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Too close to call

Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments
Categories: conservative party, Economy, greens, labour, national, polls, uncategorized - Tags:

Roy Morgan November poll

The latest Roy Morgan poll results are out.

Labour is up 2% to 34%, National down 1% to 44.5%, Greens down 1.5% to 11% and the Conservatives are on 2%. Labour/Green is just ahead of National.

And Matthew Hooton has tweeted about Labour/Green being on 49% in a recent private poll.

After the leadership campaign and with the initial effects from the Cunliffe honeymoon waning the lift is welcome.  Labour has been taking the fight to National on issues such as crony capitalism, Pike River and the very unpopular asset sale process which is not releasing the money that was promised.  This appears to be working.

National is looking rattled and their very public overtures to the Conservative Party is a clear sign that without a viable support party they are toast.

But there is a long way to go until the next election …

111 comments on “Too close to call”

  1. AmaKiwi 1

    I am so proud to finally see a steady flow of mainstream media news stories: “Labour says . . . ,” “Cunliffe says . . . ”

    Hardly a day goes by without a Labour news story in the headlines. For too long the small Greens caucus had to carry on the fight by themselves.

    The Left is on the road to victory.

  2. fisiani 2

    This post must surely win November’s best spin of bad news into good award.
    It could easily have read “Labour cannibalising Green vote and Winston First still nowhere and Mana not even registering at all. National still with nearly 1 in 2 support and with likely return of ACT and UF and Maori party and a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s and all this before the amazing economic results of 2014.

    • gobsmacked 2.1

      “a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s”

      How?

      • amirite 2.1.1

        He thinks there are enough numbers of anti-fluoride chemtrail believing-nutters who will vote for Crazy Colin in his electorate, which in turn will bring 3 more MPs on his coat tails. I can’t think of anything else as an explanation.

      • fisiani 2.1.2

        5% gets you 6 MP’s 2.5% with a seat gets you 3 MP’s. Simple maths.

        • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1

          Again, how does he win a seat?

          “Simple maths” shows us that 99% of people on social media have now decided he’s a joke. Including many National voters.

          Or are you deliberately avoiding the news?

          For Fisiani …

          https://twitter.com/search?q=colin%20craig&src=typd&f=realtime

          • fisiani 2.1.2.1.1

            95% could think Colin Craig was a joke and he would still get another 5 fellow jokers. Remember that over 93% thought Winston crazier than batshit.

            • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1.1.1

              Please, please keep believing in Colin Craig. Please keep believing that he can’t harm National.

              Third time … what seat is he going to win?

              • fisiani

                The one that National want him to win Duh.

                • gobsmacked

                  OK, Fisiani, show us your strategic genius.

                  During the election campaign, the media will follow Craig around, and he will casually declare that “herpes is God’s punishment” or “only perverts get divorced” or “every kid needs a gun”.

                  How will Key respond?

                  He can’t say “it’s nothing to do with National”. You’ve just given him a National seat.

                  • fisiani

                    He will never be given a seat by National. He will have to win one.

                  • mickysavage

                    Or how about “I am aware of the theory that chemicals are being released at high altitude for some nefarious purpose but don’t know whether there is any truth in this or not” …

                    How will Key respond to that?

                • David H

                  And the Government lasts for about 5 minutes. We would be a bigger laughing stock than Italy for election hijinks and Crazy politicians.

                  Yeah Fisi the Nats are going to spurn him like he’s the poisoned Chalice, once the rest of NZ stop laughing at Key for even thinking of an alliance with the Crazy Conservatives, and Christian nutters.

    • Rogue Trooper 2.2

      while all this is hilarious fizz, you are definitely pushing manure up an incline with a toothpick :-D

    • Ad 2.3

      Well named, Fisiani.

    • aerobubble 2.4

      Mana, what gives? why do small parties do that? Have one face. Looks what happened to ACT with just one face, and when that face falls flat on itself. Whats with Winston, same deal, the also rans are too weak so as to not to offend the dotty old guy ramblings. The only party outside of the two mainstream, that has is the Greens, because any muggins can contest the leadership. If I were Mana I’d dump Hone and put up a meaningful candidate in that seat, that’ll spin National plans into crisis.

      Run a Green in the Cromandal (or better Dunnes seat) uncontested by Labour, and add salt to National wounds. How hard would it be to say Dunne voted against asset sales over and over.

      Its called Politics and so being interesting, confident means spinning the wheel.

      • David H 2.4.1

        And it wouldn’t be hard for labour to pull out of Dunne’s seat and ask their voters to vote in the Green Candidate. And thats how simple it is.

      • alwyn 2.4.2

        “Run a Green in Coromandel uncontested by Labour”
        Not the greatest idea really. The people of the Coromandel aren’t quite that stupid.
        In the 2011 General Election the votes went as follows.
        Delahunty (Green) 5,660
        Kinimonth (Labour) 5,831
        Simpson (National) 18,571
        So even if every single Labour voter, in the absence of a Labour candidate, were to vote for the Green candidate that would STILL leave National with a majority of more than 7,000.

  3. red blooded 3

    Don’t let’s get overconfident. The Nats have timed things so that we will be back in surplus next year (never mind the service cuts required to reach this goal), the asset sales will be over, the ChCh rebuild will be pumping the economy, there will be all sorts of scaremongering about issues to do with oil (gotta get it out of the ground and pumped away ASAP!), electricity, radical socialism gone mad… There’s a long way to go yet. Can you imagine these guys as a 3rd term government? Scary thought.

    • tc 3.1

      Agree, they are well advised, funded and supported by various MSM outlets and unlike the left don’t care who they trample over or how as long as they get the results.

      Focus on Key, the cronyism deal making and all the BS that has become his stock in trade, without him they are toast as the numbers speak for themselves on asset sales, tax cuts costs etc etc.

      Could start with when are chorus going broke Johnny ? You said it so it must be true o financial genius.

    • mickysavage 3.2

      Yep I can. I thought about emigrating if Labour did not win the 1999 election …

    • jcuknz 3.3

      It will make them a push over for 2017 though and about time then to upset all the little cliques so that new L/G ones can form.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    It’s going to be a frakin’ hard fight next year. Key and English will have lined up a bunch of good news announcements, and don’t be surprised if it includes high profile feel-good corporate activity.

    Also I wanted to see the gender breakdown of these RM figures but I don’t think they have split them out this time.

    • bad12 4.1

      Do you get the impression that Roy was having a little play at ‘spinning’ when the poll separated out the gender balance in the last poll,( the gender issue is one means of ensuring a party could get a negative result in polling depending where in the questioning it is asked, the Reid Poll is said to ask a number of such leading questions while polling befor asking for the persons particular party support)…

    • David H 4.2

      But thats the thing, it’s ALWAYS the fucking Corporates that get the feel good things, while the rest of us just get shat on from a great height.

    • Francis 4.3

      The corporates already have a limited ability to alter the economic conditions to favour certain governments through confidence, etc. Remember the Winter of Discontent?

  5. 2.5 % wont vote for the nutcases in the conservative party, they may be get 1%, but that will be it.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      Could get 2 MPs in quite comfortably, a third maybe. LAB/GR need to head this off by playing in the target electorate real smart.

      • Lanthanide 5.1.1

        Maybe they could just say they aren’t going to compete in an electorate where National is trying to blatantly game the system, and encourage all left-wing voters to vote for National to ensure Colin doesn’t get in.

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          +1

          • David H 5.1.1.1.1

            And if they worked it out between them in all the Nat marginals then maybe the Greens could easily pick up a couple of seats or more, and then you would have a true partnership. Not this ‘win at all costs’ mentality, while targeting your political allies, instead of your political enemies. Tactical is the way to go.

        • Ake ake ake 5.1.1.2

          That is actually quite clever. So, in that case, electorate vote would be National, and party vote would be up to left-wing voters.

    • bad12 5.2

      On Planet Brett Dale how many party voted for the Conservatives in the 2011 election???…

      • Brett Dale 5.2.1

        bad12:

        They were knew, he spent a ton, now that people know what he stands for, there is no way 2% of the public would give him their party vote.

  6. Will@Welly 6

    I was picking National to win next years election hands down, particularly with the snake oil leader Key in charge, and Joyce leading the spin brigade. Now, with David Cunliffe lifting the troops, ably supported by the Greens – who have been well marshalled and organised – things are turning. But you can’t take anything for granted. National is already in election mode. They are preparing for the election now – getting their bag of tricks and sweeteners ready for the giveaways to buy their way back into power.
    Look at ACC. They raised the fees when they came into power, created a crisis, now, with things looking dicey next year, the shackles come off, they’ve managed to unload thousands off their long-term commitments, they’re flush with funds – our money – and now, next year, they’re going to “reward” us. Typical Tories.

  7. Ad 7

    So does anyone in Labour exist other than David Cunliffe?

    This has got to be the laziest front bench I have seen since, ah, David Shearer’s front bench.

    Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally. Goff and King remain honest toilers. Great.

    But as expected Robertson has disappeared without a ripple, Arden is completely M.I.A., local wannabes like Nash or Sepuloni appear only for relentless self-promotion about how much they want to be elected, Dalziell has gone, and the rest fail to make a media mention despite the worst-performing National bench since Bolger’s second term.

    Labour have failed to capitalise on the leadership selection, got very little bump out of Conference, appear to have no media strategy whatsoever, have done seriously no campaigning on its signature opposition campaign (the actual Referendum), have a leader that only does best on overly-orchestrated set pieces…
    …and as a result have polling results that go up and down faster than my girlfriends’ pants.

    Whatever is happening in what poses for Labour HQ, sort your shit out, because National clearly gets it.

    • Rogue Trooper 7.1

      so naughty.

    • bad12 7.2

      Your girlfriends pants going up and down so fast says a hell of a lot more about you than Labour, this could be a premature comment of course but then by the sound of you premature is right up your alley…

    • Colonial Viper 7.3

      National is right into it’s renewal process weeding out the chaff. With even more pro-active announcements before Christmas I reckon.

      • Ad 7.3.1

        National MPs understand the momentum is temporarily with Labour as the Christchurch East by election, and Referendum, gain news traction.

        But they are actively working on a State of the Nation speech for the third week of January that will reflect the largest national lolly-scramble of vote-buying that we have seen for decades.

        It will also have the promise of further tax cuts should they get elected.

        And wait for the sports people they have lined up as candidates: handsome, rich, famous, media-savvy. Trust me their names floated are good.

        They have game-breaking stuff ready to go that will fully extinguish any Labour momentum built this calendar year.

        Shit must be sorted.

    • felix 7.4

      “Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally.”

      Jones needs a fucking muzzle. Seriously, he should literally be made to wear a ball gag in public.

      Just the other day, when asked about something Gareth Hughes (representing the only hope Labour has of governing any time in the next 20 years) had said about deep-sea oil drilling, Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy)

      Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

      Someone in Labour needs to take him out behind the barn and put a bullet in him like any other useless old nag.

      • Morrissey 7.4.1

        Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy): “Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

        I know you’re only joking here, felix, but just in case anyone is wondering, I did NOT transcribe that, nor did I make it up.

        I do share your sentiments about the egregious Shane Jones, however. He is one of the most pompous gits in parliament.

  8. bad12 8

    A good poll, in this one NZfirst are gone from the Parliament, (not that i have any great belief that Winston’s crew are any lower than the 4.8% of the 2008 election), and further consideration of that particular little point would suggest that National are probably in this poll 2% higher than what is credible,

    Given the numbers it simply appears that Slippery has no friends, Banks is a conviction away from occupying a more fitting ‘House’ and i have the sneaking suspicion if the words of Party Prez Boscowan are any guide that either way Banks’s name might be absent from the ballot come November 2014,

    What chance of Slippery and National ‘gaming’ the electorate again in 2014 by giving Colon Craig and the 2% Conservatives the ‘nod’ in a particular electorate, slim if any i would suggest and if Labour and the Green Party have an ounce of ‘smarts’ they will go through any particular electorate National try to gift to Craig and identify every Green and Labour voter convincing them of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

    Where the 3 electorate seats held by the Maori Party go in November 2014 i think on these numbers will make this the crucial question for Labour/Green and Labour needs to definitely hoover up the Maori Parties current 1.5% of the party vote from these electorates,

    Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God,(as opposed to an act of Goofy in the form of Colon Craig),will be needed by Slippery and National to gain a third term in 2014…

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      identify every Green and Labour voter convincing of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

      This.

      Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God

      Labour should help Annette Sykes win that one. They really should.

      “Act of Goofy”…awesome!

      • Craig Y 8.1.1

        All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?

      • Craig Y 8.1.2

        All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?

    • weka 8.2

      The Bad12 version

      L 46
      G 14
      M 2
      =62

      NZF

      MP 0
      UF 1
      N 58
      ACT 0
      =59

    • David H 8.3

      So what botox smooth face will they have for the next election?

  9. dave 9

    half a percent the a quarter there thats all we need to do we chip away small little gains will add up !

  10. Ad 10

    Too close to call unless you are John Key. Because he can count. In fact he only needs to count to 2, (including Speaker), because he’s done it for 5 years.

    No evidence Labour can yet.

    Learn or lose, Labour.

  11. Rogue Trooper 11

    nothin’ to do with the interwebz or social media.Nope.

  12. alwyn 12

    This is really to close to call.
    If you assume, which is quite possible, that the Maori Party, ACT, United Future and Mana all get an electorate seat and that Labour and National take all the others the Parliament would be
    National 57
    Labour 44
    Green 14
    Maori 2
    Mana 1
    ACT 1
    United Future 1
    On the current split of parties that would be Right 61, Left 59. That is a very small win to the current government.
    I used the electoral calculator on the elections.org.nz website.

    • fisiani 12.1

      Should be MP 3
      Centre 59
      Left and Far Left 59

      But you have ignored the 3 4 or 5 Conservatives who are not Right either.
      We have no Right in NZ.

      • alwyn 12.1.1

        I assumed that with Tariana and Pita retiring the Maori party might hold only one or two electorate seats.
        Also I did not assume that the Conservatives would be able to win an electorate seat. That is the most “conservative situation”, which assumes minimum changes.
        One can always make alternative assumptions, and think of all sorts of “ifs”. However you should always remember the old saw. “If my Aunt had balls she would have been my Uncle”

      • hoom 12.1.2

        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right (Labour) or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.

      • hoom 12.1.3

        “We have no Right in NZ.”
        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.

    • Te Reo Putake 12.2

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?

      • Zorr 12.2.1

        +1

        As much as anything can (and will) happen in an election cycle, it is National on the ropes now. Labour has been on the ropes for the past 2-4 years (depending on how you choose to look at it) taking some brutal punishment and they dropped very far. Unless we are going to start considering a sub-30 result for Labour under Cunliffe, the only real way for them is still further up. There is a lot of skirmishing for position at the moment but I wouldn’t expect for there to be full scale engagements until after the Xmas/New Year doldrums.

        National, on the other hand, need a lot to stay in power. They are relying on results going their way in a variety of situations and if only a few of those go the wrong way… well, they’re out.

        tl;dr version: Labour have everything to win, nothing to lose except an election and, if they keep the pace up, will be looking strong going in to the final stretch. National are requiring a lot of things going their way including gerrymandering the electoral system to ensure a coalition partner so that no matter how strong they may be they will always appear shaky in comparison to Labour.

        Even shorter version: Go Labour – make me proud. If you lose this one I’m gonna cry.

        • Grantoc 12.2.1.1

          “National on the ropes now”???

          When they’re 10% ahead of Labour in this poll? And, if you consider the results of other recent polls, more than 10% ahead of Labour?

          It’s wishful thinking to say that Nationals on the ropes, based on one poll result where the margin of error is around 3/4%

          Its more accurate to say that Labour’s failing to gain traction, with its results in recent pols varying between around 30 – 34%.

      • alwyn 12.2.2

        Have a look at my comment to Fisiana. Think of some other “ifs”. Say a 1% swing to the Nats.
        Think if Labour beat Hone and Mana are out. I chose the conservative approach, and I don’t mean Conservative with a capital C, either.
        If one is looking at a poll you shouldn’t decide that my party will do better than the poll and the other party will do worse. Once you do that you are just making up numbers and ignoring the poll.

        • Te Reo Putake 12.2.2.1

          At least you’re acknowledging National need to make a gain somewhere. In other words, they’re playing catch up. This no longer their election to lose.

    • Te Reo Putake 12.3

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?

      • lprent 12.4.1

        Also, hands up who thinks NZF will fail the 5% threshhold?

        Not me. Their base constituency is growing slowly. Certainly isn’t shrinking.

        • Rogue Trooper 12.4.1.1

          sigh, Yep, and the Colon Craig limited appeal ain’t shiftin’ much of those seasoned warhorses.

        • Fisiani 12.4.1.2

          The NZF constituency is and always have been steadily dying or dementing just like Winston.

          • lprent 12.4.1.2.1

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?

            • Fisiani 12.4.1.2.1.1

              In 2011 it was obvious that Labour would and could not win. Voters therefore deserted Labour in droves giving them their lowest ever vote and some of that vote ended up with Winston. Thus with a resurgent Labour led by The Cunliffe those votes will return home and have done so already according to the polls. The true base for Winston was about 4% and 90% of that base are extremely elderly. Just take a look at the audience in his meetings. 6 years after 2008 the Winston First base is thus about 3% due to natural attrition. He still needs to find another 40,000 mugs to reach the 112,000 threshold. The possible mugs are more likely to go with the Conservatives as they have a leader who is in good health and likely to stand in 2014 and all the way through to 2017 unlike Winston.

          • lprent 12.4.1.2.2

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?

            Basically NZF targets specific groups well. I suspect at present it is growing its voter base because the Key government is making politicians look very evil again. The only problem they probably have this election is succession planning…

      • alwyn 12.4.2

        Yeah, well I did assume that the Maori party would have trouble holding on to 3 electorate seats when both Tariana and Pita quit. Your approach can however easily be argued.

      • Zorr 12.4.3

        +hand up

        However, I think you are being generous there because ACT is unlikely to survive (you have to calculate their odds of still existing before you even include them in the figures :P) and UF not collapsing under the weight of all that hypocrisy and hair.

        Then, on top of that, you have the Maori Party bleeding support and up against a resurgent Labour.

        I would say that the only figures that matter at all (and that requires us to think polls are anything other than self serving figures :P) at the moment are Nat vs Lab/Green because the more minor parties are in such precarious positions that until we get closer to the election we will have no idea of how it will turn out for them.

        • weka 12.4.3.1

          Whereas I think it’s a mistake to assume this is a two horse race. The election will be decided by the parties smaller than LG/N. Better to be thinking that through now I reckon.

          Also, RM says if an election were held today, hence the inclusion of ACT. I’m happy to take them out if someone makes the case (just put Bad’s hypothesis in the calculator, see above. It’s minus ACT, plus a rejigging of the Maori vote). But I don’t think we can assume or rely on the disappearance of UF. Or NZF. Unfortunately.

          • bad12 12.4.3.1.1

            Weka, on the numbers it is entirely in the hands of Labour/Green whether they occupy the treasury Benches after November 2014,

            This would tho i suggest require that both Labour and the Green’s party strategists convince them of a number of positions both party’s must take at that election,

            The first,(and one i do not believe for a moment will occur), would be for Labour to contest neither Te Tai Tokerau or Waiariki only campaigning for the Party votes in those two electorates,

            The second which i have already mentioned a couple of times is for the Labour and Green Party’s to identify all their voters in the electorates which the ACT and Conservative Parties have been given the ‘nod’ by National and campaign directly to such supporters that they vote strategically for the National candidate,(of course National might stymie such electioneering by simply not standing a candidate),

            Had Labour/Green candidates convinced 2000 odd voters of the above in the Epsom 2011 ballot,(out of a combined 7000 and something votes), the Act Party would have been toast as Banks only sneaked past National’s candidate by 2000 odd votes…

        • alwyn 12.4.3.2

          If we do as you say than we can just as easily say that we shouldn’t take any notice of this poll at all. One cannot say I will take the numbers that I like and ignore the ones I don’t like and have any valid discussion at all. Of course we can’t take much notice of any of the figures a year out but that means why should we take account of the figures for any of the major parties either.
          Let’s say National go up to 48%, Labour down to 31% and the Green party to 9%. Nobody else gets an electorate seat of 5%.
          On the other hand why bother. Just take the numbers that this poll gives us and see what they imply.

          • Zorr 12.4.3.2.1

            The point that I am trying to make is that there are a lot of noise in polls. In this election (as opposed to some of the past elections), all the minor parties have serious issues that are external to just winning votes. If you want me to list them, I can… here I go

            Mana – as much as they could strengthen Labours chances by winning an electorate seat, it requires Labour to stand aside to make it a sure thing and that is unlikely

            Maori Party – are they retiring? Are they holding on for just one more election? Who the hell knows – I doubt they even know themselves. Add in to that they have effectively sold their soul to National for the baubles and that 3% may just disappear in to the ether if they fail to win electorate seats.

            ACT – need to John Banks to not go to jail and still win an electorate seat

            UF – who knows what Dunne is up to? Add in to that the fact he may have completely spent his political capital now – once again, needs to win an electorate seat

            Conservatives – once again, need to find an electorate and then convince them that a carpet bagging Christian who has cut a deal with John Key is someone worth voting for

            NZF – need to get over 5% – but, as lprent rightly pointed out, their constituency is only growing so maybe I should up their chances

            However, apart from NZF every single party is relying on winning an electorate seat and hoping that a contender (because, lets face it, a strong one isn’t necessarily needed) doesn’t come along to push them off their perch. This is why I feel that the minor parties aren’t worth placing weight on at this point until things shake out further.

            • alwyn 12.4.3.2.1.1

              There are some interesting things there I agree
              A couple of comments I would make are.
              Mana. I would have thought that Hone was safe but that he didn’t have coat tails and would remain by himself. I don’t know that Labour would really want to work with him though and may go all out to beat him.

              Maori I think Flavell is safe. and one electorate is all they need.

              ACT I don’t know. They may be dead but they can probably rake up enough money and a decent candidate to keep Epsom. It doesn’t need to be Banks though.

              UF Dunne is a very, very good electorate MP and he is still keen. I don’t think Labour can beat him and I don’t think National is going to try to hard.

              Conservatives God knows. They at least have the money to compete with the tax-payer funded campaigns (unlimited travel etc) of the parties that are already in Parliament but I don’t really think they’ll make it.

              NZF This is the interesting one. I am beginning to wonder whether Winnie, and let’s face it he IS the party, has the energy anymore. If you look at the Roy Morgan poll numbers he is slipping a bit. In 2012 they got 5% or more in 18 of 22 polls. In 2013 they have only got 5% in 10 of 22 polls. I think that they may slip below the radar again.
              In 2012 they averaged 5.3% but in 2013 only 4.5% in each poll.

        • bad12 12.4.3.3

          ACT may yet also have one more twist in the electoral wind befor the noose finally shuts off the oxygen supply,

          i had a listen to ACT Party Prez John Boscowan talking on RadioNZ this afternoon where Banks’s chances were being discussed, altho He didn’t directly say so in words i get the distinct impression that Boscowan was intimating that ‘the Board’ just might cut Banks loose as their Epsom candidate no matter what happens with the ‘trial’

          Given a ‘cleaner’ candidate and another ‘nod’ towards them from Slippery the PM, the Actors might still, sadly, have a last gasp in them…

  13. Mike S 13

    Speaking of polls, how do they poll people?

    The reason I ask is that I’ve never been asked in a poll and neither has anyone I know or anyone they know. Which seems a bit odd. Do they only phone landlines? Or do they stop and ask people in the street?

    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      on the RM results page they say they contact both landlines and mobiles…a few commentators here on The Standard have been rung by polling companies before. I have too, but quite a few years back now, and none recently.

      • Mike S 13.1.1

        Thanks CV. Any idea how they get the mobile numbers? I ask this because in my case, there’s no connection between my name and my mobile number as I use a prepaid. This is the same with pretty much all of my friends, that is no landline and a prepaid mobile.

        Looking at what I’ve written, that’s probably a fairly good reason why none of us has ever been involved in a poll. D’oh !

        Still, I’d be interested to see how big of a slice of eligible voters they are missing out and particularly whether or not those people are generally similar in terms of parties they vote for. Myself and most of the people I know are what I guess you’d call left leaning voters and in my opinion, that would be the case with most people in the same situation. (Just a guess obviously but to be honest, the few right leaning voters I associate with tend to have landlines and / or mobile accounts.)

        I could easily see a large number of the not so well off having no landline and at most a prepaid mobile. Again just my opinion but I would assume the majority of these people would also vote for leftish parties.

        I guess I’m trying to figure out why National has such a high polling percentage as I literally don’t know anyone who would vote for National if there were an election tomorrow. Even Dad, who has voted national all his life without even thinking about it, has said he wouldn’t vote for John Key again.

        • Andrew 13.1.1.1

          One approach is to randomly generate numbers within prefixes. Then connection test them. Then sample the connected numbers randomly and in proportion to prefix sizes (this is known as RDD sampling).

          According to a tweet I saw, RM appear to do something similar to this:
          http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/07/15/a-wee-bit-more-info-to-add-to-the-poll-methods-grid/

          Presumably they control somehow for overlap with their landline sample frame – such as screening out most of those they call on cells because they also have a landline (because they are covered by the landline sample frame), or weighting the results, or targeting a certain number who also have landlines and a certain number who don’t.

        • Andrew 13.1.1.2

          When I was at Uni I didn’t know anyone *at all* who supported National (at least nobody told me they did). Now I’m in the private sector I know a lot more people who support National. I think it’s just that my social connections have changed.

          Although some people who post here really hate polls, the thing is, *nobody* knows a representative group of NZers. People might think they do, but they really don’t. You might know a good cross-section by age, gender, location, income, and ethnic group – but what about other things that can influence political preference – such as what movies people have seen, books they have read, socialisation, etc?

          So *good* polls or surveys are a good way we can find out what people very different to ourselves might think.

  14. phil 14

    “We have no right in NZ”. Fisiani, don’t you mean “we have no rights in NZ”. The latter is more accurate. Talk to The Pike River families, Kim Dot Com, Canterbury Regional Council, Christchurch EQ residents, forced council amalgamations, DOC Ruataniwha officers, caregivers of special needs family members, parents of roast buster teenagers, right to swim in unpolluted rivers etc. The so called ‘right’ wing in NZ is far right, it’s just that we have the MSM media telling us that Lab/green is far left. Selling of profit making Assets is far right in my book. As is knowingly despoiling the environment. Not to mention cutting workers rights and taxes of the rich.

  15. McFlock 15

    Tragedy. Wail. Labour with margin of error movement, still in their 30-33% natural level. When oh when will they get the leader I support, the country will jump behind labour then. [Yawn] /sarc

  16. ak 16

    Heads up.

    The Marketing Party knows better than any the importance of leading into the break in election year.

    Hard, hard push on NO required, starting now if not sooner. TV ads, billboards and newsworthy gimmicks please.

    And brace for a most serious distraction: major benny-bash; very, very soon.

  17. Tracey 17

    I wonder how does hooten reconcile his poll with these results. Different demographic? What was the methodology. Does it realky exist?

  18. Tanz 18

    Oh, yay fo Colin Craig, the light at the end of the tunnel, the brigadier that we very much need. Woohoo!!!!

  19. Crunchtime 19

    It really depends on

    1. Labour’s performance in the coming months, particularly Cunliffe of course but I think we need to see a growing sense of unity and for that ugly blue/purple streak to be gently, gradually surgically removed

    2. A growing sense of unity and pragmatism in the strategic thinking between Labour and Green. Not political thinking, not policy thinking, strategic. I think we’ve seen enough in the last few elections to know that politics and policy don’t win elections. Being able to market your policy effectively wins elections.

    Depending on how well Cunliffe, Labour, Turei, Norman and the Greens do at this, and how well the media deals with it (and is dealt with), I think we’ll see a trend upwards and anywhere up to a 10% swing towards Labour/Green. Maybe even more?

    But we gotta be hard-nosed about this.

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  • Housing prices go up – Gens X & Y give up
    Today’s REINZ report shows house prices continue skyward while first home buyers are dropping out of the market, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand the national median house price has risen...
    Labour | 11-04
  • Do Key and Adams support Chorus appeal?
    John Key and Amy Adams must tell New Zealanders whether they support Chorus’ appeal of the High Court’s ruling in favour of the Commerce Commission, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “Chorus’ appeal is a waste of time. The company is...
    Labour | 11-04
  • Is Judith Collins unapologising
    Judith Collins appears to have retracted her apology for failing to disclose her meeting with her husband’s fellow company directors and a senior Chinese border control official just weeks after being ticked off by John Key for not doing so, Labour...
    Labour | 11-04
  • Media Advisory
    There have been a few minor changes to the MANA AGM agenda. Moana Jackson is unable to attend due to family commitments. Speaking in his place on Saturday morning MANA is pleased to welcome Georgina Beyer and Willie Jackson. MANA...
    Mana | 10-04
  • Green Party requests inquiry into Peter Dunne and Trust
    Green Party MP Denise Roche today wrote to the Parliamentary Registrar of Pecuniary Interests requesting an inquiry into whether Peter Dunne should have included his involvement as chair of the Northern Wellington Festival Trust on the Register of Pecuniary Interests...
    Greens | 10-04
  • Veterans short-changed
    The Veterans’ Support Bill reported back to Parliament today rejects a key recommendation of the Law Commission Review on which it is based and ignores the submissions of veterans and the RNZRSA, says Labour’s Veterans’ Affairs Spokesperson, Phil Goff. “A...
    Labour | 10-04
  • Tribute for Maungaharuru- Tangitu settlement
    Labour Member of Parliament for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, Meka Whaitiri paid tribute to Maungaharuru-Tangitu today as their Treaty of Waitangi settlement became law. “The Bill acknowledges Treaty breaches that left Maungaharuru-Tangitu virtually landless. Today we were reminded of the history, mamae, loss...
    Labour | 10-04
  • Neglected rural and regional roads will cost more lives
    The government must take urgent action to prevent more accidents to truck drivers and other road users of increased logging trucks on neglected roads, says Darien Fenton, Labour’s Transport spokesperson. “The dangers to drivers and other road users in the...
    Labour | 10-04
  • Judith Collins’ refusal to answer a disgrace
    If John Key is holding his Ministers to any standards at all, he must make Judith Collins answer questions about the senior Chinese official she met during her taxpayer-funded visit to China last October, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “Judith...
    Labour | 10-04
  • Ryall needs to heed hospital workforce issues
    The public health workforce, the same one Tony Ryall argues is making a lot of progress is facing increased pressure and staff burnout through his continued shuffling of the deckchairs, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Mr Ryall uses all...
    Labour | 10-04
  • Our government: still no idea
    Happy Easter everyone, bad weather aside. A previous post of mine was called “The Government with no ideas”.  Unsurprisingly, the theme of the piece was of a current government thoroughly absent of any creative ideas or solutions to assist more...
    The Daily Blog | 18-04
  • 12 things Forbes has to say about NZs about to burst economic bubble
    Forbes is not known for their socialist or left wing activism, so when they predict a grim economic failure, we should should collectively poo ourselves a little. National often get given this perception that somehow they are better economic mangers....
    The Daily Blog | 18-04
  • That Sinking Feeling: Labour’s urgent need for persuasive words and coura...
    THE LATEST ROY MORGAN POLL has Labour on 28.5 percent (down 3.5 percent) and the Greens on 11.5 percent (down 1.5 percent). At 40 percent, the combined vote of the two main centre-left parties has fallen 5 percentage points since...
    The Daily Blog | 18-04
  • Why the Labour movement should support a Universal Basic Income
    The Mana movement’s support of the idea of a universal basic income is a welcome development. It could become one of the litmus issues that define the party and prove extremely popular. If Mana are in a position to do...
    The Daily Blog | 18-04
  • Legal high and cannabis regulation
    I marched through Henderson last month with my fellow Westies to express our concern about the impact of so called “legal highs” on our community. Some people chanted loudly calling for banning, some expressing anger at the parliamentarians who voted...
    The Daily Blog | 18-04
  • Know your Tory fellow travellers and ideologues: John Bishop, Taxpayers Uni...
    . . On 19 March, I reported on the Board members of the so-called “Taxpayers Union”. With one exception, every single member of the Taxpayers Union Board was a current (or recent) card-carrying member or supporter of the National and/or...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • GUEST BLOG: Daniel Bruce – Internet Party: What Seems Ridiculous To The O...
    Imagine you’re a 18-21 year old, from a working class family. You’ve never had a landline phone at home, because your parents can’t afford the fixed monthly bills, so everyone in your familiy has a pre-pay mobile phone. Because of the same tight...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Greens to push for housing standards in MOU with Government
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Greens to push for housing standards in MOU with Government Tuesday, 28 Aug 2012 | Press Release We don’t need any more official reports. We know the problem and we have the plans....
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Mighty River squanders $3.8m preparing for sale
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Mighty River squanders $3.8m preparing for sale Tuesday, 28 Aug 2012 | Press Release New Zealanders do not want asset sales and they do not want the Government wasting millions of dollars on...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Government’s economic agenda on shaky ground
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Government’s economic agenda on shaky ground Monday, 27 Aug 2012 | Press Release Instead of betting on a boom and bust industry and selling off assets the government needs to invest in a...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • National’s tax cuts haven’t cut tax avoidance
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: National’s tax cuts haven’t cut tax avoidance Sunday, 26 Aug 2012 | Press Release It is not fair that many rich New Zealanders are cheating on their tax. National’s 2010 tax cuts, that...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Waitangi Tribunal report adds to crisis in asset sales agenda
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Waitangi Tribunal report adds to crisis in asset sales agenda Friday, 24 Aug 2012 | Press Release In its rush to sell our assets, National has found itself in a crisis of its...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Privacy across all departments needs checking
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Privacy across all departments needs checking Friday, 24 Aug 2012 | Press Release “People don’t have a choice about giving their information to the state so the Government has an absolute duty to...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Reports show Government role in driving ACC dysfunction
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Reports show Government role in driving ACC dysfunction Thursday, 23 Aug 2012 | Press Release Restoring public trust and confidence is an essential goal and will require very major change starting from the...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Government must front up on full costs of asset sales
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Government must front up on full costs of asset sales Thursday, 23 Aug 2012 | Press Release It’s time for the Government to front up over just how much these asset sales are...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • New report: middle NZ worse off, inequality grows
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: New report: middle NZ worse off, inequality grows Thursday, 23 Aug 2012 | Press Release Our society has never been as unequal as it is today. New research from the Ministry of Social...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Government to delay addressing climate change indefinitely
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Government to delay addressing climate change indefinitely Thursday, 23 Aug 2012 | Press Release “It would be a shock for any other Government to introduce such a self-defeatist piece of legislation but unfortunately...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Time to deliver on 26 weeks Paid Parental Leave
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Time to deliver on 26 weeks Paid Parental Leave Today marks two years since Labour MP Sue Moroney’s Bill extending paid parental leave to 26 weeks was drawn from the members’ ballot. “It’s...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Taxpayers robbed of $130m in Genesis sale
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Taxpayers robbed of $130m in Genesis sale Kiwi taxpayers have been robbed of $130 million by the Government in its final failed asset sale, says Labour’s SOEs spokesperson Clayton Cosgrove. “National set the...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Service for victims of sexual violence pushed out in cold
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Service for victims of sexual violence pushed out in cold Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 | Press Release Christchurch cannot afford to lose this agency The Green Party is calling on Housing New Zealand...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Resignation rates among cops soar
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Resignation rates among cops soar The number of frontline officers quitting the police force is at a four-year high, with more than 350 walking off the job in the past year, Labour’s Police...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Work visa problems need monitoring
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Work visa problems need monitoring The Government is handing out temporary work visas to migrants to work in jobs that could easily be filled by unemployed Kiwi workers in the Christchurch rebuild, says...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Legal high ban worthy of wider pick-up
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Legal high ban worthy of wider pick-up Auckland Council’s ban on using legal highs in a public place is an excellent idea that should be replicated around New Zealand, says Labour’s Associate Health...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Smith sells state P-houses to first home buyers
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Smith sells state P-houses to first home buyers Nick Smith must reassure worried first home buyers that any Housing NZ houses sold under his First Home policy will be tested for P contamination...
    The Daily Blog | 17-04
  • Brazil: Human rights under threat ahead of the World Cup
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Brazil: Human rights under threat ahead of the World Cup     Protests in Brazil:Brazil Franciscan friar kneels in front of Brazilian riot police officers asking for calm during confrontation with Landless...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Brazil: Human rights under threat ahead of the World Cup
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Brazil: Human rights under threat ahead of the World Cup     Protests in Brazil:Brazil Franciscan friar kneels in front of Brazilian riot police officers asking for calm during confrontation with Landless...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Libya: Trial of former al-Gaddafi officials by video link a farce
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Libya: Trial of former al-Gaddafi officials by video link a farce     Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi will face the courts on 14 April. © IMED LAMLOUM/AFP/Getty Images         Read...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Libya: Trial of former al-Gaddafi officials by video link a farce
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Libya: Trial of former al-Gaddafi officials by video link a farce     Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi will face the courts on 14 April. © IMED LAMLOUM/AFP/Getty Images         Read...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Algeria: Pre-election clampdown exposes ‘gaping holes’ in human rights ...
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Algeria: Pre-election clampdown exposes ‘gaping holes’ in human rights record     Freedom of expression, association and assembly are under threat ahead of elections in Algeria. © FAROUK BATICHE/AFP/Getty Images    ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Algeria: Pre-election clampdown exposes ‘gaping holes’ in human rights ...
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Algeria: Pre-election clampdown exposes ‘gaping holes’ in human rights record     Freedom of expression, association and assembly are under threat ahead of elections in Algeria. © FAROUK BATICHE/AFP/Getty Images    ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Viet Nam: Prisoners of conscience released but dozens remain jailed
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Viet Nam: Prisoners of conscience released but dozens remain jailed     Vietnamese activist Nguyen Tien Trung was one of the prisoners of conscience released this week. © Private      ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Viet Nam: Prisoners of conscience released but dozens remain jailed
    Source: Amnesty International NZ – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Viet Nam: Prisoners of conscience released but dozens remain jailed     Vietnamese activist Nguyen Tien Trung was one of the prisoners of conscience released this week. © Private      ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • PM’s China visit assisted Oravida, not Fonterra
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: PM’s China visit assisted Oravida, not Fonterra Questions must now be asked whether it was Fonterra or Oravida who really benefited from the Prime Minister’s recent visit to China, Labour’s Primary Industries spokesperson...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • New Zealand’s use of ozone depleting gases increases
    Source: Green Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: New Zealand’s use of ozone depleting gases increases A new Government report highlights that the amount of ozone depleting gases New Zealand is using is increasing, the Green Party said today. The report...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • The issues behind the possible MANA-Internet Party Alliance
      Last weekend Kim Dotcom spoke at MANAs AGM to discuss the possibility of the Internet Party and MANA Party working together to defeat John Key this election. As someone who knows both Hone and Kim, I have a unique...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Manufacturing Upgrade
    Source: Labour Party – Press Release/Statement: Headline: Manufacturing Upgrade   Labour is determined to support and grow our manufacturing sector. These policies grew out of the findings of the 2013 Parliamentary Inquiry into Manufacturing.   – The claims and opinions...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Get work on 29th and the ANZAC spirit deserts the TPPA
      Groser and co would have been spitting tacks last week as the ANZAC spirit deserted the TPPA negotiations. Australia has done a deal directly with Japan which undercuts the demand for Japan to opening all agriculture in the TPPA....
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • No fracking solution to climate change
    Some British tabloids and oil lobbyists have jumped on comments made by an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change author that fracking could play a role in addressing climate change as an argument for it here in Aotearoa, so is fracking...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • At Last: A Manufacturing Policy
    Source: First Union – Press Release/Statement: Headline: At Last: A Manufacturing Policy Date of Release:  Thursday, April 17, 2014 Body:  FIRST Union congratulates Labour on the release of its Manufacturing policy today. The union represents workers in the wood, food and...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Drone murder of New Zealander “justified” by Prime Minister
    Yesterday Prime Minister John Key justified the extrajudicial killing of a New Zealander in a US drone strike in Yemen with a few cynical, callous words at a stand-up press conference. Key said he’d been briefed by our spy agencies...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Secret Policeman’s Ball
      Amnesty International’s Secret Policeman’s Ball is back in New Zealand for one night of some of the best stand-up comedy from both national and international comics The freedom to provoke and in some cases offend is essential to the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • So the US has assassinated a NZ citizen – what did Key know?
    A non judicial assassination by the US on a NZ citizen raises questions. Key made the idea that NZers were training with terrorists part of his farcical defence for the GCSB mass surveillance legislation. I say farcical because even if...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Something Better Than Something Worse: Why John Key could become our longes...
    IN HIS MEMORABLE holiday-home encounter with the host of Campbell Live, the Prime Minister, John Key, did not rule out running for a fourth term. Were he to be successful, the long-standing record of Sir Keith Holyoake (11 years and 2...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • GUEST BLOG: RIO TINTO WINS 2013 ROGER AWARD
      Sky City Casino Second, Chorus Third  The seven finalists for the 2013 Roger Award for the Worst Transnational Corporation Operating in Aotearoa/New Zealand were: ANZ, Chorus, IAG Insurance Group, Imperial Tobacco, Rio Tinto, Sky City Casino and Talent 2. The criteria for judging are...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • National drowning in an ocean of poisoned milk
    It is becoming difficult to keep up with which National Party MP is bleeding the most at the moment. Simon Bridges is being crucified by Whaleoil almost as much as Greenpeace are attacking him, suggesting Cam is seizing the moment...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Want to get rid of synthetic cannabis? Legalize real cannabis
    Have we managed to appreciate the madness that synthetic cannabis is legal yet more harmful than organic cannabis which is illegal? I find the current moral panic over synthetic cannabis difficult to become concerned with when alcohol is FAR more...
    The Daily Blog | 16-04
  • Save our homes – stop the evictions!
    “We will keep on fighting because it frightens me to think my grandchildren could become homeless,” Tere Campbell told me. Tere is a member of Tamaki Housing Group. In September 2011, tenants in 156 state homes in Glen Innes received...
    The Daily Blog | 15-04
  • The daily humiliation of women and the constant policing and shaming of our...
    The last few months have been particularly bad for the shaming and policing of women’s bodies in the media, both in New Zealand and globally. First we had NZ Newstalk ZB presenter Rachel Smalley referring to women weighing over 70kgs...
    The Daily Blog | 15-04
  • A case study of racism by Police at Auckland Airport
    A couple of days ago I returned from Samoa after attending a family matter and some contract work. Spending a few days in the warmth of our homeland was welcome relief from the cold weather starting to make its presence...
    The Daily Blog | 15-04
  • An acute shortage of emergency youth housing
    The housing crisis is effecting everyone in Christchurch but some are more vulnerable than others. Recently I attended a workshop on emergency youth housing hosted by the 298 Youth Health Centre, who I worked for from 2001-2003. Over fifty people...
    The Daily Blog | 15-04
  • Global unions applaud NZ ‘slave ships’ progress
    Global unions the ITF (International Transport Workers' Federation) and IUF (International Union of Food, Agricultural and Hospitality Workers) today applauded the steps forward made in preventing often shocking abuse of crews on fishing vessels in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Families before commerce at Easter
    Families before commerce at Easter The retail workers’ union has hit back at critics of New Zealand's modest Easter trading restrictions. "Some things are more important than going to the mall, and for just three and a half days each...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Easter trading laws archaic, in need of overhaul
    Press release: ACT New Zealand Easter trading laws are outdated and in need of a major overhaul, said ACT leader Jamie Whyte today....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • ALCP welcomes Campbell Live poll result
    The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party welcomes last night's Campbell Live poll, saying it is an overdue reality check for public opinion on personal cannabis use....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Q+A This Week 20/4/14
    Q+A This Week SUNDAY 20 APRIL, 9AM ON TV ONE The latest on the US-NZ relationship from the US military’s top man in the Pacific, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear . Deputy Political Editor Michael Parkin asks him whether we’re allies,...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Community detention for pokie theft
    A 67-year-old former company director, convicted of stealing pokie machine profits, was today sentenced to six months community detention, 160 hours of community work and ordered to make reparation of $6,000....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Waitangi National Trust Board Amendment Bill
    The Māori Affairs Committee is inviting public submissions on this bill. The closing date for submissions is Wednesday, 14 May 2014....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Collaboration stops drugs from crossing borders
    Collaboration between Hong Kong and New Zealand Customs has stopped millions of dollars worth of drugs coming into New Zealand this year, with a number of seizures and arrests in both countries....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Call for public enquiry into the future of farming
    Fish & Game NZ is calling for a public enquiry “to examine the future of agriculture in New Zealand”....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Comment on Labour Policy Announcement by NZMEA President
    “This policy release from the Labour Party is so important that if it becomes government policy it would define a shift in New Zealand’s culture,” says Brian Willoughby President of the NZMEA and Managing Director of Plinius Audio and Contex...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Manufacturing policy makes sense but….
    On the surface much of Labour's prescription for manufacturing is sound though questions remain over some of the detail not yet announced, the Employers and Manufacturers Association says....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Where Are The 15,000 Jobs?
    “Paula Bennett is today proudly telling New Zealand that beneficiary numbers have decreased by 15,000 in the past year. There is no proud declaration that 15,000 jobs have been created in the same period,” says Auckland Action Against Poverty spokesperson,...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Change of approach to government procurement needed
    The rail engineering industry has been totally let down by National’s lack of manufacturing policy, and Labour’s measures outlined today represent a marked shift in approach to supporting domestic industries, the RMTU said today....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Depreciation Policy Shouldn’t Be Just for Pet Industries
    The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming Labour’s announcement to beef up rates of depreciation in the manufacturing sector, but is questioning why David Cunliffe is picking winners rather than applying the policy across all sectors. Jordan Williams,...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • FIFA U-20 World Cup NZ 2015 Kick Off Times Announced
    An array of kick-off times to suit football fans of all ages has been confirmed for the FIFA U-20 World Cup New Zealand 2015. With 52 matches spread across the nation, the public will be able to enjoy a collection...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • “Legitimate purpose” provides no protection under 167 form
    On Radio New Zealand today, the Privacy Commissioner indicated that ACC could only request information that was "relevant" for a "legitimate purpose". His view was therefore that the ACC167 form is not a "blank cheque" or...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • State: still keeping you safe on the road this Easter
    The long-awaited Easter/ Anzac break is nearly upon us while the weather may have taken a turn for the worse in several parts of the country, many Kiwis will still be packing up their cars to take a road trip....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Govt plan for community input into residential red zone
    Christchurch Mayor Lianne Dalziel has welcomed Prime Minister John Key’s announcement today of a community participation process for the public to have a say on the future use of the residential red zone....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Governor-General to visit Turkey
    The Governor-General, Lt Gen The Rt Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae, is to visit Turkey next week to lead New Zealand’s representation at the annual Gallipoli commemorations....
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Actions of Police prior to death in custody were justified
    A report by the Independent Police Conduct Authority on the death of Adam Palmer while in Police custody found the actions of Police were justified during the arrest. The report also found that Police took all possible steps to try...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • New Electorate Boundaries Finalised
    New boundaries for the country’s 64 General and seven Māori electorates have been finalised – with an additional electorate created in Auckland. The 2014 Representation Commission has completed its statutory role of reviewing and redrawing electorate...
    Scoop politics | 17-04
  • Save The Children Welcomes Strengthening Children’s Rights
    Save the Children New Zealand welcomes a new treaty which allows children to complain directly to the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child about alleged violations of their rights....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Labour takes manufacturing seriously
    Labour takes manufacturing seriously Manufacturing workers and employers will all benefit from economic policies announced today by the Labour Party leader, David Cunliffe. The Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union has welcomed the announcement...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Manufacturing policy welcomed
    “Today’s announcement of Labour’s manufacturing policy is very welcome,” says CTU Economist Bill Rosenberg. “Just as many other developed countries are realising, having a strong manufacturing sector pays off in good jobs, retaining...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Operation Unite – a Blitz on Drunken Violence
    New Zealand Police are hoping to reduce the number of victims from alcohol related crime by asking the public to say ‘Yeah, Nah’ more often this holiday weekend....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Dunne Speaks
    Dunne Speaks 17 April 2014 There have been a number of harrowing cases presented this week about the impact of psychoactive substances on vulnerable young people. At one level, the tales are deeply disturbing. It is awful to see anyone...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Research announcement welcomed
    A leading Māori researcher has welcomed the announcement of the 2014 Te Pūnaha Hihiko - Vision Mātauranga Capability Fund by Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce and Māori Affairs Minister Dr Pita Sharples....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • At Last: A Manufacturing Policy
    At Last: A Manufacturing Policy FIRST Union congratulates Labour on the release of its Manufacturing policy today. The union represents workers in the wood, food and textile manufacturing sectors. “In a week that has seen another manufacturing company,...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Republic campaigners still positive after royal visit
    "Campaigners for a New Zealand Head of State are still feeling positive after ten days of royal events" says NZ Republic Chair, Savage. "Our polling before the visit showed increased support for a kiwi head of state. We have a...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Selling homes to foreigners benefits New Zealanders
    Winston Peters has apparently convinced David Cunliffe that when foreigners buy New Zealand property they make New Zealanders worse off. Mr Cunliffe has announced his intention to adopt Winston Peters’ policy of banning foreigners from buying...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Taxpayers’ Union Welcomes Key’s Rejection of ‘Fat Tax’
    The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming Prime Minister John Key’s rejection of fat and sugar taxes ahead of this year's election. Jordan Williams, Executive Director of the Union, says:...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Law Commission Paper on a New Crown Civil Proceedings Act
    The Law Commission has released A New Crown Civil Proceedings Act for New Zealand , its Issues Paper on reforming the Crown Proceedings Act 1950. The Issues Paper proposes a new statute to replace the Crown Proceedings Act 1950....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Focus must now go on fishing industry jobs for NZ workers
    Maritime Union says focus must now go on fishing industry jobs for New Zealand workers...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Make the choice to stay safe on the road
    With Easter and Anzac Day giving us two successive long weekends this year there will be a lot of happy families preparing for trips....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Students Welcome Engagement with StudyLink
    The New Zealand Union of Students’ Associations (NZUSA) has welcomed the improved performance from StudyLink in 2014. There is no doubt that getting their loans and allowances processed on time makes it easier for students to concentrate on being...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Deaf And Hard of Hearing New Zealanders Marginalised
    Deaf And Hard of Hearing New Zealanders Marginalised Imagine if you could not access vital news and information. What would you do?...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Public lose interest in this council, 2016 to be a watershed
    The second term Auckland Council is proving to be an interesting one and very different to the inaugural 2010 – 2013 Governing Body. We are currently going through a budget round to lock in where council’s $3b expenditure is directed...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Labour and National join forces in new Maori confiscations
    Chris McKenzie, former-treaty negotiator and Te Tai Hauauru Maori party candidate, says that the Minister of Primary Industries’ plans to remove temporary exemptions for vessel operators derived from settlement negotiations is akin to confiscation...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • The FCV Bill – Flagging 30 years of failures?
    Paying seafarers at least a minimum wage under the Minimum Wage Act 1983 has applied to the New Zealand fishing industry for more than 30 years. It was, and is, a basic protection which had two universals – it was...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Oxfam’s Morning Tea 2014
    Oxfam’s Morning Tea 2014 Kiwis across the country are getting together over a cuppa to make a difference in the lives of people living in poverty in the developing world. They’re getting involved in Oxfam’s Morning Tea, a fun and...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • 1 in 4 Want to Improve Financial Literacy But Don’t Know How
    1 in 4 Want to Improve Financial Literacy But Don’t Know Where to Go...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Rio Tinto Wins 2013 Roger Award
    Sky City Casino Second, Chorus Third - The criteria for judging are by assessing the transnational (a corporation with 25% or more foreign ownership) that has the most negative impact in each or all of the following categories: economic dominance...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • ACC’s Strategy to stop compensation using ACC 167 Form
    On Radio NZ national’s morning report on 15 April 2014, ACC’s spokesperson Sid Miller denied the non-compliance was just a way for ACC to refuse people....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Workers support plain packaging of tobacco
    The CTU have today presented to the health select committee in support of plain packaging of tobacco. “Any steps that can be taken to lower smoking rates will result in New Zealand workers and their families having healthier and better...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Christchurch Housing Accord a Joke
    Christchurch Housing Accord a Joke Hugh Pavletich Performance Urban Planning Christchurch New Zealand 16 April 2014 The Housing Accord entered in to today between the Government and the Christchurch City Council, can only be described as a joke. Christchurch...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Infographic : World Giving Index 2013
    Infographic from Charities Aid Foundation World Giving Index 2013 A Global View Of Giving Trends (click to see full size version)...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Tranter questions CEO’s assurances
    “There is a bizarre notion among bureaucrats, politicians and others that if they say something then it must be so - despite all evidence to the contrary” said David Tranter, Health spokesman for Democrats for Social Credit....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • UNICEF NZ Urges Progress on Plain Packaging of Tobacco
    In its oral submission to the Health Select Committee today, UNICEF NZ expressed its strong support for the Smoke-free Environments (Tobacco Plain Packaging) Amendment Bill as a measure that will help reduce the uptake of smoking, and urged parliament...
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • Whitebait partners look for solutions
    Waikato-Tainui, local marae, councils and agencies are working together to better manage whitebait fisheries at Port Waikato following the compilation of a new report....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
  • NZ’s biggest killer fails to receive the Roger
    The Smokefree Coalition is disappointed Imperial Tobacco did not win the Roger Award for Worst Trans-national Company operating in New Zealand, despite manufacturing products that kill 5000 New Zealanders every year....
    Scoop politics | 16-04
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