Daily Review 09/07/2018

Written By: - Date published: 5:34 pm, July 9th, 2018 - 30 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

30 comments on “Daily Review 09/07/2018”

  1. Wayne 1

    I see the govt has announced the P8 buy today. One of the big ticket items of the $20 billion over the next 15 years. In fact $2.3 billion.

    They are the only logical choice. The P8 is literally the only aircraft with the range to cover the entire EEZ, and the search and rescue zone. Basically they are a new P3.

    Along with the frigates, the SAS , the 800 man battalion 1RNZIR, they are the core capability of the NZDF.

    I would note that this purchase does not increase the NZDF share of govt expenditure. NZDF is just a shade over 1% of GDP as it has been for the last 15 years, and will be for the next 15 years. So it doesn’t affect other govt expenditure anymore than it has in the last 15 years.

    • RedLogix 1.1

      Absolute respect for the people who serve in the NZDF and their proud tradition … but your outline above is probably the most cogent reason why NZ may well one day become the seventh state of the Australian Federation.

    • Ad 1.2

      Minister Mark has done a remarkable job in a short space of time.

      This is the biggest purchase since the frigates back in the day and it looks like the story will pass with very little media attention.

      Good skills there Minister.

    • Exkiwiforces 1.3

      You left out

      2nd/ 1st battalion group,the QAMR CAV Regt which is the 3rd Combat group since we don’t have 3rd Infantry battalion group and the Air Task Group to support the RNZN and Army.

  2. joe90 2

    Speaking of Scots.

    We have the right to a peaceful protest and it will be peaceful and creative -Turnberry 9am Saturday 14th July. Bring songs, signs and be respectful to the police Scotland attending – they never asked to protect this clackwanker, like Brexit they got dragged into it. pic.twitter.com/Muhuw0JJKQ— Janey Godley (@JaneyGodley) July 6, 2018

    https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1015207997616816128

    https://janeygodley.com/2016/06/28/welcomed-trump-scotland/

  3. Sanctuary 3

    “…They are the only logical choice…”

    Not it isn’t. The Kawasaki P-1 was probably a better mission fit for the MPA (Maritime Patrol Aircraft) missions flown by NZ. I thought Ron Mark’s dismissal of the P-1 involved a curious mix of circular logic and easily dismissed arguments.

    The RNZAF Orions spend plenty of time stooging around at low altitude doing SAR and maritime surveillance. The P-8 is based on the Boeing 737-800 with relatively small (124 square metre) -900’s wings and raked wingtips. Therefore:

    1/ -The 737 is designed and optimized for flying at altitudes of 35,000-42,000 feet. Their engines, wings, fuselage etc. are all optimized for these altitudes.
    2/ Swept wings are more suited for high speed and high altitude compared to straight wings.
    3/ Angle of sweep is directly proportional to stall speed, thus the P-8 can only operate in a much narrower range of speeds than the P-3/Kawasaki P-1 can and P-8 stall speed is higher.
    4/ The larger wing area of the P-1 also reduces stall speed while increasing it’s agility.

    The Kawasaki P-1 was designed from the ground up for operating at low altitudes at slow speeds. It has four engines, meaning it can operate on three (as the Orions do) to save fuel and increase loiter. The P-1 is therefore a better design for the bread-and-butter work done by the RNZAF MPA fleet.

    The P-1 can also of course efficiently kill submarines, using an advanced ASW suite and traditional, low level acquisition and attack techniques.

    The P-8 ASW mission profile turns all conventional wisdom on it’s head. The P-8 ASW mission profile appears to be a result of creating the most expensive ASW mission kit imaginable then building the MPA ASW tactical mission around it – typical of the mind boggling levels of corruption in US defense procurement.

    Basically, the P-8A is a design that means a complete change in RNZAF ASW tactics, with the P-8 supposed to be doing it’s weapons release from 30,000 feet. That’s because it is expected to work in tandem with a large UAV.

    In the US Navy – and probably Australia – this is going to be the Northrop Grumman RQ-4N Triton UAV – a maritime-patrol version of the Global Hawk long-range surveillance UAV. These cost a cool $250 million NZ dollars each, and you can bet the the RNZAF wallahs will soon be whining they need the drones for the expensive MPAs to be 100% effective in the ASW role.

    The real reason we got the P-8 is because of interoperability with Australia. To that extent, Ron Mark is right when he says we had no choice. The RNZAF freeloads off the RAAF all the time for parts it can’t afford to keep in stock in sufficient numbers, while if a P-8 breaks down in Darwin or Perth a part can be got from RAAF in a jiffy, whereas the P-1 would be stuck there for a week while a new part was delivered from NZ or Japan.

    Realistically, this purchase puts us in the hole for an additional billion for UAVs sometime in the next 10-15 years – and I guarantee we’ll also announce at some stage soon the lease/purchase of 2-4 ATR-72 sized turboprops to supplement the low level SAR and surveillance role.

    Personally, I would have gone with five or six Kawasaki P-1s.

    • Wayne 3.1

      My understanding is that the P8’s do a lot of their on station work at relatively low level (5,000 ft to 15,000 ft). Of course they fly to their patrol station at higher altitude.

      These aircraft (as with our P3’s) are used for their ELINT work much more than ASW. Basically listening to the spectrum and looking at things through the profiling radar and the MX20 camera. The current P3 fit out is not very much different to the early P8’s. Though with a 2023 delivery, presumably our P8’s will have a decade newer technology, and way more processing power.

      The Kawasaki was a big risk. Could it be supported in all circumstances? In contrast a lot of nations have bought the P8 (US, UK, Australia, India, Norway, Singapore, South Korea). Support is guaranteed, plus easy interoperability.

      So a pretty easy choice I would have thought, even if the Kawasaki is a slightly better airframe. I understand the heart of the aircraft (the mission fit out) is similar on the Kawasaki as the P8, but it is sufficiently different to be a purchase risk.

      • Sanctuary 3.1.1

        The P-8 can of course operate at low level – but at only at higher speed, and expect a bumpier ride and a lot more stress on the airframe than you’d see in the P-1, all of which translates to a shorter service life.

        Also – something basic but vital – the P-1 has much bigger windows than the P-8 for the Mk.1 eyeball.

    • Exkiwiforces 3.2

      I would’ve prefer the P1 over the P8 as it comes with some pretty big strings attached as it’s a part of the US Special Projects Program than the P1. but in saying that the P1 has a lot more risk than the P8 and one of those risk is being the sole overseas customer and one needs to remember the issues the NZDF had with the NH90’s and Project Protector which cost the life of one sailor along with a number of injured sailors and only just recently in the news an OPV was nearly lost at sea with all hands as it almost capsized in the Southern Ocean on one of the Summer Patrols.

  4. Draco T Bastard 4

    Interesting thread:

    1. I happened to listen to @NPR for a few hours this morning, and I heard three stories that are very much connected to #climatechange without anyone on the radio mentioning climate change even once.

    It was surreal and disturbing.

    It’s a good point as well. Many things that are happening in the world right now are influenced by climate change and often for the worse.

  5. AsleepWhileWalking 5

    Australia is fining poor families if they refuse vaccinations. So some NZ docs want us to follow suit.

    Q: Why is there no balance in the debate?

    I’d give a fair listen to any Doc who told me that I really didn’t want my kids to die of tetanus, but there are reasons to be concerned over certain vaccines, followed by a drank discussion of how to mitigate danger of vaccines.

    The blind faith in vaccines is just as dangerous as the opposing extreme.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 5.1

      Approx 36 mins in discussion of Australia’s penalties for refusing to vaccinate, followed by NZ should follow intvw wihh Dr Lance O’Sullivan on The Project (with discussion of failures of the hosts…but Richie says is more succinctly)

      https://www.podomatic.com/podcasts/richieallen/episodes/2018-07-05T10_59_44-07_00

    • corodale 5.2

      Time to slacken gun laws.

    • One Two 5.3

      A few years have gone by since the Nats openly floated the idea of compulsion for beneficiaries…it didn’t work then and it won’t work now either…

      There isn’t any debate in public on the issue (all/any serious issues), but there is a power of resistence at all levels which is gathering momentum globally…which equally can’t and won’t be halted…it will only propagate exponentially…

      Debate can be avoided or unreported but it can’t be stopped, despite those who wish to see ‘free speech’ curtailed…

      The last few days in another thread has shown there are many even in this site who are comfortable with free speech being curtailed…some actually believe NZ has a ‘good’ level of debate…which is of course, incorrect…

      Subject matter with no debate or a white washed one sided presentation of ‘facts’ should be a red flag to any coherent mind…

      Financial extortion is illegal…financially extorting the vulnerable should illustrate all that needs to be known or understood…conflicts of interest explain the policy…

    • RedLogix 6.1

      Well worth the listen. I’m curious, why did you pick this one joe?

      • joe90 6.1.1

        Dude’s warm, clever, human, and because I thought folk would like it.

        edit: the hats quip is rather prophetic

  6. Craig H 7

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/105347319/ird-and-mbie-workers-stop-work-in-favour-of-better-pay-provisions

    A big strike today from IR and MBIE with rallies in Auckland, Hamilton, Palmerston North, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin, plus volunteering in Nelson, Timaru and Invercargill, and other action in Whangarei and Tauranga (and presumably everywhere else MBIE and IRD have staff). More power to workers at both!

  7. joe90 8

    This has to be in the running as the most absurd of 2018.

    .

    The United States threatened to hit Ecuador with retaliatory trade measures and to pull military aid over the South American country proposing an international resolution that encouraged breastfeeding. The US eventually agreed to the resolution — when Russia backed it.

    American officials surprised international delegates at the United Nations-affiliated World Health Assembly in May when they opposed a widely popular resolution to promote breastfeeding, according to a report from Andrew Jacobs at the New York Times on Sunday. Specifically, they pushed to remove language asking governments to “protect, promote, and support breast-feeding.” They also took issue with a passage that called for policymakers to restrict the promotion of food products that may harm children.

    […]

    Trump has called breastfeeding “disgusting”

    The president himself has also expressed revulsion at the act of breastfeeding.

    Trump in a 2011 deposition reportedly became upset when an attorney named Elizabeth Beck requested a break to pump breast milk for her three-month-old daughter. The lawyer, Elizabeth Beck, told CNN in 2015 that Trump called her “disgusting.”

    https://www.vox.com/2018/7/8/17546142/trump-breastfeeding-new-york-times-ecuador

  8. corodale 9

    Hey, was there less trolling last week?
    Cause those banking pawns aren’t shy to be busy with a week of preperation for 7/7.
    “Oh Lord, wont you buy me, a Mercedes Benz.”

  9. Pat 10

    Hmmmm…
    “The EIA report acknowledges significant uncertainties in its calculation but believes it has been conservative in estimating 10,000-12,000 tonnes a year of CFC-11 leaking into the atmosphere from foam-making in China from 2012-17. The scientific study that revealed the surge estimated emissions between 8,000 and 18,000 tonnes over the same period.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/09/mysterious-source-of-illegal-ozone-killing-emissions-revealed-say-investigators

    https://content.eia-global.org/posts/documents/000/000/761/original/Blowing-It_CFC11_Report_EIA.pdf?1531089183

  10. adam 11

    Is it one of those days.

    With the madness in the world, Egypt in now so sensitive, that even a facebook video will land you 11 years in jail. They were nice though and cut her sentence to 8.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12085645

    • corodale 11.1

      Time to re-establish the Ottoman empire?
      If only our lads had had better luck at Gallipolli, we would smoothed things over with Egypt.

  11. SCUMBAG NEO LIBERALISM.

    Big Read: Why renters won’t complain about landlords – NZ Herald
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid

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