web analytics

Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:21 am, February 18th, 2008 - 25 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

cb-171107-450.jpg

The polls seem to be all over the place at the moment, with last night’s TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll showing National out to a 19 point lead over Labour.

That’s quite a swing from recent polls, which have shown the gap between the two major parties narrowing to within ten points, and although Colmar Brunton has a tendency to inflate National’s vote that alone doesn’t explain a swing of this size.

Labour’s definitely entering election year as the underdog – maybe it’s time they started campaigning like it.

25 comments on “Colmar Brunton poll”

  1. The Prophet 1

    That’s quite a swing from recent polls, which have shown the gap between the two major parties narrowing to within ten points

    Tane could you please show me which recent polls show Labour within 10 points?

    Otherwise maybe you should change your post to say –

    That’s quite a swing from a recent poll, which have shows the gap between the two major parties narrowing to within ten points

  2. Monty 2

    Dead Cat Bounce. And then of course the brewing story of Ministerial Warrants for Cash may hurt Labour even more. Calrk who in spite of a high IQ and photographic memory “cannot remember” the discussion. I do have to give her credit for clouding the waters – but the reality is that one recollection is very clear and the other(Clark’s) is conveniently hazy – but at least it cannot be proved she lied.

    So the good news continues for the Nats – Key remains looking Prime Ministerial while the best that Labour has is suffering from memory lapse (as happens when you are in the shit)

    The more Key is on TV and the radio the higher his popularity – so come the election when he has even media time (or even more than Clark) will mean that his popularity will continue to improve –

    I think Laour’s best hope now is to try and minimise the damage and work the list so that all the dead wood is cut because at this time they are going to need every good MP while iin opposition to try and rebuild for the next winable election some 12 years away (and it will take all that time to clear out the Labour ranks and bring in enough experienced MPs to mount a credible challenge to the Natural Party of Government.

  3. outofbed 3

    I could live with the National Party winning the election.
    After all one has to respect democracy
    However winning by being economical with the truth and hiding
    your core beliefs behind a hollow smile, is frankly just not cricket.
    Be honest and up front and see if people like what you stand for

    In my opinion only the Greens do this

  4. Policy Parrot 4

    Hows Smithers Monty?

  5. outofbed said “I could live with the National Party winning the election.
    After all one has to respect democracy
    However winning by being economical with the truth and hiding
    your core beliefs behind a hollow smile, is frankly just not cricket.’

    So you’re not a fan of Helen Clark’s First XI then oob?

  6. Monty 6

    Oh dear – the Labour Party is imploding and quite correctly the Nats have their tails up and in the air – the good news continues for the Blue team .

    In addition, the leftards continue to accuse the Nats of their own worst crimes. If you want to look at being economical with the truth then look o further than Clark not remembering an embarrassing conversation about Ministerial warrants for cash (as she said on Holmes this morning)

    The Greens of course are quite prepared to sell their values in pursuit of power – and for this look no further than the EFA. While it is good that outofbed respects democracy – it is a shame the Labour politicians over whom you lefties fawn and worship do not,

  7. Daveo 7

    The EFA is completely consistent with the Greens’ principle that democracy is for the many, not the few. Don’t think that just because you don’t understand the difference between restricting spending and restricting speech no one else does.

  8. “the good news continues for the Blue team”

    as National favoured to win Rugby World Cup

  9. Monty 9

    Daveo – the thing is Labour drove through the EFA without wide cross party support. They undertook constitutional law change in back room deals with barely enough members to get 51% support. That is one of the disgraces of the EFA and any party that did not demand wide support from both the community and from within parliament deserves to be punished at the next election.

    The Greens supported Labour right through this most self serving legislation. Because of the parnoria from a law abiding but weird religious group, the greens have put a price on freedom and expression of speech.

    Do not try and defend the indefensible – you will lose every time.

    I believe that because fot he EFA Labour will now find most people have made up their mind how they will vote in the election. Those people will not change their vote from National back to the left (who have done thir time and now want a chage)

  10. outofbed 10

    “I want a chage” that is french for shag isn’t it ?

  11. r0b 11

    the thing is Labour drove through the EFA without wide cross party support.

    Monty is a liar. The majority of parties in parliament supported the EFA for the majority of the debate.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10481042&pnum=0

    For the majority of the debate it was 5 parties in favour, 3 parties opposed (with one of those opposed, the Maori party, supporting the principles of the EFA, but not some of the actual drafting).

  12. Ex Labour Voter 12

    Monty isn’t a liar, r0b. You are a liar. The Bill was passed by four of the eight “parties” in Parliament, on a bare majority of MPs in the House. The parties supporting the Bill included Labour, New Zealand First, the Greens, and the one-man band of Jim Anderton. If Jim Anderton is a political party, then so too is Taito Phillip Field, who opposed the Bill.

    Those people opposing the Bill included National, Act, the Maori Party (if you read Hone Harawira’s speech, it could have come from any opposition MP), and United Future. Gordon Copeland was against the Bill also. There was no cross-party support for the Bill.

  13. r0b 13

    Monty isn’t a liar, r0b. You are a liar.

    Three deep breaths ELV, and read what I wrote.

    Bills pass through many stages, and for most of them the EFA was supported by 5 / 8 parties. It is true that United Future (Peter Dunne) changed its mind at the final reading, but that doesn’t change the fact that it supported it for the majority of the process. Which is what I wrote. Read Dunne’s opinions in The Herald article linked.

    the one-man band of Jim Anderton. If Jim Anderton is a political party, then so too is Taito Phillip Field

    And Act is a 2 person band, so what? A political party is a political party, it has a legal existence, a certain number of members, and so on. The Progressives are a political party, so is ACT, Philip Field is not. Sorry.

    The majority of parties in parliament supported the EFA for the majority of the debate. Monty is a liar.

  14. outofbed 14

    Surely there will be a time when Key and co have to face up to the tough questions
    I guess the Tory strategy is to smile and say nothing and keep the momentum going till the election campaign.
    I think however partisan one might be, its obvious Clarke is capable of destroying Key in any debate
    Key is a lightweight The question is, will the strategy get them over the line?
    I have a strong feeling that it won’t. It maybe wishful thinking, but I don’t like the thought that in NZ, being economical with the truth will win an election.
    Time will tell I guess

  15. Ex Labour Voter 15

    Daveo – the thing is Labour drove through the EFA without wide cross party support. They undertook constitutional law change in back room deals with barely enough members to get 51% support.

    That’s what Monty wrote, Rob. There wasn’t wide cross-party support. The Maori Party did not support the Bill. It was not about the wording of the Bill. Read Hone Harawira’s speech, and ask yourself honestly if his concern was about the Bill’s drafting.

    Monty is absolutely correct that the Labour Party rammed the Bill through with barely 51% support of the House. That is not wide cross-party support. No amount of spinning from you, saying: “Oh, but Peter Dunne’s party only changed their mind at the last minute”, and “Jim Anderton is a party, but Gordon Copeland and Taito Phillip Field aren’t a party”, is a nonsense.

    You deliberately tried to play duplicitous maths from the beginning when you first said that the Bill had the majority support of the majority of parties in the House. That wasn’t true. The Bill passed without a majority of parties, and only a bare majority of members.

  16. Historian 16

    If the Electoral Finance Act is so unpopular, why have National lost support in the Colmar Brunton poll? Why have the Greens gone up?

  17. r0b 17

    There wasn’t wide cross-party support.

    Please read The Herald article linked. Actually read it ELV:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10481042&pnum=0

  18. Draco TB 18

    Because of the parnoria from a law abiding but weird religious group,

    Which went to great lengths to get around the intent of the law as it was. Just because it was legal doesn’t mean that it was right.

    Do not try and defend the indefensible – you will lose every time.

    You should probably start taking your own advice.

  19. Phil 19

    “If the Electoral Finance Act is so unpopular, why have National lost support in the Colmar Brunton poll? Why have the Greens gone up?”

    Hmmmm…. Maybe because it’s one poll, showing abnormal results to others around it… Maybe because other events are introducing different ‘noise’ to the statistical dataset… Maybe because there is a compositional effect of different methodology…

    If you couldn’t come up with some of these, you must be a pretty shite historian.

  20. Historian 20

    “Maybe because it’s one poll, showing abnormal results to others around it …”

    Ah, I caught a good-sized snapper. No need to throw that one back.

  21. Gooner 21

    “…In my opinion only the Greens do this”.

    And Act.

  22. Murray 22

    What does campaigning like an underdog involve? Please enlighten me. My guess is mud slinging and personal attacks. I think Labour would be on a very slippery slope if they attempted this line of attack.

  23. r0b 23

    I think Espinser has cracked Labour’s campaign plan…

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4405821a1861.html

  24. outofbed 24

    There’s a Plan ?
    Thank fuck for that

  25. r0b 25

    Of course there’s a plan. We got a consultant in. Bald guy called Rick. He promised us that the plan was particularly cunning!

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

No feed items found.

  • Minister of Defence to visit counterparts in US and Canada
    The Minister of Defence, Ron Mark, departed today for the United States and Canada where he will meet with his counterparts.  While in Canada Minister Mark will meet with his counterpart, Minister of National Defence Harjit Sajjan.  “New Zealand and Canada are close friends, and share an instinctive like-mindedness on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago
  • Government to deliver family carers $2000 pay rise, expand scheme to spouses this year
    The Coalition Government is delivering this year the changes to Funded Family Care the disability sector has long-asked for, says Associate Minister of Health Jenny Salesa. “Today we are announcing the details of our big changes to Funded Family Care, including an annual average pay boost of $2,246.40 for funded ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Ko te reo kua mū: Piri Sciascia
    Minister for Māori Development Nanaia Mahuta joins te ao Māori in their sorrow as they learn of the loss of one of the great orators and spokespersons of a generation – Piri Sciascia.  “The son of Pōrangahau was a staunch advocate for Māori development and served his people for over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Minister opens new ecosanctuary at Cape Farewell
    A new ecosanctuary with a predator proof fence on Golden Bay’s Cape Farewell, which will restore a safe home for sea birds, rare native plants, giant snails, and geckos, was officially opened today by the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “There has been a fantastic community effort supported by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Pacific partners work together to provide additional support to Australia
    The NZDF continues to support the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles fires in Victoria and New South Wales, including by transporting Republic of Fiji Military engineers from Nadi to Australia, announced Defence Minister Ron Mark. On Saturday morning a NZDF Boeing 757 will depart New Zealand to uplift ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Kaikōura $10.88 million boost in tourism & business
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $10.88 million to boost business and tourism opportunities in Kaikōura, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Regional Economic Development, Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. As part of the Kaikōura Marina Development Programme, the following two projects will receive PGF funding: A $9.88 million investment to begin the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Govt accounts in surplus, debt remains low
    The Government’s books are in good shape with the accounts in surplus and expenses close to forecast, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown accounts for the five months to November. The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was above forecast by $0.7 billion resulting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Auckland focus for first Police graduation of 2020
    The number of Police on the Auckland frontline is increasing with the graduation today of a special locally-trained wing of new constables. Police Minister Stuart Nash says the graduation of eighteen officers from Recruit Wing 333-5 means that more than 1900 new Police have been deployed since the Coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Wairarapa gets $7.11m PGF water boost
    The Provincial Growth Fund is putting $7.11 million into creating a sustainable water supply for Wairarapa, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The following two projects will receive Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) funding: A $7 million investment in Wairarapa Water Limited for the pre-construction development of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Progress with new Police station in Mahia
    Community safety and crime prevention in the East Coast community of Mahia has moved forward with the opening of a new Police station to serve the growing coastal settlement. Police Minister Stuart Nash has officially opened the new station, which was relocated almost 20 kilometres along the coast from the nearby ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Plans to protect the future of whitebaiting announced
    With several native whitebait species in decline the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage has today released proposals to standardise and improve management of whitebait across New Zealand. “The need for action for a healthy whitebait fishery has never been greater,” Eugenie Sage said.  “Four of the six whitebait species are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New resource for schools to increase awareness and understanding of climate change
    A new Ministry of Education resource available for schools in 2020 will increase awareness and understanding of climate change, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The resource, Climate Change – prepare today, live well tomorrow, will help students understand the effects of climate change at a local, national and global ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Getting more out of our most productive firms
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has approved the terms of reference for an Inquiry into the economic contribution of New Zealand's frontier firms. Frontier firms are the most productive firms in the domestic economy within their own industry. “These firms are important as they diffuse new technologies and business practices into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZDF sends more support to Australia
    The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is sending an Environmental Health Team, a Primary Health Care Team and a Chaplain to Australia, boosting New Zealand support for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles bush fires in Victoria and New South Wales, Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand joins partners in calling for full investigation into air crash in Iran
    Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters says that developments suggesting a surface-to-air missile is responsible for the downing of the Ukrainian International Airlines flight in Iran is disastrous news. “New Zealand offers its deepest sympathies to the families of the 176 victims. It is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Staying connected to Australian agriculture
    Agriculture Minister, Damien O’Connor, says the Ministry for Primary Industries is continuing to stay connected to federal authorities in Australia as devastating fires affect the country.  “The Ministry is using an existing trans-Tasman forum for discussions on the agricultural impact of the fires and the future recovery phase,” says Damien ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Investment in schools – a commitment to communities
    Thousands of school-age children, their teachers and wider communities are benefiting from the Government’s multi-million dollar investment upgrading and renewing schools, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “We want New Zealand to be the best place to be a child and that means learning in warm, comfortable and modern classrooms,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Defence Force sends support to Australia
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark today announced New Zealand is sending three Royal New Zealand Air Force NH90 helicopters and crew, and two NZ Army Combat Engineer Sections as well as a command element to support the Australian Defence Force efforts in tackling the Australian fires.  The New Zealand Defence Force ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Better access to books for blind and low vision citizens on World Braille Day
    "Today is World Braille Day and I am delighted to announce that an international treaty giving blind and low vision New Zealanders access to books and literary works comes into force today,” Minister for Disability Issues Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “Today the Marrakesh Treaty and the associated amendments to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand to send further firefighter support to Australia
    The New Zealand Government is sending a further 22 firefighters to help fight the Australian fires. “The devastation caused by these fires is taking a substantial toll on our Australian neighbours and we will continue to do what we can to assist as they deal with this extremely dynamic, dangerous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Reducing the cost of education
    Twenty-two more schools have opted into the Government’s policy of providing $150 per child to schools who don’t ask parents for donations– bringing the total number of schools in the policy to 1,585. The Ministry of Education has accepted late opt ins past the November 14 deadline from schools that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Road deaths lower in 2019, but still more work to do
    “As we enter the new decade, my thoughts are with the families, friends and communities of the 353 people who lost their lives in road crashes last year. While the number of deaths is lower than in 2018 (377), this is still a staggering loss of life,” Duty Minister Iain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • PM congratulates New Year 2020 Honours recipients
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated the diverse group of New Zealanders recognised for their contributions to the country and their communities in the New Year 2020 Honours List.   The list of 180 honours recipients includes three Dames and three Knights Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Justice Minister congratulates first Māori Supreme Court judge on New Year’s Honour
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has congratulated The Honourable Justice Joe Williams for receiving a knighthood for services to the state. Sir Joe Williams has been appointed as a Knight Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit in the New Year 2020 Honours List. “Sir Joe Williams has made an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Year honours for top sportspeople
    Twenty-one of New Zealand’s top sportspeople, coaches and leaders in the sporting community have been recognised in the New Year 2020 Honours List. The Silver Ferns coach Noeline Taurua has been made a Dame Companion and the former All Blacks Steve Hansen has been made a Knight Companion of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Leading architect of Zero Carbon Bill honoured
    It’s great to see ordinary New Zealanders doing extraordinary things, Minister for Climate Change James Shaw today said in response to the news that Lisa McLaren is included in the New Year 2020 Honours List for her exceptional work leading the campaign for the Zero Carbon Bill. Lisa McLaren was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Social entrepreneurs and innovation leads Pacific contribution
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the New Year 2020 Honours List highlights the valuable contribution Pacific social entrepreneurs and innovators make to New Zealand, the Pacific region and the world. “The standout common factor that underlines their contribution to Aotearoa is the value they place in their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Service to birds and bush recognised in New Year Honours
    Decades of dedication to Aotearoa’s unique birds, landscapes, and native eels is recognised in the New Year 2020 Honours List said Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “I’m delighted that the decades of dedication to conservation, and fantastic leadership in giving nature a helping hand is being acknowledged,” said Eugenie Sage. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago