Daily review 10/01/2022

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1. Ed 1

   10 January 2022 at 5:37 pm

   There are serious concerns that this year will see the smouldering embers of the new cold war erupt into a hot war. Events in Kazakhstan, the Ukraine, the South China Sea and the Strait of Hormuz show there are several dangerous embers around.
   • Gezza 1.1

     10 January 2022 at 7:42 pm

     Possibly.

     Kazakhstan – Al Jazeera reporting takes view there’s a power struggle going on betweeen the former president & the new one. Bur at this point it seems likely to me the unrest will be contained by very ruthless suppression of dissent & the Russians will probably decide who rules. At present they’re backing the current president.

     This is the first time they’ve agreed to send peacekeeping troops in. Previous requests for peacekeeping/intervention forces to the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO – Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) have, according to Aljaz tv), all been rebuffed. There’s no sign this unrest is spreading yet.

     Ukraine – this could go hot, admittedly, but I don’t think Russia wants it to, hence the talks with the US. If anything blows up they’ll likely sort it out at the UN once Russian irregulars have consolidated its position on the ground in Donbas.

     The South China Sea – maybe. I don’t think either the US or China want a military confrontation & I doubt there’ll be a PRC invasion of Taiwan. I expect China to continue bullying other countries with overlapping territorial claims. Xi is intent in having China’s regional primacy recognised. If this area goes to a hot war it will because of a major misclculation by someone, & will be rapidly cooled at the UN, imo.

     The Strait of Hormuz – the Iranian regime are certainly risk takers when it comes to attacking shipping in the strait when they can’t get their way in talks, but they’re not insane enough to provoke the US directly. The only thing to watch for a 3rd party like Israel or perhaps the Saudis doing something to use as justification for an attack on Iran, in the hope of sucking in the US. I think the risk of a hot war is no higher this year than last.
     • Stuart Munro 1.1.1

       10 January 2022 at 9:35 pm

       Pretty sound I think.

       But there may be some room for an inciting incident in the Middle East. You may recall the drone attack on Saudi? Drone strikes at world's largest oil processing facility in Saudi, Yemen rebels claim attack – YouTube Although the Houthis claim credit, there is a short list of countries that may have enabled or supplied the drone technology, including Iran, Russia, and even Turkey. (The latter not so much from any obvious motive but they are exporting fighting drones to Ukraine, so they must have the capacity).
       • Stuart Munro 1.1.1.1

         10 January 2022 at 9:54 pm

         Al Jazeera reckons Saudi is running out of air defence missiles shooting Houthi drones.
     • McFlock 1.1.2

       10 January 2022 at 9:39 pm

       Himalayas. Multiple nuclear nations wanting minerals and to secure glacial water supplies.

       Been a lowish level (but direct, non-proxy) conflict zone for decades.
       • Ed 1.1.2.1

         11 January 2022 at 4:51 pm

         There is the issue of water wars in the Himalayas.

         Gwynne Dyer posited this scenario in his book 'Climate Wars.'

         In 2010, he wrote

         The per capita supply of water in Pakistan has fallen from more than 5000cu m annually in 1947 to only about 1000cu m today, a level defined by the United Nations as high stress.

         Of that, 96% goes to irrigation, and the Indus no longer reaches the sea in most years.

         That's what has already happened, even before the melting of the glaciers has gone very far.

         Fifteen or 20 years from now, the water shortage (and therefore also food scarcities) will be a permanent political obsession in Pakistan.
2. joe90 2

   10 January 2022 at 7:02 pm

   Who need passes when the solution is right under our noses.

   They’re going shots for shots.

   First-dose vaccine appointments quadrupled in Quebec after the Canadian province required vaccine passports to buy alcohol and marijuana.

   https://sports.yahoo.com/vaccine-appointments-multiply-quebec-requires-035600461.html
3. joe90 3

   10 January 2022 at 7:22 pm

   Because close contact at work is different.

   /

   Close contacts of Covid cases employed in critical supply chains will have their isolation requirements scrapped, in an attempt to address workforce shortages that have hit the food industry.

   Announcing a shake-up of isolation requirements on Monday, the prime minister, Scott Morrison, said the requirements would not apply to customer-facing roles, but those working in “critical supply chains”.

   […]

   “Those who are driving the truck to deliver the food, those who are stacking the shelves at night, those who are in the distribution centres, those who are in the abattoirs, those who are in the manufacturing places that are producing food,” Morrison said.

   The changes will bring the food distribution industry and emergency services in line with requirements that already apply in the health and aged care sectors.

   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/10/covid-isolation-rules-scrapped-for-critical-workers-to-protect-food-supply-chain
   • weka 3.1

     10 January 2022 at 10:42 pm

     because apparently we didn't learn in the first year of the pandemic who really keeps the world going round.
     • bwaghorn 3.1.1

       11 January 2022 at 6:34 am

       yip while I'm lucky not to have been locked up in a city, it stings a little that I went to work every day of the lock downs, no recognition for us cogs.
       • weka 3.1.1.1

         11 January 2022 at 9:34 am

         those lucky farmers, eh

         /sarc
     • Sabine 3.1.2

       11 January 2022 at 8:44 am

       Non so blind as those that don't want to see.
     • joe90 3.1.3

       11 January 2022 at 8:58 am

       What could possibly go wrong, right?

       https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1480179160052125699
4. Koff 4

   10 January 2022 at 8:10 pm

   Looks like Djokovic's Aussie visa will be reinstated after the federal court judge this afternoon demolished the government's case for visa cancellation. I don't like Djokovic, his anti-vaccine opinions, arrogance and whacky ideas but in this instance, he appears to have done everything right and it is the federal government / Border Force that has made a blunder. Probably Scomo was alerted to the very negative impression that Djokovic's exemption to allow him to play in the Australian Open made on the Australian public in the lead up to the federal election that might have made him put pressure on the govt department in charge of immigration to unilaterally cancel his visa without considering whether the decison was right or not. Very rare for any court case against Home Affairs to win, but guess Djokovic had plenty of dollars for clever lawyers. Most ordinary mortals who contest a Border Force decision lose and pay all costs.
   • alwyn 4.1

     10 January 2022 at 8:50 pm

     The problem seems to me to be a row between the Victorian State Government, which is Labour, and the Federal Government, which is led by the Liberal Party.

     I certainly think the Djokovic has been stuffed around but I find it hard to see that the Federal Government are to blame. It seems to be more Tennis Australia and the State Government who mucked things up.
     • Dennis Frank 4.1.1

       10 January 2022 at 8:59 pm

       Perhaps they think they're playing tennis & he's the ball? Nah, too simple. News story I saw on the tube tonight pointed to immense bureaucratic complexities & obfuscations. Claimed he'd jumped through all the right hoops in their process but maybe they moved the goal-posts while he was jumping…
     • Blazer 4.1.2

       10 January 2022 at 9:07 pm

       alwyn,I say alwyn…just the glee exhibited by Scomo regarding his rejection, means I would love to see the worlds no.1 play in the…open.
     • Koff 4.1.3

       10 January 2022 at 9:32 pm

       Read the link or just watch the TV news update! Not the state government, or Tennis Australia's fault. Scomo hoping to distract attention from his government's disastrous Covid response and Dept of Home Affairs ballsing it up.
     • Tricledrown 4.1.4

       11 January 2022 at 12:06 pm

       Alwynger what the Scott Morrison is to blame.

       Just like opening the borders letting the bodies pile up and burnout and burn off healthcare workers.

       Scomo is a dick
   • Bearded Git 4.2

     10 January 2022 at 10:10 pm

     He didn't do everything right…he didn't get vaccinated.

     ScoMo can't afford to let him play at the Oz Open…too many votes at stake and he would look like an idiot.

     The federal government is the ultimate arbitrator on border matters…higher than the courts…they will cancel his visa and send him packing.
     • Koff 4.2.1

       10 January 2022 at 11:12 pm

       Scomo is an idiot. Djokovic got an exemption based on his supposed Covid infection in early December. The exemption was validated by the Oz equivalent of MedSafe (ATAGI) which allows anyone who has had a Covid infection 6 months before they need to be vaccinated based on their acquired immunity from the infection. One might be suspicious of Djokovic's Serbian positive test result, as Serbian authorities are probably only one step up from those in Kazakhstan, but he had his 'exemption evidence' approved and a confirmation of approval from Home Affairs just before he got on the plane in Belgrade. You're right that the federal government can override the court's decision but probably won't as it would just make Scomo and Australia look even more stupid. They will probably find some face saving compromise and move on. One slightly positive result is that it has focused international attention on the government's sordid treatment of refugees in detention, some for 9 years, in the same Melbourne hotel that Djokovic was detained in.
       • Bearded Git 4.2.1.1

         11 January 2022 at 12:30 pm

         My understanding is the loophole that Djok has used-a positive Covid test within 6 months of needing to be vaccinated-does not exist; this has been explicitly stated by the federal government. It was just the Victorian government and the tennis authorities who decided that this loophole worked and so granted the visa because they were both desperate for him to play in the Oz.

         But ScoMo is so pathetic that he may do another u-turn (having already executed one in the Djok case) and allow Djok to play.

         I hope this is the case because this is a sure-fire vote loser for him in the upcoming federal elections. Meanwhile Djok has become an icon of the extreme right and anti-vaxxers according to the Guardian today. He is going to get a lovely reception in Melbourne.
5. Bearded Git 5

   10 January 2022 at 10:10 pm

   He didn't do everything right…he didn't get vaccinated.

   ScoMo can't afford to let him play at the Oz Open…too many votes at stake and he would look like an idiot.

   The federal government is the ultimate arbitrator on border matters…higher than the courts…they will cancel his visa and send him packing.

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