A brighter future?
- Date published:
12:31 pm, September 23rd, 2011 - 32 comments
Categories: Economy, tourism -
An alert reader pointed out the new tourism forecasts.
I take a few points from this:
- Tourism has been in decline since 2004 but it really started plummeting after 2009.
- Tourism income has fallen over 10% in the last three years. Who’s Minister of Tourism, again? Guess pleading to get on Letterman didn’t really get all those tourists after all.
- The Rugby World Cup only makes a tiny blip. If it’s true that visitors for the RWC are spending $700m, then the fall would have been huge without it. Now, who got us the RWC again?
- You’ve got to the love the growth paradigm of forecasters. I mean, you’re looking at a record of seven years in which tourism income has fallen 18%, everyone knows there’s another global recession coming, and we’re in a cycle of oil price spikes caused by peak oil. And what do they predict? Steady growth.
- Even under this optimistic scenario, tourism income is only back to 2011 levels in 2016.
Looks like we need something other than tourism to pin our hopes on.