web analytics
The Standard
Advertising

Trends good for Left, much work to do

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 78 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags: , ,

It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then see polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads (‘National’s still well ahead of Labour, nothing to see here’) and look at the trends. They tell a story of a government well past its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?

The TV1 and TV3 polls are pretty useless because they’re so infrequent that you can’t look at movements month by month and you can’t know if a given poll is an odd-ball out of line with the trends but they both show the same thing as the Roy Morgans – that National/ACT’s support peaked in September/October 2009 and has fallen since. For this graph, I’ve added New Zealand First into the ‘Left’ with Labour and the Greens because it’s clear he can work with them and not with National, and it’s pretty likely they’ll get up over 5% in the end.

So, significant falls for the Right and rises for the Left in the past year and a bit. Note the decline in ‘other’, too. That’s the Maori Party and United Future, which is not even registering now. Now, let’s just look at the gap between the two potential governing blocs.

According to all three polls, the gap has more than halved since Sept/Oct 09 – the only difference being how big the gap was in the first place and how much remains. If we were to project these trends to November, the Left could be well ahead of the Right or within about 5% – striking distance.

This is why waiting until November was such a huge mistake. Support will ebb away due to the failing economy, oil prices, public service cuts, asset sales, and the edges coming off Brand Key (he lost 10% of his support as preferred PM in three months according to both the TV1 and TV3 polls). The longer until the election, the more chance Key has of losing.

Key’s best chance remains having 4% or so of the anti-National vote wasted on NZF. That was the reason for Key ruling out working with Winston. He was hoping to break NZF’s resurgence. It seems he failed. In fact, he seems to have galvanised NZF support.

Things are trending the right way for the Left but the rest of the gap won’t close by itself. Its up to the Left, not just the party hierarchies, you and me as well, to make the case for switching from National to a Left party (back to a Left party, for most of the target voters). We need to get something between 2% and 6.5% of voters to move away from National. Labour, the Greens, and NZF will all be making strong cases against cuts and privatisation. These are the two topics they would all be well advised to focus on because clear majorities of voters support their positions.

Now, Rob Salmond decided to have a go at me over my poll posts the other day. I didn’t get to the end of his 2000-odd word treatise but the point was that one shouldn’t try to extrapolate from past polling trends because long-term trends don’t exist. David Farrar linked to the post and said exactly the opposite thing – you can’t draw conclusions from short-term trends. (Trevor Mallard also linked to it, but I couldn’t ascertain his point).

Both Salmond and Farrar are right and they’re both wrong. There clearly are multi-year trends in polls. Typically, a party’s popularity will rise over several years until it gains power, then it will peak in popularity a year or two later and begin a gradual descent – think Labour from the mid-90s through the 2000s, or National’s rise mirroring Labour’s decline from 2002 to 2009, when National’s support peaked. I believe there’s little parties can do about these tides except affect how quickly they go in or out. My projections are simply indicators of where the trends are heading. They are not intended to be predictions of actual numbers. I would note that the Roy Morgans are trending in line with the trend lines I drew months ago.

Of course, during election campaigns, support levels can change rapidly and unpredictably but they change from the levels that the parties go into the campaign with. They can also change rapidly in response to unpopular government policies even when the Opposition is weak – look at Kevin Rudd’s downfall after he announced the mining tax and look at how support for the Conservatives and Lib Dems has plummeted in the UK because of their austerity measures.

Key, so far, has avoided unpopular policies but the cuts are coming and so are asset sales. Both the trend and the campaign ought to come out against the Right this year. When you look beyond the simplistic question ‘is National ahead of Labour?’ to the reality of changing voter preferences between the potential governments, it’s clear that this is going to come down to the wire.

PS. Just saw Farrar’s post on the polls: “Many on the left claimed that [the asset sales policy] would reverse the lead in the polls.” No-one claimed that the lead would flip overnight. We’ve said privatisation will narrow the gap and the gap is narrowing.

78 comments on “Trends good for Left, much work to do”

  1. What I would like to know is why did TVNZ and TV3 come out with polls on the same day? And why did Roy Morgan delay the announcement of its regular poll?

    The timing was poor. The Government had a shocker last week (beneficiaries and bad choices and BMWs) and it is a shame that the polling did not occur this week.

    • Marty G 1.1

      yeah. the TV1 and TV3 polls were completed over a week ago which means they were largely conducted before the asset sales issue really blew up on National and completely before the limo/poor budgeting stories.

      But, to be fair, it does take time to crunch the numbers and apply the ‘witches’ brew’ of re-weightings that are needed to make sure a poll’s sample reflects the general population’s demographic make-up. Each polling company has its own, secret, formulas for these re-weightings.

      The Roy Morgan is twice a month. To keep it that way, every so often there’s a three-week, rather than two-week, gap. It’ll be out this Thursday probably.

    • Salsy 1.2

      Is the Roy Morgan out? I still cant find it and the last one was feb 4

  2. Alistair 2

    A very good read.

    Whatever your view on Peters may be he knows how to write a speech that attracts attention, raise emotions, and gain votes. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1102/S00190/speech-peters-public-meeting-kelston-community-hall.htm

    Leave it to him to deal with asset sales and close the polling gap.

    • patriot_nz 2.1

      I read Winston’s speech yesterday and was impressed with it. I agree with him- this is the last chance to save New Zealand as a sovereign nation.

      And as for those polls- I despair. This feels like the 90′s. It took a whole decade to get rid of the neolibs last time- we just don’t have that sort of time and it is almost too late now anyway. People are starting to agitate on the net about National, but maybe those voices are people who would voted left anyway.

      New Zealand is an unusual place in that the most able people leave- some 25% of them. I do seriously wonder if the intelligence bell curve has been pushed way to the left in New Zealand and we have a population that cannot see cause and effect. Either that or that vicious streak that runs through the people here means that half of the population simply don’t care about anyone or anything.

      • Marty G 2.1.1

        “This feels like the 90′s”

        If we had had MMP in 1993 then a Labour-Alliance government would have formed 53% of the vote. And in 1996 everyone expected NZF to go with Labour when they voted for Winston.

        Remember, the people of this country have been smart enough to vote for Labour-led governments every time except twice from 1978 to now. FPP defeated us three times – 78, 81, 93 – Winston’s betrayal got us in 96, and Brand Key got us in 2008. I think it’s unfair and too easy to say the people are too dumb to vote what’s best for them.

        • Anthony C 2.1.1.1

          I wouldn’t say dumb, but a large percentage of the middle vote only break their apathy once they start to get hit hard (or their kids get hit). By then, just like the 90′s the damage is done.

          I’d suggest a lot of these people are busy, don’t have time to engage fully and just have MSM snippets to guide their decisions.

          Also seems to be a national surge of anti-intellectualism at them moment…

        • patriot_nz 2.1.1.2

          Marty- yes- I hear what you are saying about the FPP voting system and how it cost the left in the 90′s. But in spite of having MMP now it feels like it is going to be just as difficult to get rid of the neolibs as it was in the 90′s. And more people cared back then about fairness and egalitarianism.

          I do think seeing cause and effect is a problem in general in politics. The rise of the Tea party in the USA seems to me to be a prime example. Screwed over by the right for decades, some people’s response is to go further to the right in their anger. They just don’t seem to realise the right outsourced their jobs years and years ago and have stopped them from getting healthcare etc. And the left has totally failed the people as well whenever they got the chance to take power over those decades.

          I think NZ might be a different place if it wasn’t for Australia mopping up our thinkers, movers and shakers. People leave instead of agitating for change.

  3. Carol 3

    Marty:

    Its up to the Left, not just the party hierarchies, you and me as well, to make the case for switching from National to a Left party (back to a Left party, for most of the target voters).

    Yes, I was thinking this morning that we need a grassroots, groundswell to show the left parties the way we want to go. We could do with a widely publicised (posters, word-of-mouth, blogs, etc), nation-wide, day of demonstrations, of the “NZ is not forsale” kind.

    • Alistair 3.1

      Winston, Phil, Russell, Hone leading a “NZ Not For Sale” march. Is this the main issue that unifies the Left?

    • neoleftie 3.2

      sounds like a fine plan – we’ll call it the ‘long march’ but seriously apart from a jaded local party organisation and a party elite labour is lacking in an organisation
      the devolpment of long term imbedded ‘cells’ is one option or ‘tea parties’ or even plunket to stimulate and modify understanding and expand the base support for the ‘catch all party’.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.1

        I think all these ideas and more need to be considered. There have to be new ways and new formats of getting people involved in the Labour Party.

        Too many Labour meetings I’ve attended would put the living dead back to sleep. Of course there have also been a few doozies :D

        • neoleftie 3.2.1.1

          well both my electorates over the years have had Labour cabinet ministers as MP’s so the level of feedback has been interesting over the years and my highschool umm ‘political discussion group’ had the future labour leader as an active participant. kinda molded from a young age to realising the truths about inequality i guess

        • Jum 3.2.1.2

          Colonial Viper
          Trouble is, these people working in the background, get little cabinet/party support when they try to fundraise – a high profile Labour MP rolling his or her sleeves up would be really useful. They need to get their faces out there actually meeting the people who raise their money for them. Money is tight. A garage sale by a Labour group is on in Papakura this Saturday, according to an ad I saw. Who is going to be there to support that? Those are where you meet the people, not at some ra ra event where the people are going to vote for Labour anyway.

          Money is tight for the real people of NZ and these fundraisers are pulling the stops out to dream up new ways of making money for Labour to fight the election. They’re doing it because they know this year will save New Zealand if Labour gets in or Americanize New Zealand if Key gets in with his automatic mandate to sell. (Notice I said Labour and Key; there is multi talent in Labour in Parliament but only Key in National).

          Some actors that are agin the TPPA could take part.

          Anyone can paint a board ‘NZ Not For Sale’ or ‘Vote for Key is a Mandate to Sell out NZers’.

  4. Zaphod Beeblebrox 4

    If National are only sitting at 52 or 53% at present, they are in trouble. Its unlikely they would regain lost voters at this stage. When you see they way the news cycle turns like it has over the past few weeks- its only a matter of time before the polls turn. Have a look at how things turned against Labor in the federal and Victorian elections last year the longer campaigning went on.

    Given the way food and fuel prices are going this year- the cost of living argument is going to be a killer for Key. No amount of demonising welfare recipients and public servants is going to hide that.

  5. nadis 5

    so you are saying you can create a trend from two points?

    go on, calculate the confidence interval around the null hypothesis you are making……… that would be enlightening. When doing statistical analysis you can not wish away inconvenient data and when you do extrapolate, the confidence you have around your forecast is more than slightly dependent on the amount of data you use. If you handed in this analysis in a stage one stats paper to me I would send it back with an F.

    However, do i believe anecdotally that the gap is closing- yes it always will in in an election year. The sad reality though for labour is that the left could scratch out a win if it had a leader who resonated even slightly with wider population (not sure who that is – personally I could identify with a Grant Robertson leader/Shane Jones deputy team. Grant at least looks like a technocrat rather than an idealogue.) The mistakes National have been making lately are as significant as any of the last term cock ups under Clarke. My prediction is the election will be very close but Nats will govern mostly alone, and Labour will kick themselves senseless as they realise how close they got with a fifth choice leader (hey at least he is more preferred than Helen now!) and a timid front bench of time servers designed by factional tradeoffs.

    You know, the ultimate nightmare for Labour will be when Winston starts polling higher than Goff as preferred prime minister (hint: Labour strategists, devise a strategy to deal with this). This will be comedy gold, I can already see the fun Key, the media and bloggers will have with that. There’s hours of stand up comedy embedded in that idea.

  6. handle 6

    You don’t foresee a problem getting Winston to agree to work with the Greens given his past history?

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      Depends how much he wants to stop the Nats, doesn’t it?

    • Bright Red 6.2

      NZF supported the ETS and he’s on the same page when it comes to economic sovereignty/asset sales.

      that’s a difference between the conservative right like Winston and the neoliberals who now dominate national. He believes in state interventionist economices and economic sovereignty – the neoliberals don’t. Winston left National over their neoliberal reforms.

      Economically, Winston now closer to the Left than the Right. It’s on the social front that he is conservative and the Left would be well advised to concentrate on economic rather than social issues anyway in the sixth Labour-led government.

      • Colonial Viper 6.2.1

        It’s on the social front that he is conservative and the Left would be well advised to concentrate on economic rather than social issues anyway in the sixth Labour-led government.

        Its probably what Labour should have done anyway in its last term (focus far more on economic reforms), but they seemed much less energised by then.

        There is a good interface between the social front and the economic front – 5 weeks annual leave, 20 weeks paid parental leave, etc. I don’t think that Peters will have any issues supporting initiatives in that vein, and they are excellent ones for building community cohesion and supporting individual health.

      • handle 6.2.2

        If Winston’s position is close to the Greens, why did he refuse to be in government with them?

        • Blighty 6.2.2.1

          times were different. he was in a position to extract more leverage by keeping the greens out. and the greens are different now too

          • Lanthanide 6.2.2.1.1

            Yes, if the votes had come out different, such that Labour could have easily chosen Labour + Green + X, with National needing National + X + Y + Z, then either Dunne or Winston probably would’ve sucked it up and gone with the Greens. But that’s not how the calculus played out.

  7. You might like to consider the size of the Parliamentary blocks, instead of the overall percentages. If NZF goes from 2% to 4% then the left goes up under your analysis, but that could actually be worse for it.

    • Lanthanide 7.1

      If you read the text, he says that:
      1. He is assuming NZFirst gets over 5%
      2. National’s best chance is if NZFirst sits around 4% and doesn’t meet the threshold.

  8. Afewknowthetruth 8

    I still cannot figire out why so many people are so enthusiastic to replace one set of liars and clowns with another set of liars and clowns.

    I suppose it’s just that people are ingnorant of the facts and too thick to see that politics is just a game played out at the kindergarten level -all of it designed to make the proles think their vote is worth something.

    Historic economic and social arrangements are in the process of collapsing globally right now. The ship’s going down and it will make no difference which bunch of clowns [that constitute governments and pretend to know what they are doing] is in power.

    I suppose ordinary people will start to get it when fuel is $3 a litre and they can’t afford what’s on the supermarket shelves, or when the supermarket shelves are empty.

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      If you think governments, and their response to impending crisis, are 100% interchangeable with no difference between them, then you’re in denial.

      Now, is Labour likely to handle peak oil better than National? On balance it looks like ‘no’, but there’s much more room for Labour to manoeuvre – they certainly seem more interested in helping those worst-off in society, a demographic that is likely to increase dramatically should certain peak oil scenarios eventuate.

      I think out of anyone in parliament the Greens are likely to handle peak oil better than anyone else (see their insistence on public transport and biking). Does that mean they’re going to be a magic bullet and solve all our problems with a snap of their fingers? Of course not.

      As far as basic necessities of life go, NZ has all the ingredients to provide for it’s population without anyone suffering – most developed countries actually do. The question is whether we choose to organise ourselves economically and socially to do so. Such choices may seem unthinkable at the moment, but things can change very very rapidly when the public at large get serious about it – just look at Egypt.

      Because we have a choice coming up later this year, surely it’s better to choose the team that you think will do the most good in the situation, even if they fall far far short of what you think is necessary to solve the problem.

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.1

        Now, is Labour likely to handle peak oil better than National? On balance it looks like ‘no’, but there’s much more room for Labour to manoeuvre

        LAB are far friendlier to public transport, farm waste sourced biofuels, home energy efficiency measures, policies which build localised community and industrial capabilities than National.

        Is it enough, hell no. But its a far better starting point than you’ll get with Bill and John.

      • Afewknowthetruth 8.1.2

        The last Labour Government was given mountains of information on peak oil (from 2001 onwards by the way, a time when some mitigation would have been possible) and they chose to completely ignore all of it and carry on as thoiugh energy supply was of no imporatnce whatsoever..

        Don’t forget it was that clown Cullen who invested billion of our dollars in international market that were about to plunge, and so lost billions of our money. And right now there is a new speculative bubble forming

        I can assure you I have numerous letters from Labour Ministers and MPs over the years that all clearly demonstrate they are all f**wits.

        In case you did not know. peak oil was between 2005 and 2008. We are on the way down right now and it is not even on the agenda for discussion. Nor will it be.

        If you have such confidence in Labour I suggest you write to Phil Goff and ask what his strategy for dealing with Peak OIl is. I 100% guarantee you will get back a fob-off letter that is already in the PC, one that blathers on about NZ being given advice by the IEA (which admitted it was wrong about PO in Novermber 2010 by the way: you don’t see that in the headlines.) , and nonsense about the Energy Conservation Authroity, biofuels and other drivel. The vast majority of policians are only capapable of churning out drivel because drivel corresponds to thier intelligence level. Oh, and don’t forget we are going to set up new free trade deals … as per Helen Clark’s sabotage the NZ economy strategy.

        As for the Green Party. what a joke they are. They sat on Peak Oil information for 6 years and did nothing, then came out with idiotic strategies based on biofuels, which we all know are technically flawed from the outset and are in many respects worse than using oil. And the Grens came out even more idiotic strategies, like promoting tourism as a ‘sustanable growth industry’. Sorry mate, the Greens are saboteurs and f**wits, just like the rest.

        ‘even if they fall far far short of what you think is necessary to solve the problem.’

        The time for solutions was the last time Labour were in power. It’s too late now. I’d be surprised if present economic arrangements last until election day. Breat oil is now over $100, a level which causes the world economy to implode.

        As I have said many times. most people are totally ignorant of the facts and just don’t get it. They are unreachable and are basically self-selecting for destitution.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1

          So because, during 2001 to 2008, when there was incontrovertible proof that peak oil was happening the Labour government refused to do anything, you are assuming that in the coming years when there (presumably) will be incontrovertible proof that Labour will still choose not to do anything?

          Yes, it would’ve been nice if Labour had done something during that time. But what do you honestly expect – if they’d started making realistic changes in 2001, they would’ve lost the 2002 election and we would’ve had TAX CUTS!! under a national government anyway. I think you should be blaming the system in equal parts to how you blame Labour – they can only work within the social, economic and political framework set up in this country, a framework that is completely incapable of dealing with peak oil and climate change sort of problems. The general public are mindless sheep and won’t wake up to peak oil until it is screaming at them in the face, by which point it will of course be too late.

          That, of course, is all history. Given that our system is giving us a choice later this year, would you rather choose to go with the party that has a slim hope of doing something meaningful to address the situation, or would you rather choose the party that is almost certain to stall for time and make things worse through inaction?

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1.1

            Sorry, that first sentence should say:
            “when there was NO incontrovertible proof that peak oil was happening ”

            That is, while many people were raising the peak oil problem with Labour, there wasn’t any proof you could look at, beyond reasonable doubt, and say “this proves it”.

            • Draco T Bastard 8.1.2.1.1.1

              There was plenty of evidence around to say that Peak Oil would happen in that decade. It’s been around since the 1960s. No proof because the proof would only be available after Peak Oil. Labour failed to do anything with the data that had been building up over 40+ years and they still look like they aren’t going to do anything. They really need to come out and say that they are planning for the decline in oil availability.

              • Lanthanide

                Hubbert originally predicted oil would peak in 1995. He was sorely wrong from two major factors: hugely reduction in use during the 70′s and early 80′s, but he was also wildly off in terms of total production.

                That’s the problem with predicting something as massively fundamental as oil production and consumption: there are many many people all over the world doing everything they can to improve the oil flow, as well as other people simultaneously making oil use more efficient or trying to replace it with other fuels (no oil-fuelled power plants any more, they all use coal because it’s more cost effective).

                Even if it turns out that we did peak between 2005 and 2008 (and there’s still a chance we could exceed those levels), that particular peaking hasn’t made a huge difference to how we’re living at the moment, and it may not for some years yet. Perhaps ‘peak oil’ isn’t as much a problem as ‘peak plateau oil’, and as long as you realise you’re on a plateau before you fall off, reasonable mitigation can be undertaken.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  He may have been out by a bit but his theory was proven when US hit their local Peak Oil in 1971. We should have started planning for Peak Oil then or, even better, limiting oil use and that was 40 years ago. There really is no excuse for heading into oil decline unprepared.

            • Afewknowthetruth 8.1.2.1.1.2

              If you know anything about government and risk management you will know that governemnt pours millions of dollars into evaluating risks that have a close to zero probability …. volcanic eruptions with a 1 in 500 or less chance of occruing etc. The government puts zero money into evaluating peak oil, which has a 100% certainty. In that sense they are all completely insane. It’s the same for abrupt cliamte change, which is a bigger risk that peak oil and gets zero attention.

              I undestand why all this lunacy continues: everything is driven MED and the insane rantings of economists, who, amongst other things believe in perpetual growth on a finite planet. If thaty’s not insantiy, what is?

              When you are dealing with a life-threatening situation, which peak oil is, you look for the best evidence. Contrary to what you say, there was incontrovertible evidence peak oil would occur before 2020 and it was nearly a certainty it would occur before 2010. Oil extraction data from 1998 onwards indicated we were closing in on the bumpy plateuau. (Now we about to fall off it).

              As anyone who has studied the topic knows, the Hirch Report to the US government highlighted he fact that any society would need 20 years to transition, i.e. even if peak oil were as far out as 2020, preparations needed to have commenced around the year 2000.

              If you study the topic you will note that the first warming was given loud and clear in 1956 and by 1971, when the US peaked and went into decline (just as Hubbert had prediceted it would) it was obvious to anyone with a brain that the world was in deep trouble.

              If you are looking for solutions, do not look ot any of the current crop of polical hacks They only know the politics of failure.

              The part I don’t get: why people think they have to choose between one bunch of idiots and saboteurs and another bunch of idiots and saboteurs. instead \of looking outside the box. I guess it’s just blind faith.

              Brent oil is nearly $103: the next round of collapse will be underway soon.

              • Colonial Viper

                If you are looking for solutions, do not look ot any of the current crop of polical hacks They only know the politics of failure.

                Are you trying to be a fraking idiot? There are two little things in the way of change happening the way I believe you would like to see it happening.

                1) Our highly fiscalised, globalised interest bearing debt based capitalist economy. Which demands growth growth growth, even if it kills all of us in the process.

                2) Our interlocking system of inefficient, slow representative democracy, moneyed capitalist interest groups and disengaged ill-informed short-termism voters.

                Trying to look for a hero politician or huddle of hero politicians is useless because unless you deal with the above you will always get similar results. Different monkeys playing out variations on the same tune on the same grinder. And you appear (to me anyway) to have no ideas with how to deal with the above.

                So stop complaining and come up with something useful :D

      • Draco T Bastard 8.1.3

        As far as basic necessities of life go, NZ has all the ingredients to provide for it’s population without anyone suffering – most developed countries actually do. The question is whether we choose to organise ourselves economically and socially to do so.

        Although I agree with what you say how you say it is part of the problem. Portraying it as a choice, as you do here, makes people think that we have such a choice between continuing as we are or becoming self-sufficient within renewable limits. It’s not a choice that we have – we must become self-sufficient.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.3.1

          It’s still a choice. Choosing wrongly just has extremely disastrous results.

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.3.1.1

            Well its arguable that western civilisation has been choosing wrongly since the Club of Rome. That’s a hell long time.

            Afewknowthetruth makes good points but at the end of the day appears to have no solutions which will work in a democracy.

            Yell and scream all you like, society is not going to make dramatic changes impacting individual lifestyle until people really get it or are forced to. Think about it. Shower heads were a bridge too far politically for Labour to implement. Try for car-less days, bans on the use of imported consumer products, and restrictions on investing in equity markets and see how long any NZ government lasts.

            The only answers available now exist at the individual and highly localised levels.

            • Lanthanide 8.1.3.1.1.1

              Choosing wrongly has been profitable. So far. It has also broadly improved the living conditions of the majority of the population.

              • Colonial Viper

                No denying that :)

                Well, profitable for the few, onerous for the many, but they don’t matter :)

                • neoleftie

                  in a historical sense, even comparing the last few hundred years, the average worker is far far better off in our time. lets see at a base level most people have a car or access to transport, most if not all have access to a means to improve there lot in life, washing machine, oven, health care etc etc all basic everyday things that everyone in our society has access to and has improved there life. show me anyone even a street person who doesnt have access to a clean running water to bath in…we seem to forget the freedom that we have in our time. We have the freedom to even rant and rage online using the most modern of technology.
                  I even agree with Key – people have opportunity all around them, they have to seize it.
                  Here in this discussion the opportunity should be base arounf the opportunity to engage in the right to vote and learn. grow and engage in what effects there community.

            • Draco T Bastard 8.1.3.1.1.2

              Part of that is because the facts are hidden behind spin and BS. If people had reliable information proving that our present lifestyle cannot be maintained then it’s possible that people would choose better. Unfortunately, the political right always comes out saying that people can have everything they want for nothing.

              • Lanthanide

                The right aren’t the only ones who promise that people can have everything they want. Although I would suggest that the left are forced into doing it or they wouldn’t get elected. Greed, basically.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  We certainly need admission from the politicians of all stripes that we live in a limited world. The Greens seem to get this, Labour I’m not too sure about and National/Act actively deny it. The active denial from the right is what forces the left to cater too the greed as well.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    A lot of Labour Party members know that an exponential path of infinite growth is impossible given the finite resources of a limited physical planet. Whether or not caucus gets it, dunno.

                    • neoleftie

                      i think the labour caucus realises a few things but are ‘locked in’ to certain global pathways that dictate system changes

  9. dave 9

    So how does that change things if the Maori Party were put on the Right and NZF doesnot get 5%…. Because that1ll be more accurate.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Although I can’t see why your scenario – which is certainly one distinct possibility – can be called “more accurate”

  10. Rob 10

    It would be nice if those trends continued. The left has a lot to do though trying to make sure that those issues do not die out in the public’s mind before the election.

  11. Rob Salmond 11

    Marty,

    You said: “Rob Salmond decided to have a go at me over my poll posts the other day… [his] point was that one shouldn’t try to extrapolate from past polling trends because long-term trends don’t exist.”

    That was not my point at all. Long term trends undoubtedly exist. Instead, I said that the shape of long term trends are hard to predict, and are not usually linear for more than a few months. That makes year-long linear projections beyond your data of the type you have been publishing really problematic.

    Marty, much of your writing here on The Standard is very, very good. I just think you are overblowing this analysis a bit.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      Quite true that looking at a small flat part of a larger exponential curve and assuming the rest was linear could easily lead to forecast error.

    • Lanthanide 11.2

      But it’s just a trend. The actual data points can still fluctuate around that trendline just as much as they already have in the past.

      Really what he’s saying, for example, is that the polls between Jan 2009 and Dec 2009 might show that National are at 55% support, +/- 5%. Between July 2011 and Nov 2011 we might predict that the polls will show National are at 45% +/- 5%. The trend is showing that the mid point has gone from 55% to 45%, but the individual polls will still bounce around. I don’t really see anything wrong with that.

      It also doesn’t mean Labour are guaranteed to win: the trend line could predict National at 45% +/- 5% and the left block at 45% +/- 5%, but if on election day we end up with Nats on 50% and left block on 40%, the trend line wasn’t wrong.

      The point, really, is to combat this live very prevalent in the media and the public that “National are so far out in front they won’t lose”, but when you actually examine what has been happening in the polls over time, we can predict that at some point the media will wake up with a surprise and say “hang on, Labour suddenly has a chance”. Except it won’t be a surprise to us at all.

      • neoleftie 11.2.1

        well another point could be that the ‘cant be bothered’, un-decided or switch voter might near election time see national ahead in the polls and come out in support of the left block due to the impacting issues on their individual lives and actual want their vote to count against the Tories.

        NB: I wonder if the Lab Strategy is slowly slowly hush hush, let the Nats hang themselves on public outcry over neo liberal policy formulation and then stick it to the Nats closer to the vote time…cant have the Lab message getting diluted or Tory / MSM negitive spin effecting traction with the voter.

  12. interesting 12

    Roy Morgan Poll Just in today:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4631/

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      Didn’t think this would appear until the end of the week!

      LAB down, NZF down, NATs up. Right wing up, Left wing down. Not promising at all. Still doesn’t make sense that Roy Morgan reads a big drop in NZF support when the TVNZ and TV3 polls have him getting a nice blip up.

      LAB numbers remain dead in the water.

      • The Voice of Reason 12.1.1

        The sampling periods may not match, CV. The Roy Morgan is January 31 – February 13th. So the last week’s shenanigans don’t feature in the results.

    • lprent 12.2

      Pretty much statistical jitter numerically.

      The survey period of Jan 31st to Feb 13 means that there wasn’t much interesting stuff in the survey period. Key acting like a prat over food banks was on the 9th. The speech on cutting the front line public services to pay for tax cuts was on the 7th. Even the promise by National to privatize everything to pay for tax cuts was only a few days before the survey period on the Wednesday prior to the survey period and won’t be reflected strongly in the poll*. Everything prior to that was just holidays.

      Yawn and wait for the next one at the end of the month. But I bet that the movement within the statistical variation is going to be screamed up by the hysterics like DPF# and some of the other numerical idiots in the MSM….

      * You usually find that political reactions amongst voters happen no earlier than a fortnight after the event..
      # How he can run a statistically based business is beyond me. Hopefully he does employ someone who isn’t as numerically challenged as he is.

  13. interesting 13

    CV,

    Is it more that the ROy Morgan had NZF artificially high in its previous poll and this is just a rebalancing?

    It seems all three polls have Nats and Labs, and Greens at simmilar numbers.

    The other ones, UNF, ACT, MP seem to all be different in each poll.

    • lprent 13.1

      If you look at the bottom on the page where is has the section “Margin of Error” it gives you the variations you can expect (in a really annoying format).

      The total sample size was 924 so you’d expect that the sample sizes for each major party would be somewhere around 300-450 and those for the minor parties would be only tens of respondents. The margins of error in percentage terms for the main parties wind up as being pretty high (essentially anything below +/- 3% is probably statistical blipping unless it carries over several polls) and those of the minor parties are really jumpy for any single poll.

      The Morgan poll is the best available simply because it is taken about every 2 weeks and allows a series to be looked at for trend. You can’t rely on the absolute percentage figures because they relate to the sampling technique as much as anything else (like the basic flaw that they are land-line polls which over-samples conservatives). The biggest flaw in the Morgan polls is that they don’t have the would not say and undecided in them – which makes a lot of the pontificating on this poll this far out from the election somewhat moot.

      Really they’re useful for indicators of trend.

      • wtl 13.1.1

        In the above link: “Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 2.5%) did not name a party.”

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.2

        The biggest flaw in the Morgan polls is that they don’t have the would not say and undecided in them – which makes a lot of the pontificating on this poll this far out from the election somewhat moot.

        They must have that data, so I wonder why they don’t publish it?

        • lprent 13.1.2.1

          I have never found a good explanation for that. It would certainly make the polls more useful. So would giving some details about the demographic mangling they do. When I’m analyzing canvassing both of those factors are the most interesting. As are the distinct differences between the landline populations and those we have to door knock.

          • neoleftie 13.1.2.1.1

            here an insight i have experienced in my local labour organisation. No leaflets drops to the poorest area in years, no leaflet drops to affluent area even though half the household decider in those liberal household were women. Low telephone polling of poor cause they cannot afford a telephone or worked odd hours. Low engagement with the electorate to generate meaningful dialogue at the grass root level…no wonder the neo-libs are stronger as there whole way of life is expressed in connectiveness.

            • lprent 13.1.2.1.1.1

              Yeah, some of the organizations are a bit pathetic. Especially in capturing the data that they gain and holding it between elections. Or retaining a coherent block system. As well as using it for phamplets we also use it to target areas that we don’t get good phones for door knocking. Means that when we come to campaigning we can use our scarce volunteers as effectively as possible for turning voters out, and we know our electorate.

              I have done most of my electorate work in Mt Albert where I grew up and it is somewhat different.

              Helen was great t doing the community stuff as well. So is David.

              • neoleftie

                unfortunately whilst amazingly generous and caring people and from the deepest red and strongest labour electorates in the country and even the most organised, in the real world the whole structure is lacking…

    • The Voice of Reason 13.2

      For Winston, it reflects that he hasn’t been in the news much this month, therefore NZF drops back to its default position of 2.5%. One interesting fact about the left vote is that Labour has stayed above 30% for 8 months and the Greens have stayed at or above their election night result since 2008. Between them, they have only dipped below a combined 40% a couple of times. There is an stability there that can be built on.

      National, on the other hand, have clearly picked up ACT’s points. Rodney could be a very lonely boy even if the Nats gift him Epsom. Dunne may be a goner as well, but not because of this poll. He’s too small to really feature in the RM, but to win his seat this time round, he’ll probably need a nod and a wink from National too.

      • Colonial Viper 13.2.1

        Labour has got to depose Dunne. He has been hanging around for far too long. With him and Douglas both history, Parliament will be a greatly improved environment.

        • neoleftie 13.2.1.1

          the most amusing times at parliament was witnessing ‘king’ winnie showboat to the gallery. bring back winnie only to cut 2-3% off national

  14. Jan 14

    And in Gisborne the turning of the tide is already complete/
    anti-spam fortune ;)
    http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=21402

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      Go the NAT supporter who said we “can’t afford socialism” – but we can obviously afford tax cuts for the wealthy. Loser!

      • neoleftie 14.1.1

        tinkering with tax rate – yes but tax cuts – havent seen any theory and supporting proven data that suggest tax cuts during a recession leads to a positive outcome.

Links to post

Important links

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Democracy – Leonard Cohen
      Because I've just come back from Nicky Hager's extraordinary public meeting in the Mt Eden War Memorial Hall, here's Lenny's magnificent paean to the democratic ideal. If it's coming to the USA - why not here too? Sail on, sail on,...
    Bowalley Road | 27-08
  • The Pilgrim Of Light: Nicky Hager And New Zealand Politics
    Admonishing Angel: Nicky Hager descends periodically to trouble our consciences and wreak merry havoc with the orderly conduct of our political affairs. But, more than any other journalist in New Zealand, he has taught us to read the actions of...
    Bowalley Road | 27-08
  • Positive!
    The public are being turned off by dirty politics. Our opponents are scum, but let's focus on the issues....
    Imperator Fish | 27-08
  • Lack of information on Port of Tauranga death extremely concerning
    The Maritime Union is extremely concerned about the lack of public information about a Tauranga port worker who died last week....
    MUNZ | 27-08
  • Stuart’s 100 #15 Understanding the City Link Bus a s a Tram on Rubber Whe...
    15: Understanding the City Link Bus as a Tram on Rubber Wheels What if the red city link bus was more like a tram on rubber wheels? Ok, so trams do have wheels, steel ones on rails. But bear with...
    Transport Blog | 27-08
  • World News Brief, Wednesday August 27
    Top of the AgendaAfghan Candidate Threatens to Withdraw...
    Pundit | 27-08
  • No surprises in Te Tai Tonga poll
    Native Affairs promised, prior to the election campaign, that they’d be polling all seven Maori seats this election. On Monday they released their results for the Te Tai Tonga electorate, currently held by Labour’s Rino Tirikatene. Unsurprisingly, Labour has a healthy...
    Occasionally erudite | 27-08
  • Careering to the right …
    A (long) post about Nicky Hager's book "Dirty Politics' on The Standard. http://thestandard.org.nz/tewharewhero-careering-to-the-right/...
    Te Whare Whero | 27-08
  • The “Dirty Politics” stories – where are we?
    As I stated in my post on Dirty Politics, the most important question that it raises for me is what sort of politics and political behaviour are we prepared to accept in our country? That's a big issue....
    Pundit | 27-08
  • Dirty Politics
    I find myself getting impatient with the endless chatter about the legal and technical minutiae of some aspects of Hager's book because the essence of it is abuse of trust and betrayal of democracy. These are issues that, if not...
    Te Whare Whero | 27-08
  • Dirty politics on the Royal Society fluoride review
    In Anti-fluoride activists unhappy about scientific research I related how local anti-fluoride propagandists were busy rubbishing the Royal Society of NZ  fluoride review – even before it was released. Now that it is released (see Health Effects of Water Fluoridation: a Review of...
    Open Parachute | 27-08
  • PVR advice
    Yesterday I called Vodafone’s customer support line to get some help with my broadband internet. Today I cancelled my Vodafone account and signed up with Spark because that seemed like an easier way to get my internet working again.  Anyway,...
    DimPost | 27-08
  • So is National’s campaign “slick” or “a mess”?
    Political punditry is definitely a matter of perspective. If you were a Fox News commentator during the last US presidential election, Mitt Romney’s campaign was a dead cert winner; if you were Nate Silver, Obama was going to romp home....
    Occasionally erudite | 27-08
  • Margaret Sparrow’s Report from Lisbon
    I attended two conferences in Lisbon May/June 2014 13th Congress of the European Society of Contraception and Reproductive Health (ESC) held in Lisbon, Portugal 28-31 May 2014. Theme: Challenges in Sexual and Reproductive Health. This was a well organised congress...
    ALRANZ | 27-08
  • Child Poverty Action Group – On The March
    Take steps against child poverty in Aotearoa New Zealand. Join the End Child Poverty HikoiBritomart, Auckland11:00am, Saturday 6 September 2014   This posting is exclusive to the Bowalley Road blogsite....
    Bowalley Road | 27-08
  • Supporting all the colours of the rainbow
    [Content note: this post deals with issues around gender, transphobia and gender policing. Stay safe.] In utter defiance of the Prime Minister’s insistence that the left doesn’t want to have a policy debate, Labour has continued to release policies, and...
    Boots Theory | 27-08
  • About time
    The Chief Ombudsman will be conducting an inquiry post-election on the general handling of OIA requests:Chief Ombudsman Dame Beverley Wakem said issues which would be examined included government departments having to seek "sign off" from their ministers before releasing information...
    No Right Turn | 27-08
  • The disappointment of winning
    The Greens announced their healthy homes policy today, promising a warrant of fitness for rental housing and funding to insulate 200,000 homes. And my initial reaction was "meh, Labour and National are offering this too". Which is a sign of...
    No Right Turn | 27-08
  • Cycling in Manukau
    Last week I looked at how hard it was to safely walk around Manukau City. Today I am going to look at the cycling infrastructure that has been provided. On the various regional cycle network maps a lovely grid of...
    Transport Blog | 27-08
  • Letter to the Editor – a message to Cantabrians
    . . from:     Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com> to:         “The Press” <letters@press.co.nz> date:      Wed, Aug 27, 2014 subject: Letters to the editor . The editor “The Press” . It must be galling for Cantabrians, and specifically the long-suffering people of Christchurch, that...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • Letter to the Editor – a message to Cantabrians
    . . from:     Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com> to:         “The Press” <letters@press.co.nz> date:      Wed, Aug 27, 2014 subject: Letters to the editor . The editor “The Press” . It must be galling for Cantabrians, and specifically the long-suffering people of Christchurch, that...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • TDB Today: Bought and paid for – the dirty politics of climate denial
    It was always going to be difficult to avoid writing more about the impact of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics and what it tells us about the way the present government and its supporters have behaved, so in my post at...
    Hot Topic | 26-08
  • Letter to the Editor – fiscal irresponsibility by National
    . . from:     Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com> to:          “The Wellingtonian” <editor@thewellingtonian.co.nz> date:      Wed, Aug 27, 2014 subject: Letter to the editor . The Editor “The Wellingtonian” At a time when the Capital Coast DHB is so strapped for cash that it...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • Letter to the Editor – fiscal irresponsibility by National
    . . from:     Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com> to:          “The Wellingtonian” <editor@thewellingtonian.co.nz> date:      Wed, Aug 27, 2014 subject: Letter to the editor . The Editor “The Wellingtonian” At a time when the Capital Coast DHB is so strapped for cash that it...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • “Thou hast put out their name for ever and ever” – the sequel
    So a week ago, the rumours were circulating that Andrew Williams was to be demoted from number 3 on the NZ First list to number 13, to which I wrote a post entitled “Winston Peters & the NZ First list...
    Occasionally erudite | 26-08
  • John Key’s Top 69 Lies: Today no. 24: I expect high standards from my min...
    Top ministers in Key's Cabinet focused on economy...
    Arch Rival | 26-08
  • Confirmed: The police don’t care about electoral crime
    In 2007 Parliament passed the Electoral Finance Act. One of the changes it made to our electoral law, retained in the subsequent amendments, was to massively increase the penalties for electoral offences. The penalty for a corrupt practice was doubled,...
    No Right Turn | 26-08
  • If this was Labour we’d be calling it “a mess”
    John Key has been relying more than usual on the scripted spin when it comes to defending his administration after the revelations in Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics, one of his most popular being that Hager's claims were "dissolving before his...
    Pundit | 26-08
  • Speaker: Why I’m standing in Ilam
    If you had told me the media were going to focus on a Canterbury Labour candidate invoking Shakespeare, I would have hoped it was me. The thing is, the James Macbeth Dann for Ilam campaign, superbly managed by Public Address...
    Public Address | 26-08
  • Blog Link: Slater/Key/OIA/SIS–irrefutable proof of the PM’s lies.
    Not that readers of KP will need much convincing, but Selwyn Manning has written a decisive essay on why the PM is lying about his involvement in the Slater/SIS/OIA fiasco. To do so he uses the State Services Commission’s guidelines...
    Kiwipolitico | 26-08
  • Anne Salmond – Hero of the Week
    New Zealander's in general may not be aware that we have some of the best writers in the world here in Gods own country. In terms of literature, us Kiwis certainly punch well above our small populations weight. One such...
    The Jackal | 26-08
  • Herald on Labour
    Here is toady's New Zealand Herald's editorial on Labour's self-imposed fiscal haircut (well, it is more of a bread trim, but there you go...): The Labour Party has broken new ground in election campaigns by announcing cuts to spending that...
    Polity | 26-08
  • Anne Salmond’s take
    Anne Salmond (no relation, I think) has a considered, mature take on political life after Dirty Politics. Read it. I want to highlight one part in particular: If the Prime Minister’s office has indeed worked with the SIS to attack...
    Polity | 26-08
  • Deferring Transport Projects
    So what do you do when you’re told you have to cut some of your $826 million budget for capital projects and that in choosing what to cut it can’t apply to public transport projects? Well it seems if you’re Auckland Transport you...
    Transport Blog | 26-08
  • Athabasca Glacier: a tragic vanishing act
    The Athabasca Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains is probably the easiest glacier in the world to access by car. It's just a few hundred metres' stroll from the nearest parking lot on the magnificent Icefields Parkway in Alberta. The problem...
    Skeptical Science | 26-08
  • US/NZ host international workshop on ocean acidification
    Press Release – United States Embassy An International Workshop on Ocean Acidification: State-of-the-Science Considerations for Small Island Developing StatesAn International Workshop on Ocean Acidification: State-of-the-Science Considerations for Small Island Developing States August 28-29, 2014 Apia, Samoa Jointly hosted by New...
    Its our future | 26-08
  • Bernard Hickey: Income fairness improves economies
    The following Bernard Hickey article appeared in the Herald on Sunday Bernard Hickey: Income fairness improves economies 1:50 PM Sunday Aug 24, 2014 103 comments Huge disparities in wages, and access to healthcare and education, contributed to the global recession....
    Closing the Gap | 26-08
  • Free trade will lift Kiwi incomes: National
    Press Release – New Zealand National Party National today released a set of policies that reinforces the Partys commitment to openness with the world as the path to lift New Zealanders incomes, in contrast with opposition parties that want to...
    Its our future | 26-08
  • Letter to the Ediror – the PM? Or PM’s Office?
    . . from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com> to: Sunday Star Times <letters@star-times.co.nz> date: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 subject: Letter to the editor . The editor Sunday Star Times . With regards to the hip-hop group that recently put out a song...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • Letter to the Ediror – the PM? Or PM’s Office?
    . . from: Frank Macskasy <fmacskasy@gmail.com> to: Sunday Star Times <letters@star-times.co.nz> date: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 subject: Letter to the editor . The editor Sunday Star Times . With regards to the hip-hop group that recently put out a song...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • Reproductive Justice: More Than ‘Pro-Choice’
    By Dr. Morgan Healey, ALRANZ President I was fortunate enough to be invited to speak at ‘That’s What She Said: Intersectional Feminist Day Conference’ hosted by the University of Canterbury Feminist Society in collaboration with NZ Tertiary Women’s Focus Group...
    ALRANZ | 26-08
  • Vote Choice: Sexual and Reproductive Health and Aid
    by Kes, ALRANZ Member An NZPPD Report on the Open Hearing on Adolescent SRHR in the Pacific – political will can make a difference for our Pacific neighbours New Zealand currently spends about $550 million a year in official development...
    ALRANZ | 26-08
  • Stuart’s 100 #14: Better Paint Jobs
    14: Better Paint Jobs What if heritage buildings had better colour schemes that enhanced their rich detail? There seems to be a thing at the moment where every time an older building is refurbished or just repainted, the modernising thing...
    Transport Blog | 26-08
  • Party Lists – Election 2014
    . . ACT Party 1. Dr Jamie Whyte 2. Kenneth Wang 3. Robin Grieve 4. Beth Houlbrooke 5. Don Nicolson 6. Stephen Berry 7. Dasha Kovalenko 8. Gareth Veale 9. Ian Cummings 10. Sara Muti 11. Toni Severin 12. Max...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • Party Lists – Election 2014
    . . ACT Party 1. Dr Jamie Whyte 2. Kenneth Wang 3. Robin Grieve 4. Beth Houlbrooke 5. Don Nicolson 6. Stephen Berry 7. Dasha Kovalenko 8. Gareth Veale 9. Ian Cummings 10. Sara Muti 11. Toni Severin 12. Max...
    Frankly Speaking | 26-08
  • Voting National Out This Election – Is a Matter of Survival For Many Kiwi...
    Electricity prices have risen by over 19% since the National Gov’t were elected in – so what do they plan on doing about it?  Nothing! House Prices have increased by over $225,000 in Auckland since National were voted in (based...
    An average kiwi | 26-08
  • On canapés and canopies
    On August 7, the Prime Minister was in town to announce the convention centre plans. This was done in a special marquee that was erected on the site, and to a very select group of delegates. I used an OIA...
    Rebuilding Christchurch | 26-08
  • The spycloud
    The Intercept has a major expose today on the NSA's ICREACH program, a front-end for searching their massive databases of communications metadata. In other words, their spycloud. ICREACH has been accessible to more than 1,000 analysts at 23 U.S. government...
    No Right Turn | 26-08
  • World News Brief, Tuesday August 26
    Top of the AgendaFrance Dissolves Government...
    Pundit | 26-08
  • It’s alive!
    A disturbing story about a song that woke up, started threatening people, and then had sex....
    Imperator Fish | 26-08
  • Media Advisory – MANA Movement Candidate for Waiariki Annette Sykes, Waia...
    Media are advised that this coming weekend, the MANA Movement Candidate for Waiariki, Annette Sykes, will be on the Internet MANA Road Trip within the electorate of Waiariki. Speakers confirmed are Annette Sykes, Hone Harawira, John Minto, Laila Harre and Kim...
    Mana | 27-08
  • Internet MANA – Waiariki Road Trip: 29, 30, 31 Aug 2014
    The Internet MANA Road Trip hits Waiariki this weekend. It would be great if all MANA members in Waiariki could especially attend the public meetings and show their support for our Waiariki candidate Annette Sykes. Confirmed speakers Hone Harawira (except Taupo), Annette...
    Mana | 27-08
  • First home buyers $200 a week better off with Labour
    A couple earning around $75,000 a year would be $200 a week better off buying a two bedroom terraced Labour KiwiBuild home instead of an equivalent new build under National’s housing policy, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe.  “National’s policy to...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Another Day – Another big power profit
    The latest profit announcement from Genesis Energy shows that the power company was sold for a song to the detriment of the country’s power consumers, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “A net profit of $ 49.2 million follows hard...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour embraces the rainbow
    Labour will work hard to ensure all New Zealanders enjoy the freedom to grow up and live their lives in dignity and security. Labour’s Rainbow policy, released tonight in Wellington, focuses on International Relations, Human Rights and Education....
    Labour | 26-08
  • National gets fast and loose with the facts
    In their desperation to make it look as though they are doing something about the housing crisis, National is playing fast and loose with the facts, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford....
    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour will drop power prices for Kiwi families
    New Zealanders will get cheaper power prices under NZ Power, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “The electricity market is clearly broken. With falling demand for electricity, prices should be going down. Instead prices are going up and companies are extracting...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour: Promoting sustainable tourism
    Ensuring New Zealand’s clean, green status continues to be an international tourism benchmark and reviewing MBIE’s oversight of the tourism sector will be on the radar under a Labour Government. Releasing Labour’s Tourism policy today, spokesperson Darien Fenton said tourism...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Skills shortage a result of National’s complacency
    The fact that there is still a severe shortage of skilled tradespeople, despite a growth in the number of apprentices, is a result of National’s failure to plan and develop the workforce, Grant Robertson, Labour Employment, Skills and TrainingSpokesperson says."The...
    Labour | 26-08
  • How much tax does John Key pay compared to a minimum wage worker?? – Mint...
    MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is calling for a radical overhaul of New Zealand’s taxation system with calculations showing that a minimum wage worker pays a ten times higher tax rate than the Prime Minister. o Minimum wage...
    Mana | 25-08
  • Labour’s culture of science and innovation
    Labour will create a culture of science and innovation in New Zealand that will be the envy of the world, says Labour’s Innovation, Research and Development spokesperson Megan Woods. “Labour believes that good science lies at the heart of a...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Improving life for our new New Zealanders
    New Zealand’s international standing as a community that encourages and fosters all cultures will be bolstered under a Labour Government with an upgrade of the present Office of Ethnic Affairs to a Ministry. Releasing Labour’s Ethnic Affairs policy, spokesperson Phil...
    Labour | 25-08
  • South Auckland housing crisis
    National’s HomeStart package is nothing more than a political stunt designed to beguile South Auckland voters, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio. “Few working Pasifika and Maori workers in South Auckland will be able to buy their own...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Home buyer subsidy discredited in Oz
    Treasury advised against National’s policy of ramping up home buyer subsidies after it was discredited in Australia because it pushed house prices even higher, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Documents released under the OIA (attached) show Treasury advised the...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Nursing hours explain turnover and high-stress culture
    A staff survey supports concerns nursing staff at Dunedin Hospital are under increasing pressure and that the emergency department is in a critical state, says Labour’s Associate Health Spokesperson David Clark.  “An ED nursing survey at Dunedin found that 80...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Underhand tactics prove case for axing donations
    Revelations that schools are using underhand tactics to coerce donations from cash-strapped parents further highlights the need for Labour's plan to increase funding so they aren't dependent on contributions from parents, Labour's Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “By law New...
    Labour | 24-08
  • National applies band-aid to housing crisis
    The Government’s flagship housing announcement is a band-aid approach that will push up prices rather than solve the housing crisis, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “House sales to first home buyers have collapsed as a direct result of the Government’s...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Climate change focus on the now for the future
    A Labour Governmentwill put in place a comprehensive climate change strategy focusing on bothmitigation and adaptation, establish an independent Climate Commission andimplement carbon budgeting, says Labour Climate Change spokesperson MoanaMackey."This is about future-proofing our economy. Making the transition to alow-carbon...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Labour’s 21st century transport pledge
    The next Labour-led Government will create a 21st century transport system for New Zealand that promotes the most efficient and sustainable combination of transport options, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour will rebalance the Government's transport spending away from...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Housing under National: the facts
    1.       House prices in Auckland Council valuations indicate Auckland house prices have gone up by one-third over the last three years. (Auckland Council) The average Auckland house price has gone up by nearly $225,000 since 2008, up over $75,000 in...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Labour irons out low income tax issue
    The increasing casualisation of work has led to many New Zealand families being disadvantaged through the tax they pay, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. "Many low paid workers are having to work two or three jobs to make ends meet...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Cornered Government comes out swinging
    The National Government is so desperate to keep its dead-in-the-water expert teachers policy alive, it has refused to rule out forcing schools to participate through legislation, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “John Key today attacked the Educational Institute for...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Pacific people continue to go backwards under National
    A report from Victoria University highlights the fact that Pacific people are continuing to go backwards under a National Government, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “The report shows the largest inequality increases were in smoking, obesity, tertiary...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Wellington transport plan needs to keep moving
    The failure of the Transport Agency to properly look at alternatives to the Basin Reserve flyover is not a good reason for further delays to improving transport in Wellington, Labour MPs Grant Robertson and Annette King say. “The Board of...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Labour’s focus on inequality, kids and better job prospects
    Tackling child poverty and removing barriers to people working part time to enhance their prospects of moving into a fulltime job are highlights of Labour’s Social Development policy. Releasing the policy today, spokesperson Sue Moroney said while part-time work was...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Political staff should give answers under oath
    The Inspector General of Security and Intelligence should use her full statutory powers to question witnesses under oath about the leak of SIS information, says Labour MP Phil Goff. “Leakage of confidential information from the SIS for political purposes is...
    Labour | 21-08
  • High dollar, hands-off Govt sends workers to dole queue
    The loss of up to 100 jobs at Croxley stationery in Auckland is devastating news for their families and the local Avondale community, Labour’s Employment, Skills and Training spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The company’s inability to compete in international markets...
    Labour | 21-08
  • National’s flagship education policy dead in the water
    National’s plan to create executive principals and expert teachers is effectively dead in the water with news that 93 percent of primary teachers have no confidence in the scheme, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The fact that teachers are...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Dunedin will be a knowledge and innovation centre under Labour
    Dunedin will become a knowledge and innovation centre under a Labour Government that will back local businesses, support technology initiatives and fund dynamic regional projects, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Nowhere has the National Government’s short-sightedness been more apparently than...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Inquiry into SIS disclosures the right decision
    Labour MP Phil Goff says the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has done the right thing by launching an inquiry into the disclosure of SIS documents about a meeting between himself and the agency’s former director-general. “This inquiry is necessary...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Labour – supporting and valuing carers and the cared for
    Placing real value on our elderly and the people who care for them will be a priority for a Labour Government, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. Releasing Labour’s Senior Citizens policy today David Cunliffe promised that a Labour Government would...
    Labour | 20-08
  • By Hoki! It’s Labour’s fisheries policy
    A Labour Government will protect the iconic Kiwi tradition of fishing by improving access to the coast, protecting the rights of recreational fishers and reviewing snapper restrictions, Labour’s Fisheries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Catching a fish from the rocks, beach...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Mighty River – Mighty Profits – Mighty hard to swallow
    Mighty River Power’s profit increase of 84 per cent is simply outrageous, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “Demand for electricity is flat or declining yet the company has made enormous profits. It is the latest power company to celebrate...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Collins’ actions were wrong, not unwise
    John Key’s moral compass remains off-kilter as he cannot bring himself to declare Judith Collins’ actions outright wrong, not simply ‘unwise’, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “Under pressure John Key is finally shifting his stance but his failure to condemn...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Public servants behaving with more integrity than their masters
    The State Services Commission's new report on the integrity of our state services reflects the yawning gap between the behaviour of public servants and that of their political masters, Labour's State Services spokesperson Maryan Street says. “This report, which surveyed...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Phil Twyford Speech to NZCID
    "Labour's plan to build more and build better: how new approaches to housing, transport and urban development will deliver cities that work" Phil Twyford, Labour Party spokesperson on housing, transport, Auckland issues, and cities.  ...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Labour commits to independent Foreign Affairs and Trade
    “Labour is committed to New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs and Trade policy being independent and proactive, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “We are a small but respected country. Our voice and actions count in international affairs. Labour will take a...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Key must sack Collins over abhorrent actions
    The latest revelations that Judith Collins sent the contact details of a public servant to WhaleOil in a desperate attempt to divert media attention from a bad story is abhorrent, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key and Judith Collins...
    Labour | 19-08
  • It’s downhill from here under National
    The forecast drop in exports and predicted halving of growth shows that it’s downhill from here with National, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Growth under this Government peaked in June and halves to two per cent in coming years....
    Labour | 19-08
  • John Key loses moral compass over Collins
    John Key has lost his moral compass over Judith Collins’ involvement with Cameron Slater and lost touch with New Zealanders’ sense of right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “Whoever is Prime Minister there are expectations they will not...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Mana Movement General Election 2014 List confirmed
    The MANA List is now confirmed with all the candidates as below (the numbers are the respective Internet MANA rankings). Candidate, Electorate, Internet MANA List Position Hone Harawira, Te Tai Tokerau (1) Annette Sykes, Waiariki (3) John Minto, Mt Roskill (4) Te Hamua Nikora, Ikaroa-Rawhiti...
    Mana | 18-08
  • PREFU likely to confirm dropping exports
    National’s economic management will be put under the spotlight in tomorrow’s PREFU given clear signs the so-called rock star economy has fallen off the stage, with plummeting prices for raw commodity exports, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Under National,...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Record profits while Kiwis face a cold winter
    The record profits by two of New Zealand’s largest electricity companies will be a bitter pill for New Zealand households who are paying record amounts for their power, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “No doubt the Key government will...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time for John Key to answer yes or no questions
    John Key’s train-wreck interview on Morning Report shows he is no longer capable of a simple yes or no answer and has lost touch with what’s right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key has become so media...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Key must clarify who signed out SIS OIA
    Yet again John Key is proving incapable of answering a simple question on an extremely important issue – this time who signed off Cameron Slater’s fast-tracked SIS OIA request on Phil Goff, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “John Key’s claim...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time to invest in our tertiary education system
    A Labour Government will fully review the student support system – including allowances, loans, accommodation support and scholarships – with a view to increasing access and making the system fair, transparent and sustainable, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Maryan Street says....
    Labour | 17-08
  • Labour will facilitate regional Māori economic development agencies
    The next Labour Government will facilitate the creation of regional Māori economic development groups lead by iwi and hapū to work in partnership with business and public agencies as part of its Māori Development policy. “Labour is committed to working towards...
    Labour | 16-08
  • PRIME MINISTER’S DENIAL AT ODDS WITH NATIONAL PARTY STATEMENT
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has today released an email from the General Manager of the National Party that directly contradicts recent statements from the Prime Minister in relation to the 2011 breaches of Labour Party website databases. In his stand-up...
    Labour | 16-08
  • Labour committed to a healthier NZ for all
    A Labour Government will shift the focus of the health system from narrow targets and short term thinking to make public health and prevention a priority, Labour’s health spokesperson Annette King says. Releasing Labour’s full Health policy today she said...
    Labour | 15-08
  • Time Key took responsibility for Collins
    It is well past time for John Key to take some responsibility for the misuse of power and information by his Minister Judith Collins, and follow through on his last warning to her, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “The evidence released...
    Labour | 14-08
  • What Is Nicky Hager?
    WHAT WILL HISTORY MAKE of Nicky Hager? That slight, perpetually boyish, journalist who descends periodically, like the admonishing angel in a medieval mystery play, to trouble our consciences and wreak merry havoc with the orderly conduct of our political affairs....
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Can anyone in msm explain how after Dirty Politics that they all got played...
    Would you not think, that after reading Dirty Politics, that our mainstream media wouldn’t allow themselves to get tricked and played again by the VERY SAME discredited pundits? The best new feature on Radio NZ is their ‘Blog Watch’ and their...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Crusher Collins caught out lying about Privacy Commissioner – is this her...
    Crusher angry. Crusher smash own career. Crusher more angry. You would think that after getting outed as such a nasty, vicious piece of work in Dirty Politics, that Crusher would be scrambling to dial back the lies and manipulations. Apparently...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Cunliffe vs Key – first leaders debate
    This is your election ‘moderator’ – just one more reason an incoming Government need to sack everyone at TVNZ and reform it into an actual public broadcaster. The first leaders debate happens this Thursday, 7pm on TV One. I have...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – An Old and Honourable Profession
      When Dirty Politics started to reference an ex-prostitute I began to get antsy. My first response was “come on Nicky, we decriminalised in 2003. Its sex worker.” My second response was “Ah oh. Who was it and did they...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Bought and paid for: the dirty politics of climate denial
    Has climate denial in New Zealand been bought and paid for by corporate interests? We already know that the ACT Party’s routine denial is closely linked to the financial support the party receives from wealthy free market fundamentalist Alan Gibbs,...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • If the msm read The Daily Blog, THIS wouldn’t be a surprise – explainin...
    Yawn. How embarrassing for Hamish Rutherford and Andrea Vance, their breathless article today suggests that the idea of Labour and NZ First cutting a  deal over the buy back of assets  is some how new news. Silly mainstream media  journalists. If...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • How much tax does John Key pay compared to a minimum wage worker??
    Yesterday I did some calculations to find out what tax John Key pays compared to a worker on the minimum wage. And I put out this media release for the Mana Movement: MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Hip hop death threats – the selective outrage of our media
    PM death threat in hip hop songAn Auckland hip-hop crew slammed for releasing a song with lyrics that apparently include a threat to kill Prime Minister John Key are urging young people to enrol to vote. Kill The PM, by...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Watch Slater turn into Key right before your eyes
    Watch Slater turn into Key right before your eyes...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • I don’t always agree with Patrick Gower – but he didn’t deserve this!
    I don’t always agree with Patrick Gower – but he didn’t deserve this weird spear tackle from behind by his own company. I was listening to this interview at the time, and the awkwardness of it must be the worst...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Is it weird Radio NZ ban me yet still have….
    Is it weird Radio NZ ban me for life because I criticised the Prime Minister yet still have Matthew Hooton, David Farrar and Jordan Williams, 3 of the main protagonists revealed in Dirty Politics as part of their ongoing political...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Christchurch GCSB meeting – why mass surveillance matters in 2014
    This is the video for last weeks GCSB meeting in Christchurch. Don’t forget Nicky Hager’s public meeting Wednesday night in Auckland, TDB will live stream the event in the interests of our democracy. Broadcast starts 7.30pm here on TDB....
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Assange, Greenwald to appear at Town Hall meeting? + KDC is not the hacker ...
    Wikileaks founder and the engineer of revealing some of the largest abuses of power in the modern era, Julian Assange, is rumoured to be appearing at the September 15th Town Hall meeting. Assange would join award winning investigative journalist Glen...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Why Paula Bennett will be the next leader and Hooton throws the Prime Minis...
    I don’t think the public have any idea of the behind the scenes meltdown now occurring within National. There are plenty of decent right wingers who all have ethical standards who have looked at what their leaders have been doing and...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – That Awkward Feeling When Your Campaign Goe...
    Urgh. It’s a thankless and nearly impossible task politically firefighting some days. Somebody (who isn’t you, but who’s in your care, or whom you’ve got a close professional relationship with) does or says something stupid; somebody from the Media’s there...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Joe Trinder – Dirty politics goes viral
    Join the latest social networking craze this election that every Dog Cat and Jabba is putting on their facebook pages.     Joe Trinder – Ngāti Awa Born and born in Ōtepoti Ōtākou, Ex RNZN he is an Information Technology...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Blogwatch: An open letter to David Farrar: Please, be that guy
    Dear David, In light of  Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics, you wrote a blog entitled ‘Some changes on Kiwiblog’ and you suggested it was time to tighten up ship on your website, saying “I want to improve trust in myself,...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • What The Hell Was That! Reflections on the media’s coverage of the Intern...
    WHAT, EXACTLY, DO WE KNOW about the confrontation outside Internet-Mana’s campaign launch? Well, we know the news media was there in force. We also know Internet-Mana’s media person, Pam Corkery, blew her stack. We know that Corkery’s outburst led the...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • NZ First candidate – homophobic, bennie bashing anti-intellectual clown
    Oh God, apart from Ron Mark, Tracey Martin, Curwen Rolinson and Winston before midday, the woeful cavalcade of political circus freaks NZ First seem to attract has picked up another hitchhiker. This time Epsom candidate Cliff Lyon who said this about Labour… “If...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Nicky Hager Public Meeting LIVESTREAM on The Daily Blog 7.30pm Wednesday 27...
    As part of our commitment to the 2014 Election debate, The Daily Blog will Livestream the Nicky Hager public meeting in Auckland, 7.30pm live from the Mt Eden War Memorial this Wednesday on this site. Doors open at 7pm. It...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Opening Night. It’s like an opera!
    On Saturday night just gone, we collectively experienced one of the premier panegyrys of political pageantry in our three yearly electoral cycle. For one glorious weekend evening every three years, it’s not the All Blacks or some Super 14 team, or...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Unions – what ...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Timor-Leste’s Parliament handed ‘humiliating’ defeat over harsh media...
    East Timorese journalists raise their hands to approve the Timor-Leste JournalistCode of Ethics in October 2013. Photo: Tempo Semanal/Cafe Pacific   David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. PACIFIC SCOOP reported this week that East Timor’s Appeal Court had scrapped...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • THIS is why we need a public broadcaster!
    The richest 20% of us in NZ own 70% of the wealth, with 18% in the hands of the second richest quintile, and 10% in the hands of the middle quintile. Just 2 per cent was owned by people in...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • A vote for Key is a vote for this
    A vote for Key is a vote for this...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Why the Secret Intelligence Service feeding Cameron Slater information is s...
    Folks, it doesn’t matter if you are Right or Left, the issue of the Secret Intelligence Service being forced to feed a far right hate speech merchant like Cameron Slater with sensitive information is an ‘us’ issue. The SIS are...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • How lost and irrelevant are ACT?
    So ACT had it’s ‘launch’. Well, what passes as an ACT launch these days. Lot’s of anorak’s with that 1000 yard star and dreams of a Milton Friedman Free Market dancing behind their eyelids all crammed into a room small...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • National Party rowing advert aimed at Gen Xers
    Unkind wags such as myself would suggest that if the above were a real representation of National, it would look more like this…   National know they have the rural mob and the angry provincial vote locked in, with their...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • National Housing propaganda – McGehan Close Revisited
    .   . Housing has become a major, defining issue in New Zealand. We have critical shortages and escalating prices in  in the main centres and falling house values in the regions. The National government has addressed the supply &...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • The boldest, most creative and dynamic policy on employment for two generat...
    If you watched TV news last night you could be forgiven for thinking that a circus was on when Internet MANA launched its election campaign today. The reporting was abysmal but I won’t rehash it here because it’s been described...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Call for Aaron Bhatnagar’s resignation from govt body
    .   . One of the many sordid “bit”-players in Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Politics“, and one of Cameron Slater’s inner-cabal, is businessman, National Party card-carrying cadre,  and former city councillor, Aaron Bhatnagar; . . In 2008, Bhatnagar was caught...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Internet MANA announce free tertiary education & full employment – me...
    Internet MANA launch their campaign after an extraordinary road tour and after gaining 4% in the Colmar Brunton Poll, today should have been the start point for a momentous occasion  in progressive political history. It was, but sadly most won’t...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • Privilege denies true representation of disability rights
    The human right of people with disabilities in New Zealand has come back into the spotlight by the Human Rights Commission. The report named ‘Making Disability Rights Real’ highlights some of the main issues as being adequate data collection, accessibility,...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Election TV campaign ads – Opening Night
    . .The infamous National Party ‘Dancing Cossacks’ Attack advert  NZ, 23 August -  The election campaign “kicked off” on Saturday evening, with a one hour “televisual feast”. Party advertisements were broadcast for National, Labour, Greens, NZ First, United Future/Peter Dunne,...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Blogging vs Journalism vs Politics – The 7 latest revolting revelations
    So we now enter the most dangerous phase for National, the phase where the minutia of detail is so great now, the media have all the ammunition to keep asking questions that clearly show Key isn’t being honest in his...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • A positive story of political co-operation!
    .   . Wellington, NZ, 23 August - The following is a true story and shows how the natural inclination of the rank-and-file of our main left-wing parties is to work together… I’ve been in contact with both the Green...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • “Dirty Politics” – the fall-out continues…
    . . As the shock-wave from Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Politics” continues to engulf everything in it’s path, it’s worthwhile looking at the damage caused by the ever-expanding fallout… Fallout Dispersal Zone: 1oom Farrar wrote on 19 August  (and later...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • #TeamKey’s sinking boat
    #TeamKey’s sinking boat...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Cat vs Key – I know nuffin
    Cat vs Key – I know nuffin...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • Israel’s sudden fixation with Hamas
    Israel’s sudden fixation with Hamas...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • A Matter of Whether John Key is Credible
    Headline: A Matter of Whether John Key is Credible Analysis by Selwyn Manning. Prime Minister, John Key.WITHIN NATIONAL’S STRATEGY TEAM there is an acceptance that the facts revealed in the book, Dirty Politics, is chewing away at the party’s popular...
    The Daily Blog | 23-08
  • TDB Political Diary for 2014 Election
    Here are the political events TDB will be covering this election. I will be live tweeting these events and  blog reviews will follow the next day. Internet MANA launch – August – Sunday 24th – 1pm, Western Springs School Green...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • One man’s struggle to find a copy of Dirty Politics
    I’m typing this on top of Dirty Politics.  I got the last copy yesterday morning at the local branch of a chain bookshop.  I was really in to get the paper.  I know it sold out – everyone knows - but the first thing...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • From Tucker to Key – while you were out
      From Tucker to Key – while you were out...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Amnesty International – Justice is not Blind in Ferguson
    When a US cop pulls a gun on an unarmed man, he could be acting upon a series of impulses that have been formed since before he or she could talk. What does that police officer see in front of...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Putting an end to zero-hour contracts in 2015
    All around the world attention is being drawn to what have been dubbed in the UK “zero-hour contracts”. These are contracts that don’t have any guaranteed hours even though the worker may be regularly employed. Unite Union has been struggling...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • NZ’s Foreign Aid: The Party Policies Compared
    For the past two elections, I’ve cast my vote based on a single question, which party promises to give the most money in foreign aid? I grant that this is a fairly narrow and simplistic lens through which to judge...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Steering By The Real: Chris Trotter responds to Paul Buchanan
    WHEN ACADEMICS take to blogging the rest of us best be careful. And when they offer comment on the subject of dirty politics we should all pay attention. I will always remember my history lecturer, Dr Michael Cullen’s, confident dismissal...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Interview Between Selwyn Manning & Sean Plunket Over SIS Release of OIA...
    During a RadioLive interview between host Sean Plunket and managing director of Multimedia Investments Ltd, journalist Selwyn Manning, a fiery exchange developed after Plunket attempted to “wet flannel” the issue of whether the Prime Minister has been truthful over what...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Toke the Vote 2014: NORML’s guide to NZ cannabis policies
    NORML’s policy, renewed at our recent national conference , is to encourage supporters to vote for parties and candidates who will work to reform our cannabis laws....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Internet Mana List Embodies Modern Aotearoa
    An impressive mix of personal and professional skills, cultural backgrounds and ages marks the release of Internet MANA’s combined party list. “Our list highlights the calibre of talent woven throughout Internet MANA,” said leader Hone Harawira....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • The Dirty Politics Fallout
    Tonight’s 3News-Reid Research poll shows that the Conservative Party is on the verge of making it into the next Parliament, even without an electorate deal with National. The poll, conducted in the week following the release of Nicky Hager’s...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Te reo Māori trending at New Zealand Fashion Week
    Language and fashion express culture and identity so it’s fitting for the Māori Party to launch its te reo Māori policy at New Zealand’s premiere fashion event in Auckland....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Party And Candidate Lists for 2014 Election Released
    The Electoral Commission has released the nominations for the 2014 General Election, with 15 registered political parties and 554 candidates contesting the election....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Take Steps Against Child Poverty with Us!
    TAKE STEPS AGAINST CHILD POVERTY WITH US! Britomart to Aotea Square, Auckland, 11am, Saturday 6 Sept Music * Interactive Art * Stilt Walkers * Great Speakers * Plus more!...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Leading politicians to debate NZ’s role in the world
    Have you ever wondered where New Zealand stands when it comes to issues beyond our borders? Join Amnesty International's North Shore Group on Monday 1 September for a lively cross party debate and the chance to find out the answer...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Political Debate on Family Violence – Livestream
    The Dunedin Collaboration Against Family Violence is happy to announce the upcoming political debate on Family Violence chaired by Professor Nicola Atwool of the University of Otago. Family Violence is a huge problem in our community and we invite representatives...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Politicians ignore 20% of New Zealanders
    Despite 20% of New Zealanders supporting it, none of the parties currently represented in Parliament endorse the legalisation of cannabis....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Company tax rates
    The Op Ed pages of the left-leaning New York Times are full of articles by economists supporting proposals to dramatically lower Company Taxes. These economists are urging the United States to lower company taxes and point to Canada where the...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Stephen Dudley Case: No appeal or review of discharge
    On 8 August 2014 Crown Law received a request from the office of the Auckland Crown Solicitor to consider a Crown appeal against the discharge without conviction entered in respect of M in the High Court at Auckland on 7...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Dudley Family Statement
    “We are utterly devastated at the news regarding the law not allowing for this unjustified discharge without conviction to be appealed....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Chief Judge: Chief Sized Offender Bias
    “Justice by name, not by nature” states Ruth Money Sensible Sentencing Trust National Spokesperson, of Justice Helen Winkelmann’s decision to discharge without conviction the offender charged with the fatal attack on 15 year old schoolboy Stephen...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Confusion over BPS Reducing Crime and Reoffending Results
    A survey has revealed widespread confusion – even amongst professionals in the justice sector – about what the government’s reducing crime and reoffending progress reports actually mean....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Commission condemns violent attack on Gay Wellingtonians
    The Human Rights Commission has condemned a violent attack on staff and patrons at a gay bar in central Wellington last Friday. GayNZ reported that the alleged attackers were abusive and violent when they realised the bar and the people...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • One down, 12 to go says Community Housing Aotearoa
    The Waimahia Inlet is a step in the right direction for community housing to deliver 20% of New Zealand’s social and affordable housing by 2020, says Community Housing Aotearoa. CHA Director Scott Figenshow says the sector has been set a...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Research considering changes to pedestrian crossing laws
    A University of Canterbury research project has been considering the costs and benefits of a range of potential changes to pedestrian crossing laws that would bring New Zealand in line with the rest of the world....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Dairy farmers and consumers at risk from unapproved GE Grain
    The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) must immediately test all maize and soy for presence of unapproved GE lines coming from the Americas....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • NZ on Air Refuse to Condemn “Kill the PM” Song
    New Zealand On Air has refused to condemn @peace’s 'Kill the PM' song, and will not provide any assurance that no further taxpayer money will be used to support groups that promote violence and political hate. Earlier today the Taxpayers’...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #32
    The combined wisdom of iPredict’s 8000 registered traders suggests National has begun a recovery after its prospects crashed last week following the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics . The governing party’s forecast party vote is back...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Juicy carrot for prisoners alarming suggestion – McVicar
    The Conservative Party Justice Spokesman, Garth McVicar says the public will be alarmed to learn that the only tool the Corrections Department has available to get prisoners to behave is to offer them a juicy carrot....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Panel: Fiji’s Return to Democracy
    Fiji’s post-coup elections and their impact in the Pacific o What is the role of the media in the Elections? o How might New Zealand help Fiji on its return to democracy?...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Cross-party consensus on climate change critical
    Senior NZ health professionals welcome recent policy announcements on climate change by major political parties, saying cross-party consensus is critical to address this leading health issue....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Minister of Transport to Attend Election Debate Tomorrow
    Organisers of tomorrow night's transport debate in Auckland are delighted that Minister of Transport Hon. Gerry Brownlee will now be attending....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Society Applauds Proposed NZ-Wide Risk Assessment
    The Wise Response Society is heartened to see that Labour' just released Climate Change policy includes formal support for the Society's call for a New Zealand-wide Risk Assessment. The Green Party has also formally acknowledged support for the Wise...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Iwi Leaders welcome Labour policy on climate change
    Labour’s policy to stamp out price – gouging by big polluters that has cost New Zealand tax-payers $1.4 billion over the last 3 years and especially impacted low – income Maori households has been welcomed by Dr. Apirana Mahuika, Chairman...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Auckland Broadcasting Debate this Sunday
    Auckland Broadcasting Debate 6.30pm, August 31st 2014 (doors open 6.15pm) Pioneer Women's Hall High Street, Auckland City...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • New Zealand First Party List 2014
    New Zealand First is pleased to release the Party list for the 2014 election. We believe the list is a balance of experience, youth, skill and ability. These candidates, many of whom will be in Parliament after the election, will...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Refugee Policy in Election Year
    Leading politicians representing major political parties will be highlighting their policies, answering questions and ebating the issues in the lead-up to the coming election in an event organised by RCNZ this coming Saturday in Auckland. The present...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Intueri shareholders celebrate corporate welfare
    New Zealand's largest tertiary education company Intueri, which announced a $1.6 million profit yesterday, has received an increase in public funding over the last two years of at least $1.8 million....
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Response to “Kill The PM” Song Coverage
    I do not want to literally kill this man. I do not wish to have sexual relations with anybody related to him. Let's not pretend a silly little song ever changed anything. Last I seen famine was still going pretty...
    Scoop politics | 26-08
  • Sarjeant Gallery redevelopment resource consent approved
    Mayor Annette Main has welcomed the granting of resource consent for the Sarjeant Gallery Te Whare o Rehua Whanganui redevelopment project....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • How much tax does PM pay compared to a minimum wage worker?
    John Minto, MANA Movement Economic Justice Spokesperson Tuesday 26 August, 2014 MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is calling for a radical overhaul of New Zealand’s taxation system with calculations showing that a minimum wage...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Aucklanders to March in Solidarity with Iraqi Christians
    Hundreds of people are expected at a march this weekend in Auckland's Queen St, calling for solidarity with persecuted minorities in Iraq....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Why not let Robin Hood help our children thrive?
    Why have we been so willing to accept the fact that a quarter of our children live in poverty? And why are we so unwilling to do anything about it when some simple measures would give all New Zealand’s kids...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Te Mana o Te Wai – the quality and vitality of water
    The Māori Party intends introducing legislation that gives the status of taonga to freshwater and will prioritise the improvement of its quality and vitality making it safer for drinking, swimming and gathering food....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • “Kill the PM” Band @Peace with Taxpayers’ Money
    Responding to the Fairfax article that hip-hop group @peace have released a track that threatens to kill the Prime Minister and have sex with his daughter, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says:...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • New Zealanders are right to be afraid of burglars
    “A poll in a major morning newspaper shows New Zealanders are afraid they will be burgled. They are definitely right about that,” said Dr. Jamie Whyte ACT Leader. “Official Police statistics report less than half of the burglaries that actually...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • National and Labour to outline economic visions
    The deputy leaders of National and Labour will outline their visions for the New Zealand economy in two upcoming public lectures hosted by Victoria University of Wellington....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Objectionable Hip-Hop Song Offensive to All NZ’ers
    Family First is slamming Auckland hip-hop crew @peace for their new release containing lyrics that threaten to kill Prime Minister John Key and have sex with his daughter....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Maori party Candidates Announced
    Maori Party Candidates Announced The Māori Party has today announced its list of 24 candidates to contest the 2014 General Election. "The list is headed by our co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, and followed by two brilliant young candidates, number...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Commercial Industry Opposes Recreational Fishing Policy
    Press release from Alan Simmons. United Future Outdoors spokesperson and Candidate for Taupo. United Future Party President....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Statement on William Yan
    The Internet Party has noted published comments from Mega Ltd. about a shareholding in the company being subject to a Restraining Order by police under the Criminal Proceeds (Recovery) Act in relation to Mr William Yan....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Conservatives will abolish Parole – McVicar
    The Conservative Party Justice Spokesman says that one of his first tasks when he gets to Parliament will be to overhaul the Parole system. On current polling and the fact he is ranked No 3 on the Conservative Party list...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • ONE News & Facebook – Election Coverage Collaboration
    Auckland - ONE News and Facebook are collaborating to offer an interactive and social experience for the 2014 General Election utilising data insights and trends. This collaboration provides a new way for the electorate and candidates to share their...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Vote Compass Reaches 200,000+ Respondents
    On Friday 22 August the total number of respondents to Vote Compass reached an impressive 200,000 - and that number continues to grow rapidly (the total was more than 204,500 as of 5.00pm Sunday 24th)....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Climate Policies Commit to Single Most Important Reform
    Labour’s response to climate change includes the single most important reform required - a Carbon Budgeting process and a Climate Commission to drive it....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Foodies come out for a CAN DO government
    Wellington culinary celebrities will be joining the call for a “can-do government” and supporting “can-do people getting out to vote” as they help build the beehive out of cans tomorrow....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Nicky Hagar – Auckland Public Meeting
    A public meeting meeting with Jesson Prize winner Nicky Hagar will be held Wednesday 27th August, 7.30pm, at the Mt Eden War Memorial Hall (Cnr Dominion Rd & Balmoral Rd)....
    Scoop politics | 25-08
  • Remote Pacific atoll challenge lures Christchurch planner
    How do you come up with an urban development plan for a city which consists of tiny islets connected by causeways located in a remote Pacific atoll and subject to flooding on the next king tide?...
    Scoop politics | 25-08
Images of the election
Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere