Another Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, February 21st, 2015 - 77 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , ,

Another Roy Morgan poll out late last night makes decent reading for Little, Labour and the left:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National falling to 49% (down 3% since January 5-18, 2015). Support for Prime Minister John Key’s Coalition partners has also fallen with the Maori Party 1.0% (down 0.5%), Act NZ 0% (down 1%) and United Future still on 0% (unchanged).

Support for the main opposition Labour Party is at 30% (up 4% – their highest level of support since July 2014) and also up for the Greens 12% (up 1%) while NZ First is 6% (unchanged). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1.5% (down 0.5%) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (unchanged).

Good to see support for the left inching up again (though I still find the current ratings for Act and UF a bit high for my liking). On top of the earlier 3 News poll (“Little making a splash”) its especially good news for Andrew Little.

Final note:

There are now 55% (down 12%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 31% (up 8%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

That’s a big shift.

77 comments on “Another Roy Morgan”

  1. Pete George 1

    While there’s some hope for a Labour recovery trend this poll was held on February 2-15.

    That covers John Key’s awful week last week but being up to last Sunday it doesn’t cover Andrew Little’s problems this week. Labour will hope they are largely forgotten by the next poll.

    • Paul 1.1

      What do you think of Crystal Palace’s chances against Arsenal this weekend?

      • kiwigunner 1.1.1

        They have little to no chance. 0-3

        • DoublePlusGood 1.1.1.1

          The problem with Arsenal is they always try to walk it in…

          • tricledrown 1.1.1.1.1

            Perenial bridesmaids the gunners.
            Chelsea supporters still racist!
            Uniteds Future in doubt as supporters desert enmasse.

            • rhinocrates 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Did you know that genetic analysis of giant squid carcasses worldwide has shown that they are all one species, Architeuthis dux, not three or more as previously assumed? Moreover, they are all virtually genetically identical and every one of them is called Kevin. This can be the case when a fast-breeding population enjoys a sudden resurgence after passing through a population bottleneck. It’s purely my own speculation, but the hunting of their main predator, the sperm whale has allowed their population to bloom.

              While the increase in numbers may seem good for fisheries, I would hardly recommend eating a giant squid. Their tissues are infused with ammonium ions to give buoyancy, which gives them a strongly unpleasant bleach-like flavour.

          • adriank 1.1.1.1.2

            What was Wenger thinking, bringing on Walcott that early?

      • Tracey 1.1.2

        1-7

      • Who cares as long as Spurs win. the pride of the Yidish fans. and I come from Crystal Palace .

    • Skinny 1.2

      Let’s see how National poll after John Key leaves later this term to set up an investment company with a couple of his American business friends.

      Madoff Fuld Key Investments

      These polls will continue to show National declining.

    • tc 1.3

      Can QPR stay up petey and what about lallanas return to st marys with liverpool….thoughts

  2. A quick run through the electoral calculator gives the right bloc 63 seats, the rest 59 in a 122 seat parliament. A 2% swing from National to Labour would see a hung parliament.

    • Paul 2.1

      3 years till an election.

    • Tracey 2.2

      Heading in the right direction is plummeting but National only dipping slightly… seems odd on the face of it.

      • upnorth 2.2.1

        I don’t think it’s that odd – People are waking up to the fact that the current government is destroying the country, but are still uncertain about what Andrew can bring to the table. He’s still a new and relatively unknown quantity.

        If Andrew can reset from his tough week and continue to share his vision for a better NZ, I think the polls will begin to avalanche his way.

    • fisiani 2.3

      Wishful thinking indeed TRP. Do you not realise that this poll shows a 2% swing TO National since the election in September? Given the economic good times ahead you seem a trifle optimistic about the chances of the united (hard to type without laughing) Left. Every tiny flicker of movement in the RM poll is greeted as the light at the end of a long tunnel. It’s the light of an approaching train.

      • Skinny 2.3.1

        Lol I had to laugh at the light of a train.

      • dv 2.3.2

        >>Given the economic good times ahead

        Oh looky debt

        NZ$ 97,991,353,131

        • fisiani 2.3.2.1

          Is that the current debt of NZ? I never knew it was that low. That’s the price of virtually full employment and maintaining benefits and pensions for 9 years. Thank goodness Bill English is at the helm and we are not staring down the never ending deficits inherited in 2008. You’ll be pleased when we get back into surplus I take it. Earthquakes have caused billions of dollars, already 16 billion shelled out. All in all provided no more major earthquakes really good economic times ahead.

          • dv 2.3.2.1.1

            Yippee debt onward and upward.

            Shame the debt was 10 billion when Nats got in.
            You missed

            Hey i missed all the surpluses the nats have generated.

            Fancy someone who seems to think they know about economy in nZ didn’t know about the debt level.

          • Sacha 2.3.2.1.2

            “we are not staring down the never ending deficits inherited in 2008”

            No, now it’s 3 or 4 times the size Treasury projected. I’m glad English didn’t cut services as brutally as he could have, but let’s not dress this up as thrifty or smart long-term management. We have to pay back all that debt eventually, hopefully without swapping it for foreign ownership of more of our productive assets. Seems about the only idea these ambishus wideboys have.

        • nadis 2.3.2.2

          dv – is that net debt or gross debt? Is it core debt or something wider than that? does it include SOE debt? Please explain to us – otherwise t looks like you are throwing numbers around you dont understand.

      • swordfish 2.3.3

        “Do you not realise that this poll shows a 2% swing TO National since the election in September ?”

        Ahhhhh, Fisi, you’re a colourful old character and no mistake. Your positive spin for the Nats is always something to behold.

        Righty-oh, if you insist on comparisons with the last election then let’s look at what you’ve conveniently “forgotten” to mention…….

        Party / Bloc….2014 ElectionLatest Roy MorganDiff

        Labour……………….25…………………30………………..+ 5
        Green…………………11…………………12………………..+ 1
        Lab+Green…………..36………………….42……………….+ 6
        Left Bloc……………..37………………….42……………….+ 5

        • fisiani 2.3.4.1

          I am constantly amazed at how a single green shoot is seen here as a harbinger of a bumper crop. National polling 49% in February is higher than it was in 2008, 2011 and 2014. The only way to change this polling pattern is for Labour and the Greens to go even further to the Left and stop trying to be National lite. Otherwise Labour and the Greens will combine at 40-45% which whilst close is not a victory. Many Labour voters changing their voting patterns in 2008 and 2011 and 2014 moved to voting National. Tell them that you will tax them more., make it harder to employ people and make them pay more for petrol and electricity. Abolish mining and dairy farming. They will flock to the Greens/Labour nirvana.

          • Paul 2.3.4.1.1

            Do you have anything better to do than try to inflame discussions?

          • The Pink Postman 2.3.4.1.2

            I quite agree .My Labour

          • mac1 2.3.4.1.3

            Fisiani, just so you can understand how green shoots harbinge a bumper crop (great neologism eh?), cast your memory back to 2002. National 22%. Go forward three years. National? 39%

            Aided of course by a lot of out and out racism and all sorts of “us” versus “them” rhetoric from Brash, but still the figures show that your scorn for a party’s resurgence is really hope that it won’t happen again, and again……………… as it surely will.

          • swordfish 2.3.4.1.4

            “I am constantly amazed at how a single green shoot is seen here as a harbinger of a bumper crop.”

            Are we reading the same blog ? Authors at The Standard have usually heavily qualified their expressions of hope with a good deal of caution.

            Speaking for myself, I won’t be getting too excited until I see Labour consistently above 30%, the Left Bloc consistently above 44% and the Opposition Bloc consistently above 48%.

            ‘National polling 49% in February is higher than it was in 2008, 2011 and 2014.”

            I suspect you’re talking here about the election result in those years. More useful to compare with Poll results 5 months after the respective elections (given that we’re currently 5 months on from the last one) and thereafter poll results for February in following years.

            Polls 5 months after 2008 Election
            Nat 56%, 51%, 57%, 50%, 55%

            Feb 2010
            Nat 56%, 52%, 56%, 54%, 54%

            Feb 2011
            Nat 53%, 51%, 55%, 49%, 53%

            Polls 5 months after 2011 Election
            Nat 50%, 50%, 48%, 47%

            Feb 2013
            Nat 44%, 49%, 45%, 51%, 48%, 44%

            Feb 2014
            Nat 47%, 49%, 48%, 51%, 49%

            So the Nats are polling considerably worse than during their first term and roughly similar to second term (but bear in mind that the minor parties of the Right were polling higher in 2012, 2013 and 2014 than now. So, the Right Bloc as a whole is down).

            “Many Labour voters changing their voting patterns in 2008 and 2011 and 2014 moved to voting National.”

            Actually, the swing from Left to Right and, more specifically, from Labour to National happened overwhelmingly in 2008. Since then, movement across the Left/Right, Oppo/Govt divide has been minimal.

          • dv 2.3.4.1.5

            >>I am constantly amazed at how a single green shoot

            Here is a ‘green shoot the Nats have grown.

            NZ debt from 10bill in 2008 to 100b in 2014
            Well done Nats

  3. Chooky 3

    Winston needs to stand in Northland and up NZF’s profile

    ….Winston is the natural MP for Northland ….with loads more experience and charisma than the neonate Labour candidate….Labour should stand aside…but they wont

    Go Winston!

    • even if labour don’t stand aside..(which is expected..)

      ..it still makes sense for peters to run..

      ..the publicity/profile-building for him/nz first will be invaluable..

      ..and him running wd make it too close to call..

      ..’cos the national vote is going to collapse..

      ..peters cd scoop from left/right/normally non-voters..and win..

      ..peters cd split the vote on the right enough..

      ..for the labour candidate to come thru..

      ..or the national candidate cd still hang on..

      ..if peters doesn’t stand..national will win..

      ..so..there is every reason for him to run..

      ..and it will transform what wd be a sleepwalk to victory for national..

      ..to a race too close to call..

      ..and that wd be exciting..good political-theatre..

      • Skinny 3.1.1

        Regardless of who stands National just wins. The Tories faithfully turn out to vote and since it is a popular farmer standing they will increase the candidate vote from what Sabin got. I would put money on Peters on standing unless he thinks he can expose why his arch enemy Sabin resigned.

        • veutoviper 3.1.1.1

          National have not yet selected their final candidate and will not do so until Feb 28, so there is still some water to go under the bridge …..

          http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/national-selects-northland-candidates-2015021512

          • Skinny 3.1.1.1.1

            Regardless of what Gower and tv3 news says the local party farmer wins, they are not going to select a woman from Auckland or a another cop after Sabin’s antic’s. The Nat’s will play it safe by choosing a cow cocky.

          • Tracey 3.1.1.1.2

            Wouldn’t surprise me if they know exactly who they will “select” and have already begun a strategy based on that person but are holding back the announcement to give opponents less time to direct anything towards a specific person.

            • BLiP 3.1.1.1.2.1

              The permutations possible when considering the depths to which the John Key Dirty Politics Machine will dredge are vast. I wouldn’t put it past the National Ltd™ Cult of John Key’s henchmen to have stitched up a deal with Winston. The Dirty Politics Machine would then just have to encourage Labour and the Greens to stand aside in order to bring NZ First into the Cult’s coalition without having to spend a cent. Winston, who’s getting on a bit, could, just about, name his price while the collective cheering from his supporters emanates from rest homes across the country.

              • Pete George

                Any progress on the publication of your ‘list of lies’ BLiP?

                If it gets published (and when it’s repeated online) will you make a clear disclosure of your political bias?

                • BLiP

                  There are between 300 and 500 dimples on a golfball, 336 being the most common number. But not just any number will do. Golf balls are usually covered with dimples in a highly symmetrical way, and for many values of N, it is impossible to cover the golf ball uniformly without gaps. Dimples first appeared on golf balls more than 100 years ago when golfers discovered that balls which had been scratched or roughed up traveled farther than smooth balls. “Dimples are what gives a golf ball lift. They create two layers of air going around the ball. The top layer is going faster than the bottom layer which creates turbulence. This reduces the drag and allows the ball to travel farther than a smooth ball.

                • Paul

                  Please get a better hobby.

            • Skinny 3.1.1.1.2.2

              They do its the local farmer who holds a national committee position. Stick to
              Cricket result predictions you might fair better lol.

    • BLiP 3.2

      Oh, I dunno. There are so many pluses for Labour in running for Northland I kinda feel compelled to keep my trap shut about things until after the by-election. It seems to me that even if Ritchie McCaw himself were to stand for NZ First and if the National Ltd™ Cult of John Key were to put up a half-boiled turnip, the brassica would still romp home in Northland.

      Might as well give Willow-Jean and her local crew another work out in preparation for a more likely opportunity further down the road. No need either to let the National Ltd™ Cult of John Key and NZ First have all the photo-ops carefully managed to detract from the really important things going on. I have no doubt we will, sooner or later, see Willow-Jean in Parliament where, given the current assortment of blokey-bozos Labour has fronting for it, she will stand out. Also, I think she can do great things for Northland standing on a platform which, perhaps, focuses on a quite narrow range of issues that really matter to that constituency. She could, for example, bring attention to the need for our children to live in homes free of violence and contrast that with the sort of culture the National Ltd™ Cult of John Key is fostering with its warmongering on behalf the boys down at The Club. She might also talk about how women need, once again, to demand that their complaints to police are (a) believed and acted on, and, (b) that there is a government in place which will ensure that, rather than deny them justice due to institutional misogyny which results in violent offenders casually strolling out the country or, as ridiculous as it sounds, holding powerful positions in the law and order arena. You know, little things like that

      Good luck to her, I say.

  4. ianmac 4

    Long may the trend continue!

  5. lurgee 5

    Labour’s Long March to victory is turning out to be a very, very long march indeed.

    • Colonial Rawshark 5.1

      lovely allusion

      eventually kick all the NATs off to Stewart Island?

      • Chooky 5.1.1

        not to Stewart Island!….horrors!…..that is a lovely unspoiled place…the Stewart Islanders would certainly NOT appreciate that

        • swordfish 5.1.1.1

          I dunno. Stewart Island does tend a little toward the Right.

          2014 Nats received 85 votes – a little over half the vote – at the Halfmoon Bay booth, combined Lab+Green+NZ First = 65 votes.

          • Colonial Rawshark 5.1.1.1.1

            That sounds about right.

            • swordfish 5.1.1.1.1.1

              Greens came 2nd (as they did in 2011) and by a sizeable margin – receiving slightly more than Labour+NZF combined. Weak place for Labour.

  6. ankerawshark 6

    I know it is 3 years till an election, but this is encouraging.

    I know people have felt very upset by what happened with Labour and the Greens last week as I have two, but the silver liniing is two msm journalists are spinning Little in a good light over it. This is important as NZders read that stuff and form an opinion of the opposition that way.

    I think the pick up in Labour’s fortunes are because the msm are liking Little and saying good things about him. I wish we weren’t so dependent on what they write about a Labour leader, but IMHO we are.

    • bearded git 6.1

      Worth remembering that the Greens are likely to push Labour to the left in the event they win power as a coalition in 2017.

  7. alwyn 7

    Out of idle curiosity I had a look at how the parties were doing on the corresponding dates in 2012, after the 2011 election. In the first two weeks of February we had:
    National were on 45.5%, Labour were on 31.0%, Greens on 11.5% and New Zealand First on 6%.
    Thus Labour under Shearer were doing better then they are now under Little and National were doing worse than they are today.
    Perhaps Labour should have kept Shearer in the top job.

    • swordfish 7.1

      Except, of course, Feb 2012 was just 3 months after the 2011 Election, we’re currently 5 months on from Sep 2014. See my comment above for more useful comparative stats.

      Having said that, I’m not getting too excited. Very early days.

      • alwyn 7.1.1

        Yes I thought about that but decided the time of year, just after the start of Parliament and the long summer break, was probably more relevant than figures at different dates when the year was well underway in one set.
        However the figures from Roy Morgan after 5 months were National 47%, Labour 28.5, Greens 15% and NZF 5%. That gives National and Labour up about the same amount and Greens well down.
        I’m not sure what comparison you are referring to is. I don’t think election vs poll, or this poll vs other organisation’s polls are really meaningful as all the polling organisations seem to display consistent deviations from the final result and from each other.
        I tend to favour comparisons between polls by one organisation and as Roy Morgan are the only people who poll regularly I look at those.
        As you say though it is a long, long time.

  8. ankerawshark 8

    Yes the Greens pushing Labour left after the election is GOOD! Also I think Little has signalled he wants to get into power first, then bring in things like a CGT later. Unfortunately, this is likely the most effective strategy

    • Anne 8.1

      Only come in on this conversation, so don’t know what else has been said but you’re right ankerawshark… Labour has to get into power first before it can embark upon more progressive policy. It shouldn’t be that way, but the voters are easily scared by right-wing rhetoric as we’ve seen time and time again. Many of us have been fighting the Labour hierarchy over this unfortunate fact for years. I suspect Andrew Little was there fighting with us but it fell on deaf ears.

      • Anne 8.1.1

        On the other hand, they were sometimes so overly timid and obsessed with political correctness they wouldn’t stand up for anything much at all.

    • alwyn 8.2

      You are surely not suggesting that Andrew Little would lie to us are you?
      You seem to be suggesting that he would campaign on one set of policies and then, if he managed to get into power change and do things he had never told the public about.
      He probably will of course. He probably won’t be bothered by such patently dishonest tactics. After all someone who claims to be on the side of honest treatment of workers by employers and then stiffs an employee over a miserable $950 wouldn’t worry to much over stiffing the whole country.

      • ankerawshark 8.2.1

        No Alwyn, Andrew Little lying is your interpretation of what I said.

        Andrew has been very clear that he wouldn’t campaign on a CGT, but would look at it second term.

        That’s transparency, unlike your lot

  9. Michael 9

    I think that’s actually quite impressive — the polls are shifting just because of a new leader and changing rhetoric. No concrete policy has even really been talked about yet. I have good hopes for a Left government in 2017.

    • Sacha 9.1

      People do not vote for policy, but on confidence. Early days but an improving trend.

      • tc 9.1.1

        Yup, one party had no policy but a smiley front an adoring msm and kept its muppets locked up except for blinglish and that rogue jc who they extinguished.

        The other party had way too many scary taxing policies and a leader known to not have his parties full support after taking the role from the previous inept mumbling newbie.

        Its labours to lose again in 2017 if little doesnt sort the house out.

  10. Upnorth 10

    I am amazed that Labour is not running in Northland – this means they dont care and dont care about their Maori seats after winning 6.

    Is this because they are broke or about to break their real chance to say we are with you.

    If Labour do not stand National will say quite clearly and correctly – “Labour dont care about you and all their election talk is false”

    I read somewhere Labour was going to pull out – I could be wrong

  11. Rob 11

    Yes you will be wrong

  12. Sable 12

    If you are naive enough to view Labour as a left leaning party….

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