web analytics

Another poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, August 9th, 2010 - 17 comments
Categories: Economy, polls - Tags:

For the poll junkies – yes there’s been another poll. It’s headed “Labour make gains”, but it’s margin of error stuff, so don’t get too excited.

The TV One Colmar Brunton poll tonight showed Labour up 2 points to 35 per cent. National remained ahead with 49 per cent.

The Greens were on 7 per cent, Act 2.7, the Maori Party 2.3 and New Zealand First 2.3.

When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.

For the record, I’m still picking National to lose the next election. Because – it’s the economy stupid. And National haven’t got a clue.

17 comments on “Another poll ”

  1. There is no such thing as a bad poll when your support increases.

    Interesting that both TV1 and TV3 arranged polls at the same time, presumably in anticipation that Chris Carter’s difficulties would hurt Labour’s standing. It obviously has not and Phil’s firm stance has helped with his own personal standing.

    Politics is a funny thing …

    • A Post With Me In It 1.1

      I think you are confusing the concept of “increased”.

      If your “increase” is within the margin of error you don’t actually know its an increase at all me old chum. 🙂

  2. Lanthanide 2

    The rest of the polling data from the article linked to which is worth discussing (don’t know why you didn’t include it)

    TV one preferred prime minister: “When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.”

    TV 3 polling:

    “However, just 24 per cent thought Mr Goff could lead Labour to a win at the next election, while 64 per cent said he could not.

    Among Labour voters he had a little more luck – 47 per cent believed he could win, 39 per cent that he couldn’t.

    A TV3 Reid Research poll also out tonight put National on 54.5 per cent, Labour on 30.6, Greens on 8.5, Act on 2.2 and Maori Party and NZ First on 1.5 and United Future on 0.2.

    Mr Key was well out in front in the preferred prime minister stakes, with on 48.7 per cent support, while Mr Goff was on 7.4 and NZ First leader Winston Peters on 3.7.”

    • I always thought that asking whether or not a voter thought that a leader may win the next election for his party was a waste of time.

      The only relevant information is actual party support. If a person’s preference is affected by their perception of the leader then this will show in the party support figures.

      The polls are closing. Labout is doing I think a reasonably good job about highlighting the issues that count but keeps getting sidetracked by attacks. If they can stick to the message that this Government is doing nothing to improve the situation for ordinary kiwis and in fact is making it far worse then the next election is up for grabs.

      The Labour-Green National- allies split from the Colmar Brunton poll is 42 to 54. There is still at least 12 months to the next election.

      If you want to see how quickly support can change have a look at our Australian neighbours.

  3. Pat 3

    “I’m still picking National to loose the next election.”

    With Carter on the loose they cannot lose. But if Key gets any looser he might be a loser.

  4. Tigger 4

    TV3’s choice of images last night was utterly bizarre. When showing Key he was patting wide-eyed children affectionately. Goff was wandering down a Beehive hallway. Also, they showed Goff saying ‘bullshit’. And Chris Carter was shown cooking an omlette. Not sure what subliminal message they were trying to send.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    it seems to me Labour’s tribal vote is a rock solid 30% – which I think (based on the double dipper’s disasterous show in 2002) is around 5-7% more than the National tribal vote. Chris Carter’s shenanagins may have simply caused core Labour supporters to close ranks against him.

    Labour/Green is 14% behind National. That is, Labour/Greens need to turn around about 150,000 or so voters. If the economy tanks and Labour can give people a reason to vote for them, that is totally achievable.

    • loota 5.1

      The thing is, the economy by no means flash today and National is still holding around 50%. Australia is still striding ahead of us and even if the MSM is not picking up this message, friends in Australia usually send back live reports loud and clear.

      How bad do things have to get in this country employment and economy-wise before National support erodes to the 40% mark? Not sure I want to be around to witness that, it will be unpleasant.

      • Kevin Welsh 5.1.1

        You want to try working in Napier loota, the Onekawa industrial suburb feels like a dead zone now. Hardly a week goes by without news of another closure and I have it on good authority that several high profile companies in the area have problems.

        12 Months is a very long time in politics and even that idiot Garner said on 3 News last night that he expected the gap to close considerably next year.

  6. brooklyn08 6

    I got the feeling after watching both TVNZ’s and TV3’s coverage of their polls, that they didn’t quite fit the narrative they had hoped for, which I think was either that the Carter saga had hurt or benefitted Goff and Labour. Alas, the movement (in Labour’s favour) was so slight, that neither conclusion could be confidently reached. But what’s with that Reid Research poll? A 14 point gap in the Colmar-Brunton compared to a 24-point gap with Reid research? The Colmar-Brunton seems more aligned with the Roy Morgan of late. Generally, Labour has been inching ahead in support, the Greens are doing well, and National, while still polling high, has been knocked from its lofty heights (gosh I recall 60% in one poll). I’d imagine it’s all downhill for National from now until the election – the rate of descent coupled with the timing of the election will determine who wins in 2011 (and of course Labour’s ability to capitalise on a gravity-afflicted National Party). Then there’s the Winston Peters factor, but Labour could just permanently borrow his superannuation policy meaning lefties need not vote NZ First, at least.

  7. gobsmacked 7

    There is no surprise in these polls. They tell us:

    1) Key is a popular Prime Minister. Especially with people who are not very interested in politics. He is seen as the celeb, the non-political PM (note: in image, not reality).

    Unfortunately for Key and National, the wider public may ignore politics between elections, but they do take an interest at election time. He will need something more than the Rugby World Cup.

    2) The Chris Carter story is of huge interest to the press gallery and paid pontificators, and of very little interest to the general public. Hence … no real change in the polls. Why would there be?

    3) On policy, Labour/Greens have been making steady inroads, over several months now. Almost every policy issue is a negative for National. They back down (e.g. mining) or they lose (e.g. Aussie wage gap).

    People like Key. They don’t like his government’s policies.

    The lesson is clear. The opposition focus must be:

    Policy, policy, policy. Gain percentage point by percentage point. Month by month. Delete all distractions, and if necessary, delete the fools who provide the distractions (Shane Jones, Chris Carter). Talk about the economy, wages, prices, jobs, health, ACC, etc, etc.

    It’s not thrill-a-minute, not for political junkies like us, not for the press gallery who want Big Bangs. But if you want entertainment, watch movies. This is reality.

    (although when you think about a NACT second term …. that’s a horror movie. A sequel. Let’s make sure it never gets made).

    • marsman 7.1

      Right on gobsmacked. And also…Let’s do our best to un-make the the NACT horror movie part 1.

    • Adrian 7.2

      Exactly, beautifully said.. p.s Business confidence down again today. The fall of idols is a slow process, but it is happening. We have to remind people, that actually we did have it bloody good under Labour, and will again.

      • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1

        Not if they maintain the capitalist/dictatorial paradigm. Of course, most of us haven’t had it “good” under that system ever – just less bad.

    • Armchair Critic 7.3

      Nicely said, gs. Hoping for a big bang implosion from National won’t work, Labour need to gradually build their support so they can win an election by May next year (just in case…).
      On the horror movie theme, There is a Friday the 13th next May.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Upper Hauraki to move to Alert Level 2
    Upper Hauraki will move to Alert Level 2 from 11:59pm tomorrow, 25 September, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. After positive cases were detected in the Upper Hauraki area on Sunday, extra Alert Level restrictions were put in place to immediately prevent any wider transmission of the virus.  “We’ve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Report into Aotearoa New Zealand’s export controls system released
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today welcomed the findings of an independent review into Aotearoa New Zealand’s export controls system, which regulates the export of goods to foreign militaries, police forces or paramilitaries. Produced by David Smol, a former Chief Executive of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • New District Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General David Parker has announced the appointment of Brett Crowley of Wellington as a District Court Judge.  He is currently the Wellington Public Defender and started his career as a staff solicitor working in a range of litigation including criminal defence work. He went to the bar in 1999 specialising ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Mental health stocktake shows strong progress
    The first report of the Government’s Implementation Unit has found strong progress has been made since the Mental Health and Addictions Package was announced in 2019. “The report notes most initiatives funded in the Budget 2019 package are on track to deliver what is expected by 2023/24,” Grant Robertson said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Working together to grow the West Coast
    A project that has been crucial in allowing businesses to continue during the tourism downturn is among a number of initiatives to receive a boost from the Government’s Jobs For Nature programme, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. Sustaining South Westland is an extension of an initiative set up last year ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Next steps to improve safety in wake of Whakaari White Island tragedy
    The Government is moving to improve safety in light of the Whakaari White Island tragedy and has released proposals to reinforce safety standards in registered adventure activities. The package of proposals includes: Strengthening requirements for how operators, landowners and the regulator manage natural hazard risks Improving how risks are monitored, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • New Zealand donates more COVID-19 vaccines to COVAX and the Pacific
    Foreign Affairs Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta and Associate Health Minister Aupito William Sio announced today that New Zealand is donating additional Pfizer vaccines to the Pacific and AstraZeneca vaccines to the COVAX Facility, to support equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. “New Zealand is donating 708,000 doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Speech to the Property Council of New Zealand
    Kia ora koutou katoa   Is it a pleasure to be able to speak with you today, and to be able to answer some questions you may have. I would like to acknowledge the organisers of this event, the Property Council. The theme of this year’s conference is City Shapers. Together ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Additional MIQ for Christchurch
    An additional hotel will be added to our network of managed isolation and quarantine facilities, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I have approved and Cabinet is in the final stages of signing off The Quality Hotel Elms in Christchurch as a new managed isolation facility,” Chris Hipkins said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • NZ COVID-19 response earns another major digital investment
    Minister for the Digital Economy and Communications Dr David Clark welcomes Amazon’s Web Services’ (AWS) decision to establish a Cloud Region on New Zealand shores, further boosting New Zealand’s growing digital sector, and providing a vote of confidence in the direction of New Zealand’s economic recovery. “Amazon is the second ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand invests in cutting edge cancer R&D
    Scaling up the manufacture of CAR T-cell cancer therapy for clinical trials Advancing New Zealand’s biomedical manufacturing capability Supporting future international scientific collaborations Transforming cancer care with targeted, affordable solutions Research, Science and Innovation Minister Hon Dr Megan Woods has announced that the fight against COVID-19 will not stop the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Expert group appointed to lead New Zealand’s future health system
    An outstanding group of people with extensive and wide-ranging governance and health experience have been appointed to lead the Māori Health Authority and Health New Zealand, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “This Government is building a truly national health system to provide consistent, high-quality health services right across the country. This ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding to help clean up contaminated sites
    The Government is supporting the clean-up of contaminated sites in Northland, Dunedin and Southland to reduce risk to people’s health and protect the environment. Environment Minister David Parker said the funding announced today, through the Contaminated Sites Remediation Fund, will help us turn previously hazardous sites into safe, usable public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Predator Free apprenticeships open up new job opportunities
    The expansion of a predator free apprenticeship programme is an opportunity for more people to kick-start a conservation career, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “The Predator Free Apprenticeship Programme is focused on increasing the number of skilled predator control operators in New Zealand through a two-year training programme. “The Trust ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Further NCEA support confirmed for Auckland students
    The number of Learning Recognition Credits for senior secondary school students will be increased for Auckland students, Education Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. This recognises the extended time these students will spend in Alert Levels 3 and 4. “It means students in Auckland will have a fair opportunity to attain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Long-term pathway next step to better mental wellbeing for New Zealanders
    The Government is taking a new approach to support people who experience mental distress, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “Kia Manawanui Aotearoa – Long-term pathway to mental wellbeing (Kia Manawanui) is the first 10-year plan of its kind that targets the cause of mental distress and also sets out how ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Keeping our Police safe to keep our communities safe
    The Government is committed to keeping our frontline police officers safe, so they in turn can keep New Zealanders safe – with one of the largest investments in frontline safety announced by Police Minister Poto Williams at the Police College today.   The $45 million investment includes $15.496 million in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Clean Vehicles Bill passes first checkpoint
    The Land Transport (Clean Vehicles) Amendment Bill will help New Zealand drive down transport emissions by cleaning up the light vehicle fleet, Transport Minister Michael Wood says. The Bill passed its first reading today and will establish the legislative framework for key parts of the Government’s Clean Car Package, including ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Funding boost supports ongoing Māori COVID-19 response
    The Government is responding to the need by whānau Māori and Māori Health providers to support their ongoing work responding to COVID-19 and to continue increasing rates of Māori vaccination, Associate Minister for Health (Māori Health), Peeni Henare and Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson announced today.   This increased ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Significant increase to COVID-19 penalties
    Penalties for breaches of COVID-19 orders are set to significantly increase from early November 2021 to better reflect the seriousness of any behaviour that threatens New Zealand’s response to the virus, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Throughout this Delta outbreak we’ve seen the overwhelming majority of people doing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill returns to Parliament
    The Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill has returned to Parliament for its second reading in an important step towards giving enforcement agencies greater power to protect New Zealanders from terrorist activity. “The Bill addresses longstanding gaps in our counter terrorism legislation that seek to protect New Zealanders and make us safer,” Justice ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Joint Statement: New Zealand and Australian Trade Ministers
    Hon Damien O'Connor MP, New Zealand Minister for Trade and Export Growth, and Hon Dan Tehan MP, Australian Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, met virtually on Monday 20 September to advance trans-Tasman cooperation under the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement (CER). CER is one of the most ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Prime Minister’s Post Cabinet Press Conference/COVID-19 Update opening statement
    ***Please check against delivery***   E te tī, e te tā, nau mai rā [To all, I bid you welcome]   As you will have seen earlier, today there are 22 new community cases to report; three of which are in Whakatiwai in the Hauraki area, and the remainder in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Major milestones for Māori COVID-19 vaccine rollout as new campaign launches
    Whānau Ora and Associate Health (Māori Health) Minister Peeni Henare acknowledges two major milestones in the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programme for Māori. “I am very pleased to announce more than 50 percent of eligible Māori have received their first dose and 25 per cent are now fully vaccinated,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government funding to fight infectious diseases
    $36 million for research into Covid-19 and other infectious diseases The investment will improve our readiness for future pandemics Research will focus on prevention, control, and management of infectious diseases The Government’s investing in a new Infectious Diseases Research Platform to boost Aotearoa New Zealand’s Covid-19 response and preparedness for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Quarantine-free travel with Australia to remain suspended for a further 8 weeks
    Suspension to be reviewed again mid to late November Decision brought forward to enable access from Australia to first tranche of around 3000 rooms in MIQ Air New Zealand working at pace to put on more flights from Australia from October    The suspension of quarantine-free travel (QFT) with Australia has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Extra support for Ethnic Communities to share vaccination information
    Extra support is being made available to Ethnic Communities to help them share COVID-19 vaccination information within their communities, Minister for Diversity, Inclusion and Ethnic Communities Priyanca Radhakrishnan said. “We know we need to get every eligible person in New Zealand vaccinated. A fund being launched today will allow for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • School holidays remain unchanged for Auckland region
    School holidays in Auckland will continue to be held at the same time as the rest of the country, starting from Saturday, 2 October, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I’ve carefully considered advice on the implications of shifting the dates and concluded that on balance, maintaining the status quo ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government continues crackdown on gangs and organised crime
    Operation Tauwhiro extended until March 2022 Since it was launched in February, Operation Tauwhiro has resulted in:   987 firearms seized $4.99 million in cash seized 865 people charged with a firearms-related offence Gangs and organised crime groups will continue to be relentlessly targeted with the extension of Police’s successful ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Body Positive 'HIV Treatments Update Seminar 2021'
    E ngā mana E ngā reo E ngā iwi Tēnā koutou katoa Ka huri ki ngā mana whenua o te rohe nei. Tēnā koutou. He mihi hoki ki a tatou kua tau mai nei I raro I te kaupapa o te rā. Nō reira tēnā koutou katoa Acknowledgements It’s a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Power bill changes bring fairness to charges
    A key recommendation of an independent panel to make electricity charges fairer across all households will be put in place, the Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods has announced. “Phasing out the regulations on ‘low-use’ electricity plans will create a fairer playing field for all New Zealanders and encourage a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ economy’s strong momentum will support rebound from Delta outbreak; COVID fund replenished
    The economy showed strong momentum in the period leading up to the recent Delta COVID-19 outbreak, which bodes well for a solid economic rebound, Grant Robertson said. GDP rose 2.8 percent in the June quarter, following on from a 1.4 percent increase in the previous March quarter. This was a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Projects create benefits into the future
    Making a well-known lake swimmable and helping to halt the decline of the endangered hoiho/yellow-eyed penguins are among a suite of new projects being supported by the Government’s Jobs for Nature programme across the southern South Island, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “It’s no secret that many of our most ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Opening statement for Whāriki Indigenous Small Business Roundtable
      Kei ngā tōpito e wha o te āo e rere ana te mihi maioha ki a koutou nō tawhiti, nō tata mai e tāpiri ana ki tēnei taumata kōrero mo te ao hokohoko arā mā ngā pākihi mo ngā iwi taketake Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa – Pai Mārire.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New members appointed to Kāpuia
    The Government is adding four additional members to Kāpuia, the Ministerial Advisory Group on the Government’s Response to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch mosques. “I’m looking forward to having Pamela MacNeill, Huia Bramley, Melani Anae and Katherine Dedo  join Kāpuia and contribute to this group’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Timeline confirmed for Emissions Reductions Plan
    Cabinet has agreed to begin consulting on the Emissions Reduction Plan in early October and require that the final plan be released by the end of May next year in line with the 2022 Budget, the Minister of Climate Change, James Shaw confirmed today. “Cabinet’s decision allows organisations and communities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pay parity pathway for early learning teachers confirmed
    Pay parity conditions and higher funding rates for education and care services will come into force on 1 January, 2022, Minister of Education Chris Hipkins confirmed today. The Government signalled this work in Budget 2021. “From 1 January, 2022, centres opting into the scheme will receive government funding and be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation Conference 2021
    Kia Ora tatau katoa.   Ka tuku mihi ki nga nēhi, He pou Hauora o Aotearoa, E ora ai tatou.   Whakatau mai  I runga i te kaupapa o te ra Te NZNO conference.   Tena koutou tena koutou Tena tatou katoa   Good morning, and thank you inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government investment in farmer-led catchment groups sweeps past 150 mark
    171 catchment groups have now been invested in by the Government 31 catchment groups in the Lower North Island are receiving new support More than 5,000 farmers are focussed on restoring freshwater within a generation through involvement in catchment groups  Government investment in on-the-ground efforts by farmers to improve land ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Fight to protect kauri on track
    The Government is pitching in to help vital work to protect nationally significant kauri forests in Auckland, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says. “Ensuring the survival of these iconic trees for future generations means doing everything we can to prevent the potential spread of kauri dieback disease,” Kiri Allan said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago