2040? The robots will have taken over

Written By: - Date published: 8:59 am, March 8th, 2017 - 53 comments
Categories: superannuation, unemployment - Tags:

Bill English’s new super plan falls between 2 stools.  The super cost crisis that he’s trying to summon up, is before 2040 if it exists.

The solution was most probably continuing to pay into the Cullen Fund, which English suspended paying into in 2009 to pay for top-rate tax cuts.  That extra cash invested would have got us over the baby-boomer hump until 2040.  But instead, we’re billions out of pocket from some very nice returns that the NZ Super Fund could have received over that time.

By 2040, the large demographic lump that is the baby-boomers are dying off.  It’s GenX & the millenials who pay for it, as they paid for tertiary education, unaffordable housing, lower benefits when between jobs, climate change etc.  It’s intergenerational war.

Also by 2040 – a lot of jobs are disappearing to robots.

Secretaries are already gone, retail jobs are being lost to internet shopping, US manufacturing has lost 5 million jobs since 2000 of which 88% is to robots – this will continue, as IBM’s Watson is better than your GP, Xero is better than your accountant and most law tasks are automatable.  The largest sector of employment, in the US at least, is transport – and self-driving trucks & trains, buses & taxis are all just around the corner.

So by 2040 we’re not going to need more people aged 65 & 66 to add to our dole queues.  We’re going to need something like a Universal Basic Income – so why would we be reducing the number of people who qualify for the one we already have: NZ Super?

53 comments on “2040? The robots will have taken over ”

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  1. Antoine 1
    8 March 2017 at 9:15 am

    Personally I think we’ll need a lot more people working in 2040 than we have now. What with environmental degradation, resource depletion and climate change, having people sitting around not working will likely be a luxury we cant afford.

    But hey, we could both be wrong. Closer to the time, NZ can adapt as needed. Including introducing a UBI if we find ourselves in a robotic post-scarcity utopia…

    • Draco T Bastard 1.1
      8 March 2017 at 9:28 am

      Closer to the time, NZ can adapt as needed.

      No you fucken moron, we won’t be able to adapt at the time as it requires a massive investment in infrastructure and that investment needs to start now and it needs to be done by the government.

      If we don’t do that investment then we’ll find our productivity doesn’t keep up with what we need, doesn’t keep up with the other countries of the world and we end up becoming a basket-case economy with massive poverty and inequality.

      • RJL 1.1.1
        8 March 2017 at 9:43 am

        @Draco T Bastard: “No you fucken moron, we won’t be able to adapt at the time as it requires a massive investment in infrastructure…”

        Exactly.

      • Antoine 1.1.2
        8 March 2017 at 10:24 am

        > we won’t be able to adapt at the time as it requires a massive investment in infrastructure and that investment needs to start now and it needs to be done by the government.

        For once I totally agree! We are going to need new infrastructure and it should already be happening. (Unfortunately I don’t think we know what infrastructure – I’m sure you’ll disagree with that – and there’s no political will.)

        But the post is about UBI and _that_ should be able to be brought in in a matter of weeks if necessary.

        A.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.1.2.1
          8 March 2017 at 10:43 am

          But the post is about UBI and _that_ should be able to be brought in in a matter of weeks if necessary.

          Arguably, it’s necessary now.

          And it’s always better to do the research and planning for such an implementation and thus getting it right rather than doing a botch up job as an emergency reaction to a bad situation.

          • Antoine 1.1.2.1.1
            8 March 2017 at 11:58 am

            Bit of research would do no harm, but (arguably) there’s no great rush

            A.

            P.S. If and when robots run everything, we can ask _them_ to plan it :p

      • coffeeconnoiseur 1.1.3
        8 March 2017 at 4:19 pm

        What infrastructure investment are you thinking will be needed?
        Arguably we won’t need much so long as we make the necessary changes to the financial systems and Labour systems.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.1.3.1
          8 March 2017 at 6:05 pm

          Also by 2040 – a lot of jobs are disappearing to robots.

          This infrastructure.

          Also by 2040 – a lot of jobs are disappearing to robots.

          NZ is way behind on development and implementation of the factories (yes, that's infrastructure) and supply lines to feed them. We've become reliant upon the idea that we'll just grow more food to export but we're already at the limit there and arguably need to decrease the amount of farming that we do already.

    • Carolyn_nth 1.2
      8 March 2017 at 9:28 am

      Actually, it’s not true that most retirees sit around “not working”. They do lots of unpaid community work. Especially recently retired people in their late 60s, with many skills and a lot to offer the community.

      The neoliberal approach has been to pay fewer and fewer people doing community and home caring work, and to try to rely more on unpaid work by charities and community groups..

      • Antoine 1.2.1
        8 March 2017 at 12:00 pm

        RIght, I appreciate that. But with a UBI (as per the subject of the post), “not working” would be an option for able-bodied people under retirement age.

        (Assuming the UBI was sufficient to live on)

        A.

        • Carolyn_nth 1.2.1.1
          8 March 2017 at 12:07 pm

          Yes. But younger people also could be doing caring and community work. There’s many things robots can’t do – humans respond to caring from other humans. A robot would be no substitute.

          And people not in paid work need to be engaged with their local communities. that takes some organising and participation by people – basically, the state has to enable people to undertake these activities, and they require funding and support.

          • Antoine 1.2.1.1.1
            8 March 2017 at 12:45 pm

            > There’s many things robots can’t do – humans respond to caring from other humans. A robot would be no substitute.

            I agree!

            One of the reasons why I don’t think there’ll ever be mass unemployment. There will always be plenty of ‘service’ (a dry word I know) jobs for humans.

            But hey, I can’t see the future so I could be wrong.

            A.

            • coffeeconnoiseur 1.2.1.1.1.1
              8 March 2017 at 1:53 pm

              I can see the future and service jobs are where much of the automation is going to come in replace people.
              Yes they can’t replace all jobs but they can and will replace far more jobs than we need under the current economic model where you need to work to earn a living.
              If we are stupid enough to stick to the paradigm the current economic model sits in then we will need to make a couple of changes.
              We will need a UBI that will decouple the need to work from wages.
              At the same time we need to give the function of creating money to everyone rather than just the Elites who have it now through banking.
              If we do this we will be ok.

              • Antoine …
                8 March 2017 at 2:54 pm

                > I can see the future

                Really, you can’t.

                A.

                • coffeeconnoiseur …
                  8 March 2017 at 3:52 pm

                  Time isn’t linear
                  and the future, it isn’t that hard to see when you are one of the ones building it.

                • Draco T Bastard …
                  8 March 2017 at 6:14 pm

                  In 1972 a book was published that made no predictions but did foresee what was going to happen now quite accurately.

                  So, yes, it’s possible to see the future. And we do it all the time at a subconscious level. It’s part and parcel of the algorithms that high speed trading machines use to make money without producing any value (Could actually say that they’re destroying value as they’re using resources that produce no social return).

                  So, you’re talking out your arse again to try and support your failed ideology.

    • RJL 1.3
      8 March 2017 at 9:41 am

      @Antoine: “… having people sitting around not working will likely be a luxury we cant afford.”

      You don’t understand the problem. The problem of automation is that there is nothing to do. It’s uneconomic to employ people.

      • Antoine 1.3.1
        8 March 2017 at 10:26 am

        Of course I understand that automation replaces people.

        In my scenario however, the productivity improvement from automation is overshadowed by the productivity loss from environmental damage. Thus, it ends up taking more people to do the same amount of work.

        One way this could happen would be if we weren’t able to make the capital investment in automated technologies. Or if the world economy as a whole had simply gone to crap.

        A.

        • Draco T Bastard 1.3.1.1
          8 March 2017 at 10:41 am

          In my scenario however, the productivity improvement from automation is overshadowed by the productivity loss from environmental damage.

          Which sounds like you’re Making Shit Up to suit your agenda of not doing anything.

          • Antoine 1.3.1.1.1
            8 March 2017 at 11:59 am

            Of course I’m making stuff up! I defy anyone to talk at length about what’s going to happen in 2040 without making stuff up!!!

            A.

            • Draco T Bastard 1.3.1.1.1.1
              8 March 2017 at 6:17 pm

              We can see quite clearly a lot of what’s going to happen as the future is shaped by the past.

        • RJL 1.3.1.2
          8 March 2017 at 12:24 pm

          @Antonine: “Thus, it ends up taking more people to do the same amount of work.”

          I’m not sure that the real world works like that.

          But nonetheless, you seem to mean productivity loss in the real world (i.e. food production) rather than simple productivity changes in the office.

          Sure, if there is a massive contraction of food production, there will be a problem. But the solution won’t be for everyone to work a bit harder. The solution will be a massive contraction of population. See, for example, “The Death of Grass” by John Christopher.

          • Antoine 1.3.1.2.1
            8 March 2017 at 12:44 pm

            As we are talking about a future decades away I can’t be certain you’re wrong, but I would have thought that if we were going through a massive contraction of population, paying a UBI would be the last thing on anyone’s mind.

            A.

      • Phil 1.3.2
        8 March 2017 at 1:08 pm

        You don’t understand the problem. The problem of automation is that there is nothing to do. It’s uneconomic to employ people.

        … and you don’t understand the opportunity!

        Through history people have feared that every step of automation and technology would be the death knell of some part of civilization or culture. The invention of the radio would destroy piano makers. The introduction of cars would render huge swathes of horsemen unemployed and destitute. The internet will force us to close down libraries. People even feared that letting women learn to read and write would lead them to want careers (shock! horror!) and not just blast out more and more babies.

        In every single case, those fears were completely unfounded. New ideas and technology do, absolutely, lead to some pain and disruption in the short term. But they also become the platform for the next thing that occupies the time and energy of humans.

        I, for one, am incredibly excited for our robotic future. Specifically because we’ve got no idea what might come after it.

        • Antoine 1.3.2.1
          8 March 2017 at 1:13 pm

          Well said!

          > Specifically because we’ve got no idea what might come after it.

          Agreed

          But I highly doubt it’s going to involve lots of able young people sitting round with no jobs to do.

          A.

          • SpaceMonkey 1.3.2.1.1
            8 March 2017 at 4:39 pm

            I would change your last statement to say “I highly doubt it’s going to involve lots of able people sitting round with NOTHING to do”.

            All “jobs”, across every aspect of our society, could very well become a thing of the past. It’s what we do with our time and energy after that that matters.

        • coffeeconnoiseur 1.3.2.2
          8 March 2017 at 1:56 pm

          If we are smart what comes next is more freedom than we have ever had for ourselves and for future generations. We will no longer need to work in order to survive but we will need to change the system to enable this.

    • saveNZ 1.4
      8 March 2017 at 10:46 am

      We should also ask ourselves why our government is deliberately sabotaging our future by bring in 100,000’s people per year for low skill jobs that are going to be automated or at minimum wages, such as petrol attendants…

      • coffeeconnoiseur 1.4.1
        8 March 2017 at 2:03 pm

        in an attempt to lower the cost of living through lower prices in much the same way that they have made it illegal to discriminate against the elderly with jobs because the pension is no longer enough to live on.
        Or
        legalized prostitution so that with all of this automation your daughters and wives can still earn a living. (sorry but it is the reality)
        Or
        legalized Freedom Camping to hide the growing homelessness problem.
        Or
        blamed parents for child poverty so they could vote to keep the problem rather than fix it.

        Welcome to what the slow and painful collapse of Capitalism looks like.

  2. mickysavage 2
    8 March 2017 at 9:26 am

    Good post.

    The more I think about it the weirder the announcement is. It is like they were provided with advice that something had to be done but then weakened it and drew it out to the point that its effect is very muted. The baby boom bulge will be well and truly over by then.

    And taxing robots is the thing that our leaders should be grappling with now, not in the medium to long term.

    About the only benefit the Government’s announcement has is they can say they are doing something.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.1
      8 March 2017 at 9:29 am

      Sounds like typical National then – an announcement about doing something that, in reality, achieves nothing but kicking the can down the road and leaving it to someone else to clean up the mess.

    • Carolyn_nth 2.2
      8 March 2017 at 9:30 am

      I have wondered if Bling;s super announcement was just another variety of dead cat.

      Dead before it was thrown into the ring. A do nothing policy, just a lot of smoke and mirrors.

    • Bill 2.3
      8 March 2017 at 10:20 am

      Kind of connected to what you’re saying…

      What if airbnb type apps and ubertype apps were given away for free so there was no ‘owner’ of the app taking a cut and then people got taxed on their income just as happens now? What would the effect of that be?

      I understand that airbrb is the largest hospitality company in the world. And it owns nothing at all bar the proprietorial rights attached to an app. Is uber the largest personal transport network?

      There’s nothing to stop a government department or an individual developing similar apps and just giving them away.

      • AB 2.3.1
        8 March 2017 at 12:53 pm

        Governments should feel obliged, on behalf of their citizens, to destroy or prevent parasitic business models.
        So yes.

      • coffeeconnoiseur 2.3.2
        8 March 2017 at 2:07 pm

        There is nothing to stop this. There is also nothing to stop from automating the services that hang off those apps and delivering those for free also.
        A free on demand system if you will.

        If your worried about overconsumption and the effect on resources from such a move, fine retain a monetary system and give debt creation back to everyone or move to a non debt based monetary system.

    • Siobhan 2.4
      8 March 2017 at 11:32 am

      “And taxing robots is the thing that our leaders should be grappling with now, not in the medium to long term.”..that’s the best thing I’ve heard all year.
      And I’m assuming by that you are including all the companies that just function as the ‘interface’, basically giant robot driven computers hoarding all the wealth..

      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/facebook-airbnb-uber-and-the-unstoppable-rise-of-the-content-non-generators-10227207.html

  3. Bill 3
    8 March 2017 at 10:12 am

    So by 2040 we’re not going to need more people aged 65 & 66 to add to our dole queues. We’re going to need something like a Universal Basic Income – so why would we be reducing the number of people who qualify for the one we already have: NZ Super?

    If a proper UBI is put in place, then bosses, businesses and corporates lose power…and most of everything’s about power – establishing it and maintaining it.

    Better to have a population that’s scared and a precariat that’s worked to death returning lower overall profits from production within an environment of unassailed power than a world that’s pleasant for most.

    Oh. And 2040. CC. Big elephant. Ignore the elephant…Robots and finances.

    • Ben Clark 3.1
      8 March 2017 at 1:02 pm

      Climate change will affect the robots less – they’ll be able to work underwater 😈

      but seriously, more floods / famine / storms / higher seas… I’m not sure it’ll result in more paid employment like Antoine suggests.
      but then more jobs being automated probably doesn’t equate to the post-scarcity utopia that he suggests either.

      But you’re right – if you’re trying to solve 2040 problems, there is a much bigger one to be working on than Super costs. (actually, probably more than 1 ‘n’ all…)

      • Antoine 3.1.1
        8 March 2017 at 1:21 pm

        I’m not sure either, that’s pretty much my point. The future is uncertain. We shouldn’t plan for a single future that we envisage, rather for robustness over a range of futures.

        A.

    • AB 3.2
      8 March 2017 at 1:18 pm

      “most of everything’s about power”
      And there has been a huge persuasive effort to make that insight disappear from our minds

      • SpaceMonkey 3.2.1
        8 March 2017 at 4:45 pm

        To me, in a nutshell, this is the issue – power. Where the technology is being applied is being determined by the people who have it. Are they aware that the technology has the capability to even replace them?

    • coffeeconnoiseur 3.3
      8 March 2017 at 2:10 pm

      Yes they do lose power. It returns to the people where it should be and the push then becomes for greater efficiency, better products and better service.
      leading to better usage of resources.

  4. fisiani 4
    8 March 2017 at 11:47 am

    National assumes that it will be in government in 2037 and beyond. Is that a reasonable and realistic assumption?

    • Poission 4.1
      8 March 2017 at 1:02 pm

      After the target of selling of everything in NZ by the national government in 2037 ,the new owners (Guangdong tractor and real estate company #5) decided they did not require a government in NZ and made them all redundant.

  5. Skeptic 5
    8 March 2017 at 3:54 pm

    Those of you who are old enough will remember a documentary called the Ascent of Man, written & narrated by Jacob Bronowski. In the final episode of the 13 part series, which aired in NZ in 1974, he issued a dire warning predicated on the rise of computers and robotics/androids. The precis of his warning was that eventually AI would displace manual and clerical/managerial work to the extent that all of Western Society will have one of two choices; a) share the work and generated income/wealth equitably through a guaranteed livable income with extra benefits – but not extensively so – for those who contribute more, plus much reduced working hours so the work gets shared evenly, or b) run society at bayonet point!!
    It is well worth revisiting this to see how everyday jobs we take for granted could and probably will within the next two decades, be taken over by remote viewed robotics, nanobots, artificial self-aware decision-making androids. Medical, Police, Fire, Law, Public Infrastructure Maintenance, Cleaning, Building & Construction, Design are all on the list of “replaceable” jobs. What the program was light on, was how humanity was going to occupy itself – if I remember rightly, there was a lot of airy-fairy stuff about arts and inventions.
    The main point being, extending super to 67 – even with a 20 lead-in – is not the answer to future proofing. It’s merely passing the buck onto the next generation to confront the reality of AI impact on Human Society.

    • Craig H 5.1
      8 March 2017 at 6:58 pm

      I watched this doco at some point the past 5-10 years, and it was excellent – I highly recommend it.

  6. SpaceMonkey 6
    8 March 2017 at 4:35 pm

    Great post!

    From my perspective, and in the stuff I do, automation has the potential to replace “judgement” roles (as Mai Chen referred to them on Radio NZ recently) as well.

    Cognitive reasoning technology (such as IBM’s Watson) has the capability to learn, and it is getting more powerful and better. In time, it has the potential to impact on EVERY part of our society. Not even the executive layers of an organisation will be immune to this new paradigm. (Actually… in my experience the machines would probably do a better job in many cases)

    As for banks… they are going to head the same way as the creative industries in time. Cognitive reasoning tech combined with nextgen blockchain, for example, can enable intelligent management of any peer-to-peer transactions, making any intermediary function redundant.

  7. BM 7
    8 March 2017 at 6:09 pm

    For anyone who may be interested

    https://flipboard.com/topic/robots

  8. One Two 8
    8 March 2017 at 11:28 pm

    Who will these robots be working for, is it imagined?

    Currently humans are ‘obliged’ to work to function inside of a paradigm which has been designed and maintained by the ‘very few’…Ergo the human energy resources are expended largely for the benefit of ‘very few’…

    When the human resources are no longer necessary for the ‘very few’ to maintain their position at the top of the triangle, then what?

    Politicians who are ‘selected’ as gatekeepers will not be addressing this or any other serious issue. It’s not the function they are ‘selected’ to perform

    Turn away from politics, and turn towards family, friends and those who are not yet part of your life…

    It’s going to be necessary, if not life saving!

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    Not Labour: If you’re out to punish the government you once loved, then the last thing you need is to be shown evidence that the opposition parties are much, much worse.THE GREATEST VIRTUE of being the Opposition is not being the Government. Only very rarely is an opposition party elected ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #39 2023
    Open access notables "Net zero is only a distraction— we just have to end fossil fuel emissions." The latter is true but the former isn't, or  not in the real world as it's likely to be in the immediate future. And "just" just doesn't enter into it; we don't have ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Chris Trotter: Losing the Left
    IN THE CURRENT MIX of electoral alternatives, there is no longer a credible left-wing party. Not when “a credible left-wing party” is defined as: a class-oriented, mass-based, democratically-structured political organisation; dedicated to promoting ideas sharply critical of laissez-faire capitalism; and committed to advancing democratic, egalitarian and emancipatory ideals across the ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago

  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Hipkins fires up in leaders’ debate, but has the curtain already fallen on the Labour-led coalitio...
    Labour’s  Chris Hipkins came out firing, in the  leaders’ debate  on Newshub’s evening programme, and most of  the pundits  rated  him the winner against National’s  Christopher Luxon. But will this make any difference when New  Zealanders  start casting their ballots? The problem  for  Hipkins is  that  voters are  all too ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago

  • Govt is energising housing projects with solar power – and fuelling the public’s concept of a di...
    Buzz from the Beehive  Not long after Point of Order published data which show the substantial number of New Zealanders (77%) who believe NZ is becoming more divided, government ministers were braying about a programme which distributes some money to “the public” and some to “Maori”. The ministers were dishing ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • MIKE GRIMSHAW: Election 2023 – a totemic & charisma failure?
    The D&W analysis Michael Grimshaw writes –  Given the apathy, disengagement, disillusionment, and all-round ennui of this year’s general election, it was considered time to bring in those noted political operatives and spin doctors D&W, the long-established consultancy firm run by Emile Durkheim and Max Weber. Known for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • FROM BFD: Will Winston be the spectre we think?
    Kissy kissy. Cartoon credit BoomSlang. The BFD. JC writes-  Allow me to preface this contribution with the following statement: If I were asked to express a preference between a National/ACT coalition or a National/ACT/NZF coalition then it would be the former. This week Luxon declared his position, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • California’s climate disclosure bill could have a huge impact across the U.S.
    This re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Andy Furillo was originally published by Capital & Main and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The California Legislature took a step last week that has the potential to accelerate the fight against climate ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Untangling South East Queensland’s Public Transport
    This is a cross post Adventures in Transitland by Darren Davis. I recently visited Brisbane and South East Queensland and came away both impressed while also pondering some key changes to make public transport even better in the region. Here goes with my take on things. A bit of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    4 days ago

  • Try A Little Kindness.
    My daughter arrived home from the supermarket yesterday and she seemed a bit worried about something. It turned out she wanted to know if someone could get her bank number from a receipt.We wound the story back.She was in the store and there was a man there who was distressed, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • What makes NZFirst tick
    New Zealand’s longest-running political roadshow rolled into Opotiki yesterday, with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters knowing another poll last night showed he would make it back to Parliament and National would need him and his party if they wanted to form a government. The Newshub Reid Research poll ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • September AMA
    Hi,As September draws to a close — I feel it’s probably time to do an Ask Me Anything. You know how it goes: If you have any burning questions, fire away in the comments and I will do my best to answer. You might have questions about Webworm, or podcast ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago

  • Bludgers lying in the scratcher making fools of us all
    The mediocrity who stands to be a Prime Minister has a litany.He uses it a bit like a Koru Lounge card. He will brandish it to say: these people are eligible. And more than that, too: These people are deserving. They have earned this policy.They have a right to this policy. What ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • More “partnerships” (by the look of it) and redress of over $30 million in Treaty settlement wit...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point of Order has waited until now – 3.45pm – for today’s officially posted government announcements.  There have been none. The only addition to the news on the Beehive’s website was posted later yesterday, after we had published our September 26 Buzz report. It came from ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • ALEX HOLLAND: Labour’s spending
    Alex Holland writes –  In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, New Zealand’s government debt ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • If not now, then when?
    Labour released its fiscal plan today, promising the same old, same old: "responsibility", balanced books, and of course no new taxes: "Labour will maintain income tax settings to provide consistency and certainty in these volatile times. Now is not the time for additional taxes or to promise billions of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • THE FACTS:  77% of Kiwis believe NZ is becoming more divided
    The Facts has posted –        KEY INSIGHTSOf New Zealander’s polled: Social unity/division 77%believe NZ is becoming more divided (42% ‘much more’ + 35% ‘a little more’) 3%believe NZ is becoming less divided (1% ‘much less’ + 2% ‘a little less’) ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the cynical brutality of the centre-right’s welfare policies
    The centre-right’s enthusiasm for forcing people off the benefit and into paid work is matched only by the enthusiasm (shared by Treasury and the Reserve Bank) for throwing people out of paid work to curb inflation, and achieve the optimal balance of workers to job seekers deemed to be desirable ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    5 days ago

  • Wednesday’s Chorus: Arthur Grimes on why building many, many more social houses is so critical
    New research shows that tenants in social housing - such as these Wellington apartments - are just as happy as home owners and much happier than private tenants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The election campaign took an ugly turn yesterday, and in completely the wrong direction. All three ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Old habits
    Media awareness about global warming and climate change has grown fairly steadily since 2004. My impression is that journalists today tend to possess a higher climate literacy than before. This increasing awareness and improved knowledge is encouraging, but there are also some common interpretations which could be more nuanced. ...
    Real ClimateBy rasmus
    5 days ago

  • Bennie Bashing.
    If there’s one thing the mob loves more than keeping Māori in their place, more than getting tough on the gangs, maybe even more than tax cuts. It’s a good old round of beneficiary bashing.Are those meanies in the ACT party stealing your votes because they think David Seymour is ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • The kindest cuts
    Labour kicks off the fiscal credibility battle today with the release of its fiscal plan. National is expected to follow, possibly as soon as Thursday, with its own plan, which may (or may not) address the large hole that the problems with its foreign buyers’ ban might open up. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • Green right turn in Britain? Well, a start
    While it may be unlikely to register in New Zealand’s general election, Britain’s PM Rishi Sunak has done something which might just be important in the long run. He’s announced a far-reaching change in his Conservative government’s approach to environmental, and particularly net zero, policy. The starting point – ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    5 days ago

  • At a glance – How do human CO2 emissions compare to natural CO2 emissions?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • How could this happen?
    Canada is in uproar after the exposure that its parliament on September 22 provided a standing ovation to a Nazi veteran who had been invited into the chamber to participate in the parliamentary welcome to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, a Ukrainian man who volunteered for service in ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    6 days ago

  • Always Be Campaigning
    The big screen is a great place to lay out the ways of the salesman. He comes ready-made for Panto, ripe for lampooning.This is not to disparage that life. I have known many good people of that kind. But there is a type, brazen as all get out. The camera ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • STEPHEN FRANKS: Press seek to publicly shame doctor – we must push back
    The following is a message sent yesterday from lawyer Stephen Franks on behalf of the Free Speech Union. I don’t like to interrupt first thing Monday morning, but we’ve just become aware of a case where we think immediate and overwhelming attention could help turn the tide. It involves someone ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Competing on cruelty
    The right-wing message calendar is clearly reading "cruelty" today, because both National and NZ First have released beneficiary-bashing policies. National is promising a "traffic light" system to police and kick beneficiaries, which will no doubt be accompanied by arbitrary internal targets to classify people as "orange" or "red" to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Further funding for Pharmac (forgotten in the Budget?) looks like a $1bn appeal from a PM in need of...
    Buzz from the Beehive One Labour plan  – for 3000 more public homes by 2025 – is the most recent to be posted on the government’s official website. Another – a prime ministerial promise of more funding for Pharmac – has been released as a Labour Party press statement. Who ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: The Vested interests shaping National Party policies
    As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that might arise. One of the key individuals of ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago

  • Labour may be on way out of power and NZ First back in – but will Peters go into coalition with Na...
    Voters  are deserting Labour in droves, despite Chris  Hipkins’  valiant  rearguard  action.  So  where  are they  heading?  Clearly  not all of them are going to vote National, which concedes that  the  outcome  will be “close”. To the Right of National, the ACT party just a  few weeks  ago  was ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    6 days ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS: Will the racists please stand up?
    Accusations of racism by journalists and MPs are being called out. Graham Adams writes –    With the election less than three weeks away, what co-governance means in practice — including in water management, education, planning law and local government — remains largely obscure. Which is hardly ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on whether Winston Peters can be a moderating influence
    As the centre-right has (finally!) been subjected to media interrogation, the polls are indicating that some voters may be starting to have second thoughts about the wisdom of giving National and ACT the power to govern alone. That’s why yesterday’s Newshub/Reid Research poll had the National/ACT combo dropping to 60 ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    6 days ago

  • Tuesday’s Chorus: RBNZ set to rain on National's victory parade
    ANZ has increased its forecast for house inflation later this year on signs of growing momentum in the market ahead of the election. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: National has campaigned against the Labour Government’s record on inflation and mortgage rates, but there’s now a growing chance the Reserve ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • After a Pittsburgh coal processing plant closed, ER visits plummeted
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Katie Myers. This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Pittsburgh, in its founding, was blessed and cursed with two abundant natural resources: free-flowing rivers and a nearby coal seam. ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • September-23 AT Board Meeting
    Today the AT board meet again and once again I’ve taken a look at what’s on the agenda to find the most interesting items. Closed Agenda Interestingly when I first looked at the agendas this paper was there but at the time of writing this post it had been ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • Electorate Watch: West Coast-Tasman
    Continuing my series on interesting electorates, today it’s West Coast-Tasman.A long thin electorate running down the northern half of the west coast of the South Island. Think sand flies, beautiful landscapes, lots of rain, Pike River, alternative lifestylers, whitebaiting, and the spiritual home of the Labour Party. A brief word ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Big money brings Winston back
    National leader Christopher Luxon yesterday morning conceded it and last night’s Newshub poll confirmed it; Winston Peters and NZ First are not only back but highly likely to be part of the next government. It is a remarkable comeback for a party that was tossed out of Parliament in ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • 20 days until Election Day, 7 until early voting begins… but what changes will we really see here?
    As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    6 days ago

  • A night out
    Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago

  • A pallid shade of Green III
    Clearly Labour's focus groups are telling it that it needs to pay more attention to climate change - because hot on the heels of their weaksauce energy efficiency pilot programme and not-great-but-better-than-nothing solar grants, they've released a full climate manifesto. Unfortunately, the core policies in it - a second Emissions ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago

  • A coalition of racism, cruelty, and chaos
    Today's big political news is that after months of wibbling, National's Chris Luxon has finally confirmed that he is willing to work with Winston Peters to become Prime Minister. Which is expected, but I guess it tells us something about which way the polls are going. Which raises the question: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago

  • More migrant workers should help generate the tax income needed to provide benefits for job seekers
    Buzz from the Beehive Under something described as a “rebalance” of its immigration rules, the Government has adopted four of five recommendations made in an independent review released in July, The fifth, which called on the government to specify criteria for out-of-hours compliance visits similar to those used during ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago

  • Letter To Luxon.
    Some of you might know Gerard Otto (G), and his G News platform. This morning he wrote a letter to Christopher Luxon which I particularly enjoyed, and with his agreement I’m sharing it with you in this guest newsletter.If you’d like to make a contribution to support Gerard’s work you ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: Alarming trend in benefit numbers
    Lindsay Mitchell writes –  While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend. Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON: Has there been external structural change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase.   Brian Easton writes –  Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • CRL Progress – Sep-23
    It’s been a while since we looked at the latest with the City Rail Link and there’s been some fantastic milestones recently. To start with, and most recently, CRL have released an awesome video showing a full fly-through of one of the tunnels. Come fly with us! You asked for ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    7 days ago

  • Monday’s Chorus: Not building nearly enough
    We are heading into another period of fast population growth without matching increased home building or infrastructure investment.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Labour and National detailed their house building and migration approaches over the weekend, with both pledging fast population growth policies without enough house building or infrastructure investment ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Game on; Hipkins comes out punching
    Labour leader Chris Hipkins yesterday took the gloves off and laid into National and its leader Christopher Luxon. For many in Labour – and particularly for some at the top of the caucus and the party — it would not have been a moment too soon. POLITIK is aware ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago

  • Tax Cut Austerity Blues.
    The leaders have had their go, they’ve told us the “what?” and the “why?” of their promises. Now it’s the turn of the would be Finance Ministers to tell us the “how?”, the “how much?”, and the “when?”A chance for those competing for the second most powerful job in the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • 100 new public EV chargers to be added to national network
    The public EV charging network has received a significant boost with government co-funding announced today for over 100 EV chargers – with over 200 charging ports altogether – across New Zealand, and many planned to be up and running on key holiday routes by Christmas this year. Minister of Energy ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago

  • Safeguarding Tuvalu language and identity
    Tuvalu is in the spotlight this week as communities across New Zealand celebrate Vaiaso o te Gagana Tuvalu – Tuvalu Language Week. “The Government has a proven record of supporting Pacific communities and ensuring more of our languages are spoken, heard and celebrated,” Pacific Peoples Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Many ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago

  • New community-level energy projects to support more than 800 Māori households
    Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Huge boost to Te Tai Tokerau flood resilience
    The Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Napier’s largest public housing development comes with solar
    The largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...
    Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefit
    Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Immigration settings updates
    Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga Hohepa
    Tangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Renewable energy fund to support community resilience
    40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • COVID-19 funding returned to Government
    The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Appointment of District Court Judge
    Susie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today.  Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
    The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-up
    Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Taupō Supercars revs up with Government support
    The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarter
    The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs
    The Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today.   “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • More support for victims of migrant exploitation
    Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Strong export boost as NZ economy turns corner
    An export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te Karaka
    The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Further business support for cyclone-affected regions
    The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underway
    Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General Assembly
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • Midwives’ pay equity offer reached
    Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

  • New Zealand provides support to Morocco
    Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

  • Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilience
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