web analytics

A missing NZ Herald poll?

Written By: - Date published: 1:54 pm, October 23rd, 2008 - 23 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls, rumour - Tags: ,

Now I’m not one to gossip (well, not too much) but in the last few days I’ve heard from several people that the NZ Herald has held back an opinion poll. Why might they do this? Well perhaps it’s related to NZ First apparently polling over 5%. That could really set the cat amongst the pigeons. Meanwhile according to Ali Akram this morning the TV3 poll is out tonight.

Nb: The last published poll from the NZ Herald was back in September.

Update: They’ve found it again – but clearly it’s different beast to what was on the rumour circuit!

23 comments on “A missing NZ Herald poll? ”

  1. Lew 1

    Apocryphally, I’ve heard that the October 2006 One News poll being withheld from publication resulted in John Key rolling Don Brash as National leader.

    The source (an academic who I know of, but don’t know personally) says he overheard a senior One News political journalist on the phone to his producer, who was telling him that Brash had made a big boost in the Preferred PM stakes, where previously Key had closed on him. The journalist allegedly said he didn’t believe the result and wanted it checked before it would go to air. The poll didn’t make the 6 o’clock news, apparently has still not been published, and a few weeks later Key replaced Brash.

    Note that I don’t claim this as the full truth, or even the partial truth. I’m sure it’s more complicated than it seems, and there’s also a counterfactual inherent in the story. But it’d be interesting to know the full skinny. Interested to see if anyone can dig up the October 2006 One News poll (I can’t, with a cursory google).

    L

  2. bobo 2

    Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release and why wasn’t the article a few weeks ago showing stats of record numbers leaving Australia given as much front page prominence ?

  3. Chris G 3

    good point bobo,

    Adding to that: In the Otago Daily Times the record numbers leaving Aussie (Highest percentage going to NZ) made page 5 and it was barely a column.

    But whaleoil etc will tell you its the ‘liberal media’ …. Riiiiiight.

  4. Lampie 4

    “Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release and why wasn’t the article a few weeks ago showing stats of record numbers leaving Australia given as much front page prominence ?”

    know what you mean

  5. and why do they always acted amazed that when we have a record population there is a record number of people migrating? All things being equal, that is exactly what one would expect to happen

    There is a migration cycle and, as we have shown in the past, this current cycle is well within historic norms in terms of % of the population emigrating.

  6. relic 6

    Well the Roy Morgan and TV3 polls of several weeks back that showed Labour/Greens resurgent did not make the Herald front page either. Polls make the running as well as describe it. The Herald ran just about any poll with good numbers for National as a news story over the last year or more.

  7. Lampie 7

    Period Net gain or loss from total migration Net gain or loss from permanent and long-term migration(1)
    Series ref: EMI S3ZA S3E

    Month of September
    1998 3,931 -271
    1999 11,140 308
    2000 -9,532 812
    2001 10,687 3,512
    2002 15,889 4,419
    2003 14,699 3,702
    2004 13,867 2,165
    2005 -10,591 1,952
    2006 -1,708 2,662
    2007 -3,035 2,241
    2008 1,943 1,706

    Year ended September
    1998 -6,980 -3,863
    1999 268 -10,544
    2000 -18,917 -9,528
    2001 34,334 -1,691
    2002 73,313 37,110
    2003 51,166 40,437
    2004 7,307 17,757
    2005 -15,081 6,405
    2006 23,331 13,200
    2007 11,095 8,309
    2008 21,282 4,403

  8. Lew 8

    relic: Well, there is more news value in `Opposition looks likely to unseat government’ than in `Government looks likely to retain power’. One is change. One is stasis.

    L

  9. Lampie 9

    darn

    year, second figure is Net gain or loss from total migration, third is Net gain or loss from permanent and long-term migration

    i.e. 1998 3931 -271

  10. Tim Ellis 10

    I’m not sure what the exact timing of the polls is, but I keep a fairly close record of it. By my reckoning the Herald Poll is generally monthly and should be due out at the end of this week. The Roy Morgan poll was a week late two weeks ago, (probably scheduled to be), but there should be a new one out this week. This is normally published on a Thursday or a Friday.

    The last TV3 poll (normally monthly) appeared two weeks ago. They may have shifted to fortnightly polling for the last few weeks of the election. If there is one this week, then they would probably have their last poll out a few days before election day, which would make sense.

    I very much doubt though that any media organisation is withholding poll results. They normally hold the poll for a day or two before it’s published to get political reaction, and to avoid competing polls coming out on the same night.

  11. Ianmac 11

    And remember the thing we mentioned on another post.”Given that National is going to win by a landslide, or so the polls have said for over a year, and yet growing numbers are exiting NZ! Wot!! They should be flooding in at the prospect- shouldn’t They?”
    Anyway I love NZ. Like my Mum I wouldn’t swap her for any other! So those who bad-mouth our country and our democratically elected leadership, let me help you buy a ticket. NZ is great!

  12. Lampie 12

    And remember the thing we mentioned on another post.’Given that National is going to win by a landslide, or so the polls have said for over a year, and yet growing numbers are exiting NZ! Wot!! They should be flooding in at the prospect- shouldn’t They?’

    All us lefties leaving no doubt 🙁

  13. insider 13

    Didn’t we have this same story a week or two ago about TV3 holding back a poll to recheck it? Sounded like conspiracist rubbish then and still sounds like that. The Standard’s writers’ former assiduous attention to polls seemed to evaporate over the weekend when two major ones were issued. What happened there? Oh that’s right, you were ‘busy’…

  14. randal 14

    who cares about the polls anyway. Labour will win going away and the only thing National will beat home is the ambulance.

  15. Scribe 15

    Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release and why wasn’t the article a few weeks ago showing stats of record numbers leaving Australia given as much front page prominence ?

    Um, bobo, check the paper’s masthead. It’s called The New Zealand Herald, not The Australia Herald.

    Want the number of people on Australia’s waiting lists and Australian decisions on xenotransplantation on the front page of The New Zealand Herald as well?

  16. Lampie 16

    Want the number of people on Australia’s waiting lists and Australian decisions on xenotransplantation on the front page of The New Zealand Herald as well?

    be better reporting than the crap we have here

  17. Scribe 17

    Well, that’s a different discussion, Lampie 😉

    BTW, the TV3 poll has come out. The poll has National on 45 and Labour on 37, which is exactly where I’ve predicted they would be on polling day (not that anyone listens).

    Has the Greens on 8+, meaning National vs Labour/Greens is all tied up, though ACT/UF give the centre/right a slight edge.

    Maori Party, with these numbers, would indeed be kingmakers.

    Still 16 days to go, though, so things could go either way a couple of times yet. And this poll may not be all that accurate. Who knows?

    16 intriguing days ahead. Put on your cycle helmets!

  18. Scribe 18

    For those who missed the cycle helmets allusion, see here: http://www.stuff.co.nz/thepress/4737003a24035.html

  19. Lampie 19

    Well, that’s a different discussion, Lampie

    yeap, too much opinionated crap.

  20. gobsmacked 20

    From NZPA:

    A new opinion poll has fired up the election campaign, showing Labour and the Greens closely matching National and its right-wing partner ACT.

    TV3’s poll results, released tonight, mean neither of the main parties would have a majority in a 123-seat Parliament and the Maori Party would be in a position to decide which of them formed the next government.

    The Greens continued the steady gains they have posted in recent polls, climbing to 8.8 per cent support which would give them 11 seats in Parliament.

    Add those to Labour’s 47, put in Jim Anderton, and the centre-left would have 59 seats.

    National, ACT and United Future’s Peter Dunne would make up 60 seats.

  21. burt 21

    Lampie

    “Can the Herald headline today of more NZers leaving than ever be viewed as a Nats press release”

    If National had a policy to drive people out of NZ then yes it could – but as we have had 9 years of Labour govt… Sorry it’s an advertisement for Labour party policies – specifically low rich prick tax thresholds and low wages.

    ianmac said;

    So those who bad-mouth our country and our democratically elected leadership, let me help you buy a ticket. NZ is great!

    Democratically elected – that is very very funny. Come on ianmac, Labour are NZ’s first retrospectively validated govt. Helen Clark is NZ’s first retrospectively validated PM.

    Retrospectively validating for allegedly breaking electoral funding laws and to shut down a court case and ‘democratically elected’ are mutually exclusive.

  22. appleboy 22

    That the Herald is withholding a poll should be a news report in itself by TV1/ TV3/National Radio – that is pure deception and bias in its most blatant.

  23. NeillR 23

    Doesn’t look like withholding to me
    Caution: may cause watering of the eyes to left-leaning supporters.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Ginny Andersen appointed as Minister of Police
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has today appointed Ginny Andersen as Minister of Police. “Ginny Andersen has a strong and relevant background in this important portfolio,” Chris Hipkins said. “Ginny Andersen worked for the Police as a non-sworn staff member for around 10 years and has more recently been chair of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Government confirms vital roading reconnections
    Six further bailey bridge sites confirmed Four additional bridge sites under consideration 91 per cent of damaged state highways reopened Recovery Dashboards for impacted regions released The Government has responded quickly to restore lifeline routes after Cyclone Gabrielle and can today confirm that an additional six bailey bridges will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Foreign Minister Mahuta to meet with China’s new Foreign Minister
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for China tomorrow, where she will meet with her counterpart, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, in Beijing. This will be the first visit by a New Zealand Minister to China since 2019, and follows the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions between New Zealand and China. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Education Ministers from across the Pacific gather in Aotearoa
    Education Ministers from across the Pacific will gather in Tāmaki Makaurau this week to share their collective knowledge and strategic vision, for the benefit of ākonga across the region. New Zealand Education Minister Jan Tinetti will host the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers (CPEM) for three days from today, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • State Highway 5 reopens between Napier and Taupō following Cyclone Gabrielle
    A vital transport link for communities and local businesses has been restored following Cyclone Gabrielle with the reopening of State Highway 5 (SH5) between Napier and Taupō, Associate Minister of Transport Kiri Allan says. SH5 reopened to all traffic between 7am and 7pm from today, with closure points at SH2 (Kaimata ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Special Lotto draw raises $11.7 million for Cyclone Gabrielle recovery
    Internal Affairs Minister Barbara Edmonds has thanked generous New Zealanders who took part in the special Lotto draw for communities affected by Cyclone Gabrielle. Held on Saturday night, the draw raised $11.7 million with half of all ticket sales going towards recovery efforts. “In a time of need, New Zealanders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government delivers a $3 million funding boost for Building Financial Capability services
    The Government has announced funding of $3 million for providers to help people, and whānau access community-based Building Financial Capability services. “Demand for Financial Capability Services is growing as people face cost of living pressures. Those pressures are increasing further in areas affected by flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle,” Minister for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Education New Zealand | Manapou ki te Ao – new Chair and member
    Minister of Education, Hon Jan Tinetti, has announced appointments to the Board of Education New Zealand | Manapou ki te Ao. Tracey Bridges is joining the Board as the new Chair and Dr Therese Arseneau will be a new member. Current members Dr Linda Sissons CNZM and Daniel Wilson have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Scholarships honouring Ngarimu VC and the 28th (Māori) Battalion announced
    Fifteen ākonga Māori from across Aotearoa have been awarded the prestigious Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships and Awards for 2023, Associate Education Minister and Ngarimu Board Chair, Kelvin Davis announced today.  The recipients include doctoral, masters’ and undergraduate students. Three vocational training students and five wharekura students, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Appointment of Judge of the Court of Appeal and Judge of the High Court
    High Court Judge Jillian Maree Mallon has been appointed a Judge of the Court of Appeal, and District Court Judge Andrew John Becroft QSO has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Mallon graduated from Otago University in 1988 with an LLB (Hons), and with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ still well placed to meet global challenges
    The economy has continued to show its resilience despite today’s GDP figures showing a modest decline in the December quarter, leaving the Government well positioned to help New Zealanders face cost of living pressures in a challenging global environment. “The economy had grown strongly in the two quarters before this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Western Ring Route Complete
    Aucklanders now have more ways to get around as Transport Minister Michael Wood opened the direct State Highway 1 (SH1) to State Highway 18 (SH18) underpass today, marking the completion of the 48-kilometre Western Ring Route (WRR). “The Government is upgrading New Zealand’s transport system to make it safer, more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Briefings to Incoming Ministers
    This section contains briefings received by incoming ministers following changes to Cabinet in January. Some information may have been withheld in accordance with the Official Information Act 1982. Where information has been withheld that is indicated within the document. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Teaming up for a stronger, more resilient Fiji
    Aotearoa New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta reaffirmed her commitment to working together with the new Government of Fiji on issues of shared importance, including on the prioritisation of climate change and sustainability, at a meeting today, in Nadi. Fiji and Aotearoa New Zealand’s close relationship is underpinned by the Duavata ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Investment in blue highway a lifeline for regional economies and cyclone recovery
    The Government is delivering a coastal shipping lifeline for businesses, residents and the primary sector in the cyclone-stricken regions of Hawkes Bay and Tairāwhiti, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan announced today. The Rangitata vessel has been chartered for an emergency coastal shipping route between Gisborne and Napier, with potential for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Next steps developing clean energy for NZ
    The Government will progress to the next stage of the NZ Battery Project, looking at the viability of pumped hydro as well as an alternative, multi-technology approach as part of the Government’s long term-plan to build a resilient, affordable, secure and decarbonised energy system in New Zealand, Energy and Resources ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Statement from the Prime Minister on Stuart Nash
    This morning I was made aware of a media interview in which Minister Stuart Nash criticised a decision of the Court and said he had contacted the Police Commissioner to suggest the Police appeal the decision. The phone call took place in 2021 when he was not the Police Minister. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • CPTPP Trade Ministers coming to Auckland
    The Government’s sharp focus on trade continues with Aotearoa New Zealand set to host Trade Ministers and delegations from 10 Asia Pacific economies at a meeting of Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) Commission members in July, Minister for Trade and Export Growth Damien O’Connor announced today. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt approves $25 million extension for cyclone-affected businesses
    $25 million boost to support more businesses with clean-up in cyclone affected regions, taking total business support to more than $50 million Demand for grants has been strong, with estimates showing applications will exceed the initial $25 million business support package Grants of up to a maximum of $40,000 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More than 160,000 new Kiwis to call NZ home
    80 per cent of 2021 Resident Visas applications have been processed – three months ahead of schedule Residence granted to 160,000 people 84,000 of 85,000 applications have been approved Over 160,000 people have become New Zealand residents now that 80 per cent of 2021 Resident Visa (2021RV) applications have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand to attend regional security meeting in Australia
    The Lead Coordination Minister for the Government’s Response to the Royal Commission’s Report into the Terrorist Attack on the Christchurch Mosques travels to Melbourne, Australia today to represent New Zealand at the fourth Sub-Regional Meeting on Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Security. “The Government is committed to reducing the threat of terrorism ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Health and safety action plan for ports
    The health and safety practices at our nation’s ports will be improved as part of a new industry-wide action plan, Workplace Relations and Safety, and Transport Minister Michael Wood has announced. “Following the tragic death of two port workers in Auckland and Lyttelton last year, I asked the Port Health ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Bikes and scooters to be exempt from FBT
    Bikes, electric bikes and scooters will be added to the types of transport exempted from fringe benefit tax under changes proposed today. Revenue Minister David Parker said the change would allow bicycles, electric bicycles, scooters, electric scooters, and micro-mobility share services to be exempt from fringe benefit tax where they ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Foreign Affairs Minister to reaffirm our close relationship with Fiji
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta will hold bilateral meetings with Fiji this week. The visit will be her first to the country since the election of the new coalition Government led by Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sitiveni Rabuka. The visit will be an opportunity to meet kanohi ki ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New legislation to streamline Cyclone recovery
    The Government is introducing the Severe Weather Emergency Legislation Bill to ensure the recovery and rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle is streamlined and efficient with unnecessary red tape removed. The legislation is similar to legislation passed following the Christchurch and Kaikōura earthquakes that modifies existing legislation in order to remove constraints ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Cost of living package: More bread and butter support for Kiwi families
    Approximately 1.4 million people will benefit from increases to rates and thresholds for social assistance to help with the cost of living Superannuation to increase by over $100 a pay for a couple Main benefits to increase by the rate of inflation, meaning a family on a benefit with children ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Freeing up more government bandwidth and money to focus on the cost of living
    $1 billion in savings which will be reallocated to support New Zealanders with the cost of living A range of transport programmes deferred so Waka Kotahi can focus on post Cyclone road recovery Speed limit reduction programme significantly narrowed to focus on the most dangerous one per cent of state ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • State of National Emergency to end for Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay
    The remaining state of national emergency over the Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay regions will end on Tuesday 14 March, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. Minister McAnulty gave notice of a national transition period over these regions, which will come into effect immediately following the end of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government delivers on Dawn Raids commitment
    The Government is today delivering on one of its commitments as part of the New Zealand Government’s Dawn Raids apology, welcoming a cohort of emerging Pacific leaders to Aotearoa New Zealand participating in the He Manawa Tītī Scholarship Programme. This cohort will participate in a bespoke leadership training programme that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New plan to increase productivity and high wage jobs across advanced manufacturing sector
    Industry Transformation Plan to transform advanced manufacturing through increased productivity and higher-skilled, higher-wage jobs into a globally-competitive low-emissions sector. Co-created and co-owned by business, unions and workers, government, Māori, Pacific peoples and wider stakeholders. A plan to accelerate the growth and transformation of New Zealand’s advanced manufacturing sector was launched ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Aotearoa New Zealand supports Pacific countries to combat animal disease 
    New Zealand will provide support for Pacific countries to prevent the spread of harmful animal diseases, Associate Minister of Agriculture Meka Whaitiri said. The Associate Minister is attending a meeting of Pacific Ministers during the Pacific Week of Agriculture and Forestry in Nadi, Fiji. “Highly contagious diseases such as African ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government delivers better public transport for Christchurch
    The Public Transport Futures project will deliver approximately: 100 more buses providing a greater number of seats to a greater number of locations at a higher frequency Over 470 more bus shelters to support a more enjoyable travel experience Almost 200 real time display units providing accurate information on bus ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Minister praises education heroes in cyclone damaged regions
    All but six schools and kura have reopened for onsite learning All students in the six closed schools or kura are being educated in other schools, online, or in alternative locations Over 4,300 education hardpacks distributed to support students Almost 38,000 community meals provided by suppliers of the Ka Ora ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government investments drive health and business outcomes in the Bay of Plenty
    A new health centre has opened with financial support from the Government and further investment has been committed to projects that will accelerate Māori economic opportunities, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan says. Community health provider QE Health will continue its long history in Rotorua with the official opening of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • UK NZ Working Holiday Scheme upgraded
    The new three year NZ UK Working Holiday Visas (WHV) will now be delivered earlier than expected, coming into force by July this year in time to support businesses through the global labour shortages Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says. The improved WHV, successfully negotiated alongside the NZ UK Free trade ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 2023 Offshore Renewable Energy Forum, New Plymouth
    It seems like only yesterday that we launched the discussion document Enabling Investment in Offshore Renewable Energy, which is the key theme for this Forum. Everyone in this room understands the enormous potential of offshore wind in Aotearoa New Zealand – and particularly this region.  Establishing a regime to pave ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Milestone reached in crack down on gangs
    Police has reached a major milestone filing over 28,000 charges related to Operation Cobalt. “I’m extremely proud of the fantastic work that our Police has been doing to crack down on gangs, and keep our communities safe. The numbers speak for themselves – with over 28,000 charges, Police are getting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New funding for Cyclone waste removal
    The Government will provide $15 million in the short term to local councils to remove rubbish, as a longer-term approach is developed, the Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Several regions are facing significant costs associated with residential waste removal, which has the potential to become a public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government working faster and smarter to support response and recovery
    $15 million of immediate reimbursement for marae, iwi, recognised rural and community groups $2 million for community food providers $0.5 million for additional translation services Increasing the caps of the Community and Provider funds The Government has announced $17.5 million to further support communities and community providers impacted by Cyclone ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • More Māori getting access to mental health and addiction services
    The Government’s approach of using frontline service providers to address inequities for Māori with mental health and addiction needs is making good progress in many communities, a new report says. An independent evaluation into the Māori Access and Choice programme, commissioned by Te Whatu Ora has highlighted the programme’s success ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2023-03-20T16:43:52+00:00