We would all like to see the number of people on benefits decrease. It ain’t a nice life on the benefit. People who can work prefer to do it. That’s why Labour got benefit numbers down by 104,000 and reduced the unemployment benefit to 17,000 – by creating 427,000 jobs. Create the opportunities for work and people will jump at them.
The only way to reduce benefit numbers, short of putting people on the streets, is to create jobs.
Treasury is forecasting job growth of just 125,000 in the next 4 years (yeah, I know Key says 170,000 in 4 years – he’s counting last year’s growth too). That’s barely enough to keep up with population growth – this ‘strong’ recovery will, apparently see job growth of only two-thirds of what Labour averaged.
While total jobs grow by 125,000. The labour-force will grow by 104,000, meaning unemployment will fall by only 21,000 in the next 4 years. Remember, it went up 58,000 in National’s first two and a half years.
This anemic job growth will, according to Treasury, see benefit numbers fall by just 20,000 by 2016.
Now, National’s big idea is to get 46,000 more people off benefits and into work and a further 11,000 into part-time work will getting a benefit.
If my maths works, that’s 57,000 more jobs on top of what’s projected. That’s, what, 46% more job growth than Treasury forecasts.
How does National’s welfare policy create those 57,000 jobs?
It doesn’t, of course. It’s all a farce.
They’re going to make people jump through more hoops and put in more job applications but, if you do that, you’ll still get the benefit. And they’re not going to do a thing about creating more jobs – remember, they can’t say ‘growth will take care of it’s their policy is reliant on more jobs on top of those expected from growth.
No jobs, no people off benefits.
Unless you do something about the lack of jobs, you won’t get benefit numbers done. Promising the latter without doing the former is a fraud on New Zealand.