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1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments
Categories: act, greens, labour, national, nz first, political parties, Politics, polls - Tags: , , ,

Labour and the Greens could govern alone, according to the results of the April 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll.

The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll.

The party vote numbers have Labour back to the honeymoon period polling in February 2018, with National slumping to its lowest support since September 2017.

Labour Party:     48%   (Up 3)
National Party:  40%   (Down 2)
Greens:                  6%    (No change)
NZ First:                4%    (Up 1)
Act:                         1%    (No chance)

 

The poll result would give Labour 60 MPs and the Greens 8 in a 120-seat Parliament:

  • Labour Party       60 
  • National Party    51 
  • Green Party           8 
  • Act Party                 1 
  • TOTAL                  120
 

The PM says in response to the poll that “I just focus on getting on with the job, as do the rest of the team. The focus for us is doing our job, making sure we represent those who voted for us the best we can.”

National leader Simon Bridges remains optimistic, saying “I’m incredibly proud of the National team. I think we pulled together when the country needed unity in our grief.  I think the reality is the Prime Minister has fronted and has done a good job. Over time, we’ll see difficult issues for the Government come to the floor again. We expect to see those numbers change again.”

On NZ First’s result, the Prime Minister said that general elections have a “particular pattern with support partners that tends to be followed, outside election years you do see that fluctuation.

“Overall, those numbers for support partners is still really strong. I’d like to see that as a vote of confidence for the Government as a whole.”

The Preferred PM poll is even grimmer for National:

Jacinda Ardern    51%  (Up 7%)
Simon Bridges       5%  (Down 1%)
Judith Collins         5%  (Down 1%)
Winston Peters      3%  (No change)

The good news for National is that their supporters aren’t phased:

 

The small print:

Between April 6 and 10, 1009 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

50 comments on “1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019 ”

  1. Sacha 1

    I look forward to seeing Matthew Whitehead’s multi-run results on this poll – imagine the probability of Labour governing alone will have risen (not that I think it’s a good idea or that voters would allow it come election time).

    • Enough is Enough 1.1

      Probability – 99.9% now isn’t it.

      Unfortunately I see it as a two horse race next year. I am hoping the Greens can survive but with the momentum and popularity of Jacinda, I am not sure that will happen. I see young people (who were traditionally the Green base) inspired by the leadership of Jacinda and see that as being a very difficult thing for the Green leadership to overcome. Marama v Jacinda is no contest.

      As for NZ First, I enjoy every poll that puts them well below the threshold. Winston core beliefs are the polar opposite of everything that the country has stood up against over the past month and as for Shane Jones, the less said the better.

      It will be an old fashioned Labour V National campaign where there can only be one winner.

      • Sacha 1.1.1

        It was close to zero in his previous simulation runs, whereas Lab+Grn was close to 100%. That will not have reversed.

        And I doubt Green voters decide based on figureheads.

        • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.1

          How else do you explain the Greens drop in the polls then?

          They are not doing anything bad (as opposed to NZ First). I just think they are now competing for support against a once a generation inspirational leader, and that is a very difficult thing to overcome in modern politics

  2. Puckish Rogue 2

    St Jude up to 5%, shes the Queen of the North

    • Sacha 2.1

      Northern shore of the eastern bays, mayhaps. St Heliers for life!

    • Andre 2.2

      Just outta curiosity, what is St Jude the patron saint of? Swamp kauri and pipeline digger-drivers?

      • patricia bremner 2.2.1

        Andre, just out of curiosity, non catholic… I looked up St Jude.

        I guffawed!! Patron Saint of “Lost causes and hopeless cases”

        but, you already knew that? lol lol

        • Andre 2.2.1.1

          😆 No I didn’t know that. Funny how the best smartarsery is usually accidental.

  3. DS 3

    A pretty OK result for NZ First, all things considered.

  4. As we all know, Labour are Blairite apologists for neo-liberalism, so the logical outcome of this poll is a 61 seat ACT/Labour coalition government. All hail Prime Minister Seymour!

    • Anne 4.1

      I think you mean ‘hale’ don’t you trp or am I missing something. 😉

      Mind you the vision of Seymour being pelted by dense hail does have a poignant satisfaction to it.

      • Hmmm, really not sure, but Chuck Berry spells it that way, (as does the wonderful Garland Jeffreys in his similarly named song):

      • Grant 4.1.2

        Hale and Hail are both from the Old Norse Heill, a salutation meaning good health. Over time English developed the two different forms with slightly divergent meanings. Hale for health as in hale and hearty and Hail for a somewhat triumphal salutation. Our German cousins use (d) the same term in a similar variant as in Sieg Heil which is difficult to translate adequately into English but very roughly means ‘salute victory’. I’m sure various scholars of comparative linguistics will be along soon to tell me I’ve got it all wrong, but such is my understanding.
        PS. Ave in Latin is similar, as in Ave Maria = Hail Mary.

        • WeTheBleeple 4.1.2.1

          If the literary police do arrive, just tell them:

          There their they’re
          Its ok

          • Grant 4.1.2.1.1

            There’s a strain of Aspie in my family and I think I took a glancing blow myself. Turned me into a semi-nerd pedant. Have to restrain myself from doing this stuff, but couldn’t resist this time.

            • tc 4.1.2.1.1.1

              Top work grant !

              Imagine what comes next (as we’re slowly but surely cooking ourselves currently) discovering that then looking at words like awesomesauce and macgyver.

              The conclusions would be along the lines of see there’s that decline in language that matches society, culture etc no wonder they broiled themselves to extinction.

        • Anne 4.1.2.2

          Not a lot of help but reckon trp got it right. 😳

          https://www.vocabulary.com/articles/chooseyourwords/hale-hail/

  5. Kat 5

    Over at the fish wrap that lovely old Nat poodle Audrey Young thinks Simon will be “relieved” at tonight’s poll….but only slightly. Poor Audrey, still sucking on the last drops in the Key Kool Aid bottle. Get your final hit Audrey and don your life vest, National are in for a very heavy thump when the rotten old ship hits the bottom.

    • Graeme 5.1

      simon most likely will be “relieved” fairly shortly, by one of the vultures standing behind him in his pressers.

      Lovely phrasing there Audrey

      • ScottGN 5.1.1

        Nah none of them will move before the next election now. The longer Bridges stays leader of National the more certain it is that they have conceded the next election. Audrey just can’t bring herself to say it.

        • Graeme 5.1.1.1

          Jeez, it’ll be messy if it’s got to stew away until then. Just can’t see it lasting that long.

          • You_Fool 5.1.1.1.1

            No serious contender will stick the knife in until they are sure that the worm has turned on Jacinda…

  6. Rumour on the twitter that Simon Bridges’ 5% came from Labour voters keen to see him stay on 😉

  7. Paul Campbell 7

    Just for the record Michael Fowlie @mfow020 doesn’t actually live in NZ, he’s a kiwi who lives in the US and was gleefully proud to have passed around the Christchurch Terrorist’s snuff film

    • lprent 7.1

      I guess he isn’t that interested in coming home eh?

      • Paul Campbell 7.1.1

        I’ve been mulling over outing him to his employer over his actions, he truly is a despicable person, the downside of that is that he’d lose his H1B visa and would likely return home

        The good news is that now he’s been out of the country too long to legally vote (claiming NZ residency to vote would be a tax nightmare for him … which could be fun) so his opinion on who should run our country is largely irrelevant

        • lprent 7.1.1.1

          You know corporates. It’d work if he’d pissed enough people off for some other reason. Otherwise they’d probably find some rationale to ignore it. And as you say, we might get the dimwit earlier than we’d have to otherwise.

          If anyone received the video or link from him here (ie in NZ jurisdiction), then just laying a complaint to the police would probably be sufficient to get him on immigrations watch list. Not only for the offense itself, but also for being a person of interest if the arsehole returns.

          A nice return present…

          • Paul Campbell 7.1.1.1.1

            I know a SVP where he works, I think I could probably get past the first level of corporate “don’t want to know”ism, I think I’m just going to keep a quiet eye on him and pull that trigger if he does anything more egregious – one thing we’ve learned in the past month or so is that evil in the world does need consequences

        • alwyn 7.1.1.2

          I think you should reread the laws on voting and tax residency.
          They are completely different and it is very easy to retain the right to vote without being a tax resident.
          I’m not saying he is but he easily could be and idea that he would have “tax nightmares” is a myth.

  8. peterlepaysan 8

    I am a poll sceptic. I have more faith in weather forecasts.

    The “preferred prime minister” question has to be the stupidest question ever asked.

    This is not a presidential democracy. There is no election looming.

    Yeah. OK. the media need a headline, so they can sell advertising.
    If we had a national centred govt and bridges was pm he would be the preferred pm.

    Who needs pollsters to tell us that?

    It is media chatter. (I am being polite, I could use other words).

    OBTW loved the Chuck Berry bit.

    • Cinny 8.1

      Well, that made me burst out laughing.

      Considering nat’s are the largest party in parliament and simon is on 5%, I don’t think that them being in government would suddenly sky rocket simons popularity.

      But hey, keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel any better.

      • AB 8.1.1

        I suspect Peterlepaysan is spot on.
        If the Nats were in government and Bridges was leader he would be ahead in the totally idiotic “preferred PM” question. Audrey would then be saying that his “down home style” was “striking a chord with kiwis”, or some such cliche-riddled shite. There is no overstating what dull thinkers and terrible writers our supposed journalists mostly are.
        Ever since (Saint) John Key got over 50% in the “preferred PM” question I have been convinced that the question is worthless and mostly reflects the quantity of media exposure of someone actually being prime minister.
        Not to say that Jacinda is not great and all that.

  9. James 9

    Simons gotta go – but now is not the time.

  10. swordfish 10

    Comparative Context

    Colmar Bruntons conducted at same point into First Terms of last 3 New Govts … (Closest poll to 17 Months & 3 Weeks from Change of Admin)

    Preferred PM

    Post-99
    May 2001 CB

    Clark …… 37%
    Shipley … 17%
    English ….. 6%

    .
    Post-08
    April 2010 CB

    Key ……. 48%
    Goff ……. 8%
    Clark …… 3%

    .
    Post-17
    April 2019 CB

    Ardern …. 51%
    Bridges …. 5%
    Collins …… 5%

  11. swordfish 11

    Comparative Context

    Colmar Bruntons conducted at same point into First Terms of last 3 New Govts … (Closest poll to 17 Months & 3 Weeks from Change of Admin)

    Govt vs Oppo

    Post-99
    May 2001 CB

    Govt …… 46%
    Oppo ….. 46%

    .
    Post-08
    April 2010 CB

    Govt ……. 58%
    Oppo …… 39%

    .
    Post-17
    April 2019 CB

    Govt ……. 58%
    Oppo …… 41%

  12. swordfish 12

    I’d expect both the Greens and NZF to be returned to Parliament in 2020 based on this Poll.

    Both in the 5.5 – 7.0% range on Election Night, I’d say.
    (taking their polling history over the last 2 decades into account)

    And I’d expect Ardern to choose continuity, maintaining NZF in a Second Term Govt … even if Labour & the Greens juuuusst manage to scrape a bare majority of seats between them.

    • Dennis Frank 12.1

      I’m inclined to agree with your last point. Pragmatism: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Leftists would howl in frustration at the persistence of centrism.

      Commentary has yet to focus on what is incrementally shifting centrists away from National. Lack of leadership (in an alternative sense) can be discerned in the standard Bridges critique, insofar as such tacit signalling is significant when performed en masse. Stolid, conformist leadership may seem suitable due to recycling traditional National style, but when it lacks imagination and inspiration, and fails to produce a viable alternative to the PM in the current context, it makes centrists see a vacuum where a sense of being on-track ought to be evident.

      So the incremental drift of about 2% of the electorate shifting across the centre line every six months or so has been continuing for a couple of years or more, and has pushed up the apparent support of Labour. Apparent being the key word!

      I agree with those citing the PM’s response to the massacre and aftermath as being exemplary leadership, but that’s not the only factor producing the latest incremental boost for Labour. I reckon the coalition plus Greens is even more responsible for the shift, in getting the prompt ban on semi-automatics. Legislation enacted within a month is incontravertible proof of government consensus working as planned.

      After so long a period of evaporation of faith in sensible governance, seeing their government actually respond to a crisis rapidly and efficiently is affecting kiwis like substantial rain after a drought. So while the charisma factor in leadership prevails in media perception, this underlying reality accounts for the Labour peak polling better. To the centrists who have shifted, it currently does indeed seem like a Labour-led government. So, from having been critical of the lack of substance several months ago, I must now give credit where it’s due. Temporarily, no doubt. Traditional Labour incompetence is sure to resume normal transmission…

  13. Doogs 13

    Hmmm . . . given the margin for error we could be looking at 51 vs 37, and the rest don’t matter at all.

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