Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:20 pm, February 19th, 2017 - 111 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

Let’s hope it’s the start of a trend:

1 NEWS poll: Labour and Greens close gap on National following John Key’s departure

The gap between National and the centre left block of Labour and the Greens has tightened in the wake of John Key’s departure as leader, according to the first major poll since his shock resignation.

National is at 46 per cent in the first 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll for the 2017 election year, down four points from the November poll.

Labour has climbed two points to 30, while the Greens are steady on 11 per cent, taking the centre left block’s combined vote to 41 percent.

That narrows the gap between National and the centre left pairing to just five percent.

Back in November National was 11 per cent ahead of the Labour-Greens combo.

In the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Bill English comes straight in at 31 per cent – just five points shy of where John Key was in November. Mr Key has slipped back to two percent. …

111 comments on “Colmar Brunton poll”

  1. All good -heading in the right direction. Steady at the helm Andrew.

  2. Brendon Harre 2

    So in summary the race is tightening and there is everything to play for going into the elections…..

  3. Jenny Kirk 3

    Yes – “steady as she goes”, Andrew. You’re playing a good long game …… and ignore Winston, he’s grabbing every headline he can but I’m starting to think he might be over-doing it, and peaking too soon – we’ll see !

  4. One Anonymous Bloke 4

    And the Brownlee factor has yet to take effect 😈

    • Chris 4.1

      And Bennett’s been kept on a short lead for a reason. Get her out in the open and it’ll be English 2002 revisited. The opposition should be hammering her. Get her talking so people constantly get see what a fuck up she is.

  5. BM 5

    Still basically margin of error stuff.

    The Left has to be disappointed, just goes to show Key wasn’t the lynchpin they thought he was.

    Obviously, rightwingers know a successful government is about teamwork, not just one individual.

    In the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Bill English comes straight in at 31 per cent – just five points shy of where John Key was in November.

    31% for English is impressive for someone who’s only been on the job a couple of months, I expect that rating to climb as he has a much broader appeal then Key.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1

      That’s right: put a brave face on it. Chin up old chap.

    • “I expect that rating to climb as he has a much broader appeal then Key.”

      Comedy gold, BM.

      • BM 5.2.1

        Not at all, solid, Catholic, has a lot of cross-party appeal, I can see that centrist labour rump voting National/English unless Labour pulls finger and start appealing to its core demographic.

        • Robert Guyton 5.2.1.1

          It was 23%, was it not, BM, the result of Bill’s previous popularity test?
          Not so broad as you are claiming, is it, 23%.

          • BM 5.2.1.1.1

            Only a fool would equate Bill English of today to the Bill English 0f 2001.

            Andrew Little will be PM, it just won’t be this time around.

            • Leftie 5.2.1.1.1.1

              Bill English appears to be the same today like he was then.

              Only a fool would think reshuffling the same old, tired corrupt faces with the same old tired corrupt, morally bankrupt government of the last 9 years would suddenly be any different, after the previous PM ran away.

              • BM

                Andrew Little hasn’t been in politics long enough to be PM, worst thing that could happen to him is if he somehow sneaks across the line this year, he’ll get one term if he’s lucky

                Give it another three years learning and listening and he’ll be the front-runner in 2020 and probably get himself two to three terms.

            • peterh 5.2.1.1.1.2

              The only difference is age

        • Psycho Milt 5.2.1.2

          Not at all, solid, Catholic, has a lot of cross-party appeal…

          Big fucking dog’s bollocks. Top of the list by a ridiculous margin is “Actually is the Prime Minister.” The preferred Prime Minister question is a farce. It’s even more of a farce under MMP, but even under FPP it was hardly different from the question “Do you know who the current Prime Minister is?”

          • BM 5.2.1.2.1

            Excuses, excuses, Mr 7% will one day break 10%, just not while the Dipton Dynamo is leading the pack.

            Simon slaughters the socialist slop in 2017 , that’s what the heading will be in September.

            • Leftie 5.2.1.2.1.1

              You sound shrill BM. And your wish may not come true either.

            • Skinny 5.2.1.2.1.2

              It is what it is. Heading down as a third term regime does. Bill is tired and wants out straight after the election. He may leap thru past sitting around the table with Winston? Not sure with the team around him, it is expected after all these years to look sad, Joyce, Brownlee, Smith etc. The team are spent.

          • Bob 5.2.1.2.2

            PM -“The preferred Prime Minister question is a farce. It’s even more of a farce under MMP, but even under FPP it was hardly different from the question “Do you know who the current Prime Minister is?””
            Can you please explain to me why John Key was leading the preferred PM polls 18 months out from the 2008 election? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008
            The preferred PM poll has come up with the next PM in every MMP election to date, so you actually couldn’t be more wrong.

      • Bearded Git 5.2.2

        @Robert Guyton

        LOL

    • Lulu 5.3

      One Anonymous Bloke and Robert Guyton, you are part of the problem; BM is not saying he is left and satisfied or right and complacent. He is saying, correctly in my view, the result is “Still basically margin of error stuff”. If you and your ilk continue to react so naively to small news you will miss the big trend. BE and AL both have a herculean fight in front of them before either prevails.
      If you can’t see the analytical truth in what BM is saying you are living in a fools’ paradise. These results are the first of BE’s time. They are not the end game; they are not the outcome of the election. 2002 is ancient history. These results are, as BM says, “impressive for someone who’s only been on the job a couple of months”. Ignore the analytical voice of reason at your peril.

      • Incognito 5.3.1

        My voice of reason says that Bill English has been an MP since 1990 and that he has been Deputy Prime Minister as well as Minister for Finance since 2008 and thus he can hardly be considered as “someone who’s only been on the job a couple of months”.

        • Lulu 5.3.1.1

          Fine incognito,

          Feel free to ignore my point. Interpret my comment in a way that makes you feel as though you have scored a point and that my comment is irrelevant.
          For the sake of clarity I have read your comment and it doesn’t change the point I made.
          BE has only been PM with the rigour that entails for a couple of months. BM’s point is valid. The CB is “still basically margin of error stuff”.
          You don’t want to hear another thing but here I go: AL has never been PM , he has never been in cabinet, he has never won an electorate seat. He is against a PM who scored 31% on first showing while he scored 7%.
          Your response wan’t deeply analytical, it was superficial.
          I remain of the view that BE and AL both have a herculean fight in front of them before either prevails.

          • Leftie 5.3.1.1.1

            Overly sensitive much Lulu? Incognito has pointed out the
            FACTS, which does not mean he ignored your point, or said it was irrelevant. Bill English is not new, he’s currently a PM by default, and has been in politics for nearly 30 years. This is his second stint as National’s leader. In 2002, Bill English led National to it’s worst election defeat ever with just 20.93%.

            BTW, much of Bill English’s default PMship has been spent whilst on holiday. Parliament only resumed this month, and he hasn’t had the best of starts.

            • Lulu 5.3.1.1.1.1

              Good on you Leftie. That is just the sort of attitude that will focus everyone’s mind on the present and the task at hand. Yup, BE is a has been who is no real threat and the CM makes that absolutely clear. And BM is just “putting a brave face on it”.

            • Grantoc 5.3.1.1.1.2

              A much better start than Little though. Little is paying for incompetent leadership over Waitangi and then the Willie Jackson affair, and this is borne out by this poll result. Where is Little ranked? 3rd I think, behind Winston and well behind English

              In the mean time English demonstrated effective leadership in several different ways – Waitangi; on going economic policy etc etc.

              Commentators on this site would have to be desperate and myopic to equate the Bill English of 2002 with the Bill English of 2017 – but go ahead if you want and do so – because you’ll completely misunderstand what you are dealing with; which will only benefit the Nats.

              • Lulu

                One Anonymous Bloke, Robert Guyton and Leftie,
                What Grantoc said.

                • Leftie

                  What is amusing is the shrill panic emanating from the right.

                  • Grantoc

                    As I said Leftie; all you’re doing is demonstrating how myopic, desperate and delusional you are.

                    But thats fine. Campaign accordingly because you’ll only be helping the Nats.

                    • Leftie

                      What never fails to astound, is the level of hypocrisy right wingers display.

                    • locus

                      and for a charmingly shrill righty rhetorical flourish from Grantoc:

                      all you’re doing is demonstrating how myopic, desperate and delusional you are…..

              • Leftie

                Lol. Says a right winger.

                • Lulu

                  Great analytics Leftie. Are you saying that because I question the reasoning someone beating on the PM uses that I am a right winger?
                  Wow.
                  And when you accuse a commentator of being a right winger does that mean you win the argument?
                  Wow.
                  I hope you aren’t in charge of AL’s strategy Leftie. Because if you are he’s fucked.

                  • Leftie

                    No need to get personal and abusive Lulu. Are you feeling insecure?
                    I have already addressed your comment about the default PM. The “says a right winger” was directed at Grantoc. Where did I imply I won the argument? That appears to be a line you like to throw at those that challenge you. Why are you obsessed about that, as the debate is not about winning and losing it.

                    • Anne

                      @Leftie
                      Pretty sure Lulu has been here before. From memory he/she (possibly male pretending to be female) is a troll. Comes here to sow seeds of dissent after a major poll shows Lab.& Greens have closed the gap. Them thar Nats are worried I’ll be bound.

                      Oh and Bob’s another one. Do you think they could be brother and sister or maybe brother and brother or maybe… 😉

                    • Lulu

                      Note to Anne: wow Anne, paranoid much? I have never commented on a poll result before. I thought my initial objective inputs would be worthy contributions to the discussion but no. My gender and my sexuality is more worthy of comment. If you and Leftie are the quality of the thinking here I needn’t bother.

                    • Anne

                      Lulu, I was talking about your past comments not your comments on poll results. You haven’t been around for a while but – if my memory has served me correctly – you had a habit of turning up when something was not looking too good for the Nats.

                      I note you haven’t denied you’ve been here before.

                      And a good idea. Don’t bother to come here again.

                    • Leftie

                      Good to know, thanks for the heads up Anne.

            • Bob 5.3.1.1.1.3

              Here are some FACTS for you Leftie:
              In 2008 the New Plymouth electorate seat was neck and neck between the Labour MP and the National MP. Jonathan young won by 105 votes.

              In 2011 Andrew Little ran for the New Plymouth seat for Labour, Jonathan young won by 4,270 votes.

              In 2014 Andrew Little tried again against Jonathan Young, this time he lost by 9,778 votes.

              Now speculation time. To me, this would indicate one of 3 things:

              1: Jonathan Young is a brilliant local MP

              2: National are doing such a great job in Government that the good people of New Plymouth have just given their vote to the National candidate by default

              3: The more people get to know Andrew Little the less they like him (it’s not as if Jonathan Young is a big hitter)

              • Leftie

                Do you think it’s helpful that his sister, Audrey Young, is the Herald’s political editor? But hey that’s politics for ya Bob, your speculation, and it is nothing more than that, is still cold comfort for you.

                • Bob

                  I don’t suspect that The Herald is widely read in Taranaki, so no, I don’t think it’s all that helpful.
                  Andrew Little’s track record at election time doesn’t really bode well for you though does it?

                  • Leftie

                    Why would it? Doesn’t bother me at all. His work, since becoming Labour’s leader, is impressive. He has shown himself more than capable of being a good leader.

                    • Lulu

                      Bob didn’t mention AL’s leadership qualities. He refers to AL’s “track record at election time.”

                    • Leftie

                      So what Lulu? Why not point out Andrew Little’s leadership qualities? At least he has those, unlike some. It’s all part and parcel of his time in politics, is it not?

  6. Cinny 6

    I find patterns fascinating, this was an interesting observation by the Herald.

    “The speed of Key’s drop in the preferred Prime Minister rankings contrasts with that of former Labour leader Helen Clark who continued to poll fairly highly for months after resigning.”

    The pattern with the outgoing government, continuous declining popularity.

    Dunne? Done,
    Especially hearing that Greg O’Connor has just won ‘Communicator of the Year’. Well done Mr O’Connor.

    Will Maori could be bye, byes too (I suspect their voters are feeling very betrayed these last few years), and Seymour will be working bloody hard “Hi, hi, high” to hold onto his seat.

    Left/Centre (Green, Alpha and Winny) steady upward trend.

    And the day after Spring Solstice there will be GREAT CHANGE IN OUR COUNTRY 😀

  7. Muttonbird 7

    Mr Key has slipped back to two percent.

    How odd. According to many, Key is the most popular prime minister ever. How has he fallen so low, so quickly?

    • Anne 7.1

      Didn’t take long for the populace to forget him did it. Perhaps that’s because he never actually did anything worthy of remembering.

    • no one likes a bill

      • monty 8.1.1

        This poll remains very bad news for the left. THe voters remain unconvinced of a Labour Green Government. The polls have moved marginally, but reality is that there is no new reason for people to change the way they were intending to vote from three months ago. ANdrew Litttle still remains very unpopular with his own Labour and Green voters. THe right leaning voters accept John Key has gone and have a high level of comfort with Bill English.

  8. mlpc 9

    Reality check.

    At this stage before the 2008 election, the leader of the opposition was ahead of the incumbent PM in the Colmar Brunton preferred PM poll.

    Now the leader of the oppostion can’t even get into second place and has less than a quarter of the support the PM has.

    • We have an electoral system called MMP, you may have heard of it?

    • swordfish 9.2

      Reality check.

      At this stage before the 2008 election (Feb Polls), National’s previous leader was scoring 35-46% as Preferred PM (36% in the Colmar Brunton – 5 points above English).

      Previous Nat leader’s first CB poll as PM ? … 51% (20 points above English).

      Key was already well down in the Preferred PM stakes when he retired late last year (from an apex of 57% in the 2011 CBs) … now English has fallen even further.

      Looks like a quarter of Nat voters have suddenly got the collywobbles and are no longer prepared to automatically choose their Party Leader as Preferred PM … does this unexpectedly poor showing by young William in his first outing on the big stage presage a significant softening of Nat support among swing voters ?

      Are they beginning to have one or two doubts ? Deep down in your heart you just
      know they are, don’t you mlpc ? Sure is a worrying phase for you, Big Fella. You
      gotta be hurting inside. My thoughts are with you at this difficult time.

      .

      • Leftie 9.2.1

        +1000 Swordfish.

      • Phil 9.2.2

        Looks like a quarter of Nat voters have suddenly got the collywobbles and are no longer prepared to automatically choose their Party Leader as Preferred PM

        Hmmmm……

        Labour party vote: 30%
        Little pref. PM: 7%
        Leader ‘popularity deficit’: 23%, or just over three quarters of Labour Party supporters

        National party vote: 46%
        English pref. PM: 31%
        Leader ‘popularity deficit’: 15% or just under a third of National Party supporters

        • swordfish 9.2.2.1

          Nyet, Governor.

          Let’s sort a few things out:

          (1) Colmar Brunton’s Party Vote figures are based on Decided Voters only (85% of respondents in this particular sample).

          (2) In contrast … their Preferred PM stats include the always pretty hefty number of Don’t Knows (ie includes all respondents).

          Integrate the Undecideds into the former – in order to make things strictly comparable – and you’ll see the Nats are currently sitting on 39%.

          Do the math and you’ll find about 21% of Nats therefore failed to choose Young William as their Preferred PM.

          But then you also have to factor in:

          – the probability that a small minority of English supporters came from other Parties

          and

          – excluding those who Refused to Answer the Party Vote question probably reduces the Undecided by 1-3% …

          … and voila !!! – a rough estimate of “a quarter of Nat voters have suddenly got the collywobbles”.

          In other words hmmmmm me no hmmmmms, Big Fella, hmmmmm me no hmmmmms.

        • swordfish 9.2.2.2

          And, of course, Little’s popularity among Labour supporters is irrelevant to my point. Nothing’s changed on that particular front since Phil Goff became Leader (in fact, arguably since Goff was in nappies – at least that’s what it’s beginning to feel like).

          Whereas something certainly has transformed the mood of a quarter of Nats all of a sudden … English it seems doesn’t cut the proverbial mustard. He’s the Diet Pepsi of National leaders.

  9. “mlpc” and “reality check” go together like Ike and Tina.

  10. Upnorth 11

    7% Andrew Little…that is no leader

  11. Ovid 12

    The thing about this is that it shows people are getting more open to changing their minds. And that’s what you need for a change of government in a representative democracy.

    The only way the left can form a government is if it can change the minds of a proportion of people who voted for the right in 2014. That’s why I think Jackson and O’Connor are good moves and I think at least some policy targeted towards those floating voters will be important as Election Day draws closer.

  12. chris73 13

    So National still at 46%, thats pretty good, Lab/Green at 41% which is pretty good for Winston as he has two options

    Winston in second place as preferred PM and Little being closely followed by Ardern which is baffling, I mean what has she done (apart from a few dolly bird articles in magazines) to be rated so highly?

    All in all something positive for everyone apart from Little personally

    • locus 13.1

      the little personal attacks won’t help you chris73 …. people are wising up, and realising that national’s lack of vision has created an increasingly divided NZ, and they don’t like it.

      • chris73 13.1.1

        Ardern is a light weight that couldn’t even handle Paula Bennett in the house. She does seem to be in a lot of pictures with Little though, more so than Annette King who as deputy leader you’d think would be in as many pictures, if not more

        I mean apart from working in a fish and chip shop as a teen what has she done to merit being nearly as popular as Little?

      • Leftie 13.1.2

        Nice one Locus, many +’s

    • DoublePlusGood 13.2

      If you’ve followed politics in the last decade or so, you’ll know that, sadly, vacuous articles in magazines are far more important to voters than competency or policy.

  13. Jimc 14

    The comments that Bil English is a de facto prime minister is rich when Andrew Little had to go to the list because he’s unelectable.

    • Leftie 14.1

      But Bill English (list) is a prime minister by default though, after John key threw in the towel early.

      “Labour leader Andrew Little is to run as a list-only candidate in this year’s election, opening the way for councillor Paul Eagle to win the party’s nomination for the Rongotai seat.”

      “I’ve told them I will be a list-only candidate. I’m not seeking nomination or selection for any seat,” Little said.

      “Leading a general election campaign I need the flexibility I have had for the last two years of being able to be, in effect, anywhere anytime.”

      <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/88443534/little-flags-away-rongotai-new-plymouth-to-go-listonly-for-2017-election

    • locus 14.2

      Jimc – remember that thing called MMP – since Little is at no.1 on the Labour list he will most certainly get elected

      on the other hand… the Nats are looking increasingly out of touch and threadbare

      • chris73 14.2.1

        Out of touch and threadbare yet still managing to pull 46% of the vote, still a bit high in my opinion as I’d put them about 42-43% but still numbers Labour can only dream off

        • locus 14.2.1.1

          yep 42% is pretty good polling and something the nats may well be dreaming of in 6 months time

        • You_Fool 14.2.1.2

          That is what happens when you take an authoritarian stance in terms of working with others. The right looks to me like it is just National being like a toddler hogging all the toys, even if they can only play with one or two at a time. Whilst the left look to be a playground full of 9-10 year olds running around playing a big group game, even if one or two of them are being bossy and making up the rules for everyone else, at least most people are having fun and are involved.

          Not that I think either group should be put in charge of anything with sharp edges….

  14. This post was like a dropped, half finished parcel of fish and chips that attracted a mob of blue-billed gulls, squawking and squabbling till the last chip, flapping off in a flurry of batter-crumbs and guano splats. Those gulls have the scent of Little in their Bill’s and will return every time he’s written about here, till we tire of their flocking nonsense.

  15. HDCAFriendlyTroll 16

    So given what it’s saying I take it that this is one of those “accurate” polls then?

    Anyway Labour is up. Congrats. But you’re still faced with an unpopular Labour leader with all the charm of soggy week-old weetbix. Honestly, given the Willy Jackson fiasco Andrew Little is not fit to be the leader of any opposition party let alone prime minister.

  16. Michael 17

    It is a step in the right direction but it might be too Little, too late (sorry about the pun). We really need to see a trend putting Labour/Greens/? ahead of the right bloc before gloating. As it stands, I think Winston would probably go with the Nats and give them a fourth term, in exchange for … ?

  17. Andrew 18

    Do we have a Maoist party in Parliament?

    • mac1 18.1

      We have a Maori Party, a Moreforus Party, a Metoo Party, a Meagre Party, a neo-Malthusian Party and a MeFirst Party, but not a Maoist one, I’m afraid. We also have Labour.

  18. Andrew 19

    I believe in the application of Malthus’s theories to the bourgeoisie in the first world.

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