“This shows the difficult position that Sturgeon is in. To win a second time around, the independence campaign needs to win over more Remain voters that voted to stay a part of the UK last time without alienating the Leave voters already in their camp.
They may successfully find a message that allows them to do this and there havenât yet been any polls released in the aftermath of this weekâs Article 50 ruling. But so far the polling has shown this aggressive anti-Brexit positioning has lost just as many voters as it has gained and, were a second referendum held, the final result wouldnât be much different.”
Wow… she’s a gutsy , to the point speaker on the issue, … seems like it divides into two basic issues, one being that there’s no way one country can determine the political and economic outcome by association / implication for another… that just wouldn’t be right , fair or democratic. And that’s going to force the next issue , which logically is one of independence. Very turbulent times for Scotland ahead.
England were on the verge of scottish financial independance when the GFC came along and they had to bail out RBS.
Scotland benefits from westminster derived education, welfare the NHS etc and england were on the positive side had scotland gone its own way at that point.
A complex and emotive issue in the hands of tories and the mess cameron/johnsons arrogance caused …..interesting times folks.
Not sure that the person responsible for the image of the UK countries and the flag has quite got it. If Scotland and Wales have their own flags shown (by the way, Wales voted, overall, for ‘leave’ in the Brexit vote along with England) why has England been represented by the Union Flag, not the St George’s Cross.
I await the torrent of Anglophobia that will probably be a response to this article on Scotland’s potential 2nd Independence referendum.
Wont be a second independence referendum – not without Westminister approval
This came up for the first referendum, the Scottish law lords, all said it would illegal with out House of Commons approval as it wasnt covered by devolution.
Every strategy she proposes , she loses and yet a referendum is another losing one. It wasnt even close last time like the Brexit vote was.
No way will Scotland vote for the euro, the limit on budget deficits etc that the EU demands.
Hello there DoF. Fancy seeing you pop up on this thread!
Did you watch the link or even read the text from the front page? You’re first two points are covered and are in no way controversial. It’s kind of why authority is being sought to enter into dialogue with Westminster.
Sturgeons strategy in the last UK General Election panned out really quite well, don’t you think?
The Euro. No decision has been made on currency options. That’ll be a fraught set of discussions, but yes, if the only option is to adopt the Euro upon independence then…Schauble or Hammond? Not a decision I’d like to be making.
She says ” Seek an outcome where Scotland remains within the single market”
She wants everything but what is possible. The EU has ruled out that out and only a clown could even think it would ever be on the table.
In the single market, but out of the Euro zone, and so it goes one.
As well one thing that I think could be a good idea , independent Scotland out of nato ( as Ireland is ), she wants to remain there as well. keep the monarchy when the SNP was founded as a republican group.
SNP is very cunning in appearing as limited change with independence, but of course they want more. Their model is the Irish Republic.
The Tories have got over their fascination with referendums, so they wont get another one.
of course the timing and details of the vote would be for Scotland, as it was last time.
Without Westminister action the SNP can kiss a binding referendum goodbye.
A Scottish Parliament bill to organise an independence referendum without the approval of Westminster would not be legal, the advocate general has warned.
Lord Wallace of Tankerness, a former deputy first minister, said such a vote could be challenged successfully in the courts.
He told BBC Scotland Holyrood does not have the power to create legislation which relates to the constitution. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-1663874
I get it, that She and SNP want another referendum. They have wanted that since they lost the last one. That was even before Brexit.
Scotland is not going to vote for the Euro, a hard border with England, and restrictions on movement to the UK.
To me an re-united Ireland will happen, and should happen, long before Scotland gets independence.
So I’m going to by-pass a lot of your unlinked smash and just point out this one thing.
The referendum isn’t about the SNP or Nicola Sturgeon and what they may want won’t necessarily be adopted by the campaign they will be but a part of. Just saying.
So, as an English citizen of the UK, who arguably benefits if Scotland stays in the union, I support them becoming independent if that’s genuinely what the Scottish people want.
The First Minister wants to go through the correct channels for a second referendum, (ie. she is asking for a vote in Holyrood to negotiate with Westminster for another referendum, so your objection that Holyrood can’t do this unilaterally is irrelevant, because that’s not what she’s trying to do) and Westminster will find it very hard to fight the argument that she has attempted to engage them constructively and that a second referendum is warranted due to the change in circumstances and bevy of broken promises that have happened since the first one. Scots were promised a system that was essentially federalist in nature, and got slightly less confiscation of their taxes instead, along with the UK government literally going to court to ensure they didn’t need Scotland’s (or Northern Ireland’s, nor even Wales’, which actually supported Brexit) agreement on their Brexit deal, despite the law saying they did need to do that, and the EU membership being integral to the No campaign’s successful argument in the first referendum. In short, the UK’s promises to Scotland have shown to not be worth the paper they were written on, they’ve had no regard to the principles on which the pro-union campaign won the first referendum, and Scotland has a highly persuasive argument to the public in favour of another referendum, which will hurt the UK government if they ignore it.
Scotland saying they wanted to remain in the single market would have been feasible with a “soft Brexit” strategy. That is, Nicola isn’t actually insisting on staying in the EU, but she is insisting on staying in the single market, which the UK government has now ruled out. She is saying there were acceptable methods to Brexit that Scotland would have not required a referendum, but that English politicians have ridden roughshod over that discussion and necessitated that Holyrood now needs to ask permission to get a referendum to leave, again. Good luck to Theresa May if she tries to Thatcher up and deny it, I look forward to the SNP basically owning every single Scottish constituency after that, which will make it increasingly hard for Westminster governments to succeed without making concessions to Scotland. (Besides, while a loss of face, Scottish independence basically guarantees Tory government forever in the remaining UK countries, given that Scots are the bulk of progressive constituencies in the UK)
What’s the difference between the EU and the single market?
Do you think that following Scottish independence, that NI and/or Wales would try and follow suit esp given the Tory nature of England? Or is that Tory nature spread across all the other countries evenly?
Essentially, it’s down to the obligation to follow EU mandates on issues other than free trade and immigration. The Single Market is the part of the EU that relates specifically to free trade. What people need to understand about the EU is that it’s not actually one thing with clear in-out boundaries, rather it’s a collection of treaties of which the UK is part of some and not others, and it can leave some of them without leaving all of them, so long as the other EU nations agree. (which is going to be tough, there is a very real mood among the EU to punish the UK for its Brexit vote to set an example to other countries considering following its example, such as France) New nations entering (which presumably includes Scotland) will need to agree to many MORE of the treaties than the UK had.
The United Kingdom could “soft Brexit” by remaining in the EU treaties relating to immigration (except Schengen, which the UK is already exempted from) and free trade, but exiting the EU proper and thus not having to follow most EU law, (they would presumably still be obliged to follow some parts of it to guarantee free trade, but nowhere near as much) and no longer being subject to decisions from EU courts. (which is actually rather horrifying, as they’ve been a critical stopgap in the UK acting like an authoritarian state in a number of different arenas, such as spying on their citizens)
That’s what Scotland wants to make Brexit work, and it’s what most experts were assuming Brexit would mean before the vote actually happened and before May became Prime Minister, because there was no real precedent for leaving a free trade deal once one was passed. Opting for “hard Brexit,” where the anti-immigration rhetoric of Leave campaigners is taken as the primary reason for the Brexit vote and thus leaving the EU treaties around freedom of movement is necessary, has been very controversial, especially given that it’s rather disputed that the anti-immigration rhetoric was why the Brexit vote succeeded. A lot of the remain criticism of the very idea of Brexit was that it was a choice between backing down on controlling immigration and acknowledging the reality that the only sensible Brexit was a soft Brexit, or plunging Britain into a recession as financial services leave for the EU proper as Britain loses the advantage of being a pro-corporate pro-America English-speaking gateway into the EU.
Wales is unlikely to split over Brexit itself, given that Wales actually voted Leave. It arguably might split if Irish re-unification and Scottish independence both succeed simply due to the perception that the Union is no longer viable and the age-old tension between Wales and England, (seriously, go there, and wait to tell them you’re a kiwi. Your reception will be significantly warmer once it’s revealed you’re not English, lol) but despite being very clear about Not Liking England, Wales actually does agree with England a lot more than Northern Ireland and Scotland do, and of the three, it has arguably benefitted the most from Union, and been bullied the least. I think it’s far more likely that May has set the UK down a path where it may end up the United Kingdom of England and Wales than that a Welsh split would succeed, but we should wait and see whether Indyref2 actually eventuates, and if it does whether it succeeds, (although odds look more likely now, it’s still not consistently polling as a winner yet, despite how badly the UK government has treated the Scottish one after Indyref1) and whether the Irish Republic calls for a border poll if it does. (the Irish Republic’s government has said Sinn Fein’s calls for one are premature, but that’s par for the course as basically whenever someone sneezes at Sinn Fein, they call for a border poll. A Republican call for a referendum is far more likely than a Northern Irish one- if there’s a Northern Irish referendum campaign that actually bumps the odds of success up a lot closer to Scottish independence) I don’t rate the possibility of Wales leaving as siginificant unless both Scotland and NI leave in a highly successful fashion, and even then I don’t know if it’s still a likelihood.
While Scottish independence is still no guarantee despite the UK immediately going back to ignoring its promises to Scotland in the wake of the first Indyref, it’s actually still more of a sure bet than Irish re-unification. There’s huge barriers to be crossed in terms of that happening, even though the UK’s mishandling of the EU situation has arguably opened the doors. Were I asked to bet at this point, I’d bet on independent Scotland post-brexit, but that Irish re-unification would fail at some point. Unlike Scottish independence, there is a legitimate risk of violence from either camp, too, as there are incredibly high feelings on both sides of the issue of Ireland’s relationship to the UK, and peace is still a relatively new phenomenon that could be disturbed by the prospect of re-unification on the unionist (pro-UK) side, or even be broken by hard feelings if moves toward re-unification fall through from catholic minorities in Northern Ireland, or United Irish nationalists.
I think Irish re-unification is only really on the menu if Scotland succeeds in independence, but I could be being a bit conservative there. I would bet on it failing even if IndyRef2 is pulled off without a hitch and Scotland is fast-tracked into the EU just because it’s not as straightforward a process, but the fact that people are seriously considering it should seriously worry politicians in England. If they were smart, they would be giving real concessions to both Scotland and Northern Ireland to preserve the union, perhaps even debating real federalisation of the UK government, (right now it acts like a country of countries that can tell its vassals what to do, instead of a country of states where there are clearly delineated local and federal authorities) and establishing a seperate English parliament to match the devolved administrations.
Interesting. FWIW… I was over in Ireland and England just after the Brexit vote and I met and had a very good conversation on Irish reunification with a member of the Fianna Fail party. It was his view that the possibility of Irish reunification is very real now that the subsidies that Westminster used to provide Northern Ireland have reduced significantly enough that Ireland can now afford to bring in the Northern Irish counties. Obviously there’s a great deal of “it depends” but it would’ve been unthinkable 20-30 years ago… amonng other things, Ireland literally couldn’t afford it.
An example he used of how Ireland and Northern Ireland are slowly aligning was the fact that anyone born in Northern Ireland (I believe since 2005) is now entitled to an Irish passport as a birthright.
That said, there are a still a significant number of people in Northern Ireland who are quite happy to remain part of the United Kingdom.
Similarly, many of the English people I spoke with while over there were more than comfortable with the prospect of Scottish independence and Northern Irish independence/reunification with Ireland. The overwhelming attitude was “if that’s what they want… then they should go for it”.
I realise my sample size was small… đ …but I know that the people I spoke with were both Conservative and Labour supporters… not one (in England) had been in favour of staying in the EU – all voted for Brexit. Primarily it was about self-determination and border control, the currency was a non-issue (of course) as the UK never joined the Euro.
Northern Ireland is going to be very interesting as well.
One of the fundamental parts of the Good Friday Peace Agreement is the right of “the people of Northern Ireland” to “identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both” (as well as their right to hold either or both British and/or Irish citizenship) was recognised.
How that will play out with the need for a hard border between the UK and the EU is a concern considering the very fragile peace that exists in Northern Ireland.
Any restriction placed on Republicans will in my view facture the peace.
There appears to be a narrow majority in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Island in favour of reunification. If Scotland successfully leaves the UK, i’d say it’s certain that within a decade the work required to undertake Irish unity will be in progress.
And given the terms of the Good Friday Peace Agreement how do you think Unionists would react to Northern Ireland becoming part of the Republic?
The majority of the past 50 years they have fought a civil war to ensure they stay part of the UK. Don’t you think they would resort to armed resistance rather than be subjected to Dublin rule?
Nobody knows, which is why it’s incredibly stupid that Theresa May is pushing ahead with a hard Brexit when there’s no indication that that’s even what the public wanted. There are ways to handle the negotiations with the EU that wouldn’t have resulted in fueling the northern independence movements within the UK, but May hasn’t chosen any of them.
It’s possible that Irish reunification could result. It’s likely that talks to do so would fail, but not impossible for them to succeed. And yes, it would violate the terms of the good friday agreement, and unionists who are newly in the minority right now would be upset. That’s degenerated to violence before, but we honestly don’t know if it would again. I hope someone’s doing some good reporting to look into that possibility.
There will probably be a General Election the Republic of Ireland soon that will bring Sinn Fein into government with Fianna Fail, both committed to an early Plebiscite.
A Border Plebiscite would require the consent of the Dublin and London governments.
Please, thats complete nonsense. A Sinn Fein – Fianna Fail government?
Currently they have a Fine Gail Coalition with ‘reverse’ support from Fianna Fail- – total enemies for the last 80 years, to keep Sinn Fein out of government. ( 3rd largest party)
Fianna Fail has committed to abstain on confidence and supply- a very Irish solution.
The politics dont work. Fianna fail and Fine Gail are broadly centre Right parties, Sinn Fein is definitely left wing
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Irish_government_formation
Dearest Duke of Url
Enda Kenny is going to retire next week after he comes back from St Patrick’s day in The White House etc. There will be a party vote for a new Fine Gael leader.
Fianna Fail are doing very well in opinion polls. Sinn Fein are almost non-toxic after their success in Stormont last week.
It is highly likely Fianna Fail will not support the new Fine Gael leader for Taoiseach. That will lead to an election.
Fianna Fail will won’t be able to form a govt with Fine Gael as the election campaign will be about the failure of their “reverse” support for Fine Gael.
Labour are @#$%ed.
Hence: Fianna Fail will form a Govt with Sinn Fein. (there is a chance that Sinn Fein will be bigger than Fine Gael!)
Not supporting Fine Gael is insufficient. They also need to not abstain. Is there any positive indication that they have changed their position on abstaining to negate the influence of Sinn Fein?
Fianna FĂĄil the Republican Party. That is their name and core identity.
The polls have
Fianna FĂĄil on 29%, Micheal Martin on 37%
Fine Gael on 28%, Enda Kenny on 31%
Sinn Fein on 21% , Gerry Adams on 29%
Labour on 4%,
Good stuff here. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll
Irish politics are based on the division of the 1922/23 Civil War. The difference between Fianna FĂĄil and Fine Gael is based on approaches to the existance of Norther Ireland. Left v right doesn’t come into it. Duke of URL knows nothing.
Fianna FĂĄil are the Natural Party of Power in Ireland. They will sell their mother to regain power. They had a very very painful loss of power after the GFC. The voters, correctly, blamed them for overspending and poor regulation prior to the GFC and for miss handling the banking collapse. They lost every seat in Dublin, bar one held by a guy dying of cancer!
Sinn Fein are now close to both of these Civil War parties in voter support and could easily overtake them. The success of Sinn Fein in the Stormont elections last week will give the a huge boost in the polls in the Republic. Arlene Foster, the arrogant DUP First Minister, not only made Sinn Fein voters come out in Northern Ireland. She would have reminded voters in the south why a Sinn Fein was needed.
Sinn Feins public faces in Dublin, Mart Lou McDonald and in Belfast, Michelle O’Neill, are not directly associated with the “Troubles” and don’t have the whiff of Semtex or gunpowder about them. They are pulling middle class vote. However their main strength are among the youth where they out-poll the other parties. The IRA cease fire is now 20 years old: that is ancient history to anyone under 35.
Back to your question.
Fianna FĂĄil would do a pact with the devil to get power without having to share with the sanctimonious Fine Gael. While they would prefer to be on their own they will have no problem with Sinn Fein. Neither would non-Fine Gael voters.
Sinn Fein Government ministers will be negotiating Brexit with Tory ministers very soon. Love it!!!!
I agree with the background you’ve provided, not that I closely follow Irish politics.
While I’d be very interested to see what a Sinn Fein coalition government would be like, I’m not sure I agree with your analysis that Fianna Fail is ready to share power with them. If they are, it could be a very interesting development and would make the case for Irish re-unification a lot stronger with a strong (but not outright majority) pro-reunification bloc in both Irelands.
From what I have read there is still a strong majority in Northern Ireland for staying in the UK. On this issue only the people of Northern Ireland get a say. What the citizens of the Republic think does not matter, and never has.
You’ve not been paying attention if you think that supporters of re-unification in Northern Ireland haven’t been boosted by the Brexit vote and the UK government’s mishandling of its implementation. It’s possible it only looks like a majority at the moment because re-unification is being treated in abstract, it’s possible the polling was wrong, and it’s possible that any move to reunification could fall through in negotiation between the two Irelands. But this is the most likely reunification has ever looked, and it’s because of May’s bungling.
Would be kind of hard, given they’re not an actual country. But not impossible. But London didn’t vote to Remain, 60% London did, so that would be tricky.
Cut the cable I say! There are advantages to decentralising.
“Sorry Draco â did they not vote in the same referendum as everybody else?”
yeah they did but they’re actually another country and a minority vote. Imagine if MÄori were allowed their own vote for the things that matter to them. I’m sure you would be against that too, but it’s not hard to see why it’s attractive to the people that it affects.
Who said it was “a once in a generation” referendum?
Who knew BREXIT was coming?
And does the will of the Scottish electorate (68% – 32% in favour of ‘Remain’) not count when judging ‘the will of the people’ that Sturgeon is apparently ignoring?
Data – before any campaigning the split is about 50/50. That means the previous levels of support for independence are solid and have grown. (Remember how so many supposedly knowledgeable commentators opined that peeps would just go home after the referendum and forget all about independence?) I do. đ
Please 50:50 isnt what it says. Thats just a losing number.
“There was an expectation that the polls would begin to show a shift towards independence after Brexit, but data from the polling website What Scotland Thinks shows that this hasn’t taken place.
The latest polling on Scottish independence suggests that the country would still vote in favour of remaining in the UK, with 52 per cent of Scots backing the union.
It implies that, if a referendum were today, the result wouldn’t be very different from the last vote in 2014, when 55.3 per cent voted against independence. Polling has consistently reflected this outcome across the last year.”
Polling before the vote underestimated the independence vote. but 10% difference in reality,
That may suggest a trend towards a more positive view for Scottish independence, and like last time, actual political debate did move the vote closer together, it was only saved by a bunch of now-broken promises. I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Indyref2 succeeding.
“They knew there was a brexit vote coming, and that leaving was a possibility.”
nonsense James.
ALL parties thought that Remain would win.
A major plank of “Better Together” campaign was that too leave the UK meant leaving the EU. That was repeated ad-nauseum by Labour and by the Tories.
And no, nobody seriously thought at the time of the independence referendum that Leave was a likelihood. Even the Leave campaigns were surprised that they won, hence Boris’ disastrous bid to be PM.
It wasn’t that much of a majority and many may have changed their minds since the Brexit vote.
Surely their will should be taken into account now?
That’s the thing about laws and democracy – they’re not static the way you RWNJs think they should be which really is the most basic reason as to why you RWNJs are always the worst in government. You always try to put things back the way they were despite the failure that lead to the change in the first place.
A national referendum was held in Scotland on 18 September 2014. Voters were asked to answer either “Yes” or “No” to the question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”55.3% of voters answered “No” and 44.7% answered “Yes”, with a voter turnout of 84.5%.
A second referendum seems appropriate given Brexit.
One of the things I liked about Sturgeon’s stance (have only seen the Q and A afterwards) is that she’s placing a lot of emphasis on it being an informed debate, so people need to be given all the information about the issues.
I reckon Sturgeon would lose a second referendum. It won’t be held at the time she wants it, which is next year. It will be held after Brexit is complete, or at least when it is fully negotiated. That way people will know the implications of their vote.
So why will she lose?
1. Most of Scotland’s trade is with England, as are the easy employment opportunities.
2. The oil has almost run out.
3. Joining the EU will take time.
4. It means having the Euro.
5. An independent Scotland without oil means big tax increases (or fewer govt services).
6. Several thousand naval ship building jobs go (the UK is about to start a 20 frigate build programme in Glasgow, but they will go south if there is an independent Scotland).
So all in all independence will come with a high cost. The Scots might go for it, but I reckon they won’t. It actually looks economically a lot riskier than in the last referendum.
Scotland’s GDP is US$233 billion, compared to New Zealand’s US$173 billion and their population is only about half a million more than us. They’ll be fine.
1) England would still trade with Scotland if they leave the Union and re-enter the EU.
2) And they’ll be dealing with that problem either way. At least if they exit, they’ll get the remainder of the oil revenue.
3) Yes, although there is definite EU support not only for Scottish re-entry, but also for fast-tracking the process given Scotland was previously a member. I’m surprised you didn’t also mention that Scotland would likely need to adopt the Schengen treaty to re-enter as well, which in my mind may be the bigger obstacle to an Independent Scotland in the EU.
4) Yes, it likely will, although compared to a Scottish pound that might actually be a better option. There are advantages and disadvantages to being part of the Euro, most of which are that it implies guaranteeing the debt of other EU countries, or suffering EU-wide recessions.
5) Scotland currently is likely a net recipient of funds from the overall UK, (nobody actually knows for sure) but it’s also subject to the fiscal decisions of far more conservative UK governments, ie. they’re likely to have a more sound economic policy if they leave. Most of the arguments that Scotland would be badly off rely on the assumptions that UK subsidy of Scottish spending would put them in an untenable position, but nobody even knows if such subsidy would continue post-Brexit, which is looking increasingly likely to crash the UK economy.
6) Sure, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be new opportunities. It’s a matter of whether Scotland feel they want to back themselves or continue on in the Union. There are fiscal challenges to leaving, but they may be offset by the ability to actually control Scotland’s own policy a lot more than before.
I reckon the last time you confidently predicted the outcome of a poll you reckoned Hillary Clinton would win the US election. No, wait, I don’t reckon that: it’s a fact.
And then there’s the fact that just the other day you had no clue how Kiwisaver savings can be accessed.
It’s interesting to see how the whatscotlandthinks polls seem to reflect indecision before Christmas, going into January and then change again. And the movements will be as much as 5 per cent which when it is so close is important.
And every quarter? they take 3 polls in the one month perhaps to test the strength of the results. Haven’t seen that before.
If I recall correctly, there was a marked difference across generational lines with older Scots more in favour of staying in the UK as opposed to younger Scots more in favour of independence.
The SNP is blessed with a lot of excellent talent.
Angus Robertson , their leader in the house of Commons, is the only effective Opposition Leader in the house of Commons. https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/841357081420664832
Peter Murrell, Nicola Sturgeon’s husband, is the CEO of the SNP, one of the most successful political parties around.
John Swinney, the Education minister, and previously the Finance Minister has a brilliant Strategic mind and is part of the “Kitchen Cabinet”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1m0B0jM_Mys
Alex Salmond, former leader and the Foreign affairs spokesperson has been compared by Bill Cash MP, to Charles Stuart Parnell, the greatest ever orator in the House of Commons. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaTxCH0SSoE
Shes totally disillusioned with parliamentary politics and wants to leave ( I dont blame her)
Are you sure she is your torch bearer ? being part of the SNP lobby fodder wouldnt be fun. As she seems to get along well with ‘old time labour Mps’
Because we have Winston in terms of successful nationalists, it’s simply that he’s a pro-Britain nationalist, rather than a pro-independence one.
The republicans are spread out in the liberal wings of various political parties in New Zealand, and the only one that pays them any serious attention is the Greens. Labour and National both say it’s “not yet time to have that debate,” because they don’t want to split their own parties over it.
As someone who did Hons papers in Pols specialising in EU politics, I can see there’s a lot of misinformation being peddled here. Scotland can, under its EU treaty obligations become fully independent of UK if, following a clear referendum and Scottish Parliamentary vote, there is mandate to do so. Similar provisions exist for Wales, Northern Ireland and England. As the Scottish vote on Brexit was unequivocally to stay in EU, Westminster cannot stop any independence vote. The 1701 Union was not a Parliamentary or Populous vote, but an imposed Union decided on under quite different circumstances, before the UN was conceived. Under Article 51 of UN any part of any country can, provided certain conditions are fulfilled, become independent and no-one can stop them. This time round I think an independent Scotland is a distinct probability. Also look for a re-union of Northern Ireland with Eire with that whole country staying in EU. That’ll leave just England and Wales exiting EU.
Under Article 51 of UN any part of any country can, provided certain conditions are fulfilled, become independent and no-one can stop them.
I think you’ll find that the Kurds disagree with that statement and people have certainly been implying that the Crimea couldn’t become an independent nation from the Ukraine.
Dear Skeptic
Ask you for your degree money back: there are some basic error in your post.
Dear o’dear!
Much as I’m a very strong supporter of Scottish independence and Irish Unity I can’t let you away with such inaccuracies.
No errors. Facts are facts are facts!!!! History is history is history!!! Don’t put up silly innocuous newspaper opinions without facts. First rule of varsity research – go to prime sources and ignore the shit. All my statements are prime source facts – UN Charter Article 51 – EU conventions and law from Brussels – 1701 Act of Union. Disprove any of it and I might give your comment credence – no proof or evidence – you’re full of shit.
I totally agree with the overall thesis of your post, but the pedant in me can’t let this slide. Our interpretation of history is always evolving and changing. It is not ever truly fixed or certain.
oh don’t be like that. Be nice, you will live longer.
“The Acts of Union were two Acts of Parliament: the Union with Scotland Act 1706 passed by the Parliament of England, and the Union with England Act passed in 1707 by the Parliament of Scotland. They put into effect the terms of the Treaty of Union that had been agreed on 22 July 1706, following negotiation between commissioners representing the parliaments of the two countries. By the two Acts, the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotlandâwhich at the time were separate states with separate legislatures, but with the same monarchâwere, in the words of the Treaty, “United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain”
That is its legal status. In reality a useless and greedy Scottish ruling class,(a parcel of rogues as Robbie Burns called them) were cornered by the English and voted against the will of their people to get off the hook of a financial wreck called the Darien Scheme.
read about it here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme
btw. The Irish Act of Unions in 1801 was a similarly corrupt affair. George Osborne’s ancestor, Lord somebodyorother, was one who was not corrupted and voted against the Union!
Article 51 is the self defence provision of the UN Charter. Perhaps you mean the de-colonisation provisions. These would not apply to Scotland (or Catalonia or Quebec for that matter).
Basically there are no UN provisions for the breakup of countries as such.
Of course it does happen. Sometimes by war (Bangla Desh, South Sudan and I guess Timor Leste, even if there is also a vote). Also by vote, (Czech Republic). Sometimes in a chaotic breakup (Yugoslavia).
The obvious analogy is the Czech Republic or Quebec. These were the obvious models used by the UK, and I guess will continue to be used.
So I imagine Nicola Sturgeon will get her second vote, agreed to by the UK Parliament, but only after Brexit. Sturgeon will reluctantly agree with that. So either late 2019 or early 2020.
Who will win? Well Bill and may have our views, but so what. They are just our views
I imagine it will be quite close, but I reckon it will be on less favourable grounds for the Scottish independents than last time. However, it is really difficult to assess how much emotion will rule the day .
Obviously Scotland can be independent. After all Scotland should be able to do as well as we do, and I reckon we do pretty well.
But apart from distance we probably have more going for us. Distance matters less than it used to. International shipping is now incredibly cheap, and will be so indefinitely. Airfares are low and are still going lower.
Basically there are no UN provisions for the breakup of countries as such.
Wrong – it’s guaranteed in the UN Charter Document that people have the right to self-determination and to choose their own government. So major a principle in fact that it’s the first one.
Does seem to get forgotten all the time though.
Of course it does happen. Sometimes by war (Bangla Desh, South Sudan and I guess Timor Leste, even if there is also a vote). Also by vote, (Czech Republic). Sometimes in a chaotic breakup (Yugoslavia).
And sometimes, when the UN forgets its founding document, and goes round giving land that belongs to one people to another for the sake of a wrong committed by yet a third.
Right, but “self-determination” is a pretty broad term, especially given the UN doesn’t actually take issue with regimes like China. It’s very difficult to argue that “self-determination” guarantees a right to unilateral secession, in fact, New Zealand has taken the position that Independence movements should always try a multilateral approach to get their independence first in relation to situations like Kosovo.
I’d actually be looking at 73b in Chapter XI rather than 51 for pro-democracy language, “to develop self-government, to take due account of the political aspirations of the peoples, and to assist them in the progressive development of their free political institutions, according to the particular circumstances of each territory and its peoples and their varying stages of advancement.” But even that doesn’t really guarantee secession movements the right to unilateral independence.
There’s also the fact that a lot of states believe in something called “territorial integrity,” which is an actual principle under international law, and basically means that you’re not allowed to leave an existing country without their permission. If you believe in unilateral secession, technically Western Australia is de jure already independent, because they passed a law saying so. Never mind that the UK denied it.
Yes, that was one of the points I made in that although we have nice sounding language that tells us that people really do have all sorts of rights we then ignore those rights and step around them with other words.
Scotland united politically with England in 1707 (and with Ireland in 1801). Political power in Scotland remains vested in the Westminster Parliament, which has devolved powers to Holyrood – the Holyrood government gets its authority from London (Westminster could, legally, abolish the Scottish Parliament any time it likes). Which means Scotland leaving the UK is certainly secession.
As for International Law, there’s such a thing as territorial integrity. Random provinces can’t just go splitting off at the drop of a hat because they dislike the central government. The Law isn’t forcing people to stay together, it just means that any secession has to be the result of bilateral negotiation, rather than one group of people declaring that they’re out.
Random provinces canât just go splitting off at the drop of a hat because they dislike the central government.
I don’t think that the Kurdish people would call themselves either random province or simply breaking off because they don’t like the central government. For them, the borders were enforced upon them by the European powers against their will.
The Law isnât forcing people to stay together
Yes it is because it’s telling them that they have to either accept that which they don’t want to accept or to move from their homes of several centuries which they also don’t want to do.
Which means that they are being forced against their will and against the UN Charter of Self-determination.
As for International Law, thereâs such a thing as territorial integrity.
But that’s just it – it’s not a question of is there such a thing but should there be such a thing?
And the answer to that latter question seems to me to be No there shouldn’t as it’s obviously not working.
Why should the rest of the world force Tibet to stay in China? Same goes for Taiwan.
Should Crimea be forced to stay as part of the Ukraine against their will especially considering that it was a political decision by the USSR BigWigs back in the 1950s and in which the Crimeans didn’t get a say?
Territorial integrity is fine against an invader but even that gets overlooked in the case of Palestine their Jewish invaders. But, again, that was the European countries forcing a policy against the wishes of the Palestinians.
Basically, we have all these injustices and we’re using the law that produced the injustices to defend those ongoing injustices.
It’s the law that needs to change so that those injustices can be addressed.
Not respecting territorial integrity is a recipe for anarchy. The Mongrel Mob could declare their HQ an independent republic.
You can have secession. That’s fine. The point is that it must be subject to *bilateral* agreement.
(Curiously, the biggest advocates of unilateral independence don’t tend to be Scottish, they tend to be American neo-Confederates out to demonise Lincoln).
Not respecting territorial integrity is a recipe for anarchy. The Mongrel Mob could declare their HQ an independent republic.
They could and within hours they’d be surrendering due to lack of water, food, waste disposal etcetera.
The Kurds, on the other hand, have a viable amount of land to support themselves.
You can have secession. Thatâs fine. The point is that it must be subject to *bilateral* agreement.
It should be but it should also start with the realisation that that populace and that area of land are going to break away. It shouldn’t be a unilateral stop to people who wish to break away from the country that they are now a part of.
A Scottish Parliament bill to organise an independence referendum without the approval of Westminster would not be legal, the advocate general has warned.
Lord Wallace of Tankerness, a former deputy first minister, said such a vote could be challenged successfully in the courts.
He told BBC Scotland Holyrood does not have the power to create legislation which relates to the constitution.
Just so others can get an idea of your other claims
This is Art 51 UN Charter
‘Article 51: Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.’
Article 51 (in chapter VII) of the UN charter relates to self-defense, not independence. Do you have the number wrong, or am I missing some detail in Arcticle 51 that relates to territorial integrity or something?
So Scotland wants independence because it does not agree with the BREXIT vote and cant see that the people who voted for BREXIT wanted the same independence from Europe.
Buzz from the Beehive The headline on a ministerial press statement curiously expresses the government’s position when it declares:Â Â Government shows further commitment to pay equity for healthcare workers. Is it not enough to declare just one commitment? Or is the government’s commitment to pay equity being declared sector by ...
There have been 53 New Zealand Parliaments so far. The 39th of them was elected in 1978. It was a parliament of 92 MPs, most of them men. The New Zealand Music Awards that year named John RowlesMale Vocalist of the Year and — after a short twelve months ...
Aotearoa has a cost of living crisis. And one of the major drivers of this crisis is the supermarket duopoly, who gouge every dollar they can out of us. Last year, the Commerce Commission found that the duopoly was in fact anti-competititve, giving the government social licence to fix the ...
Familiarity breeds consent. If you repeat the line âsix years of economic mis-managementâ about 10,000 times, it sounds like the received wisdom, whatever the evidence to the contrary. Yes, the global pandemic and the global surge in inflation that came in its wake occurred here as well â but if ...
Michael Bassett writes – Without so much as batting an eyelid, Chris Hipkins told an audience on Saturday that there had been âmore racismâ in this election campaign than ever before. And he blamed it on the opposition parties, National, Act and New Zealand First. In those ...
While the economy is not doing too badly in output terms, external circumstances are not favourable, and there is probably a sizeable group of households struggling because of rising interest rates.Brian Easton writes – Last weekâs announcement of a 0.9 percent increase in volume GDP for ...
“You can't really undo what happens during childhood”, said the director of the Dunedin longitudinal study. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR:Richie Poulton, the director of the world-leading Dunedin longitudinal study showing how devastating poverty in early life is, died yesterday. With his final words, he lamented the lack ...
This is a guest post from reader Peter N As many of us know, Auckland Transport and Waka Kotahi are well into progressing works on the northwestern interim âbuswayâ with services to kick off in just over a month from now on Sunday 12th November 2023. Some of the ...
Hi,Before we talk about weird schools people choose to send their kids to, a few things on my mind. I adored the Ask Me Anything we did last week. Thanks for taking part. I love answering your weird and nosy questions, even questions about beans.I am excited and scared as Mister ...
A National government would make spending cuts on a scale not seen since the 1990 â 96 Bolger government.That much was confirmed with the release of their Fiscal Plan on Friday.Government spending is currently high as a percentage of GDP — as high as it was during the Muldoon ...
Chris Hipkins down with Covid, at least for 5 days isolation, National continue to obfuscate, ACT continues to double-down on the poor and Winston⊠well, heâs being Winston really. Voters beware: this week could be even more infuriating than the last. No Party is what they used to be ...
A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 24, 2023 thru Sat, Sep 30, 2023. Story of the Week We’re not doomed yet’: climate scientist Michael Mann on our last chance to save human civilisationThe renowned US ...
On the 11th of April 1945 advancing US forces liberated the Nazi concentration camp of Buchenwald near Weimar in Germany. In the coming days, under the order of General Patton, a thousand nearby residents were forced to march to the camp to see the atrocities that had been committed in ...
Years and years ago, when Helen Clark was Prime Minister and John Key was gunning for her job, I had a conversation with a mate, a trader who knew John Key well enough to paint a helpful picture.It was many drinks ago so it’s not a complete one. But there’s ...
Completed reads for September: The Lost Continent, by C.J. Cutcliffe Hyne Flatland, by Edwin Abbott All Quiet on the Western Front, by Erich Maria Remarque The Country of the Blind, by H.G. Wells The Day of the Triffids, by John Wyndham A Tale of Two Cities, by Charles ...
Descending Into The Dark: The ideological cadres currently controlling both Labour and the Greens are forcing âjusticeâ, âparticipationâ and âdemocracyâ to make way for what is âappropriateâ and âresponsibleâ. But, where does that leave the people who, for most of their adult lives, have voted for left-wing parties, precisely to ...
ââBUT HE HASNâT GOT ANYTHING ON,â a little boy said âŠ.. âBut he hasnât got anything on!â the whole town cried out at last.âOn this optimistic note, Hans Christian Andersen brings his cautionary tale of âThe Emperorâs New Clothesâ to an end.Andersenâs childrenâs story was written nearly two centuries ago, ...
 Bryce Edwards writes – As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. Itâs therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – The heavily promoted narrative, which has ramped up over the last six years, is that Maori somehow have special vulnerabilities which arise from outside forces they cannot control; that contemporary society fails to meet their needs. They are not receptive to messages and ...
Not Labour: If youâre out to punish the government you once loved, then the last thing you need is to be shown evidence that the opposition parties are much, much worse. Chris Trotter writes –THE GREATEST VIRTUE of being the Opposition is not being the Government. Only very ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Labour presented a climate manifesto that aimed to claim the high ground on climate action vs National, ...
Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past two weeks.Friday 29Play it, ElvisElection Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t ...
Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past two weeks.Friday 29Play it, ElvisElection Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t ...
While the economy is not doing too badly in output terms, external circumstances are not favourable, and there is probably a sizeable group of households struggling because of rising interest rates.Last weekâs announcement of a 0.9 percent increase in volume GDP for the June quarter had the commentariat backing down ...
This week the International Energy Association released its Net Zero Roadmap, intended to guide us towards a liveable climate. The report demanded huge increases in renewable generation, no new gas or oil, and massive cuts to methane emissions. It was positive about our current path, but recommended that countries with ...
Buzz from the Beehive Oh, dear. We have nothing to report from the Beehive. At least, we have nothing to report from the governmentâs official website. But the drones have not gone silent. They are out on the election campaign trail, busy buzzing about this and that in the hope ...
Election Hell special!! This week’s quiz is a bumper edition featuring a few of the more popular questions from last weekend’s show, as well as a few we didn’t have time for. You’re welcome, etc. Let us press on, etc. 1. What did Christopher Luxon use to his advantage in ...
National unveiled its fiscal policy today, announcing all the usual things which business cares about and I don't. But it did finally tell us how National plans to pay for its handouts to landlords: by effectively cutting benefits: The biggest saving announced on Friday was $2b cut from the ...
Photo by Anna Ogiienko on UnsplashIt’s that time of the week for an ‘Ask Me Anything’ session for paying subscribers about the week that was for an hour, including:duelling fiscal plans from National and Labour;Labour cutting cycling spending while accusing National of being weak on climate;Research showing the need for ...
Welcome to Friday and the last one for September. This week in Greater Auckland On Monday, Matt highlighted at the latest with the City Rail Link. On Tuesday, Matt covered the interesting items from Auckland Transport’s latest board meeting agendas. On Thursday, a guest post from Darren Davis ...
Brian’s god spoke to him. He, for of course the Lord in Tamaki’s mind was a male god, with a mighty rod, and probably some black leathers. He, told Brian - “you must put a stop to all this love, hope, and kindness”. And it did please the Brian.He said ...
Labour is cutting spending on cycling infrastructure while still trying to claim the higher ground on climate. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Labour Government released a climate manifesto this week to try to claim the high ground against National, despite having ignored the Climate Commission’s advice to toughen ...
Not Labour: If youâre out to punish the government you once loved, then the last thing you need is to be shown evidence that the opposition parties are much, much worse.THE GREATEST VIRTUE of being the Opposition is not being the Government. Only very rarely is an opposition party elected ...
Open access notables "Net zero is only a distraction— we just have to end fossil fuel emissions." The latter is true but the former isn't, or not in the real world as it's likely to be in the immediate future. And "just" just doesn't enter into it; we don't have ...
IN THE CURRENT MIX of electoral alternatives, there is no longer a credible left-wing party. Not when âa credible left-wing partyâ is defined as: a class-oriented, mass-based, democratically-structured political organisation; dedicated to promoting ideas sharply critical of laissez-faire capitalism; and committed to advancing democratic, egalitarian and emancipatory ideals across the ...
It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
Labourâs Chris Hipkins came out firing, in the leadersâ debate on Newshubâs evening programme, and most of the pundits rated him the winner against Nationalâs Christopher Luxon. But will this make any difference when New Zealanders  start casting their ballots? The problem for Hipkins is that voters are all too ...
Buzz from the Beehive Not long after Point of Order published data which show the substantial number of New Zealanders (77%) who believe NZ is becoming more divided, government ministers were braying about a programme which distributes some money to “the public” and some to “Maori”. The ministers were dishing ...
The D&W analysisMichael Grimshaw writes –Â Given the apathy, disengagement, disillusionment, and all-round ennui of this yearâs general election, it was considered time to bring in those noted political operatives and spin doctors D&W, the long-established consultancy firm run by Emile Durkheim and Max Weber. Known for ...
Kissy kissy. Cartoon credit BoomSlang. The BFD. JC writes-Â Allow me to preface this contribution with the following statement: If I were asked to express a preference between a National/ACT coalition or a National/ACT/NZF coalition then it would be the former. This week Luxon declared his position, ...
This re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Andy Furillo was originally published by Capital & Main and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The California Legislature took a step last week that has the potential to accelerate the fight against climate ...
This is a cross post Adventures in Transitland by Darren Davis. I recently visited Brisbane and South East Queensland and came away both impressed while also pondering some key changes to make public transport even better in the region. Here goes with my take on things. A bit of ...
My daughter arrived home from the supermarket yesterday and she seemed a bit worried about something. It turned out she wanted to know if someone could get her bank number from a receipt.We wound the story back.She was in the store and there was a man there who was distressed, ...
New Zealand’s longest-running political roadshow rolled into Opotiki yesterday, with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters knowing another poll last night showed he would make it back to Parliament and National would need him and his party if they wanted to form a government. The Newshub Reid Research poll ...
Hi,As September draws to a close — I feel it’s probably time to do an Ask Me Anything. You know how it goes: If you have any burning questions, fire away in the comments and I will do my best to answer. You might have questions about Webworm, or podcast ...
The mediocrity who stands to be a Prime Minister has a litany.He uses it a bit like a Koru Lounge card. He will brandish it to say: these people are eligible. And more than that, too: These people are deserving.They have earned this policy.They have a right to this policy. What ...
Buzz from the BeehivePoint of Order has waited until now â 3.45pm – for todayâs officially posted government announcements. There have been none. The only addition to the news on the Beehiveâs website was posted later yesterday, after we had published our September 26 Buzz report. It came from ...
Alex Holland writes –Â In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, New Zealandâs government debt ...
Labour released its fiscal plan today, promising the same old, same old: "responsibility", balanced books, and of course no new taxes: "Labour will maintain income tax settings to provide consistency and certainty in these volatile times. Now is not the time for additional taxes or to promise billions of ...
The Facts has posted –Â Â Â Â KEY INSIGHTSOf New Zealanderâs polled: Social unity/division77%believe NZ is becoming more divided (42% âmuch moreâ + 35% âa little moreâ) 3%believe NZ is becoming less divided (1% âmuch lessâ + 2% âa little lessâ) ...
The centre-rightâs enthusiasm for forcing people off the benefit and into paid work is matched only by the enthusiasm (shared by Treasury and the Reserve Bank) for throwing people out of paid work to curb inflation, and achieve the optimal balance of workers to job seekers deemed to be desirable ...
New research shows that tenants in social housing - such as these Wellington apartments - are just as happy as home owners and much happier than private tenants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The election campaign took an ugly turn yesterday, and in completely the wrong direction. All three ...
If there’s one thing the mob loves more than keeping Māori in their place, more than getting tough on the gangs, maybe even more than tax cuts. It’s a good old round of beneficiary bashing.Are those meanies in the ACT party stealing your votes because they think David Seymour is ...
Labour kicks off the fiscal credibility battle today with the release of its fiscal plan. National is expected to follow, possibly as soon as Thursday, with its own plan, which may (or may not) address the large hole that the problems with its foreign buyers’ ban might open up. ...
While it may be unlikely to register in New Zealandâs general election, Britainâs PM Rishi Sunak has done something which might just be important in the long run. Heâs announced a far-reaching change in his Conservative governmentâs approach to environmental, and particularly net zero, policy. The starting point – ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Canada is in uproar after the exposure that its parliament on September 22 provided a standing ovation to a Nazi veteran who had been invited into the chamber to participate in the parliamentary welcome to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, a Ukrainian man who volunteered for service in ...
The big screen is a great place to lay out the ways of the salesman. He comes ready-made for Panto, ripe for lampooning.This is not to disparage that life. I have known many good people of that kind. But there is a type, brazen as all get out. The camera ...
The following is a message sent yesterday from lawyer Stephen Franks on behalf of the Free Speech Union. I donât like to interrupt first thing Monday morning, but we’ve just become aware of a case where we think immediate and overwhelming attention could help turn the tide. It involves someone ...
The right-wing message calendar is clearly reading "cruelty" today, because both National and NZ First have released beneficiary-bashing policies. National is promising a "traffic light" system to police and kick beneficiaries, which will no doubt be accompanied by arbitrary internal targets to classify people as "orange" or "red" to keep ...
Buzz from the Beehive One Labour plan â for 3000 more public homes by 2025 â is the most recent to be posted on the governmentâs official website. Another â a prime ministerial promise of more funding for Pharmac – has been released as a Labour Party press statement. Who ...
As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. Itâs therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that might arise. One of the key individuals of ...
Voters are deserting Labour in droves, despite Chris Hipkinsâ valiant rearguard action. So where are they heading? Clearly not all of them are going to vote National, which concedes that the outcome will be âcloseâ. To the Right of National, the ACT party just a few weeks ago  was ...
Accusations of racism by journalists and MPs are being called out.Graham Adams writes –Â Â With the election less than three weeks away, what co-governance means in practice â including in water management, education, planning law and local government â remains largely obscure. Which is hardly ...
As the centre-right has (finally!) been subjected to media interrogation, the polls are indicating that some voters may be starting to have second thoughts about the wisdom of giving National and ACT the power to govern alone. Thatâs why yesterdayâs Newshub/Reid Research poll had the National/ACT combo dropping to 60 ...
ANZ has increased its forecast for house inflation later this year on signs of growing momentum in the market ahead of the election. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR:National has campaigned against the Labour Government’s record on inflation and mortgage rates, but there’s now a growing chance the Reserve ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Katie Myers. This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Pittsburgh, in its founding, was blessed and cursed with two abundant natural resources: free-flowing rivers and a nearby coal seam. ...
Today the AT board meet again and once again I’ve taken a look at what’s on the agenda to find the most interesting items. Closed Agenda Interestingly when I first looked at the agendas this paper was there but at the time of writing this post it had been ...
Continuing my series on interesting electorates, today it’s West Coast-Tasman.A long thin electorate running down the northern half of the west coast of the South Island. Think sand flies, beautiful landscapes, lots of rain, Pike River, alternative lifestylers, whitebaiting, and the spiritual home of the Labour Party. A brief word ...
National leader Christopher Luxon yesterday morning conceded it and last night’s Newshub poll confirmed it; Winston Peters and NZ First are not only back but highly likely to be part of the next government. It is a remarkable comeback for a party that was tossed out of Parliament in ...
As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
Labour is in it for you. This election Kiwis will decide what kind of country they want New Zealand to be, who they trust to have their back, and how we can be better, together. This election matters. View our full Manifesto below. ...
The National Party's U-turn on water reform has left local councils high and dry and will drive up Kiwi's rates bills, Labour Party Local Government Spokesperson Kieran McAnulty says. ...
A re-elected Labour Party will continue to tackle discriminations still faced by members of the Rainbow community in areas ranging from surrogacy and adoption to blood donation. ...
Nationalâs fiscal plan has failed to fill the massive fiscal hole in its dodgy tax scheme, it will mean more cuts to public services, more children being put into poverty and an end to action on climate change. ...
New Zealand First Policy Announcement:Law and Order New Zealand First believes that keeping society safe should be the priority of law-and-order policies. Every New Zealander deserves to feel safe, secure, and have their person and property respected. That is why New Zealand First continues to fix the flaws in ...
In last nightâs leaders debate Labour Leader Chris Hipkins referred to a quote without giving any explanation of its content, which was about the âdisease of co-governanceâ that is perpetuated by the MÄori elite, and he said it was racist. Then, without even examining the content, National leader Christopher Luxon agreed with ...
In last nightâs leaders debate Labour Leader Chris Hipkins referred to a quote without giving any explanation of its content, which was about the âdisease of co-governanceâ that is perpetuated by the MÄori elite, and he said it was racist. Then, without even examining the content, National leader Christopher Luxon agreed with ...
After years of criticising the Government on law and order, National have embarrassed themselves by conceding they have no new ideas and instead copied Labourâs Police policy announced three weeks ago, Labour Police spokesperson Ginny Andersen says. ...
Labourâs fiscal plan will continue its focus on carefully managing the books while protecting critical public services like health and education and investing to deliver high wage jobs and a low carbon economy. ...
New Zealand First today is announcing a policy on adjusting the rules and restrictions around access to the Job Seeker Benefit.New Zealand Firstâs policy is to introduce a capped time-period for any person to access the Job Seeker Benefit during their lifetime. Any individual will have the ability to access the Job Seeker ...
New Zealand First today is announcing a policy on adjusting the rules and restrictions around access to the Job Seeker Benefit.New Zealand Firstâs policy is to introduce a capped time-period for any person to access the Job Seeker Benefit during their lifetime. Any individual will have the ability to access the Job Seeker ...
Nationalâs cuts to funding for beneficiaries will once again leave children and their parents with less, Spokesperson for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni said. ...
The Green Party will double the Best Start payment and make it available for every child under three years of age - and it will be paid for with a fair tax system. ...
Labour will fund more medicines for more New Zealanders by investing over $1 billion of new funding into Pharmac if re-elected, Chris Hipkins announced today. ...
Labour has just announced a policy to increase Pharmac funding by $1billion over four years to fund additional medicines.With the current Pharmac budget of $1.2billion per year and needing a further $213million, by Minister Verrallâs own admission, just to keep up with current costs - then this is nothing ...
Labour has just announced a policy to increase Pharmac funding by $1billion over four years to fund additional medicines.With the current Pharmac budget of $1.2billion per year and needing a further $213million, by Minister Verrallâs own admission, just to keep up with current costs - then this is nothing ...
This matter begins with the Pike River investigation being inadequate, inexplicably lengthy, and after millions of dollars, the evidence that should have been placed before the public still has not been. We have always believed that Pike River is a crime scene, and that a proper investigation would have come to that conclusion. Blue ...
This matter begins with the Pike River investigation being inadequate, inexplicably lengthy, and after millions of dollars, the evidence that should have been placed before the public still has not been. We have always believed that Pike River is a crime scene, and that a proper investigation would have come to that conclusion. Blue ...
New Zealand faces a stark choice this election â vote for Labour to continue to confront the climate emergency with eyes wide open or bury your head in the sand alongside Christopher Luxon. ...
Labour is supercharging its plan to solve the public housing shortfall created by National, promising another 6,000 homes on top of what has already been committed says Labour Housing spokesperson Dr Megan Woods. ...
Labour will back migrant working families by introducing a 10-year multiple-entry parentsâ and grandparentsâ Super Visa, and make good on the Dawn Raids apology by providing a one-off visa for overstayers who have been in the country ten years or more, Labourâs Immigration Spokesperson Andrew Little says. ...
The Green Party is today welcoming Labour coming to the table to ensure an amnesty for overstayers, but only the Greens will ensure immigration settings actually reflect the reality of people who have been failed by our immigration system. ...
The Green Party is calling on Auckland Council to do more to protect urban trees and housing developer Aedifice Property Group to restore and replant the native forest it cleared, and protect all the remaining trees on Ngahere Road in Pukekohe after a significant number of native trees were cut ...
Latest Police data shows monthly ram raids have hit a two-year low, laying waste to Christopher Luxonâs false claim that there are two ram raids a day says Labourâs Police Spokesperson Ginny Andersen. ...
Free and healthy school lunches will be here to stay if Labour is re-elected, guaranteeing food for our kids who need it most and significant cost saving for parents. ...
The next Labour Government will build a new hospital in Hawkeâs Bay, Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall announced. ...
The Green Party will keep up the fight to support exploited migrant workers, including pushing to end single employer visas, after the government picked up Green recommendations to improve immigration settings. ...
Green Party co leader James Shaw visited a home in Auckland today that has been upgraded with a wide range of energy improvements, similar to those that would be supported through the Green Partyâs Clean Power Payment. ...
The Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahutaâs presence in New York today at the United Nations General Assembly is a contempt of New Zealandâs âcaretaker governmentâ convention. Despite the long-standing caretaker convention, Minister Mahuta is today at the UN to sign a highly contentious âBiodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Agreementâ, delivering a ...
The Pre-Election Fiscal Update Changes EverythingWithin an hour of this speech there is going to be a debate between the political parties that the media, under MMP, still think are the only parties that matter in this campaign. Both of those parties are riddled with inexperience, as evidenced by ...
National and ACT's tax plans don't add up, and that means deep cuts to the public services New Zealanders rely on, says Labour Campaign Chair Megan Woods. ...
New Zealand will again contribute to the leadership of the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, with a senior New Zealand Defence Force officer returning as Interim Force Commander. Defence Minister Andrew Little and Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced the deployment of New Zealand ...
The Government has taken an important step in implementing the new resource management system, by issuing a draft National Planning Framework (NPF) document under the new legislation, Environment Minister David Parker said today. âThe NPF consolidates existing national direction, bringing together around 20 existing instruments including policy statements, standards, and ...
The Government welcomes the proposed pay equity settlement that will see significant pay increases for around 18,000 Te Whatu Ora Allied, Scientific, and Technical employees, if accepted said Health Minister Ayesha Verrall. The proposal reached between Te Whatu Ora, the New Zealand Public Service Association Te Pƫkenga Here Tikanga Mahi ...
The public EV charging network has received a significant boost with government co-funding announced today for over 100 EV chargers â with over 200 charging ports altogether â across New Zealand, and many planned to be up and running on key holiday routes by Christmas this year. Minister of Energy ...
Tuvalu is in the spotlight this week as communities across New Zealand celebrate Vaiaso o te Gagana Tuvalu â Tuvalu Language Week. âThe Government has a proven record of supporting Pacific communities and ensuring more of our languages are spoken, heard and celebrated,â Pacific Peoples Minister Barbara Edmonds said. âMany ...
Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the MÄori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 MÄori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. âWeâve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...
The Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...
The largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...
MÄori: Kua waitohua e Te WhÄnau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te WhÄnau a Apanui me te Karauna i tÄtahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i Ć rÄtou tÄhuhu kerÄme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mÄ rua ngÄ hapĆ« o roto mai o Te WhÄnau ...
Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. âWeâre delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
Tangi ngunguru ana ngÄ tai ki te wahapĆ« o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. TÄrehu ana ngÄ pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngÄ manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o TÄne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tĆ« ana ...
40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
Susie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today. Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...
The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. âAs a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielleâs wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawkeâs Bayâs Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. âThe Repco Supercars Championship is ...
The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. âThe New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,â Grant Robertson said. âItâs continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
The Government has accepted the Environment Courtâs recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealandâs largest freshwater springs, Te WaikoropupĆ« Springs (also known as PupĆ« Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today.  âTe WaikoropupĆ« Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
An export boost is supporting New Zealandâs economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. âThe economy is ...
The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the TairÄwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. âTe Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the WaipÄoa River ...
The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. âCyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,â Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. âBuilding on our earlier business support, this ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. âThis new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,â Andrew Little said. âThis Government ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. âAddressing historical pay ...
Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last weekâs earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. âWe are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,â Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
The Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...
The Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouthâs CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. âIt will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministersâ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealandâs regional counterparts. âAotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,â ...
The organisers of a high-profile leaders' election debate say they worked to the last minute to find another date and it's "extremely disappointing" it has proved to be in vain. ...
Labour and Nationalâs campaign chairs have come out swinging following the cancellation of an election debate between party leaders that was due to go ahead tomorrow Labour says National is chickening out after the party confirmed Christopher Luxon had no free evenings between now and the election to participate in The ...
The New Zealand Taxpayersâ Union is calling on New Zealand First to release costings for each of their policies citing fears that they could cost more than Labourâs election spending spree. When questioned by Jack Tame on TVNZâs Q + A yesterday ...
A leading advocacy group and philanthropic foundation have put pen to paper on a significant funding agreement for ongoing work towards universal dental in Aotearoa New Zealand. Clare Foundation is today announcing a major three-year funding agreement ...
Over the weekend The Press reportedmultiplestories about toxic culture, resignations and cashflow issues at Christchurchâs Court Theatre. Sam Brooks explains what this means for the theatre itself and theatre in NZ on the whole.What is the Court Theatre?The Court Theatre is the countryâs largest theatre company ...
A palate cleanser to top off a busy day in politics. Auckland Council announced that it has purchased 1.6 hectares of land for $12.37m on Hill Road to extend the Auckland Gardens. In a statement, mayor Wayne Brown said that a large land acquisition is a difficult time to make ...
Alongside the cost of living and crime, Jack Tame is emerging as a critical issue in election 2023.There is no better tool to compare pledges this election than Policy.nz. It is disappointing to see, however, as of the time of writing, at least one glaring omission: Jack Tame. As ...
The next planned showdown between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon in Christchurch appears to have been scrapped after no alternative date could be agreed to by the major parties. Labour said that while Hipkinsâ Covid diagnosis meant he could not participate in The Press debate tomorrow as planned, alternative dates ...
Details on the plan remain vague, with the party suggesting a new supermarket chain "could" be given loans or the government could help secure land for them. ...
National says its candidates and volunteers have faced threats from gang members, while ACT says such concerns should be dealt with quietly by police rather than in public. ...
Greenpeace is issuing a "please explain" to the Green Party after action on agricultural emissions was left off its list of policy priorities, released yesterday. "The dairy industry is New Zealandâs biggest polluter, responsible for driving ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Euan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin University Aside from humans, dingoes are Australiaâs largest land-based predator. They are arguably our most maligned, misunderstood, and mismanaged native species. But evidence suggests this iconic ...
Is this the most indecent produce ever to make it to novelty auction in NZ?Theyâre firm, fuzzy and ready to go. In their profile photo, the two excited kiwifruit are perfectly poised on what appears to be a white leather couch, showing off their best angles in a way ...
Grant Robertsonâs claim that there is a âholeâ in the funding as of a result of scraping Three Waters is nonsense on stilts. Taxpayersâ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, says: âGrant Robertson is trying to frame opponents of Three Waters ...
We have published some information about a performance audit we are carrying out to examine the effectiveness of government arrangements to address child poverty. Reducing child poverty is a priority for the government. Achieving the legislative ...
What are you going to be watching this week? We round up everything coming to streaming services this week, including Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, Apple TV+, ThreeNow, Neon and TVNZ+.The biggies Our Flag Means Death (season two on Neon from October 6) From Stewart Sowman-Lundâs story on why ...
Itâs Monday, October 2nd and welcome to The Spinoffâs election live updates. There are just 12 days to go! Iâm Stewart Sowman-Lund, on deck from Auckland. Get in touch with me on[email protected]Find more about the political parties at Policy.nz The agenda With Chris Hipkins out with ...
There are only 12 days until the 2023 New Zealand General Election â but you can start voting today! âChange never happens at the pace we think it should. It happens over years of people joining together, strategizing, sharing, and pulling all the ...
The Labour Partyâs accused National leader Christopher Luxon of âtaking advantage of Chris Hipkinsâs sicknessâ. In a statement, Labourâs campaign chair Megan Woods said that Luxon was trying to âslip outâ of an agreed debate in Christchurch that had been scheduled for tomorrow night. With Hipkins out of action with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas White, Senior lecturer, University of Sydney Shutterstock The brain is an evolutionary marvel. By shifting the control of sensing and behaviour to this central organ, animals (including us) are able to flexibly respond and flourish in unpredictable environments. One ...
Jubi News in Jayapura The Indonesia Art Movement has collaborated with the Monj Hen Wani Community and environmental advocates in Papua to organise the âArumbay Tonotwiyatâ â the Womenâs Forest Peopleâs Party. The event took place beneath the lush canopy of Enggros villageâs mangrove forest Abepura District, Jayapura City last ...
Seniors and Superannuation: · NZ First will keep the age of National Superannuation entitlement at 65 years and the current 66% of net average wage maintained, and not lowered by shifting the link to inflation. · NZ First will fund rates relief for ...
Wellington ( Monday, 2 October 2023 ) - The New Zealand Initiative welcomed todayâs announcement that a re-elected Labour government would ease the path for new grocers to enter the New Zealand market. But it also warned against subsidising entry. The ...
Yesterdayâs fiery Q&A interview with Winston Peters saw the New Zealand First leader give host Jack Tame a range of unusual nicknames, including that he was a âdirt merchantâ and âcorruptâ. But Nationalâs Christopher Luxon, who may be forced to work with Peters after October 14, wouldnât go into detail ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ann Kayis-Kumar, Associate Professor, UNSW Sydney ATO Why do I suddenly owe tax this year? This is one of the most Googled questions in Australia right now. And rightly so. Ever since Australiaâs transition to self-assessment for ...
2 October, 2023 An internal University of Auckland survey has once again confirmed concerns that the Free Speech Union has raised for several years: academic freedom is under fire in New Zealand. This is a serious issue, but our leaders have their ...
After testing positive yesterday for Covid-19, Chris Hipkins âis still feeling quite unwellâ, according to a spokesperson. âHeâs undertaking limited duties today, but aiming to pick up more things remotely from tomorrow, such as his morning media round.â Hipkins, who has come down with the virus for the second time, will ...
On Wednesday, the winner of the 2023 APRA Silver Scroll Award will be announced. Here, the five shortlisted nominees â Marlon Williams, Tiny Ruins, The Beths, UMO and Tom Scott â spread the love for each otherâs songs.Liz Stokes of The Beths on âFriday Night @ The Liquor ...
Responding to the Labour Partyâs announcement that they intend to subsidise grocery stores to try and enable competition in New Zealandâs grocery sector, Taxpayersâ Union Policy Adviser, James Ross, said: âThere is a lack of competition in New ...
The Zero Waste Network is ramping up calls for the next government to institute an immediate moratorium on incineration of mixed solid waste following a packed out community meeting in Te Awamutu where an incinerator is being proposed. âThere ...
âThe PMC Projectâ . . . a 2016 short documentary about the centre by then student journalist and Pacific Media Watch editor Alistar Kata.Pacific Media Watch An award-winning website with an archive of thousands of Pacific news reports, videos, images and research abstracts regarded as a pioneering initiative for ...
âThe PMC Projectâ . . . a 2016 short documentary about the centre by then student journalist and Pacific Media Watch editor Alistar Kata.Pacific Media Watch An award-winning website with an archive of thousands of Pacific news reports, videos, images and research abstracts regarded as a pioneering initiative for ...
New Zealand Police are once again showing a political bias in the lead-up to the election. A press release from the 28th of September titled 10,000th person signs up to the Firearms Registry was celebrating the minority of firearms license holders ...
A Labour-led government would support new supermarket retailers to enter the market, said consumer affairs spokesperson Duncan Webb in a press release. Citing how Sanitarium has removed Weet Bix from budget retailer The Warehouse, Webb said assissting potential new supermarket âcould include finance, making sure land is available, regulatory changes, ...
This election day, The Spinoff will once again be bringing you nothing but live pupdates until 7pm. In 2020, we showcased big dogs, small dogs, long dogs, short dogs, hairy dogs, happy dogs, nervy dogs, silly dogs, stylish dogs, sleeping dogs, pissing dogs and not-really-dog dogs exercising their democratic right â ...
Our two major partiesâ health spokespeople say they know how to create a more sustainable health system. Labourâs Ayesha Verrall and Nationalâs Shane Reti talk to Zahra Shahtahmasebi about the different paths they would walk.Ayesha Verrallâs health philosophy is to invest in keeping New Zealanders well and out of ...
With just 12 days until polling day, you can now cast your early vote in Election 2023. âVoting places will be open before election day in convenient locations including shopping areas, transport hubs, kura, marae, community halls and sports clubs, to make it easy for people to vote as they ...
Early voting has opened and weâre now less than two weeks out from election day. With the prime minister out of action until Friday with Covid-19, hereâs how the campaignâs looking this Monday. In Auckland today, there will be a Labour Party commerce announcement with Duncan Webb. Out of ...
Small crowds of mainly seniors have been gathering at public meetings in community halls to hear New Zealand First leader Winston Peters speak and ask him questions. ...
Standard advance voting for the 2023 general election starts today. We walk you through the process from start to finish. How do I vote? You go to a voting place during the voting period and tick a piece of paper. Simple! I am very literally-minded and have further questions. Fire ...
Surging demand has forced a government shared ownership scheme to close its doors to prospective borrowers, Newshubâs Zane Small reports. The KÄinga Ora-backed First Home Partner scheme, which offered a path to home ownership for prospective first home buyers with low deposits, is now fully subscribed. It has more than 410 ...
Christopher Luxon has pushed back against âconspiracy theory argumentsâ during a two-hour appearance on Newstalk ZBâs Mike Hosking breakfast. Hosking read out what he called a âstupidâ question from a listener about the â20-minute cityâ theory, using it to ask Luxon how much ânuttinessâ was out on the campaign trail. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra Shutterstock Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are in dire straits. With the market in a severe downturn, itâs safe to assume the NFT bubble has well and truly ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Strangio, Emeritus professor of politics, Monash University It was Robert Menzies, father of the modern Liberal Party, who famously remarked: âto get an affirmative vote from the Australian people on a referendum proposal is the labour of Herculesâ. Menzies knew ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tara Crandon, Psychologist and PhD Candidate, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute When we think of spring, we might imagine rebirth and renewal that comes with the warmer weather and longer days. Itâs usually a time to celebrate, flock to spring flower festivals ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Skarbek, CEO, Climateworks Centre This article is part of a series by The Conversation, Getting to Zero, examining Australiaâs energy transition. The marks of industry have forever changed the Hunter Valley in New South Wales, edged by the Blue Mountains ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judith Brett, Emeritus Professor of Politics, La Trobe University UnsplashThis article is part of a series by The Conversation, Getting to Zero, examining Australiaâs energy transition. When I was first asked to write an opening piece in The Conversationâs ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Penny Van Bergen, Head of School of Education and Professor of Educational Psychology, University of Wollongong Pixabay/Pexels With school and university exams looming, students will be thinking about how they can maximise their learning. Memory is a key part of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Harrington, Senior Lecturer in English and Cultural Studies, University of Canterbury SBS/Paramount+/Binge If youâve made your way through our September picks and are looking for something new, this monthâs streaming picks have something for everyone. There is a ...
A huge government-subsidised barge is being seen as a boon for mineral exports and coastal shipping The West Coastâs first bulk shipment of heavy mineral sands sets sail for Asia on October 3 marking a major milestone for the regionâs fledgling industry. The 26,000 tonnes of ore concentrate from Westland Mineral ...
With the third scheduled leadersâ debate up in the air as a result of Chris Hipkinsâ sudden Covid diagnosis, a senior National MP has suggested a possible alternative: could the deputy leaders debate? Hipkins and Christopher Luxon were meant to participate in The Press debate from Christchurch tomorrow night. Both ...
It really couldnât have come at a worse time, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoffâs morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Labour leader laid low by lurgy Thereâs no good time for a prime minister on the ...
The Labour Party is having to find new options on the campaign trail now that its leader Chris Hipkins is isolating with Covid-19. Follow the latest with RNZ's live blog. ...
The Wairarapa MP talks to Stewart Sowman-Lund about his commitment to the regions â and why he definitely doesnât want to be prime minister.Itâs a cold and blustery day in central Hawkeâs Bay, but Labour minister and Wairarapa MP Kieran McAnulty has still attracted a small group of prospective ...
The Wairarapa MP talks to Stewart Sowman-Lund about his commitment to the regions â and why he definitely doesnât want to be prime minister.Itâs a cold and blustery day in central Hawkeâs Bay, but Labour minister and Wairarapa MP Kieran McAnulty has still attracted a small group of prospective ...
As advance voting gets under way, the signs point to a significant drop in participation, reckons Toby Manhire.âIt seems to me from a distance,â said former Tory minister Rory Stewart, beginning a question to Chris Hipkins, âmaybe this is very unfair ââ Doubt it, Rory, carry on. âThat when ...
As advance voting gets under way, the signs point to a significant drop in participation, reckons Toby Manhire.âIt seems to me from a distance,â said former Tory minister Rory Stewart, beginning a question to Chris Hipkins, âmaybe this is very unfair ââ Doubt it, Rory, carry on. âThat when ...
Aaron Smale goes back to his grandmotherâs home town and finds a community weighed down by weather disasters and decisions of the past that have a region broken. A series on the slow destruction and devastating impact of the pine industry on Tairawhiti. You know youâre there when you catch a ...
A lobby group went looking for arts policies. It's still looking. Election 2023 has provided a chance for political parties to launch an exciting new arts policy that would provide a welcome boost to New Zealand writing. But the opportunity has withered on the vine. A lobby group with ...
Both the Silver Ferns and Black Ferns pulled in crowds and took home the spoils in one frenzied day in Hamilton. But is there room in Kiwi hearts for both? Usually playing two internationals in two rival codes in the same city on the same day would spell disaster for one â if ...
The Greens are in the dispiriting position of having a good election campaign but facing years again in opposition watching climate and social equity gains undone. They're pitching forward, regardless. Sporting metaphors have been thoroughly overworked this campaign, but forgive just one more: the Greens find themselves as the in-form player of a ...
Don't put those winter clothes away just because sunnier days are predicted â El Niño blows both hot and cold A New Zealand summer with potential cold snaps and lots of rain, coupled with sun and hot, record-breaking temperatures. What, come again? That's what's forecast for this summer â if the ...
Go Scotland.
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“This shows the difficult position that Sturgeon is in. To win a second time around, the independence campaign needs to win over more Remain voters that voted to stay a part of the UK last time without alienating the Leave voters already in their camp.
They may successfully find a message that allows them to do this and there havenât yet been any polls released in the aftermath of this weekâs Article 50 ruling. But so far the polling has shown this aggressive anti-Brexit positioning has lost just as many voters as it has gained and, were a second referendum held, the final result wouldnât be much different.”
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/18541/Indyref2%20skanky-01.png
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/
Wow… she’s a gutsy , to the point speaker on the issue, … seems like it divides into two basic issues, one being that there’s no way one country can determine the political and economic outcome by association / implication for another… that just wouldn’t be right , fair or democratic. And that’s going to force the next issue , which logically is one of independence. Very turbulent times for Scotland ahead.
Westeros lives!
England were on the verge of scottish financial independance when the GFC came along and they had to bail out RBS.
Scotland benefits from westminster derived education, welfare the NHS etc and england were on the positive side had scotland gone its own way at that point.
A complex and emotive issue in the hands of tories and the mess cameron/johnsons arrogance caused …..interesting times folks.
heh. Nice.
Not sure that the person responsible for the image of the UK countries and the flag has quite got it. If Scotland and Wales have their own flags shown (by the way, Wales voted, overall, for ‘leave’ in the Brexit vote along with England) why has England been represented by the Union Flag, not the St George’s Cross.
I await the torrent of Anglophobia that will probably be a response to this article on Scotland’s potential 2nd Independence referendum.
Wont be a second independence referendum – not without Westminister approval
This came up for the first referendum, the Scottish law lords, all said it would illegal with out House of Commons approval as it wasnt covered by devolution.
Every strategy she proposes , she loses and yet a referendum is another losing one. It wasnt even close last time like the Brexit vote was.
No way will Scotland vote for the euro, the limit on budget deficits etc that the EU demands.
Hello there DoF. Fancy seeing you pop up on this thread!
Did you watch the link or even read the text from the front page? You’re first two points are covered and are in no way controversial. It’s kind of why authority is being sought to enter into dialogue with Westminster.
Sturgeons strategy in the last UK General Election panned out really quite well, don’t you think?
The Euro. No decision has been made on currency options. That’ll be a fraught set of discussions, but yes, if the only option is to adopt the Euro upon independence then…Schauble or Hammond? Not a decision I’d like to be making.
She says ” Seek an outcome where Scotland remains within the single market”
She wants everything but what is possible. The EU has ruled out that out and only a clown could even think it would ever be on the table.
In the single market, but out of the Euro zone, and so it goes one.
As well one thing that I think could be a good idea , independent Scotland out of nato ( as Ireland is ), she wants to remain there as well. keep the monarchy when the SNP was founded as a republican group.
SNP is very cunning in appearing as limited change with independence, but of course they want more. Their model is the Irish Republic.
The Tories have got over their fascination with referendums, so they wont get another one.
of course the timing and details of the vote would be for Scotland, as it was last time.
Without Westminister action the SNP can kiss a binding referendum goodbye.
A Scottish Parliament bill to organise an independence referendum without the approval of Westminster would not be legal, the advocate general has warned.
Lord Wallace of Tankerness, a former deputy first minister, said such a vote could be challenged successfully in the courts.
He told BBC Scotland Holyrood does not have the power to create legislation which relates to the constitution.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-1663874
I get it, that She and SNP want another referendum. They have wanted that since they lost the last one. That was even before Brexit.
Scotland is not going to vote for the Euro, a hard border with England, and restrictions on movement to the UK.
To me an re-united Ireland will happen, and should happen, long before Scotland gets independence.
So I’m going to by-pass a lot of your unlinked smash and just point out this one thing.
The referendum isn’t about the SNP or Nicola Sturgeon and what they may want won’t necessarily be adopted by the campaign they will be but a part of. Just saying.
You’re an idiot.
So, as an English citizen of the UK, who arguably benefits if Scotland stays in the union, I support them becoming independent if that’s genuinely what the Scottish people want.
The First Minister wants to go through the correct channels for a second referendum, (ie. she is asking for a vote in Holyrood to negotiate with Westminster for another referendum, so your objection that Holyrood can’t do this unilaterally is irrelevant, because that’s not what she’s trying to do) and Westminster will find it very hard to fight the argument that she has attempted to engage them constructively and that a second referendum is warranted due to the change in circumstances and bevy of broken promises that have happened since the first one. Scots were promised a system that was essentially federalist in nature, and got slightly less confiscation of their taxes instead, along with the UK government literally going to court to ensure they didn’t need Scotland’s (or Northern Ireland’s, nor even Wales’, which actually supported Brexit) agreement on their Brexit deal, despite the law saying they did need to do that, and the EU membership being integral to the No campaign’s successful argument in the first referendum. In short, the UK’s promises to Scotland have shown to not be worth the paper they were written on, they’ve had no regard to the principles on which the pro-union campaign won the first referendum, and Scotland has a highly persuasive argument to the public in favour of another referendum, which will hurt the UK government if they ignore it.
Scotland saying they wanted to remain in the single market would have been feasible with a “soft Brexit” strategy. That is, Nicola isn’t actually insisting on staying in the EU, but she is insisting on staying in the single market, which the UK government has now ruled out. She is saying there were acceptable methods to Brexit that Scotland would have not required a referendum, but that English politicians have ridden roughshod over that discussion and necessitated that Holyrood now needs to ask permission to get a referendum to leave, again. Good luck to Theresa May if she tries to Thatcher up and deny it, I look forward to the SNP basically owning every single Scottish constituency after that, which will make it increasingly hard for Westminster governments to succeed without making concessions to Scotland. (Besides, while a loss of face, Scottish independence basically guarantees Tory government forever in the remaining UK countries, given that Scots are the bulk of progressive constituencies in the UK)
Thanks for that.
What’s the difference between the EU and the single market?
Do you think that following Scottish independence, that NI and/or Wales would try and follow suit esp given the Tory nature of England? Or is that Tory nature spread across all the other countries evenly?
Essentially, it’s down to the obligation to follow EU mandates on issues other than free trade and immigration. The Single Market is the part of the EU that relates specifically to free trade. What people need to understand about the EU is that it’s not actually one thing with clear in-out boundaries, rather it’s a collection of treaties of which the UK is part of some and not others, and it can leave some of them without leaving all of them, so long as the other EU nations agree. (which is going to be tough, there is a very real mood among the EU to punish the UK for its Brexit vote to set an example to other countries considering following its example, such as France) New nations entering (which presumably includes Scotland) will need to agree to many MORE of the treaties than the UK had.
The United Kingdom could “soft Brexit” by remaining in the EU treaties relating to immigration (except Schengen, which the UK is already exempted from) and free trade, but exiting the EU proper and thus not having to follow most EU law, (they would presumably still be obliged to follow some parts of it to guarantee free trade, but nowhere near as much) and no longer being subject to decisions from EU courts. (which is actually rather horrifying, as they’ve been a critical stopgap in the UK acting like an authoritarian state in a number of different arenas, such as spying on their citizens)
That’s what Scotland wants to make Brexit work, and it’s what most experts were assuming Brexit would mean before the vote actually happened and before May became Prime Minister, because there was no real precedent for leaving a free trade deal once one was passed. Opting for “hard Brexit,” where the anti-immigration rhetoric of Leave campaigners is taken as the primary reason for the Brexit vote and thus leaving the EU treaties around freedom of movement is necessary, has been very controversial, especially given that it’s rather disputed that the anti-immigration rhetoric was why the Brexit vote succeeded. A lot of the remain criticism of the very idea of Brexit was that it was a choice between backing down on controlling immigration and acknowledging the reality that the only sensible Brexit was a soft Brexit, or plunging Britain into a recession as financial services leave for the EU proper as Britain loses the advantage of being a pro-corporate pro-America English-speaking gateway into the EU.
Wales is unlikely to split over Brexit itself, given that Wales actually voted Leave. It arguably might split if Irish re-unification and Scottish independence both succeed simply due to the perception that the Union is no longer viable and the age-old tension between Wales and England, (seriously, go there, and wait to tell them you’re a kiwi. Your reception will be significantly warmer once it’s revealed you’re not English, lol) but despite being very clear about Not Liking England, Wales actually does agree with England a lot more than Northern Ireland and Scotland do, and of the three, it has arguably benefitted the most from Union, and been bullied the least. I think it’s far more likely that May has set the UK down a path where it may end up the United Kingdom of England and Wales than that a Welsh split would succeed, but we should wait and see whether Indyref2 actually eventuates, and if it does whether it succeeds, (although odds look more likely now, it’s still not consistently polling as a winner yet, despite how badly the UK government has treated the Scottish one after Indyref1) and whether the Irish Republic calls for a border poll if it does. (the Irish Republic’s government has said Sinn Fein’s calls for one are premature, but that’s par for the course as basically whenever someone sneezes at Sinn Fein, they call for a border poll. A Republican call for a referendum is far more likely than a Northern Irish one- if there’s a Northern Irish referendum campaign that actually bumps the odds of success up a lot closer to Scottish independence) I don’t rate the possibility of Wales leaving as siginificant unless both Scotland and NI leave in a highly successful fashion, and even then I don’t know if it’s still a likelihood.
While Scottish independence is still no guarantee despite the UK immediately going back to ignoring its promises to Scotland in the wake of the first Indyref, it’s actually still more of a sure bet than Irish re-unification. There’s huge barriers to be crossed in terms of that happening, even though the UK’s mishandling of the EU situation has arguably opened the doors. Were I asked to bet at this point, I’d bet on independent Scotland post-brexit, but that Irish re-unification would fail at some point. Unlike Scottish independence, there is a legitimate risk of violence from either camp, too, as there are incredibly high feelings on both sides of the issue of Ireland’s relationship to the UK, and peace is still a relatively new phenomenon that could be disturbed by the prospect of re-unification on the unionist (pro-UK) side, or even be broken by hard feelings if moves toward re-unification fall through from catholic minorities in Northern Ireland, or United Irish nationalists.
I think Irish re-unification is only really on the menu if Scotland succeeds in independence, but I could be being a bit conservative there. I would bet on it failing even if IndyRef2 is pulled off without a hitch and Scotland is fast-tracked into the EU just because it’s not as straightforward a process, but the fact that people are seriously considering it should seriously worry politicians in England. If they were smart, they would be giving real concessions to both Scotland and Northern Ireland to preserve the union, perhaps even debating real federalisation of the UK government, (right now it acts like a country of countries that can tell its vassals what to do, instead of a country of states where there are clearly delineated local and federal authorities) and establishing a seperate English parliament to match the devolved administrations.
Well, technically it’s one treaty now, but for anyone who joined prior to it being one treaty, it functions like it’s several. đ
Interesting. FWIW… I was over in Ireland and England just after the Brexit vote and I met and had a very good conversation on Irish reunification with a member of the Fianna Fail party. It was his view that the possibility of Irish reunification is very real now that the subsidies that Westminster used to provide Northern Ireland have reduced significantly enough that Ireland can now afford to bring in the Northern Irish counties. Obviously there’s a great deal of “it depends” but it would’ve been unthinkable 20-30 years ago… amonng other things, Ireland literally couldn’t afford it.
An example he used of how Ireland and Northern Ireland are slowly aligning was the fact that anyone born in Northern Ireland (I believe since 2005) is now entitled to an Irish passport as a birthright.
That said, there are a still a significant number of people in Northern Ireland who are quite happy to remain part of the United Kingdom.
Similarly, many of the English people I spoke with while over there were more than comfortable with the prospect of Scottish independence and Northern Irish independence/reunification with Ireland. The overwhelming attitude was “if that’s what they want… then they should go for it”.
I realise my sample size was small… đ …but I know that the people I spoke with were both Conservative and Labour supporters… not one (in England) had been in favour of staying in the EU – all voted for Brexit. Primarily it was about self-determination and border control, the currency was a non-issue (of course) as the UK never joined the Euro.
Northern Ireland is going to be very interesting as well.
One of the fundamental parts of the Good Friday Peace Agreement is the right of “the people of Northern Ireland” to “identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both” (as well as their right to hold either or both British and/or Irish citizenship) was recognised.
How that will play out with the need for a hard border between the UK and the EU is a concern considering the very fragile peace that exists in Northern Ireland.
Any restriction placed on Republicans will in my view facture the peace.
Can of worms opening indeed!
There appears to be a narrow majority in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Island in favour of reunification. If Scotland successfully leaves the UK, i’d say it’s certain that within a decade the work required to undertake Irish unity will be in progress.
And given the terms of the Good Friday Peace Agreement how do you think Unionists would react to Northern Ireland becoming part of the Republic?
The majority of the past 50 years they have fought a civil war to ensure they stay part of the UK. Don’t you think they would resort to armed resistance rather than be subjected to Dublin rule?
Nobody knows, which is why it’s incredibly stupid that Theresa May is pushing ahead with a hard Brexit when there’s no indication that that’s even what the public wanted. There are ways to handle the negotiations with the EU that wouldn’t have resulted in fueling the northern independence movements within the UK, but May hasn’t chosen any of them.
It’s possible that Irish reunification could result. It’s likely that talks to do so would fail, but not impossible for them to succeed. And yes, it would violate the terms of the good friday agreement, and unionists who are newly in the minority right now would be upset. That’s degenerated to violence before, but we honestly don’t know if it would again. I hope someone’s doing some good reporting to look into that possibility.
Game on.
There will probably be a General Election the Republic of Ireland soon that will bring Sinn Fein into government with Fianna Fail, both committed to an early Plebiscite.
A Border Plebiscite would require the consent of the Dublin and London governments.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-demands-border-poll-in-wake-of-sturgeons-call-for-second-scottish-independence-referendum-35526368.html
Please, thats complete nonsense. A Sinn Fein – Fianna Fail government?
Currently they have a Fine Gail Coalition with ‘reverse’ support from Fianna Fail- – total enemies for the last 80 years, to keep Sinn Fein out of government. ( 3rd largest party)
Fianna Fail has committed to abstain on confidence and supply- a very Irish solution.
The politics dont work. Fianna fail and Fine Gail are broadly centre Right parties, Sinn Fein is definitely left wing
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Irish_government_formation
Dearest Duke of Url
Enda Kenny is going to retire next week after he comes back from St Patrick’s day in The White House etc. There will be a party vote for a new Fine Gael leader.
Fianna Fail are doing very well in opinion polls. Sinn Fein are almost non-toxic after their success in Stormont last week.
It is highly likely Fianna Fail will not support the new Fine Gael leader for Taoiseach. That will lead to an election.
Fianna Fail will won’t be able to form a govt with Fine Gael as the election campaign will be about the failure of their “reverse” support for Fine Gael.
Labour are @#$%ed.
Hence: Fianna Fail will form a Govt with Sinn Fein. (there is a chance that Sinn Fein will be bigger than Fine Gael!)
QED.
Not supporting Fine Gael is insufficient. They also need to not abstain. Is there any positive indication that they have changed their position on abstaining to negate the influence of Sinn Fein?
Fianna FĂĄil the Republican Party. That is their name and core identity.
The polls have
Fianna FĂĄil on 29%, Micheal Martin on 37%
Fine Gael on 28%, Enda Kenny on 31%
Sinn Fein on 21% , Gerry Adams on 29%
Labour on 4%,
Good stuff here.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll
Irish politics are based on the division of the 1922/23 Civil War. The difference between Fianna FĂĄil and Fine Gael is based on approaches to the existance of Norther Ireland. Left v right doesn’t come into it. Duke of URL knows nothing.
Fianna FĂĄil are the Natural Party of Power in Ireland. They will sell their mother to regain power. They had a very very painful loss of power after the GFC. The voters, correctly, blamed them for overspending and poor regulation prior to the GFC and for miss handling the banking collapse. They lost every seat in Dublin, bar one held by a guy dying of cancer!
Sinn Fein are now close to both of these Civil War parties in voter support and could easily overtake them. The success of Sinn Fein in the Stormont elections last week will give the a huge boost in the polls in the Republic. Arlene Foster, the arrogant DUP First Minister, not only made Sinn Fein voters come out in Northern Ireland. She would have reminded voters in the south why a Sinn Fein was needed.
Sinn Feins public faces in Dublin, Mart Lou McDonald and in Belfast, Michelle O’Neill, are not directly associated with the “Troubles” and don’t have the whiff of Semtex or gunpowder about them. They are pulling middle class vote. However their main strength are among the youth where they out-poll the other parties. The IRA cease fire is now 20 years old: that is ancient history to anyone under 35.
Back to your question.
Fianna FĂĄil would do a pact with the devil to get power without having to share with the sanctimonious Fine Gael. While they would prefer to be on their own they will have no problem with Sinn Fein. Neither would non-Fine Gael voters.
Sinn Fein Government ministers will be negotiating Brexit with Tory ministers very soon. Love it!!!!
I agree with the background you’ve provided, not that I closely follow Irish politics.
While I’d be very interested to see what a Sinn Fein coalition government would be like, I’m not sure I agree with your analysis that Fianna Fail is ready to share power with them. If they are, it could be a very interesting development and would make the case for Irish re-unification a lot stronger with a strong (but not outright majority) pro-reunification bloc in both Irelands.
Fianna Fail see themselves more as centre-left, to Fine Gael’s centre-right.
Phil,
From what I have read there is still a strong majority in Northern Ireland for staying in the UK. On this issue only the people of Northern Ireland get a say. What the citizens of the Republic think does not matter, and never has.
Northern Island voted heavily against Brexit – I suspect it had a lot to do with it meaning building a wall across Ireland
Interesting piece here
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/northern-ireland-stormont-crisis-sinn-fein-dup-united-ireland-credible-inevitable-a7615756.html
And just a quick google search on united Ireland brings up plenty of others.
You’ve not been paying attention if you think that supporters of re-unification in Northern Ireland haven’t been boosted by the Brexit vote and the UK government’s mishandling of its implementation. It’s possible it only looks like a majority at the moment because re-unification is being treated in abstract, it’s possible the polling was wrong, and it’s possible that any move to reunification could fall through in negotiation between the two Irelands. But this is the most likely reunification has ever looked, and it’s because of May’s bungling.
So a “Once in a generation referendum” is held.
They knew there was a brexit vote coming, and that leaving was a possibility.
Yet they still voted to remain part of the UK.
Then Brexit vote happened and they dont like the result.
Rerun the “Once in a generation referendum” again looking for a different result.
Yet in polling since the brexit vote – the majority of scots still vote that they should not be a seperate country. (http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-held-tomorrow-how-would-you-vote-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum#line)
I doubt she will get an opportunity – and shes just another pain in the &&& trying to stop brexit against the will of the people.
Even if she does get it – data points to it providing the same answer.
Scotland voted to stay in the Euro. Leaving is against their will.
Sorry Draco – did they not vote in the same referendum as everybody else?
The winner was leave. And that was the will of the people.
But if Scotland leaves the UK then are they not allowed to then make their own decisions on being in the EU?
London voted to remain too . Should they break away to stay within EU ?
After all they have the region wide Mayor of London and London Assembly.
Would be kind of hard, given they’re not an actual country. But not impossible. But London didn’t vote to Remain, 60% London did, so that would be tricky.
Cut the cable I say! There are advantages to decentralising.
I don’t know… City of London seems to act as though they’re a law unto themselves…
In that case they should have voted for that before the brexit vote. As it is the majority want to stay one country.
Usual thing a group of sore losers.
“Sorry Draco â did they not vote in the same referendum as everybody else?”
yeah they did but they’re actually another country and a minority vote. Imagine if MÄori were allowed their own vote for the things that matter to them. I’m sure you would be against that too, but it’s not hard to see why it’s attractive to the people that it affects.
Who said it was “a once in a generation” referendum?
Who knew BREXIT was coming?
And does the will of the Scottish electorate (68% – 32% in favour of ‘Remain’) not count when judging ‘the will of the people’ that Sturgeon is apparently ignoring?
Data – before any campaigning the split is about 50/50. That means the previous levels of support for independence are solid and have grown. (Remember how so many supposedly knowledgeable commentators opined that peeps would just go home after the referendum and forget all about independence?) I do. đ
Please 50:50 isnt what it says. Thats just a losing number.
“There was an expectation that the polls would begin to show a shift towards independence after Brexit, but data from the polling website What Scotland Thinks shows that this hasn’t taken place.
The latest polling on Scottish independence suggests that the country would still vote in favour of remaining in the UK, with 52 per cent of Scots backing the union.
It implies that, if a referendum were today, the result wouldn’t be very different from the last vote in 2014, when 55.3 per cent voted against independence. Polling has consistently reflected this outcome across the last year.”
Polling before the vote underestimated the independence vote. but 10% difference in reality,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/scottish-independence-polls-say-nicola-sturgeons-bid-second/
Actually it was 51/49 after a 55/45 split.
That may suggest a trend towards a more positive view for Scottish independence, and like last time, actual political debate did move the vote closer together, it was only saved by a bunch of now-broken promises. I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Indyref2 succeeding.
Polling data link from “What Scotland Thinks”at 10.1.2 below. 50/50 split.
Yeah, I was referring to the fact that dukeofurl’s own source actually disagrees with itself over whether it’s a 52/48 or 51/49 split, lol.
Aye, I got that đ
“They knew there was a brexit vote coming, and that leaving was a possibility.”
nonsense James.
ALL parties thought that Remain would win.
A major plank of “Better Together” campaign was that too leave the UK meant leaving the EU. That was repeated ad-nauseum by Labour and by the Tories.
Me thinks you are being a bit disingenuous.
Are you seriously saying that they had no idea that remain was not a possibility?
I call bullshit on your nonsense claim.
You mean leave, presumably, not remain.
And no, nobody seriously thought at the time of the independence referendum that Leave was a likelihood. Even the Leave campaigns were surprised that they won, hence Boris’ disastrous bid to be PM.
It would be good if Scotland did leave the UK.
well – the majority of Scottish do not seem to think so – but I guess you know better.
It wasn’t that much of a majority and many may have changed their minds since the Brexit vote.
Surely their will should be taken into account now?
That’s the thing about laws and democracy – they’re not static the way you RWNJs think they should be which really is the most basic reason as to why you RWNJs are always the worst in government. You always try to put things back the way they were despite the failure that lead to the change in the first place.
A national referendum was held in Scotland on 18 September 2014. Voters were asked to answer either “Yes” or “No” to the question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”55.3% of voters answered “No” and 44.7% answered “Yes”, with a voter turnout of 84.5%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence
A second referendum seems appropriate given Brexit.
One of the things I liked about Sturgeon’s stance (have only seen the Q and A afterwards) is that she’s placing a lot of emphasis on it being an informed debate, so people need to be given all the information about the issues.
I reckon Sturgeon would lose a second referendum. It won’t be held at the time she wants it, which is next year. It will be held after Brexit is complete, or at least when it is fully negotiated. That way people will know the implications of their vote.
So why will she lose?
1. Most of Scotland’s trade is with England, as are the easy employment opportunities.
2. The oil has almost run out.
3. Joining the EU will take time.
4. It means having the Euro.
5. An independent Scotland without oil means big tax increases (or fewer govt services).
6. Several thousand naval ship building jobs go (the UK is about to start a 20 frigate build programme in Glasgow, but they will go south if there is an independent Scotland).
So all in all independence will come with a high cost. The Scots might go for it, but I reckon they won’t. It actually looks economically a lot riskier than in the last referendum.
Scotland’s GDP is US$233 billion, compared to New Zealand’s US$173 billion and their population is only about half a million more than us. They’ll be fine.
Well, trade with England would continue and there’s the possibility that companies would re-locate north of the border to get market access.
Oil is not a part of the equation.
Scotland is already a part of the EU and may not need to leave and re-join.
It may or may not mean adopting the Euro.
Oil was only ever something like 15% of GDP or whatever. A ‘nice to have’ but not crucial.
English government pulling contracts is purely speculative (as is a joint defence force)
But sure. I expect Project Fear to rise up and stumble forth…it’s worked so well on its previous outings afterall đ
“1. Most of Scotlandâs trade is with England, as are the easy employment opportunities.”
Why do you think an independent Scotland wouldn’t be able to trade with the UK or England?
1) England would still trade with Scotland if they leave the Union and re-enter the EU.
2) And they’ll be dealing with that problem either way. At least if they exit, they’ll get the remainder of the oil revenue.
3) Yes, although there is definite EU support not only for Scottish re-entry, but also for fast-tracking the process given Scotland was previously a member. I’m surprised you didn’t also mention that Scotland would likely need to adopt the Schengen treaty to re-enter as well, which in my mind may be the bigger obstacle to an Independent Scotland in the EU.
4) Yes, it likely will, although compared to a Scottish pound that might actually be a better option. There are advantages and disadvantages to being part of the Euro, most of which are that it implies guaranteeing the debt of other EU countries, or suffering EU-wide recessions.
5) Scotland currently is likely a net recipient of funds from the overall UK, (nobody actually knows for sure) but it’s also subject to the fiscal decisions of far more conservative UK governments, ie. they’re likely to have a more sound economic policy if they leave. Most of the arguments that Scotland would be badly off rely on the assumptions that UK subsidy of Scottish spending would put them in an untenable position, but nobody even knows if such subsidy would continue post-Brexit, which is looking increasingly likely to crash the UK economy.
6) Sure, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be new opportunities. It’s a matter of whether Scotland feel they want to back themselves or continue on in the Union. There are fiscal challenges to leaving, but they may be offset by the ability to actually control Scotland’s own policy a lot more than before.
I reckon the last time you confidently predicted the outcome of a poll you reckoned Hillary Clinton would win the US election. No, wait, I don’t reckon that: it’s a fact.
And then there’s the fact that just the other day you had no clue how Kiwisaver savings can be accessed.
I reckon you swallowed too many lies.
http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line
http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#table
It’s interesting to see how the whatscotlandthinks polls seem to reflect indecision before Christmas, going into January and then change again. And the movements will be as much as 5 per cent which when it is so close is important.
And every quarter? they take 3 polls in the one month perhaps to test the strength of the results. Haven’t seen that before.
If I recall correctly, there was a marked difference across generational lines with older Scots more in favour of staying in the UK as opposed to younger Scots more in favour of independence.
Never mind Sanders and Corbyn, where’s our Sturgeon?
Or Roza Salih
Or Mhairi Black
Or, I suspect, any number of others.
The SNP is blessed with a lot of excellent talent.
Angus Robertson , their leader in the house of Commons, is the only effective Opposition Leader in the house of Commons.
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/841357081420664832
Peter Murrell, Nicola Sturgeon’s husband, is the CEO of the SNP, one of the most successful political parties around.
John Swinney, the Education minister, and previously the Finance Minister has a brilliant Strategic mind and is part of the “Kitchen Cabinet”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1m0B0jM_Mys
Alex Salmond, former leader and the Foreign affairs spokesperson has been compared by Bill Cash MP, to Charles Stuart Parnell, the greatest ever orator in the House of Commons.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaTxCH0SSoE
Tommy Sheppard is also excellent Commons speaker and an interesting charachter. Heere is his maiden speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2wSGjjHXfQ
Their line up in both Holyrood and in Westminster is deep. These above are older than the average. They have talent for generations to come.
Mhairi Black ?
Shes totally disillusioned with parliamentary politics and wants to leave ( I dont blame her)
Are you sure she is your torch bearer ? being part of the SNP lobby fodder wouldnt be fun. As she seems to get along well with ‘old time labour Mps’
All, each and every SNP MP wants to leave Westminster.
SNP stands for Scottish National Party: i.e they want to be a sovereign state that does not send MPs to Westminster.
Mhairi Black said she was disillusioned with Westminster. She wants to be in Holyrood or Strasbourg parliaments.
In terms of nationalism, or republicanism?
Because we have Winston in terms of successful nationalists, it’s simply that he’s a pro-Britain nationalist, rather than a pro-independence one.
The republicans are spread out in the liberal wings of various political parties in New Zealand, and the only one that pays them any serious attention is the Greens. Labour and National both say it’s “not yet time to have that debate,” because they don’t want to split their own parties over it.
As someone who did Hons papers in Pols specialising in EU politics, I can see there’s a lot of misinformation being peddled here. Scotland can, under its EU treaty obligations become fully independent of UK if, following a clear referendum and Scottish Parliamentary vote, there is mandate to do so. Similar provisions exist for Wales, Northern Ireland and England. As the Scottish vote on Brexit was unequivocally to stay in EU, Westminster cannot stop any independence vote. The 1701 Union was not a Parliamentary or Populous vote, but an imposed Union decided on under quite different circumstances, before the UN was conceived. Under Article 51 of UN any part of any country can, provided certain conditions are fulfilled, become independent and no-one can stop them. This time round I think an independent Scotland is a distinct probability. Also look for a re-union of Northern Ireland with Eire with that whole country staying in EU. That’ll leave just England and Wales exiting EU.
I think you’ll find that the Kurds disagree with that statement and people have certainly been implying that the Crimea couldn’t become an independent nation from the Ukraine.
What part of “provided certain conditions are fulfilled” didn’t you understand?
Yes, it appears that a nation is only allowed to become ‘independent’ if the US allows it.
So, Palestine isn’t allowed to be recognised as an independent nation. Neither are the Kurds.
Crimea wasn’t allowed to because it was Russia rather than the US that accepted their independence.
Add to those South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia. Trans Nistria from Moldova
Dear Skeptic
Ask you for your degree money back: there are some basic error in your post.
Dear o’dear!
Much as I’m a very strong supporter of Scottish independence and Irish Unity I can’t let you away with such inaccuracies.
I suggest you update yourself at these links.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/
http://www.irishtimes.com/
http://sluggerotoole.com/
http://www.heraldscotland.com/
http://www.thenational.scot/
No errors. Facts are facts are facts!!!! History is history is history!!! Don’t put up silly innocuous newspaper opinions without facts. First rule of varsity research – go to prime sources and ignore the shit. All my statements are prime source facts – UN Charter Article 51 – EU conventions and law from Brussels – 1701 Act of Union. Disprove any of it and I might give your comment credence – no proof or evidence – you’re full of shit.
History is history is history!!!
I totally agree with the overall thesis of your post, but the pedant in me can’t let this slide. Our interpretation of history is always evolving and changing. It is not ever truly fixed or certain.
oh don’t be like that. Be nice, you will live longer.
“The Acts of Union were two Acts of Parliament: the Union with Scotland Act 1706 passed by the Parliament of England, and the Union with England Act passed in 1707 by the Parliament of Scotland. They put into effect the terms of the Treaty of Union that had been agreed on 22 July 1706, following negotiation between commissioners representing the parliaments of the two countries. By the two Acts, the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotlandâwhich at the time were separate states with separate legislatures, but with the same monarchâwere, in the words of the Treaty, “United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain”
That is its legal status. In reality a useless and greedy Scottish ruling class,(a parcel of rogues as Robbie Burns called them) were cornered by the English and voted against the will of their people to get off the hook of a financial wreck called the Darien Scheme.
read about it here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme
btw. The Irish Act of Unions in 1801 was a similarly corrupt affair. George Osborne’s ancestor, Lord somebodyorother, was one who was not corrupted and voted against the Union!
And that proves what ?
Which 1701 Act of Union? Oh, you mean the 1707 Acts of Union.
Article 51 is the self defence provision of the UN Charter. Perhaps you mean the de-colonisation provisions. These would not apply to Scotland (or Catalonia or Quebec for that matter).
Basically there are no UN provisions for the breakup of countries as such.
Of course it does happen. Sometimes by war (Bangla Desh, South Sudan and I guess Timor Leste, even if there is also a vote). Also by vote, (Czech Republic). Sometimes in a chaotic breakup (Yugoslavia).
The obvious analogy is the Czech Republic or Quebec. These were the obvious models used by the UK, and I guess will continue to be used.
So I imagine Nicola Sturgeon will get her second vote, agreed to by the UK Parliament, but only after Brexit. Sturgeon will reluctantly agree with that. So either late 2019 or early 2020.
Who will win? Well Bill and may have our views, but so what. They are just our views
I imagine it will be quite close, but I reckon it will be on less favourable grounds for the Scottish independents than last time. However, it is really difficult to assess how much emotion will rule the day .
Obviously Scotland can be independent. After all Scotland should be able to do as well as we do, and I reckon we do pretty well.
But apart from distance we probably have more going for us. Distance matters less than it used to. International shipping is now incredibly cheap, and will be so indefinitely. Airfares are low and are still going lower.
Wrong – it’s guaranteed in the UN Charter Document that people have the right to self-determination and to choose their own government. So major a principle in fact that it’s the first one.
Does seem to get forgotten all the time though.
And sometimes, when the UN forgets its founding document, and goes round giving land that belongs to one people to another for the sake of a wrong committed by yet a third.
Right, but “self-determination” is a pretty broad term, especially given the UN doesn’t actually take issue with regimes like China. It’s very difficult to argue that “self-determination” guarantees a right to unilateral secession, in fact, New Zealand has taken the position that Independence movements should always try a multilateral approach to get their independence first in relation to situations like Kosovo.
I’d actually be looking at 73b in Chapter XI rather than 51 for pro-democracy language, “to develop self-government, to take due account of the political aspirations of the peoples, and to assist them in the progressive development of their free political institutions, according to the particular circumstances of each territory and its peoples and their varying stages of advancement.” But even that doesn’t really guarantee secession movements the right to unilateral independence.
There’s also the fact that a lot of states believe in something called “territorial integrity,” which is an actual principle under international law, and basically means that you’re not allowed to leave an existing country without their permission. If you believe in unilateral secession, technically Western Australia is de jure already independent, because they passed a law saying so. Never mind that the UK denied it.
Yes, that was one of the points I made in that although we have nice sounding language that tells us that people really do have all sorts of rights we then ignore those rights and step around them with other words.
We have case law that is quite explicit:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_re_Secession_of_Quebec
International Law does not allow for unilateral secession. Self-determination must take place within the framework of existing states.
Scotland is not a colony, which means it too does not have a right to secession, and must negotiate with Westminster,
Correct – it’s its own country and always has been which means that if it leaves the UK it won’t be seceding.
Then international law is wrong and needs to be changed. You can’t force nations together who do not want to be together.
Scotland united politically with England in 1707 (and with Ireland in 1801). Political power in Scotland remains vested in the Westminster Parliament, which has devolved powers to Holyrood – the Holyrood government gets its authority from London (Westminster could, legally, abolish the Scottish Parliament any time it likes). Which means Scotland leaving the UK is certainly secession.
As for International Law, there’s such a thing as territorial integrity. Random provinces can’t just go splitting off at the drop of a hat because they dislike the central government. The Law isn’t forcing people to stay together, it just means that any secession has to be the result of bilateral negotiation, rather than one group of people declaring that they’re out.
I don’t think that the Kurdish people would call themselves either random province or simply breaking off because they don’t like the central government. For them, the borders were enforced upon them by the European powers against their will.
Yes it is because it’s telling them that they have to either accept that which they don’t want to accept or to move from their homes of several centuries which they also don’t want to do.
Which means that they are being forced against their will and against the UN Charter of Self-determination.
But that’s just it – it’s not a question of is there such a thing but should there be such a thing?
And the answer to that latter question seems to me to be No there shouldn’t as it’s obviously not working.
Why should the rest of the world force Tibet to stay in China? Same goes for Taiwan.
Should Crimea be forced to stay as part of the Ukraine against their will especially considering that it was a political decision by the USSR BigWigs back in the 1950s and in which the Crimeans didn’t get a say?
Territorial integrity is fine against an invader but even that gets overlooked in the case of Palestine their Jewish invaders. But, again, that was the European countries forcing a policy against the wishes of the Palestinians.
Basically, we have all these injustices and we’re using the law that produced the injustices to defend those ongoing injustices.
It’s the law that needs to change so that those injustices can be addressed.
Not respecting territorial integrity is a recipe for anarchy. The Mongrel Mob could declare their HQ an independent republic.
You can have secession. That’s fine. The point is that it must be subject to *bilateral* agreement.
(Curiously, the biggest advocates of unilateral independence don’t tend to be Scottish, they tend to be American neo-Confederates out to demonise Lincoln).
They could and within hours they’d be surrendering due to lack of water, food, waste disposal etcetera.
The Kurds, on the other hand, have a viable amount of land to support themselves.
It should be but it should also start with the realisation that that populace and that area of land are going to break away. It shouldn’t be a unilateral stop to people who wish to break away from the country that they are now a part of.
Trouble is the Law Lords in Scotland dont agree. Perhaps you should ask for a remark of your Hons papers in european politics.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-16638746
A Scottish Parliament bill to organise an independence referendum without the approval of Westminster would not be legal, the advocate general has warned.
Lord Wallace of Tankerness, a former deputy first minister, said such a vote could be challenged successfully in the courts.
He told BBC Scotland Holyrood does not have the power to create legislation which relates to the constitution.
Just so others can get an idea of your other claims
This is Art 51 UN Charter
‘Article 51: Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.’
Article 51 (in chapter VII) of the UN charter relates to self-defense, not independence. Do you have the number wrong, or am I missing some detail in Arcticle 51 that relates to territorial integrity or something?
So Scotland wants independence because it does not agree with the BREXIT vote and cant see that the people who voted for BREXIT wanted the same independence from Europe.
Its a paradox.