Climate change: what happens now?

Written By: - Date published: 10:37 am, August 14th, 2018 - 138 comments
Categories: climate change, disaster, Environment, global warming, sustainability - Tags:

Guest post from Tony Veitch (not etc.)

So what happens now?

What happens when the understanding, the awareness, finally filters down and enters the minds of the sheeple that we humans have done irreparable damage to our only home, Planet Earth?

Whether in eight years, as Guy McPherson would have us believe, or about the year 2050 as more mainstream climatologists are now suggesting, conditions on earth will have deteriorated to the extent that human life cannot be sustained. Certainly, we most probably won’t see 2100.

And they will wake to the fact eventually, even if there is a conspiracy among the elite and the knowing to keep them in ignorance for as long as possible.

How do people react – or, more to the point, how should they react? Does a collective despair overwhelm us all? Or do we, as some characters in Neville Shute’s ‘On the Beach’ do, try to cram as much into what little time we have left, even if it ‘kills’ us?

In an ironic way, the more primitive societies may last the longest. Man resident in the great conurbations will perhaps feel the impacts first and more extremely.

But seriously, how does one prepare for the realisation that we humans only have perhaps fifty years left? That we are ‘the sixth mass extinction’?

138 comments on “Climate change: what happens now?”

  1. Antoine 1

    This is ridiculous.

    Put up some evidence that mainstream climatologists believe that humans will be extinct by 2050.

    Or (as there isn’t any such evidence) delete your post. That would be a better option as it would avoid unnecessarily worrying readers.

    A.

    • mickysavage 1.1

      Que?

      There are plenty of predictions along this line. Try this article for a start:

      https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/12/climate-scientist-environment-apocalypse-human-extinction/

      Or this one.

      http://sciencenordic.com/what-will-our-climate-look-2050

      Even if extinction does not happen it is clear that the world will be pretty stuffed.

      Placing one’s head in the sand should not be an option.

      • Antoine 1.1.1

        I see a couple of crackpots suggesting that human populations could be considerably reduced within the next century. I don’t see a mainstream climate scientist asserting that humans will be extinguished by 2050.

        Better to delete this post and try again with a more realistic scenario.

        A.

        • Kevin 1.1.1.1

          Its not going to be the climate directly that causes a reduction in population, but the chaos and mayhem that will be a result of climate change. Look at countries that are barely above sea level for starters.

          • Antoine 1.1.1.1.1

            OK, now you’re talking about ‘a reduction in population’ I start to think about believing you.

            As opposed to the original post, which said _everyone_ was going to be dead in 50 years.

            A.

        • mickysavage 1.1.1.2

          Why?

          What makes it extreme. The melting of the tundra and the adverse weather events in the Northern Hemisphere are causes for concern. I don’t get your reasoning. This is agreed a more extreme view of what may happen but the less extreme views are also terrifying.

          You seem to be saying that unless we can confidently say what will happen the subject should not be debated. That is a recipe for business as usual and for a crisis to occur.

          • Antoine 1.1.1.2.1

            I’m saying that it is not useful to throw ridiculous scenarios out there (everyone dies by 2050). Let’s have a sensible debate rather than scaremongering.

            And if anyone round here has any credible alternative to “business as usual and … a crisis to occur”, I’d love to hear it.

            A.

            • mickysavage 1.1.1.2.1.1

              They are all predictions. This is a more extreme one. Even the lower level ones are terrifying. Why rule it out? And how about you put up an alternative scenario and back this up.

              • Antoine

                > Why rule it out?

                Because it is ridiculous!

                Why present it as a near certainty?

                A.

                • jimekus

                  Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
                  Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
                  PNAS August 9, 2018. 201810141; published ahead of print August 6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

                  Where such a threshold might be is uncertain, but it could be only DECADES ahead at a temperature rise of ∼2.0 °C above preindustrial, and thus, it could be within the range of the Paris Accord temperature targets.

                  The impacts of a Hothouse Earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive.

                  —————-

                  Antoine, while you’re there have a look at Fig. 2 – it is the most frightening thing I’ve seen to date.

                  • Antoine

                    > The impacts of a Hothouse Earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive.

                    Happy to agree with that

                    A.

                    • jimekus

                      If you agree that these Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse Earth are only avoidable by global cooperation to stop burning carbon in order to avoid extinction, please provide evidence that such global cooperation has in any way even the slightest possibility of happening. Also retract your previous comments about the lack of mainstream evidence (as Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America isn’t any such discredited evidence).

                      If you can Imagine that you are an active 90 year old chain smoker, then you and your doctors must realize that paradox that stopping smoking will kill you simply because you bypassed so many other natural Vitamin B pathways of normal biochemistry. Likewise the global dimming from burning dirty sulfated carbon fuels is what’s keeping us alive.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  Because it is ridiculous!

                  [citation needed]

                  There is plenty of evidence going back years that things are going to be much worse than the worst case scenario from the IPCC.

                  Why present it as a near certainty?

                  Probably because it is. If you hadn’t been denying the evidence all along you’d realise that.

                • https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-timeline-of-the-mass-extinction-events-on-earth.html

                  “Permian–Triassic extinction

                  This mass extinction, which occurred 251 million years ago, is considered the worst in all history because around 96% of species were lost. Ancient coral species were completely lost. “The Great Dying” was caused by an enormous volcanic eruption that filled the air with carbon dioxide which fed different kinds of bacteria that began emitting large amounts of methane. The Earth warmed, and the oceans became acidic. Life today descended from the 4% of surviving species. After this event, marine life developed a complexity not seen before and snails, urchins, and crabs emerged as new species.”

                  For God’s sake, what in our present situation leads you to believe the 6th mass extinction will be any lesser than this one – triggered by excess carbon dioxide?

                  • Ali Ababwa

                    The Permian-Triassic extinction event took about 13 million years from start to finish.

      • Andre 1.1.2

        That Motherjones piece relies very heavily on MacPherson. Yes, he of the confident prediction that humans will be extinct in 8 years. It also cites Wadhams and Nissen, who are credible, particularly with respect to what’s going on in the Arctic, but they don’t suggest human extinction is looming, just that it’s going to get very unpleasant for a lot of us. Similarly the sciencenordic piece makes no comment about imminent human extinction, but talks about how the choices we make now will affect how bad it’s going to get.

        From a simple physics and geochemistry point of view, it’s utterly implausible the oceans and atmosphere will heat up and chemically change fast enough to cause the extinction of humans within 50 years, or even 100 years. Even with the worst case tipping points and step changes in greenhouse gases from methane burps etc.

        What we are realistically playing for now is whether the tropics and subtropics remain habitable for humans, or whether in the next few decades we are going to see annual heat and starvation death counts in the tens or hundreds of millions coupled with massive migration pressure out of those areas. Along with agriculture failures and ecosystem disruptions in temperate and higher latitude zones.

        It’s also worth noting those areas likeliest to be hardest hit by climate change overlap strongly with the areas currently experiencing the fastest population growth and populations that have contributed least per capita to the problem we’re now facing.

        Also at play from the actions we take now (or not) is whether the oceans remain a productive food source for hundreds of millions if not billions of people, or whether our seafood delicacies get reduced to the occasional jellyfish.

        • marty mars 1.1.2.1

          Good comment. MacPherson and his doomed opinions are impossible to take seriously. They cloud the issue. Better to not bother with the doomerdeathcult and stick to the physics and facts – they are nightmareish enough and they require action now.

          • Andre 1.1.2.1.1

            MacPherson really makes me angry. He’s talking way outside his field of expertise while trading on his academic past to fake an aura of credibility.

            His fuckwittery isn’t harmless, I’ve just had one of my near and dear go through a serious mental health crisis with suicidal thoughts, and while he’s smart enough to pick MacPherson is utterly lacking in credibility, from the comments he made I can’t help suspecting there was still a background subconscious effect. And for those that aren’t smart enough to see through MacPherson while they’re going through that kind of crisis, it could quite easily be enough to tip someone over the edge.

            • marty mars 1.1.2.1.1.1

              Yes i agree about the McPherson. I can’t stand him and his phoney war.

              Sorry to hear about your loved one’s difficulties. I work with people going through similar things. It’s hard for everyone.

            • AB 1.1.2.1.1.2

              Watched MacPherson videos a couple of times recently and he has all the appearances of a flake precisely because of the precision with which he picks dates – ice free Arctic in September this year and a collapse of civilisation in September or October this year (probably October) due to grain crop failures.
              FFS! He’s actually talking about real phenomena, but picks dates from out of backside, which principled scientists never do.
              Wadhams is totally different, understated, cautious, but obviously terribly worried.
              And yes – I wouldn’t dream of giving MacPherson air time when young people are about in case they are terrified by what they hear. I have memories of being about 8 during the early 1960’s cold-war hysteria and actually building a tree-house (of sorts) in the bush to hide in when the Russians came.

      • Gosman 1.1.3

        None of those articles suggest the planet will definitely be in a catastrophic climate change situation by 2050.

        The first one suggests it might be possible (but also stated the Artic would be ice free this year, which it is not http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/07/) .

        The second discusses the worse case scenario by the IPCC which has the temperature being 5 degrees higher by 2100.

        • Tricledrown 1.1.3.1

          Gossip boy reading your link thoroughly it shows both the Antarctic and Artic Ice is in continual decline at the recent average at 5% per Decade.
          This would mean at present rates a 40% decline or more if more fires deposit more smoke particals cover the polar ice cap’s increasing the melt rate.
          This article is not making any overall predictions.
          But is pointing to evidence that increases in temperatures and more wildfires mean the rate of Polar Ice melt will increase rapidly with many different causes all to do with human activity.
          One of the most damaging effects is the of sea Ice which protects the Solid land, is disappearing when it does more rapid melt will occur.
          The National govt paid $32 million towards Ice core drilling I have read all the Data connected to this research and it points to catastrophic climate change.
          I went to lectures by the scientists who did the research.
          Right wing politicians have ignored the research.

    • Bill 1.2

      I agree it’s unwise to put definitive timelines on stuff. And I’d say “extinct by 2050” is worthy of one of those sandwich board fellas, but…

      …there is basic, widespread agreement (including from well regarded and conservative global financial institutions such as the World Bank and others) that global human civilisation doesn’t survive 4 degrees of warming.

      And if all pledges made in Paris are honoured, then we’re going to hitting something very close to 4 degrees of warming.

      When does that happen?

      Well, that depends on the rate that we emit CO2. But it most assuredly will happen unless we stop producing CO2 emissions.

      And this.

      • Antoine 1.2.1

        > there is basic, widespread agreement (including from well regarded and conservative global financial institutions such as the World Bank and others) that global human civilisation doesn’t survive 4 degrees of warming.

        You got a link on that?

        Cos I’m looking at the 2012 World Bank report discussing the impacts of 4 degrees of warming, and it _doesn’t_ say that global human civilisation would end.

        Sure, it says “a 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation,” but that’s not the same thing.

        A.

        • mickysavage 1.2.1.1

          We can all celebrate and stop worrying. Humanity is not facing extinction, just likely severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation. Phew …

          • Antoine 1.2.1.1.1

            > Humanity is not facing extinction

            Then why does your site still feature a post under the byline “How does humanity prepare for the realisation that humans only have perhaps fifty years left?”?

            A.

            • mickysavage 1.2.1.1.1.1

              Stop trolling. You do know what “prediction” and “perhaps” mean?

              • Antoine

                I’m not trolling. Rather, the Standard is being alarmist and irresponsible.

                A.

                • Grey Area

                  You are trolling. Stop it. G.

                • Tricledrown

                  Antione you say humans are going to undergo dislocation stress etc.
                  That’s at present rates of pollution.
                  Double the number of cars planes use of resources.
                  Then what.

              • Gosman

                Where was the prediction that we only have “perhaps” 50 years left?

              • greywarshark

                The question arises what will humans do as things get worse and lots of things become extinct or burn up or something? One thing is sure and some persons will not be worried – Antoine and Gosman and ? will be fending off all negative information. Like this;- Comment – Antoine But, Comment – Antoine No., and so forth and on.

                Refute, Refute, Refute.

          • Gosman 1.2.1.1.2

            Pretty much what Humanity dealt with over the past 100,000 years then.

            • cleangreen 1.2.1.1.2.1

              No Gosman we did not hae mined all the earth back then and produced so manny toxic chenicals as we have now today that is by itself contibuting to our global poisoning as we speak.

              I past generations only had lead poisoning not the chemical soup we now live inside of today.

              we are killing our nselves slowly so dont worry the mother earth will take longer and snuff us out more slowly than we are doing it to ourselves now.

              For instance did you know what outgeassses into your home that you shut up air tight today when you have that new plastic carpet you just had fitted.

              Read this; we are living in a toxic soup;

              http://www.sixwise.com/newsletters/05/03/22/the-toxic-dangers-of-carpetingare-the-carpets-in-your-home-or-office-a-health-hazard.htm
              And this

              https://healthybuilding.net/blog/126-scotchgard-and-stainmaster-a-precautionary-tale-for-the-green-building-movement

              Scotchgard™ and Stainmaster™: A Precautionary Tale for the Green Building Movement
              Bill Walsh | February 24, 2006

              “Researchers at Johns Hopkins Hospital drew blood from the umbilical cords of 300 newborns and reported this month that ninety-nine percent of the babies were born with trace levels of perfluorooctanoic acid, usually called PFOA or C-8. [1] This industrial chemical was, until very recently, a critical component in the manufacture of certain fabric and carpet treatment products such as Scotchgard™ and Stainmaster™, as well as Teflon™ and other nonstick and stain-resistant products. [2]

              It is well understood that chemical exposures in utero and during childhood can produce devastating health problems in adulthood. [3] The evidence increasingly suggests that early life exposures to certain chemicals can lead to health problems not only in adulthood, but also down through subsequent generations.[4]”

              Yuk::::::

              The Toxic Dangers of Carpeting:Are the Carpets in Your Home or Office a Health Hazard?
              by SixWise.com

              Walking across your soft, wall-to-wall carpet with bare feet may seem pleasant enough, and we won’t deny that it does feel cozy, but there are some unpleasant and downright dangerous things about carpeting that deserve attention.

              In America, we love wall-to-wall carpeting–in fact, according to the Carpet and Rug Institute more than two-thirds of American floors have them–despite the fact that they contain toxic byproducts that are released into our homes and even inhaled and absorbed into our bodies.

              Carpet Samples

              It looks innocent enough, but carpets are made from synthetic fibers that have been treated with toxic chemicals that outgas into your home.

              Carpets Emit Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in Your Home

              Almost all carpet is made from synthetic fibers and those fibers have been treated with synthetic chemicals that “outgas” into your home. Here’s a list of some carpet “ingredients”:

              Petroleum byproducts and synthetics (polypropylene, nylon, acrylic)
              Soil and stain repellents
              Vinyl or latex
              PVC
              Urethane
              Antistatic sprays
              Artificial dyes
              Antimicrobial treatments
              After being exposed to these chemicals and breathing them in or absorbing them through the skin, some people may feel symptoms such as headache, dizziness or nausea right away.

              But often times, no symptoms are felt. In the long-term, however, no one knows for certain what the effects of these chemicals may be. The EPA has said that no cause-and-effect relationship between carpet emissions and health problems has been proven. However, says Mark Gold from Holistic Healing, “Please pay attention to this warning: Sucking down toxic chemicals may seem okay now, but you may pay a very heavy price in the future.”

              For instance, carpets may contain:

              Known carcinogens such as p-Dichlorobenzene. These chemicals may also cause hallucinations, nerve damage and respiratory illness in humans.

              4-PC, the chemical that gives carpets their distinctive “new carpet smell” and is associated with eye, nose and upper respiratory problems.

              Mothproofing chemicals, which contain naphthalene.

              Fire retardants with PBDEs, which may cause damage to thyroid, immune system and brain development functions in humans.

              Older carpets can be more problematic than new ones for two reasons:

              Older carpets may contain older, more toxic chemicals that have since been banned from the market

              Older carpets accumulate toxins (such as cigarette smoke, pesticide sprays, paint fumes, etc.) and can slowly release them over time. Further, carpets with PVC backing may contain plasticizers that can react with moisture or humidity, resulting in an odor.

              What can You Do?

              There are several actions you can take to reduce your exposure to carpet emissions.

              Choose Natural Carpeting: Wool or hemp are two alternatives, but make sure they haven’t been chemically treated (most are).

              Green Label Plus Certification: In 2004, the Carpet and Rug Institute started the Green Label Plus Certification, which certifies that carpets are free from 13 toxic chemicals. Look for carpets with this certification.

              Recommended Reading

              The Most Unknown, Underrated but Crucial Health Tool

              Dust Dangers: What Exactly is Dust, and Why Can it be so Dangerous?

              Exposure to Air Pollution Linked to Genetic Abnormalities

              Finding Solutions to Toxic Carpeting January 31, 2005

              Dangerous Toxins That Live in Your Carpeting

              Your Home Carpet

        • Bill 1.2.1.2

          You got a link on that?

          Yes. Or at least I did have. They were embedded in this paragraph from an old post I wrote in 2013, but seem to have moved.

          And we can expect temperatures in line with the Burdigalian – ie 4-6 degrees C above pre-industrial levels by 2040 or 2050 according to the estimates of such conservative institutions as the International Energy Agency, the World Bank and others.

          I’ll have time later today to attempt tracking them down, and I’ll come back to you.

          Meanwhile, here’s Kevin Anderson from 2012 – (pdf page 72)

          There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of eco-systems & has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C would be an interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level).

          • Antoine 1.2.1.2.1

            > Meanwhile, here’s Kevin Anderson from 2012 – (pdf page 72)
            > “There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is incompatible with an organised global community”

            I see that is Kevin Anderson’s view – although I don’t see his reasoning set out. Nor do I see “basic, widespread agreement” (by which I think you mean general acceptance) of his view.

            A.

          • Bill 1.2.1.2.2

            Alternatively, google search “civilisation and 4 degrees” and see what you get (hint: you’re going to get stuff like the following)…

            Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and former climate adviser to the German Chancellor and the EU, asks rhetorically: “What is the difference between two degrees (of temperature increase) and four degrees?”

            “The difference,” he said, “is human civilisation”.

            • Antoine 1.2.1.2.2.1

              Yes, that’s the top link. Then there’s a bunch of different links saying different things. Many reference the World Bank study, which _doesn’t_ predict that 4 degrees would end global civilsation.

              Can we agree that a 4 degree rise would cause widespread upheaval, shitloads of deaths, environmental damage, and the collapse of civilsation in _some_ areas? I don’t see anyone arguing with that, and I’m happy to leave it there if you are.

              A.

              • SPC

                How does a nation cope with the arrival of refugees that exceed in number that of their own population?

                Trade will be affected, because currencies will be all over the place and there will be severe trauma on the banking system – a systemic crash and reboot is likely (with greater government involvement in allocation of money).

              • Dennis Frank

                Well, based on my reading, you’re minimising the 4 degree scenario too much. Global civilisation degenerates into dystopia around then. Sooner, if the methane clathrate trigger goes at 3 degrees. Pockets of survival, perhaps even some regions partially resilient.

                • Antoine

                  Isn’t that pretty much what I said?

                  A.

                  • Dennis Frank

                    Okay, we agree. Thought you were suggesting global civilisation would survive as a system through that temperature rise. Too many subsystems becoming chaotic or breaking down simultaneously for that to happen. Localisation of culture will have already become an embedded trend by then. Regional collaboration still feasible but unrealiable. National coherence via govt looking like a shredded net.

                • Gosman

                  You assume civilisation descends in to dystopia. Given advances in lab grown food it is quite possible that we radically re-orientate away from agriculture and rely on manufactured food supplies instead. Given the large amount of extra energy the Earth will capture there is a huge potential around energy supplies as well. The main element in the maintenance of modern civilisation are abundant, cheap energy and stable food supply. Both of these are still possible even in the worse case scenario.

                  • Dennis Frank

                    Yes they are. I see that stuff as part of a design for resilience that our politicos ought to be moving into.

                    We need the Nats to stop treating their bluegreens like a dog in a kennel. Bluegreen thinking must be acknowledged as an operational strategy. We need to use that technofix expertise.

                  • Rather have a steak and cheese pie than your lab made pills, mate.

                    • Hanswurst

                      Who said anything about pills?

                    • Gosman did,- further on down the post. Aka laboratory made food. And OK,- if you want a synthetic cheese burger , – you are welcome to it.

                    • Exkiwiforces

                      Don’t worry I’ve tasted eggs assist and anyother crap food the yanks dish out and quite frankly Gossman you can stick that shit up your feckie as it tastes like shit.

                  • Tricledrown

                    Gossipboy to grow the lab food you need raw ingredient’s.

              • Bill

                Can we agree that a 4 degree rise would cause …

                Yeah Antione, I wrote that global human civilisation doesn’t survive 4 degrees of warming.

                Anderson says the same thing in different words – incompatible with an organised global community”

                And I think I’m on safe ground to claim that in all the posts I’ve written on AGW and in all the comments I’ve made on AGW, that I’ve never written that all traces of human civilisation would be gone.

                You are able to grasp that “the collapse of civilsation in _some_ areas” (as you put it) is exactly and precisely the end of globally integrated human civilisation, yes – ie, that things get “patchwork” and disparate?

                Maybe your reading of the original comment was too hasty – I dunno.

  2. Stunned Mullet 2

    Perhaps it would be prudent to get a local secondary or tertiary science teacher to review your scientific musings before publishing them.

    • You are not knocking our education systems , are you?… after all today’s students are tomorrows adults…

      • cleangreen 2.1.1

        Stunned mullet will be certainly stunned when he/she cant find any oxygen after the concentration dropes to low for human life to exist without an oxygen mask; – bet they haven’t thought of this yet have they yet?

        http://scrippso2.ucsd.edu/

        A warning it has now begun and who knows whether it will increase faster going forward now?

        Atmospheric Oxygen Levels are Decreasing
        Oxygen levels are decreasing globally due to fossil-fuel burning. The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide. These plots show the atmospheric O2 concentration relative to the level around 1985. The observed downward trend amounts to 19 ‘per meg’ per year. This corresponds to losing 19 O2 molecules out of every 1 million O2 molecules in the atmosphere each year.

  3. Dennis Frank 3

    I doubt he meant to imply that. Conditions deteriorating to the extent that the ongoing existence of humanity is unsustainable is a hypothetical extrapolation of current trends. Whenever climate scientists produce consensual statements (IPCC) they are extremely cautious around such extrapolation.

    Impressions to the contrary are driven by alarmist psychology. They are merely states of mind. What readers ought to be worried about is illuminated by considering the difference between global warming as an average trend and disaster scenarios produced by scientific evidence of tipping points.

    Global warming induced boiled frog psychology in the populace. Few want to look at the evidence, therefore politicians produce policy based on the ignorance of the many to get elected. Democracy ensures that the status quo continues. Folks driven by a sense of urgency must therefore do an end-run around democracy to get a suitable result for humanity. Twenty years of failing to learn this lesson so far.

    Trigger points derive from complexity theory, and the climate is produced by complex natural systems in mutual interaction (Gaia). Triggering is indeterminate in theory as well as in practice. Evidence of trends towards tipping points has been comprehensively compiled by many researchers and authors during the past 30 years. The precautionary principle has emerged in consequence as our sound guide to public policy. Implementation via contingency planning is kicking in. Slowly.

    • Exactly so, Dennis – the boiled frog scenario. It’s all gonna be all right – until it isn’t.

      Frankly, I don’t think we can be too alarmist. The changes in climate we are experiencing are to result of our emissions of thirty years ago. We’ve still got a long way to go to reach peak emissions – and 4 degrees looms!

      We have to wake up humanity to the impending catastrophe, otherwise we’ll all sleep walk to extinction. Tinkering won’t cut the mustard any more – we need to be really radical, even to the point of making NZ ‘fortress NZ’.

      • Dennis Frank 3.1.1

        I agree Tony. It’s where Winston, if he can transcend conservatism, and the Greens can do symbiosis. National self-reliance. So concurrent with foreign trade, we must develop the design for that.

  4. AsleepWhileWalking 4

    I think its a lie that humanity will be extinct in a few hundred years.

    The rate of loss in terms of biodiversity is accelerating. The fires in British Columbia, dust storms in Australia, temperatures reaching into the 50s in places, tornadoes in NZ on a regular basis…the earth is doing what George Carlin predicted – kicking us off the planet.

    That doesn’t take centuries to accomplish.

  5. SPC 5

    Hyping up my highly atuned prediction drive I note

    A unknowns

    1. Maunder muminum yes or no, if yes how strong and for how long?
    2. The existence of a tipping point, and if and or when we reach it – see 1 (which may delay us triggering it)

    B knowns

    1. we have set ourselves plans of action (targets to reach) for around 2050
    2. carbon etc use prior to 2050 will still be growing the total build up in the following decades

    Concerns
    1. there will be more and worse droughts and floodings
    2. there will be economic refugees forcing their way into safer nations
    3. there will be pressure on the sufficiency of food for the human population
    4. there will be difficulty affording supply of food to those unable to pay for it (in the first instance those receiving the refugees)
    5. nation states will consider puting their own first by seizing (where they are able) control of local water (and arable land) resources
    6. there is a higher risk of war
    7. those who buy and farm land in other countries (for export products) will suffer nationalisations
    8. humanity will be told the immediate problem is over-population, thus the only answer is to lock out the refugees and let them die to save the species – thus those behind the gate can live on as before.
    9. once the experts identify what the future global environment stability will look out, the ones who decide will adopt a methodology to manage the gated community survivor population accordingly (and the means to do this are already being developed and trialled by the way).

    • Antoine 5.1

      All sounded credible until 9., which sounds pretty flaky. Since when did the experts run anything?

      A.

      • SPC 5.1.1

        The ones who decide, have never been the experts.

        • Dennis Frank 5.1.1.1

          Yep, the owners/operators of the control system will prioritise their class survival first. But just as ants farm aphids, they need to continue harvesting business profits, so they have to incorporate a design to preserve productive enterprise as their secondary priority.

          Then, since businesses can’t exist without customers, a sufficient number of plebs will have to be preserved via system design. Don’t fix a system that ain’t broke, so they will preserve capitalism in modified form rather than design for resilience in the long term.

          • Exkiwiforces 5.1.1.1.1

            Yes, trying to get the Neo- Libs/ Cons to think long term instead of their silly thinking that market is always right is going to be the hard part and trying break ideology even harder.

            First step is that should be taken at Government level is to get rid the accrue accounting that is force on government departments by treasury as they paying for the pass not for the future especially IRT the Defence, 1st Responses , Civil Defence etc for example if the NZDF got rid of the Captial Charge payments that would free up about a quarter of the Defence budget for new equipment or raise additional units like an extra Engineer SQN within 2 Field Engineer Regt which is currently not funded for atm.

            Change has to start from the top and lead from the top down.

    • Exkiwiforces 5.2

      I fully agree with your assumptions, which are inline with a number of staff papers that I have read and a number cse’s that I have done at a SNCO and Junior Officer level before I was medically discharged when we have discussed the effects of CC IRT to Security base effects under Chatham House Rules and Strategic level planning.

      Two things I would like to add is CC refugees from low laying areas especially from the South Pacific. Trying to get my head round 9: since so-called experts are such a diverse lot that trying to get consensus from them would like trying to crack a walnut with a sledge hammer.

  6. Jenny 6

    All this talk of the size of disaster and when it will hit is speculation at best.

    However, apart from the deniers, I think we can all agree the hit will be massive and devastating and probably come within our children’s lifetimes, and then continue to worsen from then.

    As to how big the catastrophe really is, and as to how near to the brink we are. Our resident Earth Sciences expert, Lynn Prentice, might like to weigh in here, and gave us his opinion.

    I think we need to get back to the original question at the beginning of this post

    “Climate change: what happens now?”

    Whatever the size of the disaster or the time line of when it hits, to me the far more interesting question (and possibly even more controversial one), is what we need to be doing right now to combat it?

    • Exkiwiforces 6.1

      How long is a piece of string Jenny and that’s the 64 million question atm? Unfortunately we really don’t know, but we have number of assumptions, but assumptions are not fact until proven otherwise as are really stepping into the unknown atm and past events to do hold some clues, but us humans weren’t around then.

      As we all agree it’s not looking good. There is an old saying in Military Strategic planning and operations planning, we planned for worst scenario case and hope for the best case scenario as no plan survives first contact with the enemy forces and in this case CC.

      • Jenny 6.1.1

        Or, as we were told in the Girl Guides. Expect the best, but prepare for the worst.

        There are just too many variables and such a huge subject, with an intersection with many disciplines for it ever to be an exact science.

        Earth system science (ESS) is the application of systems science to the Earth sciences.[1][2][3][4] In particular, it considers interactions between the Earth’s “spheres”—atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere,[5] geosphere, pedosphere, biosphere,[6] and, even, the magnetosphere[7]—as well as the impact of human societies on these components.[8] At its broadest scale, Earth system science brings together researchers across both the natural and social sciences, from fields including ecology, economics, geology, glaciology, meteorology, oceanography, paleontology, sociology, and space science.[9] Like the broader subject of systems science, Earth system science assumes a holistic view of the dynamic interaction between the Earth’s spheres and their many constituent subsystems, the resulting organization and time evolution of these systems, and their stability or instability.[10][11][12] Subsets of Earth system science include systems geology[13][14] and systems ecology,[15] and many aspects of Earth system science are fundamental to the subjects of physical geography[16][17] and climate science.[18]

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_system_science

        And while, supercomputers around the world are busy churning out some more definitive answers

        This doesn’t mean that we should wait to act with what we do know about human-induced climate change.

        We know it is real, and we know it is coming.

        • Exkiwiforces 6.1.1.1

          Absolutely correct Jenny, as the a famous Prussian as member of the once famous General Staff said “ A half ass plan is better than having than no plan at all”.

          If we don’t start planning now on the effects or likely effects of CC what hope have got in the future?

          We seen to have become a reactive society nowadays since the advent of Neo-Lib/ Con economic theory than a proactive society we used to be, as we use to at ways at doing things better for the greater good of society which resulted in long term savings in the future rather than short term monetary savings of the present.

          As an old Boy Air Scout “Always be prepared” was the motto, I can’t remember what the old (school) Army Cadet motto was??? probably of similar vein more likely in some funky Latin since the old school cadets have been around since Adam was knee to a grasshopper.

          • greywarshark 6.1.1.1.1

            I think that reactive now – once proactive is a big part of the ridiculous way that we fail to press government to say set up task forces to in each region to get planning and moving. Participatory so concerned citizens can belong How to shift services to higher ground and when, how to design houses so some can be part buried for coolness or in case of fire etc.

            • Exkiwiforces 6.1.1.1.1.1

              Can’t fully agree more, unless they can make a buck here and now, instead of doing it right the first time and saving money, the environment in the future or at least looking into the future. As one of DS staff to be successful at Military planning think and act like chess player as you have think at least 3-4 moves ahead of your opponent.

              Our current crop of pollies are shit scare to make any long term decisions and rather fiddle around the edges, sometimes I wonder what old Piggy Muldoon would do? It would be “don’t Tinker around at the Edges you fools, Think Big and think of the future you bloody fools as there would no NZ without your children , grandchildren and great grandchildren”. I know he a lot of faults, but his heart was in the right place unlike the selfish bastards of the last 30 odd yrs and he like a lot of his generation including myself as a modern day know what war is/ like which should be the last and final option that no one should have ever to contend or put up with.

              It was interesting to note on the ABC’s News Finance report that old mate Musk wants to make Tesla private and the Saudi Wealth Fund are providing the finance.

              • KJT

                Didn’t like Muldoon at the time, but over time my respect for him has grown.

                Unlike today’s National MP’s, he never profited from the job, had a vision for more than three years ahead, and tried to do his best for New Zealand.

                Social welfare for sheep was flawed, but “think big” went on to make a fortune for the private buyers, in the fire sale.

                Also you have to think in the context of the periods steeply rising oil prices.

                If only present day politicians planned ahead, for more than the next set of polls.

                • Exkiwiforces

                  Yes, (Sid and Kiwi Keith was a bit before my time, but I will say this for Kiwi Keith did a bloody good job a resisting the pressure to send more troops to Nam from the Aussie and US Governments from whatI’ve seen in the main library in Darwin also there is a book from JP Cross who report the Uk Government when they got a requested the US Government to commit forces to Laos) Kirk, Rowling and Muldoon had there hearts in the right place and were looking to the future at making New Zealand a better place as they knew what alternative was coming from the depression, through WW2 unlike the current bunch of selfish bastards of the last 30 odd years.

                  As for SMP one only needs to visit the US, Canada and the EU just to name a few at what farming subsidies do the environment and to the overall economy.

          • Tricledrown 6.1.1.1.2

            Exkiwiforces a half ass plan is better than no plan
            The everything will be alright brigade are like the frog in the pot of cold water that don’t notice the temp rising as the pot is boiled.
            Ironically scientists have found that frogs are the bell weather for climate change.

            • Exkiwiforces 6.1.1.1.2.1

              Yeah mate, I’ve just found my second cane toad tonight (well my Jack Russell did) and is now the freezer. We are still two mths out from the Build Up and they start to appear already when they should be still buried underground sleeping until the build up starts.

              Not a good sign

      • Jenny 6.1.2

        ….no plan survives first contact with the enemy forces and in this case CC.
        ExKF

        Agreed.

        The common corollary of this old military saying being; But if you don’t have a plan you are in headless chicken territory.

        In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable.
        Dwight D. Eisenhower

        What Eisenhower meant, is that by having a plan and putting it into practice we find out in practice what works and what doesn’t.

        P.S. And the enemy forces in my opinion is not climate change as such, but vested interest and political inertia.

        What we need in my opinion, is a plan to overcome these forces.

        • Exkiwiforces 6.1.2.1

          Old Ike’s saying is very app indeed, in fact he is one of the Generals that the US has had in modern times apart from Powell until he got burnt by Bush Jnr.

          Anyway how to overcome vested interests and political inertia???

          Apart from overthrowing the government by other means or adopting more hardline approach to the current economic thinking, I really don’t know how it could be done?

          If big changes did happen, there would a hell of a lot pain like what under Douglas and Ruthie which a lot of people don’t want see or do again which is sort of stopping any meaningful change atm.

          • Jenny 6.1.2.1.1

            Based on how we made New Zealand Nuclear weapons free. Which was achieved against the vast weight and pressure of the international industrial military complex.

            Tells me that it is possible to overcome the power of vested interest and shift the politicians to take bold and iconic actions t.

            Achieving that breakthrough; saw all sorts of binding deals and agreements and military and security service intermeshing links, some open, some covert, overturned.

            So we know it can be done.

            We need to ditch the simpering Fast Follower Doctrine followed by John Key and start taking a bold and inspiring international lead.

            Zero new coal mines are within reach.

            The same with deep sea oil and gas prospecting; In my opinion a total, (not just partial) moratorium on all oil and gas prospecting is also not beyond us.

            If we can do these things then others will be inspired to do the same.

            “We’ve always wanted to be what is affectionately called a fast follower,” Mr Key said.

            http://www.newswire.co.nz/2012/11/new-zealand-to-follow-in-global-emitters-carbon-footprints/

            Sez him!

            Kiwis overwhelmingly think New Zealand should take action on climate change even if other nations don’t

            • Exkiwiforces 6.1.2.1.1.1

              I slightly disagree with you on coal IRT’s to steel making, smelting base metals apart from aluminium especially bending nickel into steel etc in the short to medium term. I know the old family coal mine at Blackball our coal was used for foundry’s, Hillside workshops for building locomotives, wagons and carriages etc and that was on the orders of my late great grandfather and even during the war. He said burning coal for heat and warmth is a waste of good product and energy from his POV as electricity is the way to good for the future unless we find away to use the sun or wind to keep our houses dry and warm.

              We’ve got some of the best iron sands and coal in the world along with sands, clays to make cement, rare earths and base metals to make our own solar plants and wind power plants, trains even solar cars. If we can’t get the stuff here in NZ then we get it from across the ditch either as a raw product or has been refine.

              Here’s something the politicians could and should do from my POV, is scrap GST from all EV’s and all GST collected from all sales of all vehicles using fossil fuels apart CNG/LPG powered vehicles goes to support building charging stations around the country.

              The same should be for homeand business solar/ wind power generation knock GST for either back to the grid or off grid power systems and GST collected from all power bills not using wind or solar to support upgrades to substations, trains mission lines etc to allow extra power back into the grid.

              My Disclosure I hold shares in the following companies
              Toro Energy
              OZ Mins
              All NZ and Oz power companies that don’t use fracked gas
              Woodside
              South 32
              FMG
              Blue Scope Steel
              APA
              Beach Energy,
              Vaia Energy,
              2 otherbase metal/ iron ore companies not yet in production.
              Rare Earth, Sands and Lithium mines which there is about 8 separate companies.

  7. Kevin 7

    There has already been a ‘trial run’, for won’t of a better expression, on a smaller scale than what is being predicted.

    And this was caused by a volcano blowing its top (Krakatoa is the likely suspect).

    A two part video that was shown on UK programme, Timeline. Well worth watching

  8. Gosman 8

    Looking at the worst case scenario then the likely outcome is the mid latitude areas of the planet will become virtually uninhabitable. Unfortunately this will impact Billions of humans but unfortunately for them they also live in the the poorest and least powerful militarily and economically parts of the planet. As the climate causes greater issues for them they are likely to become poorer and even less powerful than they are at the moment. This is a massive tragedy which hopefully can be avoided but I’m unsure how this will lead to the complete breakdown of civilisation across the Globe.

    • SPC 8.1

      There will be a significant impact on “inter-connectedness”, apart from the defence of borders from a billion refugees (puts Merkel’s million into context), there will be greater focus on local food security and “supply” contracts with nations who have the money and military leverage – such as China. This will distort normal trade patterns, the current banking/payments system may not survive etc.

      • Gosman 8.1.1

        That is the beauty of the money system. It adapts to whatever the conditions dictate.

        • WILD KATIPO 8.1.1.1

          ” I’ll swap you 10 colourful shells for 7 of those shiny feathers ” ….

        • McFlock 8.1.1.2

          you can’t eat money.

          If China decides it needs to inflict “rice offensives” on the Asia-Pacific regions like the Japanese did in Manchuria, they won’t pay us for it.

        • Tricledrown 8.1.1.3

          The money system is a fragile construct
          Built on a promise of payment.
          Who says they have to keep the promise.

      • “inter-connectedness” – yes, an interesting topic. If areas of the world around the equator, say between the tropics of Capricorn and Cancer, become too hot for human habitation, what will that do to sea transport? The hazards of a couple of weeks sailing (or motoring) across the ‘wet-bulb’ areas of the world may effectively cut the planet in two – with little direct links between them. What happens to the millions in Europe and Asia may be only of academic interests to us as we struggle to adapt to climate change.

        • Gosman 8.1.2.1

          Automated shipping. Air travel will still be viable.

          • Dennis Frank 8.1.2.1.1

            Air travel has only continued due to fracking keeping peak oil from kicking in. Price stability is the thing to watch here. Airline bankruptcies happening simultaneously would make foreign trade real dodgy, huh?

            And automated shipping ain’t a thing. Believe that after you believe in automated cars that don’t crash themselves.

          • Tricledrown 8.1.2.1.2

            Gossipboy Civilian aircraft are easy targets.

    • Tricledrown 8.2

      Gosman so how powerful is NZ.
      4 old frigates with very limited capability.
      A few clapped out herculies
      Some modern helicopters.
      A minute army/airforce/navy.

  9. This is REAL global warming….

    Atomic Bomb Explosion – YouTube
    Video for atomic bomb explosion you tube▶ 0:38

  10. Nik 10

    This issue echoes the fate of Superman’s Krypton, in reverse. Whereas Jor-El was one man desperately imploring an ignorant governing body of their impending doom, we have virtually the entire scientific community of the world desperately imploring a 1% oligarchy of wilfully ignorant capitalists. Amounts to the same result.

  11. Wayne 11

    This whole thread seems to be premised on the current extremes, and implies they become the norm all of the summer, not just a week or so. And that winter basically vanishes. Yes, they are extreme, but they have all been experienced before within the last 100 hundred years, just not so close together. For instance the current UK summer is being compared to the summer of 1976. I was in the UK for that one. Hot but hardly extreme.

    Increases of 3 or 4 degrees in the next 30 years go way outside IPCC predictions. It implies the atmosphere and oceans retain heat at a level that is simply unparalleled. As I understand the science, CO2 levels would have to increase an enormous amount above the present for that to occur on a sustained basis.

    It is a bit like the movie “Day After Tomorrow”. There was simply no science based explanation that could account for the Atlantic cooling by six degrees in three days. OK, I know that was just a film, but extreme scenarios require an extreme level of evidence, not just someone saying “imagine if this happened, we will all die.”

    • Jenny 11.1

      Wayne, Do you deny that it will be bad?

      • corodale 11.1.1

        Bad is such a subjective term. Could we not break the trend and try some positive paraphasing? Like; “Wayne, Do you deny that it won’t be good?”

    • Dennis Frank 11.2

      Media are currently reporting that 1% increase has now happened. The IPCC has always been as conservative as possible. Neither does their estimate include the effect of tipping points. When complex systems get triggered into transition from one stable state to another, that transition is often swift, and those in Gaia would take everyone affected on a wild ride.

      The global climate change reporting in recent months has been composed of temperature records broken yet again, how many years in a row is that now? Plus storms, floods, fires etc more often than in past years. So people are learning empirically from the gathering evidence that the escalation is real.

      Hollywood did dramatise Day After Tomorrow too much: “a storm system develops in the northern hemisphere, splitting into three superstorms above Canada, Scotland, and Siberia. The gigantic “hurricanes” pull frozen air from the upper troposphere into their center, sending air temperature there below -150 degrees Fahrenheit. The subzero temperatures of the superstorms’ eyes cause flash freezing.”

      A theory that has yet to be validated by real life. But we have seen the effect of two storms converging and combining in recent months, and we have see two wildfires combining to make a record-sized one this week in California.

    • Anne 11.3

      …they have all been experienced before within the last 100 hundred years, just not so close together.

      This is the key Wayne.

      It is the future whether we like it or not. These extremes by way of heatwaves and massive storms are going to become more and more frequent and hence they are going to occur closer together. It stands to reason when you take into account the global population explosion… the subsequent increase in industrial and other pollutants released into the atmosphere, and the wholesale destruction of massive swathes of forests which are known to help regulate the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

      The longer you Climate Change cynics (usually on the political right) keep your collective heads firmly ensconced in the sand, the less chance life on this planet as we know it will survive.

      And none of this is very far away.

    • Pat 11.4

      “Various politicians, fossil-fuel interest groups, and commentators have seized on the uncertainty inherent in climate models as reasons to doubt the dangers of climate change, or to argue against strong policy and mitigation responses”

      https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609620/global-warmings-worst-case-projections-look-increasingly-likely/

    • Bill 11.5

      Yes, they are extreme, but they have all been experienced before within the last 100 hundred years, just not so close together. For instance the current UK summer is being compared to the summer of 1976. I was in the UK for that one. Hot but hardly extreme.

      Are you innocently and/or stupidly missing out the bit about those extremes being splattered across the entire fcking hemisphere there Wayne?

      Increases of 3 or 4 degrees in the next 30 years go way outside IPCC predictions.

      Current CO2 levels equate to temperature much higher than today (optimistically about 2 or 3 degrees above pre-industrial). Easy to understand chart here. (Current CO2 levels are north of 400ppm – about 410 and climbing)

      I’m curious about these “predictions” of the IPCC you mention.

      You’re aware (surely, from having been a prominent politician!) that the so-called “extreme” IPCC pathway is the “business as usual” pathway and that (obviously enough) is precisely the pathway that we’re on, yes? And you’re also aware (for the same reasons as above) that politicians and policy advisers wank the fuck on about the 2 degree pathway in public knowing (or they should) that that pathway is rammed chock full of models that can only get to 2 degrees by assuming an improbable amount of negative emissions technology (that doesn’t currently exist) being rolled out all across the world in a decade or two from now?

      Actually, no matter how you want to cut it, (ie, your positioning on all of the above) it appears you’re just yet another fine example of why politicians and the institutions they crawl their way up through need to be jettisoned.

    • Tricledrown 11.6

      Wayne cherry picking one year.
      So how come we have had 14 of the hottest years on record since 1998.
      And your own govts ice core drilling on the Antarctic shows that every other time in history show dramatic climate change occurs when CO² reaches levels close to what they are now.

  12. I’ve got it!

    If we really want to cut back our CO2 emissions, – we need to cut down all the trees!

    Right!, – fetch those chainsaws and lets get working !!! Sorry Shane, put a stop press on that tree planting scheme,- they’ll be the death of us all !

    • corodale 12.1

      Yes! Less trees, more grass. Grazing makes compost, compost supports organic agriculture. Don’t panic, go organic!

  13. corodale 13

    The UN needs more power, so they can have us all sterilised? Is that the drift of this fear porn?

    Or more seriously, how about NZ cuts oil consumption in half, in anticipation of disruption to global shipping, while BRICS-Plus take military occupation of the Middle East? NZ remains neutral, and we watch on with sorrow in our hearts as Australia spills their guts over the Persian Gulf.

    Quantitative easing collapses under the new global alignments, the stock market crashes and 90% of big business goes bankrupt. The central banks of national states then buy the assets they wish to keep, using commodity weighted currencies under BRICS banking leadership.

    The US and UK can make themselves great again, by independently keeping out of it.

    • corodale 13.1

      But how can we stop global warming?
      Well, transparency would be a start.

      As my climatology lecturer once said. “Over the last century, photo chemical smog has actually blocked out approximately the same amount of heat, at the GHGs have trapped.”

      He wasn’t suggesting that there is no global warming, but certainly wasn’t suggesting the situation was hopeless.

      Pollution (photo-chemical) could well save us. Yeah, geo-engineering (the search engine here calms there is no such word). Which might explain why Western Europe has been sprayed for many years now, with fuel dumping from air traffic. If the results of such experiments where made public, then we wouldn’t have to cry “fear porn!”, at OP articles like this one above.

      West coast surfers north and south of AKL will be able to confirm, the condensation trails have become irregular, often persistent. It’s not rocket science or fake news, its just having ya eyes open, dear people.

      • joe90 13.1.1

        I’ve spent most of my life living and surfing on the West coast and other than the rising, but weirdly fluctuating water temperatures, nothing much has changed.

        • corodale 13.1.1.1

          Seriously? North or south of AKL? I was chatting with surfer (who half saved me at Port Waikato), and he thought the new clouds where strange. A local farm and I both noted a very thick condensation trail that ran west-east over Bombay oneday, just last summer.

          • cleangreen 13.1.1.1.1

            Coridale;

            I saw these same strange clouds in Napier last sumer late in the season too with trails also. .

        • corodale 13.1.1.2

          If I remember correctly, a Labour MP raised this issue in NZ parliament a few years ago. It’s certainly been an issue at the UN parliament.

          Some strange spin on the subject. This German article talks of only fuel dumping in emergency. Opening our minds for the full truth though
          https://www.deutschlandfunknova.de/beitrag/fuel-dumping-wenn-flugzeuge-kerosin-ablassen

          I would assume they are using similar tech, to the AdBlue with we have on our european diesel car and tractors. In our glasshouse we spray a lime on the roof, to reduce the sun intensity, it washes off in the autumn. Our farm also sprays silica over corps, a few times per year, but for slightly different reasons. What the UN could do with their Paris deal budget, the mind boggles. I read in a German “Tax Payers Magazine” that Germany have more than doubled they contributions to Paris deal, by borrowing billions from banks. Where did all the money go? I don’t know either.

          Don’t panic, go organic!

      • corodale 13.1.2

        slight correction: search engine = spell check
        both geo-engineering and geo-politics aren’t recognised by spell-check, though I’ll forgive them for not approving the word bankster, the term babylonian-banker is a bit longer, but it cuts deeper to the truth.

      • One Two 13.1.3

        The sky has changed… more accurately, the sky has been changed…

        The only debateable point is how the sky has been changed….

        The changes are mirrored around the globe…

    • corodale 14.1

      So, he admits that scientist are politically bias, Conservatives!
      More indigenous food in the UK? You can’t eat the Celtic!
      Oh, I can listen no more,… I got to (work?) pick-up sacks full of left-over organic-bread from the windmill in the local village. Along with a bit of milk from the cows, and wind-fall apples. Oh, the pigs here eat better than the average Kiwi. No wander you lot are so down in the dumps about everything.

      Don’t panic, go organic!

      • Pat 14.1.1

        how well does your organic garden grow in 50 deg.C?….and how well does it cope with torrential rain?…and drought?….and extreme wind?

        • corodale 14.1.1.1

          Better than the convi-neighbours. We do have ground water here (close to the Rhine, farming on the trenches from the wars). Cost diesel and electricity for the pumps, but the yields are all good, despite 4 months without rain.

          More ethical flow of funds. Shorter, resilient supply chains. Lower emissions, soil development, higher value addition and health, both human and ecological.
          Community interactive, at the small farm shop, plus kindergarden visits, school student practicals, organic polytec visits, university research, work programmes with eastern european students (mainly Russian speaking Muslims), and a model farm with the agricultural chambers. Organics fills the niche.

          Don’t panic, go organic!

  14. sumsuch 15

    Comments here are the scientific dissection of every detail. Thankee on that.

    The media is turned to pleasing it’s pleasure-riddled customers so there is no chance of the concentration on this danger it requires. There’s no hope but hope now.

  15. R.P Mcmurphy 16

    an experiment done in the 1950’s released a herd of red deer on an island in Vancouver Sound.
    The population exploded exponentially and then disease and inbreeding decimated the herd.
    It never recovered its previous health and vitality.

  16. Bill 17

    Maybe this is a small part of what happens now?

    Masked young people in Sweden have set fire to dozens of cars and thrown rocks at police, prompting the prime minister to ask: “What the heck are you doing?”

    A police spokesman, Hans Lippens, said initial reports indicated that about 80 cars were set alight overnight, chiefly in Gothenburg, the country’s second largest city, and nearby Trollhättan. Fires were also reported on a smaller scale in Malmö in the south.

  17. Pat 18

    “A 200-metre section of the Morandi Bridge on the A10 motorway came down in an industrial area of the port city during a sudden and violent storm, trapping cars and trucks under the rubble, the private broadcaster Sky TG24 reported.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/14/genoa-motorway-bridge-collapses-italy

    • Tricledrown 18.1

      Pat Italy the land of Mafia I would suspect shortcuts taken.
      Knowing Italian infrastructure maintenence.

      • Exkiwiforces 18.1.1

        You forgot planning as well and dodgie Italian pollies at all levels unfortunately.

      • Pat 18.1.2

        yes, its entirely possible and it may have no connection whatsoever to CC…..but failing infrastructure simply compounds the problems esp. in a resource challenged world whatever the reason(s)

  18. Exkiwiforces 19

    Found this rather interesting article on the ABC News website:

    It explains the current weather patterns here in Oz and also has some interesting maps/ pictures with little old NZ in it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-14/southern-annular-mode-and-how-it-affects-our-weather/10106134

  19. Jenny 20

    In an ironic way, the more primitive societies may last the longest. Man resident in the great conurbations will perhaps feel the impacts first and more extremely.

    Personally I doubt it.

    It is the poorest and least developed nations, those also least responsible for creating climate change, that are getting hardest hit by climate change.

    Puerto Rico

    Marshall Islands

    Even in the developed countries the poorest are the hardest hit.

    And where will all the refugees from all these climate disasters go?

    Where they have always traditionally headed in time of war and disaster, to the great metropolitan nations and cities.

    What would such ciities look like?

    Vastly overcrowded for sure, because they will be seen as a safe haven from the ravages of nature.
    Already, some first world cities with the resources to do it, are hardening themselves against the effects of climate change, with sea walls and dikes and barriers. These defences will only grow bigger and more formidable as the seas rise and the storms grow worse, until at last the remaining cities start to resemble huge and uglier versions of medieval fortresses. That is until the food runs out as the outlying agricultural hinterland is destroyed.. Even then, it is possible that cities could learn to grow their own food. And this might not be by choice but by necessity, as agriculture as we know it today, will no longer be viable, devastated by floods, drought, and super storms.

    Jut like the Mega Cities of the Ravaged Earth in the Judge Dredd comics.

  20. Sabine 21

    what happens now?

    the very poor will die first,
    the somewhat poor will die next
    the not so poor will die soon after
    followed by the now not rich anymore

    the world will see numbers of refugees that will make the last few years a cake walk.
    And the well of nations can build walls, and those driven from their lands due to floods, droughts, fires, crop failures etc will climb those walls and dig underneath.

    not sure if all of that will come to end by 2050, but i am sure that we are already in the middle of it.

    good fun, buckle up Ladies and Gents, its gonna be a bumpy ride.

  21. johnm 22

    My first question: What is the single most serious threat to the planet?

    Without hesitation, Dr. Wadhams explained: A sudden and huge pulse of methane out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf originating from its extraordinarily shallow waters <50 meters, or a similar burst out of the Laptev Sea, where 53% of the seawater rests on continental shelf averaging depth of <50 meters.

    Those extraordinarily shallow waters expose vulnerability to global warming over miles upon miles of methane concentration, hydrates as well as free gas, believed to be the world’s largest. The vulnerability relates to methane in sediments capped by layers of permafrost left over from the last Ice Age.

    The dilemma is: The permafrost cap is rapidly thawing as a result of anomalous retreat of summer sea ice.

    My follow up question: What will be the impact of a 50Gt pulse?

    Answer: “It would wipe out civilization within 5 years.”
    https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/08/10/peter-wadhams-professor-emeritus-ocean-physics/

    Climate Change is going exponential plus humans are destroying the biosphere.We need Habitat Habitat Habitat to survive otherwise we go extinct, one reason we can't grow grains.

    " The Great Dying wiped out at least 90% of the species on Earth due to an abrupt rise in global–average temperature about 252 million years ago. The vast majority majority of complex life became extinct. based on information from the most conservative sources available, Earth is headed for a similar or higher global-average temperature in the very near future. The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least an order of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun. In the near future, habitat for Homo Sapiens will be gone. Shortly thereafter, all humans will die.
    There is no precedence in planetary history for events unfolding today. For example, the near-term ice-free Arctic will represent the first such event with humans on Earth. As a result, relying on prior events to predict the near future is unwise.
    This presentation describes self-reinforcing feedback loops ( i.e. "positive feedbacks") and other contributors to the on going and near-future global-average temperature rise. The combination of these factors indicates Homo Sapiens will join prior species of humans and myriad other organisms in the void of extinction. " GM Extinction seems a certainty to me.All species eventually go extinct. However time will tell, we can but wait and see who is right and who is wrong. If, IF GM is right we have under 10 years left.

    • johnm 22.1

      More evidence Climate Change has gone exponential. Rignot explains that the Marinelli Glacier in Tierra del Fuego its melt rate has gone from ” 55mph to 550mpg” Also it’s just a matter of some time before the West Antarctic Ice Sheet goes. This is a holy shit!! moment the interviewer exclaims. Rignot responds: it’s worse than holy shit we’re not prepared.

      UC Irvine professor Eric Rignot is featured in this Emmy-winning HBO series VICE where he discusses his findings of Antarctica’s melting ice sheets and the global impact of sea level rise. He told VICE founder and producer Shane Smith that glaciers in West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea have “passed the point of no return” and their disappearance could trigger the collapse of the entire West Antarctic ice sheet, which could raise global sea levels by up to five meters – or 15 feet. Such an event could severely submerge the world’s heavily populated coastal areas, and force us to redraw the world map as we know it.

  22. johnm 23

    For the people who don’t like Guy McPherson and consider him a fake and a flake. This video shows him accused of being a grifter and a conman!to his face. How will he react!? How will the audience react? Will some heavies eject this rude person? Enjoy! 🙂

    Edge of Extinction: Ashland, WI, Q & A Preview

  23. Lebleaux 24

    Interesting thread.

    I think the other thing we have to do is find a way to evolve past the need for religion. At the highest level religions generally teach us that we are not part of the earth, that we are created, that we have a soul and a soul is eternal and you need one to ascend after your death. There is also a view expressed in many parts of the christian book that the other living things on the planet are there for our use and pleasure. While we continue in this mode large parts of us will never understand that we are actually just another product of the planet and as such are tightly bound to its fate.

    Thoughts?

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • What the actual Hell?
    Keir Starmer has hinted that Labour might vote in favour of the Johnson government's shoddy deal, with the proviso that a second referendum is attached:Speaking to BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, he said: “We will see what that looks like but it makes sense to say that by whatever ...
    3 hours ago
  • Hard News: Dealer’s Choice, an oral history from Planet 1994
    In 1994, I was the editor for an issue of Planet magazine focused on cannabis, its culture and the prospects for the end of its prohibition. Part of that issue was an interview with 'Ringo', an experienced cannabis dealer.I recently posted my essay from that issue, and I figured it ...
    2 days ago
  • The invasion of women’s sports by men: some facts
    Dr Helen Waite, sports sociologist and former elite athlete, on the invasion of women’s sport by men and the anti-scientific and misogynist ideology used to rationalise it.   ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • Remainers starting to sound like fascists
    As Brexit comes to a grisly conclusion (perhaps) people on all sides are saying intemperate and uwise things.  Some, like the Daly Mail, have been doing it for years.People as normally level headed as Jon Lansman are calling for automatic deselection of MPs who vote against a (likely) Labour three ...
    2 days ago
  • Labour MPs supporting Johnson’s turd-sandwich deal?
    I find this unbelievable:
    I've got one source saying more Labour MPs than expected are mulling whether to vote for the deal - including names who were not on the letter to Juncker and Tusk— Emilio Casalicchio (@e_casalicchio) 17 October 2019 I've compiled a list of possible reasons why Labour ...
    3 days ago
  • Why do we need control orders again?
    On Wednesday, the government was loudly telling us that it needed to legislate to allow it to impose "control orders" - effectively a parole regime, but imposed without charge, prosecution, conviction or real evidence - on suspected terrorists because they couldn't be prosecuted for their supposed crimes. Today, it turns ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Bullshitting the Minister
    On Monday, the Hit and Run inquiry heard from NZDF's former director of special operations, who claimed that the defence Minister knew everything about the Operation Burnham raid. Today, the inquiry heard from that (former) Minister - and it turns out that he didn't know nearly as much as NZDF ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Speaker: Extinction Rebellion is not a cult (but ecstasy for the people)
    Yoga gurus and cult leaders – I’ve seen a few. Two weeks ago, I unknowingly joined an alleged new-age cult at the Kāpiti coast, together with a giant kraken and some neatly dressed pensioners who would make any book club proud.They were among the two hundred people of all ages ...
    3 days ago
  • We need to bring the police under control
    The last decade has seen a trend of increasing weapons availability to police. Assault rifles. Tasers on every hip. Guns in cars. And following the march 15 massacre, pistols on every hip, all over the country. At the same time, its also seen an increase in the abuse of force: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • If you can’t measure it, does it exist?
    In the last couple of weeks, I’ve been busy preparing for our summer paper on Science Communication. Looking for something amusing about ‘risk’ in science, I came across this neat xkcd.com cartoon about why so many people come knocking on my door (or phoning me, or emailing me) desperately wanting ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    3 days ago
  • Swinson’s swithering
    Jo Swinson is doing even worse at this Being Sensible lark that I'd thought.  I've just become aware of the following utterance
    .@KayBurley presses Lib Dem leader @joswinson on whether she would agree to a #Brexit deal 'no matter how bad a deal it is' as long as it had ...
    4 days ago
  • Women’s rights, trans ideology and Gramsci’s morbid symptoms
    by John Edmundson The International Socialist Organisation (ISO) have recently reposted a February article, by Romany Tasker-Poland, explaining ISO’s position in the “trans rights” debate.  It is available on their website and on their Facebook Page.  The article sets out to explain why “socialists support trans rights”.  It reads more ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • We need to take guns off police
    Today's IPCA report of police criminality: a police officer unalwfully tasered a fleeing suspect who posed no threat to anyone:The police watchdog has found an officer unlawfully tasered an Auckland man who broke his ankle jumping off a balcony to escape arrest. [...] To avoid arrest, the man jumped over ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • “Bringing kindness back”
    "Auckland City Mission: 10% of Kiwis experiencing food insecurity", RNZ, 16 October 2019:About half a million people are experiencing food insecurity, according to new research from the Auckland City Mission. Food insecurity, or food poverty, is defined as not having enough appropriate food. The City Mission said over the last ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Press Release: “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance b...
    Media Statement for Immediate Release 16th October 2019 “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers Despite comments from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers—Herald Newspaper Tuesday Oct 15th–there is very little evidence ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    4 days ago
  • Ever-So-Slightly Bonkers: Simon Bridges Plays To His Base.
    Would You Buy A Used Propaganda Video From This Man? Bridges and the National Party’s strategists have discovered that the ideas and attitudes considered acceptable by today’s editors and journalists are no longer enforceable. The rise and rise of the Internet and the social media platforms it spawned means that ...
    4 days ago
  • Asking for food
    There is plenty of evidence of the way the business mentality has permeated every level of society since the recrudescence of market liberalism 35 years ago. You only need to think of how citizens in need of help from their government, their state, their country, are now routinely described as ...
    Opposable ThumbBy Unknown
    4 days ago
  • Forty years of change in the jobs Kiwi do and the places they call home
    John MacCormick Over the last 40 years, New Zealanders – and people in other countries – have experienced big changes in the jobs they do and where they live and work. These changes include: a decline in manufacturing jobs an increase in jobs in ‘information-intensive’ industries (which are better paid ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    4 days ago
  • Protecting Fresh Waterways in Aotearoa/NZ: The Strong Public Health Case
    Nick Wilson, Leah Grout, Mereana Wilson, Anja Mizdrak, Phil Shoemack, Michael Baker Protecting waterways has the benefits of: (1) protecting water from hazardous microbes; (2) minimising cancer risk and other problems from nitrates in water; (3) avoiding algal blooms that are hazardous to health; (4) protecting mahinga kai uses (cultural ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    4 days ago
  • Massey University triggered to rebrand
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In a press release today Massey University announced it has decided to rebrand and reorientate after struggling to be a University for grown-ups. For some time the University has wanted to be a safe play space for wee-woke-misogynists who have been really badly triggered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Swinson backing calls for a second referendum (again)
    After a brief dalliance with 'hard Revoke' it looks like the Lib Dems are changing ground on on Brexit, with leader Jo Swinson reverting to calling for a second referendum on Johnson's deal.The party has tabled an amendment to the Queen’s speech requesting that any deal brought back from Brussels ...
    5 days ago
  • An odious bill
    The government has decided that someone has done Something Bad. But despite their belief, there seems to be no evidence that they have actually broken the law. So the government's solution is to pass a retrospective law allowing them to be punished anyway, on a lower standard of proof. If ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • National is now the party of climate arson
    So, Judith Collins has done a Facebook rant about climate change, peddling the same shit National has been shovelling for the past twenty years: the impacts are overstated, there's no need to do anything about it, and its too hard anyway (oh, and its so unfair that people who peddle ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • The environmental footprint of electric versus fossil car
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz There is a lot of discussion on the benefits of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    5 days ago
  • “Manifest” by Andrew Bird – A Song For The Times.
    I came across this song quite by accident. If it isn't one of Greta Thunberg's favourites - it should be.Video courtesy of YouTube.This post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    5 days ago
  • Passing the buck
    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    6 days ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    6 days ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    6 days ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    6 days ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    6 days ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    6 days ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    1 week ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    1 week ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Is this study legit? 5 questions to ask when reading news stories of medical research
    Hassan Vally, La Trobe University Who doesn’t want to know if drinking that second or third cup of coffee a day will improve your memory, or if sleeping too much increases your risk of a heart attack? We’re invested in staying healthy and many of us are interested in reading ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    1 week ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
    Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    2 weeks ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
    The Zero Carbon Bill is due back from select committee in two weeks, and will likely pass its final stages in November. So naturally, farmers are planning a hate-march against it. But they're not just demanding lower methane targets so they can keep on destroying the planet; they're also demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
    Today, October 10, is the world day against the death penalty. Out of 195 UN member states, 84 still permit capital punishment. Today is the day we work to change that. This year's theme is children. Having a parent sentenced to death or executed causes long-term trauma and stigmatization which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
    by The Council of Disobedient Women   Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)
    First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
    To avoid no deal, deliver on the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour vs working class immigrants – again!
    by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand.  Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme.  Well, sort ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women press statement: on Massey University and Feminism 2020
    The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Farmers support dirty rivers
    The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • No-one cares about local government
    Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The political ghosts of eugenics may matter more than the genetic
    This essay, on the political legacy of the eugenics movement, by Kenan Malik was originally published in the Observer on 6 October 2019, under the headline ‘The spirit of eugenics is still with us, as immigrants know to their cost’. Birth control. Intelligence tests. Town planning. Immigration controls. It’s striking how ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • “Surplus” again
    Another year, and the government has announced another enormous government "surplus". And just like last year, its nothing of the sort. When we have people homeless and sick and hungry, when we have schools and hospitals still falling down, when we have underpaid public servants and infrastucture unmaintained or unbuilt, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Inside the Downing Street bunker
    James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad.  Some key points:Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Taking Control Of The Nation’s Story.
    Fatal Contact: With the arrival of captain James Cook in October 1769, the islands of what would become New Zealand ceased to be the preserve of Polynesian navigators and settlers and became a part of both the world’s map and the world’s history.THE MAORI NATIONALIST assault upon the historical meaning ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Are GNUs extinct?
    Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour chickens out again
    When the government was elected, it promised to lead the way on electric vehicles, and specifically to make the government vehicle fleet emissions-free where-practicable by 2025.They lied:There are 15,473 vehicles in the government fleet and only 78 are electric. When the coalition Government came into power in late 2017, the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • Government announces 27 percent increase in Trades Academy places
    Two secondary-school initiatives are being expanded as part of the Government’s plan to see more young New Zealanders take up a trade to help close the skills gap.   This includes the largest single increase in Trades Academy places in recent years. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    51 mins ago
  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Police Association Annual Conference
    "Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand announces a further P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand deeply concerned at developments in north-east Syria
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government on high alert for stink bugs
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Better protections for students in halls of residence
    The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New trapping guide for community and expert trappers alike
    The Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage has launched a new comprehensive trapping guide for community trappers to help them protect our native birds, plants and other wildlife, at Zealandia in Wellington today. ‘A practical guide to trapping’, has been developed by the Department of Conservation (DOC), and was launched during ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Widening Access to Contraceptives Welcomed
    Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter welcomes PHARMAC’s move to improve access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs). PHARMAC has today announced it will fund the full cost of Mirena and Jaydess for anyone seeking long term contraception, lifting previous restrictions on access to Mirena. “I welcome women having greater choices ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Major upgrade for Taranaki Base Hospital
    The Government has approved the next stage of a major redevelopment of Taranaki Base Hospital, which will deliver new and improved facilities for patients. Health Minister Dr David Clark has announced details of a $300 million dollar project to build a new East Wing at the New Plymouth hospital. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Extra support for rural families
    Extra funding will allow Rural Support Trusts to help farming families, says Minister for Rural Communities and Agriculture Damien O’Connor. “I know that rural families are worried about some of the challenges facing them, including the ongoing uncertainty created by the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak. “Those concerns sit alongside ongoing worries ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Howard Leaque Beekeeper programme graduation
    Thank you for the opportunity to be here to present certificates to the 16 graduates who have completed a beekeeping course delivered by the Howard League.  Let us start by acknowledging Auckland Prison’s Deputy Prison Director Tom Sherlock, and Acting Assistant Regional Commissioner of Corrections Northern Region Scott Walker - ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Finance Minister to attend APEC meetings
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson leaves this weekend to attend the APEC Finance Ministers meeting in Santiago, Chile. Discussions between APEC Finance Ministers at the meeting will include the effects of the current global economic uncertainty, risks for APEC economies and sustainable development of the region. While at APEC Grant Robertson ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pacific languages are a source of strength, they ground us and build confidence
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says for Pacific people, language can be a source of strength. It can help ground us and give us confidence. When we speak them, our languages provide us with an immediate and intimate access to our identity and our story - and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Major boost to support disabled people in sport and recreation
    The Coalition Government has announced an action plan to improve the wellbeing of disabled New Zealanders by addressing inequalities in play, active recreation and sport. The initiative includes training to develop a workforce that understands the needs of children and young people with a range of impairments, advocacy for fit ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago