web analytics

The red tide rising

Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2013 - 40 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags:

Here’s a graph of all the Roy Morgan polls going back to the 2008 election. National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.
LabGreen v Nats in Roy Morgans Oct 2013

40 comments on “The red tide rising”

  1. Rogue Trooper 1

    Red October

  2. Lanthanide 2

    This graph makes it pretty clear that the last poll that had National in front, at 51% to Labour’s 29% on Jully 15-28, was a massive outlier. Although I do recall that the contemporaneous polls by other media outfits showed broadly similar levels of support.

    That was also effectively the poll that did Shearer in. Interesting.

  3. Philgwellington Wellington 3

    Xox
    Thanks for the info. The key question is ‘will key make it to the next election?’ Will he desert the ship?

  4. Philgwellington Wellington 4

    Xox
    Thanks for the info. The key question is ‘will key make it to the next election?’ Will he desert the ship?

  5. Wayne 5

    MMP is a bit more than Labour/Green v National.

    There are other parties to factor in. From left to right they are Mana, Maori Party, NZF, UF and ACT. I put Maori Party to the left of NZF, but of course there are personalities to factor in. And outside parliament, but with a chance, there is Conservative.

    Unless Labour/Green plus Mana (and realistically the Maori Party) get over 50% of the seats in parliament it will still be a struggle for the left to form a govt.

    After all, National is never Govt by itself, it has always needed allies.

    As is increasingly being noted, it is quite likely that Winston will get to decide.

    • Rogue Trooper 5.1

      could be worse.

    • Foreign Waka 5.2

      or the conservatives, rural NZ land.

    • lprent 5.3

      There are several distinct trends running over those last 5 years.

      Nationals possible coalition partners have withered away in party vote support with the possible exception of NZ First. I can’t see the Green wanting to go into coalition with them and they are the only other party with sufficient votes to do so.

      Now that their partners votes had disappeared, National’s own vote has now been eroding, and now shows no signs of recovering. They appear to be passing the point that even if they got a coalition with Winston that they’d need a pile of other parties in a really multi-headed hydra

      The Conservatives are pretty much in the same range as previous parties that have tried to occupy that space, and not getting traction to move upwards to the 5% boundary. So unless National try to gift them a seat (and BTW: I’d enjoy running a campaign on them doing that after Epsom last time), they just waste conservative vote.

    • MrSmith 5.4

      “MMP is a bit more than Labour/Green v National.”

      Jezz Wayne like we didn’t know that, but like any relationship thats based on something that can never be delivered on, we have now reached the breakup stage, Key along with his comedy team Banksy&Duneey are on the slide, Key promised a lot, a better government and a brighter future yet the majority of people arn’t seeing that Wayne and so the worm appears to have turned, sorry about that.

  6. captain hook 6

    yep the tories are nearly gone.
    the gang of inane lowbrows are on the skids.
    Now we caN EXPECT a return to decency and social obligation instead of the greedy grasping that the nats disguise as policy when it is really just theft from the public treasury.

  7. Mary 7

    Sorry James, but it just ain’t the time to be talking like this. Quite apart from the fact we’re a year out from the election which means anything can happen, the Left’s got far too much work to do before then. And it isn’t just about winning the election.

  8. George D 8

    Street was right about not needing distractions. If there are Labour or Green MPs sleeping with someone other than their significant life partner, they should probably tell them this week.

    (this isn’t an evil slur; I don’t have a clue what’s going on in bedrooms and don’t want to know.)

  9. George D 9

    A lot of work indeed, Mary.

  10. George D 10

    Lynn, the last time the Greens debated between being extremely and highly unlikely to go into coalition. The members will again debate – this time it will probably be between extremely highly unlikely and extremely extremely unlikely 🙂

    • lprent 10.1

      That has been my sense of shift. Last time was what could be done with a National government. This time it is known that there isn’t much to be done with a National government. The gradual debacle of where the insulation program wound up for instance

  11. Fisiani 11

    Looks a certainty that Labour/Greens?NZFirst?Mana government is preferred 400 days from the election. But when economy is going 3% growth strong, employment at a record high, thousands off benefits and into work and Government deficit turned into credit I wonder if it will still be so. The problem for Labour is that by November 2014 the evidence will clearly show the incumbents deserve voter support.

    • QoT 11.1

      when economy is going 3% growth strong, employment at a record high, thousands off benefits and into work and Government deficit turned into credit

      … I think you’re confusing Election 2014 with Election 2005.

      • Fisiani 11.1.1

        There were none of these things in 2005. You are very confused.

        • felix 11.1.1.1

          Not on Planet Fuckjob there weren’t.

          Here in NZ, on the other hand…

        • poem 11.1.1.2

          You’ve been living on planet key way too long Fsiani, you’ve lost touch with reality, much like John key and his national party.

        • tricledrown 11.1.1.3

          fisianal read the statistics nz website and weep but you will have to take your head out of your arse first!

    • bad12 11.2

      ”Government deficit into credit” LOLZ you are so so funny…

  12. Philgwellington Wellington 12

    You can bet the MSM will trumpet the rosy future ahead with slanted data and shonky
    analysis. How will National
    respond to the trend of the
    polls? Having been around small town NZ, you can see how some regions are poor, almost desperate. They deserve a better deal, and realistic policies to give them hope. Unfortunately, many of these regions vote tory. We now have cheap migrant labour in our dairy farms, vinyards, rest homes, fishing boats etc. Under our noises we have been duped into a low value logs and milk powder economy. Our standard of living has dropped and Labour and National are to be held to account. Will we be fooled again?

  13. Plan B 13

    Labour has to be cheap to prop up asset prices- cheap labour means expensive land – a farmer can give more income to banks in mortgage payments if labour is cheap enough.

  14. vto 14

    That all paints a pretty accurate broad picture, namely that the people of NZ trusted John Key’s words and promises and cut him some slack. After one term and a second election though the people could see – John Key could not be trusted and his promises were shit.

  15. Crunchtime 15

    “Watch for the cracks start to appear”… They already are, for all to see. GCSB, outrageous drilling for oil contracts, education disasters one after another, Nat-backed local body election candidates losing ground pretty much everywhere, frequent whisperings of a coup attempt from Collins…

    I don’t know if others have noticed but I have – how tired and stressed Key has looked a lot of the time for the last year or so, especially the last couple months. He’s been managing a sinking ship for much of that time.

    The cracks are already clearly visible. What we watch for next is National beginning to fall apart.

    They’re making it ridiculously easy for Cunliffe to make ground. I won’t be surprised if Labour gets an outright majority with the Greens over 12% too come next election, with the Nats back under 30% where they belong… . That’s what trends are pointing to right now.

    The Nats down to 20% like they were in 2002 is unlikely, although not entirely outside the realms of possibility.

  16. Philgwellington Wellington 16

    Hi Chrunch,
    FUNNY., I could see a very weary JK before the last election! He loves the glam but not the POLITICS! Really Funny!The writing is on the wall and JK will read the message and oblige himself.

  17. Crunchtime 17

    Very interesting – Tracey Watkins of the Dom Post has done a 180 in recent columns, coming out batting for Cunliffe.

    Coverage in the Dom Post of Winston’s latest plank re KiwiFund was also very interesting: they sought the opinion of ONE SINGLE political leader in response to it, and it wasn’t John Key.

    Cunliffe said it wouldn’t be the hardest thing in the world to agree to as part of a coalition deal.

    Red tide rising indeed, even for blue newspapers…

  18. Phil 18

    Recent polling will have included a Labour ‘bounce’ from additional exposure during the leadership campaign, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see some reversal of fortune over the next month or two.

    There’s also well documented international evidence that it’s not so much the level of unemployment or growth that matters in the run-up to an election, but the direction it’s heading. Whether an economy is improving from -1% to 2% growth, or from 2% to 5% growth the polling outcome for the incumbent is pretty much the same. So, National should get a polling benefit as the economy improves over 2014.

    I would also be willing to wager money on Winston failing to get back in, conditional on there not being another tea-tape cockup a week or two out from election day. That would bring National’s target down a couple of points if they get at least UF and an Act/Con’s seat on overhang.

    Then there’s the Maori Party. Anywhere from 1 to 3 seats. Does Flavell have the ability to articulate that he can get better gains for Maori Party supporters as the “senior-junior” coalition partner in a National cabinet, compared to being a “junior-junior” partner with Mana/Greens/NZF? The hard-left of his party have already defected to Mana, so it may be an easier sell than in the past.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Key needs to stop shifting and come clean
    John Key’s position on his lawyer’s offshore trusts lobbying has changed yet again with the Prime Minister admitting he told Todd McClay that Ken Whitney had approached him, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Yet again information has to be… ...
    2 hours ago
  • Key needs to stop shifting and come clean
    John Key’s position on his lawyer’s offshore trusts lobbying has changed yet again with the Prime Minister admitting he told Todd McClay that Ken Whitney had approached him, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Yet again information has to be… ...
    2 hours ago
  • Revolutionary art in Palmerston North
    Last night I was a judge at the May Day Cup, an annual theatrical event which celebrates International Workers Day. The event was organised by stalwart unionist Dion Martin and included a range of performers competing for the Cup. This year… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    23 hours ago
  • Revolutionary art in Palmerston North
    Last night I was a judge at the May Day Cup, an annual theatrical event which celebrates International Workers Day. The event was organised by stalwart unionist Dion Martin and included a range of performers competing for the Cup. This year… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    23 hours ago
  • Andrew Little visits Zaatari refugee camp
    Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Little, has visited the largest Syrian refugee camp in the world, Zaatari in Jordan, a day after seeing New Zealand troops at Camp Taji in Iraq. Mr Little spent several hours in the camp, meeting… ...
    2 days ago
  • Com Com’s Z Energy decision anti-competitive
    The Commerce Commission’s decision to allow Z Energy to buy Caltex can only undermine the competition in the fuel industry that is needed to ensure New Zealanders pay the lowest price for petrol, Labour’s Consumer Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says.… ...
    2 days ago
  • Com Com’s Z Energy decision anti-competitive
    The Commerce Commission’s decision to allow Z Energy to buy Caltex can only undermine the competition in the fuel industry that is needed to ensure New Zealanders pay the lowest price for petrol, Labour’s Consumer Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says.… ...
    2 days ago
  • OAG raps Govt over the knuckles on HNZ contracts
    The Government has been rapped over the knuckles by the Auditor General over its failure to properly manage $2.3m of contracts and conflicts of interest in relation to a merchant banker advising them on the state house sell-off, says Labour’s… ...
    3 days ago
  • OAG raps Govt over the knuckles on HNZ contracts
    The Government has been rapped over the knuckles by the Auditor General over its failure to properly manage $2.3m of contracts and conflicts of interest in relation to a merchant banker advising them on the state house sell-off, says Labour’s… ...
    3 days ago
  • Brownlee must step in as EQC spin exposed
    Gerry Brownlee needs to step in after EQC’s desperate spin in the wake of yesterday’s landmark settlement has been exposed by its own documents, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. “Yesterday’s settlement showed that thousands of homes may not have… ...
    3 days ago
  • Brownlee must step in as EQC spin exposed
    Gerry Brownlee needs to step in after EQC’s desperate spin in the wake of yesterday’s landmark settlement has been exposed by its own documents, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. “Yesterday’s settlement showed that thousands of homes may not have… ...
    3 days ago
  • OIO must explain Argentine pollution prosecutions
    The Overseas Investment Office (OIO)has questions to answer about how it safeguarded our sensitive land by allowing foreign investors with criminal prosecutions to purchase Onetai Station in Taranaki, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe.   “Rafael and Federico Grozovsky… ...
    3 days ago
  • Aussie banks in NZ should ban lending to offshore buyers
    ASB, Westpac and ANZ must confirm whether or not they will continue to fund the over-heated property market by lending to non-resident offshore home buyers, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “This issue has arisen because their parent banks have… ...
    3 days ago
  • Aussie banks in NZ should ban lending to offshore buyers
    ASB, Westpac and ANZ must confirm whether or not they will continue to fund the over-heated property market by lending to non-resident offshore home buyers, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “This issue has arisen because their parent banks have… ...
    3 days ago
  • Murray McCully needs to come clean over Tokelau ferry debacle
    Foreign Minister Murray McCully needs to come clean on why a New Zealand aid-funded vessel intended to service the Tokelau Islands is delayed, over budget and failed its sea trials, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “The new ship… ...
    3 days ago
  • Full independent inquiry needed to save New Zealand’s reputation
    Revelations that John Key's personal lawyer and trust advisor led a lobbying campaign to shut down a review of New Zealand's foreign trust regime makes the case for a full scale independent inquiry a matter of urgency, Labour's Finance spokesperson… ...
    3 days ago
  • Full independent inquiry needed to save New Zealand’s reputation
    Revelations that John Key's personal lawyer and trust advisor led a lobbying campaign to shut down a review of New Zealand's foreign trust regime makes the case for a full scale independent inquiry a matter of urgency, Labour's Finance spokesperson… ...
    3 days ago
  • Andrew Little visits NZ troops in Iraq and refugees in Jordan
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has visited New Zealand troops at Camp Taji, Iraq. Mr Little also met with Iraqi Defence Minister Khaled Al-Obedih and senior military officials from the Coalition forces in Iraq. He now heads to Jordan to see… ...
    4 days ago
  • Workplace death toll still too high
    It’s a damning indictment on the Government that as workers gather to remember their lost workmates on Worker’s Memorial Day, New Zealand’s workplace death toll is still far too high, Labour’s Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “At… ...
    4 days ago
  • Workplace death toll still too high
    It’s a damning indictment on the Government that as workers gather to remember their lost workmates on Worker’s Memorial Day, New Zealand’s workplace death toll is still far too high, Labour’s Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “At… ...
    4 days ago
  • Minister must come clean on implications of landmark settlement
    Gerry Brownlee has urgent and serious questions to answer in the wake of today’s landmark EQC settlement, which potentially has major implications for thousands of Cantabrians, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. ...
    4 days ago
  • Mossack Fonseca links to OIO approvals must be investigated
    The Minister for Land Information must investigate and disclose how many applications to the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) have links to Mossack Fonseca, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe. “Labour can now reveal the OIO approved an application from… ...
    4 days ago
  • Mossack Fonseca links to OIO approvals must be investigated
    The Minister for Land Information must investigate and disclose how many applications to the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) have links to Mossack Fonseca, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe. “Labour can now reveal the OIO approved an application from… ...
    4 days ago
  • Govt complacency leaves RB no room to cut
    The Government has put the economy in a holding pattern, leaving the Reserve Bank Governor with little room to manoeuvre as he tries to balance a rampant housing market with non-existent inflation, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler… ...
    4 days ago
  • Govt complacency leaves RB no room to cut
    The Government has put the economy in a holding pattern, leaving the Reserve Bank Governor with little room to manoeuvre as he tries to balance a rampant housing market with non-existent inflation, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler… ...
    4 days ago
  • Dam not out of doldrums yet
    Ruataniwha Dam promoters Hawke’s Bay Regional Investment Company (HBRIC) still has hurdles to clear and a lot of work to do before ratepayers and taxpayers will have confidence in the scheme, says Labour’s MP for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Meka Whaitiri.“We need sustainable… ...
    4 days ago
  • New study shows Smith’s insulation fails Kiwi kids
    A new Otago University study shows Nick Smith’s inadequate insulation standards will see hundreds of children unnecessarily hospitalised for housing-related illnesses every year, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. ...
    5 days ago
  • Government out of touch on foreign trusts
    John Key’s poor handling of the foreign trusts issue is starkly revealed in a poll today which shows the majority of Kiwis are worried about the country being a tax haven and almost half think the issue has been badly… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government out of touch on foreign trusts
    John Key’s poor handling of the foreign trusts issue is starkly revealed in a poll today which shows the majority of Kiwis are worried about the country being a tax haven and almost half think the issue has been badly… ...
    5 days ago
  • Biggest trade deficit for 7 years a warning for Govt
    The biggest trade deficit for seven years shows the Government can’t be so complacent about the economy and must take action to diversify and encourage exports, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The biggest driver has been the fall in… ...
    5 days ago
  • Biggest trade deficit for 7 years a warning for Govt
    The biggest trade deficit for seven years shows the Government can’t be so complacent about the economy and must take action to diversify and encourage exports, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The biggest driver has been the fall in… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government’s record on climate change under fire
      The Royal Society’s latest report on climate change has made it clear that it believes the Government’s current approach to climate change is inadequate, says Labour’s spokesperson on Climate Change Megan Woods.  “The report, ‘Transition to a low-carbon economy… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government’s record on climate change under fire
      The Royal Society’s latest report on climate change has made it clear that it believes the Government’s current approach to climate change is inadequate, says Labour’s spokesperson on Climate Change Megan Woods.  “The report, ‘Transition to a low-carbon economy… ...
    5 days ago
  • Mainfreight director agrees with Labour on rail funding
    Richard Prebble – in the past accused of ruining rail and now a director of Mainfreight – agrees with Labour that secure funding for KiwiRail is the best way to minimise congestion in our major cities, says Labour’s SOEs spokesperson… ...
    5 days ago
  • Mainfreight director agrees with Labour on rail funding
    Richard Prebble – in the past accused of ruining rail and now a director of Mainfreight – agrees with Labour that secure funding for KiwiRail is the best way to minimise congestion in our major cities, says Labour’s SOEs spokesperson… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government to Reserve Bank – Rock or Hard Place?
    The Government’s complacency on the housing crisis and the economy has put the Reserve Bank Governor in a no-win position as he contemplates the OCR tomorrow, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler is stuck between a rock and… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government to Reserve Bank – Rock or Hard Place?
    The Government’s complacency on the housing crisis and the economy has put the Reserve Bank Governor in a no-win position as he contemplates the OCR tomorrow, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler is stuck between a rock and… ...
    5 days ago
  • John Key’s land tax could push up rents
    A land tax proposed by John Key as the answer to the housing crisis could push up rents and risks having no effect on skyrocketing prices, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Government needs to explain why the thousands… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government should ban foreign speculators
    The Prime Minister’s musings about a land tax on non-resident buyers is just more tinkering, and the Government should just ban foreign speculators as the Australian Government has done, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “This is classic John Key.… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government must protect Pharmac as promised
    John Key must tell New Zealanders that he will not bow to pressure from wealthy drug companies or their US negotiators and put Kiwi lives at risk, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says.   “News reports today have the drug… ...
    6 days ago
  • Action not words, needed on housing speculation
    John Key should be taking action to crack down on speculation in our overheated housing market, instead of random musings on land tax, Labour Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford said.  "John Key suggested today on TVNZ's Q and A programme that… ...
    1 week ago
  • Tertiary education cost rising 7x faster than inflation
    New figures show the cost of tertiary education is rising seven times faster than inflation, putting post-school education out of the reach of many, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says.  “Figures release this week show how much more students or their… ...
    1 week ago
  • Buying Lotto is not an arts funding strategy
    The Government must rethink the way the arts are funded after falling Lotto sales has left the sector with declining resources and increasingly vulnerable, Labour’s Arts, Culture and Heritage spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.  “Our arts sector is in a sorry… ...
    1 week ago
  • Parents hit in pocket by Government under-funding
    Parents and families are left forking out more and more for their kids’ education as a direct result of Government under-funding, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says.  “The latest data shows that the cost to families of primary and secondary… ...
    1 week ago
  • Scientists ‘gasping for oxygen’ under National
     Steven Joyce's claims to be creating a science and innovation hub in New Zealand are a sham based on PR fluff, says Labour's Science and Innovation Spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “A damning critique of the science funding model by the New… ...
    1 week ago
  • Scientists ‘gasping for oxygen’ under National
     Steven Joyce's claims to be creating a science and innovation hub in New Zealand are a sham based on PR fluff, says Labour's Science and Innovation Spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “A damning critique of the science funding model by the New… ...
    1 week ago
  • Water for grass
    Last Saturday, my colleague Eugenie Sage took me for a drive across the Canterbury Plains. I had seen from the air the landuse changes across the plains in recent times; a patchwork of crops and stock raising has been transformed… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Water for grass
    Last Saturday, my colleague Eugenie Sage took me for a drive across the Canterbury Plains. I had seen from the air the landuse changes across the plains in recent times; a patchwork of crops and stock raising has been transformed… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Thousands of invalid votes likely after National refuses to change rules
    National’s refusal to make it easier to enrol and vote could result in tens of thousands of votes continuing to be ruled invalid at general elections, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. The Justice and Electoral select committee today released… ...
    1 week ago
  • Social Development stats don’t add up
    Today’s figures released by the Ministry of Social Development show that despite a drop in the number of beneficiaries, fewer people are going into paid employment or study, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere