Can This Government Be Saved?

Written By: - Date published: 5:43 pm, March 25th, 2022 - 118 comments
Categories: act, covid-19, economy, elections, grant robertson, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, maori party, national - Tags:

Politics, in the phrase of ex-US Attorney General William Barr, is just one damn thing after another.

It is especially the case with this Labour government.

Can Labour win a third term? I will leave the question of ought they to your own voting pen.

Let’s look at some pathways up, and pathways down.

Top 5 Things That Will Get Them There

1. Coalition Potential

The Green Party are bobbing comfortably around 8-11%. They have done nothing of note, offered no support other than key legislation and budget, and kept their hands so clean to get that result. This is the 10% coalition partner Labour needs for another shot.
The Maori Party are the coalition hinge, since likely to retain two. But they are so incoherent that they may as well stitch the For Sale signs on their backs. Time for Labour’s Maori caucus to work as a caucus.

2. Leadership of Prime Minister Ardern

So much depends on the last two months of campaign of head-to-heads, and Labour remain strong here. Her support among her Labour base remains very strong among women, even if corroded within the general public. Her message discipline extends to her entire Cabinet and caucus. No major reshuffles, all scandals and investigations squashed, not a hair out of place. Her to-camera coherence and intelligence still remain an electoral asset. I had thought that Clark would waste Key in debate back in 2008, so I wouldn’t write off Luxon v Ardern. But Ardern is still in her prime and is still an electoral asset – if she can revive in 2022.

3. Minister of Finance Robertson

As Cullen had to in 2005, to win a third term Roberston will have to pull something out of the bag big enough to shift a clear wavering mass back into the Probable Labour vote box. National are now really weak in finance. Robertson has proven to be the power behind the throne in both terms, and he’s an asset Labour need to sell harder to the electorate.

4. Economy

Ours remains one of the strongest economies in the OECD. Headline unemployment and under-utilisation is going to stay at record low levels while international labour movement remains constrained. Economic confidence is sliding down as it gets harder to figure where to invest for those who have such means, and harder to make ends meet for the rest. Over-heating, production limits, and inflation are signals of continuing success. Labour will be rightly trumpeting its successes and its increased support for so many.

5. Delivery

Surprisingly, the second half of this term is where the big openings are. Transmission Gully opens in weeks. Waikato Bypass opens late this year. Cycleways in Dunedin, Wellington and Auckland late this year and early next. Te Ara Tuhono to Wellsford opens end of this year. Dunedin Hospital will start to see big steel girders come out of the ground this year. Invercargill Central opens. Labour have also delivered deeper and deeper subsidies for families, workers, old people, beneficiaries, companies, and more. The massive Woman’s World Football Cup 2023 will link Australia and New Zealand into our biggest sporting stage. The electoral question is: will this delivery be sold well enough to turn into votes?

Top 5 Things That Will Stop Labour

1. Luxon Romance

He’s as mild and small-c conservative as Ardern. He’s at least as fresh to power as she was in 2017. In the evangelical core he can bring double the votes that there are in Labour Party members. Many media are turning against Ardern towards Luxon as the inoffensive alternative. His caucus is united if dull, but then TBH so is Labour’s. Men over 40 want a man for PM again. Labour’s top team are as haggard as their public servants. The big end of town appreciate an ex-Chief Executive and their proxy advertising dollar will follow. Luxon cancels out most of Ardern’s advantages and has none of her growing drag of baggage weight.

2. A Further Major COVID Variant Outbreak

Nothing Labour could do about it now: their support would wither either way if they had to reimpose social controls, or bail out the economy again, or just let it burn through the population with higher deaths in order to stay competitive with our neighbours. This would tank what is sinking them already.

3. A Good Speech, and Proxies

I’m not sure if Luxon has an Orewa Speech in him. I’m not sure if he wants to do a full-throated support of Howl of a Protest farmers. I am more sure that John Key could organise proxy speakers to point the way with some electrifying electoral sizzle to steal 4% in a bump. Would National actually gain rural votes by opposing the 3-Waters policy? If National take the Auckland mayoralty and a majority on Council, they gain a more active proxy than Labour did from their putative 2-term dominance

4. Housing

Every year there are doomsayers who say our private debt exposure through mortgages is too high, and there are more of them now. It would take quite a confluence of events, but this doesn’t smell like 1988 quite yet. Let’s see in 12 months. It’s hard to forecast how much of an electoral impact a house price fall would have since National housing policies would be difficult to defend electorally.

5. Tax

If there’s a Labour Kryptonite, it’s tax. This is the Pavlovian Dog of voting. It’s not fair, not fun, not economically effective, and constrains future governments. But it shifts the mood to “what’s in it for me” and coldly alters public discourse towards National. If Labour can’t answer this question in dollars and cents they will lose.

118 comments on “Can This Government Be Saved? ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Hongi Ika 1
    25 March 2022 at 5:53 pm

    If Winston NZF can win the Tauranga BY Election it could throw the spanner in thee works ?

  2. McFlock 2
    25 March 2022 at 6:08 pm

    A lot of it comes down to the budget.

    Masks are still popular, and vaccinations are widespread. some workplaces will ease off their vaccination requirements, but I know that some will also keep it as a basic part of the application process where applicable, like checking drivers' licenses.

    If we get a few months breathing room before the next variant, folks will really focus on other things. 3Waters pisses off some sectors, but housing and inflation will be big issues (especially with the fuel costs making groceries more expensive). The budget will be a big clue here, whether Labour chooses to advance out of the challenges or merely hunker down and wait to be squashed.

    They've had long enough to figure out why kiwibuild fucked up. Housing needs a new idea.

  3. pat 3
    25 March 2022 at 6:15 pm

    Too early for this….the outcome will ultimately be predicated on the economy, which isnt looking to be too flash in a years time

  4. Binders full of women 4
    25 March 2022 at 6:30 pm

    They only need to do two things..

    1) Bin 3 Waters

    2) Avoid dumb-spend eg $195m for 28 people a day (none of them Labour MPs) to catch a Hamilton-Auckland train (1800s tech), and $70k for anti vax art FFS.

    Am I allowed a 3rd one— do something about Robbo & Orr –10+% inflation is a bad look.

    • DB Brown 4.1
      26 March 2022 at 8:29 am

      What's your critique of 3 waters – or are you too busy looking through your binders?

      What's your problem with artists being paid?

      What's your problem with trains? Te Huia line got hit by covid and shut down, but numbers were climbing making your statement nonsense.

      https://www.tehuiatrain.co.nz/assets/Te-Huia/Patronage-reports/Te-Huia-patronage-data-to-February-2022.pdf

      Do you have something original to contribute or do you only operate on repeat mode?

      • Binders full of women 4.1.1
        26 March 2022 at 8:39 am

        No problem with trains. I love trains and was a regular train user in Japan and UK- high density cities where car travel would have been literally impossible. My problem is with ill thought out big spends (bike bridge= yes, no, Dominion Rd= prob never gonna happen). What I hate is seeing $195m Ham-Auck train for 28 people and how many state houses (or even better Greens progressive ownership model)- like about 600- that couil have been built for that money. I'm sick of seeing families with children living in cars in this country.

      • Gypsy 4.1.2
        26 March 2022 at 3:16 pm

        "but numbers were climbing making your statement nonsense."

        From your own source:

        In the 5 weeks after the line reopened, the daily averages have been 96, 88, 76, 61, 85. That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week.

        It's even worse when you look at the 4 weeks before the covid shut down (to 17th August), when the daily average were 139, 121, 115, 113.

        Rather than climbing, the patronage or that period was a downward spiral.

        In December 2021, a report for HCC found that Te Huia had earned $300,000 and cost $3m, and "the weekday service is tracking 49 per cent below business case projections, and 28 per cent below Covid-adjusted projections".

        It's a dog. Shoot it.

        • Incognito 4.1.2.1
          26 March 2022 at 3:51 pm

          That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week.

          LOL! You obviously have very little or no experience with statistics and probabilities. Beginners often want to exclude the points that they don’t like calling them ‘outliers’. Beginners also believe because a data set appears to trend down it is a real effect. In your case, it seems you’re looking for something that suits your narrative, as you did with your ridiculous and self-invented “total Global Population Mortality Rate”. Even so, I wouldn’t shoot ‘the dog’ because you can teach even an old dog new tricks.

          • Gypsy 4.1.2.1.1
            26 March 2022 at 4:50 pm

            "self-invented “total Global Population Mortality Rate”. "

            It seems strange you hadn't previously encountered this. It is one of the headline measurements used at worldometers, a site you yourself linked to. You can also see it used at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality, https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ etc.

            "You obviously have very little or no experience with statistics and probabilities. "

            You seem confused. A 'trend' is a general direction in which something is developing or changing.

            The last seven weeks of the dataset DB used to claim patronage was increasing shows it was actually declining. That is the ‘trend’ over that 7 weeks.

            But just for you, I went back even further. As per above, the average daily patronage for 16/8/21 was 113, the fourth week in succession when the daily patronage had declined. The 6 weeks between 14/6 and 19/7 averaged 133, a decline from an average of 122 for the four weeks to 16/8.

            So go back all you like, the trend is down. $3m spent and $300k earned. It's a dog.

            • DB Brown 4.1.2.1.1.1
              26 March 2022 at 4:53 pm

              You just make shit up. Not worth engaging. Enjoy your delusions and your petty peeves.

            • Incognito 4.1.2.1.1.2
              26 March 2022 at 5:43 pm

              I thought and still think it is futile to counter misguided individuals who make up their own artificial statistics and give it an air of authority to help construct their own personal narrative. In other words, it was and still is BS – there’s no such metric as “total Global Population Mortality Rate” and using Google I could only find one hit and “Global Population Mortality Rate” [without punctuation within] resulted in only ten (10) hits, which should tell you enough.

              You seem confused about trends and trend lines and you appear to base your a priori conclusions on an extrapolation of the data beyond the measured interval or time period. It’s a classical rookie mistake. Until you have more data points within the measured interval and/or more data beyond the measured interval all bets are off, literally, i.e. you’re gambling with the odds stacked against you.

              Nice try, must do better.

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 6:19 pm

                Why did you only google "total Global Population Mortality Rate"? Some kind of confirmation bias, perhaps?

                Google 'global population mortality rate' and you get 1,530,000 results.

                Google 'covid population mortality rate' and you get 1,430,000,000 results, including the site you have quoted – worldometers.

                When you go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, the data includes a column titled 'Deaths per 1M pop". That is the population mortality rate for covid.

                You may not have heard of it, but PMR is simply the number of deaths from a specific or all causes, and it is a statistic used by the CIA, the world bank, the WHO, and on and on.

                I'd recommend you google "what is population mortality rate."

                EDIT: You also might want to have a chat to Drowsy – he’s just used the same measure https://thestandard.org.nz/government-announces-significant-changes-to-traffic-light-settings-and-mandates/#comment-1878922.

                • Drowsy M. Kram …
                  26 March 2022 at 6:40 pm

                  EDIT: You also might want to have a chat to Drowsy – he’s just used the same measure

                  Indeed I have, if only to highlight the farcical nature of Gypsy's PMR comparisons. I don’t share Gypsy’s pandemic priorities.

                  Consider that if NZ had a population mortality rate for COVID-19 (from 1 January 2021 until now) corresponding to that of the USA (0.19%), then ~9500 Kiwis would have died, rather than the ~187 (217 – 30) that have (tragically) died.

                  A stunning achievement well worth celebrating, imho.

                  Two years since NZ first locked down – Expert Reaction
                  [21 March 2022]

                  “New Zealand needs to continue investing in public health and pandemic control infrastructure: Colleagues and I have summarised some of the key lessons from the first two years of the pandemic in a Conversation article to mark the two-year anniversary of the first confirmed Covid-19 case in New Zealand. Our major conclusion is that taking a highly proactive public health response to the pandemic has given New Zealand some of the best health, wellbeing, and economic outcomes seen globally.

                  “New Zealand was the first country to publish an elimination strategy for responding to the Covid-19 pandemic. This response minimised harms to the population and economy during the first 18 months of the pandemic until effective vaccines became widely available. Since then, New Zealand has shifted its response in a highly strategic way to suppression and now mitigation. This strategic approach has given the country the lowest Covid-19 mortality in the OECD and increased life expectancy.

                  “As the Omicron pandemic wave will soon start to recede, it is appropriate to lessen many pandemic control measures, such as border entry restrictions and the ‘Traffic Light’ system. At the same time, New Zealand needs to maintain a set of key control measures that can be turned up or down depending on the future evolution of the pandemic.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 6:48 pm

                    Thanks for confirming I didn't make the PMR up.smiley
                    Good ‘cherry pick’ with the US too.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 7:20 pm

                    "I believe that your point was:"

                    Yep. that was my point. You've conveniently chosen the US (with a population density twice that of NZ, and Canada, which has land borders with 13 states of the US.

                    And why 'english speaking'? Taiwan has a population density 38 times higher than NZ, but has a lower PMR.

                    • Muttonbird …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:07 pm

                      What's all this about cherry picking? :roll:

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:49 pm

                      Knock yourself out with Ireland: 4,427 notified deaths from 1 Jan 2021 (because that’s your starting point, for whatever reason; the grand total is 6,710 deaths) with a population size that’s very similar to New Zealand.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:50 pm

                      What's all this about cherry picking? laugh

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:20 pm

                    "Imho your bias has blinded you to the comparative successes Kiwis have enjoyed during the pandemic. "

                    Of course we've enjoyed success. Some of that is due to the governments response in 2020, some due to an accident of geography. But there have been slips, and significant ones. And that applies to most countries in the world.

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 8:22 pm

                  Why did you only google "total Global Population Mortality Rate"? [my italics]

                  Well, I did not do that. I did exactly what I said I did and found 1 and 10 proper hits, respectively. I used the terms that you yourself invented. So, the bias is all yours, I’m afraid.

                  It appears that you don’t know how to do a proper search with Google, which explains a lot of your misguided nonsense.

                  As I said before, it’s futile to try counter your BS, as it is obvious it only exists in your imagination and even Google supports this conclusion.

                  BTW, Drowsy did not use the exact same terms; can you spot the difference?

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 8:44 pm

                    You seem to think there is a difference when you add the words 'total' or 'global'. I'm not sure why you really can't see this. It' snot rocket science.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:59 pm

                      The difference is that you merged them and made up a new ‘hybrid statistic’ that nobody else uses, in any given context. This should tell you that you are the only one in the Google universe who uses them and gives them that special meaning that you think they have. You even called it a ‘neat statistical fact’. It is ‘neat’ because it fits neatly into your narrative.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:12 pm

                      Imho your bias has blinded you to the comparative successes Kiwis have enjoyed during the pandemic. Not only "in 2020" – the whole shebang. Our response has not been perfect, obviously, but is clearly better than most – you'd have to be blind not to see it.

                      I'll not be wasting any more time trying to unravel your COVID 'analyses', which should suit us both very well indeed.

                      New Zealand's Covid-19 response still one of the best worldwide – Michael Baker [28 Feb. 2022]
                      Baker said he is still optimistic about the future, highlighting that life expectancy in New Zealand has risen by about eight months over the course of the pandemic…

                      What do the data show for the 2019-2021 country rankings?

                      Two features carry over from previous editions of the World Happiness Report. First, there is still a lot of year-to-year consistency in the way people rate their lives in different countries. Since we do our ranking on a three-year average, information is carried forward from one year to the next (See Figure 1 of Statistical Appendix 1 for individual country trajectories). For the fifth year in a row, Finland continues to occupy the top spot, with a score significantly ahead of other countries in the top ten. Denmark continues to occupy second place, with Iceland up from 4th place last year to 3rd this year. Switzerland is 4th, followed by the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The top ten are rounded out by Sweden, Norway, Israel and New Zealand. The following five are Austria, Australia, Ireland, Germany, and Canada. This marks a substantial fall for Canada, which was 5th in the first World Happiness Report. The rest of the top 20 include the United States at 16th (up from 19th last year), the United Kingdom, and Czechia still in 17th and 18th, followed by Belgium at 19th, and France at 20th, its highest ranking yet.
                      https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2022/happiness-benevolence-and-trust-during-covid-19-and-beyond/

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:03 pm

                    "The difference is that you merged them and made up a new ‘hybrid statistic’ that nobody else uses, in any given context."

                    Rubbish. The words total and global don't change the meaning in the context at all. And the are the same words I included in a post you twice responded to before pretending not to understand it.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:14 pm

                      You’re calling me a liar and you pretend that context does not matter. Point is nobody uses these words in the same combination as you do. You’re alone and on your own. Accept it.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:22 pm

                    "Point is nobody uses these words in the same combination as you do. "

                    And yet it is obvious you knew what I meant.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:29 pm

                      Nope, it was not. For example, I still don’t know the presumed difference, in your mind, between “total Global PMR” and “Global PMR”, if there’s any, which I now sincerely doubt. It all looked like BS to me, which is why I did not pursue it. Today, you have confirmed my worst suspicions. Moreover, you have repeatedly accused me of lying.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:37 pm

                    "“total Global PMR” and “Global PMR”, "

                    Why is the word 'total' so important to you? I think you're just getting desperate. You knew what i meant, you’re responses show that.

                    [You used them and made them up, you explain them and show evidence that they are bone fide stats as used by others. Good luck – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:06 pm

                    "You used them and made them up, you explain them and show evidence that they are bone fide stats as used by others. G"

                    I have. And you demonstrated you knew exactly what they meant. And, other posters have used them (plural).

                    [You need to provide external links in which others have used those exact terms as used by you. Stop beating around the bush and back up your artificial constructs. Other commenters may have gone along with you, to a point, and that’s both disappointing and frustrating because there’s no basis for it other than that you made them up. My BS detector is set more sensitive than most here, particularly when it relates to stats and self-invented metrics (or definitions) associated with Covid – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:38 pm

                    "You need to provide external links in which others have used those exact terms as used by you. "

                    Are you serious? You know what the words mean. You read them and went straight to the conclusion. I can only assume you are dancing around trying to justify yourself because I pointed that out.

                    [Yup, now I am deadly serious, thanks to you – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 11:03 pm

                    "Well done! "

                    Thanks. Let's call it a night.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 11:05 pm

                      My work here is not done yet, but I’m going to take a break and a drink – I have deserved both!

                    • weka …
                      27 March 2022 at 10:32 am

                      If you use the last reply button in a thread, rather than going back an indent, conversations will be easier to follow. Just find the comment you want to reply to, and scroll back up to the first Reply button in line with that comment.

                      Also, sometimes comments get held back because there are too many links, or a moderator has set the commenter to premod (meaning comments need to be released manually).

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 6:21 pm

                "You seem confused about trends and trend lines "

                Nope. I gave you a common definition of trend, and my comments have been specific to DB's false claim that the "numbers were climbing ".

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 8:29 pm

                  You seem to think a trend means an actual and real change over time in a certain direction. Based on those daily average numbers over 5 and 4 weeks, respectively, you cannot draw this conclusion, as these trends could easily have been caused by chance alone. You see, before you draw any conclusions, you should run a test of sorts and your confirmation bias is not an appropriate test by any means. It’s all in your head, again.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 8:45 pm

                    I gave you a definition of trend, which was fairly common. A trend can be demonstrated over 5 weeks. It can also be demonstrated over a longer period of time, as I did.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 8:52 pm

                      Don’t be thick. A trend means nothing until you know it is not caused by random chance. From the data provided you cannot draw this conclusion (yet). Stop talking out of your arse.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:05 pm

                    "A trend means nothing until you know it is not caused by random chance. "

                    Now you are being silly. A trend is a trend. You can see trends in randomly generated data.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:11 pm

                      You can see trends in randomly generated data.

                      Yes, you can, and that’s exactly the point: it may or may not be real. Why can’t you get this through your thick skull? When you do this in daily life it is a form of delusion (aka apophenia or patternicity).

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 9:01 pm

                "You made up these two terms"

                I didn't make up any terms. But what I do find interesting is that after I used the term "total Global Population Mortality Rate" here, you replied here and here without questioning it. And in the first post you wrote "Rank Countries by Deaths/1M pop" so you knew exactly what it meant.

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 9:06 pm

                  Nope. Which is why I picked a term that I do understand and straight from an existing table in which the rank order can be changed interactively online. I wasn’t about to counter an artificial construct made up by you. However, when you again showed your ignorance about stats today, I decided to dig a little deeper. I was shocked that even with Google I could only find less than a dozen proper hits.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:09 pm

                    Bullshit. You specifically responded to my comment with a reference to ""Rank Countries by Deaths/1M pop"". You knew exactly what I meant.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:13 pm

                    Oh dear. And here, in response to me using the term "total Global Population Mortality Rate" you wrote "You have not provided a link, but it seems to me that you’re out by a large factor."

                    You said I was out about a statistic you don't think is a thing?

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:24 pm

                      Whatever you did and however you came to result of 2,500 deaths in NZ, it made no sense. It also made no sense when I looked at the table online, without any mental acrobatics, and could easily produce the projected number of 5,000 Covid-related deaths in NZ, which you labelled as “pure fantasy”.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:17 pm

                    "Are you calling me a liar?"

                    I hate that word. I think you knew what the term means, I think you know the term describes something entirely valid, but for some reason you've dug yourself a hole.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:34 pm

                    "Whatever you did and however you came to result of 2,500 deaths in NZ, it made no sense. It also made no sense when I looked at the table online, without any mental acrobatics, and could easily produce the projected number of 5,000 Covid-related deaths in NZ, which you labelled as “pure fantasy”."

                    That's one of the reasons I have used the post 2020 data, to eliminate a period before vaxxes were in play because if we're serious about the numbers, it's more accurate to use data that is relevant to the current situation.

                    I had explained here that the global PMR for 2021/22 is 0.053%.

                    If we apply that to NZ population of 4,917,000, we get 2,600 deaths.

                    The total global PMR (is since covid began) is 0.078%. Applying that to NZ population gives 3,826 deaths, still well short of 5,000. But I dispute that methodology because it includes almost a year of exposure without any vaccination.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:52 pm

                      You’re just repeating yourself and the higher the number becomes the more desperately you dispute it and the ‘methodology’. The only person who operates in “pure fantasy” is you.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:04 pm

                    "You’re just repeating yourself…"

                    I was answering your post.

                    "…and the higher the number becomes the more desperately you dispute it and the ‘methodology’.""

                    No, the number we have been discussing is the claim of 5,000 deaths in NZ. My view is that was never a reasonable assumption, and to demonstrate that i have used global averages for both the CMR and PMR.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 10:48 pm

                      Yes, by now we know your view all too well, thanks. And that you have laboured to dispel the number of 5,000 as “pure fantasy”. Instead, you could have used all the info and data provided to you on a platter in a plethora of comments to adjust and correct (or moderate) your views. You stubborn denial and obfuscation have become irksome, to say the least. I remember that you used to behave in the exact same way here on TS a while ago. It didn’t end well then either.

              • Gypsy …
                26 March 2022 at 9:07 pm

                "(because that’s your starting point, for whatever reason;"

                Because you obviously havn't been following, I explained that I use post 2020 data in some cases to look at a period when vaccinations were in play.

                • Incognito …
                  26 March 2022 at 9:17 pm

                  Vaccination rates are very different in different countries. It was a weak and arbitrary cut-off.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:26 pm

                    Arbitrary, yes. Weak, no. I started using it to give credit to NZ for our high vaccination rate.

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 9:33 pm

                      Everything you’ve done is weak and piss-poor. You have no statistical knowledge and skills to allow you to have a go at other commenters about their perceived shortcomings and incorrect conclusions. Please stop now before I stop you from wasting more of our time.

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 9:36 pm

                    You have no statistical knowledge and skills to allow you to have a go at other commenters "

                    It's funny you say that because you've not been able to show what's actually wrong in what I’ve posted.

                    [I have told you many times, but you refuse to listen. For example, the trends in those daily averages are not statistically significant, i.e. you cannot exclude the possibility that they were caused by chance alone. I’m giving you a warning now to stop wasting time here. You can re-join the convo when you demonstrate you actually have some basic statistics knowledge and skills – Incognito]

                  • Gypsy …
                    26 March 2022 at 10:09 pm

                    "For example, the trends in those daily averages are not statistically significant, i.e. you cannot exclude the possibility that they were caused by chance alone."

                    Of course I can't, but you're missing the point. DB claimed the trend was up. Even if the trends are not statistically significant, even if they were caused by chance, the trend is not up. You're just not thinking straight tonight.

                    [You claimed the following here (https://thestandard.org.nz/can-this-government-be-saved/#comment-1878884):

                    That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week.

                    …

                    … the patronage or [sic] that period was a downward spiral.

                    By your own admission you cannot draw these conclusions just as DB could not support his claim with those data. I’ll put you in Pre-Moderation until I have caught up with your other denials and until I have decided how long you take time off here – Incognito]

                    • Incognito …
                      26 March 2022 at 10:23 pm

                      Mod note

                    • Gypsy …
                      26 March 2022 at 10:32 pm

                      "That looks like a steady downward trend, apart from the final week."

                      Because that's what what it does look like. I didn't try to explain the trend or justify it. I simply showed DB was wrong. Get over yourself.

                      [And I showed that they are just random fluctuations in patronage until one can conclude otherwise with more data and/or longer periods – Incognito]

                    • Incognito []
                      26 March 2022 at 10:39 pm

                      Mod note

  5. Patricia Bremner 5
    25 March 2022 at 6:45 pm

    Can this Government be saved?

    A loaded question. "Have you stopped beating Jacinda Ardern because we have a Pandemic."

    Is the glass half full or half empty? I guess for some it is always half empty, it will be…

    Those who feel this Government has questioned their God given right to be superior.

    Those who are not used to considering community.

    Those who feel money gives them power.

    Those who feel "What's in it for me?"

    Those of us who know that every strategy will be brought to bear to bring this PM and Government down, should call it out when we see it.

    Life is not perfect….But…

    Show me a perfect Pandemic response.

    Show me strategies to meet needs.

    Show me Policies with people and planet at their heart.

    Show me pride in who we are and our wonderful indigenous culture.

    Show examples of Leadership and delivery to stop naysayers.

    Remind New Zealanders of their influence world wide.

    Labour members should begin donating to assist in countering the big money influence.

    The main reason to help keep this Government in place is no "Hollow Men" thanks.

  6. KJT 6
    25 March 2022 at 6:59 pm

    lost your last bit of remaining credibility when you mentioned the Greens.

    As so much of Labours progressive policies were originated by them.

    Labours re-election, and the chance of real progress for NZ, depend on a Labour/Green co-alition.

    You are as blinded as the Anti Jacinda mob.

  7. Stuart Munro 7
    25 March 2022 at 8:28 pm

    Ours remains one of the strongest economies in the OECD. Headline unemployment and under-utilisation is going to stay at record low levels

    Yes, we are aware that that is what Treasury is telling you – but it bears little resemblance to the picture for working people on the ground. Caught in a squeeze between decades of real estate inflation, the unregulated greed of a duopoly, together with fuel price rises and mortgage interest rates poised to surge, it doesn't feel like a strong economy at all.

    Our productivity remains stubbornly low – which means lots of shitty jobs, and little in the way of prospects. Pretty soon we'll have a new tranche of cheap migrant workers (NZ employers would die before they brought in actually skilled ones) to lock in the generational low real wages. Labour supporters have no reason to vote, and Luxton, with sufficient media life support (and the government failed to support a real news option that could interrogate that bullshit) will probably slip through on a wave of disenchantment.

    • pat 7.1
      25 March 2022 at 10:01 pm

      That hoped for wave of immigrant labour is anticipated to be the critical factor in restraining wage grow and heading off an inflationary spiral….unfortunately for all concerned the debt levels are going to constrain spending regardless and the contraction will still occur.

      • Stuart Munro 7.1.1
        25 March 2022 at 10:07 pm

        Well cost of living growth hasn't been restrained – how poor do we have to get before Labour wake up to the fact that you can't pull that crap indefinitely? Are they all asleep?

        • pat 7.1.1.1
          25 March 2022 at 10:18 pm

          Are they asleep?…probably not, but they are out of options….hope is about all they have.

          Systemic change takes time…and they have run out.

  8. Just Saying 8
    25 March 2022 at 9:46 pm

    No.

    (Women are also general public. The days of imagining a large divide between the political interests of females (the majority btw) versus males is pretty much over now IMHO.)

    Adern's own-goal of first deliberately setting up vehement nation-wide scapegoating with dangerously divisive mandates in the context of many people who were wound up with fear and anger, then insisting on keeping them going when the rationale had become irrelevant, followed up with showing her true face as she refused to meet working-class scum, filth excrement etc., protesters: That was end game.

    Labour has always relied on a solid, if small, long-struggling, non-gentile poor vote and Adern ended it in that arrogance. Saying ''any death is one death too many'' already stuck in the throats of those of us who have lost loved ones because of reliance on grossly inadequate and underfunded public services. But in the beginning, I know I gave her the benefit of the doubt and hoped that ''kind''-ness and caring might actually extend to my people. As time wore on those painful words grew larger and were (metaphorically) choking us, as trillions went to the rich and the poor struggled even more and those health services were not improved one jot within the billions that magically appeared because anything that might threaten the comfortable actually matters. Just as those who have always struggled don't and never will to the likes of the Aderns in this world. I don't think many at TS got that. There is just too much class division, in just who we talk to, let alone listen to or even notice.

    There were also greater numbers of mandate opposers in the wider electorate than the government and the comfortably-off were aware of. Not granny-killers who are selfish and rich, but who were aware from reading overseas data that such measures were killing more people without covid than they were saving from covid. Tradies, the underemployed precariat etc….. The bullshit slurs really didn't go down.

    The beltway keeps misreading the electorate. (Also, for far too long, the evidence apparently.) That doesn't matter to parties who are not reliant on a marginalised vote. It does matter for Labour.

    This every-election voter will never vote Labour or Green again. I think there might be some off-beat independents that might make a good protest vote if I just can't bring myself to put a mark against National on the day. Maybe getting drunk will do the trick.

    • SPC 8.1
      25 March 2022 at 10:44 pm

      And what exactly did the Greens do to have you consider National and not them …

      • Just Saying 8.1.1
        25 March 2022 at 10:52 pm

        The Greens are part of this government and supported this anti-poor viciousness every step along the way.

        There may be no way to establish a parliamentary left, but if it is necessary to actively oppose the pretenders, that's just a bullet that has to be bitten.

        • Muttonbird 8.1.1.1
          25 March 2022 at 10:57 pm

          Most poor people got vaccinated like everyone else. Antivaxers aren't defined by their income, just their idiocy.

          • Just Saying 8.1.1.1.1
            25 March 2022 at 11:19 pm

            Ffs It was about the mandate. Guess what? I'm vaccinated.

            You really need to get with your government's belated changing narrative. Even they are now anti-mandate.

            And just as an aside, it looks like the protest was the most successful in decades. Time for for protestors to ditch the twinsets and ham-up the slurs. If the nay-sayers are accusing you of being anti-vaccers who believe earth is being bombarded by some kind of dangerous rays, its time to really take the piss and don the tinfoil hats.

            • Muttonbird 8.1.1.1.1.1
              25 March 2022 at 11:23 pm

              Guess what? I'm vaccinated.

              Guess what? I don't give a shit.

              Anti-mandate, anti-vax, anti-establishment, anti-social. It’s all the same thing.

              • Just Saying …
                25 March 2022 at 11:48 pm

                Ta Muttonbird, but its not the same thing.

                No point in saying scum like me don't deserve democratic rights like protest. Don't really deserve to live. There's nothing you can do that could express contempt better than your Prime Minister has already done.

                • SPC …
                  26 March 2022 at 12:12 am

                  The Greens are part of this government and supported this anti-poor viciousness every step along the way.

                  This is not an evidence based statement.

                • Patricia Bremner …
                  26 March 2022 at 12:27 pm

                  Just Saying, nothing we can say will likely alter your view. You have accused tried and convicted the target of your anger.

                  You ignore the death threats made, the blatant cruel lies about her partner, the very real threats made against the Health Minister, and rail against the failure to "front and talk".

                  When the behaviour is so deliberately provoking, leaderless by design, who would have talked? There was a list of plainly unreasonable demands put forward. Not many had anything to do with mandates. That came later, as one reason for gathering such differing groups.

                  Now I wrote here I did not agree with the Speaker's actions. They were childish and mean turning on the sprinklers. That just hardened attitudes.imo.

                  The whole pandemic declared by the WHO has been hard for many, and yes harder for those who had less to begin with. Everyone is "over it", and the Government you accuse of not listening, has changed the mandates, something the PM is on record as not favouring. So as the pandemic has changed responses have changed. “Anti poor viciousness”
                  Please explain that statement.

                  I wonder if your pain and anger is loss related. I am sorry if this is the case. We are currently dealing with a case of long covid, and the loss of a friend who missed cancer treatments just one time to many.

        • SPC 8.1.1.2
          25 March 2022 at 11:09 pm

          It is not a coalition government. The Greens are not part of the government – they have no members in Cabinet.

          They had no part in determining government policy, except as per their agreement – and related limited portfolio areas (outside Cabinet) to implement.

    • DB Brown 8.2
      26 March 2022 at 8:40 am

      Perpetual victims.

      Go do something useful for society rather than just yourself you might actually feel better.

      • Just Saying 8.2.1
        26 March 2022 at 10:20 am

        Thanks for telling us who we are. Again. I can promise you I'll be doing something a lot more useful than supporting the so-called-left.

        The irony is, you all were being warned because that's what comrades do. But nah you'd rather lose the election. That's some powerful hatred you got going there.

        • DB Brown 8.2.1.1
          26 March 2022 at 10:37 am

          "Powerful hatred"

          "You all were being warned"

          Hilarious. But you're not suffering from victimhood, right?

          Assuming you'll not be supporting the powerful hatred and blindness of the left… you'll be embracing the open arms of right wings ‘anything goes so long as we own the libs’ philosophy?

          Gosh.

          • Just Saying 8.2.1.1.1
            26 March 2022 at 11:28 am

            No DB, I won't be embracing the right wing. This isn't a team sport. It is not jerseys and brands, or a marketing 'phenomenon'. I'm trying to talk, not to score points.

            • DB Brown 8.2.1.1.1.1
              26 March 2022 at 12:18 pm

              It's all a bit mixed messaging, again, isn't it. You just want to talk?

              You've not understood how untenable, irresponsible and downright anti-social it is to be anti-vax or anti-vax adjacent in a pandemic. Why would talking any more make any difference to your warped perceptions of self above it all.

              • Just Saying …
                26 March 2022 at 12:41 pm

                Back to this again.

                It was already a fait accompli. There was no logical rationale to continue with the scapegoating because covid could not be held back. Not even China's unique control is working. The arguments about the possible consequences and why we had to carry on directing the national fear at the undocumented – it was just magical thinking and it was all unravelling.

                Even the change of policy and rhetoric and beginning to live the reality doesn't make any difference to you? When is reality going to kick in?

                Whose self above all DB? All the bollocks about working as a team and who was being harmed in reality? Who was never in the fucking team? Whose lives never have and apparently never will matter? And who was actually being selfish and self-indulgent?

            • Patricia Bremner 8.2.1.1.1.2
              26 March 2022 at 12:47 pm

              What is the warning? Who is being warned? What needs to be done? Who do you see as having powerful hatred towards those who have little.? Keep talking, as even though people take a stance, talking is important as you pointed out. Anger can cause withdrawal as well of course.

              • Just Saying …
                26 March 2022 at 1:17 pm

                During this I was falling over myself to be reasonable in the face of the most intense hate speech I've ever experienced. I, and others who left early in the piece, were trying to ''warn'' the left on this site that this was out of control.

                You accuse me of hatred. I've met, really liked some of the people on here. Before, we could talk and were comrades of a kind. How quickly I could become scum, filth, shit, worthless trash…. One beyond the pale who could not be listened to. Because of what exactly? Covid could not be stopped. That's a fact. It was a fact long before it was officially decreed in NZ.

                I was trying to suggest we really needed a plan to protect and nurture our most vulnerable. We needed to stop targeting and blaming and start working together. It couldn't be heard. The ''correct'' people weren't saying it. Not then. The scapegoating was doing real harm. Not feared in the future harm. And Covid Could Not Be Stopped.

                • DB Brown …
                  26 March 2022 at 1:25 pm

                  Still a victim.

                  Covid could not be stopped, but it could be slowed. You are wrong. It is an idiot statement to think nothing could be done.

                  You were subject to people facing an existential threat and you were adding to that threat. They called you names.

                  FFS. Get over yourself.

    • Anne 8.3
      26 March 2022 at 6:37 pm

      .. showing her true face as she refused to meet working-class scum, filth excrement etc., protesters

      Jesus you're twisted. Something is seriously wrong with your attitude. Do something about it.

      Btw, anyone who still can't spell the prime minister's surname correctly is not going to find many people who will bother reading their reckons.

  9. Muttonbird 9
    25 March 2022 at 10:37 pm

    I think they're doing fine. Don't forget this is a government which is making a massive effort to make things right for existing Kiwis before shipping in a whole lot of cheap labour and dirty money to create the illusion of a rock star economy.

    It's easy to turn the tap on and not care about the consequences, it's another to think carefully about managing a sustainable society. The majority of Kiwis now get this having seen both approaches. The left does the hard stuff. The right does the easy stuff.

    This goes for Three Waters too. The furious wank the white right wing of NZ seems to be enjoying over this perfectly sensible amalgamation and efficiency of resources shows they don’t do complicated. Cycleways, yes, fibre broadband using the cheap labour mentioned above, yes, but they refuse to fix decades of underspend.

    JA could do with a long break to recharge, spend time with her family, and get married. Once that is done she will be back, all smiles.

  10. Muttonbird 10
    25 March 2022 at 10:55 pm

    Oh, and Chris Luxton is no John Keys. Can't see him turning that around in 18 months. Besides which he has Bishop so high up and no-one trusts him at all.

    Mitchell and Brown sitting there with nothing to do since Simon inexplicably decided to quit…

    Watch out for further implosion from the National Party before the next election.

    • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 10.1
      26 March 2022 at 7:00 am

      Watch out for further implosion from the National Party before the next election.

      Here's hoping!

    • Blade 10.2
      26 March 2022 at 8:24 am

      Hope is an important thing…or maybe not. When they did a study of American soldiers captured during the Korean war they found those who were holding out hope of rescue didn't last long. Those soldiers who just concentrated on what was before them and surviving – neither holding false hope or despair, survived capture.

      Labour is believing they will be rescued by something…anything.

      Mitchell, for example, is up against Poto Williams. One down. Reality v Disneyland.

      You can bet if National win the election, there’s going to be trouble between Mitchell and Costa. Hopefully with the latter moving on.

      I think the voters now see through Labour and will vote accordingly.

      • Patricia Bremner 10.2.1
        26 March 2022 at 12:52 pm

        Arming the Police? Making money from Prison's Right Gotcha!! Mitchell!! Jeez!!

        • Blade 10.2.1.1
          26 March 2022 at 2:09 pm

          Arming the police would be a good and rational start. I notice you are great on rhetoric; short on solutions…as usual.

          Other POSSIBLE solutions.

          • A police trained public posse to assist police with controlling large crowds. Cameras to be worn at all times by posse members to make sure things don't turn into vigilantism.
          • Compulsory reading and writing lessons for all uneducated prisoners before they can access privileges. Educated prisoners would help out. No compliance means solitary confinement.

          *Reintroduce borstal boot camps. Same applies as in jails. Stern corporal punishment for young ferals who have never been told NO!

          • Reintroduction of three strikes for serious offences.
          • Bringing fear back into the law. Zero tolerance for disrespecting police, ambulance staff, nurses and other authority figures. Three months ad campaign warning of this new approach so ignorance of the law won't be an excuse.
          • General population for all corrupt police officers.
          • Introduction of corporate manslaughter legislation.
          • All school bullying becomes a police matter with short sharp borstal stays for chronic offenders.

          I could go on. Over to you. Let's hear your suggestions. Poto Williams…Jeez!

          • ozaki 10.2.1.1.1
            26 March 2022 at 2:56 pm

            "Zero tolerance for disrespecting police, ambulance staff, nurses and other authority figures." – yet met the parliament ground protestors?

          • DB Brown 10.2.1.1.2
            26 March 2022 at 5:22 pm

            Just a massive troll is what that was. I've grown passable flowers out of material such as yours. Not as rich as some I've heard but you had a good go.

            "Corporate manslaughter legislation"

            Ah, a man of the people I see. cheeky

            • Blade 10.2.1.1.2.1
              27 March 2022 at 10:45 am

              Highly strung I see. And short on a reply or counter suggestions. Take it easy. Maybe look around for another blog to infest?

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    A delay in reappointing a top civil servant may indicate a growing nervousness within the National Party about the potential consequences of David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill. Dave Samuels is waiting for reappointment as the Chief Executive of Te Puni Kokiri, but POLITIK understands that what should have been a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #36

    A listing of 34 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 1, 2024 thru Sat, September 7, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is about how peopele are not born stupid but can be fooled ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • Time for a Change

    You act as thoughYou are a blind manWho's crying, crying 'boutAll the virgins that are dyingIn your habitual dreams, you knowSeems you need more sleepBut like a parrot in a flaming treeI know it's pretty hard to seeI'm beginning to wonderIf it's time for a changeSong: Phil JuddThe next line ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt Six.

    The “double shocks” in post Cold War international affairs. The end of the Cold War fundamentally altered the global geostrategic context. In particular, the end of the nuclear “balance of terror” between the USA and USSR, coupled with the relaxation … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Buried deep

    Here's a bike on Manchester St, Feilding. I took this photo on Friday night after a very nice dinner at the very nice Vietnamese restaurant, Saigon, on Manchester Street.I thought to myself, Manchester Street? Bicycle? This could be the very spot.To recap from an earlier edition: on a February night ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies, Excerpt Five.

    Military politics as a distinct “partial regime.” Notwithstanding their peripheral status, national defense offers the raison d’être of the combat function, which their relative vulnerability makes apparent, so military forces in small peripheral democracies must be very conscious of events … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Leadership for Dummies

    If you’re going somewhere, do you maybe take a bit of an interest in the place? Read up a bit on the history, current events, places to see - that sort of thing? Presumably, if you’re taking a trip somewhere, it’s for a reason. But what if you’re going somewhere ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Home again

    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on anything you may have missed. Share Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Dead even tie for hottest August ever

    Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:The month of August was 1.49˚C warmer than pre-industrial levels, tying with 2023 for the warmest August ever, according ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Sept 7

    The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts and talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest climate science on rising temperatures and the debate about how to responde to climate disinformation; and special guest ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Have We an Infrastructure Deficit?

    An Infrastructure New Zealand report says we are keeping up with infrastructure better than we might have thought from the grumbling. But the challenge of providing for the future remains.I was astonished to learn that the quantity of our infrastructure has been keeping up with economic growth. Your paper almost ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago
  • Councils reject racism

    Last month, National passed a racist law requiring local councils to remove their Māori wards, or hold a referendum on them at the 2025 local body election. The final councils voted today, and the verdict is in: an overwhelming rejection. Only two councils out of 45 supported National's racist agenda ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Homage to Simeon Brown

    Open to all - happy weekend ahead, friends.Today I just want to be petty. It’s the way I imagine this chap is -Not only as a political persona. But his real-deal inner personality, in all its glory - appears to be pure pettiness & populist driven.Sometimes I wonder if Simeon ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • Government of deceit

    When National cut health spending and imposed a commissioner on Te Whatu Ora, they claimed that it was necessary because the organisation was bloated and inefficient, with "14 layers of management between the CEO and the patient". But it turns out they were simply lying: Health Minister Shane Reti’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • The professionals actually think and act like our Government has no fiscal crisis at all

    Treasury staff at work: The demand for a new 12-year Government bond was so strong, Treasury decided to double the amount of bonds it sold. Photo: Lynn GrievesonMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, September ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 6-September-2024

    Welcome to another Friday and another roundup of stories that caught our eye this week. As always, this and every post is brought to you by the Greater Auckland crew. If you like our work and you’d like to see more of it, we invite you to join our regular ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    6 days ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies; Excerpt Four.

    Internal versus external security. Regardless of who rules, large countries can afford to separate external and internal security functions (even if internal control functions predominate under authoritarian regimes). In fact, given the logic of power concentration and institutional centralization of … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • A Hole In The River

    There's a hole in the river where her memory liesFrom the land of the living to the air and skyShe was coming to see him, but something changed her mindDrove her down to the riverThere is no returnSongwriters: Neil Finn/Eddie RaynerThe king is dead; long live the queen!Yesterday was a ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Bright Blue His Jacket Ain’t But I Love This Fellow: A Review and Analysis of The Rings of Power E...

    My conclusion last week was that The Rings of Power season two represented a major improvement in the series. The writing’s just so much better, and honestly, its major problems are less the result of the current episodes and more creatures arising from season one plot-holes. I found episode three ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    6 days ago
  • Who should we thank for the defeat of the Nazis

    As a child in the 1950s, I thought the British had won the Second World War because that’s what all our comics said. Later on, the films and comics told me that the Americans won the war. In my late teens, I found out that the Soviet Union ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    7 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2024

    Open access notables Diurnal Temperature Range Trends Differ Below and Above the Melting Point, Pithan & Schatt, Geophysical Research Letters: The globally averaged diurnal temperature range (DTR) has shrunk since the mid-20th century, and climate models project further shrinking. Observations indicate a slowdown or reversal of this trend in recent decades. ...
    Skeptical Science
    7 days ago
  • Join us for the weekly Hoon on YouTube Live at 5pm

    Photo by Jenny Bess on UnsplashCome and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news with special guests:5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Media Link: Discussing the NZSIS Security Threat Report.

    I was interviewed by Mike Hosking at NewstalkZB and a few other media outlets about the NZSIS Security Threat Report released recently. I have long advocated for more transparency, accountability and oversight of the NZ Intelligence Community, and although the … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago
  • How do I make this better for people who drive Ford Rangers?

    Home, home again to a long warm embrace. Plenty of reasons to be glad to be back.But also, reasons for dejection.You, yes you, Simeon Brown, you odious little oik, you bible thumping petrol-pandering ratfucker weasel. You would be Reason Number One. Well, maybe first among equals with Seymour and Of-Seymour ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • A missed opportunity

    The government introduced a pretty big piece of constitutional legislation today: the Parliament Bill. But rather than the contentious constitutional change (four year terms) pushed by Labour, this merely consolidates the existing legislation covering Parliament - currently scattered across four different Acts - into one piece of legislation. While I ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Nicola Willis Seeks New Sidekick To Help Fix NZ’s Economy

    Synopsis:Nicola Willis is seeking a new Treasury Boss after Dr Caralee McLiesh’s tenure ends this month. She didn’t listen to McLiesh. Will she listen to the new one?And why is Atlas Network’s Taxpayers Union chiming in?Please consider subscribing or supporting my work. Thanks, Tui.About CaraleeAt the beginning of July, Newsroom ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Inflation alive and kicking in our land of the long white monopolies

    The golden days of profit continue for the the Foodstuffs (Pak’n’Save and New World) and Woolworths supermarket duopoly. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, September 5:The Groceries Commissioner has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The thermodynamics of electric vs. internal combustion cars

    This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler I love thermodynamics. Thermodynamics is like your mom: it may not tell you what you can do, but it damn well tells you what you can’t do. I’ve written a few previous posts that include thermodynamics, like one on air capture of ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt Three.

    The notion of geopolitical  “periphery.” The concept of periphery used here refers strictly to what can be called the geopolitical periphery. Being on the geopolitical periphery is an analytic virtue because it makes for more visible policy reform in response … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Venus Hum

    Fill me up with soundThe world sings with me a million smiles an hourI can see me dancing on my radioI can hear you singing in the blades of grassYellow dandelions on my way to schoolBig Beautiful Sky!Song: Venus Hum.Good morning, all you lovely people, and welcome to the 700th ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • I Went to a Creed Concert

    Note: The audio attached to this Webworm compliments today’s newsletter. I collected it as I met people attending a Creed concert. Their opinions may differ to mine. Read more ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • Government migration policy backfires; thousands of unemployed nurses

    The country has imported literally thousands of nurses over the past few months yet whether they are being employed as nurses is another matter. Just what is going on with HealthNZ and it nurses is, at best, opaque, in that it will not release anything but broad general statistics and ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • A Time For Unity.

    Emotional Response: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addresses mourners at the tangi of King Tuheitia on Turangawaewae Marae on Saturday, 31 August 2024.THE DEATH OF KING TUHEITIA could hardly have come at a worse time for Maoridom. The power of the Kingitanga to unify te iwi Māori was demonstrated powerfully at January’s ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Failed again

    National's tax cut policies relied on stealing revenue from the ETS (previously used to fund emissions reduction) to fund tax cuts to landlords. So how's that going? Badly. Today's auction failed again, with zero units (of a possible 7.6 million) sold. Which means they have a $456 million hole in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Security Politics in Peripheral Democracies: Excerpt Two.

    A question of size. Small size generally means large vulnerability. The perception of threat is broader and often more immediate for small countries. The feeling of comparative weakness, of exposure to risk, and of potential intimidation by larger powers often … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Nicola Willis’s Very Unserious Bungling of the Kiwirail Interislander Cancellation

    Open to all with kind thanks to all subscribers and supporters.Today, RNZ revealed that despite MFAT advice to Nicola Willis to be very “careful and deliberate” in her communications with the South Korean government, prior to any public announcement on cancelling Kiwirail’s i-Rex, Willis instead told South Korea 26 minutes ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Satisfying the Minister’s Speed Obsession

    The Minister of Transport’s speed obsession has this week resulted in two new consultations for 110km/h speed limits, one in Auckland and one in Christchurch. There has also been final approval of the Kapiti Expressway to move to 110km/h following an earlier consultation. While the changes will almost certainly see ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    1 week ago
  • What if we freed up our streets, again?

    This guest post is by Tommy de Silva, a local rangatahi and freelance writer who is passionate about making the urban fabric of Tāmaki Makaurau-Auckland more people-focused and sustainable. New Zealand’s March-April 2020 Level 4 Covid response (aka “lockdown”) was somehow both the best and worst six weeks of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    1 week ago
  • No Alarms And No Surprises

    A heart that's full up like a landfillA job that slowly kills youBruises that won't healYou look so tired, unhappyBring down the governmentThey don't, they don't speak for usI'll take a quiet lifeA handshake of carbon monoxideAnd no alarms and no surprisesThe fabulous English comedian Stewart Lee once wrote a ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Five ingenious ways people could beat the heat without cranking the AC

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Daisy Simmons Every summer brings a new spate of headlines about record-breaking heat – for good reason: 2023 was the hottest year on record, in keeping with the upward trend scientists have been clocking for decades. With climate forecasts suggesting that heat waves ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago
  • No new funding for cycling & walking

    Studies show each $1 of spending on walking and cycling infrastructure produces $13 to $35 of economic benefits from higher productivity, lower healthcare costs, less congestion, lower emissions and lower fossil fuel import costs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • 99

    Dad turned 99 today.Hell of a lot of candles, eh?He won't be alone for his birthday. He will have the warm attention of my brother, and my sister, and everyone at the rest home, the most thoughtful attentive and considerate people you could ever know. On Saturday there will be ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Getting the healthcare you need, when you need it

    The path to faster cancer treatment, an increase in immunisation rates, shorter stays in emergency departments and quick assessment and treatments when you are sick has been laid out today. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has revealed details of how the ambitious health targets the Government has set will be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Targeted supports to accelerate reading

    The coalition Government is delivering targeted and structured literacy supports to accelerate learning for struggling readers. From Term 1 2025, $33 million of funding for Reading Recovery and Early Literacy Support will be reprioritised to interventions which align with structured approaches to teaching. “Structured literacy will change the way children ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Survivors invited to Abuse in Care national apology

    With two months until the national apology to survivors of abuse in care, expressions of interest have opened for survivors wanting to attend. “The Prime Minister will deliver a national apology on Tuesday 12 November in Parliament. It will be a very significant day for survivors, their families, whānau and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Rangatahi inspire at Ngā Manu Kōrero final

    Ehara taku toa i te toa takitahi, engari he toa takitini kē - My success is not mine alone but is the from the strength of the many. Aotearoa New Zealand’s top young speakers are an inspiration for all New Zealanders to learn more about the depth and beauty conveyed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Driving structured literacy in schools

    The coalition Government is driving confidence in reading and writing in the first years of schooling. “From the first time children step into the classroom, we’re equipping them and teachers with the tools they need to be brilliant in literacy. “From 1 October, schools and kura with Years 0-3 will receive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Labour’s misleading information is disappointing

    Labour’s misinformation about firearms law is dangerous and disappointing, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee says.   “Labour and Ginny Andersen have repeatedly said over the past few days that the previous Labour Government completely banned semi-automatic firearms in 2019 and that the Coalition Government is planning to ‘reintroduce’ them.   ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Govt takes action on mpox response, widens access to vaccine

    The Government is taking immediate action on a number of steps around New Zealand’s response to mpox, including improving access to vaccine availability so people who need it can do so more easily, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti and Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. “Mpox is obviously a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Next steps agreed for Treaty Principles Bill

    Associate Justice Minister David Seymour says Cabinet has agreed to the next steps for the Treaty Principles Bill. “The Treaty Principles Bill provides an opportunity for Parliament, rather than the courts, to define the principles of the Treaty, including establishing that every person is equal before the law,” says Mr Seymour. “Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government unlocking potential of AI

    Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins today announced a programme to drive Artificial Intelligence (AI) uptake among New Zealand businesses. “The AI Activator will unlock the potential of AI for New Zealand businesses through a range of support, including access to AI research experts, technical assistance, AI tools and resources, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government releases Wairoa flood review findings

    The independent rapid review into the Wairoa flooding event on 26 June 2024 has been released, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced today. “We welcome the review’s findings and recommendations to strengthen Wairoa's resilience against future events,” Ms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Promoting faster payment times for government

    The Government is sending a clear message to central government agencies that they must prioritise paying invoices in a timely manner, Small Business and Manufacturing Minister Andrew Bayly says. Data released today promotes transparency by publishing the payment times of each central government agency. This data will be published quarterly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Acknowledgement to Kīngi Tuheitia speech

    E te māngai o te Whare Pāremata, kua riro māku te whakaputa i te waka ki waho moana. E te Pirimia tēnā koe.Mr Speaker, it is my privilege to take this adjournment kōrero forward.  Prime Minister – thank you for your leadership. Taupiri te maunga Waikato te awa Te Wherowhero ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Interim fix to GST adjustment rules to support businesses

    Inland Revenue can begin processing GST returns for businesses affected by a historic legislative drafting error, Revenue Minister Simon Watts says. “Inland Revenue has become aware of a legislative drafting error in the GST adjustment rules after changes were made in 2023 which were meant to simplify the process. This ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Strong uptake for cervical screening self-test

    More than 80 per cent of New Zealand women being tested have opted for a world-leading self-test for cervical screening since it became available a year ago. Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti and Associate Minister Casey Costello, in her responsibility for Women’s Health, say it’s fantastic to have such ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Ministry for Regulation’s first Strategic Intentions document sets ambitious direction

    Regulation Minister David Seymour welcomes the Ministry for Regulation’s first Strategic Intentions document, which sets out how the Ministry will carry out its work and deliver on its purpose. “I have set up the Ministry for Regulation with three tasks. One, to cut existing red tape with sector reviews. Two, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Māori Education Advisory Group established

    The Education Minister has established a Māori Education Ministerial Advisory Group made up of experienced practitioners to help improve outcomes for Māori learners. “This group will provide independent advice on all matters related to Māori education in both English medium and Māori medium settings. It will focus on the most impactful ways we can lift ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government welcomes findings of NZ Superannuation Fund review

    The Government has welcomed the findings of the recent statutory review into the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, Minister of Finance Nicola Willis says. The 5-yearly review, conducted on behalf of Treasury and tabled in Parliament today, found the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • First of five new Hercules aircraft takes flight

    Defence Minister Judith Collins today welcomed the first of five new C-130J-30 Hercules to arrive in New Zealand at a ceremony at the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s Base Auckland, Whenuapai. “This is an historic day for our New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) and our nation. The new Hercules fleet ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Have your say on suicide prevention

    Today, September 10 is World Suicide Prevention Day, a time to reflect on New Zealand’s confronting suicide statistics, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “Every death by suicide is a tragedy – a tragedy that affects far too many of our families and communities in New Zealand. We must do ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Action to grow the rural health workforce

    Scholarships awarded to 27 health care students is another positive step forward to boost the future rural health workforce, Associate Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “All New Zealanders deserve timely access to quality health care and this Government is committed to improving health outcomes, particularly for the one in five ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Pharmac delivering more for Kiwis following major funding boost

    Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour has welcomed the increased availability of medicines for Kiwis resulting from the Government’s increased investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the Government,” says Mr Seymour. “When our Government assumed office, New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Sport Minister congratulates NZ’s Paralympians

    Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop has congratulated New Zealand's Paralympic Team at the conclusion of the Paralympic Games in Paris.  “The NZ Paralympic Team's success in Paris included fantastic performances, personal best times, New Zealand records and Oceania records all being smashed - and of course, many Kiwis on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations

    A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report.  “It will have the mandate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Passport wait times back on-track

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New appointments to the FMA board

    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • District Court judges appointed

    Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand

    Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender

    New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease

    Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Improving access to finance for Kiwis

    5 September 2024  The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.  “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia

    As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer

    Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations.   “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More choice and competition in building products

    A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul

    On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • International tourism continuing to bounce back

    Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency

    The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says.  “That is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape

    The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services

    Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

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