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Trends

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, May 29th, 2013 - 175 comments
Categories: election 2014, polls - Tags:

So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.

polls vs pre-election polls

Hmm. So, National – which won a one seat majority for the Right in 2011 has lost support since the election in every poll.

Also, with a single exception (Roy Morgan in 2008) every pre-election poll has overpolled National in the past two elections. When you correct for that, you get a surprisingly tight spread between the polls. The raw results have a 5% spread, the corrected ones just a 2.2% spread, centred around 45%.

Halfway through their second (and, if you believe Lusk/Slater last) Key’s National have lost an average of 3.4% in the polls.

45% is the danger zone for National. In this position, they might govern if they can cut a deal with Winston (if he gets back in). If they continue to lose support and end up in the low 40s, then even that won’t save them.

Of course, it’s far from a done deal. Shearer is the, um, the key. If the Left is to govern, people have to see him as a PM. He’s got better in recent months. Here’s hoping he gets a lot better in the next 18.

Bonus for poll-lovers. Everyone knows that only the Roy Morgan is regular enough to talk about trends (RM is also the most accurate on average in its pre-election polls). Here’s how that trend is looking:

roy morgans to May 2013

175 comments on “Trends”

  1. DrakeNZ 1

    I’m not sure if you can compare a pre-election poll (when attention is focused fully on party policies and their leaders) to a mid-way poll. Just wait until John Key goes on TV and debates head to head with Shearer.
    PS – when is the next roy morgan out – tomorrow?

    • bad12 1.1

      Tell me something, after Phill Goff got so comprehensively dealt to by Slippery John Key in the 2011 television debates, (according to the pundits and the idiots that think someone yelling repeatedly ”show me the money” is a comprehensive victory that is), how many % points did National leap up in the following polls,

      Zilch actually, nada, zero, none, most of the polling was of a National Government not needing coalition partners, so if we are to take anything from the polls vis a vis the television debates in 2011 we can only conclude that had the election campaign not been of an abbreviated nature National would surely have been in the position of actually ‘needing’ the Maori Party to govern as opposed to having that particular party as mere lap-dogs consigning themselves to electoral oblivion for the baubles of Ministerial office,

      Given that at November 2014 the Maori Party are to be given an unkind message from the electorate i would dare suggest that 2014 will be an election of a % point either way and National gaining a third term will rely on NZFirst regaining seats in the Parliament and being willing to support a third term National Government, (neither of those propositions being guaranteed),

      Labour/Green need only go into the 2014 election showing a clear intention to restructure the minimum wage into the guaranteed living wage in it’s first term of Government, (a rise of $1.50 an hour over a 3 year period), and the rout of National back to the opposition benches where they belong should be a given…

      • mickysavage 1.1.1

        I would disagree with you about the debates Bad12. Apart from the theatrics surrounding the “show me the money” I thought Goff performed very well in the debates.

        The failure in the campaign was in part the failure to back Goff up. He did not appear on the billboards and the message given by this was that even the party did not think he was going to succeed.

        Of course those who made this decision should have been the subject of a rigorous review but this did not happen.

        • bad12 1.1.1.1

          Have a closer read micky and you will find that you are not disagreeing with me at all….

          • mickysavage 1.1.1.1.1

            Yep right you are.

            You may also be right about the super policy. It was a hell of a stretch of a policy and there is a virtue in these times of unemployment in letting the elderly retire a bit earlier so that a young person can then get a job.

            It is frustrating that labour is trying to have decisions made today about something that will only become important in a decade’s time. National’s approach of not giving a toss gives them a political advantage.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.1.1.1

              An extra couple of % of top tax rate and corporate tax would allow the super age to be lowered, in addition to funnelling all KiwiSaver funds into the Cullen Fund.

              For some reason that sounds more like a “Labour Party” stance to me, than trying to make older people work longer and staying in jobs that young people would be better off doing.

              • TheContrarian

                “An extra couple of % of top tax rate”

                I’m on the top rate and paying a few % more would be fine by me.

                • Lanthanide

                  I’d like to see it at 35% @ $80k an a higher rate introduced around $120-150k, like Australia.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Hey guys your comments mean a lot as I know that you will be personally affected by these suggestions.

                    And potentially a higher rate again at 10x the median working income, so at $410,000 pa. or thereabouts.

                    Alternatively, you have a generous tax free protion of your income, and then get taxed more heavily above that at a flat rate, to prevent people gaming the system with their accountants.

                • north

                  Contrary One. Good man/woman !

        • bad12 1.1.1.2

          My view on what cost Labour in 2011 was having Phill Goff open the election campaign promising to raise the age of eligibility for NZ Super, convincing the electorate of such a necessity would best be left in my opinion to a third term Government after a very long conversation with the electorate…

        • DrakeNZ 1.1.1.3

          I agree – Phil Goff is a seasoned debater and generally performed well against Key. He only stumbled in the initial debate which (I think) was not fully televised and there was time for damage control. I think Shearer vs Key might be an entirely different story.

        • TheContrarian 1.1.1.4

          “He did not appear on the billboards and the message given by this was that even the party did not think he was going to succeed.”

          I agree – it also made it about personalities when Labour were desperately trying to not make it about personalities given Key was so high in preferred PM.

      • futurama 1.1.2

        It would appear that if you want to be the govt have the party 100% behind the leader because it doesnt seem to matter how many lies you tell after the election you still got 3yrs to sell some more and the polls seem to reflect that so basically the system hasnt got much integrity

  2. Of course, it’s far from a done deal. Shearer is the, um, the key. If the Left is to govern, people have to see him as a PM. He’s got better in recent months. Here’s hoping he gets a lot better in the next 18.

    I think people get too worried over leader popularity polls. Shearer has another year to become more of a leader figure, and the most popular leader doesn’t determine who wins an election (NZ isn’t a Presidential system -even though the MSM want it to be). A much more likely scenario is that Mana, the Greens, NZ First, and I have to say it (since Peter Dunne is a political survivor) United Future will make up the extra seats; while the Labour party will a slight lead or National will have a slight lead.

    • bad12 2.1

      Aha, given the anti-Labour stance of the Maori Party and for a moment putting aside the fact that they hold 3 electoral seats Phill Goff who nobody really wanted to be the Prime Minister came within a whisker of beating the most popular, (spit), Prime Minister for many years…

      • kiwicommie 2.1.1

        The Maori party is dying a slow death, they would be lucky to keep two seats, let alone their third. However I wouldn’t rely on the Maori party keeping with National, they can switch parties like they did when Labour lost out last time.

      • Colonial Viper 2.1.2

        bad12 – that’s why I was amazed when the Labour caucus seemed so determined to replace Goff as Leader asap. Goff had literally lost the election by just one or two seats to a first term tory Government (traditionally impossible to unseat), and a huge part of that could be pinned on Labour campaign strategists (Ducky and co.) not coping with a true MMP campaign, and not pushing back against the prevalent media meme of “it’s a foregone conclusion”.

        So Labour’s next move? Push Goff aside and put in place a rookie with 5% of the experience and political ability.

        Also speaking of trends, shit the trend was looking upwards and good for Labour between Aug 2009 and Oct 2010. How did that go for Labour in 2011?

        • Tim 2.1.2.1

          Just curious ….. does anyone know where Tony Timms stands on the current state of the Labour Party?
          I’m just interested because I’ve watched so many trad ‘stalwart’ LP people relinquish their principles once positions of comfort have been attained, and I’m well familiar with TT since ‘post Onslow College’ days.
          It’s interesting too when one listens to “from the Right & from the Right” to see how sacrificing basic principles are put down to airy fairy things like ‘modernisation’ and ‘economic reality’.

  3. Winston Smith 3

    Mid way through the 2nd term and even after the smears thrown about by the Greens and National (and John Key) are still massively popular

    But whatever you do don’t get rid of Shearer because hes your best chance of winning the next election ;)

    • It isn’t even election year, it is like claiming Helen Clark would be out of a job in mid 2007. If you want to be objective about polling, you won’t know who will likely win till the few months or weeks before election day; and then you have the coalition talks that can go anywhere.

    • RedBlooded 3.2

      Awh Winston, you’re such a Hoot. Yawn

  4. Blue 4

    It’s quite obvious that National has lost support – all the Key brainfades and dodgy casino deals have damaged him.

    But people are still left with that awful decision – Key vs. Shearer. In such a situation, they prefer to go with the dodgy liar over the incompetent fool.

    It’s time to face facts – National is not going to lose enough support while Shearer remains Labour’s leader.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      To rephrase your point, yes National will lose support over this term and all their dodgy deals – but they may not lose any votes, and certainly those votes may go over to the Greens and not Labour.

      • kiwicommie 4.1.1

        Yep Labour would win through a coalition arrangement. I wouldn’t say the loss in 2008, and again in 2011 was a good thing, but at least it evened out the votes among the center-left, so that a blow to a single party won’t bring the house of cards crashing down like it did in 2008; when center-left or left wing voters lost enthusiasm, and given no alternative party to Labour (as they saw it) stopped voting. Fortunately now they do have alternatives to vote for, and there are multiple center-left parties that can win votes and electorates in 2014, whereas in 2008 only Labour really had the capacity to fight for seats in a big way. Edit: But that isn’t to say that Labour can’t win back votes, and bring the center-left over the line if it works hard enough in 2014.

        • Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1

          I would underline the fact that Labour is a socially liberal but economically centrist capitalist party. They are not a left wing party in anyway except for some historical echoes. For instance there is no suggestion that they would significantly increase benefit levels to above the poverty line, bring back penal rates for overtime, restore free education for all etc.

          As a centrist party they will certainly take some actions to curb extremes of corporate profiteering and worker exploitation, etc. But that’s merely a moderate/centrist thing to do.

          • kiwicommie 4.1.1.1.1

            Labour has done things that at times can be called center-right and dead center, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Greens, and the rest can only really have a say with Labour; as National is far too center-right or right wing to even listen. I would agree that Labour is an economically centrist capitalist party, but it still has a center-left wing to the party; and it depends on the electorate – some are more conservative than others.

      • BM 4.1.2

        National voters will not vote green.
        They may vote for Winston first though.

        • Gareth 4.1.2.1

          As a matter of fact, my father in law who has been a National voter his whole life has become so disgusted with the Nanny State policies of National that he announced about a month ago that he’s switching his vote over to the Left next year. He can’t stomach voting Labour though so he’s going to vote Green. He and his conservative mates think Winston is a great laugh, but they wouldn’t vote for him.

          • BM 4.1.2.1.1

            I find that hard to believe.
            He’s voting green because National is too nanny state? to vote for a party that wants to control the size of your shower head or what type of light bulb you’re allowed to have.

            Either you’re making it up or your father in law is a complete idiot.

            • Gareth 4.1.2.1.1.1

              Neither. He is more concerned about taking away the right to go to court, railroading the Christchurch plan through and ignoring the high dollar (he runs an export business) than worrying about trivia like shower heads and light bulbs. Seriously, we turned off analogue tv and went digital. What’s the issue with upgrading to more efficient light bulbs??

              • Tim

                Maybe your father in law has had the same experiences as I have with NZ’s ‘right of centre’ parties over the years:
                a bunch of crass young Nats (a la Aaron Gilmore) learning how to become gauche old NActs (a la Tony Ryall). The only ones I ever had any time for did the smart thing and got the hell out.

            • Gareth 4.1.2.1.1.2

              Neither. He is more concerned about taking away the right to go to court, railroading the Christchurch plan through and ignoring the high dollar (he runs an export business) than worrying about trivia like shower heads and light bulbs. Seriously, we turned off analogue tv and went digital. What’s the issue with upgrading to more efficient light bulbs?

            • Gareth 4.1.2.1.1.3

              Apologies for the double post. The website said my first one was rejected.

              He also worries about the current account deficit and recognises that it’s mostly profits going overseas, and so thinks that selling state owned assets is a stupid idea. He acknowledges that he was in favour of it last time it happened, but unlike some he learns from his mistakes.

              He still likes all the labour law changes and has no problem with the WINZ stuff that’s happened. He’s still a conservative and we have great arguments about all that. But he’s pissed off enough at National about the bigger issues and thinks that Russell Norman has made enough sense that small manufacturer/exporters can give him a go.

              [lprent: moderated? spam? server message? browser message? Moderation queues the message for a moderator to look at. Spam may do that as well for me to look at or it just flushes it as being from a bot (happens incredibly seldom for humans). It could also be a server message saying that your message has failed - easy to see and it would say "lprent@primary.geek.nz". It could also be your browser telling you that it was unable to send it - usually because of connectivity problems.

              But there is no "rejected". There are just queues or errors. ]

              • felix

                Sounds like your father in law is a damn sight smarter than BM.

              • Gareth

                I’m not sure what was giving me the error I’m sorry. I put it down to my second post being written from Chrome on an iPhone.

                • lprent

                  Most likely the connection in that case. I never had much luck with iPhones on posts with large numbers of comments.

                  • I found that the iphone/ipod updates by Apple over the years have made accessing the web a lot harder, rather than easier. It usually just randomly quits after you finish reading a few posts on wordpress or blogger.

          • Pete 4.1.2.1.2

            My father, who grew up a rural, South Island pakeha and is in his 70s, used to be a staunch National supporter. Then he switched to Labour. He now intends to vote for Mana next year as he thinks Hone is the only one in Parliament who really seems to give a damn about the marginalised.

            • Colonial Viper 4.1.2.1.2.1

              Wow. Just wow.

            • kiwicommie 4.1.2.1.2.2

              he now intends to vote for Mana next year as he thinks Hone is the only one in Parliament who really seems to give a damn about the marginalised.

              Well that’s true, he does actually care. He might be an MP but he hasn’t allowed that to disconnect him from the community, nor has he become an elitist like a lot of National party MP’s.

  5. tsmithfield 5

    Its a wierd world when righties are more supportive of the Labour leader than lefties.

    • tarkwin 5.1

      At least Labour has a proud history. it would be a real shame if the Greens destoy them.

      • AmaKiwi 5.1.1

        “At least Labour has a proud history. it would be a real shame if the Greens destroy them.”

        Proud history! Since the last election their behavior has been disgraceful.

    • Clockie 5.2

      It’s called concern trolling..

    • lprent 5.3

      That has been a pretty consistent pattern for David Shearer.. Perhaps you could speculate why? :twisted:

      Personally I think it has to do with left-wing activists who have been volunteering for decades having more experience with the requirements of on-the-ground left wing campaigning politics than either right wingers, political media commentators, or even inexperienced left-wing candidates parachuted in from the parliamentary staff.

  6. Sanctuary 6

    There has to be some disquiet at the failure of Labour to make a clean poll breakthough in the face of a series of scandals that should have seriously dented National’s poll lead.

    Looking back, I think most people wanted Goff gone because they thought it would achieve two outcomes: Firstly, it would signal a clean break with the Clark era, and help unhook Labour from the baggage of nine years of government – like the way Clark herself drew a line under the the Douglas years and repudiated radical reform as part of rebuilding trust with the electorate. Secondly, a new leader would give people who had switched votes to National a face-saving reason to switch back to Labour.

    Labour has perhaps achieved the first, but not the second. Everyone knew Shearer was unprepared, but I think people probably thought he might prove another Lange, like Athena leaping from Zeus’s head, fully grown and armed. He has been a slow learner. He is still basically an inarticulate and bumbling communicator in the media. He comes across on TV like3 he doesn’t really have much idea what he is talking about. Cunliffe or Robertson would both be far more articulate. A leader coup engineered by Robertson now, with Cunliffe as co-conspirator and elevated to the deputy leadership to ensure the new leadership team enjoyed 100% support under the new voting system, would energize the party base and provide an articulate new set of faces at the top.

    I thhink also that the Shearer/Cunliffe leadership battle itself has proven to have done more long term damage to the relationship between the party membership and the caucus old guard than was assumed at the time, reinforcing the need to rehabilitate Cunliffe in some way.

    Finally, much as Shearer has proved to be a major disappointment, I think a fair whack of the blame for Labours failure to make a poll breakthrough can be sheeted home to the senior caucus, which seems to me to be to complacent and self-serving to be an effective opposition. To use a rugby analogy, there are to many Ali Williams, Andrew Hores and Brad Thornes in Labour’s caucus whose best political days are in the past and they simply lack the energy and desperation a hungrier – and younger – caucus would bring to opposition.

    Plenty of voters are now looking for a reason to swtch votes to Labour. The party needs to provide an energetic and articulate leader to give them that reason and to snsure the sort of accoutability in his or her caucus that will see the underperformers quietly moved on – Mallard to be proomised the role of high commissioner in London, King to run an SOE, that sort of thing.

    • BM 6.1

      No you guys only represent minority groups and have no interest in middle NZ.
      That’s why you poll so slow.

    • If any change in leadership is to happen, it is best to wait till after the 2014 election, making any moves now would be too unsettling. Shearer might not have overwhelming trust behind him, but he isn’t a bad leader, even if you could have a better one.

      • David H 6.2.1

        And when the Debates start…….. Yeah Not a bad leader will not cut it. Labour need someone who can call Shonkey on every lie, every brain fade, and have the facts, and the ability to explain them in Proper English not political doubletalk! But Shearer??? The election will be over before he finishes a sentence.

        • kiwicommie 6.2.1.1

          *shrug* You mean another one those two party debates, that basically shut out the rest of the opposition, and ask one sided questions, that always put the government in a good light? Not sure whether participating in such a debate is a good idea, but even if he did terrible in a debate, the entire election isn’t resting on a single party – however there is no evidence that debates so far have made Shearer any better (or worse off), so it won’t influence polls.

    • There has to be some disquiet at the failure of Labour to make a clean poll breakthough in the face of a series of scandals that should have seriously dented National’s poll lead.

      It just has made a clean poll breakthrough, and this shouldn’t be the last of bad polls for National: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/new-zealand-voting-intention-may29-201305290604

  7. King Kong 7

    Merging with the Greens has been a terrible idea for Labour. Why would you cede control of your policy to a party with who are three times less popular than you?

    I have said it before, but if Labour wants to become more popular then they need to go to the mattresses against the Greens in a real way. By pointing out that the Greens are incompetent losers, they will drag back some of the naive lefties who have started to believe the Greens twaddle plus it will calm the horses with the centre who already know that the Greens are nuts and will be relieved to know that Labour realises this too.

    When it comes to coalition building, even if Labour has been giving them a kicking, where the hell else will the Greens go?

    • The Green movement is growing in terms of political voice, this is happening in Europe and Australia, and will only continue to grow. For Labour to ignore the Greens would make them as foolish as National and Act is to ignore or deny climate change, Labour and the Greens co-operate on some policies because they have merit. Labour as a centrist party will always have the issue of either appearing too center-left or as just staying too much in the center, however if the Labour party turned center-right (like the MSM want it to) it runs a far greater risk of losing support (as then voters see Labour as no different from National – thus don’t bother to vote).

      • King Kong 7.1.1

        From my understanding, support for the Greens around the world is seriously contracting.

        I am not suggesting that Labour ignore the Greens, in fact quite the opposite.

        They should be drawing attention to every bit of stupidity the Greens spout rather than giving them an easy ride.

        This is a war that Labour will win (because the Greens are total fags once you give them a bloody nose) and it will make Shearer and Labour look like competent winners. These are very sexy traits to the electorate.

        • infused 7.1.1.1

          You are correct that Greens are losing support around the world.

        • kiwicommie 7.1.1.2

          From my understanding, support for the Greens around the world is seriously contracting.

          Even the UK (which has a stronger center-right political system) has a growing Green party, so does Australia, and Germany has had a strong one for a while, as for trying to attack the Greens a lot, that is a waste of time. Green economics and such is a growing popular fad (like the peace movement was in the 1960s onwards), it might make you popular to some, but to the mainstream it just makes you look just as bad as the fringe of the green movement i.e. the climate change denier.

          Nor has attacking the Greens won Labour any favours in the polls, attacking the Greens is the best strategy for National, but it is a double edged sword – on one hand you show the electorate you ‘aren’t a crazy greenie’, but on the other you show you are out of touch with popular issues like climate change and lose votes of people that don’t so much care about green policies, as keeping up with the changing political climate.

          • BM 7.1.1.2.1

            Climate change is not a popular issue.
            Most believe it to be a pile of horse shit and a sneaky way to grab taxes and instill lefty policy.

            • Dv 7.1.1.2.1.1

              Many believed you would sail of the edge of the world too.

            • kiwicommie 7.1.1.2.1.2

              If you are talking about the carbon tax, I don’t agree with it – the carbon credit system has far too many loopholes. How you can’t think climate change is a popular issue I have no idea, even China that has to be one of the worlds biggest polluters is introducing policies about climate change.

              • BM

                I take it you’re quite young.
                Young people,yes very important issue, it’s been drummed into you all the way through your schooling, so it would be hard not to be passionate about climate change.
                Once you leave that school setup and gain a bit of experience you’ll realize not is all as it seems.

                When I was younger, the big thing was nuclear war,nuclear pollution we’re all going to die, ban nukes etc, down with nuclear anything.

                • tracey

                  It was nuclear war and nuclear accidents (which you call pollution) and while that was going on you were at a Springbok rugby match BM?

                  As classified documents have come out from the US relating tot he 50’s, 60’s and 70’s, and more recently Reagan’s years people were right to be scared of nuclear war given the ideologies of both the USA and Russian leadership.

                  I find your brand of blithe acceptance of things at face value (if it is from MR key et al) kind of scary. I shudder to think you are recommending that to young people as the result of “experience”. It sounds to me like you may well be the poster-boy for the modern propaganda. Feed the people sound bites, rely on their apathy to look no deeper and quietly roger them while they dream of being int he 1%. Politics by PR( read manipulation). I wonder, do you really believe, and can back with solid evidence, that NZ is a better place today (economically) or otherwise than 5 years ago?

                  • BM

                    Is anywhere in the world a better place today (economically) or otherwise than 5 years ago?
                    From what I’ve read, we’re doing really well compared to others.
                    Thank goodness we had National at the helm.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Anywhere? You mean like our two closest trading partners, for example, who grew throughout the whole period?

                      From what I’ve read of what you’ve written, your opinions have a serious problem with reality, which, if your continual use of weasel words is anything to go by, you appear to be aware of at some subconscious level.

            • One Anonymous Knucklehead 7.1.1.2.1.3

              “Most”.

              It’s safe to ignore this innumerate garbage. 3% (Scientists) is not “most”. Neither is 12% (US citizens).

              The good thing about Climatology, though, is that it isn’t founded on belief.

            • tracey 7.1.1.2.1.4

              LOLOLOL @ “most believe”. Evidence?? is yMr key ying when he says he believes climate change is happening?

              • BM

                Key’s a politician.
                His support base will vote for him no matter what, he’s just trying to appeal to a wider audience, grab a few more voters in the center left.

                • tracey

                  Agree. I know someone who says she would vote for father Christmas if he were the leader of the national party. God forbid he ever do something like sign a painting for chairty… THAT is a big no-no amongst his suppoprt base.

                • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                  Would that be the “wider audience”, “most” of whom believe Climatology “to be a pile of horseshit”?

                  Your lies are falling off.

                  • BM

                    There’s two types of climate change.
                    Natural climate change and Man made climate change.

                    Everyone knows the climate is always changing, it’s the man made climate change movement that people are finding a bit whiffy.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      “People” – yes, 3% of scientists publishing in the field and 12% of US citizens, for example.

                      You lack a cogent, intelligent argument, you see. Also evidence, credibility, integrity and cognitive ability.

                    • McFlock

                      OAK – bm might lack those things, but other than that their statements are 100% reliable :)

            • JonL 7.1.1.2.1.5

              “The 5 characteristics of global warming consensus denial
              All movements that reject an overwhelming scientific consensus show 5 inevitable characteristics. They celebrate fake experts, cherry pick the data, argue using misrepresentation and logical fallacies, indulge in conspiracy theories, and demand impossible expectations of what research can deliver.

              http://skepticalscience.com/5-characteristics-consensus-denial.html

        • tracey 7.1.1.3

          if it is contracting it may corrolate to an increase in green policies by mainstream parties.

          I can see why Key smears the Greens, they are calling English’s increasing deficit and increasing borrowing what it is and not pretending it isn’t, as English and Key do.

  8. Enough is Enough 8

    My concern is Labour has laid out there major policies (Kiwi Build, NZ Power, CGT) and gained next to no traction. There is not a lot of room in the coffers for them to lay down any other big ticket items and if they do, they will get the juvenile response from Key “show us the money”.

    Where does that leave us?

    If things stay the same we are going to sleep walk to defeat.

    • I find that political parties still haven’t adequately attacked ‘austerity economics’, as a result many voters till believe that ‘government debt’ is more of an issue than weak economic growth, high unemployment, rising poverty, high household debt, low salaries, and low wage growth. Actually taking on debt, in order to put in place stimulus measures, build vital infrastructure (like rail and a new internet cable) and create jobs, is better than just borrowing to get a surplus, that might not even happen.

      • Ennui 8.1.1

        In a world where “growth” was possible your argument would have merit. In our real world where the creation of credit (and hence the ability to take on and pay debt) is curtailed (forever as a general trend) neither stimulation policies or austerity will suffice. Both are dead ends.

        The unfortunate aspect of the above is that the electorate is conditioned to “delivery” based upon future payment of debt. They are conditioned to the concept of perpetual growth. In the mind of the electorate supply is perpetual and infinite, all they squabble over is who gets what, and who profits from this. This is the general tenet on this blog.

        What I am indicating is that Shearer versus Key, Left versus Right is of absolutely no consequence as the delivery will have the same result (no joy, it wont work for either). The REAL question that the electorate and the politicians do not want to hear and face, is how to manage contraction? How to allocate pain and dislocation?

        National of course don’t care, their sponsors own pretty much everything so they can sit on top of a shrinking mountain and be the last fat people on the whole pyramid. Labour conversely neither recognise the new reality, or have a clue how to sell it to the electorate.

        • kiwicommie 8.1.1.1

          neither stimulation policies or austerity will suffice. Both are dead ends.

          I disagree there, stimulus and the bailout worked in the United States, and don’t confuse stimulus with just ‘printing money’, it means putting money into R&D as well as growing small businesses. Austerity doesn’t work as it just eliminates the welfare state, and cuts government budgets in all the areas that generate growth such as in education, healthcare, and unemployment measures i.e. up-skilling. I am not saying that you can borrow all the time, as National is finding out you can only so far in terms of borrowing till you reach a point where the government can’t run a surplus.

          In New Zealand’s case, government reached 240% of GDP in debt in the 1920s or 1930s, and it has reached 50% as well, so government debt really isn’t the issue here, the issue is actually the high household debt, and weakness in terms of small business growth, as well as low salaries and low wages not keeping pace with costs such as electricity, housing, childcare; to the point that households have very little money to save, and the poor are kept in poverty (with very few breaking out of it) – thus adding to a decline in tax revenue.

          No one really knows what to do, it is a mid-point in economics. Neo-liberalism has failed, and so has Keynesianism in many areas, but just because Keynesianism failed is no reason to run after backers of austerity that ignore the government directed economic boom from the 1950s to the 1960s and mid 1970s in Europe, and elsewhere. ;)

          • Ennui 8.1.1.1.1

            KC, nothing you say above is untrue in the conventional sense. The issue is that they are predicated by growth and resource availability: these can and will go in reverse effectively stuffing up all you suggest.

            Rather than me argue the validity of my statement (I am off to lunch yippee) please have a read of Nicole Foss on theautomaticearth.com (or if you are in Wellington she is talking tomorrow night)…she is a very good starting point for the issues of peak resources and financial impacts.

            • kiwicommie 8.1.1.1.1.1

              Don’t live in New Zealand, but I am going to stick with Krugman. I never said growth or resources are infinite, and I really don’t see how that has anything do with austerity economics, nor anything I have said. As far as population, it is declining in the first world, and rising in the third world, if you are arguing that there will be a struggle for resources in the future, that seems to be ignoring that most economic growth is turning away from factory production and into the information age, that means that in the future most growth will be driven by technology in robotics, medicine, as well as publishing and media; a lot of people are losing their jobs in the transition – as people did with the industrial revolution. As long as space travel reaches a point within this century where asteroids can be mined, scarcity will no longer be the issue it is today. Edit: I do support genetic engineering, so I generally do feel that crop yields will increase once we fully understand how to use it.

              • Ennui

                Back from lunch: we may have to agree to disagree. As an exercise though, if you accept that consumption requires energy / resources (even PCs use energy…..) go to a spreadsheet. In column A add years downward. In B1 place the number 1. The calculation for B2 = B1*1.03 (this will equate to growth of 3% per annum). Set it up as a recurrent number in column B…..watch the compound effect and realise that after not too many years the number compounding becomes astronomical.

                Next part of the exercise, come to grips with the now well proven and accepted models of Hubbert (his model of resource extraction for oil works for all energy resources). Consider that we have passed peak for oil and are close with coal and gas (despite what the market says to pump share prices). Now consider the linkage between energy and growth (and consequently the ability to take on future debt via credit creation). Go back to the spreadsheet, look at the exponential growth scenario and ask “what resources can underpin these growth numbers”?

    • Rich the other 8.2

      Labours going to get what it deserves.

      A REAL THUMPING.
      They continue to demonstrate a complete lack of judgment on several issues .

      Parliament yesterday.
      An example , labours position on mining showed a real split in the party.

      The green party disciples , shearer, parker, dyson, etc are determined to continue backing the greens against all REASONED evidence .

      They are turning their back on employment and the $1 billion boost to our economy.
      Labour is giving many people NO choice.

      Next election ,A Landslide win for National.

      • tracey 8.2.1

        Do you consider “reasoned” evidence is based on financial outcome only?

        • Rich the other 8.2.1.1

          Tracey,
          Reasoned = the complete picture.
          This is an environmental issue .
          Ample evidence that this venture will be very positive for the environment and a welcome financial boost for the west coast and the country as a whole.

          What’s really puzzling is the fact that the proposed mining site has been mined in the past and has no special environmental protections.

      • kiwicommie 8.2.2

        Next election ,A Landslide win for National.

        On what evidence (at best National will hold what it has)? You realize that voters can vote someone out on a whim i.e. they are sick of having the same guy in power. It can be the best government in the world, but all you need is apathetic or bored voters.

    • CJA 8.3

      To be perfectly honest I think the policies they have released are unrealistic and unworkable. The classic example of this is the Kiwibuild policy. 100,000 house over ten years equates to building approximately 27 new houses per day (just basing it on simple numbers and not including apartment blocks of course), which in my mind is next to impossible just using logic. Sure if they said 30,000 or so I may have said that is reasonable. The NZ Power announcement won’t gain any traction for the swing voters in the middle where $300 really won’t make a hell a lot of difference and they are entering into an already complex industry by adding more complexity. Doesn’t make sense.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.3.1

        Date of state housing programme included in Walter Nash’s budget: 1936.

        State houses built by 1949: 30,000.

        “…between 1972 and 1974, the number of residential buildings completed per year increased by 10,000…” Source.

        “Logic” :lol:

        • CJA 8.3.1.1

          Sorry don’t quite understand what you’re meaning here? 100,000 new houses is logical or not? Using a Labour pamphlet as a source as well doesn’t really prove anything either.

          • One Anonymous Knucklehead 8.3.1.1.1

            In fact, if you go and check their figures and they’re lying, you’ll have scored an actual point. It also points out that in 2004 there were 32,000 building consents. Perhaps that’s a lie too, and so easy for even a wingnut to check!

            This sum has been done before. We’ve covered the house building record (two hours), the fact that the number of houses that can be built depends very much on the number of people available to build them (well duh!), costs, economies of scale, the works.

            One hundred thousand houses in ten years is ambitious but do-able.

            • CJA 8.3.1.1.1.1

              Don’t doubt figures that there were 32,000 building consents but would be interesting to know how many of those houses were built and completed in a years timeframe.

              • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                It would be less tiresome if you could Google the answers to your own questions – might help move the debate along a bit, eh.

                An example, Stonewood Homes, who’ve built about 4,000 houses since 1987 say: ” …in total somewhere between 30 to 44 weeks…”

                Not that that makes a blind bit of difference: if you start 27 houses in one day, some time later, you will finish 27 houses in one day. Do that every day, you get the picture?

                • CJA

                  Wasn’t actually a question which I needed/wanted an answer for.

                  • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                    First you’re “interested” in the answer, then you neither want nor need it. Is that because you’ve realised the answer makes you look a bit foolish or were you just arguing in bad faith from the start?

                    • CJA

                      Lol seriously? You wanted to come back on a simple statement? You’ll note that my reply above doesn’t contain a question mark hence forth I’m not asking a question simply musing.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      basically CJA is an idiot who doesn’t believe in the power of NZ workers to build things.

                      Like shit, building 5 houses a day in Greater Auckland, 5 in Greater Wellington, 5 in Christchurch, and 5 more spread out around the rest of the country,

                      Shit that’s like 20 houses built a day already! Impossible! Unrealistic! Can’t be done!

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Here’s how you build a 30 story hotel in 15 days.

                      If it was an apartment block that’s 20-30 apartments completed per day on average.

                      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdpf-MQM9vY

                    • CJA

                      I like how I can’t reply to Colonial Viper. So I’m assuming you’re a builder since you think it’s possible to complete 20 houses a day in addition to completing all other building projects around the country. It’s bollocks mate and you know it. It’s just another bribe that is believed will bring votes. Guess we’ll see at the next election on which side of the fence people sit.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Poor wee little old NZ

                      Can’t put together 20 houses a day

                      Even though there are 2000-3000 master builders right here right now

                      20 houses a day too much for little poor lazy Keeeeweeeees

                      Pathetic little country

                      Can it even put together 20 big macs a day? One has to wonder

                      Maybe we might have to pay this outdated thing called “over time”

                      Better import the kitsets from Indonesia

                      Maybe we can do it then?

                    • CJA

                      Good to see you agree with me.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      little ol’ NZ produces 300,000 cubic metres of lumbar a month but cannot build 20 extra houses a day!

                      Poor KeeeeWeeeeees what will they do???

                      20 houses a day too much for KeeeWeeees to comprehende!!!

                      How can little struggling KeeeeWeeees manage to produce 300,000 cubic metres of lumbar a month?

                      Surely poor KeeeeeWeeees would struggle just to put through 3,000 cubic metres of lumbar a month, that’s sooooooo much wooooooood but so few houses!!!

                    • CJA

                      Don’t forget that we all wear grass skirts and have no electricity either lol.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      well, it’s you who doesn’t have faith in your country or your countrymen, so fuck off to Australia you disloyal loser.

                    • CJA

                      Sticks and stones CV. Sticks and stones. Anyway where did I say anything about no faith in our country or countrymen? Anyway enough playtime. I’ll pick this up tomorrow. Ciao for now.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Yeah I figured that you consider the future of this country a kiddies game.

                      Anyway where did I say anything about no faith in our country or countrymen?

                      In everyone of your weasel worded defeat monkey sentences.

                    • CJA

                      Lol “stupid making sense weasel words”. God damn using logic to make sense of things, must come up with more pie in the sky type thinking to convince people of stupid schemes. Oh well.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      “Logic”

                      We covered this already, surrender monkey.

                    • CJA

                      Lol and now I’m french. Drawing a long bow there fellas.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Not French: a defeatist, possessed of a “can’t do” attitude.

                    • CJA

                      Ever heard the phrase “Under promise and over deliver”? If Labour were smart that’s what they would be doing or promising. Instead we get schemes that aren’t achievable and unrealistic. It will come back to bite them and only time will tell.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Yeah, like promising 170,000 jobs and delivering higher unemployment instead.

                    • CJA

                      Yep totally agree with you. Stupid comment to make and it’s brought up often. The only difference is they’re still in government and based on 3 out of the 4 polls will probably remain in government next year. Labour have to stop being lead by the Greens. It’s a shame as some of the Greens are truly loopy.

                    • One Anonymous Knucklehead

                      Have you got anything substantive to contribute, or is this vacuous drivel the best you can do?

                    • CJA

                      Lol you seem to keep replying.

  9. Head in the sand stuff here as usual.

    Maybe you will like to do a similar graph for the greens, you know the party that sometimes is up to
    15% in the polls but ends up around 9-10% at every election.

    • Next election could go either way for the Greens, but that is a matter for 2014, even keeping what they have would be a change for the greens (as in the past they haven’t been able to keep their gains for long).

      • BM 9.1.1

        I remember the last election, the greens were dead and buried, the talk was that they’d struggle to make the 5% threshold.
        Then those fuckwits put the Rena on the rocks, the greens were thrown a life line and were back in the game.

        • One Anonymous Knucklehead 9.1.1.1

          Reality check: Fairfax media poll – so we know it must be accurate ;) – support for Greens at September 2011 – 10%.

          Rena demonstrated everything the National Party represents in October.

          BM found wanting on the ol’ perceptions of the real world front again.

          We need better wingnuts. BM needs better lies.

        • Lanthanide 9.1.1.2

          Funny, I don’t remember that first bit at all. Maybe you made it up.

    • lprent 9.2

      ..do a similar graph for the greens..

      It has been done before and for that matter has been repeatedly pointed out over the years.

      But for your edification… Across all of the polls, they will usually well over-represent National, Act and the Greens compared to the eventual vote. Labour, UF, and the Maori party are usually pretty close to actual results with a tendency to slight under representation. NZ First is usually well under represented. The non-vote is always massively under represented.

      This is a pattern that has been pretty consistent for quite a few election cycles so far.

  10. Matthew Hooton 10

    James, you raise an important point here. National won 47.31% in the last election, on a low turnout. I find it extremely difficult to believe that, even with the big upswing in the economy since 2011, that now has more support than it did then. Yet that’s what most of the polls are saying, just as most had National above 50% for much of the 2008-11 period. And this risks distorting voting behaviour – both lazy Labour people thinking it is not worth voting because their party is doomed, and also lazy National people thinking it is not worth voting because their party is a shoe in.

  11. Chooky 11

    Brand Image:

    Goff did not win His election ( not because he was associated with Helen Clark , who was a winner, or because he was unable) but because he was associated with Roger Douglas and it was a contradictory message he was giving out…ie “Stop Asset Sales!” .His brand image was irredeemably damaged.

    Brand Image Questions:

    1.) Does Shearer appeal to young voters as a dynamic ,articulate, youthful Opposition leader in waiting?
    2.) Does Shearer look like the dynamic leader of a future Left coalition.?
    3.) Can Shearer go effectively head to head with the John Key brand?( successful ,dynamic , youngish, multimillionaire trader)
    4.) What sort of brand image does Shearer give the Labour Party?

    Answer: Should be obvious… ( ask any professional advertising agency )

    Question: Who would create the best brand for Labour in media debates? ( ask an advertising agency)

    Question: Does Labour want to win the next election with a Left coalition?

    • kiwicommie 11.1

      Question: Does every government in the world need a popular leader?
      Answer: Not under a multi party system.

      • One Anonymous Knucklehead 11.1.1

        Popularity? Pfft. I’d settle for an effective communicator.

        • Tim 11.1.1.1

          On an unrelated matter, and with due regard to the MSM’s preoccupation(s), and C.V.’s observation re the NZ Hero and his recent acquisition of jet power, I notice Tony Ryall’s ‘wifey’ has managed to run up another little number (on the Elna) in pink gingham AND what’s more, provide a tie that has a matching pattern.
          Those unsolicited missives from various ‘fashionistas’ I receive – directed to people that are now in line for Solicitor’s General, Crown Prosecutors, ‘decision makers’, prospective politicians (when their various ‘eksents’ become acceptable to the masses), are becoming increasingly irrelevant – not unlike the over-bombardment of ads with increased volume.

          It must have been a struggle for Ryall’s wifey I know, but even so – checks and stripes (and dots) don’t go that well – unless you’re struggling for kitsch (KITSCH being a baby boomer’s description of a New NActional) – albeit a kitsch that comes about when you’re not ekshly looking for a kitsch – it js happins.

          AGAIN…. I’ll expect a Populuxicle to come along shortly and protest (not yet sure on what grounds) – possibly homophobia, racism even, perhaps any – most other/any ‘ism’ yet to be discovered.

      • McFlock 11.1.2

        ooo snap :)

        • McFlock 11.1.2.1

          sorry – that was to kc :)

          • kiwicommie 11.1.2.1.1

            Well look at it this hypothetically:
            RWL (Right Wing Leader) has 35%
            C-CLPL’s (Center-Center Left party Leaders):
            X has 20%
            Y has 10%
            Z has 5%
            One party leader can have 35%, but collectively the other parties can have a percentage each for their party leaders, it is possible to have a popular right wing leader; but that doesn’t mean he is much more popular the collective popularity of the left wing leaders. Maybe you can’t enjoy your lunch without your Shearer burger, Norman salad, and your Harawira milkshake.

  12. McFlock 12

    Nice chart :)

  13. aerobubble 13

    Polls aren’t accurate since many many people turn off between elections and do not engage until they need to, so there is a built in inertia to them. Key in the last too elections lost 3% of the vote from the pre-election polling to the actual election result. Remember the polls predicting the first governing alone MMP govt of John Key as ACT vote had collapsed.

  14. Bearded Git 14

    National got in last time partly on their competent handling of the earthquakes. This benefit has now largely gone-neutralised by the slow building/planning progress and awful Brownlee and this combined with the schools debacle means Chch is back with Labour (see the chch poll today-Labour at 40%). Hillside has done for Nats in Dunedin. Saying that Wellington is dying and there is no solution means Nats are in trouble in Wellington.

    If Labour/Greens can get some more of the south Auckland vote out a drover’s dog could win this election-so even Shearer should win it. I am confident.

    • kiwicommie 14.1

      Well I have always been proud of Wellington, it has to be one of the most progressive cities in New Zealand. National have never been liked much there, hence why Labour, Greens and other center and center-left parties do so well in Wellington. If John Key wants to lose more votes in Wellington, he is welcome to. ;)

  15. Jimmie 15

    I think Shearer’s best ally is Mr Uncertainty.

    The two main contenders Cunliffe and Robertson cannot just run some sneaky numbers in the backroom as in yesteryear.

    Under the new rules if Shearer gets the boot then it goes to the party and the unions (and caucus) for voting – what would the outcome be?

    I think this more than anything will keep Shearer in his job through until 2014.

    Is this the best thing for the party? Time will tell.

    Perhaps it was the membership voting for a long term victory (to get their preferred candidate) while conceding a short term (2014) defeat.

  16. Shearer will be breathing a big sigh of relief at the latest Roy Morgan. National down to 41%, Labour up to 35% and the Greens on 12% …

    Of course what the reality is is something that we can only speculate on.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/new-zealand-voting-intention-may29-201305290604

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      Just saw that. A decent showing for Labour and an ebbing away for National. Roy Morgan chose to present the result as voters unimpressed with English’s budget. I wonder what respondants said to his phone bank team…

      Greens unchanged on 12%

      • Olwyn 16.1.1

        I have to say it. Whenever I get my hopes up that there is going to be a shift toward something, almost anything, heartening, in the Labour Party, the good old polls cry 35%, which has become the new 45%, and other people click their heels and I just sigh.

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.1

          Beggars and choosers I’m afraid.

          Labour, a party who claims to represent the 99%, elated at hitting 35%. Where’s the disconnect?

    • Sanctuary 16.2

      So let me get this right… There is an EIGHT percentage point difference between Roymorgan and Fairfax/TVNZs level of support for National? That is an insane amount, and calls into question the accuracy of all of the polls.

      • Colonial Viper 16.2.1

        It’s simply the difference between doing all your polling in Mt Wellington and all your polling in Ellerslie

  17. irascible 17

    Interestingly, when respondents were polled on Key’s truthfulness and trustworthiness regardless of political persuasion the respondents took some time to answer. The report in the paper indicates considerable disquiet developing around Key’s trustworthiness and truthfulness.

  18. Cliff 18

    Agree that the polls need to be seen as trends rather than taken in isolation, but the trends are that Labour is not delivering the king hits they should be. We know that there is a whole soft centre core of voters in there that will swing around like mad come campaign season – they are the fodder for NZ First, Act and the Conservatives – and Labour, if we could get our act together.

    I am so disappointed by the showing of our Labour MPs on the Budget. Only a few of them – Ian Lees Galloway, David Clark and David Cunliffe – actually delivered any kind of robust analysis of the smoke and mirrors that constitutes this Budget – and it wasn’t pulled through into this week’s performance at all. Why not let those boys at it rather than relegating them to the cheap seats because of petty factionalism? And where is the strategy – Not even a Finance question in the House today? Let alone a question that would deliver an attack on Hekia on Education today – in anticipation of the ChCh schools announcement this afternoon? What is going on? Where is the strategy?

    Or is this the strategy – to let poor David Shearer fail at the last hurdle?

    I really want Labour to win the next election but it aint going to happen this way and I’m giving up on working out what it is going to take to make our Parliamentary representatives understand that.

    • Colonial Viper 18.1

      neither the Leader nor the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party have any strong grasp of conventional orthodox economic theory (the one the neolibs have been using to suck the world dry), let alone a working understanding of alternative heterodox economics.

      David Parker is much better but he’s still a fairly orthodox market forces pricing signal regulatory mechanisms kind of guy. And anyways you can’t have him front footing complex economic arguments in front of a camera to Joe Public because it’s just not something he can pull off.

      Key is going to run the entire TV debate series next year using an extended theme and variations of “Show Me the Money”.

      Basically, we’re royally fucked, thanks to the fine political judgement of 65% of the Labour caucus.

      • Alanz 18.1.1

        +1,000,000

        mmm why is there a feeling of getting spit roasted (not in a nice way) by John Key & the Nats at one end but also by 65% of the Labour caucus as well … unbelievable (in terms of the latter)

    • Saarbo 18.2

      +1

  19. Is their a newzealand version of Nate Silver?

  20. millsy 20

    Part of me hopes that National gets in in 2014.

    Why?

    Because the level of hardship, misery, homlessness, sickness, pollution and poisoned water would be so unberable that in 2017, National would be tossed out for a generation, and a fresh batch of Labour/Green visionaries would be able to take New Zealand into a new future.

    • Jimmie 20.1

      ‘Visionary’ Now that is a scary word to associate with the green party and parliament.

      Translated it equals: Greens tell everyone else what they can and cannot do – ban this, ban that, live like old school communal hippies, oh but smoking up the green stuff is just fine.

      • felix 20.1.1

        You should try actually reading or listening to the greens sometime.

      • millsy 20.1.2

        Jimmie, you think its OK for the air we breathe to be poisoned and the water we drink to be fouled dont we.

        Both, IMO are crimes against humanity.

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    The release by Julian Assange on Wikileaks of the draft Trands Pacific Partnership chapter on intellectual property – including drug patents – contains some pretty disturbing evidence about what’s still on the table. The leaked drafts pertain to the May...
    Gordon Campbell | 20-10
  • Access: Art and disability: a festival
    The three-day InterACT 2014 Disability Arts Festival kicks off tomorrow at Auckland's Corban Estate and, in its fourth year, provides an intriguing mix of established artists and joyous, unbridled inclusion.One one hand, there are the gala nights on Thursday and...
    Public Address | 20-10
  • Prison abolition – part of creating a just, equal, peaceful society
    Protest at Paremoremo in 2012 over what lawyer Peter Williams described as ‘inhumane’ conditions by Val Morse I want to acknowledge all the people who have done time inside, been arrested or assaulted by the police, whether here or elsewhere....
    Redline | 20-10
  • Prison abolition – part of creating a just, equal, peaceful society
    Protest at Paremoremo in 2012 over what lawyer Peter Williams described as ‘inhumane’ conditions by Val Morse I want to acknowledge all the people who have done time inside, been arrested or assaulted by the police, whether here or elsewhere....
    Redline | 20-10
  • Members of the public stop donating to the SPCA over position on 1080
    Steve Atwood that posted this letter to the SPCA on Facebook the other day. Steve is a great guy and takes some brilliant wildlife photos. We have republished Steve’s letter to the SPCA with his permission. Dear SPCA, I write...
    Gareth’s World | 20-10
  • The struggles of everyday life
    A photo of Asher (right) face-to-face with a cop, taken at a protest outside the Labour Party Conference in 2007, following the so-called “terror raids”, taken by Simon Oosterman. (For our opening week, we asked all our contributors to think...
    On the Left | 20-10
  • West Auckland new network consultation
    Consultation for the West Auckland portion of the new network is now underway. This follows the consultations for Pukekohe/Waiuku, Warkworth, Hibiscus Coast and South Auckland. The consultation runs from today till Monday 1st December. It’s a consultation I’ll be following...
    Transport Blog | 20-10
  • The gerrymanders and National’s 2017 constraints
    Parliament is back in business with National in charge to a degree not seen since first-past-the-post “parliamentary dictatorship” days — thanks to three successful gerrymanders and one failed one. Two of the successful gerrymanders were National’s contrivances to get its...
    Colin James | 20-10
  • Ocean heat storage: a particularly lousy policy target
    The New York Times, 12 December 2027: After 12 years of debate and negotiation, kicked off in Paris in 2015, world leaders have finally agreed to ditch the goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C. Instead, they have...
    Real Climate | 20-10
  • Sanctions and bombs: how the UN and western powers committed mass murder in...
    This article first appeared in revolution magazine’s Middle East bulletin MidEast Solidarity, issue #1, Spring 2001. It looks at the division of labour between the United Nations and western imperialist powers in committing mass murder in Iraq in the 1990s;...
    Redline | 20-10
  • Sanctions and bombs: how the UN and western powers committed mass murder in...
    This article first appeared in revolution magazine’s Middle East bulletin MidEast Solidarity, issue #1, Spring 2001. It looks at the division of labour between the United Nations and western imperialist powers in committing mass murder in Iraq in the 1990s;...
    Redline | 20-10
  • Luke Harding and the spy as editor
    Originally published at Overland I was writing a chapter on the NSA’s close, and largely hidden, relationship with Silicon Valley. I wrote that Snowden’s revelations had damaged US tech companies and their bottom line. Something odd happened. The paragraph I...
    Bat bean beam | 20-10
  • I quite like beer, the rugby no so much
    Phil Quin put a post up yesterday chiding Grant Robertson for what he sees as an overly cautious approach to political messaging and urging him to be more warlike in his phraseology because New Zealanders clearly have a deep, deep...
    Pundit | 20-10
  • Speech from the Throne: State Opening of Parliament, 21 Oct
    Speech – Governor General Following the General Election, a National-led Government has been formed with a majority in the House on confidence and supply. Confidence and supply agreements have been signed between the National Party and, respectively, the ACT Party...
    Its our future | 20-10
  • Gordon Campbell on the latest TPP leaks
    Column – Gordon Campbell The release by Julian Assange on Wikileaks of the draft Trands Pacific Partnership chapter on intellectual property including drug patents – contains some pretty disturbing evidence about whats still on the table.Gordon Campbell on the latest...
    Its our future | 20-10
  • United Nations: friend or foe?
    Many well-intentioned people still see the United Nations as some kind of alternative to imperialism. Below we’re reprinting an article that first appeared in issue #2 of MidEast Solidarity (Autumn 2002), the Middle East bulletin of revolution magazine. The anti-imperialist...
    Redline | 20-10
  • United Nations: friend or foe?
    Many well-intentioned people still see the United Nations as some kind of alternative to imperialism. Below we’re reprinting an article that first appeared in issue #2 of MidEast Solidarity (Autumn 2002), the Middle East bulletin of revolution magazine. The anti-imperialist...
    Redline | 20-10
  • Every day’s a rainy day
    Sarah’s cat, Carina *nb* This is a repost from Sarah’s site writehanded.org. This week, my best friend – otherwise known as a slightly rotund adopted moggy called Carina – decided that she would enjoy no less than three visits to...
    On the Left | 20-10
  • 10 Key Facts about Labour’s Leadership Election
    Plans are proceeding for the Leadership Election, and at this stage I thought it might be useful to have a heads-up on some of the key aspects from the perspective of members:...
    Labour campaign | 20-10
  • SellShed shedding money?
    This is not how you are meant to do it: Online seller SellShed starts up The seven-person firm has invested hundreds of thousands of dollars building a website and free iPhone app and was now on the hunt for “smart...
    Lance Wiggs | 20-10
  • John Key on Iraq: A timeline
    No New Zealand forces to Iraq, says Key. Stuff, 18 June 2014: Prime Minister John Key has ruled out sending special forces soldiers to Iraq as the United States mulls options in response to the unfolding crisis there. Speaking in...
    No Right Turn | 20-10
  • New Fisk
    With US-led strikes on Isis intensifying, it’s a good time to be a shareholder in the merchants of death...
    No Right Turn | 20-10
  • Carbon News 20/10/14: Chile’s carbon tax, soil SOS and more pressure on d...
    Chile’s new tax could open carbon doors for NZ Chile’s new carbon tax potentially offers New Zealand an opportunity to offset some of its own agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, says economist Dr Suzi Kerr. The $US5-a-tonne carbon tax slipped into...
    Hot Topic | 20-10
  • National doesn’t care about crime by the rich
    National likes to make a lot of noise about benefit fraud. Meanwhile, they've buried a report into the social costs of economic crime:At the beginning of last year the then Minister for the SFO, Anne Tolley, was reported as saying...
    No Right Turn | 20-10
  • New kiwi blog
    On The Left - a collective of lefties....
    No Right Turn | 20-10
  • Habemus Parliament
    So, a month after the election, we finally have a Parliament. Good. meanwhile, people seem to be noticing that the associated ceremony - white wigs, fancy dress, oaths of allegiance to a foreign monarch - isn't very kiwi (and tomorrow,...
    No Right Turn | 20-10
  • Damning report on Ruataniwha dam numbers
    When I presented my submission to the Board of Inquiry on the Tukituki Catchment Proposal I compared the proposed 83 metre high Ruataniwha dam with the Clyde Dam and noted the risk of cost blowouts in the construction process.  The...
    frogblog | 20-10
  • NZ elite win seat at UN Security Council – don’t celebrate, organise!
    Among its past services at the top table of the UN, New Zealand chaired the sanctions committee on Iraq; their sanctions killed at least a million Iraqis, half of them children by Philip Ferguson The New Zealand elite is slapping...
    Redline | 20-10
  • A mighty totara has fallen across the Tasman
    The New Zealand Labour Party expresses deep sadness at the death of former Australian prime minister Gough Whitlam, aged 98. “Today a great totara has fallen across the Tasman,” Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says....
    Labour | 21-10
  • Note to National: Must deliver on child poverty
    John Key and his Government will be held to its promise to make child poverty a priority, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “In its priority-setting speech today the Government stated child poverty would be a major focus for...
    Labour | 21-10
  • New Analysis show Government cut tertiary education funding
    New analysis done by the Green Party today shows the Government has made cuts to funding of tertiary education since 2008.Figures compiled by the Parliamentary Library show that between 2009 and 2015 Government funding to Tertiary Institutions dropped by 4...
    Greens | 21-10
  • Students doing it tough as fees rise again
    The Government is making it increasingly difficult for Kiwis to gain tertiary education as fees continue to rise and access to student support becomes even more restricted, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Steven Joyce is shutting a generation...
    Labour | 20-10
  • Key misled New Zealand on Iraq deployment
      John Key was misleading New Zealanders prior to the election when he ruled out New Zealand special forces being deployed to Iraq, says Labour Defence Spokesperson Phil Goff.  “Post-election he has cynically disregarded that by saying that deployment of...
    Labour | 20-10
  • Swearing about swearing the oath
    Yesterday, I was swearing. Swearing the Parliamentary oath, that is. But, under my breath, I was also quietly swearing about the archaic, colonial form of that oath and its inappropriateness for today’s Aotearoa New Zealand. To be permitted to speak...
    Greens | 20-10
  • Damning report on Ruataniwha dam numbers
    When I presented my submission to the Board of Inquiry on the Tukituki Catchment Proposal I compared the proposed 83 metre high Ruataniwha dam with the Clyde Dam and noted the risk of cost blowouts in the construction process.  The...
    Greens | 20-10
  • Church congratulated on child poverty stand
    The efforts by the bishops of the Anglican Church to ensure that the issue of child poverty is not forgotten is a call to all New Zealanders to take action, says Labour’s Interfaith-Dialogue Spokesperson, Su’a William Sio.   “I think...
    Labour | 19-10
  • Labour names Review Team
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review.  He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban (see further biographical details here). The Review Team...
    Labour | 19-10
  • Labour backs urban development plans
    Auckland Council’s plan to set up an urban development agency is to be applauded and central government should get behind it to make it a success, Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford says. Auckland Council CEO Stephen Town has indicated plans...
    Labour | 18-10
  • New Zealand can be rightly proud of seat on Security Council
    Gaining a seat on the United Nation’s Security Council shows the sort of standing that New Zealand has in the world and the quality of the long campaign that we ran over nearly a decade, says Foreign Affairs spokesperson David...
    Labour | 16-10
  • NZ has opportunity on UN Security Council
    New Zealand has an opportunity to make a major contribution to the strengthening of international law and institutional capacity through its upcoming two-year tenure on the United Nations Security Council, Green Party spokesperson on global affairs, Dr Kennedy Graham said...
    Greens | 16-10
  • MPI still dragging the chain over causes of food bug
    The Ministry of Primary Industries’ release of Environmental Science and Research’s initial reports regarding the sources of a nasty stomach bug will be little comfort to the 127 people affected by it, Labour’s Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “This...
    Labour | 16-10
  • Treasury officials should try working without food
    The Green Party is challenging Treasury officials to work for a week without eating properly, in light of their advice to Government that a food in schools programme is not needed."Treasury's advice was that providing food for children in schools...
    Greens | 15-10
  • Councils need to better protect our drinking water
    Environment Canterbury (ECan) is proposing several variations to its regional land and water plan that will allow for increased nutrient and other pollution from irrigation and intensive agriculture on the Canterbury Plains. Commissioners are hearing submissions on Variation 1 to...
    Greens | 15-10
  • National needs to commit to making NZ workers safe
    The National Government must do more to help make New Zealand workplaces a safer place to work in, Green Party industrial relations spokesperson Denise Roche said today.Data released by Statistics New Zealand today showed that workers in the fishing and...
    Greens | 15-10
  • Key commits to deployment before consultation or analysis
    John Key’s offer to consult Opposition parties on whether to deploy New Zealand forces against ISIS looks increasingly like a PR exercise only, says Labour’s Defence spokesperson, Phil Goff. “The presence of New Zealand’s Chief of Defence Force at a...
    Labour | 15-10
  • National must end ideological opposition to raising income
    If John Key is serious about tackling child poverty he must approach it with an open mind, and overcome his ideological block to raising incomes as a solution, the Green Party said today.Papers released to Radio New Zealand today show...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Pentagon links climate change and terrorism
    Yesterday the Pentagon launched a plan to deal with a threat that “poses immediate risks to national security”; one that “will affect the Department of Defense’s ability to defend the nation”. It wasn’t referring to Ebola or ISIS. It was...
    Greens | 14-10
  • Four Nominees for Labour’s Leadership
    As at 5pm today four valid nominations had been received for the position of Labour Leader, as follows: Andrew Little(nominated by Poto Williams and Iain Lees-Galloway) Nanaia Mahuta(nominated by Louisa Wall and Su’a William Sio) David Parker(nominated by Damien O’Connor...
    Labour | 14-10
  • Green Party calls for consultation over terrorism law changes
    The Green Party has today written to the Prime Minister asking him to engage in wider consultation prior to changing any laws as a result of the recently announced terrorism law reviews, said the Green Party today. In a letter...
    Greens | 14-10
  • MPI must name product and supermarket chain
    The Ministry of Primary Industries must name the product responsible for severe gastroenteritis affecting people around the country, and the supermarket chain distributing it, Labour’s Food Safety spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “The Ministry seems to be more concerned about protecting...
    Labour | 13-10
  • John Key dishonest about reasons for wanting to change terrorism law
    John Key is misleading the public to push through terrorism law changes under urgency, the Green Party said today. On Sunday, John Key stated that it is not illegal for someone to fight overseas for a terrorist group, such as...
    Greens | 12-10
  • Law changes shaping up to be worse than first thought
    The Prime Minister needs to be up front about exactly what changes he is planning to make to the Employment Relations  Amendment Bill, Labour's spokesperson on Labour Issues Andrew Little says.Interviewed on Q&A yesterday John Key said he did not...
    Labour | 12-10
  • Rapists, not Tinder, the threat to women
    Blame for rape and sexual assault should only ever be laid at the door of the perpetrator, not dating services or the actions of women themselves, Labour’s Associate Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. “Tinder is not the problem and women...
    Labour | 09-10
  • Safer Journeys For People Who Cycle
    You have a rare opportunity to tell the people who are making the decisions on cycling how to make it better. The Cycling Safety Panel is seeking feedback on their draft recommendations for improving the safety of cycling in New...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Subsidising more pollution will undermine water clean-up plan at Te Waihora...
    In 2010, NIWA found Canterbury’s Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere had the worst nutrient status of 140 lakes around New Zealand that it measured. In 2011, the National Government committed to spending $15 million across the country through the Fresh Start for...
    Greens | 08-10
  • Adding value not herbicides
    The HT swedes, and other brassicas, might seem like a good idea to farmers struggling against weeds but like the GE road, is this the path we want our agriculture to be treading? The Federated Farmers President, Dr William Rolleston...
    Greens | 07-10
  • ‘Blame the Planner’ bizarre approach to child poverty
    The National Government is stooping to a bizarre new low in blaming "planning processes" for poverty and inequality, after spending six years doing nothing about either the housing market or child poverty, the Green Party said today. Finance Minister Bill...
    Greens | 07-10
  • Media Advisory
    MANA Leader, Hone Harawira will not be available to speak with media today regarding his release “Recount Just One Step To restoring Credibility”. He is however available for media comment tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th of October, all media arrangements are...
    Mana | 07-10
  • RECOUNT JUST ONE STEP TO RESTORING CREDIBILITY
    “I have applied for a judicial recount of the votes in the Tai Tokerau election because it is one step in trying to restore credibility to the electoral process in the north, and, I suspect, in all other Maori electorates...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA SEEKS TAI TOKERAU RECOUNT
    The MANA Movement is supporting Leader Hone Harawira’s application for a judicial re-count in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate for the 2014 general election. President Lisa McNab says there are a number of serious issues of concern regarding the ability...
    Mana | 07-10
  • MANA to fight mass privatisation of state housing
    Announcements over the past 12 hours from the Minister responsible for Housing New Zealand, Bill English, and Minister for Social Housing, Paula Bennett, make clear the government’s intention for the mass privatisation of state housing. This comes during the middle...
    Mana | 07-10
  • Journalists have right to protect sources
    Legal authorities must respect the right of journalist Nicky Hager to protect the source of his material for his Dirty Politics book under Section 68 of the Evidence Act, Acting Labour Leader David Parker says. “It is crucial in an...
    Labour | 06-10
  • It shouldn’t take the Army to house the homeless
    National’s move to speed up its state house sell-off shows it is bankrupt of new ideas, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “National has been in office for six years, yet the housing crisis has got worse every month and...
    Labour | 06-10
  • Government must lift social housing supply, not shuffle the deck chairs
    National's decision to shift the state provision of housing to third parties is a smokescreen for the Government decreasing the provision of affordable housing, the Green Party said today."What National should be doing is increasing the supply of both social...
    Greens | 06-10
  • Election 2014 – the final count
    While we have to wait for the final booth level counts we can now see how well we did in the specials and look at electorate level data. First off special votes (and disallowed/recounted votes etc). There was a change...
    Greens | 06-10
  • We need more houses, not Ministers
    The Government’s decision to have three housing Ministers will create a dog’s breakfast of the portfolio and doesn’t bode well for fixing the country’s housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “New Zealanders need more houses, not more Ministers....
    Labour | 05-10
  • MANA’S CHALLENGE TO THE 51st PARLIAMENT
    Ten years ago I led 50,000 Maori on the historic FORESHORE AND SEABED MARCH from Te Rerenga Wairua to the very steps of this parliament, in a march against the greatest land grab in the history of this country –...
    Mana | 03-10
  • Is this really necessary?
    No one denies chief executives should be well paid for their skills and experience, but it is the efforts of all employees which contribute to company profits, Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker says. “Salaries paid to chief executives come at...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Lyttelton Port workers also deserve pay rises
    Hard slog by Lyttelton Port workers contributed to strong financial growth for the company and they deserve to be rewarded for their work as much as its chief executive, says Labour’s Acting Leader David Parker. “Lyttelton Port chief executive Peter...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Māori Party must seek guarantees on Māori seats
    Labour is calling on the Māori Party to ensure protection of the Māori seats is part of its coalition deal with National which is being considering this weekend, Labour’s Māori Affairs spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says. “For the third consecutive term,...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Donaghys job losses another blow to Dunedin
    The loss of 30 jobs from Donaghys rope and twine factory is yet another blow to the people and economy of Dunedin, says Dunedin South Labour MP Clare Curran. “Donaghys was founded in 1876; the company has survived two world...
    Labour | 02-10
  • Dairy price fall shows urgent need to diversify
    The overnight drop in milk prices shows New Zealand’s overreliance on the dairy industry puts our economy in a vulnerable position, says Acting Labour Leader David Parker. “Dairy prices fell 7.3 per cent overnight and have almost halved since February....
    Labour | 02-10
  • Tasks aplenty for new Health Minister
    One of the first jobs for the new Minister of Health must be to provide an honest and transparent report into surgery waiting times and exactly how many Kiwis are not having their health needs met, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette...
    Labour | 02-10
  • OIA protocols and official advice ignored to hide Child Poverty
    It might not seem so now, but child poverty was a major election issue. What a pity we did not have the full debate. In that debate it would have been very helpful to have seen the Ministry of Social...
    The Daily Blog | 20-10
  • Previewing the 4 candidates for Leader of the Labour Party
    The extraordinary outbursts by Shearer last week highlights just how toxic that Caucus is. Shearer was on every major media platform as the ABC attack dog tearing into Cunliffe in the hope of diminishing Cunliffe’s support of Little by tearing...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – the sudden explosion of ‘left’ blogs
    Time to Teach or more people will suffer from P.A.I.D. Political And Intellectual Dysmorphia.I was on the Twitter and a guy followed me so of course I did the polite thing and followed him back. He wrote a blog so...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Ego vs Eco
    Ego vs Eco...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • We can’t let the Roastbuster case slip away
    Those of us (like me) left with hope that the police would aggressively follow through on the large amount of evidence on offer to them (let’s not forget they forgot they even had some at one point) in the Roastbusters...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Food, shelter and medicine instead of bombs and bullets
    The on-going conflict across the Middle East – due in large part to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq – has created another humanitarian crisis of biblical proportion. The essentials of life are desperately needed in Iraq and Syria...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • The politics of electorate accommodations
    National’s electorate accommodations with ACT and United Future were a big factor in it winning re-election. Interestingly, there is another electorate accommodation scenario whereby the centre-left could have come out on top, even with the same distribution of party votes....
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Why you should join the TPPA Action on 8 November
    On 8 November 2014, thousands of Kiwis will take part in the International Day of Action to protest the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). The rally cry for us is TPPA – Corporate Trap, Kiwis Fight Back. Why should you join...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • GUEST BLOG – Patrick O’Dea: no new coal mines
    Green Party and Mana Party policy is “NO NEW COAL MINES!” Auckland Coal Action is trying to put this policy into action on the ground. ACA after a hard fought two year campaign waged alongside local residents and Iwi, in...
    The Daily Blog | 19-10
  • Comparing Police action – Hager raid vs Roast Buster case
    This satire had the NZ Police contact TDB and threaten us with 6months in prison for using their logo.   The plight of Nicky Hager and the draconian Police actions against him has generated over  $53 000 in donations so...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Malala Yousafzai, White Saviour Complexes and Local Resistance
    Last week, Malala Yousafzai was the co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Since her exposure to the worldwide spotlight, her spirit, wisdom and strength have touched the hearts of people everywhere. However, there have been cynics who have argued that...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • Jason Ede is back – but no media can interview him?
    Well, well, well. Jason Ede, the main figure connected to John Key’s office and the Dirty Politics black ops is back with a company with deep ties to the National Party. One thing you can say about the right –...
    The Daily Blog | 18-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Leadership Transitions In Other Parties: A ...
    As cannot have escaped anyone’s attention by now, the country is presently in the grips of an election and campaign that will help determine the fate of the nation for years to come. It’s gripping stuff – with clear divides...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • SkyCity worker says she faces losing her house
    SkyCity worker Carolyn Alpine told the company annual shareholder’s meeting today that she faced the prospect of losing her house because the company had cut her shifts from two a week to one without consultation. The solo mother, has worked...
    The Daily Blog | 17-10
  • Greg O’Connor’s latest push to arm cops & 5 reasons not to
    I was wondering at what point within a 3rd term of National that Police Cheerleader Greg O’Connor would start trying to demand cops be armed. O’Connor must have thought to himself, ‘if bloody Key can get us and the GCSB vast new...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • You can’t have crisis without ISIS
    So the new scary bogeyman ISIS might have chemical weapons that the US secretly found in Iraq, but America didn’t want to expose this find because the WMDs were actually built and made by the US and Europe, the two powers...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • NZ WINS UN SPIN THE BOTTLE! Privately sucking up to America for a decade me...
    Oh, we are loved! Little old NZ, the 53rd state of America after Israel and Australia, gets to sit at the adults table for the special dinner party that is the UN Security Council. How delightful, a decade of privately...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • MEDIA BLOG – Myles Thomas – A World Without Advertising
    Non-commercial broadcasting and media. It’s a solution for all manner of problems ailing our tender nation… voter engagement, unaccountable governance, apathy, stupefaction, public education, science in schools, arts appreciation, cultural cringe… But no-one could’ve guessed that non-commercial media might solve...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October
    March against war – 2pm Saturday 25th October...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • Whack a mole as US govt foreign policy
    Whack-A-Mole was a popular arcade game from my youth.  It consisted of a waist high cabinet with holes in the top. Plastic moles seemingly randomly pop out of these holes. The purpose of the game was to hit as many...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • In Paean of Debt
    This week is ‘Money Week’. It’s an opportunity to promote to the middle classes, and anyone else who will listen, the virtues of wise ‘investment’. The aims are to promote the mystical (and indeed mythical) virtues of saving for the...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • The last 48 hours – Poverty denial, war denial and unapologetic abuse of ...
    The bewildering speed of events that simply end in Key shrugging and proclaiming he doesn’t really give a shit is coming think and fast as the Government suddenly appreciate the full spectrum dominance they now enjoy. Here is Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 16-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Pat O’Dea – Mana 2.0 Rebooted
    Internationally the news is that Evo Morales of Bolivia won big with Left Wing policies But what are the chances that the Left will make a resurgence in this country? As the internecine struggles between the Left and the Right...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Blomfield IPCA letter – Has Dirty Politics leaked into the NZ Police ...
    It’s difficult to know what to make of the IPCA letter to Matthew Blomfield over Slater’s continued insistence that the hard drive taken from Matthew wasn’t stolen.  Slater has selectively cherry picked the Police referring back to his claim that Blomfeild perjured...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • ​Media release: Rail and Maritime Transport Union – Auckland move for K...
    The Rail and Maritime Transport Union is questioning a KiwiRail proposal to progressively relocate its Zero Harm personnel from Wellington to Auckland. “The purpose of the Zero Harm team is to drive KiwiRail’s performance in health and safety.  Rail is a...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Amnesty International – Friend request from an IS militant
    There’s always that one person, that one Facebook friend, usually a musician or event promoter, who, when you so foolishly accept their friend request, will completely inundate your news feed with copious event invitations and promotions. The person who, despite...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • NZ should follow the UK and recognize the Palestinian state
    Over the past two weeks, the United Kingdom and Sweden have made headlines through their decisions to recognize the state of Palestine. They are hardly the first nations to do so. Indeed, 134 countries have, in various ways, given formal...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • The Discordant Chimes of Freedom: Why Labour has yet to be forgiven.
    WHY DOES THE ELECTORATE routinely punish Labour and the Greens for their alleged “political correctness” but not National? It just doesn’t seem fair. Consider, for example, the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007 – the so-called “anti-smacking legislation” –...
    The Daily Blog | 15-10
  • Hosking or Henry – Which right wing crypto fascist clown do you want to w...
    So Mediaworks are finally going to make some actual money from their eye watering contract with Paul Henry by launching a new multi-platform Breakfast show over TV, Radio and internet. This is great news for Campbell Live who have dodged...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Families need more money to reduce child poverty
    Prime Minister John Key is mistaken to rule out extending the In Work Tax Credit to all poor children (The Nation 11th Oct) and Child Poverty Action Group challenges government advisors to come up with a more cost effective way...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kelly Ellis – Don’t shit on my dream
    Once were dreamers. A large man, walks down the road and, even from 200 yards there’s light showing between his big arms and bigger body. It’s as if he’s put tennis balls under his arms. Two parking wardens walk out...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Labour and ‘special interests’
    The media narrative of Labour is that it is unpopular because it’s controlled by ‘special interests’. This ‘special interests’ garbage is code for gays, Maoris, wimin and unionists. We should show that argument the contempt it deserves. The next Labour...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Ru...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Tahi) . National’s housing development project: ‘Gateway’ to confusion . Perhaps nothing better illustrates National’s lack of a coherent housing programme than the ‘circus’ that is...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • Here’s what WINZ are patronisingly saying to people on welfare when they ...
    Yesterday, a case manager from WINZ called to tell me that I needed to “imagine what I would do if I did not have welfare”. I replied “Well, I guess if I couldn’t live at home, I would be homeless.”...
    The Daily Blog | 14-10
  • David Shearer’s ‘no feminist chicks’ mentality highlights all that is...
    Mr Nasty pays a visit Shearer’s extraordinary outburst last night on NZs favourite redneck TV, The Paul Henry Show, is a reminder of all that is wrong within the Labour Caucus right now… He said the current calls for a female or...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0
    Greenpeace 1 – Shell 0...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – A Tale Of Two Cities
    Sunday was surreal. I went for a drive and ended up in a different country. It wasn’t intentional but those days of too many literally intertextual references seldom are. There is no doubt that the Sunday drive this week had...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Key raises terror threat level to justify war in Iraq and now the SIS need ...
    Have we learned nothing from rushing into war? It’s embarrassing Key has raised our terror threat from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ so he can justify military action in Iraq. Watching him pimp for an American war is as sick as...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Socialism? in France; Austerity in Europe
    On Sunday I stumbled upon this recent New York Times column The Fall of France by Paul Krugman. Then I caught BBC’s Newsnight interview with France’s ‘Socialist’ Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Krugman notes that the Socialists came to power on an anti-austerity mandate, but completely squandered their opportunity...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • So Snowden and Greenwald were right – again – NZ Embassies spying for A...
    Well, well, well. What do we have here… NZ embassies involved in covert intelligence work for US – reportsNew Zealand’s embassies have been involved in covert intelligence gathering work on behalf of the United States, a fresh batch of classified...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Curwen Rolinson – Why David Parker *isn’t* a credible choic...
    The one electoral contest this year that a Labour leader is sure to win heated up over the weekend with the late entry of Finance Spokesman (and interim caretaker leader) David Parker into Labour’s leadership race. I’d blogged late last...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Fran O’Sullivan’s extraordinary column
    Note how the carefully constructed flow chart above ignores the mainstream media’s complicity with Slater and Dirty Politics    I am no fan of Fran O’Sullivan’s politics and would argue long into the day against her on many of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Final salute to Cunliffe
    Final salute to Cunliffe...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • David Cunliffe’s statement
    I am today announcing that I have decided not to nominate for the 2014 Labour Party leadership contest. It has been a hard decision to make but it is one that I believe is in the best interests of the...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Cunliffe to quit leadership race – the losers are the Labour Party member...
    That’s all folks   And so ends the first ever Labour Party member/affiliates choice for leadership. David Cunliffe is standing down at 2pm and is supporting Andrew Little instead. What a perverse turn of events. Cunliffe was punished by an angry Labour leadership forced...
    The Daily Blog | 13-10
  • Want to see new Nu Zilind? Read the comments section of Andrea Vance’s co...
    Andrea Vance is no stooge. She is one of the few mainstream media voices who has challenged power and authority, her latest column on the outrageous attempts by Key to use fear mongering to  spook the sleepy hobbits into war...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Humanity calling Government – anyone with empathy home?
    On Friday night groups of Invercargill activists and plain ole people who care took part in the 14 Hours Homeless event – sleeping out in the balmy southern climate on cardboard and couches at our Salvation Army Citadel. It’s a...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Labour, leadership and White blokes
    David Shearer said on TV3’s The Nation this weekend that he appreciated the support Labour’s received from Maori and Pacific communities over the last few elections, but that it was important to again, secure the votes of ordinary white blokes...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Wrong priorities in media coverage of Ebola crisis
    The experts have told us that there is very little likelihood of a serious Ebola outbreak in any Western nation – unless the virus changes so that it can be spread through the air rather than just via bodily fluids....
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • John Key uses the same old warmongering recipe
    Less than three weeks after the election Prime Minister John Key wants New Zealand to join a war in the Middle East and extend the powers of our US-focused spy agencies the SIS (Security Intelligence Service) and the GCSB (Government...
    The Daily Blog | 12-10
  • Speech from the Throne brings welcome focus on children
    Today’s speech from the Throne confirms the Government’s focus on children, youth and their families in the areas of health, education, youth employment, poverty alleviation and Whānau Ora; now the challenge is to ensure every child in New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • John’s Job Fairs no fix for unemployment and poverty
    “John Key has clearly been looking to the US for his latest bright idea on dealing with employment issues,” says Auckland Action Against Poverty coordinator Sue Bradford. “Job fairs where the desperately unemployed queue in their corporate best to compete...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Speech From the Throne Foreshadows More Corporate Welfare
    Responding to the Governor General’s Speech from the Throne, which outlined that the Government’s intentions for the next Parliamentary term would include further Business Growth Agenda initiatives, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan...
    Scoop politics | 21-10
  • Green MP to speak at panel on Rainbow Mental Health
    Hamilton, New Zealand: Recently re-elected Green Party MP Jan Logie will be a guest speaker at a panel on the mental health of Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Trangender, Takataapui and Intersex people taking place on November 1st as part of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Evidence Supports GE Moratorium
    Federated Farmers spokesman Graham Smith's call for a 'rethink' on release of GeneticallyEngineered organisms is misguided, and instead it is time for a formal moratorium on GMOs in the environment.(1)...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Chatham Rise mining could have impact on whales and dolphins
    Wellington, 21 October 2014--Mining phosphate on the Chatham Rise, off the east coast of New Zealand’s south island, could potentially have many impacts on marine mammals like whales and dolphins, the Environmental Protection Agency was told today....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Council endorses Nanaia Mahuta as the next Labour leader
    Te Kaunihera Māori, the Māori Council of the New Zealand Labour Party, have passed a resolution to endorse the Hon Nanaia Mahuta as the next leader of the Labour Party...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Kaumatua to organise petition to end Maori seats
    Ngapuhi kaumatua David Rankin has announced that he will be organising a nationwide petition to seek support from Maori voters to end the Maori seats. “These seats are patronising”, he says. “They imply we need a special status, and that...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Announcing a New Voice for The Left
    Josh Forman is pleased to announce the creation of a new force on the Left of politics in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Public services held back by poor workplace culture
    A new report by Victoria University’s Centre for Labour, Employment and Work shows that public servants are working significant unpaid overtime to ensure the public services New Zealanders value are able to continue....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • iPredict New Zealand Weekly Economic & Political Update
    Andrew Little’s probability of being the next leader of the Labour Party has reached 70% and Jacinda Ardern is favourite to become his deputy, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Prison Drug Treatment Unit marks a milestone
    Christchurch Men’s Prison’s Drug Treatment Unit (DTU) celebrated the completion of its 50th six month Drug and Alcohol Programme today, with the graduation of a further twelve offenders....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Security Council seat a chance for NZ to empower women
    The UN Women National Committee Aotearoa New Zealand (UN Women NCANZ) welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the United Nations Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use its position to proactively promote effective implementation of the...
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Waipareira and ACC sign Partnership
    Waipareira and The Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding at Whanau Centre, Henderson – marking a special day for the West Auckland Urban Maori organisation....
    Scoop politics | 20-10
  • Humanitarian aid desperately needed in Iraq and Syria
    Global Peace and Justice Auckland is calling on the government to provide humanitarian funding for non-aligned NGOs (non-governmental organisations) in the Middle East rather than give any support whatever for the US-led military campaign in the area....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Court Judicial Decision: Dotcom v The USA: 17 October 2014
    The United States of America is seeking the extradition of Messrs Dotcom, Batato, Ortmann and Van Der Kolk. The matter has been before the Courts on numerous occasions, and no further recitation of the facts is needed....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Marshall Island poet speaks at UN climate summit
    “The fossil fuel industry is the biggest threat to our very existence as Pacific Islanders. We stand to lose our homes, our communities and our culture. But we are fighting back. This coming Friday thirty Pacific Climate Warriors, joined by...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Many tourist car accidents preventable
    Simple steps could dramatically reduce the number of accidents involving tourists, says the car review website dogandlemon.com ....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • RainbowYOUTH: 25 Years, 25 More
    In 1989, a group of young people in Auckland got together to form a support group for LGBTIQ youth. They called it Auckland Lesbian And Gay Youth (ALGY). After 25 years, several location changes, a name change, a brand reboot...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Outdated Oath shows need for Kiwi Head of State
    MPs are sworn in today and New Zealand Republic has written to MPs asking them to talk about why 121 New Zealanders elected by the people of New Zealand and standing in the New Zealand Parliament swear allegiance to another...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Council shouldn’t revenue grab from windfall valuations
    Auckland Council should state clearly they will not try and capture revenue as a result of the latest valuations and needs reminding that the City’s skyrocketing property values doesn’t change the level or cost of Council’s services, says...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • EPMU endorses Andrew Little for Labour leadership
    The National Executive of the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union unanimously endorsed Andrew Little for the role of Labour leader, at a meeting held yesterday. “I have been speaking to our workplace delegates at forums across the country over...
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • World Food Day promotes Agroecology not GE technology
    The UN has stated that agroecology is a major solution to feeding the world and caring for the earth....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Labour Names Review Team
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has appointed Bryan Gould as Convenor of its post-General Election Review. He will be joined on the Review Team by Hon Margaret Wilson, Stacey Morrison and Brian Corban....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • Contenders for Labour leadership debate for first time
    The contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party debated for the first time on TV One’s Q+A programme today....
    Scoop politics | 19-10
  • UN Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme
    New Zealand's United Nations Ambassador Jim McLay on TV One’s Q+A programme....
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • The Nation: RSA President BJ Clark & Ian Taylor, New NZ Flag
    Lisa Owen interviews RSA President BJ Clark and tech innovator Ian Taylor about changing the NZ flag...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully
    Murray McCully says New Zealanders can expect a 5-10 year engagement against Islamic State if we join military action in Iraq and the government will take that “very carefully into account”...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • Lisa Owen interviews Julia Gillard
    Julia Gillard says there is “sufficient evidence” to fight Islamic State and does not think it will increase the risk of a domestic attack...
    Scoop politics | 18-10
  • NZ businesses to make child abuse a priority conversation
    Many leading New Zealand businesses have partnered with national child advocacy organisation Child Matters to participate in the fourth annual ‘Buddy Day’ - New Zealand’s only child abuse prevention awareness day....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Tribunal decision significant for SMEs
    The Human Rights Review Tribunal decided this week in favour of an employee’s right not to work on Saturdays for religious reasons. The decision may still be appealed but the Director of the Office of Human Rights Proceedings, Robert Kee,...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • On The Nation this weekend
    This weekend on The Nation… New Zealand has been elected to the United Nations Security Council, but what happens next? Lisa Owen interviews Foreign Minister Murray McCully from New York about our goals for reform, what America wants from us...
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • 1000+ supported by Te Arawa Whanau Ora
    Over 1000 individual whānau members are leading happier, healthier, more successful lives as a result of eight passionate and committed Māori organisations working at the coalface to help whānau find success....
    Scoop politics | 17-10
  • Nomination for Board Members Now Open
    CRF’s objective is to create opportunities for people from refugee backgrounds to lead fulfilling lives and contribute to every area of New Zealand society. It is an organisation that undertakes advocacy work using the strengths-based approach,...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Anglican Family Care Otago staff to take industrial action
    Social workers, family workers and support staff working for Anglican Family Care in Dunedin and South Otago will take industrial action after their employer refused a pay increase that would keep up with the rising cost of living....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Use UN Security Council role to overcome inaction and injust
    Amnesty International welcomes New Zealand winning a seat on the UN Security Council and is calling on New Zealand to use the role to ensure the body lives up to its role of safeguarding global peace and security....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Grisham’s ‘child porn’ comments ignorant
    World-renowned author John Grisham has come under fire by advocacy group Stop Demand Foundation, for comments it says trivialises the global child sex abuse trade....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Latest leak of TPPA intellectual property text confirms risk
    On the eve of the latest (non)round of negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) yet another version of the intellectual property has found its way to Wikileaks ....
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • New Zealand awarded UN Security Council seat
    International aid agency Oxfam New Zealand welcomes New Zealand’s election to the United Nations Security Council, saying it gives an extraordinary opportunity to make a lasting contribution to international peace and security and improve the lives...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • 40 more jobs lost to cheap imports
    40 more jobs lost to cheap imports Another New Zealand manufacturer is closing its doors, giving the lie to the idea that we have a “rock star” economy or any strategy for jobs growth. Wellpack is a paper bag manufacturer...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs
    Pink Batts manufacturer to cut Christchurch jobs 29 roles are to be cut at the Christchurch manufacturing facility of Tasman Insulation, the company which manufacturers the iconic Pink Batts brand of products. The company is proposing to consolidate its...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Kellogg cereal donations help the Sallies feed those in need
    Kellogg New Zealand commits 64,000 serves of breakfast cereal during World Food Day Coinciding with World Food Day this year, Kellogg New Zealand and The Salvation Army are reaching out to less fortunate Kiwis with the donation of 64,000 serves...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • National Slips, Labour Hits Lows
    National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZ parents hope for more than just happy and healthy babies
    Auckland, 16 October 2014 – What do expectant mums and dads hope for their children? According to new research from Growing Up in New Zealand , a baby’s health and happiness may be high up on the list, but today’s...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZPI backs Minister’s affordable housing stance
    NZPI backs Minister’s affordable housing stance NZPI is supportive of Hon. Dr Nick Smith’s, efforts to use the RMA as a mechanism for taking the heat out of the housing affordability challenge in New Zealand. “As Minister for Environment...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • Prime Minister’s OIA Admision Disturbing
    The Taxpayers’ Union is calling for answers after it was revealed on Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report that the Prime Minister’s office routinely flouts its obligations under the Official Information Act. Taxpayers’ Union spokesman, Ben...
    Scoop politics | 16-10
  • NZDIA forum press release
    NZDIA forum press release Wellington - The New Zealand Defence Industry Association, with the support of the NZ Defence Force and the Ministry of Defence, will be holding a two-day international forum on October 21-22 at the Michael Fowler Centre...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • BPW NZ calls fashion industry to account
    The New Zealand Federation of Business and Professional Women (BPW NZ) joins the call for action on the use of skinny models and mannequins as it is directly affecting the self-esteem and health of many of our young people....
    Scoop politics | 15-10
  • Electoral Commission introduces Extra Touch for Blind NZers
    The Electoral Commission was presented with the Extra Touch Award by the Association of Blind Citizens of New Zealand (Blind Citizens NZ), in recognition of its successful implementation of Telephone Dictation Voting ahead of its commitment to do so by...
    Scoop politics | 15-10
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