Chart of the day: peak oil squeeze

Written By: - Date published: 12:05 pm, June 5th, 2011 - 36 comments
Categories: Economy - Tags:

36 comments on “Chart of the day: peak oil squeeze”

  1. See Nact is really a green party in hiding, they have helped reduce NZ oil driven carbon footprint.
    Or our GDP has gone up.

    • Zetetic 1.1

      lolz.

      As you know, atack, its just that the oil spike this time isn’t as high as 2008 yet. We’re not at $147 US a barrel. And Kiwi is buying more against US.

      Economy is smaller now than 2008, actually.

      that’s why I went right back. Look at that trend. not the individual spikes.

  2. weka 2

    Is there an explanation of those charts? What’s the source?

    • Zetetic 2.1

      sources are Statistics New Zealand.

      Explanation is self-evident. More and more of our economy is being devoted to just getting the energy we need. Leaving less for everything else.

      • Kevyn 2.1.1

        It is also self-evident that this is nothing new and its why we ended up much poorer than Oz. Check this graph I put together from data sourced from MED and peakoil.org.au showing domestic oil production as a per cent of oil consumption in each country. The difference in the 1970s explains why we had little money available for productive investment compared with Oz and therefore why it was our economy that imploded in the 80s and not theirs.
        Oil-3

  3. jackal 3

    Wow! I never realised we spent that much on oil imports. We should really produce our own. Oh! That’s right, the crude we produce here get’s sent overseas anyway and we have to pay premium prices to import the petrol back to NZ. There is no subsidy apart from the 5% we earned in the first place from the crude oil produced here. It’s pitiful!

    Meanwhile the Swiss are getting rid of all their Nuclear power plants by 2034 for 0.7% of their GDP. Nukes are presently producing around 39% of Switzerland’s energy requirements. So I wonder how much of our GDP it would cost to transform New Zealand’s aging vehicles to electrification? Perhaps 1% of GDP over seven years… Makes you wonder why we haven’t done this already?

    • Draco T Bastard 3.1

      Because there’s isn’t enough power to convert all vehicles to electric. Trains, yes. Cars, no. And that means we need public transport which the governments of NZ have been at pains not to put in place for the last 50 or 60 years. I sometimes wonder if that happens to be because they’re trying to keep the oil companies profitable.

    • Lanthanide 3.2

      The oil we export overseas is very high quality, light sweet crude.

      There’s no point taking oil that is worth $135/barrel we produce locally and turning it into petrol, if we can sell that oil for $135 and then important petrol for $90/barrel (all $ figures are estimates and for demonstration only).

      Yes, we export oil. But saying that as if it is a bad thing is silly.

      • weka 3.2.1

        Why can’t we use it here and have cheaper petrol? Is making more money the most important thing? From a climate change and peak oil perspective it’s bizarre to be shipping oil across the globe and then shipping other oil back.

      • Deadly_NZ 3.2.2

        Ummm Lant but the oil that we produce is the best kind for making petrol, diesel and Oh yes Kerosene AKA JP4 & 5 jet fuel. So we have the best and sell it for a fortune and buy crap that the peasants (normal population) can have. So where is the money going???

        http://oilgasinformation.com/light-sweet-crude-oil

        • Colonial Viper 3.2.2.1

          And thats exactly what we do with all our ag/hort/meat/produce…send the best stuff overseas so our producers can profit, and give the low quality shit that poor NZers can afford to our own people.

          • terryg 3.2.2.1.1

            CV, you forgot to add:

            “and charge kiwis export-quality rpices for the substandard goods”

            🙁

  4. ChrisH 4

    I see the big jump from 1999 to 2000, explained by the collapse of the NZ currency to US 39 cents at that time. What would happen if our currency crashed again at today’s oil prices?

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      Would depend upon the amount of the collapse. A drop of 50% from US$0.816 to US$0.48 would undoubtedly cause our economy to collapse completely as the cost of maintaining our economy would at least double. Could be more than that depending on multiplier effects. That said, I think even a 25% drop in the dollar could have seriously deleterious effects.

      I know our exporters are presently hurting from the high dollar but such a dramatic drop could possibly cost more than what the boost in export income could cover. We just don’t have that much spare capacity in the economy.

      • Lanthanide 4.1.1

        I’ve been thinking, and saying for a while, that I think the high NZ $ is simply being driven by oil. If the $ stayed low, the economy would simply collapse. It’s sort of like a forcing pressure – unless the NZ $ is worth 70 cents or higher, it will instead be worth 30-40 cents, and there’s no middle ground.

  5. Zet can you post these charts to Stephen Joyce and tell him that they conclusively show why the Government should help Auckland to build the Queen Street rail tunnel.  Amongst other things it will save a huge amount of GDP.

    Locally produced electricity is going to become more and more cost effective compared to overseas purchased fuel.  Why can’t Joyce see this?

    • Jim Nald 5.1

      Hmm, hoping it is not about closing an eye to that until AFTER locally produced electricity has been put in foreign ownership, his cronies and mates, errr, so-called mums’ and dads’ hands?

      • mickysavage 5.1.1

        Aye Jim. Energy is going to become the most important strategic asset in the world soon. Why this Government wants to give away control of it is beyond me.

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1

          Energy is already the most important strategic asset in the world 😉

          As to why this Govt wants to give away control of it – they are in a non-real world la-la land where the only important resource in the world is MONEY.

          Needless to say, money has no value or use in a world which is out of hard physical resources.

          • Rob 5.1.1.1.1

            Doesn’t have a lot of value in a world which isn’t out of hard physical resources in reality. Only useful if it can be used to get goods with, by itself it has no value.

        • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1.2

          Energy has always been the most important strategic asset.

          Why this Government wants to give away control of it is beyond me.

          Ideology? Psychopathy? Whatever, it certainly isn’t for the benefit of NZ.

        • johnm 5.1.1.3

          Hi Mickeysavage
          Because they’re Ideological Imbeciles on autopilot. The Ideology is an import from the Privatization hell of the failed state of the U$.

        • burt 5.1.1.4

          mickysavage

          Why this Government wants to give away control of it is beyond me.

          Why the last govt wanted to give away control was beyond me also. The last one did and this one will, then we will flip flop everything some time in the future at tremendous cost justified by ideology. Welcome to the two party popularity contest supported by people who never criticise their own team.

          • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1.4.1

            You really do live in your own world don’t you? The people on the left criticise the parties on the left constantly. It only seems to be the people on the right who don’t.

            • James Redwood 5.1.1.4.1.1

              While agree with almost all of the ideologically left-leaning comments here. Which is to say all of the comments. I think you might just be in way too deep if you are unaware of people on the right criticising right wing parties. Criticism of National was the reason the ACT party formed.

    • Deadly_NZ 5.2

      1 he cant read.
      2 he is not interested.
      3 you dont have enough money to pay for his time.
      4 he’s an ignorant prick.

      Take your pick.

  6. Afewknowthetruth 6

    The majority of politicians are scientifically illiterate and immoral, and could not care less what happens to the people or the nation long term.

    For the moment most people are getting what they want -cheap fuel, cheap food, consumer goods, entertainment, overseas holidays etc.

    There will be no change in the dominant culture until after the present system collapses. The present system may continue to function for another 3 or 4 years, after which most people will pay a horrendous price for the greed and stupidity that have characterised the past half century.

  7. Richard 7

    Remember, the UK has a plan in place (goodness knows what the details are, unless its ‘here everyone, have a push bike) for oil to be $250 USD a barrel by 2014

    • Good heads up Richard

      Shame our bunch of criminals don’t have as much forethought , but then how would $250 a barrel oil sit with all the roads of “national’ significances on the drawing boards … they are just tickling our balls while fucking us up the arse
      And that goes double with Labours $15.00 and hour BS … and Kiwi Saver
      They really are utter trash …. and that is exactly what we deserve.

      http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/uk-government-to-develop-oil-shock-response-plan/

      UK Government to develop Oil Shock Response Plan

      Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne yesterday agreed to develop an ‘Oil Shock Response Plan’, following a meeting with the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES).

      The group, which was formed by Arup, B&Q, Buro Happold, Solarcentury, SSE, Stagecoach and Virgin, and campaigns for greater awareness of the economic threat presented by dwindling oil supplies, said that the meeting had proved “constructive” and had helped to advance the energy security dialogue.

      • Uroskin 7.1.1

        The City Rail Link MOT CBR analysis used an ‘expected’ petrol price of $3.75 a litre in 2041 (in constant dollars, I presume). That doesn’t sound right with $250 a barrel price mentioned earlier, but it does sink the rail link CBR (the Joyce version)

  8. burt 8

    I think the chart just shows that we dipped into recession 2007, spent our way out of it using the public purse then crashed in 2008-2009 as would have been predicted given the 2007 mitigation strategy.

  9. nadis 9

    We actually spend less than the global average. Oil production as a share of global GDP varies (typically ) between 4 and 6%. Right now I think its around 5ish

  10. mouse 10

    The “% of GDP Spent on Oil Imports” Chart clearly shows an updward trend… that, over the length of the time scale could not logically be argued correlates well with the Wholesale Debasement of the USDollar (2008 to present). ie. it’s more than money printing.

    Never mind that though… here comes the Calvary…

    “Confusing the equation though, is that actual OPEC output is 1.4 million bpd in excess of ots obsolete official target, set in December 2008 during the depths of recession.

    So if OPEC agrees an increase, oil traders will want to know whether it is simply an increment on paper to legitimise existing supplies, or a real increase on top of current output.”

    …>>> http://www.cnbc.com/id/43288679

    Diaritize next wed/thursday for the “Offical Statement”.

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