Some big decisions are due to happen today. What happens to Auckland’s Covid status? Should the lockdown level be reduced or should the Government think about putting it back up?
At least at a superficial level it appears that Lockdown level 3 has not worked. Yesterday there were 60 new infections. The R value has been assessed at greater than one. If it keeps growing we could have a surge of infections that will place considerable pressure on the health system.
At the same time our vaccination rates have surged. New Zealand has resumed top spot in the OECD in terms of daily vaccinations per head of population and with 81% of the population having had at least one dose the country is looking to be in good shape.
From Rowan Quinn at Radio New Zealand:
There were 56 cases in the city yesterday, the highest since 1 September, with three in Waikato and one in the Bay of Plenty.
But there was also hope, as first-dose vaccination rates hit 86 percent.
Covid-19 modeller professor Shaun Hendy said as cases trend upwards, the outbreak was at a critical point.
“It is possible that we could end up in the triple digits so that’s something that the government should be considering and it should be developing a plan for what happens … because that will put real strain on the health system in Auckland,” he said.
Numbers like that could require a dip back to alert level 4 as a circuit breaker, he said.
And there was another worrying number emerging – there were still about 400 case contacts health authorities had yet to get in touch with, to check that they know to isolate and get a test.
And the handling of the borders must be causing intense analysis with separate proposals that a hard line be drawn across the central of the North Island or that the South Island be isolated gaining traction. Again from Radio New Zealand:
Epidemiologist Nick Wilson and his team were calling on the government to tighten the border around Auckland.
Only those doing the most essential jobs should be allowed out and they should have to stop for 15 minutes at the border for a rapid antigen test, he said.
“It does seem that some people are getting across that border for pretty flimsy reasons and documentation,” he said.
In the meantime, authorities could keep the level 3 parts of the country walled off from the rest – literally – using concrete blocks and containers on some roads, perhaps at the Central Plateau, he said.
Keeping Covid out of the rest of the country could also help Auckland, by creating backup if the city’s health resources became overwhelmed.
There was some good news overnight with the Katikati case now testing negative and his family members also testing negative. He had been double vaccinated. The chances of spread sourced from him appear to be very low.
Other good news was the extraordinary performance of Middlemore Hospital that had been dealing with the brunt of the infection’s incursion has so far successfully treated 80 cases without reinfection.
But the Northland incursion is still of major concern with the second female involved still at large. The first person was alleged to be a prostitute. If so this will complicate contact tracing as it is very likely her close contacts will not want to subject themselves to official oversight.
Meanwhile National, who for the last 18 months have complained bitterly about how Jacinda Ardern has been fronting too many 1 pm press conferences is now complaining that she did not front in the past couple of days. I wish they would make their mind up.
She has spent the last few days on the East Coast in an intensive effort to get among locals urging them to be vaccinated.
This is what real leadership looks like.
Today will be an interesting day. My preference is that the Government holds the line in Auckland as well as the Waikato and Northland. Level four appeared to be working although there is an argument that because of the nature of the latest incursion, involving our poorest and most disaffected, level four would have made no difference.
And they should mandate compulsory vaccinations for all teachers unless there are medical reasons not to do so. Schools could become significant vectors of the spread of the disease
Meanwhile make sure you and your whanau are vaccinated.
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