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The red tide rising

Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2013 - 40 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags:

Here’s a graph of all the Roy Morgan polls going back to the 2008 election. National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.
LabGreen v Nats in Roy Morgans Oct 2013

40 comments on “The red tide rising”

  1. Rogue Trooper 1

    Red October

  2. Lanthanide 2

    This graph makes it pretty clear that the last poll that had National in front, at 51% to Labour’s 29% on Jully 15-28, was a massive outlier. Although I do recall that the contemporaneous polls by other media outfits showed broadly similar levels of support.

    That was also effectively the poll that did Shearer in. Interesting.

  3. Philgwellington Wellington 3

    Xox
    Thanks for the info. The key question is ‘will key make it to the next election?’ Will he desert the ship?

  4. Philgwellington Wellington 4

    Xox
    Thanks for the info. The key question is ‘will key make it to the next election?’ Will he desert the ship?

  5. Wayne 5

    MMP is a bit more than Labour/Green v National.

    There are other parties to factor in. From left to right they are Mana, Maori Party, NZF, UF and ACT. I put Maori Party to the left of NZF, but of course there are personalities to factor in. And outside parliament, but with a chance, there is Conservative.

    Unless Labour/Green plus Mana (and realistically the Maori Party) get over 50% of the seats in parliament it will still be a struggle for the left to form a govt.

    After all, National is never Govt by itself, it has always needed allies.

    As is increasingly being noted, it is quite likely that Winston will get to decide.

    • Rogue Trooper 5.1

      could be worse.

    • Foreign Waka 5.2

      or the conservatives, rural NZ land.

    • lprent 5.3

      There are several distinct trends running over those last 5 years.

      Nationals possible coalition partners have withered away in party vote support with the possible exception of NZ First. I can’t see the Green wanting to go into coalition with them and they are the only other party with sufficient votes to do so.

      Now that their partners votes had disappeared, National’s own vote has now been eroding, and now shows no signs of recovering. They appear to be passing the point that even if they got a coalition with Winston that they’d need a pile of other parties in a really multi-headed hydra

      The Conservatives are pretty much in the same range as previous parties that have tried to occupy that space, and not getting traction to move upwards to the 5% boundary. So unless National try to gift them a seat (and BTW: I’d enjoy running a campaign on them doing that after Epsom last time), they just waste conservative vote.

    • MrSmith 5.4

      “MMP is a bit more than Labour/Green v National.”

      Jezz Wayne like we didn’t know that, but like any relationship thats based on something that can never be delivered on, we have now reached the breakup stage, Key along with his comedy team Banksy&Duneey are on the slide, Key promised a lot, a better government and a brighter future yet the majority of people arn’t seeing that Wayne and so the worm appears to have turned, sorry about that.

  6. captain hook 6

    yep the tories are nearly gone.
    the gang of inane lowbrows are on the skids.
    Now we caN EXPECT a return to decency and social obligation instead of the greedy grasping that the nats disguise as policy when it is really just theft from the public treasury.

  7. Mary 7

    Sorry James, but it just ain’t the time to be talking like this. Quite apart from the fact we’re a year out from the election which means anything can happen, the Left’s got far too much work to do before then. And it isn’t just about winning the election.

  8. George D 8

    Street was right about not needing distractions. If there are Labour or Green MPs sleeping with someone other than their significant life partner, they should probably tell them this week.

    (this isn’t an evil slur; I don’t have a clue what’s going on in bedrooms and don’t want to know.)

  9. George D 9

    A lot of work indeed, Mary.

  10. George D 10

    Lynn, the last time the Greens debated between being extremely and highly unlikely to go into coalition. The members will again debate – this time it will probably be between extremely highly unlikely and extremely extremely unlikely :)

    • lprent 10.1

      That has been my sense of shift. Last time was what could be done with a National government. This time it is known that there isn’t much to be done with a National government. The gradual debacle of where the insulation program wound up for instance

  11. Fisiani 11

    Looks a certainty that Labour/Greens?NZFirst?Mana government is preferred 400 days from the election. But when economy is going 3% growth strong, employment at a record high, thousands off benefits and into work and Government deficit turned into credit I wonder if it will still be so. The problem for Labour is that by November 2014 the evidence will clearly show the incumbents deserve voter support.

    • QoT 11.1

      when economy is going 3% growth strong, employment at a record high, thousands off benefits and into work and Government deficit turned into credit

      … I think you’re confusing Election 2014 with Election 2005.

      • Fisiani 11.1.1

        There were none of these things in 2005. You are very confused.

        • felix 11.1.1.1

          Not on Planet Fuckjob there weren’t.

          Here in NZ, on the other hand…

        • poem 11.1.1.2

          You’ve been living on planet key way too long Fsiani, you’ve lost touch with reality, much like John key and his national party.

        • tricledrown 11.1.1.3

          fisianal read the statistics nz website and weep but you will have to take your head out of your arse first!

    • bad12 11.2

      ”Government deficit into credit” LOLZ you are so so funny…

  12. Philgwellington Wellington 12

    You can bet the MSM will trumpet the rosy future ahead with slanted data and shonky
    analysis. How will National
    respond to the trend of the
    polls? Having been around small town NZ, you can see how some regions are poor, almost desperate. They deserve a better deal, and realistic policies to give them hope. Unfortunately, many of these regions vote tory. We now have cheap migrant labour in our dairy farms, vinyards, rest homes, fishing boats etc. Under our noises we have been duped into a low value logs and milk powder economy. Our standard of living has dropped and Labour and National are to be held to account. Will we be fooled again?

  13. Plan B 13

    Labour has to be cheap to prop up asset prices- cheap labour means expensive land – a farmer can give more income to banks in mortgage payments if labour is cheap enough.

  14. vto 14

    That all paints a pretty accurate broad picture, namely that the people of NZ trusted John Key’s words and promises and cut him some slack. After one term and a second election though the people could see – John Key could not be trusted and his promises were shit.

  15. Crunchtime 15

    “Watch for the cracks start to appear”… They already are, for all to see. GCSB, outrageous drilling for oil contracts, education disasters one after another, Nat-backed local body election candidates losing ground pretty much everywhere, frequent whisperings of a coup attempt from Collins…

    I don’t know if others have noticed but I have – how tired and stressed Key has looked a lot of the time for the last year or so, especially the last couple months. He’s been managing a sinking ship for much of that time.

    The cracks are already clearly visible. What we watch for next is National beginning to fall apart.

    They’re making it ridiculously easy for Cunliffe to make ground. I won’t be surprised if Labour gets an outright majority with the Greens over 12% too come next election, with the Nats back under 30% where they belong… . That’s what trends are pointing to right now.

    The Nats down to 20% like they were in 2002 is unlikely, although not entirely outside the realms of possibility.

  16. Philgwellington Wellington 16

    Hi Chrunch,
    FUNNY., I could see a very weary JK before the last election! He loves the glam but not the POLITICS! Really Funny!The writing is on the wall and JK will read the message and oblige himself.

  17. Crunchtime 17

    Very interesting – Tracey Watkins of the Dom Post has done a 180 in recent columns, coming out batting for Cunliffe.

    Coverage in the Dom Post of Winston’s latest plank re KiwiFund was also very interesting: they sought the opinion of ONE SINGLE political leader in response to it, and it wasn’t John Key.

    Cunliffe said it wouldn’t be the hardest thing in the world to agree to as part of a coalition deal.

    Red tide rising indeed, even for blue newspapers…

  18. Phil 18

    Recent polling will have included a Labour ‘bounce’ from additional exposure during the leadership campaign, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see some reversal of fortune over the next month or two.

    There’s also well documented international evidence that it’s not so much the level of unemployment or growth that matters in the run-up to an election, but the direction it’s heading. Whether an economy is improving from -1% to 2% growth, or from 2% to 5% growth the polling outcome for the incumbent is pretty much the same. So, National should get a polling benefit as the economy improves over 2014.

    I would also be willing to wager money on Winston failing to get back in, conditional on there not being another tea-tape cockup a week or two out from election day. That would bring National’s target down a couple of points if they get at least UF and an Act/Con’s seat on overhang.

    Then there’s the Maori Party. Anywhere from 1 to 3 seats. Does Flavell have the ability to articulate that he can get better gains for Maori Party supporters as the “senior-junior” coalition partner in a National cabinet, compared to being a “junior-junior” partner with Mana/Greens/NZF? The hard-left of his party have already defected to Mana, so it may be an easier sell than in the past.

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