Confidence in govt falls on Hobbit debacle

Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, November 10th, 2010 - 45 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows confidence in government plummeted during the Hobbit debacle. The poll was conducted over the two weeks between Peter Jackson suddenly claiming the Hobbit would go overseas and the Hobbit Enabling Act being rushed through Parliament. It shows confidence in government falling to a new low for Key’s administration. At the beginning of the year, nearly three-quarters of the population agreed the country was heading in the right direction. Barely 50% do now.

Confidence in government is falling close to where it was when the Labour government lost the last election.

The party polling numbers bounce around as you would expect but the trend there is also clear. The gap is gradually closing.

Since, March National has polled below 50% as often as above. The spikes above 50% are becoming less frequent, the forays below 50% are getting deeper and longer. Labour’s core support is solid around 33% but the challenge is to push it higher. Last year, there were dips below 30% where it looked like base support could be eroded. Now, the spikes are upside, into the mid 30s.

The Greens continue to poll strongly around 8% (notice how there’s none of those tired old media comments about them not making 5% this time round). Meanwhile, ACT support is whithering away, which will leave National with real problems forming a coalition. Especially if Peter Dunne loses his seat

As the trend continues to close, Key is going to have even more reason to go for an early election. If you were him, would you wait another 13 months on these numbers?

Despite the way too many media commentators have automatically written off Labour since the last election, this is going to be a close fought race. With Labour/Green polling in the low 40s and National/ACT around 50%, and a closing trend, it only takes a few percentage points shift to change the result. That’s the kind of shift that could easily happen in a campaign dominated by a double-dip recession and National’s privatisation agenda – for instance.

45 comments on “Confidence in govt falls on Hobbit debacle”

  1. M 1

    ‘With Labour/Green polling in the low 40s and National/ACT around 50%, and a closing trend, it only takes a few percentage points shift to change the result.’

    Hope it happens soon – even the RWNJs at work are really grumbling about the massive ramping up of food prices, but will they be able to join the dots?

    It’s only going to take the next step down in the US, which can’t be too far off, to have a flow on effect here with the ensuing cut,cut,cut that is the only tool in the NACT toolbox.

    As an aside, I know someone who has speculated against our currency to the tune of several hundred thousand thinking it would drop massively against the USD and so far has reaped some gut-wrenching losses but is grimly hanging on hoping for a miracle – can’t see it at this rate.

    • Lanthanide 1.1

      If I had that kind of money to play around with, I’d be betting on oil going up.

      Should’ve bet on the AUS appreciating vs NZ, that seemed a bit more certain than NZ depreciating vs US.

    • outofbed 1.2

      With Labour/Green polling in the low 40s

      Which makes a bold assumption!

  2. JayDee 2

    Smile and Wave will be “comfortable” with that!

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Insight: when ordinary middle class NZ’ers on $40K-$80K p.a. see their parents, friends, their brothers and sisters, going on strike, giving up weekend time going on protest marches they know that something is going wrong in our society.

    They may not know the exact cause and effect, or where blame lies, but an uneasy feeling comes on.

    Yes the unions might take a hit but then they see that their family members are out there on the line. They know that this is not about nothing, its about something. Even if its not entirely clear what that is, people are angry, and more importantly, people they know are angry. About something.

    And ‘smile and wave’ always seems to be in the middle of that ‘something’. In other words, we are seeing the first signs of shit sticking.

    The Battle of 2011 is ON.

    • Jim Nald 3.1

      Make that:

      “… see their parents, friends, their brothers and sisters, EX-WORKMATES AND FRIENDS OFF OVERSEAS, EG TO AUSTRALIA OR ASIA, ..”

      Btw, I am considering leaving for overseas as well … the last straw will be if NACTS get in for a second term and drive their agenda further to cut into working people’s livelihood and make NZ more vulnerable in trying to cope with emerging global changes and the economy.

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1

        I know parents who are just desperate not to have their teenagers head off overseas, or choosing to do their university years in Australia.

  4. Pat 4

    I’m not sure about the Hobbit connection. The poll was conducted after the Blackcaps disastrous tour of Bangladesh.

    • Vicky32 4.1

      That shows that ‘Kiwis’ have a strange way of looking at things, if the outcome for a bunch of cricketists can cause a government to go down! WTF?????
      Deb

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        In that case the All Blacks at the RWC will either promote Key to Emperor of NZ or send him off drawn and quartered.

        By the way, I’m sure Pat was kidding. Well, hopefully anyway.

  5. gingercrush 5

    Who cares what the Greens poll nobody actually believes they’ll get whatever percentage they’re polling. That 8.5% may as well be treated as 6%

    And you’re a fucking tool. Well done for taking the confidence rating at a low no doubt we won’t see a fucking word stated when the confidence rating once again goes upwards. Just like the party support goes up then down then up then down. You really do need to shut the fuck up about trends. You don’t have a fucking clue about trends.

    Of course after the 2008 election National was going to reach unrealistic numbers while Labour in turn after being knocked from government would see their polling fall below what they would get at a General Election. Its to be expected. The numbers have simply reverted back to more realistic numbers and I can’t see that they’re particularly good for the left. With the Greens polling numbers they never reach and Labour outside of the Sep20-Oct3 can’t break out from 34%.

    Sure the numbers aren’t dire for the left and National has a problem in coalition partners etc but I sure wouldn’t be celebrating if I was the left. You have an idiot in Phil Goff and an arrogant Labour party who will surely set themselves up for embarassment come 2011.

  6. insider 6

    Was there a poll of confidence in the CTU carried out at hte same time? That no doubt would see their stocks rising if your theory were true…

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Public confidence in the CTU is relatively unimportant for the Battle of 2011.

      Public confidence in Key and the National Government however, is.

      I feel a panic pulse coming from over on the Right.

      • Pat 6.1.1

        “I feel a panic pulse coming from over on the Right.”

        If you take your hand off it, you’ll notice that what you felt was something entirely different.

      • insider 6.1.2

        It’s important as a proof point if you think the hobbit is the cause of a poll shift down. I don’t think it was – I think it’s an overly hopeful correlation by Marty.

        I could equally argue that the “NZ going in the right direction” poll could be down because people are concerned at the antics of the unions and see their actions as a sign of bad things to come. Given generally reported reaction to the whole issue, I’d suggest that has a bit more evidence behhind it although I wouldn’t want to put any money on it.

        • Lanthanide 6.1.2.1

          I agree.

          Also note that the question isn’t “what is your confidence in the government”, but “do you think NZ is heading in the right direction”. I’d say a low result for that reflects more on union antics than it does on the government.

          • felix 6.1.2.1.1

            It’s true that it is a very vague question, one that can be answered on almost any basis… BUT it’s also true that supporters of the govt always trumpet a high result as a vote of confidence in the govt.

          • Pascal's bookie 6.1.2.1.2

            Same poll saw national drop two percent though eh.

            But yeah, I’ve got issues about reading too much into this poll, as I’ve said before.

            On the wording

            “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

            That, to me at least, seems to be biased towards a positive result. You are asked to choose between ‘generally,… the right direction’ and ‘seriously… the wrong direction’.

            • felix 6.1.2.1.2.1

              Yep, heavily weighted. You only need to feel mildly positive to answer “yes” but have to be totally pissed off to say “no”.

              • Jim Nald

                Seems weighted to me for at least this reason – there is no qualifying adverb in the first limb but there is a loaded qualifying adverb in the second.

                “are heading in the right direction” cf. “are SERIOUSLY heading in the wrong direction”

                Would be more neutral with the removal of “seriously”.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Knowing the slant of the question’s wording towards favouring the current Government, we can read the results of the poll a bit differently. And that makes it quite interesting eh?

              • Lanthanide

                I would honestly answer ‘yes’ to the question as worded. If they removed ‘seriously’ then I’d probably answer ‘no’.

                Because I know the question is interpreted as ‘support for the government’ I would answer ‘no’.

                • Bright Red

                  it’s Roy Morgan who calls it the Government Confidence Rating, and lots of other foreign pollsters do it too. I guess incumbent govts have a harder time getting re-elected when fewer people think the country is going in the right direction.

        • freedom 6.1.2.2

          why don’t they simply change the question to
          ‘Is The National Government taking NZ in the right direction?” and remove the ambiguity

          then, “Are the unions taking NZ in the right direction?” etc etc

          if stats are supposedly about accurate representation of data then the initial data surely is the important bit

    • grumpy 6.2

      I think that will become obvious when the polls come up for the period after the Hobbit was sorted.

  7. tc 7

    Interesting even though it’s another one of those rubbery polls, one thing that is certainly occuring is the unemployment, wages growth, immigration trends, price rises and continued amateur performance of sideshow and his ministers (ineffective laws/trolley wreck etc) is making up folks minds that voted for that nice Mr Key and all his lovely promises that they were well and truly conned.

    There’s no plan, ability or even intention to make NZ better for most of society just the same old flog off assets, reward the already well off even more and crush the proles….folk who’ve lived through the 80’s on already knew this however alot of new kiwis didn’t but they know all to well now.

    The hobbit debacle showed key at his best, clueless, a shite negotiator who happily gave up more taxpayers money for a movie that wasn’t going anywhere else anyway and passed laws that muddied not clarified matters.

  8. gobsmacked 8

    The government are trying very hard to lose the election.

    The opposition aren’t trying very hard to win it.

    Stay-at-home party set for a landslide.

    • Lanthanide 8.1

      I’d agree with that. But chances are both are going to turn around next year.

      Peter Dunne’s income splitting is going to be the cherry for the budget, and not much else besides.

    • Colonial Viper 8.2

      Yes Labour is not quite there yet but I do think it is gearing up quite nicely. Mana is a practice run, Labour has activists from all over the country there getting properly stuck in. And there is plenty of work going on around the party developing the details of the “Two New Zealands/Better Jobs, Higher Incomes/Children” platform described quite clearly at Conference.

      Stay-at-home party set for a landslide.

      Yeah, not the Labour folks I know.

  9. Adrian 9

    Income splitting is not a goer, it is just unaffordable in the next God knows how long.

  10. salsy 10

    Dont forget the truism, As Auckland Goes – So Goes the Country… If anything, that should scare the sh*t out of the Nats. Especially when John Key wont hand over any money for rail, but that nice guy phil goff *has* promised it, oh and with trains made in Dunedin because that new Labour government are commited to building our economy, not Asia’s.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      What Labour need to do know is propose a timeline which gets Dunedin built trains to AKL real fast. For the first traunch of trains that may mean doing a bit less and importing a bit more but that will change for future batches.

      • salsy 10.1.1

        Claire Curran made an interseting point, that $500 million Kiwirail $$ taken straight out the NZ economy. Jobs and investment in technologies handed over to Korea, but no outcry. The same amount threatened to leave via the hobbit and huge outcry. Kiwis have lost their sense of pride and ownership of their own assets and technologies. That is what needs fueling..

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.1

          Add aviation fuel and watch it burn, my man, its the Battle of 2011.

        • Frank Macskasy 10.1.1.2

          “Claire Curran made an interseting point, that $500 million Kiwirail $$ taken straight out the NZ economy. Jobs and investment in technologies handed over to Korea, but no outcry. ”

          Indeed.

          Hence this little piece I write a week or so ago…

          ““No Middle Ground on Middle Earth”

          by Frank Macskasy

          If ever mass hysteria gripped this country, it was no better demonstrated that the last few weeks, when an industrial dispute erupted between Peter Jackson and Actor’s Equity. The reaction from every segment of New Zealand society was one of collective naked fury not seen since the Under Arm Incident of 1981 or as divisive as the Springbok Tour, in the same year.

          A simple dispute between Employer and Union turned into a near-panic and events spiralled unbelievably out of control, taking all the main players by surprise. There were street marches; Youtube videos of Union officials harassed by anonymous video-photographers; threats; counter-threats; abusive emails(again mostly anonymous); newspaper editorials; and Talkback radio and internet chatrooms that demanded blood and the sacrifice of First Born.

          All over a couple of movies about hairy-footed fantasy characters.

          Actors Equity, to it’s credit realised that the ire of the Village Mob had been aroused; were screaming for retribution; and duly called off any and all industrial action. Mostly to no avail, as reason had taken leave of most New Zealanders, it seems.

          Finally, our esteemed Prime Minister and Typical All-Round Nice Bloke, John Key, faced off against a high-powered gang of Hollywood executives from Warner Bros. He went into the meeting declaring beforehand that there would be “no bidding war” with the likes of Slovakia or Hungary to retain the movies.

          He came out some hours later confirming that tax-payers would be paying $85 million to Warner Bros, and we would be changing our labour laws to comply with their wishes. The Mafia couldn’t have asked for a better outcome.

          But was on Earth caused such a nationwide, feverish hysteria from so many normally easy-going Kiwis? What sparked such an outrage that saw local actors threatened with violence and even death? Even Robyn Malcolm stated she would be selling her home – such was the naked hatred being expressed toward members of New Zealand’s Actor’s Equity.

          To be clear, this mass hysteria has little to do with an industrial dispute.

          It has little to do with the prospect of losing a $650 million dollar venture to Eastern Europe.

          And to be brutally clear, most folk couldn’t care tuppence about local actors and technicians losing their jobs in the process.

          After all, New Zealanders have stood by quietly and meekly as company after company relocated their manufacturing base and call centres tro China, Australia, Fiji, India, and elsewhere. Certainly not one single New Zealanders marched in the streets when Fisher & Paykel moved their manufacturing to China or when Telstra Clear moved part of it’s call centre to The Philippines; as did many other companies.

          Since the late 1980s, tens of thousands of jobs have been lost overseas, and most of our manufacturing sector has followed suit. Even our farmland is now up for grabs (more on this in a moment).

          So obviously, New Zealanders are not to fussed about the ‘gutting’ of our economy. It has been happening for over twenty years and mostly with practiced indifferance by The Kiwi Masses.

          So what was it that stirred the blood of ordinary New Zealand men and women to boiling point?

          The answer, I would suggest, lies in our sense of self; our national identity.

          Quite simply – we don’t have one.

          Once upon a time, we took pride in our rugby team, the All Blacks. Players such as Colin Meads, Sid Going, Brian Lahore, Ian Kirkpatrick were the stuff of legends. We were a tiny nation, but our team of fifteen black-garbed heroes could venture forth and thrash teams from far more numerically-populated nations. Australia, Britain, South Africa, France – all fell before The Mighty Blacks.

          Then, as rugby became commercialised and slightly less “heroic”; splintered into various other ‘codes’; tickets became outrageously expensive; and the names became more South Pacific than South Island – we slowly ceased to identify ourselves with the game. We became more sophisticated and were tempted with other sporting distractions in which we could take a small measure of national pride.

          Also once upon a time, we took pride in being a rural country that could out-produce any other agricultural and farming country on this planet. Our archetypal hero, Fred Dagg, was a simple character with common sense wisdom and good-natured, blokish, humour.

          But we outgrew Fred Dagg; John Clark moved to Australia; and our farmers began to speak with American, Australian, and Chinese accents.

          We were a nation left with not many heroes, except for randy doctors and nurses on “Shortland Street” and high-flying financiers such as Faye & Richwhite and Allan Hawkins. Except that Faye & Richwhite were eventually investigated by the Securities Commission for insider-trading; the NZ Railways they purchased was looted and our rail system fell apart through lack of maintenance; and Allan Hawkins ended up in jail. The doctors and nurses on “Shortland Street” carried on with their amourous activities.

          Then almost overnight, a new hero burst upon the scene: Peter Jackson.

          Jackson started off in 1987 with his Z Grade splatter-movie, “Bad Taste”. He quickly ran out of money and required tax-payer bail-out to the tune of $235,000 from the New Zealand Film Commission.

          The film achieved a small measure of cult-status and kick-started Jackson’s career. His subsequent films were popular, employing unique and charming aspects of Kiwi culture and humour.

          In 2001, Jackson’s first installment of “The Lord of The Rings” was released and became an international sensation. The eventual-trilogy earned Jackson Hollywood accolades; millions of dollars; and more Oscar Awards than could be carried in Fred Dagg’s old wheelbarrow.

          Indeed, the entire country shared in the radiant glory. New Zealand was suddenly the center of international attention, if not most of the Known Universe. To be a Kiwi was cool. Tourists flocked to our country, eager to see the mountains; the rivers; the forests; and Hobbits roaming freely. Aotearoa became Hobbiton.

          The Mountain Troll stood guard in Wellington’s civic square. A hero’s parade at the World Premiere of “Return of the King” wound it’s way through Wellington’s streets. Dragons adorned The Embassy and Readings Theatres. A giant arrow was cleverly plunged into the side of a Courtney Place pub. And a giant statue of Gollum greeted visitors to Wellington’s International Air Terminal.

          We suddenly knew who we were; we were the mythical land of Middle Earth. We were the nation that produced a man who could complete three complex movies, back-to-back, reaping hundreds of millions in profit in the process.

          It put New Zealand on the map and our national and personal pride was boundless.

          When the trilogy won a combined total of seventeen Oscars, Billy Crystal was moved to say, at the 2004 Academy Award ceremonies; “It’s now official. There is no one left in New Zealand to thank.” .That was the point at which Kiwis experienced a collective orgasm.

          As many of the protest-placards stated during the recent “Save The Hobbit” marches; “New Zealand IS Middle Earth”.

          So when Actor’s Equity began their industrial action at the end of September, they were not just taking on Peter Jackson. Nor were they taking on Warner Bros. No, Actor’s Equity was “attacking” New Zealand’s deepest, cultural psyche.

          New Zealanders now identified so closely with hobbits and Middle Earth that any suggestion that movie productions be moved offshore was akin to wounding our collective heart. No wonder we responded with such irrational anger and hatred; our very national identity was under threat and as any psychologist will tell you, assaulting a person’s psyche can have far more dire consequences than simply biffing him one.

          New Zealand was not about to lose something we identified so closely with. (Because we had nothing else left in which to express our national pride.) And certainly not through industrial action led by an Australian, through an Australian trade union – which in itself raised stark issues surrounding our rivalry with that country. Australia was (in)famous for attempting to steal our cultural icons and now it appeared that they were after ‘Our Precious’, The Hobbit.

          Yes, it seems we are that insecure.

          So when John Key bent over backwards to the Wide Boys from Warner Bros, he was prostituting this country because he had no alternative. Far better to “take one for the team” than an alternative that, conceivably, could have resulted in people actually being harmed or killed.

          Yes, the hatred was that palpable.

          For a brief moment in our history, we went collectively mad. We were Bilbo Baggins faced with the awful prospect of losing The Ring forever.

          And like Bilbo, we just couldn’t bear to part with The Precious. We were The Precious and without it, we were faced with a cultural emptiness.

          We are indeed slaves to The One Ring.

          • felix 10.1.1.2.1

            Beautifully put.

          • Carol 10.1.1.2.2

            Frank, your points on loss of jobs overseas to other industries, are very significant, and need to be repeated as widely as possible in NZ.

            On our national identity: you link it with “national pride”, which I think is maybe more of a significant factor than the identity issue. This is because, the main screen production in NZ that stimulates comments about it representing characters that Kiwis can identify with, is Outrageous Fortune. And even though Robyn Malcolm has been the audience choice as sexiest woman on TV for many years, because of her role as Cheryl West, somehow Malcolm’s support of the actors’ cause did not trump the Jackson-Middle Earth generated hysteria. And Jackson’s Hollywood films have less in them that Kiwis can identify with, at least at a character and narrative level. Middle Earth is championed, not so much for it’s representation of NZ, but because it “puts NZ on the International map”: ie it has to do with national pride.

            The question is, why is that “pride” in an internationally recognised sense of a very superficial national identity, more important than our deeper and more personalised sense of a local identity? It does seem to have to do with a “loss of national identity”, as you say Frank, but a long side the loss of a national identity at an international level, we do have at least one local production that has constructed a sense of Kiwiness for a large proportion of New Zealanders.

        • g says 10.1.1.3

          surely some mileage can be made out of this exporting of money instead of giving the local economy a boost.
          hopefully someone is keeping their powder dry to use nearer ballot time

  11. Sean Brooks 11

    Unless there is a major scandel or things really turn to custard, there is no way national will be a one term government.

    • Colonial Viper 11.1

      Both are likely to happen, and at that crucial stage Key will be ousted as his ‘light weight’ demeanour will have become a distinct liability to National credibility in tough times.

  12. g says 12

    winston could be both of those….
    also if the voters in mr dunne electorate were to realise that he is not the family friendly chap he makes out and that he will do whatever with whoever to keep on as an mp….
    act just needs to keep it together for a bit longer…
    (if act is the answer we need to ask different questions)

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    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    5 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    5 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    5 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    6 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    7 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    1 week ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    1 week ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    2 weeks ago

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