A few random predictions for 2022
- Date published:
11:30 am, January 1st, 2022 - 117 comments
Categories: australian politics, boris johnson, climate change, jacinda ardern, labour, national, uk politics, uncategorized -
Happy new year everyone.
A few random predictions for this year …
- Auckland Council, New Zealand and the world will continue to dither about climate change. We are running out of time. The world is full of good intentions but the only thing that matters is actually reducing CO2 and Methane emissions. A prediction and a somber one, this year the world will not get close to meeting agreed greenhouse gas emission goals.
- Omicron COVID will hit New Zealand some time during the year. Our vaccination response will continue to be impressive and will mean that we are preserved the worst of its effects. ANd another prediction, the country will hit 90% booster coverage by August.
- Chris Bishop and National will continue to claim that we need to loosen MIQ while blaming Labour for every time an individual Public Servant makes a slight mistake.
- National will have a relatively stable year with no leadership challenges and leaking will reduce to levels that allow for the continuation of rosy media relationships and no more.
- Labour’a polling will increase as Kiwis realise that the response to COVID continues to be strong. National’s support will improve at the cost of ACT’s support. The Greens’ support will remain stable. New Zealand First will continue to threaten the margin of error.
- Jacinda Arden will marry Clarke Gayford. Current arrangements suggest that electoral considerations are not the primary concern. The right will go to town on the event however and attempt to reduce its effect.
- In Auckland Phil Goff will not seek re-election as Mayor and open up an intense process for selection of the progressive candidate for his successor. David Shearer’s name has been floated with a couple of recent media puff pieces about him. I suspect the polling will not be helpful. If this is not done correctly and the best candidate not selected the right could win the Mayoralty and this would be a disaster for the city.
- In Australia Scomo will lose the election this year and Anthony Albanese and Labor will succeed. Scomo’s reign will hapefully be over. But Labor will not have a comprehensive plan to address climate change and mining magnates will continue to exercise far too much power.
- In England Boris Johnson will continue to stumble from self inflicted wound to self inflicted wound. Labour’s recent rise in the opinion polls will hold steady, not out of a sense of excitement but because too many Britons realise what a total cluster Boris is.
Feel free to contribute predictions in the comments. A chocolate fish will be awarded to the most outlandish prediction that proves to be correct.