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Trends

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, May 29th, 2013 - 175 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags:

So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.

polls vs pre-election polls

Hmm. So, National – which won a one seat majority for the Right in 2011 has lost support since the election in every poll.

Also, with a single exception (Roy Morgan in 2008) every pre-election poll has overpolled National in the past two elections. When you correct for that, you get a surprisingly tight spread between the polls. The raw results have a 5% spread, the corrected ones just a 2.2% spread, centred around 45%.

Halfway through their second (and, if you believe Lusk/Slater last) Key’s National have lost an average of 3.4% in the polls.

45% is the danger zone for National. In this position, they might govern if they can cut a deal with Winston (if he gets back in). If they continue to lose support and end up in the low 40s, then even that won’t save them.

Of course, it’s far from a done deal. Shearer is the, um, the key. If the Left is to govern, people have to see him as a PM. He’s got better in recent months. Here’s hoping he gets a lot better in the next 18.

Bonus for poll-lovers. Everyone knows that only the Roy Morgan is regular enough to talk about trends (RM is also the most accurate on average in its pre-election polls). Here’s how that trend is looking:

roy morgans to May 2013

175 comments on “Trends”

  1. DrakeNZ 1

    I’m not sure if you can compare a pre-election poll (when attention is focused fully on party policies and their leaders) to a mid-way poll. Just wait until John Key goes on TV and debates head to head with Shearer.
    PS – when is the next roy morgan out – tomorrow?

    • bad12 1.1

      Tell me something, after Phill Goff got so comprehensively dealt to by Slippery John Key in the 2011 television debates, (according to the pundits and the idiots that think someone yelling repeatedly ”show me the money” is a comprehensive victory that is), how many % points did National leap up in the following polls,

      Zilch actually, nada, zero, none, most of the polling was of a National Government not needing coalition partners, so if we are to take anything from the polls vis a vis the television debates in 2011 we can only conclude that had the election campaign not been of an abbreviated nature National would surely have been in the position of actually ‘needing’ the Maori Party to govern as opposed to having that particular party as mere lap-dogs consigning themselves to electoral oblivion for the baubles of Ministerial office,

      Given that at November 2014 the Maori Party are to be given an unkind message from the electorate i would dare suggest that 2014 will be an election of a % point either way and National gaining a third term will rely on NZFirst regaining seats in the Parliament and being willing to support a third term National Government, (neither of those propositions being guaranteed),

      Labour/Green need only go into the 2014 election showing a clear intention to restructure the minimum wage into the guaranteed living wage in it’s first term of Government, (a rise of $1.50 an hour over a 3 year period), and the rout of National back to the opposition benches where they belong should be a given…

      • mickysavage 1.1.1

        I would disagree with you about the debates Bad12. Apart from the theatrics surrounding the “show me the money” I thought Goff performed very well in the debates.

        The failure in the campaign was in part the failure to back Goff up. He did not appear on the billboards and the message given by this was that even the party did not think he was going to succeed.

        Of course those who made this decision should have been the subject of a rigorous review but this did not happen.

        • bad12 1.1.1.1

          Have a closer read micky and you will find that you are not disagreeing with me at all….

          • mickysavage 1.1.1.1.1

            Yep right you are.

            You may also be right about the super policy. It was a hell of a stretch of a policy and there is a virtue in these times of unemployment in letting the elderly retire a bit earlier so that a young person can then get a job.

            It is frustrating that labour is trying to have decisions made today about something that will only become important in a decade’s time. National’s approach of not giving a toss gives them a political advantage.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.1.1.1

              An extra couple of % of top tax rate and corporate tax would allow the super age to be lowered, in addition to funnelling all KiwiSaver funds into the Cullen Fund.

              For some reason that sounds more like a “Labour Party” stance to me, than trying to make older people work longer and staying in jobs that young people would be better off doing.

              • TheContrarian

                “An extra couple of % of top tax rate”

                I’m on the top rate and paying a few % more would be fine by me.

                • Lanthanide

                  I’d like to see it at 35% @ $80k an a higher rate introduced around $120-150k, like Australia.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Hey guys your comments mean a lot as I know that you will be personally affected by these suggestions.

                    And potentially a higher rate again at 10x the median working income, so at $410,000 pa. or thereabouts.

                    Alternatively, you have a generous tax free protion of your income, and then get taxed more heavily above that at a flat rate, to prevent people gaming the system with their accountants.

                • north

                  Contrary One. Good man/woman !

        • bad12 1.1.1.2

          My view on what cost Labour in 2011 was having Phill Goff open the election campaign promising to raise the age of eligibility for NZ Super, convincing the electorate of such a necessity would best be left in my opinion to a third term Government after a very long conversation with the electorate…

        • DrakeNZ 1.1.1.3

          I agree – Phil Goff is a seasoned debater and generally performed well against Key. He only stumbled in the initial debate which (I think) was not fully televised and there was time for damage control. I think Shearer vs Key might be an entirely different story.

        • TheContrarian 1.1.1.4

          “He did not appear on the billboards and the message given by this was that even the party did not think he was going to succeed.”

          I agree – it also made it about personalities when Labour were desperately trying to not make it about personalities given Key was so high in preferred PM.

      • futurama 1.1.2

        It would appear that if you want to be the govt have the party 100% behind the leader because it doesnt seem to matter how many lies you tell after the election you still got 3yrs to sell some more and the polls seem to reflect that so basically the system hasnt got much integrity

  2. Of course, it’s far from a done deal. Shearer is the, um, the key. If the Left is to govern, people have to see him as a PM. He’s got better in recent months. Here’s hoping he gets a lot better in the next 18.

    I think people get too worried over leader popularity polls. Shearer has another year to become more of a leader figure, and the most popular leader doesn’t determine who wins an election (NZ isn’t a Presidential system -even though the MSM want it to be). A much more likely scenario is that Mana, the Greens, NZ First, and I have to say it (since Peter Dunne is a political survivor) United Future will make up the extra seats; while the Labour party will a slight lead or National will have a slight lead.

    • bad12 2.1

      Aha, given the anti-Labour stance of the Maori Party and for a moment putting aside the fact that they hold 3 electoral seats Phill Goff who nobody really wanted to be the Prime Minister came within a whisker of beating the most popular, (spit), Prime Minister for many years…

      • kiwicommie 2.1.1

        The Maori party is dying a slow death, they would be lucky to keep two seats, let alone their third. However I wouldn’t rely on the Maori party keeping with National, they can switch parties like they did when Labour lost out last time.

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.2

        bad12 – that’s why I was amazed when the Labour caucus seemed so determined to replace Goff as Leader asap. Goff had literally lost the election by just one or two seats to a first term tory Government (traditionally impossible to unseat), and a huge part of that could be pinned on Labour campaign strategists (Ducky and co.) not coping with a true MMP campaign, and not pushing back against the prevalent media meme of “it’s a foregone conclusion”.

        So Labour’s next move? Push Goff aside and put in place a rookie with 5% of the experience and political ability.

        Also speaking of trends, shit the trend was looking upwards and good for Labour between Aug 2009 and Oct 2010. How did that go for Labour in 2011?

        • Tim 2.1.2.1

          Just curious ….. does anyone know where Tony Timms stands on the current state of the Labour Party?
          I’m just interested because I’ve watched so many trad ‘stalwart’ LP people relinquish their principles once positions of comfort have been attained, and I’m well familiar with TT since ‘post Onslow College’ days.
          It’s interesting too when one listens to “from the Right & from the Right” to see how sacrificing basic principles are put down to airy fairy things like ‘modernisation’ and ‘economic reality’.

  3. Winston Smith 3

    Mid way through the 2nd term and even after the smears thrown about by the Greens and National (and John Key) are still massively popular

    But whatever you do don’t get rid of Shearer because hes your best chance of winning the next election ;)

    • It isn’t even election year, it is like claiming Helen Clark would be out of a job in mid 2007. If you want to be objective about polling, you won’t know who will likely win till the few months or weeks before election day; and then you have the coalition talks that can go anywhere.

    • RedBlooded 3.2

      Awh Winston, you’re such a Hoot. Yawn

  4. Blue 4

    It’s quite obvious that National has lost support – all the Key brainfades and dodgy casino deals have damaged him.

    But people are still left with that awful decision – Key vs. Shearer. In such a situation, they prefer to go with the dodgy liar over the incompetent fool.

    It’s time to face facts – National is not going to lose enough support while Shearer remains Labour’s leader.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      To rephrase your point, yes National will lose support over this term and all their dodgy deals – but they may not lose any votes, and certainly those votes may go over to the Greens and not Labour.

      • kiwicommie 4.1.1

        Yep Labour would win through a coalition arrangement. I wouldn’t say the loss in 2008, and again in 2011 was a good thing, but at least it evened out the votes among the center-left, so that a blow to a single party won’t bring the house of cards crashing down like it did in 2008; when center-left or left wing voters lost enthusiasm, and given no alternative party to Labour (as they saw it) stopped voting. Fortunately now they do have alternatives to vote for, and there are multiple center-left parties that can win votes and electorates in 2014, whereas in 2008 only Labour really had the capacity to fight for seats in a big way. Edit: But that isn’t to say that Labour can’t win back votes, and bring the center-left over the line if it works hard enough in 2014.

        • Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1

          I would underline the fact that Labour is a socially liberal but economically centrist capitalist party. They are not a left wing party in anyway except for some historical echoes. For instance there is no suggestion that they would significantly increase benefit levels to above the poverty line, bring back penal rates for overtime, restore free education for all etc.

          As a centrist party they will certainly take some actions to curb extremes of corporate profiteering and worker exploitation, etc. But that’s merely a moderate/centrist thing to do.

          • kiwicommie 4.1.1.1.1

            Labour has done things that at times can be called center-right and dead center, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Greens, and the rest can only really have a say with Labour; as National is far too center-right or right wing to even listen. I would agree that Labour is an economically centrist capitalist party, but it still has a center-left wing to the party; and it depends on the electorate – some are more conservative than others.

      • BM 4.1.2

        National voters will not vote green.
        They may vote for Winston first though.

        • Gareth 4.1.2.1

          As a matter of fact, my father in law who has been a National voter his whole life has become so disgusted with the Nanny State policies of National that he announced about a month ago that he’s switching his vote over to the Left next year. He can’t stomach voting Labour though so he’s going to vote Green. He and his conservative mates think Winston is a great laugh, but they wouldn’t vote for him.

          • BM 4.1.2.1.1

            I find that hard to believe.
            He’s voting green because National is too nanny state? to vote for a party that wants to control the size of your shower head or what type of light bulb you’re allowed to have.

            Either you’re making it up or your father in law is a complete idiot.

            • Gareth 4.1.2.1.1.1

              Neither. He is more concerned about taking away the right to go to court, railroading the Christchurch plan through and ignoring the high dollar (he runs an export business) than worrying about trivia like shower heads and light bulbs. Seriously, we turned off analogue tv and went digital. What’s the issue with upgrading to more efficient light bulbs??

              • Tim

                Maybe your father in law has had the same experiences as I have with NZ’s ‘right of centre’ parties over the years:
                a bunch of crass young Nats (a la Aaron Gilmore) learning how to become gauche old NActs (a la Tony Ryall). The only ones I ever had any time for did the smart thing and got the hell out.

            • Gareth 4.1.2.1.1.2

              Neither. He is more concerned about taking away the right to go to court, railroading the Christchurch plan through and ignoring the high dollar (he runs an export business) than worrying about trivia like shower heads and light bulbs. Seriously, we turned off analogue tv and went digital. What’s the issue with upgrading to more efficient light bulbs?

            • Gareth 4.1.2.1.1.3

              Apologies for the double post. The website said my first one was rejected.

              He also worries about the current account deficit and recognises that it’s mostly profits going overseas, and so thinks that selling state owned assets is a stupid idea. He acknowledges that he was in favour of it last time it happened, but unlike some he learns from his mistakes.

              He still likes all the labour law changes and has no problem with the WINZ stuff that’s happened. He’s still a conservative and we have great arguments about all that. But he’s pissed off enough at National about the bigger issues and thinks that Russell Norman has made enough sense that small manufacturer/exporters can give him a go.

              [lprent: moderated? spam? server message? browser message? Moderation queues the message for a moderator to look at. Spam may do that as well for me to look at or it just flushes it as being from a bot (happens incredibly seldom for humans). It could also be a server message saying that your message has failed - easy to see and it would say "lprent@primary.geek.nz". It could also be your browser telling you that it was unable to send it - usually because of connectivity problems.

              But there is no "rejected". There are just queues or errors. ]

              • felix

                Sounds like your father in law is a damn sight smarter than BM.

              • Gareth

                I’m not sure what was giving me the error I’m sorry. I put it down to my second post being written from Chrome on an iPhone.

                • lprent

                  Most likely the connection in that case. I never had much luck with iPhones on posts with large numbers of comments.

                  • I found that the iphone/ipod updates by Apple over the years have made accessing the web a lot harder, rather than easier. It usually just randomly quits after you finish reading a few posts on wordpress or blogger.

          • Pete 4.1.2.1.2

            My father, who grew up a rural, South Island pakeha and is in his 70s, used to be a staunch National supporter. Then he switched to Labour. He now intends to vote for Mana next year as he thinks Hone is the only one in Parliament who really seems to give a damn about the marginalised.

            • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1.2.1

              Wow. Just wow.

            • kiwicommie 4.1.2.1.2.2

              he now intends to vote for Mana next year as he thinks Hone is the only one in Parliament who really seems to give a damn about the marginalised.

              Well that’s true, he does actually care. He might be an MP but he hasn’t allowed that to disconnect him from the community, nor has he become an elitist like a lot of National party MP’s.

  5. tsmithfield 5

    Its a wierd world when righties are more supportive of the Labour leader than lefties.

    • tarkwin 5.1

      At least Labour has a proud history. it would be a real shame if the Greens destoy them.

      • AmaKiwi 5.1.1

        “At least Labour has a proud history. it would be a real shame if the Greens destroy them.”

        Proud history! Since the last election their behavior has been disgraceful.

    • Clockie 5.2

      It’s called concern trolling..

    • lprent 5.3

      That has been a pretty consistent pattern for David Shearer.. Perhaps you could speculate why? :twisted:

      Personally I think it has to do with left-wing activists who have been volunteering for decades having more experience with the requirements of on-the-ground left wing campaigning politics than either right wingers, political media commentators, or even inexperienced left-wing candidates parachuted in from the parliamentary staff.

  6. Sanctuary 6

    There has to be some disquiet at the failure of Labour to make a clean poll breakthough in the face of a series of scandals that should have seriously dented National’s poll lead.

    Looking back, I think most people wanted Goff gone because they thought it would achieve two outcomes: Firstly, it would signal a clean break with the Clark era, and help unhook Labour from the baggage of nine years of government – like the way Clark herself drew a line under the the Douglas years and repudiated radical reform as part of rebuilding trust with the electorate. Secondly, a new leader would give people who had switched votes to National a face-saving reason to switch back to Labour.

    Labour has perhaps achieved the first, but not the second. Everyone knew Shearer was unprepared, but I think people probably thought he might prove another Lange, like Athena leaping from Zeus’s head, fully grown and armed. He has been a slow learner. He is still basically an inarticulate and bumbling communicator in the media. He comes across on TV like3 he doesn’t really have much idea what he is talking about. Cunliffe or Robertson would both be far more articulate. A leader coup engineered by Robertson now, with Cunliffe as co-conspirator and elevated to the deputy leadership to ensure the new leadership team enjoyed 100% support under the new voting system, would energize the party base and provide an articulate new set of faces at the top.

    I thhink also that the Shearer/Cunliffe leadership battle itself has proven to have done more long term damage to the relationship between the party membership and the caucus old guard than was assumed at the time, reinforcing the need to rehabilitate Cunliffe in some way.

    Finally, much as Shearer has proved to be a major disappointment, I think a fair whack of the blame for Labours failure to make a poll breakthrough can be sheeted home to the senior caucus, which seems to me to be to complacent and self-serving to be an effective opposition. To use a rugby analogy, there are to many Ali Williams, Andrew Hores and Brad Thornes in Labour’s caucus whose best political days are in the past and they simply lack the energy and desperation a hungrier – and younger – caucus would bring to opposition.

    Plenty of voters are now looking for a reason to swtch votes to Labour. The party needs to provide an energetic and articulate leader to give them that reason and to snsure the sort of accoutability in his or her caucus that will see the underperformers quietly moved on – Mallard to be proomised the role of high commissioner in London, King to run an SOE, that sort of thing.

    • BM 6.1

      No you guys only represent minority groups and have no interest in middle NZ.
      That’s why you poll so slow.

    • If any change in leadership is to happen, it is best to wait till after the 2014 election, making any moves now would be too unsettling. Shearer might not have overwhelming trust behind him, but he isn’t a bad leader, even if you could have a better one.

      • David H 6.2.1

        And when the Debates start…….. Yeah Not a bad leader will not cut it. Labour need someone who can call Shonkey on every lie, every brain fade, and have the facts, and the ability to explain them in Proper English not political doubletalk! But Shearer??? The election will be over before he finishes a sentence.

        • kiwicommie 6.2.1.1

          *shrug* You mean another one those two party debates, that basically shut out the rest of the opposition, and ask one sided questions, that always put the government in a good light? Not sure whether participating in such a debate is a good idea, but even if he did terrible in a debate, the entire election isn’t resting on a single party – however there is no evidence that debates so far have made Shearer any better (or worse off), so it won’t influence polls.

    • There has to be some disquiet at the failure of Labour to make a clean poll breakthough in the face of a series of scandals that should have seriously dented National’s poll lead.

      It just has made a clean poll breakthrough, and this shouldn’t be the last of bad polls for National: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/new-zealand-voting-intention-may29-201305290604

  7. King Kong 7

    Merging with the Greens has been a terrible idea for Labour. Why would you cede control of your policy to a party with who are three times less popular than you?

    I have said it before, but if Labour wants to become more popular then they need to go to the mattresses against the Greens in a real way. By pointing out that the Greens are incompetent losers, they will drag back some of the naive lefties who have started to believe the Greens twaddle plus it will calm the horses with the centre who already know that the Greens are nuts and will be relieved to know that Labour realises this too.

    When it comes to coalition building, even if Labour has been giving them a kicking, where the hell else will the Greens go?

    • The Green movement is growing in terms of political voice, this is happening in Europe and Australia, and will only continue to grow. For Labour to ignore the Greens would make them as foolish as National and Act is to ignore or deny climate change, Labour and the Greens co-operate on some policies because they have merit. Labour as a centrist party will always have the issue of either appearing too center-left or as just staying too much in the center, however if the Labour party turned center-right (like the MSM want it to) it runs a far greater risk of losing support (as then voters see Labour as no different from National – thus don’t bother to vote).

      • King Kong 7.1.1

        From my understanding, support for the Greens around the world is seriously contracting.

        I am not suggesting that Labour ignore the Greens, in fact quite the opposite.

        They should be drawing attention to every bit of stupidity the Greens spout rather than giving them an easy ride.

        This is a war that Labour will win (because the Greens are total fags once you give them a bloody nose) and it will make Shearer and Labour look like competent winners. These are very sexy traits to the electorate.

        • infused 7.1.1.1

          You are correct that Greens are losing support around the world.

        • kiwicommie 7.1.1.2

          From my understanding, support for the Greens around the world is seriously contracting.

          Even the UK (which has a stronger center-right political system) has a growing Green party, so does Australia, and Germany has had a strong one for a while, as for trying to attack the Greens a lot, that is a waste of time. Green economics and such is a growing popular fad (like the peace movement was in the 1960s onwards), it might make you popular to some, but to the mainstream it just makes you look just as bad as the fringe of the green movement i.e. the climate change denier.

          Nor has attacking the Greens won Labour any favours in the polls, attacking the Greens is the best strategy for National, but it is a double edged sword – on one hand you show the electorate you ‘aren’t a crazy greenie’, but on the other you show you are out of touch with popular issues like climate change and lose votes of people that don’t so much care about green policies, as keeping up with the changing political climate.

          • BM 7.1.1.2.1

            Climate change is not a popular issue.
            Most believe it to be a pile of horse shit and a sneaky way to grab taxes and instill lefty policy.

            • Dv 7.1.1.2.1.1

              Many believed you would sail of the edge of the world too.

            • kiwicommie 7.1.1.2.1.2

              If you are talking about the carbon tax, I don’t agree with it – the carbon credit system has far too many loopholes. How you can’t think climate change is a popular issue I have no idea, even China that has to be one of the worlds biggest polluters is introducing policies about climate change.

              • BM

                I take it you’re quite young.
                Young people,yes very important issue, it’s been drummed into you all the way through your schooling, so it would be hard not to be passionate about climate change.
                Once you leave that school setup and gain a bit of experience you’ll realize not is all as it seems.

                When I was younger, the big thing was nuclear war,nuclear pollution we’re all going to die, ban nukes etc, down with nuclear anything.

                • tracey

                  It was nuclear war and nuclear accidents (which you call pollution) and while that was going on you were at a Springbok rugby match BM?

                  As classified documents have come out from the US relating tot he 50′s, 60′s and 70′s, and more recently Reagan’s years people were right to be scared of nuclear war given the ideologies of both the USA and Russian leadership.

                  I find your brand of blithe acceptance of things at face value (if it is from MR key et al) kind of scary. I shudder to think you are recommending that to young people as the result of “experience”. It sounds to me like you may well be the poster-boy for the modern propaganda. Feed the people sound bites, rely on their apathy to look no deeper and quietly roger them while they dream of being int he 1%. Politics by PR( read manipulation). I wonder, do you really believe, and can back with solid evidence, that NZ is a better place today (economically) or otherwise than 5 years ago?

                  • BM

                    Is anywhere in the world a better place today (economically) or otherwise than 5 years ago?
                    From what I’ve read, we’re doing really well compared to others.
                    Thank goodness we had National at the helm.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Anywhere? You mean like our two closest trading partners, for example, who grew throughout the whole period?

                      From what I’ve read of what you’ve written, your opinions have a serious problem with reality, which, if your continual use of weasel words is anything to go by, you appear to be aware of at some subconscious level.

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 7.1.1.2.1.3

              “Most”.

              It’s safe to ignore this innumerate garbage. 3% (Scientists) is not “most”. Neither is 12% (US citizens).

              The good thing about Climatology, though, is that it isn’t founded on belief.

            • tracey 7.1.1.2.1.4

              LOLOLOL @ “most believe”. Evidence?? is yMr key ying when he says he believes climate change is happening?

              • BM

                Key’s a politician.
                His support base will vote for him no matter what, he’s just trying to appeal to a wider audience, grab a few more voters in the center left.

                • tracey

                  Agree. I know someone who says she would vote for father Christmas if he were the leader of the national party. God forbid he ever do something like sign a painting for chairty… THAT is a big no-no amongst his suppoprt base.

                • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                  Would that be the “wider audience”, “most” of whom believe Climatology “to be a pile of horseshit”?

                  Your lies are falling off.

                  • BM

                    There’s two types of climate change.
                    Natural climate change and Man made climate change.

                    Everyone knows the climate is always changing, it’s the man made climate change movement that people are finding a bit whiffy.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      “People” – yes, 3% of scientists publishing in the field and 12% of US citizens, for example.

                      You lack a cogent, intelligent argument, you see. Also evidence, credibility, integrity and cognitive ability.

                    • McFlock

                      OAK – bm might lack those things, but other than that their statements are 100% reliable :)

            • JonL 7.1.1.2.1.5

              “The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
              All movements that reject an overwhelming scientific consensus show 5 inevitable characteristics. They celebrate fake experts, cherry pick the data, argue using misrepresentation and logical fallacies, indulge in conspiracy theories, and demand impossible expectations of what research can deliver.

              http://skepticalscience.com/5-characteristics-consensus-denial.html

        • tracey 7.1.1.3

          if it is contracting it may corrolate to an increase in green policies by mainstream parties.

          I can see why Key smears the Greens, they are calling English’s increasing deficit and increasing borrowing what it is and not pretending it isn’t, as English and Key do.

  8. Enough is Enough 8

    My concern is Labour has laid out there major policies (Kiwi Build, NZ Power, CGT) and gained next to no traction. There is not a lot of room in the coffers for them to lay down any other big ticket items and if they do, they will get the juvenile response from Key “show us the money”.

    Where does that leave us?

    If things stay the same we are going to sleep walk to defeat.

    • I find that political parties still haven’t adequately attacked ‘austerity economics’, as a result many voters till believe that ‘government debt’ is more of an issue than weak economic growth, high unemployment, rising poverty, high household debt, low salaries, and low wage growth. Actually taking on debt, in order to put in place stimulus measures, build vital infrastructure (like rail and a new internet cable) and create jobs, is better than just borrowing to get a surplus, that might not even happen.

      • Ennui 8.1.1

        In a world where “growth” was possible your argument would have merit. In our real world where the creation of credit (and hence the ability to take on and pay debt) is curtailed (forever as a general trend) neither stimulation policies or austerity will suffice. Both are dead ends.

        The unfortunate aspect of the above is that the electorate is conditioned to “delivery” based upon future payment of debt. They are conditioned to the concept of perpetual growth. In the mind of the electorate supply is perpetual and infinite, all they squabble over is who gets what, and who profits from this. This is the general tenet on this blog.

        What I am indicating is that Shearer versus Key, Left versus Right is of absolutely no consequence as the delivery will have the same result (no joy, it wont work for either). The REAL question that the electorate and the politicians do not want to hear and face, is how to manage contraction? How to allocate pain and dislocation?

        National of course don’t care, their sponsors own pretty much everything so they can sit on top of a shrinking mountain and be the last fat people on the whole pyramid. Labour conversely neither recognise the new reality, or have a clue how to sell it to the electorate.

        • kiwicommie 8.1.1.1

          neither stimulation policies or austerity will suffice. Both are dead ends.

          I disagree there, stimulus and the bailout worked in the United States, and don’t confuse stimulus with just ‘printing money’, it means putting money into R&D as well as growing small businesses. Austerity doesn’t work as it just eliminates the welfare state, and cuts government budgets in all the areas that generate growth such as in education, healthcare, and unemployment measures i.e. up-skilling. I am not saying that you can borrow all the time, as National is finding out you can only so far in terms of borrowing till you reach a point where the government can’t run a surplus.

          In New Zealand’s case, government reached 240% of GDP in debt in the 1920s or 1930s, and it has reached 50% as well, so government debt really isn’t the issue here, the issue is actually the high household debt, and weakness in terms of small business growth, as well as low salaries and low wages not keeping pace with costs such as electricity, housing, childcare; to the point that households have very little money to save, and the poor are kept in poverty (with very few breaking out of it) – thus adding to a decline in tax revenue.

          No one really knows what to do, it is a mid-point in economics. Neo-liberalism has failed, and so has Keynesianism in many areas, but just because Keynesianism failed is no reason to run after backers of austerity that ignore the government directed economic boom from the 1950s to the 1960s and mid 1970s in Europe, and elsewhere. ;)

          • Ennui 8.1.1.1.1

            KC, nothing you say above is untrue in the conventional sense. The issue is that they are predicated by growth and resource availability: these can and will go in reverse effectively stuffing up all you suggest.

            Rather than me argue the validity of my statement (I am off to lunch yippee) please have a read of Nicole Foss on theautomaticearth.com (or if you are in Wellington she is talking tomorrow night)…she is a very good starting point for the issues of peak resources and financial impacts.

            • kiwicommie 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Don’t live in New Zealand, but I am going to stick with Krugman. I never said growth or resources are infinite, and I really don’t see how that has anything do with austerity economics, nor anything I have said. As far as population, it is declining in the first world, and rising in the third world, if you are arguing that there will be a struggle for resources in the future, that seems to be ignoring that most economic growth is turning away from factory production and into the information age, that means that in the future most growth will be driven by technology in robotics, medicine, as well as publishing and media; a lot of people are losing their jobs in the transition – as people did with the industrial revolution. As long as space travel reaches a point within this century where asteroids can be mined, scarcity will no longer be the issue it is today. Edit: I do support genetic engineering, so I generally do feel that crop yields will increase once we fully understand how to use it.

              • Ennui

                Back from lunch: we may have to agree to disagree. As an exercise though, if you accept that consumption requires energy / resources (even PCs use energy…..) go to a spreadsheet. In column A add years downward. In B1 place the number 1. The calculation for B2 = B1*1.03 (this will equate to growth of 3% per annum). Set it up as a recurrent number in column B…..watch the compound effect and realise that after not too many years the number compounding becomes astronomical.

                Next part of the exercise, come to grips with the now well proven and accepted models of Hubbert (his model of resource extraction for oil works for all energy resources). Consider that we have passed peak for oil and are close with coal and gas (despite what the market says to pump share prices). Now consider the linkage between energy and growth (and consequently the ability to take on future debt via credit creation). Go back to the spreadsheet, look at the exponential growth scenario and ask “what resources can underpin these growth numbers”?

    • Rich the other 8.2

      Labours going to get what it deserves.

      A REAL THUMPING.
      They continue to demonstrate a complete lack of judgment on several issues .

      Parliament yesterday.
      An example , labours position on mining showed a real split in the party.

      The green party disciples , shearer, parker, dyson, etc are determined to continue backing the greens against all REASONED evidence .

      They are turning their back on employment and the $1 billion boost to our economy.
      Labour is giving many people NO choice.

      Next election ,A Landslide win for National.

      • tracey 8.2.1

        Do you consider “reasoned” evidence is based on financial outcome only?

        • Rich the other 8.2.1.1

          Tracey,
          Reasoned = the complete picture.
          This is an environmental issue .
          Ample evidence that this venture will be very positive for the environment and a welcome financial boost for the west coast and the country as a whole.

          What’s really puzzling is the fact that the proposed mining site has been mined in the past and has no special environmental protections.

      • kiwicommie 8.2.2

        Next election ,A Landslide win for National.

        On what evidence (at best National will hold what it has)? You realize that voters can vote someone out on a whim i.e. they are sick of having the same guy in power. It can be the best government in the world, but all you need is apathetic or bored voters.

    • CJA 8.3

      To be perfectly honest I think the policies they have released are unrealistic and unworkable. The classic example of this is the Kiwibuild policy. 100,000 house over ten years equates to building approximately 27 new houses per day (just basing it on simple numbers and not including apartment blocks of course), which in my mind is next to impossible just using logic. Sure if they said 30,000 or so I may have said that is reasonable. The NZ Power announcement won’t gain any traction for the swing voters in the middle where $300 really won’t make a hell a lot of difference and they are entering into an already complex industry by adding more complexity. Doesn’t make sense.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.3.1

        Date of state housing programme included in Walter Nash’s budget: 1936.

        State houses built by 1949: 30,000.

        “…between 1972 and 1974, the number of residential buildings completed per year increased by 10,000…” Source.

        “Logic” :lol:

        • CJA 8.3.1.1

          Sorry don’t quite understand what you’re meaning here? 100,000 new houses is logical or not? Using a Labour pamphlet as a source as well doesn’t really prove anything either.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.3.1.1.1

            In fact, if you go and check their figures and they’re lying, you’ll have scored an actual point. It also points out that in 2004 there were 32,000 building consents. Perhaps that’s a lie too, and so easy for even a wingnut to check!

            This sum has been done before. We’ve covered the house building record (two hours), the fact that the number of houses that can be built depends very much on the number of people available to build them (well duh!), costs, economies of scale, the works.

            One hundred thousand houses in ten years is ambitious but do-able.

            • CJA 8.3.1.1.1.1

              Don’t doubt figures that there were 32,000 building consents but would be interesting to know how many of those houses were built and completed in a years timeframe.

              • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                It would be less tiresome if you could Google the answers to your own questions – might help move the debate along a bit, eh.

                An example, Stonewood Homes, who’ve built about 4,000 houses since 1987 say: ” …in total somewhere between 30 to 44 weeks…”

                Not that that makes a blind bit of difference: if you start 27 houses in one day, some time later, you will finish 27 houses in one day. Do that every day, you get the picture?

                • CJA

                  Wasn’t actually a question which I needed/wanted an answer for.

                  • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                    First you’re “interested” in the answer, then you neither want nor need it. Is that because you’ve realised the answer makes you look a bit foolish or were you just arguing in bad faith from the start?

                    • CJA

                      Lol seriously? You wanted to come back on a simple statement? You’ll note that my reply above doesn’t contain a question mark hence forth I’m not asking a question simply musing.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      basically CJA is an idiot who doesn’t believe in the power of NZ workers to build things.

                      Like shit, building 5 houses a day in Greater Auckland, 5 in Greater Wellington, 5 in Christchurch, and 5 more spread out around the rest of the country,

                      Shit that’s like 20 houses built a day already! Impossible! Unrealistic! Can’t be done!

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Here’s how you build a 30 story hotel in 15 days.

                      If it was an apartment block that’s 20-30 apartments completed per day on average.

                      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdpf-MQM9vY

                    • CJA

                      I like how I can’t reply to Colonial Viper. So I’m assuming you’re a builder since you think it’s possible to complete 20 houses a day in addition to completing all other building projects around the country. It’s bollocks mate and you know it. It’s just another bribe that is believed will bring votes. Guess we’ll see at the next election on which side of the fence people sit.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Poor wee little old NZ

                      Can’t put together 20 houses a day

                      Even though there are 2000-3000 master builders right here right now

                      20 houses a day too much for little poor lazy Keeeeweeeees

                      Pathetic little country

                      Can it even put together 20 big macs a day? One has to wonder

                      Maybe we might have to pay this outdated thing called “over time”

                      Better import the kitsets from Indonesia

                      Maybe we can do it then?

                    • CJA

                      Good to see you agree with me.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      little ol’ NZ produces 300,000 cubic metres of lumbar a month but cannot build 20 extra houses a day!

                      Poor KeeeeWeeeeees what will they do???

                      20 houses a day too much for KeeeWeeees to comprehende!!!

                      How can little struggling KeeeeWeeees manage to produce 300,000 cubic metres of lumbar a month?

                      Surely poor KeeeeeWeeees would struggle just to put through 3,000 cubic metres of lumbar a month, that’s sooooooo much wooooooood but so few houses!!!

                    • CJA

                      Don’t forget that we all wear grass skirts and have no electricity either lol.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      well, it’s you who doesn’t have faith in your country or your countrymen, so fuck off to Australia you disloyal loser.

                    • CJA

                      Sticks and stones CV. Sticks and stones. Anyway where did I say anything about no faith in our country or countrymen? Anyway enough playtime. I’ll pick this up tomorrow. Ciao for now.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Yeah I figured that you consider the future of this country a kiddies game.

                      Anyway where did I say anything about no faith in our country or countrymen?

                      In everyone of your weasel worded defeat monkey sentences.

                    • CJA

                      Lol “stupid making sense weasel words”. God damn using logic to make sense of things, must come up with more pie in the sky type thinking to convince people of stupid schemes. Oh well.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      “Logic”

                      We covered this already, surrender monkey.

                    • CJA

                      Lol and now I’m french. Drawing a long bow there fellas.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Not French: a defeatist, possessed of a “can’t do” attitude.

                    • CJA

                      Ever heard the phrase “Under promise and over deliver”? If Labour were smart that’s what they would be doing or promising. Instead we get schemes that aren’t achievable and unrealistic. It will come back to bite them and only time will tell.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Yeah, like promising 170,000 jobs and delivering higher unemployment instead.

                    • CJA

                      Yep totally agree with you. Stupid comment to make and it’s brought up often. The only difference is they’re still in government and based on 3 out of the 4 polls will probably remain in government next year. Labour have to stop being lead by the Greens. It’s a shame as some of the Greens are truly loopy.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Have you got anything substantive to contribute, or is this vacuous drivel the best you can do?

                    • CJA

                      Lol you seem to keep replying.

  9. Head in the sand stuff here as usual.

    Maybe you will like to do a similar graph for the greens, you know the party that sometimes is up to
    15% in the polls but ends up around 9-10% at every election.

    • Next election could go either way for the Greens, but that is a matter for 2014, even keeping what they have would be a change for the greens (as in the past they haven’t been able to keep their gains for long).

      • BM 9.1.1

        I remember the last election, the greens were dead and buried, the talk was that they’d struggle to make the 5% threshold.
        Then those fuckwits put the Rena on the rocks, the greens were thrown a life line and were back in the game.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 9.1.1.1

          Reality check: Fairfax media poll – so we know it must be accurate ;) – support for Greens at September 2011 – 10%.

          Rena demonstrated everything the National Party represents in October.

          BM found wanting on the ol’ perceptions of the real world front again.

          We need better wingnuts. BM needs better lies.

        • Lanthanide 9.1.1.2

          Funny, I don’t remember that first bit at all. Maybe you made it up.

    • lprent 9.2

      ..do a similar graph for the greens..

      It has been done before and for that matter has been repeatedly pointed out over the years.

      But for your edification… Across all of the polls, they will usually well over-represent National, Act and the Greens compared to the eventual vote. Labour, UF, and the Maori party are usually pretty close to actual results with a tendency to slight under representation. NZ First is usually well under represented. The non-vote is always massively under represented.

      This is a pattern that has been pretty consistent for quite a few election cycles so far.

  10. Matthew Hooton 10

    James, you raise an important point here. National won 47.31% in the last election, on a low turnout. I find it extremely difficult to believe that, even with the big upswing in the economy since 2011, that now has more support than it did then. Yet that’s what most of the polls are saying, just as most had National above 50% for much of the 2008-11 period. And this risks distorting voting behaviour – both lazy Labour people thinking it is not worth voting because their party is doomed, and also lazy National people thinking it is not worth voting because their party is a shoe in.

  11. Chooky 11

    Brand Image:

    Goff did not win His election ( not because he was associated with Helen Clark , who was a winner, or because he was unable) but because he was associated with Roger Douglas and it was a contradictory message he was giving out…ie “Stop Asset Sales!” .His brand image was irredeemably damaged.

    Brand Image Questions:

    1.) Does Shearer appeal to young voters as a dynamic ,articulate, youthful Opposition leader in waiting?
    2.) Does Shearer look like the dynamic leader of a future Left coalition.?
    3.) Can Shearer go effectively head to head with the John Key brand?( successful ,dynamic , youngish, multimillionaire trader)
    4.) What sort of brand image does Shearer give the Labour Party?

    Answer: Should be obvious… ( ask any professional advertising agency )

    Question: Who would create the best brand for Labour in media debates? ( ask an advertising agency)

    Question: Does Labour want to win the next election with a Left coalition?

    • kiwicommie 11.1

      Question: Does every government in the world need a popular leader?
      Answer: Not under a multi party system.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.1

        Popularity? Pfft. I’d settle for an effective communicator.

        • Tim 11.1.1.1

          On an unrelated matter, and with due regard to the MSM’s preoccupation(s), and C.V.’s observation re the NZ Hero and his recent acquisition of jet power, I notice Tony Ryall’s ‘wifey’ has managed to run up another little number (on the Elna) in pink gingham AND what’s more, provide a tie that has a matching pattern.
          Those unsolicited missives from various ‘fashionistas’ I receive – directed to people that are now in line for Solicitor’s General, Crown Prosecutors, ‘decision makers’, prospective politicians (when their various ‘eksents’ become acceptable to the masses), are becoming increasingly irrelevant – not unlike the over-bombardment of ads with increased volume.

          It must have been a struggle for Ryall’s wifey I know, but even so – checks and stripes (and dots) don’t go that well – unless you’re struggling for kitsch (KITSCH being a baby boomer’s description of a New NActional) – albeit a kitsch that comes about when you’re not ekshly looking for a kitsch – it js happins.

          AGAIN…. I’ll expect a Populuxicle to come along shortly and protest (not yet sure on what grounds) – possibly homophobia, racism even, perhaps any – most other/any ‘ism’ yet to be discovered.

      • McFlock 11.1.2

        ooo snap :)

        • McFlock 11.1.2.1

          sorry – that was to kc :)

          • kiwicommie 11.1.2.1.1

            Well look at it this hypothetically:
            RWL (Right Wing Leader) has 35%
            C-CLPL’s (Center-Center Left party Leaders):
            X has 20%
            Y has 10%
            Z has 5%
            One party leader can have 35%, but collectively the other parties can have a percentage each for their party leaders, it is possible to have a popular right wing leader; but that doesn’t mean he is much more popular the collective popularity of the left wing leaders. Maybe you can’t enjoy your lunch without your Shearer burger, Norman salad, and your Harawira milkshake.

  12. McFlock 12

    Nice chart :)

  13. aerobubble 13

    Polls aren’t accurate since many many people turn off between elections and do not engage until they need to, so there is a built in inertia to them. Key in the last too elections lost 3% of the vote from the pre-election polling to the actual election result. Remember the polls predicting the first governing alone MMP govt of John Key as ACT vote had collapsed.

  14. Bearded Git 14

    National got in last time partly on their competent handling of the earthquakes. This benefit has now largely gone-neutralised by the slow building/planning progress and awful Brownlee and this combined with the schools debacle means Chch is back with Labour (see the chch poll today-Labour at 40%). Hillside has done for Nats in Dunedin. Saying that Wellington is dying and there is no solution means Nats are in trouble in Wellington.

    If Labour/Greens can get some more of the south Auckland vote out a drover’s dog could win this election-so even Shearer should win it. I am confident.

    • kiwicommie 14.1

      Well I have always been proud of Wellington, it has to be one of the most progressive cities in New Zealand. National have never been liked much there, hence why Labour, Greens and other center and center-left parties do so well in Wellington. If John Key wants to lose more votes in Wellington, he is welcome to. ;)

  15. Jimmie 15

    I think Shearer’s best ally is Mr Uncertainty.

    The two main contenders Cunliffe and Robertson cannot just run some sneaky numbers in the backroom as in yesteryear.

    Under the new rules if Shearer gets the boot then it goes to the party and the unions (and caucus) for voting – what would the outcome be?

    I think this more than anything will keep Shearer in his job through until 2014.

    Is this the best thing for the party? Time will tell.

    Perhaps it was the membership voting for a long term victory (to get their preferred candidate) while conceding a short term (2014) defeat.

  16. Shearer will be breathing a big sigh of relief at the latest Roy Morgan. National down to 41%, Labour up to 35% and the Greens on 12% …

    Of course what the reality is is something that we can only speculate on.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/new-zealand-voting-intention-may29-201305290604

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      Just saw that. A decent showing for Labour and an ebbing away for National. Roy Morgan chose to present the result as voters unimpressed with English’s budget. I wonder what respondants said to his phone bank team…

      Greens unchanged on 12%

      • Olwyn 16.1.1

        I have to say it. Whenever I get my hopes up that there is going to be a shift toward something, almost anything, heartening, in the Labour Party, the good old polls cry 35%, which has become the new 45%, and other people click their heels and I just sigh.

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1

          Beggars and choosers I’m afraid.

          Labour, a party who claims to represent the 99%, elated at hitting 35%. Where’s the disconnect?

    • Sanctuary 16.2

      So let me get this right… There is an EIGHT percentage point difference between Roymorgan and Fairfax/TVNZs level of support for National? That is an insane amount, and calls into question the accuracy of all of the polls.

      • Colonial Viper 16.2.1

        It’s simply the difference between doing all your polling in Mt Wellington and all your polling in Ellerslie

  17. irascible 17

    Interestingly, when respondents were polled on Key’s truthfulness and trustworthiness regardless of political persuasion the respondents took some time to answer. The report in the paper indicates considerable disquiet developing around Key’s trustworthiness and truthfulness.

  18. Cliff 18

    Agree that the polls need to be seen as trends rather than taken in isolation, but the trends are that Labour is not delivering the king hits they should be. We know that there is a whole soft centre core of voters in there that will swing around like mad come campaign season – they are the fodder for NZ First, Act and the Conservatives – and Labour, if we could get our act together.

    I am so disappointed by the showing of our Labour MPs on the Budget. Only a few of them – Ian Lees Galloway, David Clark and David Cunliffe – actually delivered any kind of robust analysis of the smoke and mirrors that constitutes this Budget – and it wasn’t pulled through into this week’s performance at all. Why not let those boys at it rather than relegating them to the cheap seats because of petty factionalism? And where is the strategy – Not even a Finance question in the House today? Let alone a question that would deliver an attack on Hekia on Education today – in anticipation of the ChCh schools announcement this afternoon? What is going on? Where is the strategy?

    Or is this the strategy – to let poor David Shearer fail at the last hurdle?

    I really want Labour to win the next election but it aint going to happen this way and I’m giving up on working out what it is going to take to make our Parliamentary representatives understand that.

    • Colonial Viper 18.1

      neither the Leader nor the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party have any strong grasp of conventional orthodox economic theory (the one the neolibs have been using to suck the world dry), let alone a working understanding of alternative heterodox economics.

      David Parker is much better but he’s still a fairly orthodox market forces pricing signal regulatory mechanisms kind of guy. And anyways you can’t have him front footing complex economic arguments in front of a camera to Joe Public because it’s just not something he can pull off.

      Key is going to run the entire TV debate series next year using an extended theme and variations of “Show Me the Money”.

      Basically, we’re royally fucked, thanks to the fine political judgement of 65% of the Labour caucus.

      • Alanz 18.1.1

        +1,000,000

        mmm why is there a feeling of getting spit roasted (not in a nice way) by John Key & the Nats at one end but also by 65% of the Labour caucus as well … unbelievable (in terms of the latter)

    • Saarbo 18.2

      +1

  19. Is their a newzealand version of Nate Silver?

  20. millsy 20

    Part of me hopes that National gets in in 2014.

    Why?

    Because the level of hardship, misery, homlessness, sickness, pollution and poisoned water would be so unberable that in 2017, National would be tossed out for a generation, and a fresh batch of Labour/Green visionaries would be able to take New Zealand into a new future.

    • Jimmie 20.1

      ‘Visionary’ Now that is a scary word to associate with the green party and parliament.

      Translated it equals: Greens tell everyone else what they can and cannot do – ban this, ban that, live like old school communal hippies, oh but smoking up the green stuff is just fine.

      • felix 20.1.1

        You should try actually reading or listening to the greens sometime.

      • millsy 20.1.2

        Jimmie, you think its OK for the air we breathe to be poisoned and the water we drink to be fouled dont we.

        Both, IMO are crimes against humanity.

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    No Right Turn | 29-08
  • Speaker: Rocking in the Public Good: Hager and Shihad
    Seldom has New Zealand seen such super-harmonies in the traditionally separate spheres of music  and investigative journalism. The release of New Zealand prog-rocker Nicky Hager’s latest album Dirty Politics coincided with the well known citizen journalist group Shihad’s book FVEY,...
    Public Address | 29-08
  • The cost of irrigation
    At the moment, the government is pushing irrigation and water storage as a way of increasing milk production and boosting the economy. Critics have argued that the result will be dirty, polluted rivers unfit for recreational use. And we've just...
    No Right Turn | 29-08
  • An empty void at the heart of the election
    Its election time. The blog should be humming. Its not. Why? Because there's not enough policy to comment on. Note that this is not a complaint about Dirty Politics. How power is exercised and the ethics displayed in doing so...
    No Right Turn | 29-08
  • Making money out of fanatics
    Click on image to enlarge This looks like a Xcd cartoon. I picked it up from a new Facebook page The Girl Against Fluoride Lies. Good to see more and more Facebook pages like this. Speaking of fluoride – the cartoon sort...
    Open Parachute | 29-08
  • Debate 1
    As you know, there was a debate last night, and the consensus appears to be that David Cunliffe won. (The strongest clue that National also thinks Cunliffe won is that Kiwiblog has seven posts up this morning to change the...
    Polity | 29-08
  • Britomart precinct quick wins
    It has now been three months since Janette Sadik-Khan visited Auckland and showed us how easy it was to create a more liveable city by making things better for people to walk and cycle around, and best of all we...
    Transport Blog | 29-08
  • Poll of Polls update – 29 August 2014
    The polls are coming thick and fast. There must be an election on… Yesterday, we had the release of the latest Herald Digipoll, while this morning it’s the Fairfax Ipsos poll. In the Digipoll, National are up 0.7% to 50.7%,...
    Occasionally erudite | 28-08
  • World News Brief, Friday August 29
    Top of the AgendaUkraine Accuses Russia of Invasion...
    Pundit | 28-08
  • Hard News: Friday Music: Tramadol Rock
    I saw Samuel Flynn Scott a couple of times last year at the time he was suffering through a back injury in a haze of painkillers. It made for a fairly spaced out Phoenix Foundation show at the Powerstation --...
    Public Address | 28-08
  • Vale Brad Fletcher, MUNZ Lyttelton Branch President
    The Maritime Union is greatly saddened by the death of Maritime Union Lyttelton Branch President Brad Fletcher in a workplace accident on Thursday 28 August 2014. Maritime Union National Secretary Joe Fleetwood says the death of Brad Fletcher, a full-time...
    MUNZ | 28-08
  • Matthew Hooton (Fanatical National Supporter) Says Key is “Dishonest”
    This morning on Radio Live, Matthew Hooton has said what John Key is saying about about not being told of the SIS Official Information Request release to Scumbag Adulterous Blogger Cameron Slater, is “unbelievable”....
    An average kiwi | 28-08
  • How most people get hacked
    Chris Trotter writes about hackers:  LISBETH SALANDER is the archetypal hacker: a damaged outsider; phenomenally clever; contemptuous of society’s rules; but possessed of an unflinching, if somewhat quirky, sense of right and wrong. Without Lisbeth, the journalist hero of Stieg Larsen’sThe...
    DimPost | 28-08
  • Rift in National Party – MPs Want Key Gone
    Rumours are rife that some National MPS are planning to oust John Key as leader after the election, while others say Key almost without a doubt will be resigning not long after the election. Key is apparently ‘fed up’ with...
    An average kiwi | 28-08
  • Quick post debate comment
    The general consensus seems to be that Cunliffe ‘won’ the debate although not overwhelmingly. Various pundits have wondered what happened to Key. Why wasn’t he funnier? Didn’t he prepare enough?  I think Key’s problem last night went a bit deeper...
    DimPost | 28-08
  • National Housing propaganda – McGehan Close Revisited
    .   . Housing has become a major, defining issue in New Zealand. We have critical shortages and escalating prices in  in the main centres and falling house values in the regions. The National government has addressed the supply &...
    Frankly Speaking | 28-08
  • National Housing propaganda – McGehan Close Revisited
    .   . Housing has become a major, defining issue in New Zealand. We have critical shortages and escalating prices in  in the main centres and falling house values in the regions. The National government has addressed the supply &...
    Frankly Speaking | 28-08
  • New Zealand can’t put the urban genie back in its bottle
    Although the majority of New Zealanders have lived in towns and cities for almost a century, it sometimes seems like we’re in denial that we live in an urban nation. This unease came to the fore during the debate over...
    Transport Blog | 28-08
  • Entering The Labyrinth
    The New Theseus: In a world of mendacious politicians, giant corporations and impenetrable public bureaucracies, the hacker offers the only credible hope of entering the modern labyrinth. Stieg Larsen's character, Lisbeth Salander, is the archetypal fictional representation of the "White...
    Bowalley Road | 28-08
  • Wellington National Is Not Our Future Rally 30/8/14
    Press Release – TPPA Action – Wellington Thousands of people will march and rally at National is not our Future events on Saturday. Auckland is the main rally centre with supportive actions in Wellington, Dunedin, Christchurch and Hamilton. In Wellington,...
    Its our future | 28-08
  • Gordon Campbell on last night’s debate, and the Collins accusation
    Debating is a peculiar discipline in that what you say is less important than how you’re saying it. Looking poised, being articulate and staying on topic generally wins the day – and on that score, Labour leader David Cunliffe won...
    Gordon Campbell | 28-08
  • Sean Plunket comes around on the Watergate comparison (‘Dirty Politics’...
    Here’s RadioLIVE talkback host Sean Plunket from this morning — thinking his way through the prickly situation revealed in Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics … and finding the comparison to Watergate and dirty tricks orchestrated from Richard Nixon’s office is...
    The Paepae | 28-08
  • Time to change: Another Fatality at Lyttelton, Port of Christchurch
    On January 6th 2014 I asked When will the next fatality happen at Lyttelton, Port of Christchurch?, after a near miss gave clear evidence that the Port’s safety systems were not in control. It was a prediction that was almost...
    Lance Wiggs | 28-08
  • The First Leaders’ Debate: Cunliffe Shows His Quality.
    Epic Struggle: Tonight New Zealanders were privileged to witness a truly outstanding encounter between two highly effective politicians. Leaving aside its ridiculous "poll", TVNZ has just screened one of the best leaders' debates in decades.WHAT A BLOODY SHAME. For 59 minutes TVNZ...
    Bowalley Road | 28-08
  • US State Department underestimates carbon pollution from Keystone XL
    This is like the movie Groundhog Day. I seem forever forced to correct the State Department’s errant analysis of Alberta tar sands emissions. Now, however, other people are agreeing with me. A recent paper published in Nature Climate Change reviewed...
    Skeptical Science | 28-08
  • Stuart’s 100 #16 A Retail Renaissance?
    16: A Retail Renaissance? What if Topshop Topman was just the beginning? Over the past year or so there has started to be some recognition in the media that change is afoot in the central city retail scene (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11269705, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11262222 ) ....
    Transport Blog | 28-08
  • Labour on the environment
    Labour released its environment policy today. While supposedly predicated on the idea of "no healthy economy without a healthy environment", its... weak. On the core issue of the RMA, they reject National's latest round of gutting, but basically accept all...
    No Right Turn | 28-08
  • World News Brief, Thursday August 28
    Top of the AgendaNATO Plans New Bases as Poroshenko Meets Putin...
    Pundit | 28-08
  • Britain’s toxic elite
    In something that should be news to no-one, a report has found that Britain is in the thrall of an unrepresentative elite:Britain is "deeply elitist" because people educated at public school and Oxbridge have in effect created a "closed shop...
    No Right Turn | 28-08
  • Debates don’t change anything unless they do
    Leaders’ debate tonight! Reading through some of the political science about debates over lunchtime and the general consensus seems to be that debates don’t really change voters’ minds unless one of the debaters dramatically under-performs or over-performs.  But all other things...
    DimPost | 28-08
  • Labour to foster Kiwi love of sport and the great outdoors
    A Labour Government will promote physical activity, back our top athletes and help foster Kiwis’ love of the great outdoors by upgrading tramping and camping facilities. Trevor Mallard today released Labour’s sports and recreation policy which will bring back a...
    Labour | 29-08
  • Pacific languages recognised under Labour
    Labour will act to recognise the five main Pacific languages in New Zealand including through the education system, said Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio. Announcing Labour’s Pacific Island policy he said that there must be a strong commitment to...
    Labour | 29-08
  • No healthy economy without a healthy environment
    Labour recognises that we cannot have a healthy economy without a healthy environment, says Environment spokesperson Moana Mackey announcing Labour’s environment policy. “New Zealand’s economy has been built on the back of the enormous environmental wealth we collectively enjoy as...
    Labour | 28-08
  • Better protection, fairer deal for Kiwi consumers
    Tackling excessive prices, ensuring consumers have enough information to make ethical choices and giving the Commerce Commission more teeth are highlights of Labour’s Consumer Rights policy. “The rising cost of living is a concern for thousands of Kiwi families. A...
    Labour | 28-08
  • Media Advisory – MANA Movement Candidate for Waiariki Annette Sykes, Waia...
    Media are advised that this coming weekend, the MANA Movement Candidate for Waiariki, Annette Sykes, will be on the Internet MANA Road Trip within the electorate of Waiariki. Speakers confirmed are Annette Sykes, Hone Harawira, John Minto, Laila Harre and Kim...
    Mana | 27-08
  • Internet MANA – Waiariki Road Trip: 29, 30, 31 Aug 2014
    The Internet MANA Road Trip hits Waiariki this weekend. It would be great if all MANA members in Waiariki could especially attend the public meetings and show their support for our Waiariki candidate Annette Sykes. Confirmed speakers Hone Harawira (except Taupo), Annette...
    Mana | 27-08
  • First home buyers $200 a week better off with Labour
    A couple earning around $75,000 a year would be $200 a week better off buying a two bedroom terraced Labour KiwiBuild home instead of an equivalent new build under National’s housing policy, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe.  “National’s policy to...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Another Day – Another big power profit
    The latest profit announcement from Genesis Energy shows that the power company was sold for a song to the detriment of the country’s power consumers, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “A net profit of $ 49.2 million follows hard...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour embraces the rainbow
    Labour will work hard to ensure all New Zealanders enjoy the freedom to grow up and live their lives in dignity and security. Labour’s Rainbow policy, released tonight in Wellington, focuses on International Relations, Human Rights and Education....
    Labour | 26-08
  • National gets fast and loose with the facts
    In their desperation to make it look as though they are doing something about the housing crisis, National is playing fast and loose with the facts, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford....
    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour will drop power prices for Kiwi families
    New Zealanders will get cheaper power prices under NZ Power, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “The electricity market is clearly broken. With falling demand for electricity, prices should be going down. Instead prices are going up and companies are extracting...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Labour: Promoting sustainable tourism
    Ensuring New Zealand’s clean, green status continues to be an international tourism benchmark and reviewing MBIE’s oversight of the tourism sector will be on the radar under a Labour Government. Releasing Labour’s Tourism policy today, spokesperson Darien Fenton said tourism...
    Labour | 26-08
  • Skills shortage a result of National’s complacency
    The fact that there is still a severe shortage of skilled tradespeople, despite a growth in the number of apprentices, is a result of National’s failure to plan and develop the workforce, Grant Robertson, Labour Employment, Skills and TrainingSpokesperson says."The...
    Labour | 26-08
  • How much tax does John Key pay compared to a minimum wage worker?? – Mint...
    MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is calling for a radical overhaul of New Zealand’s taxation system with calculations showing that a minimum wage worker pays a ten times higher tax rate than the Prime Minister. o Minimum wage...
    Mana | 25-08
  • Labour’s culture of science and innovation
    Labour will create a culture of science and innovation in New Zealand that will be the envy of the world, says Labour’s Innovation, Research and Development spokesperson Megan Woods. “Labour believes that good science lies at the heart of a...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Improving life for our new New Zealanders
    New Zealand’s international standing as a community that encourages and fosters all cultures will be bolstered under a Labour Government with an upgrade of the present Office of Ethnic Affairs to a Ministry. Releasing Labour’s Ethnic Affairs policy, spokesperson Phil...
    Labour | 25-08
  • South Auckland housing crisis
    National’s HomeStart package is nothing more than a political stunt designed to beguile South Auckland voters, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio. “Few working Pasifika and Maori workers in South Auckland will be able to buy their own...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Home buyer subsidy discredited in Oz
    Treasury advised against National’s policy of ramping up home buyer subsidies after it was discredited in Australia because it pushed house prices even higher, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Documents released under the OIA (attached) show Treasury advised the...
    Labour | 25-08
  • Nursing hours explain turnover and high-stress culture
    A staff survey supports concerns nursing staff at Dunedin Hospital are under increasing pressure and that the emergency department is in a critical state, says Labour’s Associate Health Spokesperson David Clark.  “An ED nursing survey at Dunedin found that 80...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Underhand tactics prove case for axing donations
    Revelations that schools are using underhand tactics to coerce donations from cash-strapped parents further highlights the need for Labour's plan to increase funding so they aren't dependent on contributions from parents, Labour's Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “By law New...
    Labour | 24-08
  • National applies band-aid to housing crisis
    The Government’s flagship housing announcement is a band-aid approach that will push up prices rather than solve the housing crisis, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “House sales to first home buyers have collapsed as a direct result of the Government’s...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Climate change focus on the now for the future
    A Labour Governmentwill put in place a comprehensive climate change strategy focusing on bothmitigation and adaptation, establish an independent Climate Commission andimplement carbon budgeting, says Labour Climate Change spokesperson MoanaMackey."This is about future-proofing our economy. Making the transition to alow-carbon...
    Labour | 24-08
  • Labour’s 21st century transport pledge
    The next Labour-led Government will create a 21st century transport system for New Zealand that promotes the most efficient and sustainable combination of transport options, says Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Labour will rebalance the Government's transport spending away from...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Housing under National: the facts
    1.       House prices in Auckland Council valuations indicate Auckland house prices have gone up by one-third over the last three years. (Auckland Council) The average Auckland house price has gone up by nearly $225,000 since 2008, up over $75,000 in...
    Labour | 23-08
  • Labour irons out low income tax issue
    The increasing casualisation of work has led to many New Zealand families being disadvantaged through the tax they pay, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. "Many low paid workers are having to work two or three jobs to make ends meet...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Cornered Government comes out swinging
    The National Government is so desperate to keep its dead-in-the-water expert teachers policy alive, it has refused to rule out forcing schools to participate through legislation, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “John Key today attacked the Educational Institute for...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Pacific people continue to go backwards under National
    A report from Victoria University highlights the fact that Pacific people are continuing to go backwards under a National Government, said Labour’s Pacific Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “The report shows the largest inequality increases were in smoking, obesity, tertiary...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Wellington transport plan needs to keep moving
    The failure of the Transport Agency to properly look at alternatives to the Basin Reserve flyover is not a good reason for further delays to improving transport in Wellington, Labour MPs Grant Robertson and Annette King say. “The Board of...
    Labour | 22-08
  • Labour’s focus on inequality, kids and better job prospects
    Tackling child poverty and removing barriers to people working part time to enhance their prospects of moving into a fulltime job are highlights of Labour’s Social Development policy. Releasing the policy today, spokesperson Sue Moroney said while part-time work was...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Political staff should give answers under oath
    The Inspector General of Security and Intelligence should use her full statutory powers to question witnesses under oath about the leak of SIS information, says Labour MP Phil Goff. “Leakage of confidential information from the SIS for political purposes is...
    Labour | 21-08
  • High dollar, hands-off Govt sends workers to dole queue
    The loss of up to 100 jobs at Croxley stationery in Auckland is devastating news for their families and the local Avondale community, Labour’s Employment, Skills and Training spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The company’s inability to compete in international markets...
    Labour | 21-08
  • National’s flagship education policy dead in the water
    National’s plan to create executive principals and expert teachers is effectively dead in the water with news that 93 percent of primary teachers have no confidence in the scheme, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “The fact that teachers are...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Dunedin will be a knowledge and innovation centre under Labour
    Dunedin will become a knowledge and innovation centre under a Labour Government that will back local businesses, support technology initiatives and fund dynamic regional projects, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “Nowhere has the National Government’s short-sightedness been more apparently than...
    Labour | 21-08
  • Inquiry into SIS disclosures the right decision
    Labour MP Phil Goff says the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has done the right thing by launching an inquiry into the disclosure of SIS documents about a meeting between himself and the agency’s former director-general. “This inquiry is necessary...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Labour – supporting and valuing carers and the cared for
    Placing real value on our elderly and the people who care for them will be a priority for a Labour Government, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. Releasing Labour’s Senior Citizens policy today David Cunliffe promised that a Labour Government would...
    Labour | 20-08
  • By Hoki! It’s Labour’s fisheries policy
    A Labour Government will protect the iconic Kiwi tradition of fishing by improving access to the coast, protecting the rights of recreational fishers and reviewing snapper restrictions, Labour’s Fisheries spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “Catching a fish from the rocks, beach...
    Labour | 20-08
  • Mighty River – Mighty Profits – Mighty hard to swallow
    Mighty River Power’s profit increase of 84 per cent is simply outrageous, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “Demand for electricity is flat or declining yet the company has made enormous profits. It is the latest power company to celebrate...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Collins’ actions were wrong, not unwise
    John Key’s moral compass remains off-kilter as he cannot bring himself to declare Judith Collins’ actions outright wrong, not simply ‘unwise’, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “Under pressure John Key is finally shifting his stance but his failure to condemn...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Public servants behaving with more integrity than their masters
    The State Services Commission's new report on the integrity of our state services reflects the yawning gap between the behaviour of public servants and that of their political masters, Labour's State Services spokesperson Maryan Street says. “This report, which surveyed...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Phil Twyford Speech to NZCID
    "Labour's plan to build more and build better: how new approaches to housing, transport and urban development will deliver cities that work" Phil Twyford, Labour Party spokesperson on housing, transport, Auckland issues, and cities.  ...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Labour commits to independent Foreign Affairs and Trade
    “Labour is committed to New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs and Trade policy being independent and proactive, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “We are a small but respected country. Our voice and actions count in international affairs. Labour will take a...
    Labour | 19-08
  • Key must sack Collins over abhorrent actions
    The latest revelations that Judith Collins sent the contact details of a public servant to WhaleOil in a desperate attempt to divert media attention from a bad story is abhorrent, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key and Judith Collins...
    Labour | 19-08
  • It’s downhill from here under National
    The forecast drop in exports and predicted halving of growth shows that it’s downhill from here with National, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Growth under this Government peaked in June and halves to two per cent in coming years....
    Labour | 19-08
  • John Key loses moral compass over Collins
    John Key has lost his moral compass over Judith Collins’ involvement with Cameron Slater and lost touch with New Zealanders’ sense of right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “Whoever is Prime Minister there are expectations they will not...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Mana Movement General Election 2014 List confirmed
    The MANA List is now confirmed with all the candidates as below (the numbers are the respective Internet MANA rankings). Candidate, Electorate, Internet MANA List Position Hone Harawira, Te Tai Tokerau (1) Annette Sykes, Waiariki (3) John Minto, Mt Roskill (4) Te Hamua Nikora, Ikaroa-Rawhiti...
    Mana | 18-08
  • PREFU likely to confirm dropping exports
    National’s economic management will be put under the spotlight in tomorrow’s PREFU given clear signs the so-called rock star economy has fallen off the stage, with plummeting prices for raw commodity exports, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Under National,...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Record profits while Kiwis face a cold winter
    The record profits by two of New Zealand’s largest electricity companies will be a bitter pill for New Zealand households who are paying record amounts for their power, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “No doubt the Key government will...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time for John Key to answer yes or no questions
    John Key’s train-wreck interview on Morning Report shows he is no longer capable of a simple yes or no answer and has lost touch with what’s right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key has become so media...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Key must clarify who signed out SIS OIA
    Yet again John Key is proving incapable of answering a simple question on an extremely important issue – this time who signed off Cameron Slater’s fast-tracked SIS OIA request on Phil Goff, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “John Key’s claim...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time to invest in our tertiary education system
    A Labour Government will fully review the student support system – including allowances, loans, accommodation support and scholarships – with a view to increasing access and making the system fair, transparent and sustainable, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Maryan Street says....
    Labour | 17-08
  • Why has it all gone quiet on Charter Schools?
    They’re one of ACT’s flagship policies and the National Party have been gung ho in supporting them. So how come we’re not hearing Hekia Parata, Jamie Whyte, Catherine Isaac, et al singing from the rafters about what a resounding success charter...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • Moment of Truth – September 15th – Auckland Town Hall
    Moment of Truth – September 15th – Auckland Town Hall...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • EXCLUSIVE: Dirt Alert! Are the Greens and Labour about to become the target...
    WE’VE SEEN IT ALL BEFORE. In 2005 pamphlets began appearing all over New Zealand attacking Labour and the Greens. For a couple of days both the parties targeted and the news media were flummoxed. Who was behind such an obviously...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • The Donghua Liu Affair: the Press Council’s decision
    . . 1. Prologue . The Donghua Liu Affair hit  the headlines on 18 June, with allegations that David Cunliffe wrote a letter in 2003,  on  behalf of  business migrant, Donghua Liu. Four days later, on Sunday 22 June, the...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • The difference between Cunliffe & Key in the debate
    It was with much interest that I watched the leaders debate on Thursday night.  I watched with an open mind, always happy to have my opinion changed.  Maybe John Key is all the wonderful things that many say about him,...
    The Daily Blog | 29-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Denis Tegg – When Did We Agree To Our Data Being Shared with ...
    New shocking evidence has emerged from Edward Snowden’s trove of documents about a program called ICREACH under which data collected by the GCSB is shared with 23 US spy agencies. Under new sharing agreements which appear to have commenced immediately after...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Why Internet MANA are the best political friends the Greens could ever get
    Metiria at last nights #GreenRoomNZ: standing on the shoulders and camera cases of giants  NZers, regardless of political spectrum or apathy level, have a wonderful beach cricket egalitarianism about us. If we can objectively conclude a winner, then that person...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Sick of the Sleaze? Protest against National’s dirty politics THIS SATURD...
    Sick of the Sleaze? Protest now dammit! Three weeks before the election, action is being taken across the country voicing a rejection of the National Government’s track record and direction. Rallies are being held in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Sir Edmund Thomas – Address at Nicky Hager public meeting
    I regard it as privilege to chair this public meeting. I have long had the greatest admiration for Nicky Hager’s work, and nothing I have read or heard in the media over the past week or so has caused me...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Labour and New Zealand Superannuation
    The kerfuffle in the wake of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics has had a detrimental impact on our discussion of economic policies. Signs are that the main beneficiaries of the dirty politics revelations will be Winston Peters and Colin Craig; certainly National suffered...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Mike Hosking and the Leader’s Debat...
    A few weeks ago I blogged that Mike Hosking was a terrible choice as moderator for the TV One Party Leader’s Debate, because he is so embarrassingly biased in favour of John Key. So I watched the show with curiosity,...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Democracy and Cancer: A critical analysis of Dirty Politics
    Twenty years ago, England’s renowned television playwright Denis Potter died of pancreatic cancer.  Readers may recall his two masterpieces ‘Pennies from Heaven’ and ‘The Singing Detective’.  During a final television interview with Melvyn Bragg, Potter declared that he had named...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Cunliffe beats Key in First Leaders debate
    I watched the First Leaders debate at the Green Party #GreenRoomNZ, they were very kind to include me and the atmosphere was great. The debate was a resounding victory to Cunliffe. He won Round 1, Round 2, Round 3 and...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • LIVE STREAM: The Green Room Leader’s Debate from 6:30pm
    The Green Room will be hosted by media commentator Russel Brown, and will feature Green Co-leaders Metiria Turei and Russel Norman responding to the debate live, along with comment from thought leaders and commentators. ‘The Green Room’ 6pm – 8.30pm...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • How many taxpayer funded staff does John Key need to prepare for a Leaders ...
    John Key is currently at the Auckland Stamford Plaza with 40 staff, 4 undercover police cars and an entire floor booked out in preparation for tonights Leader’s debate. Isn’t 40 staff including coms, flown up to Auckland for a debate...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • A brief word on National Party Rodney MP, Mark Mitchell
    MP considers legal action against Nicky HagerThe National MP says he is considering taking a defamation case after the September 20 election.“Someone needs to be held accountable,” he said. Oh really champ? Brothers and sisters, there is a long way...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Greens advertise on Whaleoil – but not on The Daily Blog?
    PaknSave have shown ethical compass and blocked adverts on Whaleoil, yet the Greens are advertising on Whaleoil, and not The Daily Blog? I would imagine there are far more potential Green voters on The Daily Blog then ever are on...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • It’s about the stupid economy stupid
    In focus group meetings, the sleepy hobbits of NZ by a staggering amount all believe that National are better economic stewards of the country than Labour, that’s why, instead of answering questions about blackmailing MPs, trawling brothels for dirt on...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • Labour Policy vs National Policy
    John Key’s favourite defence spin at the moment is people want to talk about policy and not hear answers on the ethics of trawling brothels, why Slater was given SIS information, blackmailing MPs into standing down, rigging candidate elections and hacking...
    The Daily Blog | 28-08
  • The Green Room live streamed on TDB 6.30pm tonight for First Leaders debate
    The ‘Green Room’ will stream 6.pm tonight on The Daily Blog during the TV One leaders’ debate.Use #GreenRoomNZ to join in. The Green Room will be hosted by media commentator Russel Brown, and will feature Green Co-leaders Metiria Turei and Russel Norman responding...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Manukau East – the next Coalition in action
    A couple of weeks ago I had the pleasure of opening Voice Up – a youth forum run by young people in Otara. I had been asked as Chair of the Local Board to set the scene, encouraging young people...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – The Big Bang Theory
    It’s a shame that it took a brain injury for me to start seeing things with such startling clarity. The realisation that lawyering, fishing, parenting, selling cars and racing yachts had common themes was stunning. Not perhaps as stunning as...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, how much Key aro...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • 5AA Australia – New Zealand’s Dirty Politics Aftermath and Polls
    MIL OSI – Source: Selwyn Manning – Analysis Headline: 5AA Australia – New Zealand’s Dirty Politics Aftermath and Polls 5AA Australia: On this week’s Across the Ditch bulletin on 5AA Australia, host Peter Godfery and Selwyn Manning discuss the aftermath...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • La’o Hamutuk calls for inquiry into Timor GAP ‘mismanagement’ of oil ...
    The Suai project on the South Coast … “liberated” land but confused communities.Photo: La’o Hamutuk David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. AN INDEPENDENT Timor-Leste development and social justice agency has called for an inquiry into the Timor GAP corporation...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • What Is Nicky Hager?
    WHAT WILL HISTORY MAKE of Nicky Hager? That slight, perpetually boyish, journalist who descends periodically, like the admonishing angel in a medieval mystery play, to trouble our consciences and wreak merry havoc with the orderly conduct of our political affairs....
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Can anyone in msm explain how after Dirty Politics that they all got played...
    Would you not think, that after reading Dirty Politics, that our mainstream media wouldn’t allow themselves to get tricked and played again by the VERY SAME discredited pundits? The best new feature on Radio NZ is their ‘Blog Watch’ and their...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Crusher Collins caught out lying about Privacy Commissioner – is this her...
    Crusher angry. Crusher smash own career. Crusher more angry. You would think that after getting outed as such a nasty, vicious piece of work in Dirty Politics, that Crusher would be scrambling to dial back the lies and manipulations. Apparently...
    The Daily Blog | 27-08
  • Cunliffe vs Key – first leaders debate
    This is your election ‘moderator’ – just one more reason an incoming Government need to sack everyone at TVNZ and reform it into an actual public broadcaster. The first leaders debate happens this Thursday, 7pm on TV One. I have...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – An Old and Honourable Profession
      When Dirty Politics started to reference an ex-prostitute I began to get antsy. My first response was “come on Nicky, we decriminalised in 2003. Its sex worker.” My second response was “Ah oh. Who was it and did they...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Bought and paid for: the dirty politics of climate denial
    Has climate denial in New Zealand been bought and paid for by corporate interests? We already know that the ACT Party’s routine denial is closely linked to the financial support the party receives from wealthy free market fundamentalist Alan Gibbs,...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • If the msm read The Daily Blog, THIS wouldn’t be a surprise – explainin...
    Yawn. How embarrassing for Hamish Rutherford and Andrea Vance, their breathless article today suggests that the idea of Labour and NZ First cutting a  deal over the buy back of assets  is some how new news. Silly mainstream media  journalists. If...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • How much tax does John Key pay compared to a minimum wage worker??
    Yesterday I did some calculations to find out what tax John Key pays compared to a worker on the minimum wage. And I put out this media release for the Mana Movement: MANA Movement Economic Justice spokesperson John Minto is...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Hip hop death threats – the selective outrage of our media
    PM death threat in hip hop songAn Auckland hip-hop crew slammed for releasing a song with lyrics that apparently include a threat to kill Prime Minister John Key are urging young people to enrol to vote. Kill The PM, by...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Watch Slater turn into Key right before your eyes
    Watch Slater turn into Key right before your eyes...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • I don’t always agree with Patrick Gower – but he didn’t deserve this!
    I don’t always agree with Patrick Gower – but he didn’t deserve this weird spear tackle from behind by his own company. I was listening to this interview at the time, and the awkwardness of it must be the worst...
    The Daily Blog | 26-08
  • Is it weird Radio NZ ban me yet still have….
    Is it weird Radio NZ ban me for life because I criticised the Prime Minister yet still have Matthew Hooton, David Farrar and Jordan Williams, 3 of the main protagonists revealed in Dirty Politics as part of their ongoing political...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Christchurch GCSB meeting – why mass surveillance matters in 2014
    This is the video for last weeks GCSB meeting in Christchurch. Don’t forget Nicky Hager’s public meeting Wednesday night in Auckland, TDB will live stream the event in the interests of our democracy. Broadcast starts 7.30pm here on TDB....
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Assange, Greenwald to appear at Town Hall meeting? + KDC is not the hacker ...
    Wikileaks founder and the engineer of revealing some of the largest abuses of power in the modern era, Julian Assange, is rumoured to be appearing at the September 15th Town Hall meeting. Assange would join award winning investigative journalist Glen...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Why Paula Bennett will be the next leader and Hooton throws the Prime Minis...
    I don’t think the public have any idea of the behind the scenes meltdown now occurring within National. There are plenty of decent right wingers who all have ethical standards who have looked at what their leaders have been doing and...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – That Awkward Feeling When Your Campaign Goe...
    Urgh. It’s a thankless and nearly impossible task politically firefighting some days. Somebody (who isn’t you, but who’s in your care, or whom you’ve got a close professional relationship with) does or says something stupid; somebody from the Media’s there...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Joe Trinder – Dirty politics goes viral
    Join the latest social networking craze this election that every Dog Cat and Jabba is putting on their facebook pages.     Joe Trinder – Ngāti Awa Born and born in Ōtepoti Ōtākou, Ex RNZN he is an Information Technology...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Blogwatch: An open letter to David Farrar: Please, be that guy
    Dear David, In light of  Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics, you wrote a blog entitled ‘Some changes on Kiwiblog’ and you suggested it was time to tighten up ship on your website, saying “I want to improve trust in myself,...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • What The Hell Was That! Reflections on the media’s coverage of the Intern...
    WHAT, EXACTLY, DO WE KNOW about the confrontation outside Internet-Mana’s campaign launch? Well, we know the news media was there in force. We also know Internet-Mana’s media person, Pam Corkery, blew her stack. We know that Corkery’s outburst led the...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • NZ First candidate – homophobic, bennie bashing anti-intellectual clown
    Oh God, apart from Ron Mark, Tracey Martin, Curwen Rolinson and Winston before midday, the woeful cavalcade of political circus freaks NZ First seem to attract has picked up another hitchhiker. This time Epsom candidate Cliff Lyon who said this about Labour… “If...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Nicky Hager Public Meeting LIVESTREAM on The Daily Blog 7.30pm Wednesday 27...
    As part of our commitment to the 2014 Election debate, The Daily Blog will Livestream the Nicky Hager public meeting in Auckland, 7.30pm live from the Mt Eden War Memorial this Wednesday on this site. Doors open at 7pm. It...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Opening Night. It’s like an opera!
    On Saturday night just gone, we collectively experienced one of the premier panegyrys of political pageantry in our three yearly electoral cycle. For one glorious weekend evening every three years, it’s not the All Blacks or some Super 14 team, or...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today, Unions – what ...
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 25-08
  • Timor-Leste’s Parliament handed ‘humiliating’ defeat over harsh media...
    East Timorese journalists raise their hands to approve the Timor-Leste JournalistCode of Ethics in October 2013. Photo: Tempo Semanal/Cafe Pacific   David Robie also blogs at Café Pacific. PACIFIC SCOOP reported this week that East Timor’s Appeal Court had scrapped...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • THIS is why we need a public broadcaster!
    The richest 20% of us in NZ own 70% of the wealth, with 18% in the hands of the second richest quintile, and 10% in the hands of the middle quintile. Just 2 per cent was owned by people in...
    The Daily Blog | 24-08
  • New Zealand’s biggest problems are Economic Issues
    New Zealand’s biggest problems are Economic Issues (41%) while the World’s most important problems are War & Terrorism (35%) just three weeks before NZ Election...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • NZ 2014 Leaders Index – week ending 29 August
    Below is iSentia’s first weekly Leaders’ Index, showing the relative amount of coverage of nine Party Leaders in the lead up to the National Election across news media and social media. We will produce these reports for the next three...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Judgment in Paki v Attorney General
    Tamaiti Cairns said that today’s Supreme Court decision is complicated, but, in essence opens the door for Maori people to go forward with their essential claims to water. Further work is required and Pouakani Trust will continue to pursue its...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Supreme Court Decision on Maori Water Rights
    “ … the Supreme Court refused to give Pouakani people what they asked for, but may have given them something much, much better instead. The Appellants had argued that the Crown’s ownership of the River was as a fiduciary for...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Leaders Dinner with Campbell Live, Dessert with RadioLIVE
    John Campbell is hosting Colin Craig, Winston Peters, Laila Harre, Metiria Turei, Peter Dunne, Jamie Whyte and Te Ururoa Flavell LIVE from Auckland’s Grand Harbour Restaurant on Wednesday 3 September at 7pm....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Credit unions in the political spotlight
    Dirty politics was put aside last night as senior politicians outlined their universal support for growing the cooperatively owned credit union and mutual building society sector in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Maryan Street on issues of importance to older people
    Liam Butler interviews Hon Maryan Street MP on issues of importance to older New Zealanders...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • John Hanita Paki and others v The Attorney-General
    JOHN HANITA PAKI, TORIWAI ROTARANGI, TAUHOPA TE WANO HEPI, MATIU MAMAE PITIROI AND GEORGE MONGAMONGA RAWHITI v THE ATTORNEY-GENERAL OF NEW ZEALAND FOR AND ON BEHALF OF THE CROWN (“THE CROWN”) (SC 7/2010)...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Last Nights Leaders Debate Drives The #nzpol Wordcloud
    Following last nights leaders debate on TV One between John Key and David Cunliffe, the data insight organisation Qrious collected all tweets that used the hashtag #nzpol from approximately the last 24 hours to produce this wordcloud....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Campaign suggests reason behind suicide gender statistics
    An online campaign about meaning and belonging has revealed an interesting connection with the difference in suicide rates between men and women....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Act Policy Vindicated by Sensible Sentencing Data
    ACT Leader Dr Jamie Whyte says the Sensible Sentencing Trust's just released analysis of 3 Strikes legislation "proves ACT was right to promote the policy and that it has made New Zealand a much safer country. The figures show beyond...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • “Robin Hood tax and other clever ways to help our kids”
    It’s time to talk about tax. Not just income tax but other kinds of tax too....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Cannabis Laws Breach Treaty – ALCP
    Cannabis prohibition is neo-colonial oppression resulting in the disproportionate imprisonment of Maori, the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party says....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • 2014 Variation Broadcasting Allocation Decision Released
    The Electoral Commission has released a variation decision on the amount of time and money allocated to political parties for the broadcasting of election programmes for the 2014 General Election....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • New Zealand Shoppers- Demand Blue Tick Accredited Products
    Following ongoing concerns surrounding the issue of animal welfare in farming, particularly in the layer and broiler chicken sectors, the RNZSPCA is now asking consumers to purchase only eggs, pork, turkey and chicken that have been Accredited by the Blue...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • EDS welcomes Labour’s Environment Policy
    The Environmental Defence Society has welcomed Labour’s Environment Policy which recognises that New Zealand cannot have a healthy economy without a healthy environment....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Candidate calls for an end to institutional racism
    29 AUGUST 2014 Tāmaki Makaurau candidate, Rangi McLean has spoken up in support of Irie Te Wehi-Takerei who was wrongfully accused of shoplifting at a Warehouse store in Manukau. "Over the last month, two different supermarkets have been...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Making tertiary education more accessible to Māori
    29 August 2014 The Māori Party launched its tertiary education policy today at Te Huinga Tauira o Te Mana Ākonga, the national hui for the Māori Teritary Students Association in Palmerston North. Te Tai Hauāuru candidate Chris McKenzie says the...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • NZ Sign Language programmes receives $11 million boost
    Deaf Aotearoa are thrilled with Education minister Hekia Parata’s announcement this week that $11 million in funding will go towards a range of New Zealand Sign Language initiatives, including First Signs – a programme that involves sign language...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Abortion violates the Human Rights of Fathers
    Fathers1Right to Life is concerned at the glaring imbalance that exists in law, in regard to the rights of men to defend the lives of the children they have fathered. Fatherhood commences at conception. Children in the womb, just like...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Hundreds to join march against male violence in Auckland CBD
    Hundreds of supporters are expected to join the 'Take Back the Night' march through central Auckland streets tomorrow night in solidarity with making the streets safe for women and the rainbow community to walk without fear of male violence....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Classic example of need for Conservative policy
    The Conservative Party Justice Spokesman, Garth McVicar believes the sentencing of killer Aaron McDonald is a classic example of why an overhaul of the parole and sentencing system is required.”...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Greens & Labour Politicising Bullying in Schools
    Family First NZ says that both the Greens and Labour are wanting to politicise and sexualise school children under the guise of bullying programmes rather than deal with the school bullying issue as it should be dealt with....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • Wellington National Is Not Our Future Rally 30/8/14
    Thousands of people will march and rally at National is not our Future events on Saturday. Auckland is the main rally centre with supportive actions in Wellington, Dunedin, Christchurch and Hamilton. In Wellington, marchers will assemble at Te Papa...
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • EPA grants marine consent for OMV exploration well
    The Environmental Protection Authority has granted a marine consent to OMV New Zealand Ltd for its Whio-1 exploration well in the Taranaki Basin....
    Scoop politics | 29-08
  • First anniversary of the horrific chemical attacks on Syria
    Members of the Syrian Community and friends are commemorating the first anniversary of the horrific chemical attacks on Syria, in Aotea Square on Saturday 30 August 2014, between 11-3 pm. The Assad regimes chemical attacks on al Ghouta were responsible...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Anniversary of the NZ Occupation of German Samoa
    Today, 29th August 2014, marks the 100 years centenary of the occupation of Samoa by New Zealand forces at the request of the British empire, ending the German rule of Samoa. It is also the starting point for the special...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Submissions sought on mosquito repellent
    The Environmental Protection Authority is calling for submissions on a portable mosquito repellent for use outdoors. The repellent consists of a strip impregnated with metofluthrin, a substance from the pyrethroid family....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Spot the difference – the leaders debate
    I watched the Leaders' debate last night and was struck by the fact that John Key accepted all of David Cunliffe's basic assumptions. For example, he did not say that the government should not tell farmers who they could sell...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Colin Craig’s tax figures do not add up and are dishonest
    “Colin Craig’s tax plan is to have two rates of income tax: 0% up to $20,000 and 25% above that. This will leave a $6.4 billion hole in the budget even before the new spending proposed by the Conservatives. The...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Dirty Politics Impacts National Party Support
    Media Release – For Immediate Release Dirty Politics Impacts National Party Support Support for National has dropped by 4.3% to 50.8%, the latest stuff.co.nz / Ipsos political poll shows....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Labour’s environment policy welcomed
    The independent conservation organisation Forest & Bird says that overall the Labour Party’s newly released environment policy would go a long way towards protecting New Zealand’s natural heritage....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • National: Not our Future Marches across New Zealand
    Three weeks before the election, action is being taken across the country voicing a rejection of the National Government's track record and direction. Rallies are being held in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin to oppose National's...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Tune in to tonight’s debate from 7pm
    The countdown is on! You can watch the first leader’s debate for 2014 tonight, 7pm, on TV One ....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Gamblefree Day 1 September
    It's Gamblefree Day this Monday 1 September, the national awareness day for problem gambling in New Zealand. While traditionally celebrated on the first day of September, many events and activities are held both before and after this day to raise...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Success through captioning should be a given as a Right
    Success through captioning should be a given as a Right per the Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Alcohol Marketing Committee Questions Government’s Motives
    An Independent Expert Committee on Alcohol Advertising and Sponsorship (IECAAS) has been formed out of concern amongst alcohol and public health researchers about the government’s Ministerial Forum on Alcohol Advertising and Sponsorship (MFAAS)....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • How Much Higher Can Auckland Prices Go?
    National's plan to liberalise the use of Kiwisaver funds and its proposal to raise ts cheap "Welcome Home" loan thresholds to help buyers purchase a new home has been welcomed by home building companies but attacked as a "welfare scheme...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • OPC submission period extended
    We have extended the submission period for the modified reassessment of a bee control affecting five organophosphate and carbamate insecticides (APP202142)....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Vinay Deobhakta struck off roll of barristers and solicitors
    The New Zealand Lawyers and Conveyancers Disciplinary Tribunal has ordered former Tauranga lawyer Vinay Deobhakta to be struck off the roll of barristers and solicitors....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Major parties to front up for Climate Voter election debate
    New Zealand’s main political parties will take part in ‘The Great Climate Voter Debate’ on September 3....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Family violence… too big to be ignored
    As Annah Stretton gears up for her New Zealand Fashion Week show on Thursday she is utilizing her spotlight to help change the face of family violence in this country saying “the problem is far too big to ignore”....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Candidate’s SOS to northern Maori voters: Save our seats!
    (Extract from address by Rev Te Hira Paenga to Kura Hourua Maori Political Leaders hui, in Whangarei this evening)....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Mary O’Neill to Stand for the Alliance in Napier
    The Alliance Party has confirmed Mary O’Neill as the Alliance candidate in the Napier Electorate for the 2014 election....
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • TONIGHT [28/8/14]: The Great Political Comedy Debate
    It's a night for debating. You could stay home frowning at tonight's Leaders debate, or laugh it up with us at BATS!...
    Scoop politics | 28-08
  • Cunliffe against personal responsibility over billboards
    The accusation by David Cunliffe that the Conservative Party is subscribing to a surveillance society by protecting its billboards via the use of motion sensor cameras reveals an anti-personal responsibility position by the about-to-be-retired Leader...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Groundbreaking health and climate conference
    The World Health Organization (WHO) is holding its first conference on climate change and health at its headquarters in Geneva this week, with New Zealand health experts in attendance....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Te Tai Tokerau Party
    Last night at the Leadership Academy of Company A debate Clinton Dearlove announced the creation of a new political party supported by Whanau and Hapu....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Significant fallout from Dirty Politics allegations
    Dirty politics ... costing National up to 3.8% of its pre-publication support Large numbers of New Zealanders are aware of and talking about the issues raised as a result of the publication of Nicky Hager’s book, Dirty Politics, according to...
    Scoop politics | 27-08
  • Colin Craig is “deluded and dangerous” – Act
    “Colin Craig is proposing a radical transformation of our constitution. The Conservatives are proposing to overthrow of one hundred and fifty odd years of parliamentary democracy and replace it with binding referenda” said ACT Leader Dr Jamie Whyte....
    Scoop politics | 27-08
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