Written By: - Date published: 12:22 pm, December 23rd, 2008 - 42 comments
Categories: economy, national/act government -
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OK, one last graph for the year.
The latest GDP data isn’t pretty, a 0.4% contraction of the economy in the September quarter. It’s the third quarter of contraction in a row driven by the drought, oil prices, and the credit crunch. The ongoing international financial turmoil means we are likely to continue in recession well into next year. Still waiting on that plan to turn things round. Guess the Nats are too busy approving the killing of more endangered sea lions.
Now, I know the thread off this is going to be one long blame game. So, here’s something to ponder – GDP per capita from 1987 to now.
Gives some perspective. While the economy is contracting it has been pretty shallow, especially compared to the 90s recessions. We’re still better off on average than in 2006.
But remember, too, that it’s not just the size of the pie, it’s how it is cut up. As we’ve seen, workers get a smaller slice under National’s anti-worker policies.
With a continuing recession, rising unemployment, and an anti-worker government attacking wages, she’s looking like a tough year ahead for ordinary Kiwis.
Not sure that John Key giving himself a hundred dollar a week tax cut is going to help much, either.
[for a fuller explanation of the graph to the left, see this post. Bascially, circle is the size of the economy in 1991, 2000, and 2008, and the red sector is the portion of GDP going to workers]
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Scoopit!
Merry Xmas to the lefties……eat crap to the righties!!!!
Dear John,
Dont come back from Hawaii!!!!
Gerry B
Who ate all the pies who ate all the pies…you fat bastard you fat bastard..Merry xmas!
Janet, I think mark got bitten by a yellowjacket and his mind has been poisoned. Peak oil isn’t deniable, even by ideological fools. It’s happening. Period. But these right wingers think the market is the only reality.
speaking of act supporters, hey madeline, jesus was a trade unionist. I thought you would know that.
“workers” are going to need any trade union that can help them in this developing recession; else when they are in danger of losing their jobs they are totally screwed. The employers won’t care about their rights unless they are made to.
The known oil reserves (as measured in years of consumption at the time of the measurement) actually increased over the 20th century.
Well of course. Discoveries of new reserves continue to accumulate, but at a rate less than consumption.
There is a long hisory of predictions that we will run out of oil since the early 20th century even.
Complete and utter strawman…no-one has predicted that we will run out of oil anytime soon. Even the most pessimistic estimates of total recoverable oil suggest that we have so far consumed slightly less than half. Plenty of oil remains.
The real problem is that the half we have consumed was the low hanging high quality fruit that was easy to find and produce. The oil and gas left in the ground is becoming increasingly expensive to extract because it is either remote, in deep water, or lies as you say in complex, awkward structures that are difficult to drill from.
Almost no-one drills a shallow hole, on dry land that gushes significant oil these days. Almost all big field rely on complex pumping, horizontal drilling and injection techniques. As you must know.
The estimates of undiscovered oil (obviously rough) range from 60 to 500 years and that is allowing for an annual increase in oil use of 5% p.a.
Cite please? Because if this is true even your minimum of 60 years of growth at 5% is (60 ^ 1.05 = 73.63) which would imply that in 60 years time oil production would have to be running at (85m barrels per day * 73 = 6.3 billion barrels per day)… or around about 2-3 times the total amount of oil currently known. (The numbers for 500 years of growth at 5% are totally insane, I won’t even go there.) Obviously this is not evenly remotely plausible, so I assume you must mean something else.
speaking of act supporters, hey madeline, jesus was a trade unionist. I thought you would know that.
And the one of the great moments in the New Testament was the day on which Jesus tossed the money lenders out of the temple.
Correction:
or around about 2-3 times the total amount of oil currently known.
Should be: “would use up the total amount of oil currently known in 2-3 years.”
Optimistically.
Merry Christmas to you all. (Even Kerry)
Dean: I was describing the group who were mislead ino ving for National. I didn’t make any attempt to describe anyone else or whether or not they were also mislead. Don’t fill in the blanks with your own ill-founded assumptions. They appear to be flawed.