Coalition definitively rejected in Aussie

Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, May 4th, 2025 - 9 comments
Categories: australian politics - Tags:

The defining characteristic of the 2025 Federal election in Australia to me is that the Dutton model of vague way down in the future policies, and grumpy grievance now policies was soundly rejected. The voting of preferences is ongoing. But Labour has already up a sound majority in the lower house. It also looks like it will be in a much better position in the Senate – but not a majority.

As at 0830 NZST, these are the results from abc.net.au. Note that there are 19 seats yet to call a definitive result on preferences and recounts at present. But a confirmed and substantive majority already.

It also plunges the Liberal party into leadership chaos as Peter Dutton lost his seat to Labor’s Ali French.

Lower house

Senate had 40 seats up for election out of 76. Continuing means that the seat was not up for election.

Probably the 4 independents, and between 9 and 11 Greens, as well as a substantial Coalition will leave the senate without Labour having a clear majority. However Labor has substantially increased from its previous 25 seats, the Coalition has had a substantial drop from its previous 30 seats, .and the Greens may retain its previous 11. Even with the bickering between senate Labor and Greens, it does make it easier to pass legislation and to speed the progress in the Senate.

While the deliberate lack of detail in poorly formed Coalition policies probably hurt them, it was probably the shambolic framing of what policies that they had during the campaign that really turned off the electorate. When framed against the instability, political and economic chaos in the US and post-brexit UK, grievance politics looks like it turns off electorates – both in Canada and Australia.

As the ABC “How Labor carved a path to landslide victory“, the whole Liberal campaign direction appears to have not convinced the target voters.

Peter Dutton’s electoral strategy targeted “forgotten Australians in the suburbs”, and his campaign featured stop after stop at petrol stations to sell voters on his cut to the fuel excise.

But in Mr Dutton’s home city of Brisbane, the Coalition has suffered a stunning repudiation in exactly the kinds of areas he was targeting.

The Liberal Party’s night went from bad to worse when it became clear the leader himself would lose his own seat, Dickson, as well as Petrie and Bonner – two more electorates on the outer fringes of the city.

Longman and Forde are also looking likely to go Labor’s way.

In the inner city, Labor is projected to pick up Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens, significantly eroding the minor party’s gains from 2022.

In Sydney, the Coalition once again failed to win back any of the outer-suburban seats it was targeting.

Instead, Labor scooped up three marginal seats in the suburbs – Bennelong, Banks, and Hughes – on the back of swings of at least 6 per cent in each one.

This trend in Coalition targeted seats, with a few exceptions, continued across the country.

Also notable this election is where the ‘teal’ candidates not only won against Coalition candidates, they largely did so on the primary votes. Both in existing seats that they held, but it also looks like they may win on preferences in other seats.

Support for independent candidates once more surged across the country, and many of the independents who stormed parliament in 2022 have improved their winning margins.

“All these ‘teals’ won from second place last time,” says ABC election analyst Antony Green. 

“This time they’re winning from first place.”

And there’s a decent chance they could yet be joined by a couple of extra crossbenchers.

In short, in the House of Representatives, there was a landslide to Labor and ‘teals’ in primary votes, mostly drawn from Coalition votes. The Greens appear to have largely maintained their position. But the Coalition, especially the Liberal party, is clearly out of touch with the voters in 2025.

9 comments on “Coalition definitively rejected in Aussie ”

  1. Corey 1
    4 May 2025 at 12:46 pm

    Fascinating both the Canadian election and the Australian election were rejections of the right and particularly the idpol economic left in favor of the center.

    The NDP which through its c/s deal with the libs got pharmacare, dental care and anti scab laws passed lost 2/3 seats including its leaders, losing most of its heavily unionized seats and young voters to the Torys.

    The Australian Greens who were supposed to double their seats and were running on renters control, staunchly pro Palestine, a leftist manifesto, lost 2/4 and looked obliterated on the night and if the leader holds on to his seat it'll be by the skin of his teeth.

    The Tory leaders in Australia and Canada losing their seats is hysterical, the last time it happened in any country I can think of was Aussie in 07 and Canada in 1993, the absolute rejection of the populist right and the culture wars it propagates in two anglosphere elections should freak out national today, who really ought to go back to the boring centerist socially liberal economic fiscal Key style of governing but the leader foolishly gave act and nzf cabinet positions instead of C/s agreements when neither had any leverage due to ruling labour out.

    The Greens here are lucky we have MMP though proportional didn't stop the German, swedish and Irish greens collapsing. 2017 proved that half of the greens vote is on loan from labour and when labour gets its shit together the Greens will be back to 7-8 mp's especial if the Greens don't get their shit together and act like a serious mainstream party.

    As for the nationalist, the separatist BQ lost a third of its seat and SNP was obliterated last year, TPM in the post Trump era could lose half it's seats if Labour puts up a serious competition and national and Trump scare voters.

    It kinda sucks that we have MMP in a way, folks actually want an alternative to this govt but labours coalition options scare voters more than act and nzf.

    Labour needs to siphon as much from the left as it does the right.

    Go Albo.

    Reply
    • Res Publica 1.1
      4 May 2025 at 5:26 pm

      I’m not sure about mainstream. But they definitely need to work on the serious part.

      I suspect we’re seeing a recalibration of politics in the anglosphere.

      The U.S. has become a kind of negative role model. Proof that populist, protectionist, anti-immigrant culture war politics eventually corrode everything. Voters elsewhere seem spooked enough to start taking things seriously again.

      That said, the resurgence of the center-left isn’t guaranteed: it depends on the right being dumb enough to copy-paste U.S. political tactics into places they don’t fit.

      When the far right grounds itself in national context (think RN or AfD), it still draws on deep wells of resentment and disillusionment. And that remains extremely potent.

      Which brings us to New Zealand and the empty suit that purportedly contains our alleged Prime Minister. The irony is he’s probably too naive to intentionally run a culture war campaign. But at the same time, too weak to stop ACT and NZF from doing it for him.

      That kind of accidental chaos might actually be more dangerous.

      The upside? It creates space for the left to paint ACT as extremist: and this time, people might actually listen. But that relies in the left being coherent and organized enough to spot the opportunity and craft a message to achieve that.

      Reply
      • Dennis Frank 1.1.1
        4 May 2025 at 7:27 pm

        One could theorise an antiTrump wave effect, pulsating around western countries, exerting just sufficient influence on floating centrists to herd them away from the right. We have yet to see any leftist role model exerting a positive force-field on the global stage but no reason Carney can't do that, having governed the central banks of 2 western nations. I also don't count Starmer out.

        His bland image and style mask someone surprisingly credible, which is not what one expects from the Labour brand. I read his bio from my local library in the New Year and got my view of him totally transformed. Albo has impressive genial demeanour but evidence of intelligence would be icing on the cake…

        Reply
        • Res Publica 1.1.1.1
          5 May 2025 at 9:02 am

          I think you're right about the anti-Trump wave. There does seem to be a kind of global recoil effect at play, where centre-left parties benefit not necessarily from strong enthusiasm, but from the public’s desire to block something worse.

          In that sense, a lot of these wins feel more like rejections of the right than endorsements of the left.

          But that’s what worries me.

          These victories can be read as mandates, but they may mask a lack of genuine momentum or vision. We haven’t yet seen a left-leaning figure galvanise global imagination the way Trump or even Obama did in their moments. Starmer might be more credible than he appears, but credibility isn't the same as inspiration. Carney's technocratic gravitas could help fill that gap. But that depends on whether the left wants to lead with ideas or just not scare anyone.

          New Zealand’s election next year will be a useful test.

          One thesis is that voters are swinging toward stability and incumbency in uncertain times, which would benefit the current government. Another is that there's simply a recoil from the right, in line with Australia and Canada.

          Of course, both can be true at once: but the distinction matters if you're trying to build something lasting, not just survive the next election cycle.

          Personally, I lean toward the anti-Trump thesis.

          Maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part. But I’m keen to see the right’s stranglehold on the global political narrative finally break.

          Reply
    • Bearded Git 1.2
      5 May 2025 at 9:14 am

      Corey….the Greens got an excellent 12%….the same as they got 3 years ago.

      The Aussie electoral system is pretty crap (though a bit better than FPP) in that in situations where the Greens come second or third in a race and Labour got more first preferences the Green preferences flow to Labour and because Labour got so many first preferences in this election the Greens lost seats.

      Under MMP the Greens would have got 18 seats.

      Reply
  2. mickysavage 2
    4 May 2025 at 7:36 pm

    Good result although I feel sorry for the Greens. They may go from 4 seats to 2. They are needed to steel Labor up. Environmental issues really need to be at the forefront of thinking.

    Reply
    • lprent 2.1
      4 May 2025 at 8:51 pm

      Bit of a travesty, at present they are on 11.9% of the total primary vote, down 0.4% since 2022.

      But because it is a seat based system, they will probably get 2 seats – ie .

      I much prefer the MMP system which has much less of a distortion of the party vote in parliament.

      Reply
    • tc 2.2
      5 May 2025 at 11:02 am

      Agree mickey IMO Bandt was too pale a shade of green and grandstanded rather than doing some hard yards to get a deal on housing and then blamed Albo for coming too late to them last term for such a deal.

      There was also a campaign against them that was all set to go. Was in melb the week after Albo called it and 'Can't afford the greens this time' themed billboards were up with Palmers 'Trumpet of parrots' efforts.

      Reply
  3. SPC 3
    9 May 2025 at 2:26 pm

    Some perspective.

    The last re-elected PM – John Howard (11 years).

    John Howard led the support for the Trumpite Dutton (including nuclear power) and helped him lose.

    Three You Tube videos

    1. Not every culture is equal in February

    2.He was never comfortable with multiculturalism – last week

    3.Anthony Albanese is out of his depth – last week

    Now the ugly Australian loses, helped by the Teal rebellion.

    https://theconversation.com/the-feminisation-of-labor-is-a-key-reason-australians-embraced-it-and-anthony-albanese-255883

    2026 and the end of Luxon and his boys and those who serve them and their agenda as a gated community (private schools and health insurance) class above and apart from the rest of society.

    Reply

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