Just got a fundraising email from Labour telling me that regardless of the poll tonight the election will be close. Now I don’t know whether to be relieved or worried?
Hopefully if they know the result today, which they normally do with polls when they gauge party leaders reaction for the 30 second soundbite on the news, it means labour are still miles ahead and they’re just filling the coffers and getting the anti complacency vote out.
No change between the left and right blocs. National and Greens both down 1 point. Labour and Act unchanged. NZ First still competing for attention with TOP and the lunatic fringe. Nothing Judith is doing is convincing National voters who crossed to Labour to go back. The real issue now is whether the Greens can keep their head above water. I tend to think they will but it is too close for comfort.
So the leaders debates had no effect. JC's dog-whistling had no effect. Maori Party failed to even get 1%. Neocons & nutters have parity out on the fringe. NZF still no traction.
I just listened to Heather Duplicity-Allan interview her father, Barry Sober, about the CB poll. They both tried very hard to paint this as a failure for Labour and the Greens. This despite the poll showing Labour either governing alone in the case of the GP not making it, and governing with the GP should they make it. There are no other possibilities.
Barry Sober then referenced JA's drop in preferred PM from 54% to 50% by claiming as relevant a Herald digipoll in 2014 showing Jon Key at 60%!
The reckons of these two and their bank accounts need to be looked at by the Electoral Commission.
As was pointed out last time they tried that comparison, the Herald poll factored out don't knows (so the total was 100%). The CB poll doesn't (to see this, just add up the numbers). It's comparing basketball points with netball.
Yeah, there’s obviously a lot of pillow-talk collusion between the two about how they are going to attack. Their off and on air relationship is a real threat to democracy in my opinion.
I'm actually quite impressed with the NZ public. Sure, I'd like even more support for both Labour and the Greens, but the real message from the polls is that there are two different worlds: Planet Hype and Planet Voter.
On Planet (Media) Hype everyone is reacting every day to all the latest headlines: who won the debate? who did a gaffe? which announcement is a "game changer"? what does the poll say? are voters changing their minds every 5 minutes?
On Planet Voter they just decide who they want to vote for, and the vast majority stick with their choice, and many have already put it in the ballot box.
No change in Colmar Brunton poll, no invented surge to entertain bored commentators who should be doing sport, not elections. Good.
yes, paid experts should be given the boot . get out and pick fruit you bloody parasites! hoskings and his partner and duplicious alien and her dad need to" get a haircut and a real job" (george thorogood)
I agree with that 200% Take tonights TVNZ news this female came on stating that Labour will need the greens to form a government and Arderns shine was going off with a massive drop in support (That is my interpretation of what she said).
A disaster I thought Collins and National have had a massive surge in support along with Rimmer.
No such thing, Ardern has dropped by 4%( don’t want any drop) to 50% and Labour are still on 47% no change. I cannot see any difference to their rating since the last poll and why she had to state (disaster) that Labout needed the Greens to form a Government, something we already knew.
Collins is still on 27% and National dropped by 1%.
I am surprised she didn't state that National was now on a roll as they have only dropped by 1% vs Arderns drop of 4% and Collins was still on 27% with no further drop.
Still looking good for the left. Just need a few more lefties to choose Green instead of Labour and we might get a centre left govt to be proud of and that will act on climate change.
Well i really hope they do not make the threshhold this time! Their campaign strategy of take votes off labour whilst promoting themselves as "partner" is dishonest. They need to replace marama with some person of integrety and charisma. They present as deluded, self important, entitled, and self serving
watching tinydancer sheepdogging his herd will be one of the funnier things over the next three yrs. there will be bets on which one leaves parliament , either under a cloud, or in handcuffs. they have form on both.
Anyone else thinking of all those pundits (mostly clapped out National and ACT apparatchiki) who were sure Labour’s vote was soft and would head back to National once the campaign started? No, me neither.
Last time 2,591,896 party votes were cast, so the threshold was 129,595 votes. This CB poll has them at 2%, so they would need another 3% = 77,757 votes. With a higher turnout even if just from population growth, 80,000 to 100,000 is an excellent estimate.
Rimmer has got serious. When he was at 0.64%, anything went. Now, having vacuumed the rotting dregs of the post Key National Party he suddenly has to look grown up and less student.
To avoid them losing jobs would be at least one answer. I don't believe that it would do that any more than anyone else does, but it's typical of their claptrap.
Mutch-=McKay really doesn't know what she is talking about , if Labour got 47% to Nat?Act 40 and the Greens miss out ( which I doubt will happen ) surely the final washup gives Labour well over 50% of seats available because they are 7% ahead which is probably 10 seats. Am I wrong?
But she may be referring to the situation if the Greens get back in. Their seat count gives Labour 60 seats if the Greens get back in, one short of a majority. Then they would need to have some kind of arrangement with the Greens.
Yes logically a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement. But even without either or those, Labour could on those numbers govern alone as a minority government with the Greens on the cross benches, as long as the Greens don't join Nat and ACT and vote no confidence, which of course they wouldn't do.
…Sir Kim says the focus needs to be on ensuring fewer Māori end up in prison in the first place. He says changes to the Bail Act brought in under National in 2013 have driven up the number of Māori on remand.
"The problem was that the remand prisons became a major recruiting ground for the gangs and we had young Māori ending up in there, for the first time often, getting bashed up by the gangs and threatened if they didn't join."
Justice Minister Andrew Little criticised this law in 2018, but no action was taken…
Seems that the Advance party has been rewarded for their irresponsible anti-lockdown rally with thousands of people . I am angry that all minor parties were not invited onto tonight's debate. SO UNFAIR !
Nonsense. The other parties are all polling below 1% . That is why they weren't invited. There has to be a threshold otherwise every Tom, Dick, Harry and a smattering of raving lunatics would have to be invited.
Drove into Darwin NT with the kids this morning to vote I was hoping to give NZ Labour 2 ✔️. But I haven’t seen NZL’s Defence or Veterans Policy for this election, so I guess NZL don’t give a shit about us these days & looks like the NZDF & Veterans budget will be cut over the next 3yrs then?
Also i didn’t vote Green either
1, I’m over ID politics & sometimes I my 4x Great Uncle Nye Bevan was still around have the Greens an education on the less privilege classes,
2, Did bugger all on NZ Veterans welfare as they some pretty good policies for Veterans btw,
3, Complaining about the new C130J’s and saying the AirNZ’s 787’s would’ve been cheaper WTF Golriz. Try landing one of those wee beasties into Dili Airport. The L101 Tristar Jet in 99 could just barely make into Dili, same same for the RNZAF B757 in 06 and the RAAF C17 landed there in 06. But had to reverse back the runway in order to take off again or else if it turned on the runway they would’ve rip the runway up in the process. No doubt she would complain about the Navies new purpose built Landing Ship and the Southern Ocean Patrol Ship as well as both of these won’t cheap either the NZG the NZDF won’t get much change out of NZD 1.5B.
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Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra With Jim Chalmers’s third budget on May 14, Australians will be looking for some more cost-of-living relief – beyond the tax cuts – although they have been warned extra measures will be modest. As ...
Analysis: Melissa Lee has lost the media portfolio and her spot in Cabinet after multiple failed attempts to find solutions for a media industry in crisis. On Wednesday, the Prime Minister announced Lee would be losing her spot in Cabinet along with her media and communications ministerial portfolio. The job ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Wilmot, Senior Lecturer, Film, Deakin University Among the many Australian who served during the second world war, there is a small group of people whose stories remain largely untold. These are the Muslim men and women who, while small in number, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelly Saunders, PhD Candidate, University of Canberra There has been much analysis and praise of Justice Michael Lee’s recent judgement in Bruce Lehrmann’s defamation case against Channel Ten. Many people were openly relieved to read Lee’s “forensic” and “nuanced” application of law ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathy Gibbs, Program Director for the Bachelor of Education, Griffith University zEdward_Indy/Shutterstock Around one in 20 people has attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It’s one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in childhood and often continues into adulthood. ADHD is diagnosed ...
The Fairer Future coalition of anti-poverty groups say Whaikaha must be properly funded going forward, and that to argue that poor financial management of the new Ministry is a red herring by the Prime Minister. ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is today congratulating Hon. Paul Goldsmith on his appointment as Minister for Media and Communications and urges him to rule out state intervention in the private media sector. ...
Asia Pacific Report The West Papuan resistance OPM leader has condemned Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and US President Joe Biden, accusing their countries of “six decades of treachery” over Papuan independence. The open letter was released today by OPM chairman Jeffrey P Bomanak on the eve of ANZAC Day ...
Welcome to The Spinoff Books Confessional, in which we get to know the reading habits and quirks of New Zealanders at large. This week: writer and one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people of 2024, Lauren Groff.The book I wish I’d writtenIf I wish I’d written a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Fechner, Research Fellow, Social Marketing, Griffith University mavo/Shutterstock Imagine having dinner at a restaurant. The menu offers plant-based meat alternatives made mostly from vegetables, mushrooms, legumes and wheat that mimic meat in taste, texture and smell. Despite being given that ...
“Three Strikes is a dead-end policy proposed by a dead-end government. The Three Strikes law ignores the causes of crime, instead just brutalising people already crushed by the cost of living.” ...
By Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist An Australian-born judge in Kiribati could well face deportation later this week after a tribunal ruling that he should be removed from his post. The tribunal’s report has just been tabled in the Kiribati Parliament and is due to be debated by MPs ...
With its clear mandate for police use, political nuances, and nuanced public trust, Denmark's insights provide valuable considerations for Australia and New Zealand. ...
Books editor Claire Mabey reviews poet Louise Wallace’s debut novel. A famous poet once said to me that he’s always suspicious when a poet publishes a novel. I never really understood why but maybe it’s something to do with cheating on your first form. Louise Wallace is a poet. She’s ...
For a few months at the turn of the millennium, TrueBliss burned bright as the biggest pop stars in the country. Alex Casey chats to two superfans who still hold the flame. During a humble backyard wedding in Nelson, 1999, one of the cordially invited guests had to excuse themselves ...
How will the recent wave of job cuts impact ethnic diversity in the media? In November last year, I was working a very busy day in the newsroom of a large online news site, interviewing whānau about their concerns over the imminent closure of one of the few puna reo ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ruth Knight, Researcher, Queensland University of Technology Have you ever felt sick at work? Perhaps you had food poisoning or the flu. Your belly hurt, or you felt tired, making it hard to concentrate and be productive. How likely would you be ...
Despite heavy criticism and an ongoing select committee process, the Police Minister says the Government will forge ahead with a ban on gang patches. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Whiting, Lecturer – Creative Industries, University of South Australia Shutterstock Everyone has a favourite band, or a favourite composer, or a favourite song. There is some music which speaks to you, deeply; and other music which might be the current ...
A new survey says ‘outlook not great’ for those charged with building infrastructure, while RMA changes delight farmers and depress environmentalists, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. First RMA changes announced ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olli Hellmann, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Waikato Getty Images When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also ...
A leaked document shows the Canterbury/Waitaha arm of health agency Te Whatu Ora is scurrying to save $13.3 million by July. The “financial sustainability target”, which was “allocated” to Waitaha, is consistent with what’s happening in other districts, says Sarah Dalton, executive director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists. ...
A look at the state of the previous government’s affordable housing scheme, and what could come next.Remind me: What’s KiwiBuild again?First announced in 2012, KiwiBuild was a flagship policy of the Labour Party heading into both its 2014 and 2017 election campaigns. With Jacinda Ardern as prime minister, ...
Labour in opposition will be shocked to learn which party had six years in power but squandered any chance to make real change. Grant Robertson’s valedictory speech was a predictably entertaining trip down memory lane. The acid-tongued incoming Otago University chancellor administered a sick burn to the coalition government. He ...
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is seen some as its ‘silicon shield’ against invasion – but how will overseas expansion affect that protection? The post The state of Taiwan’s silicon shield appeared first on Newsroom. ...
There’s relief for building owners bending under the weight of earthquake strengthening rules – and costs – that came into force seven years ago. Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk has announced a scheduled 2027 review of the earthquake-prone building regulations will now start this year. Owners will also get ...
Opinion: It has been announced that nine percent of roles at Oranga Tamariki will be disestablished, presumably to help fund the tax cuts promised by the coalition Government. I am reminded of the graphics used to illustrate pandemic events, where five thousand people are standing in a field and then ...
After more than two sleepless days, running through savage terrain, Greig Hamilton didn’t know if he was going to finish one of the most gruelling psychological assaults in sport. He was metres away from the finish line, a yellow gate made famous in a Netflix documentary; a race he’d dreamed ...
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The following interview with former Green Party MP Sue Kedgley came about because she features in the new memoir Hine Toa by activist Ngāhuia te Awekōtuku; the two knew each other at the University of Auckland in the early 70s, when they were both took on leadership roles in the ...
COMMENTARY:By Murray Horton New Zealand needs to get tough with Israel. It’s not as if we haven’t done so before. When NZ authorities busted a Mossad operation in Auckland 20 years ago, the government didn’t say: “Oh well, Israel has the right to defend itself.” No, it arrested, prosecuted, ...
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The government's plan to reintroduce a three strikes regime is being strongly opposed by lawyers, who argue there is no evidence it reduces crime or helps people rehabilitate. ...
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While police are "broadly in favour", the government's proposed anti-gang laws are facing pushback from lawyers, rights groups and former gang members. ...
While police are "broadly in favour", the government's proposed anti-gang laws are facing pushback from lawyers, rights groups and former gang members. ...
By Miriam Zarriga in Port Moresby Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has arrived at Kokoda Station, Northern province, at the start of his state visit to Papua New Guinea. Both Albanese and Prime Minister James Marape will meet with the locals and the Northern Provincial government before they begin their ...
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The solo show from Ana Scotney is both sprawling and intimate, and a must-see, writes Mad Chapman. In the opening moments of Scattergun: After the Death of Rūaumoko, writer and performer Ana Scotney lays out the groundwork, literally. Silently moving around the square stage, Scotney is not so much dancing ...
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Responding to the Government’s announcement of changes to resource management laws, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director, Jordan Williams, said: “These changes are a step in the right direction in terms of removing ideological and unworkable ...
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If I haven't found something else to do by 7pm, or I don't forget, I might just watch this to see what Shaw does with the competition.
https://twitter.com/blogboynick/status/1313958654320599041
I'll be too busy shoving bamboo splinters under my fingernails.
that was my initial feeling, lol, but Shaw seems really on form at the moment.
Am watching, it's entertainment plus. winnie and jt are hard out ganging up on rimmer and jlr.
Shaw is on form
lol, yep that stuff was funny. Peters still got that smile too.
not so much fingernail pulling as yawnfest.
Just got a fundraising email from Labour telling me that regardless of the poll tonight the election will be close. Now I don’t know whether to be relieved or worried?
Hopefully if they know the result today, which they normally do with polls when they gauge party leaders reaction for the 30 second soundbite on the news, it means labour are still miles ahead and they’re just filling the coffers and getting the anti complacency vote out.
Not long to find out.
No change between the left and right blocs. National and Greens both down 1 point. Labour and Act unchanged. NZ First still competing for attention with TOP and the lunatic fringe. Nothing Judith is doing is convincing National voters who crossed to Labour to go back. The real issue now is whether the Greens can keep their head above water. I tend to think they will but it is too close for comfort.
So the leaders debates had no effect. JC's dog-whistling had no effect. Maori Party failed to even get 1%. Neocons & nutters have parity out on the fringe. NZF still no traction.
I just listened to Heather Duplicity-Allan interview her father, Barry Sober, about the CB poll. They both tried very hard to paint this as a failure for Labour and the Greens. This despite the poll showing Labour either governing alone in the case of the GP not making it, and governing with the GP should they make it. There are no other possibilities.
Barry Sober then referenced JA's drop in preferred PM from 54% to 50% by claiming as relevant a Herald digipoll in 2014 showing Jon Key at 60%!
The reckons of these two and their bank accounts need to be looked at by the Electoral Commission.
Ouch that burnt
As was pointed out last time they tried that comparison, the Herald poll factored out don't knows (so the total was 100%). The CB poll doesn't (to see this, just add up the numbers). It's comparing basketball points with netball.
Yeah, there’s obviously a lot of pillow-talk collusion between the two about how they are going to attack. Their off and on air relationship is a real threat to democracy in my opinion.
I'm actually quite impressed with the NZ public. Sure, I'd like even more support for both Labour and the Greens, but the real message from the polls is that there are two different worlds: Planet Hype and Planet Voter.
On Planet (Media) Hype everyone is reacting every day to all the latest headlines: who won the debate? who did a gaffe? which announcement is a "game changer"? what does the poll say? are voters changing their minds every 5 minutes?
On Planet Voter they just decide who they want to vote for, and the vast majority stick with their choice, and many have already put it in the ballot box.
No change in Colmar Brunton poll, no invented surge to entertain bored commentators who should be doing sport, not elections. Good.
yes, paid experts should be given the boot . get out and pick fruit you bloody parasites! hoskings and his partner and duplicious alien and her dad need to" get a haircut and a real job" (george thorogood)
I am beginning to wonder if anyone at all takes them seriously
I agree with that 200% Take tonights TVNZ news this female came on stating that Labour will need the greens to form a government and Arderns shine was going off with a massive drop in support (That is my interpretation of what she said).
A disaster I thought Collins and National have had a massive surge in support along with Rimmer.
No such thing, Ardern has dropped by 4%( don’t want any drop) to 50% and Labour are still on 47% no change. I cannot see any difference to their rating since the last poll and why she had to state (disaster) that Labout needed the Greens to form a Government, something we already knew.
Collins is still on 27% and National dropped by 1%.
I am surprised she didn't state that National was now on a roll as they have only dropped by 1% vs Arderns drop of 4% and Collins was still on 27% with no further drop.
https://twitter.com/MutchJessica/status/1314069388589367296
Still looking good for the left. Just need a few more lefties to choose Green instead of Labour and we might get a centre left govt to be proud of and that will act on climate change.
Well i really hope they do not make the threshhold this time! Their campaign strategy of take votes off labour whilst promoting themselves as "partner" is dishonest. They need to replace marama with some person of integrety and charisma. They present as deluded, self important, entitled, and self serving
Where is ACT going to find 11 sane people to fill those seats?
Bring back Hils!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57B8yP_MYtE
from here
https://twitter.com/maetl/status/1313647156243263491
watching tinydancer sheepdogging his herd will be one of the funnier things over the next three yrs. there will be bets on which one leaves parliament , either under a cloud, or in handcuffs. they have form on both.
Which will be the first to try bring a semi-automatic into the chamber?
Good result. Been worrying about it all day.
Difficult to see the numbers changing in a big way now.
More gold. An entire career shafting other people is undermining JuCo at her most needy hour.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/nz-election-2020-lack-of-sympathy-from-national-mps-for-judith-collins-over-perceived-disloyalty.html
Anyone else thinking of all those pundits (mostly clapped out National and ACT apparatchiki) who were sure Labour’s vote was soft and would head back to National once the campaign started? No, me neither.
If I'm right there's probably one more poll, or round of polls?
Likely to be at least one more Reid Research.
greens will be nervous
You'll need to vote Labour then. All Right-thinking people must save NZ from the Greens, and forget National's sunk ship. Logical, no?
I think you are just repeating what Heather and her father told you on ZB.
How good does that sound?
Be funny if they bailed on Collins now and begged Winston to be the "handbrake".
For this to be successful it would require a swing to NZF, in one week, of about 80,000 to 100,000 votes, no?
Last time 2,591,896 party votes were cast, so the threshold was 129,595 votes. This CB poll has them at 2%, so they would need another 3% = 77,757 votes. With a higher turnout even if just from population growth, 80,000 to 100,000 is an excellent estimate.
No. Pathway.
It's over for Wong Tung. Chucky is walking to her political grave, thank God.
Arise, Denise Lee.
nah ,maureen pugh, step forward! hah!
ROFL!!!!!!!
ROfl too. Hilarious
This is like a cricket One Day International. If there's a dominant side, the closer you get to the finish, the more certain the result becomes.
And the socially responsible left has wickets in hand.
I have just seen Rimmer on the TV. Why is he allowed out without the "H" on his forehead? Should be a law against that.
I'm surprised at how well JLR is presenting. Seymour's sounding reasonable. All have been tight & well-behaved actually.
Rimmer has got serious. When he was at 0.64%, anything went. Now, having vacuumed the rotting dregs of the post Key National Party he suddenly has to look grown up and less student.
yes, funs over for tinydancer. he will have to put on bigboy pants now. no more caucas meetings playing with,er by himself.
Here's the guy who can handle the tiny dancer and with a better jacket too. He's got real style in every way that the other can never come near.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UroApoVbKn0
Wish a journalist would get serious and ask that prick why he hates the lowest paid so much that he wants to freeze their pay rate for three years.
And cut benefits, because he feels they need to tighten their belt???
To avoid them losing jobs would be at least one answer. I don't believe that it would do that any more than anyone else does, but it's typical of their claptrap.
Mutch-=McKay really doesn't know what she is talking about , if Labour got 47% to Nat?Act 40 and the Greens miss out ( which I doubt will happen ) surely the final washup gives Labour well over 50% of seats available because they are 7% ahead which is probably 10 seats. Am I wrong?
That's correct, if the Greens miss out.
But she may be referring to the situation if the Greens get back in. Their seat count gives Labour 60 seats if the Greens get back in, one short of a majority. Then they would need to have some kind of arrangement with the Greens.
A WEALTH TAX arrangement perhaps ? New Green votes from poor people should help.
Yes logically a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement. But even without either or those, Labour could on those numbers govern alone as a minority government with the Greens on the cross benches, as long as the Greens don't join Nat and ACT and vote no confidence, which of course they wouldn't do.
much-ado is trying to remain relevant.
Give Sir Kimj Workman a noble prize. People like him and Celia Laslie are up there with the tops in our country.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427908/correcting-corrections-are-prison-reforms-repairing-maori-inequities
…Sir Kim says the focus needs to be on ensuring fewer Māori end up in prison in the first place. He says changes to the Bail Act brought in under National in 2013 have driven up the number of Māori on remand.
"The problem was that the remand prisons became a major recruiting ground for the gangs and we had young Māori ending up in there, for the first time often, getting bashed up by the gangs and threatened if they didn't join."
Justice Minister Andrew Little criticised this law in 2018, but no action was taken…
Seems that the Advance party has been rewarded for their irresponsible anti-lockdown rally with thousands of people . I am angry that all minor parties were not invited onto tonight's debate. SO UNFAIR !
Nonsense. The other parties are all polling below 1% . That is why they weren't invited. There has to be a threshold otherwise every Tom, Dick, Harry and a smattering of raving lunatics would have to be invited.
Then, nobody would bother to watch.
Those polling the same or more than Advance include the New Conservative and TOP
If you say so. I can't be bothered to check.
So, that must mean those who poll below 2% are not eligible to be included.
Drove into Darwin NT with the kids this morning to vote I was hoping to give NZ Labour 2 ✔️. But I haven’t seen NZL’s Defence or Veterans Policy for this election, so I guess NZL don’t give a shit about us these days & looks like the NZDF & Veterans budget will be cut over the next 3yrs then?
Also i didn’t vote Green either
1, I’m over ID politics & sometimes I my 4x Great Uncle Nye Bevan was still around have the Greens an education on the less privilege classes,
2, Did bugger all on NZ Veterans welfare as they some pretty good policies for Veterans btw,
3, Complaining about the new C130J’s and saying the AirNZ’s 787’s would’ve been cheaper WTF Golriz. Try landing one of those wee beasties into Dili Airport. The L101 Tristar Jet in 99 could just barely make into Dili, same same for the RNZAF B757 in 06 and the RAAF C17 landed there in 06. But had to reverse back the runway in order to take off again or else if it turned on the runway they would’ve rip the runway up in the process. No doubt she would complain about the Navies new purpose built Landing Ship and the Southern Ocean Patrol Ship as well as both of these won’t cheap either the NZG the NZDF won’t get much change out of NZD 1.5B.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkU1ob_lHCw&feature=emb_title