Written By: - Date published: 4:02 pm, September 25th, 2017 - 45 comments
“Its not going to be a comfortable term. But it will probably be an exciting one.”
Written By: - Date published: 2:43 pm, September 25th, 2017 - 40 comments
The papers are full of the expected establishment hysteria today, trying to paint the election as a done deal for the Nats (I wonder what Peters will make of that?). Professor Richard Shaw: “Nobody’s won the election yet. The people who won the election are the people who form the government.”
Written By: - Date published: 11:55 am, September 24th, 2017 - 153 comments
Some post election thoughts on what James Shaw said last night, what the post-election options are, and that given the Left got a possible reprieve not an outright win, what are we going to do next?
Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, September 22nd, 2017 - 101 comments
On current polling the next government could be Labour + Green + NZF. That would annoy a lot of Nats if they have more votes than Labour alone, but that’s how MMP works. English lied about this in the last debate, but apparently has since walked it back.
Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 15th, 2017 - 56 comments
Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.
Written By: - Date published: 4:09 pm, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments
Matthew Whitehead on MMP and the threshold, along with some commentary on the current polling situation.
Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, July 31st, 2017 - 114 comments
With all the speculation about polls, it’s time to have a discussion about polling and the cold, hard facts around it. Is it good news for the left?
Written By: - Date published: 12:02 pm, July 26th, 2017 - 80 comments
Without a cup of tea in sight National has announced that it will asking supporters to vote for Act leader David Seymour in Epsom and United Future leader Peter Dunne in Ohariu.
Written By: - Date published: 7:24 am, March 27th, 2017 - 73 comments
Marama Fox opens the way for the Māori Party to work with Labour and the Greens.
Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, March 4th, 2017 - 22 comments
2017 will be New Zealand’s eighth election under MMP, over 22 years. With very strong democratically elected governments appearing right across the world digging in for the long term, it’s useful to take a moment for MMP.
Written By: - Date published: 5:51 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 54 comments
The agreement between the Mana Movement and the Māori Party.
Written By: - Date published: 7:49 am, January 26th, 2017 - 103 comments
Greg Presland has been daft enough put his hand up for Labour candidate in New Lynn. That would be unfortunate for this site. But my advice for Labour and New Lynn is to grab him. Media say that the leading candidates are him and Deborah Russell. Regardless of a her competence, a non-Auckland resident is a big ask in the era of MMP seats.
Written By: - Date published: 9:08 am, September 30th, 2016 - 139 comments
Don Brash and a group of other predominately privileged white males are complaining that Maori may also be receiving some privilege.
Written By: - Date published: 11:12 am, May 12th, 2016 - 20 comments
A post to illustrate how fixed term parliaments work…off the back of some really woeful reportage.
Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, March 20th, 2016 - 139 comments
Recent polling makes it clear that neither National or Labour can win power without the support of NZ First. So should the left be worried that Winston Peters will take his party back over to the blue team?
Written By: - Date published: 7:37 am, July 18th, 2015 - 195 comments
It was reported yesterday that “Labour would retain 90-day trial periods, but make them fairer”. Despite last minute claims to the contrary on Twitter, I think that this is probably correct.
Written By: - Date published: 3:47 pm, April 19th, 2015 - 48 comments
The Greens have closed their nominations for male co-leader, and are running a number of provincial meetings. I went to the second one in Auckland. The biggest issue for the Greens now after cracking the 10% electoral support in 2011 is that they didn’t grow their vote in 2014, and remain well below polling. Part of that is getting their public face right.
Written By: - Date published: 3:22 pm, March 30th, 2015 - 25 comments
Make a submission about how our voting system should be improved.
Written By: - Date published: 10:38 pm, March 28th, 2015 - 25 comments
Paddy Gower and Duncan Garner don’t understand our electoral system: “that’s MMP”. By-elections are pure First Past the Post – and that’s why Andrew Little didn’t need to do a deal, and Northland doesn’t stink like Epsom.
Written By: - Date published: 11:10 am, March 9th, 2015 - 125 comments
Despite Mr Gower’s excitable tendencies, Andrew Little’s comments that Northland voters may wish to vote to send a signal to the government is not a “dirty deal”.
Written By: - Date published: 3:18 pm, September 22nd, 2014 - 165 comments
No Right Turn points out the underlying truth of voting in an MMP environment. For the party electorate seats don’t matter much. Running electorate only campaigns are not productive. He is wrong in ascribing them no value. They provide a base for campaigning.
Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, September 8th, 2014 - 112 comments
The choice for NZ voters is becoming clearer in the last days of the 2014 election. The irony is that after John Key’s scaremongering, our options are a three-headed coalition of natural allies versus a five-or-six headed hydra of extremists and sworn enemies.
Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, August 11th, 2014 - 82 comments
It seems like every time Labour (or the Greens) announce a policy the first question (after “what does John Key think about this?”) is “But the Greens (or Labour) have a different policy to the one you just announced! How can you possibly work together in government?”
Written By: - Date published: 9:38 am, July 30th, 2014 - 94 comments
Key’s promised to do his best to bring in ACT and UnitedHairdo. Last election this brought us the likes of Charter Schools – unmentioned by any party during the campaign. What policies will National foist upon us through this outsourcing deal this time?
Written By: - Date published: 4:32 pm, July 29th, 2014 - 31 comments
Peter Dunne has been thrown the lifeline he has been begging for – National voters have been given the nod by Key to keep him on. One has to ask why would they bother – I can’t see him going back as a Minister after so many stuff ups and a resignation that leaves too many questions unanswered. Ohariu has a much better option in Labour’s Ginny Andersen – if she’d been there a truly independent Parliament would have delivered mothers 26 weeks parental leave for example. Dunne supported it initially but backed down when it came to the crunch.
Written By: - Date published: 4:14 pm, July 28th, 2014 - 121 comments
It’s the National Party list!
Written By: - Date published: 10:43 am, July 28th, 2014 - 18 comments
National has all-but confirmed today that there no deal for Colin Craig in East Coast Bays, or for any other Conservative. This was the right thing for them to do, for one simple reason. This decision came down to simple maths. If Key thought the Conservatives could muster double the votes that a decision to back the Conservatives would cost National in the centre-ground, then he should do the deal. If not, he should not. All the stuff about Winston running was a bit of a late sideshow, as the decision had likely already been made.
Written By: - Date published: 4:48 pm, July 15th, 2014 - 50 comments
It looks like I’ll be able to head to the NZ First conference at Alexandra Park racecourse on the weekend as media. This election the position of NZ First party members is probably going to be crucial for any coalition that forms. In this rather long post I explain my (and other peoples) thinking on possible coalition results for National after the election. They aren’t good because they really depend on a political group that National has been denigrating for quite a while.
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, July 15th, 2014 - 28 comments
Over the weekend John Armstrong had a column about youth voter turnout in the upcoming election. Much of the material was familiar – young people don’t vote so much – nobody talks their language, yo! – parties are Trying Very Hard, but they are also old fuddy-duddies – and so on. He then blamed much of it on a perceived trend toward centrist politics under MPP. But runs directly-if-casually contrary to at least two large research programmes in political science.
Written By: - Date published: 5:56 pm, June 16th, 2014 - 34 comments
Poor David Farrar, he can’t write a post without getting accused of hypocrisy these days. It must have to do with that rancid stench he emanates whenever he gets on his high horse to lecture others. There’s only one political leader out there saying: “Tactical voting is a good idea for my supporters, and long may it continue, but it is a dreadful crime by others.” That leader is John Key.