Cunliffe 1 Key 0

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, August 29th, 2014 - 73 comments
Categories: david cunliffe, john key - Tags:

David Cunliffe vote positive

Two days with two polls and starkly different conclusions drawn.

The Herald yesterday did something I have never seen it do before.  It urgently released the results of its latest poll.  It was released at about midday and accompanied by multiple tweets.  My normal impression is that poll results are saved for the morning and the print edition.  It makes you wonder why they went early.  Were they hoping to affect the outcome of the debate?

The headline was that Labour was going backward and National holding steady despite Dirty Politics.

Then this morning’s Stuff Ipsos poll result was released with rather different conclusions.  Labour had made up ground, David Cunliffe’s preferred leadership support had surged, and National and Key had both taken hits from Dirty Politics.

To be frank the polls are all over the place.  The only rule I have when analysing them is that National’s support is probably overstated by 5% and if you distribute this figure around the other parties then it is clear the election is on a knife edge.

I had hoped Labour’s support had increased given what has happened over the past couple of weeks.  But the party has struggled for air time during the Dirty Politics dominated period so softness in its support is not unexpected.  Clearly though its campaign needed a boost.

This is why last night’s debate was so vital and why David Cunliffe’s convincing performance will be causing National deep concern.

John Key tried to downplay the debate from the start.  Claims that he would spend the afternoon shooting hoops with his son were an attempt to provide cover just in case he lost.

The text a vote run by TVone was a joke.  What ordinary person would think about spending money in that way?  I bet the hills of Remuera were ringing with the sounds of texts being sent.

Key was disappointedly light on policy that National intends to introduce in its third term if it wins.  The only new policy I can recall him mentioning is the Kiwisaver bonus.  National really are policy light at the present time.

Key claimed he supported Gay Marriage. Interestingly he opposed Civil Unions although he did support Louisa Wall’s Marriage Equality bill.

Some of Key’s claims were strange.  He said that he knows the names of the 80 people who left the country last month.  My two responses would be either how did he get this information or he must be lying.

He also claimed that the country’s books are now back in the black.  My understanding is that this has not yet occurred and in any event requires some dubious accounting regarding the Christchurch rebuild.

And Key’s suggestion there would be tax cuts?  In a show me the money moment Key could not say how much the surplus would be under National in the next couple of years.  Cunliffe knew the figure and said that the only possible tax cut would be the equivalent of a block of cheese a week for an ordinary taxpayer.

Cunliffe was calm, confident and looked prime-ministerial.  Key looked rattled.  I suspect he must be wishing right now that the campaign was over already.

Cunliffe was also the only person to present policy and analysis coherently whereas John Key was negative and did not have a grasp of the detail.

Not that it should matter but the body language was fascinating.  Cunliffe stood tall and dominant and Key looked marginalised.  Also Cunliffe stared ahead and rarely looked at Key whereas Key often glanced nervously towards Cunliffe.

It is the first time I can ever recall John Key being beaten in a debate.  This campaign has just become even more interesting.

Getting back to the Herald, O’Sullivan, Manhire and Armstrong gave the debate to Cunliffe.  Young, daughter of a former National Minister, gave it to Key.  Amongst other media Duncan Garner gave it to Cunliffe, Vance and Watkins called Key “uncharacteristically rattled” and Vernon Small described Cunliffe as being the clear winner.

So we have a good performance by Cunliffe, a pick up in his personal rating and an opponent clearly wounded by the Dirty Politics allegations.  To be honest it is still a David verses Goliath battle.  Cunliffe has only been in the leader’s job for less than 12 months and has had to weather a Jason Ede/Cameron Slater hatchet job on him all year.  Despite all this David Cunliffe may be a sterling campaign away from being the next Prime Minister.

73 comments on “Cunliffe 1 Key 0”

  1. Te Reo Putake 1

    My John Key Haiku:

    Honolulu, Hawaii, Thursday.
    Some Cloud, 27 degrees.
    Nice.

  2. Enough is Enough 2

    The polls don’t really say much at all other than business as usual. unlike the media companies we need to ignore the poll on poll result. And when you do that not a lot has changed in the past 3-4 months.

    David did well considering he talked himself down all day.

    I always expected him to out perform Key. It wasn’t really that hard to predict.

    He has always and will always be a better orator than Key. That will not be enough to beat him though. We need to keep rolling out good policy and refrain from austerity measures to deal with National’s failures

  3. Ant 3

    Hopefully the debate will convince some of the undecided voters who might be watching, can’t imagine it stripping too much of National’s vote over to Labour since a lot of Key’s personal support isn’t entirely rational.

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      That is the frustrating problem National’s support has remained solid through all the scandal and poverty than Key has brought to New Zealand.

      I can’t see how a predictable win by Cunliffe in the debate will result un the rats fleeing the National ship and heading for more progressive parties.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.2

      Authoritarians support authoritarian political parties no matter what. And, while they’re doing it, deny that they’re authoritarian.

  4. Tania 4

    Hooton did say that from his analysis National is always down by 5 points from the polls after an election. Mihingarangi says that they found the polls do not usually include people up to the age of 30 unless you own a home and a landline of which most students and those people up to the age of thirty usually don’t have landlines and pollsters do not ring mobiles. So every poll is slanted to an extent and not the real picture. It is therefore easy to assume why national is always polling high.

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      most students and up to thirty year old group usually dont have home phone numbers and pollsters do not ring mobiles.

      Roy Morgan does and I believe that more are starting to. I don’t like the polls because I consider the sampling to be too small making it too easy to get a biased result despite the random sampling.

      • Lanthanide 4.1.1

        The weird thing with sampling statistics, is even if they doubled the size of the sample, the confidence of such a sample size actually doesn’t increase very much. Quadrupling it wouldn’t make a big difference, either.

        Also they’re working to a 95% confidence interval, which means assuming ideal statistical methods (which aren’t achievable in this context, but they pretend they are anyway), 1 time out of 20 the poll results will be inaccurate by more than the published margin of error anyway. When you factor in that the polls are definitely not meeting ideal statistical methods, it gets even murkier for how reliable they are.

        Probably the way to get really accurate measures of voting preferences would be a shifting sample frame of 10,000 people, where each person would be polled 4 times in a row, once each month, with 2,500 people leaving and a new 2,500 people to replace them each month. That would give some stability in poll results while also allowing new blood in to try and get a fair sample. It’s logistically infeasible though – pollsters have enough trouble getting 1,000 people to answer their polls once.

        • Puddleglum 4.1.1.1

          Agreed Lanthanide.

          All good points.

          • Pasupial 4.1.1.1.1

            That’s not even mentioning the omission of nonresponsive/ undecided from the results. I figure the most recent Ipsos poll (referred to by MS), as:

            42.1 % National
            21.5 % Labour
            17.7 % Undecided
            9.7 % Green
            9.0 % Minor

        • Flipnz 4.1.1.2

          I wonder how many people give misleading answers in political polls just to mess with peoples heads as it is still a secret ballot.

      • Tania 4.1.2

        Even then I know a lot of people who just dont have any landlines as the mobile is enough to serve their needs and see landlines as an extra expense

    • Lanthanide 4.2

      “most students and up to thirty year old group usually dont have home phone numbers and pollsters do not ring mobiles.”

      Roy Morgan randomly dial cell phone numbers. I know because they polled me in January and I asked how they got my cell number. I believe some, but not all, of the other regular polls include cell phones in some way as well.

      Also, the under 30s are the age group least likely to vote or be enrolled, so missing them out of the sampling for polls is not as bad as it may seem.

      • weka 4.2.1

        Yes it is. It just marginalises them further and makes them less likely to vote. It also creates the impression that say, most NZers want the Key govt. They don’t. It’s a minority.

    • Tracey 4.3

      but that is the same hooton who blames IMP for the kill the pm song and says dirty politics started when dotcom entered the country, cleverly ignoring the nats falling over themselves to get him PR

    • NZJester 4.4

      Using myself as a case study in relation to polls I am wondering if there is a much simpler reason for a National Party bias in them.
      I have found in the past that if I have been working very hard all week or have been studying hard and I get a call from someone wanting to ask me questions I will normally find an excuse to say no so I can get back to relaxing or studying. I just don’t want to be interrupted.
      However when I have had an easy week with little to do and people have rung up I have been far more willing to take the time to answer their questions.
      So what do you think, is the National bias that seams to be present in these polls just from the same “I’m tired from work, or study and don’t want to deal with this bullshit right now” frame of mind like I get in when I’m tired?
      As people who vote for the right tend to have much more money and free time are they far less likely to get in that same frame of mind as I do and be more willing to actually take part in a poll?
      I am willing to bet that the bias you see is because more left leaning people just to refuse to participate in the polls than right leaning people and it is due to similar reason to mine.
      The only pole that really matters to me I always take time to answer however is the one in which I actually cast my real vote for in an election.

  5. AmaKiwi 5

    This Horizon poll, which I got yesterday from The Standard yesterday, shows how devastating and widespread the damage has been from Dirty Politics. National will not survive.

    http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/attachments/docs/horizon-research-political-conduct-survey-repo.pdf

    • aerobubble 6.1

      Feral Follins, Flicks Flater, Fake Flogger, Fertif Facts. Fatulance Fog Falls. Ftench Funbearable.

  6. AmaKiwi 7

    It was a verbal brawl, not a debate.

    Next time I want a genuine debate:

    1. Moderator poses a question.
    2. Speaker 1. has an allotted time to answer, without interruption.
    3. Speaker 2. gets the same.
    4. Speaker 1. gets an allotted time to rebut, without interruption.
    5. Speaker 2. gets the same.

    TV One should be ashamed for their lack of professionalism. This was NOT an intelligent discussion of the issues.

    • Enough is Enough 7.1

      I totally agree.

      David and John received different questions thereby making it an interview with Hosking rather than a debate of the issues.

      • aerobubble 7.1.1

        Hoskings was awful from the small amount I saw. Key knocked himself clean out when he started on his ‘not enough capital’ available in NZ; Cunliffe response, that overseas 0% interest loans was wrong, it keeps NZ farmers from buying into farmland, pretty much exposed crazy Key for the economic cretin he is. We want NZ to Own NZ!

        • NZJester 7.1.1.1

          When you look at it the problem with affordable farmland and affordable housing both stem from the very same problem. Overseas buyers that have access to great loan deals that allow them to be able to bid higher for properties than those of us who live here in New Zealand are putting up the prices. Unless a system can be put in place to stem this advantage, this country will slowly be sold out from under everyone living here. New Zealand will become a surfdom.
          At one point the people of New Zealand where Colonials but as it is going soon we will just be Coloni as the als part standing for air, land and sea will be lost to us!.

      • Flipnz 7.1.2

        Yep. It was pathetic moderation. No sign of competence from moderator. We are in a pretty bad state when he is a top rated broadcaster.

    • Undecided 7.2

      This would be a good format to follow, as it was you just had two people talking over each other.

      This polls suggests it was closer than peopl think

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10437549/Collins-denies-Peters-backdoor-approach-claims

  7. disturbed 8

    Herald Digipoll called us on Friday 24th around 3-4pm, and asked if we would participate in the poll, and I said yes.

    Next question was, Is it o/k if my supervisor listens in?

    I was slightly hesitant at this point but then said o/k.

    She spent five minutes asking the location, job and finally a series of specific age bracket questions, like “is there anyone living at this address aged between” different age groups 18 an 28, until when they finally we reached our age group they were beginning to ask the questions that centred around lifestyle like what is your current occupation and as soon as I said retired she abruptly cancelled the interview, as if her supervisor signalled to stop the poll interview, saying thank you and hung up!!!.

    It left me a bit stunned asking why the poll was halted, was it something I said?
    Since this poll came out looking so wildly different from the previous poll a day before I think that this poll was different due to age group skewing the results.

    We recalled that a study some time prior to this poll came out showing the age brackets and voting patterns that most likely to vote National had come out, showing our age usually vote more left than right, it seems that we were not used in the Herald poll, and see the results here now.

    David clearly looked good and John Key looked stunned and like a possum in headlights. There was clear unease in him that I have never seen before, perhaps he is now under pressure to shed Collins from within his Government but Collins wont go? What does she have on him we wonder, is this his weight that will sink him now?

    • jackp 8.1

      That happened to me too in 2011, although I don’t know who the company was but it had “International” at the end of the name. We went through the interview and I was negative towards John Key.. at the end of the interview, I was asked my age. I think I was 62 at the time and the interview stopped because my age bracket had been “filled”. I too was stunned because I was never asked my age at the polling booths. If they were sincere about being “filled”, they would have asked my age at the beginning of the interview. Stuff, Herald, Tv3, and TV1 seem to have a purpose, to get Key re-elected. Also, the day of the election after I voted, me and my mates went to Mcdonald’s for coffee. On the bench with very large letters in black it read,” National at 55% can govern alone” in the Dominion Post. This was 8 am. Sat there all day to remind those voting in opposition they won’t have a chance and to forget voting, at least that was the message it implied. Horizon was the only poll that got it right, with a few exceptions. National got 32 percent of the TOTAL registered voters. National voters will vote through hell and high water but those voting for the opposition seem to just roll over.

      Polls should be outlawed 3 months before the campaign because it does affect the results.

      • Bearded Git 8.1.1

        +1 jackp agree polls should be banned from 3 months out

      • Tania 8.1.2

        Those experiences should be made public on how polling is being done and maybe there should be a probe into how these companies do their polling.

  8. Observer (Tokoroa) 9

    Micky Savage

    It is difficult to think that the National Party is very happy with Key. He carries his disastrous friends – Collins, Slater, Farrar, Ede, Lusk, Hooton et al – wherever he goes.

    They are a filthy siamese tangle. Key is their once proud ring leader. Each of the players has something on the other, which keeps them desperately, in Collins’ words “loyal” to the other.

    In turn, the tangle entangles every member of National caucus. Cleanliness is a long way off. A very long way off. It simply cannot be achieved while ever the bullying, untruthful, unknowing tricky, ‘I was on holiday’ Key is around.

    Key has turned the right wing Nats into the Shame Party. Shame is not something that worries Key.

    It will increasingly worry Caucus though. New Zealand too. In the meantime, the polls are are in upheaval. That will be the case until Key the Abuser is sent packing with his dogs.

    • Tania 9.1

      lol its not me I mean its my office of the prime minister hahahahaha

      • Tania 9.1.1

        I am so angry that the national party from its leader Shonkey to all of the rest of their caucus actually take all of New Zealand as idiots and that what we hear and read is not what we have actually read and heard so much bullshit. On top of that they deny all of dirty politics by being ignorant and not reading it. So if we do not read anything written about us it never happened, but it seems to work with the national supporters who I find never have anything of substance to say except to either run people down without reason. I find them very cold people.

        • Kiwiri 9.1.1.1

          Who needs Third World politics when that is being practised by the party in government?

        • yeshe 9.1.1.2

          Angry with you, Tania … it’s Nixon meets Monty Python isn’t it ! And think even the good people of Epsom might have had enough this time too.

  9. Dialey 10

    “Politics will eventually be replaced by imagery. The politician will be only too happy to abdicate in favor of his image, because the image will be much more powerful than he could ever be.”
    Marshall McLuhan
    I think we saw Key’s image failing last night

  10. Pernille 11

    Does anyone know where I can find a video of the debate?

    • yeshe 11.1

      hidden and very, very hard to find on TVNZ site, but here it is for you:

      http://tvnz.co.nz/one-news/s2014-ep1-video-6066764

      • Pernille 11.1.1

        Thank you … but “unable to show this protected content at this time”!

        • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1.1.1

          Works for me on Chrome and Firefox, although Firefox shows ads at the start – must check my Adblock settings 🙂 Are you in a different time-zone?

          • yeshe 11.1.1.1.1

            Not in NZ I suspect ! you can google for a free proxy avoider … many out there and easy to use and give you an NZ ip address. I added a link but it went to spam.

            ( I’m pink, therefore I’m Spam !)

          • Pernille 11.1.1.1.2

            Thank you – I tried again and it worked just fine. I thought Cunliffe was robbed in that poll … he was masterly.

        • yeshe 11.1.1.2

          @Pernille — It’s working for me ,, just checked.

          Sounds like you are not in NZ ? You need to go to a programme like HMA ( HideMyAss.com) which will allow you to have an NZ IP address so you can watch it. Not free, but inexpensive and useful to have. ( Not NZ specific .. you can use a hidden IP from anywhere in the world.)

          or some free options here for you http://en.softonic.com/s/proxy-avoider

    • NZJester 11.2

      If you want a better set of videos to watch than the train wreak of a debate found at TVNZ on demand go to the F.U.N channel on YouTube.
      https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPHvr3xIN4UmU7ZC0e_HkZg
      The “Decision 2014” videos posted on that channel are a good watch
      Michael Hurst shows he is almost as good of an actor as the man he is portraying.

  11. fambo 12

    Key’s light on policies because they are hiding them till after the election (if they win)

    • Sable 12.1

      Yes his “policy” is called the TPPA. After the next election he can sit back and let US corporations do more of his thinking for him….

  12. Sable 13

    MSM media polls are an unmitigated “joke” and from what I have seen are used to bash left leaning political parties. The latest batch are I believe being used to intentionally confuse and confound voters in order to muddy the obvious fact that National’s support is waning.

    If National get back in they can in large part thank the disingenuous bottom feeders in the sleazy MSM….

    • aerobubble 13.1

      Look, in a moment of madness, the truth came out. Puffed up little Shites… …she went on… …to explain how they were all in the pocket of Slater. The MSM journalist core avidly reads Slater’s latest triage and framing, and don’t dare go too far from the plot. Farrar and Hooten. Its pretty clean the hymn book they all preach from. Profits are always good, growth even at huge costs to future generations is all good, if a one line lie will do and wouldn’t enrage Slater one bit, its all good.
      How else woudld the NZ economy have become so badly run? Prices gyrate up and down ever week, the rates, rents, housing materials are so much more expense than elsewhere, oh and please Australia has six cities all of Aucklands size and they can manage to keep prices lower. The proble is parliament has rigged the tax system to let kiwis buy homes thinking that would keep the middle classes happy, yet in fact all it did was made reckless speculation much easier than is normal globally. So instead of out financial class having to study the high metrics of derivatives they could sit on their hands and just rake up houses. Without a upper chamber to legislate for the long term we stand no chance of ever having a real say in NZ, it will always be too easy for the newspapers and tv elites to just sell out to the cheap righties sell it all, its all good profits brigade.

      • crocodill 13.1.1

        The curious exception to the Corkery quote is the “puffed up” bit. Nine times out of ten they may well be, but when a politician tries to silence them, the “puffed up” comes out to save the day. That’s when they remember about all the archaic concepts of free press and democracy and freedom of speech and reach down the throat of whoever’s it was that tried to silence them, and pull their political career up through their bumhole. They’re good like that. Then they go back to gossip columns and celebrity worship for the next ten years.

  13. rain33 14

    Never seen Key look as unsettled as he did last night. Good job by David Cunliffe, exceeded my expectations.

  14. Dont worry. Be happy 15

    So its a David and Goliath contest? Good. David beat Goliath…..remember

  15. Ad 16

    Mickey I can feel it.

    The left are going to win.

    Get Out The Vote.

  16. Tracey 17

    When i read a quote from Key saying he was not rattled in the debate, I immediately assumed he was rattled

    • yeshe 17.1

      Key was rattled. None more so than when Cunliffe was talking late in the programme, and Key was talking over him … but Hoskings silenced Key by showing him the palm of his hand. Key was silenced. Critical moment for me.

      He really is ‘smile and wave’.

  17. Hen Likes Joy 18

    Listening to RNZ assessment this morning

    Guyon initially talking about how people only will hear what they want to hear when scoring the debate. He also used they line as the interview teaser.

    They then all talked about who won (1 expert DC, the other rated it a draw). They talked about who looked confident etc, etc.

    Then 3/4 way through the interview with his 2 “experts” mentions that a major paper scored it significantly in DCs favour (didn’t even mention the other major papers comments either).

    I just wonder if Johnny had been on form, would Guyon have used the same teaser…….

    Or would it have been: “A resounding win for the Prime Minster of Truth”

    Is it raining out there on a parade anywhere?

    ps yes I know Guyon did a bloody good job interviewing Key the other day. But ya have to keep them honest.

    pps also why does the interviewer sound so sweet when talking to Collins, yet a bull dog when talking to DC

  18. Valleyman 19

    They tell me Hawaii is nice at this time of the year.

  19. Dialey 20

    I’ve just watched the debate again counting the interjections:
    Part 1
    DC interjected x3
    JK interjected x1
    MH interrupted DC x5 and JK x4

    Part 2
    DC interjected x15
    JK interjected x14
    MH interrrupted DC x11 and JK x6

    Part 3
    DC interjected x17
    JK x6
    MH interrupted DC x13 and JK x7

    Part 4
    DC interjected x10
    JK interjected x20
    MH interrupted DC x12 and JK x5

    Part 5
    DC interjected x1
    JK interjected x2
    MH interrupted DC x3

    Totals
    David Cunliffe interjected 36 times
    John Key interjected 43 times
    Mike Hoskings interrupted David Cunliffe 44 times
    Mike Hoskings interrupted John Key 22 times

  20. lurgee 21

    My normal impression is that poll results are saved for the morning and the print edition. It makes you wonder why they went early. Were they hoping to affect the outcome of the debate?

    Probably, they just realised the poll would be squeezed out by their debate coverage the next morning.

    Suspecting conspiracy everywhere makes us sound deranged. Stop doing it, people.

  21. Clemgeopin 22

    Key is a snake. But last night he was a rattled snake!
    Cunliffe is a lion. Last night he was the lion King!

    Key=40%
    Cunliffe=60%
    Hoshking=6/10

    Hopefully in the next debate, Cunliffe won’t turn from a lion King into a pussy cat and key from a rattled snake into a king cobra!

  22. Herodotus 23

    IMO only those that are into “politics ” would have seen much that resulted in last night. Format was crap & not enhanced by both leaders talking over each other. No policy only well trained PR responses, with one small potential highlight if you heard it key past labour future or something like that.
    And from today’s contact with people not one mentioned the “debate”. Would be interesting if the viewing numbers are released and what if any drop off there was as the debate proceeded for the hour, sandwiched between commercials.
    There may have been a winner of the 2 in some opinions, it definitely was the public in gaining anything, other than partisans seeing their side not doing badly.

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  • An increasingly shoddy coverup
    The Operation Burnham inquiry continued to question senior NZDF staff today, and their shoddy coverup over their knowledge of civilian casualties continue to fall apart. If you recall, first, we were asked to believe that it was all a series of "mistakes and errors": a senior officer with multiple degrees ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • If we are to avoid making the earth uninhabitable, we need to rapidly decarbonise our civilisation, and cut emissions to zero as quickly as possible. This seems like an impossible task, but its not. Pushing hard on a few technologies and trends will let us halve emissions in a decade:Greenhouse ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • A further attack on transparency
    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    3 days ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    4 days ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    4 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    5 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    5 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    6 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    6 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    1 week ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

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