This popped up in my twitter feed last night. It’s some research published in October 2019 looking at the risks of multiple crop failures as the planet moves between 1.5C and 2C global warming increase.
First the bad news then the good news. From the research abstract,
The increasingly inter-connected global food system is becoming more vulnerable to production shocks owing to increasing global mean temperatures and more frequent climate extremes. Little is known, however, about the actual risks of multiple breadbasket failure due to extreme weather events. Motivated by the Paris Climate Agreement, this paper quantifies spatial risks to global agriculture in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds. This paper focuses on climate risks posed to three major crops – wheat, soybean and maize – in five major global food producing areas.
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Risks of simultaneous crop failure, however, do increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2 °C, so surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold will represent a threat to global food security. For maize, risks of multiple breadbasket failures increase the most, from 6% to 40% at 1.5 to 54% at 2 °C warming.
This is science not news. We already know that crops are at risk. Here’s the IPCC’s chapter on food security (PDF) if you want to read more.
Shifting mass numbers of people onto an annual cropping plant-based diet doesn’t seem so smart after all.
The good news is that permaculture and other regenerative food growing systems have been developing techniques and practices for this scenario over the last 40 years. Below are some examples. Coupled with relocalising food supply, they give a much more stable system of food production and distribution, at the same time as lowering GHG emissions with the potential of being carbon sinks. Bear in mind this doesn’t mean an end to annual cropping, it means we aren’t so reliant on food systems that are already set to fail.
Countries like New Zealand are well placed to lead the world on this, in terms of dropping our own emissions and increasing food security, but also providing models and expertise to other countries. We can and should still grow some excess food for export but with the aim of increasing food security for vulnerable countries rather than merely supporting the global economy. Imagine trade agreements centred around that.
The following examples aren’t silver bullets, but show case a range of foods production systems that feature resiliency and how to adapte food growing in different climatic conditions.
In this five minute slide show of the permaculture classic Greening the Desert, the Lawtons show the process whereby they established trees in Jordan that were bearing food within the first year in one of the harshest climates on the planet. The area has one of the lowest rainfalls per head of population in the world and the land in the area had been overgrazed and salinated.
This TED talk (20 mins) shows how to graze animals so you don’t end up in a drought (both locally and from climate change). Alan Savory has been doing this on-the-ground research for over 50 years, and developed systems of mob grazing that reverse desertification, sequester carbon, and restore local microclimates on such a large scale that they would probably effect macro climate if adopted en masse.
At the end the TED host calls the presentation truly astonishing, but these farm technologies, based on mimicking natural cycles, are well known in sustainably land management circles and are also being used successfully in NZ.
Our own Robert Guyton and his wife Robyn’s food forest in Riverton, now over two decades old.
Things that stand out for me from this video are:
What’s really needed right now is for central and local government to lead by putting funding and direction into regenerative agriculture. I’d like to see subsidies in place to encourage food growers from backyard to large scale farming stations, as well as advice and R and D support built in across the relevant government departments.
Needless to say, we still have to urgently reduce GHG emissions, locally and globally.
Mod note: no climate denial under my posts thanks, including ‘it’s too late’ or ‘there’s nothing we can do’.
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