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The only response needed

Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.

At 6.5% off, that was the least accurate of the bunch.

The drop from that poll to now in the Fairfax is 4.5%. If you translate that to the actual starting point, National’s down to around 43%, which is what the other, competent, polls show.

I doubt the latest Fairfax brainfart will be a “major blow” anyone’s morale.

Updated: The Colmar-Brunton poll on the same day contradicts the shifts and the percentages in the Fairfax poll. It also covers the same 19th-23rd of October time period.

162 comments on “The only response needed”

  1. Michael Vally:

    Dear oh dear oh dear.

    Thats four dears.

    Your like a repug who watches faux news, you only take notice on the polls that have your guys doing well, (which havent been a lot for labour over the years)

    Keep ya head in the sand, big boy.

    BTW, what are the trends saying?

  2. Policy Parrot 2

    I would be interested in Fairfax publishing their methodology for their polling; specifically:

    – Time of the day called,
    – Whether mobiles are called or not,
    – Call-backs if busy or NCA are performed, or such pollee’s are discarded

    The problem really lies with the associated spin, which drives the next news cycle. If such a premise is based on false assumptions, it can become a bit of a self-fulfilling tendency (i.e. if voters think there is no contest, why bother considering an alternative, unless obviously motivated?)

    • Te Reo Putake 2.1

      Sample size? One

      Time of day? Just after the editorial meeting at Granny finishes.

      Mobiles? Not needed, the Herald operator puts us straight through to the editor.

      Call backs? Also not needed; once the editor gives the instructions, we know what numbers to write.

      Edit, first person to spot the obvious mistake wins a chocolate fish. I put it down to typing through tears.

    • Steve 2.2

      Also how often do they Poll? My quick look back over the last year shows Fairfax trend was to poll every 3 months Nov 28th -3 Dec 2012, Feb 10-14 2013,May 19-23 2013,Aug 12-25 2013, Suddenly we have a 2 month poll (Oct 19-23) taken before the latest Asset Sale flop and a week before Labour’s annual conference in Christchurch which makes front page headlines on Labour Day. Interesting

    • Anon 2.3

      As someone who once worked on these polls for Ipsos/Fairfax, I can give a little bit of information on this. In May, the last polling period I have the records for, the times called were:
      Sunday – 19th May (AM) 9:30am-3:00pm
      Sunday – 19th May (PM) 3:00pm- 9:00pm
      Monday – 20th May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Tuesday – 21st May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Wednesday – 22nd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Thursday – 23rd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      No mobile phones were called in the time I worked there. Callbacks if someone was busy were regularly undertaken. The work environment was professional and there was no obvious conservative bias (though all of their polls seem to show one, I suspect because of the very nature of landline polling.)

      • Thanks very much for that. I always figured Fairfax’s rightward spin was a result of demographic biases in their methods, rather than outright bias or shoddy work overall, but it’s nice to have it confirmed. The landline bias would certainly contribute.

      • the pigman 2.3.2

        Oh come on Farrar, I know the private polling business is drying up, but Fairfax?! Really…?

    • David H 2.4

      This is all I could find. Random Phone indeed. I would presume that they also only do Landlines.

      http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/fairfax-ipsos-poll-october-2013/

  3. phil 3

    The comments on the Fairfax website were telling. Pro Nat comments were given 5 thumbs up, while the very next (anti) Nat comments received 5 or 6 thumbs down. Clearly indicates the bias of that network. ho hum…

    • Francis 3.1

      Since it hasn’t been posted anywhere on this page, this is where the results (and comments) are located: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour

      See a lot of comments implying that somehow, National’s policies are moderate while Labour’s are somehow extreme. My bias view would say that it’s the other way around (National are far-right, particularly economically while Labour is somewhere around center-left/left), but I guess they’re probably at around the same level. That would mean the 2014 election will be a clear vote between left- and right-wing policies, rather than the usual ones where there’s not much difference between the two main parties.

      If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

      • Tat Loo (CV) 3.1.1

        If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

        It probably more represents the demographic who most visit Stuff and NZ Herald online i.e. persons earning >$60K pa.

        What I see in the big lift in the last 2 Roy Morgans is that a lot of New Zealanders are not fooled by the MSM droning on, but were waiting for a clearly defined Opposition alternative to show up.

        • Sir Cullen's Sidekick 3.1.1.1

          Yeah only Roy Morgan poll is reliable as it shows Labour winning.. Good one.

        • miravox 3.1.1.2

          I think they are manipulated by the propaganda of the government regurgitated by the media. It doesn’t help that people born in 70s and onwards haven’t seen a proper left-wing government. I think Clark was proudly centrist.

          When we moved to Austria, we were stunned by how ‘left-wing’ this place is – as have been all our NZ visitors. We have to remind ourselves that this country is under a government that is a grand coalition of the equivalent of NZ’s Labour and National, so is by definition ‘centrist’. (Vienna itself is the equivalent of a Labour-Green coalition).

          National really is far-right, economically, by comparison.

      • Wayne 3.1.2

        You need to get out more if you think NZ is in the grip of a far right government (though at least you admit it is in part your bias).

        • KJT 3.1.2.1

          You are correct Wayne, A bunch of thieving wannabee Fascists, is a better description.

          • Wayne 3.1.2.1.1

            Try telling that to potential voters and see how far you get. Unless of course you think the half of NZer’s are in fact thieving fascists, or deluded pawns.

            • greywarbler 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Maybe they are thieving pawns or deluded fascists. That is up for study and discussion. Good if we can refute it.

            • KJT 3.1.2.1.1.2

              No. The majority of New Zealanders are misled pawns.

              Misled by the highly effective propaganda, and re-writing of history, of the neo-liberal religion.

              Unfortunately not many now are old enough to remember how much better off we were under genuinely socialist Governments. Before our “unfortunate experiment”.

              People like Mike Moore, Don Brash, maybe Rodney Hide and yourself, perhaps, genuinely believe in that religion and have the best of intentions. Like many religious people. Not much difference from the, “happy clappy”, cult followers who try and attract people off the streets.

              The Neo-liberal fascists, like all cult leaders, are happy to use the misled and the “true believers” to advance their socially destructive, but personally lucrative, agenda.

  4. Tat Loo (CV) 4

    As noted in Open Mike, Fairfax are using a different polling company than pre 2011 elections.

  5. Tracey 5

    Do they publish the questions?

    Brett given how easily you dismiss all keys lies your opinion has limitations.

  6. Disraeli Gladstone 6

    At this rate, if all parties and partisans can ignore the polls and write them off without a comment, that would be great. Because I’m getting tired of the staggering level of ignorance on statistics from 8 out of 10 people.

  7. Tracey 7

    Brett. Read the honest man thread and tell me which lies you accept amongst those listed.

    • Tracey:

      I was born to lead, not to read.

      • fender 7.1.1

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

      • fender 7.1.2

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

        • greywarbler 7.1.2.1

          fender
          Brave New World, Brett and humour, what a joke. Keep up the quips, we should put down the whips now he reveals his value – a sense of humour no less. He led, and you finished in great form fender.
          I was born to lead, not to read.- Brett Dale

          (I looked up Google for interest and it has this for another Brett Dale I think, in the USA. ‘Mr. Dale is a partner with the Firm, who represents highly compensated individuals and closely held businesses in various industries.’ Don’t you love ‘the Firm’, and the euphemism ‘highly compensated’ for well paid or getting smashing salaries. And compensated for what – putting in their precious time working rather than doing other more enjoyable things. I understand there are a lot of people in the USA looking for ‘compensation’)

          • fender 7.1.2.1.1

            Now I’ve messed up the thread with the same comment going into spam folder, I’m not one for quitting and just kept going :oops:

            [lprent: chopped out two. ]

            • greywarbler 7.1.2.1.1.1

              fender
              I see what you mean. The one at 10.29 with the link was the subtlest. But the Lord loves a trier they say. That sort of dedication is what we will need in the next year.
              That’s presuming we don’t have a copy cat ‘Bananarama’-style Pacific election.

  8. woodpecker 8

    I remember Tracy Watkins running a 2/3 front page in the Waikato Tiimes around mid November 2011 banging on about the 54% for nats. Interestingly about the same time as the nat hordings all around Hamilton got a new yellow sticker saying something like “Your vote is critical”.

    • Thomas 8.1

      Voters don’t like the idea of one party governing alone. That’s why we adopted MMP. If a poll puts one party over 50%, it scares voters off. Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable and they would rather the outcome be narrower.

      If you want to sabotage National through biased polls, bias them *towards* National and scare off voters.

      • woodpecker 8.1.1

        “Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable”. The way I read that is, National polling suggested a somewhat smaller percentage than what Tracy was writing, hence the stickers. At the same time telling left voters not to bother.
        As far as your MMP “and they would rather the outcome be narrower” part. Let me just say, personally, even if I thought it was 100% certain for a left win, I will still be taking my teenagers and anyone else I can find to the polling station.

        • Thomas 8.1.1.1

          I would also vote regardless of how certain the outcome is. However, you and I are not representative of the general population. A quarter of kiwis didn’t vote in 2011.

          In both 2011 and 2002 we saw one party polling above 50% shortly before the election. But on election day we saw record-setting low turnouts and those parties needing support partners.

          Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single-party governments. Polls have shown that. That’s why we have only had coalition governments since 1996 and why Germany (which also uses MMP) has only had coalitions since 1949. Heck, that’s why we introduced MMP in the first place.

          I think National saw the risk of people staying home and that’s why they put up the “your vote is crucial” stickers.

          • woodpecker 8.1.1.1.1

            ” Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single party governments” Your linked poll says 54.1% yes to 39.0% no.
            There’s that magic 54% again.
            Cup of tea anyone? Anybody at all?
            But I am interested if the stickers popped up in other parts of the country.

      • Fisiani 8.1.2

        You seem Thomas to forget that support over 50% is not impossible given how well the National government has turned the economy from recession into growth. Record employment figures and rising wages and steadily closing the gap with Australian wages. A surge of Kiwis returning home and virtually every province booming and growing the economy even more. probable growth now 3.5%. Another 400 days of further improvement and 50% is quite unreasonable. 60% is a more realistic target. National has clearly won the heart and mind of the centre just in time for the summer barbeque season. Labour and the Greens are merely fighting for their share of the dyed in the wool socialists. When socialists despair of Labour they shift to the Greens. When they think that Labour has a chance then they shift away from the Greens. The Labour/Green bloc is stagnant. It is idiotic to think that National polling over 50% will engender complacency, the Centre is far too focused on victory to be complacent. Far more likely it will mean that not even the offer of free KFC will get the socialist vote out.
        Now if Labour had a leader like Shane Jones then it would all change, He is however loathed by the Left. I fear that Robertson is playing the long game and wishes Cunliffe to take the blame for ignominy in November 2014 and be ushered in as the leader for 2017. He will again be lazy and probably have the distinction of being the only Labour candidate to deliver party vote third place for two elections in a row.

        • Naturesong 8.1.2.1

          This.

          Despite the fact that the current govt has literally run the country into the ground;
          – record debt and deficits which will take a generation to pay back
          – turned a military spying institution which shares its data with the US on its own citizens
          – whose vision for the future is the destruction of NZ’s environment and along with it the tourism industry and the value add our food exporters are able to charge.
          – NZ taxpayer subsidies to overseas corporations
          – has stood idly by while manufacturers and exporters (along with their local supply chains) have gone to the wall
          – constant demonization of nz citizens whose only crime was to lose their job when their employers either went out of business, cut jobs to prevent going out of business, or cynically cut jobs because with the labour market as it currently is you can offer workers the choice of leaving or working extra unpaid hours to fill the gap.
          – driven down wages and increased precarious work by legislating against the right to be treated fairly in the workplace.
          – Sold off critical public utilities for next to nothing
          – missmanaged the Chch rebuild – to my mind, likely to be the biggest missed opportunity of this govt.
          – Its not been in the news yet, but there has been significant damage to the health system
          The malfeasance and incompetance of the current govt simply staggers the mind.

          BUT, over the coming year you will see the talking points displayed in the comment above repeated in blogs, radio, television and newspaper again and again. New Zealand will be flooded with these lies.
          It wont make the talking points any less false, but it will be accepted by many many people.

          The one thing this government is truly outstanding at, is propaganda.

        • David H 8.1.2.2

          Fisiani
          You should write comedy… Well you gave me a laugh.

        • KJT 8.1.2.3

          Forgetting of course, Fizzer that most of the growth is because of an earthquake and a wholly fortuitous rise in dairy prices.

          Not to mention the discreet pre-election pump priming of the economy which usually results in an interest rate and borrowing hemorrhage safely away from election year.

          And that we weathered the recession so well because of Labours saving, instead of National’s huge election bribe, tax cuts, for Hawaii holidays, and Keating’s regulation of the Aussie banks. Both policies which National would have reversed had they been in power.

  9. Thomas 9

    All the polls had National above 49% in the weeks leading up to the 2011 election. Fairfax’s poll was the worst performer at 54%. But that was performed by Research International; Fairfax have changed to Ipsos, whose record is unclear.

    I think voters just didn’t want one party governing alone. So on election day National’s support softened The same thing happened in 2002, when Labour’s 50% support softened on election day. Voters like coalitions. If anything, having the polls predicting National governing alone hurts National.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    At the end of the day, polls are imperfect. The quoted margin of error is 3.1%. (And that’s just a 95% confidence interval. i.e. at least 5% chance that the error is more than that. )

    I wouldn’t read too much into any poll; a 2% shift is not statistically significant. It’s noise.

    I dislike the fact that both sides of the political spectrum attack polls as being biased. The fact is that even a perfectly unbiased poll has error. It’s mathematically unavoidable.

  10. Armchair Critic 10

    The wrongest of the polls gets it wrong again, and that’s news? Yeah right. It’s almost like there’s a hidden agenda…

  11. chris73 11

    Translation:

    Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good, any poll showing National going up = bad

    I’d suggest all people on the left ignore this poll and instead accept that Labour/Greens have won the next election and so shouldn’t bother doing anything until the election results come in :)

    • miravox 11.1

      “Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good”

      Good news then, the poll did show Labour going up. Sometime you need to read more than the headline. Along with National, in a margin of error kinda way

      At worst the poll is neutral – taken after Key was getting his photo ops, Hooten and co questioning Cunliffe’s CV and NAct tossing in some policy in an attempt to shore up it’s social concern credentials. None of these will last

      I don’t see a problem with that poll, except it’s probably a bit blue, as history shows.

  12. Tracey 12

    Chris73

    I object to all polls and the oxygen they waste which cld otherwise be used for policy and issue elucidation

  13. gobsmacked 13

    It’s worth repeating:

    Every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Yes, EVERY published poll, not one single exception. Feel free to check.

    But then the voters turned up on election day, undermining democracy with their actual votes. Silly voters.

  14. rockape 14

    Yes Gobsmacked good of you to remember that the voters turned up on election day and gave National their vote and Labour their lowest poll in years.

  15. rockape 15

    It may be an inconvenient truth but in all the arguments about National getting less on election day than the polls predicted you seem to forget the Labour vote. A year out from the election 2011 national averaged 51% and got 47% on election day. Labour were polling 35% and got 27.5% on election day. A drop of 7.5%

    • chris73 15.1

      Who’d have thought that voters on the left tend to be more lazy then voters on the right

    • gobsmacked 15.2

      So? You think that’s a clever argument, because “RedBorg say Labour good National bad”. Not everyone is so monolithic as you and your t/roll team. Labour”s result was crap, so what? National still could not govern alone, and were dealt a mess that affects them every day in Parliament, and in the public perception.

      But thanks for reinforcing my point about the polls.

  16. rockape 16

    Just take election results . How did Labour do over 9 years, not so good! National may drop a little but compared to Labour and the Clark years they are doing surprisingly well. Labour no longer talk or even dream about a Labour Government. The best they can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first, that wouldnt be a government it would be a circus!
    When talking of polls remember they are a snapshot in time,they change! Thats why National dropped post Tea party and Labour dropped post Cuncliffe backstabbing Goeff and the where is the money farce.Both those incidences dropped their respective parties vote in the last few weeks of the election campaigne to the advantage of the Greens and NZ first.

    • gobsmacked 16.1

      Rockape, if you want a grown-up discussion about polls and predictive quality (though I suspect you really don’t), then let’s have one:

      Do you believe National will govern alone after the next election? If so, why (given the evidence cited)? If not, then who with?

      You say:

      The best Labour can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first

      But if you believe in polls’ accuracy, as you claim, then clearly that’s false. Labour plus Greens have had the numbers in all recent polls bar the Fairfax one.

      • rockape 16.1.1

        You asked for beliefs not facts. I believe that the economy and thereby jobs will grow over the next year. I believe that the health service stats and Law and order stats will continue to improve. I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National. I believe it will be Nationals turn to offfer a few smarties to the voters. The end result will be National polling enough to win the next election with an overall majority.
        You see what you dont realize is that the Greens are an albatross around the neck of Labour. That will make sure voters stay away from that dangerous alliance.

        PS why do you always feel trying to degrade those who disagree with you makes your point stronger. It doesnt it just makes you look childish.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.1.1

          Your personal opinion, eh, which by an amazing coincidence makes you sound like nothing more than a tiresome parrot reciting John Key’s mendacious bullshit.

          You people are transparent.

          We need better wingnuts.

        • Chris 16.1.1.2

          hello rocky, still dragging those knuckles I see…

        • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3

          “I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National.”

          Yeah right. If you didn’t notice, Lianne won by rather a landslide. I think the only way things would go well for National in CHCH is if they either massively change their current hands-off approach (remember they have this 50% payout offer to red-zoners in the courts right now) or if Lianne massively screws up. However Lianne won’t screw up because she is very competent, whereas National don’t look like they’re about to change direction either.

          So that’s a bit of a pipe dream.

          • rockape 16.1.1.3.1

            You watch lianne, A poletician I have a lot of time for, she will soon be sucking up to National a bit like Mayor Len Brown!

            • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3.1.1

              Er, what’s your point?

              Local government have to suck up to National government when it comes to things that they can’t afford to fund themselves, with CHCH being the obvious posterchild for needing government funds.

      • rockape 16.1.2

        Of course you are right re recent polls. Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.2.1

          Roy Morgan. Choke on it.

        • gobsmacked 16.1.2.2

          the cry is where is Cunliffe

          And this is why you get mocked.

          Repeating headlines from Sla-ter’s blog doesn’t earn you respect. It suggests you can’t think for yourself.

          There is no such cry from the people. They have lives.

          • rockape 16.1.2.2.1

            Look up the dictionary there is a difference between mocking and just insults. Its the latter that shows how shallow you are.

  17. rockape 17

    Once again when Labour supporters have no answer we see them back to the old abuse policy. Well if thats your best shot at debate you should maybe try a more adult attitude. Me ,I gave that sort of debate up when I was about 5 years old!

    • lprent 17.1

      Ah yes, you don’t handle criticism well. That is obvious. Certainly you don’t engage your brain enough to read and understand it. All of these these characteristics are obvious above.

      You must have stopped listening when you were about 5 years old and failed to let your mother finish your social education.

      I guess that is why you are still playing with your willy in public. Something that is also evident here.

      Just another whining wanker of the wight screaming about abuse because they can’t handle robust debate after stating assertions of their opinion as being “fact”. Oh well, fuckwits like you are useful for drowning out the few intelligent right wingers

      • rockape 17.1.1

        See your level is the same standard as some of your commentators why play the man not the ball. Try and keep your credibility up with some response to what i have commented on. Do you disagree that Labours polling on the average of polls in the yeaqr leading to the election was 7.5% higher than they got on election day if so reference please.
        Do you disagree that ever election since Labour got to power under Clark their vote dropped dramatically? If so were is your reference?
        Best stick to the facts of the matter your opinion of me has no more interest to me than that of the chickens in my henhouse. I am not here to win a popularity contest, just to put some facts, even if you dont like them on the table.

      • rockape 17.1.2

        Yes I am sure you have been so right (if I can use that word on this blogg) about the last election,and the one before that. It was all about nasty polls and only one poll that counts. How did that work out Mr27.5%

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 17.2

      No answer?

      Didn’t you like the way I rubbed your nose in the Roy Morgan poll? Was my pointing out your tiresome repetition of the lying Prime Minister’s attack lines a bit much?

      If you are offended I apologise :twisted:

      • rockape 17.2.1

        Roy Morgan was reflecting the interest in the Labour party post the sacking of their leader(again). The honeymoon is over lets wait and see!

        • gobsmacked 17.2.1.1

          You didn’t have long to wait.

          Should have waited before mouthing off, eh?

          • rockape 17.2.1.1.1

            I hpope your comment makes sense to you ,it doesnt to me can you explain?
            Oh I see what your at having read later comments. However if you read my remarks you will know I dont rate polls. I was suggesting we wait till election day!
            I did last time and it worked out OK.

    • Lanthanide 18.1

      That poll was published 11 days ago. You have a strange definition of “same day”.

    • karol 18.2

      That’s not the same day. Check the date at the top of the article. It’s over a week old.

    • rockape 18.3

      Mathew I think I agree with you. Polls are fickle! It just takes one stupid comment or incident in the weeks before an election and it all changes. At best they are what SOME voters think at one particular time. Both parties have a problem,and its similar for both. How to get your share of apathetic voters out to the polls. In the UK in Thatchers hayday Conservative voters thought she was a shoe in so didnt vote,Labour voters thought she was a shoe in so they didnt turn up either. The looser,democracy! Its the same in NZ, if it appears too close to call there will be a higher turnout unless both parties have lost the trust of voters. We would both be guessing if we try to predict how many of the 800 000 non voters are fro which party. I suspect a lot are Maori a few ACT and a few NZ first and the rest divided between Nat and Lab. Manna and the Greens are activist driven parties so most of their supporters will turn up.

    • Matthew 18.4

      It worries me that at least three different Matthews have commented today (myself, Hooton, and this one). I guess I need to get a new handle, especially if the other Matthews are a right-wing commentator and someone mistaking an 11 day old poll for today’s.

    • David H 18.5

      The date of publication is usually in the top left area of the screen.

  18. Francis 19

    The Fairfax poll was also the one that showed virtually no change for National following the GCSB bill, the issue which all other polls showed caused National support to drop (it still hasn’t recovered). I wouldn’t put a lot of weight on it.

    On a similar note, we’d be far better off if polls were prohibited for the 2-3 weeks leading up to the election…

  19. Vagabundo 20

    And right on cue, we’ve just had TVNZ’s Colmar-Brunton poll which puts Labour/Green level with National.

      • Vagabundo 20.1.1

        Well, neither of our assessments are inaccurate based on what’s in the C-B poll. Either way, I think we can agree that the Fairfax-Ipsos poll may be a rogue poll, or another example of its history of being somewhat inaccurate. Roy Morgan should have one coming during this week, or at the start of the next. That should give us a better idea of where the Fairfax poll stands in the grander scheme of things.

  20. mickysavage 21

    Latest Colmar Brunton just in.

    Labour steady at 36.

    National slipped two points to 45.

    The Greens climb one point to 13.

    New Zealand First remains steady on 4.

    Act and the Maori Party are stable on 1, while the Conservatives have backed up talk of being a potential coalition partner with a one point gain to 2.

    The Fairfax Ipsos poll looks like an outlier …

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/left-strong-but-labour-flat-in-latest-poll-5662060

  21. gobsmacked 22

    Poor Rockape and co. National set a new record, the shortest recovery in history. It lasted 12 hours!

    https://twitter.com/ColmarBruntonNZ/status/394693676418351104

    Labour/Greens ahead of National. As every other poll has been saying.

    • rockape 22.1

      If you read what I say I dont rate polls do I have to repeat they are only a snapshot.

      • gobsmacked 22.1.1

        But at 3.58 pm today Rockape had a different view …

        Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        Let’s cut the crap. You got over-excited about a single poll that is out of synch with all others. Now you wish you hadn’t.

        Nobody knows what will happen in an election a year from now – obviously. But we do know the trend of public opinion. It’s a rough guide, it’s flawed, it’s not exact- but it IS consistent.

        Consistently bad for National.

        • rockape 22.1.1.1

          No I expect you got carried away with the new messiah for labour, well you tried Mr sensible. the Mr Action man, Now we have a new one Mr Actor Man. The rich harvard graduate(not) pretending to be a working class bloke, Mr 12%And if you want to quote long term trends to me Try election results 2011,2008.2005,2002,1999. See any trend there for Labour . I do and its down every year !

    • rockape 22.2

      Mate to use a cunliffism. Its lasted 5 years!

  22. amirite 23

    Polls schmolls, the Colmar Brunt0n has the Nats at 45%, Labour at 34%, Greens 13%, NZ First 4%,
    Conservative (!) 2%, Maori 1%, act 1%.
    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll

  23. rockape 24

    Great news for Labour, their leader gets 12% after all that publicity of the Leadership election/. they get 34% in the polls and only a third of their supporters want Cunliffe. Whats the odds on Winston going with National,He hates the greens. Labour still out. Do you realy think Winston will play 3rd fiddle in an alliance when he could get second fiddle from National. So many questions. Thats why I hate polls!

    • Tat Loo 24.1

      DNFTT

      • rockape 24.1.1

        DNFTT can you translate, I am more that 18 years old!

        [lprent: Could have fooled me. You act like a simple child. I also see that you haven't followed my previous advice so I won't repeat it.

        bye bye idiot.. Nothing you have ever said on this site under any handle has been worth wasting bandwidth on - it is simple trolling. And I'm feeling intolerant today so your IP is now auto-spam.. The only person who looks at it is me ]

        • greywarbler 24.1.1.1

          Counted up rockape – 29 since 3.10 pm to 7.11 p.m. The pseudo seemed to be cropping up a bit so thought I’d do a count. Glad to see DNFTT. Last time he showed up was in August.

  24. Swan 25

    Well these results put to bed any idea of a Cunliffe bounce.

    • Olwyn 25.1

      This is not NZ’s Got Talent, and the idea of a “Cunliffe bounce” means very little. The fact is, Labour under Cunliffe is in the process of re-engaging its supporters, and the things that Labour stands for are starting to get some oxygen. As that sinks in, Labour will gain momentum, which matters far more than bounce.

  25. Matthew 26

    I noticed that tvnz’s reporting is calling a Labour/Green alliance ‘Centre-left’. Good to see that John Key’s rhetoric of communism/far-left parties hasn’t rubbed off.

  26. Disraeli Gladstone 27

    Important point to note about the Colmar Poll is:

    Labour + Green = 47%
    National + Conservative = 47%

    Key has essentially been writing love notes to Craig in the media recently. With a new electorate in Auckland, it seems likely that the Conservatives are going to get a seat. They probably will now have to be factored in.

    Which means that at the moment, we have a statistical dead heat. And we’re all going to have to go and ask Winston who is going to form the next government.

    What is interesting will be when that fact sinks into the political narrative. I’m a social liberal, economic centrist. While a National government isn’t ideal, I can find it palpable. It could be worst.

    The Conservatives as the main junior coalition partner, for instance. That would be sickening. And would probably ensure I’d never vote National in 2014. I wonder if soft National voters feel the same way.

    • Lanthanide 27.1

      Vote Labour, get Greens.

      Vote National, get Conservative.

      • Tat Loo 27.1.1

        Christian Conservative, more like.

      • millsy 27.1.2

        “Vote National, get Conservative.”

        And if you’re gay, strung up with piano wire.

        • chris73 27.1.2.1

          Seriously dude you got some issues

        • felix 27.1.2.2

          Not quite.

          But it’s fair to say that if you’re not white, rich, and living as a straight christian nuclear family you’re going to be more or less entirely excluded from social policy considerations.

          • chris73 27.1.2.2.1

            Bollix

            If Colin Craig gets in he may drag in 3-4 others in with him but thats still a big if but even if does get elected theres still the Maori party, UnitedDunne, whoevers leading Act at the time of the election and possibly WinstonFirst to go through so Colin Craigs influence will be watered down

            Colin is similar to the Greens in that he can only go with National (as the Greens will only go with Labour) and as such doesn’t have to be bribed (unlike Dunne or Winston)

            • felix 27.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope, Craig is like ACT in that he allows the Nats to do a whole lot of horrible right-wing stuff that they want to do anyway but can’t campaign on.

              • chris73

                Economically maybe (Act I mean) but I don’t see National going in for social conservatism especially when you look at John Key with his jewish background, Chris Finlayson and his homosexuality, Judith Collins and her multicultural marriage and while I have no evidence I get the feeling Joyce probably doesn’t care what people get up to in their private lives

                • felix

                  As I said, they can’t campaign on that shit. Beautifully illustrated thank you.

                  • chris73

                    I mean they don’t want to to campaign on that and they won’t be giving Colin Craig a hint to do so either…

                    • felix

                      Give Craig a hint to campaign as a socially conservative bigoted fuckwit? I don’t think you’ve been paying attention.

                      Hardly surprising though, you seem to have failed to pay attention to 70 years of National Party history too.

                      ps did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?

                    • greywarbler

                      felix
                      You are a very patient person and caring to others in need. In this case you are taking chris73 by the hand and leading him or her shambling along the path to enlightenment. A task for Sisyphus I think.

    • David H 27.2

      If Key is writing love notes to Craig then no wonder the Nats are keen to get everything sold this term. Craig is against asset sales, but I do wonder if he would become just the latest in a long line of political Hypocrites, by getting into bed with a man who has literally sold off NZ in a fire sale.

  27. ak 28

    Dear oh dear. The constant benny-bash hasn’t worked, can’t Orewa 2 because they might just need em, so it’s the two most pro-right polls on wait for it……Labour Day! With a mass online troll call-up.

    To no avail again, the poor, sad, sacks. Gazumped by Slippery Bill W. The wee wedgie party heading for a fatal poll lag going into the hols in an election year.

    Watch it Daveo – cornered rats with bottomless wallets and not a scruple between em.

  28. JLLJames 29

    You can’t discount either poll. They are only indicative. Regardless, if you take an average of the two, you can make an argument for the margin of error being eliminated.

    GLHF

  29. millsy 30

    Dont panic Labour.

    Anyway, not like you got much leadership material..

    Grant Robertson and Shane Jones…

    The ALP is going through them, to no avail (Cannot see Shorten as PM material).

    • Murray Olsen 30.1

      Cunliffe and Robertson are both better leadership material than anyone in NAct, and even Sealord Jones is as good as Key.

      • chris73 30.1.1

        Ok now thats pretty funny

      • felix 30.1.2

        Yeah I’d say Jones is about as convincing as Key, i.e. “not at all” to anyone with any nous, and “quite a bit” to morans.

      • greywarbler 30.1.3

        mo
        That’s being hopeful even generous to Jones.. The Jones boy or John boy? Both out of contention, for the vast majority of the public putting the country into wise, safe hands. And WO would get extra oxygen in a breath.

  30. finbar 31

    See todays poll says Labour have not budged since Cunliffe took over,but the Greens have lifted one.Now only a mug would ridicule this as a bad sign.If Labour where ahead by five points the Nats would be seriously considering a early election for fear of Labour and Cunliffs leadership gaining traction.Early days and looking promising.

  31. chris73 32

    “did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?”

    – Nationals a broad church and so has many different views and I seem to recall Su’a William Sio being against the bill as well

    • felix 32.1

      That’s right chris, and I would never use him as an example of a progressive.

      You on the other hand looked for examples of National being progressive (hilarious) and you picked Findlayson to demonstrate that ‘National is so progressive THEY EVEN LET A GAY IN!’

      Unfortunately you’re a moron and you picked a gay man who is so socially conservative that he votes against equal treatment for gay people.

      National is, and always has been, a party of social conservatives and bigots. Check the voting record on any socially progressive bill over the last 77 years, it bears this statement out as utterly uncontroversial and you as either totally naive or a liar.

      You may not think of yourself as conservative, but nonetheless you do support a very conservative party with a very conservative record. And the only reason they don’t openly campaign as such because their views are no longer acceptable to the majority.

      • chris73 32.1.1

        Socially liberal and economically conservative would best describe me

        • felix 32.1.1.1

          Then you’re supporting the wrong party. National MPs almost always vote socially conservative.

        • Tat Loo (CV) 32.1.1.2

          You do realise that is nothing economically “conservative” about hawking off state assets to the highest bidder, turning the lights off at the post office and having corporations come in and run prisons, right?

          I mean, if you keep doing that kind of thing, what exactly is going to be left “conserved” for the next generation to take ownership of?

    • Tangled_up 32.2

      Stop being intellectually dishonest.

      Half the MPs representing National voted against marriage equality and for the continued discrimination of people based on sexuality.

      How the hell can you claim that the National Party stands for equality and non-discrimination (progressive) when it’s loaded with Mps who don’t?

  32. Tracey 33

    Brett

    you show no leadership qualities on this site but I completely accept that you struggle to read.

  33. Crunchtime 34

    The good money is on Labour still… although it’s looking closer than it has in recent weeks.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319

    You’d expect a small amount of right-wing bias even in this – people with money to punt on ipredict tend to be more right-wing by definition.

  34. Sable 35

    I have little faith in polls one way or the other. I would say the average New Zealander would have to be a complete moron not to see the pretty obvious crimes National has committed since slithering into office. Spying on its own citizens, savage censorship, effectively neutering freedom of speech not to mention the sale of state assets and the dismal treatment of the poor and mentally ill to name a few.

    Still the next election will be telling and I suspect it will shape my opinion of what it means to be a New Zealander for better or worse.

  35. Papa Tuanuku 36

    Conservative Party getting interviewed on main TV programmes is anti democratic. They are not an elected party into the parliament, but they get a shitload of free tv time on the basis that they might get in in 2014? Or that they are friends of John Key? I’d really like people on the left to call this for what it is, the powerful and the media deciding who gets in next year, based on their own preferences and prejudices.

  36. lurgee 37

    So it looks like I was right all along, and at this stage in the election cycle it doesn’t matter if the opposition leader is a particularly smelly lump of Gorgonzola, because NOBODY WHO ISN’T TRAGIC LIKE US cares?

    (Regurgitates humble pie)

  37. gobsmacked 38

    Latest Morgan poll … left gains solidified:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5269-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2013-201310300521

    The spin on these polls gets tiresome, so let’s cut to the chase: in 2014 National CANNOT win without Winston, but Labour and the Greens COULD. That’s been clear for a long time, and the evidence consistently supports it, bar one Fairfax joke that not even John Key believes.

    And no, “could” doesn’t mean “will”. Long way to go, every reason for optinism, not complacency.

  38. lurgee 39

    Another poll confirming things are looking up?

    (Re-eats his recently regurgitated humble pie)

    At least it’s still warm!

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    Labour | 15-09
  • MANA Movement Housing Policy
    “When families are living in cars, garages, cockroach-infested caravans and three families to a house then we have a housing crisis”, said MANA leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira. “When you have a housing crisis for low-income...
    Mana | 15-09
  • Bigger than the Foreshore and Seabed – Sykes
    “Over the past week I have received some disturbing information that has led myself and a number of Maori lawyers to conclude that this National - Maori Party - ACT and United Future Government are going to put an end to both...
    Mana | 14-09
  • MANA wants Te Reo Māori petition fulfilled
    Hone Harawira, MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Annette Sykes, MANA candidate for Waiariki Te Hāmua Nikora, MANA candidate for Ikaroa Rāwhiti  “More than four decades have passed and the petition calling for Te Reo Māori in schools...
    Mana | 14-09
  • Primary focus on the critical issues
    A Labour Government will prioritise New Zealand’s agricultural sectors by recreating a Rural Affairs Minister and appointing a Primary Industry Council and a Chief Agricultural Adviser. Releasing Labour’s Primary Sector and Rural Affairs policies today, spokesperson Damien O’Connor says the...
    Labour | 12-09
  • Maori Television fears confirmed – Harawira
    ...
    Mana | 12-09
  • More ghost houses from National
    The Government’s desperate pre-election announcement of more ghost houses won’t fool Aucklanders wanting action on the housing crisis, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “These are ghost houses, to go with National’s ghost tax cut. Families cannot live in ghost...
    Labour | 12-09
  • National bows to union pressure over travel time
    National has reluctantly bowed to pressure from unions and adopted Labour’s fair and sensible policy to pay home support workers for the time they spend traveling between clients, Labour’s Associate Health spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “This decision is long overdue...
    Labour | 12-09
  • Predators on Poverty – Harawira
    “As poverty has ballooned out of control, the Predators on Poverty have emerged to suck the lifeblood from whole families and communities” said MANA Movement leader and Tai Tokerau MP, Hone Harawira. “They are deliberately targeting low-income areas, particularly those...
    Mana | 11-09
  • MANA Movement Policy Launch
    Predators on Poverty (pokie machines, alcohol outlets and loan sharks) 1pm, Thursday 11th September Corner Great South Road and Criterion Street Otahuhu Shopping Centre...
    Mana | 10-09
  • Eliminating Poverty – Sir Edmund Hillary Collegiate, Otara | Internet MAN...
    A campaign to Eliminate Poverty, Feed the Kids, build more houses, and create thousands of new jobs, was outlined by Internet MANA at a public meeting in Otara this evening. When MANA and the Internet Party first sat down to...
    Mana | 09-09
  • Housing in Waiariki – Sykes
    Fact:  Under this National-Maori Party-ACT-United Future Government 61% of Maori in Waiariki do not own their own home and nearly 70% of Maori rentals in Waiariki pay $200 or more per week. “Maori in Waiariki have low rates of home ownership...
    Mana | 09-09
  • Charter school crisis shows time to axe costly experiment
    Dysfunction from day one at a Northland charter school shows it is time to dump this costly and failed experiment by the National-ACT Government, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Te Kura Hourua ki Whangaruru received $27,000 in government funding...
    Labour | 08-09
  • Labour will crack down on loan sharks
    A Labour Government will crack down on predatory loan sharks by making it illegal both to charge exorbitant interest rates and to exploit uninformed borrowers, Labour’s Consumer Affairs Spokesperson Carol Beaumont says. Labour today released its Consumer Affairs policy which...
    Labour | 08-09
  • Let’s do the FEED before the weed
    “Last week I put out a very strongly worded email to my colleagues about an online promotion about cannabis law reform” said MANA leader and Tai Tokerau MP, Hone Harawira “and I stand by that criticism today.” My concern was...
    Mana | 08-09
  • TE KAEA and NATIVE AFFAIRS live to fight another day
    “I understand that both the chair of the Board of Maori Television, Georgina Te Heuheu, and new CEO, Paora Maxwell, are now saying that my comments this morning about their plans to cut Te Kaea and Native Affairs, were wrong, and that...
    Mana | 08-09
  • How come the PM only pays 2.8% of his income in tax – Harawira
    “Before John Key talks about the piddling tax cuts he plans for low and middle income families today he needs to explain why he only pays 2.8% of his income on tax while a minimum wage worker pays 28% tax,”...
    Mana | 07-09
  • THE DEATH OF INDEPENDENCE FOR MAORI TV
    “If what I’m hearing is true, tomorrow Maori Television Service (MTS) will dump its news programme, Te Kaea, and staff will lose their jobs” said MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, Hone Harawira “and the Minister of Maori...
    Mana | 07-09
  • Labour recommits to Pike River families
    An incoming Labour-led government will do everything possible to recover the bodies of the Pike River Miners and return them to their families, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “This tragedy and its aftermath has left the families of the 29...
    Labour | 06-09
  • Voting has started and still no tax plan or fiscal budget for voters to see
    "Even though voting for the election has already begun, National still refuses to provide any details of its proposed tax cuts. And Bill English admitted this morning that he won’t provide any specifics until after the election", Labour’s Finance spokesperson...
    Labour | 06-09
  • National’s partners’ tax plans cost at least $42 billion
    If National forms the next government its partners’ tax plans will cost the country at least $42 billion, and maybe as much as $50 billion, wreaking havoc with the books, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “National claims to be...
    Labour | 05-09
  • Labour: Providing more opportunities for young Kiwis
    A Labour Government will ensure every young Kiwi under the age of 20 is given the opportunity to be in work, education or training, and plans to develop a conservation apprenticeship scheme to help do that, Labour’s Youth Affairs spokesperson...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Candles out on teachers’ slice of birthday cake
    Today may be Novopay’s second birthday, but there’s little to celebrate, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Novopay has cost the taxpayer tens of millions of dollars already, and the cost is still climbing....
    Labour | 04-09
  • National’s blatant broadband pork barrelling misses the mark by a country...
    National’s blatant pork-barrelling ICT announcement today should reinforce a growing sceptical electorate’s view that they are all about the gift wrap and not the present, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Instead of addressing the real issues - the woeful...
    Labour | 04-09
  • More evidence of the need to clean up the system
    The latest release of emails and messages between disgraced Minister Judith Collins and blogger Cameron Slater are more evidence of the urgent need to clean up politics, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. "This new evidence confirms a near constant flow...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Labour commits to stable funding for voluntary sector
    A Labour Government will establish long-term funding and streamline contract accountability for community and voluntary groups, says Labour’s spokesperson for the sector Louisa Wall. Announcing Labour’s policy for the community and voluntary sector, she said this would give much greater...
    Labour | 04-09
  • Better trained and skilled workforce under Labour
    Labour is committed to a skilled workforce that benefits businesses as well as their workers, and will increase workplace training to improve productivity and drive innovation, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Labour believes the Government should support New Zealanders into...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will make renting a better option
    Labour will provide greater security of tenure for renters, and build more state and social housing, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour believes every kid deserves a decent start in life. That means a warm, dry and secure home....
    Labour | 03-09
  • At least 15 new taxes under National
    John Key is the last person to talk about creating taxes, presiding over a Government that has imposed at least 15 new taxes, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “John Key tried a novel line in the debate last night claiming...
    Labour | 03-09
  • Labour will strengthen New Zealand’s democracy
    A Labour Government will act quickly to protect and enhance New Zealand’s reputation as one of the most open and least corrupt countries in the world, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “The health of any democracy is improved by greater...
    Labour | 02-09
  • MANA Movement says tax cut on GST must be first priority – Minto
    “If Prime Minister John Key has money available for tax cuts then cutting GST must be the first priority”,  said MANA Movement Economic Justice Spokesperson John Minto. GST is a nasty tax on low-income families”, said Minto. “People in the...
    Mana | 02-09
  • The Maori Party’s Mana-Enhancing Relationship with National – Minto
    “First we had Cameron Slater and David Farrar backing Labour’s Kelvin Davis bid to unseat MANA Movement Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira.  Now we have Slater writing a pro-Te Ururoa Flavell article on his website, Whale...
    Mana | 02-09
  • There’s Only One Poll That Counts
    “One of the oldest sayings in politics is that there is only one poll that counts – the one on Election Day – and that’s the one that I am focusing on” remarked the MANA Movement candidate for Waiariki, Annette...
    Mana | 02-09
  • Local communities critical to Civil Defence
    Labour will focus on empowering New Zealand communities to be resilient in Civil Defence disasters, says Labour’s Civil Defence spokesperson Clare Curran. Announcing Labour’s Civil Defence policy, she says that Labour will work with schools, voluntary agencies and community groups...
    Labour | 02-09
  • Labour looks to long-life passports, gambling harm review
    A return to 10 year passports and a review of gambling laws are highlights of Labour’s Internal Affairs policy released today. “More than 15,000 New Zealanders signed a petition calling on the Government to revert to the 10 year system...
    Labour | 02-09
  • The success of right-wing counter messaging in the election
    One of the reasons National won the election was due to its success in counter messaging – and the way so many media commentators ran with th the right-wing spin. Here are some examples. Dirty Politics The original message was...
    The Daily Blog | 22-09
  • New Flag competition
    New Flag competition...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • No time for self-pity
    After 23 meetings across the largest non-Maori electorate in the country – almost all of which went fantastically, approx 4,500km on the odometer, positive MSM and social media coverage, and polling well, I admit my team and I headed to...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • The 30 second speech that could have saved the Moment of Truth
    As the dust settles and we struggle to understand what the bloody hell happened on Saturday, many point to Kim’s failure at the Moment of Truth to present his evidence. I think that Kim was poorly advised and that politics requires a...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • Internet MANA and the 2014 election
    It was always going to be a hard task for Hone Harawira to hold onto his Te Tai Tokerau seat when the political establishment united in a coalition to defeat him and the chance for Internet MANA to bring more...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Unity in Action
    Yes the Left have taken a drubbing, but never mind, time to pick ourselves up off the floor, patch up our wound pride, dust ourselves off, cast around for our friends and allies, and re-enter the fray. Lots of work...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • A Fiji democratic mandate for the coup leader – what now for the media?
    Attorney-General Sayad-Khaiyum and Rear-Admiral (Ret) Voreqe Bainimarama’s Fiji First party is poised to lead the country in the next four years. Photo: Mads Anneberg, an AUT Pacific Media Centre student on internship in Suva with Repúblika Magazine and Pacific Scoop...
    The Daily Blog | 21-09
  • Why I voted Labour and why 2017 will be different
    As a 3nd and 5th generation Kiwi-Indian (depending on which side of the family we have to go with), my relationship with New Zealand is a special one. Like other New Zealanders who are not of the Caucasian variety, the...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Humble Pie
    Oh. My. God. This was a heartbreaking nightmare. I was wrong, horribly, horribly, horribly wrong. I honestly believed that the resources, the media attention, the vile toxic politics exposed by Dirty Politics and the mass surveillance lies would have seen...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Election 2014; A Post-mortem; a Wake; and one helluva hang-over
    .   . It would be fair to say that the results for Election 2014 did not go as anticipated. The Left has had a drubbing – and some of it was of our own making. In other aspects, there...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Voting turnout affected by bad weather?
    . . NZ, Upper Hutt, 20 September –  Cold, wet weather in the Hutt Valley, north of Wellington may be impacting on voter turn-out. A head-count of people visiting the Trentham School Voting Station in Moonshine Rd, Upper Hutt, indicated...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Final total of advance voting
    And the final total for the advance voting was a staggering 717,579 advance votes against 334,558 in 2011       Tonight, I’ll be watching the TV3 election coverage because I could bare Paul Henry’s smugness one inch more than Mike Hosking’s...
    The Daily Blog | 20-09
  • Vice article on NZ election
    Here is my Vice article on the NZ election....
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • The attempt to kill off Internet MANA
    It’s the last day of campaigning today and the long list of those attacking Internet MANA got longer yesterday with Winston Peters backing Labour candidate Kelvin Davis against the MANA Movement’s Hone Harawira. Davis is now supported by Labour, National,...
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • A final word on the election – it’s now all up to you
    Brothers & Sisters, the fate of Aotearoa is now all in your hands. We here at the Daily Blog have thrown everything we can at this bloody Government and have spent every waking hour of this campaign trying to highlight...
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • I can’t tell what is National Party advert and what is the NZ Herald – ...
    I can’t tell what is National Party advert and what is the NZ Herald – but then again, I never could...
    The Daily Blog | 19-09
  • TVNZ election coverage – white people telling other white people why Nati...
    TVNZ election coverage – white people telling other white people why National Party is great...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • REVIEW: Royals of Kihikihi
    What an absolutely stunning show.  I had to ask twice to check I’d heard right that this is the first staged production for Samuel Christopher, who also played a raw, real, but vulnerable, Wolf Royal, home from London for his...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • 800 Cops to detain 15 ‘terrorists’ – why Australia’s hysterical Isl...
    I’m sorry but I can’t take this current Australian terror threat seriously. 800 cops to detain 15 people and arrest one of them? A week after Abbot decides to send in Australian forces to the cluster fuck of Iraq, suddenly...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Unbelievable corruption inside Government to attack Kim Dotcom
    The corruption inside this Government just more and more filthy – we now have an ex-Customs Lawyer quitting  after being told to bury information that could embarrass the Government, specifically to do with Kim Dotcom… Curtis Gregorash said he was told...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Everyone Loves A Win-Win That Keeps G...
      Permit me to quote some figures at you… -68% of New Zealanders think political news on television focuses too much on politicians’ personalities and not enough on real issues. This is the key result of a recent UMR survey commissioned by...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, another week of ...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, another week of being the most in demand broadcaster in the country...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • EXCLUSIVE: Te Tai Tokerau independent poll (44% Hone-27% Kelvin) vs Maori T...
    The Te Tai Tokerau Maori TV poll on Monday this week painted a bleak picture for Internet MANA supporters, and it’s results have been seized upon by Labour, NZ First and even the Maori Party (who seem set once again...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • The time for TPPA weasel words is over
    Almost every day of the election campaign there has been a policy announcement that would potentially run foul of what I understand is currently in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA):  more constraints on foreign investment or investors … regulation of...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • MELTDOWN – Maori Party turns on their own Te Tai Tokerau candidate – ag...
    The tensions are building in Te Tai Tokerau with the Maori Party on the verge of meltdown. Days out from the election, the Maori Party Executive has tried to heavy their own Te Tai Tokerau Electoral Committee and their own candidate, Te Hira Paenga,...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • We Can Change this Government
    We Can Change this Government – Mike Treen at the First Union stop work election meeting...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Election 2014: For and Against
    With the general election tomorrow, we have had a very noisy campaign but little sign that the electorate wishes for a fundamental change of governmental direction. This reflects in part the fact that the economic cycle is close to its decadal...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Eye To Eye Uploaded: Martyn ‘Bomber’ Bradbury
    This interview was filmed a couple of weeks ago between Willie Jackson and myself, I was a tad off with my prediction of NZ First....
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • The Donghua Liu Affair – The Players Revealed
      . . – Special investigation by Frank Macskasy & ‘Hercules‘ Speculation that the Beehive office of Immigration Minister, Michael Woodhouse, was behind the release of a letter linking Labour leader, David Cunliffe, with controversial Chinese businessman, Donghua Liu, is...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • As if you needed another reason to boycott Telecom/Spark – they sold NZ d...
    It should read ‘never stop spying’. As if you needed another reason to boycott Telecom/Spark – they sold us down the river to the US by allowing the Southern Cross cable to be tapped… The ability for US intelligence agencies...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • The NZ First-Labour Party attack strategy against Internet MANA better work
    The final days of the campaign are ticking down and Labour and NZ First are manoeuvring to kill off the Internet MANA Party by both backing Kelvin Davis for Te Tai Tokerau. It’s a risky gambit that they better pray to Christ...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Bill English’s latest insult to beneficiaries – apparently they are lik...
    National’s hatred towards the poor continues unabated as National desperately try to throw raw meat to their reactionary voter base in the hope to inspire enough hate and loathing to win back their redneck voters from the Conservative Party and from...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Eminem ain’t happy with John Key
    Eminem ain’t happy with John Key...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Key claims he did not inhale
    Key claims he did not inhale...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Final prediction on election result 2014
    What an election campaign. The character assassination of David Cunliffe kicked things off with the Herald on Sunday falsely claiming $100 00 bottles of wine, $15 000 books and $150 000 in donations  from a donor that turned out to be...
    The Daily Blog | 18-09
  • Live blog: Bainamarama takes commanding lead in Fiji elections
      Interview with Repúblika editor Ricardo Morris and Pacific Scoop’s Mads Anneberg. PACIFIC SCOOP TEAM By Ricardo Morris, Mads Anneberg, Alistar Kata and Biutoka Kacimaiwai in Suva WHILE the results are provisional at this stage, it is clear today that...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • 5AA Australia: NZ Elections Two Days To Go! + Edward Snowden + Julian Assan...
    Recorded live on 18/09/14 – Captured Live on Ustream at http://www.ustream.tv/channel/multimedia-investments-ltd 5AA Australia’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning deliver their weekly bulletin: Across The Ditch. This week, they discuss the latest news as New Zealanders go to the polls on...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • What has Colin Craig done for his Press Secretary to quit 2 days before ele...
    This is VERY strange.  Colin Craig’s Press Secretary Rachel McGregor, has quit 2 days before the election, allegedly telling ZB that Colin Craig was a “very manipulative man”. I’ve met Rachel many times in the past as Colin’s Press Secretary, she is...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • “If you want steak, go to the supermarket and buy steak,” – A brief w...
    “If you want steak, go to the supermarket and buy steak,” said Key in the final leaders debate. Problem of course is that the 250 000 – 285 000 children living in poverty can not afford steak, milk, butter, eggs...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • National’s final bash of beneficiaries before the election
    On cue, whenever National feel threatened, they roll out a little bennie bash just to keep their redneck voter base happy. Nothing like a bit of raw meat policy to keep National voters focused on the evil threat solo parents...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • With All Of This In Mind, I Vote
    This is my last blog before the election and I really just want to speak from the heart. Right now in this country it seems to me that a lot of people consider the “essentials” in life to be simply...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Left has to vote strategically this election
    The dedication, loyalty, and tribalism of party politics means that sometimes the left lets itself down by not voting strategically. We all want our favoured party to get maximum votes, naturally, but the winner-takes-all approach doesn’t always suit multi-party left...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Dear NZ – as you enter the polling booth, stand up for your rights
    The last days before a NZ general election are a busy time as politicians make their pitch and party activists prepare to get out the vote. It is sort of weird watching from the distance of Europe the strangest election...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • What is Waihopai, John, if it isn’t a facility for “mass surveillance...
    John Key assured us on RNZ’s Nine to Noon programme yesterday that “In terms of the Fives Eyes data bases… yes New Zealand will contribute some information but not mass wholesale surveillance.” How does this square with the operation of the...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Catherine Delahunty – Mass Surveillance and the Banality of E...
    Renowned journalist and intellectual Hannah Arendt coined the phrase “the banality of evil” to describe the normalisation of genocide in Nazi Germany. I thought of her phrase when I was listening to Glenn Greenwald and other international whistle-blowers talking about...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Election. Down. To. The. Wire
    Funny how last week it was John Key winning by 50%, now it’s neck and neck. I have always believed this election would be down to the wire and it is proving so. The flawed landline opinion polls the mainstream...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • 3rd Degree uses Whaleoil for story ideas as if Dirty Politics never happene...
    TV3s 3rd Degrees smear job on Kim Dotcom last night doesn’t bear much repeating. It was pretty pathetic journalism from a team who have brought us some great journalism in the past. It is sad to see 3rd Degree stooping...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Live blog: Bainimarama takes early lead in Fiji’s election
    Pacific Scoop’s Alistar Kata reports from yesterday’s voting. By Alistar Kata of Pacific Scoop in Suva Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama took an early lead in provisional results in the Fiji general election last night. With provisional results from 170 out...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • Has The NSA Constructed The Perfect PPP?
    Former intelligence analyst and whistleblower, Edward Snowden – speaking live to those gathered at the Auckland Town Hall on Monday September 17, 2014. Investigation by Selwyn Manning. THE PRIME MINISTER JOHN KEY’s admission on Wednesday that whistleblower Edward Snowden “may...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • No way – Key admits Snowden is right
    After claiming there was no middle ground. After claiming there was no mass surveillance. After calling Glenn Greenwald a henchman and a loser. After all the mainstream media pundits screamed at Kim’s decision to take his evidence to Parliamentary Privileges...
    The Daily Blog | 17-09
  • LGNZ congratulates National
    LGNZ congratulates National Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) congratulates re-elected Prime Minister John Key and the National led government on winning their third consecutive term following Saturday’s general election. LGNZ President Lawrence Yule acknowledges...
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • The Letter – 22 September 2014
    John Key’s win is historic. In the history of MMP elections – worldwide – ever – no government has won an absolute majority. MMP was imposed on Germany to make sure that country never had another Hitler. It is designed...
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Election Coverage – None Better Than Trans Tasman
    To get a steer on what was going to happen in the election - away from the histrionics of the mainstream coverage - the best place to go was The Main Report Group’s weekly political report Trans Tasman....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Federated Farmers intemperate
    For the second time in a week Federated Farmers has made intemperate and provocative comments on environmental issues, says EDS....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • MP’s Stolen Items Recovered
    Following a complaint to Parliamentary Services today [ September 19 ], items which had been stolen from NZ First MP Andrew Williams’ Wellington parliamentary office have been recovered and returned....
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Election results bad news for those on benefits
    Beneficiary Advocate Kay Brereton says, “ The election result holds no good news for people on benefits, National campaigned successfully with their beneficiary bashing agenda, and will now believe their punitive treatment of beneficiaries has the support...
    Scoop politics | 22-09
  • Opportunity to progress water infrastructure
    “National’s re-election is an opportunity to develop the infrastructure New Zealand needs to provide surety of water for agriculture, town drinking water supply, waterways, recreational use and to future proof the country from climate change,” says Andrew...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Wellington City joins the global call for 100% clean
    At 1:00 pm, residents and visitors of Wellington gathered at the summit of Mt Victoria to join the millions strong call for a 100% clean future....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Hikoi with us from Cape Reinga to Auckland Oil Conference!
    Monday 22 September 2014: Maori from different tribal areas along the western length of Northland are organising a hikoi starting on Saturday to a Government oil conference in Auckland to make sure that Norwegian oil giant Statoil gets the message:...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Roy Morgan NZ Election Update With A Look At The Polls
    Roy Morgan NZ Election Update With A Look At The Polls National re-elected to third term with record high vote as Labour slumps to worst result in over 90 years...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • National-led Government wins mandate for RMA reforms
    An unprecedented increase in support for the third-term National Party, the best electoral performance since 1899, has delivered a clear mandate for reform of the Resource Management Act says Federated Farmers. “Vital reforms to the RMA have...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • New Zealand says no to Culture of Death
    Right to Life is pleased that the people of New Zealand have rejected a culture of death by refusing to elect a Labour/Green government that supported the decriminalisation of abortion....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Q + A – Steven Joyce
    CORIN Steven Joyce if we could start with how things are going to look now with your support partners. Can you just run us through, National can technically govern alone on what you’ve got at the moment, do you think...
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Q + A – Kelvin Davis
    SUSAN Well earlier this morning, just before we came to air in fact, Corin spoke to Kelvin Davis, one of the big winners of the night, the new MP for Te Tai Tokerau....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Q + A – David Cunliffe
    CORIN Joining me now is Labour Leader, David Cunliffe. Good morning to you Mr Cunliffe. This is a tough result for Labour, how much personal responsibility do you take for this....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Grey Power congratulates Key
    Grey Power National President Terry King congratulated John Key for his party’s “resounding win “ in yesterday’s election and hoped that the new National Government would look hard at issues affecting the ever–growing number of older New Zealanders....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • EMA congratulates PM John Key and National
    The Employers and Manufacturers Association extend hearty congratulations to the re-election of Prime Minister John Key and National....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • Helen Clark Receives Inaugural Women’s Health Rights Award
    Helen Clark was honoured as the first recipient of the Women’s Health Rights Award at the 121st Woman’s Suffrage event held in Auckland....
    Scoop politics | 21-09
  • National deal with New Zealand First unlikely
    The National party is unlikely to offer a confidence and supply agreement to New Zealand First according to Dr Ryan Malone, Director Training and Research at Civicsquare....
    Scoop politics | 20-09
  • Daily Election Update #12: NZ First to hold balance of power
    Winston Peters’ NZ First Party will hold the balance of power after tomorrow’s election, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict. Mr Peters is then expected to back a National-led...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Election Day is Time to Refocus on Policies
    Over the course of this election campaign there has been a lot of focus on dirty politics and spying, and not a lot on policy. With election day looming, Gareth Morgan is calling for people to refocus on the issues....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • The Kiwi FM Alternative Election Commentary
    Saturday 20 September from 7pm on 102.2 Auckland, 102.1 Wellington, 102.5 Canterbury, or KiwiFM.co.nz...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Beneficiary Bashing unacceptable
    Kay Brereton of the Beneficiary Advocacy Federation of New Zealand says “ the comment made by Bill English yesterday comparing beneficiaries to crack addicts is shocking and incredibly poorly timed.”...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • UN Experience Beneficial
    Acclaim Otago representatives have just completed their participation at the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disability examination of the New Zealand government in Geneva, Switzerland. "It was an interesting two days which we believe has...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Changing face of NZ should be reflected in newsrooms
    With Fairfax Media’s Journalism Intern search closing on Sunday, Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy is urging aspiring journalists from Maori, Pacific and ethnic communities to apply. The deadline was recently extended to 10pm, Sunday...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • SPCA expresses concern over toxin in waterways
    Ric Odom CEO of Royal NZ SPCA has expressed concern over the toxic poison 1080 entering waterways, but DoC, Council’s and Ministry of Health have colluded to make it legal....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • NZ 2014 Election Index – 13-18 September
    Below is iSentia’s final weekly Election Index, covering the period 13-18 September and showing the relative amount of coverage of nine Party Leaders in the lead up to the National Election across news media and social media. The methodology used...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Epsom Candidate (Adam Holland) More Liberal Than ACT
    For the past four years I, like 500,000 other New Zealanders, have been illegally smoking cannabis for medicinal purposes and/or even just for the occasional laugh with friends on the weekend. We don't hurt anybody, we don't cause nuisance, we...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Left Coalition Will Save Dolphins
    A left coalition would safeguard both Māui and Hector’s dolphins, as well as revive our inshore ecosystems. Labour, Internet Mana and the Green Party all have strong policies in place for dolphin protection. The Maori Party, and to a certain...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Waihoroi Shortland: Ngāti Hine is not standing alone
    The Chairman of Te Rūnanga a Iwi o Ngāpuhi, Sonny Tau is blowing smoke worthy of a Dotcom rally with claims that Ngati Hine is standing alone in its opposition to Tūhoronuku says the Chairman of Te Rūnanga o Ngati...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Oceania voices on environment loud and strong
    While money and energy continues to be spent on global talks about climate change, Pacific islanders are scrambling to build sea walls out of sticks, stones, shells and coral, to protect their lands and homes from erosion and rising sea...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Prime Time with Sean Plunket – Tonight
    No MPs tonight --- the campaign will be over at 9 30. Instead we will look back --- and possibly forward on what we have learned and what might happen. Listener Political Columnist Jane Clifton Editor in Chief, NZ Herald,...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Election fails to address youth financial wellbeing
    Young people don’t feel included in New Zealand’s financial success and believe inequality is a problem, according to a new survey conducted by Westpac’s Fin-Ed Centre at Massey University....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Winston’s Waffle doesn’t hide the facts
    The Conservative Party is celebrating the ASA's finding announced today that rejected all but one of the complaints raised against its controversial “Conservatives or Peters” pamphlet. “Despite pages of complaints from Peters legal team the only...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • NZ Independent Coalition looking forward to tomorrow
    “Our team is looking forward to tomorrow. It is a real opportunity to reclaim politics for the people,” said NZ Independent Coalition leader Brendan Horan....
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Insights Issue 35/2014 – 19 September 2014
    Insights Issue 35/2014 - 19 September 2014 In This Issue • RMA reform the golden unicorn of policy | Jenesa Jeram...
    Scoop politics | 19-09
  • Special voting arrangements made for NIWA crew
    One of the most unusual polling stations for this year’s general election is in the middle of the ocean miles from land. NIWA’s flagship research vessel Tangaroa, has been doubling as a polling booth for crew and scientists at sea....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Tourism operators urged to vote strategically
    Tourism operators should make sure they know their local candidates’ view on tourism and use their vote to support the country’s second largest export industry, says Chris Roberts, Chief Executive, Tourism Industry Association New Zealand (TIA)....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • WGTN: March for free education
    We are students, university staff, and members of the community. Whichever parties form a government after September 20th, we are demanding an end to corporatisation of education....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Evidence of Corruption a National Scandal
    Internet Party leader Laila Harré will take evidence of corruption to international forums if there is not a full Royal Commission to investigate the growing evidence of the systematic use and abuse of democratic institutions and processes for political...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Govt continues to throw money at charter school experiment
    Official documents reveal the three primary sector charter schools approved last week will cost $2 million to set up as well as divert another $1.5 million of potential taxpayer investment from local state schools next year....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • ACT Final Election Rally
    Elections campaigns are an opportunity for political parties to put candidates and policy to enable voters to choose what sort of New Zealand we want. In this campaign there have been three tests by which you can assess the electoral...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Taxpayers on Hook Again for Solid Energy
    Responding to the Fairfax article that taxpayers are extending another $103 million to keep Solid Energy afloat, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says:...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Invermay Petition Tops 10,000 Signatures
    People across New Zealand continue to express their disgust at the downgrading of Invermay, says Dunedin North MP David Clark, as the Save Invermay petition he instigated earlier this year topped the 10,000 signature mark just days before the 2014...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • McVicar vows to continue fight for police
    Garth McVicar stated at a public meeting last week that he would fight to retain a 24/7 Police Station in Napier and no reduction in the number of police staff for the Hawkes Bay region, some said he was simply...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Party Vote Our Weapon in Fight Against Government Corruption
    Internet MANA urges New Zealanders to use their party vote to confront corruption in any new government....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Election day is tomorrow – make sure you’re a part of it!
    Tomorrow, Saturday 20 September, is election day, and New Zealanders’ last chance to have a say on who leads the country for the next three years....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Is the Shape of our Government out of the hands of Voters?
    In the last stuff.co.nz / Ipsos Political Poll before Saturdays election, National is down 5.1% to 47.7% and Labour up 3.7% to 26.15%. These results are remarkably similar to the 2011 election where National received 47.3% of the vote and...
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Spirit of Suffrage a Call to Action for All Kiwi Women
    Internet MANA is drawing on the courage and integrity of New Zealand women on Suffrage Day – Friday, September, 19 – to encourage them to pay tribute to the spirit of their foremothers who gained women the vote....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
  • Live Election Night Coverage on TV And Online
    Māori Television’s KOWHIRI 2014 – ELECTION SPECIAL kicks off at 7.00pm this Saturday with a five-hour broadcast focusing on the Māori electorates....
    Scoop politics | 18-09
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