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The only response needed

Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.

At 6.5% off, that was the least accurate of the bunch.

The drop from that poll to now in the Fairfax is 4.5%. If you translate that to the actual starting point, National’s down to around 43%, which is what the other, competent, polls show.

I doubt the latest Fairfax brainfart will be a “major blow” anyone’s morale.

Updated: The Colmar-Brunton poll on the same day contradicts the shifts and the percentages in the Fairfax poll. It also covers the same 19th-23rd of October time period.

162 comments on “The only response needed”

  1. Michael Vally:

    Dear oh dear oh dear.

    Thats four dears.

    Your like a repug who watches faux news, you only take notice on the polls that have your guys doing well, (which havent been a lot for labour over the years)

    Keep ya head in the sand, big boy.

    BTW, what are the trends saying?

  2. Policy Parrot 2

    I would be interested in Fairfax publishing their methodology for their polling; specifically:

    - Time of the day called,
    - Whether mobiles are called or not,
    - Call-backs if busy or NCA are performed, or such pollee’s are discarded

    The problem really lies with the associated spin, which drives the next news cycle. If such a premise is based on false assumptions, it can become a bit of a self-fulfilling tendency (i.e. if voters think there is no contest, why bother considering an alternative, unless obviously motivated?)

    • Te Reo Putake 2.1

      Sample size? One

      Time of day? Just after the editorial meeting at Granny finishes.

      Mobiles? Not needed, the Herald operator puts us straight through to the editor.

      Call backs? Also not needed; once the editor gives the instructions, we know what numbers to write.

      Edit, first person to spot the obvious mistake wins a chocolate fish. I put it down to typing through tears.

    • Steve 2.2

      Also how often do they Poll? My quick look back over the last year shows Fairfax trend was to poll every 3 months Nov 28th -3 Dec 2012, Feb 10-14 2013,May 19-23 2013,Aug 12-25 2013, Suddenly we have a 2 month poll (Oct 19-23) taken before the latest Asset Sale flop and a week before Labour’s annual conference in Christchurch which makes front page headlines on Labour Day. Interesting

    • Anon 2.3

      As someone who once worked on these polls for Ipsos/Fairfax, I can give a little bit of information on this. In May, the last polling period I have the records for, the times called were:
      Sunday – 19th May (AM) 9:30am-3:00pm
      Sunday – 19th May (PM) 3:00pm- 9:00pm
      Monday – 20th May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Tuesday – 21st May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Wednesday – 22nd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Thursday – 23rd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      No mobile phones were called in the time I worked there. Callbacks if someone was busy were regularly undertaken. The work environment was professional and there was no obvious conservative bias (though all of their polls seem to show one, I suspect because of the very nature of landline polling.)

      • Thanks very much for that. I always figured Fairfax’s rightward spin was a result of demographic biases in their methods, rather than outright bias or shoddy work overall, but it’s nice to have it confirmed. The landline bias would certainly contribute.

      • the pigman 2.3.2

        Oh come on Farrar, I know the private polling business is drying up, but Fairfax?! Really…?

    • David H 2.4

      This is all I could find. Random Phone indeed. I would presume that they also only do Landlines.

      http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/fairfax-ipsos-poll-october-2013/

  3. phil 3

    The comments on the Fairfax website were telling. Pro Nat comments were given 5 thumbs up, while the very next (anti) Nat comments received 5 or 6 thumbs down. Clearly indicates the bias of that network. ho hum…

    • Francis 3.1

      Since it hasn’t been posted anywhere on this page, this is where the results (and comments) are located: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour

      See a lot of comments implying that somehow, National’s policies are moderate while Labour’s are somehow extreme. My bias view would say that it’s the other way around (National are far-right, particularly economically while Labour is somewhere around center-left/left), but I guess they’re probably at around the same level. That would mean the 2014 election will be a clear vote between left- and right-wing policies, rather than the usual ones where there’s not much difference between the two main parties.

      If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

      • Tat Loo (CV) 3.1.1

        If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

        It probably more represents the demographic who most visit Stuff and NZ Herald online i.e. persons earning >$60K pa.

        What I see in the big lift in the last 2 Roy Morgans is that a lot of New Zealanders are not fooled by the MSM droning on, but were waiting for a clearly defined Opposition alternative to show up.

        • Sir Cullen's Sidekick 3.1.1.1

          Yeah only Roy Morgan poll is reliable as it shows Labour winning.. Good one.

        • miravox 3.1.1.2

          I think they are manipulated by the propaganda of the government regurgitated by the media. It doesn’t help that people born in 70s and onwards haven’t seen a proper left-wing government. I think Clark was proudly centrist.

          When we moved to Austria, we were stunned by how ‘left-wing’ this place is – as have been all our NZ visitors. We have to remind ourselves that this country is under a government that is a grand coalition of the equivalent of NZ’s Labour and National, so is by definition ‘centrist’. (Vienna itself is the equivalent of a Labour-Green coalition).

          National really is far-right, economically, by comparison.

      • Wayne 3.1.2

        You need to get out more if you think NZ is in the grip of a far right government (though at least you admit it is in part your bias).

        • KJT 3.1.2.1

          You are correct Wayne, A bunch of thieving wannabee Fascists, is a better description.

          • Wayne 3.1.2.1.1

            Try telling that to potential voters and see how far you get. Unless of course you think the half of NZer’s are in fact thieving fascists, or deluded pawns.

            • greywarbler 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Maybe they are thieving pawns or deluded fascists. That is up for study and discussion. Good if we can refute it.

            • KJT 3.1.2.1.1.2

              No. The majority of New Zealanders are misled pawns.

              Misled by the highly effective propaganda, and re-writing of history, of the neo-liberal religion.

              Unfortunately not many now are old enough to remember how much better off we were under genuinely socialist Governments. Before our “unfortunate experiment”.

              People like Mike Moore, Don Brash, maybe Rodney Hide and yourself, perhaps, genuinely believe in that religion and have the best of intentions. Like many religious people. Not much difference from the, “happy clappy”, cult followers who try and attract people off the streets.

              The Neo-liberal fascists, like all cult leaders, are happy to use the misled and the “true believers” to advance their socially destructive, but personally lucrative, agenda.

  4. Tat Loo (CV) 4

    As noted in Open Mike, Fairfax are using a different polling company than pre 2011 elections.

  5. Tracey 5

    Do they publish the questions?

    Brett given how easily you dismiss all keys lies your opinion has limitations.

  6. Disraeli Gladstone 6

    At this rate, if all parties and partisans can ignore the polls and write them off without a comment, that would be great. Because I’m getting tired of the staggering level of ignorance on statistics from 8 out of 10 people.

  7. Tracey 7

    Brett. Read the honest man thread and tell me which lies you accept amongst those listed.

    • Tracey:

      I was born to lead, not to read.

      • fender 7.1.1

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

      • fender 7.1.2

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

        • greywarbler 7.1.2.1

          fender
          Brave New World, Brett and humour, what a joke. Keep up the quips, we should put down the whips now he reveals his value – a sense of humour no less. He led, and you finished in great form fender.
          I was born to lead, not to read.- Brett Dale

          (I looked up Google for interest and it has this for another Brett Dale I think, in the USA. ‘Mr. Dale is a partner with the Firm, who represents highly compensated individuals and closely held businesses in various industries.’ Don’t you love ‘the Firm’, and the euphemism ‘highly compensated’ for well paid or getting smashing salaries. And compensated for what – putting in their precious time working rather than doing other more enjoyable things. I understand there are a lot of people in the USA looking for ‘compensation’)

          • fender 7.1.2.1.1

            Now I’ve messed up the thread with the same comment going into spam folder, I’m not one for quitting and just kept going :oops:

            [lprent: chopped out two. ]

            • greywarbler 7.1.2.1.1.1

              fender
              I see what you mean. The one at 10.29 with the link was the subtlest. But the Lord loves a trier they say. That sort of dedication is what we will need in the next year.
              That’s presuming we don’t have a copy cat ‘Bananarama’-style Pacific election.

  8. woodpecker 8

    I remember Tracy Watkins running a 2/3 front page in the Waikato Tiimes around mid November 2011 banging on about the 54% for nats. Interestingly about the same time as the nat hordings all around Hamilton got a new yellow sticker saying something like “Your vote is critical”.

    • Thomas 8.1

      Voters don’t like the idea of one party governing alone. That’s why we adopted MMP. If a poll puts one party over 50%, it scares voters off. Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable and they would rather the outcome be narrower.

      If you want to sabotage National through biased polls, bias them *towards* National and scare off voters.

      • woodpecker 8.1.1

        “Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable”. The way I read that is, National polling suggested a somewhat smaller percentage than what Tracy was writing, hence the stickers. At the same time telling left voters not to bother.
        As far as your MMP “and they would rather the outcome be narrower” part. Let me just say, personally, even if I thought it was 100% certain for a left win, I will still be taking my teenagers and anyone else I can find to the polling station.

        • Thomas 8.1.1.1

          I would also vote regardless of how certain the outcome is. However, you and I are not representative of the general population. A quarter of kiwis didn’t vote in 2011.

          In both 2011 and 2002 we saw one party polling above 50% shortly before the election. But on election day we saw record-setting low turnouts and those parties needing support partners.

          Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single-party governments. Polls have shown that. That’s why we have only had coalition governments since 1996 and why Germany (which also uses MMP) has only had coalitions since 1949. Heck, that’s why we introduced MMP in the first place.

          I think National saw the risk of people staying home and that’s why they put up the “your vote is crucial” stickers.

          • woodpecker 8.1.1.1.1

            ” Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single party governments” Your linked poll says 54.1% yes to 39.0% no.
            There’s that magic 54% again.
            Cup of tea anyone? Anybody at all?
            But I am interested if the stickers popped up in other parts of the country.

      • Fisiani 8.1.2

        You seem Thomas to forget that support over 50% is not impossible given how well the National government has turned the economy from recession into growth. Record employment figures and rising wages and steadily closing the gap with Australian wages. A surge of Kiwis returning home and virtually every province booming and growing the economy even more. probable growth now 3.5%. Another 400 days of further improvement and 50% is quite unreasonable. 60% is a more realistic target. National has clearly won the heart and mind of the centre just in time for the summer barbeque season. Labour and the Greens are merely fighting for their share of the dyed in the wool socialists. When socialists despair of Labour they shift to the Greens. When they think that Labour has a chance then they shift away from the Greens. The Labour/Green bloc is stagnant. It is idiotic to think that National polling over 50% will engender complacency, the Centre is far too focused on victory to be complacent. Far more likely it will mean that not even the offer of free KFC will get the socialist vote out.
        Now if Labour had a leader like Shane Jones then it would all change, He is however loathed by the Left. I fear that Robertson is playing the long game and wishes Cunliffe to take the blame for ignominy in November 2014 and be ushered in as the leader for 2017. He will again be lazy and probably have the distinction of being the only Labour candidate to deliver party vote third place for two elections in a row.

        • Naturesong 8.1.2.1

          This.

          Despite the fact that the current govt has literally run the country into the ground;
          – record debt and deficits which will take a generation to pay back
          – turned a military spying institution which shares its data with the US on its own citizens
          – whose vision for the future is the destruction of NZ’s environment and along with it the tourism industry and the value add our food exporters are able to charge.
          – NZ taxpayer subsidies to overseas corporations
          – has stood idly by while manufacturers and exporters (along with their local supply chains) have gone to the wall
          – constant demonization of nz citizens whose only crime was to lose their job when their employers either went out of business, cut jobs to prevent going out of business, or cynically cut jobs because with the labour market as it currently is you can offer workers the choice of leaving or working extra unpaid hours to fill the gap.
          – driven down wages and increased precarious work by legislating against the right to be treated fairly in the workplace.
          – Sold off critical public utilities for next to nothing
          – missmanaged the Chch rebuild – to my mind, likely to be the biggest missed opportunity of this govt.
          – Its not been in the news yet, but there has been significant damage to the health system
          The malfeasance and incompetance of the current govt simply staggers the mind.

          BUT, over the coming year you will see the talking points displayed in the comment above repeated in blogs, radio, television and newspaper again and again. New Zealand will be flooded with these lies.
          It wont make the talking points any less false, but it will be accepted by many many people.

          The one thing this government is truly outstanding at, is propaganda.

        • David H 8.1.2.2

          Fisiani
          You should write comedy… Well you gave me a laugh.

        • KJT 8.1.2.3

          Forgetting of course, Fizzer that most of the growth is because of an earthquake and a wholly fortuitous rise in dairy prices.

          Not to mention the discreet pre-election pump priming of the economy which usually results in an interest rate and borrowing hemorrhage safely away from election year.

          And that we weathered the recession so well because of Labours saving, instead of National’s huge election bribe, tax cuts, for Hawaii holidays, and Keating’s regulation of the Aussie banks. Both policies which National would have reversed had they been in power.

  9. Thomas 9

    All the polls had National above 49% in the weeks leading up to the 2011 election. Fairfax’s poll was the worst performer at 54%. But that was performed by Research International; Fairfax have changed to Ipsos, whose record is unclear.

    I think voters just didn’t want one party governing alone. So on election day National’s support softened The same thing happened in 2002, when Labour’s 50% support softened on election day. Voters like coalitions. If anything, having the polls predicting National governing alone hurts National.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    At the end of the day, polls are imperfect. The quoted margin of error is 3.1%. (And that’s just a 95% confidence interval. i.e. at least 5% chance that the error is more than that. )

    I wouldn’t read too much into any poll; a 2% shift is not statistically significant. It’s noise.

    I dislike the fact that both sides of the political spectrum attack polls as being biased. The fact is that even a perfectly unbiased poll has error. It’s mathematically unavoidable.

  10. Armchair Critic 10

    The wrongest of the polls gets it wrong again, and that’s news? Yeah right. It’s almost like there’s a hidden agenda…

  11. chris73 11

    Translation:

    Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good, any poll showing National going up = bad

    I’d suggest all people on the left ignore this poll and instead accept that Labour/Greens have won the next election and so shouldn’t bother doing anything until the election results come in :)

    • miravox 11.1

      “Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good”

      Good news then, the poll did show Labour going up. Sometime you need to read more than the headline. Along with National, in a margin of error kinda way

      At worst the poll is neutral – taken after Key was getting his photo ops, Hooten and co questioning Cunliffe’s CV and NAct tossing in some policy in an attempt to shore up it’s social concern credentials. None of these will last

      I don’t see a problem with that poll, except it’s probably a bit blue, as history shows.

  12. Tracey 12

    Chris73

    I object to all polls and the oxygen they waste which cld otherwise be used for policy and issue elucidation

  13. gobsmacked 13

    It’s worth repeating:

    Every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Yes, EVERY published poll, not one single exception. Feel free to check.

    But then the voters turned up on election day, undermining democracy with their actual votes. Silly voters.

  14. rockape 14

    Yes Gobsmacked good of you to remember that the voters turned up on election day and gave National their vote and Labour their lowest poll in years.

  15. rockape 15

    It may be an inconvenient truth but in all the arguments about National getting less on election day than the polls predicted you seem to forget the Labour vote. A year out from the election 2011 national averaged 51% and got 47% on election day. Labour were polling 35% and got 27.5% on election day. A drop of 7.5%

    • chris73 15.1

      Who’d have thought that voters on the left tend to be more lazy then voters on the right

    • gobsmacked 15.2

      So? You think that’s a clever argument, because “RedBorg say Labour good National bad”. Not everyone is so monolithic as you and your t/roll team. Labour”s result was crap, so what? National still could not govern alone, and were dealt a mess that affects them every day in Parliament, and in the public perception.

      But thanks for reinforcing my point about the polls.

  16. rockape 16

    Just take election results . How did Labour do over 9 years, not so good! National may drop a little but compared to Labour and the Clark years they are doing surprisingly well. Labour no longer talk or even dream about a Labour Government. The best they can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first, that wouldnt be a government it would be a circus!
    When talking of polls remember they are a snapshot in time,they change! Thats why National dropped post Tea party and Labour dropped post Cuncliffe backstabbing Goeff and the where is the money farce.Both those incidences dropped their respective parties vote in the last few weeks of the election campaigne to the advantage of the Greens and NZ first.

    • gobsmacked 16.1

      Rockape, if you want a grown-up discussion about polls and predictive quality (though I suspect you really don’t), then let’s have one:

      Do you believe National will govern alone after the next election? If so, why (given the evidence cited)? If not, then who with?

      You say:

      The best Labour can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first

      But if you believe in polls’ accuracy, as you claim, then clearly that’s false. Labour plus Greens have had the numbers in all recent polls bar the Fairfax one.

      • rockape 16.1.1

        You asked for beliefs not facts. I believe that the economy and thereby jobs will grow over the next year. I believe that the health service stats and Law and order stats will continue to improve. I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National. I believe it will be Nationals turn to offfer a few smarties to the voters. The end result will be National polling enough to win the next election with an overall majority.
        You see what you dont realize is that the Greens are an albatross around the neck of Labour. That will make sure voters stay away from that dangerous alliance.

        PS why do you always feel trying to degrade those who disagree with you makes your point stronger. It doesnt it just makes you look childish.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.1.1

          Your personal opinion, eh, which by an amazing coincidence makes you sound like nothing more than a tiresome parrot reciting John Key’s mendacious bullshit.

          You people are transparent.

          We need better wingnuts.

        • Chris 16.1.1.2

          hello rocky, still dragging those knuckles I see…

        • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3

          “I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National.”

          Yeah right. If you didn’t notice, Lianne won by rather a landslide. I think the only way things would go well for National in CHCH is if they either massively change their current hands-off approach (remember they have this 50% payout offer to red-zoners in the courts right now) or if Lianne massively screws up. However Lianne won’t screw up because she is very competent, whereas National don’t look like they’re about to change direction either.

          So that’s a bit of a pipe dream.

          • rockape 16.1.1.3.1

            You watch lianne, A poletician I have a lot of time for, she will soon be sucking up to National a bit like Mayor Len Brown!

            • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3.1.1

              Er, what’s your point?

              Local government have to suck up to National government when it comes to things that they can’t afford to fund themselves, with CHCH being the obvious posterchild for needing government funds.

      • rockape 16.1.2

        Of course you are right re recent polls. Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.2.1

          Roy Morgan. Choke on it.

        • gobsmacked 16.1.2.2

          the cry is where is Cunliffe

          And this is why you get mocked.

          Repeating headlines from Sla-ter’s blog doesn’t earn you respect. It suggests you can’t think for yourself.

          There is no such cry from the people. They have lives.

          • rockape 16.1.2.2.1

            Look up the dictionary there is a difference between mocking and just insults. Its the latter that shows how shallow you are.

  17. rockape 17

    Once again when Labour supporters have no answer we see them back to the old abuse policy. Well if thats your best shot at debate you should maybe try a more adult attitude. Me ,I gave that sort of debate up when I was about 5 years old!

    • lprent 17.1

      Ah yes, you don’t handle criticism well. That is obvious. Certainly you don’t engage your brain enough to read and understand it. All of these these characteristics are obvious above.

      You must have stopped listening when you were about 5 years old and failed to let your mother finish your social education.

      I guess that is why you are still playing with your willy in public. Something that is also evident here.

      Just another whining wanker of the wight screaming about abuse because they can’t handle robust debate after stating assertions of their opinion as being “fact”. Oh well, fuckwits like you are useful for drowning out the few intelligent right wingers

      • rockape 17.1.1

        See your level is the same standard as some of your commentators why play the man not the ball. Try and keep your credibility up with some response to what i have commented on. Do you disagree that Labours polling on the average of polls in the yeaqr leading to the election was 7.5% higher than they got on election day if so reference please.
        Do you disagree that ever election since Labour got to power under Clark their vote dropped dramatically? If so were is your reference?
        Best stick to the facts of the matter your opinion of me has no more interest to me than that of the chickens in my henhouse. I am not here to win a popularity contest, just to put some facts, even if you dont like them on the table.

      • rockape 17.1.2

        Yes I am sure you have been so right (if I can use that word on this blogg) about the last election,and the one before that. It was all about nasty polls and only one poll that counts. How did that work out Mr27.5%

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 17.2

      No answer?

      Didn’t you like the way I rubbed your nose in the Roy Morgan poll? Was my pointing out your tiresome repetition of the lying Prime Minister’s attack lines a bit much?

      If you are offended I apologise :twisted:

      • rockape 17.2.1

        Roy Morgan was reflecting the interest in the Labour party post the sacking of their leader(again). The honeymoon is over lets wait and see!

        • gobsmacked 17.2.1.1

          You didn’t have long to wait.

          Should have waited before mouthing off, eh?

          • rockape 17.2.1.1.1

            I hpope your comment makes sense to you ,it doesnt to me can you explain?
            Oh I see what your at having read later comments. However if you read my remarks you will know I dont rate polls. I was suggesting we wait till election day!
            I did last time and it worked out OK.

    • Lanthanide 18.1

      That poll was published 11 days ago. You have a strange definition of “same day”.

    • karol 18.2

      That’s not the same day. Check the date at the top of the article. It’s over a week old.

    • rockape 18.3

      Mathew I think I agree with you. Polls are fickle! It just takes one stupid comment or incident in the weeks before an election and it all changes. At best they are what SOME voters think at one particular time. Both parties have a problem,and its similar for both. How to get your share of apathetic voters out to the polls. In the UK in Thatchers hayday Conservative voters thought she was a shoe in so didnt vote,Labour voters thought she was a shoe in so they didnt turn up either. The looser,democracy! Its the same in NZ, if it appears too close to call there will be a higher turnout unless both parties have lost the trust of voters. We would both be guessing if we try to predict how many of the 800 000 non voters are fro which party. I suspect a lot are Maori a few ACT and a few NZ first and the rest divided between Nat and Lab. Manna and the Greens are activist driven parties so most of their supporters will turn up.

    • Matthew 18.4

      It worries me that at least three different Matthews have commented today (myself, Hooton, and this one). I guess I need to get a new handle, especially if the other Matthews are a right-wing commentator and someone mistaking an 11 day old poll for today’s.

    • David H 18.5

      The date of publication is usually in the top left area of the screen.

  18. Francis 19

    The Fairfax poll was also the one that showed virtually no change for National following the GCSB bill, the issue which all other polls showed caused National support to drop (it still hasn’t recovered). I wouldn’t put a lot of weight on it.

    On a similar note, we’d be far better off if polls were prohibited for the 2-3 weeks leading up to the election…

  19. Vagabundo 20

    And right on cue, we’ve just had TVNZ’s Colmar-Brunton poll which puts Labour/Green level with National.

      • Vagabundo 20.1.1

        Well, neither of our assessments are inaccurate based on what’s in the C-B poll. Either way, I think we can agree that the Fairfax-Ipsos poll may be a rogue poll, or another example of its history of being somewhat inaccurate. Roy Morgan should have one coming during this week, or at the start of the next. That should give us a better idea of where the Fairfax poll stands in the grander scheme of things.

  20. mickysavage 21

    Latest Colmar Brunton just in.

    Labour steady at 36.

    National slipped two points to 45.

    The Greens climb one point to 13.

    New Zealand First remains steady on 4.

    Act and the Maori Party are stable on 1, while the Conservatives have backed up talk of being a potential coalition partner with a one point gain to 2.

    The Fairfax Ipsos poll looks like an outlier …

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/left-strong-but-labour-flat-in-latest-poll-5662060

  21. gobsmacked 22

    Poor Rockape and co. National set a new record, the shortest recovery in history. It lasted 12 hours!

    https://twitter.com/ColmarBruntonNZ/status/394693676418351104

    Labour/Greens ahead of National. As every other poll has been saying.

    • rockape 22.1

      If you read what I say I dont rate polls do I have to repeat they are only a snapshot.

      • gobsmacked 22.1.1

        But at 3.58 pm today Rockape had a different view …

        Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        Let’s cut the crap. You got over-excited about a single poll that is out of synch with all others. Now you wish you hadn’t.

        Nobody knows what will happen in an election a year from now – obviously. But we do know the trend of public opinion. It’s a rough guide, it’s flawed, it’s not exact- but it IS consistent.

        Consistently bad for National.

        • rockape 22.1.1.1

          No I expect you got carried away with the new messiah for labour, well you tried Mr sensible. the Mr Action man, Now we have a new one Mr Actor Man. The rich harvard graduate(not) pretending to be a working class bloke, Mr 12%And if you want to quote long term trends to me Try election results 2011,2008.2005,2002,1999. See any trend there for Labour . I do and its down every year !

    • rockape 22.2

      Mate to use a cunliffism. Its lasted 5 years!

  22. amirite 23

    Polls schmolls, the Colmar Brunt0n has the Nats at 45%, Labour at 34%, Greens 13%, NZ First 4%,
    Conservative (!) 2%, Maori 1%, act 1%.
    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll

  23. rockape 24

    Great news for Labour, their leader gets 12% after all that publicity of the Leadership election/. they get 34% in the polls and only a third of their supporters want Cunliffe. Whats the odds on Winston going with National,He hates the greens. Labour still out. Do you realy think Winston will play 3rd fiddle in an alliance when he could get second fiddle from National. So many questions. Thats why I hate polls!

    • Tat Loo 24.1

      DNFTT

      • rockape 24.1.1

        DNFTT can you translate, I am more that 18 years old!

        [lprent: Could have fooled me. You act like a simple child. I also see that you haven't followed my previous advice so I won't repeat it.

        bye bye idiot.. Nothing you have ever said on this site under any handle has been worth wasting bandwidth on - it is simple trolling. And I'm feeling intolerant today so your IP is now auto-spam.. The only person who looks at it is me ]

        • greywarbler 24.1.1.1

          Counted up rockape – 29 since 3.10 pm to 7.11 p.m. The pseudo seemed to be cropping up a bit so thought I’d do a count. Glad to see DNFTT. Last time he showed up was in August.

  24. Swan 25

    Well these results put to bed any idea of a Cunliffe bounce.

    • Olwyn 25.1

      This is not NZ’s Got Talent, and the idea of a “Cunliffe bounce” means very little. The fact is, Labour under Cunliffe is in the process of re-engaging its supporters, and the things that Labour stands for are starting to get some oxygen. As that sinks in, Labour will gain momentum, which matters far more than bounce.

  25. Matthew 26

    I noticed that tvnz’s reporting is calling a Labour/Green alliance ‘Centre-left’. Good to see that John Key’s rhetoric of communism/far-left parties hasn’t rubbed off.

  26. Disraeli Gladstone 27

    Important point to note about the Colmar Poll is:

    Labour + Green = 47%
    National + Conservative = 47%

    Key has essentially been writing love notes to Craig in the media recently. With a new electorate in Auckland, it seems likely that the Conservatives are going to get a seat. They probably will now have to be factored in.

    Which means that at the moment, we have a statistical dead heat. And we’re all going to have to go and ask Winston who is going to form the next government.

    What is interesting will be when that fact sinks into the political narrative. I’m a social liberal, economic centrist. While a National government isn’t ideal, I can find it palpable. It could be worst.

    The Conservatives as the main junior coalition partner, for instance. That would be sickening. And would probably ensure I’d never vote National in 2014. I wonder if soft National voters feel the same way.

    • Lanthanide 27.1

      Vote Labour, get Greens.

      Vote National, get Conservative.

      • Tat Loo 27.1.1

        Christian Conservative, more like.

      • millsy 27.1.2

        “Vote National, get Conservative.”

        And if you’re gay, strung up with piano wire.

        • chris73 27.1.2.1

          Seriously dude you got some issues

        • felix 27.1.2.2

          Not quite.

          But it’s fair to say that if you’re not white, rich, and living as a straight christian nuclear family you’re going to be more or less entirely excluded from social policy considerations.

          • chris73 27.1.2.2.1

            Bollix

            If Colin Craig gets in he may drag in 3-4 others in with him but thats still a big if but even if does get elected theres still the Maori party, UnitedDunne, whoevers leading Act at the time of the election and possibly WinstonFirst to go through so Colin Craigs influence will be watered down

            Colin is similar to the Greens in that he can only go with National (as the Greens will only go with Labour) and as such doesn’t have to be bribed (unlike Dunne or Winston)

            • felix 27.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope, Craig is like ACT in that he allows the Nats to do a whole lot of horrible right-wing stuff that they want to do anyway but can’t campaign on.

              • chris73

                Economically maybe (Act I mean) but I don’t see National going in for social conservatism especially when you look at John Key with his jewish background, Chris Finlayson and his homosexuality, Judith Collins and her multicultural marriage and while I have no evidence I get the feeling Joyce probably doesn’t care what people get up to in their private lives

                • felix

                  As I said, they can’t campaign on that shit. Beautifully illustrated thank you.

                  • chris73

                    I mean they don’t want to to campaign on that and they won’t be giving Colin Craig a hint to do so either…

                    • felix

                      Give Craig a hint to campaign as a socially conservative bigoted fuckwit? I don’t think you’ve been paying attention.

                      Hardly surprising though, you seem to have failed to pay attention to 70 years of National Party history too.

                      ps did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?

                    • greywarbler

                      felix
                      You are a very patient person and caring to others in need. In this case you are taking chris73 by the hand and leading him or her shambling along the path to enlightenment. A task for Sisyphus I think.

    • David H 27.2

      If Key is writing love notes to Craig then no wonder the Nats are keen to get everything sold this term. Craig is against asset sales, but I do wonder if he would become just the latest in a long line of political Hypocrites, by getting into bed with a man who has literally sold off NZ in a fire sale.

  27. ak 28

    Dear oh dear. The constant benny-bash hasn’t worked, can’t Orewa 2 because they might just need em, so it’s the two most pro-right polls on wait for it……Labour Day! With a mass online troll call-up.

    To no avail again, the poor, sad, sacks. Gazumped by Slippery Bill W. The wee wedgie party heading for a fatal poll lag going into the hols in an election year.

    Watch it Daveo – cornered rats with bottomless wallets and not a scruple between em.

  28. JLLJames 29

    You can’t discount either poll. They are only indicative. Regardless, if you take an average of the two, you can make an argument for the margin of error being eliminated.

    GLHF

  29. millsy 30

    Dont panic Labour.

    Anyway, not like you got much leadership material..

    Grant Robertson and Shane Jones…

    The ALP is going through them, to no avail (Cannot see Shorten as PM material).

    • Murray Olsen 30.1

      Cunliffe and Robertson are both better leadership material than anyone in NAct, and even Sealord Jones is as good as Key.

      • chris73 30.1.1

        Ok now thats pretty funny

      • felix 30.1.2

        Yeah I’d say Jones is about as convincing as Key, i.e. “not at all” to anyone with any nous, and “quite a bit” to morans.

      • greywarbler 30.1.3

        mo
        That’s being hopeful even generous to Jones.. The Jones boy or John boy? Both out of contention, for the vast majority of the public putting the country into wise, safe hands. And WO would get extra oxygen in a breath.

  30. finbar 31

    See todays poll says Labour have not budged since Cunliffe took over,but the Greens have lifted one.Now only a mug would ridicule this as a bad sign.If Labour where ahead by five points the Nats would be seriously considering a early election for fear of Labour and Cunliffs leadership gaining traction.Early days and looking promising.

  31. chris73 32

    “did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?”

    - Nationals a broad church and so has many different views and I seem to recall Su’a William Sio being against the bill as well

    • felix 32.1

      That’s right chris, and I would never use him as an example of a progressive.

      You on the other hand looked for examples of National being progressive (hilarious) and you picked Findlayson to demonstrate that ‘National is so progressive THEY EVEN LET A GAY IN!’

      Unfortunately you’re a moron and you picked a gay man who is so socially conservative that he votes against equal treatment for gay people.

      National is, and always has been, a party of social conservatives and bigots. Check the voting record on any socially progressive bill over the last 77 years, it bears this statement out as utterly uncontroversial and you as either totally naive or a liar.

      You may not think of yourself as conservative, but nonetheless you do support a very conservative party with a very conservative record. And the only reason they don’t openly campaign as such because their views are no longer acceptable to the majority.

      • chris73 32.1.1

        Socially liberal and economically conservative would best describe me

        • felix 32.1.1.1

          Then you’re supporting the wrong party. National MPs almost always vote socially conservative.

        • Tat Loo (CV) 32.1.1.2

          You do realise that is nothing economically “conservative” about hawking off state assets to the highest bidder, turning the lights off at the post office and having corporations come in and run prisons, right?

          I mean, if you keep doing that kind of thing, what exactly is going to be left “conserved” for the next generation to take ownership of?

    • Tangled_up 32.2

      Stop being intellectually dishonest.

      Half the MPs representing National voted against marriage equality and for the continued discrimination of people based on sexuality.

      How the hell can you claim that the National Party stands for equality and non-discrimination (progressive) when it’s loaded with Mps who don’t?

  32. Tracey 33

    Brett

    you show no leadership qualities on this site but I completely accept that you struggle to read.

  33. Crunchtime 34

    The good money is on Labour still… although it’s looking closer than it has in recent weeks.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319

    You’d expect a small amount of right-wing bias even in this – people with money to punt on ipredict tend to be more right-wing by definition.

  34. Sable 35

    I have little faith in polls one way or the other. I would say the average New Zealander would have to be a complete moron not to see the pretty obvious crimes National has committed since slithering into office. Spying on its own citizens, savage censorship, effectively neutering freedom of speech not to mention the sale of state assets and the dismal treatment of the poor and mentally ill to name a few.

    Still the next election will be telling and I suspect it will shape my opinion of what it means to be a New Zealander for better or worse.

  35. Papa Tuanuku 36

    Conservative Party getting interviewed on main TV programmes is anti democratic. They are not an elected party into the parliament, but they get a shitload of free tv time on the basis that they might get in in 2014? Or that they are friends of John Key? I’d really like people on the left to call this for what it is, the powerful and the media deciding who gets in next year, based on their own preferences and prejudices.

  36. lurgee 37

    So it looks like I was right all along, and at this stage in the election cycle it doesn’t matter if the opposition leader is a particularly smelly lump of Gorgonzola, because NOBODY WHO ISN’T TRAGIC LIKE US cares?

    (Regurgitates humble pie)

  37. gobsmacked 38

    Latest Morgan poll … left gains solidified:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5269-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2013-201310300521

    The spin on these polls gets tiresome, so let’s cut to the chase: in 2014 National CANNOT win without Winston, but Labour and the Greens COULD. That’s been clear for a long time, and the evidence consistently supports it, bar one Fairfax joke that not even John Key believes.

    And no, “could” doesn’t mean “will”. Long way to go, every reason for optinism, not complacency.

  38. lurgee 39

    Another poll confirming things are looking up?

    (Re-eats his recently regurgitated humble pie)

    At least it’s still warm!

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    Mana | 18-08
  • PREFU likely to confirm dropping exports
    National’s economic management will be put under the spotlight in tomorrow’s PREFU given clear signs the so-called rock star economy has fallen off the stage, with plummeting prices for raw commodity exports, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Under National,...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Record profits while Kiwis face a cold winter
    The record profits by two of New Zealand’s largest electricity companies will be a bitter pill for New Zealand households who are paying record amounts for their power, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “No doubt the Key government will...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time for John Key to answer yes or no questions
    John Key’s train-wreck interview on Morning Report shows he is no longer capable of a simple yes or no answer and has lost touch with what’s right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key has become so media...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Key must clarify who signed out SIS OIA
    Yet again John Key is proving incapable of answering a simple question on an extremely important issue – this time who signed off Cameron Slater’s fast-tracked SIS OIA request on Phil Goff, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “John Key’s claim...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time to invest in our tertiary education system
    A Labour Government will fully review the student support system – including allowances, loans, accommodation support and scholarships – with a view to increasing access and making the system fair, transparent and sustainable, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Maryan Street says....
    Labour | 17-08
  • Labour will facilitate regional Māori economic development agencies
    The next Labour Government will facilitate the creation of regional Māori economic development groups lead by iwi and hapū to work in partnership with business and public agencies as part of its Māori Development policy. “Labour is committed to working towards...
    Labour | 16-08
  • PRIME MINISTER’S DENIAL AT ODDS WITH NATIONAL PARTY STATEMENT
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has today released an email from the General Manager of the National Party that directly contradicts recent statements from the Prime Minister in relation to the 2011 breaches of Labour Party website databases. In his stand-up...
    Labour | 16-08
  • Labour committed to a healthier NZ for all
    A Labour Government will shift the focus of the health system from narrow targets and short term thinking to make public health and prevention a priority, Labour’s health spokesperson Annette King says. Releasing Labour’s full Health policy today she said...
    Labour | 15-08
  • Time Key took responsibility for Collins
    It is well past time for John Key to take some responsibility for the misuse of power and information by his Minister Judith Collins, and follow through on his last warning to her, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “The evidence released...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Dear John, time to answer a few questions… – Harawira
    “When Cameron Slater says about Kim Dotcom ‘I have lots on him…death by a thousand cuts…wait till you see what comes out in coming weeks on that fat c***t’, you have to ask whether this is the same Cameron Slater...
    Mana | 14-08
  • MANA CANDIDATE FOR IKAROA RAWHITI OPENS UP ABOUT SUICIDE
    “This week suicide has claimed yet more lives in whanau and communities in Ikaroa Rawhiti, and my heart goes out to those who are dealing with such a tragic loss”, says MANA candidate for Te Ikaroa Rawhiti, Te Hamua Nikora....
    Mana | 14-08
  • Offshore betting in Labour’s sights
    A Labour Government will clamp down on offshore gambling websites that deprive the local racing industry of funds, Labour’s Racing spokesperson Ross Robertson says. Releasing Labour’s racing policy today, he said betting on offshore websites is a major threat to...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Key has serious questions to answer on Dirty Politics
    John Key must answer the serious questions raised in Nicky Hager’s new book which reveal examples of dirty politics that New Zealanders will be deeply concerned about, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “Many people will be disturbed by the evidence...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Creating an inclusive society for disabled people
    A Labour Government will provide free annual health checks for people with an intellectual disability, Labour’s Disability Issues spokesperson Ruth Dyson said today in announcing Labour’s Disability Issues policy. “We will also employ another 100 additional special education teachers and...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Media Advisory – MANA name change
    This is to advise all media that on the 24th of July the ‘Mana’ party name was officially changed to ‘MANA Movement’ under the Electoral Act 1993.  The inclusion of the word ‘Movement’ in our name shouldn’t come as a surprise...
    Mana | 13-08
  • New Zealand must help in the growing Iraq crisis
    The humanitarian crisis in Iraq looks certain to get worse before it gets better,” said David Shearer Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson. “New Zealand should urgently pledge increased humanitarian assistance to United Nations agencies and NGOs present on the ground....
    Labour | 13-08
  • Allegations of migrant worker rort should be investigated
    Labour is calling for an investigation into the alleged exploitation of workers at Hutt Railway workshops, hired to repair asbestos-riddled DL locomotives. Hutt South Labour MP Trevor Mallard has written to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment asking that...
    Labour | 13-08
  • Medical and dentistry students get reprieve under Labour
    A Labour Government will restore the right of medical and dentistry students to get student loans after seven years of study because it is the right thing to do, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Maryan Street says. “Hard on the heels...
    Labour | 13-08
  • National must stop meddling with ACC before the election
    The redesign currently occurring at the Accident Claims Corporation (ACC) for sensitive claims needs to be put on hold immediately, said the Green Party today.The Green Party is concerned about work currently underway at ACC involving the sensitive claims service...
    Greens | 13-08
  • Markets slow but first home buyers still hurting
    First home buyers are hurting more than ever as the supply of affordable houses in the market dries up, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Reserve Bank will be happy LVR minimum deposits and rising interest rates have dampened...
    Labour | 13-08
  • Green Party celebrates MOU win on contaminated sites
    The Green Party is celebrating the announcement of a national register of contaminated sites today, and $2.5 million to start cleaning two sites up. The Green Party and the National Party agreed to include toxic site management work in their...
    Greens | 13-08
  • Emergency staff at breaking point
    The Southern DHB is so cash-strapped it is failing to fill nursing rosters, Labour’s Associate Health spokesperson David Clark says.  “Every day emergency department nurses arrive at work knowing they are likely to be carrying more than their recommended workload. ...
    Labour | 12-08
  • ACC minister fails in mission to change culture
    The latest damning report by the Auditor General shows that the ACC Minister has failed to fulfil her mission to fix the sick culture at ACC and real change will not come till a new Government is elected, the Green...
    Greens | 12-08
  • Labour’s regional development fund to support Palmerston North
    Labour will consider a proposal to develop an inland port at Palmerston North, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “The Palmerston North community has developed plans for an inland port which will bring jobs and economic growth to a region which...
    Labour | 12-08
  • Green Party announces priorities for Christchurch
    The Green Party has today announced its plan for a fairer, smarter and more democratic Canterbury rebuild, with a focus on smart transport solutions, restoring local democracy, and keeping Christchurch's assets.The plan sits across all of the Green Party's priorities...
    Greens | 11-08
  • Rock-star economy unplugged by China log jam
    The collapse of log prices due to oversupply in China threatens to wash the gloss off what remains of National's so-called rock-star economy, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “Already this year the price of milk solids has plunged by more...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Young job seekers dealt a poor hand
    National's "keep 'em poor" card for young people on a benefit is a sorry substitute for job training, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Sue Moroney says.  The Government today announced it would extend its payment card scheme to all teen parents...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Labour – achieving change for Kiwi women
    Working towards being a world leader in eliminating violence against women and children will be a priority for a Labour Government. Releasing Labour’s Women’s Affairs policy today spokesperson Carol Beaumont said while Labour had a proud track record of achieving...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Accessible healthcare also affordable
      It is obvious from Tony Ryall’s hasty attack of Labour’s plans to extend free GP visits to older people that he hasn’t bothered to actually read the policy, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. "Mr Ryall’s response to Labour’s...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Full details of oil execs’ junket revealed
    Full details of a $237,000 taxpayer-funded oil executives' junket in 2011 have emerged.National paid the nearly quarter of a million dollars to wine and dine 11 oil executives in New Zealand during the World Cup.The trip included yachting, wine tasting,...
    Greens | 10-08
  • Nats sold 500 rugby fields of land a day offshore
    Under National over one million hectares of land has been approved for overseas sale – 16 times the size of Lake Taupō or the equivalent of five hundred rugby fields a day, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “According to...
    Labour | 10-08
  • Joyce’s dodgy sums fool no-one
    Steven Joyce's attempt to attack Labour's positive plan for affordable healthcare will fool no-one. "We knew that National would try to say that we can't afford free GP visits and prescriptions for the New Zealanders who need it. But, as...
    Labour | 10-08
  • Campaign Launch – Ready to Win
    Today I launched Labour's election campaign at the Viaduct Events Centre, Auckland. Here is the speech I gave....
    Labour | 10-08
  • Labour extends free GP visits, free prescriptions
    Nearly 40 per cent of Kiwis – or 1.7 million people – will be eligible for free doctors’ visits and free prescriptions under a Labour Government, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Last year more than half a million New Zealanders...
    Labour | 10-08
  • Labour promises a fairer ACC for all Kiwis
    Accident compensation for loss of potential earnings will rise under a Labour Government, while people not earning at the time of their accident will also be eligible for compensation, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. Releasing Labour’s ACC policy today...
    Labour | 08-08
  • NZ Govt must push for fair play in Fiji elections
    The New Zealand Government needs to do more to push for human rights and media freedom in Fiji as it stages its first election since the 2006 coup, the Green Party said today.Amnesty International has released a report which documents...
    Greens | 07-08
  • Pacific unemployment still highest in the country
    The Minister of Pacific Island Affairs can boast all he wants about changes to employment statistics for Pacific people but the reality for many Pacific people is nowhere close to National’s promised brighter future, Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William...
    Labour | 07-08
  • Big funding injection for regions in Green Party transport plan
    The Green Party will increase transport spending in the regions by 50 percent over the next decade under its new transport plan, the Green Party said today."Transport is the life-blood of the regions. They have been starved under National," Green...
    Greens | 07-08
  • From smiling assassin to grumpy butcher – on giving Judith Collins a last...
    After #dirtypolitics Key isn’t the smiling assassin, he is the grumpy butcher. When he said Judith had  a ‘last chance’ he meant 1 second after voting closes on 20th September. Key would love nothing more than to cut Collins loose and end...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • If the National Party rowing advert was real….
    If the National Party rowing advert was real there would be more blood in the water. If the National Party rowing advert was real it would be Cameron Slater calling the strokes. If the national Party rowing advert was real,...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • Cameron Slater: Zionist and political pundit
    It is hard to know where to start with right-wing blogger Cameron Slater (Whale Oil), especially after the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics. This confirmed everything many of us thought Slater to be: a snivelling pundit who serves...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Bryce Edwards stood down from Herald for election season??? Are the editors...
    I only found this out via twitter last night and I am still in shock. Bryce Edwards, easily the best critical thinker and news analyst the NZ Herald has has been stood down by the NZ Herald ‘for the election...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • So who’s a “conspiracy theorist” now?!
    . . As the media storm over Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Politics“,  and allegations over smear campaigns continue to swirl,  National’s spin doctors have given Key, Collins, and other National Party ministers a string of  phrases to use in all...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Momentum shift
    When you are deeply immersed in a local campaign sometimes it can be difficult to see the helicopter view.   I don’t know how accurate the political polls are and have always known that things can change quickly in politics...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Dear Toby Manhire. Bad call on backing Farrar
    Oh dear. I say this as someone who regards Toby Manhire as one of the smartest journalists/commentators/columnists this country has, and I think Toby has made a terribly dumb call here. Let’s see if Toby is still singing Farrar’s praises...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Radio NZ apologise to me for getting it wrong
    Radio NZ have contacted me, reviewed the claim by their host that I had an advance copy of Nicky Hager’s book and they have concluded they got it wrong, they have called me and apologised and will make a statement...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Reclaim UoA – Students’ Message to Steven Joyce
    Tertiary Education – we’ve been sold a lemon  A group of 30 students attended an event on Tuesday evening about ‘the future of tertiary education’ at which the Minister of Tertiary Education Steven Joyce was slated to speak. As Joyce...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Can someone in the media please ask the PM of NZ to categorically deny any ...
    Now we see the MO of Slater & Co, the setting up, the digging for dirt, the use of staff to dig that dirt, can the Prime Minister of NZ categorically deny any National Party staff worked with Cam Slater...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Panic setting in for National as they realise what’s about to happen
    And the terror starts to set in. I’ve never seen blind panic like this before  and it’s spreading as the enormity of what’s about to happen starts to sink in. Hager’s book is a mere entree, Nicky’s personal ethics wouldn’t...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics: what the book ultimately reveals is abuse of powe...
    Guide to the many faces of John Key Nicky’s book is now doing what I suspected it would do, create a shockwave of revulsion. Andrew Geddis over at Pundit Blog sums up this attitude best, and it’s reverberations build with every...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Fancy taking children seriously
    Let’s see why all political parties should pay close attention to the Green Party’s policy for children. First, it is a comprehensive attempt to put children, not ideology, at the heart of family policy. Wow, children at the heart of...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Amnesty International: Dear Azerbaijan, Stop Torture, Love Kiwi Kids
    This is a world where many adults often underestimate Generation Y. Being only a few years out of being a teenager myself, I feel I can make this statement with certainty. However, I have been the Youth Intern at Amnesty...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • GCSB meetings today in Christchurch 1pm at Uni 7pm at Cathedral
    The 2014 GCSB meetings to discuss the mass surveillance state legislation passed by this Government will be debated in Christchurch today at two different meetings. 1pm at Canterbury University bottom floor James Height Building: Chair: Bomber Bradbury Ruth Dyson – Labour Party...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Things that 7 Sharp should probably be talking about
    Things that 7 Sharp should probably be talking about...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Guide to when Key is lying
    Guide to when Key is lying...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – The State of the Student Nation …or is just Al...
    Students politics are dead and our student media is in terminal decline. The most disappointing thing about university is the politics, or should I say lack of? I was raised with the idea that students held the power.They were the...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Love Lifts Us Up: Thoughts from the Green Party’s campaign launch.
    Author Eleanor Catton wants people to give their party vote to the Greens.Photo by Peter Meecham NO ONE WAS QUITE SURE how he did it. Somehow Bob Harvey had persuaded the owners of the rights to Joe Cocker’s Up Where...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Test Stream
    width="600" height="400"> archive="http://theora.org/cortado.jar [3]" width="600" height="401">...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • LIVE STREAM: You, Me and the GCSB ChCh Public Meetings
    LIVE STREAM EVENT here at 1pm & 7pm: The 2014 GCSB meetings to discuss the mass surveillance state legislation passed by this Government will be debated in Christchurch today at two different meetings. PLEASE NOTE: TDB recommends Chrome and Firefox...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today,
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • How @whaledump might destroy the popular vote for National
    Dirty Politics is now creating a meltdown and National are in danger of a total vote collapse. The real threat to for National was if Nicky had all the emails released via the anonymous hacker who took them. That danger is now a...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Open letter to Radio NZ – you need to make a retraction now
    I have just sent this off to Radio NZ right now Dear Radio NZ Firstly, what a great interview by Guyon Espiner this morning with the Prime Minister. Great to see such hard hitting journalism. Unfortunately I am not contacting...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Radio NZ are lying about me
    I am getting this all second hand at the moment as I don’t bother listening to Radio NZ (except for that wonderful Wallace Chapman in the weekends) but there is a claim that Suzie Ferguson just insinuated on Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Farrar’s fake claim of being invaded + Slater’s claims of death threats...
    The counter spin to avoid focus on the series allegations made in Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics continues. David Farrar’s ridiculous hysterics that he was invaded and his privacy has been blah blah blah has all been reduced from computer hacking to...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • A shout out to the unsung heroes – our Public Service staff
    Government departments, particularly in the social welfare, education and health areas get a lot of shtick. And it’s not unjustified. We have problems in the way that our government departments treat those in need. And I do not intend to...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Key’s ducking for cover – utterly unbelievable!!!
    .   . I don’t often re-print media stories verbatim – but this piece by Andrea Vance, for Fairfax Media,  deserves wider circulation. Please note the highlighted statements by Dear Leader as he ducks, weaves, obfuscates, and deflects any and...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – Who is the source of Hager’s emails?
    Who is the source of Hager’s emails? Kim Dotcom has categorically denied he has anything to do with this and Nicky Hager has categorically denied that Kim was the source of the emails. Whatever you think about Kim (and he...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Dirty Politics – Audio+Text Why It Is Essential Raw Data Be Released Imme...
    MIL OSI – Source: RadioLive – Sunday Panel Analysis Headline: Dirty Politics – Audio Analysis by Selwyn Manning + Rodney Hide + Mark Sainsbury MIL Video: Selwyn Manning, Rodney Hide, and Mark Sainsbury discuss and debate the explosive details revealed...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • TV One and TV3 Political Polls – not such a landslide now
    Before the impact of Dirty Politics has been felt, the National Party high point in the Polls had been reached and their inevitable  drop begins. Despite the mainstream media telling NZers for almost 3 years that John Key would win...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – You will not believe Key’s defence of hackin...
    He actually used a sporting analogy. Can you believe it? John Key, asked on the fact that his staff had entered into a Labour Party computer and downloaded their database, Key replied, “It’s a bit like the Wallabies positing up their...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • A brief word on 100 Top political Tweeters
    The NZ Herald has put together a very useful list of top 100 political twtter accounts, what is most interesting from the lists is that the right wing all work hand in glove with each other where as the Left...
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • Are Whaleoil’s traffic stats a bloated illusion?
    Dim Post has done a critical analysis of just how real Cameron Slater’s traffic stats are. TDB has only been around for a year with a fragment of the digital footprint of the older blogs, yet we have managed to become...
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – Is Jordan Williams deceptive enough to blackma...
    There are so many issues raised by Nicky Hager’s book, that any one of them would be worthy of total focus on. Let’s chat about the claim in the book that Jordan Williams bragged to Slater and Lusk that he had...
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – Why ‘see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evi...
    This sign shows how National’s see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil denial isn’t working. National’s response to the book is that there is NOTHING in there that deserves anything more than the most briefest of eye motions. Key won’t...
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • “Dirty Politics” and The Teflon Man
    . L-R- David Farrar, John Key, Cameron Slater . The release of Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Secrets” has unleashed more of a political firestorm than many had anticipated. (Or, perhaps some did.) The glare of publicity has been shone like...
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Lyndelle Gibara – An Open Letter to Cameron Slater
    Dear Cameron,I am in Christchurch. I am not a ‘useless prick’. I have not asked to be ‘bailed out’ nor have my ‘scum friends’ in the eastern suburbs. I lost my cafe in September, the quakes wrecked my shop that...
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – Death threats or hit jobs?
    Shocked selfies while reading Dirty Politics are flooding Twitter - verily the vermin value their villainous vanity*    The beauty of Hager’s book is that there are so many horrific awful and insidious highlights, it’s difficult to know what to focus...
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – Labour release emails proving Key has lied
    Labour have released emails proving Key has lied about National Party involvement into the hacking of the Labour Party computer… The Labour Party has released documents it says proves its website was hacked by people working for the National Party....
    The Daily Blog | 16-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – the TV political panels are ridiculous
    The total lack of depth and shallow talent pool of TV political panel shows in NZ is providing hideous coverage and insight into one of the most important political stories of the year. Yesterday Firstline had Jacinda Ardern and Jamie...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – response to Canon NZ
    Poor old Canon NZ. They have been so damaged by appointing Cam’s mate as a judge and her awarding him their Best Blogger Award. I feel for them, I really do. They are amazing supporters of Journalism in NZ when...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – the legality of using stolen emails
    I wonder if Key is humming, “I’ve got one less problem withoutcha” as he deletes Cams number from his phone?   One of the attack spin lines being run by National Party apologists in the media is that Nicky Hager has...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – Release the emails and prove Key wrong
    It is vital in this crisis control of the meltdown that Key comes across as relaxed and not agitated, if he does he gives the game away on how damaged they are. He has to keep denying and claiming he...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics – Farrar oxygen stealing stunt backfires
    Oh poor David Farrar everyone. The wee babe is on the verge of a hysterical breakdown because he concludes after reading the hideous catalogue of hate and filth that his friends have vomited up in Dirty Politics that he must...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Key’s arrogance as a leader
    There is a lot that could be said about John Key at the moment but one thing that really irritates me about him is his complete lack of remorse or regret for the lies he’s told or the things he...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Nicky Hager’s ...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson –Winston’s Liver? How about Minto’s Splee...
    I really do want to use my Daily Blog guest-blogger status to do more to amuse, enthuse, entertain and inflame the political classes of this country than just writing endless responses to InternetMANA affiliated personalities who seem to think it’s...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Hekia speaks with forked tongue
    There was a prescient moment at Wednesday night’s Tick For Kids education forum in Wellington. Hekia Parata had just wound up, and Tracey Martin MP took her place at the lectern. Without a pause she said that the education sector had...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • Show me what democracy looks like: 6 activists for Palestine #Occupy the NZ...
    At around 12pm yesterday Nadia Filistin, who has been a major organiser in the Auckland protests against Israel’s ongoing assaults in Gaza over the last 6 weeks which has killed over 1900 Palestinians and injured thousands, updated her Facebook status...
    The Daily Blog | 15-08
  • New shark finning laws fall short for threatened species
    Environmental groups are welcoming some aspects of a raft of law changes announced today in relation to shark finning, but say that overall the chance for New Zealand to catch up with international efforts in shark conservation is being missed....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Promoting Labour’s Positive Policies
    General Secretary of the New Zealand Labour Party, Tim Barnett, today launched Labour’s television advertisements for the 2014 election. The advertisements help tell Labour’s positive story for a better New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Drug Court: Rare Insight into New Alternative Justice Model
    Māori Television’s latest New Zealand documentary presents a fascinating look inside a new alternative justice model – through the stories of convicted criminals....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Political parties pledge to increase overseas aid
    A survey of political parties looking at how much New Zealand should spend on Official Development Assistance (ODA) shows the overwhelming majority of parties are committed to raising the bar according to the Council for International Development (CID)....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Top Kiwis backing Tip the Scales campaign
    Sir Graham Henry, former All Black Kees Meeuws, singer-song writer Jamie McDell and fishing guru Matt Watson have pledged their support to Tip the Scales, a pre-election campaign generating public support for rebuilding New Zealand’s depleted inshore...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Maritime Union continues to press over dirty politics
    Maritime Union National President Garry Parsloe says Ports of Auckland management is trying to get off the hook from its involvement with extreme right wing bloggers during the Ports of Auckland dispute....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • No end in sight to overwhelming human cost of conflict
    Two ceasefires have brought some respite to civilians in Gaza and southern Israel, amid hope that a durable cessation of hostilities might occur. In Gaza, these breaks in the fighting have barely given people enough time to seek medical care,...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Young Kiwi speakers to represent NZ at Gallipoli 2015
    The RSA is delighted at the announcement made by Veterans' Affairs Minister Michael Woodhouse today, that all eight regional finalists of the 2015 ANZ RSA Cyril Bassett VC Speech Competition will be included in a group of 25 Youth Ambassadors...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • “Bromance” Marriage Stunt Insulting Says LegaliseLove
    A promotional competition asking two best mates to get married in order to win an all-expenses-paid trip to the 2015 Rugby World Cup is insulting, marriage equality campaign LegaliseLove Aotearoa claims....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Cannabis Party first to register for 2014 General Election
    The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party became the first party to register for the 2014 General Election today, when it meet with the Electoral Commission in Wellington at Midday....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • PGA: Addresses NZ’s ratification of Arms Trade Treaty
    President of Parliamentarians for Global Action and New Zealand MP Ross Robertson today addressed a celebration to mark New Zealand’s imminent ratification of the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which is expected within the next few weeks....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Roy Morgan Poll August 20
    National (48%) holds its lead over Labour/ Greens (39%) as ‘Dirty Politics’ revelations provide a new challenge for PM John Key’s leadership. NZ First surge to 6.5% - highest support since September 2013....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • IGIS inquiry into release of NZSIS information
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS), Cheryl Gwyn, announced today that she would be instituting an inquiry concerning allegations that the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS) might have released official information...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Glen Scanlon to Head Digital Media at Radio New Zealand
    Radio New Zealand has announced the appointment of Glen Scanlon to the recently created position of head of digital media....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Israel’s Gaza ceasefire violations go unreported
    It seems that it is only ceasefire violations that emanate from the Palestinian side that ever get publicised....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Drug courier sentenced for importing heroin
    South African drug courier, Laura Elizabeth Cilliers, was sentenced today in the Christchurch District Court to 7 years and 10 months in prison for importing approximately 1.2 kilograms of heroin....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Residential Property Speculators Days Numbered
    Rent heat cools as homes are replaced ... Liz McDonald ... The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/your-property/10400851/Rent-heat-cools-as-homes-are-replaced Comment on thread (in moderation) … Christchurch is a “severely unaffordable” City as the Annual Demographia Survey ( www.demographia.com ) illustrates … thanks...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Academic’s study shows need for a Ministry of Public Input
    A book by Associate Professor Jennifer Lees-Marshment recommends the creation of a Ministry of Public Input to collect, process and communicate the publics’ ideas to government. The University of Auckland’s political marketing expert says the...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Government inaction killing innocent motorists
    Innocent people are dying due to long delays in installing centre lane barriers on high risk roads, says an outspoken road safety campaigner....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Property revaluations for council rates must be reformed
    Opportunity to bring controls on rating value changes and more equitable level of annual rates increase...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Ron Mark Sets the Example
    The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming the pledge by Mayor of Carterton and NZ First candidate Ron Mark who has announced he would relinquish his roles as Mayor and member of two District Health Boards if successfully elected to Parliament. Taxpayers’...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Ban 1080 Candidates announced for 2014 General Election
    MEDIA RELEASE: Angry rural communities want issue of 1080 aerial drops taken to the polls, says party co-leader Ban 1080 Candidates announced for 2014 General Election...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Governor General Gives Direction to Conduct Election
    The Governor General, Lt Gen The Rt Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae, has given the green light for this year’s General Election....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • New Zealand Animal Groups Unite to Help
    WELLINGTON (19 Aug 2014) – The Be Cruelty-Free campaign to ban animal testing of cosmetics in New Zealand just got bigger and stronger, as two leading animal protection groups come on board. Joining forces with Humane Society International which has...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Students Interrupt Steven Joyce at University Event
    A group of 30 students this evening interrupted an event about ‘the future of tertiary education’ at which Tertiary Education Minister Steven Joyce was slated to speak. As Joyce began to speak, students interrupted with a speech of their own....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Caritas among first responders offering relief in Iraq
    As the plight of Iraqis fleeing persecution reaches tragic levels, Caritas Aotearoa New Zealand has pledged an initial $10,000 to support the work of Caritas in Iraq to provide humanitarian aid to thousands of families affected by the war and...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • iPredict 2014 Election Update #31: Nats take hit
    Election race narrows significantly · National party vote now below Labour/Greens · National’s probability of leading next government dips to 72% · Joyce expected to take over as National leader before end of 2015, as Collins’ prospects fall...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Call for applications – Fulbright scholar awards
    Fulbright New Zealand calls for applications to a range of scholar awards for New Zealand academics, artists and professionals to undertake academic and cultural exchanges to the United States of America. A Fulbright exchange provides life-changing opportunities...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • CWS launches appeal for Iraqis on World Humanitarian Day
    Christian World Service is appealing for help for tens of thousands of Iraqis caught up in one of the world’s horrifying conflicts....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Promoting the Voice of the Rangatahi
    Young Māori voters are seen by the Māori Party to have a vital part to play in saving the Māori seats in Parliament says the Māori Party’s youngest candidate, Reverend Te Hira Paenga. “What we’re hearing on the ground is...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Nelson Election Candidates’ Community Forum
    Nelson’s community and volunteer sector has some serious questions to put to the local candidates in the run up to next month’s general election....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Research NZ Budget Observer – Still On Track For Surplus
    New Zealand's Treasury today released their pre-election budget update, ahead of the 20 September vote. The government still expects to get back to surplus in 2014/15, albeit a slightly smaller surplus than expected in May. The growth forecasts were...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Nicky Hager’s first public comment on police investigation
    A complaint has been laid with police by Cameron Slater over the hacking of his computer and 'theft' of emails to supply to Nicky Hager for his explosive book Dirty Politics . We give Nicky Hager the first chance to...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Disabled Person’s Organisations report sent to UN
    A report written by Disabled Person’s Organisations (DPOs) representing the voice of disabled New Zealanders has been released and sent to the United Nations today....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Fuel and electricity price gouging hits regions hardest
    Mere Takoko - New Zealand First East Coast Candidate For Immediate Release - Tuesday, 19 August, 2014...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Government “opening of the books” shows wasted opportunity
    “The economic and fiscal forecasts in the pre-election update – the ‘opening of the government’s books’ – shows how the Government has failed to grasp the opportunity of the Global Financial Crisis to rebalance the economy,” says CTU...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Kiwis take up the challenge to end extreme poverty
    High profile New Zealanders have been invited to participate in Live Below the Line (LBTL). Part of a global initiative, LBTL challenges Kiwis to raise awareness of extreme poverty and to live on a daily food budget of $2.25 for...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • NZ Independent Coalition announces strong list
    NZ Independent Coalition Secretary Helen Anderson announced the party’s candidates for the 2014 election today - 10 candidates total, with four also standing in electorates....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • National Chooses to Campaign on High Tax, High Spend Policy
    The Taxpayers’ Union is slamming Bill English’s indication that the National Party will not offer voters any indication of tax cuts before next month's general election. Speaking to journalists and analysts in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • SSC survey shows way forward for better public services
    The Public Service Association (PSA) has welcomed the release of the State Services Commission’s (SSC) Integrity and Conduct Survey 2013 , which it says indicates what needs to be done to strengthen the public services that New Zealanders use and...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Talent pipeline is the key to correcting gender balance
    Building a talent pipeline that fosters talented young women from early on in their careers is the key to gender balance at the most senior levels, according to EEO Trust Chief Executive Bev Cassidy-Mackenzie....
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • A-Team of Election Data Analysis For Election 2014
    NZ's leading independent online news source Scoop.co.nz has teamed up with data heavyweights Roy Morgan Research and Spark Venture's brand-new big-data start up Qrious to deliver a under the covers perspective on the 2014 NZ General Election that has never...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2014
    Full PREFU: prefu14whole.pdf Full Executive Summary with charts: prefu14pt2of11.pdf Online: Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2014 — The Treasury - New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Survey of Integrity and Conduct in the State Services
    The State Services Commission (SSC) today published the report of the 2013 Integrity and Conduct Survey of the State Services. “The New Zealand State services is rated highly internationally for its standards of integrity and conduct and is considered...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Demand for Same-Sex ‘Marriage’ Underwhelms
    Family First NZ says that one year on from the marriage law being politically manipulated, the demand for same-sex marriages has been underwhelming with just 318 same-sex couples rushing to take advantage of the new definition to formalise their relationship...
    Scoop politics | 19-08
  • Jacinda Ardern talks about life as an MP
    A class of Albany politics students gained some insight into life as a Member of Parliament this week, with a visit to campus from Labour List MP Jacinda Ardern....
    Scoop politics | 18-08
  • Regional issues top agenda for election debate
    Wellington regional issues, from the flyover to extending the airport, will be in the spotlight at an election debate at Massey University’s Wellington campus tomorrow....
    Scoop politics | 18-08
  • Walking and the Election
    The Green Party has topped the polls while National has failed to register according to NZ's pedestrian advocacy organisation Living Streets Aotearoa (LSA)....
    Scoop politics | 18-08
  • Evidence of the dubious tactics of the alcohol industry
    Nicky Hager’s latest book “Dirty Politics” reports the alcohol industry works behind the scenes to actively try and smear the professional reputation of people who promote effective alcohol reforms in New Zealand, as well as other public health...
    Scoop politics | 18-08
  • ACT’s plan to double cycle use without spending taxes
    "The National party yesterday announced a $100 million cycle-way that just happens to go through the marginal seat of Hutt South" said ACT Leader Dr Jamie Whyte....
    Scoop politics | 18-08
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