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Clifton: Nat MPs getting nervous

Written By: - Date published: 6:42 pm, March 26th, 2017 - 79 comments
Categories: bill english, national, nick smith, polls, useless - Tags: , ,

English is down 6% in the latest Colmar Brunton (31% to 25%). Interesting context for this Sunday piece on Noted by Jane Clifton:

Bill English’s drop in the polls is making National MPs uneasy

As new PM, English is grinding away – to diminishing returns. Labour and National poll soundings show National’s percentage heading south towards the low 40s. Labour isn’t yet benefiting handsomely from this, but if “time for change” momentum accelerates, voters will, however reluctantly, perceive that giving Labour a legitimising vote share is the surest way to achieve that change.

Although tentative, the poll shift signals that what was once a victory sleepwalk for National has tipped into “game-on” territory. English’s assiduously steady-as-she-goes Cabinet, which hasn’t undone any key Keyisms (even the Super proposal is heavily provisional), will be asking what’s gone wrong.

National’s further handicap is lack of experience of sinking popularity. Only a handful of Nats have known times of low voter approval, the past decade safely immersed in the warm bath of Key’s popularity and dexterity. If that bathwater keeps cooling, there are enough talented backbenchers who can see their chances of reaching Cabinet disappearing forever to cause English big trouble.

And if the caucus does grow querulous, it’ll get personal. The Government’s electoral vulnerabilities – housing, water and the stalled debacle of resource management reform – are all the domain of English’s extremely close friend Nick Smith, aka Pamplona in a china shop. … Admirable though it is, sacrificing one’s country for one’s friend rather than the other way round is not how politics is generally played.

A dead giveaway of National’s unease was the Nikki Kaye/Maggie Barry attack on Labour’s new deputy, Jacinda Ardern…

For the Nats, having so long taken a fourth term as read, the possibility that their own leader may soon be less secure in his job than Labour’s will be a toughie. Points to the first Opposition MP to suggest to the PM that the vacancy for Key’s caddie hasn’t yet been filled.

Given that the Maori Party is reaching out to Labour, maybe Nat MPs aren’t the only ones getting nervous.

79 comments on “Clifton: Nat MPs getting nervous”

  1. paul andersen 1

    expect to see peter dunne making sucking up(to labour) noises

  2. Ski 2

    46% versus 30% and 11%, who is nervous?

    • McFlock 2.1

      Tories should be.

      And if they’re lame-duck pm keeps his current course, they should become “anxious”, “desperate” or even (hopefully) “morose and inconsolable”.

      • Ski 2.1.1

        If Tories are supposedly anxious about BE on 26 or whatever, how are labourites feeling about AL clinging on to 7?

        • Rightly or Wrongly 2.1.1.1

          I think (from his previous comments) that AL will be very comfortable.

          I suspect that the feeling of nervousness in inversely proportional to the level of support obtained.

          Think of it like climbing a ladder.

          If you are on the bottom rung you will be very comfortable – no nervousness at all.

          If you are up near the top of the ladder and there is a bit of a breeze then you may (as Mr Robins asserts) become nervous.

          Kind of avoids the elephant in the room that the goal of AL is to get a little higher up the ladder of popularity than near rock bottom.

        • Incognito 2.1.1.2

          The question as to who is your preferred PM is akin asking a 5-year old who is his/her favourite Mummy (or Daddy).

          • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.1.2.1

            Assuming your theoretical 5-year-old knew that they could answer with any mummy or daddy they liked, not just their own, then yes, it would be about that useful.

            In many ways the “right direction vs wrong direction” question is more useful overall, although that has its problems as a predictor too.

            If we want to know whether leaders are assets or drags on their party, we should be asking for a favourability rating, (ie. a “do you approve of Bill English/Andrew Little, yes/no?”) and then possibly comparing it to their share of the Party Vote, but even that doesn’t tell you everything, as sometimes people will happily like a Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition, but wouldn’t ever consider voting for their party.

        • Johan 2.1.1.3

          To Ski: Tell me what Helen’s popularity was before serving 3 terms as PM?

          • Matthew Whitehead 2.1.1.3.1

            You mean before she was appointed PM in 1999? About what Bill English’s is now, although he’s on a sharp downward trend and her spikiness between the high thirties to mid forties was a lot smoother than English’s has been. After her first six months or so she had a dramatic upwards spike and then averaged about 40% in the PPM polls, before being voted out when Key was a meagre 3% more popular than her, an amount which is probably within the margin of error for telling who was actually winning at that particular time.

            Generally I am informed the trend is that National leaders do better in PPM even before they’re in power, but tend to fall off pretty quickly if they don’t look unassailable, wheras Labour leaders don’t do as well until they’re actually governing, but as I’ve only been poll-spotting since Clark was PM herself and the archives of poll results before that aren’t online, I can’t say for sure whether that’s true.

      • greg 2.1.2

        gone

      • Mordecai 2.1.3

        I recall very similar comments about John Key in 2008, 2011 and 2014. How did that work out?

        • McFlock 2.1.3.1

          That was when he was on what, 40-50%?

          Those were the days, eh…

          • Mordecai 2.1.3.1.1

            That was when people were writing him off because his popularity had dropped below 40%.

            • McFlock 2.1.3.1.1.1

              Well, no, in 2008 he hbounced around 40 (gotta love that incumbent advantage), but in 2011 and 2014 he never dipped below 42% (and Herald had him at 66% once or twice, even 70% in 2011).

              So the most similar comment you would have heard in 2008 was when he wasn’t even PM. So you haven’t really heard anything similar “when he dropped below 40%” for ooo 9 years or so.

              • Rightly or Wrongly

                Well, no, in 2008 he hbounced around 40 (gotta love that incumbent advantage)

                Sorry to prick your bubble but Key wasn’t PM during 2008 until near the end.

                Clark was the incumbent.

                • McFlock

                  I know, it was morbidguy who mentioned “similar” comments in 2008.

                  But as soon as he got elected his trailing median jumped up 10-15%. Hence the incumbent advantage.

                    • McFlock

                      lol so now May 2016 is “in 2008, 2011 and 2014”?

                      Shit you’re a meathead.

                    • Mordecai

                      Read back through the thread. It shouldn’t take you long.

                    • McFlock

                      you’re just a liar.

                    • Mordecai

                      You need to learn to read. And be less of a plonker.

                    • McFlock

                      you’re the one who claimed to have heard similar things in time periods where it was impossible to have done such a thing.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      McFlock, you have to allow for the probability that Mordecai’s amygdala is enlarged to the extent that it clouds his self-awareness.

                      That is to say a dupe, rather than a liar.

                    • McFlock

                      lol

                    • Mordecai

                      “you’re the one who claimed to have heard similar things in time periods where it was impossible”

                      No. You’re confused about the ‘that was when’ comment. The left underestimated Key in the same way the right underestimated Clark. It’s been fun to watch Labour chew through leaders from the sidelines.

                    • McFlock

                      What, the bit where you said that was when he was below 40% and he was never below 40%, as PM, in an election year? So you could never have heard people saying similar things about John Key, given that circumstances never were never similar to begin with?

                      protip: this is where you get to support your assertion with links, like I did.

                    • Mordecai

                      “o you could never have heard people saying similar things about John Key,”
                      You’re either thick or deliberately obtuse. Here’s a clue… it will consume less of your limited intellect. Go across to TDB and search for posts by Frank Macskasy on Key’s popularity.
                      Geez I wonder why I’ve even bothered to give you that much lead.

                    • McFlock

                      still incapable of providing evidence of the impossible then? There’s a surprise. /sarc

                      Linky-winky, little liar. Comments from years 2008, 2011, 2014 please, just like you said. But not 2008, because he wasn’t PM then and TDB wasn’t operational until 2013.

        • Daveosaurus 2.1.3.2

          Key’s gone, in case you hadn’t noticed.

    • Richard McGrath 2.2

      46% after 8 years and a leader with wet dishrag charisma is almost miraculous

  3. red-blooded 3

    Well, if even Jane Clifton is ready to criticise, then the Nats really must be starting to feel uncomfortable. And let’s remember that the election campaign hasn’t actually started yet – there’s plenty of time for that downward trend to bite further.

    I thought the best part of this article was about Jacinda Adern and the misjudged attacks from the Nat women last week. She also makes the good point that Ardern has no intention of challenging Little for leadership and that a popular deputy is an asset, not a problem, as some others in the media have been suggesting.

  4. Brendon Harre 4

    On the related issue of Jacinda doing well in the polls. I have talked to a few people and we all think it is not a problem.

    Andrew appointed her because he thought she would be a great communicator and that decision has turned out to be true. It is a positive result.

    I bet in the coming months Bill will be wishing he had a deputy who was a good communicator and was popular with the public….

  5. BM 5

    National/NZ First looking like a certainty.

    • paul andersen 5.1

      but ,you and your mob hate winston,,,,,so hows that gonna work,? or is this yet another right wing sellout?? morally bankrupt

      • Rightly or Wrongly 5.1.1

        There was a lot of animosity between the Nats and Winnie due to perceived issues around Winnie’s use of trusts etc. back around 2005-2007.

        There was also personal friction between Winnie and John Key.

        Winnie paid for the first one by getting kicked out of Parliament in 2008 and now Key is gone the personal factor is a lot less.

        I have read some of NZ First policies and don’t have an issue too much with most of them.

        If Winnie doesn’t get too grasping for his baubles this year I could see a Nat/NZ First coalition working ok.

        • BM 5.1.1.1

          Yep, Key and Winston not a chance, English and Winston no worries, they’re both career politicians for a start so they’ve got that common ground.

          Done properly there’s a high chance that a National/NZ coalition could rule for another 2-3 terms.

          • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1.1.1

            You’re reaching.

            NZ1st will not work with National. They may work with Labour but I suspect that they’ll sit on on the cross benches.

          • AB 5.1.1.1.2

            Nat/NZF will rule forever.The Key Mausoleum will open in Parnell in 2051 with the embalmed body of dear leader wearing a gay shirt and sucking on a beer. BM will queue for hours every Sunday to glimpse his yellowing hero.

          • Matthew Whitehead 5.1.1.1.3

            LOL Key was much closer to Winston’s politics than English is. Literally the only thing English has going for him that Key doesn’t is that he hasn’t publicly ruled out NZF as an ally before, and even that’s a bit of a stretch.

            I don’t pretend to know what Winston will do, but if he does go with National it won’t be because of Boring Bill English, it’ll be because Andrew Little screwed up his chance.

        • Cinny 5.1.1.2

          It’s not just a party leader Winny and his team would work with, it’s the party itself.

          Would Winny be happy and excited to spend time with and work alongside the likes of Brownlee, Joyce, Bennett, Barry, Smith etc? I’m not so sure he would.

    • ha bm – you are skidmarking all over the place – a good sign of just how scared the rwnj’s are.

      • BM 5.2.1

        Na, I don’t really care who wins the next election, won’t effect me in the slightest.

        if I was honest NZ could probably do with a left wing government coming in and trashing the economy and driving down stock and property prices.

        Currently everything is so over valued, labgreens would certainly solve that issue.

        • Draco T Bastard 5.2.1.1

          if I was honest NZ could probably do with a left wing government coming in and trashing the economy and driving down stock and property prices.

          Dude, trashing the economy is what National just did. In fact, trashing the economy is all that National ever does which is why we always see rising poverty under them.

        • Robert Guyton 5.2.1.2

          “if I was honest” – BM

        • I like the concession that you’re not currently being honest, BM. XD

    • Johan 5.3

      To BM: Good luck with that one;-))))

    • Richard McGrath 5.4

      Deputy PM Peters will roll wet dishrag English after a year

  6. yep I don’t expect bill english to make it to the election – he’ll be pulled down and scoffed before then and a new leader shall arise – as I have said before – beware of paula bennett – she is not stopping till she gets to the top and all will be trampled along the way especially that dirtydealcollins.

    • Ski 6.1

      7 and 30 versus 26 and 46, take your pick as to who will be pulled down and scoffed at.

      • Psycho Milt 6.1.1

        It’s all about whose prospects are looking better and whose are looking worse. Nat MPs will be asking themselves how many fresh disasters Bill’s best mate will deliver between now and the election, and if they’re instead picturing good news turning up on the subjects of housing or water quality, they really shouldn’t.

      • weka 6.1.2

        “7 and 30 versus 26 and 46, take your pick as to who will be pulled down and scoffed at”

        Ardern is not the first diamond Deputy Dawg, either. Winston Peters overtook Jim Bolger, who, of course, “never commented on polls”. It’s also worth remembering that Opposition leaders hardly ever outrate PMs.

        From the article that the post is about, because you appear to have missed it.

        And it’s not 30, it’s 41. We have this thing call MMP now.

      • Cinny 6.1.3

        The outgoing PM is not, was not and never will be elected PM by NZ voters. You will see, on the day following the spring equinox.

        Ski do you know why Nationals deputy does not feature on the preferred PM polls?

        • weka 6.1.3.1

          We don’t vote for the Prime Minister 😉

          • Cinny 6.1.3.1.1

            True that, but I’m sure those who voted National last election did not vote for Bill to be their leader.

            • weka 6.1.3.1.1.1

              Likewise every party (apart from those who are members in parties that do allow involvement in choosing the leader). Not sure what your point is there.

              • Cinny

                I guess my point is, English never will be elected by the people to lead the country. He will try and fail for the second time.

    • mpledger 6.2

      Paula Bennet hasn’t got the smarts, she’ll rely on the wrong person for support who will double-cross her to get the top job.

  7. ian 7

    It may be 7 and 30 versus 26 and 46 now but I don’t see what National has that would reverse, or even arrest, their slide.

    A few pp here, a few pp there, for the next six months. Remember they get tipped out at 40 – 43%.

    • Mordecai 7.1

      No, they don’t. All that happens is that NZF get more influence in a Nationsl led government.

  8. “A One News Colmar Brunton poll released tonight also shows a drop in support for Bill English as preferred Prime Minister, and a pick-up in support for the Maori Party, up from 1 to 4 per cent.

    …Little told the Herald the polling did not reflect the feedback to Labour about how Maori voters viewed the Maori Party.

    “Which is not very favourably. They are seen as having been shackled to the National Government for nine years and stood aside and let Maori homeownership fall, Maori homelessness grow and a whole heap of other things get worse.

    “I just don’t detect, and neither do the Labour Maori MPs, detect any appetite among Maori voters for the Maori Party having a role in Government.””

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11825906

    foolish little – yes stick with your polls you little key – those polls will help you not, those polls will drive your thick statements and be your undoing – and when you have lost and everyone is looking at you then you will know the truth about polls – ffs is he the best we’ve got?

    and for those who think I’m being too harsh

    “On Labour’s showing in the poll, Little said the results were unusual.

    “It’s not consistent with the amazing turnout we are getting at our meetings and the feedback all MPs are getting. The poll’s not bad for us, but there’s been no change in the last six weeks, which doesn’t seem right to me.”

    yep (shakes head slowly and sadly) udaman

  9. Tamati Tautuhi 9

    NZF will be holding the balance of power, however it is highly unlikely NZF will go into a coalition with National, I am picking it will be an Labour + NZF Coalition if they can get the numbers or a Labour + NZF + Greens Coalition, NZF always polls higher on Election Day they have some strong candidates and a strong leader who has stood the test of time, Winston has extensive political experience having been Deputy PM, Minister of Finance and Foreign Affairs.

    The problem Winston and NZF has is MSM have sought to destroy him since the Winebox Enquiry when he attempted to expose corrupt business practices here in NZ.

    The Establishment here in NZ which controls the country are anti NZF as he has always tried to act in the best interests of all New Zealanders, he has links to te tangata te whenua, yet he bats for all New Zealanders, he is not anti immigration however he wants the discussion about what is best for all New Zealanders and New Zealand as a whole. The problem we have is the country is not mature enough to have that discussion.

    • weka 9.1

      “The problem Winston and NZF has is MSM have sought to destroy him since the Winebox Enquiry when he attempted to expose corrupt business practices here in NZ.”

      That and the fact that he betrayed his left wing voters that time when he went into govt with National after implying he would support Labour.

      I don’t see Peters as batting for all NZers. If he was he would be willing to work with parties left of Labour. That’s what MMP was for and Peters has pretty much taken a stance that the centre should rule.

      • dukeofurl 9.1.1

        His numbers back then meant only with national could he form a government easily
        labour + NZF gave 54seats when you needed 61. Which is exactly what NZF + national got.
        The other possible combination was lab+ NZF + Alliance to get 67. Dont think that was viable for Peters.

        • weka 9.1.1.1

          Why wasn’t it viable?

          • Tamati Tautuhi 9.1.1.1.1

            Jim couldn’t get his shit together, just became one big problem

            • McFlock 9.1.1.1.1.1

              Yeah, for years I blamed peters for ’96, but it seems that anderton was playing hard to get and overplayed his hand. Clark couldn’t guarantee the numbers, so peters went with bolger, was the story in a couple of docos. And from what I recall of anderton’s later behaviour, sounds pretty typical.

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    3 days ago
  • Alarming decrease in calves increases fears for endangered Hector’s dolphin
    This has been a terrible summer for Hector’s dolphins. The first indication was very low numbers of dolphin sightings during late spring and early summer. The Otago University Marine Mammal Research Team has carried out routine dolphin surveys at Banks Peninsula for more than 30 years. In all that time, ...
    SciBlogsBy Otago Marine Science
    3 days ago
  • Time for Grant Robertson to reveal package #2?
    On March 17, Finance Minister Grant Robertson was quick out of the blocks with an economic rescue package to help businesses through the inevitable recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Robertson had pulled together a scheme in short order that so far seems to have saved many jobs. In his ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    3 days ago
  • Saving lives
    The purpose of the lockdown is to save lives, by reducing the spread of covid-19. We won't know if its really working for another week, but given the devastation that will result if it doesn't - 14,000 dead is the optimistic scenario - its definitely worth trying. But pausing the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 5
    . . March 30: Day five of living in lock-down… Woke up still in darkness. Alarm hadn’t gone off. Turn to radio clock; it’s a few minutes after 6am… I lie there in the dark, waiting to drift off to sleep… but it ain’t happening. Clock ticks over to 6.55 ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Speaker: Les Gray: the man who told the truth
    The story of Les Gray, the public sector psychologist who told the truth about his use of cannabis and set off a storm, has a special place in the lore of cannabis reform in New Zealand.When Paul Shannon interviewed Gray for the 'Dope and Hope' issue of Planet magazine in ...
    3 days ago
  • Why now? Historical specificity and the perfect storm that has created trans identity politics
    by Phil Duncan For Marxists, a key concern about social trends is their context – not just their causes, but why they happen when they do.  Events and phenomena have causes, but they also are time or period-specific. While much of the left have capitulated recently to postmodernism, most notably ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • Time for a living wage for supermarket workers
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Hard News: MUSIC: Lockdown Grooves
    Kia ora! As I've watched nearly all my remaining work vanish over the past couple of days, it has occured to me that one good way to keep me away from arguing with fools on Twitter all the time (in the knowledge that all we're really doing is processing our ...
    4 days ago
  • A place of greater safety?
    Aotearoa New Zealand has committed to trying to extirpate the virus that causes COVID-19 from its shores. To do that, as a society we’ve moved to “Level 4”. That means adapting to unprecedented restrictions on our personal freedoms, particularly to our rights to move freely and associate with friends and ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    4 days ago
  • The police and public trust
    When the Prime Minister declared a state of emergency last week, she handed the police powers to enforce it. And almost immediately, we started hearing about heavy-handed, arbitrary "enforcement" by police who (at best) cared more about order than law, or (more likely) had no idea what the rules were ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 4
    . . Lock Down: Day 4 – A photo essay with observations . March 29: Usual wake up routine as RNZ snaps on my radio-clock. Jim Mora’s voice slowly enters my conciousness; there’s talk of a second wave of covid19 taking hold in South Korea; the week in Parliament – ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    4 days ago
  • COVID-19 vs New Zealand
    Yesterday, New Zealand recorded its first Covid-19 related death on the West Coast. Unfortunately this is unlikely to be the only fatality, with the virus now being found in every region of the country.However despite the significant danger, people are still unfortunately breaching lockdown rules.There’s really only one main very ...
    4 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #13
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... ‘Misinformation kills’: The link between coronavirus conspiracies and climate denial   Grist / Rob Kim / Stringer / CSA Images  Scientific ...
    4 days ago
  • Rāhui day 4
    The kids did surprisingly well today – meltdown count was about 3, and mostly fairly short ones. (And a fourth while I was writing.) Game-wise I had a go at Fell Seal: Arbiter’s Mark. It’s a fairly standard RPG with turn-based combat and what they call a “mature storyline” (it ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    5 days ago
  • Letter to a friend
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    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 3
    . . Lock Down: Day 3 – A photo essay with observations . March 28: First day of the first weekend in Lock Down. It feels like it’s been weeks since only Level 3 was declared last Tuesday, only four days ago. Woke up this morning to RNZ; coffee; toast, ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    5 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #13
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 22, 2020 through Sat, Mar 28, 2020 Articles Linked to on Facebook Sun, Mar 22, 2020 In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters by Chelsea Harvey, ...
    6 days ago
  • Rāhui day 3
    I’m here in lockdown with my flatmate and her two girls (6 and 2) and it. is. a time. They’re usually really active so to start with the only boardgame in the house is the copy of Guess Who that the 6 year old got for her birthday. Flatmate commented ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    6 days ago
  • A test of civil society.
    The CV-19 (COVID) pandemic has seen the imposition of a government ordered national quarantine and the promulgation of a series of measures designed to spread the burden of pain and soften the economic blow on the most strategically important and most vulnerable sectors of society. The national narrative is framed ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 2
    . . Lock Down: Day 2 – A photo essay with observations . March 27 – Day 2 of our Strange New World. The Park and Ride near my suburb, usually filled with hundreds of vehicles, had just… four; . . Another drive into Wellington City on a highway nearly ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • How Do You Feel? What Do You Think?
    Fortune's Children: Under extraordinary pressure, the leader of the Government and the leader of the Opposition will each show us what they are made of. Have they been blessed with intelligence, grace, wit, poise, toughness, empathy and humour – and in what measure? More importantly, to what extent have they ...
    6 days ago
  • Landlords are NOT an essential service
    If you’ve ever had the misfortune of having to rent a property on the open market in New Zealand, which is one of the most expensive in the entire world, you’ll likely be keenly aware of just how arrogant and entitled landlords and their real estate agents can be.Unfortunately for ...
    6 days ago
  • A “new Society” post-COVID19 will definitely emerge. The question is: on what path?
    Society-wise, aside from the specific morbidity shall we say of the medically-oriented aspects of this COVID-19 crisis, what is unfolding before the world is in more than one way an instructive study of humanity and reactions to a high intensity, high stress environment in real time. Friends, we are at ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    7 days ago
  • Raise the Bar: Everything you need to know about the wage subsidy
    Right now low waged and insecure workers are feeling the economic brunt of the looming #Covid19 Recession. In response legal advocate Toby Cooper* and hospitality and worker’s rights advocate Chloe Ann-King, are putting together a series of legal blogs about your employment rights: In this legal blog we outline some ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    7 days ago
  • The massacre of prisoners in Modelo jail, Bogota, March 21
    by Equipo Jurídico Pueblos and Gearóid Ó Loingsigh (25/03/2020) An escape plan in question On the night of March 21st and the early morning of the 22nd, the forces of the Colombian state stormed into the Modelo prison in Bogotá, murdering 23 prisoners and injuring 83, in response to the ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • We are not America
    When the government banned semi-automatic weapons in response to a terrorist atrocity, gun-nuts were outraged. Mired in toxic American gun culture, they thought owning weapons whose sole purpose was killing people was some sort of "constitutional right", a necessity for "defending themselves" against the government. Now, the Court of Appeal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • When will we know the lockdown is working?
    Just before midnight on Wednesday March 25, Aotearoa New Zealand entered a countrywide alert level four lockdown. For at least the next four weeks, everyone who isn’t an essential worker is confined to their bubble. We are doing this to stop the explosive growth in people contracting and dying from ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    1 week ago
  • Lock Down: Day 1
    . . Lock Down: Day 1 – A photo essay with observations . Day one of the Level 4 nationwide lock-down (or, DefCon 4 as I sometimes cheekily call it) started at 11.59PM on 25 March. For a moment, most of the nation held it’s collective breath. In that brief ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • A Compelling Recollection.
    Broad, Sunlit Uplands: How those words fired my young imagination! Or, perhaps, it is more accurate to say: how those words fused, in my young mind, with the image printed on every packet of Fielder’s Cornflour. Always fascinated by history, especially modern history, I cannot hear Churchill’s wonderfully evocative words, even ...
    1 week ago
  • The Warehouse – where everyone gets a virus
    . . 24 March 2020 9.46AM Number of covid19 cases in Aotearoa New Zealand: 102 . As of 11.59 on Thursday, most of New Zealand will go into “lock down”. People will be expected not to travel to work; not to socialise; and to stay home. I will not be ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Aggressive action to address climate change could save the world $145 trillion
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections A respected research group, Project Drawdown, finds that deploying solutions consistent with meeting the Paris climate targets would cost tens of trillions of dollars globally. But crucially, those outlays would also yield long-term savings many times larger than the up-front costs. The new 2020 Drawdown ...
    1 week ago
  • After the Pandemic
    It will pass. What happens next? Not immediately, but longer term. There are many opinions, fewer certainties. Will it “change everything!” as many confidently, and contradictorily predict? In this post I look at how foresight can help bound some of the uncertainties so you can more objectively consider the future. ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Coronavirus – Cuba shows the way
    We’ve been meaning t write something on Cuba and the coronavirus but have just discovered a very good article on the subject in the US left publication Jacobin.  The article looks at how Cuba, a poor country but one where capitalism has been done away with, is leading the way ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Using privacy law to prevent the death penalty
    In 2018, El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey - two British citizens who had purportedly been stripped of their citizenship by the British government - were captured while fighting for Isis in Syria. The British government then conspired to hand them over to the US, and agreed to provide evidence ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • It’s Time For Disaster Socialism.
    Transformers: The disaster of the Great Depression was transformed into a new and fairer society by the democratic socialism of the First Labour Government. The disaster of the Covid-19 Pandemic offers a similar transformative possibility to the Labour-NZ First-Green Government. Seize the time, Jacinda! You will never have a better ...
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2020
    Tamper with The System? Well, we already are. But there's a difference between accidentally trickling sand into a precision gearbox versus formulating a plan to alter it on the fly with improvements in mind. One action is more or less innocently unscrupulous, the other amenable to earning an easy ...
    1 week ago
  • Avoidable hospitalisations: Helping our health system get through COVID-19
    Associate Prof George Thomson, Louise Delany, Prof Nick Wilson While it is possible that New Zealand can use intense public health controls to eradicate COVID-19 from the country – we must also plan for other scenarios where thousands of New Zealanders are sick – including many urgently hospitalised.1 Better resilience ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Raise the Bar: 10 questions to ask your employer proposing redundancy
    Kia ora my name is Chloe Ann-King* and I am the founder of Raise the Bar, a campaign and non-profit that gives free legal aid, advocacy and tautoko to hospitality workers in Aotearoa. Right now all over our country hospo workers are being fired at will, having shifts cut or being ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    1 week ago
  • An equitable way to support business
    The Herald reports that the government is planning to lend billions of dollars to large businesses to keep them operating during the pandemic. As with mortgage relief, this is necessary: we need companies to stay in business, to reduce the economic damage and help things get restarted again when this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: Together Alone
    We're about to do something unprecedented as a nation. We hope that by taking this extraordinary action before a single life in New Zealand has been lost to the deadly novel virus we will save tens of thousands of lives. Our  lives. We'll do it together, in households, in isolation ...
    1 week ago
  • Why timing is everything: ‘A time to refrain from embracing’ starts today
    “There is a time for everything,    and a season for every activity under the heavens.”So writes the author of Ecclesiastes, a book in the Old Testament that’s counted as a ‘wisdom’ book and written as if by an unnamed king of Jerusalem. But who would have thought there would be a time ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    1 week ago
  • Dealing with the Covid-19 Tsunami.
    I was surprised when the prime minister described the Economic Response to Covid-19 package as the ‘largest peacetime government spend in New Zealand's history’. Reflecting – checking through history – I realised that the term ‘spend’ was crucial and the package had no income tax cuts. Even so, it has ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • What about renters?
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago

  • Further measures to support businesses
    The Government will be introducing legislation to make changes to the Companies Act to help companies facing insolvency due to COVID-19 to remain viable and keep New Zealanders in jobs. The temporary changes include: Giving directors of companies facing significant liquidity problems because of COVID-19 a ‘safe harbour’ from insolvency ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 hours ago
  • Govt’s COVID plan, economic strength recognised
    The Government’s plan to cushion the blow of COVID-19 by supporting incomes, jobs and businesses, and position the economy to recover has been backed by another international report. International credit rating agency Moody’s today reaffirmed its highest Aaa credit rating on New Zealand, saying the economy is expected to remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Funding certainty for sports through COVID-19
    National sports organisations have been given certainty of funding to ensure they can remain viable through the COVID-19 pandemic, Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “The global spread of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on sport and recreation in New Zealand, including the cancellation or postponement of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • Butchers now allowed to process pork
    Changes have been made to allow butchers to process pork, only for supply to supermarkets or other processors or retailers that are open, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor has announced. “We carefully weighed the risk of allowing butchers to open their shops for retail customers, but the risk of spreading COVID-19 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Essential workers leave scheme established
    Essential workers who take leave from work to comply with public health guidance are being supported with a leave scheme to ensure they will continue to receive income, say the Minister of Workplace Relations and Safety Iain Lees-Galloway and Minister for Social Development, Carmel Sepuloni. A number of essential businesses ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Govt WhatsApp helps share COVID-19 information
    A Government WhatsApp channel has been launched to help make information more easily accessible and shareable in the fight against COVID-19. Govt.NZ, which is free to use on any mobile device, will carry information and news for the public, businesses, healthcare providers, not for profits and local government. It can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Managed departure plan for stranded foreign nationals enables safe, orderly exit
    The Government has announced a plan to enable the safe, orderly exit of tens of thousands of stranded foreign nationals from New Zealand during the current COVID-19 Alert Level 4 restrictions, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters has said. “When we moved into lockdown a week ago, the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government delivers COVID-19 support to GPs and Pharmacies
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says the Government is delivering on its commitment to support general practice doctors and nurses, and pharmacies on the front-line of our fight against COVID-19. "For us to overcome COVID-19, we need community health services such as general practice and community pharmacy to step up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Susan Thomas the new Chief High Court Judge
    Justice Susan Thomas has been appointed Chief High Court Judge, Attorney-General David Parker announced today.  She replaces Justice Geoffrey Venning who has resigned from the position.   David Parker paid tribute to Justice Venning, who he said had stewarded the High Court very capably over the last five years.   “On behalf ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Business Finance Guarantee – applications open
    Businesses can start applying to their banks for loans under the Business Finance Guarantee Scheme set up to support the New Zealand economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’re moving quickly to protect New Zealand businesses, jobs and the economy during this unprecedented global economic shock,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Work starts on ways to fast-track consents to boost recovery from Covid-19 downturn
    Work is underway looking at measures to speed up consents for development and infrastructure projects during the recovery from COVID 19, to provide jobs and stimulate our economy.  Environment Minister David Parker said the COVID-19 pandemic is a serious global crisis that will have a wide ranging and lasting impact ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Advance payments to support contractors
    Advance payments will be made to transport construction industry contractors to retain the workforce and ensure it is ready to quickly gear up to build projects which will be vital to New Zealand’s COVID-19 economic recovery, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. He said keeping the workforce required to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government seeks infrastructure projects
    The Government has tasked a group of industry leaders to seek out infrastructure projects that are ready to start as soon as the construction industry returns to normal to reduce the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford and Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones say. The Infrastructure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Health system scaled up to prepare for COVID-19
    Work to scale up the health system in preparation for COVID-19 was today outlined by Health Minister David Clark, as he reported back to the new Epidemic Response Committee. “We are well placed to contain the spread of COVID-19. We have taken early and decisive action at our borders, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Essential media COVID-19 guidelines refined
    The Government is refining its COVID-19 essential business guidance to include the distribution of news publications for communities which are hard to reach. The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media, Kris Faafoi, said the move was in recognition of the importance for New Zealanders who might be harder to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Supermarkets able to open on Easter Sunday
    The Government is ensuring supermarkets can open on Easter Sunday so we can buy groceries, but stay closed on Good Friday allowing workers to take a break. This provides a balanced approach and ensures we avoid large queues that two days closure may cause. “Supermarkets will be able to open ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand defence personnel conclude mission at Taji
    Following the successful conclusion of the Building Partner Capacity (BPC) mission at Taji, New Zealand defence personnel are returning to New Zealand from Iraq, in accordance with the Cabinet decision made in June 2019, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. “New Zealand is very ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • State of National Emergency extended
    The State of National Emergency to help stop the spread of COVID-19 has been extended for a further seven days, Minister of Civil Defence Peeni Henare said. The initial declaration on March 25 lasted seven days and can be extended as many times as necessary. “Since we went into isolation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Strong Govt books support ‘go hard, go early’ response
    New Zealand’s ability to go hard and go early in the fight against COVID-19 has been underpinned by strong Government finances and the growing economy heading into this global pandemic, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown financial statements for the eight months to the end ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Christchurch Hospital Hagley ICU to open to support COVID-19 response
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says 36 new intensive care beds at Christchurch Hospital’s new Hagley building are being fast tracked so they are available for treatment of COVID-19 patients.   The Ministry of Health is working with contractor CPB and Canterbury DHB to enable access to the hospital’s ICU, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government supports Air NZ freight flights
    The Government has fast-tracked up to $1 million to help Air New Zealand move urgent freight to and from New Zealand, with the first flight to Shanghai leaving tonight, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. Phil Twyford says it’s crucial that trade in vital goods such as medical supplies and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Tariff concessions on COVID-19 related products
    New Zealand will temporarily remove tariffs on all medical and hygiene imports needed for the COVID-19 response. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Kris Faafoi said today that the New Zealand Customs Service will apply tariff concessions to all diagnostic reagents and testing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Clarification of modification to wage subsidy scheme
    Minister of Finance Grant Robertson has clarified that the changes to the wage subsidy scheme announced yesterday mean that employers should be passing on the full subsidy to workers, except in the case where the person’s normal income is less than the level of the subsidy. “We still want employers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Face masks flowing to DHBs
    Medical face masks from the national reserve supply are now being distributed to District Health Boards, while at the same time local production is being ramped up. Yesterday more than 640,000 masks were sent to DHBS – that is an immediate two week supply, with more to follow in coming ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Further steps to protect New Zealanders’ jobs
    The Government has made modifications to the wage subsidy scheme to ensure people don’t lose their jobs during the national lockdown. These changes will soften the impact of COVID-19 on workers, families and businesses, and position them to exit the lockdown and look to recovery, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tax relief for Mycoplasma Bovis farmers
    Farmers whose herds were culled in response to the outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis will be able to minimise the tax treatment of their income in some circumstances. Revenue Minister Stuart Nash says Cabinet has agreed to change the law. It means farmers may be eligible to spread their income over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $27 million for NGOs and community groups to continue providing essential services
    A $27 million dollar package, effective immediately, is being provided to social sector services and community groups to ensure they can continue to provide essential support to communities as we stay at home as a nation to stop the spread of COVID-19, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced. “At ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Statement on guilty plea of March 15 terrorist
    “The guilty plea today will provide some relief to the many people whose lives were shattered by what happened on March 15,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “These guilty pleas and conviction bring accountability for what happened and also save the families who lost loved ones, those who were injured, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 updates
    The Prime Minister is holding daily press conferences to update New Zealanders on the Government's response to COVID-19. Links to videos and transcripts of these updates below. These transcripts also include All of Government press conferences led by Director Ministry of Health's Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 25 March: Live update from the Prime ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Police numbers break through 10,000 mark
    Frontline Police numbers have broken through the 10,000 mark for the first time in history as officers step forward to keep the community safe during the COVID19 lockdown. “Two Police graduations in Auckland and Wellington in the past week have been conducted in unprecedented circumstances,” Police Minister Stuart Nash said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Urgent tax measures for economic recovery
    Urgent legislation has been passed to support the package of economic and social measures needed to recover from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. “The COVID-19 Response (Taxation and Social Assistance Urgent Measures) Bill will cushion New Zealanders from the worst economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak,” said Revenue Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further support for farmers and growers as drought persists
    From tomorrow, Government support for farmers and growers affected by drought will be expanded and extended across the country, with access to Rural Assistance Payments (RAPS) available throughout the North Island, parts of the South Island and the Chatham Islands, Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced. “These challenging conditions have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Temporary changes to Education Act
    Parliament has passed amendments to legislation that give the Secretary of Education stronger powers to act in the fight to limit the spread of COVID-19, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “They are part of a suite of changes passed under the COVID-19 Response (Urgent Management Measures) Legislation Bill,” Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar join NZ and Singapore in committing to keeping supply a...
    Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar have joined forces with New Zealand and Singapore by committing to keep supply chains open and remove any existing trade restrictive measures on essential goods, especially medical supplies, in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.  Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker today welcomed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Rent increase freeze and more protection for tenants
    Immediate freeze on rent increases Tenancies will not be terminated during the lock-down period, unless the parties agree, or in limited circumstances Tenants who had previously given notice can stay in their if they need to stay in the tenancy during the lock-down period Tenants will still be able to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Working together to protect businesses and workers
    As New Zealand unites to lock-down in the fight against COVID-19, the Finance Minister is urging all businesses and workers to stay connected over the next four weeks. “We understand the extreme pressure many businesses are under right now. I know most business owners think of their workers as family ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • State of National Emergency declared to fight COVID-19
    A State of National Emergency has been declared across the country as the Government pulls out all the stops to curtail the spread of COVID-19. “Today we put in place our country’s second ever State of National Emergency as we fight a global pandemic, save New Zealanders’ lives and prevent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister’s statement on State of National Emergency and Epidemic Notice
    Mr Speaker I wish to make a Ministerial Statement under Standing Order 347 in relation to the recent declaration of a State of National Emergency. Having considered the advice of the Director Civil Defence Emergency Management, the Minister of Civil Defence declared a State of National Emergency for the whole of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Deadline for domestic travel extended
    People needing to travel on domestic flights, trains and Cook Strait ferries to get home before the country moves into level 4 lock-down tomorrow night will be able to continue using the passenger services until midnight on Friday, Transport Minister Phil Twyford said today. Domestic passenger services, particularly ferries, have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Mortgage holiday and business finance support schemes to cushion COVID impacts
    The Government, retail banks and the Reserve Bank are today announcing a major financial support package for home owners and businesses affected by the economic impacts of COVID-19. The package will include a six month principal and interest payment holiday for mortgage holders and SME customers whose incomes have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago