Too close to call

111 comments on “Too close to call ”

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1. AmaKiwi 1

   27 November 2013 at 6:26 pm

   I am so proud to finally see a steady flow of mainstream media news stories: “Labour says . . . ,” “Cunliffe says . . . ”

   Hardly a day goes by without a Labour news story in the headlines. For too long the small Greens caucus had to carry on the fight by themselves.

   The Left is on the road to victory.
   • ScottGN 1.1

     27 November 2013 at 6:48 pm

     I agree, it’s good to see that Cunliffe is getting his talking points out and putting Key on the defensive.
     • vto 1.1.1

       27 November 2013 at 9:23 pm

       .
       John Key doesn’t like having to be defensive… I think he’s developed a limp…

       http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4&noredirect=1
2. fisiani 2

   27 November 2013 at 6:32 pm

   This post must surely win November’s best spin of bad news into good award.
   It could easily have read “Labour cannibalising Green vote and Winston First still nowhere and Mana not even registering at all. National still with nearly 1 in 2 support and with likely return of ACT and UF and Maori party and a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s and all this before the amazing economic results of 2014.
   • gobsmacked 2.1

     27 November 2013 at 6:34 pm

     “a minimum of 3 Conservative MP’s”

     How?
     • amirite 2.1.1

       27 November 2013 at 6:39 pm

       He thinks there are enough numbers of anti-fluoride chemtrail believing-nutters who will vote for Crazy Colin in his electorate, which in turn will bring 3 more MPs on his coat tails. I can’t think of anything else as an explanation.
     • fisiani 2.1.2

       27 November 2013 at 6:45 pm

       5% gets you 6 MP’s 2.5% with a seat gets you 3 MP’s. Simple maths.
       • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1

         27 November 2013 at 6:53 pm

         Again, how does he win a seat?

         “Simple maths” shows us that 99% of people on social media have now decided he’s a joke. Including many National voters.

         Or are you deliberately avoiding the news?

         For Fisiani …

         https://twitter.com/search?q=colin%20craig&src=typd&f=realtime
         • fisiani 2.1.2.1.1

           27 November 2013 at 6:57 pm

           95% could think Colin Craig was a joke and he would still get another 5 fellow jokers. Remember that over 93% thought Winston crazier than batshit.
           • gobsmacked 2.1.2.1.1.1

             27 November 2013 at 7:00 pm

             Please, please keep believing in Colin Craig. Please keep believing that he can’t harm National.

             Third time … what seat is he going to win?
             • fisiani …

               27 November 2013 at 7:05 pm

               The one that National want him to win Duh.
               • gobsmacked …

                 27 November 2013 at 7:10 pm

                 OK, Fisiani, show us your strategic genius.

                 During the election campaign, the media will follow Craig around, and he will casually declare that “herpes is God’s punishment” or “only perverts get divorced” or “every kid needs a gun”.

                 How will Key respond?

                 He can’t say “it’s nothing to do with National”. You’ve just given him a National seat.
                 • fisiani …

                   27 November 2013 at 7:17 pm

                   He will never be given a seat by National. He will have to win one.
                 • mickysavage …

                   27 November 2013 at 7:23 pm

                   Or how about “I am aware of the theory that chemicals are being released at high altitude for some nefarious purpose but don’t know whether there is any truth in this or not” …

                   How will Key respond to that?
                   • Colonial Viper …

                     27 November 2013 at 7:27 pm

                     He’ll be comfortable with the fact that Craig is open minded and willing to consider different possibilities.
                   • fisiani …

                     27 November 2013 at 8:17 pm

                     Why would John Key need to respond?
                   • mickysavage …

                     27 November 2013 at 9:57 pm

                     Because he should tell the country if he is willing to have a muppet in his government so that he can have the numbers?
               • David H …

                 29 November 2013 at 9:23 am

                 And the Government lasts for about 5 minutes. We would be a bigger laughing stock than Italy for election hijinks and Crazy politicians.

                 Yeah Fisi the Nats are going to spurn him like he’s the poisoned Chalice, once the rest of NZ stop laughing at Key for even thinking of an alliance with the Crazy Conservatives, and Christian nutters.
   • Rogue Trooper 2.2

     27 November 2013 at 7:33 pm

     while all this is hilarious fizz, you are definitely pushing manure up an incline with a toothpick 😀
   • Ad 2.3

     27 November 2013 at 7:56 pm

     Well named, Fisiani.
     • Rogue Trooper 2.3.1

       27 November 2013 at 8:17 pm

       that’s what I’ve always found to be upon inspection.
     • fisiani 2.3.2

       27 November 2013 at 8:19 pm

       It is my Chitumbuka name.
       • Rogue Trooper 2.3.2.1

         27 November 2013 at 8:22 pm

         ‘njoka’
   • aerobubble 2.4

     28 November 2013 at 9:48 am

     Mana, what gives? why do small parties do that? Have one face. Looks what happened to ACT with just one face, and when that face falls flat on itself. Whats with Winston, same deal, the also rans are too weak so as to not to offend the dotty old guy ramblings. The only party outside of the two mainstream, that has is the Greens, because any muggins can contest the leadership. If I were Mana I’d dump Hone and put up a meaningful candidate in that seat, that’ll spin National plans into crisis.

     Run a Green in the Cromandal (or better Dunnes seat) uncontested by Labour, and add salt to National wounds. How hard would it be to say Dunne voted against asset sales over and over.

     Its called Politics and so being interesting, confident means spinning the wheel.
     • David H 2.4.1

       29 November 2013 at 9:25 am

       And it wouldn’t be hard for labour to pull out of Dunne’s seat and ask their voters to vote in the Green Candidate. And thats how simple it is.
     • alwyn 2.4.2

       29 November 2013 at 11:51 am

       “Run a Green in Coromandel uncontested by Labour”
       Not the greatest idea really. The people of the Coromandel aren’t quite that stupid.
       In the 2011 General Election the votes went as follows.
       Delahunty (Green) 5,660
       Kinimonth (Labour) 5,831
       Simpson (National) 18,571
       So even if every single Labour voter, in the absence of a Labour candidate, were to vote for the Green candidate that would STILL leave National with a majority of more than 7,000.
3. red blooded 3

   27 November 2013 at 6:35 pm

   Don’t let’s get overconfident. The Nats have timed things so that we will be back in surplus next year (never mind the service cuts required to reach this goal), the asset sales will be over, the ChCh rebuild will be pumping the economy, there will be all sorts of scaremongering about issues to do with oil (gotta get it out of the ground and pumped away ASAP!), electricity, radical socialism gone mad… There’s a long way to go yet. Can you imagine these guys as a 3rd term government? Scary thought.
   • tc 3.1

     27 November 2013 at 6:53 pm

     Agree, they are well advised, funded and supported by various MSM outlets and unlike the left don’t care who they trample over or how as long as they get the results.

     Focus on Key, the cronyism deal making and all the BS that has become his stock in trade, without him they are toast as the numbers speak for themselves on asset sales, tax cuts costs etc etc.

     Could start with when are chorus going broke Johnny ? You said it so it must be true o financial genius.
   • mickysavage 3.2

     27 November 2013 at 7:39 pm

     Yep I can. I thought about emigrating if Labour did not win the 1999 election …
   • jcuknz 3.3

     28 November 2013 at 10:15 am

     It will make them a push over for 2017 though and about time then to upset all the little cliques so that new L/G ones can form.
4. Colonial Viper 4

   27 November 2013 at 6:47 pm

   It’s going to be a frakin’ hard fight next year. Key and English will have lined up a bunch of good news announcements, and don’t be surprised if it includes high profile feel-good corporate activity.

   Also I wanted to see the gender breakdown of these RM figures but I don’t think they have split them out this time.
   • bad12 4.1

     27 November 2013 at 7:45 pm

     Do you get the impression that Roy was having a little play at ‘spinning’ when the poll separated out the gender balance in the last poll,( the gender issue is one means of ensuring a party could get a negative result in polling depending where in the questioning it is asked, the Reid Poll is said to ask a number of such leading questions while polling befor asking for the persons particular party support)…
     • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

       27 November 2013 at 7:49 pm

       Always possible.
   • David H 4.2

     29 November 2013 at 9:29 am

     But thats the thing, it’s ALWAYS the fucking Corporates that get the feel good things, while the rest of us just get shat on from a great height.
   • Francis 4.3

     30 November 2013 at 9:52 am

     The corporates already have a limited ability to alter the economic conditions to favour certain governments through confidence, etc. Remember the Winter of Discontent?
5. Brett Dale 5

   27 November 2013 at 7:10 pm

   2.5 % wont vote for the nutcases in the conservative party, they may be get 1%, but that will be it.
   • Colonial Viper 5.1

     27 November 2013 at 7:19 pm

     Could get 2 MPs in quite comfortably, a third maybe. LAB/GR need to head this off by playing in the target electorate real smart.
     • Lanthanide 5.1.1

       27 November 2013 at 7:45 pm

       Maybe they could just say they aren’t going to compete in an electorate where National is trying to blatantly game the system, and encourage all left-wing voters to vote for National to ensure Colin doesn’t get in.
       • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

         27 November 2013 at 7:50 pm

         +1
         • David H 5.1.1.1.1

           29 November 2013 at 11:09 am

           And if they worked it out between them in all the Nat marginals then maybe the Greens could easily pick up a couple of seats or more, and then you would have a true partnership. Not this ‘win at all costs’ mentality, while targeting your political allies, instead of your political enemies. Tactical is the way to go.
       • Ake ake ake 5.1.1.2

         29 November 2013 at 9:39 am

         That is actually quite clever. So, in that case, electorate vote would be National, and party vote would be up to left-wing voters.
   • bad12 5.2

     27 November 2013 at 7:40 pm

     On Planet Brett Dale how many party voted for the Conservatives in the 2011 election???…
     • Brett Dale 5.2.1

       28 November 2013 at 1:53 pm

       bad12:

       They were knew, he spent a ton, now that people know what he stands for, there is no way 2% of the public would give him their party vote.
6. Will@Welly 6

   27 November 2013 at 7:15 pm

   I was picking National to win next years election hands down, particularly with the snake oil leader Key in charge, and Joyce leading the spin brigade. Now, with David Cunliffe lifting the troops, ably supported by the Greens – who have been well marshalled and organised – things are turning. But you can’t take anything for granted. National is already in election mode. They are preparing for the election now – getting their bag of tricks and sweeteners ready for the giveaways to buy their way back into power.
   Look at ACC. They raised the fees when they came into power, created a crisis, now, with things looking dicey next year, the shackles come off, they’ve managed to unload thousands off their long-term commitments, they’re flush with funds – our money – and now, next year, they’re going to “reward” us. Typical Tories.
   • Rogue Trooper 6.1

     27 November 2013 at 7:34 pm

     hold yourself up in that breeze.
7. Ad 7

   27 November 2013 at 7:27 pm

   So does anyone in Labour exist other than David Cunliffe?

   This has got to be the laziest front bench I have seen since, ah, David Shearer’s front bench.

   Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally. Goff and King remain honest toilers. Great.

   But as expected Robertson has disappeared without a ripple, Arden is completely M.I.A., local wannabes like Nash or Sepuloni appear only for relentless self-promotion about how much they want to be elected, Dalziell has gone, and the rest fail to make a media mention despite the worst-performing National bench since Bolger’s second term.

   Labour have failed to capitalise on the leadership selection, got very little bump out of Conference, appear to have no media strategy whatsoever, have done seriously no campaigning on its signature opposition campaign (the actual Referendum), have a leader that only does best on overly-orchestrated set pieces…
   …and as a result have polling results that go up and down faster than my girlfriends’ pants.

   Whatever is happening in what poses for Labour HQ, sort your shit out, because National clearly gets it.
   • Rogue Trooper 7.1

     27 November 2013 at 7:35 pm

     so naughty.
   • bad12 7.2

     27 November 2013 at 7:36 pm

     Your girlfriends pants going up and down so fast says a hell of a lot more about you than Labour, this could be a premature comment of course but then by the sound of you premature is right up your alley…
   • Colonial Viper 7.3

     27 November 2013 at 7:42 pm

     National is right into it’s renewal process weeding out the chaff. With even more pro-active announcements before Christmas I reckon.
     • Ad 7.3.1

       27 November 2013 at 7:51 pm

       National MPs understand the momentum is temporarily with Labour as the Christchurch East by election, and Referendum, gain news traction.

       But they are actively working on a State of the Nation speech for the third week of January that will reflect the largest national lolly-scramble of vote-buying that we have seen for decades.

       It will also have the promise of further tax cuts should they get elected.

       And wait for the sports people they have lined up as candidates: handsome, rich, famous, media-savvy. Trust me their names floated are good.

       They have game-breaking stuff ready to go that will fully extinguish any Labour momentum built this calendar year.

       Shit must be sorted.
       • Rogue Trooper 7.3.1.1

         27 November 2013 at 7:58 pm

         put up
         • Ad 7.3.1.1.1

           27 November 2013 at 8:02 pm

           …or pulled down
           • Rogue Trooper 7.3.1.1.1.1

             27 November 2013 at 8:19 pm

             you show me yours, I’ll show you mine. ‘A poke for a smoke” as my mate is fond of saying.
       • Ake ake ake 7.3.1.2

         27 November 2013 at 9:16 pm

         “will reflect the largest national lolly-scramble of vote-buying that we have seen for decades”

         Yes. That would be correct.
       • Colonial Viper 7.3.1.3

         27 November 2013 at 9:36 pm

         Shit must be sorted.

         Aye.
       • emergency mike 7.3.1.4

         27 November 2013 at 11:40 pm

         Lolly scrambles and celebrities, wow. If they ever manage to add policies to help the country to that list they would have a formula that’s tough to beat…
   • felix 7.4

     27 November 2013 at 10:12 pm

     “Twyford and Jones and Parker appear occasionally.”

     Jones needs a fucking muzzle. Seriously, he should literally be made to wear a ball gag in public.

     Just the other day, when asked about something Gareth Hughes (representing the only hope Labour has of governing any time in the next 20 years) had said about deep-sea oil drilling, Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy)

     Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

     Someone in Labour needs to take him out behind the barn and put a bullet in him like any other useless old nag.
     • Morrissey 7.4.1

       28 November 2013 at 11:26 am

       Jones said (transcribed by Morrissey with word perfect accuracy): “Hughes? Fuck him. That little cunt can kiss my fat fucking arse and fuck off while he’s doing it.

       I know you’re only joking here, felix, but just in case anyone is wondering, I did NOT transcribe that, nor did I make it up.

       I do share your sentiments about the egregious Shane Jones, however. He is one of the most pompous gits in parliament.
       • felix 7.4.1.1

         28 November 2013 at 9:17 pm

         😀
8. bad12 8

   27 November 2013 at 7:29 pm

   A good poll, in this one NZfirst are gone from the Parliament, (not that i have any great belief that Winston’s crew are any lower than the 4.8% of the 2008 election), and further consideration of that particular little point would suggest that National are probably in this poll 2% higher than what is credible,

   Given the numbers it simply appears that Slippery has no friends, Banks is a conviction away from occupying a more fitting ‘House’ and i have the sneaking suspicion if the words of Party Prez Boscowan are any guide that either way Banks’s name might be absent from the ballot come November 2014,

   What chance of Slippery and National ‘gaming’ the electorate again in 2014 by giving Colon Craig and the 2% Conservatives the ‘nod’ in a particular electorate, slim if any i would suggest and if Labour and the Green Party have an ounce of ‘smarts’ they will go through any particular electorate National try to gift to Craig and identify every Green and Labour voter convincing them of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

   Where the 3 electorate seats held by the Maori Party go in November 2014 i think on these numbers will make this the crucial question for Labour/Green and Labour needs to definitely hoover up the Maori Parties current 1.5% of the party vote from these electorates,

   Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God,(as opposed to an act of Goofy in the form of Colon Craig),will be needed by Slippery and National to gain a third term in 2014…
   • Colonial Viper 8.1

     27 November 2013 at 7:34 pm

     identify every Green and Labour voter convincing of the necessity of voting for the National candidate no matter how tightly they have to hold their noses to do so,

     This.

     Should Annette Sykes wrest Waiariki off of Te Ururoa Flavell who has a slim 1000 votes over her in that electorate and Labour take back one or both of the remaining Maori electorates held by the Maori Party plus 1% of their party vote then an act of God

     Labour should help Annette Sykes win that one. They really should.

     “Act of Goofy”…awesome!
     • Craig Y 8.1.1

       28 November 2013 at 3:26 pm

       All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?
     • Craig Y 8.1.2

       28 November 2013 at 3:26 pm

       All of which assumes that Te Ururoa Flavell sides with the Nats next time, especially given the Con Party’s Treaty-bashing viz their September 2013 conference and Oct 2013 newsletter. Is there any evidence that Dunne will retain Ohariu-Belmont next time?
   • weka 8.2

     27 November 2013 at 9:33 pm

     The Bad12 version

     L 46
     G 14
     M 2
     =62

     NZF

     MP 0
     UF 1
     N 58
     ACT 0
     =59
   • David H 8.3

     29 November 2013 at 11:16 am

     So what botox smooth face will they have for the next election?
9. dave 9

   27 November 2013 at 7:49 pm

   half a percent the a quarter there thats all we need to do we chip away small little gains will add up !
10. Ad 10

    27 November 2013 at 7:54 pm

    Too close to call unless you are John Key. Because he can count. In fact he only needs to count to 2, (including Speaker), because he’s done it for 5 years.

    No evidence Labour can yet.

    Learn or lose, Labour.
11. Rogue Trooper 11

    27 November 2013 at 7:56 pm

    nothin’ to do with the interwebz or social media.Nope.
12. alwyn 12

    27 November 2013 at 8:17 pm

    This is really to close to call.
    If you assume, which is quite possible, that the Maori Party, ACT, United Future and Mana all get an electorate seat and that Labour and National take all the others the Parliament would be
    National 57
    Labour 44
    Green 14
    Maori 2
    Mana 1
    ACT 1
    United Future 1
    On the current split of parties that would be Right 61, Left 59. That is a very small win to the current government.
    I used the electoral calculator on the elections.org.nz website.
    • fisiani 12.1

      27 November 2013 at 8:25 pm

      Should be MP 3
      Centre 59
      Left and Far Left 59

      But you have ignored the 3 4 or 5 Conservatives who are not Right either.
      We have no Right in NZ.
      • alwyn 12.1.1

        27 November 2013 at 9:13 pm

        I assumed that with Tariana and Pita retiring the Maori party might hold only one or two electorate seats.
        Also I did not assume that the Conservatives would be able to win an electorate seat. That is the most “conservative situation”, which assumes minimum changes.
        One can always make alternative assumptions, and think of all sorts of “ifs”. However you should always remember the old saw. “If my Aunt had balls she would have been my Uncle”
        • weka 12.1.1.1

          27 November 2013 at 9:20 pm

          You also assumed that NZF won’t make the threshhold. I put the current figures in the calculator and got 62/59 (there is an overhang, so 121 MPs). See

          http://thestandard.org.nz/too-close-to-call/#comment-735122
      • hoom 12.1.2

        28 November 2013 at 1:25 am

        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right (Labour) or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.
      • hoom 12.1.3

        28 November 2013 at 1:33 am

        “We have no Right in NZ.”
        Lolwat?
        http://politicalcompass.org/nz2011

        We have only Greens & Mana actually being Left in Parliament.
        Everything else is Right or far stark raving mind boggling loony Right.

        To be fair that is pre-election based on election policy statements so doesn’t include NZfirst, doesn’t account for the stuff Maori party has voted for & doesn’t include post election Labour policy.
    • Te Reo Putake 12.2

      27 November 2013 at 8:59 pm

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?
      • Zorr 12.2.1

        27 November 2013 at 9:15 pm

        +1

        As much as anything can (and will) happen in an election cycle, it is National on the ropes now. Labour has been on the ropes for the past 2-4 years (depending on how you choose to look at it) taking some brutal punishment and they dropped very far. Unless we are going to start considering a sub-30 result for Labour under Cunliffe, the only real way for them is still further up. There is a lot of skirmishing for position at the moment but I wouldn’t expect for there to be full scale engagements until after the Xmas/New Year doldrums.

        National, on the other hand, need a lot to stay in power. They are relying on results going their way in a variety of situations and if only a few of those go the wrong way… well, they’re out.

        tl;dr version: Labour have everything to win, nothing to lose except an election and, if they keep the pace up, will be looking strong going in to the final stretch. National are requiring a lot of things going their way including gerrymandering the electoral system to ensure a coalition partner so that no matter how strong they may be they will always appear shaky in comparison to Labour.

        Even shorter version: Go Labour – make me proud. If you lose this one I’m gonna cry.
        • Grantoc 12.2.1.1

          27 November 2013 at 9:47 pm

          “National on the ropes now”???

          When they’re 10% ahead of Labour in this poll? And, if you consider the results of other recent polls, more than 10% ahead of Labour?

          It’s wishful thinking to say that Nationals on the ropes, based on one poll result where the margin of error is around 3/4%

          Its more accurate to say that Labour’s failing to gain traction, with its results in recent pols varying between around 30 – 34%.
          • felix 12.2.1.1.1

            27 November 2013 at 9:55 pm

            Hello, are you from the past?
            • Grantoc 12.2.1.1.1.1

              28 November 2013 at 7:38 am

              No. Just not getting ahead of myself.
              • weka …

                28 November 2013 at 11:02 am

                National ahead of Labour, so what? You do know what MMP is don’t you?
      • alwyn 12.2.2

        27 November 2013 at 9:16 pm

        Have a look at my comment to Fisiana. Think of some other “ifs”. Say a 1% swing to the Nats.
        Think if Labour beat Hone and Mana are out. I chose the conservative approach, and I don’t mean Conservative with a capital C, either.
        If one is looking at a poll you shouldn’t decide that my party will do better than the poll and the other party will do worse. Once you do that you are just making up numbers and ignoring the poll.
        • Te Reo Putake 12.2.2.1

          27 November 2013 at 9:42 pm

          At least you’re acknowledging National need to make a gain somewhere. In other words, they’re playing catch up. This no longer their election to lose.
    • Te Reo Putake 12.3

      27 November 2013 at 8:59 pm

      Mighty big ‘if’. Any one of the support parties falls over, no National led Government. A 1% shift to the left, no National led Government. Taxi for Mr Key?
    • weka 12.4

      27 November 2013 at 9:17 pm

      I make it more like 62/59 (121 MPs with the overhang). Not so close. Also, hands up who thinks NZF will fail the 5% threshhold?

      L 44
      G 14
      M 1
      =59

      NZF

      MP 3
      UF 1
      N 57
      ACT 1
      =62

      http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0.5&electorateSeats_0=1&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=2&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=11&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=34&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=1&electorateSeats_8=1&partyName_9=Māori+Party&partyVote_9=1.5&electorateSeats_9=3&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=44.5&electorateSeats_10=0&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=3.5&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0.5&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=1.5&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats
      • lprent 12.4.1

        27 November 2013 at 9:23 pm

        Also, hands up who thinks NZF will fail the 5% threshhold?

        Not me. Their base constituency is growing slowly. Certainly isn’t shrinking.
        • Rogue Trooper 12.4.1.1

          27 November 2013 at 9:27 pm

          sigh, Yep, and the Colon Craig limited appeal ain’t shiftin’ much of those seasoned warhorses.
        • Fisiani 12.4.1.2

          27 November 2013 at 10:35 pm

          The NZF constituency is and always have been steadily dying or dementing just like Winston.
          • lprent 12.4.1.2.1

            27 November 2013 at 11:17 pm

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?
            • Fisiani 12.4.1.2.1.1

              28 November 2013 at 9:58 am

              In 2011 it was obvious that Labour would and could not win. Voters therefore deserted Labour in droves giving them their lowest ever vote and some of that vote ended up with Winston. Thus with a resurgent Labour led by The Cunliffe those votes will return home and have done so already according to the polls. The true base for Winston was about 4% and 90% of that base are extremely elderly. Just take a look at the audience in his meetings. 6 years after 2008 the Winston First base is thus about 3% due to natural attrition. He still needs to find another 40,000 mugs to reach the 112,000 threshold. The possible mugs are more likely to go with the Conservatives as they have a leader who is in good health and likely to stand in 2014 and all the way through to 2017 unlike Winston.
          • lprent 12.4.1.2.2

            27 November 2013 at 11:21 pm

            Damn near doubled between 2008 and 2011 eh? I think it got more votes in 2011 than it did in 2005.

            Perhaps you should treat your own political delusions?

            Basically NZF targets specific groups well. I suspect at present it is growing its voter base because the Key government is making politicians look very evil again. The only problem they probably have this election is succession planning…
      • alwyn 12.4.2

        27 November 2013 at 9:24 pm

        Yeah, well I did assume that the Maori party would have trouble holding on to 3 electorate seats when both Tariana and Pita quit. Your approach can however easily be argued.
      • Zorr 12.4.3

        27 November 2013 at 9:25 pm

        +hand up

        However, I think you are being generous there because ACT is unlikely to survive (you have to calculate their odds of still existing before you even include them in the figures :P) and UF not collapsing under the weight of all that hypocrisy and hair.

        Then, on top of that, you have the Maori Party bleeding support and up against a resurgent Labour.

        I would say that the only figures that matter at all (and that requires us to think polls are anything other than self serving figures :P) at the moment are Nat vs Lab/Green because the more minor parties are in such precarious positions that until we get closer to the election we will have no idea of how it will turn out for them.
        • weka 12.4.3.1

          27 November 2013 at 9:39 pm

          Whereas I think it’s a mistake to assume this is a two horse race. The election will be decided by the parties smaller than LG/N. Better to be thinking that through now I reckon.

          Also, RM says if an election were held today, hence the inclusion of ACT. I’m happy to take them out if someone makes the case (just put Bad’s hypothesis in the calculator, see above. It’s minus ACT, plus a rejigging of the Maori vote). But I don’t think we can assume or rely on the disappearance of UF. Or NZF. Unfortunately.
          • bad12 12.4.3.1.1

            27 November 2013 at 10:11 pm

            Weka, on the numbers it is entirely in the hands of Labour/Green whether they occupy the treasury Benches after November 2014,

            This would tho i suggest require that both Labour and the Green’s party strategists convince them of a number of positions both party’s must take at that election,

            The first,(and one i do not believe for a moment will occur), would be for Labour to contest neither Te Tai Tokerau or Waiariki only campaigning for the Party votes in those two electorates,

            The second which i have already mentioned a couple of times is for the Labour and Green Party’s to identify all their voters in the electorates which the ACT and Conservative Parties have been given the ‘nod’ by National and campaign directly to such supporters that they vote strategically for the National candidate,(of course National might stymie such electioneering by simply not standing a candidate),

            Had Labour/Green candidates convinced 2000 odd voters of the above in the Epsom 2011 ballot,(out of a combined 7000 and something votes), the Act Party would have been toast as Banks only sneaked past National’s candidate by 2000 odd votes…
        • alwyn 12.4.3.2

          27 November 2013 at 9:42 pm

          If we do as you say than we can just as easily say that we shouldn’t take any notice of this poll at all. One cannot say I will take the numbers that I like and ignore the ones I don’t like and have any valid discussion at all. Of course we can’t take much notice of any of the figures a year out but that means why should we take account of the figures for any of the major parties either.
          Let’s say National go up to 48%, Labour down to 31% and the Green party to 9%. Nobody else gets an electorate seat of 5%.
          On the other hand why bother. Just take the numbers that this poll gives us and see what they imply.
          • Zorr 12.4.3.2.1

            27 November 2013 at 10:14 pm

            The point that I am trying to make is that there are a lot of noise in polls. In this election (as opposed to some of the past elections), all the minor parties have serious issues that are external to just winning votes. If you want me to list them, I can… here I go

            Mana – as much as they could strengthen Labours chances by winning an electorate seat, it requires Labour to stand aside to make it a sure thing and that is unlikely

            Maori Party – are they retiring? Are they holding on for just one more election? Who the hell knows – I doubt they even know themselves. Add in to that they have effectively sold their soul to National for the baubles and that 3% may just disappear in to the ether if they fail to win electorate seats.

            ACT – need to John Banks to not go to jail and still win an electorate seat

            UF – who knows what Dunne is up to? Add in to that the fact he may have completely spent his political capital now – once again, needs to win an electorate seat

            Conservatives – once again, need to find an electorate and then convince them that a carpet bagging Christian who has cut a deal with John Key is someone worth voting for

            NZF – need to get over 5% – but, as lprent rightly pointed out, their constituency is only growing so maybe I should up their chances

            However, apart from NZF every single party is relying on winning an electorate seat and hoping that a contender (because, lets face it, a strong one isn’t necessarily needed) doesn’t come along to push them off their perch. This is why I feel that the minor parties aren’t worth placing weight on at this point until things shake out further.
            • alwyn 12.4.3.2.1.1

              28 November 2013 at 6:48 pm

              There are some interesting things there I agree
              A couple of comments I would make are.
              Mana. I would have thought that Hone was safe but that he didn’t have coat tails and would remain by himself. I don’t know that Labour would really want to work with him though and may go all out to beat him.

              Maori I think Flavell is safe. and one electorate is all they need.

              ACT I don’t know. They may be dead but they can probably rake up enough money and a decent candidate to keep Epsom. It doesn’t need to be Banks though.

              UF Dunne is a very, very good electorate MP and he is still keen. I don’t think Labour can beat him and I don’t think National is going to try to hard.

              Conservatives God knows. They at least have the money to compete with the tax-payer funded campaigns (unlimited travel etc) of the parties that are already in Parliament but I don’t really think they’ll make it.

              NZF This is the interesting one. I am beginning to wonder whether Winnie, and let’s face it he IS the party, has the energy anymore. If you look at the Roy Morgan poll numbers he is slipping a bit. In 2012 they got 5% or more in 18 of 22 polls. In 2013 they have only got 5% in 10 of 22 polls. I think that they may slip below the radar again.
              In 2012 they averaged 5.3% but in 2013 only 4.5% in each poll.
        • bad12 12.4.3.3

          27 November 2013 at 9:44 pm

          ACT may yet also have one more twist in the electoral wind befor the noose finally shuts off the oxygen supply,

          i had a listen to ACT Party Prez John Boscowan talking on RadioNZ this afternoon where Banks’s chances were being discussed, altho He didn’t directly say so in words i get the distinct impression that Boscowan was intimating that ‘the Board’ just might cut Banks loose as their Epsom candidate no matter what happens with the ‘trial’

          Given a ‘cleaner’ candidate and another ‘nod’ towards them from Slippery the PM, the Actors might still, sadly, have a last gasp in them…
13. Mike S 13

    27 November 2013 at 9:45 pm

    Speaking of polls, how do they poll people?

    The reason I ask is that I’ve never been asked in a poll and neither has anyone I know or anyone they know. Which seems a bit odd. Do they only phone landlines? Or do they stop and ask people in the street?
    • Colonial Viper 13.1

      27 November 2013 at 10:07 pm

      on the RM results page they say they contact both landlines and mobiles…a few commentators here on The Standard have been rung by polling companies before. I have too, but quite a few years back now, and none recently.
      • Mike S 13.1.1

        29 November 2013 at 12:33 am

        Thanks CV. Any idea how they get the mobile numbers? I ask this because in my case, there’s no connection between my name and my mobile number as I use a prepaid. This is the same with pretty much all of my friends, that is no landline and a prepaid mobile.

        Looking at what I’ve written, that’s probably a fairly good reason why none of us has ever been involved in a poll. D’oh !

        Still, I’d be interested to see how big of a slice of eligible voters they are missing out and particularly whether or not those people are generally similar in terms of parties they vote for. Myself and most of the people I know are what I guess you’d call left leaning voters and in my opinion, that would be the case with most people in the same situation. (Just a guess obviously but to be honest, the few right leaning voters I associate with tend to have landlines and / or mobile accounts.)

        I could easily see a large number of the not so well off having no landline and at most a prepaid mobile. Again just my opinion but I would assume the majority of these people would also vote for leftish parties.

        I guess I’m trying to figure out why National has such a high polling percentage as I literally don’t know anyone who would vote for National if there were an election tomorrow. Even Dad, who has voted national all his life without even thinking about it, has said he wouldn’t vote for John Key again.
        • Andrew 13.1.1.1

          29 November 2013 at 10:24 am

          One approach is to randomly generate numbers within prefixes. Then connection test them. Then sample the connected numbers randomly and in proportion to prefix sizes (this is known as RDD sampling).

          According to a tweet I saw, RM appear to do something similar to this:
          http://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/07/15/a-wee-bit-more-info-to-add-to-the-poll-methods-grid/

          Presumably they control somehow for overlap with their landline sample frame – such as screening out most of those they call on cells because they also have a landline (because they are covered by the landline sample frame), or weighting the results, or targeting a certain number who also have landlines and a certain number who don’t.
        • Andrew 13.1.1.2

          29 November 2013 at 10:54 am

          When I was at Uni I didn’t know anyone *at all* who supported National (at least nobody told me they did). Now I’m in the private sector I know a lot more people who support National. I think it’s just that my social connections have changed.

          Although some people who post here really hate polls, the thing is, *nobody* knows a representative group of NZers. People might think they do, but they really don’t. You might know a good cross-section by age, gender, location, income, and ethnic group – but what about other things that can influence political preference – such as what movies people have seen, books they have read, socialisation, etc?

          So *good* polls or surveys are a good way we can find out what people very different to ourselves might think.
14. phil 14

    27 November 2013 at 9:58 pm

    “We have no right in NZ”. Fisiani, don’t you mean “we have no rights in NZ”. The latter is more accurate. Talk to The Pike River families, Kim Dot Com, Canterbury Regional Council, Christchurch EQ residents, forced council amalgamations, DOC Ruataniwha officers, caregivers of special needs family members, parents of roast buster teenagers, right to swim in unpolluted rivers etc. The so called ‘right’ wing in NZ is far right, it’s just that we have the MSM media telling us that Lab/green is far left. Selling of profit making Assets is far right in my book. As is knowingly despoiling the environment. Not to mention cutting workers rights and taxes of the rich.
15. McFlock 15

    27 November 2013 at 10:45 pm

    Tragedy. Wail. Labour with margin of error movement, still in their 30-33% natural level. When oh when will they get the leader I support, the country will jump behind labour then. [Yawn] /sarc
    • Colonial Viper 15.1

      29 November 2013 at 10:58 am

      Hey Flockie. The large movement of male support away from Labour and towards National has little to do with who is Leader.
      • McFlock 15.1.1

        29 November 2013 at 1:52 pm

        Ah. All the wimmins fault then.
16. ak 16

    27 November 2013 at 10:50 pm

    Heads up.

    The Marketing Party knows better than any the importance of leading into the break in election year.

    Hard, hard push on NO required, starting now if not sooner. TV ads, billboards and newsworthy gimmicks please.

    And brace for a most serious distraction: major benny-bash; very, very soon.
17. Tracey 17

    28 November 2013 at 7:44 am

    I wonder how does hooten reconcile his poll with these results. Different demographic? What was the methodology. Does it realky exist?
18. Tanz 18

    28 November 2013 at 4:07 pm

    Oh, yay fo Colin Craig, the light at the end of the tunnel, the brigadier that we very much need. Woohoo!!!!
19. Crunchtime 19

    28 November 2013 at 5:29 pm

    It really depends on

    1. Labour’s performance in the coming months, particularly Cunliffe of course but I think we need to see a growing sense of unity and for that ugly blue/purple streak to be gently, gradually surgically removed

    2. A growing sense of unity and pragmatism in the strategic thinking between Labour and Green. Not political thinking, not policy thinking, strategic. I think we’ve seen enough in the last few elections to know that politics and policy don’t win elections. Being able to market your policy effectively wins elections.

    Depending on how well Cunliffe, Labour, Turei, Norman and the Greens do at this, and how well the media deals with it (and is dealt with), I think we’ll see a trend upwards and anywhere up to a 10% swing towards Labour/Green. Maybe even more?

    But we gotta be hard-nosed about this.

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