Bubble bubble toil and trouble

An announcement on the Trans Tasman bubble is expected this afternoon.

From Radio New Zealand:

The government will today announce when the country will begin a long anticipated trans-Tasman bubble with Australia.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will make the announcement this afternoon, after meeting with Cabinet.

Ardern said the government had carefully worked through the framework of a trans-Tasman bubble, but she warned travelling would not be without risk.

“We will have a number of precautions in place ready to go if in the event we need to alter people’s travel, but anyone who is looking to book to travel to Australia will just need to factor in plans if there is something that happens on either side of the ditch,” she said.

The tourism industry is keen.  Again from Radio New Zealand:

Tourism Industry Aotearoa chief executive Chris Roberts was hopeful for a two-way bubble this month, but in the meantime said businesses needed more clarity on what would happen if there were outbreaks.

“How we look after our guests who are in the country in those circumstances and what messaging are we giving to people who want to come to New Zealand.

“If we have all that information provided by the government, then the industry will be raring to go,” he said.

He should be asking these questions of the Australian Government and of the six Australian states.  They will control who comes here and how and when they return.

And Judith Collins is having an especially spiteful morning.

National Party leader Judith Collins didn’t want to wait any longer and said she’d be disappointed if a bubble wasn’t in place this week.

“I’m sure the Australians can do it for six months, we should be able to do it,” she said.

Collins said the wait had been traumatic for many New Zealanders who have been unable to see family.

But the issues are complex and for the Tourism Industry I don’t think that the bubble will be the panacea that some operators think it is.

Sure there will be more Australians visiting.  But less Kiwis who will instead take the chance to head across the ditch rather than holiday here.  And who is going to afford the travel insurance, presuming that it is available.

And I am not sure that Australia has Covid completely under control.  Their systems appear to be inferior to ours as indicated by the fairly regular community outbreaks that are occurring.

Elsewhere throughout the world the virus is again surging.  The United Kingdom, thanks to a fairly strict lockdown and mass vaccination, have reduced daily new infection rates from 60,000 to 7,000.  But in other parts of Europe numbers are increasing and the UK variant of the virus, which is more transmittable, is becoming the dominant variant.  And there are concerns that the South African variant may be resistant to the current vaccines.

And the unholy scrap for vaccines continue.  National had criticised the Government for being cautious with its announcements concerning the roll out of vaccines and pointed to Australia where the roll out had been publicised with some detail.  But Australia’s roll out appears to be less than optimal.

From Shannan Molloy at the ABC:

Yesterday, four million Americans received a dose of the COVID-19 vaccine as the country continues to rapidly accelerate its rollout.

By comparison, that’s the same number of Australians who were meant to have gotten a jab by the end of March … a target that the Government fell short of by 3.4 million people.

Just two per cent of Australians have received a jab so far, compared to 30 per cent of the US population and 46 per cent of people in the UK.

A number of frontline health workers, hotel quarantine workers and vulnerable aged care residents remain unvaccinated, despite the significant risks.

Supply from overseas has dwindled, distribution of what the country does hold has been marred by issues, communication between authorities and the GPs tasked with administering jabs is chaotic, and fury is growing, experts say.

The basic problem is that Morrison overpromised, did not do the preparation work to make sure that the distribution and vaccination networks were in place and organised, and when Europe choked off Australia’s supply the program faltered.  However Europe’s actions are not an excuse.  The report is that a shipment of 250,000 vaccines was blocked but this is only a small part of the short fall.  There is a laboratory pumping out Astra Zeneca vaccines and the crisis is in large part self inflicted.

A bubble was nearly in place in February but Australia changed its mind at the last minute and negotiations continued.  Katie Scotcher from Radio New Zealand reported this in March this year:

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has, however, clarified that officials were close to reaching an agreement at the start of February.

In response to a written question from National MP Chris Bishop, Hipkins said the two-way quarantine travel could start when “the respective health authorities have determined that the rate of Covid-19 transmission and associated public health risk is acceptably low in both countries”.

He also revealed New Zealand and Australian officials had discussed the draft arrangement text on 4 February but Australia changed its mind, deciding it wanted to be able to make independent decisions.

“We were relatively comfortable with where things were heading, we were sort of on track. Since then Australia’s position shifted so we’ve had to recalibrate,” Hipkins said.

“Look, these things happen.”

The independent approach Australia wants to take will be more challenging for the government to manage and as Hipkins explained during Question Time, there is a lot for officials to work through.

“Issues that we’re working through include understanding the circumstances that could lead to a suspension of green zone travel on either side of the Tasman; what we would do with those whose travel is disrupted by the suspension of a green zone; testing requirements that may be put in place on either side; Australia’s current exit visa restriction that prevents Australians travelling to New Zealand without a visa; the state-by-state differences in decision making in Australia; decision making around expansion to other countries outside of the safe travel zone and who would make those, and whether New Zealand would have any input into that process; and contact tracing system interoperability, in the event that we needed to do contact tracing for people who had been in one country, and were then identified as being more at risk after they had travelled to another country,” Hipkins said in the House.

So it appears the trans Tasman bubble will be a thing in the near future.  But until both populations have been sufficiently vaccinated I suspect that a constant recalibration of arrangements will be required.  And I am sure that flare ups of the virus on either side of the Tasman is going to upset and test any arrangements reached.

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