Armstrong column: Nats and polling

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, June 1st, 2010 - 35 comments
Categories: john key, Politics, polls, uncategorized - Tags:

According to John Armstrong in today’s NZ Herald:

Perhaps the only surprise in National shedding a hefty five percentage points in the latest opinion poll is that the drop in support for the governing party was not even greater. National’s slide in the One News-Colmar Brunton poll from 54 per cent support in mid-April to 49 per cent follows a period when the Government has been paddling in deep and dangerous political waters where the currents of public opinion run particularly strong. Moreover, it has often done so without ensuring it has the means to extricate itself should it get into difficulties.

The Roy Morgan poll, which surveys voter preferences more frequently, had National slipping to around 49 per cent a couple of months ago. Moreover, support has since remained around that level….

The message National should take from the poll is that it needs to lift its game in terms of political management, rather than continue its relaxed, sometimes lackadaisical approach. That did not matter so much when it was surfing the poll wave. It does if the polls are now on the turn. The lesson for Labour is that it is still having huge trouble reconnecting with voters. The One News poll is good news for Labour in that National has fallen below a crucial psychological barrier of 50 per cent support.

The timing of the election next year will remain up in the air for some time, but the strategists for National must be thinking of the advantages of a campaign before the world cup. So the push to up the game (of both these main contendors)  is about increase in intensity.

35 comments on “Armstrong column: Nats and polling ”

  1. ghostwhowalksnz 1

    I thought the Nats would go very early, like THIS October -when the tax cuts begin. I think the polling might now scuttle that. The advantage of the RWC date is pushing Labour off the stage for the pre election jousting. All ready National is cutting down on parliament sitting days, expect next year to be a rarity

  2. Adrian 2

    Too risky to go after the RWC, even if the misconception that losses hurt governments is put to one side, an early loss to say SA would make the populace slightly grumpier than normal. I think it’s going to be in May after the next budget and just before councils set their rates.

    • Bunji 2.1

      Yes, before all the Aucklanders realise just how much this SuperCity is going to cost them…

    • felix 2.2

      “… even if the misconception that losses hurt governments is put to one side …”

      Very well, please continue:

      “… an early loss to say SA would make the populace slightly grumpier than normal.”

      Ok then.

      • Adrian 2.2.1

        A few years ago I saw a (can’t remember where ) a study that refuted the link, it pointed out that the around the same time that the perceived ‘ test loss/ election loss ‘ scenarios occured a lot of other issues were happening and it was pretty much a very minor part of the eventual outcome, hence my mention of slightly grumpier.

        • gobsmacked 2.2.1.1

          A bit different in 2011, because it’s not just about the All Blacks losing, it’s the success (or not) of staging the Rugby World Cup in NZ. It will dominate the news.

          I reckon there’s a few bad headlines (e.g. transport foul-ups) that a government would rather avoid. “Prime Minister booed at Party Central” – oops.

        • felix 2.2.1.2

          Don’t you reckon that “slightly grumpier” populace is the entire effect though?

          There needn’t be rioting in the streets or anything, just slightly grumpy would do it I’d have thought.

        • Irascible 2.2.1.3

          The research was done by Massey University I think. The findings were backed up with demonstrations that there was no causal link between success or failure on the sports field in any of the countries examined.
          The link between sports success / failure has been and always will be an urban myth perpetuated by lazy journalism.

    • Gooner 2.3

      Rates in the new Auckland Council are fixed on current rating amounts set by local councils until 2013. There are no rating increases next year, or the year after, that ratepayers do not already know about.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 2.3.1

        That is not the case, the rates are NOT fixed. Its the rating ‘system’ that is carried forward ( some Councils use different methods) and a new region wide system will be indroduced.
        the ATA merely says a ‘cap’ on rates is blah blah

        Translation since its after the election the rates WILL rise next year under the AC

      • Adrian 2.3.2

        So how are the councils going to recover the unaccounted for 1.75% this year and 2.5% next of GST and the loss of depreciation on buildings as well as currently subsidising jobs in departments that have had serious downturns in income due to less RMA and permit activity. Watch rates for all councils go up by 7-9% minimum. Try explaining that away in an election year as there won’t be a single councilor in the country not blaming it on the Nats.

  3. I dreamed a dream 3

    Because of the steady erosion of the Nats’ support, I am quite sure the Nats are panicking and furiously revising their plans and will now call the Election as early as possible, before the support goes too far south. Possibly somewhere Oct 2010 thru May 2011.

  4. gobsmacked 4

    This was John Armstrong on the Saturday following the Budget:

    “Although highly unscientific, a TV One-Close Up poll on Thursday night provided a thumping endorsement of National’s tax package and other measures unveiled that afternoon.

    That result was replicated in a similarly unscientific Herald online poll yesterday with those considering the Budget a winner running at nearly three to one.”

    John, if they’re “unscientific”, why do you bother with them? Especially since you claim not to be surprised a few days later, when actual post-Budget public opinion is measured.

    Shouldn’t the Saturday column have said: “Ignore the self-selected online gimmicks. They are meaningless. I, as an esteemed and experienced commentator, confidently expect National to lose support in the first real opinion poll, taken after the Budget.”

    Unless, of course, you didn’t.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    The country doesn’t like being incovenienced with early elections for no reason – it’s an automatic 5% hit in the polls if you do.

    • Lanthanide 5.1

      Yeah, I really don’t think there’s any reason for National to go to the polls early. The timing is going to be tricky because of the world cup, and I’m picking they’d go before it, but having an election this year? No way.

      Also remember their task force looking at privatising KB is scheduled to last 8 months, clearly having an election before then would put their fore-gone conclusion at risk, and they can’t campaign on “our taskforce says to sell Kiwibank” if their taskforce hasn’t concluded yet.

      On this note, remember that Labour called an earlier-than-usual election in 2002, how did that fare for them? I wasn’t able to vote because of their choice of date, if it’d been at the normal time I’d have been 18 and they would’ve got my vote.

      • gingercrush 5.1.1

        Stellar I would have thought. I know people think Labour got punished. They might have but I don’t think the 2002 election was a brilliant one for Labour. The campaign was ordinary and Clark had the corngate scandal but English was too incompetent that the minor parties were always going to shine because many middle and right wing voters that normally would have voted National went elsewhere. Yes the polls had Labour above 50%. But how realistic was that ever. With every election the margins tightened. We saw that in 2008. The polls tightened. Probably not as much as the left expected but it still tightened. The same happened in 2002. Labour’s vote fell from an artificial high but National’s vote absolutely collapsed and the likes of NZ First, Act, the Greens and United Future were the beneficiaries.

        Personally I find the notion that Labour going early and voters punishing them is incorrect. National going early isn’t exactly an option. The gap between the left and right is too small. They don’t have obvious coalition problems at this stage. National can technically lose a coalition partner and still govern. Therefore, voters would just see that as opportunistic and it’d play into Labour’s hand. That’s the difference between 2002 and 2011.

        • Craig Glen Eden 5.1.1.1

          I am often critical of your postings GC but credit where credits due, I think you make some sound and considered points with this one. IMHO that is.

          • Lanthanide 5.1.1.1.1

            He’s started posting a lot more coherantly and less knee-jerk recently, which is good to see.

    • Bright Red 5.2

      I can see a late july/august election sold on ‘let’s get this out of the way before the world cup’ but can’t see may or june where the campaign would overlap with all the work ministers have to put into the budget (unless they go early on the budget too, which isn’t easy)

      • Zorr 5.2.1

        What work on the Budget? I thought this group just chucked in tax cuts to themselves and mates, then hit the bars to do some deep beer diving for reasons the NZ electorate might swallow to accept them.

  6. The Voice of Reason 6

    May/June next year, guys. Well before the RWC, but using that as a reason (the country’s resources will be tied up providing for the RWC, so let’s get the election out of the way).

    I had a good look through the Roy Morgan data last night and two things are clear; National are drifting down into the forties and Labour are solidly in the early thirties. Now we know what the Nat’s are doing in Government and we have a fair indication of what they will campaign on, but we do not know actually what Labour are going to put to the electorate. Less GST? Capital Gains Tax? Who knows, at this point?

    If Labour are holding steady without making any promises then they are doing bloody well. Imagine how things will look when Labour actually start putting out their election policies and voters have a clear alternative to consider. I think Goff is playing a terrific hand, just by shutting up and letting the Nats, ACT and the Maori Party talk their way onto the opposition benches.

    New Roy Morgan in a couple of days, BTW. Should be interesting reading.

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      “Less GST? Capital Gains Tax? Who knows, at this point?”
      GST off fruit and vegetables, capping public service salaries to the same level as the PM’s, raising minimum wage to $15.

      “I think Goff is playing a terrific hand, just by shutting up and letting the Nats, ACT and the Maori Party talk their way onto the opposition benches.”
      I agree, but looking at any comment thread on stuff, everyone’s saying that Labour has no ideas and aren’t debating policy etc. Obviously these people don’t understand the political cycle, but that doesn’t stop them having opinions. Hopefully (and logically) all of that will melt away once Labour start putting out their policies.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 6.2

      What are the Nats going to campaign on? Thats a good question, last time it was tax cuts and anti-PC stuff. This time I assume they will need to convince the electorate that the hair-shirt approach, making the tough decisions that Labour can’t, we need three more years to finish the job we started etc… is actually working.

      But what if GDP growth is still sluggish, unemployment high and wages continue to stagnate? You can hardly say we need more of the same. And somehow I don’t think more privatisation, more cuts to services and tough on crime stuff are election winners in economically challenged times.

  7. Sanctuary 7

    It is also worthwhile to remember that outside the core 4% the Green vote doesn’t actually vote. If they are polling 9%, expect them to get 6%. The Greens ned to be polling around 7% just to be reasonably sure they’ll make the threshold. For the left, the Greens will have to be polling over 10% to have a chance of defeating National.

    Everyone is writing off ACT, but Hide is a good campainger and ACT has the advantage that can concentrate all their resources on one electorate. Why the Greens have not followed this survival strategy is beyond me. But even if Hide hangs on in Epsom, he’ll only take one other person back to parliament with him. Fingers crossed that if there has to be two ACT MP’s after the next election they are Hide and Roy.

    Winston won’t come back.

    The other player might be this rumoured “rural party.” It is probably just an attempt to heavy National over the ETS, but Lachlan McKenzie is a hard out ACToid and climate change denier, so is possibly stupid enough to actually try. 4% off the top of National? YES PLEASE!!

    • Zorr 7.1

      Sanctuary, that requires ACT to survive the next election. So far it is 3 (?) attempts at a party coup?

  8. gobsmacked 8

    Re- Farmers’ Party: it’s worth noting that in every term under MMP (and even before) there has been at least one case of an MP quitting a party, or a new party being formed (Copeland, Field, Turia, Alliance post-99, NZ First post-96, Alamein Kopu, etc). Hone Harawira is probably the best bet to do it this term.

    There’s a gap in the market for a self-styled People’s Party (which will talk Outsider but act Right), cashing in on general populist issues, tapping into frustration with “politicians”, as Winston did in the ’90’s.

    But without a sitting MP, or a deal in a major party electorate, it’s a non-starter really.

    • gingercrush 8.1

      It also requires someone with personality. The sole exception in this area outside Election 2002 has been Dunne. But then he does represent a very rich electorate and National did the deal in 1996 to ensure Dunne won his seat.

      Very few in National have much personality and I can’t think of a single National MP holding a rural/provincial seat with a personality. Who from a rural/farming background has the charisma/personality to do something? I can’t think of any. In fact I’m struggling to think of a right-wing identity to form a party around full stop.

      • Daveski 8.1.1

        Phil Goff?

      • Lanthanide 8.1.2

        Try not to limit yourself to the political space only.

        Could there be an economist, an entertainer, a businessman lurking around somewhere that could parachute in to start up a new party?

        What about Michael Lhaws, he could round up the redneck gang will still giving support to National, which in turn could make National more likeable by swing voters/those in the centre.

  9. ghostwhowalksnz 9

    Is it me or two days after announcing SOME results of the poll TV1 still doesnt have all the numbers released. ie numbers for NZ First , United Future , Progressive

    The numbers released so far only account for 94.8%

  10. ianmac 10

    Thanks Snoozer. Have bookmarked the link.

  11. Jellytussle 11

    Lol…I like the idea of a Lucy Lawless left party!

  12. Jenny 12

    Though I have no idea on the likely hood of his succeeding, and it hasn’t gained any legs in the media, Winston Peters is currently running an anti-Maori Party campaign in his effort to perform another Lazerus like return to parliament.

    It is all classic Winston Peters stuff.

    Though we have seen it all before, it just happens, that this time the Maori Party is to be Winston’s scapegoat du jour.

    As the elections come closer, Peters will probably try and work the Tuhoe terror trials into the mix as well.

    Peters has built his political career on pandering to the prejudices and fears of the angry red neck white vote. No matter what the subject matter of Winston’s latest press releases are supposed to be about, they all end up whaling on about the “Treaty Grievance Industry” and “Maori Separatists” and “The Maori Party” though he doesn’t miss a good opportunity to throw in some racist demagoguery about Asians as well.

    Peters on the Maori Party:

    “This limb of this government’s support base hasn’t many months to go before it is brought home to them the cost of voter betrayal. Meanwhile another limb, the yellow one, is declaring its’ hand in a similar desperate struggle for survival. For both, of course, it will be too late.”

    Obviously, if Peters does return to parliament and is in a position to be part of a coalition government, his single demand (apart from the baubles of office) will be on the condition that the Maori Party be excluded.

    This would certainly complicate matters, when it comes time to find coalition partners.

    Frankly the possible various perturbations confound me, and It’s all highly theoretical depending on whether Peters has any real chance of returning to parliament or not. Maybe the next few polls will give us some idea.

    However in my opinion a National New Zealand First coalition government would be a disastrous combination, especially in a time of recession, free market defenders and diversionary scapegoaters, neither with any rational answer to the capitalist economic crisis.

    Would a New Zealand First, Labour coalition be more of a goer?

    And where would the Maori Party and the Greens fit into all this?

    • Lanthanide 12.1

      Winston being vehemently anti MP could potentially result in a hung parliament if either side needed both NZF and MP’s votes to secure a coalition.

      Pretty unlikely, but would be a remarkably difficult situation to deal with.

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    Don’t you sometimes wish they’d just tell the truth? No matter how abhorrent or ugly, just straight up tell us the truth?C’mon guys, what you’re doing is bad enough anyway, pretending you’re not is only adding insult to injury.Instead of all this bollocks about the Smokefree changes being to do ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The longest of weeks
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday Under New Management Week in review, quiz style1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Suggested sessions of EGU24 to submit abstracts to
    Like earlier this year, members from our team will be involved with next year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). The conference will take place on premise in Vienna as well as online from April 14 to 19, 2024. The session catalog has been available since November 1 ...
    5 days ago
  • Under New Management
    1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. Under New Management 2. Which of these best describes the 100 days of action announced this week by the new government?a. Petulantb. Simplistic and wrongheaded c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • While we wait patiently, our new Minister of Education is up and going with a 100-day action plan
    Sorry to say, the government’s official website is still out of action. When Point of Order paid its daily visit, the message was the same as it has been for the past week: Site under maintenance Beehive.govt.nz is currently under maintenance. We will be back shortly. Thank you for your ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Hysterical bullshit
    Radio NZ reports: Te Pāti Māori’s co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer has accused the new government of “deliberate .. systemic genocide” over its policies to roll back the smokefree policy and the Māori Health Authority. The left love hysterical language. If you oppose racial quotas in laws, you are a racist. And now if you sack ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2023
    Open access notables From this week's government/NGO section, longitudinal data is gold and Leisorowitz, Maibachi et al. continue to mine ore from the US public with Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2023: Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population, the authors describe how registered ...
    5 days ago
  • ELE LUDEMANN: It wasn’t just $55 million
    Ele Ludemann writes –  Winston Peters reckons media outlets were bribed by the $55 million Public Interest Journalism Fund. He is not the first to make such an accusation. Last year, the Platform outlined conditions media signed up to in return for funds from the PJIF: . . . ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 1-December-2023
    Wow, it’s December already, and it’s a Friday. So here are few things that caught our attention recently. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt covered the new government’s coalition agreements and what they mean for transport. On Tuesday Matt looked at AT’s plans for fare increases ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    5 days ago
  • Shane MacGowan Is Gone.
    Late 1996, The Dogs Bollix, Tamaki Makaurau.I’m at the front of the bar yelling my order to the bartender, jostling with other thirsty punters on a Friday night, keen to piss their wages up against a wall letting loose. The black stuff, long luscious pints of creamy goodness. Back down ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Dec 1
    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and other National, ACT and NZ First MPs applaud the signing of the coalition agreements, which included the reversal of anti-smoking measures while accelerating tax cuts for landlords. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2023 More Reading: November (+ Writing Update)
    Completed reads for November: A Modern Utopia, by H.G. Wells The Vampire (poem), by Heinrich August Ossenfelder The Corpus Hermeticum The Corpus Hermeticum is Mead’s translation. Now, this is indeed a very quiet month for reading. But there is a reason for that… You see, ...
    6 days ago
  • Forward to 2017
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    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Finally
    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    6 days ago
  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    6 days ago
  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    7 days ago
  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago
  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • National’s giveaway politics
    We already know that national plans to boost smoking rates to collect more tobacco tax so they can give huge tax-cuts to mega-landlords. But this morning that policy got even more obscene - because it turns out that the tax cut is retrospective: Residential landlords will be able to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: Who’s driving the right-wing bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In 2023, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago
  • GRAHAM ADAMS:  Media knives flashing for Luxon’s government
    The fear and loathing among legacy journalists is astonishing Graham Adams writes – No one is going to die wondering how some of the nation’s most influential journalists personally view the new National-led government. It has become abundantly clear within a few days of the coalition agreements ...
    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    1 week ago
  • Top 10 news links for Wednesday, Nov 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere for Wednesday November 29, including:The early return of interest deductibility for landlords could see rebates paid on previous taxes and the cost increase to $3 billion from National’s initial estimate of $2.1 billion, CTU Economist Craig Renney estimated here last ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Smokefree Fallout and a High Profile Resignation.
    The day after being sworn in the new cabinet met yesterday, to enjoy their honeymoon phase. You remember, that period after a new government takes power where the country, and the media, are optimistic about them, because they haven’t had a chance to stuff anything about yet.Sadly the nuptials complete ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • As Cabinet revs up, building plans go on hold
    Wellington Council hoardings proclaim its preparations for population growth, but around the country councils are putting things on hold in the absence of clear funding pathways for infrastructure, and despite exploding migrant numbers. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Cabinet meets in earnest today to consider the new Government’s 100-day ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • National takes over infrastructure
    Though New Zealand First may have had ambitions to run the infrastructure portfolios, National would seem to have ended up firmly in control of them.  POLITIK has obtained a private memo to members of Infrastructure NZ yesterday, which shows that the peak organisation for infrastructure sees  National MPs Chris ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • At a glance – Evidence for global warming
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    1 week ago
  • Who’s Driving The Right-Wing Bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In ...
    1 week ago

  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

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