a Meth Lab? (Frozen x Breaking Bad Parody)
    Do You Want to Build a Meth Lab? (Frozen x Breaking Bad Parody)...
    The Daily Blog
  • Soft soap for the rich – harsh taxes for the poor
    It’s no surprise to see New Zealand has one of the world’s lowest tax rates for the rich and the superrich. A survey by the global accounting network UHY shows New Zealand’s highest tax rates are lower than even Australia,...
    The Daily Blog
  • Phillip Smith and the rehabilitation process
    The dominant media narrative in horrible murder cases is that the perpetrator is unlikely ever to be rehabilitated. When it appears the offender may get parole the media turns first to family members of the victim who commonly (and understandably)...
    The Daily Blog
  • The Nation review: Finlayson’s terrifying definition of who is on terror ...
    Terrifying Nation today on TV3. Chris Finlayson is on justifying the Government’s Muslim fear mongering and extension of even more surveillance powers. It was jaw dropping. Finlayson says ‘alienated people with a chip on their shoulder’ is the threshold to get...
    The Daily Blog
  • A brief word on The Block NZ
    Is it just me or did The Block manage to sum up everything that is wrong about our culture and economy? Fetishised property speculation as mass entertainment in a country of homelessness & poverty. I wonder if State House tenants...
    The Daily Blog
  • Waitangi Tribunal ruling
    That spluttering choking sound of a thousand rednecks being informed Maori still have sovereignty is a hilarious cacophony of stupid… Crown still in charge: Minister Chris Finlayson on Waitangi Treaty ruling The Waitangi Tribunal’s finding that Maori chiefs who signed...
    The Daily Blog
  • A brief word on Phillip Smith
    We can arrest student loan & fine defaulters at the airport – but not convicted child molesting killers? Before we ban manufactured ISIS ‘terrorists’ from having passports, how about we just manage to stop child molesting killers from fleeing first?...
    The Daily Blog
  • Free Me From Religion
          The meeting begins – or at least it’s supposed to begin – but someone interrupts proceedings. She wants everyone to pray with their heads bowed while she can “thank our Father who art in Heaven.” I close...
    The Daily Blog
  • Key capitulates on TPPA while big money NZ set up propaganda fund
    So Key has capitulated on the ‘gold standard’ of free trade deals… The primary objective for New Zealand at Apec was to see some urgency injected into the TPP talks and to keep leaders aiming for a high quality deal....
    The Daily Blog
  • The Warehouse & Noel Leeming Praised for Principled Stand
    Family First NZ is congratulating The Warehouse and Noel Leeming for reinforcing their ‘family-friendly values’ by removing R18 games and DVD’s from its shelves, and is calling on other retailers including JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman and Dick Smith...
    Scoop politics
  • PM’s Post-Cab on Iain Rennie, China and the Smith Inquiry
    In a press conference held today in Wellington, Prime Minister John Key answered questions regarding Iain Rennie’s potential resignation, the independent inquiry into the Smith/Traynor escape, and recent trade deals with China....
    Scoop politics
  • Safety Week 2014 focused on a safe summer
    ACC’s annual Safety Week kicks off today. With summer just around the corner, Safety Week this year is focusing on keeping safe when playing sport, enjoying recreational activities or drinking alcohol....
    Scoop politics
  • Safety focus during motorcycle month
    As the Central District Police annual Month of Motorcycles campaign cruises into its second week, the results so far have been positive with many motorcyclists playing their part to keep our roads safe....
    Scoop politics
  • Insane Law Perverting Course of Justice: SST
    Insane Law Perverting Course of Justice: SST The Sensible Sentencing Trust is slamming a decision which may acquit a Whakatane offender of serious dangerous driving charges....
    Scoop politics
  • Taranaki Base Hospital draped in white ribbons
    Taranaki Base Hospital draped in white ribbons to show violence towards women is never OK...
    Scoop politics
  • Family Violence Intervention Team uses social media
    Family Violence Intervention Team uses social media to say “no” to domestic violence Everyone has the right to feel safe at home. Many do not. One in three partnered New Zealand women report having experienced physical and/or sexual intimate partner...
    Scoop politics
  • Smoke Alarms in Rental properties
    TPA says recent calls for mandatory smoke alarm installations in rental properties is an opportunity for all parties to come together to improve the safety and quality of rental housing....
    Scoop politics
  • CTU will not engage in Governments sham consultation process
    Today the CTU has sent a letter to Prime Minister John Key articulating serious concerns about both the content and the rushed process the Government has clearly signalled it intends to follow to progress the Countering Terrorist Fighters Legislation...
    Scoop politics
  • Job vacancies steady in October
    The number of skilled job vacancies advertised online remained steady in October across most industry groups and occupations, according to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s latest Jobs Online report....
    Scoop politics
  • 600 Slaves And Counting on New Zealand Soil
    The 2014 Global Slavery Index has just been released, and buried within its pages is New Zealand’s growing issue of human exploitation and slavery. When taken in conjunction with the US State Department’s Trafficking in Persons Report 2014,...
    Scoop politics
  • Statement from Police Commissioners of Australia and NZ
    Media Statement from Police Commissioners of Australia and New Zealand: Police Commissioners take a stand against violence against women and children...
    Scoop politics
  • NZ Police Commissioner makes a stand against Family Violence
    New Zealand Police Commissioner Mike Bush has joined with his Australian Police Commissioner colleagues at Parliament House in Canberra this morning to take a stand on violence against women and children....
    Scoop politics
  • Amnesty International campaigns for end to domestic violence
    Amnesty International will be making a donation of over $500 to Aviva (formerly known as Women’s Refuge Christchurch) at the conclusion of Tuesday’s inner city march against domestic violence....
    Scoop politics
  • Waka Hourua celebrates what’s working in suicide prevention
    On 19 and 20 November, Māori and Pasifika national suicide prevention programme Waka Hourua held its first national hui-fono in Auckland. The theme was Whakarauika Mai: Bringing Communities Together to Prevent Suicide in Aotearoa. ...
    Scoop politics
  • Domestic violence problem bigger than Sky Tower
    Domestic violence problem bigger than Sky Tower SKYCITY’s Sky Tower in Auckland will be lit up in white on Monday evening Nov 25th at 10pm, on the eve of White Ribbon Day. The anti-domestic violence network SAFTINET (Safer Auckland Families...
    Scoop politics
  • State Services Commissioner ‘unfit for the job’ says Little
    State Services Commissioner ‘unfit for the job’ says Little The new Labour leader Andrew Little has called for the State Services Commissioner Iain Rennie to be stood down after his handling of the Roger Sutton sexual harassment case. "The idea...
    Scoop politics
  • Patrick Gower interviews Laila Harre
    Patrick Gower interviews Laila Harre Headlines: Laila Harre to quit as Internet Party leader by Christmas when the party has completed its review, but would love to return to parliament Says party considering options for its future including winding...
    Scoop politics
  • Lisa Owen interviews Labour leader Andrew Little
    Lisa Owen interviews Labour leader Andrew Little Headlines: Andrew Little says the shape of his front-bench for the 2017 election may not be clear until the end of next year Indicates next week’s appointments may be temporary: “So I may...
    Scoop politics
  • Phillip John Smith – statement
    Police and the New Zealand Embassy in Brasilia are aware of a decision from the Brazil Federal Court requiring the deportation of Phillip Smith within 10 days. Further assessment is required to ensure there is a full understanding of this...
    Scoop politics
  • Green’s ‘not speaking out about human rights abuses in China
    Right to Life challenges Russell Norman the co-leader of the Green Party to explain why, he was prepared to ask Prime Minister John Key to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping about human rights abuses in countries bordering China but...
    Scoop politics
  • Goodfellow congratulates Key on IDU election
    Goodfellow congratulates Key on IDU election National Party President Peter Goodfellow has congratulated Prime Minister John Key on his election today as Chairman of the International Democrat Union (IDU)....
    Scoop politics
  • Taxpayers’ Union Congratulates PM on IDU Appointment
    The Taxpayers’ Union is today congratulating Rt. Hon. John Key on becoming the Chair of the International Democrat Union , as former Australian Prime Minister John Howard retires from the role after 12 years. Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director...
    Scoop politics
  • High demand for Consumer NZ’s “Do Not Knock” stickers
    Consumer NZ has distributed nearly 100,000 “Do Not Knock” stickers since the launch of its campaign to fight back against dodgy door-to-door sellers.The “Do Not Knock” campaign was launched on 3 November 2014. Free “Do Not Knock” stickers...
    Scoop politics
  • Phillip Smith decision still pending
    Detective Superintendent Mike Pannett is returning to Washington DC where he will continue to closely monitor a pending decision from the Brazilian authorities on the process to return Phillip Smith to New Zealand....
    Scoop politics
  • High Court demonstration to demand justice
    People outraged at the lack of justice in the so-called ‘Roast Busters’ case and 99% of other rape cases in this country are holding a visually powerful mass action at the Auckland High Court at 1 o’clock on Saturday. They...
    Scoop politics
  • NZ Society Wins Global Award For Fighting Animal Testing
    New Zealand banning animal testing of legal highs has been acknowledged with an award given in London. The New Zealand Anti-Vivisection Society (NZAVS) was awarded the 2014 LUSH Prize for lobbying against animal testing. The prize was given at the...
    Scoop politics
  • Poor govt advice to workers on petrol station drive-offs
    The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions has raised concerns with the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment ('MBIE') regarding their reported advice to workers about the petrol station drive away issue....
    Scoop politics
  • New Ombudsman opinion
    The Ombudsman has published his opinion on a complaint concerning the Police refusal to release information about a charging decision....
    Scoop politics
  • Kindergarten support staff achieve pay rise in tough climate
    The valuable contribution of kindergarten support staff has been recognised with a pay increase, despite the significant funding cuts that the kindergarten associations are experiencing....
    Scoop politics
  • Democracy and Conservative Religion: The Case of Islam
    “Is Islam compatible with democracy?” is a frequently-asked question. Recent rethinking of secularism and democracy have opened up new possibilities to think about religion and democracy. This question is important particularly in the case...
    Scoop politics
  • NZ fiscal watchdog needed to guard the public purse
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  • Children’s Plea
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