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Volcanoes and climate change

Written By: - Date published: 11:00 am, April 19th, 2010 - 89 comments
Categories: climate change, science - Tags: ,

The eruption of the volcano under Eyjafjallajokull glacier in Iceland is an example of what we can expect more of due to climate change and actually has a cooling effect, slightly counteracting climate change.

Volcanic eruptions have caused temporary cooling in the past – the ‘year without a summer‘, 1816, resulted from the sulfates thrown into the stratosphere by the Tambora eruption and the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 caused that year to be about 0.5 degrees cooler in the Northern Hemisphere. But these are just temporary effects and, anyway, this eruption is nowhere near the scale of those eruptions, too small for its sulfur dioxide output to have an effect. Eyjafjallajokull is emitting only 3,000 tons a day and compared to 17 million tons from Pinatubo.

Volcanic eruptions also emit carbon dioxide. Not generally enough to offset the cooling effect of the sulfur dioxide but, funnily enough, Eyjafjallajokull is having a far bigger effect on climate change (as least temporarily) by stopping carbon dioxide emissions.

With 60% of Europe’s flights grounded 200,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions per day are being avoided – that’s a touch more than New Zealand’s daily greenhouse gas output. (btw, our net emissions fell about 10% in 2008 – thanks recession!)

So, Eyjafjallajokull is having a small positive impact on climate change. Interestingly, it is thought that that eruptions like this may become more frequent due to climate change.

Eyjafjallajokull is under a glacier. The modeling suggests that climate change will cause more volcanic eruptions as ice melts. Why? Because these are massive redistributions of weight. Removing the enormous weight of a glacier or ice cap makes the land beneath it rise. If the ice is on top of a volcano, that can increase stresses on the top of the magma chamber, making an eruption more likely.

Volcanologists say that the Eyjafjallajokull glacier (which means ‘island mountain glacier, if you’re wondering) is too light and has melted too little so far to have triggered this eruption but we can look forward to more volcanic eruptions in Iceland and other frigid and geologically active regions in the decades to come.

This is one of the few major natural negative feedbacks from climate change, where rising temperatures cause a reaction with a cooling effect. Unfortunately, its not likely to be anything like enough to make up for the positive feedback – warming effect – as rising temperature melt ice caps and glaciers, and the sun’s energy strikes less reflective surfaces like bare land and sea. And compared to human emissions, volcanoes’ effects are pretty minor.

Ironically, even as our greenhouse emissions warm the globe, melting ice, promoting volcanoes to release more cooling sulfur dioxide, we are emitting less of the stuff. Sulfur dioxide is a major ingredient in smog, we emit it from burning low quality oil and coal. During the second half of the twentieth century, the smog clouds over the industrialised world canceled out about half of the warming effect of our greenhouse emissions. But now we’re cleaning up, the smog is lessening, and there’s less to counteract the warming.

89 comments on “Volcanoes and climate change”

  1. Is there any infamy that global warming is not responsible for?

    Before the week is out, I predict that priestly molestation will be blamed on global warming. It is about all that’s left.

    • Bright Red 1.1

      maybe that’s what got those priests all hot and bothered?

    • As if pouring huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere and doubling the level over a couple of hundred years could change anything …

    • Bored 1.3

      David, that is really illuminating. I had a look at your blog, could not quite work out if you are part of the journalism standard that you rail against OR if you are just in denial of reality.

      As for volcanoes being set off by global warming the jury is out, however when I studied geology at Uni many eons ago it was a recognised and measured fact that Europe was still rising as a result of the removal of the weight of ice thousands of years previously. This may indicate that even if it does happen the process takes a bloody long time.

    • Fisiani 1.4

      I thought this would be listed under comedy or irony. Cannot believe that anyone can take this seriously.

  2. Lew 2

    maybe that’s what got those priests all hot and bothered?

    BR, isn’t it obvious? Forsooth:

    Everywhere a cold climate puts a steadying hand on the human heart and brain. It gives an autumn tinge to life. Among the folk of warmer lands eternal spring holds sway. National life and temperament have the buoyancy and thoughtlessness of childhood, its charm and its weakness. These distinctions and contrasts meet us everywhere. The southern Chinese, and especially the Cantonese, is more irresponsible and hot-blooded than the Celestial of the north, though the bitter struggle for existence in the over-crowded Kwangtung province has made him quite as industrious; but on his holidays he takes his pleasure in singing, gambling, and various forms of dissipation. [...] Similar distinctions of climate and national temperament exist in the two sections of Germany. The contrast between the energetic, enterprising, self-contained Saxon of the Baltic lowland and the genial, spontaneous Bavarian or Swabian is conspicuous, though the only geographical advantage possessed by the latter is a warmer temperature attended by a sunnier sky. He contains in his blood a considerable infusion of the Alpine stock and is therefore racially differentiated from the northern Teuton, but this hardly accounts for the difference of temperament, because the same Alpine stock is plodding, earnest and rather stolid on the northern slope of the Alps, but in the warm air and sunshine of the southern slope, it abates these qualities and conforms more nearly to the Italian type of character. The North Italian, however, presents a striking contrast to the indolent, irresponsible, improvident citizens of Naples, Calabria and Sicily, who belong to the contrasted Mediterranean race, and have been longer subjected to the relaxing effects of sub-tropical heat. [...] Transfer to the Tropics tends to relax the mental and moral fiber, induces indolence, self-indulgences and various excesses which lower the physical tone. The social control of public opinion in the new environment is weak, while temptation, due to both climatic and social causes, is peculiarly strong.

    — Ellen Churchill Semple, Influences Of Geographic Environment On The Basis Of Ratzel’s System Of Anthropo-Geography (1911) — emphasis and ellipsis mine.

    ;)

    L

    • Pat 2.1

      Geez Lew. The fact that you got hold of that piece so quickly is scary. You need to get out more. Like actually outside. Go down to the animal shelter and get yourself a dog or something.

      • Lew 2.1.1

        There there, Pat. I just googled “cold climate civilisation”.

        L

      • Rex Widerstrom 2.1.2

        It’s strange how the mind works. As soon as I read “Vulcanism is on the rise” I pictured pudgy male virgins in lycra suits and fake pointy ears saying “live long and prosper” to one another.

    • RedLogix 2.2

      If nothing else Lew, poverty in a warm climate while unedifying, is survivable… whereas in a cold one it is inevitably fatal.

      Hence the preponderance of pro-social societies in colder climes I would imagine.

      • Lew 2.2.1

        RL — yeah. Reread the passage, mentally substituting references to a warm climate for references to a society with a functional safety net (and the opposite) — that gives you a pretty passable rendition of the modern anti-welfarist argument.

        L

  3. tsmithfield 3

    Here is an interesting article in New Scientist that points to a very strong correlation between cold periods in Europe such as the little ice-age and reduced sunspot activity. The author suggests that Europe could be in for some more cold years.

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627564.800-quiet-sun-puts-europe-on-ice.html?full=true

    • Bright Red 3.1

      yup. there are multiple variables that determine climate.

      Relying on one that is outside our control to cancel out another that is inside our control doesn’t seem wise though eh?

      ‘sunspots will save us from climate change!’

      They just better hope the Altantic conveyor doesn’t shut down.

    • lprent 3.2

      Northwest Europe is a regional climatic abnormality largely caused by the strange shape of the Atlantic. It remains abnormally warm because of the Gulf Stream concentrates warm water northwards. But it is an region that is extraordinarily sensitive to minor changes in climate parameters from outside of the region (at least compared to the rest of the world).

      For instance the abnormal warmth in the Arctic this northern winter pushing larger than usual cold-air masses into Europe…

      The sunspot correlation has been known for quite some time. The most likely reason is that it affects the amount of warmth pushed into the Gulf Stream and transported northwards. The effect at the Caribbean is minor. The effect in Northwest Europe is immense….

      • Gareth 3.2.1

        The sunspot/cold winter in the EU hypothesis is that low solar activity affects stratospheric winds, and this has an impact on the incidence of “blocking” patterns over Western Europe. You need a big high pressure anchored over Scandinavia or thereabouts to prevent the normal warm westerlies reaching Britain. More at Nature News. Interestingly, it was persistent blocking to the east of NZ which caused last year’s cold winter.

  4. (btw, our net emissions fell about 10% in 2008 thanks recession!)

    Thanks ETS! The big driver ofthe reduction was the cessation of deforestation. If you make forest-owners pay the social cost of cutting down trees, they stop doing it. Who’d have thunk it?

    • Sonny Blount 4.1

      And who planted the trees that sequestered all that carbon in the first place? Forestry Investors…

      And BTW, cutting down a tree is basically carbon neutral. It is what happens to the resulting logs that matters (ie if they go into a house than most of the carbon remains sequestered)

  5. lprent 5

    Thanks Gareth. That is a interesting new study, and it is pretty plausible. I was aware of the correlation and the speculations on cause. Hadn’t thought about the uv implications in the stratosphere. Offhand it looks like there is enough adsorbed energy from the extra uv to drive the changes.

    I wonder what the same effect does with the jetstreams around Antarctica

  6. Uhm havent these babies always erupted thru out history?

    • lprent 6.1

      Yep, they are sporadic in nature though. At present we get a major eruption every few decades (this one isn’t one of those as Marty pointed out) and eruptions of this magnitude at least every few years.

      What is unusual about this one is its position and the amount of fine ash it is pumping out.

      Its position means that the ash cloud is going directly into one of the most crowded air-spaces world wide.

      Normally most of the eruptions in Iceland are basaltic and don’t emit much ash and even that is pretty limited in duration. In NZ the most recent basaltic eruption was Rangitoto. Worldwide, probably the ongoing eruptions in Hawaii. However this one is andesitic..

      http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/04/eyjafjallajokull_eruption_cont.php

      UPDATE 2: Eruptions reader Hanns posted new compositional analysis of the ash from the explosive eruption. Most is ~57-58 wt% silica, which makes it andesitic overall. This is a change from the basaltic magma of the earlier fissure vent eruptions. The question is whether the change means that the basaltic magma is mixing and/or assimilation the rhyolitic crystal mush in the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic edifice, or something else is being tapped. The ash is fairly Ti and Fe rich as well, which might suggest a large component of the more primitive basalts from earlier in the eruption. Now we just need to get a hold of an actual chunk of the tephra to see the textures!

      Those are more like White Island. Thats going to be a problem for Europe as they tend to go on for quite some time with punctuated explosions..

      From what I’m reading, the ash is also looks unusually fine. That is likely to be because the explosive eruption tore through a bloody large chunk of ice. Extremely hot magma, high in silica mets frozen water and the resulting explosion leaves fragments of material that has major fractures and a very fine ash.

      That doesn’t happen very often…

      http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/04/eyjafjallajokull_eruption_upda.php

      The Icelandic Met Office is heading up to the volcano to conduct a survey of the crater area to find out (1) what it looks like and (2) how much new water (i.e., ice) is there available for the erupting magma. More water is likely to mean more explosive eruptions in this phreatoplinian style – however, like I mentioned yesterday, the bulk andesitic composition of the ash implies it might have a decent ability to produce explosive eruptions without a lot of extra water (but it helps).

  7. nzfp 7

    Hey Marty,
    You said “and actually has a cooling effect, slightly counteracting climate change.” I’m confused, isn’t the cooling effect a change in climate in itself? Or by “climate change” do you mean Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)? If you mean AGW would you please say AGW because a cooling of the planet due to a downturn in solar activity is by definition “Climate Change” as well.

    You said “Volcanic eruptions also emit carbon dioxide” can you tell me how much we should tax Iceland for all the CO2 and other pollutants their Volcano is pouring into the atmosphere? Bear in mind that Iceland just voted to kick out the banks as well as Gordon Brown for bankrupting them so they probably don’t have much money.

    While we are working out how much to carbon tax the Icelanders, can you tell me who should pay the tax for all the undersea Volcano’s erupting in the Pacific ocean? Or how about the ScienceDaily (June 26, 2008) article titled “Fire Under Arctic Ice: Volcanoes Have Been Blowing Their Tops In The Deep Ocean”

    ScienceDaily (June 26, 2008) — A research team led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) has uncovered evidence of explosive volcanic eruptions deep beneath the ice-covered surface of the Arctic Ocean. Such violent eruptions of splintered, fragmented rock–known as pyroclastic deposits — were not thought possible at great ocean depths because of the intense weight and pressure of water and because of the composition of seafloor magma and rock.

    The ScienceDaily article reports “that a tremendous blast of CO2 was released into the water column during the explosive eruption” – considering this, who should be paying all the carbon tax for all these CO2 events occuring from erupting undersea volcanos?

    Actually can anybody tell me how many Volcanos are erupting under the sea? Does anybody know? If nobody know’s how many volcanic events are occuring around the world, how do we know how much CO2 is being released into the atmosphere and consequently how do we know what percentage of that CO2 is due to our labour? I thought the Science was Settled so surely the IPCC knows where every single volcano is on the planet and not only that the IPCC know’s how much CO2 is being released and the IPCC knows that all of the volcanic CO2 released by every volcano on the planet is inconsequential compared to our labour.

    I guess the next time Ruapehu or White Island erupts all us Kiwi’s need to dig deep into our wallets and cough up for Nobel Peace laureate and all around good guy Al Gore, the UN and the IPCC.

    • Draco T Bastard 7.1

      The stupid, it hurtssss…

    • lprent 7.2

      The release of greenhouse gases from volcanoes annually on average is currently about 1/130 of the current annual release by humans from fossilized carbon.

      There are some pretty good estimates of volcanic releases under water. You can read volcanic events with seismographs because they cause earthquakes. The gases from underwater volcanic events are adsorbed directly by the water unless they’re close to the surface, and are a lot less likely to cause issues in the atmosphere.

      Quite simply volcanic events are not a major issue for gas induced climate change because their effects would normally get buffered. However they are likely to get more significant because humans have been shoving their emissions garbage into all of the buffers and are steadily clogging them up.

      Perhaps you should learn some earth sciences if you’re concerned about these things? At present you look ignorant about the basics to me.

      • nzfp 7.2.1

        Hey lprent
        you said “The release of greenhouse gases from volcanoes annually on average is currently about 1/130 of the current annual release by humans from fossilized carbon.” would you provide a citation for this estimate please.

        You said “Perhaps you should learn some earth sciences if you’re concerned about these things? At present you look ignorant about the basics to me.”

        Well I did ask the question. By the way, the ScienceDaily article referenced above comments:

        “Are pyroclastic eruptions more common than we thought, or is there something special about the conditions along the Gakkel Ridge?” said Reves-Sohn. “That is our next question.”

        The phrase “more common then we thought” suggests that there is a level of uncertainty in the settled science of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).

        I am not asserting that the science is settled, neither did Galileo when he published his theory that the Earth revolved around the sun. The science was settled then too and the overwhelming majority supported the Vaticans view that the earth was the center of the universe.

        Now please – citations to support your assertions please as we know baseless assertions can be disregarded as mere speculation and opinion.

        Draco,
        If you have nothing but logical fallacies (appeal to ridicule and ad hominem) to add to a discussion, I suggest you refrain. Your lack of tact speaks volumes for your character and your inability to hold an opposing view in a debate. There is a word in Maori to describe people like you in the context of oral debate – koretake.

        • NickS 7.2.1.1

          The Stupid, it Burns

          The phrase “more common then we thought’ suggests that there is a level of uncertainty in the settled science of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW).

          ctrl F provides a search function within a browser, using this we can then examine the body of the text of the article for instances of the word “climate”, in doing this we find no instances of “climate” within the article. Indeed, engaging in reading the article, it is easy to draw from it that it discusses only undersea volcanism, and to which the quote you use is directed at holes in our knowledge of undersea volcanism.

          Which means that your conclusions post this quote is a rather perplexing since you fail to mention even elementary steps in logic required to link the quote to your conclusions, presenting an example of “jumping to conclusions”. Of course, looking at your previous post it’s clear you’re using the “volcanoes emit more CO2 than human sources”, which is somewhat strange since you haven’t actually gone and riffled through the literature for the actual papers on volcanic CO2 emissions, though admittedly the key words aren’t easy to generate. But none the less, a quick google brings up a rather good, referenced rebuttal, which includes the paper Morner & Etiope (2002) Carbon degassing from the lithosphere which goes over all the stuff you’d love to know about working out global estimates of volcanic CO2 emissions. Then there’s also working out the sources of CO2 in the atmosphere, for which if you even bother reading the linked to reference’s methodology sections it’s fairly clear how it is worked it out via isotope analysis and measuring the seasonal dip in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

          However, back to quote I’ve taken from you, your conclusion, even taking into account your previous post, is still highly flawed, as you’ve failed to show any evidence supporting your claims, i.e. you should be showing us literature that provides evidence that volcanic CO2 emissions outweigh anthropogenic sources, let alone any serious flaws with the methodologies used.

          Now to the FUN part /evil grin

          I am not asserting that the science is settled, neither did Galileo when he published his theory that the Earth revolved around the sun. The science was settled then too and the overwhelming majority supported the Vaticans view that the earth was the center of the universe.

          MEGA HISTORY FAIL, or how about reading up the history of Galileo, as from my history and philosophy of science lectures, it was pretty clear Galileo’s snarkiness in Dialogue Concerning the Chief Two World Systems drove the Catholic Church’s actions against him, and that comparing the public reaction of then to now, is incredibly stupid given the rather significant changes in public education etc that have occurred since the 17th century.

          Also, hello the Galileo gambit.

          • nzfp 7.2.1.1.1

            ctrl F provides a search function within a browser

            Appeal to ridicule – just get to your point.

            engaging in reading the article, it is easy to draw from it that it discusses only undersea volcanism

            Read the rest of my comment – I’m only discussing undersea volcanos – but thank you for supporting my point – by the way, you can use ctrl-F to search the rest of my comment to prove it to yourself.

            “volcanoes emit more CO2 than human sources’

            So you say so yourself – this is an example of the “Straw Man” logical fallacy – but since you are describing what I said don’t let logical fallacies stop you. Use ctrl-F to read the rest of my comment and you will note that it pertains entirely to what we do and don’t know about CO2 emmissions from all sources. This comment used volcanos as an example as it is posted in an article about volcanos, you may have noticed this because that is the article I’m commenting on. If you read further down you’ll see other references to other CO2 emmissions and their consequences in other comments I made.

            But back to the straw man – your comment here can also be disregarded as irrelevant.

            Now to the FUN part /evil grin

            More ad-hominem

            MEGA HISTORY FAIL, or how about reading up the history of Galileo, as from my history and philosophy of science lectures, it was pretty clear Galileo’s snarkiness in Dialogue Concerning the Chief Two World Systems drove the Catholic Church’s actions against him, and that comparing the public reaction of then to now, is incredibly stupid given the rather significant changes in public education etc that have occurred since the 17th century.

            How is this relevant? The point still stands – Galileo was placed in house arrest for having an opposing view to the “Settled Science”. You are not contesting this fact and you are well aware that it was the intention of the comment – consequently you are engaging in the logical fallacy “red herring”. Your comment is irrelevant and can be disregarded

            • NickS 7.2.1.1.1.1

              Lawl wut?

              Oh joy, tone trolling.

              So you say so yourself this is an example of the “Straw Man’ logical fallacy but since you are describing what I said don’t let logical fallacies stop you. Use ctrl-F to read the rest of my comment and you will note that it pertains entirely to what we do and don’t know about CO2 emmissions from all sources. This comment used volcanos as an example as it is posted in an article about volcanos, you may have noticed this because that is the article I’m commenting on. If you read further down you’ll see other references to other CO2 emmissions and their consequences in other comments I made.

              Lawl wut?

              The problem, is fairly easy to read between the lines of your post and see that what you’re implying is related to that canard, in fact you’re rather concerned with it in your comments, and haven’t actually presented any evidence from the peer reviewed literature on the topic at all, instead trying to weave together sources on under water eruptions to paint a picture of IPCC not paying attention to undersea volcanic emissions, where as it’s clear from a quick check that this is not the case, and we know the sources of atmospheric CO2 fairly well.

              How is this relevant? The point still stands Galileo was placed in house arrest for having an opposing view to the “Settled Science’. You are not contesting this fact and you are well aware that it was the intention of the comment consequently you are engaging in the logical fallacy “red herring’. Your comment is irrelevant and can be disregarded
              History father-f*cker, do you ken it?

              Or more to point, do you understand the concept of what anachronism is and why it’s considered a stupid thing to make when looking at history?

              Because if you don’t, then yes are going to see that part of my post irrelevant, because you’re going to fail to understand that comparing the 17th century socio-political and philosophical grounding directly towards the modern day ignores huge swathes of historical and current details involved with the changes from then till now, particularly in science and it’s relation to the rest of society. Without any given reason than it seems “just because” to create a historiography that suits your aims, in such a way that would have you heavily failed in a history essay/thesis. So, please, do tell, why is the historical details of Galileo’s situation completely irrelevant? Given you’re making an absolutely clear anachronism here.

              Not only that, the entire point of that piece was to note that it wasn’t Galileo’s arguments as such, but the tone at which he put them in that caused his problems, an issue of tone that ironically you’re busy complaining about. But more so, how the hell the 17th century Catholic Church is somehow a good fit to the IPCC and scientific journals of the now is somewhat difficult to comprehend.

              Thus, your argument it’s red herring when it’s pointing out issues with the historiography your using is somewhat dubious to put it politely.

              • nzfp

                NickS

                The problem, is fairly easy to read between the lines

                Which makes your comment a straw man, you are creating a meaning and context and attacking it.

                So, please, do tell, why is the historical details of Galileo’s situation completely irrelevant?

                … and begging the question. I made no such claim, however your comment about the syntax of my language is irrelevant – that point was made quite clear to you and the point still stands – Galileo’s assertions ran against the political environment of his time and Galileo suffered for it. The political importance of the Vatican in the 1600’s is compared to the United Nations and Wall Street today, as such the reference to Galileo in this context is also relevant – the “settled science” is politicised, just as Galileos Dialogues were politicised.

                As for begging the question – you have assumed that I have questioned the relevance of Galileos historical context, as shown above this is not true, instead I called your ad-hominem and appeal to ridicule not to mention appeal to authority arguments about the “nature” of Galileos house arrest irrelevant – the point still stands and your comments are still irrelevant.

                Also your ad-hominem and insults do not make your assertions any more correct. Tone Trolling, really. How is your reference to this relevant to anything – unless it’s another attempt at ad-hominem and appeal to ridicule. Grow up.

              • NickS

                The political importance of the Vatican in the 1600’s is compared to the United Nations and Wall Street today, as such the reference to Galileo in this context is also relevant the “settled science’ is politicised, just as Galileos Dialogues were politicised.
                Yay.

                Could someone please care to highlight the social political, philosophical etc differences that make a direct comparison somewhat difficult, say the changes from natural philosophy to modern science, in terms of the role of religion within natural philosophy vs modern science? Because nzfp doesn’t seem to realise the influence these can have per all the lovely social science work done over the last half a century in terms of how people and groups process information…

                Grow up

                Welcome to the internet, please prepare to be goatse’d

                As for begging the question you have assumed that I have questioned the relevance of Galileos historical context, as shown above this is not true, instead I called your ad-hominem and appeal to ridicule not to mention appeal to authority arguments about the “nature’ of Galileos house arrest irrelevant the point still stands and your comments are still irrelevant.

                1) lawl wut

                2) you clearly rejected, and continue to reject any historical details about Galileo’s house arrest and the background involved as superfluous, creating a clear anachronism.

                3) Ad hominem is only a fallacy if it’s the primary argument used against someone, please note there are other arguments here, arguments you’ve failed to refute thus far…

          • nzfp 7.2.1.1.2

            NickS you are also guilty of the logical fallacy “composition”. Why don’t you try answering the rest of the questions that you, lprent and Draco haven’t bothered with.

            I liked your links though – thanks for those – I did ask for citations earlier.

            Drop the ad-hominem and stick to the discussion – it’s just rude.

            • NickS 7.2.1.1.2.1

              /groan

              Science father-f*cker, do you ken it? Because how the hell that fallacy applies to drawing off scientific literature escapes me.

              Also, how about going over to the likes of realclimate, Open Mind and other resources and answering those questions yourself by reading?

              Sheesh, it’s like arguing with a young earth creationist of the Hovind variety.

              • nzfp

                Absolutely everything in this comment is irrelevant – ad-hominem. I’m debating you – not those other sites.

              • NickS

                . I’m debating you not those other sites.

                /facepalm

                Because educating yourself by checking over you claims on blogs and websites which discuss climate change by looking at the science and examining critically counter claims about the IPCC report and the literature on climate change is baaaad thing.

                Question’s which are exactly like the one’s you’ve made.

                And because I’m a biologist, there’s things about climate change that I don’t get, and thus will refer to these resources, because I understand that I can trust them, more so than anything out of Monckton et al’s mouths.

              • nzfp

                On March 9th, 2009 an internal Enivronmental Protection Agency (EPA) report titled ‘ Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act. By Alan Carlin NCEE/OPEI’ was released. The Executive Summary included the following points:

                Still waiting for you to get over yourself and answer Nick

          • nzfp 7.2.1.1.3

            NickS you are guilty of the logical fallacies “Circular Reasoning” and “Begging the Question”. Your reference to “working out the sources of CO2 in the atmosphere” draws entirely from the IPCC. Consequently you are using as a source of the “settled science” the same science that is in question, the science is settled because the IPCC says so, the IPCC is correct because the IPCC says so. You can use this same argument to prove God exists by reading me the bible.

            • NickS 7.2.1.1.3.1

              Except for the fact that it also has these lovely bluelinks to other peer-reviewed literature, and on top of that, please show that the IPCC report is flawed when it comes to it’s conclusions by linking to relevant scientific literature, i.e. are the IPCC’s conclusions at odds with the literature cited in the report when it comes to sources of atmospheric CO2?

            • NickS 7.2.1.1.3.2

              Consequently you are using as a source of the “settled science’ the same science that is in question, the science is settled because the IPCC says so, the IPCC is correct because the IPCC says so. You can use this same argument to prove God exists by reading me the bible.

              /groan

              It’s like watching a high schooler stumbling into a evolutionary biology (or religion) forum and proclaiming evolution is teh wrongzors…

              Nyet, I’m merely pointing towards the evidence thus far gathered, the onus is on you to show that the methods and conclusions thus reached are wrong, as to tar all the scientific work in the IPCC report with the same brush is the ye olde guilt by association fallacy

              And yes, the IPCC reports are the high bible of teh evil climate conspiracy /rolleyes

              Instead of a collection and synthesis of scientific research examining the cause(s) and consequences of observed increases in global surface and sea temperatures.

              • nzfp

                “as to tar all the scientific work in the IPCC report with the same brush is the ye olde guilt by association fallacy”

                Another straw man argument NickS, I questioned the IPCC nothing else.

                Are all your arguments logical fallacies? Are you a Sophist?

                How are the Himalayan Glaciers holding up?

                How is the 20 year global cooling trend refered to in the IPCC document treating you?

                How is your cap and trade carbon tax working out for you?

                How is tax working out for you?

                How is debt slavery working out for you?

              • nzfp

                Look NickS I’m getting no where with your sophistry – I’m going to go home – I’ll leave the last word for you and bid you good night.

                Po marie e hoa – noho ora mai ra.

              • NickS

                Another straw man argument NickS, I questioned the IPCC nothing else.
                /facepalm

                Then by all means, go forth and show us that the conclusions the IPCC draws from the scientific literature is wrong, otherwise give us scientific literature which shows the IPCC conclusions are wrong. Which you haven’t done, instead we get newspaper letters and articles, which aren’t known for scientific accuracy.

                i.e. unless you show the IPCC report’s conclusions to be wrong, I’ll continue to draw on it, as it represents the key summary of the literature on climate change.

                Are all your arguments logical fallacies? Are you a Sophist?

                Hello loaded questions.

                Actually, your entire post is nothing _but_ loaded questions.

                And yes, I don’t mind paying tax, because the Randian alternative is inhumane, and I’m a student, so debt slavery comes with the student loan agreement (it’s down in the fine print somewhere…).

              • nzfp

                Of course you’re a student – that explains your arrogance and your behaviour.

                You said “[a]nd yes, the IPCC reports are the high bible of teh evil climate conspiracy /rolleyes” – well lets examine your “high bible”.

                On March 9th, 2009 an internal Enivronmental Protection Agency (EPA) report titled ” Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act. By Alan Carlin NCEE/OPEI” was released. The Executive Summary included the following points:

                As of the best information I currently have, the GHG/CO2 hypothesis as to the cause of global warming, which this Draft TSD supports, is currently an invalid hypothesis from a scientific viewpoint because it fails a number of critical comparisons with available observable data. [...] As Feynman (1975) has said failure to conform to real world data makes it necessary from a scientific viewpoint to revise the hypothesis or abandon it [...] The failings are listed below in decreasing order of importance in my view:

                1. Lack of observed upper tropospheric heating in the tropics (see Section 2.9 for a detailed discussion).

                2. Lack of observed constant humidity levels, a very important assumption of all the IPCC models, as CO2levels have risen (see Section 1.7).

                3. The most reliable sets of global temperature data we have, using satellite microwave sounding units, show no appreciable temperature increases during the critical period 1978-1997, just when the surface station data show a pronounced rise (see Section 2.4). Satellite data after 1998 is also inconsistent with the GHG/CO2/AGW hypotheses

                4. The models used by the IPCC do not take into account or show the most important ocean oscillations which clearly do affect global temperatures, namely, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the ENSO (Section 2.4). Leaving out any major potential causes for global warming from the analysis results in the likely misattribution of the effects of these oscillations to the GHGs/CO2 and hence is likely to overstate their importance as a cause for climate change.

                5. The models and the IPCC ignored the possibility of indirect solar variability (Section 2.5), which if important would again be likely to have the effect of overstating the importance of GHGs/CO2.

                6. The models and the IPCC ignored the possibility that there may be other significant natural effects on global temperatures that we do not yet understand (Section 2.4). This possibility invalidates their statements that one must assume anthropogenic sources in order to duplicate the temperature record. The 1998 spike in global temperatures is very difficult to explain in any other way (see Section 2.4).

                7. Surface global temperature data may have been hopelessly corrupted by the urban heat island effect and other problems which may explain some portion of the warming that would otherwise be attributed to GHGs/CO2. In fact, the Draft TSD refers almost exclusively in Section 5 to surface rather than satellite data.

                Me ata panui koe i tenei korero e hoa.

              • nzfp

                NickS,
                You said “And yes, I don’t mind paying tax, because the Randian alternative is inhumane,” do you really think Ayn Rand and the Ludwig Von Mises – Austrian – school of economics is the only alternative?

                Really Nick you need to grow up.

              • nzfp

                Last comment for you tonight NickS, at the risk of cross posting, there are other alternatives to Ayn Rands economic theories. For a discussion on other alternatives have a look at a discussion I’m having with Rex and QTR on a tax bludger article post from yesterday – you can find the comments here

                Po marie e tama.

              • nzfp

                lprent,
                I “quote” what I link to because it is relevant to the point I make. I diagree with your comment – people rarely read what is linked to and as such it is important to make the point clear and to support the point with a referenced quote – hence the request for citations.

                However, this discussion is over – I can see you would rather pay “taxes” to financial CO2 derivative speculators (Blood and Gore, Enron and Ken Lay, the NZX) then dicuss true solutions that benefit all members of our society, our economy and our environment.

                [automaton voice] The science is settled – humans cause global warming therefore must pay taxes for the anthropogenic 0.117% green house effect.

                peace

                [lprent: You're repeating the same quotes. Most of your quotes are out of context amongst the ones I've read. Your quotes overwhelm any of your own statements. I suspect the same is the case in your comments in other areas of interest. It makes it a pain for other people to read.

                So I'll remove the quotes, and let you attempt to persuade people to read the links in your own words. Quoting is the exception rather than the norm around here simply because you are expected to argue your opinions and why you formed them, rather than blathering on using someone elses words.

                Think of it as good training in how to argue coherently. ]

            • Ari 7.2.1.1.3.3

              The IPCC is a consensus-based panel. The IPCC can’t say ANYTHING that isn’t UNANIMOUSLY agreed upon, and as a result it often understates the case on global warming.

              If you have legitimate issues with the IPCC report, it should be easy for any honest scientist to perform an independent peer-reviewed study that points them out. There is an absence of that particular evidence for your position, so why is it even worth listening to? Come back when you have something for show and tell.

              • nzfp

                Hi Ari and NickS

                Ari thank you for your clarification:

                The IPCC is a consensus-based panel. The IPCC can’t say ANYTHING that isn’t UNANIMOUSLY agreed upon, and as a result it often understates the case on global warming.

                If you don’t mind I’d like to turn your attention to the IPCC report – specifically a comment made earlier here:

                In an interview with PBS titled “What’s up with the weather: The Debate: Dr. S. Fred Singer”, Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service had the following to say:

                [...] Take the UN Science Advisory Group, the IPCC. In their reportwhich is a very good report, by the way which is close to 600 pages without an index, so no one really reads it except dedicated people like methere’s a five-page summary of the report that everyone reads, including politicians and the media. And if you look through the summary, you will find no mention of the fact that the weather satellite observations of the last twenty years show no global warming. In fact, a slight cooling. In fact, you will not even find satellites mentioned in the summary.

                The IPCC admits in their 600 page report “the weather satellite observations of the last twenty years show no global warming’.

              • nzfp

                Ari:

                If you have legitimate issues with the IPCC report, it should be easy for any honest scientist to perform an independent peer-reviewed study that points them out. There is an absence of that particular evidence for your position, so why is it even worth listening to? Come back when you have something for show and tell.

                Considering that the IPCC report clearly shows that the Earth is in a twenty year cooling trend I don’t have any problems with it.

                What I do have a problem with is the requirement for the poor and middle classes to pay taxes for something that isn’t happeining. The poor and middle classes of New Zealand and the world don’t need another fascist tax for the benefit of wealthy elites – like Ken Lay of Enron (follow this link and watch the documentary) who set up Al Gores Cap-and-Trade system “Blood and Gore”

              • nzfp

                Ari

                If you have legitimate issues with the IPCC report, it should be easy for any honest scientist to perform an independent peer-reviewed study that points them out. There is an absence of that particular evidence for your position, so why is it even worth listening to? Come back when you have something for show and tell.

                Well what would happen if we ask for the RAW data to apply the methods of statistical analysis described by Phil Jones to reach the same conclusions about Global Warming he did ?

                On the 14th February 2010 the UK NewsPaper the “Mail Online’ in an article titled “Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995″ reported:

                The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change [...] Professor Phil Jones [...] director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit [...] admitted that in the last 15 years there had been no ‘statistically significant’ warming[...]

                And

                [...]

                Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

                [...]

                Asked about whether he lost track of data, Professor Jones said: ‘There is some truth in that. We do have a trail of where the weather stations have come from but it’s probably not as good as it should be. [...]

                Seems you can’t peer review the work of the lead Climatologists of the IPCC. Does that scream fraud to you?

              • Draco T Bastard

                The IPCC admits in their 600 page report “the weather satellite observations of the last twenty years show no global warming’.

                Interesting, as that was what Dr. S. Fred Singer said and not the IPCC. It’s also interesting to note that all the references to that particular piece of crap only appears on CCD websites. It doesn’t appear on the IPCC website which it would do if they admitted it.

                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements
                http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/08/et-tu-lt/

                Since the satellites now clearly show that the atmosphere is warming at around the rate predicted by the models, we will report on his no-doubt imminent proclamation of a new found faith in models as soon as we hear of it

                oh, look at that, satellite readings show atmospheric warming. Yeah, the science was questioned, looked at and corrected.

              • nzfp

                Thanks Draco,

                I read the report – I admit I didn’t go into the details of the report (time withstanding) – have you? However a few things did grab my attention. You said “oh, look at that, satellite readings show atmospheric warming. Yeah, the science was questioned, looked at and corrected.”. So the data didn’t fit the model, so the data was “fixed” and it now fits the model

                In the first Science Express paper, Mears et al produce a new assessment of the MSU 2LT record and show that one of the corrections applied to the UAH MSU 2LT record had been applied incorrectly, significantly underplaying the trend in the data. This mistake has been acknowledged by the UAH team who have already updated their data (version 5.2) so that it includes the fix.

                You should read the comments at the bottom of your article too – it appears that not everyone is in agreement with the “settled Science”.

                Draco,
                Further to my comments above – your links have highlighted the important fact that the satellite debate is far from over. Your references are to studies published in 2005, consequent to those studies are other analysis on the datasets (2009). You can find the analysis here (09/10/16) a brief summary below:

                [...] The differences are like night and day. Before 1992, the trends were similar as what I found previously. But after 1992, there is strong differential warming over South America, Africa (with some cold spots) and Australia. I’ll leave it to you discuss the specifics [...]

                and here (09/10/26) a brief summary below:

                [...] The red’s seem to follow continental shape, the trend difference between UAH and RSS is related to land area! This is amazing evidence that the difference between RSS and UAH is related post 1992 to land/sea daily temperature corrections rather than other potential problems [...] No visible land/sea difference at all prior to AQUA. This means that the two satellite metrics were in reasonable agreement on how to correct for land/sea differential yet there is some slight difference by latitude. The AQUA station keeping difference demonstrates vividly above that both datasets were incorrect to the same degree for land/sea prior to the launch of AQUA. Now I’m not enough of an expert yet to correct the old pre-AQUA records for this problem yet, but this appears to be a clear problem in the entire satellite temperature record. There are many implications! [...]

                And “MSU/AMSU atmospheric temperature products. Changes from RSS Version 2.1 to RSS Version 3.0″ with the following unresolved issue:

                There also appears to be a drift between NOAA-14 (MSU) and NOAA-15(AMSU) for MSU2/AMSU5. The cause of this drift has not yet been determined. Global maps of the trend difference during the NOAA-14/NOAA-15 overlap period (1999-2005) show that the problem is greatest over wet tropical land regions, suggesting that the problem may be related to the diurnal cycle in precipitation or surface emission. Due to its smaller footprint size, AMSU may be more sensitive to the presence of precipitation than MSU. We are currently working to resolve this issue. Since we do not know whether the NOAA-14 or the NOAA-15 is closer to the truth, the data that we report includes the combined results of both satellites, and the difference between the two satellites is used to help estimate the uncertainty in the results.

                Also Draco – is this your evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing global warming and more importantly that a tax on human CO2 emmisions will resolve the issue?

                Bear in mind that in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal, Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service had the following to say:

                [...] When greenhouse contributions are listed by source, the relative overwhelming component of the natural greenhouse effect, is readily apparent.

                From Table 4a [You will need to read the article to see the figures], both natural and man-made greenhouse contributions are illustrated in this chart, in gray and green, respectively. For clarity only the man-made (anthropogenic) contributions are labeled on the chart.

                Water vapor, responsible for 95% of Earth’s greenhouse effect, is 99.999% natural (some argue, 100%). Even if we wanted to we can do nothing to change this.

                Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 contributions cause only about 0.117% of Earth’s greenhouse effect, (factoring in water vapor). This is insignificant!

                Adding up all anthropogenic greenhouse sources, the total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is around 0.28% (factoring in water vapor). [...]

                [lprent: You're starting to look like a rather tedious troll who doesn't bother to debate or argue, but just dumps quotes on the site. Adding you to auto-moderation, and I'll clean out ALL of your quotes (but leave links). Then we can see if you can actually argue coherently. ]

                • lprent

                  Ignorant: You appear to be under the misapprehension that instruments don’t have to be calibrated against each other. Different instruments measure differently, and they are always affected by extranous factors. I guess that you haven’t spent time in a lab.

                  And I see that you’re still quoting that old fool Singer again. He has managed to get himself a nice little extra pension as a mouthpiece for the industry funded climate change deniers group the Heartland Institute. But it hardly makes ANY thing he says credible.

          • nzfp 7.2.1.1.4

            NickS – you assert I am using the “Galileo Gambit”, how is this relevant to the discussion. You have to prove that I am wrong for your assertion to be correct. It is you that is asserting that the world is warming because of human activity – you need to prove your position – using circular reasoning such as references to the IPCC, Hadley CRU et al does not cut it. The onus of proof is upon the scientists who are unable to independently verify their findings – a la Phil Jones.

            • NickS 7.2.1.1.4.1

              Given your so fallacy happy, this should come as somewhat of a surprise…

              /shrug
              Guess I’m just cynical

              I am not asserting that the science is settled, neither did Galileo when he published his theory that the Earth revolved around the sun. The science was settled then too and the overwhelming majority supported the Vaticans view that the earth was the center of the universe.

              Translation:
              1) Galileo went against the settled “science” that the majority accepted
              2) I’m against the settled science, that the majority accepted
              3) therefore, I’m right

              no.3 more rather well implied there, in fact it’s a highly logical conclusion to draw from that quote in terms of the rest of your posts, and thus given the structure of the argument, a clear Galileo Gambit.

              • nzfp

                1) Galileo went against the settled “science’ that the majority accepted
                2) I’m against the settled science, that the majority accepted
                3) therefore, I’m right

                Actually no – this is an example of the straw man – I made no such argument. For a “Philosophy” student I’m surprised at your inability to grasp the concept of a “Straw Man”. The comaprison to Galileo is relevant – you probably haven’t read the comments above so I won’t repeat them. Needless to say read 20 April 2010 at 4:39 pm

                NickS calm down – you’re losing your cool.

              • nzfp

                Nick for your clarification – your point 3. is the problem – you said “no.3 more rather well implied there” – implies is the problem. Again as the definition of straw man you created the context and attacked it. I’ve already clarified my position above which makes your straw man irrelevant.

                But get back to the facts NickS – how much should we tax Iceland for the CO2 emmissions of their volcano and who should pay for the CO2 emmissions of the other known and unknown volcanos?

              • NickS

                Why is the implication wrong? as it’s clearly strongly implied in what you said.

              • nzfp

                Implied according to you – context created straw man

              • NickS

                And why are implications straw man again?

              • NickS

                But get back to the facts NickS how much should we tax Iceland for the CO2 emmissions of their volcano and who should pay for the CO2 emmissions of the other known and unknown volcanos?

                lawl wut?

                The current cap and trade schemes only relate to human caused CO2 (and equivalents) emissions, not natural CO2 emissions, such as those that stem from volcanic systems etc. So this question is entirely nonsensical.

                Where the frak did you get this idea?

              • nzfp

                NickS do you understand the concept if “irony”?

                For your clarification please find below the definition of straw man:

                The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person’s actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. This sort of “reasoning” has the following pattern:

                1. Person A has position X.
                2. Person B presents position Y (which is a distorted version of X).
                3. Person B attacks position Y.
                4. Therefore X is false/incorrect/flawed.

              • NickS

                NickS do you understand the concept if “irony’?

                Oh I do, the question is do you understand the word “hypocrite”? Since you made absolutely no connection with the piece I quoted to any of my statements, making it your statement not a strawman, but a red herring.

                Rather sad dodge attempt there.

              • nzfp

                I think your Straw Man focus on Galileo is a dodge there NickS. Lets get back to the facts and science eh.

                Care to comment on the EPA?

                On March 9th, 2009 an internal Enivronmental Protection Agency (EPA) report titled ‘ Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act. By Alan Carlin NCEE/OPEI’ was released.

                Oh and while you’re at it – maybe you can explain why a TAX is the solution to environmental responsibility.

              • nzfp

                3) therefore, I’m right

                … is the straw man, I discussed it here

                You assert “2) I’m against the settled science, that the majority accepted” this is also begging the question as you make the claim that “I” am against the “settled science”, however no such claim was made. Re-read the comments carefully – that’s what “ata panui” means.

                Continuing down this path is in itself a straw man as it demonstrates you are unwilling to engage in the debate but would prefer to argue syntactics – consequently you are engaging in sophistry.

              • nzfp

                Nick you said:

                The current cap and trade schemes only relate to human caused CO2 (and equivalents) emissions, not natural CO2 emissions

                You may be interested to know that in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal, Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service had the following to say:

                [...] When greenhouse contributions are listed by source, the relative overwhelming component of the natural greenhouse effect, is readily apparent.

                From Table 4a [You will need to read the article to see the figures], both natural and man-made greenhouse contributions are illustrated in this chart, in gray and green, respectively. For clarity only the man-made (anthropogenic) contributions are labeled on the chart.

                Water vapor, responsible for 95% of Earth’s greenhouse effect, is 99.999% natural (some argue, 100%). Even if we wanted to we can do nothing to change this.

                Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 contributions cause only about 0.117% of Earth’s greenhouse effect, (factoring in water vapor). This is insignificant!

                Adding up all anthropogenic greenhouse sources, the total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is around 0.28% (factoring in water vapor). [...]

                Lets highlight what’s important Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 contributions cause only about 0.117% of Earth’s greenhouse effect but yet you said:

                The current cap and trade schemes only relate to human caused CO2 (and equivalents) emissions, not natural CO2 emissions

                Seems kinda irrelevant really.

                NickS there are other ways to tackle environmental responsibility.

                Consider this (it’s worth you reading this link). In an article written in November 5th, 2007 titled “Sustainable Energy Development: How Costs Can Be Cut In Half” author Ellen Brown states:

                Governments have the sovereign right to create money and to lend it. The United Nations could assume that right as well, [...] government-issued or U.N.-issued money could be used for sustainable energy projects without causing inflation, and this could be profitably done even by impoverished governments with weak legal structures and immature government accountability mechanisms.

                Credit created by governments or the United Nations would have the advantage that it could be issued interest-free. Eliminating the cost of interest could cut production costs dramatically. Interest composes as much as 77% of the cost of capital-intensive goods [...] the overall average cost of interest has been estimated at about half of everything we buy. If money for alternative energy projects were issued interest-free, projects that have been considered unsustainable because of the burden of interest could become not only self-sustaining but highly profitable for the funding governments. [...] Interest-free credit could turn alternative energy proposals that would have been priced out of the private credit market into profitable venture

                • lprent

                  So what. If we were sitting with no atmosphere, then our temperature range would be the same as the moon. Heading towards towards absolute zero during the night and towards melting lead during the day.

                  It is the difference to how our biosphere operates and specifically how human civilization survives that is of interest. That only requires small changes to cause problems because of the current balanced nature of the climate systems and also of our agricultural systems feeding our population.

                  Fred Singer is an old fool who has acquired a niche for himself speaking for corporations. He hasn’t done any science in a long long time. Quoting him just means that you really haven’t done any research on the topic.

                  Go and learn some science… You really aren’t worth debating with, even if I wasn’t sick today. You simply don’t understand enough of the basics. Instead you just sprout meaningless quotes that you don’t even understand.

                  Basically you look like a fool.

            • NickS 7.2.1.1.4.2

              This just in, arguing from teh science means you’re making a circular fallacy, which I guess means all of teh science is teh wrongzors!!!!111!

              /groan

              Need coffee, urge to mock overcoming urge to wield science cluebat.

              Also:
              http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2006/05/there-is-no-evidence.php

              • nzfp

                I have no idea what you said here – I guess like everything else you’ve posted to date it’s irrelevant.

                NickS – click the button that says “Request Delete” and go grab a coffee.

                Do you know what a Sophist is? That’s you.

              • NickS

                Lawl wut?

                Also, nice trolling.

              • nzfp

                What does lawl wut mean – speak English or Maori, signing is difficult on this platform but I’m fluent in the other two NZ languages.

              • NickS

                google, it’s only a tab away…

              • nzfp

                Just tell me NickS – I don’t use google.

              • NickS

                Then just use another search engine.

              • nzfp

                While you are teaching me how to google Nick, why don’t you google “Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act. By Alan Carlin NCEE/OPEI’ it was released March 2009.

              • nzfp

                Hey Nick, I just googled “Comments on Draft Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act. By Alan Carlin NCEE/OPEI’ and the first link was from a site “Watts up with that”. I guess this is the “Watts” guy lprent spoke about.

      • nzfp 7.2.2

        lprent and Draco,
        Would you also answer the questions posed in my comments:

        1. Who should pay Icelands carbon bill for the volcano
        2. Who should pay the carbon bills for all the other volcanos known or unknown around the world
        3. Is Climate Change Anthropogenic Global Warming?
        4. Does a cooling trend for the planet imply “climate change” as well?

        While you’re at it could you answer the questions implied in your responses:

        5. What evidence do you have that the volume of CO2 gas emitted by volcanos is “1/130″ of human emissions
        6. What evidence do you have that Anthropogenic CO2 emissions is harmful to our ecosystem
        7. What evidence do you have that the Earth is warming?

      • nzfp 7.2.3

        lprent and Draco,
        July 2, 2009 the ScienceDaily reported “New Kind Of Undersea Eruption Defined: ‘Neptunian'”

        New Kind Of Undersea Eruption Defined: ‘Neptunian’
        ScienceDaily (July 2, 2009) — Two Australian researchers have defined a newly recognized kind of explosive eruption, termed “neptunian,” that is restricted to seafloor volcanoes.

        For the settled science of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) now redefined as Climate Change – but only huiman caused global warming climate change and not global planetary cooling climate change – there seem to be a lot of new “discoveries” in the Earth Sciences.

        • lprent 7.2.3.1

          Science is never ‘settled’, and earth sciences have been changing and adapting to new data ever since I did my undergrad degree in it nearly 30 years ago.

          However the probability of humans causing the majority of the observed climate change over the last century have been rising during the last 30 years. It was a hypothesis then, it is close to a certainty now.

          Perhaps you should learn some science rather than relying on the ignorant ravings of Watts and others..

          • nzfp 7.2.3.1.1

            “The Science is Settled” is not my catch phrase – you know as well as I do that it is the catch phrase of the AGW adherents.

            Again lprent – drop the ad hominem and personal insults and stick to the facts. Re-read my comments and you’ll find I’ve ventured nothing as rude!

            you assert:

            However the probability of humans causing the majority of the observed climate change over the last century have been rising during the last 30 years. It was a hypothesis then, it is close to a certainty now.

            Well show me the evidence – I need citations, I need to see the evidence and we need to discuss it. We have opposing views on thie topic – that doesn’t mean you have to attack me personally for not agreeing with your opinion.

            Who is Watts and who are the others?

            By the way as for your references – if you can’t find an online reference – give me a book and I’ll look for it myself at one of our nations Universities.

      • nzfp 7.2.4

        lprent and Draco,

        I may be able to answer question 7, “7. What evidence do you have that the Earth is warming?” for you,. In an interview with PBS titled “What’s up with the weather: The Debate: Dr. S. Fred Singer “, Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service had the following to say:

        [...] Take the UN Science Advisory Group, the IPCC. In their report–which is a very good report, by the way…which is close to 600 pages without an index, so no one really reads it except dedicated people like me–there’s a five-page summary of the report that everyone reads, including politicians and the media. And if you look through the summary, you will find no mention of the fact that the weather satellite observations of the last twenty years show no global warming. In fact, a slight cooling. In fact, you will not even find satellites mentioned in the summary.

        The IPCC admits in their 600 page report “the weather satellite observations of the last twenty years show no global warming”.

      • nzfp 7.2.5

        lprent and Draco,

        I may be able to answer question 6, “6. What evidence do you have that Anthropogenic CO2 emissions is harmful to our ecosystem’ for you, In a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal, Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service had the following to say:

        [...] When greenhouse contributions are listed by source, the relative overwhelming component of the natural greenhouse effect, is readily apparent.

        From Table 4a [You will need to read the article to see the figures], both natural and man-made greenhouse contributions are illustrated in this chart, in gray and green, respectively. For clarity only the man-made (anthropogenic) contributions are labeled on the chart.

        Water vapor, responsible for 95% of Earth’s greenhouse effect, is 99.999% natural (some argue, 100%). Even if we wanted to we can do nothing to change this.

        Anthropogenic (man-made) CO2 contributions cause only about 0.117% of Earth’s greenhouse effect, (factoring in water vapor). This is insignificant!

        Adding up all anthropogenic greenhouse sources, the total human contribution to the greenhouse effect is around 0.28% (factoring in water vapor). [...]

      • nzfp 7.2.6

        lprent and Draco,

        I may be able to answer question 7, “7. What evidence do you have that the Earth is warming?’ for you. On the 14th February 2010 the UK NewsPaper the “Mail Online” in an article titled “Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995″ reported:

        The academic at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ affair, whose raw data is crucial to the theory of climate change [...] Professor Phil Jones [...] director of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit [...] admitted that in the last 15 years there had been no ‘statistically significant’ warming [...]

        • lprent 7.2.6.1

          Ignorant one, do you know what “statistically significant” means?

          The rest of the passage said that there had been warming since 1995, however it didn’t fall within some confidence limit (probably 95%) that the cause was from anthropogenic induced global warming. Jones also said that it was close to that level of confidence.

          What it meant was that there was slightly more than a 5% chance that the current warming was due to something other than human garbage dumping of CO2. But it was over 90% probability that it was.

          You appear to be as ignorant of statistics at the reporter that wrote that stupid headline. Perhaps you should go and learn some basic maths. In the meantime perhaps you should read the full passage and find out what he actually said rather than what a gormless reporter misinterpreted it as.

          • nzfp 7.2.6.1.1

            lprent,
            You said “Ignorant one” leave the ad hominem aside please and stick to the facts. The article also reported Jones as saying:

            [...] Colleagues say that the reason Professor Phil Jones has refused Freedom of Information requests is that he may have actually lost the relevant papers.

            [...]

            Asked about whether he lost track of data, Professor Jones said: ‘There is some truth in that. We do have a trail of where the weather stations have come from but it’s probably not as good as it should be. [...]

            Would you care to show me the RAW data so that I may apply my own statistical analysis using the methods described by Jones to reach the same conclusions as Jones? Afterall this is the Scientific Method, unless the definition of the science is settled forbids the independent peer review process.

            While you are at it would you please explain why the 600 page IPCC document shows “no mention of the fact that the weather satellite observations of the last twenty years show no global warming. In fact, a slight cooling”.

            Also while you are explaining those – would you cite for me – specifically – where the rest of the passage it states:

            however it didn’t fall within some confidence limit (probably 95%) that the cause was from anthropogenic induced global warming. Jones also said that it was close to that level of confidence

            By the way – don’t just “pick and choose” which questions to answer – that is a logical fallacy known as composition.

            Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1250872/Climategate-U-turn-Astonishment-scientist-centre-global-warming-email-row-admits-data-organised.html#ixzz0lbJFU6ad

  8. Special K (NJ) 9

    Quite predictably on schedule the Icelandic natural disaster
    Is attributed to global warming and/or climate change,
    Or the latter’s rate is said to be increased by the former:
    Of “Having one’s warming cake and eating it, too’, in the expected range.

    Addendum….
    (Can’t recall how natural disasters were evaluated
    In the days before the Prophet (Al Gore)
    (Ignoring his Harvard mentor’s negative evaluation of the thesis) took it upon himself
    To see, for the globe, Mann-made warming in store!).

  9. NickS 10

    Ugh, I’ll leave the rest of this for after work tomorrow, though nzfp, a source for the 20 year cooling claim would be nice, preferably straight from the IPCC report…

  10. nzfp 11

    Two block quotes and two naked links in your comments lprent 19 April 2010 at 7:25 pm. I got the mode for commenting from you.

    “You appear to be under the misapprehension that instruments don’t have to be calibrated against each other” That was the point I made in the comment nzfp: 21 April 2010 at 12:23 pm. However I’ve added to this in comments below.

    “I see that you’re still quoting that old fool Singer” everything in this sentence represents Circumstantial ad Hominem (against singer) and Guilt By Association and is all irrelevant. The validity of a persons argument is not weighted by the company they keep – you may as well say his arguments are invalid because he’s white. But more importantly are you asserting that Singer is wrong to state “Water vapor, responsible for 95% of Earth’s greenhouse effect, is 99.999% natural (some argue, 100%)”. Would you instead quote Wikipedia like Draco and NickS? I would hope you would quote Kiehl and Trenberth of the The National Center for Atmospheric Research which is sponsored by the National Science Foundation which has a great article about instruments which you should read that states “Current observational tools cannot account for roughly half of the heat that is believed [my emphasis because believe IS NOT a scientific term] to have built up on Earth in recent years”. Unfortunately debaters who link to wikipedia rarely – if ever – read the underlying documents or their supporting and contributing sources. In the article Trenberth himself states “[e]ither the satellite observations are incorrect, [...] or, more likely, large amounts of heat are penetrating to regions that are not adequately measured”. Regardless of which of Trenberth’s propositions is true the fact is the science is not yet settled and so solutions proposed by AGW proponents such as Al Gore and his Blood and Gore CO2 derivatives trading scheme are not solutions to environmental responsibility that we should consider.

    Further reading of Trenberth and we note that the “Earth’s surface temperatures have largely leveled off in recent years” yet we still have “melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, along with rising sea levels”. However all of these comments are in direct contradiction to the evidence of that Glaciers are growing and in most cases occilate for example the Himalayas, Alaska, Norway and so on. With regard to artic sea ice, we find that for the Greenland ice cap “[t]he overall ice thickness changes are … approximately plus 5 centimetres a year or 54 centimetres over 11 years”. To be fair the ABC article does attribute the thickening of the ice to global warming. In February 2009 we find that the artic sea ice itself “is often twice as thick as expected”. We also know that Arctic ice extent was 13% greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007 – and we also know that the extent of sea ice occilates – like Glaciers – as well and depending on the dates you quote you could appear alarmist (AGW proponent) or conservative. To be fair, we know that 6000-7000 years ago “there was more open water in the area north of Greenland than there is today”

    As for the sea levels are they really rising? Perhaps we can attribute Trenberths comments about Artic sea ice to a faulty sensor. Trenberths language could be described as alarmist at best, fallacious at worst which in turn brings into question everything else he and his co-author – Kiehl – who are referenced in wikipedia when they claim that Water Vapour “contributes 3672%” to the greenhouse effect (reference eight). So that begs the question – who is right, Trenberth and Kiehl or Singer (bear in mind Singer is white)?

  11. Just ME in T 12

    He says Iceland’s volcanic carbon emissions are good news for plant growth and the current eruptions give an indication of the potential for carbon emissions from future volcanos.

    “We are living in a period of volcanic quiescence, as we haven’t had a dirty big eruption since 1912; and this is a small eruption but it is giving us the window into what a very big eruption would be like.”

    http://just-me-in-t.blogspot.com/2010/04/volcano-climate-change.html

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    The National Party has the opportunity to show leadership by transitioning our vehicle fleet towards renewable electricity when a new contract to supply Government limousines for VIPs goes to tender next month, the Green Party said today. "This is a...
    Greens | 29-10
  • The Māori Party can’t have it both ways over labour laws
    The Māori Party has to fess up over its voting record on the Employment Relations Amendment Bill, says Labour’s Māori Caucus.  “It’s simply not good enough to oppose the bill at the same time  as they helped speed up its progress through...
    Labour | 29-10
  • Equal pay and the aged care sector
    Today the High Court upheld the historic ruling by the Employment Court that our Equal Pay Act could be used to consider work of equal value cases; the government has been telling the UN and ILO that it could for...
    Greens | 29-10
  • Court case perfect opportunity for Government to improve gender pay gap
    If the Government wants to halt New Zealand’s slump in international rankings on the gender pay gap it should act on the court finding that women deserve equal wages, Labour’s Women’s Affairs spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “The World Economic Forum’s...
    Labour | 28-10
  • All Auckland transport options should be considered
    All options for meeting Auckland's transport needs should be considered, including reprioritising the transport budget away from wasteful spending on motorways, the Green Party said today.Auckland mayor Len Brown is today releasing a transport report by the Independent Advisory Board,...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Another report highlights Govt failure on child poverty
    An international report measuring the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on child poverty rates, showing children in New Zealand have done worse than children in other countries, is further proof the Government needs to urgently take additional steps...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Address and Reply Debate Part 55: Inequality and Disability
    I rise on behalf of the Green Party to talk about inequality and disability.The recent census showed that nearly one in four New Zealanders lives with a disability—up from one in five in the previous census. These figures include some...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Address and Reply Debate Part 55: Inequality and Disability
    I rise on behalf of the Green Party to talk about inequality and disability.The recent census showed that nearly one in four New Zealanders lives with a disability—up from one in five in the previous census. These figures include some...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Child poverty: No more wake-up calls
    A new report which shows the National Government has made no inroads whatsoever into child poverty should do more than just set alarm bells ringing, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “UNICEF’s  latest Innocenti Report Card highlights the fact...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Eugenie Sage speaks in the 2014 Address in Reply Debate
    I congratulate you, Assistant Speaker Mallard, as Assistant Speaker and look forward to your knowledge, your fairness, and your light touch in being a referee of proceedings in this House. I congratulate also the other Assistant Speaker, Lindsay Tisch; the...
    Greens | 28-10
  • James Shaw’s Maiden Speech
    Tena Koe, Mr Speaker. I would like to take this opportunity to speak a little of the past, the present and the future. The privilege to serve in this Parliament was given to me by all those who gave their...
    Greens | 28-10
  • Govt airs real views on public broadcasting
    An admission by the Government that it is happy to experiment with Pacific and Maori audiences shows just how weak its vision for public broadcasting in New Zealand is, Labour’s Broadcasting spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. “National today admitted it doesn’t...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Does Judith Collins have a get out of jail card?
    Former justice minister Judith Collins appears to have been gifted a get out of jail free card based on the Prime Minister’s answers in Parliament today, Labour’s Acting Deputy Leader Annette King says. “Judith Collins claimed in an Official Information...
    Labour | 28-10
  • Solid Energy decision delay sensible
    Today’s announcement by the Board of Solid Energy that it will delay making a final decision on re-entering the Pike River mine is a sensible move, Labour’s MP for  West Coast-Tasman Damien O’Connor says. “It has been clear for some...
    Labour | 28-10
  • New York Green Bank off to a $1B start
    New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced late last week the New York Green Bank’s first NZD$1 billion tranche of green energy investments. The projects, which are difficult for the private sector to finance, are now possible by New York Green...
    Greens | 28-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Blockade the Budget
    The ‘Independent’ Police Conduct Authority’s report into the policing of student protests in 2012 is a whitewash The report released by the Independent Police Conduct Authority into the policing of student protests in 2012 is a whitewash riddled with inaccuracies....
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • When National claim new anti worker laws provide ‘flexibility’ they mea...
    And so it comes to pass. The first law National ram through as part of their victory march are new anti worker laws they pretend will generate ‘flexibility’. The new law denigrate the unions ability to protect workers and provide...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • City Transport: A Taxing Matter
    This week the prospect of paying tolls on Auckland motorways became a hot topic. (See Mathew Dearnaley:Motorway tolling could hit some hard, NZ Herald, 30 Oct 2014.) As we might expect, the kneejerk response has been quite negative. But, as with...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Open Letter to Amy Adams: Please Reopen The Review Into Sexual Violence Cou...
    Ms Amy Adams, Justice and Courts Minister, Right now in this country it seems that although rape is illegal, it is not being prevented by the agents who uphold the law. It almost feels like rape is only illegal on paper,...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: Does ‘No-Surprises’ Also Apply To TVNZ News?
    When you stand back and look at NZ media outlets, most of them have at least one or two people who attempt to hold the government to account: John Campbell on TV3, Guyon Espiner and others at Radio NZ, David...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Things That Make You Go Hmmmmmmm
    Every so often in politics, a public figure comes out with something so absurd and so outlandish … that it really does just make you go “Hmmmmmmmmmm”. We’re accustomed to this from certain quarters – by mid point through the...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Poverty & inequality don’t need protest marches – they need a riot:...
    The global level of inequality continues to skyrocket… Number of billionaires doubled since financial crisis The number of billionaires has doubled since the start of the financial crisis, according to a major new report from anti-poverty campaigners. According to Oxfam,...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • If Key knows who Rawshark is…
    I’m sorry, what? John Key ‘given Rawshark’s name’The Prime Minister believes he knows who hacked Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater’s computer and produced the source material for Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics, according to a new edition of a recently published...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Child Poverty stats in NZ
    Child Poverty stats in NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 30-10
  • Crimes Act + Police Investigation = WTF
    Just to frame the farce that is the Roastbuster’s investigation and conclusion – here are the parts of the Crime Act http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/latest/whole.html#DLM329057  the Roastbusters are proven to have violated – that the police (and some suspects!) themselves acknowledge occurred: Crimes...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Publishing Journalists’ Home Addresses Is A Tactic Of The Right, Not The ...
    I think I’m starting to get rather annoyed with the conduct of some pro-MANA people over this ongoing Parliamentary Services crew complement issue. Yes, we get that there are legitimate issues to be raised with how some political reporters in...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Aucklanders caught between a tarseal-addicted government and a weak mayor
    Len Brown’s proposal for motorway tolls to reduce congestion and provide funding for better public transport is a weak response to a critical issue. The $12 billion dollar shortfall on transport funding he talks about is mainly for projected new...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • A Very Weird Story: Deconstructing Darren Aronofsky’s Noah.
    NOAH is a curious movie. Conceived as a biblical epic, it’s target audience was originally the millions of Americans who regard the Bible as God’s inerrant word. With the sin-filled works of Hollywood forbidden to these true-believers, Christian movie-makers have developed...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • You Can Get Away With Rape In New Zealand
    Jessie Hume with last years petition against rape     The police have sent a strong message today.  In fact they’ve been sending a strong message for a while; a message that our government supports. “You can literally get away...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Roast Buster case – no charges. In the immortal words of NWA…
    Roast Busters case: No prosecutions Police are to make an announcement this afternoon on Operation Clover, the investigation into the “Roast Busters” allegations. The Herald understands the victim has been told that the alleged offenders will not be prosecuted due...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Key’s flag change distraction to cost $26million!
    No. Way. Bid to change NZ flag to cost millions The cost of holding two referendums and consulting on a change of flag has been estimated to be just under $26 million. Look. We all appreciate that the sleepy hobbits...
    The Daily Blog | 29-10
  • Why NZ Herald’s Labour Party crocodile tears are so audacious
    The front page the NZ Herald would use if they thought they could get away with it No one can take the recent columns by NZ Herald seriously… John Armstrong: Shadow lingers on National John Roughan: Labour’s leadership vote matters...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • The beginning of the end of Cameron Slater?
    Slater postings on man bizarre, court told A businessman has changed his appearance and had to install extra security at his home after Whale Oil blogger Cameron Slater posted his business and personal documents online, he says. Mr Slater has...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • We are a milk power republic and Fonterra our unelected senate
    Wow. Just wow… Deputy mayor says he’ll be sacked South Taranaki deputy mayor Alex Ballantyne says he expects to be sacked because he has spoken out about the impact gasses coming from dumped Fonterra dairy products have had on his...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: “…But *actually* this is about ethics in political-game jo...
    Yesterday, a piece of mine on the recent revelations about Hone Harawira employing several gentlemen either accused or convicted of sex offences was published on The Daily Blog. Predictably, given the fierce loyalty which Hone inspires in his party faithful and...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • Privilege cheque
    There was no race problem in my childhood. Living in central Wellington I was well-insulated from what was going on not so far away. This was the 60s and 70s, where the teachers enjoyed free love in the staff room...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • A brief word on Key’s claim that it will be raining carnage
    Isis will ‘rain carnage on the world’ – John Key Left unchecked Isis would “rain carnage on the world”, Prime Minister John Key says, but he has yet to make a decision on whether New Zealand troops will join a...
    The Daily Blog | 28-10
  • Meanwhile…
    ...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • How does Andrew Little win Labour Leadership and unify the caucus?
    Audrey Young’s excellent column on how the Caucus vote  is shaping up shows how Andrew Little becomes the next leader of the Labour Party. She identifies the factions as the following… Andrew Little 6: Andrew Little, David Cunliffe, Iain Lees Galloway,...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Joe Trinder – Right of response to Curwen
    You have asked that Hone Harawira deserves to explain what happened, how would he explain when his next door neighbour is an alleged sex offender. What explanation can Hone offer he wasn’t involved, Hone had no idea this offending was...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • MEDIA WATCH: That Hella-Weird Feeling When You Defend Tova O’Brien
    Oh dear. Yesterday morning I blogged that Hone deserved a chance to explain what exactly had happened as applies his office’s Parliamentary Services crew complement – and, importantly, that we deserve to be able to judge him on the strength of...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • Canadian Green MP warns against harsh anti-terror measures
    Canada’s Green Party has provided a welcome counterpoint to Prime Minister Harper’s call for tougher anti-terrorism laws in the wake of a soldier outside the Canadian Parliament. On October 22, while she was still locked in her parliamentary office, Green...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • When is an asset sale not an asset sale? When it robs from the poor and ste...
    National have turned state housing on its head. At no time during the 2014 election did the Key Government even hint that they were going to privatise 30% of the Housing NZ stock of state homes. Not once. Key even...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part To...
    . . Continued from: Housing; broken promises, families in cars, and ideological idiocy (Part Rua) . Bill English comes clean on National’s intentions for HNZ privatisation . On 14 October, in a report on The Daily Blog, I wrote, In...
    The Daily Blog | 27-10
  • The Questions Have Been Asked – They Deserve An Answer
    A few days ago, allegations that had been percolating for some time about Hone Harawira employing three either accused or convicted sex offenders on his Parliamentary pay-roll came to light. (one imprisoned before working for MANA; one who found himself convicted and...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • I have seen one future, and it is bleak
    . . Back in  March 2012, I wrote this story regarding a march to support striking workers at Ports of Auckland. It appears there was some prescience about some of my observations at the time… . | | 18 March...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • US air strike war Key wants us in has killed a civilian a day so far
      The US air strike war that John Key wants us to join has killed a civilian a day so far. From the Washington Post... The United States launched its first airstrikes on militants in Syria on Sept. 23, and has continued...
    The Daily Blog | 26-10
  • The instant Jihad syndrome
    My favourite new term is ‘self-radicalised’ – it suggests the reasons for terrorism are totally divorced from the actions of the West. This need to suddenly ramp up terror laws because of lone wolf, self-radicalised Jihadists seems convenient and counter-productive....
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • We have nothing to fear from Ebola but fear itself
    I suspect most Americans perceive Ebola like this   I can’t work out if the fear being spread within the media about Ebola is deliberate or just ignorance. Yes Ebola is a terrible plague that kills a large percentage of...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Anjum Rahman – “Meritocracy? I wish.”
    I’d like to start by linking to a post I had published at another site in support of Nanaia Mahuta for the Labour Party leadership election.  She has a reasonable chance, given that she already has the endorsement of Te...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Chocolate milk shortage and creepy Santa? Let’s talk about real news
    Child poverty is still a scarily serious problem in this country and house prices are soaring through the roof to the point where it is simply impossible for the average New Zealander to buy a home. There is also little...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • It’s time to celebrate Kiwi schools and teachers
    Some would have you believe that New Zealand’s schools are in a state of collapse, that your children are not being educated well and that things are going to hell in a hand basket.  That there is no innovation, no...
    The Daily Blog | 25-10
  • Ideological Blitzkrieg – Privatization of state housing, more charter sch...
    Pundits in pundit land will tell you that this Government is boring, that Key is the great pragmatist and that it is his ability to create elegant solutions that keeps him the firm favourite in many Kiwi eyes. This ability...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • Hegemony rules but resistance is fertile
    The Prime Minister is a puppet. Not just our current Prime Minister, but given the forces of multinational globalisation, the role of any head of state, is less as independent actor, and more as a puppet of international trends and...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • An open Letter to Sir Bob Jones: demanding a ‘liveable wage’ is not “...
    How out of touch with reality is Sir Bob Jones? You know, that white dude who invested in privatised SOEs after the selling off of our assets in the eighties and made a ludicrous and disgusting amount of money and is...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • My insecurity about the Security Council
    As I write this (on 24 October) it is international UN Day. Of course, you all knew that already, right? Well, the day celebrates the entry into force of the UN Charter in 1945. With the ratification of this founding...
    The Daily Blog | 24-10
  • GUEST BLOG: Catherine Delahunty – Back in That House
    Parliament opened this week and I still find it a very odd place. Most of the people are reasonably courteous and friendly, but the rituals are archaic and the rules around issues like the swearing in oath are oppressive and...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Marae Investigates No More
    TVNZ yesterday announced the closure of their Māori and Pacific programmes department. That means they’ve chosen to stop making Fresh, Tagata Pasifika, Waka Huia and Marae Investigates to let independent producers get their hands on these lucrative contracts. This is...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • BLOGWATCH: An Un-Civil War in Labour, eh?
    Earlier today, my attention was directed to an entry that’s just recently appeared on the Slightly Left of Centre blog. It purports to contain the ‘inside word’ from a highly placed NZF source – which is funny, because I’m pretty sure...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Santanomics 101
    Santanomics could mean a number of things. It could be the study and practice of giving. Or it could mean the study and practice of rampant end-of-year commercialism. However, for me today it is the economics of erectingAuckland’s giant Santa...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • SkyCity boss misleads public over workers lost shifts
    SkyCity CEO Nigel Morrison has defended the employment practices at his company in an “Opinion” piece entitled “Human Capital key to corporate success” in the NZ Herald on Thursday. A number of his claims are misleading, contain only partial truths...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • Review: Perfect Place
    I went to a Perfect Place on Tuesday night, and what a delight it was. The marshmallows sweetly (and forcefully) handed out pre-show, set the tone for the next hour. Walking up the stairs at The Basement was a complete...
    The Daily Blog | 23-10
  • 5AA Australia – NZ on UN Security Council + Dirty Politics Lingers On
    5AA Australia: Selwyn Manning and Peter Godfrey deliver their weekly bulletin Across The Ditch. General round up of over night talkback issues: Thongs, Jandals and flip-flops… ISSUE 1: New Zealand has been successful in its campaign to become a non...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • When I mean me, I mean my office & when I call whaleoil I mean not as m...
    This. Is. Ludicrous. Green Party co-leader Russel Norman put the first of what are likely to be many questions about Mr Key’s relationship with Slater, asking him how many times he had phoned or texted the blogger since 2008. “None...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • A brief word on describing the Government as ‘boring and bland’
    The narrative being sown is that this Government will be a boring and bland third term. Boring and bland. Since the election, Key has announced he is privatising 30% of state houses without reinvesting any of that money back into housing society’s most...
    The Daily Blog | 22-10
  • Roast Busters: Turn Indignation into Action
    People raged about the Roast Buster case. The indignation was justified – it was horrible. “Where were their parents!?” Fair question. I am sure the Roast Busters’ parents and the victims’ parents all wish they had been more proactive in...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Stats NZ only have themselves to blame for postponement
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says Statistics NZ only have themselves to blame for the indefinite postponement of the release of the Food Price Index: November 2014....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • NZ Diversity Survey – benchmarking workplace diversity
    AUT University’s New Zealand Work Research Institute (NZWRI) has released a report on diversity in New Zealand workplaces....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Māori Language (Te Reo Māori) Bill
    Tutehounuku Korako, Chair of the Māori Affairs Committee, is inviting further public submissions on this bill. The closing date for submissions is Friday, 5 December 2014....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • ERA amendments a mixed bag
    The Employment Relations Amendment Act has the potential to put vulnerable workers in a more precarious position, says Equal Opportunities Commissioner, Dr Jackie Blue. However, the commissioner says the right for all to request flexible work hours is...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Sensible Sentencing calls for appeal of judicial activivism
    The Sensible Sentencing Trust is appalled that Justice Jill Mallon has today refused to apply the Life without Parole (LWOP) provisions of the Three Strikes law as enacted by Parliament....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Global Rally against ISIS – for Kobanê – for Humanity, Nov 1
    The New Zealand Kurdish Community will march in solidarity with Kurdistan as part of the “GLOBAL RALLY AGAINST ISIS – FOR KOBANÊ – FOR HUMANITY” on 1 November 2014, 2pm....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Does ‘No-Surprises’ Also Apply To TVNZ News?
    When you stand back and look at NZ media outlets, most of them have at least one or two people who attempt to hold the government to account: John Campbell on TV3, Guyon Espiner and others at Radio NZ, David...
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Safer roads are better for everyone
    Recent pedestrian versus vehicle incidents highlight the real issues being addressed by delegates as the 2Walk and Cycle conference concludes....
    Scoop politics | 31-10
  • Law change creates more flexible labour market
    The Employment Relations Amendment Act, passed yesterday, will bring new flexibility to the labour market and will reduce the ability of unions to organise and to recruit....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Bumper ANZ profits mean no excuse for insecure hours
    A big rise in profits at New Zealand's largest bank needs to be reflected in a better pay offer and more security around hours of work, the bank workers’ union said today....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Count down to lowered alcohol limit
    With just a month to go until a new lower alcohol limit for adult drivers comes into effect, Police and road safety agencies are reminding drivers of the impending change....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • WorkSafe Supports Forestry Review Findings
    WorkSafe NZ says the Independent Forestry Safety Review has clearly identified the problems facing an industry in which ten workers were killed last year. “The Review’s analysis matches our own view and leaves no doubt about the need for comprehensive,...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CTU welcomes forestry review recommendations
    The CTU is welcoming the today's release of the independent forestry safety review panel findings. "These recommendations must be implemented to ensure that everything possible is done to make forestry safer." CTU President, Helen Kelly said....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Activists will confront animal abusers
    Today animal rights activists will confront a group of wealth advisers who want to build the biggest egg factory-farm in New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Turia: Women’s Refuge Conference 2014
    This is a milestone moment in my life. This will be my last official address as Co-leader of the Maori Party. On Saturday night at our Hui-a-Tau, I will be standing down from that role and enabling a new co-leader,...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Rodeo Code of Welfare ‘Sick Joke’
    Animal advocacy organisation SAFE says the revised Code of Welfare for Rodeos just released is nothing but a sick joke. “Rodeo animals are goaded, tormented and forced to endure needless suffering and gross mistreatment, all for the sake of so-called...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Conservative Party applauds binding referenda on flag
    The Conservative Party are congratulating the Government on the decision to hold two binding referendums to decide the fate of New Zealand’s flag – and believes it will pave the way for binding referenda to form part of New Zealand...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Walk the Talk – Opposing violence against women
    Soroptimist International of Auckland have organised a walk on 22 November from Silo Park at the Wynyard Quarter through the Viaduct and back to Silo Park, to show their opposition to violence against women. This event hopes to raise awareness...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Recommendations on the Design of Pecuniary Penalties
    The Law Commission has reviewed the use of pecuniary penalties as a regulatory tool. Pecuniary penalties are financial penalties that policymakers are increasingly opting to use in place of criminal sanctions in order to punish and deter misconduct in...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Every worker will be affected by employment law changes
    Every worker will feel the effects of the government’s new employment laws and should join a union if they want to maintain and increase their wages and conditions, says New Zealand’s largest private sector union, the EPMU....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Shameful attack on all workers
    The Government has passed the Employment Relations Amendment Act slashing the rights of all Kiwi workers. “These changes are shameful. New Zealand now has some of the worst employment protections in the OECD. It is embarrassing that a country which...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Unnecessary law changes more to do with ideology
    The government’s employment law changes are simply ideological and are at odds with its approach in the related areas of health and safety and immigration law, FIRST Union said tonight....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CTU Runanga calls on iwi leaders
    Maori workers are calling on iwi leaders to speak out against the employment law changes expected to go through today. “Iwi leaders have previously spoken out when workers in Aotearoa have been under attack, we believe they should do so...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Educating children not the best solution to alcohol harm
    Alcohol Healthwatch says we need to look beyond educating children and young people to address deeply embedded attitudes and behaviours concerning alcohol....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • New code of welfare for rodeos released
    New standards to strengthen the animal welfare requirements for rodeos have been issued today by the Minister for Primary Industries, Nathan Guy....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • IPCA report riddle with inaccuracies, say students
    A report by the Independent Police Conduct Authority into the policing of student protests in 2012 is riddled with inaccuracies, say students who laid the original complaint with the IPCA....
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • CT v The Queen – indecency convictions quashed
    This summary is provided to assist in the understanding of the Court’s judgment. It does not comprise part of the reasons for that judgment. The full judgment with reasons is the only authoritative document. The full text of the judgment...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Rameka v The Queen – murder convictions quashed
    This summary is provided to assist in the understanding of the Court’s judgment. It does not comprise part of the reasons for that judgment. The full judgment with reasons is the only authoritative document. The full text of the judgment...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Auckland Council Out of Control
    Responding to the NZ Herald article that some Auckland households will face a rates rise of up to 9.6 per cent next year, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says: “Len Brown’s pledge to cap rates rises at 2.5 per...
    Scoop politics | 30-10
  • Stats NZ staff escalate action with ‘no more meetings’ rule
    Statistics NZ staff have voted to escalate their ongoing industrial action in an effort to get Stats NZ back to the bargaining table with a reasonable offer. The staff, who are members of the Public Service Association (PSA), have been...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Rape Crisis calls for changes to criminal justice system
    Wellington Rape Crisis has added its voice to the public outcry following the announcement that there will be no charges in the teen rape gang case. Butterworth says the decision not to lay charges will not have been a surprise...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Police action justified in Blockade the Budget demonstration
    Police actions in dealing with a demonstration in Central Auckland known as Blockade the Budget on 1 June 2012 were justified and appropriate, an Independent Police Conduct Authority report released today found....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • NZDF Joins with Australia to Commemorate WWI Centenary
    A contingent of New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) personnel will join their Australian counterparts at Australia’s first major commemoration of the First World War centenary in Albany, Western Australia this weekend....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Reserve Bank should reduce interest rate
    “The Reserve Bank should be reducing its policy interest rate, the OCR”, says CTU Economist Bill Rosenberg in response to the Bank’s announcement today that it is not increasing it....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • 2015 Stout Fellow will write about Māori & Criminal Justice
    Kim Workman, founder and advocate for the Robson Hanan Trust, which administers the Rethinking Crime and Punishment and Justspeak initiatives, has been awarded the 2015 John David Stout Fellowship at Victoria University....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • What John Key thought about ‘dirty politics’
    On September 20, John Key swept to victory to become one of New Zealand’s most successful and popular Prime Ministers. Rocked by scandal, the 2014 election campaign was one of the most brutal – and riveting – in recent history....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Trade Deal Threatens Farmers and Food Businesses
    The secret Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations are a direct threat to food businesses and farmers, and a moratorium on the release of GE crops must be enshrined in law before the TPP is signed....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • CTU announces election of new Secretary
    The contested election for the position of CTU Secretary has been won by Sam Huggard. Sam officially takes office on Monday 1 December 2014. Sam has worked in the union movement and brings a wealth of experience and a commitment...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Kim Workman awarded 2015 J.D. Stout Fellowship
    The Victoria University of Wellington 2015 J.D. Stout Fellowship, funded by the Stout Trust, has been awarded to justice reform advocate Kim Workman. Mr Workman (Ngati Kahungungu ki Wairarapa, Rangitaane) is well known for his work on criminal justice,...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • TPPA causing concern
    Concern over the secretive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) negotiations is being expressed in two public meetings over the next week; one at a presentation on 5th November by former councillor Robin Gwynn to the Napier City Council, the...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Kiwis rally to demand justice for ‘Roast Buster’ survivors
    Over 1,500 kiwis have rallied to demand justice after the announcement of the NZ Police decision not to lay charges in the ‘Roast Busters’ saga....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • New employment law will hurt the most vulnerable NZers
    The Public Service Association (PSA) says changes to the Employment Relations Act, expected to be passed in Parliament tonight, will hurt vulnerable workers and their families more than anyone....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Consultation to close on proposed place names
    The New Zealand Geographic Board (NZGB) Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa today advised that only one month remains before public consultation closes for 18 name proposals for geographic features and places around Te Ika ā Māui (the North Island)....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Operation Clover – Statement from Police Commissioner
    I have taken a close interest in this investigation and I am confident police have conducted a thorough and professional enquiry in what has been a challenging and complex case. The Operation Clover team has ensured that victims have been...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Better policy would have protected children from recession
    Child Poverty Action Group says an international report released by UNICEF today shows good policy can protect and improve child well-being, even during a recession....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Outcome of Operation Clover investigation
    Police have completed a multi-agency investigation, Operation Clover, into the activities of a group calling themselves “The Roast Busters”. The 12 month enquiry focused on incidents involving allegations of sexual offending against a number of girls...
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • False birth registration brings home detention
    A Whangarei woman who attempted to register the birth of a fictitious child to claim a sole parent benefit was sentenced to six months home detention in the Whangarei District Court today....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Family of Robert Ellis demand a proper investigation
    The family of a New Zealander killed in Indonesia are growing increasingly concerned at the lack of information they’ve received, and the handling of the investigation into his murder....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
  • Minister of Health must account for aged care workers’ pay
    The New Zealand Federation of Business and Professional Women (BPW NZ) congratulates rest-home worker Kristine Bartlett on her landmark claim for equal pay from her employer and successfully pursuing this to the Court of Appeal....
    Scoop politics | 29-10
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