web analytics

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments
Categories: act, greens, labour, national, nz first, political parties, Politics, polls - Tags: , , ,

Labour and the Greens could govern alone, according to the results of the April 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll.

The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll.

The party vote numbers have Labour back to the honeymoon period polling in February 2018, with National slumping to its lowest support since September 2017.

Labour Party:     48%   (Up 3)
National Party:  40%   (Down 2)
Greens:                  6%    (No change)
NZ First:                4%    (Up 1)
Act:                         1%    (No chance)

 

The poll result would give Labour 60 MPs and the Greens 8 in a 120-seat Parliament:

  • Labour Party       60 
  • National Party    51 
  • Green Party           8 
  • Act Party                 1 
  • TOTAL                  120
 

The PM says in response to the poll that “I just focus on getting on with the job, as do the rest of the team. The focus for us is doing our job, making sure we represent those who voted for us the best we can.”

National leader Simon Bridges remains optimistic, saying “I’m incredibly proud of the National team. I think we pulled together when the country needed unity in our grief.  I think the reality is the Prime Minister has fronted and has done a good job. Over time, we’ll see difficult issues for the Government come to the floor again. We expect to see those numbers change again.”

On NZ First’s result, the Prime Minister said that general elections have a “particular pattern with support partners that tends to be followed, outside election years you do see that fluctuation.

“Overall, those numbers for support partners is still really strong. I’d like to see that as a vote of confidence for the Government as a whole.”

The Preferred PM poll is even grimmer for National:

Jacinda Ardern    51%  (Up 7%)
Simon Bridges       5%  (Down 1%)
Judith Collins         5%  (Down 1%)
Winston Peters      3%  (No change)

The good news for National is that their supporters aren’t phased:

 

The small print:

Between April 6 and 10, 1009 eligible voters were polled via landline and mobile phone. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

50 comments on “1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019 ”

  1. Sacha 1

    I look forward to seeing Matthew Whitehead’s multi-run results on this poll – imagine the probability of Labour governing alone will have risen (not that I think it’s a good idea or that voters would allow it come election time).

    • Enough is Enough 1.1

      Probability – 99.9% now isn’t it.

      Unfortunately I see it as a two horse race next year. I am hoping the Greens can survive but with the momentum and popularity of Jacinda, I am not sure that will happen. I see young people (who were traditionally the Green base) inspired by the leadership of Jacinda and see that as being a very difficult thing for the Green leadership to overcome. Marama v Jacinda is no contest.

      As for NZ First, I enjoy every poll that puts them well below the threshold. Winston core beliefs are the polar opposite of everything that the country has stood up against over the past month and as for Shane Jones, the less said the better.

      It will be an old fashioned Labour V National campaign where there can only be one winner.

      • Sacha 1.1.1

        It was close to zero in his previous simulation runs, whereas Lab+Grn was close to 100%. That will not have reversed.

        And I doubt Green voters decide based on figureheads.

        • Enough is Enough 1.1.1.1

          How else do you explain the Greens drop in the polls then?

          They are not doing anything bad (as opposed to NZ First). I just think they are now competing for support against a once a generation inspirational leader, and that is a very difficult thing to overcome in modern politics

  2. Puckish Rogue 2

    St Jude up to 5%, shes the Queen of the North

    • Sacha 2.1

      Northern shore of the eastern bays, mayhaps. St Heliers for life!

    • Andre 2.2

      Just outta curiosity, what is St Jude the patron saint of? Swamp kauri and pipeline digger-drivers?

      • patricia bremner 2.2.1

        Andre, just out of curiosity, non catholic… I looked up St Jude.

        I guffawed!! Patron Saint of “Lost causes and hopeless cases”

        but, you already knew that? lol lol

        • Andre 2.2.1.1

          😆 No I didn’t know that. Funny how the best smartarsery is usually accidental.

  3. DS 3

    A pretty OK result for NZ First, all things considered.

  4. As we all know, Labour are Blairite apologists for neo-liberalism, so the logical outcome of this poll is a 61 seat ACT/Labour coalition government. All hail Prime Minister Seymour!

    • Anne 4.1

      I think you mean ‘hale’ don’t you trp or am I missing something. 😉

      Mind you the vision of Seymour being pelted by dense hail does have a poignant satisfaction to it.

      • Hmmm, really not sure, but Chuck Berry spells it that way, (as does the wonderful Garland Jeffreys in his similarly named song):

      • Grant 4.1.2

        Hale and Hail are both from the Old Norse Heill, a salutation meaning good health. Over time English developed the two different forms with slightly divergent meanings. Hale for health as in hale and hearty and Hail for a somewhat triumphal salutation. Our German cousins use (d) the same term in a similar variant as in Sieg Heil which is difficult to translate adequately into English but very roughly means ‘salute victory’. I’m sure various scholars of comparative linguistics will be along soon to tell me I’ve got it all wrong, but such is my understanding.
        PS. Ave in Latin is similar, as in Ave Maria = Hail Mary.

        • WeTheBleeple 4.1.2.1

          If the literary police do arrive, just tell them:

          There their they’re
          Its ok

          • Grant 4.1.2.1.1

            There’s a strain of Aspie in my family and I think I took a glancing blow myself. Turned me into a semi-nerd pedant. Have to restrain myself from doing this stuff, but couldn’t resist this time.

            • tc 4.1.2.1.1.1

              Top work grant !

              Imagine what comes next (as we’re slowly but surely cooking ourselves currently) discovering that then looking at words like awesomesauce and macgyver.

              The conclusions would be along the lines of see there’s that decline in language that matches society, culture etc no wonder they broiled themselves to extinction.

        • Anne 4.1.2.2

          Not a lot of help but reckon trp got it right. 😳

          https://www.vocabulary.com/articles/chooseyourwords/hale-hail/

  5. Kat 5

    Over at the fish wrap that lovely old Nat poodle Audrey Young thinks Simon will be “relieved” at tonight’s poll….but only slightly. Poor Audrey, still sucking on the last drops in the Key Kool Aid bottle. Get your final hit Audrey and don your life vest, National are in for a very heavy thump when the rotten old ship hits the bottom.

    • Graeme 5.1

      simon most likely will be “relieved” fairly shortly, by one of the vultures standing behind him in his pressers.

      Lovely phrasing there Audrey

      • ScottGN 5.1.1

        Nah none of them will move before the next election now. The longer Bridges stays leader of National the more certain it is that they have conceded the next election. Audrey just can’t bring herself to say it.

        • Graeme 5.1.1.1

          Jeez, it’ll be messy if it’s got to stew away until then. Just can’t see it lasting that long.

          • You_Fool 5.1.1.1.1

            No serious contender will stick the knife in until they are sure that the worm has turned on Jacinda…

  6. Rumour on the twitter that Simon Bridges’ 5% came from Labour voters keen to see him stay on 😉

  7. Paul Campbell 7

    Just for the record Michael Fowlie @mfow020 doesn’t actually live in NZ, he’s a kiwi who lives in the US and was gleefully proud to have passed around the Christchurch Terrorist’s snuff film

    • lprent 7.1

      I guess he isn’t that interested in coming home eh?

      • Paul Campbell 7.1.1

        I’ve been mulling over outing him to his employer over his actions, he truly is a despicable person, the downside of that is that he’d lose his H1B visa and would likely return home

        The good news is that now he’s been out of the country too long to legally vote (claiming NZ residency to vote would be a tax nightmare for him … which could be fun) so his opinion on who should run our country is largely irrelevant

        • lprent 7.1.1.1

          You know corporates. It’d work if he’d pissed enough people off for some other reason. Otherwise they’d probably find some rationale to ignore it. And as you say, we might get the dimwit earlier than we’d have to otherwise.

          If anyone received the video or link from him here (ie in NZ jurisdiction), then just laying a complaint to the police would probably be sufficient to get him on immigrations watch list. Not only for the offense itself, but also for being a person of interest if the arsehole returns.

          A nice return present…

          • Paul Campbell 7.1.1.1.1

            I know a SVP where he works, I think I could probably get past the first level of corporate “don’t want to know”ism, I think I’m just going to keep a quiet eye on him and pull that trigger if he does anything more egregious – one thing we’ve learned in the past month or so is that evil in the world does need consequences

        • alwyn 7.1.1.2

          I think you should reread the laws on voting and tax residency.
          They are completely different and it is very easy to retain the right to vote without being a tax resident.
          I’m not saying he is but he easily could be and idea that he would have “tax nightmares” is a myth.

  8. peterlepaysan 8

    I am a poll sceptic. I have more faith in weather forecasts.

    The “preferred prime minister” question has to be the stupidest question ever asked.

    This is not a presidential democracy. There is no election looming.

    Yeah. OK. the media need a headline, so they can sell advertising.
    If we had a national centred govt and bridges was pm he would be the preferred pm.

    Who needs pollsters to tell us that?

    It is media chatter. (I am being polite, I could use other words).

    OBTW loved the Chuck Berry bit.

    • Cinny 8.1

      Well, that made me burst out laughing.

      Considering nat’s are the largest party in parliament and simon is on 5%, I don’t think that them being in government would suddenly sky rocket simons popularity.

      But hey, keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel any better.

      • AB 8.1.1

        I suspect Peterlepaysan is spot on.
        If the Nats were in government and Bridges was leader he would be ahead in the totally idiotic “preferred PM” question. Audrey would then be saying that his “down home style” was “striking a chord with kiwis”, or some such cliche-riddled shite. There is no overstating what dull thinkers and terrible writers our supposed journalists mostly are.
        Ever since (Saint) John Key got over 50% in the “preferred PM” question I have been convinced that the question is worthless and mostly reflects the quantity of media exposure of someone actually being prime minister.
        Not to say that Jacinda is not great and all that.

  9. James 9

    Simons gotta go – but now is not the time.

  10. swordfish 10

    Comparative Context

    Colmar Bruntons conducted at same point into First Terms of last 3 New Govts … (Closest poll to 17 Months & 3 Weeks from Change of Admin)

    Preferred PM

    Post-99
    May 2001 CB

    Clark …… 37%
    Shipley … 17%
    English ….. 6%

    .
    Post-08
    April 2010 CB

    Key ……. 48%
    Goff ……. 8%
    Clark …… 3%

    .
    Post-17
    April 2019 CB

    Ardern …. 51%
    Bridges …. 5%
    Collins …… 5%

  11. swordfish 11

    Comparative Context

    Colmar Bruntons conducted at same point into First Terms of last 3 New Govts … (Closest poll to 17 Months & 3 Weeks from Change of Admin)

    Govt vs Oppo

    Post-99
    May 2001 CB

    Govt …… 46%
    Oppo ….. 46%

    .
    Post-08
    April 2010 CB

    Govt ……. 58%
    Oppo …… 39%

    .
    Post-17
    April 2019 CB

    Govt ……. 58%
    Oppo …… 41%

  12. swordfish 12

    I’d expect both the Greens and NZF to be returned to Parliament in 2020 based on this Poll.

    Both in the 5.5 – 7.0% range on Election Night, I’d say.
    (taking their polling history over the last 2 decades into account)

    And I’d expect Ardern to choose continuity, maintaining NZF in a Second Term Govt … even if Labour & the Greens juuuusst manage to scrape a bare majority of seats between them.

    • Dennis Frank 12.1

      I’m inclined to agree with your last point. Pragmatism: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Leftists would howl in frustration at the persistence of centrism.

      Commentary has yet to focus on what is incrementally shifting centrists away from National. Lack of leadership (in an alternative sense) can be discerned in the standard Bridges critique, insofar as such tacit signalling is significant when performed en masse. Stolid, conformist leadership may seem suitable due to recycling traditional National style, but when it lacks imagination and inspiration, and fails to produce a viable alternative to the PM in the current context, it makes centrists see a vacuum where a sense of being on-track ought to be evident.

      So the incremental drift of about 2% of the electorate shifting across the centre line every six months or so has been continuing for a couple of years or more, and has pushed up the apparent support of Labour. Apparent being the key word!

      I agree with those citing the PM’s response to the massacre and aftermath as being exemplary leadership, but that’s not the only factor producing the latest incremental boost for Labour. I reckon the coalition plus Greens is even more responsible for the shift, in getting the prompt ban on semi-automatics. Legislation enacted within a month is incontravertible proof of government consensus working as planned.

      After so long a period of evaporation of faith in sensible governance, seeing their government actually respond to a crisis rapidly and efficiently is affecting kiwis like substantial rain after a drought. So while the charisma factor in leadership prevails in media perception, this underlying reality accounts for the Labour peak polling better. To the centrists who have shifted, it currently does indeed seem like a Labour-led government. So, from having been critical of the lack of substance several months ago, I must now give credit where it’s due. Temporarily, no doubt. Traditional Labour incompetence is sure to resume normal transmission…

  13. Doogs 13

    Hmmm . . . given the margin for error we could be looking at 51 vs 37, and the rest don’t matter at all.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Tokelau Language Week reminds us to stay united and strong
    Staying strong in the face of challenges and being true to our heritage and languages are key to preserving our cultural identity and wellbeing, is the focus of the 2020 Tokelau Language Week. Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio, says this year’s theme, ‘Apoapo tau foe, i nā tāfea ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • NZ announces a third P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    The Government has deployed a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea, announced Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “New Zealand has long supported ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Pacific trade and development agreement a reality
    Pacific regional trade and development agreement PACER Plus will enter into force in 60 days now that the required eight countries have ratified it. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the announcement that the Cook Islands is the eighth nation to ratify this landmark agreement. “The agreement represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Securing a pipeline of teachers
    The Government is changing its approach to teacher recruitment as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue, by boosting a range of initiatives to get more Kiwis into teaching. “When we came into Government, we were faced with a teacher supply crisis,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “Over the past three years, we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas
    The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions. “The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • First COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreement signed
    The Government has signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, say Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods and Health Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • International statement – End-to-end encryption and public safety
    We, the undersigned, support strong encryption, which plays a crucial role in protecting personal data, privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets and cyber security.  It also serves a vital purpose in repressive states to protect journalists, human rights defenders and other vulnerable people, as stated in the 2017 resolution of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministry of Defence Biodefence Assessment released
    The Ministry of Defence has today released a Defence Assessment examining Defence’s role across the spectrum of biological hazards and threats facing New Zealand. Biodefence: Preparing for a New Era of Biological Hazards and Threats looks at how the NZDF supports other agencies’ biodefence activities, and considers the context of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020
    New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020 Hon David Parker’s response following Thomas Piketty and Esther Duflo. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever in the world you might be. I first acknowledge the excellent thought provoking speeches of Thomas Piketty and Esther ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Kaipara Moana restoration takes next step
    A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed today at Waihāua Marae between the Crown, local iwi and councils to protect, restore and enhance the mauri of Kaipara Moana in Northland. Environment Minister David Parker signed the document on behalf of the Crown along with representatives from Ngā Maunga Whakahī, Ngāti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Uruguay unite on reducing livestock production emissions
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries Carlos María Uriarte have welcomed the launch of a three-year project that will underpin sustainable livestock production in Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.  The project called ‘Innovation for pasture management’ is led by Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 3100 jobs created through marae upgrades
    Hundreds of marae throughout the country will be upgraded through investments from the Provincial Growth Fund’s refocused post COVID-19 funding to create jobs and put money into the pockets of local tradespeople and businesses, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced. “A total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Health volunteers recognised in annual awards
    Health Minister Chris Hipkins has announced 9 teams and 14 individuals are the recipients of this year’s Minister of Health Volunteer Awards.  “The health volunteer awards celebrate and recognise the thousands of dedicated health sector volunteers who give many hours of their time to help other New Zealanders,” Mr Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community COVID-19 Fund supports Pacific recovery
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. “I am keen to see this Fund support Pacific ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community benefits from Māori apprenticeships
    Up to 50 Māori apprentices in Wellington will receive paid training to build houses for their local communities, thanks to a $2.75 million investment from the Māori Trades and Training Fund, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Ngāti Toa Rangatira Incorporated to provide its Ngā Kaimahi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Training fund supports Māori jobseekers
    Rapidly growing sectors will benefit from a $990,000 Māori Trades and Training Fund investment which will see Wellington jobseekers supported into work, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Sapphire Consultants Ltd. to help up to 45 Māori jobseekers into paid training initiatives over two years through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruakura Inland Port development vital infrastructure for Waikato
    The Government is investing $40 million to develop an inland port at Ruakura which will become a freight super-hub and a future business, research and residential development for the Waikato, Urban Development and Transport Minister Phil Twyford, and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The funding has been has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Appointments made to Defence Expert Review Group
    Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today the establishment of an Expert Review Group to review a number of aspects of the New Zealand Defence Force’s (NZDF) structure, information management and record-keeping processes.  The Expert Review Group’s work arises out of the first recommendation from the Report of the Government’s Inquiry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • No active community cases of COVID-19
    There are no active community cases of COVID-19 remaining in the country after the last people from the recent outbreak have recovered from the virus, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “This is a big milestone. New Zealanders have once again through their collective actions squashed the virus. The systems ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Clean energy upgrade for more public buildings
    More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. Minister Shaw announced that Lincoln and Auckland universities will receive support through the Clean-Powered Public Service Fund to replace fossil fuel boilers. Southern, Taranaki, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Schools back donations scheme for the second year
    More schools have opted in to the donations scheme for 2021, compared to 2020 when the scheme was introduced. “The families of more than 447,000 students will be better off next year, with 94% of eligible schools and kura opting into the scheme,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Ruapehu cycle trails gets PGF boost
    The spectacular Mountains to Sea cycle trail in Ruapehu District will receive $4.6 million in funding from the Provincial Growth Fund for two additional trails, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This is an exciting development for the local community, and one that will provide significant economic opportunities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago