Written By: notices and features - Date published: 11:58 am, January 28th, 2014 - 55 comments
Categories: global warming -
Was in Melbourne a week ago for two days of 45C (113F). The heat radiated off every surface, unreal! The commentary there was that more of these days can be expected with global warming.
Looking at GW from an Aussie perspective it is fairly scary, more water from cyclones in the north, and extreme dries with bush fires everywhere else. A couple of degrees and the place becomes pretty untenable for inland agriculture, and coastal cities will have water supply problems.
Meanwhile Melbourne sprawls and everybody needs a car (you could not live without one and expect to get to work etc, its all predicated on automobiles, just like Auckland). The traffic is horrendous and the CO2 generated is huge. It is all a death spiral, they cant leave their cars even if they want to.
Melbourne also has giant mothballed desalination plants, built when “the science” predicted to rivers to run dry and the dams to empty. Never used and no forseeable need to – but almost bankrupted the state…..
I have lived in Melbourne for several years without a car, you sell Melbourne’s world-class (and fairly widely used) public transport system massively short with your post! The difference in public transport between Wellington (where I lived previously) and here is absolutely remarkable.
Visited there a few years back – awesome transport system, although I only stayed in “Zone One”. Traveled by train then tram for more than an hour, no real delays, still only in zone1. On the same ticket.
In Dunedin, one bus takes half an hour to go through three “zones”, and if you have to change buses you need another ticket.
Expatriot and McFlock, the public transport in Melbourne was superb as you both say. The issue I saw was that the sprawling size of the city outside a 10km radius of the centre made things very auto centric. From public transport hubs in the suburbs the transit to homes and facilities etc becomes far less easy. The inner city dwellers don’t have that problem but they pay through the nose for proximity to the city in housing costs.
Here you go, peer reviewed too…..
Not a lot to worry about, just remember, like when it’s cold – when it’s hot it’s not climate, only weather….
Interesting that the morons who wrote that post clearly didn’t understand what it was saying and what the implications were.
What they said was that the effect of climate change on the formation of cloud aerosols was highly uncertain. In other words they had not been able to establish a relationship between cause and effect. Notable skeptics like Singer had been arguing for years that climate change was self-limiting because as warming proceeded there would be more cloud cover from more aerosols.
To date this has been the only theory they have produced that has *any* scientific validity. This paper just killed that hope.
Perhaps you and the other “skeptic” morons should stop being so damn lazy and learn enough science to not waste everyones time correctly your sagging logic. You can’t even recognize it when a pet theory by the lunatic fringe of science goes *pfffttt*
….and again (peer reviewed). Seems a lot of the hot air going out of Climate Science…..
Seems a lot of the hot air going out of Climate Science…..
Both you and Watts are idiots who can’t read. Actually in Watts case I suspect that he has no interest of getting off the gravy train. He is just venial rather than being willfully ignorant in the way that you are.
Explanation: Extreme weather happens when the climate is changing. That is because the heat balances change and the weather winds up with higher heat differentials to balance. Consequently the weather is more violent until a new heat equilibria is reached. It happens when climates are cooling. It happens when climates are warming. The key feature is that it happens when climates are changing. In fact extreme weather is the visible defining characteristic of changes in climate heat storage.
Changes in climatic heat equilibria take centuries to reach. The reason for that is obvious – most of the heat (probably >90%) is moved using water currents in the oceans. That literally takes centuries for the deep cold currents formed at the poles.
The majority of the current climate change input has happened in the last 50 years. Most of that has happened since the mid-1970s, which is why it was hard to measure. So comparing a record with hundreds of years with a recent but extreme shift is dumb and would only be done by a fool. I don’t have access to the paper myself because of a paywall. But I really don’t need to because I know that they are looking over centuries long records and I’m aware of climatic change timescales. It is called understanding the science – something that you are clearly too lazy to do.
Based on past experience with you, I’m expecting that this comment will go from your eyes and out of your ears without meeting any grey matter.
The weather related changes in north america were a phase inversion of the arctic oscillation.(from positive to negative) due to increases in stratospheric T.
Yep. I’d expect these to keep shifting for quite some time.
There is still a lot of discussion about exactly how fast the gulfstream pushes heat northward (and cold southward). It is a fast current with a seasonally max rate of 2.5 metres/sec at the surface and less further down the water columns out of the prevailing winds. It moves most of the the heat from the Caribbean to near the pole in about 40 years (from memory).
I think what we are seeing now expressed in the Arctic sea ice and jetstream is probably heat transported from the Caribbean prior to the 80s. The rate of change in the Arctic should start increasing over the coming decades.
Jets act as transport barriers as well.an enhanced polar vortex would limit poleward transport of energy. when they are migrating north we can see the effects as the jets act as transport blocks here decreasing flows from australia,and allowing advection (southerly flows) onto nz.
Definitely still the case around Antarctica that blocking effects are still functioning. That won’t change much until some real heat starts penetrating into the inland ice sheets. A lot harder to do that in the Antarctica continent than it is in the Arctic ocean with a whacking great warm current pushing heat into it..
There has been some pretty obvious leakage at the edges of the WAIS with the increasing speed of the breakups of the sea ice. And the EAIS has seen previously unseen measurable influxes of water vapour which has to be transporting heat inland.
But fortunately unlike the Arctic the big heat transport south of the ocean currents gets caught in the barrier of the circum Antarctic currents. So it is getting the much smaller heat transports from the atmosphere.
For the moment this seems to be keeping the fridge cold. Damn good thing. It’d make Invercargill a really cold place if it kept getting Auckland Island weather.
Climate change – just have a look in our own back yard. The glaciers have retreated big time, and the snow caps are decreasing on the Southern Alps. Of course while Captain Happy is steering the ship, no one will pay any attention to the hazards approaching from all quarters. The thing is, he has his own “get out of jail card” – money, to last a life time, has everyone else? Probably not. That’s why he doesn’t care.
Grumpy you hungry again at this moment south and south eastern ates of Australia SouthAustralia and Victoria have had record high tempetatures
This could very quickly turn into drought.
This desalination plant is a very good piece of longterm planning that has been used as a political football by the right wing in A melbourne.
What’s up grumpy is a Koch bro Exxon mobile funded bogus propaganda site.
Climate and weather are not the same.
Grumpy, do you believe that humans since industrialisation and higher birth rates have impacted negatively on earths ecosystem?
Probably. Have they changed the climate – possibly.
Did Gore get it wrong – terribly. Has the AGW cause any credibility – no.
I was going to respond to you but then I realised that there was no point. No matter what the facts are and how often that they’re presented to you you’ll keep on in your delusional little world.
…..and in good company too……
Hockeyshit more exxon mobile propaganda.
While publicly agreeing that global warming is a direct result of burning fossil fuels and also saying they are funding research to do everything they can to mitigate global warming the big oil companies are also funding the climate denial bogus science websites and dark money propaganda but with the intetnet they cannot hide their dirty secrets .
Hockeyschtick is the laughing stock of news reporting and you are the biggest bigotted mug around.
Fox News has been credited with the surge in support of the left wing.
You doing a great job of motivating the left gumpy keep it up.
Exxon mobile? Is that Exxon on the move, or an oil theme display dangling over a child’s cot?
Looks like every child currently in either primary school or high school will get to inherit an irretrievably fucked world and have to deal with the worst effects of global warming with next to no resources, all within their lifetime, largely thanks to the power elite born pre 1970.
Of course, now that Labour’s going to subsidise the birth of every child, there’ll be more kids around to suck up resources, pollute and, ultimately starve. Right?
Every prediction of the end of humanity has been wrong. Every generation feels the need to pinpoint themselves as the critical moment, ignoring the human capacity for innovation and getting shit sorted. Things are getting better Viper. Sorry if that bums you out, but your generation, and mine, are just another in a long line of, well generations. There’s nothing special about us. No one will really remember the peeps of 2014. They’ll just go on living, enjoying better, more productive, mor enjoyable, longer and healthier lives.
Cheer up. You make the Left seem so utterly miserable.
And here folks we have a shiny new example from the ‘inverted reality’ range of products currently being shipped to your screens, and speakers, care of the National party and friends…
We don’t have to deal with inequality because there is no inequality
We don’t have to deal with climate change because there is no climate change
Freedom is slavery
Ignorance is strength
Given your answers how can you object to steps by humans to reduce their negative impact.
First, prove there is a negative impact. Then, prove that any proposed action will mitigate it. Because, the majority have the distinct impression that it is just an excuse for Soviet style wealth redistribution on a vast scale.
The fact that it is a core tenet of the more extreme left and that reality has not reflected the scare tactics of the lunatic fringe like Gore, mean that even in the unlikely event that AGW is real, very few believe you.
lol two demands for proof followed by an insane assertion in your first paragraph. The majority of people seriously think “Soviet style wealth redistribution on a vast scale”? Take a breath and wipe the flecks of spittle from your gob, then take your foot out of it.
You really don’t like Al do you Grumpy…
why is that? – Because he tells an inconvenient truth?
No, because he has bullshitted his way to become a billionaire. I could be convinced by rational argument. Despite how it may appear, I do take lprent’s attempts to “educate” me seriously.
Bogeyman “Soviet style wealth distribution”, but surely there must be an alternative, “conservative” response.
What is it?
Redistribution by voluntary consent via mutual trade, and ending taxes on the poor to help make them financially independent of slimy politicians such as Cunliffe, Key, Peters and Dunne. Socialist guns aren’t needed.
Pure, dumb, ideology that has, as a matter of fact, shown itself not to work.
Because the poor can’t be trusted with their own money? You’re as godawful as Paula Bennett.
And you like Key because he’s only bullshitted his way to being a millionaire, Grumpy? Why do you worship mediocrity so much?
Don’t worry about the next generation Grumpy, just enjoy your investable wealth right now.
It’s either/or in your view then?
Here I am sitting inside on a scorching hot 35+C degrees Perth mid day with not a cloud in the sky. It’s insane to go out in this weather..
WA has a climate that has changed considerably over the past few decades.. and yes continual drought is very real here. I travelled on the bus the other day and the first topic of conversation with the passenger is “when is there going to be rain?” Why – because this is now a hugely dry country. The dams that were built several decades ago to provide water for the projected expanding population are dry – you drive past “lakes” upon which they now hold blowkart races. These were large expansive fresh water sites not so long ago.
And you say there is no negative effect from global warming – its about time you looked beyond your own back yard Grumpy!
Hey Macro – we had 5mm out at Julimar the beginning of November – how much more do you want?
I’ll ignore the fact that the average for this January is .4C up on last Jan, which was .5C up on the Jan before, which was .2C up on the Jan before that……This Jan our observed average is 35.7….the long term ave is 34.2C – it is just weather, of course, but the long term trends here are worrying…dryer, hotter, fire seasons lengthening from 5 mths to near 6.5 mths now……..but what do we know……!
grumpy and co know better, don’t they…
It’s OK, there are people actually living in Victoria who can set you straight…..
You’ve just made a total idiot of yourself again grumpy.
Right now I am in Ballarat – 150 km north of Melbourne and at an altitude of 450m above sea level and because of this it’s usually 4-5 degC cooler than Melbourne.
It’s 6:29 pm – the temperature on the shady side of the house is 39 degC.
People I am working here with who have been here all their lives cannot remember a month with two of these heatwaves in a row. The last one 10-15 days ago killed about 179 people.
Australia always has had hot weather – but the evidence from simple, reliable weather station data is that these heatwaves, while they don’t necessarily break peak temperature records, but they are happening more often and lasting longer.
So when you try and tell me it’s all bullshit – try asking someone who is living there right now.
Meanwhile, it’s record cold in Europe and North America………weather v climate eh? Who knows…….
“ it’s record cold in Europe “
Record warm in Central Europe – practically no snow up until last Sunday and 6 degrees above the usual temps in Vienna during the last month.
Summer produced record highs as well.
I’m living in Melbourne now. Generally I find people have very short memories when it comes to weather. We moan about wet summers but forget the stunner we had the year before. It’s why we all think there were golden days of summer in our childhoods. Actually I think that’s been documented by researchers.
So if you’re going to criticise Grumpy for flimsy evidence, step back and take a look at your own paper thin “proof”.
Hi Jon Yep I know that 5mm went a hell of a long way too! But there is a chance of a storm on thursday / friday! Unfortunately Grumpy fails to realise that it’s just not increased temp that does the damage – nor just the increased periods of no rain. The higher temps mean the air can hold greater quantities of water vapour, and sucks even more moisture from the already parched ground, so any rain that does fall is very quickly absorbed. Grumpy might like to look at the rainfall histogram over the past few decades, for WA as well. There are step wise falls almost decade by decade. If he needed any evidence that Climate Change was upon us he only need to look at that.
Increasing night time temps are of course the real kicker… and we have that in NZ as everywhere. And guess what Grumpy – that is the real evidence that it’s increasing CO2. Now go and do some real research on Global warming Grumpy and NOT at watts up who is nothing but a failed meteorologist
“Anthony Watts studied Electrical Engineering and Meteorology at Purdue University, but has been unwilling to state whether he graduated
, and is nothing but a useful idiot for Koch Bros et al.
Now go and do some real research on Global warming Grumpy
He won’t do that. All he’ll do is look up the websites that conform to the beliefs he had right from the start.
These Australian heatwaves in the 40 degC plus range used to be a once in a generation thing. One of the worst was in 1908 that lasted over five days – but then the next bad one was in the 1950’s.
Right now SA and VIC are having their second one this month.
Right now Adelaide is over 45 degC and likely to hit 46-47 degC tomorrow.
And it will get worse by the weekend.
The definition of heatwave is three consecutive days above 35. Melbourne had two days just now, frankly not uncommon for this time of year. So, no, not a heatwave in Melbourne. As usual, a cool change has come through and temps will gradually rise again. Pretty standard, actually, if you actually lived here.
Regardless, you’re falling into the weather-not-climate observational bias.
You are correct, that loss of life was terrible
Ok, I’ve had a quick look at the evidence and it does appear that Australia is experiencing very high temperatures that may indicate a climate shift.
Next, is this evidence of A change in climate?
Is this change caused by man’s impact on earth or by other factors!
Can any such trend be reversed by human action and is it economic to do so.
Grumpy my daughter lives in france record high winter temps my German friends say its been the warmest wettest winter ever .another friend has just come back from Cambodia and has said its the coldest anyone can remember.
Heraldsun largest shareholder Gina Reinhart lange hancocks daughter.
Mining magnate .
Anti left Global warming Denier!
Gumpy full of shit snicker snicker!
Alaska just isn’t what it used to be.
The weather pattern favoring relentless cold in the Eastern states and prolonged warmth in the West will continue through the end of January.
On multiple dates this month, temperatures have been warmer in Alaska than they have been in Texas, Louisiana and much of the Atlantic coast, including Florida.
Nome, Alaska, which lies at 64.5 degrees north latitude has experienced at least seven days so far this month where temperatures have climbed above freezing. The normal high for Nome is 13 F.
Sybok I have lived in Melbourne and have visited Melbourne regularly over the years read the
The weather in Melbourne is changing Record unseasonal highs are becoming more common Bush fires more common .
Re bush fires , Bush fire fighting technology has improved hugely if this had not happened Victoria would be charcoal Now.
Just a sidebar here but USA today reported this week that 70% of alzheimers sufferers have large amounts of residual DDT in their systems.
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