The bad news (in six tweets),
From that last link,
Under the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015, virtually all the world’s nations pledged to limit global warming to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels and also, if possible, “pursue” efforts to cap warming at 1.5C. At present, the world is not close to being on track to meet either target.
While the growth of global emissions has slowed in recent years, there is a large and growing gap between current commitments and what would be needed to avoid exceeding these global temperature limits.
Here, Carbon Brief provides an analysis of when the world is expected to pass these limits in the absence of large future emissions reductions. This is based on the latest generation of climate models – known as ”CMIP6” (see Carbon Brief’s explainer) – that are being run in the lead up to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report expected in 2021-22.
Our analysis shows that:
- The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with a central estimate of between 2030 and 2032.
- The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.
- In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.
Some good news (but we have to do something): ordinary people can learn how to make fast lifestyle changes of the kind needed for society to reduce GHG emissions now. The Guardian reports on the UK’s Citizens’ Assembly,
At the start of 2020, Sue Peachey could never have predicted how her life would change over the next 12 months. She was one of 108 people to take part in the UK’s first climate assembly earlier in the year, spending four weekends learning about a range of environmental issues before producing a final report of recommendations.
“The first weekend changed me really. I thought, ‘Oh my God, [climate change] is really going to happen,’ she said. “It made me want to learn and to live my life greener.”
Obviously there are problems with this – avoiding eating meat doesn’t change the agricultural industry which will just switch to destructive plant growing instead of CAFO meat. This highlights the limits of personal actions where collective action is the imperative (we need to switch conventional ag to regenerative ag). But personal action is still necessary. Governments can’t generally act against the wishes of their voters. In order for governments to lead on climate action we need a mass movement of citizens who will tolerate that action. Personal change matters.
In its Sixth Carbon Budget, published earlier this month, the government’s statutory advisers, the Climate Change Committee, said: “The experience of the UK climate assembly shows that if people understand what’s needed and why, if they have options and can be involved in the decision-making process, they will support the transition to net zero.”
This is most important for older generations, said Peachey, who would not have been taught about the climate crisis in school. For her, the experience has been more transformative than she ever anticipated.
“I’m 57, I probably thought this time last year my days of going to meetings and discussing and debating were over, and here we are a year later, I’ve done the climate assembly and I’m now on the parish council,” she said. “Who knows what’s next? But it’s definitely awakened me.”
If that seems entirely inadequate in the face of global crop failures within 30 years, bear in mind that what we need most now is systemic change. Not fiddling with neoliberalism, but wholesale, all hands to the pump, society wide systemic change. And that requires most of us, you and me included, to be willing to change how we live.
The better news is that the sooner we start this change the more chance we have of a change to something good. For those looking for proactive pathways, the Powerdown engenders hope, a sense of empowerment, and helps individuals and societies adapt to as well mitigate climate change.
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