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Trends good for Left, much work to do

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 78 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags: , ,

It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then see polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads (‘National’s still well ahead of Labour, nothing to see here’) and look at the trends. They tell a story of a government well past its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?

The TV1 and TV3 polls are pretty useless because they’re so infrequent that you can’t look at movements month by month and you can’t know if a given poll is an odd-ball out of line with the trends but they both show the same thing as the Roy Morgans – that National/ACT’s support peaked in September/October 2009 and has fallen since. For this graph, I’ve added New Zealand First into the ‘Left’ with Labour and the Greens because it’s clear he can work with them and not with National, and it’s pretty likely they’ll get up over 5% in the end.

So, significant falls for the Right and rises for the Left in the past year and a bit. Note the decline in ‘other’, too. That’s the Maori Party and United Future, which is not even registering now. Now, let’s just look at the gap between the two potential governing blocs.

According to all three polls, the gap has more than halved since Sept/Oct 09 – the only difference being how big the gap was in the first place and how much remains. If we were to project these trends to November, the Left could be well ahead of the Right or within about 5% – striking distance.

This is why waiting until November was such a huge mistake. Support will ebb away due to the failing economy, oil prices, public service cuts, asset sales, and the edges coming off Brand Key (he lost 10% of his support as preferred PM in three months according to both the TV1 and TV3 polls). The longer until the election, the more chance Key has of losing.

Key’s best chance remains having 4% or so of the anti-National vote wasted on NZF. That was the reason for Key ruling out working with Winston. He was hoping to break NZF’s resurgence. It seems he failed. In fact, he seems to have galvanised NZF support.

Things are trending the right way for the Left but the rest of the gap won’t close by itself. Its up to the Left, not just the party hierarchies, you and me as well, to make the case for switching from National to a Left party (back to a Left party, for most of the target voters). We need to get something between 2% and 6.5% of voters to move away from National. Labour, the Greens, and NZF will all be making strong cases against cuts and privatisation. These are the two topics they would all be well advised to focus on because clear majorities of voters support their positions.

Now, Rob Salmond decided to have a go at me over my poll posts the other day. I didn’t get to the end of his 2000-odd word treatise but the point was that one shouldn’t try to extrapolate from past polling trends because long-term trends don’t exist. David Farrar linked to the post and said exactly the opposite thing – you can’t draw conclusions from short-term trends. (Trevor Mallard also linked to it, but I couldn’t ascertain his point).

Both Salmond and Farrar are right and they’re both wrong. There clearly are multi-year trends in polls. Typically, a party’s popularity will rise over several years until it gains power, then it will peak in popularity a year or two later and begin a gradual descent – think Labour from the mid-90s through the 2000s, or National’s rise mirroring Labour’s decline from 2002 to 2009, when National’s support peaked. I believe there’s little parties can do about these tides except affect how quickly they go in or out. My projections are simply indicators of where the trends are heading. They are not intended to be predictions of actual numbers. I would note that the Roy Morgans are trending in line with the trend lines I drew months ago.

Of course, during election campaigns, support levels can change rapidly and unpredictably but they change from the levels that the parties go into the campaign with. They can also change rapidly in response to unpopular government policies even when the Opposition is weak – look at Kevin Rudd’s downfall after he announced the mining tax and look at how support for the Conservatives and Lib Dems has plummeted in the UK because of their austerity measures.

Key, so far, has avoided unpopular policies but the cuts are coming and so are asset sales. Both the trend and the campaign ought to come out against the Right this year. When you look beyond the simplistic question ‘is National ahead of Labour?’ to the reality of changing voter preferences between the potential governments, it’s clear that this is going to come down to the wire.

PS. Just saw Farrar’s post on the polls: “Many on the left claimed that [the asset sales policy] would reverse the lead in the polls.” No-one claimed that the lead would flip overnight. We’ve said privatisation will narrow the gap and the gap is narrowing.

78 comments on “Trends good for Left, much work to do”

  1. What I would like to know is why did TVNZ and TV3 come out with polls on the same day? And why did Roy Morgan delay the announcement of its regular poll?

    The timing was poor. The Government had a shocker last week (beneficiaries and bad choices and BMWs) and it is a shame that the polling did not occur this week.

    • Marty G 1.1

      yeah. the TV1 and TV3 polls were completed over a week ago which means they were largely conducted before the asset sales issue really blew up on National and completely before the limo/poor budgeting stories.

      But, to be fair, it does take time to crunch the numbers and apply the ‘witches’ brew’ of re-weightings that are needed to make sure a poll’s sample reflects the general population’s demographic make-up. Each polling company has its own, secret, formulas for these re-weightings.

      The Roy Morgan is twice a month. To keep it that way, every so often there’s a three-week, rather than two-week, gap. It’ll be out this Thursday probably.

    • Salsy 1.2

      Is the Roy Morgan out? I still cant find it and the last one was feb 4

  2. Alistair 2

    A very good read.

    Whatever your view on Peters may be he knows how to write a speech that attracts attention, raise emotions, and gain votes. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1102/S00190/speech-peters-public-meeting-kelston-community-hall.htm

    Leave it to him to deal with asset sales and close the polling gap.

    • patriot_nz 2.1

      I read Winston’s speech yesterday and was impressed with it. I agree with him- this is the last chance to save New Zealand as a sovereign nation.

      And as for those polls- I despair. This feels like the 90’s. It took a whole decade to get rid of the neolibs last time- we just don’t have that sort of time and it is almost too late now anyway. People are starting to agitate on the net about National, but maybe those voices are people who would voted left anyway.

      New Zealand is an unusual place in that the most able people leave- some 25% of them. I do seriously wonder if the intelligence bell curve has been pushed way to the left in New Zealand and we have a population that cannot see cause and effect. Either that or that vicious streak that runs through the people here means that half of the population simply don’t care about anyone or anything.

      • Marty G 2.1.1

        “This feels like the 90′s”

        If we had had MMP in 1993 then a Labour-Alliance government would have formed 53% of the vote. And in 1996 everyone expected NZF to go with Labour when they voted for Winston.

        Remember, the people of this country have been smart enough to vote for Labour-led governments every time except twice from 1978 to now. FPP defeated us three times – 78, 81, 93 – Winston’s betrayal got us in 96, and Brand Key got us in 2008. I think it’s unfair and too easy to say the people are too dumb to vote what’s best for them.

        • Anthony C 2.1.1.1

          I wouldn’t say dumb, but a large percentage of the middle vote only break their apathy once they start to get hit hard (or their kids get hit). By then, just like the 90’s the damage is done.

          I’d suggest a lot of these people are busy, don’t have time to engage fully and just have MSM snippets to guide their decisions.

          Also seems to be a national surge of anti-intellectualism at them moment…

        • patriot_nz 2.1.1.2

          Marty- yes- I hear what you are saying about the FPP voting system and how it cost the left in the 90’s. But in spite of having MMP now it feels like it is going to be just as difficult to get rid of the neolibs as it was in the 90’s. And more people cared back then about fairness and egalitarianism.

          I do think seeing cause and effect is a problem in general in politics. The rise of the Tea party in the USA seems to me to be a prime example. Screwed over by the right for decades, some people’s response is to go further to the right in their anger. They just don’t seem to realise the right outsourced their jobs years and years ago and have stopped them from getting healthcare etc. And the left has totally failed the people as well whenever they got the chance to take power over those decades.

          I think NZ might be a different place if it wasn’t for Australia mopping up our thinkers, movers and shakers. People leave instead of agitating for change.

  3. Carol 3

    Marty:

    Its up to the Left, not just the party hierarchies, you and me as well, to make the case for switching from National to a Left party (back to a Left party, for most of the target voters).

    Yes, I was thinking this morning that we need a grassroots, groundswell to show the left parties the way we want to go. We could do with a widely publicised (posters, word-of-mouth, blogs, etc), nation-wide, day of demonstrations, of the “NZ is not forsale” kind.

    • Alistair 3.1

      Winston, Phil, Russell, Hone leading a “NZ Not For Sale” march. Is this the main issue that unifies the Left?

    • neoleftie 3.2

      sounds like a fine plan – we’ll call it the ‘long march’ but seriously apart from a jaded local party organisation and a party elite labour is lacking in an organisation
      the devolpment of long term imbedded ‘cells’ is one option or ‘tea parties’ or even plunket to stimulate and modify understanding and expand the base support for the ‘catch all party’.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.1

        I think all these ideas and more need to be considered. There have to be new ways and new formats of getting people involved in the Labour Party.

        Too many Labour meetings I’ve attended would put the living dead back to sleep. Of course there have also been a few doozies :D

        • neoleftie 3.2.1.1

          well both my electorates over the years have had Labour cabinet ministers as MP’s so the level of feedback has been interesting over the years and my highschool umm ‘political discussion group’ had the future labour leader as an active participant. kinda molded from a young age to realising the truths about inequality i guess

        • Jum 3.2.1.2

          Colonial Viper
          Trouble is, these people working in the background, get little cabinet/party support when they try to fundraise – a high profile Labour MP rolling his or her sleeves up would be really useful. They need to get their faces out there actually meeting the people who raise their money for them. Money is tight. A garage sale by a Labour group is on in Papakura this Saturday, according to an ad I saw. Who is going to be there to support that? Those are where you meet the people, not at some ra ra event where the people are going to vote for Labour anyway.

          Money is tight for the real people of NZ and these fundraisers are pulling the stops out to dream up new ways of making money for Labour to fight the election. They’re doing it because they know this year will save New Zealand if Labour gets in or Americanize New Zealand if Key gets in with his automatic mandate to sell. (Notice I said Labour and Key; there is multi talent in Labour in Parliament but only Key in National).

          Some actors that are agin the TPPA could take part.

          Anyone can paint a board ‘NZ Not For Sale’ or ‘Vote for Key is a Mandate to Sell out NZers’.

  4. Zaphod Beeblebrox 4

    If National are only sitting at 52 or 53% at present, they are in trouble. Its unlikely they would regain lost voters at this stage. When you see they way the news cycle turns like it has over the past few weeks- its only a matter of time before the polls turn. Have a look at how things turned against Labor in the federal and Victorian elections last year the longer campaigning went on.

    Given the way food and fuel prices are going this year- the cost of living argument is going to be a killer for Key. No amount of demonising welfare recipients and public servants is going to hide that.

  5. nadis 5

    so you are saying you can create a trend from two points?

    go on, calculate the confidence interval around the null hypothesis you are making……… that would be enlightening. When doing statistical analysis you can not wish away inconvenient data and when you do extrapolate, the confidence you have around your forecast is more than slightly dependent on the amount of data you use. If you handed in this analysis in a stage one stats paper to me I would send it back with an F.

    However, do i believe anecdotally that the gap is closing- yes it always will in in an election year. The sad reality though for labour is that the left could scratch out a win if it had a leader who resonated even slightly with wider population (not sure who that is – personally I could identify with a Grant Robertson leader/Shane Jones deputy team. Grant at least looks like a technocrat rather than an idealogue.) The mistakes National have been making lately are as significant as any of the last term cock ups under Clarke. My prediction is the election will be very close but Nats will govern mostly alone, and Labour will kick themselves senseless as they realise how close they got with a fifth choice leader (hey at least he is more preferred than Helen now!) and a timid front bench of time servers designed by factional tradeoffs.

    You know, the ultimate nightmare for Labour will be when Winston starts polling higher than Goff as preferred prime minister (hint: Labour strategists, devise a strategy to deal with this). This will be comedy gold, I can already see the fun Key, the media and bloggers will have with that. There’s hours of stand up comedy embedded in that idea.

  6. handle 6

    You don’t foresee a problem getting Winston to agree to work with the Greens given his past history?

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      Depends how much he wants to stop the Nats, doesn’t it?

    • Bright Red 6.2

      NZF supported the ETS and he’s on the same page when it comes to economic sovereignty/asset sales.

      that’s a difference between the conservative right like Winston and the neoliberals who now dominate national. He believes in state interventionist economices and economic sovereignty – the neoliberals don’t. Winston left National over their neoliberal reforms.

      Economically, Winston now closer to the Left than the Right. It’s on the social front that he is conservative and the Left would be well advised to concentrate on economic rather than social issues anyway in the sixth Labour-led government.

      • Colonial Viper 6.2.1

        It’s on the social front that he is conservative and the Left would be well advised to concentrate on economic rather than social issues anyway in the sixth Labour-led government.

        Its probably what Labour should have done anyway in its last term (focus far more on economic reforms), but they seemed much less energised by then.

        There is a good interface between the social front and the economic front – 5 weeks annual leave, 20 weeks paid parental leave, etc. I don’t think that Peters will have any issues supporting initiatives in that vein, and they are excellent ones for building community cohesion and supporting individual health.

      • handle 6.2.2

        If Winston’s position is close to the Greens, why did he refuse to be in government with them?

        • Blighty 6.2.2.1

          times were different. he was in a position to extract more leverage by keeping the greens out. and the greens are different now too

          • Lanthanide 6.2.2.1.1

            Yes, if the votes had come out different, such that Labour could have easily chosen Labour + Green + X, with National needing National + X + Y + Z, then either Dunne or Winston probably would’ve sucked it up and gone with the Greens. But that’s not how the calculus played out.

  7. You might like to consider the size of the Parliamentary blocks, instead of the overall percentages. If NZF goes from 2% to 4% then the left goes up under your analysis, but that could actually be worse for it.

    • Lanthanide 7.1

      If you read the text, he says that:
      1. He is assuming NZFirst gets over 5%
      2. National’s best chance is if NZFirst sits around 4% and doesn’t meet the threshold.

  8. Afewknowthetruth 8

    I still cannot figire out why so many people are so enthusiastic to replace one set of liars and clowns with another set of liars and clowns.

    I suppose it’s just that people are ingnorant of the facts and too thick to see that politics is just a game played out at the kindergarten level -all of it designed to make the proles think their vote is worth something.

    Historic economic and social arrangements are in the process of collapsing globally right now. The ship’s going down and it will make no difference which bunch of clowns [that constitute governments and pretend to know what they are doing] is in power.

    I suppose ordinary people will start to get it when fuel is $3 a litre and they can’t afford what’s on the supermarket shelves, or when the supermarket shelves are empty.

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      If you think governments, and their response to impending crisis, are 100% interchangeable with no difference between them, then you’re in denial.

      Now, is Labour likely to handle peak oil better than National? On balance it looks like ‘no’, but there’s much more room for Labour to manoeuvre – they certainly seem more interested in helping those worst-off in society, a demographic that is likely to increase dramatically should certain peak oil scenarios eventuate.

      I think out of anyone in parliament the Greens are likely to handle peak oil better than anyone else (see their insistence on public transport and biking). Does that mean they’re going to be a magic bullet and solve all our problems with a snap of their fingers? Of course not.

      As far as basic necessities of life go, NZ has all the ingredients to provide for it’s population without anyone suffering – most developed countries actually do. The question is whether we choose to organise ourselves economically and socially to do so. Such choices may seem unthinkable at the moment, but things can change very very rapidly when the public at large get serious about it – just look at Egypt.

      Because we have a choice coming up later this year, surely it’s better to choose the team that you think will do the most good in the situation, even if they fall far far short of what you think is necessary to solve the problem.

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.1

        Now, is Labour likely to handle peak oil better than National? On balance it looks like ‘no’, but there’s much more room for Labour to manoeuvre

        LAB are far friendlier to public transport, farm waste sourced biofuels, home energy efficiency measures, policies which build localised community and industrial capabilities than National.

        Is it enough, hell no. But its a far better starting point than you’ll get with Bill and John.

      • Afewknowthetruth 8.1.2

        The last Labour Government was given mountains of information on peak oil (from 2001 onwards by the way, a time when some mitigation would have been possible) and they chose to completely ignore all of it and carry on as thoiugh energy supply was of no imporatnce whatsoever..

        Don’t forget it was that clown Cullen who invested billion of our dollars in international market that were about to plunge, and so lost billions of our money. And right now there is a new speculative bubble forming

        I can assure you I have numerous letters from Labour Ministers and MPs over the years that all clearly demonstrate they are all f**wits.

        In case you did not know. peak oil was between 2005 and 2008. We are on the way down right now and it is not even on the agenda for discussion. Nor will it be.

        If you have such confidence in Labour I suggest you write to Phil Goff and ask what his strategy for dealing with Peak OIl is. I 100% guarantee you will get back a fob-off letter that is already in the PC, one that blathers on about NZ being given advice by the IEA (which admitted it was wrong about PO in Novermber 2010 by the way: you don’t see that in the headlines.) , and nonsense about the Energy Conservation Authroity, biofuels and other drivel. The vast majority of policians are only capapable of churning out drivel because drivel corresponds to thier intelligence level. Oh, and don’t forget we are going to set up new free trade deals … as per Helen Clark’s sabotage the NZ economy strategy.

        As for the Green Party. what a joke they are. They sat on Peak Oil information for 6 years and did nothing, then came out with idiotic strategies based on biofuels, which we all know are technically flawed from the outset and are in many respects worse than using oil. And the Grens came out even more idiotic strategies, like promoting tourism as a ‘sustanable growth industry’. Sorry mate, the Greens are saboteurs and f**wits, just like the rest.

        ‘even if they fall far far short of what you think is necessary to solve the problem.’

        The time for solutions was the last time Labour were in power. It’s too late now. I’d be surprised if present economic arrangements last until election day. Breat oil is now over $100, a level which causes the world economy to implode.

        As I have said many times. most people are totally ignorant of the facts and just don’t get it. They are unreachable and are basically self-selecting for destitution.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1

          So because, during 2001 to 2008, when there was incontrovertible proof that peak oil was happening the Labour government refused to do anything, you are assuming that in the coming years when there (presumably) will be incontrovertible proof that Labour will still choose not to do anything?

          Yes, it would’ve been nice if Labour had done something during that time. But what do you honestly expect – if they’d started making realistic changes in 2001, they would’ve lost the 2002 election and we would’ve had TAX CUTS!! under a national government anyway. I think you should be blaming the system in equal parts to how you blame Labour – they can only work within the social, economic and political framework set up in this country, a framework that is completely incapable of dealing with peak oil and climate change sort of problems. The general public are mindless sheep and won’t wake up to peak oil until it is screaming at them in the face, by which point it will of course be too late.

          That, of course, is all history. Given that our system is giving us a choice later this year, would you rather choose to go with the party that has a slim hope of doing something meaningful to address the situation, or would you rather choose the party that is almost certain to stall for time and make things worse through inaction?

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1.1

            Sorry, that first sentence should say:
            “when there was NO incontrovertible proof that peak oil was happening ”

            That is, while many people were raising the peak oil problem with Labour, there wasn’t any proof you could look at, beyond reasonable doubt, and say “this proves it”.

            • Draco T Bastard 8.1.2.1.1.1

              There was plenty of evidence around to say that Peak Oil would happen in that decade. It’s been around since the 1960s. No proof because the proof would only be available after Peak Oil. Labour failed to do anything with the data that had been building up over 40+ years and they still look like they aren’t going to do anything. They really need to come out and say that they are planning for the decline in oil availability.

              • Lanthanide

                Hubbert originally predicted oil would peak in 1995. He was sorely wrong from two major factors: hugely reduction in use during the 70’s and early 80’s, but he was also wildly off in terms of total production.

                That’s the problem with predicting something as massively fundamental as oil production and consumption: there are many many people all over the world doing everything they can to improve the oil flow, as well as other people simultaneously making oil use more efficient or trying to replace it with other fuels (no oil-fuelled power plants any more, they all use coal because it’s more cost effective).

                Even if it turns out that we did peak between 2005 and 2008 (and there’s still a chance we could exceed those levels), that particular peaking hasn’t made a huge difference to how we’re living at the moment, and it may not for some years yet. Perhaps ‘peak oil’ isn’t as much a problem as ‘peak plateau oil’, and as long as you realise you’re on a plateau before you fall off, reasonable mitigation can be undertaken.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  He may have been out by a bit but his theory was proven when US hit their local Peak Oil in 1971. We should have started planning for Peak Oil then or, even better, limiting oil use and that was 40 years ago. There really is no excuse for heading into oil decline unprepared.

            • Afewknowthetruth 8.1.2.1.1.2

              If you know anything about government and risk management you will know that governemnt pours millions of dollars into evaluating risks that have a close to zero probability …. volcanic eruptions with a 1 in 500 or less chance of occruing etc. The government puts zero money into evaluating peak oil, which has a 100% certainty. In that sense they are all completely insane. It’s the same for abrupt cliamte change, which is a bigger risk that peak oil and gets zero attention.

              I undestand why all this lunacy continues: everything is driven MED and the insane rantings of economists, who, amongst other things believe in perpetual growth on a finite planet. If thaty’s not insantiy, what is?

              When you are dealing with a life-threatening situation, which peak oil is, you look for the best evidence. Contrary to what you say, there was incontrovertible evidence peak oil would occur before 2020 and it was nearly a certainty it would occur before 2010. Oil extraction data from 1998 onwards indicated we were closing in on the bumpy plateuau. (Now we about to fall off it).

              As anyone who has studied the topic knows, the Hirch Report to the US government highlighted he fact that any society would need 20 years to transition, i.e. even if peak oil were as far out as 2020, preparations needed to have commenced around the year 2000.

              If you study the topic you will note that the first warming was given loud and clear in 1956 and by 1971, when the US peaked and went into decline (just as Hubbert had prediceted it would) it was obvious to anyone with a brain that the world was in deep trouble.

              If you are looking for solutions, do not look ot any of the current crop of polical hacks They only know the politics of failure.

              The part I don’t get: why people think they have to choose between one bunch of idiots and saboteurs and another bunch of idiots and saboteurs. instead \of looking outside the box. I guess it’s just blind faith.

              Brent oil is nearly $103: the next round of collapse will be underway soon.

              • Colonial Viper

                If you are looking for solutions, do not look ot any of the current crop of polical hacks They only know the politics of failure.

                Are you trying to be a fraking idiot? There are two little things in the way of change happening the way I believe you would like to see it happening.

                1) Our highly fiscalised, globalised interest bearing debt based capitalist economy. Which demands growth growth growth, even if it kills all of us in the process.

                2) Our interlocking system of inefficient, slow representative democracy, moneyed capitalist interest groups and disengaged ill-informed short-termism voters.

                Trying to look for a hero politician or huddle of hero politicians is useless because unless you deal with the above you will always get similar results. Different monkeys playing out variations on the same tune on the same grinder. And you appear (to me anyway) to have no ideas with how to deal with the above.

                So stop complaining and come up with something useful :D

      • Draco T Bastard 8.1.3

        As far as basic necessities of life go, NZ has all the ingredients to provide for it’s population without anyone suffering – most developed countries actually do. The question is whether we choose to organise ourselves economically and socially to do so.

        Although I agree with what you say how you say it is part of the problem. Portraying it as a choice, as you do here, makes people think that we have such a choice between continuing as we are or becoming self-sufficient within renewable limits. It’s not a choice that we have – we must become self-sufficient.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.3.1

          It’s still a choice. Choosing wrongly just has extremely disastrous results.

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.3.1.1

            Well its arguable that western civilisation has been choosing wrongly since the Club of Rome. That’s a hell long time.

            Afewknowthetruth makes good points but at the end of the day appears to have no solutions which will work in a democracy.

            Yell and scream all you like, society is not going to make dramatic changes impacting individual lifestyle until people really get it or are forced to. Think about it. Shower heads were a bridge too far politically for Labour to implement. Try for car-less days, bans on the use of imported consumer products, and restrictions on investing in equity markets and see how long any NZ government lasts.

            The only answers available now exist at the individual and highly localised levels.

            • Lanthanide 8.1.3.1.1.1

              Choosing wrongly has been profitable. So far. It has also broadly improved the living conditions of the majority of the population.

              • Colonial Viper

                No denying that :)

                Well, profitable for the few, onerous for the many, but they don’t matter :)

                • neoleftie

                  in a historical sense, even comparing the last few hundred years, the average worker is far far better off in our time. lets see at a base level most people have a car or access to transport, most if not all have access to a means to improve there lot in life, washing machine, oven, health care etc etc all basic everyday things that everyone in our society has access to and has improved there life. show me anyone even a street person who doesnt have access to a clean running water to bath in…we seem to forget the freedom that we have in our time. We have the freedom to even rant and rage online using the most modern of technology.
                  I even agree with Key – people have opportunity all around them, they have to seize it.
                  Here in this discussion the opportunity should be base arounf the opportunity to engage in the right to vote and learn. grow and engage in what effects there community.

            • Draco T Bastard 8.1.3.1.1.2

              Part of that is because the facts are hidden behind spin and BS. If people had reliable information proving that our present lifestyle cannot be maintained then it’s possible that people would choose better. Unfortunately, the political right always comes out saying that people can have everything they want for nothing.

              • Lanthanide

                The right aren’t the only ones who promise that people can have everything they want. Although I would suggest that the left are forced into doing it or they wouldn’t get elected. Greed, basically.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  We certainly need admission from the politicians of all stripes that we live in a limited world. The Greens seem to get this, Labour I’m not too sure about and National/Act actively deny it. The active denial from the right is what forces the left to cater too the greed as well.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    A lot of Labour Party members know that an exponential path of infinite growth is impossible given the finite resources of a limited physical planet. Whether or not caucus gets it, dunno.

                    • neoleftie

                      i think the labour caucus realises a few things but are ‘locked in’ to certain global pathways that dictate system changes

  9. dave 9

    So how does that change things if the Maori Party were put on the Right and NZF doesnot get 5%…. Because that1ll be more accurate.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Although I can’t see why your scenario – which is certainly one distinct possibility – can be called “more accurate”

  10. Rob 10

    It would be nice if those trends continued. The left has a lot to do though trying to make sure that those issues do not die out in the public’s mind before the election.

  11. Rob Salmond 11

    Marty,

    You said: “Rob Salmond decided to have a go at me over my poll posts the other day… [his] point was that one shouldn’t try to extrapolate from past polling trends because long-term trends don’t exist.”

    That was not my point at all. Long term trends undoubtedly exist. Instead, I said that the shape of long term trends are hard to predict, and are not usually linear for more than a few months. That makes year-long linear projections beyond your data of the type you have been publishing really problematic.

    Marty, much of your writing here on The Standard is very, very good. I just think you are overblowing this analysis a bit.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      Quite true that looking at a small flat part of a larger exponential curve and assuming the rest was linear could easily lead to forecast error.

    • Lanthanide 11.2

      But it’s just a trend. The actual data points can still fluctuate around that trendline just as much as they already have in the past.

      Really what he’s saying, for example, is that the polls between Jan 2009 and Dec 2009 might show that National are at 55% support, +/- 5%. Between July 2011 and Nov 2011 we might predict that the polls will show National are at 45% +/- 5%. The trend is showing that the mid point has gone from 55% to 45%, but the individual polls will still bounce around. I don’t really see anything wrong with that.

      It also doesn’t mean Labour are guaranteed to win: the trend line could predict National at 45% +/- 5% and the left block at 45% +/- 5%, but if on election day we end up with Nats on 50% and left block on 40%, the trend line wasn’t wrong.

      The point, really, is to combat this live very prevalent in the media and the public that “National are so far out in front they won’t lose”, but when you actually examine what has been happening in the polls over time, we can predict that at some point the media will wake up with a surprise and say “hang on, Labour suddenly has a chance”. Except it won’t be a surprise to us at all.

      • neoleftie 11.2.1

        well another point could be that the ‘cant be bothered’, un-decided or switch voter might near election time see national ahead in the polls and come out in support of the left block due to the impacting issues on their individual lives and actual want their vote to count against the Tories.

        NB: I wonder if the Lab Strategy is slowly slowly hush hush, let the Nats hang themselves on public outcry over neo liberal policy formulation and then stick it to the Nats closer to the vote time…cant have the Lab message getting diluted or Tory / MSM negitive spin effecting traction with the voter.

  12. interesting 12

    Roy Morgan Poll Just in today:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4631/

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      Didn’t think this would appear until the end of the week!

      LAB down, NZF down, NATs up. Right wing up, Left wing down. Not promising at all. Still doesn’t make sense that Roy Morgan reads a big drop in NZF support when the TVNZ and TV3 polls have him getting a nice blip up.

      LAB numbers remain dead in the water.

      • The Voice of Reason 12.1.1

        The sampling periods may not match, CV. The Roy Morgan is January 31 – February 13th. So the last week’s shenanigans don’t feature in the results.

    • lprent 12.2

      Pretty much statistical jitter numerically.

      The survey period of Jan 31st to Feb 13 means that there wasn’t much interesting stuff in the survey period. Key acting like a prat over food banks was on the 9th. The speech on cutting the front line public services to pay for tax cuts was on the 7th. Even the promise by National to privatize everything to pay for tax cuts was only a few days before the survey period on the Wednesday prior to the survey period and won’t be reflected strongly in the poll*. Everything prior to that was just holidays.

      Yawn and wait for the next one at the end of the month. But I bet that the movement within the statistical variation is going to be screamed up by the hysterics like DPF# and some of the other numerical idiots in the MSM….

      * You usually find that political reactions amongst voters happen no earlier than a fortnight after the event..
      # How he can run a statistically based business is beyond me. Hopefully he does employ someone who isn’t as numerically challenged as he is.

  13. interesting 13

    CV,

    Is it more that the ROy Morgan had NZF artificially high in its previous poll and this is just a rebalancing?

    It seems all three polls have Nats and Labs, and Greens at simmilar numbers.

    The other ones, UNF, ACT, MP seem to all be different in each poll.

    • lprent 13.1

      If you look at the bottom on the page where is has the section “Margin of Error” it gives you the variations you can expect (in a really annoying format).

      The total sample size was 924 so you’d expect that the sample sizes for each major party would be somewhere around 300-450 and those for the minor parties would be only tens of respondents. The margins of error in percentage terms for the main parties wind up as being pretty high (essentially anything below +/- 3% is probably statistical blipping unless it carries over several polls) and those of the minor parties are really jumpy for any single poll.

      The Morgan poll is the best available simply because it is taken about every 2 weeks and allows a series to be looked at for trend. You can’t rely on the absolute percentage figures because they relate to the sampling technique as much as anything else (like the basic flaw that they are land-line polls which over-samples conservatives). The biggest flaw in the Morgan polls is that they don’t have the would not say and undecided in them – which makes a lot of the pontificating on this poll this far out from the election somewhat moot.

      Really they’re useful for indicators of trend.

      • wtl 13.1.1

        In the above link: “Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 2.5%) did not name a party.”

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.2

        The biggest flaw in the Morgan polls is that they don’t have the would not say and undecided in them – which makes a lot of the pontificating on this poll this far out from the election somewhat moot.

        They must have that data, so I wonder why they don’t publish it?

        • lprent 13.1.2.1

          I have never found a good explanation for that. It would certainly make the polls more useful. So would giving some details about the demographic mangling they do. When I’m analyzing canvassing both of those factors are the most interesting. As are the distinct differences between the landline populations and those we have to door knock.

          • neoleftie 13.1.2.1.1

            here an insight i have experienced in my local labour organisation. No leaflets drops to the poorest area in years, no leaflet drops to affluent area even though half the household decider in those liberal household were women. Low telephone polling of poor cause they cannot afford a telephone or worked odd hours. Low engagement with the electorate to generate meaningful dialogue at the grass root level…no wonder the neo-libs are stronger as there whole way of life is expressed in connectiveness.

            • lprent 13.1.2.1.1.1

              Yeah, some of the organizations are a bit pathetic. Especially in capturing the data that they gain and holding it between elections. Or retaining a coherent block system. As well as using it for phamplets we also use it to target areas that we don’t get good phones for door knocking. Means that when we come to campaigning we can use our scarce volunteers as effectively as possible for turning voters out, and we know our electorate.

              I have done most of my electorate work in Mt Albert where I grew up and it is somewhat different.

              Helen was great t doing the community stuff as well. So is David.

              • neoleftie

                unfortunately whilst amazingly generous and caring people and from the deepest red and strongest labour electorates in the country and even the most organised, in the real world the whole structure is lacking…

    • The Voice of Reason 13.2

      For Winston, it reflects that he hasn’t been in the news much this month, therefore NZF drops back to its default position of 2.5%. One interesting fact about the left vote is that Labour has stayed above 30% for 8 months and the Greens have stayed at or above their election night result since 2008. Between them, they have only dipped below a combined 40% a couple of times. There is an stability there that can be built on.

      National, on the other hand, have clearly picked up ACT’s points. Rodney could be a very lonely boy even if the Nats gift him Epsom. Dunne may be a goner as well, but not because of this poll. He’s too small to really feature in the RM, but to win his seat this time round, he’ll probably need a nod and a wink from National too.

      • Colonial Viper 13.2.1

        Labour has got to depose Dunne. He has been hanging around for far too long. With him and Douglas both history, Parliament will be a greatly improved environment.

        • neoleftie 13.2.1.1

          the most amusing times at parliament was witnessing ‘king’ winnie showboat to the gallery. bring back winnie only to cut 2-3% off national

  14. Jan 14

    And in Gisborne the turning of the tide is already complete/
    anti-spam fortune ;)
    http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=21402

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      Go the NAT supporter who said we “can’t afford socialism” – but we can obviously afford tax cuts for the wealthy. Loser!

      • neoleftie 14.1.1

        tinkering with tax rate – yes but tax cuts – havent seen any theory and supporting proven data that suggest tax cuts during a recession leads to a positive outcome.

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    Labour | 19-10
  • Labour names Review Team
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review.  He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban (see further biographical details here). The Review Team...
    Labour | 19-10
  • Labour backs urban development plans
    Auckland Council’s plan to set up an urban development agency is to be applauded and central government should get behind it to make it a success, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. Auckland Council CEO Stephen Town has indicated plans...
    Labour | 18-10
  • New Zealand can be rightly proud of seat on Security Council
    Gaining a seat on the United Nation’s Security Council shows the sort of standing that New Zealand has in the world and the quality of the long campaign that we ran over nearly a decade, says Foreign Affairs spokesperson David...
    Labour | 16-10
  • NZ has opportunity on UN Security Council
    New Zealand has an opportunity to make a major contribution to the strengthening of international law and institutional capacity through its upcoming two-year tenure on the United Nations Security Council, Green Party spokesperson on global affairs, Dr Kennedy Graham said...
    Greens | 16-10
  • MPI still dragging the chain over causes of food bug
    The Ministry of Primary Industries’ release of Environmental Science and Research’s initial reports regarding the sources of a nasty stomach bug will be little comfort to the 127 people affected by it, Labour’s Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “This...
    Labour | 16-10
  • Treasury officials should try working without food
    The Green Party is challenging Treasury officials to work for a week without eating properly, in light of their advice to Government that a food in schools programme is not needed."Treasury's advice was that providing food for children in schools...
    Greens | 15-10
  • Councils need to better protect our drinking water
    Environment Canterbury (ECan) is proposing several variations to its regional land and water plan that will allow for increased nutrient and other pollution from irrigation and intensive agriculture on the Canterbury Plains. Commissioners are hearing submissions on Variation 1 to...
    Greens | 15-10
  • National needs to commit to making NZ workers safe
    The National Government must do more to help make New Zealand workplaces a safer place to work in, Green Party industrial relations spokesperson Denise Roche said today.Data released by Statistics New Zealand today showed that workers in the fishing and...
    Greens | 15-10
  • Key commits to deployment before consultation or analysis
    John Key’s offer to consult Opposition parties on whether to deploy New Zealand forces against ISIS looks increasingly like a PR exercise only, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson, Phil Goff. “The presence of New Zealand’s Chief of Defence Force at a...
    Labour | 15-10
  • National must end ideological opposition to raising income
    If John Key is serious about tackling child poverty he must approach it with an open mind, and overcome his ideological block to raising incomes as a solution, the Green Party said today.Papers released to Radio New Zealand today show...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Pentagon links climate change and terrorism
    Yesterday the Pentagon launched a plan to deal with a threat that “poses immediate risks to national security”; one that “will affect the Department of Defense’s ability to defend the nation”. It wasn’t referring to Ebola or ISIS. It was...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Four Nominees for Labour’s Leadership
    As at 5pm today four valid nominations had been received for the position of Labour Leader, as follows: Andrew Little(nominated by Poto Williams and Iain Lees-Galloway) Nanaia Mahuta(nominated by Louisa Wall and Su’a William Sio) David Parker(nominated by Damien O’Connor...
    Labour | 14-10
  • Green Party calls for consultation over terrorism law changes
    The Green Party has today written to the Prime Minister asking him to engage in wider consultation prior to changing any laws as a result of the recently announced terrorism law reviews, said the Green Party today. In a letter...
    Greens | 14-10
  • MPI must name product and supermarket chain
    The Ministry of Primary Industries must name the product responsible for severe gastroenteritis affecting people around the country, and the supermarket chain distributing it, Labour’s Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “The Ministry seems to be more concerned about protecting...
    Labour | 13-10
  • John Key dishonest about reasons for wanting to change terrorism law
    John Key is misleading the public to push through terrorism law changes under urgency, the Green Party said today. On Sunday, John Key stated that it is not illegal for someone to fight overseas for a terrorist group, such as...
    Greens | 12-10
  • Law changes shaping up to be worse than first thought
    The Prime Minister needs to be up front about exactly what changes he is planning to make to the Employment Relations  Amendment Bill, Labour's spokesperson on Labour Issues Andrew Little says.Interviewed on Q&A yesterday John Key said he did not...
    Labour | 12-10
  • Rapists, not Tinder, the threat to women
    Blame for rape and sexual assault should only ever be laid at the door of the perpetrator, not dating services or the actions of women themselves, Labour’s Associate Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. “Tinder is not the problem and women...
    Labour | 09-10
  • Safer Journeys For People Who Cycle
    You have a rare opportunity to tell the people who are making the decisions on cycling how to make it better. The Cycling Safety Panel is seeking feedback on their draft recommendations for improving the safety of cycling in New...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Subsidising more pollution will undermine water clean-up plan at Te Waihora...
    In 2010, NIWA found Canterbury’s Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere had the worst nutrient status of 140 lakes around New Zealand that it measured. In 2011, the National Government committed to spending $15 million across the country through the Fresh Start for...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Adding value not herbicides
    The HT swedes, and other brassicas, might seem like a good idea to farmers struggling against weeds but like the GE road, is this the path we want our agriculture to be treading? The Federated Farmers President, Dr William Rolleston...
    Greens | 07-10
  • ‘Blame the Planner’ bizarre approach to child poverty
    The National Government is stooping to a bizarre new low in blaming "planning processes" for poverty and inequality, after spending six years doing nothing about either the housing market or child poverty, the Green Party said today. Finance Minister Bill...
    Greens | 07-10
  • Media Advisory
    MANA Leader, Hone Harawira will not be available to speak with media today regarding his release “Recount Just One Step To restoring Credibility”. He is however available for media comment tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th of October, all media arrangements are...
    Mana | 07-10
  • RECOUNT JUST ONE STEP TO RESTORING CREDIBILITY
    “I have applied for a judicial recount of the votes in the Tai Tokerau election because it is one step in trying to restore credibility to the electoral process in the north, and, I suspect, in all other Maori electorates...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA SEEKS TAI TOKERAU RECOUNT
    The MANA Movement is supporting Leader Hone Harawira’s application for a judicial re-count in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate for the 2014 general election. President Lisa McNab says there are a number of serious issues of concern regarding the ability...
    Mana | 07-10
  • We have nothing to fear from Ebola but fear itself
    I suspect most Americans perceive Ebola like this   I can’t work out if the fear being spread within the media about Ebola is deliberate or just ignorance. Yes Ebola is a terrible plague that kills a large percentage of...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – “Meritocracy? I wish.”
    I’d like to start by linking to a post I had published at another site in support of Nanaia Mahuta for the Labour Party leadership election.  She has a reasonable chance, given that she already has the endorsement of Te...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Chocolate milk shortage and creepy Santa? Let’s talk about real news
    Child poverty is still a scarily serious problem in this country and house prices are soaring through the roof to the point where it is simply impossible for the average New Zealander to buy a home. There is also little...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • It’s time to celebrate Kiwi schools and teachers
    Some would have you believe that New Zealand’s schools are in a state of collapse, that your children are not being educated well and that things are going to hell in a hand basket.  That there is no innovation, no...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Ideological Blitzkrieg – Privatization of state housing, more charter sch...
    Pundits in pundit land will tell you that this Government is boring, that Key is the great pragmatist and that it is his ability to create elegant solutions that keeps him the firm favourite in many Kiwi eyes. This ability...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • Hegemony rules but resistance is fertile
    The Prime Minister is a puppet. Not just our current Prime Minister, but given the forces of multinational globalisation, the role of any head of state, is less as independent actor, and more as a puppet of international trends and...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • An open Letter to Sir Bob Jones: demanding a ‘liveable wage’ is not “...
    How out of touch with reality is Sir Bob Jones? You know, that white dude who invested in privatised SOEs after the selling off of our assets in the eighties and made a ludicrous and disgusting amount of money and is...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • My insecurity about the Security Council
    As I write this (on 24 October) it is international UN Day. Of course, you all knew that already, right? Well, the day celebrates the entry into force of the UN Charter in 1945. With the ratification of this founding...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Catherine Delahunty – Back in That House
    Parliament opened this week and I still find it a very odd place. Most of the people are reasonably courteous and friendly, but the rituals are archaic and the rules around issues like the swearing in oath are oppressive and...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Marae Investigates No More
    TVNZ yesterday announced the closure of their Māori and Pacific programmes department. That means they’ve chosen to stop making Fresh, Tagata Pasifika, Waka Huia and Marae Investigates to let independent producers get their hands on these lucrative contracts. This is...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • BLOGWATCH: An Un-Civil War in Labour, eh?
    Earlier today, my attention was directed to an entry that’s just recently appeared on the Slightly Left of Centre blog. It purports to contain the ‘inside word’ from a highly placed NZF source – which is funny, because I’m pretty sure...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Santanomics 101
    Santanomics could mean a number of things. It could be the study and practice of giving. Or it could mean the study and practice of rampant end-of-year commercialism. However, for me today it is the economics of erectingAuckland’s giant Santa...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • SkyCity boss misleads public over workers lost shifts
    SkyCity CEO Nigel Morrison has defended the employment practices at his company in an “Opinion” piece entitled “Human Capital key to corporate success” in the NZ Herald on Thursday. A number of his claims are misleading, contain only partial truths...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Review: Perfect Place
    I went to a Perfect Place on Tuesday night, and what a delight it was. The marshmallows sweetly (and forcefully) handed out pre-show, set the tone for the next hour. Walking up the stairs at The Basement was a complete...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • 5AA Australia – NZ on UN Security Council + Dirty Politics Lingers On
    5AA Australia: Selwyn Manning and Peter Godfrey deliver their weekly bulletin Across The Ditch. General round up of over night talkback issues: Thongs, Jandals and flip-flops… ISSUE 1: New Zealand has been successful in its campaign to become a non...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • When I mean me, I mean my office & when I call whaleoil I mean not as m...
    This. Is. Ludicrous. Green Party co-leader Russel Norman put the first of what are likely to be many questions about Mr Key’s relationship with Slater, asking him how many times he had phoned or texted the blogger since 2008. “None...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • A brief word on describing the Government as ‘boring and bland’
    The narrative being sown is that this Government will be a boring and bland third term. Boring and bland. Since the election, Key has announced he is privatising 30% of state houses without reinvesting any of that money back into housing society’s most...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • More Latté Than Lager: Reflections on Grant Robertson’s Campaign Launch.
    BIKERS? SERIOUSLY! Had Grant Robertson’s campaign launch been organised by Phil Goff? Was this a pitch for the votes of what few Waitakere Men remain in the Labour Party? Was I even at the right place? Well, yes, I was....
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • About Curwen Ares Rolinson
    Curwen Ares Rolinson – Curwen Ares Rolinson is a firebrand young nationalist presently engaged in acts of political resistance deep behind enemy lines amidst the leafy boughs of Epsom. He is affiliated with the New Zealand First Party; although his...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • About Kelly Ellis
    Kelly Ellis.Kelly Ellis – As a child, Kelly Ellis didn’t so much fall into the cracks, but willfully wriggled her way into them. Ejected from Onslow College – a big job in the 70s – Kelly worked in car factories,...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • About Kate Davis
    Kate Davis.Kate Davis – Having completed her BA in English and Politics, Kate is now starting her MA. Kate works as a volunteer advocate at Auckland Action Against Poverty and previously worked for the New Zealand Prostitutes Collective. Kate writes...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Parker does a Shearer – oh for a Labour Leader who can challenge msm fals...
    Sigh. It seems David Parker has done a Shearer… Like a cult and too red – Parker on LabourLabour leadership contender David Parker says Labour borders on feeling like “a cult” and must look at its branding – including its...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • A brief word on the hundreds of millions NZ is spending on the secret intel...
    The enormity of the mass surveillance state NZ Government’s have built carries a huge price tag… Kiwis pay $103m ‘membership fee’ for spyingThe $103 million taxpayer funding of New Zealand’s intelligence agencies is effectively a membership fee for joining the...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Where. Is. Jason. Ede?
    Where. Is. Jason. Ede?...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Labour’s Din of Inequity
    Watching Labour’s leadership candidates on Q+A on Sunday, I noticed the ongoing use of terms like “opportunity” and “aspiration”, and “party of the workers”. What do these mean? We glean much from Labour, and from the media about Labour, but not...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • “Blue-Greenwash” fails the test when it comes to endangered dolphins
    National’s pre-election promises saw some wins for the environment – perhaps as the party sought to appease its “Blue-Green” voters and broaden its popular appeal. Some of the ecological gains were a long time in the making, overdue even– such...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • Reasons not to be cheerful, Part #272b
    Why don’t you get back into bed? The next few years — the rest of this century — are not going to be pretty. There is an obvious disconnect between any remaining political ambition to fix climate change and the...
    The Daily Blog | 21-10
  • OIA protocols and official advice ignored to hide Child Poverty
    It might not seem so now, but child poverty was a major election issue. What a pity we did not have the full debate. In that debate it would have been very helpful to have seen the Ministry of Social...
    The Daily Blog | 20-10
  • Previewing the 4 candidates for Leader of the Labour Party
    The extraordinary outbursts by Shearer last week highlights just how toxic that Caucus is. Shearer was on every major media platform as the ABC attack dog tearing into Cunliffe in the hope of diminishing Cunliffe’s support of Little by tearing...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – the sudden explosion of ‘left’ blogs
    Time to Teach or more people will suffer from P.A.I.D. Political And Intellectual Dysmorphia.I was on the Twitter and a guy followed me so of course I did the polite thing and followed him back. He wrote a blog so...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Ego vs Eco
    Ego vs Eco...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • We can’t let the Roastbuster case slip away
    Those of us (like me) left with hope that the police would aggressively follow through on the large amount of evidence on offer to them (let’s not forget they forgot they even had some at one point) in the Roastbusters...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Food, shelter and medicine instead of bombs and bullets
    The on-going conflict across the Middle East – due in large part to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – has created another humanitarian crisis of biblical proportion. The essentials of life are desperately needed in Iraq and Syria...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • The politics of electorate accommodations
    National’s electorate accommodations with ACT and United Future were a big factor in it winning re-election. Interestingly, there is another electorate accommodation scenario whereby the centre-left could have come out on top, even with the same distribution of party votes....
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Why you should join the TPPA Action on 8 November
    On 8 November 2014, thousands of Kiwis will take part in the International Day of Action to protest the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). The rally cry for us is TPPA – Corporate Trap, Kiwis Fight Back. Why should you join...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG – Patrick O’Dea: no new coal mines
    Green Party and Mana Party policy is “NO NEW COAL MINES!” Auckland Coal Action is trying to put this policy into action on the ground. ACA after a hard fought two year campaign waged alongside local residents and Iwi, in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Comparing Police action – Hager raid vs Roast Buster case
    This satire had the NZ Police contact TDB and threaten us with 6months in prison for using their logo.   The plight of Nicky Hager and the draconian Police actions against him has generated over  $53 000 in donations so...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Malala Yousafzai, White Saviour Complexes and Local Resistance
    Last week, Malala Yousafzai was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since her exposure to the worldwide spotlight, her spirit, wisdom and strength have touched the hearts of people everywhere. However, there have been cynics who have argued that...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Jason Ede is back – but no media can interview him?
    Well, well, well. Jason Ede, the main figure connected to John Key’s office and the Dirty Politics black ops is back with a company with deep ties to the National Party. One thing you can say about the right –...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Leadership Transitions In Other Parties: A ...
    As cannot have escaped anyone’s attention by now, the country is presently in the grips of an election and campaign that will help determine the fate of the nation for years to come. It’s gripping stuff – with clear divides...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • SkyCity worker says she faces losing her house
    SkyCity worker Carolyn Alpine told the company annual shareholder’s meeting today that she faced the prospect of losing her house because the company had cut her shifts from two a week to one without consultation. The solo mother, has worked...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • Greg O’Connor’s latest push to arm cops & 5 reasons not to
    I was wondering at what point within a 3rd term of National that Police Cheerleader Greg O’Connor would start trying to demand cops be armed. O’Connor must have thought to himself, ‘if bloody Key can get us and the GCSB vast new...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • You can’t have crisis without ISIS
    So the new scary bogeyman ISIS might have chemical weapons that the US secretly found in Iraq, but America didn’t want to expose this find because the WMDs were actually built and made by the US and Europe, the two powers...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • NZ WINS UN SPIN THE BOTTLE! Privately sucking up to America for a decade me...
    Oh, we are loved! Little old NZ, the 53rd state of America after Israel and Australia, gets to sit at the adults table for the special dinner party that is the UN Security Council. How delightful, a decade of privately...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • MEDIA BLOG – Myles Thomas – A World Without Advertising
    Non-commercial broadcasting and media. It’s a solution for all manner of problems ailing our tender nation… voter engagement, unaccountable governance, apathy, stupefaction, public education, science in schools, arts appreciation, cultural cringe… But no-one could’ve guessed that non-commercial media might solve...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October
    March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • Whack a mole as US govt foreign policy
    Whack-A-Mole was a popular arcade game from my youth.  It consisted of a waist high cabinet with holes in the top. Plastic moles seemingly randomly pop out of these holes. The purpose of the game was to hit as many...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • In Paean of Debt
    This week is ‘Money Week’. It’s an opportunity to promote to the middle classes, and anyone else who will listen, the virtues of wise ‘investment’. The aims are to promote the mystical (and indeed mythical) virtues of saving for the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • The last 48 hours – Poverty denial, war denial and unapologetic abuse of ...
    The bewildering speed of events that simply end in Key shrugging and proclaiming he doesn’t really give a shit is coming think and fast as the Government suddenly appreciate the full spectrum dominance they now enjoy. Here is Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Mana 2.0 Rebooted
    Internationally the news is that Evo Morales of Bolivia won big with Left Wing policies But what are the chances that the Left will make a resurgence in this country? As the internecine struggles between the Left and the Right...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Pike River Families Group Press Release
    The Families can now but hope that Solid Energy will consider closely the response of the Families’ expert mining advisers, Bob Stevenson and Dave Creedy, and the independent legal advice by Hugh Rennie QC as to why re-entry to the...
    Scoop politics | 24-10
  • On The Nation this weekend
    This weekend on The Nation… with dairy prices falling, China growing its agriculture sector, and the environmental costs piling up, we ask the Fonterra chief executive Theo Spierings if New Zealand is too dependent on milk powder and if we’ve...
    Scoop politics | 24-10
  • NZ Government Urged to Do More to Fight Ebola
    As Ebola continues to tear through West Africa, Save the Children NZ is urging the government to do more in the fight against the deadly virus....
    Scoop politics | 24-10
  • Korero Mai Ki Ahau – Saturday 25 & Sunday 26 October 2014
    Broadcast on Waatea 603AM Saturday 12.00 - 12.30pm Sunday 12.00 - 12.30pm Both shows repeated 5.00pm – 6.00pm On Sunday...
    Scoop politics | 24-10
  • Putting whānau foremost in Family Dispute Resolution
    Dispute resolution company, FairWay Resolution, has developed a uniquely New Zealand approach to family dispute resolution (FDR) that is underpinned by the cultural needs and values of the parties to a family dispute. In support of its role as a...
    Scoop politics | 24-10
  • Anglican Family Care staff to rally industrial action rises
    Public Service Association (PSA) members working at Anglican Family Care (AFC) in Dunedin will hold two rallies in Dunedin next week as they seek a fair pay offer, following a week of low-key industrial action....
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Flying Visit for Adventuring Kiwi Socialpreneur
    12 Months on, this former Alexandra barista is changing lives in Buenos Aires Slums with free lunches, music, art, drama and toothbrushes...
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • March in Solidarity with Kurdistan Against ISIS Attacks
    The New Zealand Kurdish Community will march in solidarity with Kurdistan in light of the heinous genocidal attacks in Kobanê by ISIS. We will begin with silent demonstrations then commence marching. We will start from Britomart, Queen Street (outside Dick...
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • No Problem for Henare & Jones, But “No Way” for Harawira
    “Just before the election I broke the story about the gutting of Maori Television’s News and Current Affairs department by MTS’ new CEO Paora Maxwell. I pointed out that Carol Hirschfeld and Julian Wilcox, two of the country’s most experienced...
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Corruption: Positive developments for NZ but more to be done
    Global anti-corruption group Transparency International today released a report on OECD Anti-Bribery Convention enforcement and called for New Zealand to implement draft legislation to ratify the United Nations Convention against Corruption....
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Government to Blame as Much as Council for Marryatt Payout
    The Taxpayers' Union is calling on the Government to fix the employment law regime that has forced Christchurch ratepayers to fork out $800,000 to former Council boss Tony Marryatt....
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Unanimously Call for Commissioner to Arm Police Full Time
    In the wake of a series of recent armed offender incidents, delegates to the Police Association Annual Conference today called unanimously on the Commissioner to arm Police full time....
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Bank gets behind NZ wildlife icon with sizable donation
    It will be easier than ever this summer for holiday-markers to dip into their pockets to support the yellow-eyed penguin....
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • WorkSafe report raises concerns about asbestos
    The union representing construction workers in the Canterbury rebuild is surprised at WorkSafe’s conclusion that no action needs to be taken against EQC and Fletcher EQR over asbestos exposure in Canterbury homes. “This report was an opportunity...
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Union accuses SkyCity CEO of misleading public
    Unite Union has accused SkyCity CEO Nigel Morrison of misleading the public over the cut in hours for a staff member who raised the issue at the company's AGM....
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Last Hurrah on the Taxpayer
    Responding to the NZ Herald report that Hone Harawira spent up $54,000 on the taxpayer in his last three months as an MP, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says: “It is absolutely disgraceful that an MP managed to rack...
    Scoop politics | 23-10
  • Press statement in relation to search of Nicky Hager’s home
    On 2 October 2014, Nicky Hager's home in Wellington was searched by police. Mr Hager asserted that documents kept at his house were protected by privilege, including because they contained information that might identify confidential sources....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • The Sam Simon arrives into Auckland for new campaign
    This morning Sea Shepherd ship, the Sam Simon, arrived into Auckland harbour after its journey from Melbourne. The ship and its 25 crew from around the globe have come to New Zealand to source supplies and prepare for the upcoming...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Low inflation – time for meaningful wage increases
    With inflation low, now is a good time for workers to negotiate for pay increases that outstrip price rises and deliver real increases in wages and salaries. “For too many people, real pay increases have been missing for several years...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Auckland Rates Rises Out of Control
    Responding to the NZ Herald report that Auckland ratepayers will face an average of a 29 percent rates increase, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says: “These rate rises show that Len Brown's spending is out of control.”...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Protest at New Plymouth Oil and Gas Expo
    About 30 protesters from Climate Justice Taranaki, Frack-free Kapiti, Te Uru Pounamu Action Group, Oil Free Wellington, Frack-free Manawatu and the east coast protested yesterday outside New Plymouth's biennial Oil and Gas Expo at the TSB Stadium....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • FMA warns consumers about cold-calling investment offers
    The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) is warning New Zealand consumers and investors to be wary of cold-calls asking them to buy shares or put their money into offshore firms....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Comprehensive plan needed to end child poverty
    Child Poverty Action Group says it is vital the newly re-elected National government takes a planned and comprehensive approach to reducing child poverty in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Metiria Gets Feed the Kids
    Yesterday the Speaker of the House advised that he had accepted my request to transfer my Feed the Kids (Education (Breakfast and Lunch Programmes in Schools) Amendment) Bill to Metiria Turei of the Green Party....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • DIA undercover investigation leads to jailing
    An undercover Internal Affairs investigation has led to a Hastings man being jailed for three and half years....
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Call on Minister McCully to pursue the case of Balibo Five
    Media Information: Call on Minister McCully to pursue the case of journalist Gary Cunningham and the Balibo Five...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Australia and NZ actions on press freedoms alarming
    Global support for investigative journalism in Australia and New Zealand is a welcome response to law changes and a police raid, says the Pacific Freedom Forum...
    Scoop politics | 22-10
  • Call for release of French journalists in West Papua
    West Papua Action Auckland, the EPMU Print and Media Council and the NZ Media Freedom Network call on the Minister of Foreign Affairs to speak out in support of the two French TV journalists whose trial has just begun in...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Court of Appeal: Dotcom v 20th Century Fox Film Corporation
    A The appeal is dismissed. B The 20 August 2014 order of the High Court dealing with confidentiality and the 29 August 2014 order of this Court dealing with confidentiality are set aside. C The confidentiality orders set out in...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Glassons Blasted For Glamourising Animal Cruelty
    Clothing brand Glassons have found themselves embroiled in another controversy after launching a new advert featuring a girl riding a bull. Animal advocacy organisation SAFE have asked them to remove the ad immediately as it glamourises animal cruelty....
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Smuggling honey into New Zealand isn’t sweet
    Smuggling honey into New Zealand isn’t sweet Federated Farmers Bee Industry Group applauds the tough line taken by Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) Border Staff at Auckland Airport. In deporting the couple found trying to smuggle bee products...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Taxpayers’ Union Responds to Joyce on Corporate Welfare
    Responding to Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce’s defence of corporate welfare , Jim Rose, the author of Monopoly Money , a Taxpayers Union report on corporate welfare since 2008, says:...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech from the Throne brings welcome focus on children
    Today’s speech from the Throne confirms the Government’s focus on children, youth and their families in the areas of health, education, youth employment, poverty alleviation and Whānau Ora; now the challenge is to ensure every child in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • John’s Job Fairs no fix for unemployment and poverty
    “John Key has clearly been looking to the US for his latest bright idea on dealing with employment issues,” says Auckland Action Against Poverty coordinator Sue Bradford. “Job fairs where the desperately unemployed queue in their corporate best to compete...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech From the Throne Foreshadows More Corporate Welfare
    Responding to the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne, which outlined that the Government’s intentions for the next Parliamentary term would include further Business Growth Agenda initiatives, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Green MP to speak at panel on Rainbow Mental Health
    Hamilton, New Zealand: Recently re-elected Green Party MP Jan Logie will be a guest speaker at a panel on the mental health of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Trangender, Takataapui and Intersex people taking place on November 1st as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Evidence Supports GE Moratorium
    Federated Farmers spokesman Graham Smith's call for a 'rethink' on release of GeneticallyEngineered organisms is misguided, and instead it is time for a formal moratorium on GMOs in the environment.(1)...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Chatham Rise mining could have impact on whales and dolphins
    Wellington, 21 October 2014--Mining phosphate on the Chatham Rise, off the east coast of New Zealand’s south island, could potentially have many impacts on marine mammals like whales and dolphins, the Environmental Protection Agency was told today....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Council endorses Nanaia Mahuta as the next Labour leader
    Te Kaunihera Māori, the Māori Council of the New Zealand Labour Party, have passed a resolution to endorse the Hon Nanaia Mahuta as the next leader of the Labour Party...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Kaumatua to organise petition to end Maori seats
    Ngapuhi kaumatua David Rankin has announced that he will be organising a nationwide petition to seek support from Maori voters to end the Maori seats. “These seats are patronising”, he says. “They imply we need a special status, and that...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Announcing a New Voice for The Left
    Josh Forman is pleased to announce the creation of a new force on the Left of politics in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Public services held back by poor workplace culture
    A new report by Victoria University’s Centre for Labour, Employment and Work shows that public servants are working significant unpaid overtime to ensure the public services New Zealanders value are able to continue....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
    Andrew Little’s probability of being the next leader of the Labour Party has reached 70% and Jacinda Ardern is favourite to become his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Prison Drug Treatment Unit marks a milestone
    Christchurch Men’s Prison’s Drug Treatment Unit (DTU) celebrated the completion of its 50th six month Drug and Alcohol Programme today, with the graduation of a further twelve offenders....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Security Council seat a chance for NZ to empower women
    The UN Women National Committee Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Women NCANZ) welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use its position to proactively promote effective implementation of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Waipareira and ACC sign Partnership
    Waipareira and The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding at Whanau Centre, Henderson – marking a special day for the West Auckland Urban Maori organisation....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Humanitarian aid desperately needed in Iraq and Syria
    Global Peace and Justice Auckland is calling on the government to provide humanitarian funding for non-aligned NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Middle East rather than give any support whatever for the US-led military campaign in the area....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Court Judicial Decision: Dotcom v The USA: 17 October 2014
    The United States of America is seeking the extradition of Messrs Dotcom, Batato, Ortmann and Van Der Kolk. The matter has been before the Courts on numerous occasions, and no further recitation of the facts is needed....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Marshall Island poet speaks at UN climate summit
    “The fossil fuel industry is the biggest threat to our very existence as Pacific Islanders. We stand to lose our homes, our communities and our culture. But we are fighting back. This coming Friday thirty Pacific Climate Warriors, joined by...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Many tourist car accidents preventable
    Simple steps could dramatically reduce the number of accidents involving tourists, says the car review website dogandlemon.com ....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
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