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Too close to call

Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments
Categories: conservative party, Economy, greens, labour, national, polls, uncategorized - Tags:

Roy Morgan November poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll results are out.

Labour is up 2% to 34%, National down 1% to 44.5%, Greens down 1.5% to 11% and the Conservatives are on 2%. Labour/Green is just ahead of National.

And Matthew Hooton has tweeted about Labour/Green being on 49% in a recent private poll.

After the leadership campaign and with the initial effects from the Cunliffe honeymoon waning the lift is welcome.  Labour has been taking the fight to National on issues such as crony capitalism, Pike River and the very unpopular asset sale process which is not releasing the money that was promised.  This appears to be working.

National is looking rattled and their very public overtures to the Conservative Party is a clear sign that without a viable support party they are toast.

But there is a long way to go until the next election …

111 comments on “Too close to call”

  1. AmaKiwi 1

    I am so proud to finally see a steady flow of mainstream media news stories: “Labour says . . . ,” “Cunliffe says . . . ”

    Hardly a day goes by without a Labour news story in the headlines. For too long the small Greens caucus had to carry on the fight by themselves.

    The Left is on the road to victory.

  2. fisiani 2

    This post must surely win November’s best spin of bad news into good award.
    It could easily have read “Labour cannibalising Green vote and Winston First still nowhere and Mana not even registering at all. National still with nearly 1 in 2 support and with likely return of ACT and UF and Maori party and a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s and all this before the amazing economic results of 2014.

    • gobsmacked 2.1

      “a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s”

      How?

      • amirite 2.1.1

        He thinks there are enough numbers of anti-fluoride chemtrail believing-nutters who will vote for Crazy Colin in his electorate, which in turn will bring 3 more MPs on his coat tails. I can’t think of anything else as an explanation.

      • fisiani 2.1.2

        5% gets you 6 MP’s 2.5% with a seat gets you 3 MP’s. Simple maths.

        • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1

          Again, how does he win a seat?

          “Simple maths” shows us that 99% of people on social media have now decided he’s a joke. Including many National voters.

          Or are you deliberately avoiding the news?

          For Fisiani …

          https://twitter.com/search?q=colin%20craig&src=typd&f=realtime

          • fisiani 2.1.2.1.1

            95% could think Colin Craig was a joke and he would still get another 5 fellow jokers. Remember that over 93% thought Winston crazier than batshit.

            • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1.1.1

              Please, please keep believing in Colin Craig. Please keep believing that he can’t harm National.

              Third time … what seat is he going to win?

              • fisiani

                The one that National want him to win Duh.

                • gobsmacked

                  OK, Fisiani, show us your strategic genius.

                  During the election campaign, the media will follow Craig around, and he will casually declare that “herpes is God’s punishment” or “only perverts get divorced” or “every kid needs a gun”.

                  How will Key respond?

                  He can’t say “it’s nothing to do with National”. You’ve just given him a National seat.

                  • fisiani

                    He will never be given a seat by National. He will have to win one.

                  • mickysavage

                    Or how about “I am aware of the theory that chemicals are being released at high altitude for some nefarious purpose but don’t know whether there is any truth in this or not” …

                    How will Key respond to that?

                • David H

                  And the Government lasts for about 5 minutes. We would be a bigger laughing stock than Italy for election hijinks and Crazy politicians.

                  Yeah Fisi the Nats are going to spurn him like he’s the poisoned Chalice, once the rest of NZ stop laughing at Key for even thinking of an alliance with the Crazy Conservatives, and Christian nutters.

    • Rogue Trooper 2.2

      while all this is hilarious fizz, you are definitely pushing manure up an incline with a toothpick :-D

    • Ad 2.3

      Well named, Fisiani.

    • aerobubble 2.4

      Mana, what gives? why do small parties do that? Have one face. Looks what happened to ACT with just one face, and when that face falls flat on itself. Whats with Winston, same deal, the also rans are too weak so as to not to offend the dotty old guy ramblings. The only party outside of the two mainstream, that has is the Greens, because any muggins can contest the leadership. If I were Mana I’d dump Hone and put up a meaningful candidate in that seat, that’ll spin National plans into crisis.

      Run a Green in the Cromandal (or better Dunnes seat) uncontested by Labour, and add salt to National wounds. How hard would it be to say Dunne voted against asset sales over and over.

      Its called Politics and so being interesting, confident means spinning the wheel.

      • David H 2.4.1

        And it wouldn’t be hard for labour to pull out of Dunne’s seat and ask their voters to vote in the Green Candidate. And thats how simple it is.

      • alwyn 2.4.2

        “Run a Green in Coromandel uncontested by Labour”
        Not the greatest idea really. The people of the Coromandel aren’t quite that stupid.
        In the 2011 General Election the votes went as follows.
        Delahunty (Green) 5,660
        Kinimonth (Labour) 5,831
        Simpson (National) 18,571
        So even if every single Labour voter, in the absence of a Labour candidate, were to vote for the Green candidate that would STILL leave National with a majority of more than 7,000.

  3. red blooded 3

    Don’t let’s get overconfident. The Nats have timed things so that we will be back in surplus next year (never mind the service cuts required to reach this goal), the asset sales will be over, the ChCh rebuild will be pumping the economy, there will be all sorts of scaremongering about issues to do with oil (gotta get it out of the ground and pumped away ASAP!), electricity, radical socialism gone mad… There’s a long way to go yet. Can you imagine these guys as a 3rd term government? Scary thought.

    • tc 3.1

      Agree, they are well advised, funded and supported by various MSM outlets and unlike the left don’t care who they trample over or how as long as they get the results.

      Focus on Key, the cronyism deal making and all the BS that has become his stock in trade, without him they are toast as the numbers speak for themselves on asset sales, tax cuts costs etc etc.

      Could start with when are chorus going broke Johnny ? You said it so it must be true o financial genius.

    • mickysavage 3.2

      Yep I can. I thought about emigrating if Labour did not win the 1999 election …

    • jcuknz 3.3

      It will make them a push over for 2017 though and about time then to upset all the little cliques so that new L/G ones can form.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    It’s going to be a frakin’ hard fight next year. Key and English will have lined up a bunch of good news announcements, and don’t be surprised if it includes high profile feel-good corporate activity.

    Also I wanted to see the gender breakdown of these RM figures but I don’t think they have split them out this time.

    • bad12 4.1

      Do you get the impression that Roy was having a little play at ‘spinning’ when the poll separated out the gender balance in the last poll,( the gender issue is one means of ensuring a party could get a negative result in polling depending where in the questioning it is asked, the Reid Poll is said to ask a number of such leading questions while polling befor asking for the persons particular party support)…

    • David H 4.2

      But thats the thing, it’s ALWAYS the fucking Corporates that get the feel good things, while the rest of us just get shat on from a great height.

    • Francis 4.3

      The corporates already have a limited ability to alter the economic conditions to favour certain governments through confidence, etc. Remember the Winter of Discontent?

  5. 2.5 % wont vote for the nutcases in the conservative party, they may be get 1%, but that will be it.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      Could get 2 MPs in quite comfortably, a third maybe. LAB/GR need to head this off by playing in the target electorate real smart.

      • Lanthanide 5.1.1

        Maybe they could just say they aren’t going to compete in an electorate where National is trying to blatantly game the system, and encourage all left-wing voters to vote for National to ensure Colin doesn’t get in.

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          +1

          • David H 5.1.1.1.1

            And if they worked it out between them in all the Nat marginals then maybe the Greens could easily pick up a couple of seats or more, and then you would have a true partnership. Not this ‘win at all costs’ mentality, while targeting your political allies, instead of your political enemies. Tactical is the way to go.

        • Ake ake ake 5.1.1.2

          That is actually quite clever. So, in that case, electorate vote would be National, and party vote would be up to left-wing voters.

    • bad12 5.2

      On Planet Brett Dale how many party voted for the Conservatives in the 2011 election???…

      • Brett Dale 5.2.1

        bad12:

        They were knew, he spent a ton, now that people know what he stands for, there is no way 2% of the public would give him their party vote.

  6. Will@Welly 6

    I was picking National to win next years election hands down, particularly with the snake oil leader Key in charge, and Joyce leading the spin brigade. Now, with David Cunliffe lifting the troops, ably supported by the Greens – who have been well marshalled and organised – things are turning. But you can’t take anything for granted. National is already in election mode. They are preparing for the election now – getting their bag of tricks and sweeteners ready for the giveaways to buy their way back into power.
    Look at ACC. They raised the fees when they came into power, created a crisis, now, with things looking dicey next year, the shackles come off, they’ve managed to unload thousands off their long-term commitments, they’re flush with funds – our money – and now, next year, they’re going to “reward” us. Typical Tories.

  7. Ad 7

    So does anyone in Labour exist other than David Cunliffe?

    This has got to be the laziest front bench I have seen since, ah, David Shearer’s front bench.

    Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally. Goff and King remain honest toilers. Great.

    But as expected Robertson has disappeared without a ripple, Arden is completely M.I.A., local wannabes like Nash or Sepuloni appear only for relentless self-promotion about how much they want to be elected, Dalziell has gone, and the rest fail to make a media mention despite the worst-performing National bench since Bolger’s second term.

    Labour have failed to capitalise on the leadership selection, got very little bump out of Conference, appear to have no media strategy whatsoever, have done seriously no campaigning on its signature opposition campaign (the actual Referendum), have a leader that only does best on overly-orchestrated set pieces…
    …and as a result have polling results that go up and down faster than my girlfriends’ pants.

    Whatever is happening in what poses for Labour HQ, sort your shit out, because National clearly gets it.

    • Rogue Trooper 7.1

      so naughty.

    • bad12 7.2

      Your girlfriends pants going up and down so fast says a hell of a lot more about you than Labour, this could be a premature comment of course but then by the sound of you premature is right up your alley…

    • Colonial Viper 7.3

      National is right into it’s renewal process weeding out the chaff. With even more pro-active announcements before Christmas I reckon.

      • Ad 7.3.1

        National MPs understand the momentum is temporarily with Labour as the Christchurch East by election, and Referendum, gain news traction.

        But they are actively working on a State of the Nation speech for the third week of January that will reflect the largest national lolly-scramble of vote-buying that we have seen for decades.

        It will also have the promise of further tax cuts should they get elected.

        And wait for the sports people they have lined up as candidates: handsome, rich, famous, media-savvy. Trust me their names floated are good.

        They have game-breaking stuff ready to go that will fully extinguish any Labour momentum built this calendar year.

        Shit must be sorted.

    • felix 7.4

      “Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally.”

      Jones needs a fucking muzzle. Seriously, he should literally be made to wear a ball gag in public.

      Just the other day, when asked about something Gareth Hughes (representing the only hope Labour has of governing any time in the next 20 years) had said about deep-sea oil drilling, Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy)

      Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

      Someone in Labour needs to take him out behind the barn and put a bullet in him like any other useless old nag.

      • Morrissey 7.4.1

        Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy): “Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

        I know you’re only joking here, felix, but just in case anyone is wondering, I did NOT transcribe that, nor did I make it up.

        I do share your sentiments about the egregious Shane Jones, however. He is one of the most pompous gits in parliament.

  8. bad12 8

    A good poll, in this one NZfirst are gone from the Parliament, (not that i have any great belief that Winston’s crew are any lower than the 4.8% of the 2008 election), and further consideration of that particular little point would suggest that National are probably in this poll 2% higher than what is credible,

    Given the numbers it simply appears that Slippery has no friends, Banks is a conviction away from occupying a more fitting ‘House’ and i have the sneaking suspicion if the words of Party Prez Boscowan are any guide that either way Banks’s name might be absent from the ballot come November 2014,

    What chance of Slippery and National ‘gaming’ the electorate again in 2014 by giving Colon Craig and the 2% Conservatives the ‘nod’ in a particular electorate, slim if any i would suggest and if Labour and the Green Party have an ounce of ‘smarts’ they will go through any particular electorate National try to gift to Craig and identify every Green and Labour voter convincing them of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

    Where the 3 electorate seats held by the Maori Party go in November 2014 i think on these numbers will make this the crucial question for Labour/Green and Labour needs to definitely hoover up the Maori Parties current 1.5% of the party vote from these electorates,

    Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God,(as opposed to an act of Goofy in the form of Colon Craig),will be needed by Slippery and National to gain a third term in 2014…

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      identify every Green and Labour voter convincing of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

      This.

      Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God

      Labour should help Annette Sykes win that one. They really should.

      “Act of Goofy”…awesome!

      • Craig Y 8.1.1

        All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?

      • Craig Y 8.1.2

        All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?

    • weka 8.2

      The Bad12 version

      L 46
      G 14
      M 2
      =62

      NZF

      MP 0
      UF 1
      N 58
      ACT 0
      =59

    • David H 8.3

      So what botox smooth face will they have for the next election?

  9. dave 9

    half a percent the a quarter there thats all we need to do we chip away small little gains will add up !

  10. Ad 10

    Too close to call unless you are John Key. Because he can count. In fact he only needs to count to 2, (including Speaker), because he’s done it for 5 years.

    No evidence Labour can yet.

    Learn or lose, Labour.

  11. Rogue Trooper 11

    nothin’ to do with the interwebz or social media.Nope.

  12. alwyn 12

    This is really to close to call.
    If you assume, which is quite possible, that the Maori Party, ACT, United Future and Mana all get an electorate seat and that Labour and National take all the others the Parliament would be
    National 57
    Labour 44
    Green 14
    Maori 2
    Mana 1
    ACT 1
    United Future 1
    On the current split of parties that would be Right 61, Left 59. That is a very small win to the current government.
    I used the electoral calculator on the elections.org.nz website.

    • fisiani 12.1

      Should be MP 3
      Centre 59
      Left and Far Left 59

      But you have ignored the 3 4 or 5 Conservatives who are not Right either.
      We have no Right in NZ.

      • alwyn 12.1.1

        I assumed that with Tariana and Pita retiring the Maori party might hold only one or two electorate seats.
        Also I did not assume that the Conservatives would be able to win an electorate seat. That is the most “conservative situation”, which assumes minimum changes.
        One can always make alternative assumptions, and think of all sorts of “ifs”. However you should always remember the old saw. “If my Aunt had balls she would have been my Uncle”

      • hoom 12.1.2

        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right (Labour) or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.

      • hoom 12.1.3

        “We have no Right in NZ.”
        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.

    • Te Reo Putake 12.2

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?

      • Zorr 12.2.1

        +1

        As much as anything can (and will) happen in an election cycle, it is National on the ropes now. Labour has been on the ropes for the past 2-4 years (depending on how you choose to look at it) taking some brutal punishment and they dropped very far. Unless we are going to start considering a sub-30 result for Labour under Cunliffe, the only real way for them is still further up. There is a lot of skirmishing for position at the moment but I wouldn’t expect for there to be full scale engagements until after the Xmas/New Year doldrums.

        National, on the other hand, need a lot to stay in power. They are relying on results going their way in a variety of situations and if only a few of those go the wrong way… well, they’re out.

        tl;dr version: Labour have everything to win, nothing to lose except an election and, if they keep the pace up, will be looking strong going in to the final stretch. National are requiring a lot of things going their way including gerrymandering the electoral system to ensure a coalition partner so that no matter how strong they may be they will always appear shaky in comparison to Labour.

        Even shorter version: Go Labour – make me proud. If you lose this one I’m gonna cry.

        • Grantoc 12.2.1.1

          “National on the ropes now”???

          When they’re 10% ahead of Labour in this poll? And, if you consider the results of other recent polls, more than 10% ahead of Labour?

          It’s wishful thinking to say that Nationals on the ropes, based on one poll result where the margin of error is around 3/4%

          Its more accurate to say that Labour’s failing to gain traction, with its results in recent pols varying between around 30 – 34%.

      • alwyn 12.2.2

        Have a look at my comment to Fisiana. Think of some other “ifs”. Say a 1% swing to the Nats.
        Think if Labour beat Hone and Mana are out. I chose the conservative approach, and I don’t mean Conservative with a capital C, either.
        If one is looking at a poll you shouldn’t decide that my party will do better than the poll and the other party will do worse. Once you do that you are just making up numbers and ignoring the poll.

        • Te Reo Putake 12.2.2.1

          At least you’re acknowledging National need to make a gain somewhere. In other words, they’re playing catch up. This no longer their election to lose.

    • Te Reo Putake 12.3

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?

      • lprent 12.4.1

        Also, hands up who thinks NZF will fail the 5% threshhold?

        Not me. Their base constituency is growing slowly. Certainly isn’t shrinking.

        • Rogue Trooper 12.4.1.1

          sigh, Yep, and the Colon Craig limited appeal ain’t shiftin’ much of those seasoned warhorses.

        • Fisiani 12.4.1.2

          The NZF constituency is and always have been steadily dying or dementing just like Winston.

          • lprent 12.4.1.2.1

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?

            • Fisiani 12.4.1.2.1.1

              In 2011 it was obvious that Labour would and could not win. Voters therefore deserted Labour in droves giving them their lowest ever vote and some of that vote ended up with Winston. Thus with a resurgent Labour led by The Cunliffe those votes will return home and have done so already according to the polls. The true base for Winston was about 4% and 90% of that base are extremely elderly. Just take a look at the audience in his meetings. 6 years after 2008 the Winston First base is thus about 3% due to natural attrition. He still needs to find another 40,000 mugs to reach the 112,000 threshold. The possible mugs are more likely to go with the Conservatives as they have a leader who is in good health and likely to stand in 2014 and all the way through to 2017 unlike Winston.

          • lprent 12.4.1.2.2

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?

            Basically NZF targets specific groups well. I suspect at present it is growing its voter base because the Key government is making politicians look very evil again. The only problem they probably have this election is succession planning…

      • alwyn 12.4.2

        Yeah, well I did assume that the Maori party would have trouble holding on to 3 electorate seats when both Tariana and Pita quit. Your approach can however easily be argued.

      • Zorr 12.4.3

        +hand up

        However, I think you are being generous there because ACT is unlikely to survive (you have to calculate their odds of still existing before you even include them in the figures :P) and UF not collapsing under the weight of all that hypocrisy and hair.

        Then, on top of that, you have the Maori Party bleeding support and up against a resurgent Labour.

        I would say that the only figures that matter at all (and that requires us to think polls are anything other than self serving figures :P) at the moment are Nat vs Lab/Green because the more minor parties are in such precarious positions that until we get closer to the election we will have no idea of how it will turn out for them.

        • weka 12.4.3.1

          Whereas I think it’s a mistake to assume this is a two horse race. The election will be decided by the parties smaller than LG/N. Better to be thinking that through now I reckon.

          Also, RM says if an election were held today, hence the inclusion of ACT. I’m happy to take them out if someone makes the case (just put Bad’s hypothesis in the calculator, see above. It’s minus ACT, plus a rejigging of the Maori vote). But I don’t think we can assume or rely on the disappearance of UF. Or NZF. Unfortunately.

          • bad12 12.4.3.1.1

            Weka, on the numbers it is entirely in the hands of Labour/Green whether they occupy the treasury Benches after November 2014,

            This would tho i suggest require that both Labour and the Green’s party strategists convince them of a number of positions both party’s must take at that election,

            The first,(and one i do not believe for a moment will occur), would be for Labour to contest neither Te Tai Tokerau or Waiariki only campaigning for the Party votes in those two electorates,

            The second which i have already mentioned a couple of times is for the Labour and Green Party’s to identify all their voters in the electorates which the ACT and Conservative Parties have been given the ‘nod’ by National and campaign directly to such supporters that they vote strategically for the National candidate,(of course National might stymie such electioneering by simply not standing a candidate),

            Had Labour/Green candidates convinced 2000 odd voters of the above in the Epsom 2011 ballot,(out of a combined 7000 and something votes), the Act Party would have been toast as Banks only sneaked past National’s candidate by 2000 odd votes…

        • alwyn 12.4.3.2

          If we do as you say than we can just as easily say that we shouldn’t take any notice of this poll at all. One cannot say I will take the numbers that I like and ignore the ones I don’t like and have any valid discussion at all. Of course we can’t take much notice of any of the figures a year out but that means why should we take account of the figures for any of the major parties either.
          Let’s say National go up to 48%, Labour down to 31% and the Green party to 9%. Nobody else gets an electorate seat of 5%.
          On the other hand why bother. Just take the numbers that this poll gives us and see what they imply.

          • Zorr 12.4.3.2.1

            The point that I am trying to make is that there are a lot of noise in polls. In this election (as opposed to some of the past elections), all the minor parties have serious issues that are external to just winning votes. If you want me to list them, I can… here I go

            Mana – as much as they could strengthen Labours chances by winning an electorate seat, it requires Labour to stand aside to make it a sure thing and that is unlikely

            Maori Party – are they retiring? Are they holding on for just one more election? Who the hell knows – I doubt they even know themselves. Add in to that they have effectively sold their soul to National for the baubles and that 3% may just disappear in to the ether if they fail to win electorate seats.

            ACT – need to John Banks to not go to jail and still win an electorate seat

            UF – who knows what Dunne is up to? Add in to that the fact he may have completely spent his political capital now – once again, needs to win an electorate seat

            Conservatives – once again, need to find an electorate and then convince them that a carpet bagging Christian who has cut a deal with John Key is someone worth voting for

            NZF – need to get over 5% – but, as lprent rightly pointed out, their constituency is only growing so maybe I should up their chances

            However, apart from NZF every single party is relying on winning an electorate seat and hoping that a contender (because, lets face it, a strong one isn’t necessarily needed) doesn’t come along to push them off their perch. This is why I feel that the minor parties aren’t worth placing weight on at this point until things shake out further.

            • alwyn 12.4.3.2.1.1

              There are some interesting things there I agree
              A couple of comments I would make are.
              Mana. I would have thought that Hone was safe but that he didn’t have coat tails and would remain by himself. I don’t know that Labour would really want to work with him though and may go all out to beat him.

              Maori I think Flavell is safe. and one electorate is all they need.

              ACT I don’t know. They may be dead but they can probably rake up enough money and a decent candidate to keep Epsom. It doesn’t need to be Banks though.

              UF Dunne is a very, very good electorate MP and he is still keen. I don’t think Labour can beat him and I don’t think National is going to try to hard.

              Conservatives God knows. They at least have the money to compete with the tax-payer funded campaigns (unlimited travel etc) of the parties that are already in Parliament but I don’t really think they’ll make it.

              NZF This is the interesting one. I am beginning to wonder whether Winnie, and let’s face it he IS the party, has the energy anymore. If you look at the Roy Morgan poll numbers he is slipping a bit. In 2012 they got 5% or more in 18 of 22 polls. In 2013 they have only got 5% in 10 of 22 polls. I think that they may slip below the radar again.
              In 2012 they averaged 5.3% but in 2013 only 4.5% in each poll.

        • bad12 12.4.3.3

          ACT may yet also have one more twist in the electoral wind befor the noose finally shuts off the oxygen supply,

          i had a listen to ACT Party Prez John Boscowan talking on RadioNZ this afternoon where Banks’s chances were being discussed, altho He didn’t directly say so in words i get the distinct impression that Boscowan was intimating that ‘the Board’ just might cut Banks loose as their Epsom candidate no matter what happens with the ‘trial’

          Given a ‘cleaner’ candidate and another ‘nod’ towards them from Slippery the PM, the Actors might still, sadly, have a last gasp in them…

  13. Mike S 13

    Speaking of polls, how do they poll people?

    The reason I ask is that I’ve never been asked in a poll and neither has anyone I know or anyone they know. Which seems a bit odd. Do they only phone landlines? Or do they stop and ask people in the street?

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      on the RM results page they say they contact both landlines and mobiles…a few commentators here on The Standard have been rung by polling companies before. I have too, but quite a few years back now, and none recently.

      • Mike S 13.1.1

        Thanks CV. Any idea how they get the mobile numbers? I ask this because in my case, there’s no connection between my name and my mobile number as I use a prepaid. This is the same with pretty much all of my friends, that is no landline and a prepaid mobile.

        Looking at what I’ve written, that’s probably a fairly good reason why none of us has ever been involved in a poll. D’oh !

        Still, I’d be interested to see how big of a slice of eligible voters they are missing out and particularly whether or not those people are generally similar in terms of parties they vote for. Myself and most of the people I know are what I guess you’d call left leaning voters and in my opinion, that would be the case with most people in the same situation. (Just a guess obviously but to be honest, the few right leaning voters I associate with tend to have landlines and / or mobile accounts.)

        I could easily see a large number of the not so well off having no landline and at most a prepaid mobile. Again just my opinion but I would assume the majority of these people would also vote for leftish parties.

        I guess I’m trying to figure out why National has such a high polling percentage as I literally don’t know anyone who would vote for National if there were an election tomorrow. Even Dad, who has voted national all his life without even thinking about it, has said he wouldn’t vote for John Key again.

        • Andrew 13.1.1.1

          One approach is to randomly generate numbers within prefixes. Then connection test them. Then sample the connected numbers randomly and in proportion to prefix sizes (this is known as RDD sampling).

          According to a tweet I saw, RM appear to do something similar to this:
          http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/07/15/a-wee-bit-more-info-to-add-to-the-poll-methods-grid/

          Presumably they control somehow for overlap with their landline sample frame – such as screening out most of those they call on cells because they also have a landline (because they are covered by the landline sample frame), or weighting the results, or targeting a certain number who also have landlines and a certain number who don’t.

        • Andrew 13.1.1.2

          When I was at Uni I didn’t know anyone *at all* who supported National (at least nobody told me they did). Now I’m in the private sector I know a lot more people who support National. I think it’s just that my social connections have changed.

          Although some people who post here really hate polls, the thing is, *nobody* knows a representative group of NZers. People might think they do, but they really don’t. You might know a good cross-section by age, gender, location, income, and ethnic group – but what about other things that can influence political preference – such as what movies people have seen, books they have read, socialisation, etc?

          So *good* polls or surveys are a good way we can find out what people very different to ourselves might think.

  14. phil 14

    “We have no right in NZ”. Fisiani, don’t you mean “we have no rights in NZ”. The latter is more accurate. Talk to The Pike River families, Kim Dot Com, Canterbury Regional Council, Christchurch EQ residents, forced council amalgamations, DOC Ruataniwha officers, caregivers of special needs family members, parents of roast buster teenagers, right to swim in unpolluted rivers etc. The so called ‘right’ wing in NZ is far right, it’s just that we have the MSM media telling us that Lab/green is far left. Selling of profit making Assets is far right in my book. As is knowingly despoiling the environment. Not to mention cutting workers rights and taxes of the rich.

  15. McFlock 15

    Tragedy. Wail. Labour with margin of error movement, still in their 30-33% natural level. When oh when will they get the leader I support, the country will jump behind labour then. [Yawn] /sarc

  16. ak 16

    Heads up.

    The Marketing Party knows better than any the importance of leading into the break in election year.

    Hard, hard push on NO required, starting now if not sooner. TV ads, billboards and newsworthy gimmicks please.

    And brace for a most serious distraction: major benny-bash; very, very soon.

  17. Tracey 17

    I wonder how does hooten reconcile his poll with these results. Different demographic? What was the methodology. Does it realky exist?

  18. Tanz 18

    Oh, yay fo Colin Craig, the light at the end of the tunnel, the brigadier that we very much need. Woohoo!!!!

  19. Crunchtime 19

    It really depends on

    1. Labour’s performance in the coming months, particularly Cunliffe of course but I think we need to see a growing sense of unity and for that ugly blue/purple streak to be gently, gradually surgically removed

    2. A growing sense of unity and pragmatism in the strategic thinking between Labour and Green. Not political thinking, not policy thinking, strategic. I think we’ve seen enough in the last few elections to know that politics and policy don’t win elections. Being able to market your policy effectively wins elections.

    Depending on how well Cunliffe, Labour, Turei, Norman and the Greens do at this, and how well the media deals with it (and is dealt with), I think we’ll see a trend upwards and anywhere up to a 10% swing towards Labour/Green. Maybe even more?

    But we gotta be hard-nosed about this.

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    Greens | 06-10
  • We need more houses, not Ministers
    The Government’s decision to have three housing Ministers will create a dog’s breakfast of the portfolio and doesn’t bode well for fixing the country’s housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New Zealanders need more houses, not more Ministers....
    Labour | 05-10
  • MANA’S CHALLENGE TO THE 51st PARLIAMENT
    Ten years ago I led 50,000 Maori on the historic FORESHORE AND SEABED MARCH from Te Rerenga Wairua to the very steps of this parliament, in a march against the greatest land grab in the history of this country –...
    Mana | 03-10
  • Is this really necessary?
    No one denies chief executives should be well paid for their skills and experience, but it is the efforts of all employees which contribute to company profits, Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker says. “Salaries paid to chief executives come at...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Lyttelton Port workers also deserve pay rises
    Hard slog by Lyttelton Port workers contributed to strong financial growth for the company and they deserve to be rewarded for their work as much as its chief executive, says Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker. “Lyttelton Port chief executive Peter...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Māori Party must seek guarantees on Māori seats
    Labour is calling on the Māori Party to ensure protection of the Māori seats is part of its coalition deal with National which is being considering this weekend, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “For the third consecutive term,...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Donaghys job losses another blow to Dunedin
    The loss of 30 jobs from Donaghys rope and twine factory is yet another blow to the people and economy of Dunedin, says Dunedin South Labour MP Clare Curran. “Donaghys was founded in 1876; the company has survived two world...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Dairy price fall shows urgent need to diversify
    The overnight drop in milk prices shows New Zealand’s overreliance on the dairy industry puts our economy in a vulnerable position, says Acting Labour Leader David Parker. “Dairy prices fell 7.3 per cent overnight and have almost halved since February....
    Labour | 02-10
  • Tasks aplenty for new Health Minister
    One of the first jobs for the new Minister of Health must be to provide an honest and transparent report into surgery waiting times and exactly how many Kiwis are not having their health needs met, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette...
    Labour | 02-10
  • OIA protocols and official advice ignored to hide Child Poverty
    It might not seem so now, but child poverty was a major election issue. What a pity we did not have the full debate. In that debate it would have been very helpful to have seen the Ministry of Social...
    The Daily Blog | 20-10
  • Previewing the 4 candidates for Leader of the Labour Party
    The extraordinary outbursts by Shearer last week highlights just how toxic that Caucus is. Shearer was on every major media platform as the ABC attack dog tearing into Cunliffe in the hope of diminishing Cunliffe’s support of Little by tearing...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – the sudden explosion of ‘left’ blogs
    Time to Teach or more people will suffer from P.A.I.D. Political And Intellectual Dysmorphia.I was on the Twitter and a guy followed me so of course I did the polite thing and followed him back. He wrote a blog so...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Ego vs Eco
    Ego vs Eco...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • We can’t let the Roastbuster case slip away
    Those of us (like me) left with hope that the police would aggressively follow through on the large amount of evidence on offer to them (let’s not forget they forgot they even had some at one point) in the Roastbusters...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Food, shelter and medicine instead of bombs and bullets
    The on-going conflict across the Middle East – due in large part to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – has created another humanitarian crisis of biblical proportion. The essentials of life are desperately needed in Iraq and Syria...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • The politics of electorate accommodations
    National’s electorate accommodations with ACT and United Future were a big factor in it winning re-election. Interestingly, there is another electorate accommodation scenario whereby the centre-left could have come out on top, even with the same distribution of party votes....
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Why you should join the TPPA Action on 8 November
    On 8 November 2014, thousands of Kiwis will take part in the International Day of Action to protest the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). The rally cry for us is TPPA – Corporate Trap, Kiwis Fight Back. Why should you join...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG – Patrick O’Dea: no new coal mines
    Green Party and Mana Party policy is “NO NEW COAL MINES!” Auckland Coal Action is trying to put this policy into action on the ground. ACA after a hard fought two year campaign waged alongside local residents and Iwi, in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Comparing Police action – Hager raid vs Roast Buster case
    This satire had the NZ Police contact TDB and threaten us with 6months in prison for using their logo.   The plight of Nicky Hager and the draconian Police actions against him has generated over  $53 000 in donations so...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Malala Yousafzai, White Saviour Complexes and Local Resistance
    Last week, Malala Yousafzai was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since her exposure to the worldwide spotlight, her spirit, wisdom and strength have touched the hearts of people everywhere. However, there have been cynics who have argued that...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Jason Ede is back – but no media can interview him?
    Well, well, well. Jason Ede, the main figure connected to John Key’s office and the Dirty Politics black ops is back with a company with deep ties to the National Party. One thing you can say about the right –...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Leadership Transitions In Other Parties: A ...
    As cannot have escaped anyone’s attention by now, the country is presently in the grips of an election and campaign that will help determine the fate of the nation for years to come. It’s gripping stuff – with clear divides...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • SkyCity worker says she faces losing her house
    SkyCity worker Carolyn Alpine told the company annual shareholder’s meeting today that she faced the prospect of losing her house because the company had cut her shifts from two a week to one without consultation. The solo mother, has worked...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • Greg O’Connor’s latest push to arm cops & 5 reasons not to
    I was wondering at what point within a 3rd term of National that Police Cheerleader Greg O’Connor would start trying to demand cops be armed. O’Connor must have thought to himself, ‘if bloody Key can get us and the GCSB vast new...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • You can’t have crisis without ISIS
    So the new scary bogeyman ISIS might have chemical weapons that the US secretly found in Iraq, but America didn’t want to expose this find because the WMDs were actually built and made by the US and Europe, the two powers...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • NZ WINS UN SPIN THE BOTTLE! Privately sucking up to America for a decade me...
    Oh, we are loved! Little old NZ, the 53rd state of America after Israel and Australia, gets to sit at the adults table for the special dinner party that is the UN Security Council. How delightful, a decade of privately...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • MEDIA BLOG – Myles Thomas – A World Without Advertising
    Non-commercial broadcasting and media. It’s a solution for all manner of problems ailing our tender nation… voter engagement, unaccountable governance, apathy, stupefaction, public education, science in schools, arts appreciation, cultural cringe… But no-one could’ve guessed that non-commercial media might solve...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October
    March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • Whack a mole as US govt foreign policy
    Whack-A-Mole was a popular arcade game from my youth.  It consisted of a waist high cabinet with holes in the top. Plastic moles seemingly randomly pop out of these holes. The purpose of the game was to hit as many...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • In Paean of Debt
    This week is ‘Money Week’. It’s an opportunity to promote to the middle classes, and anyone else who will listen, the virtues of wise ‘investment’. The aims are to promote the mystical (and indeed mythical) virtues of saving for the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • The last 48 hours – Poverty denial, war denial and unapologetic abuse of ...
    The bewildering speed of events that simply end in Key shrugging and proclaiming he doesn’t really give a shit is coming think and fast as the Government suddenly appreciate the full spectrum dominance they now enjoy. Here is Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Mana 2.0 Rebooted
    Internationally the news is that Evo Morales of Bolivia won big with Left Wing policies But what are the chances that the Left will make a resurgence in this country? As the internecine struggles between the Left and the Right...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Blomfield IPCA letter – Has Dirty Politics leaked into the NZ Police ...
    It’s difficult to know what to make of the IPCA letter to Matthew Blomfield over Slater’s continued insistence that the hard drive taken from Matthew wasn’t stolen.  Slater has selectively cherry picked the Police referring back to his claim that Blomfeild perjured...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • ​Media release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union – Auckland move for K...
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is questioning a KiwiRail proposal to progressively relocate its Zero Harm personnel from Wellington to Auckland. “The purpose of the Zero Harm team is to drive KiwiRail’s performance in health and safety.  Rail is a...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Amnesty International – Friend request from an IS militant
    There’s always that one person, that one Facebook friend, usually a musician or event promoter, who, when you so foolishly accept their friend request, will completely inundate your news feed with copious event invitations and promotions. The person who, despite...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • NZ should follow the UK and recognize the Palestinian state
    Over the past two weeks, the United Kingdom and Sweden have made headlines through their decisions to recognize the state of Palestine. They are hardly the first nations to do so. Indeed, 134 countries have, in various ways, given formal...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Discordant Chimes of Freedom: Why Labour has yet to be forgiven.
    WHY DOES THE ELECTORATE routinely punish Labour and the Greens for their alleged “political correctness” but not National? It just doesn’t seem fair. Consider, for example, the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007 – the so-called “anti-smacking legislation” –...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Hosking or Henry – Which right wing crypto fascist clown do you want to w...
    So Mediaworks are finally going to make some actual money from their eye watering contract with Paul Henry by launching a new multi-platform Breakfast show over TV, Radio and internet. This is great news for Campbell Live who have dodged...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Families need more money to reduce child poverty
    Prime Minister John Key is mistaken to rule out extending the In Work Tax Credit to all poor children (The Nation 11th Oct) and Child Poverty Action Group challenges government advisors to come up with a more cost effective way...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Don’t shit on my dream
    Once were dreamers. A large man, walks down the road and, even from 200 yards there’s light showing between his big arms and bigger body. It’s as if he’s put tennis balls under his arms. Two parking wardens walk out...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Labour and ‘special interests’
    The media narrative of Labour is that it is unpopular because it’s controlled by ‘special interests’. This ‘special interests’ garbage is code for gays, Maoris, wimin and unionists. We should show that argument the contempt it deserves. The next Labour...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Ru...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Tahi) . National’s housing development project: ‘Gateway’ to confusion . Perhaps nothing better illustrates National’s lack of a coherent housing programme than the ‘circus’ that is...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Here’s what WINZ are patronisingly saying to people on welfare when they ...
    Yesterday, a case manager from WINZ called to tell me that I needed to “imagine what I would do if I did not have welfare”. I replied “Well, I guess if I couldn’t live at home, I would be homeless.”...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • David Shearer’s ‘no feminist chicks’ mentality highlights all that is...
    Mr Nasty pays a visit Shearer’s extraordinary outburst last night on NZs favourite redneck TV, The Paul Henry Show, is a reminder of all that is wrong within the Labour Caucus right now… He said the current calls for a female or...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0
    Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – A Tale Of Two Cities
    Sunday was surreal. I went for a drive and ended up in a different country. It wasn’t intentional but those days of too many literally intertextual references seldom are. There is no doubt that the Sunday drive this week had...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Key raises terror threat level to justify war in Iraq and now the SIS need ...
    Have we learned nothing from rushing into war? It’s embarrassing Key has raised our terror threat from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ so he can justify military action in Iraq. Watching him pimp for an American war is as sick as...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Socialism? in France; Austerity in Europe
    On Sunday I stumbled upon this recent New York Times column The Fall of France by Paul Krugman. Then I caught BBC’s Newsnight interview with France’s ‘Socialist’ Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Krugman notes that the Socialists came to power on an anti-austerity mandate, but completely squandered their opportunity...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • So Snowden and Greenwald were right – again – NZ Embassies spying for A...
    Well, well, well. What do we have here… NZ embassies involved in covert intelligence work for US – reportsNew Zealand’s embassies have been involved in covert intelligence gathering work on behalf of the United States, a fresh batch of classified...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Why David Parker *isn’t* a credible choic...
    The one electoral contest this year that a Labour leader is sure to win heated up over the weekend with the late entry of Finance Spokesman (and interim caretaker leader) David Parker into Labour’s leadership race. I’d blogged late last...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Fran O’Sullivan’s extraordinary column
    Note how the carefully constructed flow chart above ignores the mainstream media’s complicity with Slater and Dirty Politics    I am no fan of Fran O’Sullivan’s politics and would argue long into the day against her on many of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Final salute to Cunliffe
    Final salute to Cunliffe...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • David Cunliffe’s statement
    I am today announcing that I have decided not to nominate for the 2014 Labour Party leadership contest. It has been a hard decision to make but it is one that I believe is in the best interests of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Cunliffe to quit leadership race – the losers are the Labour Party member...
    That’s all folks   And so ends the first ever Labour Party member/affiliates choice for leadership. David Cunliffe is standing down at 2pm and is supporting Andrew Little instead. What a perverse turn of events. Cunliffe was punished by an angry Labour leadership forced...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Want to see new Nu Zilind? Read the comments section of Andrea Vance’s co...
    Andrea Vance is no stooge. She is one of the few mainstream media voices who has challenged power and authority, her latest column on the outrageous attempts by Key to use fear mongering to  spook the sleepy hobbits into war...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Humanity calling Government – anyone with empathy home?
    On Friday night groups of Invercargill activists and plain ole people who care took part in the 14 Hours Homeless event – sleeping out in the balmy southern climate on cardboard and couches at our Salvation Army Citadel. It’s a...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Labour, leadership and White blokes
    David Shearer said on TV3’s The Nation this weekend that he appreciated the support Labour’s received from Maori and Pacific communities over the last few elections, but that it was important to again, secure the votes of ordinary white blokes...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Wrong priorities in media coverage of Ebola crisis
    The experts have told us that there is very little likelihood of a serious Ebola outbreak in any Western nation – unless the virus changes so that it can be spread through the air rather than just via bodily fluids....
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • John Key uses the same old warmongering recipe
    Less than three weeks after the election Prime Minister John Key wants New Zealand to join a war in the Middle East and extend the powers of our US-focused spy agencies the SIS (Security Intelligence Service) and the GCSB (Government...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Speech from the Throne brings welcome focus on children
    Today’s speech from the Throne confirms the Government’s focus on children, youth and their families in the areas of health, education, youth employment, poverty alleviation and Whānau Ora; now the challenge is to ensure every child in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • John’s Job Fairs no fix for unemployment and poverty
    “John Key has clearly been looking to the US for his latest bright idea on dealing with employment issues,” says Auckland Action Against Poverty coordinator Sue Bradford. “Job fairs where the desperately unemployed queue in their corporate best to compete...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech From the Throne Foreshadows More Corporate Welfare
    Responding to the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne, which outlined that the Government’s intentions for the next Parliamentary term would include further Business Growth Agenda initiatives, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Green MP to speak at panel on Rainbow Mental Health
    Hamilton, New Zealand: Recently re-elected Green Party MP Jan Logie will be a guest speaker at a panel on the mental health of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Trangender, Takataapui and Intersex people taking place on November 1st as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Evidence Supports GE Moratorium
    Federated Farmers spokesman Graham Smith's call for a 'rethink' on release of GeneticallyEngineered organisms is misguided, and instead it is time for a formal moratorium on GMOs in the environment.(1)...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Chatham Rise mining could have impact on whales and dolphins
    Wellington, 21 October 2014--Mining phosphate on the Chatham Rise, off the east coast of New Zealand’s south island, could potentially have many impacts on marine mammals like whales and dolphins, the Environmental Protection Agency was told today....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Council endorses Nanaia Mahuta as the next Labour leader
    Te Kaunihera Māori, the Māori Council of the New Zealand Labour Party, have passed a resolution to endorse the Hon Nanaia Mahuta as the next leader of the Labour Party...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Kaumatua to organise petition to end Maori seats
    Ngapuhi kaumatua David Rankin has announced that he will be organising a nationwide petition to seek support from Maori voters to end the Maori seats. “These seats are patronising”, he says. “They imply we need a special status, and that...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Announcing a New Voice for The Left
    Josh Forman is pleased to announce the creation of a new force on the Left of politics in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Public services held back by poor workplace culture
    A new report by Victoria University’s Centre for Labour, Employment and Work shows that public servants are working significant unpaid overtime to ensure the public services New Zealanders value are able to continue....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
    Andrew Little’s probability of being the next leader of the Labour Party has reached 70% and Jacinda Ardern is favourite to become his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Prison Drug Treatment Unit marks a milestone
    Christchurch Men’s Prison’s Drug Treatment Unit (DTU) celebrated the completion of its 50th six month Drug and Alcohol Programme today, with the graduation of a further twelve offenders....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Security Council seat a chance for NZ to empower women
    The UN Women National Committee Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Women NCANZ) welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use its position to proactively promote effective implementation of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Waipareira and ACC sign Partnership
    Waipareira and The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding at Whanau Centre, Henderson – marking a special day for the West Auckland Urban Maori organisation....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Humanitarian aid desperately needed in Iraq and Syria
    Global Peace and Justice Auckland is calling on the government to provide humanitarian funding for non-aligned NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Middle East rather than give any support whatever for the US-led military campaign in the area....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Court Judicial Decision: Dotcom v The USA: 17 October 2014
    The United States of America is seeking the extradition of Messrs Dotcom, Batato, Ortmann and Van Der Kolk. The matter has been before the Courts on numerous occasions, and no further recitation of the facts is needed....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Marshall Island poet speaks at UN climate summit
    “The fossil fuel industry is the biggest threat to our very existence as Pacific Islanders. We stand to lose our homes, our communities and our culture. But we are fighting back. This coming Friday thirty Pacific Climate Warriors, joined by...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Many tourist car accidents preventable
    Simple steps could dramatically reduce the number of accidents involving tourists, says the car review website dogandlemon.com ....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • RainbowYOUTH: 25 Years, 25 More
    In 1989, a group of young people in Auckland got together to form a support group for LGBTIQ youth. They called it Auckland Lesbian And Gay Youth (ALGY). After 25 years, several location changes, a name change, a brand reboot...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Outdated Oath shows need for Kiwi Head of State
    MPs are sworn in today and New Zealand Republic has written to MPs asking them to talk about why 121 New Zealanders elected by the people of New Zealand and standing in the New Zealand Parliament swear allegiance to another...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Council shouldn’t revenue grab from windfall valuations
    Auckland Council should state clearly they will not try and capture revenue as a result of the latest valuations and needs reminding that the City’s skyrocketing property values doesn’t change the level or cost of Council’s services, says...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • EPMU endorses Andrew Little for Labour leadership
    The National Executive of the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union unanimously endorsed Andrew Little for the role of Labour leader, at a meeting held yesterday. “I have been speaking to our workplace delegates at forums across the country over...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • World Food Day promotes Agroecology not GE technology
    The UN has stated that agroecology is a major solution to feeding the world and caring for the earth....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Labour Names Review Team
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Contenders for Labour leadership debate for first time
    The contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party debated for the first time on TV One’s Q+A programme today....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • UN Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme
    New Zealand's United Nations Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme....
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully
    Murray McCully says New Zealanders can expect a 5-10 year engagement against Islamic State if we join military action in Iraq and the government will take that “very carefully into account”...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard says there is “sufficient evidence” to fight Islamic State and does not think it will increase the risk of a domestic attack...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • NZ businesses to make child abuse a priority conversation
    Many leading New Zealand businesses have partnered with national child advocacy organisation Child Matters to participate in the fourth annual ‘Buddy Day’ - New Zealand’s only child abuse prevention awareness day....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Tribunal decision significant for SMEs
    The Human Rights Review Tribunal decided this week in favour of an employee’s right not to work on Saturdays for religious reasons. The decision may still be appealed but the Director of the Office of Human Rights Proceedings, Robert Kee,...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • On The Nation this weekend
    This weekend on The Nation… New Zealand has been elected to the United Nations Security Council, but what happens next? Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully from New York about our goals for reform, what America wants from us...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • 1000+ supported by Te Arawa Whanau Ora
    Over 1000 individual whānau members are leading happier, healthier, more successful lives as a result of eight passionate and committed Māori organisations working at the coalface to help whānau find success....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Nomination for Board Members Now Open
    CRF’s objective is to create opportunities for people from refugee backgrounds to lead fulfilling lives and contribute to every area of New Zealand society. It is an organisation that undertakes advocacy work using the strengths-based approach,...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Anglican Family Care Otago staff to take industrial action
    Social workers, family workers and support staff working for Anglican Family Care in Dunedin and South Otago will take industrial action after their employer refused a pay increase that would keep up with the rising cost of living....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Use UN Security Council role to overcome inaction and injust
    Amnesty International welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the UN Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use the role to ensure the body lives up to its role of safeguarding global peace and security....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Grisham’s ‘child porn’ comments ignorant
    World-renowned author John Grisham has come under fire by advocacy group Stop Demand Foundation, for comments it says trivialises the global child sex abuse trade....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Latest leak of TPPA intellectual property text confirms risk
    On the eve of the latest (non)round of negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) yet another version of the intellectual property has found its way to Wikileaks ....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • New Zealand awarded UN Security Council seat
    International aid agency Oxfam New Zealand welcomes New Zealand’s election to the United Nations Security Council, saying it gives an extraordinary opportunity to make a lasting contribution to international peace and security and improve the lives...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • 40 more jobs lost to cheap imports
    40 more jobs lost to cheap imports Another New Zealand manufacturer is closing its doors, giving the lie to the idea that we have a “rock star” economy or any strategy for jobs growth. Wellpack is a paper bag manufacturer...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs
    Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs 29 roles are to be cut at the Christchurch manufacturing facility of Tasman Insulation, the company which manufacturers the iconic Pink Batts brand of products. The company is proposing to consolidate its...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Kellogg cereal donations help the Sallies feed those in need
    Kellogg New Zealand commits 64,000 serves of breakfast cereal during World Food Day Coinciding with World Food Day this year, Kellogg New Zealand and The Salvation Army are reaching out to less fortunate Kiwis with the donation of 64,000 serves...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • National Slips, Labour Hits Lows
    National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZ parents hope for more than just happy and healthy babies
    Auckland, 16 October 2014 – What do expectant mums and dads hope for their children? According to new research from Growing Up in New Zealand , a baby’s health and happiness may be high up on the list, but today’s...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZPI backs Minister’s affordable housing stance
    NZPI backs Minister’s affordable housing stance NZPI is supportive of Hon. Dr Nick Smith’s, efforts to use the RMA as a mechanism for taking the heat out of the housing affordability challenge in New Zealand. “As Minister for Environment...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Prime Minister’s OIA Admision Disturbing
    The Taxpayers’ Union is calling for answers after it was revealed on Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report that the Prime Minister’s office routinely flouts its obligations under the Official Information Act. Taxpayers’ Union spokesman, Ben...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZDIA forum press release
    NZDIA forum press release Wellington - The New Zealand Defence Industry Association, with the support of the NZ Defence Force and the Ministry of Defence, will be holding a two-day international forum on October 21-22 at the Michael Fowler Centre...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • BPW NZ calls fashion industry to account
    The New Zealand Federation of Business and Professional Women (BPW NZ) joins the call for action on the use of skinny models and mannequins as it is directly affecting the self-esteem and health of many of our young people....
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Electoral Commission introduces Extra Touch for Blind NZers
    The Electoral Commission was presented with the Extra Touch Award by the Association of Blind Citizens of New Zealand (Blind Citizens NZ), in recognition of its successful implementation of Telephone Dictation Voting ahead of its commitment to do so by...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
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