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The only response needed

Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.

At 6.5% off, that was the least accurate of the bunch.

The drop from that poll to now in the Fairfax is 4.5%. If you translate that to the actual starting point, National’s down to around 43%, which is what the other, competent, polls show.

I doubt the latest Fairfax brainfart will be a “major blow” anyone’s morale.

Updated: The Colmar-Brunton poll on the same day contradicts the shifts and the percentages in the Fairfax poll. It also covers the same 19th-23rd of October time period.

162 comments on “The only response needed”

  1. Michael Vally:

    Dear oh dear oh dear.

    Thats four dears.

    Your like a repug who watches faux news, you only take notice on the polls that have your guys doing well, (which havent been a lot for labour over the years)

    Keep ya head in the sand, big boy.

    BTW, what are the trends saying?

  2. Policy Parrot 2

    I would be interested in Fairfax publishing their methodology for their polling; specifically:

    – Time of the day called,
    – Whether mobiles are called or not,
    – Call-backs if busy or NCA are performed, or such pollee’s are discarded

    The problem really lies with the associated spin, which drives the next news cycle. If such a premise is based on false assumptions, it can become a bit of a self-fulfilling tendency (i.e. if voters think there is no contest, why bother considering an alternative, unless obviously motivated?)

    • Te Reo Putake 2.1

      Sample size? One

      Time of day? Just after the editorial meeting at Granny finishes.

      Mobiles? Not needed, the Herald operator puts us straight through to the editor.

      Call backs? Also not needed; once the editor gives the instructions, we know what numbers to write.

      Edit, first person to spot the obvious mistake wins a chocolate fish. I put it down to typing through tears.

    • Steve 2.2

      Also how often do they Poll? My quick look back over the last year shows Fairfax trend was to poll every 3 months Nov 28th -3 Dec 2012, Feb 10-14 2013,May 19-23 2013,Aug 12-25 2013, Suddenly we have a 2 month poll (Oct 19-23) taken before the latest Asset Sale flop and a week before Labour’s annual conference in Christchurch which makes front page headlines on Labour Day. Interesting

    • Anon 2.3

      As someone who once worked on these polls for Ipsos/Fairfax, I can give a little bit of information on this. In May, the last polling period I have the records for, the times called were:
      Sunday – 19th May (AM) 9:30am-3:00pm
      Sunday – 19th May (PM) 3:00pm- 9:00pm
      Monday – 20th May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Tuesday – 21st May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Wednesday – 22nd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Thursday – 23rd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      No mobile phones were called in the time I worked there. Callbacks if someone was busy were regularly undertaken. The work environment was professional and there was no obvious conservative bias (though all of their polls seem to show one, I suspect because of the very nature of landline polling.)

      • Thanks very much for that. I always figured Fairfax’s rightward spin was a result of demographic biases in their methods, rather than outright bias or shoddy work overall, but it’s nice to have it confirmed. The landline bias would certainly contribute.

      • the pigman 2.3.2

        Oh come on Farrar, I know the private polling business is drying up, but Fairfax?! Really…?

    • David H 2.4

      This is all I could find. Random Phone indeed. I would presume that they also only do Landlines.

      http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/fairfax-ipsos-poll-october-2013/

  3. phil 3

    The comments on the Fairfax website were telling. Pro Nat comments were given 5 thumbs up, while the very next (anti) Nat comments received 5 or 6 thumbs down. Clearly indicates the bias of that network. ho hum…

    • Francis 3.1

      Since it hasn’t been posted anywhere on this page, this is where the results (and comments) are located: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour

      See a lot of comments implying that somehow, National’s policies are moderate while Labour’s are somehow extreme. My bias view would say that it’s the other way around (National are far-right, particularly economically while Labour is somewhere around center-left/left), but I guess they’re probably at around the same level. That would mean the 2014 election will be a clear vote between left- and right-wing policies, rather than the usual ones where there’s not much difference between the two main parties.

      If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

      • Tat Loo (CV) 3.1.1

        If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

        It probably more represents the demographic who most visit Stuff and NZ Herald online i.e. persons earning >$60K pa.

        What I see in the big lift in the last 2 Roy Morgans is that a lot of New Zealanders are not fooled by the MSM droning on, but were waiting for a clearly defined Opposition alternative to show up.

        • Sir Cullen's Sidekick 3.1.1.1

          Yeah only Roy Morgan poll is reliable as it shows Labour winning.. Good one.

        • miravox 3.1.1.2

          I think they are manipulated by the propaganda of the government regurgitated by the media. It doesn’t help that people born in 70s and onwards haven’t seen a proper left-wing government. I think Clark was proudly centrist.

          When we moved to Austria, we were stunned by how ‘left-wing’ this place is – as have been all our NZ visitors. We have to remind ourselves that this country is under a government that is a grand coalition of the equivalent of NZ’s Labour and National, so is by definition ‘centrist’. (Vienna itself is the equivalent of a Labour-Green coalition).

          National really is far-right, economically, by comparison.

      • Wayne 3.1.2

        You need to get out more if you think NZ is in the grip of a far right government (though at least you admit it is in part your bias).

        • KJT 3.1.2.1

          You are correct Wayne, A bunch of thieving wannabee Fascists, is a better description.

          • Wayne 3.1.2.1.1

            Try telling that to potential voters and see how far you get. Unless of course you think the half of NZer’s are in fact thieving fascists, or deluded pawns.

            • greywarbler 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Maybe they are thieving pawns or deluded fascists. That is up for study and discussion. Good if we can refute it.

            • KJT 3.1.2.1.1.2

              No. The majority of New Zealanders are misled pawns.

              Misled by the highly effective propaganda, and re-writing of history, of the neo-liberal religion.

              Unfortunately not many now are old enough to remember how much better off we were under genuinely socialist Governments. Before our “unfortunate experiment”.

              People like Mike Moore, Don Brash, maybe Rodney Hide and yourself, perhaps, genuinely believe in that religion and have the best of intentions. Like many religious people. Not much difference from the, “happy clappy”, cult followers who try and attract people off the streets.

              The Neo-liberal fascists, like all cult leaders, are happy to use the misled and the “true believers” to advance their socially destructive, but personally lucrative, agenda.

  4. Tat Loo (CV) 4

    As noted in Open Mike, Fairfax are using a different polling company than pre 2011 elections.

  5. Tracey 5

    Do they publish the questions?

    Brett given how easily you dismiss all keys lies your opinion has limitations.

  6. Disraeli Gladstone 6

    At this rate, if all parties and partisans can ignore the polls and write them off without a comment, that would be great. Because I’m getting tired of the staggering level of ignorance on statistics from 8 out of 10 people.

  7. Tracey 7

    Brett. Read the honest man thread and tell me which lies you accept amongst those listed.

    • Tracey:

      I was born to lead, not to read.

      • fender 7.1.1

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

      • fender 7.1.2

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

        • greywarbler 7.1.2.1

          fender
          Brave New World, Brett and humour, what a joke. Keep up the quips, we should put down the whips now he reveals his value – a sense of humour no less. He led, and you finished in great form fender.
          I was born to lead, not to read.- Brett Dale

          (I looked up Google for interest and it has this for another Brett Dale I think, in the USA. ‘Mr. Dale is a partner with the Firm, who represents highly compensated individuals and closely held businesses in various industries.’ Don’t you love ‘the Firm’, and the euphemism ‘highly compensated’ for well paid or getting smashing salaries. And compensated for what – putting in their precious time working rather than doing other more enjoyable things. I understand there are a lot of people in the USA looking for ‘compensation’)

          • fender 7.1.2.1.1

            Now I’ve messed up the thread with the same comment going into spam folder, I’m not one for quitting and just kept going :oops:

            [lprent: chopped out two. ]

            • greywarbler 7.1.2.1.1.1

              fender
              I see what you mean. The one at 10.29 with the link was the subtlest. But the Lord loves a trier they say. That sort of dedication is what we will need in the next year.
              That’s presuming we don’t have a copy cat ‘Bananarama’-style Pacific election.

  8. woodpecker 8

    I remember Tracy Watkins running a 2/3 front page in the Waikato Tiimes around mid November 2011 banging on about the 54% for nats. Interestingly about the same time as the nat hordings all around Hamilton got a new yellow sticker saying something like “Your vote is critical”.

    • Thomas 8.1

      Voters don’t like the idea of one party governing alone. That’s why we adopted MMP. If a poll puts one party over 50%, it scares voters off. Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable and they would rather the outcome be narrower.

      If you want to sabotage National through biased polls, bias them *towards* National and scare off voters.

      • woodpecker 8.1.1

        “Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable”. The way I read that is, National polling suggested a somewhat smaller percentage than what Tracy was writing, hence the stickers. At the same time telling left voters not to bother.
        As far as your MMP “and they would rather the outcome be narrower” part. Let me just say, personally, even if I thought it was 100% certain for a left win, I will still be taking my teenagers and anyone else I can find to the polling station.

        • Thomas 8.1.1.1

          I would also vote regardless of how certain the outcome is. However, you and I are not representative of the general population. A quarter of kiwis didn’t vote in 2011.

          In both 2011 and 2002 we saw one party polling above 50% shortly before the election. But on election day we saw record-setting low turnouts and those parties needing support partners.

          Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single-party governments. Polls have shown that. That’s why we have only had coalition governments since 1996 and why Germany (which also uses MMP) has only had coalitions since 1949. Heck, that’s why we introduced MMP in the first place.

          I think National saw the risk of people staying home and that’s why they put up the “your vote is crucial” stickers.

          • woodpecker 8.1.1.1.1

            ” Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single party governments” Your linked poll says 54.1% yes to 39.0% no.
            There’s that magic 54% again.
            Cup of tea anyone? Anybody at all?
            But I am interested if the stickers popped up in other parts of the country.

      • Fisiani 8.1.2

        You seem Thomas to forget that support over 50% is not impossible given how well the National government has turned the economy from recession into growth. Record employment figures and rising wages and steadily closing the gap with Australian wages. A surge of Kiwis returning home and virtually every province booming and growing the economy even more. probable growth now 3.5%. Another 400 days of further improvement and 50% is quite unreasonable. 60% is a more realistic target. National has clearly won the heart and mind of the centre just in time for the summer barbeque season. Labour and the Greens are merely fighting for their share of the dyed in the wool socialists. When socialists despair of Labour they shift to the Greens. When they think that Labour has a chance then they shift away from the Greens. The Labour/Green bloc is stagnant. It is idiotic to think that National polling over 50% will engender complacency, the Centre is far too focused on victory to be complacent. Far more likely it will mean that not even the offer of free KFC will get the socialist vote out.
        Now if Labour had a leader like Shane Jones then it would all change, He is however loathed by the Left. I fear that Robertson is playing the long game and wishes Cunliffe to take the blame for ignominy in November 2014 and be ushered in as the leader for 2017. He will again be lazy and probably have the distinction of being the only Labour candidate to deliver party vote third place for two elections in a row.

        • Naturesong 8.1.2.1

          This.

          Despite the fact that the current govt has literally run the country into the ground;
          – record debt and deficits which will take a generation to pay back
          – turned a military spying institution which shares its data with the US on its own citizens
          – whose vision for the future is the destruction of NZ’s environment and along with it the tourism industry and the value add our food exporters are able to charge.
          – NZ taxpayer subsidies to overseas corporations
          – has stood idly by while manufacturers and exporters (along with their local supply chains) have gone to the wall
          – constant demonization of nz citizens whose only crime was to lose their job when their employers either went out of business, cut jobs to prevent going out of business, or cynically cut jobs because with the labour market as it currently is you can offer workers the choice of leaving or working extra unpaid hours to fill the gap.
          – driven down wages and increased precarious work by legislating against the right to be treated fairly in the workplace.
          – Sold off critical public utilities for next to nothing
          – missmanaged the Chch rebuild – to my mind, likely to be the biggest missed opportunity of this govt.
          – Its not been in the news yet, but there has been significant damage to the health system
          The malfeasance and incompetance of the current govt simply staggers the mind.

          BUT, over the coming year you will see the talking points displayed in the comment above repeated in blogs, radio, television and newspaper again and again. New Zealand will be flooded with these lies.
          It wont make the talking points any less false, but it will be accepted by many many people.

          The one thing this government is truly outstanding at, is propaganda.

        • David H 8.1.2.2

          Fisiani
          You should write comedy… Well you gave me a laugh.

        • KJT 8.1.2.3

          Forgetting of course, Fizzer that most of the growth is because of an earthquake and a wholly fortuitous rise in dairy prices.

          Not to mention the discreet pre-election pump priming of the economy which usually results in an interest rate and borrowing hemorrhage safely away from election year.

          And that we weathered the recession so well because of Labours saving, instead of National’s huge election bribe, tax cuts, for Hawaii holidays, and Keating’s regulation of the Aussie banks. Both policies which National would have reversed had they been in power.

  9. Thomas 9

    All the polls had National above 49% in the weeks leading up to the 2011 election. Fairfax’s poll was the worst performer at 54%. But that was performed by Research International; Fairfax have changed to Ipsos, whose record is unclear.

    I think voters just didn’t want one party governing alone. So on election day National’s support softened The same thing happened in 2002, when Labour’s 50% support softened on election day. Voters like coalitions. If anything, having the polls predicting National governing alone hurts National.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    At the end of the day, polls are imperfect. The quoted margin of error is 3.1%. (And that’s just a 95% confidence interval. i.e. at least 5% chance that the error is more than that. )

    I wouldn’t read too much into any poll; a 2% shift is not statistically significant. It’s noise.

    I dislike the fact that both sides of the political spectrum attack polls as being biased. The fact is that even a perfectly unbiased poll has error. It’s mathematically unavoidable.

  10. Armchair Critic 10

    The wrongest of the polls gets it wrong again, and that’s news? Yeah right. It’s almost like there’s a hidden agenda…

  11. chris73 11

    Translation:

    Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good, any poll showing National going up = bad

    I’d suggest all people on the left ignore this poll and instead accept that Labour/Greens have won the next election and so shouldn’t bother doing anything until the election results come in :)

    • miravox 11.1

      “Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good”

      Good news then, the poll did show Labour going up. Sometime you need to read more than the headline. Along with National, in a margin of error kinda way

      At worst the poll is neutral – taken after Key was getting his photo ops, Hooten and co questioning Cunliffe’s CV and NAct tossing in some policy in an attempt to shore up it’s social concern credentials. None of these will last

      I don’t see a problem with that poll, except it’s probably a bit blue, as history shows.

  12. Tracey 12

    Chris73

    I object to all polls and the oxygen they waste which cld otherwise be used for policy and issue elucidation

  13. gobsmacked 13

    It’s worth repeating:

    Every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Yes, EVERY published poll, not one single exception. Feel free to check.

    But then the voters turned up on election day, undermining democracy with their actual votes. Silly voters.

  14. rockape 14

    Yes Gobsmacked good of you to remember that the voters turned up on election day and gave National their vote and Labour their lowest poll in years.

  15. rockape 15

    It may be an inconvenient truth but in all the arguments about National getting less on election day than the polls predicted you seem to forget the Labour vote. A year out from the election 2011 national averaged 51% and got 47% on election day. Labour were polling 35% and got 27.5% on election day. A drop of 7.5%

    • chris73 15.1

      Who’d have thought that voters on the left tend to be more lazy then voters on the right

    • gobsmacked 15.2

      So? You think that’s a clever argument, because “RedBorg say Labour good National bad”. Not everyone is so monolithic as you and your t/roll team. Labour”s result was crap, so what? National still could not govern alone, and were dealt a mess that affects them every day in Parliament, and in the public perception.

      But thanks for reinforcing my point about the polls.

  16. rockape 16

    Just take election results . How did Labour do over 9 years, not so good! National may drop a little but compared to Labour and the Clark years they are doing surprisingly well. Labour no longer talk or even dream about a Labour Government. The best they can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first, that wouldnt be a government it would be a circus!
    When talking of polls remember they are a snapshot in time,they change! Thats why National dropped post Tea party and Labour dropped post Cuncliffe backstabbing Goeff and the where is the money farce.Both those incidences dropped their respective parties vote in the last few weeks of the election campaigne to the advantage of the Greens and NZ first.

    • gobsmacked 16.1

      Rockape, if you want a grown-up discussion about polls and predictive quality (though I suspect you really don’t), then let’s have one:

      Do you believe National will govern alone after the next election? If so, why (given the evidence cited)? If not, then who with?

      You say:

      The best Labour can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first

      But if you believe in polls’ accuracy, as you claim, then clearly that’s false. Labour plus Greens have had the numbers in all recent polls bar the Fairfax one.

      • rockape 16.1.1

        You asked for beliefs not facts. I believe that the economy and thereby jobs will grow over the next year. I believe that the health service stats and Law and order stats will continue to improve. I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National. I believe it will be Nationals turn to offfer a few smarties to the voters. The end result will be National polling enough to win the next election with an overall majority.
        You see what you dont realize is that the Greens are an albatross around the neck of Labour. That will make sure voters stay away from that dangerous alliance.

        PS why do you always feel trying to degrade those who disagree with you makes your point stronger. It doesnt it just makes you look childish.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.1.1

          Your personal opinion, eh, which by an amazing coincidence makes you sound like nothing more than a tiresome parrot reciting John Key’s mendacious bullshit.

          You people are transparent.

          We need better wingnuts.

        • Chris 16.1.1.2

          hello rocky, still dragging those knuckles I see…

        • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3

          “I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National.”

          Yeah right. If you didn’t notice, Lianne won by rather a landslide. I think the only way things would go well for National in CHCH is if they either massively change their current hands-off approach (remember they have this 50% payout offer to red-zoners in the courts right now) or if Lianne massively screws up. However Lianne won’t screw up because she is very competent, whereas National don’t look like they’re about to change direction either.

          So that’s a bit of a pipe dream.

          • rockape 16.1.1.3.1

            You watch lianne, A poletician I have a lot of time for, she will soon be sucking up to National a bit like Mayor Len Brown!

            • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3.1.1

              Er, what’s your point?

              Local government have to suck up to National government when it comes to things that they can’t afford to fund themselves, with CHCH being the obvious posterchild for needing government funds.

      • rockape 16.1.2

        Of course you are right re recent polls. Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.2.1

          Roy Morgan. Choke on it.

        • gobsmacked 16.1.2.2

          the cry is where is Cunliffe

          And this is why you get mocked.

          Repeating headlines from Sla-ter’s blog doesn’t earn you respect. It suggests you can’t think for yourself.

          There is no such cry from the people. They have lives.

          • rockape 16.1.2.2.1

            Look up the dictionary there is a difference between mocking and just insults. Its the latter that shows how shallow you are.

  17. rockape 17

    Once again when Labour supporters have no answer we see them back to the old abuse policy. Well if thats your best shot at debate you should maybe try a more adult attitude. Me ,I gave that sort of debate up when I was about 5 years old!

    • lprent 17.1

      Ah yes, you don’t handle criticism well. That is obvious. Certainly you don’t engage your brain enough to read and understand it. All of these these characteristics are obvious above.

      You must have stopped listening when you were about 5 years old and failed to let your mother finish your social education.

      I guess that is why you are still playing with your willy in public. Something that is also evident here.

      Just another whining wanker of the wight screaming about abuse because they can’t handle robust debate after stating assertions of their opinion as being “fact”. Oh well, fuckwits like you are useful for drowning out the few intelligent right wingers

      • rockape 17.1.1

        See your level is the same standard as some of your commentators why play the man not the ball. Try and keep your credibility up with some response to what i have commented on. Do you disagree that Labours polling on the average of polls in the yeaqr leading to the election was 7.5% higher than they got on election day if so reference please.
        Do you disagree that ever election since Labour got to power under Clark their vote dropped dramatically? If so were is your reference?
        Best stick to the facts of the matter your opinion of me has no more interest to me than that of the chickens in my henhouse. I am not here to win a popularity contest, just to put some facts, even if you dont like them on the table.

      • rockape 17.1.2

        Yes I am sure you have been so right (if I can use that word on this blogg) about the last election,and the one before that. It was all about nasty polls and only one poll that counts. How did that work out Mr27.5%

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 17.2

      No answer?

      Didn’t you like the way I rubbed your nose in the Roy Morgan poll? Was my pointing out your tiresome repetition of the lying Prime Minister’s attack lines a bit much?

      If you are offended I apologise :twisted:

      • rockape 17.2.1

        Roy Morgan was reflecting the interest in the Labour party post the sacking of their leader(again). The honeymoon is over lets wait and see!

        • gobsmacked 17.2.1.1

          You didn’t have long to wait.

          Should have waited before mouthing off, eh?

          • rockape 17.2.1.1.1

            I hpope your comment makes sense to you ,it doesnt to me can you explain?
            Oh I see what your at having read later comments. However if you read my remarks you will know I dont rate polls. I was suggesting we wait till election day!
            I did last time and it worked out OK.

    • Lanthanide 18.1

      That poll was published 11 days ago. You have a strange definition of “same day”.

    • karol 18.2

      That’s not the same day. Check the date at the top of the article. It’s over a week old.

    • rockape 18.3

      Mathew I think I agree with you. Polls are fickle! It just takes one stupid comment or incident in the weeks before an election and it all changes. At best they are what SOME voters think at one particular time. Both parties have a problem,and its similar for both. How to get your share of apathetic voters out to the polls. In the UK in Thatchers hayday Conservative voters thought she was a shoe in so didnt vote,Labour voters thought she was a shoe in so they didnt turn up either. The looser,democracy! Its the same in NZ, if it appears too close to call there will be a higher turnout unless both parties have lost the trust of voters. We would both be guessing if we try to predict how many of the 800 000 non voters are fro which party. I suspect a lot are Maori a few ACT and a few NZ first and the rest divided between Nat and Lab. Manna and the Greens are activist driven parties so most of their supporters will turn up.

    • Matthew 18.4

      It worries me that at least three different Matthews have commented today (myself, Hooton, and this one). I guess I need to get a new handle, especially if the other Matthews are a right-wing commentator and someone mistaking an 11 day old poll for today’s.

    • David H 18.5

      The date of publication is usually in the top left area of the screen.

  18. Francis 19

    The Fairfax poll was also the one that showed virtually no change for National following the GCSB bill, the issue which all other polls showed caused National support to drop (it still hasn’t recovered). I wouldn’t put a lot of weight on it.

    On a similar note, we’d be far better off if polls were prohibited for the 2-3 weeks leading up to the election…

  19. Vagabundo 20

    And right on cue, we’ve just had TVNZ’s Colmar-Brunton poll which puts Labour/Green level with National.

      • Vagabundo 20.1.1

        Well, neither of our assessments are inaccurate based on what’s in the C-B poll. Either way, I think we can agree that the Fairfax-Ipsos poll may be a rogue poll, or another example of its history of being somewhat inaccurate. Roy Morgan should have one coming during this week, or at the start of the next. That should give us a better idea of where the Fairfax poll stands in the grander scheme of things.

  20. mickysavage 21

    Latest Colmar Brunton just in.

    Labour steady at 36.

    National slipped two points to 45.

    The Greens climb one point to 13.

    New Zealand First remains steady on 4.

    Act and the Maori Party are stable on 1, while the Conservatives have backed up talk of being a potential coalition partner with a one point gain to 2.

    The Fairfax Ipsos poll looks like an outlier …

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/left-strong-but-labour-flat-in-latest-poll-5662060

  21. gobsmacked 22

    Poor Rockape and co. National set a new record, the shortest recovery in history. It lasted 12 hours!

    https://twitter.com/ColmarBruntonNZ/status/394693676418351104

    Labour/Greens ahead of National. As every other poll has been saying.

    • rockape 22.1

      If you read what I say I dont rate polls do I have to repeat they are only a snapshot.

      • gobsmacked 22.1.1

        But at 3.58 pm today Rockape had a different view …

        Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        Let’s cut the crap. You got over-excited about a single poll that is out of synch with all others. Now you wish you hadn’t.

        Nobody knows what will happen in an election a year from now – obviously. But we do know the trend of public opinion. It’s a rough guide, it’s flawed, it’s not exact- but it IS consistent.

        Consistently bad for National.

        • rockape 22.1.1.1

          No I expect you got carried away with the new messiah for labour, well you tried Mr sensible. the Mr Action man, Now we have a new one Mr Actor Man. The rich harvard graduate(not) pretending to be a working class bloke, Mr 12%And if you want to quote long term trends to me Try election results 2011,2008.2005,2002,1999. See any trend there for Labour . I do and its down every year !

    • rockape 22.2

      Mate to use a cunliffism. Its lasted 5 years!

  22. amirite 23

    Polls schmolls, the Colmar Brunt0n has the Nats at 45%, Labour at 34%, Greens 13%, NZ First 4%,
    Conservative (!) 2%, Maori 1%, act 1%.
    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll

  23. rockape 24

    Great news for Labour, their leader gets 12% after all that publicity of the Leadership election/. they get 34% in the polls and only a third of their supporters want Cunliffe. Whats the odds on Winston going with National,He hates the greens. Labour still out. Do you realy think Winston will play 3rd fiddle in an alliance when he could get second fiddle from National. So many questions. Thats why I hate polls!

    • Tat Loo 24.1

      DNFTT

      • rockape 24.1.1

        DNFTT can you translate, I am more that 18 years old!

        [lprent: Could have fooled me. You act like a simple child. I also see that you haven’t followed my previous advice so I won’t repeat it.

        bye bye idiot.. Nothing you have ever said on this site under any handle has been worth wasting bandwidth on – it is simple trolling. And I’m feeling intolerant today so your IP is now auto-spam.. The only person who looks at it is me ]

        • greywarbler 24.1.1.1

          Counted up rockape – 29 since 3.10 pm to 7.11 p.m. The pseudo seemed to be cropping up a bit so thought I’d do a count. Glad to see DNFTT. Last time he showed up was in August.

  24. Swan 25

    Well these results put to bed any idea of a Cunliffe bounce.

    • Olwyn 25.1

      This is not NZ’s Got Talent, and the idea of a “Cunliffe bounce” means very little. The fact is, Labour under Cunliffe is in the process of re-engaging its supporters, and the things that Labour stands for are starting to get some oxygen. As that sinks in, Labour will gain momentum, which matters far more than bounce.

  25. Matthew 26

    I noticed that tvnz’s reporting is calling a Labour/Green alliance ‘Centre-left’. Good to see that John Key’s rhetoric of communism/far-left parties hasn’t rubbed off.

  26. Disraeli Gladstone 27

    Important point to note about the Colmar Poll is:

    Labour + Green = 47%
    National + Conservative = 47%

    Key has essentially been writing love notes to Craig in the media recently. With a new electorate in Auckland, it seems likely that the Conservatives are going to get a seat. They probably will now have to be factored in.

    Which means that at the moment, we have a statistical dead heat. And we’re all going to have to go and ask Winston who is going to form the next government.

    What is interesting will be when that fact sinks into the political narrative. I’m a social liberal, economic centrist. While a National government isn’t ideal, I can find it palpable. It could be worst.

    The Conservatives as the main junior coalition partner, for instance. That would be sickening. And would probably ensure I’d never vote National in 2014. I wonder if soft National voters feel the same way.

    • Lanthanide 27.1

      Vote Labour, get Greens.

      Vote National, get Conservative.

      • Tat Loo 27.1.1

        Christian Conservative, more like.

      • millsy 27.1.2

        “Vote National, get Conservative.”

        And if you’re gay, strung up with piano wire.

        • chris73 27.1.2.1

          Seriously dude you got some issues

        • felix 27.1.2.2

          Not quite.

          But it’s fair to say that if you’re not white, rich, and living as a straight christian nuclear family you’re going to be more or less entirely excluded from social policy considerations.

          • chris73 27.1.2.2.1

            Bollix

            If Colin Craig gets in he may drag in 3-4 others in with him but thats still a big if but even if does get elected theres still the Maori party, UnitedDunne, whoevers leading Act at the time of the election and possibly WinstonFirst to go through so Colin Craigs influence will be watered down

            Colin is similar to the Greens in that he can only go with National (as the Greens will only go with Labour) and as such doesn’t have to be bribed (unlike Dunne or Winston)

            • felix 27.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope, Craig is like ACT in that he allows the Nats to do a whole lot of horrible right-wing stuff that they want to do anyway but can’t campaign on.

              • chris73

                Economically maybe (Act I mean) but I don’t see National going in for social conservatism especially when you look at John Key with his jewish background, Chris Finlayson and his homosexuality, Judith Collins and her multicultural marriage and while I have no evidence I get the feeling Joyce probably doesn’t care what people get up to in their private lives

                • felix

                  As I said, they can’t campaign on that shit. Beautifully illustrated thank you.

                  • chris73

                    I mean they don’t want to to campaign on that and they won’t be giving Colin Craig a hint to do so either…

                    • felix

                      Give Craig a hint to campaign as a socially conservative bigoted fuckwit? I don’t think you’ve been paying attention.

                      Hardly surprising though, you seem to have failed to pay attention to 70 years of National Party history too.

                      ps did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?

                    • greywarbler

                      felix
                      You are a very patient person and caring to others in need. In this case you are taking chris73 by the hand and leading him or her shambling along the path to enlightenment. A task for Sisyphus I think.

    • David H 27.2

      If Key is writing love notes to Craig then no wonder the Nats are keen to get everything sold this term. Craig is against asset sales, but I do wonder if he would become just the latest in a long line of political Hypocrites, by getting into bed with a man who has literally sold off NZ in a fire sale.

  27. ak 28

    Dear oh dear. The constant benny-bash hasn’t worked, can’t Orewa 2 because they might just need em, so it’s the two most pro-right polls on wait for it……Labour Day! With a mass online troll call-up.

    To no avail again, the poor, sad, sacks. Gazumped by Slippery Bill W. The wee wedgie party heading for a fatal poll lag going into the hols in an election year.

    Watch it Daveo – cornered rats with bottomless wallets and not a scruple between em.

  28. JLLJames 29

    You can’t discount either poll. They are only indicative. Regardless, if you take an average of the two, you can make an argument for the margin of error being eliminated.

    GLHF

  29. millsy 30

    Dont panic Labour.

    Anyway, not like you got much leadership material..

    Grant Robertson and Shane Jones…

    The ALP is going through them, to no avail (Cannot see Shorten as PM material).

    • Murray Olsen 30.1

      Cunliffe and Robertson are both better leadership material than anyone in NAct, and even Sealord Jones is as good as Key.

      • chris73 30.1.1

        Ok now thats pretty funny

      • felix 30.1.2

        Yeah I’d say Jones is about as convincing as Key, i.e. “not at all” to anyone with any nous, and “quite a bit” to morans.

      • greywarbler 30.1.3

        mo
        That’s being hopeful even generous to Jones.. The Jones boy or John boy? Both out of contention, for the vast majority of the public putting the country into wise, safe hands. And WO would get extra oxygen in a breath.

  30. finbar 31

    See todays poll says Labour have not budged since Cunliffe took over,but the Greens have lifted one.Now only a mug would ridicule this as a bad sign.If Labour where ahead by five points the Nats would be seriously considering a early election for fear of Labour and Cunliffs leadership gaining traction.Early days and looking promising.

  31. chris73 32

    “did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?”

    – Nationals a broad church and so has many different views and I seem to recall Su’a William Sio being against the bill as well

    • felix 32.1

      That’s right chris, and I would never use him as an example of a progressive.

      You on the other hand looked for examples of National being progressive (hilarious) and you picked Findlayson to demonstrate that ‘National is so progressive THEY EVEN LET A GAY IN!’

      Unfortunately you’re a moron and you picked a gay man who is so socially conservative that he votes against equal treatment for gay people.

      National is, and always has been, a party of social conservatives and bigots. Check the voting record on any socially progressive bill over the last 77 years, it bears this statement out as utterly uncontroversial and you as either totally naive or a liar.

      You may not think of yourself as conservative, but nonetheless you do support a very conservative party with a very conservative record. And the only reason they don’t openly campaign as such because their views are no longer acceptable to the majority.

      • chris73 32.1.1

        Socially liberal and economically conservative would best describe me

        • felix 32.1.1.1

          Then you’re supporting the wrong party. National MPs almost always vote socially conservative.

        • Tat Loo (CV) 32.1.1.2

          You do realise that is nothing economically “conservative” about hawking off state assets to the highest bidder, turning the lights off at the post office and having corporations come in and run prisons, right?

          I mean, if you keep doing that kind of thing, what exactly is going to be left “conserved” for the next generation to take ownership of?

    • Tangled_up 32.2

      Stop being intellectually dishonest.

      Half the MPs representing National voted against marriage equality and for the continued discrimination of people based on sexuality.

      How the hell can you claim that the National Party stands for equality and non-discrimination (progressive) when it’s loaded with Mps who don’t?

  32. Tracey 33

    Brett

    you show no leadership qualities on this site but I completely accept that you struggle to read.

  33. Crunchtime 34

    The good money is on Labour still… although it’s looking closer than it has in recent weeks.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319

    You’d expect a small amount of right-wing bias even in this – people with money to punt on ipredict tend to be more right-wing by definition.

  34. Sable 35

    I have little faith in polls one way or the other. I would say the average New Zealander would have to be a complete moron not to see the pretty obvious crimes National has committed since slithering into office. Spying on its own citizens, savage censorship, effectively neutering freedom of speech not to mention the sale of state assets and the dismal treatment of the poor and mentally ill to name a few.

    Still the next election will be telling and I suspect it will shape my opinion of what it means to be a New Zealander for better or worse.

  35. Papa Tuanuku 36

    Conservative Party getting interviewed on main TV programmes is anti democratic. They are not an elected party into the parliament, but they get a shitload of free tv time on the basis that they might get in in 2014? Or that they are friends of John Key? I’d really like people on the left to call this for what it is, the powerful and the media deciding who gets in next year, based on their own preferences and prejudices.

  36. lurgee 37

    So it looks like I was right all along, and at this stage in the election cycle it doesn’t matter if the opposition leader is a particularly smelly lump of Gorgonzola, because NOBODY WHO ISN’T TRAGIC LIKE US cares?

    (Regurgitates humble pie)

  37. gobsmacked 38

    Latest Morgan poll … left gains solidified:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5269-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2013-201310300521

    The spin on these polls gets tiresome, so let’s cut to the chase: in 2014 National CANNOT win without Winston, but Labour and the Greens COULD. That’s been clear for a long time, and the evidence consistently supports it, bar one Fairfax joke that not even John Key believes.

    And no, “could” doesn’t mean “will”. Long way to go, every reason for optinism, not complacency.

  38. lurgee 39

    Another poll confirming things are looking up?

    (Re-eats his recently regurgitated humble pie)

    At least it’s still warm!

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  • Welfare system out of date and out of touch
    A new Child Poverty Action Group report released today highlights another example of how our outmoded social welfare system is harming kids, says Labour’s Social Development Spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni.  “The complexities of how a ‘relationship’ is defined in the welfare...
    Labour
  • NZ should formally recognise Palestine
    New Zealand should follow the lead of Sweden, and now recognise Palestine as a separate state On 30 October, Sweden’s new government formally recognised the state of Palestine, only the second Western country to do so, after Iceland. Down here...
    Greens
  • James Shaw’s adjournment speech on behalf of the Green Party
    It is a great honour for me to speak on behalf of the Green Party in this adjournment debate. I thank my colleagues for the privilege. I became a MP only 12 weeks ago, a period of time that seems...
    Greens
  • Time to end legalised cruelty of factory farms
    We can ensure that animals are kept in safe and ethical conditions. Claims of economic impact and practicality as justification for animal cruelty just don't stack up.Use our easy e-letter to write to the Minister for Primary Industries Nathan Guy...
    Greens
  • Government can’t rely on geothermal to grow itself
    While Electricity Authority figures showing geothermal has risen from the fourth to the second highest source of power generation are a promising sign for a geothermal renaissance, there can be no cause for complacency, Labour’s Energy spokesperson Stuart Nash says....
    Labour
  • Big bickies for bosses despite subpar performance
    While public service workers are experiencing Grinch-like wage increases state sector bosses have pocketed early Christmas presents in the form of whopper pay hikes, Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. “Unbelievably State Services Commissioner Iain Rennie got an additional...
    Labour
  • Consent should come before research grants for phosphate mining
      The Government’s decision to make a grant by Callaghan Innovation to Chatham Rock Phosphate is highly questionable, says Labour’s Science spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “The fact is that the company still has to get a marine consent to mine the Chatham...
    Labour
  • A Tale of Two Farms
    Pig farming has yet again been thrust into the public view with two programmes this week on Campbell Live highlighting the very different conditions for pigs on two very different farms. The first programme exposed the awful conditions on a...
    Greens
  • Dirty Dairy Accord failing to clean up rivers
    The first monitoring report of the Sustainable Dairying Water Accord fails to show progress on cleaning up our rivers since the Accord was introduced, the Green Party said today. The Accord's targets for stock exclusion are weaker than the previous...
    Greens
  • The Indignant Kiwi: Why we need to do more to protect our national bird
    A kiwi, about to be released into the wild, was first introduced to Prime Minister John Key and German Chancellor Dr Angela Merkel on her recent visit to New Zealand. By all reports, Dr Merkel was delighted to meet the rather indignant...
    Greens
  • Conflicted interests and health promotion; my opinion.
    As it happens, I know quite a bit about health promotion. It was an area I worked in prior to becoming an MP. What differentiates health promotion from the strict biomedical model, or from health education, for example, is its...
    Greens
  • Transparency on foreign buyers register needed
    News that Overseas Investment Office officials have been working on a register of foreign buyers of New Zealand homes is a welcome surprise, but Land Information Minister Louise Upston now needs to be clear on the details of the project,...
    Labour
  • National moves on state house sell off
    The Labour Party understands the Government has decided to move ahead with a mass sell-off of state houses. Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says he has been told by sources that Cabinet agreed the plan for their sell-off this week....
    Labour
  • Back-down on expert teacher plan welcomed
    News that the Government has backed down and returned to the drawing board on its flagship ‘expert teacher’ policy will come as a welcome Christmas present to schools and teachers, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Teachers throughout New Zealand...
    Labour
  • John Key can’t duck the blame for internet and phone price increases
    Shareholders are winning out over Kiwi households in the latest episode of the long-running fiasco on copper network phone and internet prices, Labour ICT spokesperson Clare Curran said today. “As predicted last week hundreds of thousands of Kiwi households now...
    Labour
  • An astounding disregard for Māori Affairs
    I have sat on the Māori Affairs Select Committee for most of the last 12 years. I love the committee, its work, its constituency and I especially love how it works differently than other committees, with a strong commitment to...
    Greens
  • Plunging dairy payout will hit regions hard
    The plunging dairy payout will hit New Zealand’s provincial towns and farm service industries hard, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Farmers have been bracing themselves for this expected announcement but it will be small towns and those who...
    Labour
  • Reducing inequality creates a stronger economy
    An OECD report finding New Zealand has one of the fast growing rates of income inequality shows “trickle down” economics has failed and that everyone is better off under a stronger economy, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “The Government should...
    Labour
  • Government surplus target turning sour
    The Government’s golden surplus target is under threat with today’s Crown accounts showing the deficit is $260 million worse than expected, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “It is two blows in one morning for the Government’s economic credibility after...
    Labour
  • Greens call for end to cruelty of factory farming
    The Government must end the legalised cruelty of factory farming, the Green Party said today.Footage shown on Campbell Live this week revealed yet again the appalling, but legal, conditions pigs are routinely kept in on factory farms. The conditions the...
    Greens
  • Milk price plunge creates $6b economic black hole
    The plunge in Fonterra’s forecast dairy payout to a seven-year low for farmers will create a $6 billion economic black hole, showing yet again that National’s failure to diversify is hurting the economy, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The...
    Labour
  • Gender Pay Gap: It’s a Matter of Leadership
    The State Services Commission’s annual Human Resource Capability report for the public sector shows the gender pay gap has not decreased since at least 2010. The gap is 14% across all management roles – a slightly bigger gap than for...
    Greens
  • Pardon me Minister, but the cracks are showing
    Cracks are appearing in Cabinet ranks with the Minister of Pacific Peoples, Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga, throwing his predecessor under the bus over a huge spike in spending by advisers, Labour's State Services spokesman Kris Faafoi says. "Spending to 'staff the...
    Labour
  • Confirmation of no confidence in schools plan
    That just 90 of the country’s 2500 schools have signed up to the Government's one-size-fits all performance pay scheme confirms a wide-spread lack of confidence in it, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The scheme, which creates ‘executive’ and ‘lead...
    Labour
  • John Key’s secret foreign buyers register
    John Key has been secretly planning a register for foreign buyers without telling New Zealanders, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Last week Andrew Little called on John Key to adopt the Australian policy on foreign buyers....
    Labour
  • Another kick in the guts for Christchurch
    The government has walked away from the people of Christchurch with Cabinet’s decision today to cut funding available through local Members of Parliament offices to assist people with their earthquake related issues, says Labour’s Earthquake Recovery Spokesperson, Ruth Dyson.  “Over the...
    Labour
  • State house sell off will make transience worse
    The National Government’s plans to sell off state housing will increase the rate of transience among the poorest families, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. The Growing Up in New Zealand study released today reveals families with children under two...
    Labour
  • Report shows need for independent food safety agency
    The inquiry into the botulism botch-up shows the decision to merge the food safety authority into the Ministry of Primary Industries was a failure, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “MPI has been severely criticised in this report for...
    Labour
  • National needs to pull their head out of the sand on climate change
    Green MPs were out across the country attending Heads in the Sand events this weekend. I spoke at the Christchurch event where a couple of hundred people mimicked the Government’s climate policy by burying their heads in the sand. It...
    Greens
  • Claims of pumping up the volume all noise
    New manufacturing figures from Statistics NZ reveal a further decline in New Zealand's export performance, highlighting the Government's ongoing failure to rebalance the economy, Labour's Economic Development spokesperson David Clark says."The National Government has adopted a volume-based approach in an...
    Labour
  • Mediation Between Lyttelton Port and Union Fails
    The Rail and Maritime Union (RMTU) has opted to continue its overtime ban indefinitely after mediation with the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC) failed to progress collective bargaining.   “There was no substantial shift in LPC’s position today so the...
    The Daily Blog
  • Letter from Pakistan
    I was in Peshawar last week. It is a vibrant city with a real energy to it. It is my favourite place to be in Pakistan. You feel the energy as you drive around the city. I am in an...
    The Daily Blog
  • Lyttelton Port workers begin overtime ban
    Media Release: Rail & Maritime Transport Union Lyttelton Port workers begin overtime ban Workers of Christchurch Rail and Lyttelton Port have begun an indefinite ban on overtime, according to the Rail and Maritime Transport Union. The ban was announced at...
    The Daily Blog
  • So the United States of Torture is the ally we are supporting to re-invade ...
    How easy is it to con the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind? Very. The despicable means by which this corrupt dirty politics Government have gone about trying to use the fear and anger caused by the Sydney hostage situation...
    The Daily Blog
  • A tale of two gunmen – how the media spins
    A tale of two gunmen – how the media spins...
    The Daily Blog
  • GUEST BLOG: Jill Ovens – Auckland Hospital worker cuts – Democracy the ...
    Auckland Hospital kitchen workers tell CEO Ailsa Claire (far right) a week ago that they did not want to be contracted out. Such was the arrogance that no contingency plans were made in the event that these workers would be...
    The Daily Blog
  • Political opportunists out in force over Sydney hostage crisis
    It hasn’t taken long for supporters of New Zealand’s so-called “anti-terror” legislation passed last week through parliament to try and justify it in the wake of the Sydney hostage crisis. Before we even knew much about the gunman or hostage...
    The Daily Blog
  • NZs new hobby – hating the poor
    Last week people queued at the doors of the Auckland City Mission. They are people that are living without enough income to afford the basics let alone the extras we as a society have come to expect at Christmas. Extras...
    The Daily Blog
  • The only people who believed National’s surplus illusion were voters
    Sigh – the sleepy hobbits of muddle Nu Zilind are pretty easy to con aren’t they? National’s surplus was always a joke that would never happen, but in every single focus group, voters believed by overwhelming numbers that National were...
    The Daily Blog
  • Key’s crocodile tears over dirty politics
    John Key: Bloggers ‘not big part of my day’ Prime Minister John Key says bloggers are not a “big part of his day” but he lives in a world where he can’t ignore them. Speaking on TVNZ’s Breakfast programme today,...
    The Daily Blog
  • Why we are in inequality denial and climate change denial
        We are a country in denial over our inequality and climate change. Both issues have the same thread that runs through them. 30 years of neoliberalism has generated its own cultural narratives and myths. We have been taught that...
    The Daily Blog
  • This weeks Waatea news column – Why proclaiming Key as the Politician of ...
      This weeks Waatea news column – Why proclaiming Key as the Politician of the Year is ethically bankrupt...
    The Daily Blog
  • Britomart violence raises questions over rail staff safety
    Media Release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union   Britomart violence raises questions over rail staff safety   The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is raising serious questions over the safety of the staff on Auckland’s train network after violent incidents on...
    The Daily Blog
  • Australia stares down Siege – National Party politicise tragedy
    The Sydney siege has finished, from the reports that are breaking the gunman, Man Haron Monis is dead and one of the hostages has also been killed. The Australian Police seem to have acted incredibly professionally and the real Australian...
    The Daily Blog
  • The termination of the Internet Mana alliance
    Last week the Mana Movement and Internet Party wrote to the Electoral Commission to cancel the registration of the Internet-Mana political party. It was a decision which brought the arrangement between the parties to a natural end after failing to...
    The Daily Blog
  • Peace breaks out between Greens and Labour
    Finally some good news for the Left. Peace has broken out between the Greens and Labour. One of the greatest barriers to a real relationship between the Greens and Labour has been the uncompromising arrogance of the Labour Party Caucus...
    The Daily Blog
  • Little keeps it stupid, simple
    Labour MP drops euthanasia billA bill which would legalise voluntary euthanasia has been dropped by Labour MP Iain Lees-Galloway at the request of his leader Andrew Little. Mr Lees-Galloway had been canvassing support for his End of Life Choice Bill...
    The Daily Blog
  • Dear Ministry for Social Development,
    Dear Ministry for Social Development, I realise you probably already know this, but just a wee reminder of REALITY. You know – the reality of the vast majority of us who aren’t making ends meet and are struggling to live...
    The Daily Blog
  • Social Policy still in the dark ages when it comes to relationships
    Two years ago I became aware of the work of two very able barristers who defend low income women accused of relationship fraud. CPAG then began collecting cases and stories of horrendous misery and victimisation. Then penny was slow to...
    The Daily Blog
  • The truth about inequality
      The truth about inequality...
    The Daily Blog
  • Rather Than Sending Troops To Iraq … Brownlee May Wish To Consider Better...
    There’s something a little unsettling going on at the moment. Ok, many somethings. Of particular concern is the fact that right now, New Zealand troops are training at Waiouru for deployment to Iraq – and, assumedly, the ongoing war against ISIS. Brownlee,...
    The Daily Blog
  • West Papua’s Saralana Declaration most vital unity development for 52 yea...
    Newly elected spokesman for the unified West Papuan movement Benny Wenda is treated to a chiefly welcome at the opening ceremony of the “unity” meeting in Port Vila. Photo: © Ben Bohane/wakaphotos.com David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. A...
    The Daily Blog
  • Helen says it all
    Helen says it all...
    The Daily Blog
  • When Fran O’Sullivan, John Armstrong and Cameron Slater are singing Andre...
    The mainstream media of NZ will never allow a Labour leader who threatens the bastions of neoliberalism from ever taking power. David Cunliffe found that out. So when the mainstream media establishment from Fran O’Sullivan to John Armstrong to even...
    The Daily Blog
  • Wisdom’s Mirror: Can Grant Robertson Slay the Neoliberal Gorgon?
    HOW TO ELIMINATE one’s rival without getting one’s hands dirty? It’s a problem with a prodigious political pedigree. King David’s lust for Bathsheba drove him to order Uriah, her unfortunate husband, placed in the front line of battle – where...
    The Daily Blog
  • GUEST BLOG: Miriam Pierard – Sweet Sixteen and able to vote?
    The level of voter participation in elections is an indication of the health of a democracy. Declining turnout across the democratic world, particularly among young people, has led to questions about the legitimacy of our governing institutions. It is time...
    The Daily Blog
  • Public Equity and Progressive Politics
    We heard from the OECD on Wednesday morning (10 Dec) [Focus on Inequality and Growth] that inequality suppresses economic growth. (Here are Radio New Zealand’s morning reports on this.) This is hardly a surprise to many economists and non-economists alike. The key point in...
    The Daily Blog
  • Analysis: Final Across The Ditch Bulletin for 2014 – Lorde Help Us!
    Analysis (Text & Audio): Across The Ditch – Selwyn Manning & Peter Godfrey Headline: Final Across The Ditch Bulletin for 2014 – Lorde Help Us! 5AA’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning.FiveAA’s Peter Godfrey and MIL’s Selwyn Manning present their last...
    The Daily Blog
  • Sharing intelligence with CIA torturers
    New Zealand’s spy agencies have long presented intelligence sharing with their US counterparts as mutually beneficial and benign. That stance has always lacked credibility and is now its impossible to justify. The just-released US Senate Intelligence Committee report shows that...
    The Daily Blog
  • Labour votes for Surveillance State. NZ First Opposes!
    A few weeks before the election, the New Zealand Labour Party decided to cash in on simmering popular discontent with the state of the surveillance state that National’s set up. Never mind their own previous and well-publicized brushes with egregious state-surveillance … they wanted people to know that...
    The Daily Blog
  • Economic ideology destroys us all
    The OECD’s latest report says “The biggest factor for the impact of inequality on growth is the gap between lower income households and the rest of the population. The negative effect is not just for the poorest income decile but...
    The Daily Blog
  • 3 simple words for the Labour Party
    I have 3 very simple words for all those Labour Party apologists who are trying to rinse Labour clean here. Get. A. Warrant. You can all try and spin this any way you want, but Labour voted for 24 hour...
    The Daily Blog
  • 2014 – Year of the angry white knuckle
    I knew Internet/MANA would have to fight National, ACT, Conservative Party, United Future, Maori Party and the mainstream media. I didn’t think they would also have to fight Labour, the Greens and NZ First as well. Apparently feeding hungry kids in...
    The Daily Blog
  • Chris Rock on cop shootings
    Chris Rock on cop shootings...
    The Daily Blog
  • Bank Lending: Restrictions and Favourites
    An important story in 2014 has been the Reserve Bank’s ‘loan-to-value ratio’ restrictions, which have made it extremely hard for first-time house buyers to get sufficient finance to buy a house. Corran Dann in TVNZ’s  Q+A (7 Dec) suggested that...
    The Daily Blog
  • This weeks Waatea news column – How should Waitangi Tribunal ruling on S...
      This weeks Waatea news column - How should  Waitangi Tribunal ruling on Sovereignty be implemented?...
    The Daily Blog
  • Labour sell us out on warrantless surveillance
    Isn’t it depressing that Labour are selling us out by voting for warrantless spying by an agency caught out smearing them? Last night Labour do what they always do, over compensate on Security issues. So terrified are Labour at being...
    The Daily Blog
  • This Is The Headline For Test Post
    This Is The Headline For Test Post Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut eget neque facilisis sapien laoreet volutpat. Nulla vel nisl nec purus interdum tincidunt. Phasellus orci sapien, vestibulum et pulvinar non, pellentesque eget leo. Sed...
    The Daily Blog
  • Question Time in Parliament Today – National Party MPs cheer graph that s...
    This is the graph the National Party were shown by Russel Norman in Parliament today and they all cheered…     …they cheered?!?!?!? That’s beyond denial, that’s just gleefully suicidal....
    The Daily Blog
  • NZ Pastor Prays For Homosexual Author To Kill Himself
    By Jayden Jameson and Jessie Hume If we ever needed a reminder that homophobia is alive and kicking in New Zealand we have Pastor Logan Robertson from the Westcity Baptist Church. The Westcity Baptist ministry could apparently be described as New...
    The Daily Blog
  • Political Journalism in the South-Pacific – a new direction for NZ influe...
    Last week, the incredible Pacific Journalism Review celebrated 20 years of promoting and supporting and standing up for Journalism in the South-Pacific. The conference at AUT featured journalists from around the pacific who have battled and fought and been punished...
    The Daily Blog
  • Antarctica minus the ice – welcome to your future
    Antarctica minus the ice – welcome to your future...
    The Daily Blog
  • REAL LIFE GUEST BLOG: Lou – 15 shifts in 12 months……permanently homel...
    This is Key’s real life – other NZers aren’t so privileged    15 shifts in 12 months……permanently homeless since May. I went to the Salvation Army yesterday on advice for emergency housing as my temporary accomodation had turned volatile. Just...
    The Daily Blog
  • Labour Party Members should be furious at reviews findings
    Let’s see The Standard use this image Well, well, well… Labour’s election review: What went wrongLabour’s review panel has reported its findings back about the party’s election campaign and the reasons for the low 25 per cent result, identifying problems...
    The Daily Blog
  • Judith Collins joins the Sunday Star Times and cements the Rights dominance...
    “I am not a Monster”, hissed Judith Collins   I don’t read the Sunday Star Times, so had no idea that they had just decided to make Judith Collins of all people a new columnist. Her appointment cements into place...
    The Daily Blog
  • Grey Lynn Festival – very Grey – Art in the Dark – very Dark
    The battle of Helm’s Deep from the Two Towers would have had better OSH conditions than Art in the Dark   Grey Lynn Festival – 2 stars So the Grey Lynn Festival happened last weekend. It’s a day where the good liberal...
    The Daily Blog
  • ‘Stalking’ Ede
      Tau Henare accuses TV3 of stalkingA former National MP has accused TV3 of stalking after one of its journalists attempted to question a former Beehive spin doctor. Today’s episode of The Nation featured an unsuccessful attempt to question former...
    The Daily Blog
  • Taxpayer Union, the NZ Herald and Len Brown’s secret hidden love den
    I love the way the NZ Herald introduced the discredited Taxpayer Union in their bullshit story about Len Brown’s secret hidden love den… ‘Secret room’ spending shows need for recall electionsA lobby group says revelations Auckland Council spent $30,000 on...
    The Daily Blog
  • Eric Garner killed by NYPD original footage
    The horror of a ultra militarised and racist American Police Force who can kill with impunity. Obama claims cameras on every office would stop this type of brutality, these cops knew they were being filmed and killed him anyway. In...
    The Daily Blog
  • Unjust to imprison us for crimes we haven’t yet committed
    Once again National and Labour have succumbed to the “law and order” brigade enabling the passage of a Bill imprisoning people for crimes they might commit in the future. The Public Safety (Public Protection Orders) Bill allows the Court to...
    The Daily Blog
  • SPCA welcomes glueboard traps ban
    The Royal New Zealand SPCA applauds the ban on the sale and use ofglueboard traps in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics
  • Mediation Between Lyttelton Port and Union Fails
    The Rail and Maritime Union (RMTU) has opted to continue its overtime ban indefinitely after mediation with the Lyttelton Port of Christchurch (LPC) failed to progress collective bargaining. “There was no substantial shift in LPC’s position today...
    Scoop politics
  • Review into Phillip Smith’s escape submitted to Government
    A multi-agency review on the escape of Phillip Smith to South America has submitted its initial report to the Government today....
    Scoop politics
  • Len Brown gets haybales from giant chicken and Ms. Santa Cla
    Today at 10.30am, Ms. Santa Claus and a giant chicken delivered haybales to Len Brown’s office, urging Auckland City Council to decline a resource consent application sought by cage egg producer Craddock Farms....
    Scoop politics
  • Increased Abuse of Parents A Predicted Outcome
    Family First NZ says that the increasing level of parental abuse , especially towards mothers, is an unfortunate but expected outcome of the rise of children’s ‘rights’ and the undermining of parental authority....
    Scoop politics
  • Brownlee’s Misplaced War on Acronyms
    The beleaguered Minister of Defence who reportedly cannot tell an RFL (required fitness level) from an AWQ (annual weapons qualification) has declared war on military acronyms while proving the proverb about those in glass houses....
    Scoop politics
  • Fluoride risks whitewashed in rushed consultation
    Ministry of Health propose to exempt toxic industrial waste products used in water fluoridation from the Medicines Act 1981...
    Scoop politics
  • Practical Tips on Working and Living in New Zealand
    JUANderful Juan” in 7-Minute Migrante Video Project Shares Practical Tips on Working and Living in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics
  • Christmas Day in Prison
    Christmas Day in prison this year will involve swapping the main meal of the day, so that dinner will be served at lunchtime, leaving the evening meal to be sandwiches. This is standard practice for this day....
    Scoop politics
  • Alcohol advertising bans need stronger evidence
    Wellington (18 December 2014): The New Zealand Initiative’s Head of Research, Dr Eric Crampton, today urged Cabinet to look to the evidence before banning alcohol advertising and sponsorship. The Ministerial Forum on Advertising and Sponsorship...
    Scoop politics
  • EPA grants marine consent to OMV NZ Ltd
    The Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) has granted a marine consent to OMV NZ Ltd to continue its development drilling programme in the Maari oil field in the South Taranaki Bight....
    Scoop politics
  • DHB puts staff and patients at risk in order to save money
    The Public Service Association (PSA) is alarmed that the Waikato District Health Board (WDHB) is proposing to cut the 4 and 2 roster system, established nationally, for mental health nurses. The PSA represents more than 210 mental health nurses working...
    Scoop politics
  • Ambivilence about alcohol marketing recommendations
    Ministers Adams and Dunn issued a media release yesterday nearly two months after receiving a final report from their Ministerial Forum on Alcohol Advertising and Sponsorship, and four years following an original announcement to review alcohol...
    Scoop politics
  • Alcohol forum recommendations: a step in the right direction
    The Forum has stated clearly that that it accepts alcohol marketing plays a role in heavy alcohol consumption and subsequent harm, and that young people need to be protected from it by regulation....
    Scoop politics
  • Court Judgment: Nicky Hager v Police on Dirty Politics Raids
    Mr Hager alleges that steps taken by the second respondent (the Police): first, in deciding to apply for a search warrant in respect of Mr Hager’s premises; secondly, in applying for the warrant; and thirdly, executing the warrant at his...
    Scoop politics
  • Holiday home hazards revealed
    Common sense ways to look after your property this summer Auckland, 18 December 2014 – Burglars aren’t the only threat to your home during the holiday season, says AA Insurance. It’s more likely to be broken water pipes, burst hot...
    Scoop politics
  • Grieving families should be able to scatter ashes in peace
    Grieving families should be able to scatter ashes in peace 18 December 2014 Funeral directors are relieved that Wellington City Council has finally dropped plans to charge families for permits to scatter ashes in public places. Funeral Directors...
    Scoop politics
  • RSA Offers Condolences To Victims Of Sydney Siege
    As an organisation representing over 100,000 New Zealanders, the RSA has today condemned the actions taken by Man Haron Monis during his siege in a Sydney café, and offered their deepest sympathies to the friends and family of Tori Johnson...
    Scoop politics
  • Kiwi activists crowdfund billboard for Simon Bridges
    Almost seven thousand New Zealanders have taken part in a crowdfunding campaign, and have raised enough money to put a billboard up in Tauranga that is directed at Simon Bridges, the Minister of Energy and Resources....
    Scoop politics
  • Leaked TISA text exposes US threat to privacy, data security
    ‘The US is demanding that New Zealand and other countries accept sweeping rules that would override privacy protections for digitised personal and other data’, according to Professor Jane Kelsey from the University of Auckland....
    Scoop politics
  • Lyttelton Port workers begin overtime ban
    Workers of Christchurch Rail and Lyttelton Port have begun an indefinite ban on overtime, according to the Rail and Maritime Transport Union. The ban was announced at a mass meeting at the Port after negotiations between Lyttelton Port of Christchurch...
    Scoop politics
  • Ban on Alcohol Advertising Could Cost Taxpayer
    Responding to yesterday's release of the report of the Ministerial Forum on Alcohol Advertising and Sponsorship, Jordan Williams, the Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union says:...
    Scoop politics
  • Farm safety isn’t helped by punitive fines
    Federated Farmers Health and Safety spokesperson, Katie Milne says she is concerned about the impact of the $40,000 fine for a Marlborough farm couple, who weren’t wearing helmets and carrying children as passengers. The Court case, and subsequent...
    Scoop politics
  • New online guide to NZ’s environment goes live
    The Environment Foundation* has launched a new web-based guide to the management of New Zealand’s natural environment....
    Scoop politics
  • Ban On Alcohol Advertising Just One Step
    Family First NZ says that a proposed ban on alcohol advertising at sports events as recommended by a ministerial forum is an important move, but will not solve the binge drinking and alcohol abuse issue on its own....
    Scoop politics
  • CLANZ scholarship winner to examine legal services to Crown
    Wellington in-house lawyer Tania Warburton is the inaugural winner of the research scholarship established by the Corporate Lawyers Association of New Zealand (CLANZ)....
    Scoop politics
  • Joint Australasian operation dismantles drug syndicate
    The Joint Organised Crime Task Force (JOCTF), leading a multi-agency team, has smashed a multi-million dollar international organised crime network following raids across Melbourne this morning....
    Scoop politics
  • Video: Meet Mark Gilbert, U.S. Ambassador-Designate to NZ
    Join us in welcoming Ambassador-Designate Mark Gilbert and his wife Nancy. They are arriving in New Zealand shortly and wanted to introduce themselves. Watch this video to learn about his connections with Aotearoa, and why he thinks the partnership between...
    Scoop politics
  • MIA Welcomes Review Findings
    The MIA welcomes the findings of the Health Quality & Safety Commission into child and youth mortality arising from the use of motorcycles, quads and other agricultural vehicles....
    Scoop politics
  • Quads Bikes Not for Under 16s
    Safekids Aotearoa strongly supports recommendations made in a report released today highlighting the dangers posed by quad bikes when ridden or controlled by children who are under 16 years of age....
    Scoop politics
  • Inquiry on Parliament’s legislative response to emergencies
    Public submissions are being invited on Regulations Review Committee’s Inquiry into Parliament’s legislative response to future national emergencies. The closing date for submissions is Sunday, 1 March 2015....
    Scoop politics
  • Switch off on the beach NOT at level crossings
    KiwiRail and TrackSAFE NZ have launched a new summer rail safety campaign with a message to motorists to stay focused and always look for trains at level crossings over the holidays. December is known as the month for family, festivity...
    Scoop politics
  • Report on child and youth deaths from vehicle use
    Quad bike and other off-road vehicle accidents second largest cause of child recreational deaths...
    Scoop politics
  • Inspector-General accepts apology for leak of report
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, Cheryl Gwyn, has accepted an unreserved apology from Hon Phil Goff MP for disclosing some of the contents of her recent Report into the Release of Information by the NZSIS in July and August...
    Scoop politics
  • Santa’s naughty list shows NZPork in trouble
    Santa has provided animal advocacy organisation SAFE with an early copy of this year’s naughty list , as it prominently features many animal-abusing industries and businesses, with NZPork topping the list....
    Scoop politics
  • WWI veterans had persisting higher risk of early death
    New research on the impact of the First World War on participating New Zealand soldiers shows they typically lost around eight years of life and had an increased risk of early death in the post-war period....
    Scoop politics
  • Rainbow Wellington urges further change from Blood Service
    This week the New Zealand Blood Service (NZBS) announced the implementation of the agreed changes to blood donor deferral. For men who have sex with men (MSM) this primarily involves a reduction of the deferral period from five years to...
    Scoop politics
  • New Zealand Government signals reversal of fortune
    The Government’s robust $372 million forecast surplus from Budget 2014 will turn into a $572 million deficit, according to the 2015 Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update and the Budget Policy Statement. Imports are cheaper and good export prices...
    Scoop politics
  • Time for Jobs that Count in the Meat Industry
    The NZ Meat Workers Union will launch a new national campaign to highlight job insecurity in the Meat Industry this afternoon in Palmerston North....
    Scoop politics
  • Protest at killing of schoolboys – Vigil 17/12/14
    A peaceful vigil will be held in Downtown Square opposite Britomart station – cnr of Queen and Customs St from 11-45 am: Wednesday 17 December 2014....
    Scoop politics
  • Social housing provider opens development in Johnsonvillle
    Social housing provider, Accessible Properties, will be opening eight new social housing units in a new housing development in Johnsonville tomorrow....
    Scoop politics
  • NCWNZ Wins Court Case
    ComVoices welcomes and celebrates the news that the National Council of Women of New Zealand (NCWNZ) has won its High Court case against Inland Revenue and the Charities Registration Board....
    Scoop politics
  • Cut Taxes + Cut Waste = Surplus
    Responding to the Treasury's Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, says:...
    Scoop politics
  • Cuts in public services likely fromBudget Policy Statement
    The horizon for workers looks gloomy with the release today of the Budget Policy statement. “Continuing real cuts in Government funding of public services are inevitable as a result of today’s Budget Policy Statement. The policy ignores the social,...
    Scoop politics
  • Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2014
    The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2014 provides the Treasury's latest economic forecasts and the forecast financial statements of the Government, including the implications of Government financial decisions....
    Scoop politics
  • Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2014
    The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) 2014 provides the Treasury's latest economic forecasts and the forecast financial statements of the Government, including the implications of Government financial decisions....
    Scoop politics
  • Chief Ombudsman launches major review of OIA practices
    The Chief Ombudsman, Dame Beverley Wakem, has today begun a wide ranging review of Official Information Act (OIA) practices in the public sector....
    Scoop politics
  • The Tasman Sea got a little smaller this morning
    “Our hearts and minds are with the people of Sydney: the Tasman Sea got a little smaller this morning,” said Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy....
    Scoop politics
  • A safety message for the festive season from Housing NZ
    Batteries may be required for some of the best toys under the tree this year, but they are just as essential to enjoying the greatest gift of all, says Housing New Zealand General Manager of Property Services, Marcus Bosch. “Smoke...
    Scoop politics
  • Charity Wins in the High Court
    The National Council of Women of New Zealand (NCWNZ) is delighted that the High Court has found in its favour in its case against Inland Revenue and the Charities Registration Board....
    Scoop politics
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