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Written By: observer - Date published: 1:43 pm, March 12th, 2025
The link to the asset sales protests is not an accurate comparison. The timeline then was: 1) Key rules out asset sales in 1st term. 2) Key proposes asset sales in 2nd term. 3) Key wins 2nd term (for various other reasons but not asset sales, where polls ...Written By: observer - Date published: 4:11 pm, March 11th, 2025
Usual caveats, it's only Roy Morgan, but still ... the same story in every poll now: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9863-nz-national-voting-intention-february-2025 Trend down for Luxon & co.Written By: observer - Date published: 1:15 pm, March 11th, 2025
Cutting the regressive GST isn't neo-liberalism. Switching tax burden from work to property isn't neo-liberalism. Which is why I mentioned them.Written By: observer - Date published: 5:35 pm, March 10th, 2025
But even an Aussie "spill" includes the nomination of candidates and revealing the actual voting numbers. History here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill When National pick a new leader they refuse point-blank to even tell the public what the ...Written By: observer - Date published: 2:24 pm, March 10th, 2025
Canada's Liberals have a new leader, and new PM to be. And guess what? The leader was chosen by ... a party leadership election! Yes, that's how it's done in the vast majority of democracies around the world, including Right-wing parties like the UK Tories ...Written By: observer - Date published: 2:05 pm, March 10th, 2025
And an amusing aside on that poll ... it tells us 8.6% want Winston to be PM, but only 5.1% want to vote NZF. You wonder what those extra 3.5% are thinking ... vote National, get Winston as PM?Written By: observer - Date published: 1:41 pm, March 10th, 2025
Labour must sell a tax cut. There are several options (e.g. a cut in GST, reversing Key's increase, or as others have suggested, income tax at the bottom). And/or they could offer a radical indirect saving, like free dental care (see the Greens 2023). But ...Written By: observer - Date published: 1:25 pm, March 10th, 2025
I wish they'd hurry up and roll him, because Luxon can give the opposition a false sense of security. When you're facing the worst and most unpopular new PM this century (and arguably, in NZ polling history) then you're going to poll well without saying or ...Written By: observer - Date published: 6:40 pm, March 8th, 2025
Yes, Peters aligns himself with Trump (and not just on foreign policy). It's shameful. But the famous old definition of an ambassador is "somebody sent abroad to lie for his country". Goff's job was to represent a terrible government. He didn't resign on ...Written By: observer - Date published: 4:59 pm, March 8th, 2025
Goff overstepped. He was foolish. But really the only question here, once we strip away all the posturing and political theatre, is ... "Would he have been sacked if Peters/Luxon really wanted to keep him?". If he was important, to them. Of course not. A ...Written By: observer - Date published: 4:46 pm, March 8th, 2025
... them". I wouldn't. It's just observing the obvious. Seymour is a [ ...Written By: observer - Date published: 4:36 pm, March 6th, 2025
Goff probably overstepped, though that seems like a lesser crime than kissing Trump's butt. He'll have both public opinion (now) and (later) history on his side. A bigger story, which continues a familiar narrative, is that yet again the "PM in name only" ...Written By: observer - Date published: 1:30 pm, March 5th, 2025
Always remember that John Key, that sensible moderate guy with a great grasp of economics, endorsed Trump in 2024. Next time he does another jokey blokey photo-op, perhaps a reporter could ask why he wanted a global trade war. (And if his answer is "Oh, I ...Written By: observer - Date published: 6:29 pm, March 4th, 2025
It's still early at this stage, but it's pretty clear that there's some careful distancing from Seymour going on. When National replace Luxon the message to the swing voters will be "new management, not beholden to Seymour, centre-right, nice Nats, you can ...Written By: observer - Date published: 5:38 pm, March 4th, 2025
Obviously "marmite sandwich" will lead the news tonight (see 6 pm, shortly). But a bigger point is being missed. It's not what kids should have for lunch, but what Luxon promised they would have. (You could argue for a right-wing, small government approach ...Written By: observer - Date published: 1:34 pm, February 26th, 2025
There's a transcript here. The man is just weird. Stubborn, stupid. https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2025/02/26/mediawatch-luxon-train-wreck-interview-with-mike-hosking-is-so-embarrassing-it-hurts/Written By: observer - Date published: 1:33 pm, February 26th, 2025
Luxon can lose RNZ, but much worse, he has now lost Mike Hosking (see NZ Herald, Stuff etc). That's fatal for a National PM. And there's no indication at all that Luxon learns from these media failures. He doesn't change his robotic, repetitive ...Written By: observer - Date published: 10:15 pm, February 24th, 2025
And for the record, Ardern visited the Cook Islands shortly after taking office, when she was pregnant and derided by the Nats as the "part time PM". The super dynamic man-gets-things-done not-pregnant PM Luxon hasn't bothered going there yet. https://www. ...Written By: observer - Date published: 3:54 pm, February 24th, 2025
Summary of the day: Bayly: "I resign". Reporters: "What happened?" Bayly: "Not saying, that's all. Bye." Reporters to Luxon: "What happened?" Luxon: "What he said." So inept it's laughable.Written By: observer - Date published: 1:59 pm, February 24th, 2025
Bayly has just given a very brief and meaningless press conference - not even that, a couple of Qs and then walks away, after reading the same statement word-for-word that is already in the media. Another one who "doesn't get it". Talk like a robot, say ...Written By: observer - Date published: 1:24 pm, February 24th, 2025
If you tell NZ citizens who have been here for decades to "go back to [wherever]" then you stay in Luxon's cabinet. No problem, says the PM. On that scale, Bayly must have done something really bad. Or (and we can guess this is the real story) what he did ...Written By: observer - Date published: 2:23 pm, February 14th, 2025
Back when the Director-General of Health was Ashley Bloomfield and the PM was competent, a common response from the Right to the life-saving competence was ... "oh, it's not that hard, it would have happened anyway if our lot had been in power". The D-G ...Written By: observer - Date published: 2:11 pm, February 14th, 2025
The flaw in Hooton's musings is that historically NZF has only switched sides after a bust-up with the Nat/Lab governing party and a spell in opposition, or even out of Parliament completely. 1999 - below 5%, holds an electorate (Tauranga), then 6 years in ...Written By: observer - Date published: 8:05 pm, February 10th, 2025
As usual, TVNZ (1 News) bury the lede even when reporting on their own poll. Do they really have no memory of previous PMs, or the ability to Google results in their own polls? The story is right there, but they miss it, while doing meaningless vox pops ...Written By: observer - Date published: 4:51 pm, February 10th, 2025
Bad poll for Luxon out today (TPU/Curia) and another one out today at 6 pm (TVNZ). Willis and Bishop will be sharpening their knives ...Written By: observer - Date published: 2:41 pm, February 4th, 2025
The alarm bell ringing in that poll is NZ First scraping just above 5%. Soon Winston will be off the leash (no longer deputy PM, no longer sitting alongside Luxon in the House and playing loyal sidekick). Then he and Shane Jones will turn the rabble- ...Written By: observer - Date published: 2:33 pm, February 4th, 2025
The one thing Luxon can never, ever say is: "John Key was wrong". Luxon would be toast. The Nats don't love him, but they did love Key. So of course Luxon (and McClay and the rest) can't stand up and criticise Trump. But the rest of us should never forget ...Written By: observer - Date published: 5:54 pm, December 24th, 2024
Incorrect. There is no polling to suggest that the public "are happy with this outcome and its continuation in 2025". See the right/wrong track questions, and on specific policy areas. Always look beyond the headline numbers for the details. December ...Written By: observer - Date published: 3:59 pm, December 19th, 2024
It's not complicated really. Both National and Labour have a leader who is a negative rather than a positive. One is the most unpopular new PM in modern history (going back decades, since proper polling began). The other was a PM who led a failed, ...Written By: observer - Date published: 3:34 pm, December 19th, 2024
Sure, comments on The Standard might be similar, but that's not very significant. Lefties won't applaud a popular Nat any more than an unpopular one. What matters is public opinion outside the political echo chambers, and on that the difference between Key ...
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