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The only response needed

Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.

At 6.5% off, that was the least accurate of the bunch.

The drop from that poll to now in the Fairfax is 4.5%. If you translate that to the actual starting point, National’s down to around 43%, which is what the other, competent, polls show.

I doubt the latest Fairfax brainfart will be a “major blow” anyone’s morale.

Updated: The Colmar-Brunton poll on the same day contradicts the shifts and the percentages in the Fairfax poll. It also covers the same 19th-23rd of October time period.

162 comments on “The only response needed”

  1. Michael Vally:

    Dear oh dear oh dear.

    Thats four dears.

    Your like a repug who watches faux news, you only take notice on the polls that have your guys doing well, (which havent been a lot for labour over the years)

    Keep ya head in the sand, big boy.

    BTW, what are the trends saying?

  2. Policy Parrot 2

    I would be interested in Fairfax publishing their methodology for their polling; specifically:

    – Time of the day called,
    – Whether mobiles are called or not,
    – Call-backs if busy or NCA are performed, or such pollee’s are discarded

    The problem really lies with the associated spin, which drives the next news cycle. If such a premise is based on false assumptions, it can become a bit of a self-fulfilling tendency (i.e. if voters think there is no contest, why bother considering an alternative, unless obviously motivated?)

    • Te Reo Putake 2.1

      Sample size? One

      Time of day? Just after the editorial meeting at Granny finishes.

      Mobiles? Not needed, the Herald operator puts us straight through to the editor.

      Call backs? Also not needed; once the editor gives the instructions, we know what numbers to write.

      Edit, first person to spot the obvious mistake wins a chocolate fish. I put it down to typing through tears.

    • Steve 2.2

      Also how often do they Poll? My quick look back over the last year shows Fairfax trend was to poll every 3 months Nov 28th -3 Dec 2012, Feb 10-14 2013,May 19-23 2013,Aug 12-25 2013, Suddenly we have a 2 month poll (Oct 19-23) taken before the latest Asset Sale flop and a week before Labour’s annual conference in Christchurch which makes front page headlines on Labour Day. Interesting

    • Anon 2.3

      As someone who once worked on these polls for Ipsos/Fairfax, I can give a little bit of information on this. In May, the last polling period I have the records for, the times called were:
      Sunday – 19th May (AM) 9:30am-3:00pm
      Sunday – 19th May (PM) 3:00pm- 9:00pm
      Monday – 20th May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Tuesday – 21st May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Wednesday – 22nd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      Thursday – 23rd May 5:00pm-9:00pm
      No mobile phones were called in the time I worked there. Callbacks if someone was busy were regularly undertaken. The work environment was professional and there was no obvious conservative bias (though all of their polls seem to show one, I suspect because of the very nature of landline polling.)

      • Thanks very much for that. I always figured Fairfax’s rightward spin was a result of demographic biases in their methods, rather than outright bias or shoddy work overall, but it’s nice to have it confirmed. The landline bias would certainly contribute.

      • the pigman 2.3.2

        Oh come on Farrar, I know the private polling business is drying up, but Fairfax?! Really…?

    • David H 2.4

      This is all I could find. Random Phone indeed. I would presume that they also only do Landlines.

      http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/fairfax-ipsos-poll-october-2013/

  3. phil 3

    The comments on the Fairfax website were telling. Pro Nat comments were given 5 thumbs up, while the very next (anti) Nat comments received 5 or 6 thumbs down. Clearly indicates the bias of that network. ho hum…

    • Francis 3.1

      Since it hasn’t been posted anywhere on this page, this is where the results (and comments) are located: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9332786/Poll-a-major-blow-to-Labour

      See a lot of comments implying that somehow, National’s policies are moderate while Labour’s are somehow extreme. My bias view would say that it’s the other way around (National are far-right, particularly economically while Labour is somewhere around center-left/left), but I guess they’re probably at around the same level. That would mean the 2014 election will be a clear vote between left- and right-wing policies, rather than the usual ones where there’s not much difference between the two main parties.

      If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

      • Tat Loo (CV) 3.1.1

        If those comments are truly representative (something which I doubt), it shows just how manipulated the general population has been by the propaganda of the Right-wing bias media.

        It probably more represents the demographic who most visit Stuff and NZ Herald online i.e. persons earning >$60K pa.

        What I see in the big lift in the last 2 Roy Morgans is that a lot of New Zealanders are not fooled by the MSM droning on, but were waiting for a clearly defined Opposition alternative to show up.

        • Sir Cullen's Sidekick 3.1.1.1

          Yeah only Roy Morgan poll is reliable as it shows Labour winning.. Good one.

        • miravox 3.1.1.2

          I think they are manipulated by the propaganda of the government regurgitated by the media. It doesn’t help that people born in 70s and onwards haven’t seen a proper left-wing government. I think Clark was proudly centrist.

          When we moved to Austria, we were stunned by how ‘left-wing’ this place is – as have been all our NZ visitors. We have to remind ourselves that this country is under a government that is a grand coalition of the equivalent of NZ’s Labour and National, so is by definition ‘centrist’. (Vienna itself is the equivalent of a Labour-Green coalition).

          National really is far-right, economically, by comparison.

      • Wayne 3.1.2

        You need to get out more if you think NZ is in the grip of a far right government (though at least you admit it is in part your bias).

        • KJT 3.1.2.1

          You are correct Wayne, A bunch of thieving wannabee Fascists, is a better description.

          • Wayne 3.1.2.1.1

            Try telling that to potential voters and see how far you get. Unless of course you think the half of NZer’s are in fact thieving fascists, or deluded pawns.

            • greywarbler 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Maybe they are thieving pawns or deluded fascists. That is up for study and discussion. Good if we can refute it.

            • KJT 3.1.2.1.1.2

              No. The majority of New Zealanders are misled pawns.

              Misled by the highly effective propaganda, and re-writing of history, of the neo-liberal religion.

              Unfortunately not many now are old enough to remember how much better off we were under genuinely socialist Governments. Before our “unfortunate experiment”.

              People like Mike Moore, Don Brash, maybe Rodney Hide and yourself, perhaps, genuinely believe in that religion and have the best of intentions. Like many religious people. Not much difference from the, “happy clappy”, cult followers who try and attract people off the streets.

              The Neo-liberal fascists, like all cult leaders, are happy to use the misled and the “true believers” to advance their socially destructive, but personally lucrative, agenda.

  4. Tat Loo (CV) 4

    As noted in Open Mike, Fairfax are using a different polling company than pre 2011 elections.

  5. Tracey 5

    Do they publish the questions?

    Brett given how easily you dismiss all keys lies your opinion has limitations.

  6. Disraeli Gladstone 6

    At this rate, if all parties and partisans can ignore the polls and write them off without a comment, that would be great. Because I’m getting tired of the staggering level of ignorance on statistics from 8 out of 10 people.

  7. Tracey 7

    Brett. Read the honest man thread and tell me which lies you accept amongst those listed.

    • Tracey:

      I was born to lead, not to read.

      • fender 7.1.1

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

      • fender 7.1.2

        That explains everything, exposure to lead has done the damage…

        • greywarbler 7.1.2.1

          fender
          Brave New World, Brett and humour, what a joke. Keep up the quips, we should put down the whips now he reveals his value – a sense of humour no less. He led, and you finished in great form fender.
          I was born to lead, not to read.- Brett Dale

          (I looked up Google for interest and it has this for another Brett Dale I think, in the USA. ‘Mr. Dale is a partner with the Firm, who represents highly compensated individuals and closely held businesses in various industries.’ Don’t you love ‘the Firm’, and the euphemism ‘highly compensated’ for well paid or getting smashing salaries. And compensated for what – putting in their precious time working rather than doing other more enjoyable things. I understand there are a lot of people in the USA looking for ‘compensation’)

          • fender 7.1.2.1.1

            Now I’ve messed up the thread with the same comment going into spam folder, I’m not one for quitting and just kept going :oops:

            [lprent: chopped out two. ]

            • greywarbler 7.1.2.1.1.1

              fender
              I see what you mean. The one at 10.29 with the link was the subtlest. But the Lord loves a trier they say. That sort of dedication is what we will need in the next year.
              That’s presuming we don’t have a copy cat ‘Bananarama’-style Pacific election.

  8. woodpecker 8

    I remember Tracy Watkins running a 2/3 front page in the Waikato Tiimes around mid November 2011 banging on about the 54% for nats. Interestingly about the same time as the nat hordings all around Hamilton got a new yellow sticker saying something like “Your vote is critical”.

    • Thomas 8.1

      Voters don’t like the idea of one party governing alone. That’s why we adopted MMP. If a poll puts one party over 50%, it scares voters off. Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable and they would rather the outcome be narrower.

      If you want to sabotage National through biased polls, bias them *towards* National and scare off voters.

      • woodpecker 8.1.1

        “Supporters may just not vote because they think victory is inevitable”. The way I read that is, National polling suggested a somewhat smaller percentage than what Tracy was writing, hence the stickers. At the same time telling left voters not to bother.
        As far as your MMP “and they would rather the outcome be narrower” part. Let me just say, personally, even if I thought it was 100% certain for a left win, I will still be taking my teenagers and anyone else I can find to the polling station.

        • Thomas 8.1.1.1

          I would also vote regardless of how certain the outcome is. However, you and I are not representative of the general population. A quarter of kiwis didn’t vote in 2011.

          In both 2011 and 2002 we saw one party polling above 50% shortly before the election. But on election day we saw record-setting low turnouts and those parties needing support partners.

          Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single-party governments. Polls have shown that. That’s why we have only had coalition governments since 1996 and why Germany (which also uses MMP) has only had coalitions since 1949. Heck, that’s why we introduced MMP in the first place.

          I think National saw the risk of people staying home and that’s why they put up the “your vote is crucial” stickers.

          • woodpecker 8.1.1.1.1

            ” Voters definitely prefer coalitions to single party governments” Your linked poll says 54.1% yes to 39.0% no.
            There’s that magic 54% again.
            Cup of tea anyone? Anybody at all?
            But I am interested if the stickers popped up in other parts of the country.

      • Fisiani 8.1.2

        You seem Thomas to forget that support over 50% is not impossible given how well the National government has turned the economy from recession into growth. Record employment figures and rising wages and steadily closing the gap with Australian wages. A surge of Kiwis returning home and virtually every province booming and growing the economy even more. probable growth now 3.5%. Another 400 days of further improvement and 50% is quite unreasonable. 60% is a more realistic target. National has clearly won the heart and mind of the centre just in time for the summer barbeque season. Labour and the Greens are merely fighting for their share of the dyed in the wool socialists. When socialists despair of Labour they shift to the Greens. When they think that Labour has a chance then they shift away from the Greens. The Labour/Green bloc is stagnant. It is idiotic to think that National polling over 50% will engender complacency, the Centre is far too focused on victory to be complacent. Far more likely it will mean that not even the offer of free KFC will get the socialist vote out.
        Now if Labour had a leader like Shane Jones then it would all change, He is however loathed by the Left. I fear that Robertson is playing the long game and wishes Cunliffe to take the blame for ignominy in November 2014 and be ushered in as the leader for 2017. He will again be lazy and probably have the distinction of being the only Labour candidate to deliver party vote third place for two elections in a row.

        • Naturesong 8.1.2.1

          This.

          Despite the fact that the current govt has literally run the country into the ground;
          – record debt and deficits which will take a generation to pay back
          – turned a military spying institution which shares its data with the US on its own citizens
          – whose vision for the future is the destruction of NZ’s environment and along with it the tourism industry and the value add our food exporters are able to charge.
          – NZ taxpayer subsidies to overseas corporations
          – has stood idly by while manufacturers and exporters (along with their local supply chains) have gone to the wall
          – constant demonization of nz citizens whose only crime was to lose their job when their employers either went out of business, cut jobs to prevent going out of business, or cynically cut jobs because with the labour market as it currently is you can offer workers the choice of leaving or working extra unpaid hours to fill the gap.
          – driven down wages and increased precarious work by legislating against the right to be treated fairly in the workplace.
          – Sold off critical public utilities for next to nothing
          – missmanaged the Chch rebuild – to my mind, likely to be the biggest missed opportunity of this govt.
          – Its not been in the news yet, but there has been significant damage to the health system
          The malfeasance and incompetance of the current govt simply staggers the mind.

          BUT, over the coming year you will see the talking points displayed in the comment above repeated in blogs, radio, television and newspaper again and again. New Zealand will be flooded with these lies.
          It wont make the talking points any less false, but it will be accepted by many many people.

          The one thing this government is truly outstanding at, is propaganda.

        • David H 8.1.2.2

          Fisiani
          You should write comedy… Well you gave me a laugh.

        • KJT 8.1.2.3

          Forgetting of course, Fizzer that most of the growth is because of an earthquake and a wholly fortuitous rise in dairy prices.

          Not to mention the discreet pre-election pump priming of the economy which usually results in an interest rate and borrowing hemorrhage safely away from election year.

          And that we weathered the recession so well because of Labours saving, instead of National’s huge election bribe, tax cuts, for Hawaii holidays, and Keating’s regulation of the Aussie banks. Both policies which National would have reversed had they been in power.

  9. Thomas 9

    All the polls had National above 49% in the weeks leading up to the 2011 election. Fairfax’s poll was the worst performer at 54%. But that was performed by Research International; Fairfax have changed to Ipsos, whose record is unclear.

    I think voters just didn’t want one party governing alone. So on election day National’s support softened The same thing happened in 2002, when Labour’s 50% support softened on election day. Voters like coalitions. If anything, having the polls predicting National governing alone hurts National.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    At the end of the day, polls are imperfect. The quoted margin of error is 3.1%. (And that’s just a 95% confidence interval. i.e. at least 5% chance that the error is more than that. )

    I wouldn’t read too much into any poll; a 2% shift is not statistically significant. It’s noise.

    I dislike the fact that both sides of the political spectrum attack polls as being biased. The fact is that even a perfectly unbiased poll has error. It’s mathematically unavoidable.

  10. Armchair Critic 10

    The wrongest of the polls gets it wrong again, and that’s news? Yeah right. It’s almost like there’s a hidden agenda…

  11. chris73 11

    Translation:

    Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good, any poll showing National going up = bad

    I’d suggest all people on the left ignore this poll and instead accept that Labour/Greens have won the next election and so shouldn’t bother doing anything until the election results come in :)

    • miravox 11.1

      “Any poll that shows Labour/Greens going up = good”

      Good news then, the poll did show Labour going up. Sometime you need to read more than the headline. Along with National, in a margin of error kinda way

      At worst the poll is neutral – taken after Key was getting his photo ops, Hooten and co questioning Cunliffe’s CV and NAct tossing in some policy in an attempt to shore up it’s social concern credentials. None of these will last

      I don’t see a problem with that poll, except it’s probably a bit blue, as history shows.

  12. Tracey 12

    Chris73

    I object to all polls and the oxygen they waste which cld otherwise be used for policy and issue elucidation

  13. gobsmacked 13

    It’s worth repeating:

    Every single poll in 2011 said National would govern alone. Yes, EVERY published poll, not one single exception. Feel free to check.

    But then the voters turned up on election day, undermining democracy with their actual votes. Silly voters.

  14. rockape 14

    Yes Gobsmacked good of you to remember that the voters turned up on election day and gave National their vote and Labour their lowest poll in years.

  15. rockape 15

    It may be an inconvenient truth but in all the arguments about National getting less on election day than the polls predicted you seem to forget the Labour vote. A year out from the election 2011 national averaged 51% and got 47% on election day. Labour were polling 35% and got 27.5% on election day. A drop of 7.5%

    • chris73 15.1

      Who’d have thought that voters on the left tend to be more lazy then voters on the right

    • gobsmacked 15.2

      So? You think that’s a clever argument, because “RedBorg say Labour good National bad”. Not everyone is so monolithic as you and your t/roll team. Labour”s result was crap, so what? National still could not govern alone, and were dealt a mess that affects them every day in Parliament, and in the public perception.

      But thanks for reinforcing my point about the polls.

  16. rockape 16

    Just take election results . How did Labour do over 9 years, not so good! National may drop a little but compared to Labour and the Clark years they are doing surprisingly well. Labour no longer talk or even dream about a Labour Government. The best they can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first, that wouldnt be a government it would be a circus!
    When talking of polls remember they are a snapshot in time,they change! Thats why National dropped post Tea party and Labour dropped post Cuncliffe backstabbing Goeff and the where is the money farce.Both those incidences dropped their respective parties vote in the last few weeks of the election campaigne to the advantage of the Greens and NZ first.

    • gobsmacked 16.1

      Rockape, if you want a grown-up discussion about polls and predictive quality (though I suspect you really don’t), then let’s have one:

      Do you believe National will govern alone after the next election? If so, why (given the evidence cited)? If not, then who with?

      You say:

      The best Labour can hope for is a cobbled together alliance of Green ,Mana ,NZ first

      But if you believe in polls’ accuracy, as you claim, then clearly that’s false. Labour plus Greens have had the numbers in all recent polls bar the Fairfax one.

      • rockape 16.1.1

        You asked for beliefs not facts. I believe that the economy and thereby jobs will grow over the next year. I believe that the health service stats and Law and order stats will continue to improve. I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National. I believe it will be Nationals turn to offfer a few smarties to the voters. The end result will be National polling enough to win the next election with an overall majority.
        You see what you dont realize is that the Greens are an albatross around the neck of Labour. That will make sure voters stay away from that dangerous alliance.

        PS why do you always feel trying to degrade those who disagree with you makes your point stronger. It doesnt it just makes you look childish.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.1.1

          Your personal opinion, eh, which by an amazing coincidence makes you sound like nothing more than a tiresome parrot reciting John Key’s mendacious bullshit.

          You people are transparent.

          We need better wingnuts.

        • Chris 16.1.1.2

          hello rocky, still dragging those knuckles I see…

        • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3

          “I believe the problems in Christchurch will turn into a plus for National.”

          Yeah right. If you didn’t notice, Lianne won by rather a landslide. I think the only way things would go well for National in CHCH is if they either massively change their current hands-off approach (remember they have this 50% payout offer to red-zoners in the courts right now) or if Lianne massively screws up. However Lianne won’t screw up because she is very competent, whereas National don’t look like they’re about to change direction either.

          So that’s a bit of a pipe dream.

          • rockape 16.1.1.3.1

            You watch lianne, A poletician I have a lot of time for, she will soon be sucking up to National a bit like Mayor Len Brown!

            • Lanthanide 16.1.1.3.1.1

              Er, what’s your point?

              Local government have to suck up to National government when it comes to things that they can’t afford to fund themselves, with CHCH being the obvious posterchild for needing government funds.

      • rockape 16.1.2

        Of course you are right re recent polls. Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1.2.1

          Roy Morgan. Choke on it.

        • gobsmacked 16.1.2.2

          the cry is where is Cunliffe

          And this is why you get mocked.

          Repeating headlines from Sla-ter’s blog doesn’t earn you respect. It suggests you can’t think for yourself.

          There is no such cry from the people. They have lives.

          • rockape 16.1.2.2.1

            Look up the dictionary there is a difference between mocking and just insults. Its the latter that shows how shallow you are.

  17. rockape 17

    Once again when Labour supporters have no answer we see them back to the old abuse policy. Well if thats your best shot at debate you should maybe try a more adult attitude. Me ,I gave that sort of debate up when I was about 5 years old!

    • lprent 17.1

      Ah yes, you don’t handle criticism well. That is obvious. Certainly you don’t engage your brain enough to read and understand it. All of these these characteristics are obvious above.

      You must have stopped listening when you were about 5 years old and failed to let your mother finish your social education.

      I guess that is why you are still playing with your willy in public. Something that is also evident here.

      Just another whining wanker of the wight screaming about abuse because they can’t handle robust debate after stating assertions of their opinion as being “fact”. Oh well, fuckwits like you are useful for drowning out the few intelligent right wingers

      • rockape 17.1.1

        See your level is the same standard as some of your commentators why play the man not the ball. Try and keep your credibility up with some response to what i have commented on. Do you disagree that Labours polling on the average of polls in the yeaqr leading to the election was 7.5% higher than they got on election day if so reference please.
        Do you disagree that ever election since Labour got to power under Clark their vote dropped dramatically? If so were is your reference?
        Best stick to the facts of the matter your opinion of me has no more interest to me than that of the chickens in my henhouse. I am not here to win a popularity contest, just to put some facts, even if you dont like them on the table.

      • rockape 17.1.2

        Yes I am sure you have been so right (if I can use that word on this blogg) about the last election,and the one before that. It was all about nasty polls and only one poll that counts. How did that work out Mr27.5%

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 17.2

      No answer?

      Didn’t you like the way I rubbed your nose in the Roy Morgan poll? Was my pointing out your tiresome repetition of the lying Prime Minister’s attack lines a bit much?

      If you are offended I apologise :twisted:

      • rockape 17.2.1

        Roy Morgan was reflecting the interest in the Labour party post the sacking of their leader(again). The honeymoon is over lets wait and see!

        • gobsmacked 17.2.1.1

          You didn’t have long to wait.

          Should have waited before mouthing off, eh?

          • rockape 17.2.1.1.1

            I hpope your comment makes sense to you ,it doesnt to me can you explain?
            Oh I see what your at having read later comments. However if you read my remarks you will know I dont rate polls. I was suggesting we wait till election day!
            I did last time and it worked out OK.

    • Lanthanide 18.1

      That poll was published 11 days ago. You have a strange definition of “same day”.

    • karol 18.2

      That’s not the same day. Check the date at the top of the article. It’s over a week old.

    • rockape 18.3

      Mathew I think I agree with you. Polls are fickle! It just takes one stupid comment or incident in the weeks before an election and it all changes. At best they are what SOME voters think at one particular time. Both parties have a problem,and its similar for both. How to get your share of apathetic voters out to the polls. In the UK in Thatchers hayday Conservative voters thought she was a shoe in so didnt vote,Labour voters thought she was a shoe in so they didnt turn up either. The looser,democracy! Its the same in NZ, if it appears too close to call there will be a higher turnout unless both parties have lost the trust of voters. We would both be guessing if we try to predict how many of the 800 000 non voters are fro which party. I suspect a lot are Maori a few ACT and a few NZ first and the rest divided between Nat and Lab. Manna and the Greens are activist driven parties so most of their supporters will turn up.

    • Matthew 18.4

      It worries me that at least three different Matthews have commented today (myself, Hooton, and this one). I guess I need to get a new handle, especially if the other Matthews are a right-wing commentator and someone mistaking an 11 day old poll for today’s.

    • David H 18.5

      The date of publication is usually in the top left area of the screen.

  18. Francis 19

    The Fairfax poll was also the one that showed virtually no change for National following the GCSB bill, the issue which all other polls showed caused National support to drop (it still hasn’t recovered). I wouldn’t put a lot of weight on it.

    On a similar note, we’d be far better off if polls were prohibited for the 2-3 weeks leading up to the election…

  19. Vagabundo 20

    And right on cue, we’ve just had TVNZ’s Colmar-Brunton poll which puts Labour/Green level with National.

      • Vagabundo 20.1.1

        Well, neither of our assessments are inaccurate based on what’s in the C-B poll. Either way, I think we can agree that the Fairfax-Ipsos poll may be a rogue poll, or another example of its history of being somewhat inaccurate. Roy Morgan should have one coming during this week, or at the start of the next. That should give us a better idea of where the Fairfax poll stands in the grander scheme of things.

  20. mickysavage 21

    Latest Colmar Brunton just in.

    Labour steady at 36.

    National slipped two points to 45.

    The Greens climb one point to 13.

    New Zealand First remains steady on 4.

    Act and the Maori Party are stable on 1, while the Conservatives have backed up talk of being a potential coalition partner with a one point gain to 2.

    The Fairfax Ipsos poll looks like an outlier …

    http://tvnz.co.nz/politics-news/left-strong-but-labour-flat-in-latest-poll-5662060

  21. gobsmacked 22

    Poor Rockape and co. National set a new record, the shortest recovery in history. It lasted 12 hours!

    https://twitter.com/ColmarBruntonNZ/status/394693676418351104

    Labour/Greens ahead of National. As every other poll has been saying.

    • rockape 22.1

      If you read what I say I dont rate polls do I have to repeat they are only a snapshot.

      • gobsmacked 22.1.1

        But at 3.58 pm today Rockape had a different view …

        Post the month of publicity Labour got a boost in the polls. The media were full of Labour,the TV was running the Labour side show,they had profile. Now the honeymoon is over, the cry is where is Cunliffe and the polls are back to normal.

        Let’s cut the crap. You got over-excited about a single poll that is out of synch with all others. Now you wish you hadn’t.

        Nobody knows what will happen in an election a year from now – obviously. But we do know the trend of public opinion. It’s a rough guide, it’s flawed, it’s not exact- but it IS consistent.

        Consistently bad for National.

        • rockape 22.1.1.1

          No I expect you got carried away with the new messiah for labour, well you tried Mr sensible. the Mr Action man, Now we have a new one Mr Actor Man. The rich harvard graduate(not) pretending to be a working class bloke, Mr 12%And if you want to quote long term trends to me Try election results 2011,2008.2005,2002,1999. See any trend there for Labour . I do and its down every year !

    • rockape 22.2

      Mate to use a cunliffism. Its lasted 5 years!

  22. amirite 23

    Polls schmolls, the Colmar Brunt0n has the Nats at 45%, Labour at 34%, Greens 13%, NZ First 4%,
    Conservative (!) 2%, Maori 1%, act 1%.
    http://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/index.php/polls-and-surveys/political-polls/one-news-colmar-brunton-poll

  23. rockape 24

    Great news for Labour, their leader gets 12% after all that publicity of the Leadership election/. they get 34% in the polls and only a third of their supporters want Cunliffe. Whats the odds on Winston going with National,He hates the greens. Labour still out. Do you realy think Winston will play 3rd fiddle in an alliance when he could get second fiddle from National. So many questions. Thats why I hate polls!

    • Tat Loo 24.1

      DNFTT

      • rockape 24.1.1

        DNFTT can you translate, I am more that 18 years old!

        [lprent: Could have fooled me. You act like a simple child. I also see that you haven't followed my previous advice so I won't repeat it.

        bye bye idiot.. Nothing you have ever said on this site under any handle has been worth wasting bandwidth on - it is simple trolling. And I'm feeling intolerant today so your IP is now auto-spam.. The only person who looks at it is me ]

        • greywarbler 24.1.1.1

          Counted up rockape – 29 since 3.10 pm to 7.11 p.m. The pseudo seemed to be cropping up a bit so thought I’d do a count. Glad to see DNFTT. Last time he showed up was in August.

  24. Swan 25

    Well these results put to bed any idea of a Cunliffe bounce.

    • Olwyn 25.1

      This is not NZ’s Got Talent, and the idea of a “Cunliffe bounce” means very little. The fact is, Labour under Cunliffe is in the process of re-engaging its supporters, and the things that Labour stands for are starting to get some oxygen. As that sinks in, Labour will gain momentum, which matters far more than bounce.

  25. Matthew 26

    I noticed that tvnz’s reporting is calling a Labour/Green alliance ‘Centre-left’. Good to see that John Key’s rhetoric of communism/far-left parties hasn’t rubbed off.

  26. Disraeli Gladstone 27

    Important point to note about the Colmar Poll is:

    Labour + Green = 47%
    National + Conservative = 47%

    Key has essentially been writing love notes to Craig in the media recently. With a new electorate in Auckland, it seems likely that the Conservatives are going to get a seat. They probably will now have to be factored in.

    Which means that at the moment, we have a statistical dead heat. And we’re all going to have to go and ask Winston who is going to form the next government.

    What is interesting will be when that fact sinks into the political narrative. I’m a social liberal, economic centrist. While a National government isn’t ideal, I can find it palpable. It could be worst.

    The Conservatives as the main junior coalition partner, for instance. That would be sickening. And would probably ensure I’d never vote National in 2014. I wonder if soft National voters feel the same way.

    • Lanthanide 27.1

      Vote Labour, get Greens.

      Vote National, get Conservative.

      • Tat Loo 27.1.1

        Christian Conservative, more like.

      • millsy 27.1.2

        “Vote National, get Conservative.”

        And if you’re gay, strung up with piano wire.

        • chris73 27.1.2.1

          Seriously dude you got some issues

        • felix 27.1.2.2

          Not quite.

          But it’s fair to say that if you’re not white, rich, and living as a straight christian nuclear family you’re going to be more or less entirely excluded from social policy considerations.

          • chris73 27.1.2.2.1

            Bollix

            If Colin Craig gets in he may drag in 3-4 others in with him but thats still a big if but even if does get elected theres still the Maori party, UnitedDunne, whoevers leading Act at the time of the election and possibly WinstonFirst to go through so Colin Craigs influence will be watered down

            Colin is similar to the Greens in that he can only go with National (as the Greens will only go with Labour) and as such doesn’t have to be bribed (unlike Dunne or Winston)

            • felix 27.1.2.2.1.1

              Nope, Craig is like ACT in that he allows the Nats to do a whole lot of horrible right-wing stuff that they want to do anyway but can’t campaign on.

              • chris73

                Economically maybe (Act I mean) but I don’t see National going in for social conservatism especially when you look at John Key with his jewish background, Chris Finlayson and his homosexuality, Judith Collins and her multicultural marriage and while I have no evidence I get the feeling Joyce probably doesn’t care what people get up to in their private lives

                • felix

                  As I said, they can’t campaign on that shit. Beautifully illustrated thank you.

                  • chris73

                    I mean they don’t want to to campaign on that and they won’t be giving Colin Craig a hint to do so either…

                    • felix

                      Give Craig a hint to campaign as a socially conservative bigoted fuckwit? I don’t think you’ve been paying attention.

                      Hardly surprising though, you seem to have failed to pay attention to 70 years of National Party history too.

                      ps did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?

                    • greywarbler

                      felix
                      You are a very patient person and caring to others in need. In this case you are taking chris73 by the hand and leading him or her shambling along the path to enlightenment. A task for Sisyphus I think.

    • David H 27.2

      If Key is writing love notes to Craig then no wonder the Nats are keen to get everything sold this term. Craig is against asset sales, but I do wonder if he would become just the latest in a long line of political Hypocrites, by getting into bed with a man who has literally sold off NZ in a fire sale.

  27. ak 28

    Dear oh dear. The constant benny-bash hasn’t worked, can’t Orewa 2 because they might just need em, so it’s the two most pro-right polls on wait for it……Labour Day! With a mass online troll call-up.

    To no avail again, the poor, sad, sacks. Gazumped by Slippery Bill W. The wee wedgie party heading for a fatal poll lag going into the hols in an election year.

    Watch it Daveo – cornered rats with bottomless wallets and not a scruple between em.

  28. JLLJames 29

    You can’t discount either poll. They are only indicative. Regardless, if you take an average of the two, you can make an argument for the margin of error being eliminated.

    GLHF

  29. millsy 30

    Dont panic Labour.

    Anyway, not like you got much leadership material..

    Grant Robertson and Shane Jones…

    The ALP is going through them, to no avail (Cannot see Shorten as PM material).

    • Murray Olsen 30.1

      Cunliffe and Robertson are both better leadership material than anyone in NAct, and even Sealord Jones is as good as Key.

      • chris73 30.1.1

        Ok now thats pretty funny

      • felix 30.1.2

        Yeah I’d say Jones is about as convincing as Key, i.e. “not at all” to anyone with any nous, and “quite a bit” to morans.

      • greywarbler 30.1.3

        mo
        That’s being hopeful even generous to Jones.. The Jones boy or John boy? Both out of contention, for the vast majority of the public putting the country into wise, safe hands. And WO would get extra oxygen in a breath.

  30. finbar 31

    See todays poll says Labour have not budged since Cunliffe took over,but the Greens have lifted one.Now only a mug would ridicule this as a bad sign.If Labour where ahead by five points the Nats would be seriously considering a early election for fear of Labour and Cunliffs leadership gaining traction.Early days and looking promising.

  31. chris73 32

    “did it occur to you that you were on shaky ground when your best example of the Nats’ progressive attitude to social policy is a man who voted against marriage equality?”

    – Nationals a broad church and so has many different views and I seem to recall Su’a William Sio being against the bill as well

    • felix 32.1

      That’s right chris, and I would never use him as an example of a progressive.

      You on the other hand looked for examples of National being progressive (hilarious) and you picked Findlayson to demonstrate that ‘National is so progressive THEY EVEN LET A GAY IN!’

      Unfortunately you’re a moron and you picked a gay man who is so socially conservative that he votes against equal treatment for gay people.

      National is, and always has been, a party of social conservatives and bigots. Check the voting record on any socially progressive bill over the last 77 years, it bears this statement out as utterly uncontroversial and you as either totally naive or a liar.

      You may not think of yourself as conservative, but nonetheless you do support a very conservative party with a very conservative record. And the only reason they don’t openly campaign as such because their views are no longer acceptable to the majority.

      • chris73 32.1.1

        Socially liberal and economically conservative would best describe me

        • felix 32.1.1.1

          Then you’re supporting the wrong party. National MPs almost always vote socially conservative.

        • Tat Loo (CV) 32.1.1.2

          You do realise that is nothing economically “conservative” about hawking off state assets to the highest bidder, turning the lights off at the post office and having corporations come in and run prisons, right?

          I mean, if you keep doing that kind of thing, what exactly is going to be left “conserved” for the next generation to take ownership of?

    • Tangled_up 32.2

      Stop being intellectually dishonest.

      Half the MPs representing National voted against marriage equality and for the continued discrimination of people based on sexuality.

      How the hell can you claim that the National Party stands for equality and non-discrimination (progressive) when it’s loaded with Mps who don’t?

  32. Tracey 33

    Brett

    you show no leadership qualities on this site but I completely accept that you struggle to read.

  33. Crunchtime 34

    The good money is on Labour still… although it’s looking closer than it has in recent weeks.

    https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319

    You’d expect a small amount of right-wing bias even in this – people with money to punt on ipredict tend to be more right-wing by definition.

  34. Sable 35

    I have little faith in polls one way or the other. I would say the average New Zealander would have to be a complete moron not to see the pretty obvious crimes National has committed since slithering into office. Spying on its own citizens, savage censorship, effectively neutering freedom of speech not to mention the sale of state assets and the dismal treatment of the poor and mentally ill to name a few.

    Still the next election will be telling and I suspect it will shape my opinion of what it means to be a New Zealander for better or worse.

  35. Papa Tuanuku 36

    Conservative Party getting interviewed on main TV programmes is anti democratic. They are not an elected party into the parliament, but they get a shitload of free tv time on the basis that they might get in in 2014? Or that they are friends of John Key? I’d really like people on the left to call this for what it is, the powerful and the media deciding who gets in next year, based on their own preferences and prejudices.

  36. lurgee 37

    So it looks like I was right all along, and at this stage in the election cycle it doesn’t matter if the opposition leader is a particularly smelly lump of Gorgonzola, because NOBODY WHO ISN’T TRAGIC LIKE US cares?

    (Regurgitates humble pie)

  37. gobsmacked 38

    Latest Morgan poll … left gains solidified:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5269-new-zealand-voting-intention-october-2013-201310300521

    The spin on these polls gets tiresome, so let’s cut to the chase: in 2014 National CANNOT win without Winston, but Labour and the Greens COULD. That’s been clear for a long time, and the evidence consistently supports it, bar one Fairfax joke that not even John Key believes.

    And no, “could” doesn’t mean “will”. Long way to go, every reason for optinism, not complacency.

  38. lurgee 39

    Another poll confirming things are looking up?

    (Re-eats his recently regurgitated humble pie)

    At least it’s still warm!

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  • MPI still dragging the chain over causes of food bug
    The Ministry of Primary Industries’ release of Environmental Science and Research’s initial reports regarding the sources of a nasty stomach bug will be little comfort to the 127 people affected by it, Labour’s Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “This...
    Labour | 16-10
  • Treasury officials should try working without food
    The Green Party is challenging Treasury officials to work for a week without eating properly, in light of their advice to Government that a food in schools programme is not needed."Treasury's advice was that providing food for children in schools...
    Greens | 15-10
  • Councils need to better protect our drinking water
    Environment Canterbury (ECan) is proposing several variations to its regional land and water plan that will allow for increased nutrient and other pollution from irrigation and intensive agriculture on the Canterbury Plains. Commissioners are hearing submissions on Variation 1 to...
    Greens | 15-10
  • National needs to commit to making NZ workers safe
    The National Government must do more to help make New Zealand workplaces a safer place to work in, Green Party industrial relations spokesperson Denise Roche said today.Data released by Statistics New Zealand today showed that workers in the fishing and...
    Greens | 15-10
  • Key commits to deployment before consultation or analysis
    John Key’s offer to consult Opposition parties on whether to deploy New Zealand forces against ISIS looks increasingly like a PR exercise only, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson, Phil Goff. “The presence of New Zealand’s Chief of Defence Force at a...
    Labour | 15-10
  • National must end ideological opposition to raising income
    If John Key is serious about tackling child poverty he must approach it with an open mind, and overcome his ideological block to raising incomes as a solution, the Green Party said today.Papers released to Radio New Zealand today show...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Pentagon links climate change and terrorism
    Yesterday the Pentagon launched a plan to deal with a threat that “poses immediate risks to national security”; one that “will affect the Department of Defense’s ability to defend the nation”. It wasn’t referring to Ebola or ISIS. It was...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Four Nominees for Labour’s Leadership
    As at 5pm today four valid nominations had been received for the position of Labour Leader, as follows: Andrew Little(nominated by Poto Williams and Iain Lees-Galloway) Nanaia Mahuta(nominated by Louisa Wall and Su’a William Sio) David Parker(nominated by Damien O’Connor...
    Labour | 14-10
  • Green Party calls for consultation over terrorism law changes
    The Green Party has today written to the Prime Minister asking him to engage in wider consultation prior to changing any laws as a result of the recently announced terrorism law reviews, said the Green Party today. In a letter...
    Greens | 14-10
  • MPI must name product and supermarket chain
    The Ministry of Primary Industries must name the product responsible for severe gastroenteritis affecting people around the country, and the supermarket chain distributing it, Labour’s Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “The Ministry seems to be more concerned about protecting...
    Labour | 13-10
  • John Key dishonest about reasons for wanting to change terrorism law
    John Key is misleading the public to push through terrorism law changes under urgency, the Green Party said today. On Sunday, John Key stated that it is not illegal for someone to fight overseas for a terrorist group, such as...
    Greens | 12-10
  • Law changes shaping up to be worse than first thought
    The Prime Minister needs to be up front about exactly what changes he is planning to make to the Employment Relations  Amendment Bill, Labour's spokesperson on Labour Issues Andrew Little says.Interviewed on Q&A yesterday John Key said he did not...
    Labour | 12-10
  • Rapists, not Tinder, the threat to women
    Blame for rape and sexual assault should only ever be laid at the door of the perpetrator, not dating services or the actions of women themselves, Labour’s Associate Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. “Tinder is not the problem and women...
    Labour | 09-10
  • Safer Journeys For People Who Cycle
    You have a rare opportunity to tell the people who are making the decisions on cycling how to make it better. The Cycling Safety Panel is seeking feedback on their draft recommendations for improving the safety of cycling in New...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Subsidising more pollution will undermine water clean-up plan at Te Waihora...
    In 2010, NIWA found Canterbury’s Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere had the worst nutrient status of 140 lakes around New Zealand that it measured. In 2011, the National Government committed to spending $15 million across the country through the Fresh Start for...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Adding value not herbicides
    The HT swedes, and other brassicas, might seem like a good idea to farmers struggling against weeds but like the GE road, is this the path we want our agriculture to be treading? The Federated Farmers President, Dr William Rolleston...
    Greens | 07-10
  • ‘Blame the Planner’ bizarre approach to child poverty
    The National Government is stooping to a bizarre new low in blaming "planning processes" for poverty and inequality, after spending six years doing nothing about either the housing market or child poverty, the Green Party said today. Finance Minister Bill...
    Greens | 07-10
  • Media Advisory
    MANA Leader, Hone Harawira will not be available to speak with media today regarding his release “Recount Just One Step To restoring Credibility”. He is however available for media comment tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th of October, all media arrangements are...
    Mana | 07-10
  • RECOUNT JUST ONE STEP TO RESTORING CREDIBILITY
    “I have applied for a judicial recount of the votes in the Tai Tokerau election because it is one step in trying to restore credibility to the electoral process in the north, and, I suspect, in all other Maori electorates...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA SEEKS TAI TOKERAU RECOUNT
    The MANA Movement is supporting Leader Hone Harawira’s application for a judicial re-count in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate for the 2014 general election. President Lisa McNab says there are a number of serious issues of concern regarding the ability...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA to fight mass privatisation of state housing
    Announcements over the past 12 hours from the Minister responsible for Housing New Zealand, Bill English, and Minister for Social Housing, Paula Bennett, make clear the government’s intention for the mass privatisation of state housing. This comes during the middle...
    Mana | 07-10
  • Journalists have right to protect sources
    Legal authorities must respect the right of journalist Nicky Hager to protect the source of his material for his Dirty Politics book under Section 68 of the Evidence Act, Acting Labour Leader David Parker says. “It is crucial in an...
    Labour | 06-10
  • It shouldn’t take the Army to house the homeless
    National’s move to speed up its state house sell-off shows it is bankrupt of new ideas, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “National has been in office for six years, yet the housing crisis has got worse every month and...
    Labour | 06-10
  • Government must lift social housing supply, not shuffle the deck chairs
    National's decision to shift the state provision of housing to third parties is a smokescreen for the Government decreasing the provision of affordable housing, the Green Party said today."What National should be doing is increasing the supply of both social...
    Greens | 06-10
  • Election 2014 – the final count
    While we have to wait for the final booth level counts we can now see how well we did in the specials and look at electorate level data. First off special votes (and disallowed/recounted votes etc). There was a change...
    Greens | 06-10
  • We need more houses, not Ministers
    The Government’s decision to have three housing Ministers will create a dog’s breakfast of the portfolio and doesn’t bode well for fixing the country’s housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New Zealanders need more houses, not more Ministers....
    Labour | 05-10
  • MANA’S CHALLENGE TO THE 51st PARLIAMENT
    Ten years ago I led 50,000 Maori on the historic FORESHORE AND SEABED MARCH from Te Rerenga Wairua to the very steps of this parliament, in a march against the greatest land grab in the history of this country –...
    Mana | 03-10
  • Is this really necessary?
    No one denies chief executives should be well paid for their skills and experience, but it is the efforts of all employees which contribute to company profits, Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker says. “Salaries paid to chief executives come at...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Lyttelton Port workers also deserve pay rises
    Hard slog by Lyttelton Port workers contributed to strong financial growth for the company and they deserve to be rewarded for their work as much as its chief executive, says Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker. “Lyttelton Port chief executive Peter...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Māori Party must seek guarantees on Māori seats
    Labour is calling on the Māori Party to ensure protection of the Māori seats is part of its coalition deal with National which is being considering this weekend, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “For the third consecutive term,...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Donaghys job losses another blow to Dunedin
    The loss of 30 jobs from Donaghys rope and twine factory is yet another blow to the people and economy of Dunedin, says Dunedin South Labour MP Clare Curran. “Donaghys was founded in 1876; the company has survived two world...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Dairy price fall shows urgent need to diversify
    The overnight drop in milk prices shows New Zealand’s overreliance on the dairy industry puts our economy in a vulnerable position, says Acting Labour Leader David Parker. “Dairy prices fell 7.3 per cent overnight and have almost halved since February....
    Labour | 02-10
  • Tasks aplenty for new Health Minister
    One of the first jobs for the new Minister of Health must be to provide an honest and transparent report into surgery waiting times and exactly how many Kiwis are not having their health needs met, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette...
    Labour | 02-10
  • OIA protocols and official advice ignored to hide Child Poverty
    It might not seem so now, but child poverty was a major election issue. What a pity we did not have the full debate. In that debate it would have been very helpful to have seen the Ministry of Social...
    The Daily Blog | 20-10
  • Previewing the 4 candidates for Leader of the Labour Party
    The extraordinary outbursts by Shearer last week highlights just how toxic that Caucus is. Shearer was on every major media platform as the ABC attack dog tearing into Cunliffe in the hope of diminishing Cunliffe’s support of Little by tearing...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – the sudden explosion of ‘left’ blogs
    Time to Teach or more people will suffer from P.A.I.D. Political And Intellectual Dysmorphia.I was on the Twitter and a guy followed me so of course I did the polite thing and followed him back. He wrote a blog so...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Ego vs Eco
    Ego vs Eco...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • We can’t let the Roastbuster case slip away
    Those of us (like me) left with hope that the police would aggressively follow through on the large amount of evidence on offer to them (let’s not forget they forgot they even had some at one point) in the Roastbusters...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Food, shelter and medicine instead of bombs and bullets
    The on-going conflict across the Middle East – due in large part to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – has created another humanitarian crisis of biblical proportion. The essentials of life are desperately needed in Iraq and Syria...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • The politics of electorate accommodations
    National’s electorate accommodations with ACT and United Future were a big factor in it winning re-election. Interestingly, there is another electorate accommodation scenario whereby the centre-left could have come out on top, even with the same distribution of party votes....
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Why you should join the TPPA Action on 8 November
    On 8 November 2014, thousands of Kiwis will take part in the International Day of Action to protest the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). The rally cry for us is TPPA – Corporate Trap, Kiwis Fight Back. Why should you join...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG – Patrick O’Dea: no new coal mines
    Green Party and Mana Party policy is “NO NEW COAL MINES!” Auckland Coal Action is trying to put this policy into action on the ground. ACA after a hard fought two year campaign waged alongside local residents and Iwi, in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Comparing Police action – Hager raid vs Roast Buster case
    This satire had the NZ Police contact TDB and threaten us with 6months in prison for using their logo.   The plight of Nicky Hager and the draconian Police actions against him has generated over  $53 000 in donations so...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Malala Yousafzai, White Saviour Complexes and Local Resistance
    Last week, Malala Yousafzai was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since her exposure to the worldwide spotlight, her spirit, wisdom and strength have touched the hearts of people everywhere. However, there have been cynics who have argued that...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Jason Ede is back – but no media can interview him?
    Well, well, well. Jason Ede, the main figure connected to John Key’s office and the Dirty Politics black ops is back with a company with deep ties to the National Party. One thing you can say about the right –...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Leadership Transitions In Other Parties: A ...
    As cannot have escaped anyone’s attention by now, the country is presently in the grips of an election and campaign that will help determine the fate of the nation for years to come. It’s gripping stuff – with clear divides...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • SkyCity worker says she faces losing her house
    SkyCity worker Carolyn Alpine told the company annual shareholder’s meeting today that she faced the prospect of losing her house because the company had cut her shifts from two a week to one without consultation. The solo mother, has worked...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • Greg O’Connor’s latest push to arm cops & 5 reasons not to
    I was wondering at what point within a 3rd term of National that Police Cheerleader Greg O’Connor would start trying to demand cops be armed. O’Connor must have thought to himself, ‘if bloody Key can get us and the GCSB vast new...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • You can’t have crisis without ISIS
    So the new scary bogeyman ISIS might have chemical weapons that the US secretly found in Iraq, but America didn’t want to expose this find because the WMDs were actually built and made by the US and Europe, the two powers...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • NZ WINS UN SPIN THE BOTTLE! Privately sucking up to America for a decade me...
    Oh, we are loved! Little old NZ, the 53rd state of America after Israel and Australia, gets to sit at the adults table for the special dinner party that is the UN Security Council. How delightful, a decade of privately...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • MEDIA BLOG – Myles Thomas – A World Without Advertising
    Non-commercial broadcasting and media. It’s a solution for all manner of problems ailing our tender nation… voter engagement, unaccountable governance, apathy, stupefaction, public education, science in schools, arts appreciation, cultural cringe… But no-one could’ve guessed that non-commercial media might solve...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October
    March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • Whack a mole as US govt foreign policy
    Whack-A-Mole was a popular arcade game from my youth.  It consisted of a waist high cabinet with holes in the top. Plastic moles seemingly randomly pop out of these holes. The purpose of the game was to hit as many...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • In Paean of Debt
    This week is ‘Money Week’. It’s an opportunity to promote to the middle classes, and anyone else who will listen, the virtues of wise ‘investment’. The aims are to promote the mystical (and indeed mythical) virtues of saving for the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • The last 48 hours – Poverty denial, war denial and unapologetic abuse of ...
    The bewildering speed of events that simply end in Key shrugging and proclaiming he doesn’t really give a shit is coming think and fast as the Government suddenly appreciate the full spectrum dominance they now enjoy. Here is Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Mana 2.0 Rebooted
    Internationally the news is that Evo Morales of Bolivia won big with Left Wing policies But what are the chances that the Left will make a resurgence in this country? As the internecine struggles between the Left and the Right...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Blomfield IPCA letter – Has Dirty Politics leaked into the NZ Police ...
    It’s difficult to know what to make of the IPCA letter to Matthew Blomfield over Slater’s continued insistence that the hard drive taken from Matthew wasn’t stolen.  Slater has selectively cherry picked the Police referring back to his claim that Blomfeild perjured...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • ​Media release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union – Auckland move for K...
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is questioning a KiwiRail proposal to progressively relocate its Zero Harm personnel from Wellington to Auckland. “The purpose of the Zero Harm team is to drive KiwiRail’s performance in health and safety.  Rail is a...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Amnesty International – Friend request from an IS militant
    There’s always that one person, that one Facebook friend, usually a musician or event promoter, who, when you so foolishly accept their friend request, will completely inundate your news feed with copious event invitations and promotions. The person who, despite...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • NZ should follow the UK and recognize the Palestinian state
    Over the past two weeks, the United Kingdom and Sweden have made headlines through their decisions to recognize the state of Palestine. They are hardly the first nations to do so. Indeed, 134 countries have, in various ways, given formal...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Discordant Chimes of Freedom: Why Labour has yet to be forgiven.
    WHY DOES THE ELECTORATE routinely punish Labour and the Greens for their alleged “political correctness” but not National? It just doesn’t seem fair. Consider, for example, the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007 – the so-called “anti-smacking legislation” –...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Hosking or Henry – Which right wing crypto fascist clown do you want to w...
    So Mediaworks are finally going to make some actual money from their eye watering contract with Paul Henry by launching a new multi-platform Breakfast show over TV, Radio and internet. This is great news for Campbell Live who have dodged...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Families need more money to reduce child poverty
    Prime Minister John Key is mistaken to rule out extending the In Work Tax Credit to all poor children (The Nation 11th Oct) and Child Poverty Action Group challenges government advisors to come up with a more cost effective way...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Don’t shit on my dream
    Once were dreamers. A large man, walks down the road and, even from 200 yards there’s light showing between his big arms and bigger body. It’s as if he’s put tennis balls under his arms. Two parking wardens walk out...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Labour and ‘special interests’
    The media narrative of Labour is that it is unpopular because it’s controlled by ‘special interests’. This ‘special interests’ garbage is code for gays, Maoris, wimin and unionists. We should show that argument the contempt it deserves. The next Labour...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Ru...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Tahi) . National’s housing development project: ‘Gateway’ to confusion . Perhaps nothing better illustrates National’s lack of a coherent housing programme than the ‘circus’ that is...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Here’s what WINZ are patronisingly saying to people on welfare when they ...
    Yesterday, a case manager from WINZ called to tell me that I needed to “imagine what I would do if I did not have welfare”. I replied “Well, I guess if I couldn’t live at home, I would be homeless.”...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • David Shearer’s ‘no feminist chicks’ mentality highlights all that is...
    Mr Nasty pays a visit Shearer’s extraordinary outburst last night on NZs favourite redneck TV, The Paul Henry Show, is a reminder of all that is wrong within the Labour Caucus right now… He said the current calls for a female or...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0
    Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – A Tale Of Two Cities
    Sunday was surreal. I went for a drive and ended up in a different country. It wasn’t intentional but those days of too many literally intertextual references seldom are. There is no doubt that the Sunday drive this week had...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Key raises terror threat level to justify war in Iraq and now the SIS need ...
    Have we learned nothing from rushing into war? It’s embarrassing Key has raised our terror threat from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ so he can justify military action in Iraq. Watching him pimp for an American war is as sick as...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Socialism? in France; Austerity in Europe
    On Sunday I stumbled upon this recent New York Times column The Fall of France by Paul Krugman. Then I caught BBC’s Newsnight interview with France’s ‘Socialist’ Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Krugman notes that the Socialists came to power on an anti-austerity mandate, but completely squandered their opportunity...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • So Snowden and Greenwald were right – again – NZ Embassies spying for A...
    Well, well, well. What do we have here… NZ embassies involved in covert intelligence work for US – reportsNew Zealand’s embassies have been involved in covert intelligence gathering work on behalf of the United States, a fresh batch of classified...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Why David Parker *isn’t* a credible choic...
    The one electoral contest this year that a Labour leader is sure to win heated up over the weekend with the late entry of Finance Spokesman (and interim caretaker leader) David Parker into Labour’s leadership race. I’d blogged late last...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Fran O’Sullivan’s extraordinary column
    Note how the carefully constructed flow chart above ignores the mainstream media’s complicity with Slater and Dirty Politics    I am no fan of Fran O’Sullivan’s politics and would argue long into the day against her on many of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Final salute to Cunliffe
    Final salute to Cunliffe...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • David Cunliffe’s statement
    I am today announcing that I have decided not to nominate for the 2014 Labour Party leadership contest. It has been a hard decision to make but it is one that I believe is in the best interests of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Cunliffe to quit leadership race – the losers are the Labour Party member...
    That’s all folks   And so ends the first ever Labour Party member/affiliates choice for leadership. David Cunliffe is standing down at 2pm and is supporting Andrew Little instead. What a perverse turn of events. Cunliffe was punished by an angry Labour leadership forced...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Want to see new Nu Zilind? Read the comments section of Andrea Vance’s co...
    Andrea Vance is no stooge. She is one of the few mainstream media voices who has challenged power and authority, her latest column on the outrageous attempts by Key to use fear mongering to  spook the sleepy hobbits into war...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Humanity calling Government – anyone with empathy home?
    On Friday night groups of Invercargill activists and plain ole people who care took part in the 14 Hours Homeless event – sleeping out in the balmy southern climate on cardboard and couches at our Salvation Army Citadel. It’s a...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Labour, leadership and White blokes
    David Shearer said on TV3’s The Nation this weekend that he appreciated the support Labour’s received from Maori and Pacific communities over the last few elections, but that it was important to again, secure the votes of ordinary white blokes...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Wrong priorities in media coverage of Ebola crisis
    The experts have told us that there is very little likelihood of a serious Ebola outbreak in any Western nation – unless the virus changes so that it can be spread through the air rather than just via bodily fluids....
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • John Key uses the same old warmongering recipe
    Less than three weeks after the election Prime Minister John Key wants New Zealand to join a war in the Middle East and extend the powers of our US-focused spy agencies the SIS (Security Intelligence Service) and the GCSB (Government...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Speech from the Throne brings welcome focus on children
    Today’s speech from the Throne confirms the Government’s focus on children, youth and their families in the areas of health, education, youth employment, poverty alleviation and Whānau Ora; now the challenge is to ensure every child in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • John’s Job Fairs no fix for unemployment and poverty
    “John Key has clearly been looking to the US for his latest bright idea on dealing with employment issues,” says Auckland Action Against Poverty coordinator Sue Bradford. “Job fairs where the desperately unemployed queue in their corporate best to compete...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech From the Throne Foreshadows More Corporate Welfare
    Responding to the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne, which outlined that the Government’s intentions for the next Parliamentary term would include further Business Growth Agenda initiatives, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Green MP to speak at panel on Rainbow Mental Health
    Hamilton, New Zealand: Recently re-elected Green Party MP Jan Logie will be a guest speaker at a panel on the mental health of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Trangender, Takataapui and Intersex people taking place on November 1st as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Evidence Supports GE Moratorium
    Federated Farmers spokesman Graham Smith's call for a 'rethink' on release of GeneticallyEngineered organisms is misguided, and instead it is time for a formal moratorium on GMOs in the environment.(1)...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Chatham Rise mining could have impact on whales and dolphins
    Wellington, 21 October 2014--Mining phosphate on the Chatham Rise, off the east coast of New Zealand’s south island, could potentially have many impacts on marine mammals like whales and dolphins, the Environmental Protection Agency was told today....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Council endorses Nanaia Mahuta as the next Labour leader
    Te Kaunihera Māori, the Māori Council of the New Zealand Labour Party, have passed a resolution to endorse the Hon Nanaia Mahuta as the next leader of the Labour Party...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Kaumatua to organise petition to end Maori seats
    Ngapuhi kaumatua David Rankin has announced that he will be organising a nationwide petition to seek support from Maori voters to end the Maori seats. “These seats are patronising”, he says. “They imply we need a special status, and that...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Announcing a New Voice for The Left
    Josh Forman is pleased to announce the creation of a new force on the Left of politics in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Public services held back by poor workplace culture
    A new report by Victoria University’s Centre for Labour, Employment and Work shows that public servants are working significant unpaid overtime to ensure the public services New Zealanders value are able to continue....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
    Andrew Little’s probability of being the next leader of the Labour Party has reached 70% and Jacinda Ardern is favourite to become his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Prison Drug Treatment Unit marks a milestone
    Christchurch Men’s Prison’s Drug Treatment Unit (DTU) celebrated the completion of its 50th six month Drug and Alcohol Programme today, with the graduation of a further twelve offenders....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Security Council seat a chance for NZ to empower women
    The UN Women National Committee Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Women NCANZ) welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use its position to proactively promote effective implementation of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Waipareira and ACC sign Partnership
    Waipareira and The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding at Whanau Centre, Henderson – marking a special day for the West Auckland Urban Maori organisation....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Humanitarian aid desperately needed in Iraq and Syria
    Global Peace and Justice Auckland is calling on the government to provide humanitarian funding for non-aligned NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Middle East rather than give any support whatever for the US-led military campaign in the area....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Court Judicial Decision: Dotcom v The USA: 17 October 2014
    The United States of America is seeking the extradition of Messrs Dotcom, Batato, Ortmann and Van Der Kolk. The matter has been before the Courts on numerous occasions, and no further recitation of the facts is needed....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Marshall Island poet speaks at UN climate summit
    “The fossil fuel industry is the biggest threat to our very existence as Pacific Islanders. We stand to lose our homes, our communities and our culture. But we are fighting back. This coming Friday thirty Pacific Climate Warriors, joined by...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Many tourist car accidents preventable
    Simple steps could dramatically reduce the number of accidents involving tourists, says the car review website dogandlemon.com ....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • RainbowYOUTH: 25 Years, 25 More
    In 1989, a group of young people in Auckland got together to form a support group for LGBTIQ youth. They called it Auckland Lesbian And Gay Youth (ALGY). After 25 years, several location changes, a name change, a brand reboot...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Outdated Oath shows need for Kiwi Head of State
    MPs are sworn in today and New Zealand Republic has written to MPs asking them to talk about why 121 New Zealanders elected by the people of New Zealand and standing in the New Zealand Parliament swear allegiance to another...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Council shouldn’t revenue grab from windfall valuations
    Auckland Council should state clearly they will not try and capture revenue as a result of the latest valuations and needs reminding that the City’s skyrocketing property values doesn’t change the level or cost of Council’s services, says...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • EPMU endorses Andrew Little for Labour leadership
    The National Executive of the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union unanimously endorsed Andrew Little for the role of Labour leader, at a meeting held yesterday. “I have been speaking to our workplace delegates at forums across the country over...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • World Food Day promotes Agroecology not GE technology
    The UN has stated that agroecology is a major solution to feeding the world and caring for the earth....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Labour Names Review Team
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    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Contenders for Labour leadership debate for first time
    The contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party debated for the first time on TV One’s Q+A programme today....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • UN Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme
    New Zealand's United Nations Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme....
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully
    Murray McCully says New Zealanders can expect a 5-10 year engagement against Islamic State if we join military action in Iraq and the government will take that “very carefully into account”...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard says there is “sufficient evidence” to fight Islamic State and does not think it will increase the risk of a domestic attack...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • NZ businesses to make child abuse a priority conversation
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    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Tribunal decision significant for SMEs
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    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • On The Nation this weekend
    This weekend on The Nation… New Zealand has been elected to the United Nations Security Council, but what happens next? Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully from New York about our goals for reform, what America wants from us...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • 1000+ supported by Te Arawa Whanau Ora
    Over 1000 individual whānau members are leading happier, healthier, more successful lives as a result of eight passionate and committed Māori organisations working at the coalface to help whānau find success....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Nomination for Board Members Now Open
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Anglican Family Care Otago staff to take industrial action
    Social workers, family workers and support staff working for Anglican Family Care in Dunedin and South Otago will take industrial action after their employer refused a pay increase that would keep up with the rising cost of living....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Use UN Security Council role to overcome inaction and injust
    Amnesty International welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the UN Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use the role to ensure the body lives up to its role of safeguarding global peace and security....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Grisham’s ‘child porn’ comments ignorant
    World-renowned author John Grisham has come under fire by advocacy group Stop Demand Foundation, for comments it says trivialises the global child sex abuse trade....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Latest leak of TPPA intellectual property text confirms risk
    On the eve of the latest (non)round of negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) yet another version of the intellectual property has found its way to Wikileaks ....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • New Zealand awarded UN Security Council seat
    International aid agency Oxfam New Zealand welcomes New Zealand’s election to the United Nations Security Council, saying it gives an extraordinary opportunity to make a lasting contribution to international peace and security and improve the lives...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • 40 more jobs lost to cheap imports
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs
    Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs 29 roles are to be cut at the Christchurch manufacturing facility of Tasman Insulation, the company which manufacturers the iconic Pink Batts brand of products. The company is proposing to consolidate its...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Kellogg cereal donations help the Sallies feed those in need
    Kellogg New Zealand commits 64,000 serves of breakfast cereal during World Food Day Coinciding with World Food Day this year, Kellogg New Zealand and The Salvation Army are reaching out to less fortunate Kiwis with the donation of 64,000 serves...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • National Slips, Labour Hits Lows
    National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZ parents hope for more than just happy and healthy babies
    Auckland, 16 October 2014 – What do expectant mums and dads hope for their children? According to new research from Growing Up in New Zealand , a baby’s health and happiness may be high up on the list, but today’s...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZPI backs Minister’s affordable housing stance
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    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Prime Minister’s OIA Admision Disturbing
    The Taxpayers’ Union is calling for answers after it was revealed on Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report that the Prime Minister’s office routinely flouts its obligations under the Official Information Act. Taxpayers’ Union spokesman, Ben...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZDIA forum press release
    NZDIA forum press release Wellington - The New Zealand Defence Industry Association, with the support of the NZ Defence Force and the Ministry of Defence, will be holding a two-day international forum on October 21-22 at the Michael Fowler Centre...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • BPW NZ calls fashion industry to account
    The New Zealand Federation of Business and Professional Women (BPW NZ) joins the call for action on the use of skinny models and mannequins as it is directly affecting the self-esteem and health of many of our young people....
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Electoral Commission introduces Extra Touch for Blind NZers
    The Electoral Commission was presented with the Extra Touch Award by the Association of Blind Citizens of New Zealand (Blind Citizens NZ), in recognition of its successful implementation of Telephone Dictation Voting ahead of its commitment to do so by...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
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