Daily review 07/06/2022

24 comments on “Daily review 07/06/2022 ”

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1. Chris T 1

   7 June 2022 at 6:26 pm

   Latest Roy Morgan ain't looking too great for Labour. Not sure how much attention should be paid to it. Polls can have one off oddities.

   "Potential National/Act NZ coalition (50%) strengthens its clear lead over Labour/Greens (43%) in May"…..

   http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8974-nz-national-voting-intention-may-2022-202206070538
   • Ad 1.1

     7 June 2022 at 6:57 pm

     Nothing to see here.

     Policing is fine and the gunshots are a fact of life. Gangs are fine – there's a legislative package any day. Pay is fine – no one needs to strike. Ministers are fine – the nedia only need two in total. China is fine – there's no alarm no need to travel. Inflation is fine especially petrol and diesel. Poverty is fine with all the free food. Children are fine they never notice Poverty anyway. House waiting lists are fine because it's … their fault … over there…. from then. The environment is fine because trading carbon will save us. Suicide is fine we spent all that money. Treasury is fine and all that public debt means nothing at all keep printing. Eldercare is fine we didn't need all those resthomes anyway. Poverty is fine we spent all the money on you. Water is fine trust the new untried governing order. Exports are fine China will always adore us. Ardern is fine its the empathy that matters. Labour is fine the Greens will do it. The Greens are fine LBour will shield them from life. Labour and the Greens are fine the Maori Party will never go with National.

     Relax. Everything is done for you.
     • Anne 1.1.1

       7 June 2022 at 8:36 pm

       Labour is piss poor at countering the lies, innuendo, twists and turns and dishonesty of the two Opposition parties and their media lackeys. I've been saying it for twenty years but still they tread softly, softly… assuming the voters have enough between the ears to comprehend they are being played. Many of them have not.

       Until Labour starts to call a spade a spade and essentially reprimands them in no uncertain terms, then Nat/ACT will continue to play dirty because it works for them every time.
   • Belladonna 1.2

     7 June 2022 at 7:49 pm

     Agree that polls can be outliers – but it looks as though this one is continuing the trend against Labour (Greens pretty much remaining steady)

     See the summary of recent polls here (the Wikipedia editor is doing a sterling job)

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

     As far as I can see, this is the first one which has the difference between the 2 main parties outside the margin of error – which will be another concern. Previous ones have really been too close to call – with a difference of only a few percent, and a margin of error of 3%.

     I can't tell if this would still have TPM in a kingmaker role, or not….
     • swordfish 1.2.1

       7 June 2022 at 9:23 pm

       No … it would mean a relatively easy Nat / ACT victory.
       • Belladonna 1.2.1.1

         7 June 2022 at 9:36 pm

         Thanks Swordfish.
         It's the end of a long and complex day, both personally and professionally, and my 'thinker is worn out' (family saying).
         I don't have the ability to do translation of percentages into seats and total the results, reliably, ATM.
         • Incognito 1.2.1.1.1

           7 June 2022 at 9:38 pm

           It’s all in the Wiki page!
           • Belladonna 1.2.1.1.1.1

             8 June 2022 at 9:05 am

             Thanks Incognito – I didn't scroll down far enough. Really not batting on 100% yesterday evening 😉
         • swordfish 1.2.1.1.2

           7 June 2022 at 10:03 pm

           
   • MickeyBoyle 1.3

     7 June 2022 at 10:01 pm

     This trend will continue whilst people are struggling and this government keeps pushing divisive policy such as three waters and co-governance.

     I keep saying it, but rightly or wrongly these issues are election losers. Racism is still alive and well in this country, the backlash will only continue to grow.

     Anyone who thinks this trajectory of polling won't continue or that economic conditions are going to improve this side of Christmas is deluded!

     Inflation will be near double digits by December and Labours polling will start with a 2.
2. Alan 2

   7 June 2022 at 6:40 pm

   The "heading in the right/wrong direction" figures are the real worry for the current government
   • weka 2.1

     7 June 2022 at 8:55 pm

     come back in a year with that.
     • MickeyBoyle 2.1.1

       7 June 2022 at 10:02 pm

       What gives you such confidence that this will turn around?
       • weka 2.1.1.1

         7 June 2022 at 10:53 pm

         It's not that, it's that we're a year out from an election and polling at this point is fairly meaningless.

         Show me the trends over election cycles and I'll take it more seriously.

         I definitely don't think the left should be complacent, ever.
         • MickeyBoyle 2.1.1.1.1

           7 June 2022 at 11:11 pm

           Fair enough.
3. ianmac 3

   7 June 2022 at 9:10 pm

   Does this mean that concert between the Opposition and Media is powerful and it seems to work.

   (Wonder how much the general population knows about Trevor or is it the incessant moaning of the Opposition?)
   • Peter 3.1

     7 June 2022 at 9:34 pm

     The general population is being led to believe that Mallard is the most evil man ever in New Zealand. And of course that he is incapable of being Speaker in Parliament.

     Maybe after the next election we'll get a chance to see how brilliant Gerry is in the job.
     • MickeyBoyle 3.1.1

       7 June 2022 at 9:47 pm

       https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/06/07/poll-is-trevor-mallard-doing-a-good-job-as-speaker/

       Trevor should never have been made speaker. The guy is a liability and always has been.
       • RedLogix 3.1.1.1

         7 June 2022 at 10:32 pm

         I have met Mallard a number of times – I think a great deal of him. His main fault is there is altogether too much unreconstructed masculine energy about him – a fatal flaw in the modern context.
         • Nic the NZer 3.1.1.1.1

           7 June 2022 at 11:28 pm

           Trevor took the wrong get off my lawn position, using the sprinklers on a protest. Meanwhile at the European Cup final teargas was used on the fans paying to attend.
   • Chris T 3.2

     8 June 2022 at 6:51 am

     TBF I'm fairly easy going about it, but some question times Trev' comes across as so bliased he might as well have rocked up wearing a red "I love Labour" t-shirt.

     I know it is pretty impossible to do, but I have always thought the Speakers job should be just a role in Parliamentary Services given to a qualified inpendent, non Party associated person.

     Maybe a Political expert from Vic' or something.
   • Anne 3.3

     8 June 2022 at 9:54 am

     My thoughts too ianmac. How many of them have ever watched parliament and therefore observed him at close quarters? Close to zero would be my estimate.

     It is, in part, another example of… repeating something often enough and people will believe it.
     • KJT 3.3.1

       8 June 2022 at 10:15 am

       Lying! "Repeatedly and in unison" like a bunch of performing seals, seems to be an often deliberately used right wing tactic.

       Unfortunately if something is heard often enough it becomes internalised even for those that should know better.

       "National is good at looking after the economy" is the obvious one.

       Continually bagging someone as "incompetent" or "out of touch" when there is no evidence to support it is another. Once someone starts being criticised as the "fall guy" people tend to gang up and their perceptions of that person go downhill, no matter what the reality. National have turned that into an art form. With detrimental effects on the real performance of MP' s.
       • Ed1 3.3.1.1

         8 June 2022 at 2:32 pm

         Agreed. Mallard has been very firm and uncompromising in insisting that Parliaments rules be followed by both Government and Opposition MPs. There was a clip played showing Mallard getting stroppy with Lockwood Smith as Speaker; but I recall that Smith was not highly regarded for much of his time as Speaker – indeed most who stay in the job for longer than a very short period are at some stage seen as an easy target to cover Opposition incompetence at finding anything else to attack the government with.

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