- Date published:
8:39 am, August 29th, 2014 - 73 comments
Categories: david cunliffe, john key - Tags:
Two days with two polls and starkly different conclusions drawn.
The Herald yesterday did something I have never seen it do before. It urgently released the results of its latest poll. It was released at about midday and accompanied by multiple tweets. My normal impression is that poll results are saved for the morning and the print edition. It makes you wonder why they went early. Were they hoping to affect the outcome of the debate?
The headline was that Labour was going backward and National holding steady despite Dirty Politics.
Then this morning’s Stuff Ipsos poll result was released with rather different conclusions. Labour had made up ground, David Cunliffe’s preferred leadership support had surged, and National and Key had both taken hits from Dirty Politics.
To be frank the polls are all over the place. The only rule I have when analysing them is that National’s support is probably overstated by 5% and if you distribute this figure around the other parties then it is clear the election is on a knife edge.
I had hoped Labour’s support had increased given what has happened over the past couple of weeks. But the party has struggled for air time during the Dirty Politics dominated period so softness in its support is not unexpected. Clearly though its campaign needed a boost.
This is why last night’s debate was so vital and why David Cunliffe’s convincing performance will be causing National deep concern.
John Key tried to downplay the debate from the start. Claims that he would spend the afternoon shooting hoops with his son were an attempt to provide cover just in case he lost.
The text a vote run by TVone was a joke. What ordinary person would think about spending money in that way? I bet the hills of Remuera were ringing with the sounds of texts being sent.
Key was disappointedly light on policy that National intends to introduce in its third term if it wins. The only new policy I can recall him mentioning is the Kiwisaver bonus. National really are policy light at the present time.
Key claimed he supported Gay Marriage. Interestingly he opposed Civil Unions although he did support Louisa Wall’s Marriage Equality bill.
Some of Key’s claims were strange. He said that he knows the names of the 80 people who left the country last month. My two responses would be either how did he get this information or he must be lying.
He also claimed that the country’s books are now back in the black. My understanding is that this has not yet occurred and in any event requires some dubious accounting regarding the Christchurch rebuild.
And Key’s suggestion there would be tax cuts? In a show me the money moment Key could not say how much the surplus would be under National in the next couple of years. Cunliffe knew the figure and said that the only possible tax cut would be the equivalent of a block of cheese a week for an ordinary taxpayer.
Cunliffe was calm, confident and looked prime-ministerial. Key looked rattled. I suspect he must be wishing right now that the campaign was over already.
Cunliffe was also the only person to present policy and analysis coherently whereas John Key was negative and did not have a grasp of the detail.
Not that it should matter but the body language was fascinating. Cunliffe stood tall and dominant and Key looked marginalised. Also Cunliffe stared ahead and rarely looked at Key whereas Key often glanced nervously towards Cunliffe.
It is the first time I can ever recall John Key being beaten in a debate. This campaign has just become even more interesting.
Getting back to the Herald, O’Sullivan, Manhire and Armstrong gave the debate to Cunliffe. Young, daughter of a former National Minister, gave it to Key. Amongst other media Duncan Garner gave it to Cunliffe, Vance and Watkins called Key “uncharacteristically rattled” and Vernon Small described Cunliffe as being the clear winner.
So we have a good performance by Cunliffe, a pick up in his personal rating and an opponent clearly wounded by the Dirty Politics allegations. To be honest it is still a David verses Goliath battle. Cunliffe has only been in the leader’s job for less than 12 months and has had to weather a Jason Ede/Cameron Slater hatchet job on him all year. Despite all this David Cunliffe may be a sterling campaign away from being the next Prime Minister.
My John Key Haiku:
Honolulu, Hawaii, Thursday.
Some Cloud, 27 degrees.
I am not dancing
you are the rock’n’roller
whats that song again?
Cloud, Twenty Seven degrees
The fall’s two meanings
Getting words to fit
the 5 7 5 word form
I find is diffic___
In other news, name the 80 people John – given it’s 79 net, you may find it difficult.
And quite frankly it was a bit creepy that you might think you’re able – too many GCSB intercepts?
Dr. John Cooper Clarke I presume.
JK was really surprising in not spouting his standard lines of “I don’t know the details” or “I can’t remember the details”! What the heck is he on now?
I am quite relaxed
Now at the end of the day
Wait, we’re debating?
😀 thx Pete ! made my morning.
I an not rattled
Wait a minute, ah, move on
“John Key, debate me!”
I’ll thrash that Cunliffe Chap…
Well, I fucked that up
The polls don’t really say much at all other than business as usual. unlike the media companies we need to ignore the poll on poll result. And when you do that not a lot has changed in the past 3-4 months.
David did well considering he talked himself down all day.
I always expected him to out perform Key. It wasn’t really that hard to predict.
He has always and will always be a better orator than Key. That will not be enough to beat him though. We need to keep rolling out good policy and refrain from austerity measures to deal with National’s failures
Hopefully the debate will convince some of the undecided voters who might be watching, can’t imagine it stripping too much of National’s vote over to Labour since a lot of Key’s personal support isn’t entirely rational.
That is the frustrating problem National’s support has remained solid through all the scandal and poverty than Key has brought to New Zealand.
I can’t see how a predictable win by Cunliffe in the debate will result un the rats fleeing the National ship and heading for more progressive parties.
in dirty politics there was boasting about manipulating iPredict, so why not polls.
Authoritarians support authoritarian political parties no matter what. And, while they’re doing it, deny that they’re authoritarian.
Hooton did say that from his analysis National is always down by 5 points from the polls after an election. Mihingarangi says that they found the polls do not usually include people up to the age of 30 unless you own a home and a landline of which most students and those people up to the age of thirty usually don’t have landlines and pollsters do not ring mobiles. So every poll is slanted to an extent and not the real picture. It is therefore easy to assume why national is always polling high.
Roy Morgan does and I believe that more are starting to. I don’t like the polls because I consider the sampling to be too small making it too easy to get a biased result despite the random sampling.
The weird thing with sampling statistics, is even if they doubled the size of the sample, the confidence of such a sample size actually doesn’t increase very much. Quadrupling it wouldn’t make a big difference, either.
Also they’re working to a 95% confidence interval, which means assuming ideal statistical methods (which aren’t achievable in this context, but they pretend they are anyway), 1 time out of 20 the poll results will be inaccurate by more than the published margin of error anyway. When you factor in that the polls are definitely not meeting ideal statistical methods, it gets even murkier for how reliable they are.
Probably the way to get really accurate measures of voting preferences would be a shifting sample frame of 10,000 people, where each person would be polled 4 times in a row, once each month, with 2,500 people leaving and a new 2,500 people to replace them each month. That would give some stability in poll results while also allowing new blood in to try and get a fair sample. It’s logistically infeasible though – pollsters have enough trouble getting 1,000 people to answer their polls once.
All good points.
That’s not even mentioning the omission of nonresponsive/ undecided from the results. I figure the most recent Ipsos poll (referred to by MS), as:
42.1 % National
21.5 % Labour
17.7 % Undecided
9.7 % Green
9.0 % Minor
I wonder how many people give misleading answers in political polls just to mess with peoples heads as it is still a secret ballot.
Even then I know a lot of people who just dont have any landlines as the mobile is enough to serve their needs and see landlines as an extra expense
“most students and up to thirty year old group usually dont have home phone numbers and pollsters do not ring mobiles.”
Roy Morgan randomly dial cell phone numbers. I know because they polled me in January and I asked how they got my cell number. I believe some, but not all, of the other regular polls include cell phones in some way as well.
Also, the under 30s are the age group least likely to vote or be enrolled, so missing them out of the sampling for polls is not as bad as it may seem.
Yes it is. It just marginalises them further and makes them less likely to vote. It also creates the impression that say, most NZers want the Key govt. They don’t. It’s a minority.
but that is the same hooton who blames IMP for the kill the pm song and says dirty politics started when dotcom entered the country, cleverly ignoring the nats falling over themselves to get him PR
Using myself as a case study in relation to polls I am wondering if there is a much simpler reason for a National Party bias in them.
I have found in the past that if I have been working very hard all week or have been studying hard and I get a call from someone wanting to ask me questions I will normally find an excuse to say no so I can get back to relaxing or studying. I just don’t want to be interrupted.
However when I have had an easy week with little to do and people have rung up I have been far more willing to take the time to answer their questions.
So what do you think, is the National bias that seams to be present in these polls just from the same “I’m tired from work, or study and don’t want to deal with this bullshit right now” frame of mind like I get in when I’m tired?
As people who vote for the right tend to have much more money and free time are they far less likely to get in that same frame of mind as I do and be more willing to actually take part in a poll?
I am willing to bet that the bias you see is because more left leaning people just to refuse to participate in the polls than right leaning people and it is due to similar reason to mine.
The only pole that really matters to me I always take time to answer however is the one in which I actually cast my real vote for in an election.
This Horizon poll, which I got yesterday from The Standard yesterday, shows how devastating and widespread the damage has been from Dirty Politics. National will not survive.
Feral Follins, Flicks Flater, Fake Flogger, Fertif Facts. Fatulance Fog Falls. Ftench Funbearable.
It was a verbal brawl, not a debate.
Next time I want a genuine debate:
TV One should be ashamed for their lack of professionalism. This was NOT an intelligent discussion of the issues.
I totally agree.
David and John received different questions thereby making it an interview with Hosking rather than a debate of the issues.
Hoskings was awful from the small amount I saw. Key knocked himself clean out when he started on his ‘not enough capital’ available in NZ; Cunliffe response, that overseas 0% interest loans was wrong, it keeps NZ farmers from buying into farmland, pretty much exposed crazy Key for the economic cretin he is. We want NZ to Own NZ!
When you look at it the problem with affordable farmland and affordable housing both stem from the very same problem. Overseas buyers that have access to great loan deals that allow them to be able to bid higher for properties than those of us who live here in New Zealand are putting up the prices. Unless a system can be put in place to stem this advantage, this country will slowly be sold out from under everyone living here. New Zealand will become a surfdom.
At one point the people of New Zealand where Colonials but as it is going soon we will just be Coloni as the als part standing for air, land and sea will be lost to us!.
Yep. It was pathetic moderation. No sign of competence from moderator. We are in a pretty bad state when he is a top rated broadcaster.
This would be a good format to follow, as it was you just had two people talking over each other.
This polls suggests it was closer than peopl think
Herald Digipoll called us on Friday 24th around 3-4pm, and asked if we would participate in the poll, and I said yes.
Next question was, Is it o/k if my supervisor listens in?
I was slightly hesitant at this point but then said o/k.
She spent five minutes asking the location, job and finally a series of specific age bracket questions, like “is there anyone living at this address aged between” different age groups 18 an 28, until when they finally we reached our age group they were beginning to ask the questions that centred around lifestyle like what is your current occupation and as soon as I said retired she abruptly cancelled the interview, as if her supervisor signalled to stop the poll interview, saying thank you and hung up!!!.
It left me a bit stunned asking why the poll was halted, was it something I said?
Since this poll came out looking so wildly different from the previous poll a day before I think that this poll was different due to age group skewing the results.
We recalled that a study some time prior to this poll came out showing the age brackets and voting patterns that most likely to vote National had come out, showing our age usually vote more left than right, it seems that we were not used in the Herald poll, and see the results here now.
David clearly looked good and John Key looked stunned and like a possum in headlights. There was clear unease in him that I have never seen before, perhaps he is now under pressure to shed Collins from within his Government but Collins wont go? What does she have on him we wonder, is this his weight that will sink him now?
That happened to me too in 2011, although I don’t know who the company was but it had “International” at the end of the name. We went through the interview and I was negative towards John Key.. at the end of the interview, I was asked my age. I think I was 62 at the time and the interview stopped because my age bracket had been “filled”. I too was stunned because I was never asked my age at the polling booths. If they were sincere about being “filled”, they would have asked my age at the beginning of the interview. Stuff, Herald, Tv3, and TV1 seem to have a purpose, to get Key re-elected. Also, the day of the election after I voted, me and my mates went to Mcdonald’s for coffee. On the bench with very large letters in black it read,” National at 55% can govern alone” in the Dominion Post. This was 8 am. Sat there all day to remind those voting in opposition they won’t have a chance and to forget voting, at least that was the message it implied. Horizon was the only poll that got it right, with a few exceptions. National got 32 percent of the TOTAL registered voters. National voters will vote through hell and high water but those voting for the opposition seem to just roll over.
Polls should be outlawed 3 months before the campaign because it does affect the results.
+1 jackp agree polls should be banned from 3 months out
Those experiences should be made public on how polling is being done and maybe there should be a probe into how these companies do their polling.
It is difficult to think that the National Party is very happy with Key. He carries his disastrous friends – Collins, Slater, Farrar, Ede, Lusk, Hooton et al – wherever he goes.
They are a filthy siamese tangle. Key is their once proud ring leader. Each of the players has something on the other, which keeps them desperately, in Collins’ words “loyal” to the other.
In turn, the tangle entangles every member of National caucus. Cleanliness is a long way off. A very long way off. It simply cannot be achieved while ever the bullying, untruthful, unknowing tricky, ‘I was on holiday’ Key is around.
Key has turned the right wing Nats into the Shame Party. Shame is not something that worries Key.
It will increasingly worry Caucus though. New Zealand too. In the meantime, the polls are are in upheaval. That will be the case until Key the Abuser is sent packing with his dogs.
lol its not me I mean its my office of the prime minister hahahahaha
I am so angry that the national party from its leader Shonkey to all of the rest of their caucus actually take all of New Zealand as idiots and that what we hear and read is not what we have actually read and heard so much bullshit. On top of that they deny all of dirty politics by being ignorant and not reading it. So if we do not read anything written about us it never happened, but it seems to work with the national supporters who I find never have anything of substance to say except to either run people down without reason. I find them very cold people.
Who needs Third World politics when that is being practised by the party in government?
Angry with you, Tania … it’s Nixon meets Monty Python isn’t it ! And think even the good people of Epsom might have had enough this time too.
“Politics will eventually be replaced by imagery. The politician will be only too happy to abdicate in favor of his image, because the image will be much more powerful than he could ever be.”
I think we saw Key’s image failing last night
Does anyone know where I can find a video of the debate?
hidden and very, very hard to find on TVNZ site, but here it is for you:
Thank you … but “unable to show this protected content at this time”!
Works for me on Chrome and Firefox, although Firefox shows ads at the start – must check my Adblock settings 🙂 Are you in a different time-zone?
Not in NZ I suspect ! you can google for a free proxy avoider … many out there and easy to use and give you an NZ ip address. I added a link but it went to spam.
( I’m pink, therefore I’m Spam !)
Thank you – I tried again and it worked just fine. I thought Cunliffe was robbed in that poll … he was masterly.
happy u were able to see it .. true start of our history re-write !!!
@Pernille — It’s working for me ,, just checked.
Sounds like you are not in NZ ? You need to go to a programme like HMA ( HideMyAss.com) which will allow you to have an NZ IP address so you can watch it. Not free, but inexpensive and useful to have. ( Not NZ specific .. you can use a hidden IP from anywhere in the world.)
or some free options here for you http://en.softonic.com/s/proxy-avoider
If you want a better set of videos to watch than the train wreak of a debate found at TVNZ on demand go to the F.U.N channel on YouTube.
The “Decision 2014” videos posted on that channel are a good watch
Michael Hurst shows he is almost as good of an actor as the man he is portraying.
Key’s light on policies because they are hiding them till after the election (if they win)
Yes his “policy” is called the TPPA. After the next election he can sit back and let US corporations do more of his thinking for him….
MSM media polls are an unmitigated “joke” and from what I have seen are used to bash left leaning political parties. The latest batch are I believe being used to intentionally confuse and confound voters in order to muddy the obvious fact that National’s support is waning.
If National get back in they can in large part thank the disingenuous bottom feeders in the sleazy MSM….
Look, in a moment of madness, the truth came out. Puffed up little Shites… …she went on… …to explain how they were all in the pocket of Slater. The MSM journalist core avidly reads Slater’s latest triage and framing, and don’t dare go too far from the plot. Farrar and Hooten. Its pretty clean the hymn book they all preach from. Profits are always good, growth even at huge costs to future generations is all good, if a one line lie will do and wouldn’t enrage Slater one bit, its all good.
How else woudld the NZ economy have become so badly run? Prices gyrate up and down ever week, the rates, rents, housing materials are so much more expense than elsewhere, oh and please Australia has six cities all of Aucklands size and they can manage to keep prices lower. The proble is parliament has rigged the tax system to let kiwis buy homes thinking that would keep the middle classes happy, yet in fact all it did was made reckless speculation much easier than is normal globally. So instead of out financial class having to study the high metrics of derivatives they could sit on their hands and just rake up houses. Without a upper chamber to legislate for the long term we stand no chance of ever having a real say in NZ, it will always be too easy for the newspapers and tv elites to just sell out to the cheap righties sell it all, its all good profits brigade.
The curious exception to the Corkery quote is the “puffed up” bit. Nine times out of ten they may well be, but when a politician tries to silence them, the “puffed up” comes out to save the day. That’s when they remember about all the archaic concepts of free press and democracy and freedom of speech and reach down the throat of whoever’s it was that tried to silence them, and pull their political career up through their bumhole. They’re good like that. Then they go back to gossip columns and celebrity worship for the next ten years.
Never seen Key look as unsettled as he did last night. Good job by David Cunliffe, exceeded my expectations.
So its a David and Goliath contest? Good. David beat Goliath…..remember
Its also a work of fiction…
Mickey I can feel it.
The left are going to win.
Get Out The Vote.
When i read a quote from Key saying he was not rattled in the debate, I immediately assumed he was rattled
Key was rattled. None more so than when Cunliffe was talking late in the programme, and Key was talking over him … but Hoskings silenced Key by showing him the palm of his hand. Key was silenced. Critical moment for me.
He really is ‘smile and wave’.
squirm and deny
😀 @tracey .. perfect again !
Listening to RNZ assessment this morning
Guyon initially talking about how people only will hear what they want to hear when scoring the debate. He also used they line as the interview teaser.
They then all talked about who won (1 expert DC, the other rated it a draw). They talked about who looked confident etc, etc.
Then 3/4 way through the interview with his 2 “experts” mentions that a major paper scored it significantly in DCs favour (didn’t even mention the other major papers comments either).
I just wonder if Johnny had been on form, would Guyon have used the same teaser…….
Or would it have been: “A resounding win for the Prime Minster of Truth”
Is it raining out there on a parade anywhere?
ps yes I know Guyon did a bloody good job interviewing Key the other day. But ya have to keep them honest.
pps also why does the interviewer sound so sweet when talking to Collins, yet a bull dog when talking to DC
They tell me Hawaii is nice at this time of the year.
I’ve just watched the debate again counting the interjections:
DC interjected x3
JK interjected x1
MH interrupted DC x5 and JK x4
DC interjected x15
JK interjected x14
MH interrrupted DC x11 and JK x6
DC interjected x17
MH interrupted DC x13 and JK x7
DC interjected x10
JK interjected x20
MH interrupted DC x12 and JK x5
DC interjected x1
JK interjected x2
MH interrupted DC x3
David Cunliffe interjected 36 times
John Key interjected 43 times
Mike Hoskings interrupted David Cunliffe 44 times
Mike Hoskings interrupted John Key 22 times
Probably, they just realised the poll would be squeezed out by their debate coverage the next morning.
Suspecting conspiracy everywhere makes us sound deranged. Stop doing it, people.
Key is a snake. But last night he was a rattled snake!
Cunliffe is a lion. Last night he was the lion King!
Hopefully in the next debate, Cunliffe won’t turn from a lion King into a pussy cat and key from a rattled snake into a king cobra!
IMO only those that are into “politics ” would have seen much that resulted in last night. Format was crap & not enhanced by both leaders talking over each other. No policy only well trained PR responses, with one small potential highlight if you heard it key past labour future or something like that.
And from today’s contact with people not one mentioned the “debate”. Would be interesting if the viewing numbers are released and what if any drop off there was as the debate proceeded for the hour, sandwiched between commercials.
There may have been a winner of the 2 in some opinions, it definitely was the public in gaining anything, other than partisans seeing their side not doing badly.