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Too close to call

Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments
Categories: conservative party, Economy, greens, labour, national, polls, uncategorized - Tags:

Roy Morgan November poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll results are out.

Labour is up 2% to 34%, National down 1% to 44.5%, Greens down 1.5% to 11% and the Conservatives are on 2%. Labour/Green is just ahead of National.

And Matthew Hooton has tweeted about Labour/Green being on 49% in a recent private poll.

After the leadership campaign and with the initial effects from the Cunliffe honeymoon waning the lift is welcome.  Labour has been taking the fight to National on issues such as crony capitalism, Pike River and the very unpopular asset sale process which is not releasing the money that was promised.  This appears to be working.

National is looking rattled and their very public overtures to the Conservative Party is a clear sign that without a viable support party they are toast.

But there is a long way to go until the next election …

111 comments on “Too close to call”

  1. AmaKiwi 1

    I am so proud to finally see a steady flow of mainstream media news stories: “Labour says . . . ,” “Cunliffe says . . . ”

    Hardly a day goes by without a Labour news story in the headlines. For too long the small Greens caucus had to carry on the fight by themselves.

    The Left is on the road to victory.

  2. fisiani 2

    This post must surely win November’s best spin of bad news into good award.
    It could easily have read “Labour cannibalising Green vote and Winston First still nowhere and Mana not even registering at all. National still with nearly 1 in 2 support and with likely return of ACT and UF and Maori party and a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s and all this before the amazing economic results of 2014.

    • gobsmacked 2.1

      “a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s”

      How?

      • amirite 2.1.1

        He thinks there are enough numbers of anti-fluoride chemtrail believing-nutters who will vote for Crazy Colin in his electorate, which in turn will bring 3 more MPs on his coat tails. I can’t think of anything else as an explanation.

      • fisiani 2.1.2

        5% gets you 6 MP’s 2.5% with a seat gets you 3 MP’s. Simple maths.

        • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1

          Again, how does he win a seat?

          “Simple maths” shows us that 99% of people on social media have now decided he’s a joke. Including many National voters.

          Or are you deliberately avoiding the news?

          For Fisiani …

          https://twitter.com/search?q=colin%20craig&src=typd&f=realtime

          • fisiani 2.1.2.1.1

            95% could think Colin Craig was a joke and he would still get another 5 fellow jokers. Remember that over 93% thought Winston crazier than batshit.

            • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1.1.1

              Please, please keep believing in Colin Craig. Please keep believing that he can’t harm National.

              Third time … what seat is he going to win?

              • fisiani

                The one that National want him to win Duh.

                • gobsmacked

                  OK, Fisiani, show us your strategic genius.

                  During the election campaign, the media will follow Craig around, and he will casually declare that “herpes is God’s punishment” or “only perverts get divorced” or “every kid needs a gun”.

                  How will Key respond?

                  He can’t say “it’s nothing to do with National”. You’ve just given him a National seat.

                  • fisiani

                    He will never be given a seat by National. He will have to win one.

                  • mickysavage

                    Or how about “I am aware of the theory that chemicals are being released at high altitude for some nefarious purpose but don’t know whether there is any truth in this or not” …

                    How will Key respond to that?

                • David H

                  And the Government lasts for about 5 minutes. We would be a bigger laughing stock than Italy for election hijinks and Crazy politicians.

                  Yeah Fisi the Nats are going to spurn him like he’s the poisoned Chalice, once the rest of NZ stop laughing at Key for even thinking of an alliance with the Crazy Conservatives, and Christian nutters.

    • Rogue Trooper 2.2

      while all this is hilarious fizz, you are definitely pushing manure up an incline with a toothpick :-D

    • Ad 2.3

      Well named, Fisiani.

    • aerobubble 2.4

      Mana, what gives? why do small parties do that? Have one face. Looks what happened to ACT with just one face, and when that face falls flat on itself. Whats with Winston, same deal, the also rans are too weak so as to not to offend the dotty old guy ramblings. The only party outside of the two mainstream, that has is the Greens, because any muggins can contest the leadership. If I were Mana I’d dump Hone and put up a meaningful candidate in that seat, that’ll spin National plans into crisis.

      Run a Green in the Cromandal (or better Dunnes seat) uncontested by Labour, and add salt to National wounds. How hard would it be to say Dunne voted against asset sales over and over.

      Its called Politics and so being interesting, confident means spinning the wheel.

      • David H 2.4.1

        And it wouldn’t be hard for labour to pull out of Dunne’s seat and ask their voters to vote in the Green Candidate. And thats how simple it is.

      • alwyn 2.4.2

        “Run a Green in Coromandel uncontested by Labour”
        Not the greatest idea really. The people of the Coromandel aren’t quite that stupid.
        In the 2011 General Election the votes went as follows.
        Delahunty (Green) 5,660
        Kinimonth (Labour) 5,831
        Simpson (National) 18,571
        So even if every single Labour voter, in the absence of a Labour candidate, were to vote for the Green candidate that would STILL leave National with a majority of more than 7,000.

  3. red blooded 3

    Don’t let’s get overconfident. The Nats have timed things so that we will be back in surplus next year (never mind the service cuts required to reach this goal), the asset sales will be over, the ChCh rebuild will be pumping the economy, there will be all sorts of scaremongering about issues to do with oil (gotta get it out of the ground and pumped away ASAP!), electricity, radical socialism gone mad… There’s a long way to go yet. Can you imagine these guys as a 3rd term government? Scary thought.

    • tc 3.1

      Agree, they are well advised, funded and supported by various MSM outlets and unlike the left don’t care who they trample over or how as long as they get the results.

      Focus on Key, the cronyism deal making and all the BS that has become his stock in trade, without him they are toast as the numbers speak for themselves on asset sales, tax cuts costs etc etc.

      Could start with when are chorus going broke Johnny ? You said it so it must be true o financial genius.

    • mickysavage 3.2

      Yep I can. I thought about emigrating if Labour did not win the 1999 election …

    • jcuknz 3.3

      It will make them a push over for 2017 though and about time then to upset all the little cliques so that new L/G ones can form.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    It’s going to be a frakin’ hard fight next year. Key and English will have lined up a bunch of good news announcements, and don’t be surprised if it includes high profile feel-good corporate activity.

    Also I wanted to see the gender breakdown of these RM figures but I don’t think they have split them out this time.

    • bad12 4.1

      Do you get the impression that Roy was having a little play at ‘spinning’ when the poll separated out the gender balance in the last poll,( the gender issue is one means of ensuring a party could get a negative result in polling depending where in the questioning it is asked, the Reid Poll is said to ask a number of such leading questions while polling befor asking for the persons particular party support)…

    • David H 4.2

      But thats the thing, it’s ALWAYS the fucking Corporates that get the feel good things, while the rest of us just get shat on from a great height.

    • Francis 4.3

      The corporates already have a limited ability to alter the economic conditions to favour certain governments through confidence, etc. Remember the Winter of Discontent?

  5. 2.5 % wont vote for the nutcases in the conservative party, they may be get 1%, but that will be it.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      Could get 2 MPs in quite comfortably, a third maybe. LAB/GR need to head this off by playing in the target electorate real smart.

      • Lanthanide 5.1.1

        Maybe they could just say they aren’t going to compete in an electorate where National is trying to blatantly game the system, and encourage all left-wing voters to vote for National to ensure Colin doesn’t get in.

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          +1

          • David H 5.1.1.1.1

            And if they worked it out between them in all the Nat marginals then maybe the Greens could easily pick up a couple of seats or more, and then you would have a true partnership. Not this ‘win at all costs’ mentality, while targeting your political allies, instead of your political enemies. Tactical is the way to go.

        • Ake ake ake 5.1.1.2

          That is actually quite clever. So, in that case, electorate vote would be National, and party vote would be up to left-wing voters.

    • bad12 5.2

      On Planet Brett Dale how many party voted for the Conservatives in the 2011 election???…

      • Brett Dale 5.2.1

        bad12:

        They were knew, he spent a ton, now that people know what he stands for, there is no way 2% of the public would give him their party vote.

  6. Will@Welly 6

    I was picking National to win next years election hands down, particularly with the snake oil leader Key in charge, and Joyce leading the spin brigade. Now, with David Cunliffe lifting the troops, ably supported by the Greens – who have been well marshalled and organised – things are turning. But you can’t take anything for granted. National is already in election mode. They are preparing for the election now – getting their bag of tricks and sweeteners ready for the giveaways to buy their way back into power.
    Look at ACC. They raised the fees when they came into power, created a crisis, now, with things looking dicey next year, the shackles come off, they’ve managed to unload thousands off their long-term commitments, they’re flush with funds – our money – and now, next year, they’re going to “reward” us. Typical Tories.

  7. Ad 7

    So does anyone in Labour exist other than David Cunliffe?

    This has got to be the laziest front bench I have seen since, ah, David Shearer’s front bench.

    Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally. Goff and King remain honest toilers. Great.

    But as expected Robertson has disappeared without a ripple, Arden is completely M.I.A., local wannabes like Nash or Sepuloni appear only for relentless self-promotion about how much they want to be elected, Dalziell has gone, and the rest fail to make a media mention despite the worst-performing National bench since Bolger’s second term.

    Labour have failed to capitalise on the leadership selection, got very little bump out of Conference, appear to have no media strategy whatsoever, have done seriously no campaigning on its signature opposition campaign (the actual Referendum), have a leader that only does best on overly-orchestrated set pieces…
    …and as a result have polling results that go up and down faster than my girlfriends’ pants.

    Whatever is happening in what poses for Labour HQ, sort your shit out, because National clearly gets it.

    • Rogue Trooper 7.1

      so naughty.

    • bad12 7.2

      Your girlfriends pants going up and down so fast says a hell of a lot more about you than Labour, this could be a premature comment of course but then by the sound of you premature is right up your alley…

    • Colonial Viper 7.3

      National is right into it’s renewal process weeding out the chaff. With even more pro-active announcements before Christmas I reckon.

      • Ad 7.3.1

        National MPs understand the momentum is temporarily with Labour as the Christchurch East by election, and Referendum, gain news traction.

        But they are actively working on a State of the Nation speech for the third week of January that will reflect the largest national lolly-scramble of vote-buying that we have seen for decades.

        It will also have the promise of further tax cuts should they get elected.

        And wait for the sports people they have lined up as candidates: handsome, rich, famous, media-savvy. Trust me their names floated are good.

        They have game-breaking stuff ready to go that will fully extinguish any Labour momentum built this calendar year.

        Shit must be sorted.

    • felix 7.4

      “Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally.”

      Jones needs a fucking muzzle. Seriously, he should literally be made to wear a ball gag in public.

      Just the other day, when asked about something Gareth Hughes (representing the only hope Labour has of governing any time in the next 20 years) had said about deep-sea oil drilling, Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy)

      Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

      Someone in Labour needs to take him out behind the barn and put a bullet in him like any other useless old nag.

      • Morrissey 7.4.1

        Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy): “Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

        I know you’re only joking here, felix, but just in case anyone is wondering, I did NOT transcribe that, nor did I make it up.

        I do share your sentiments about the egregious Shane Jones, however. He is one of the most pompous gits in parliament.

  8. bad12 8

    A good poll, in this one NZfirst are gone from the Parliament, (not that i have any great belief that Winston’s crew are any lower than the 4.8% of the 2008 election), and further consideration of that particular little point would suggest that National are probably in this poll 2% higher than what is credible,

    Given the numbers it simply appears that Slippery has no friends, Banks is a conviction away from occupying a more fitting ‘House’ and i have the sneaking suspicion if the words of Party Prez Boscowan are any guide that either way Banks’s name might be absent from the ballot come November 2014,

    What chance of Slippery and National ‘gaming’ the electorate again in 2014 by giving Colon Craig and the 2% Conservatives the ‘nod’ in a particular electorate, slim if any i would suggest and if Labour and the Green Party have an ounce of ‘smarts’ they will go through any particular electorate National try to gift to Craig and identify every Green and Labour voter convincing them of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

    Where the 3 electorate seats held by the Maori Party go in November 2014 i think on these numbers will make this the crucial question for Labour/Green and Labour needs to definitely hoover up the Maori Parties current 1.5% of the party vote from these electorates,

    Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God,(as opposed to an act of Goofy in the form of Colon Craig),will be needed by Slippery and National to gain a third term in 2014…

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      identify every Green and Labour voter convincing of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

      This.

      Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God

      Labour should help Annette Sykes win that one. They really should.

      “Act of Goofy”…awesome!

      • Craig Y 8.1.1

        All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?

      • Craig Y 8.1.2

        All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?

    • weka 8.2

      The Bad12 version

      L 46
      G 14
      M 2
      =62

      NZF

      MP 0
      UF 1
      N 58
      ACT 0
      =59

    • David H 8.3

      So what botox smooth face will they have for the next election?

  9. dave 9

    half a percent the a quarter there thats all we need to do we chip away small little gains will add up !

  10. Ad 10

    Too close to call unless you are John Key. Because he can count. In fact he only needs to count to 2, (including Speaker), because he’s done it for 5 years.

    No evidence Labour can yet.

    Learn or lose, Labour.

  11. Rogue Trooper 11

    nothin’ to do with the interwebz or social media.Nope.

  12. alwyn 12

    This is really to close to call.
    If you assume, which is quite possible, that the Maori Party, ACT, United Future and Mana all get an electorate seat and that Labour and National take all the others the Parliament would be
    National 57
    Labour 44
    Green 14
    Maori 2
    Mana 1
    ACT 1
    United Future 1
    On the current split of parties that would be Right 61, Left 59. That is a very small win to the current government.
    I used the electoral calculator on the elections.org.nz website.

    • fisiani 12.1

      Should be MP 3
      Centre 59
      Left and Far Left 59

      But you have ignored the 3 4 or 5 Conservatives who are not Right either.
      We have no Right in NZ.

      • alwyn 12.1.1

        I assumed that with Tariana and Pita retiring the Maori party might hold only one or two electorate seats.
        Also I did not assume that the Conservatives would be able to win an electorate seat. That is the most “conservative situation”, which assumes minimum changes.
        One can always make alternative assumptions, and think of all sorts of “ifs”. However you should always remember the old saw. “If my Aunt had balls she would have been my Uncle”

      • hoom 12.1.2

        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right (Labour) or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.

      • hoom 12.1.3

        “We have no Right in NZ.”
        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.

    • Te Reo Putake 12.2

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?

      • Zorr 12.2.1

        +1

        As much as anything can (and will) happen in an election cycle, it is National on the ropes now. Labour has been on the ropes for the past 2-4 years (depending on how you choose to look at it) taking some brutal punishment and they dropped very far. Unless we are going to start considering a sub-30 result for Labour under Cunliffe, the only real way for them is still further up. There is a lot of skirmishing for position at the moment but I wouldn’t expect for there to be full scale engagements until after the Xmas/New Year doldrums.

        National, on the other hand, need a lot to stay in power. They are relying on results going their way in a variety of situations and if only a few of those go the wrong way… well, they’re out.

        tl;dr version: Labour have everything to win, nothing to lose except an election and, if they keep the pace up, will be looking strong going in to the final stretch. National are requiring a lot of things going their way including gerrymandering the electoral system to ensure a coalition partner so that no matter how strong they may be they will always appear shaky in comparison to Labour.

        Even shorter version: Go Labour – make me proud. If you lose this one I’m gonna cry.

        • Grantoc 12.2.1.1

          “National on the ropes now”???

          When they’re 10% ahead of Labour in this poll? And, if you consider the results of other recent polls, more than 10% ahead of Labour?

          It’s wishful thinking to say that Nationals on the ropes, based on one poll result where the margin of error is around 3/4%

          Its more accurate to say that Labour’s failing to gain traction, with its results in recent pols varying between around 30 – 34%.

      • alwyn 12.2.2

        Have a look at my comment to Fisiana. Think of some other “ifs”. Say a 1% swing to the Nats.
        Think if Labour beat Hone and Mana are out. I chose the conservative approach, and I don’t mean Conservative with a capital C, either.
        If one is looking at a poll you shouldn’t decide that my party will do better than the poll and the other party will do worse. Once you do that you are just making up numbers and ignoring the poll.

        • Te Reo Putake 12.2.2.1

          At least you’re acknowledging National need to make a gain somewhere. In other words, they’re playing catch up. This no longer their election to lose.

    • Te Reo Putake 12.3

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?

      • lprent 12.4.1

        Also, hands up who thinks NZF will fail the 5% threshhold?

        Not me. Their base constituency is growing slowly. Certainly isn’t shrinking.

        • Rogue Trooper 12.4.1.1

          sigh, Yep, and the Colon Craig limited appeal ain’t shiftin’ much of those seasoned warhorses.

        • Fisiani 12.4.1.2

          The NZF constituency is and always have been steadily dying or dementing just like Winston.

          • lprent 12.4.1.2.1

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?

            • Fisiani 12.4.1.2.1.1

              In 2011 it was obvious that Labour would and could not win. Voters therefore deserted Labour in droves giving them their lowest ever vote and some of that vote ended up with Winston. Thus with a resurgent Labour led by The Cunliffe those votes will return home and have done so already according to the polls. The true base for Winston was about 4% and 90% of that base are extremely elderly. Just take a look at the audience in his meetings. 6 years after 2008 the Winston First base is thus about 3% due to natural attrition. He still needs to find another 40,000 mugs to reach the 112,000 threshold. The possible mugs are more likely to go with the Conservatives as they have a leader who is in good health and likely to stand in 2014 and all the way through to 2017 unlike Winston.

          • lprent 12.4.1.2.2

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?

            Basically NZF targets specific groups well. I suspect at present it is growing its voter base because the Key government is making politicians look very evil again. The only problem they probably have this election is succession planning…

      • alwyn 12.4.2

        Yeah, well I did assume that the Maori party would have trouble holding on to 3 electorate seats when both Tariana and Pita quit. Your approach can however easily be argued.

      • Zorr 12.4.3

        +hand up

        However, I think you are being generous there because ACT is unlikely to survive (you have to calculate their odds of still existing before you even include them in the figures :P) and UF not collapsing under the weight of all that hypocrisy and hair.

        Then, on top of that, you have the Maori Party bleeding support and up against a resurgent Labour.

        I would say that the only figures that matter at all (and that requires us to think polls are anything other than self serving figures :P) at the moment are Nat vs Lab/Green because the more minor parties are in such precarious positions that until we get closer to the election we will have no idea of how it will turn out for them.

        • weka 12.4.3.1

          Whereas I think it’s a mistake to assume this is a two horse race. The election will be decided by the parties smaller than LG/N. Better to be thinking that through now I reckon.

          Also, RM says if an election were held today, hence the inclusion of ACT. I’m happy to take them out if someone makes the case (just put Bad’s hypothesis in the calculator, see above. It’s minus ACT, plus a rejigging of the Maori vote). But I don’t think we can assume or rely on the disappearance of UF. Or NZF. Unfortunately.

          • bad12 12.4.3.1.1

            Weka, on the numbers it is entirely in the hands of Labour/Green whether they occupy the treasury Benches after November 2014,

            This would tho i suggest require that both Labour and the Green’s party strategists convince them of a number of positions both party’s must take at that election,

            The first,(and one i do not believe for a moment will occur), would be for Labour to contest neither Te Tai Tokerau or Waiariki only campaigning for the Party votes in those two electorates,

            The second which i have already mentioned a couple of times is for the Labour and Green Party’s to identify all their voters in the electorates which the ACT and Conservative Parties have been given the ‘nod’ by National and campaign directly to such supporters that they vote strategically for the National candidate,(of course National might stymie such electioneering by simply not standing a candidate),

            Had Labour/Green candidates convinced 2000 odd voters of the above in the Epsom 2011 ballot,(out of a combined 7000 and something votes), the Act Party would have been toast as Banks only sneaked past National’s candidate by 2000 odd votes…

        • alwyn 12.4.3.2

          If we do as you say than we can just as easily say that we shouldn’t take any notice of this poll at all. One cannot say I will take the numbers that I like and ignore the ones I don’t like and have any valid discussion at all. Of course we can’t take much notice of any of the figures a year out but that means why should we take account of the figures for any of the major parties either.
          Let’s say National go up to 48%, Labour down to 31% and the Green party to 9%. Nobody else gets an electorate seat of 5%.
          On the other hand why bother. Just take the numbers that this poll gives us and see what they imply.

          • Zorr 12.4.3.2.1

            The point that I am trying to make is that there are a lot of noise in polls. In this election (as opposed to some of the past elections), all the minor parties have serious issues that are external to just winning votes. If you want me to list them, I can… here I go

            Mana – as much as they could strengthen Labours chances by winning an electorate seat, it requires Labour to stand aside to make it a sure thing and that is unlikely

            Maori Party – are they retiring? Are they holding on for just one more election? Who the hell knows – I doubt they even know themselves. Add in to that they have effectively sold their soul to National for the baubles and that 3% may just disappear in to the ether if they fail to win electorate seats.

            ACT – need to John Banks to not go to jail and still win an electorate seat

            UF – who knows what Dunne is up to? Add in to that the fact he may have completely spent his political capital now – once again, needs to win an electorate seat

            Conservatives – once again, need to find an electorate and then convince them that a carpet bagging Christian who has cut a deal with John Key is someone worth voting for

            NZF – need to get over 5% – but, as lprent rightly pointed out, their constituency is only growing so maybe I should up their chances

            However, apart from NZF every single party is relying on winning an electorate seat and hoping that a contender (because, lets face it, a strong one isn’t necessarily needed) doesn’t come along to push them off their perch. This is why I feel that the minor parties aren’t worth placing weight on at this point until things shake out further.

            • alwyn 12.4.3.2.1.1

              There are some interesting things there I agree
              A couple of comments I would make are.
              Mana. I would have thought that Hone was safe but that he didn’t have coat tails and would remain by himself. I don’t know that Labour would really want to work with him though and may go all out to beat him.

              Maori I think Flavell is safe. and one electorate is all they need.

              ACT I don’t know. They may be dead but they can probably rake up enough money and a decent candidate to keep Epsom. It doesn’t need to be Banks though.

              UF Dunne is a very, very good electorate MP and he is still keen. I don’t think Labour can beat him and I don’t think National is going to try to hard.

              Conservatives God knows. They at least have the money to compete with the tax-payer funded campaigns (unlimited travel etc) of the parties that are already in Parliament but I don’t really think they’ll make it.

              NZF This is the interesting one. I am beginning to wonder whether Winnie, and let’s face it he IS the party, has the energy anymore. If you look at the Roy Morgan poll numbers he is slipping a bit. In 2012 they got 5% or more in 18 of 22 polls. In 2013 they have only got 5% in 10 of 22 polls. I think that they may slip below the radar again.
              In 2012 they averaged 5.3% but in 2013 only 4.5% in each poll.

        • bad12 12.4.3.3

          ACT may yet also have one more twist in the electoral wind befor the noose finally shuts off the oxygen supply,

          i had a listen to ACT Party Prez John Boscowan talking on RadioNZ this afternoon where Banks’s chances were being discussed, altho He didn’t directly say so in words i get the distinct impression that Boscowan was intimating that ‘the Board’ just might cut Banks loose as their Epsom candidate no matter what happens with the ‘trial’

          Given a ‘cleaner’ candidate and another ‘nod’ towards them from Slippery the PM, the Actors might still, sadly, have a last gasp in them…

  13. Mike S 13

    Speaking of polls, how do they poll people?

    The reason I ask is that I’ve never been asked in a poll and neither has anyone I know or anyone they know. Which seems a bit odd. Do they only phone landlines? Or do they stop and ask people in the street?

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      on the RM results page they say they contact both landlines and mobiles…a few commentators here on The Standard have been rung by polling companies before. I have too, but quite a few years back now, and none recently.

      • Mike S 13.1.1

        Thanks CV. Any idea how they get the mobile numbers? I ask this because in my case, there’s no connection between my name and my mobile number as I use a prepaid. This is the same with pretty much all of my friends, that is no landline and a prepaid mobile.

        Looking at what I’ve written, that’s probably a fairly good reason why none of us has ever been involved in a poll. D’oh !

        Still, I’d be interested to see how big of a slice of eligible voters they are missing out and particularly whether or not those people are generally similar in terms of parties they vote for. Myself and most of the people I know are what I guess you’d call left leaning voters and in my opinion, that would be the case with most people in the same situation. (Just a guess obviously but to be honest, the few right leaning voters I associate with tend to have landlines and / or mobile accounts.)

        I could easily see a large number of the not so well off having no landline and at most a prepaid mobile. Again just my opinion but I would assume the majority of these people would also vote for leftish parties.

        I guess I’m trying to figure out why National has such a high polling percentage as I literally don’t know anyone who would vote for National if there were an election tomorrow. Even Dad, who has voted national all his life without even thinking about it, has said he wouldn’t vote for John Key again.

        • Andrew 13.1.1.1

          One approach is to randomly generate numbers within prefixes. Then connection test them. Then sample the connected numbers randomly and in proportion to prefix sizes (this is known as RDD sampling).

          According to a tweet I saw, RM appear to do something similar to this:
          http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/07/15/a-wee-bit-more-info-to-add-to-the-poll-methods-grid/

          Presumably they control somehow for overlap with their landline sample frame – such as screening out most of those they call on cells because they also have a landline (because they are covered by the landline sample frame), or weighting the results, or targeting a certain number who also have landlines and a certain number who don’t.

        • Andrew 13.1.1.2

          When I was at Uni I didn’t know anyone *at all* who supported National (at least nobody told me they did). Now I’m in the private sector I know a lot more people who support National. I think it’s just that my social connections have changed.

          Although some people who post here really hate polls, the thing is, *nobody* knows a representative group of NZers. People might think they do, but they really don’t. You might know a good cross-section by age, gender, location, income, and ethnic group – but what about other things that can influence political preference – such as what movies people have seen, books they have read, socialisation, etc?

          So *good* polls or surveys are a good way we can find out what people very different to ourselves might think.

  14. phil 14

    “We have no right in NZ”. Fisiani, don’t you mean “we have no rights in NZ”. The latter is more accurate. Talk to The Pike River families, Kim Dot Com, Canterbury Regional Council, Christchurch EQ residents, forced council amalgamations, DOC Ruataniwha officers, caregivers of special needs family members, parents of roast buster teenagers, right to swim in unpolluted rivers etc. The so called ‘right’ wing in NZ is far right, it’s just that we have the MSM media telling us that Lab/green is far left. Selling of profit making Assets is far right in my book. As is knowingly despoiling the environment. Not to mention cutting workers rights and taxes of the rich.

  15. McFlock 15

    Tragedy. Wail. Labour with margin of error movement, still in their 30-33% natural level. When oh when will they get the leader I support, the country will jump behind labour then. [Yawn] /sarc

  16. ak 16

    Heads up.

    The Marketing Party knows better than any the importance of leading into the break in election year.

    Hard, hard push on NO required, starting now if not sooner. TV ads, billboards and newsworthy gimmicks please.

    And brace for a most serious distraction: major benny-bash; very, very soon.

  17. Tracey 17

    I wonder how does hooten reconcile his poll with these results. Different demographic? What was the methodology. Does it realky exist?

  18. Tanz 18

    Oh, yay fo Colin Craig, the light at the end of the tunnel, the brigadier that we very much need. Woohoo!!!!

  19. Crunchtime 19

    It really depends on

    1. Labour’s performance in the coming months, particularly Cunliffe of course but I think we need to see a growing sense of unity and for that ugly blue/purple streak to be gently, gradually surgically removed

    2. A growing sense of unity and pragmatism in the strategic thinking between Labour and Green. Not political thinking, not policy thinking, strategic. I think we’ve seen enough in the last few elections to know that politics and policy don’t win elections. Being able to market your policy effectively wins elections.

    Depending on how well Cunliffe, Labour, Turei, Norman and the Greens do at this, and how well the media deals with it (and is dealt with), I think we’ll see a trend upwards and anywhere up to a 10% swing towards Labour/Green. Maybe even more?

    But we gotta be hard-nosed about this.

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    Labour | 11-11
  • Past time to act on warnings about palliative care
    Health officials have been warning the Government about a critical shortage of palliative care specialists for years, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader and Health spokesperson Annette King says. A stocktake carried out for the Ministry of Health shows New Zealand’s end...
    Labour | 10-11
  • Report must spur Government into action
    The soaring cost of domestic violence and child abuse highlight the need for the Government to prioritise and act on the issue, says Labour's spokesperson for Social Development, Sue Moroney.“Findings from the Glenn Inquiry that show the problem is estimated...
    Labour | 10-11
  • Family safety paramount, then urgent review
    Corrections Minister Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga has some serious questions to answer over why a dangerous prison escapee, convicted of further crimes while in jail, managed to abscond while he was on approved temporary release, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.“Phillip...
    Labour | 09-11
  • LVRs a failed experiment from Bill English
    Loan to value mortgage restrictions are a failed experiment from Bill English to tame Auckland house prices, that have caused collateral damage to first home buyers and other regions, says Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “The possible end of LVR...
    Labour | 09-11
  • Govt books getting worse as economy slows
    National’s economic credibility is under serious scrutiny with its search for surplus becoming harder due to an economy far too reliant on the dairy industry, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker. “National promised New Zealanders would get into surplus by...
    Labour | 06-11
  • Kiwis in pain because of Government underfunding
    New research showing one in three people needing elective surgery are being denied publicly-funded operations shows the Government must properly fund the health sector, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “For almost two years Labour has been warning about the...
    Labour | 06-11
  • National’s promised surplus looking doubtful
    Budget figures for the first quarter of the financial year released today by Treasury show the Government's goal of achieving a budget surplus is looking doubtful, the Green Party said today."National has staked its credibility on achieving a budget surplus...
    Greens | 06-11
  • Kevin Hague speaks on the Gambling Amendment Bill (No 3)
    I rise to give this speech on behalf of Denise Roche, who handles the gambling portfolio for the Green Party. This bill deals with class 4 gambling—pokies in pubs and clubs—and it is the result of changes that were suggested...
    Greens | 06-11
  • Kevin Hague speaks on the Health (Protection) Amendment Bill
    I would like to start off where the previous speaker left off, on the issue of balancing rights or balancing harms. All law is in some way a restriction of personal liberty. That is the point of law. When we...
    Greens | 06-11
  • Joyce backs away from yet another target
    Steven Joyce has backed away from two targets in two days, refusing to acknowledge that his Government has an unambitious aim to get unemployment down to 4 per cent in 11 years’ time, says Labour Associate Finance spokesperson David Clark....
    Labour | 06-11
  • Pacific peoples incomes and jobs falling under National
    The Minister of Pacific Peoples is attempting to bury the ugly facts of Pacific unemployment and income levels worsening since National took office in 2008, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson, Su’a William Sio. “If the Minister doesn’t acknowledge how bad...
    Labour | 06-11
  • Annette King? Annette King?? Surely not Annette King!
    I’m not often surprised at the goings on in the Labour Party but I was gobsmacked to see Andrew Little has appointed Annette King as Deputy Leader of the parliamentary Labour Party. I had idly assumed the role would go to Adhern...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • New Shadow Cabinet – Little does more in 6 days than Goff, Shearer & ...
    New Zealanders do not respect intelligence, they respect confidence. Cunliffe beat Key in the debates, but it didn’t matter because NZers don’t respect the debate, they respect the tone. Our anti-intellecuatlism runs deeper than most with our reverse-egalitarianism. The chip...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • This weeks Waatea news column – The myths white people tell themselves
      This weeks Waatea news column – The myths white people tell themselves...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • The irony of backlash to petrol stations charging workers for stolen petrol
    You have to laugh at NZers sometimes. you really do. The outrage that has been sparked by news that workers at petrol stations are charged for stolen petrol is one of those perfect examples of a delicious irony most NZers...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • A Dishonest “Countering Terrorist Fighters Bill”
    Wouldn’t you think a Countering Terrorist Fighters Bill would actually mention “terrorist fighters” in its text? The Bill, as released yesterday, does not. It’s simply another generalised counter-terrorism exercise giving extra surveillance powers to the Security Intelligence Service and enabling...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • How biased is the media? A Patrick Gower case study
    . . . Isn’t it interesting that Patrick Gower – who made his partisan feelings crystal clear on Twitter on 29 May with this extraordinary outburst;  “Lalia Harré – you make me feel sick by how you are rorting MMP...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • The C Word
    It isn’t even December but the decorations are up and the ads are on the telly. I am a genuine Grinch come this time of year, so when the conversation at work turned to everyone’s holidays plans I may have...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • Honouring the Ampatuan massacre victims as fight for justice goes on
    A grim reminder of the Maguindanao, or Ampatuan, massacre on 23 November 2014. Photo: DanRogayan A TOP Filipino investigative journalist will be speaking about the “worst attack” on journalists in history and her country’s culture of impunity in a keynote...
    The Daily Blog | 23-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – what are they afraid of: the erosion of democ...
    Today the Hamilton City Council has put on a big party to celebrate the 150th anniversary of European colonisation of the area.  There have been a series of events during the year to mark this event, including a civic ceremony. ...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • #JohnKeyHistory
    John Key has done it again. This week our lovely Prime Minister has showed us how little he knows about the history of the country he is supposed to be running. Apparently “New Zealand was settled peacefully”. Was it really?...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • G20 growth targets and growth model offer more problems than they solve
    At the recent G20 in Brisbane, member countries agreed to accelerate growth to an additional 2% on top of current trajectories. But ongoing public sector cuts, asset sales, and reducing workers’ rights indicate that at least part of the growth...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Bill Courtney – Charter Schools: The Shroud of Secrecy Contin...
    The Ministry of Education yesterday released another batch of information relating to the five existing charter schools and the four new ones proposed for opening in 2015. As we have seen before, the release of such information, often requested under...
    The Daily Blog | 22-11
  • EXCLUSIVE: Campaign reflection, Laila Harré reaching out for radical minds
    Today I’ve announced that I will be stepping down from the Internet Party leadership in December. This will happen once options for the future have been developed for discussion and decision among members. My absolute focus in this election was...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • The Ebola crisis, capitalism and the Cuban medical revolution
    “Ebola emerged nearly 40 years ago. Why are clinicians still empty-handed, with no vaccines and no cure? Because Ebola has been, historically, geographically confined to poor African nations. The R&D incentive is virtually non-existent. A profit-driven industry does not invest...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • MEDIA WATCH: TVNZ Reveals Insane Deadlines For Māori and Pacific Island Pr...
    Last Tuesday, November 18th, TVNZ requested proposals from producers for the four Māori and Pacific Island programmes they will no longer be making in-house. Marae, Waka Huia, Fresh and Tagata Pasifika will keep their existing names, existing formats and existing...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • The Daily Blog Breakfast Club Ep. 1
    TDB Video, Live from Verona Cafe on K-Rd, Auckland – a weekly current affairs show with TDB Editor Martyn Bradbury. This week’s panel: Chris Trotter & Selwyn Manning.The issues: 1 – What now for the New Labour leader? 2 –...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • Performance-demonstration at Auckland’s High Court to demand justice for ...
    People outraged at the lack of justice in the so-called ‘Roast Busters’ case and 99% of other rape cases in this country are holding a visually powerful mass action at the Auckland High Court at 1 o’clock on Saturday. They...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • IES vote may weaken defense of public education
    PPTA announced today that secondary teachers have voted to include the IES (Investing in Education Success) as a variation to their collective employment agreement with the government. At one level it’s an understandable decision by PPTA members because through engaging in a consultation...
    The Daily Blog | 21-11
  • NZ History lesson on Planet Key – the lies white people tell themselves
    John Key’s bizarre claims about our ‘peaceful history’ comes across like the apartheid history of South Africa where white people discovered Africa first… New Zealand ‘settled peacefully’ – PM New Zealand was “settled peacefully” by the British, the prime minister...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • Universal Basic Income and Labour Policy
    On Radio New Zealand’s None-to-Noon on Wednesday (19 November), new Labour leader Andrew Little intimated that he would like to put Universal Basic Income (UBI) on his policy agenda (What policy changes will Andrew Little usher in?) Predictably Kathryn Ryan, despite being...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • The New Notes : They Ain’t Mint
    Hulk Queen Angry. Hulk Queen smash.   Yesterday, the Reserve Bank announced its new designs for our banknotes. Now, I’ve historically been pretty sketch about this entire process; variously feeling affronted that the government could find eighty million dollars to fund a...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • MSM under-mining of new Labour Leader already begun?
    . . It did not take long. In fact, on the same day that Andrew Little won the Labour leadership*, the first media reporter was already asking if he would be stepping down  if Labour failed to lift in the...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Simon Buckingham – invisible disability voices
    Today I am ranting. The Disability Advisory Group has been announced by Auckland Council. This is the body that represents the interests and views of people with disabilities in Auckland. Whilst I would not have applied this time as I...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Andrew Little
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Andrew Little...
    The Daily Blog | 20-11
  • Why labelling Little as a ‘Unionist’ is a joke and how he beats Key in ...
    The line being used to attack Andrew Little as a ‘Unionist’ is just an absurd joke, and it comes from people who clearly don’t understand the modern NZ Union movement. Andrew ran the EPM Bloody U, they are easily one...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • 5AA Australia – Labour’s New Leader + China’s President In New Zealan...
    Recorded on 20/11/14 – Captured Live on Ustream.tv. 5AA’s Peter Godfrey and Selwyn Manning.ISSUE ONE: The New Zealand Labour Party has elected its new leader, the vote going to a third round after no clear outright winner was found in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • Did Roger Sutton think he was running the Rock Radio Station?
    Visible G-String Fridays? Full body hugs? Jokes about who you would and wouldn’t have sex with? Honey? Sweety? It’s like Roger thought he was running the Rock Radio Station, not a Government Public Service department set up to rebuild a...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • US Politics
      US Politics...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • Amnesty International – The conversation that needs to be had with China
    Caption: Police officer watching Hong Kong pro-democracy march, 01 July 2014 © Amnesty International    Yesterday’s edition of The New Zealand Herald features an open letter to all New Zealander’s from Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China. Along...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • GUEST BLOG: Patrick O’Dea – “Liar”
    LIAR! ‘Privatised social housing to benefit tenants’ English “Housing Corp was a poor performer and about a third of its housing stock was the wrong size, in poor condition and in the wrong place. That stock was worth about $5...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • Too Close For Comfort: Reflections on Andrew Little’s narrow victory over...
    THE TRAGIC SCREENSHOT of “Gracinda” in defeat bears eloquent testimony to the bitter disappointment of the Grant Robertson-led faction of the Labour Party. And, yes, ‘Party’ is the right word. The Robertson machine has now extended its influence well beyond...
    The Daily Blog | 19-11
  • How to defeat child poverty
      How to defeat child poverty...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Little’s Shadow Cabinet
    Now the horror of trying to pacify the factions begins. The only thing Little’s new shadow cabinet must do is create the pretence of unity. The reason voters didn’t flock to Labour wasn’t the bloody CGT or Superannuation, it was...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • A pilgrimage with my sister – Rethink the System
    We’ve both wanted to do a pilgrimage for many years. But, unlike many modern pilgrims, we wanted to be pilgirms in our own country and get closer to our communities, rather than seek greater distance from them. We are both...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Lack of policy ambition is Andrew Little’s main problem
    I’ve met Andrew Little a few times and he’s a pleasant man who will make a reasonable job leading what the Labour Party has become in recent decades. He will preside over a much less divided caucus and will be...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Journos, film makers, media freedom advocates join Asia-Pacific political j...
    A candlelight vigil for the 58 victims of the 2009 Maguindanao massacre – 32 of them media people. Still no justice for them today. Renowned investigative journalists, film makers, academics and media freedom campaigners from across the Asia-Pacific region will...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • And the new Labour Leader is ZZZZZZZZZZ
    The victory lap by Caucus over the members choice of Cunliffe has ended and the new leader of the Labour Party is Andrew Little. Yawn. The dullness and caution of the latest Leadership race will be served well by Andrew,...
    The Daily Blog | 18-11
  • Allow the Facts to Get in the Way of the Neolib Stories
    One of the weaknesses of the political left in New Zealand over the last 30 years has been to allow the neoliberal storytellers to get away with lots of fibs and half-fibs. On TVNZ’s Q+A on 16 November, in a...
    The Daily Blog | 17-11
  • Defending The Boomers: A Response to Chloe King
    THE BABY-BOOM GENERATION (49-68 year-olds) currently numbers just under a quarter of New Zealand’s population. Even so, there is a pervasive notion that the generation of New Zealanders born between the end of World War II and the mid-1960s exercises...
    The Daily Blog | 17-11
  • This weeks Waatea news column – Waitangi Tribunal ruling enshrines Treaty...
      This weeks Waatea news column – Waitangi Tribunal ruling enshrines Treaty as a living document...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Key now says SAS will be needed to protect ‘trainers’ behind the wire
    Well, well, well. What do we have here? Government could send SAS to Iraq New Zealand’s elite Special Air Service (SAS) could be deployed to Iraq to protect Kiwi troops sent to train local forces. Prime Minister John Key confirmed...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Do You Want to Build a Meth Lab? (Frozen x Breaking Bad Parody)
    Do You Want to Build a Meth Lab? (Frozen x Breaking Bad Parody)...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Soft soap for the rich – harsh taxes for the poor
    It’s no surprise to see New Zealand has one of the world’s lowest tax rates for the rich and the superrich. A survey by the global accounting network UHY shows New Zealand’s highest tax rates are lower than even Australia,...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • Phillip Smith and the rehabilitation process
    The dominant media narrative in horrible murder cases is that the perpetrator is unlikely ever to be rehabilitated. When it appears the offender may get parole the media turns first to family members of the victim who commonly (and understandably)...
    The Daily Blog | 16-11
  • The Nation review: Finlayson’s terrifying definition of who is on terror ...
    Terrifying Nation today on TV3. Chris Finlayson is on justifying the Government’s Muslim fear mongering and extension of even more surveillance powers. It was jaw dropping. Finlayson says ‘alienated people with a chip on their shoulder’ is the threshold to get...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • A brief word on The Block NZ
    Is it just me or did The Block manage to sum up everything that is wrong about our culture and economy? Fetishised property speculation as mass entertainment in a country of homelessness & poverty. I wonder if State House tenants...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • Waitangi Tribunal ruling
    That spluttering choking sound of a thousand rednecks being informed Maori still have sovereignty is a hilarious cacophony of stupid… Crown still in charge: Minister Chris Finlayson on Waitangi Treaty ruling The Waitangi Tribunal’s finding that Maori chiefs who signed...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • A brief word on Phillip Smith
    We can arrest student loan & fine defaulters at the airport – but not convicted child molesting killers? Before we ban manufactured ISIS ‘terrorists’ from having passports, how about we just manage to stop child molesting killers from fleeing first?...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • Free Me From Religion
          The meeting begins – or at least it’s supposed to begin – but someone interrupts proceedings. She wants everyone to pray with their heads bowed while she can “thank our Father who art in Heaven.” I close...
    The Daily Blog | 14-11
  • Key capitulates on TPPA while big money NZ set up propaganda fund
    So Key has capitulated on the ‘gold standard’ of free trade deals… The primary objective for New Zealand at Apec was to see some urgency injected into the TPP talks and to keep leaders aiming for a high quality deal....
    The Daily Blog | 13-11
  • The Warehouse & Noel Leeming Praised for Principled Stand
    Family First NZ is congratulating The Warehouse and Noel Leeming for reinforcing their ‘family-friendly values’ by removing R18 games and DVD’s from its shelves, and is calling on other retailers including JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman and Dick Smith...
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • PM’s Post-Cab on Iain Rennie, China and the Smith Inquiry
    In a press conference held today in Wellington, Prime Minister John Key answered questions regarding Iain Rennie’s potential resignation, the independent inquiry into the Smith/Traynor escape, and recent trade deals with China....
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Safety Week 2014 focused on a safe summer
    ACC’s annual Safety Week kicks off today. With summer just around the corner, Safety Week this year is focusing on keeping safe when playing sport, enjoying recreational activities or drinking alcohol....
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Safety focus during motorcycle month
    As the Central District Police annual Month of Motorcycles campaign cruises into its second week, the results so far have been positive with many motorcyclists playing their part to keep our roads safe....
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Insane Law Perverting Course of Justice: SST
    Insane Law Perverting Course of Justice: SST The Sensible Sentencing Trust is slamming a decision which may acquit a Whakatane offender of serious dangerous driving charges....
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Taranaki Base Hospital draped in white ribbons
    Taranaki Base Hospital draped in white ribbons to show violence towards women is never OK...
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Family Violence Intervention Team uses social media
    Family Violence Intervention Team uses social media to say “no” to domestic violence Everyone has the right to feel safe at home. Many do not. One in three partnered New Zealand women report having experienced physical and/or sexual intimate partner...
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • Smoke Alarms in Rental properties
    TPA says recent calls for mandatory smoke alarm installations in rental properties is an opportunity for all parties to come together to improve the safety and quality of rental housing....
    Scoop politics | 24-11
  • CTU will not engage in Governments sham consultation process
    Today the CTU has sent a letter to Prime Minister John Key articulating serious concerns about both the content and the rushed process the Government has clearly signalled it intends to follow to progress the Countering Terrorist Fighters Legislation...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Job vacancies steady in October
    The number of skilled job vacancies advertised online remained steady in October across most industry groups and occupations, according to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s latest Jobs Online report....
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • 600 Slaves And Counting on New Zealand Soil
    The 2014 Global Slavery Index has just been released, and buried within its pages is New Zealand’s growing issue of human exploitation and slavery. When taken in conjunction with the US State Department’s Trafficking in Persons Report 2014,...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Statement from Police Commissioners of Australia and NZ
    Media Statement from Police Commissioners of Australia and New Zealand: Police Commissioners take a stand against violence against women and children...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • NZ Police Commissioner makes a stand against Family Violence
    New Zealand Police Commissioner Mike Bush has joined with his Australian Police Commissioner colleagues at Parliament House in Canberra this morning to take a stand on violence against women and children....
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Amnesty International campaigns for end to domestic violence
    Amnesty International will be making a donation of over $500 to Aviva (formerly known as Women’s Refuge Christchurch) at the conclusion of Tuesday’s inner city march against domestic violence....
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Waka Hourua celebrates what’s working in suicide prevention
    On 19 and 20 November, Māori and Pasifika national suicide prevention programme Waka Hourua held its first national hui-fono in Auckland. The theme was Whakarauika Mai: Bringing Communities Together to Prevent Suicide in Aotearoa. ...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Domestic violence problem bigger than Sky Tower
    Domestic violence problem bigger than Sky Tower SKYCITY’s Sky Tower in Auckland will be lit up in white on Monday evening Nov 25th at 10pm, on the eve of White Ribbon Day. The anti-domestic violence network SAFTINET (Safer Auckland Families...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • State Services Commissioner ‘unfit for the job’ says Little
    State Services Commissioner ‘unfit for the job’ says Little The new Labour leader Andrew Little has called for the State Services Commissioner Iain Rennie to be stood down after his handling of the Roger Sutton sexual harassment case. "The idea...
    Scoop politics | 23-11
  • Patrick Gower interviews Laila Harre
    Patrick Gower interviews Laila Harre Headlines: Laila Harre to quit as Internet Party leader by Christmas when the party has completed its review, but would love to return to parliament Says party considering options for its future including winding...
    Scoop politics | 22-11
  • Lisa Owen interviews Labour leader Andrew Little
    Lisa Owen interviews Labour leader Andrew Little Headlines: Andrew Little says the shape of his front-bench for the 2017 election may not be clear until the end of next year Indicates next week’s appointments may be temporary: “So I may...
    Scoop politics | 22-11
  • Phillip John Smith – statement
    Police and the New Zealand Embassy in Brasilia are aware of a decision from the Brazil Federal Court requiring the deportation of Phillip Smith within 10 days. Further assessment is required to ensure there is a full understanding of this...
    Scoop politics | 22-11
  • Green’s ‘not speaking out about human rights abuses in China
    Right to Life challenges Russell Norman the co-leader of the Green Party to explain why, he was prepared to ask Prime Minister John Key to talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping about human rights abuses in countries bordering China but...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Goodfellow congratulates Key on IDU election
    Goodfellow congratulates Key on IDU election National Party President Peter Goodfellow has congratulated Prime Minister John Key on his election today as Chairman of the International Democrat Union (IDU)....
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Taxpayers’ Union Congratulates PM on IDU Appointment
    The Taxpayers’ Union is today congratulating Rt. Hon. John Key on becoming the Chair of the International Democrat Union , as former Australian Prime Minister John Howard retires from the role after 12 years. Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • High demand for Consumer NZ’s “Do Not Knock” stickers
    Consumer NZ has distributed nearly 100,000 “Do Not Knock” stickers since the launch of its campaign to fight back against dodgy door-to-door sellers.The “Do Not Knock” campaign was launched on 3 November 2014. Free “Do Not Knock” stickers...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Phillip Smith decision still pending
    Detective Superintendent Mike Pannett is returning to Washington DC where he will continue to closely monitor a pending decision from the Brazilian authorities on the process to return Phillip Smith to New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • High Court demonstration to demand justice
    People outraged at the lack of justice in the so-called ‘Roast Busters’ case and 99% of other rape cases in this country are holding a visually powerful mass action at the Auckland High Court at 1 o’clock on Saturday. They...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • NZ Society Wins Global Award For Fighting Animal Testing
    New Zealand banning animal testing of legal highs has been acknowledged with an award given in London. The New Zealand Anti-Vivisection Society (NZAVS) was awarded the 2014 LUSH Prize for lobbying against animal testing. The prize was given at the...
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • Poor govt advice to workers on petrol station drive-offs
    The New Zealand Council of Trade Unions has raised concerns with the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment ('MBIE') regarding their reported advice to workers about the petrol station drive away issue....
    Scoop politics | 21-11
  • New Ombudsman opinion
    The Ombudsman has published his opinion on a complaint concerning the Police refusal to release information about a charging decision....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Kindergarten support staff achieve pay rise in tough climate
    The valuable contribution of kindergarten support staff has been recognised with a pay increase, despite the significant funding cuts that the kindergarten associations are experiencing....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Democracy and Conservative Religion: The Case of Islam
    “Is Islam compatible with democracy?” is a frequently-asked question. Recent rethinking of secularism and democracy have opened up new possibilities to think about religion and democracy. This question is important particularly in the case...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • NZ fiscal watchdog needed to guard the public purse
    New Zealand needs tighter fiscal rules and an independent watchdog to improve the quality of government spending and reduce the risk of a return to deficit spending as the country’s population ages, if not before....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • NZSMI disappointed ANZTPA proposal shelved
    November 20, 2014: Consumer healthcare products industry body, the New Zealand Self-Medication Industry Association (SMI) says it is disappointed Government has once again shelved plans to create one medicines regulatory agency for both New Zealand and Australia....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Democracy Action Welcomes Tauranga Vote
    Responding to Tauranga Council’s unanimous vote not to establish separate Council seats on the basis of ethnicity, Lee Short, Democracy Action founder says: “The establishment of a Maori ward would have damaged the relationship between Maori and...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Employer caught abusing new ‘teabreaks law’
    Employer caught abusing new ‘teabreaks law’ to exploit workers The government passed the controversial ‘teabreaks’ legislation only a few weeks ago and already Unite Union has caught an employer using this law as an excuse for ill-treating their...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • FGC response to Commerce Commission report
    The New Zealand Food & Grocery Council is not surprised by the Commerce Commission’s findings, given New Zealand’s current legal framework....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Bascand: Brighter Money
    Seeing people’s initial reactions to the new banknote designs is a heartening reminder of what an important role currency plays in our lives, and what a sense of pride and heritage our notes evoke....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • RBNZ releases Brighter Money designs
    New Zealand’s banknotes are getting brighter and better, with the Reserve Bank today unveiling more vibrant and secure banknote designs which will progressively enter circulation later next year....
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • 25 years of children’s rights
    UNICEF and OFC celebrate 25 years of children’s rights with Just Play Sports Days On Universal Children’s Day (20 November) and as part of the Oceania Football Confederation’s (OFC) inaugural President’s Cup, UNICEF will celebrate 25 years of children’s...
    Scoop politics | 20-11
  • Xiamen delegation to Wellington has business focus
    Stronger business, education and cultural ties with our Chinese partners will be the focus when a 20-strong government and business delegation led by Xiamen Mayor Mr Liu Keqing which visits Wellington tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Warriors promote White Ribbon Day message
    Warriors promote White Ribbon Day message Shine and Orakei Health Services On Tuesday, the Vodafone Warriors will promote the White Ribbon Day message to the community at Eastridge Shopping Centre, Mission Bay. The Warriors are supporting their charity...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Superannuitants to protest unethical investments
    A delegation of Auckland superannuitants will deliver a protest-card petition and protest letter to the New Zealand Super Fund this Thursday afternoon to call on the fund to divest from companies which support the Israeli occupation of Palestinian...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Manukau job cuts ‘running the place into the ground’
    Manukau Institute of Technology (MIT) confirmed to its staff yesterday that 54 jobs will go before Christmas....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Newcore Looks Pretty Rotten for Ratepayers
    Responding to the NZ Herald report that the IT system commissioned by Auckland Council to consolidate the eight systems the Super City inherited from its precursor councils could be facing a budget blowout of $100 million, Taxpayers’ Union Spokesman Ben...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Accountability following quake response inquiry not achieved
    Lessons still need to be learned from the search and rescue efforts following the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, a leading New Zealand lawyer, Nigel Hampton QC, says....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Our kids say: We are failing in our duty to protect them
    Our kids say: We are failing in our duty to protect them More than a quarter of Kiwi kids say children’s right to be safe and protected isn’t being upheld in New Zealand, identifying protection from violence, abuse and murder...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • PARS & Turuki Health Care collaborate on health and services
    Auckland-based PARS (People at Risk Solutions) have partnered with the Turuki Health Care Trust, to offer improved healthcare services to those in need. PARS works closely with former prisoners, providing mentoring, housing, and social services to ensure...
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Children’s Plea
    A plea has been sent to all Members of Parliament, regardless of party affiliation, to accord urgency and priority to children's issues. These issues include vulnerability, safety and childhood poverty....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Treasury off track in search for sound policies
    Treasury is unlikely to find the ideas it is looking for to improve outcomes for children while its primary driver is cost-cutting, says Child Poverty Action Group....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
  • Commission calls for answers on handling of CERA harassment
    EEO Commissioner Dr Jackie Blue is deeply concerned about the way in which the State Services Commission has handled sexual allegations made against CERA chief executive Roger Sutton this week and is calling for answers....
    Scoop politics | 19-11
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