Capitalism’s end game

In Aotearoa New Zealand we are facing a new crisis.

Not Covid, although the recent Auckland community case involving a young worker who did everything right and her manager who did everything wrong and will hopefully be prosecuted is another example of why we should not take the virus lightly.  Its ability to make its way through ports, attach itself to lift buttons or sneak through cold food storage shows how careful we have to be.

The crisis is the value of houses.  We, thanks to our Covid free status, have many well healed Aotearoeans coming home with nest eggs and wanting to buy real estate.  And we have historically low interest rates.  Right now you can splash out on a million dollar home in Tamaki Makaurau, borrow it all, rent it to someone at market rates, and then sit back and profit.

Of course if you were a young person this would be a very stupid idea.  But if you were a baby boomer with a house that you bought back in 1988 for $96,000 and which is now worth $1.5 million this would make perfect financial sense.  So the social order that we are seeing established in concrete is that most baby boomers own their own home, have enjoyed that inflation boost to their equity, and can then branch out into landlordism to increase their wealth and stop generation Xers and Yers from owning their own home.

And there is a further element to this.  Welcome to a land of the landed gentry where parents and grandparents who have been able to own real estate bequeath huge wealth to their kids and mokopuna.  Sure at a personal level this is great, but there is another group of kiwis who will permanently be renters and contributors to the wealth of others because of this.

This is why the Government needs to step in and introduce loan to value ratios for everyone but first home buyers.  When ASB Bank introduces a loan to value ratio of 30% for property investors before the Reserve Bank even requires it you know things are getting bad.

I would actually make it 60% for everyone but first home buyers.  Make it really difficult for people to enhance further an existing nest egg that should already be very, very healthy.

Jacinda Ardern realises this.  From Radio New Zealand:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she wants to ensure first home buyers can get into the market after it was revealed this morning that house prices have increased nearly 20 percent.

House prices have increased 19.8 percent year-on-year with the median now at $725,000.

Ardern this afternoon said figures show an increase in first-time buyers in the market since 2017, but that investors in the market had remained the same.

“Obviously we want to ensure our first home buyers can get into the market that is something that is top of mind for us…”

“It just cannot keep increasing at the rate that is,” she said about the rising prices.

And the Greens also realise this but want the Government to go further.  From Craig McCulloch at Radio New Zealand:

Greens co-leader James Shaw has lashed out at Labour over rising house prices, labelling it “irresponsible” for refusing to entertain a tax on capital gains.

Labour leveraged the housing crisis to great effect while in opposition, but prices have continued to soar since it took power.

In the past year alone, New Zealand’s median house price has rocketed, climbing almost 20 percent to reach a record high $725,000.

Speaking to RNZ, Shaw said the steep climb was being driven by the Covid-19 response and yet Labour had not done anything to mitigate it.

“It incenses me,” Shaw said.

“You’re getting these massive capital gains occurring as a result of the stimulus package and yet there’s no action from government to try recover any of that or to mitigate it in any way.”

This requires urgent action.  Dare I say it but Labour needs to reconsider the introduction of a capital gains tax.  LVRs for everyone but first home buyers need to be introduced.  And favourable tax treatment needs to be further reviewed.

And get on and build new houses.  Lots and lots of new houses, good quality affordable houses that people can raise families in, just like in the good old days.

Otherwise we are going to further enrich Australian banks and their shareholders by borrowing more and more money from them to buy the same houses from each other at higher and higher costs.  And we will be an interest rate increase away from devastation for the young who have had to borrow large amounts to buy modest houses in a white hot housing market.  And live in a country where there will be a clear class distinction between those who own land and those who do not.

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