Comments on: Unemployment to 3.9%

By: dave

dave — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 21:27:21 +0000

C’mon steve, fisk my post, or just admit what I said was true. Robinsod you are retards retard. Never mind.

By: Kevyn

Kevyn — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 14:06:47 +0000

Steve, During Labour’s tenure there have been dozens of mass layoffs that I’m aware of just in Christchurch. Mostly exporters or low-tech manufacturers. IMHO the bright light on the horizon is the falling exchange rate. Too late to bring back any of the jobs that were lost but not too late protect those jobs that remain. IMHO the dollar has been seriously overvalued, relative to what the level of household indebtedness tells us about the real value of our economy, as opposed to what government indebtedness suggested.

The falling dollar and rising costs of ship fuels will probably achieve what the Buy Kiwi Made campaign has so far failed to do, create a resurgence in domestic manufacturing for domestic consumption. All those unemployed chippies and plasterers that razorlight mentioned might end up converting the abandonned factories of lost exporters to new domestic manufacturing.

By: Razorlight

Razorlight — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:20:18 +0000

Brilliant come back. Yes, yes i am retard.

By: Robinsod

Robinsod — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:16:25 +0000

Yes I am Trever Mallard. Are you a total retard? No wait… don’t answer that… let me guess… YES. Yes indeed you are a total retard. Don’t you have a goldfish to overfeed or something…

By: Razorlight

Razorlight — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:27:40 +0000

“Unlike you dave. In fact you’re not good at anything. Does that get you down?”

Are you Trevor Mallard? Or are you another want to be left wing bully.

What is the point of your comment?

Pathetic

By: Robinsod

Robinsod — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:14:45 +0000

Actually that would make a nice graph. You’re good at graphs, aren’t you?

Unlike you dave. In fact you’re not good at anything. Does that get you down?

By: dave

dave — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 11:56:52 +0000

You could start from the beginning and fisk me. Tell me where I’m wrong, and why. Because its you who is the chump, chump.

For a start you could post the numbers of transfers from both the unemployment and sickness benefits to the Invalids Benefit instead of me having to do the research for you…

Actually that would make a nice graph. You’re good at graphs, aren’t you?

Then you could post the numbers of beneficiaries that are working part time and collecting benefits – y’ know, the people who declare they are unemployed to WINZ, but declare they are employed to the HHLFS.

By: Steve Pierson

Steve Pierson — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 11:31:27 +0000

dave. I don’t know where to start. every single statement in that post is wrong or based on an incorrect premise. And, god’s sake, the labour market is subject to seasonal variations thats why they’re seasonally adjusted and we look between years, not quarters. Honestly, don’t come here trying to play number games as bad as that.

you can get away with it on kiwiblog; here you look like a chump.

By: dave

dave — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 11:23:35 +0000

Interesting to see that the figures now no longer include students getting an unemployment benefit due to finishing or a break in studies. perhaps that why overall benefit numbers are continuing to fall ..Also interesting to see that the unemployment benefit has reduced by 5k in the past year, sickness by 2k but invalids has risen by 6k – must be thousands of beneficiaries transferred to the invalids benefit in the past year to fiddle the figures…
the fact that the number of people “employed” has increased means that many are employed for the purposes of the HHLFS and are on a benefit for WINZ purposes….

Thats why more are unemployed and more have jobs. the unemployed on sickness and invalids benefits are are working part time in increasing numbers. Fun with numbers indeed..

By: Razorlight

Razorlight — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:55:07 +0000

Not looking at any stats to back up this claim but I feel things are going to get alot worst.

From the lack of work in our office, to the clients who say things are quiet, friends in the building industry who are doing cash jobs for mates to fill their day up. Everyone just seems quiet at the moment. (unless you are in PR for the Nats).

There has to be lay offs as their is no work.

I hope I am wrong but from where I am sitting every day people are telling me bad things about future employment prospects.

By: Steve Pierson

Steve Pierson — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:19:15 +0000

Well, we’re not seeing it so far – employment is growing and wages are rising fast. In the medium term though, I expect the economy to go through serious trauma along witht rest of the world as peak oil really hits, that will mean tough times for workers.. we have to ensure they have good rights when it does.

By: Razorlight

Razorlight — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:31:43 +0000

What is your opinion on some predictions that this is the beginning of a trend and we are looking at unemplyment increasing to 6%.

By: Steve Pierson

Steve Pierson — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:22:44 +0000

Yeah. the thing about a labour market is it has a lot of interia (and momentum once it’s moving).. low unemployment is self-reinforcing, it discourage businesses from firing, it encourages higher wage increase keeping domestic demand solid. On the flipside, mass layoffs or any other decrease in incomes (eg 1991 benefit cuts) not only see those people out of work, it cuts their demand and other lose their jobs.

One of the worries if unemployment does rise quickly now is that families will lose their in-work tax credits through WfF on top of losing their work income… which could add to the momentum. But, at present, the inertia seems quite strong and we might not get to that point.

By: lprent

lprent — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:15:55 +0000

Interesting – have a look at TVHE’s analysis

June 08 Labour market: Part Two (Revenge of the hours worked)

Interesting that he looks at this as showing that the labour market is stronger than previously been thought.

By: June 08 Labour market: Part Two (Revenge of the hours worked) « The visible hand in economics

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:07:23 +0000

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