Written By:
mickysavage - Date published:
10:06 am, November 17th, 2024 - 33 comments
Categories: climate change, Environment, national, same old national, simeon brown, transport -
Tags:
There was further unwelcome news for National this week with the release of figures concerning the costs of National’s Roads of National Significance or as Matt L at Greater Auckland describes them, roads of National Party Significance.
Waka Kotahi’s figures suggest that costs could be anything between $5 billion and $15 billion greater than National claimed in its campaign material last year.
The figures have always been dubious. When they were released Labour’s David Parker pointed out that some of the costings were way out of kilter.
In particular:
“Tauriko West SH29 – National has put the cost at $1.9 billion. Waka Kotahi’s latest estimates put the cost range at $2.5 – $3.25 billion ($600 million – $1.35 billion short).
Warkworth to Wellsford Expressway – National says $2.2 billion. The latest Waka Kotahi estimate is $3.5 – $4 billion ($1.3 – $1.8 billion short).
Cambridge to Piarere – National says $721 million. The latest Waka Kotahi estimate is $1.5 – $2 billion ($780 million – $1.28 billion short).
Whangarei to Port Marsden – National says $1.3 billion. The latest Waka Kotahi estimate is $1.41 – $1.67 billion ($110 – $367 million short).”
The latest Waka Kotahi cost estimates suggest that the cost of the Warkworth to Wellsford Expressway and the Cambridge to Piarere motorway have miraculously decreased. It may be the scope of both projects have been wound back.
But the overall cost, originally put by National at $17.3 billion is now at best $22.3 billion and at worst $32 billion. That is a lot of Cook Island Rail ferries to cancel to meet this cost.
Here are the details:
No doubt National will barrel on ahead with the projects despite the benefit cost ratios heading south and despite the fact that we are in a climate crisis and should be spending on infrastructure that will address this, not induce demand for more car driving.
And something surprising happened while I was researching this post.
I went to the National Party website to find its Transport for the Future document to check on its costings.
The document was not there which seems weird.
When I checked the way back machine the link to the document used to be there. In fact in May of this year it was still available.
Here is a screen grab of the archive.
And here is a screengrab of the site as it is currently.
The other policy pages appear to be intact and still link to other policy documents from last year. As far as I can tell the Transport for the Future document is the only one missing.
The document is however available on the web. Interest.co.nz has a downloadable copy here.
But is National hiding its policy documents hoping to frustrate efforts to review what it previously promised?
That is pretty tricky.
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Well Micky CoC appear to have fudged or even lied by omission about so many policies, this is no real surprise that their figures don't add up.
Willis’ budget interview with Jack Tame remains a clear pointer.
So much of their arrogant self belief is currently being challenged. You can ignore advice science and sense only so often before you have to eat humble pie, or even lose support which appears to be the outcome.
Excellent work done here Micky, and I would venture another "Tui" moment is coming with Health and Education.
When your key man is scrapping over Milo in Health, and in Education buses to Rural schools have been removed, it shows poor planning.
We also have a contentious bill passed which ignores the need for equity and sells a false idea of equality. This has received a huge challenge both in and out of the House.
CoC have played Jenga with the Economy, and they have destabilised everything to the point people are questioning the Leadership, the direction and the relevance to our values and way of life. Pull out too many foundation blocks and it could all cost far more to repair or replace with deminishing income.
Their reputation as "Better Managers" is looking very hollow, and their money over people approach is creating a double dip recession. imo
Patricia, I cannot disagree with a word you’ve written. However, my faith in politicians and in the people who install them to power is fading as I age. The re-elevation of Trump to power is a case in point. I fear the momentum for such an outcome is also building here, sadly.
Australia is trying to protect their young. We should follow suit.
The "selfies" age has generated a "me" generation, but we in NZ are now also toe to toe with the movers and shakers, developing strategies to cope with climate fall out while working on game changing energy ideas and trials.
Each Government whose strategies deny Climate Change will be quickly caught out and thrown out, as costs soar and insurance is lost.
New Zealand has a sense of community that makes us popular employees overseas, but we also keep New Zealand close to our hearts.
We were building towards sustainability, that is now at risk.
We were building towards Co-governance. That has been stopped.
We were understanding the Treaty more, and that growing pride in our dual heritage is being challenged by an Atlas trained acolyte.
The swell of protest is a tsunami of determination and belief that divisive legislation is not the way forward.
Do not despair Vaughn, many of us are linking hands, supporting reporting informing and comforting those affected by this lot. I hope to be here to vote in 26!!
What has happened to the promised 20,000 more charging sites for EVs?
I'd like an answer to that too.
32 billion….that is almost 11 Dunedin hospitals
well put; a few hospitals and a future proofed inter island link rather than more roads we can't keep in decent knick or likely need with a hollowed out economy.
I read the delays on SH1 repairs north of Hamilton was to give the boy racer minister his desired 110kph rating. FFS
Heh ..more like Roads of National Stupidity
Well, I think we can count out any backtrack on the decision to toll the new Manawatu gorge by-pass highway now.
Simeon Brown announced the government roll out of a whole lot of new speed cameras a few months ago.
Figures.
"If you drive a car, I'll tax the street….."
"TAXMAN (Mr Brown)!"
Get ready for some big increases in RUC and fuel taxes.
They ain't going to get cheaper and they all need doing.
If National can stay in for two terms they may be able to stabilise our reputation as largely too unstable for international transport infrastructure bankers to bother with.
The Tauranga approaches are disgusting particularly the injury and death toll after Cambridge, the SH1 Brynderwyns is a geological blancmange, and the Port Marsden one is critical piece to shifting some load to Northport rather than Auckland.
Would've been great if Labour-Greens had stopped their Auckland SH1 harbour fantasies and light rail debacles, and instead concentrated on delivery with our money. But here we are.
National are about to face the Christmas holiday traffic and we'll see many systemic cracks turn into earthquakes around the country.
A rail link connecting Auckland airport to the city is as or more important than freight roading between Northport and Auckland, and it would be largely paid for by international and domestic tourists rather than low income consumers who bear a disproportionate burden for road infrastructure.
There's a rail line between Northport and Auckland in case you didn't know and it doesn't appear to have many geological issues. Perfect for moving bulk freight to an inland port around Waimauku/Kumeu. Level crossings closer to Auckland than that prevent rail straight to POA so truck it from there.
International transport bankers aren't fucking around with the Brynderwyns in a million years…
Light rail is dead and Labour killed it. Under no combination of coalition is it coming back.
Rail traffic to Northland is less than 5% of total freight and destined to remain so for a long time. The rail line from Whangarei to Northport has no set construction timetable, so there's no rail line to Northport in the future. Investment in rail outside the Golden Triangle will be next-to zero for all the terms National are in.
The SH1 Brynderwyn route is being procured as a PPP by NZTA, and there's likely to be 3 of them. PPP's require private sector infrastructure bankers to structure the risk of both delivery and operation. It's likely they will also get a tolling concession as well.
Didn't answer any of my points but hey ho, I don't care.
You're talking in wish-list language that has no reality anymore.
What's "the injury and death toll after Cambridge" about? Thanks!
Heading south on SH1 from where the Waikato expressway ends, to the Tauranga turnoff, is one of the deadliest stretches of SH1 we have.
They are currently constructing a big roundabout at the Tauranga exit intersection which is a start, but it's really needing to be a full grade separated flyover – just as it is at the northern Huntly end of that expressway.
Thanks, yeah, that's a hostile area, full stop.
Trouble is — even if Labour gets back next term, if even the slightest napkin of a contract has been signed, Labour will commit to finishing the extreme economic damage that these roads are. Because they're a shiver looking for a spine.
One thing Cyclone Gabrielle taught us is that our state highways are a critical lifeline and they need to be strong enough to withstand pretty much anything if supplies are to get through. We're a linear, ultra car dependent country and will be for the foreseeable future.
NZTA run the SH system irrespective of which government is in power, and much of their funding is hypothecated for their system alone – most of that going on state highways.
Nature doesn't care for PPPs.
People care about lifeline connections.
would have been good if we'd also learned that we can't keep all our roads in good condition as the climate crisis deepens, and redesigned society and infrastructure to take that into account.
Sounds set in stone, and we cant do anything about the car depe…
Hang on, we can! Restore public transport, reduce the need for travel, make the streets safe for more economical modes of transport etc etc. And we can have ferries and hospitals from the saved money!
Again, time for them to become a transport agency, rather than a car agency ¯_(ツ)_/¯
This is one of the most depressing pieces on The Standard for some time because it points out so many structural and long term problems caused by the construction of a neo liberal NZ state, with much infrastructure run (or run down) by SOEs as businesses that have to return a ‘profit’. Every Govt. since 1984 has just rolled over the Reserve Bank Act and all the rest of it.
Just as we should be winding back growth, coping with Climate change, promoting EVs, sustainable energy, Rail and coastal shipping, and public transport–the Natzos go crazy on ICE vehicle provision. With a low wage economy how many will afford more tolls or the other costs of this madness?
+1000 Tiger. We need to chuck Simeon and his friends out in 2026.
NZTA isn't an SOE.
It's a Crown Entity. It's moved and funded by specific policy and funding instruments.
Pedantry is only occasionally necessary, I don’t write novellas on The Standard, am referring to the neo liberal state in a general sense and did not refer to Waka Kotahi specifically even though Micky did.
Our motorway dominance was set in place decades before "neoliberalism". They were locked in when our trams were removed by 1956 (apart from Wellington) and the motorways confirmed at around the same time.
You've simply confused your car era and your political era.
Plenty of posts on Greater Auckland explain transport's structural and operational levers so you don't have to research and write novellas.
My take is that neo libs did not keep up the network maintenance, barring certain areas of some tory electorates and bulk truck zones.
As I understand it there was a great post WWII plan for Auckland being a green city with parks and circular layouts rather than a US style freeway city. Sid Holland got in and the trucking lobby got their way basically.
A shame because there are still remnants in towns of the provinces of wide roads, avenues and civic focused architecture.
That plan and the politics around it are set out in Chris Trotters book No Left Turn.
I'd be interested to hear why Labour have come out in favor of this governments' new policy on ppp's.
If anyone has insight
What I'm saying to you is that our figures are rock-solid so lets move on.