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Trends good for Left, much work to do

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 78 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags: , ,

It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then see polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads (‘National’s still well ahead of Labour, nothing to see here’) and look at the trends. They tell a story of a government well past its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?

The TV1 and TV3 polls are pretty useless because they’re so infrequent that you can’t look at movements month by month and you can’t know if a given poll is an odd-ball out of line with the trends but they both show the same thing as the Roy Morgans – that National/ACT’s support peaked in September/October 2009 and has fallen since. For this graph, I’ve added New Zealand First into the ‘Left’ with Labour and the Greens because it’s clear he can work with them and not with National, and it’s pretty likely they’ll get up over 5% in the end.

So, significant falls for the Right and rises for the Left in the past year and a bit. Note the decline in ‘other’, too. That’s the Maori Party and United Future, which is not even registering now. Now, let’s just look at the gap between the two potential governing blocs.

According to all three polls, the gap has more than halved since Sept/Oct 09 – the only difference being how big the gap was in the first place and how much remains. If we were to project these trends to November, the Left could be well ahead of the Right or within about 5% – striking distance.

This is why waiting until November was such a huge mistake. Support will ebb away due to the failing economy, oil prices, public service cuts, asset sales, and the edges coming off Brand Key (he lost 10% of his support as preferred PM in three months according to both the TV1 and TV3 polls). The longer until the election, the more chance Key has of losing.

Key’s best chance remains having 4% or so of the anti-National vote wasted on NZF. That was the reason for Key ruling out working with Winston. He was hoping to break NZF’s resurgence. It seems he failed. In fact, he seems to have galvanised NZF support.

Things are trending the right way for the Left but the rest of the gap won’t close by itself. Its up to the Left, not just the party hierarchies, you and me as well, to make the case for switching from National to a Left party (back to a Left party, for most of the target voters). We need to get something between 2% and 6.5% of voters to move away from National. Labour, the Greens, and NZF will all be making strong cases against cuts and privatisation. These are the two topics they would all be well advised to focus on because clear majorities of voters support their positions.

Now, Rob Salmond decided to have a go at me over my poll posts the other day. I didn’t get to the end of his 2000-odd word treatise but the point was that one shouldn’t try to extrapolate from past polling trends because long-term trends don’t exist. David Farrar linked to the post and said exactly the opposite thing – you can’t draw conclusions from short-term trends. (Trevor Mallard also linked to it, but I couldn’t ascertain his point).

Both Salmond and Farrar are right and they’re both wrong. There clearly are multi-year trends in polls. Typically, a party’s popularity will rise over several years until it gains power, then it will peak in popularity a year or two later and begin a gradual descent – think Labour from the mid-90s through the 2000s, or National’s rise mirroring Labour’s decline from 2002 to 2009, when National’s support peaked. I believe there’s little parties can do about these tides except affect how quickly they go in or out. My projections are simply indicators of where the trends are heading. They are not intended to be predictions of actual numbers. I would note that the Roy Morgans are trending in line with the trend lines I drew months ago.

Of course, during election campaigns, support levels can change rapidly and unpredictably but they change from the levels that the parties go into the campaign with. They can also change rapidly in response to unpopular government policies even when the Opposition is weak – look at Kevin Rudd’s downfall after he announced the mining tax and look at how support for the Conservatives and Lib Dems has plummeted in the UK because of their austerity measures.

Key, so far, has avoided unpopular policies but the cuts are coming and so are asset sales. Both the trend and the campaign ought to come out against the Right this year. When you look beyond the simplistic question ‘is National ahead of Labour?’ to the reality of changing voter preferences between the potential governments, it’s clear that this is going to come down to the wire.

PS. Just saw Farrar’s post on the polls: “Many on the left claimed that [the asset sales policy] would reverse the lead in the polls.” No-one claimed that the lead would flip overnight. We’ve said privatisation will narrow the gap and the gap is narrowing.

78 comments on “Trends good for Left, much work to do”

  1. What I would like to know is why did TVNZ and TV3 come out with polls on the same day? And why did Roy Morgan delay the announcement of its regular poll?

    The timing was poor. The Government had a shocker last week (beneficiaries and bad choices and BMWs) and it is a shame that the polling did not occur this week.

    • Marty G 1.1

      yeah. the TV1 and TV3 polls were completed over a week ago which means they were largely conducted before the asset sales issue really blew up on National and completely before the limo/poor budgeting stories.

      But, to be fair, it does take time to crunch the numbers and apply the ‘witches’ brew’ of re-weightings that are needed to make sure a poll’s sample reflects the general population’s demographic make-up. Each polling company has its own, secret, formulas for these re-weightings.

      The Roy Morgan is twice a month. To keep it that way, every so often there’s a three-week, rather than two-week, gap. It’ll be out this Thursday probably.

    • Salsy 1.2

      Is the Roy Morgan out? I still cant find it and the last one was feb 4

  2. Alistair 2

    A very good read.

    Whatever your view on Peters may be he knows how to write a speech that attracts attention, raise emotions, and gain votes. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1102/S00190/speech-peters-public-meeting-kelston-community-hall.htm

    Leave it to him to deal with asset sales and close the polling gap.

    • patriot_nz 2.1

      I read Winston’s speech yesterday and was impressed with it. I agree with him- this is the last chance to save New Zealand as a sovereign nation.

      And as for those polls- I despair. This feels like the 90′s. It took a whole decade to get rid of the neolibs last time- we just don’t have that sort of time and it is almost too late now anyway. People are starting to agitate on the net about National, but maybe those voices are people who would voted left anyway.

      New Zealand is an unusual place in that the most able people leave- some 25% of them. I do seriously wonder if the intelligence bell curve has been pushed way to the left in New Zealand and we have a population that cannot see cause and effect. Either that or that vicious streak that runs through the people here means that half of the population simply don’t care about anyone or anything.

      • Marty G 2.1.1

        “This feels like the 90′s”

        If we had had MMP in 1993 then a Labour-Alliance government would have formed 53% of the vote. And in 1996 everyone expected NZF to go with Labour when they voted for Winston.

        Remember, the people of this country have been smart enough to vote for Labour-led governments every time except twice from 1978 to now. FPP defeated us three times – 78, 81, 93 – Winston’s betrayal got us in 96, and Brand Key got us in 2008. I think it’s unfair and too easy to say the people are too dumb to vote what’s best for them.

        • Anthony C 2.1.1.1

          I wouldn’t say dumb, but a large percentage of the middle vote only break their apathy once they start to get hit hard (or their kids get hit). By then, just like the 90′s the damage is done.

          I’d suggest a lot of these people are busy, don’t have time to engage fully and just have MSM snippets to guide their decisions.

          Also seems to be a national surge of anti-intellectualism at them moment…

        • patriot_nz 2.1.1.2

          Marty- yes- I hear what you are saying about the FPP voting system and how it cost the left in the 90′s. But in spite of having MMP now it feels like it is going to be just as difficult to get rid of the neolibs as it was in the 90′s. And more people cared back then about fairness and egalitarianism.

          I do think seeing cause and effect is a problem in general in politics. The rise of the Tea party in the USA seems to me to be a prime example. Screwed over by the right for decades, some people’s response is to go further to the right in their anger. They just don’t seem to realise the right outsourced their jobs years and years ago and have stopped them from getting healthcare etc. And the left has totally failed the people as well whenever they got the chance to take power over those decades.

          I think NZ might be a different place if it wasn’t for Australia mopping up our thinkers, movers and shakers. People leave instead of agitating for change.

  3. Carol 3

    Marty:

    Its up to the Left, not just the party hierarchies, you and me as well, to make the case for switching from National to a Left party (back to a Left party, for most of the target voters).

    Yes, I was thinking this morning that we need a grassroots, groundswell to show the left parties the way we want to go. We could do with a widely publicised (posters, word-of-mouth, blogs, etc), nation-wide, day of demonstrations, of the “NZ is not forsale” kind.

    • Alistair 3.1

      Winston, Phil, Russell, Hone leading a “NZ Not For Sale” march. Is this the main issue that unifies the Left?

    • neoleftie 3.2

      sounds like a fine plan – we’ll call it the ‘long march’ but seriously apart from a jaded local party organisation and a party elite labour is lacking in an organisation
      the devolpment of long term imbedded ‘cells’ is one option or ‘tea parties’ or even plunket to stimulate and modify understanding and expand the base support for the ‘catch all party’.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.1

        I think all these ideas and more need to be considered. There have to be new ways and new formats of getting people involved in the Labour Party.

        Too many Labour meetings I’ve attended would put the living dead back to sleep. Of course there have also been a few doozies :D

        • neoleftie 3.2.1.1

          well both my electorates over the years have had Labour cabinet ministers as MP’s so the level of feedback has been interesting over the years and my highschool umm ‘political discussion group’ had the future labour leader as an active participant. kinda molded from a young age to realising the truths about inequality i guess

        • Jum 3.2.1.2

          Colonial Viper
          Trouble is, these people working in the background, get little cabinet/party support when they try to fundraise – a high profile Labour MP rolling his or her sleeves up would be really useful. They need to get their faces out there actually meeting the people who raise their money for them. Money is tight. A garage sale by a Labour group is on in Papakura this Saturday, according to an ad I saw. Who is going to be there to support that? Those are where you meet the people, not at some ra ra event where the people are going to vote for Labour anyway.

          Money is tight for the real people of NZ and these fundraisers are pulling the stops out to dream up new ways of making money for Labour to fight the election. They’re doing it because they know this year will save New Zealand if Labour gets in or Americanize New Zealand if Key gets in with his automatic mandate to sell. (Notice I said Labour and Key; there is multi talent in Labour in Parliament but only Key in National).

          Some actors that are agin the TPPA could take part.

          Anyone can paint a board ‘NZ Not For Sale’ or ‘Vote for Key is a Mandate to Sell out NZers’.

  4. Zaphod Beeblebrox 4

    If National are only sitting at 52 or 53% at present, they are in trouble. Its unlikely they would regain lost voters at this stage. When you see they way the news cycle turns like it has over the past few weeks- its only a matter of time before the polls turn. Have a look at how things turned against Labor in the federal and Victorian elections last year the longer campaigning went on.

    Given the way food and fuel prices are going this year- the cost of living argument is going to be a killer for Key. No amount of demonising welfare recipients and public servants is going to hide that.

  5. nadis 5

    so you are saying you can create a trend from two points?

    go on, calculate the confidence interval around the null hypothesis you are making……… that would be enlightening. When doing statistical analysis you can not wish away inconvenient data and when you do extrapolate, the confidence you have around your forecast is more than slightly dependent on the amount of data you use. If you handed in this analysis in a stage one stats paper to me I would send it back with an F.

    However, do i believe anecdotally that the gap is closing- yes it always will in in an election year. The sad reality though for labour is that the left could scratch out a win if it had a leader who resonated even slightly with wider population (not sure who that is – personally I could identify with a Grant Robertson leader/Shane Jones deputy team. Grant at least looks like a technocrat rather than an idealogue.) The mistakes National have been making lately are as significant as any of the last term cock ups under Clarke. My prediction is the election will be very close but Nats will govern mostly alone, and Labour will kick themselves senseless as they realise how close they got with a fifth choice leader (hey at least he is more preferred than Helen now!) and a timid front bench of time servers designed by factional tradeoffs.

    You know, the ultimate nightmare for Labour will be when Winston starts polling higher than Goff as preferred prime minister (hint: Labour strategists, devise a strategy to deal with this). This will be comedy gold, I can already see the fun Key, the media and bloggers will have with that. There’s hours of stand up comedy embedded in that idea.

  6. handle 6

    You don’t foresee a problem getting Winston to agree to work with the Greens given his past history?

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      Depends how much he wants to stop the Nats, doesn’t it?

    • Bright Red 6.2

      NZF supported the ETS and he’s on the same page when it comes to economic sovereignty/asset sales.

      that’s a difference between the conservative right like Winston and the neoliberals who now dominate national. He believes in state interventionist economices and economic sovereignty – the neoliberals don’t. Winston left National over their neoliberal reforms.

      Economically, Winston now closer to the Left than the Right. It’s on the social front that he is conservative and the Left would be well advised to concentrate on economic rather than social issues anyway in the sixth Labour-led government.

      • Colonial Viper 6.2.1

        It’s on the social front that he is conservative and the Left would be well advised to concentrate on economic rather than social issues anyway in the sixth Labour-led government.

        Its probably what Labour should have done anyway in its last term (focus far more on economic reforms), but they seemed much less energised by then.

        There is a good interface between the social front and the economic front – 5 weeks annual leave, 20 weeks paid parental leave, etc. I don’t think that Peters will have any issues supporting initiatives in that vein, and they are excellent ones for building community cohesion and supporting individual health.

      • handle 6.2.2

        If Winston’s position is close to the Greens, why did he refuse to be in government with them?

        • Blighty 6.2.2.1

          times were different. he was in a position to extract more leverage by keeping the greens out. and the greens are different now too

          • Lanthanide 6.2.2.1.1

            Yes, if the votes had come out different, such that Labour could have easily chosen Labour + Green + X, with National needing National + X + Y + Z, then either Dunne or Winston probably would’ve sucked it up and gone with the Greens. But that’s not how the calculus played out.

  7. You might like to consider the size of the Parliamentary blocks, instead of the overall percentages. If NZF goes from 2% to 4% then the left goes up under your analysis, but that could actually be worse for it.

    • Lanthanide 7.1

      If you read the text, he says that:
      1. He is assuming NZFirst gets over 5%
      2. National’s best chance is if NZFirst sits around 4% and doesn’t meet the threshold.

  8. Afewknowthetruth 8

    I still cannot figire out why so many people are so enthusiastic to replace one set of liars and clowns with another set of liars and clowns.

    I suppose it’s just that people are ingnorant of the facts and too thick to see that politics is just a game played out at the kindergarten level -all of it designed to make the proles think their vote is worth something.

    Historic economic and social arrangements are in the process of collapsing globally right now. The ship’s going down and it will make no difference which bunch of clowns [that constitute governments and pretend to know what they are doing] is in power.

    I suppose ordinary people will start to get it when fuel is $3 a litre and they can’t afford what’s on the supermarket shelves, or when the supermarket shelves are empty.

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      If you think governments, and their response to impending crisis, are 100% interchangeable with no difference between them, then you’re in denial.

      Now, is Labour likely to handle peak oil better than National? On balance it looks like ‘no’, but there’s much more room for Labour to manoeuvre – they certainly seem more interested in helping those worst-off in society, a demographic that is likely to increase dramatically should certain peak oil scenarios eventuate.

      I think out of anyone in parliament the Greens are likely to handle peak oil better than anyone else (see their insistence on public transport and biking). Does that mean they’re going to be a magic bullet and solve all our problems with a snap of their fingers? Of course not.

      As far as basic necessities of life go, NZ has all the ingredients to provide for it’s population without anyone suffering – most developed countries actually do. The question is whether we choose to organise ourselves economically and socially to do so. Such choices may seem unthinkable at the moment, but things can change very very rapidly when the public at large get serious about it – just look at Egypt.

      Because we have a choice coming up later this year, surely it’s better to choose the team that you think will do the most good in the situation, even if they fall far far short of what you think is necessary to solve the problem.

      • Colonial Viper 8.1.1

        Now, is Labour likely to handle peak oil better than National? On balance it looks like ‘no’, but there’s much more room for Labour to manoeuvre

        LAB are far friendlier to public transport, farm waste sourced biofuels, home energy efficiency measures, policies which build localised community and industrial capabilities than National.

        Is it enough, hell no. But its a far better starting point than you’ll get with Bill and John.

      • Afewknowthetruth 8.1.2

        The last Labour Government was given mountains of information on peak oil (from 2001 onwards by the way, a time when some mitigation would have been possible) and they chose to completely ignore all of it and carry on as thoiugh energy supply was of no imporatnce whatsoever..

        Don’t forget it was that clown Cullen who invested billion of our dollars in international market that were about to plunge, and so lost billions of our money. And right now there is a new speculative bubble forming

        I can assure you I have numerous letters from Labour Ministers and MPs over the years that all clearly demonstrate they are all f**wits.

        In case you did not know. peak oil was between 2005 and 2008. We are on the way down right now and it is not even on the agenda for discussion. Nor will it be.

        If you have such confidence in Labour I suggest you write to Phil Goff and ask what his strategy for dealing with Peak OIl is. I 100% guarantee you will get back a fob-off letter that is already in the PC, one that blathers on about NZ being given advice by the IEA (which admitted it was wrong about PO in Novermber 2010 by the way: you don’t see that in the headlines.) , and nonsense about the Energy Conservation Authroity, biofuels and other drivel. The vast majority of policians are only capapable of churning out drivel because drivel corresponds to thier intelligence level. Oh, and don’t forget we are going to set up new free trade deals … as per Helen Clark’s sabotage the NZ economy strategy.

        As for the Green Party. what a joke they are. They sat on Peak Oil information for 6 years and did nothing, then came out with idiotic strategies based on biofuels, which we all know are technically flawed from the outset and are in many respects worse than using oil. And the Grens came out even more idiotic strategies, like promoting tourism as a ‘sustanable growth industry’. Sorry mate, the Greens are saboteurs and f**wits, just like the rest.

        ‘even if they fall far far short of what you think is necessary to solve the problem.’

        The time for solutions was the last time Labour were in power. It’s too late now. I’d be surprised if present economic arrangements last until election day. Breat oil is now over $100, a level which causes the world economy to implode.

        As I have said many times. most people are totally ignorant of the facts and just don’t get it. They are unreachable and are basically self-selecting for destitution.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1

          So because, during 2001 to 2008, when there was incontrovertible proof that peak oil was happening the Labour government refused to do anything, you are assuming that in the coming years when there (presumably) will be incontrovertible proof that Labour will still choose not to do anything?

          Yes, it would’ve been nice if Labour had done something during that time. But what do you honestly expect – if they’d started making realistic changes in 2001, they would’ve lost the 2002 election and we would’ve had TAX CUTS!! under a national government anyway. I think you should be blaming the system in equal parts to how you blame Labour – they can only work within the social, economic and political framework set up in this country, a framework that is completely incapable of dealing with peak oil and climate change sort of problems. The general public are mindless sheep and won’t wake up to peak oil until it is screaming at them in the face, by which point it will of course be too late.

          That, of course, is all history. Given that our system is giving us a choice later this year, would you rather choose to go with the party that has a slim hope of doing something meaningful to address the situation, or would you rather choose the party that is almost certain to stall for time and make things worse through inaction?

          • Lanthanide 8.1.2.1.1

            Sorry, that first sentence should say:
            “when there was NO incontrovertible proof that peak oil was happening ”

            That is, while many people were raising the peak oil problem with Labour, there wasn’t any proof you could look at, beyond reasonable doubt, and say “this proves it”.

            • Draco T Bastard 8.1.2.1.1.1

              There was plenty of evidence around to say that Peak Oil would happen in that decade. It’s been around since the 1960s. No proof because the proof would only be available after Peak Oil. Labour failed to do anything with the data that had been building up over 40+ years and they still look like they aren’t going to do anything. They really need to come out and say that they are planning for the decline in oil availability.

              • Lanthanide

                Hubbert originally predicted oil would peak in 1995. He was sorely wrong from two major factors: hugely reduction in use during the 70′s and early 80′s, but he was also wildly off in terms of total production.

                That’s the problem with predicting something as massively fundamental as oil production and consumption: there are many many people all over the world doing everything they can to improve the oil flow, as well as other people simultaneously making oil use more efficient or trying to replace it with other fuels (no oil-fuelled power plants any more, they all use coal because it’s more cost effective).

                Even if it turns out that we did peak between 2005 and 2008 (and there’s still a chance we could exceed those levels), that particular peaking hasn’t made a huge difference to how we’re living at the moment, and it may not for some years yet. Perhaps ‘peak oil’ isn’t as much a problem as ‘peak plateau oil’, and as long as you realise you’re on a plateau before you fall off, reasonable mitigation can be undertaken.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  He may have been out by a bit but his theory was proven when US hit their local Peak Oil in 1971. We should have started planning for Peak Oil then or, even better, limiting oil use and that was 40 years ago. There really is no excuse for heading into oil decline unprepared.

            • Afewknowthetruth 8.1.2.1.1.2

              If you know anything about government and risk management you will know that governemnt pours millions of dollars into evaluating risks that have a close to zero probability …. volcanic eruptions with a 1 in 500 or less chance of occruing etc. The government puts zero money into evaluating peak oil, which has a 100% certainty. In that sense they are all completely insane. It’s the same for abrupt cliamte change, which is a bigger risk that peak oil and gets zero attention.

              I undestand why all this lunacy continues: everything is driven MED and the insane rantings of economists, who, amongst other things believe in perpetual growth on a finite planet. If thaty’s not insantiy, what is?

              When you are dealing with a life-threatening situation, which peak oil is, you look for the best evidence. Contrary to what you say, there was incontrovertible evidence peak oil would occur before 2020 and it was nearly a certainty it would occur before 2010. Oil extraction data from 1998 onwards indicated we were closing in on the bumpy plateuau. (Now we about to fall off it).

              As anyone who has studied the topic knows, the Hirch Report to the US government highlighted he fact that any society would need 20 years to transition, i.e. even if peak oil were as far out as 2020, preparations needed to have commenced around the year 2000.

              If you study the topic you will note that the first warming was given loud and clear in 1956 and by 1971, when the US peaked and went into decline (just as Hubbert had prediceted it would) it was obvious to anyone with a brain that the world was in deep trouble.

              If you are looking for solutions, do not look ot any of the current crop of polical hacks They only know the politics of failure.

              The part I don’t get: why people think they have to choose between one bunch of idiots and saboteurs and another bunch of idiots and saboteurs. instead \of looking outside the box. I guess it’s just blind faith.

              Brent oil is nearly $103: the next round of collapse will be underway soon.

              • Colonial Viper

                If you are looking for solutions, do not look ot any of the current crop of polical hacks They only know the politics of failure.

                Are you trying to be a fraking idiot? There are two little things in the way of change happening the way I believe you would like to see it happening.

                1) Our highly fiscalised, globalised interest bearing debt based capitalist economy. Which demands growth growth growth, even if it kills all of us in the process.

                2) Our interlocking system of inefficient, slow representative democracy, moneyed capitalist interest groups and disengaged ill-informed short-termism voters.

                Trying to look for a hero politician or huddle of hero politicians is useless because unless you deal with the above you will always get similar results. Different monkeys playing out variations on the same tune on the same grinder. And you appear (to me anyway) to have no ideas with how to deal with the above.

                So stop complaining and come up with something useful :D

      • Draco T Bastard 8.1.3

        As far as basic necessities of life go, NZ has all the ingredients to provide for it’s population without anyone suffering – most developed countries actually do. The question is whether we choose to organise ourselves economically and socially to do so.

        Although I agree with what you say how you say it is part of the problem. Portraying it as a choice, as you do here, makes people think that we have such a choice between continuing as we are or becoming self-sufficient within renewable limits. It’s not a choice that we have – we must become self-sufficient.

        • Lanthanide 8.1.3.1

          It’s still a choice. Choosing wrongly just has extremely disastrous results.

          • Colonial Viper 8.1.3.1.1

            Well its arguable that western civilisation has been choosing wrongly since the Club of Rome. That’s a hell long time.

            Afewknowthetruth makes good points but at the end of the day appears to have no solutions which will work in a democracy.

            Yell and scream all you like, society is not going to make dramatic changes impacting individual lifestyle until people really get it or are forced to. Think about it. Shower heads were a bridge too far politically for Labour to implement. Try for car-less days, bans on the use of imported consumer products, and restrictions on investing in equity markets and see how long any NZ government lasts.

            The only answers available now exist at the individual and highly localised levels.

            • Lanthanide 8.1.3.1.1.1

              Choosing wrongly has been profitable. So far. It has also broadly improved the living conditions of the majority of the population.

              • Colonial Viper

                No denying that :)

                Well, profitable for the few, onerous for the many, but they don’t matter :)

                • neoleftie

                  in a historical sense, even comparing the last few hundred years, the average worker is far far better off in our time. lets see at a base level most people have a car or access to transport, most if not all have access to a means to improve there lot in life, washing machine, oven, health care etc etc all basic everyday things that everyone in our society has access to and has improved there life. show me anyone even a street person who doesnt have access to a clean running water to bath in…we seem to forget the freedom that we have in our time. We have the freedom to even rant and rage online using the most modern of technology.
                  I even agree with Key – people have opportunity all around them, they have to seize it.
                  Here in this discussion the opportunity should be base arounf the opportunity to engage in the right to vote and learn. grow and engage in what effects there community.

            • Draco T Bastard 8.1.3.1.1.2

              Part of that is because the facts are hidden behind spin and BS. If people had reliable information proving that our present lifestyle cannot be maintained then it’s possible that people would choose better. Unfortunately, the political right always comes out saying that people can have everything they want for nothing.

              • Lanthanide

                The right aren’t the only ones who promise that people can have everything they want. Although I would suggest that the left are forced into doing it or they wouldn’t get elected. Greed, basically.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  We certainly need admission from the politicians of all stripes that we live in a limited world. The Greens seem to get this, Labour I’m not too sure about and National/Act actively deny it. The active denial from the right is what forces the left to cater too the greed as well.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    A lot of Labour Party members know that an exponential path of infinite growth is impossible given the finite resources of a limited physical planet. Whether or not caucus gets it, dunno.

                    • neoleftie

                      i think the labour caucus realises a few things but are ‘locked in’ to certain global pathways that dictate system changes

  9. dave 9

    So how does that change things if the Maori Party were put on the Right and NZF doesnot get 5%…. Because that1ll be more accurate.

    • Colonial Viper 9.1

      Although I can’t see why your scenario – which is certainly one distinct possibility – can be called “more accurate”

  10. Rob 10

    It would be nice if those trends continued. The left has a lot to do though trying to make sure that those issues do not die out in the public’s mind before the election.

  11. Rob Salmond 11

    Marty,

    You said: “Rob Salmond decided to have a go at me over my poll posts the other day… [his] point was that one shouldn’t try to extrapolate from past polling trends because long-term trends don’t exist.”

    That was not my point at all. Long term trends undoubtedly exist. Instead, I said that the shape of long term trends are hard to predict, and are not usually linear for more than a few months. That makes year-long linear projections beyond your data of the type you have been publishing really problematic.

    Marty, much of your writing here on The Standard is very, very good. I just think you are overblowing this analysis a bit.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      Quite true that looking at a small flat part of a larger exponential curve and assuming the rest was linear could easily lead to forecast error.

    • Lanthanide 11.2

      But it’s just a trend. The actual data points can still fluctuate around that trendline just as much as they already have in the past.

      Really what he’s saying, for example, is that the polls between Jan 2009 and Dec 2009 might show that National are at 55% support, +/- 5%. Between July 2011 and Nov 2011 we might predict that the polls will show National are at 45% +/- 5%. The trend is showing that the mid point has gone from 55% to 45%, but the individual polls will still bounce around. I don’t really see anything wrong with that.

      It also doesn’t mean Labour are guaranteed to win: the trend line could predict National at 45% +/- 5% and the left block at 45% +/- 5%, but if on election day we end up with Nats on 50% and left block on 40%, the trend line wasn’t wrong.

      The point, really, is to combat this live very prevalent in the media and the public that “National are so far out in front they won’t lose”, but when you actually examine what has been happening in the polls over time, we can predict that at some point the media will wake up with a surprise and say “hang on, Labour suddenly has a chance”. Except it won’t be a surprise to us at all.

      • neoleftie 11.2.1

        well another point could be that the ‘cant be bothered’, un-decided or switch voter might near election time see national ahead in the polls and come out in support of the left block due to the impacting issues on their individual lives and actual want their vote to count against the Tories.

        NB: I wonder if the Lab Strategy is slowly slowly hush hush, let the Nats hang themselves on public outcry over neo liberal policy formulation and then stick it to the Nats closer to the vote time…cant have the Lab message getting diluted or Tory / MSM negitive spin effecting traction with the voter.

  12. interesting 12

    Roy Morgan Poll Just in today:

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4631/

    • Colonial Viper 12.1

      Didn’t think this would appear until the end of the week!

      LAB down, NZF down, NATs up. Right wing up, Left wing down. Not promising at all. Still doesn’t make sense that Roy Morgan reads a big drop in NZF support when the TVNZ and TV3 polls have him getting a nice blip up.

      LAB numbers remain dead in the water.

      • The Voice of Reason 12.1.1

        The sampling periods may not match, CV. The Roy Morgan is January 31 – February 13th. So the last week’s shenanigans don’t feature in the results.

    • lprent 12.2

      Pretty much statistical jitter numerically.

      The survey period of Jan 31st to Feb 13 means that there wasn’t much interesting stuff in the survey period. Key acting like a prat over food banks was on the 9th. The speech on cutting the front line public services to pay for tax cuts was on the 7th. Even the promise by National to privatize everything to pay for tax cuts was only a few days before the survey period on the Wednesday prior to the survey period and won’t be reflected strongly in the poll*. Everything prior to that was just holidays.

      Yawn and wait for the next one at the end of the month. But I bet that the movement within the statistical variation is going to be screamed up by the hysterics like DPF# and some of the other numerical idiots in the MSM….

      * You usually find that political reactions amongst voters happen no earlier than a fortnight after the event..
      # How he can run a statistically based business is beyond me. Hopefully he does employ someone who isn’t as numerically challenged as he is.

  13. interesting 13

    CV,

    Is it more that the ROy Morgan had NZF artificially high in its previous poll and this is just a rebalancing?

    It seems all three polls have Nats and Labs, and Greens at simmilar numbers.

    The other ones, UNF, ACT, MP seem to all be different in each poll.

    • lprent 13.1

      If you look at the bottom on the page where is has the section “Margin of Error” it gives you the variations you can expect (in a really annoying format).

      The total sample size was 924 so you’d expect that the sample sizes for each major party would be somewhere around 300-450 and those for the minor parties would be only tens of respondents. The margins of error in percentage terms for the main parties wind up as being pretty high (essentially anything below +/- 3% is probably statistical blipping unless it carries over several polls) and those of the minor parties are really jumpy for any single poll.

      The Morgan poll is the best available simply because it is taken about every 2 weeks and allows a series to be looked at for trend. You can’t rely on the absolute percentage figures because they relate to the sampling technique as much as anything else (like the basic flaw that they are land-line polls which over-samples conservatives). The biggest flaw in the Morgan polls is that they don’t have the would not say and undecided in them – which makes a lot of the pontificating on this poll this far out from the election somewhat moot.

      Really they’re useful for indicators of trend.

      • wtl 13.1.1

        In the above link: “Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 2.5%) did not name a party.”

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.2

        The biggest flaw in the Morgan polls is that they don’t have the would not say and undecided in them – which makes a lot of the pontificating on this poll this far out from the election somewhat moot.

        They must have that data, so I wonder why they don’t publish it?

        • lprent 13.1.2.1

          I have never found a good explanation for that. It would certainly make the polls more useful. So would giving some details about the demographic mangling they do. When I’m analyzing canvassing both of those factors are the most interesting. As are the distinct differences between the landline populations and those we have to door knock.

          • neoleftie 13.1.2.1.1

            here an insight i have experienced in my local labour organisation. No leaflets drops to the poorest area in years, no leaflet drops to affluent area even though half the household decider in those liberal household were women. Low telephone polling of poor cause they cannot afford a telephone or worked odd hours. Low engagement with the electorate to generate meaningful dialogue at the grass root level…no wonder the neo-libs are stronger as there whole way of life is expressed in connectiveness.

            • lprent 13.1.2.1.1.1

              Yeah, some of the organizations are a bit pathetic. Especially in capturing the data that they gain and holding it between elections. Or retaining a coherent block system. As well as using it for phamplets we also use it to target areas that we don’t get good phones for door knocking. Means that when we come to campaigning we can use our scarce volunteers as effectively as possible for turning voters out, and we know our electorate.

              I have done most of my electorate work in Mt Albert where I grew up and it is somewhat different.

              Helen was great t doing the community stuff as well. So is David.

              • neoleftie

                unfortunately whilst amazingly generous and caring people and from the deepest red and strongest labour electorates in the country and even the most organised, in the real world the whole structure is lacking…

    • The Voice of Reason 13.2

      For Winston, it reflects that he hasn’t been in the news much this month, therefore NZF drops back to its default position of 2.5%. One interesting fact about the left vote is that Labour has stayed above 30% for 8 months and the Greens have stayed at or above their election night result since 2008. Between them, they have only dipped below a combined 40% a couple of times. There is an stability there that can be built on.

      National, on the other hand, have clearly picked up ACT’s points. Rodney could be a very lonely boy even if the Nats gift him Epsom. Dunne may be a goner as well, but not because of this poll. He’s too small to really feature in the RM, but to win his seat this time round, he’ll probably need a nod and a wink from National too.

      • Colonial Viper 13.2.1

        Labour has got to depose Dunne. He has been hanging around for far too long. With him and Douglas both history, Parliament will be a greatly improved environment.

        • neoleftie 13.2.1.1

          the most amusing times at parliament was witnessing ‘king’ winnie showboat to the gallery. bring back winnie only to cut 2-3% off national

  14. Jan 14

    And in Gisborne the turning of the tide is already complete/
    anti-spam fortune ;)
    http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=21402

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      Go the NAT supporter who said we “can’t afford socialism” – but we can obviously afford tax cuts for the wealthy. Loser!

      • neoleftie 14.1.1

        tinkering with tax rate – yes but tax cuts – havent seen any theory and supporting proven data that suggest tax cuts during a recession leads to a positive outcome.

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    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour will drop power prices for Kiwi families
    New Zealanders will get cheaper power prices under NZ Power, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “The electricity market is clearly broken. With falling demand for electricity, prices should be going down. Instead prices are going up and companies are extracting...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour: Promoting sustainable tourism
    Ensuring New Zealand’s clean, green status continues to be an international tourism benchmark and reviewing MBIE’s oversight of the tourism sector will be on the radar under a Labour Government. Releasing Labour’s Tourism policy today, spokesperson Darien Fenton said tourism...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Skills shortage a result of National’s complacency
    The fact that there is still a severe shortage of skilled tradespeople, despite a growth in the number of apprentices, is a result of National’s failure to plan and develop the workforce, Grant Robertson, Labour Employment, Skills and TrainingSpokesperson says."The...
    Labour | 26-08
  • How much tax does John Key pay compared to a minimum wage worker?? – Mint...
    MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is calling for a radical overhaul of New Zealand’s taxation system with calculations showing that a minimum wage worker pays a ten times higher tax rate than the Prime Minister. o Minimum wage...
    Mana | 25-08
  • Labour’s culture of science and innovation
    Labour will create a culture of science and innovation in New Zealand that will be the envy of the world, says Labour’s Innovation, Research and Development spokesperson Megan Woods. “Labour believes that good science lies at the heart of a...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Improving life for our new New Zealanders
    New Zealand’s international standing as a community that encourages and fosters all cultures will be bolstered under a Labour Government with an upgrade of the present Office of Ethnic Affairs to a Ministry. Releasing Labour’s Ethnic Affairs policy, spokesperson Phil...
    Labour | 25-08
  • South Auckland housing crisis
    National’s HomeStart package is nothing more than a political stunt designed to beguile South Auckland voters, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio. “Few working Pasifika and Maori workers in South Auckland will be able to buy their own...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Home buyer subsidy discredited in Oz
    Treasury advised against National’s policy of ramping up home buyer subsidies after it was discredited in Australia because it pushed house prices even higher, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Documents released under the OIA (attached) show Treasury advised the...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Nursing hours explain turnover and high-stress culture
    A staff survey supports concerns nursing staff at Dunedin Hospital are under increasing pressure and that the emergency department is in a critical state, says Labour’s Associate Health Spokesperson David Clark.  “An ED nursing survey at Dunedin found that 80...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Underhand tactics prove case for axing donations
    Revelations that schools are using underhand tactics to coerce donations from cash-strapped parents further highlights the need for Labour's plan to increase funding so they aren't dependent on contributions from parents, Labour's Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “By law New...
    Labour | 24-08
  • National applies band-aid to housing crisis
    The Government’s flagship housing announcement is a band-aid approach that will push up prices rather than solve the housing crisis, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “House sales to first home buyers have collapsed as a direct result of the Government’s...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Climate change focus on the now for the future
    A Labour Governmentwill put in place a comprehensive climate change strategy focusing on bothmitigation and adaptation, establish an independent Climate Commission andimplement carbon budgeting, says Labour Climate Change spokesperson MoanaMackey."This is about future-proofing our economy. Making the transition to alow-carbon...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Labour’s 21st century transport pledge
    The next Labour-led Government will create a 21st century transport system for New Zealand that promotes the most efficient and sustainable combination of transport options, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour will rebalance the Government's transport spending away from...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Housing under National: the facts
    1.       House prices in Auckland Council valuations indicate Auckland house prices have gone up by one-third over the last three years. (Auckland Council) The average Auckland house price has gone up by nearly $225,000 since 2008, up over $75,000 in...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Labour irons out low income tax issue
    The increasing casualisation of work has led to many New Zealand families being disadvantaged through the tax they pay, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. "Many low paid workers are having to work two or three jobs to make ends meet...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Cornered Government comes out swinging
    The National Government is so desperate to keep its dead-in-the-water expert teachers policy alive, it has refused to rule out forcing schools to participate through legislation, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “John Key today attacked the Educational Institute for...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Pacific people continue to go backwards under National
    A report from Victoria University highlights the fact that Pacific people are continuing to go backwards under a National Government, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “The report shows the largest inequality increases were in smoking, obesity, tertiary...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Wellington transport plan needs to keep moving
    The failure of the Transport Agency to properly look at alternatives to the Basin Reserve flyover is not a good reason for further delays to improving transport in Wellington, Labour MPs Grant Robertson and Annette King say. “The Board of...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Labour’s focus on inequality, kids and better job prospects
    Tackling child poverty and removing barriers to people working part time to enhance their prospects of moving into a fulltime job are highlights of Labour’s Social Development policy. Releasing the policy today, spokesperson Sue Moroney said while part-time work was...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Political staff should give answers under oath
    The Inspector General of Security and Intelligence should use her full statutory powers to question witnesses under oath about the leak of SIS information, says Labour MP Phil Goff. “Leakage of confidential information from the SIS for political purposes is...
    Labour | 21-08
  • High dollar, hands-off Govt sends workers to dole queue
    The loss of up to 100 jobs at Croxley stationery in Auckland is devastating news for their families and the local Avondale community, Labour’s Employment, Skills and Training spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The company’s inability to compete in international markets...
    Labour | 21-08
  • National’s flagship education policy dead in the water
    National’s plan to create executive principals and expert teachers is effectively dead in the water with news that 93 percent of primary teachers have no confidence in the scheme, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The fact that teachers are...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Dunedin will be a knowledge and innovation centre under Labour
    Dunedin will become a knowledge and innovation centre under a Labour Government that will back local businesses, support technology initiatives and fund dynamic regional projects, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Nowhere has the National Government’s short-sightedness been more apparently than...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Want to lift voter participation? #futurevoter selfie this election with yo...
    As the importance of democratic engagement starts making its presence felt in the wake of the lowest voter turn out in a century, it’s time to make universal suffrage a goal again. One step towards that is nurturing the future...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • A brief word on hacked celebrity naked pictures
    Of  all the inane bullshit I’ve heard in my life, the one currently saying ‘if you take naked pictures of yourself you should expect them to be seen by everyone’ is possibly the dumbest. Deleted intimate images people take in the...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • The Daily Blog 2014 progressive voter guide – who to vote for to change ...
    If you want to know how to vote in a way to change this Government,  here is the electorate by electorate guide on how to strategically vote to kick National out of office. There are two votes. Electorate vote and Party...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Are Cameron Slater and Judiith Collins bare-faced liars?
    . . Are Cameron Slater and Judith Collins both bare-faced liars? Both of them. Liars? Here is why I ask… In the latest revelations, information disclosed by Rawshark/Whaledump to the NZ Herald alleges in further leaked sensitive information from  ...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • What has surprised me most about the Ashburton WINZ shootings
    The terrible deaths at a WINZ office in Ashburton took us all by surprise. Staunch poverty campaigner Sue Bradford commented before the deaths were known and was attacked by waves of twitterarti who knew best. Sue apologised but her wider...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kiri Hannifin  – Make domestic violence an election issue
    Violence against women and children continues to be a profound issue in this country.  Despite the stellar efforts of thousands of grass roots workers to support victims of violence every day, we cannot seem to stem the tide. The past...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Factchecking Key’s Leaders debate claims
    There were so many questionable facts Key threw at Cunliffe in last nights debate that I emailed a few contacts to ask if they were true. Here is the very long list of things Key said that simply were not...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • August Blog stats – TDB closing in on Kiwiblog – our final election con...
    The August blog stats are in, and The Daily Blog retains our position as the largest left wing blog in NZ with 416 374 visits last month and 667 411. Kiwi Blog who has been operating for a decade with...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – New Zealand First: Coalition of the Willing...
    There is, right now, an absolute metric truck-tonne of misinformation, lies, and willful distortion flying about on social media, in the blogosphere and even in the media and corridors of power about New Zealand First’s coalition position. Some of this...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Judith Collins i...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • The Press Leaders Debate – proof a newspaper can kill the internet
    No more beersies for you Mr Key. Seriously – was the Prime Minister drunk during this debate? I am so sickened by what passed as a Leaders debate, I will make this review short and vicious. Everyone involved in putting...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Voting starts tomorrow!
    On the telly, in the papers, on the Net, billboards on almost every street corner – it’s hard to miss the fact that there’s an election coming up. Everyone’s trying to win your vote on Election Day, September 20, (this...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Collins inquiry a whitewash before it has even started
    The farce whitewash that Key is trying to push through here for the inquiry into Judith Collins role in a hit on the SFO should enrage any NZer, regardless of how they vote. Whaleoil won’t be forced to appear, it’s...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Press Leaders Debate – Round 2 – 7pm tonight
    This debate is live in a Town Hall, Key has done well at these in the past, but since the hate politics exposed in Dirty Politics, expect real fury directed at Key. My guess is that Key will attempt to use whatever he...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • MANA hit speed wobbles – why Annette Sykes will win Waiariki
    MANA are my favourites. But of late, their transition from crawling to sprinting has hit some speed wobbles. Hone’s and Pam’s aggressive attitude towards the media recently is very understandable in light of how connected many of the media were to...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • Soz Cam – PaknSave boycott of whaleoil continues – time to start a boyc...
    Cam is so carcinogenic now, not even his mates in the Tobacco Industry are talking to him any longer. I suspect only the Israeli Defence Force propaganda department are paying for content on whaleoil now. Cam says that PaknSave have dropped their problems...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • The Rock Fuels NZ Roastbuster Rape Culture
    This is making me feel pretty uncomfortable. Here we have an instance of Jono and Ben posing like “exposed celebrities”. But do you know what I’m seeing? I’m seeing two dudes who basically “roasted” a woman online (exposed pictures of...
    The Daily Blog | 02-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – Why beneficiaries need advocacy
    There are times when I am wrong. I was wrong recently when someone suggested to me that AAAP should be eligible for government funding to continues its advocacy work. That was before. Before dealing with advocacy on a weekly basis...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • TheDailyBlog September Political Poll Has Been Kicked Off
    The Daily Blog’s August poll has concluded and the September poll has been kicked off, asking readers: What party will you likely vote for at this year’s General Election? You will see this month’s poll in the right-hand sidebar of...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Jamie Whyte, leave that poor seal alone!
    Worse than showing mere lip service to Rainbow inclusion, ACT leader Jamie Whyte showed stunning arrogance when appeared at a candidates debate on rainbow issues hosted by the Auckland University Students’ Association last Thursday. The stunning hypocrisy was evident as...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Right wing can’t help but use scum
    Some people have been shocked that the traditional right wing party in New Zealand politics is so deeply embedded with scum like the blogger Whale Oil. We need not be so surprised. It takes a certain type to support the...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • EXCLUSIVE: National’s Ohariu candidate admits contact by Simon Lusk
    . . Wellington, NZ, 31  August – At a meet-the-candidates public meeting in the Rongotai Electorate, National’s Ohariu candidate, Brett Hudson, confirmed that he had been approached by “a mate”, who passed on a message from  National Party operative, Simon...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014
    Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Petition for Governor General of New Zealand to Investigate all the allegat...
      Now we see the inquiry will be a whitewash, that is secret, won’t be consulted with the Opposition, will have limited scope and will ignore Nicky Hager’s book, we must demand the Governor General step in and demand an...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Ashburton, 1 September 2014
    I NEVER WENT BACK to Aramoana after the killing. I had been a frequent visitor to the tiny seaside village back in the late 1970s and throughout the 80s. Its tall cliffs and broad beaches providing a colourful backdrop to...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Checkmate in 1 move – how could Slater have known what was in OIA request...
    And now we get down to the final few moves before checkmate. If the following investigation is right, how could Slater and Collins have known what was in the Secret Intelligence Service Official Information Act request that hadn’t been released...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • The Edge Posts Naked Photos Of Jennifer Lawrence Without Consent
    Today the Edge website – owned by Media Works – published fully naked photographs of Jennifer Lawrence without her consent. It is not OK to publish naked media of any woman without her consent, full stop. It is absolutely disgusting...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Bomber, Laila and Maggie – a highlight from Auckland Broadcasting Debate ...
    Bomber, Laila and Maggie – a highlight from Auckland Broadcasting Debate 2014...
    The Daily Blog | 01-09
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, how good was I i...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Maggie Barry slags Laila Harre & blogger, audience erupt
    The Coalition for Better Broadcasting held their public meeting in Auckland last night and it became a fiery shouting match when Maggie Barry decided to slag Laila Harre and me off. 250 people packed into the Pioneer Hall off High...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • It has to be a full independent public inquiry and Key MUST front
      You know things are bad when images like this start appearing in the media.  It isn’t a ‘left wing conspiracy’ to point out the over whelming evidence of what is clearly a right wing conspiracy! If it looks like a conspiracy, sounds like a conspiracy...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Political Party social media stats – National playing Dirty Politics on s...
    Interesting data from friend of the blog, Marty Stewart, on social media likes and it shows an interesting question that post Dirty Politics should probably get asked…   …it’s interesting that Key has so many personal followers.  One wonders if...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • The depth of the National rot and the compliance of our news media
    I’m so tired. Aren’t you? I don’t want to read the news anymore. It’s awful and I feel ashamed of it. We live in a country that people all over the world would give an arm, a leg; their life...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Conservative Party candidate links smacking ban with suicide, sexually tran...
    If Chemtrails, faked moon landings and climate change denial weren’t enough, welcome to your new Minister for Spanking,  Edward Saafi... The anti-smacking law is to blame for youth suicide, youth prostitution and even sexually-transmitted infections, a leading Conservative party candidate...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word on the canonisation of Matthew Hooton
    Before we all start the canonisation of Matthew Hooton, let’s consider some home truths here shall we? While the Wellington Ruminator Blog, the blog who was previously mates with Judith Collins, now seems to have a crush on Matthew Hooton… …I...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word on undercover cops in bars
    Dunedin police booze operation labelled ‘creepy’ Undercover police officers drank in Dunedin bars as part of an operation targeting liquor licensing offences. While police said the inaugural operation was a success — with most bars found compliant — the Hospitality...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Judith Collins press conference
    Judith Collins press conference...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Angry Lawyer – Collins, Odgers, Williams and legal ethics
    We deserve better lawyers than Judith Collins Three of the worst offenders exposed in Dirty Politics are lawyers: Judith Collins, Cathy Odgers, and Jordan Williams. What Nicky Hager exposed them doing would be out of line for anyone, but from...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Necessary Defence
    Increasingly climate change is becoming the main fracture line between political parties. Where political parties stand on climate change defines political parties and movements like no other issue. The Mana Movement like the Maori Party it sprang from, came out...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Why it is all over for John Key
    Image: Melanie D I’ve been confident that National will lose this election and that our focus should be on what a progressive Government needs to establish as its agenda in the first 100 days. Past that point, the establishment pushes back...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • A brief word to everyone who voted National in 2011
    I received this interesting email from a National Party supporter today… …let me say this to anyone who voted National last election – you should be ashamed by what has been revealed and what your vote ended up enabling but...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • EXCLUSIVE: Déjà Vu All Over Again: John Ansell confirms his participation...
      THE MAN BEHIND the Iwi-Kiwi billboards that very nearly won the 2005 election for Don Brash and the National Party has confirmed his involvement in businessman John Third’s and former Act MP Owen Jennings’ campaign to drive down the...
    The Daily Blog | 31-08
  • Public Broadcasting Auckland debate 6.30pm tonight now with Colin Craig &am...
    The Coalition for Better Broadcasting debate on public broadcasting happens tonight at 6.30pm in Auckland at the Pioneer Women’s Hall, High Street, Auckland City.  In the light of Dirty Politics and the manipulation of the media, public broadcasting is more important for...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Winners & Losers in Collins sacking plus what’s the latest on Slater...
      Make no mistake, there was no way this was a resignation, it’s a face saving way out for Collins, she was sacked.  My understanding is that National internal polls are haemorrhaging and that the powers that be within National...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Third party propaganda attacks incoming Labour-led government
    . . Further to a report by Daily Blogger, Chris Trotter, on receiving information regarding planned attack-billboards, the following billboard is highly visible to traffic on the southbound lane of the Wellington motorway, just prior to the Murphy St turn-off....
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Labour wins the Internet
    I’m sure I’m not the only one who tried to vote online for the leaders debate and couldn’t because the website was down. The next option was the txt vote, 75c a pop of course. So I’m not surprised that...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – Rotherham and the need to challenge willful bl...
    I haven’t been following the events in Rotterham too closely.  I’ve read about the basic issues and the culture of silence that stopped action been taken even after complaints were made.  That culture of silence is incredibly familiar, and described...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Review: Hairspray
      Oh Hairspray! What fun! Somehow I managed to miss the movie when it came out, I had no idea really what it was about though I felt it had a vague relation to High School Musical. In retrospect, that...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Mounting global pressure against Timor-Leste’s ‘death sentence’ media...
    East Timor’s José Belo … courageous fight against ‘unconstitutional’ media law.Image: © Ted McDonnell 2014 CAFÉ PACIFIC and the Pacific Media Centre Online posted challenges to the controversial ‘press law’ nine months ago when it emerged how dangerous this draft...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Spies, Lies and When Campaigns Are Fried
    Like most of the rest of the nation’s political classes, I was eagerly affixed to TV One from 12:30 on Saturday afternoon to witness the downfall of Judith Collins.Whenever we witness the crumbling of a titan of the political landscape...
    The Daily Blog | 30-08
  • Key Rises in Latest Poll Despite Problems
    John Key's personal popularity appears to have weathered the worst of the Dirty Politics storm, according to tonight's 3News-Reid Research poll....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Forestry safety must be taken seriously
    News that Police have arrested and charged a man with manslaughter over the death of 20-year old Lincoln Kidd shows that forestry safety must be taken seriously, according to FIRST Union. “Lincoln’s tragic death was one of ten lives claimed...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Musicians support artistic freedom
    Wellington musicians are banding together to support artistic freedom and will perform at Cuba Street venue San Fran on Sunday afternoon 14 September. This concert, Off Key, protests the New Zealand Electoral Commission’s view that satirical song and...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • BRANZ welcomes announcement of Science Challenge 11
    BRANZ today welcomes the announcement of the National Science Challenge on better homes, towns and cities by Hon Dr Nick Smith at the Building a Better New Zealand conference. The new National Science Challenge will provide a new approach to...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Roy Morgan Poll September 3
    National (45%) down after ‘Dirty Politics’ revelations, but Labour (26%) also loses support while Greens surge to 16% – highest since April 2012. Conservative Party at record high 3.5% Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a sharp decline...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Labour’s CGT Will Make Housing Affordability Worse
    Labour's capital gains tax, won't do what David Cunliffe says it will, according to the Taxpayers' Union , backed up by a former Deputy Commissioner of Inland Revenue, Robin Oliver....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Young Kiwis follow in Sir Peter’s footsteps
    Six high-achieving young New Zealanders have been chosen for a range of amazing expeditions this summer, including two that will travel to Antarctica, as part of the Sir Peter Blake Trust Blake Ambassador programme....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • New Doco on Māori Television Examines Social Housing
    A new documentary to air on Māori Television in the lead-up to the election will address the reality of low income housing in this country in a climate of state gentrification and privatisation. WHARE TAPA WHĀ , (loosely translated as...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Thames WINZ arrest should serve as warning to others
    Waikato Police say the charging of a man following an incident in the Thames Work and Income office today should serve as a warning to others that unacceptable behaviour cannot, and will not be tolerated....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Secretary-General’s lecture at the University of Auckland
    I again thank this University of Auckland for bestowing on me an honourary degree in recognition of the enduring value of the United Nations....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • New Zealand First is just too expensive
    “The independent Taxpayers Union now estimates that Winston Peters has made more spending promises than Labour and the Greens combined”, said Dr Whyte, ACT’s Leader....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Adequate family incomes essential to reduce child poverty
    Child Poverty Action Group says making sure families have enough money to care for their children is a fundamental part of the solution to child poverty....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Doesn’t Your Dad Goat Enough?
    A challenge that most Kiwis can relate to in the weeks leading up to father’s day: How do we honour the great men in our life in a meaningful way?...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • At the end of their tether!
    Many in New Zealand will have seen the sight of a lone goat chained on a roadside verge on their travels . Given the job of "lawnmower" these gregarious, highly social, intelligent animals endure a miserable existence denied their most...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • NZratifies new treaty to control the $85bn global arms trade
    New Zealand ratifies new treaty to control the $85bn global arms trade for the first time ever...
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Threats against Work and Income staff a disgrace
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says the continuing threats against Work and Income staff in the wake of the Ashburton shootings are a disgrace, and must end....
    Scoop politics | 03-09
  • Greens will put tens of thousands out of work
    "The $18 minimum wage championed by the Greens will throw tens of thousands of low skilled New Zealanders out of a job and condemn them to a life on the benefit. At no point do the Greens discuss the employment...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • PGA: Welcomes NZ’s ratification of Arms Trade Treaty
    President of Parliamentarians for Global Action and New Zealand MP Ross Robertson today welcomed the news that the New Zealand Government has ratified the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) at the United Nations in New York....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Forest & Bird releases top priorities for new government
    Independent conservation organisation Forest & Bird is calling for all political parties to adopt policies to bring about an economic transformation - for the sake of New Zealand and New Zealanders. The call comes as part of Forest & Bird’s...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • More good Questions for Mr. Cunliffe
    Exempting the family home from Capital Gains taxes is harder than it sounds. What if you charge one of the children board? What if it is one of the children’s friends? A boarder? Many South Auckland families share a house....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Why are the Anglican Bishops silent in defending life?
    The Anglican Archbishops in Aotearoa New Zealand have identified four key challenges facing the country in the run-up to the General Election onSeptember 20. These issues are: • Child poverty • Income inequality • Lack of affordable and accessible...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Encouraging the phenomenal growth in the Māori economy
    As the only independent Māori voice in Parliament, the Māori Party’s economic development policy is unashamedly focused on growing the Māori economy....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Bottom line demands by minor parties destabilising
    "Bottom line demands by minor parties are destabilising and undemocratic" said Dr Jamie Whyte. "Colin Craig says referenda being binding is a bottom line and now Winston Peters says a Royal Commission is a bottom line. Polls say the vast...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Victoria students lead youth engagement publication
    A group of Victoria University students are trying to reverse the trend of political disengagement by giving young people a voice....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • NZEI Te Riu Roa welcomes Green Party commitment to fairness
    NZEI Te Riu Roa has welcomed the Green Party's commitment to making work fairer and more equitable, saying it would also result in tangible benefits for children and their learning....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • MANA Movement says tax cut on GST must be first priority
    “If Prime Minister John Key has money available for tax cuts then cutting GST must be the first priority”, said MANA Movement Economic Justice Spokesperson John Minto. “GST is a nasty tax on low-income families”, said Minto. “People in...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • The Maori Party’s Mana-Enhancing Relationship with National
    MANA Movement candidate, John Minto 3 Wednesday September 2014 “First we had Cameron Slater and David Farrar backing Labour’s Kelvin Davis bid to unseat MANA Movement Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira. Now we have Slater writing...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Craig And Mcvicar Have Some Explaining to Do
    The Taxpayers’ Union is calling on Garth McVicar and the Conservative Party to explain how much the Party’s ‘tough on crime’ election slogan will cost. On Monday the Party was added to the Taxpayers’ Union Bribe-O-Meter , but the Conservative...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Political parties to be questioned on needs of children
    Political party representatives will be asked to outline their policies in three key areas relating to the needs of children at a public forum being hosted this Friday by the University of Otago, Wellington (UOW). The event has been co-organised...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Voting Period for 2014 General Election Begins Today
    The first votes for the 2014 general election will be cast today, Wednesday 3 September, as advance voting begins ahead of election day on Saturday 20 September. “Election day is September 20, but if you want, you can vote from...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Independent Epsom Candidates ‘One Strike’ Crime Policy
    Best wishes to all of those who live in Epsom, Mount Eden, New Market, Remuera and of course the rest of New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Large majorities of NZ First voters would prefer Labour deal
    67% of those who voted for New Zealand First at the 2011 general election would prefer Labour to lead a coalition government if one is needed after September 20’s general election....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Jointly owned urban development agency for Christchurch
    “Given the strategic importance of the Canterbury rebuild, it is logical that the transition from emergency governance arrangements is overseen by the Prime Minister’s office, but to maintain momentum in the city centre an expert development agency...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Collins inquiry at best a Band-Aid, a permanent fix needed
    Collins inquiry at best a Band-Aid, a permanent fix is needed The Public Service Association (PSA) says the inquiry into Judith Collins’ behaviour must be accompanied by a process to restore the lost trust between Ministers and public servants if...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Association welcomes new Chief Executive
    “The New Zealand Police Association is pleased to announce the appointment of Heather Verry to Chief Executive. Heather picks up the mantle from Chris Pentecost, who recently retired from this position,” Police Association President Greg O’Connor said...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Young Voters Want Politicians to Grow Up
    Young voters want answers to the questions that directly affect them – but it seems as much as anything, they want politicians to grow up....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Climate Voter election debate to get big audience
    Auckland, 2 September 2014 - Tickets to tomorrow night’s first-ever Climate Voter election debate have sold out but an online audience will also get to see the event live....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • The Edge show disregard for consent
    The Edge has shown complete disregard for consent, for women’s bodies and in doing so has contributed to the wider issue of rape culture in New Zealand says specialist sexual violence prevention organisation, Sexual Abuse Prevention Network. Yesterday,...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • The Rock is Fuelling New Zealand’s Roastbuster Rape Culture
    The Rock are still displaying without-consent images of Jennifer Lawrence and other celebrities online. They are making fun of this without-consent action, saying that she was "asking for it", etc. They appear to be supporting this kind of...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • HRLA Condemns Murder of Filipino Human Rights lawyer
    Attorney Rodolfo R. Felicio, a member of the National Union of Peoples Lawyers , was gunned down while working on a land dispute in Rizal, east of Manila. Two caretakers of the disputed land were also injured in the attack....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • SFO lays charges for procurement fraud
    Two individuals have been charged in the Auckland District Court today with Crimes Act charges laid by the Serious Fraud Office for alleged fraud against Mighty River Power Limited relating to procurement for the Company’s Southdown power station....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Commitment to lifting wages good for New Zealand
    The Service and Food Workers Union has applauded the Green Party workers’ policy announced today....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Sykes: There’s Only One Poll That Counts
    “One of the oldest sayings in politics is that there is only one poll that counts – the one on Election Day – and that’s the one that I am focusing on” remarked the MANA Movement candidate for Waiariki, Annette...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Winston Peters Shown up by the Civilian Party
    Even the satirical 'Civilian Party' has now offered the Taxpayers’ Union more credible figures for the ' Bribe-O-Meter ' than Winston Peters’ New Zealand First. The Taxpayers’ Union Bribe-O-Meter now includes, National, Labour, the Greens,...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Further criminal investigation into CTV Building collapse
    Police has today confirmed it will be advancing the criminal investigation into the collapse of the CTV building in February 2011....
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Greens policy to restore link between effort and reward
    The Green Party’s new workers policy articulates an alternative to wage repression and job insecurity based on restoring the link between effort and reward, according to FIRST Union. The core tenets of the policy include implementing an $18 minimum...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Greens workers policy supported by union movement
    The CTU is supporting the Green Party’s policy launched today focused on improving life for working New Zealanders. “This policy shows the Greens commitment to collective bargaining as the best and fairest way to improve workers terms and conditions. It...
    Scoop politics | 02-09
  • Research Scholarships for Cannabis Treatments
    Medical cannabis research will be boosted by $140 million if the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party is elected on September 20. Pediatric epilepsy treatment will be one of the main priorities for the research scholarships....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Ngai Te Rangi Change to Tribal Elections
    Ngai Te Rangi has begun a postal vote of beneficiaries to change the way representatives are elected to the two Ngai Te Rangi tribal organisations....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
  • Greens’ commitment to pay equity welcomed by workers
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says the 58,000 workers they represent will benefit from the announcement by the Green Party of a commitment to pay equity and to a living wage for core public servants and contractors....
    Scoop politics | 01-09
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