web analytics

Another poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, August 9th, 2010 - 17 comments
Categories: Economy, polls - Tags:

For the poll junkies – yes there’s been another poll. It’s headed “Labour make gains”, but it’s margin of error stuff, so don’t get too excited.

The TV One Colmar Brunton poll tonight showed Labour up 2 points to 35 per cent. National remained ahead with 49 per cent.

The Greens were on 7 per cent, Act 2.7, the Maori Party 2.3 and New Zealand First 2.3.

When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.

For the record, I’m still picking National to lose the next election. Because – it’s the economy stupid. And National haven’t got a clue.

17 comments on “Another poll ”

  1. There is no such thing as a bad poll when your support increases.

    Interesting that both TV1 and TV3 arranged polls at the same time, presumably in anticipation that Chris Carter’s difficulties would hurt Labour’s standing. It obviously has not and Phil’s firm stance has helped with his own personal standing.

    Politics is a funny thing …

    • A Post With Me In It 1.1

      I think you are confusing the concept of “increased”.

      If your “increase” is within the margin of error you don’t actually know its an increase at all me old chum. 🙂

  2. Lanthanide 2

    The rest of the polling data from the article linked to which is worth discussing (don’t know why you didn’t include it)

    TV one preferred prime minister: “When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.”

    TV 3 polling:

    “However, just 24 per cent thought Mr Goff could lead Labour to a win at the next election, while 64 per cent said he could not.

    Among Labour voters he had a little more luck – 47 per cent believed he could win, 39 per cent that he couldn’t.

    A TV3 Reid Research poll also out tonight put National on 54.5 per cent, Labour on 30.6, Greens on 8.5, Act on 2.2 and Maori Party and NZ First on 1.5 and United Future on 0.2.

    Mr Key was well out in front in the preferred prime minister stakes, with on 48.7 per cent support, while Mr Goff was on 7.4 and NZ First leader Winston Peters on 3.7.”

    • I always thought that asking whether or not a voter thought that a leader may win the next election for his party was a waste of time.

      The only relevant information is actual party support. If a person’s preference is affected by their perception of the leader then this will show in the party support figures.

      The polls are closing. Labout is doing I think a reasonably good job about highlighting the issues that count but keeps getting sidetracked by attacks. If they can stick to the message that this Government is doing nothing to improve the situation for ordinary kiwis and in fact is making it far worse then the next election is up for grabs.

      The Labour-Green National- allies split from the Colmar Brunton poll is 42 to 54. There is still at least 12 months to the next election.

      If you want to see how quickly support can change have a look at our Australian neighbours.

  3. Pat 3

    “I’m still picking National to loose the next election.”

    With Carter on the loose they cannot lose. But if Key gets any looser he might be a loser.

  4. Tigger 4

    TV3’s choice of images last night was utterly bizarre. When showing Key he was patting wide-eyed children affectionately. Goff was wandering down a Beehive hallway. Also, they showed Goff saying ‘bullshit’. And Chris Carter was shown cooking an omlette. Not sure what subliminal message they were trying to send.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    it seems to me Labour’s tribal vote is a rock solid 30% – which I think (based on the double dipper’s disasterous show in 2002) is around 5-7% more than the National tribal vote. Chris Carter’s shenanagins may have simply caused core Labour supporters to close ranks against him.

    Labour/Green is 14% behind National. That is, Labour/Greens need to turn around about 150,000 or so voters. If the economy tanks and Labour can give people a reason to vote for them, that is totally achievable.

    • loota 5.1

      The thing is, the economy by no means flash today and National is still holding around 50%. Australia is still striding ahead of us and even if the MSM is not picking up this message, friends in Australia usually send back live reports loud and clear.

      How bad do things have to get in this country employment and economy-wise before National support erodes to the 40% mark? Not sure I want to be around to witness that, it will be unpleasant.

      • Kevin Welsh 5.1.1

        You want to try working in Napier loota, the Onekawa industrial suburb feels like a dead zone now. Hardly a week goes by without news of another closure and I have it on good authority that several high profile companies in the area have problems.

        12 Months is a very long time in politics and even that idiot Garner said on 3 News last night that he expected the gap to close considerably next year.

  6. brooklyn08 6

    I got the feeling after watching both TVNZ’s and TV3’s coverage of their polls, that they didn’t quite fit the narrative they had hoped for, which I think was either that the Carter saga had hurt or benefitted Goff and Labour. Alas, the movement (in Labour’s favour) was so slight, that neither conclusion could be confidently reached. But what’s with that Reid Research poll? A 14 point gap in the Colmar-Brunton compared to a 24-point gap with Reid research? The Colmar-Brunton seems more aligned with the Roy Morgan of late. Generally, Labour has been inching ahead in support, the Greens are doing well, and National, while still polling high, has been knocked from its lofty heights (gosh I recall 60% in one poll). I’d imagine it’s all downhill for National from now until the election – the rate of descent coupled with the timing of the election will determine who wins in 2011 (and of course Labour’s ability to capitalise on a gravity-afflicted National Party). Then there’s the Winston Peters factor, but Labour could just permanently borrow his superannuation policy meaning lefties need not vote NZ First, at least.

  7. gobsmacked 7

    There is no surprise in these polls. They tell us:

    1) Key is a popular Prime Minister. Especially with people who are not very interested in politics. He is seen as the celeb, the non-political PM (note: in image, not reality).

    Unfortunately for Key and National, the wider public may ignore politics between elections, but they do take an interest at election time. He will need something more than the Rugby World Cup.

    2) The Chris Carter story is of huge interest to the press gallery and paid pontificators, and of very little interest to the general public. Hence … no real change in the polls. Why would there be?

    3) On policy, Labour/Greens have been making steady inroads, over several months now. Almost every policy issue is a negative for National. They back down (e.g. mining) or they lose (e.g. Aussie wage gap).

    People like Key. They don’t like his government’s policies.

    The lesson is clear. The opposition focus must be:

    Policy, policy, policy. Gain percentage point by percentage point. Month by month. Delete all distractions, and if necessary, delete the fools who provide the distractions (Shane Jones, Chris Carter). Talk about the economy, wages, prices, jobs, health, ACC, etc, etc.

    It’s not thrill-a-minute, not for political junkies like us, not for the press gallery who want Big Bangs. But if you want entertainment, watch movies. This is reality.

    (although when you think about a NACT second term …. that’s a horror movie. A sequel. Let’s make sure it never gets made).

    • marsman 7.1

      Right on gobsmacked. And also…Let’s do our best to un-make the the NACT horror movie part 1.

    • Adrian 7.2

      Exactly, beautifully said.. p.s Business confidence down again today. The fall of idols is a slow process, but it is happening. We have to remind people, that actually we did have it bloody good under Labour, and will again.

      • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1

        Not if they maintain the capitalist/dictatorial paradigm. Of course, most of us haven’t had it “good” under that system ever – just less bad.

    • Armchair Critic 7.3

      Nicely said, gs. Hoping for a big bang implosion from National won’t work, Labour need to gradually build their support so they can win an election by May next year (just in case…).
      On the horror movie theme, There is a Friday the 13th next May.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Fast-tracked Northland water project will accelerate economic recovery
    The Government has welcomed the decision to approve a new water storage reservoir in Northland, the first of a number of infrastructure projects earmarked for a speedy consenting process that aims to accelerate New Zealand’s economic recovery from Covid-19.  The Matawii Water Storage Reservoir will provide drinking water for Kaikohe, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago
  • Tokelau Language Week reminds us to stay united and strong
    Staying strong in the face of challenges and being true to our heritage and languages are key to preserving our cultural identity and wellbeing, is the focus of the 2020 Tokelau Language Week. Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio, says this year’s theme, ‘Apoapo tau foe, i nā tāfea ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ announces a third P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    The Government has deployed a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea, announced Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “New Zealand has long supported ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pacific trade and development agreement a reality
    Pacific regional trade and development agreement PACER Plus will enter into force in 60 days now that the required eight countries have ratified it. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the announcement that the Cook Islands is the eighth nation to ratify this landmark agreement. “The agreement represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Securing a pipeline of teachers
    The Government is changing its approach to teacher recruitment as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue, by boosting a range of initiatives to get more Kiwis into teaching. “When we came into Government, we were faced with a teacher supply crisis,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “Over the past three years, we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas
    The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions. “The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • First COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreement signed
    The Government has signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, say Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods and Health Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • International statement – End-to-end encryption and public safety
    We, the undersigned, support strong encryption, which plays a crucial role in protecting personal data, privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets and cyber security.  It also serves a vital purpose in repressive states to protect journalists, human rights defenders and other vulnerable people, as stated in the 2017 resolution of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministry of Defence Biodefence Assessment released
    The Ministry of Defence has today released a Defence Assessment examining Defence’s role across the spectrum of biological hazards and threats facing New Zealand. Biodefence: Preparing for a New Era of Biological Hazards and Threats looks at how the NZDF supports other agencies’ biodefence activities, and considers the context of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020
    New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020 Hon David Parker’s response following Thomas Piketty and Esther Duflo. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever in the world you might be. I first acknowledge the excellent thought provoking speeches of Thomas Piketty and Esther ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Kaipara Moana restoration takes next step
    A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed today at Waihāua Marae between the Crown, local iwi and councils to protect, restore and enhance the mauri of Kaipara Moana in Northland. Environment Minister David Parker signed the document on behalf of the Crown along with representatives from Ngā Maunga Whakahī, Ngāti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Uruguay unite on reducing livestock production emissions
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries Carlos María Uriarte have welcomed the launch of a three-year project that will underpin sustainable livestock production in Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.  The project called ‘Innovation for pasture management’ is led by Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • 3100 jobs created through marae upgrades
    Hundreds of marae throughout the country will be upgraded through investments from the Provincial Growth Fund’s refocused post COVID-19 funding to create jobs and put money into the pockets of local tradespeople and businesses, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced. “A total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Health volunteers recognised in annual awards
    Health Minister Chris Hipkins has announced 9 teams and 14 individuals are the recipients of this year’s Minister of Health Volunteer Awards.  “The health volunteer awards celebrate and recognise the thousands of dedicated health sector volunteers who give many hours of their time to help other New Zealanders,” Mr Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Community COVID-19 Fund supports Pacific recovery
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. “I am keen to see this Fund support Pacific ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago