Daily review 13/07/2023

24 comments on “Daily review 13/07/2023 ”

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1. Dennis Frank 1

   13 July 2023 at 5:53 pm

   So it was Labour's focus groups that spooked the PM. Check out the excellent choice of photos that display the organic relationship of Labour to its supporters: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/07/13/dr-bryce-edwards-political-roundup-labour-keeps-the-status-quo-on-tax-but-has-it-shot-itself-in-the-foot/

   In ruling out progressive tax reform such as a wealth tax, Hipkins is keeping alive the possibility of winning over wealthier voters who might be considering voting for National. He’s made an electoral calculation based on the potential votes that could be lost, and whether he and his party have the capacity to successfully sell the concept of a wealth tax to the electorate. There are reports today that Labour’s focus groups made it clear that the wealth tax was a risk for the Government’s re-election. In that sense it’s an understandable decision.

   But it’s a terrible move for Labour’s progressive reputation and standing. Voters who want to see progress made on inequality, poverty, and a genuinely transformational leftwing government after 14 October will be severely disillusioned. The question of significant tax reform has become a symbol amongst progressive voters of the need for radical change.

   Leftwing blogger No Right Turn typified the angry leftwing response yesterday, writing: “Labour, ‘the party of the workers’, has sided with the ultra-rich to f*** over normal people, as usual. But then, should we really expect anything different from a man paid $471,049 a year, who owns three houses? Bluntly, he’s not one of us – he’s one of them. Of course he stands for their interests rather than ours”.

   Business journalist Bernard Hickey has written a scathing analysis today. He sees Hipkins’ decision as a complete capitulation to vested interests over the common good: “That’s it. It will now be almost impossible for a wealth or capital gains tax to be implemented within the next decade or two. The future of Aotearoa’s political economy will now remain frozen in its stagnant, unequal, unjust, unproductive and unhealthy state for the foreseeable future… The announcement yesterday of the freeze on the full wealth tax debate probably added another 10-20% overnight to land values".

   This overview effectively shows how the PM's support for vested interests is likely to play out in the public arena: making a slice of undecided voters sure that Labour is part of the problem, not part of the solution.
   • Anne 1.1

     13 July 2023 at 7:27 pm

     There are reports today that Labour’s focus groups made it clear that the wealth tax was a risk for the Government’s re-election.

     First of all Bryce Edwards is a fraudster in the political sense. He cherry picks his links to create a scenario which is always negative towards Labour. It doesn't take rocket science to read what's going on. He's pleasing his paymasters. I stopped reading him years ago,

     Second, focus polling is par for the course for most political parties. I don't know how often Labour does it, but you can bet your bottom dollar National are doing it almost on a daily basis. They can afford it. Hence the obsessive fixation on law'n order. The same goes for ACT who can also afford it.

     Yet when Labour does the odd focus grouping, it is considered to be something to belittle. Talk about an uneven playing field.
2. SPC 2

   13 July 2023 at 6:17 pm

   There are reports today that Labour’s focus groups made it clear that the wealth tax was a risk for the Government’s re-election. In that sense it’s an understandable decision.

   If that is true – who are Labour's focus groups and what connection, if anything, do they have to the membership of the Labour Party, or voters of the Labour Party.

   Has Labour made the decision to allow its policies to be vetted/vetoed by centrist voter focus groups?

   And how centrist is a group that opposes a wealth tax impacting even less than the Greens wealth tax, because Labour's excluded the family home and bumped up the exemption from 2 to $5M per person and from 4 to $10M for couples?

   I’m guessing the company running these focus groups somehow just happens to manages to include a few clever people who easily manipulate the rest to imagine a threat to all property owners from tax changes. This is how cults brainwash/herd new members.
3. Mac1 3

   13 July 2023 at 6:36 pm

   "I’m guessing".

   Yep.
   • Dennis Frank 3.1

     13 July 2023 at 6:44 pm

     Interesting point tho. To be fair to Labour, they may have done a sort of due diligence design of such groups to make them representative of the electorate. Well, that would require 1000 members to be statistically valid, but a convenient simulation thereof.
     • SPC 3.1.1

       13 July 2023 at 6:48 pm

       The representative nature of them is irrelevant to the ability of motivated (and well versed in the nuances of the debate on the topic) people to manipulate others.
       • Dennis Frank 3.1.1.1

         13 July 2023 at 7:00 pm

         Oh, very true. However, I doubt the capacity of neolib zealots to function effectively as commissars – as likely as not to screw things up inadvertently as get their intended result I suspect. Murphy's law. I've never seen much persuasive evidence of Labour's political organising ability. But you could be right…
         • Mac1 3.1.1.1.1

           13 July 2023 at 7:23 pm

           "I've never seen much persuasive evidence of Labour's political organising ability. "

           2020 election result. Labour party 1,443,546 votes 50%.

           This is not 'guessing', not reckons, but hard data.

           As of tomorrow, the election period begins.

           Time to take cognisance of that fact. Get involved, get working, put some time, money and effort into the fight.

           The outcome does matter……..
           • Patricia Bremner 3.1.1.1.1.1

             13 July 2023 at 8:08 pm

             100% Mac1
           • Corey 3.1.1.1.1.2

             14 July 2023 at 2:22 am

             Come now.

             2020 was a fluke. That was not a mass grassroots organizational movement as most of the election was under COVID protocols.

             Labour is not a mass membership party (they'd release their membership numbers if they were) and they are not an effective political machine in campaigns.

             Labours best people run campaign, in my lifetime was in 2017, and they came second in that one.

             2020 was a strange election it can't be counted, canvassing, doorknocking and getting out the vote was extremely hampered by COVID rules and quite frankly, Labour probably rues the day it got a full majority and couldn't blame problems on a coalition partner.
             • Mac1 …

               14 July 2023 at 9:05 am

               Corey, so it just happened? An absolute majority down to, what, luck?

               Labour reacted best to the covid pandemic and put up candidates and policies that resonated with the voters, showed up with far better leaders and a three year track record of good, fair and inclusive leadership.

               Now the opposition sees that and uses the tactics of social division, lies and greed.

               The National leader came recently to our town. Only party members came to his public meeting.

               This election will be down to how we react, how we get out and work for victory.

               It is not a time for grizzling, grumping and false guessing.

               Grouching in this forum is not going to change the world. Indeed, rather by deeds, by effort, by getting out there.

               This week we open our electorate head quarters, in a prime location that will be seen by thousands of locals and travellers alike. In the past week we have had three MPs visit, and our new and quite superb young candidate is out and about. Hoarding are arriving, the pace is quickening.

               In 1999, I counted the number of empty shops in our provincial town. After nine long years of National, there were over thirty empty premises. Now, they are being snapped up. Unemployment here is very low, the building trades fully employed and many apprentices being trained.

               I had a tradie visit yesterday to talk bathroom renovations. He can do the work near Christmas, he is that busy.

               It's not all doom and gloom. The purveyors of that message are playing into the hands of National and the Right.

               They don't want a large turnout. They don't want young voters registering. That old rightist ploy of "Don't vote, it only encourages them" is rearing its ugly and antisocial head again.

               Take heed, take courage, take action!
               • Patricia Bremner …

                 14 July 2023 at 2:53 pm

                 Thanks Mac1. All valid points
     • Incognito 3.1.2

       13 July 2023 at 8:23 pm

       Well, that would require 1000 members to be statistically valid, but a convenient simulation thereof.

       You clearly have no idea what you’re talking about, again. The validity of a statistical doesn’t rely on the number of samples/observations. And what does a ‘convenient simulation of 1,000 members’ mean? Have you ever conducted a poll/survey other than a Doodle poll? I bet you have not, and it shows.
4. Dennis Frank 4

   13 July 2023 at 6:39 pm

   A sketch of Matariki & historical context:

   In Japan, it is called Subaru. Not a car, but the name of a star cluster. In India, it is Krittika. Here in Aotearoa, it is Matariki. They are all versions of the Pleiades… In Greek stories, the Pleiades are the seven daughters of the titan Atlas who were pursued by the hunter Orion.

   In some Aboriginal cultures, it is about seven sisters running away from the Jampijinpa man. He follows them into the sky, travelling as a star in the Orion's Belt cluster. The story is so similar in vastly different cultures that it inspired astrophysicist Ray Norris to explore whether it could be our oldest.

   Norris has written a book about Aboriginal astronomy, highlighting the depth and complexity of their knowledge of the sky, and says their Seven Sisters story is uncannily similar to the ancient Greek myth despite there being no cultural connection between them and the Europeans until Australia was invaded by the British.

   "We all came out of Africa around 100,000 years ago. Is it possible that story could be that old?" Tentatively yes, says Norris, pointing to stories around the world which share the same theme, not just about the seven sisters being pursued by the hunter from Orion, but explanations about why there are only six bright stars. In Islam, for example, one of the sisters fell to earth; in some Aboriginal cultures one of the sisters is ashamed and hiding behind a bush. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/podcast-card/matarikis-link-in-a-chain-of-star-stories

   There's a backgrounder here: https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300612585/matariki-101-what-is-it-why-does-it-matter

   Matariki aligns with the Maramataka, the ancient Polynesian lunar calendar used when Māori first arrived in Aotearoa around 800 to 1000 years ago. The maramataka system synchronises the daily activities of people with the natural world, Moon, Sun, stars and planets. The new year begins with the first new moon following the appearance of Matariki, thus a new cycle.

   The astronomical basis of that calendar is outlined here:

   The Pleiades constellation (Matariki) is visible for most of the year in New Zealand, except for approximately a month in the middle of winter. Matariki finally sets in the west in the early evening in May, and reappears just prior to sunrise in late June or early July, which begins the first month of the Māori lunar calendar, Pipiri (meaning to huddle together). All the months of the Māori calendar are indicated by this heliacal rising of a particular star on the eastern horizon just before dawn, on the night of the new moon

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matariki#External_links

   Readers unfamiliar with heliacal as tech term ought to follow the link to its page to discover how it originated the calendar in ancient Egypt…
   • ianmac 4.1

     14 July 2023 at 8:49 am

     Dennis: "The Pleiades constellation (Matariki) is visible for most of the year in New Zealand, except for approximately a month in the middle of winter. Matariki finally sets in the west in the early evening in May, and reappears just prior to sunrise in late June or early July, which begins the first month of the Māori lunar calendar, Pipiri (meaning to huddle together).

     And: "In Japan, it is called Subaru. Not a car, but the name of a star cluster. In India, it is Krittika. Here in Aotearoa, it is Matariki. They are all versions of the Pleiades… In Greek stories, the Pleiades are the seven daughters of the titan Atlas who were pursued by the hunter Orion."

     Best summary that outlines the context. Thanks.
     • Dennis Frank 4.1.1

       14 July 2023 at 9:11 am

       Hey, I researched the origin of the zodiac back in the mid-'80s and discovered the common root with the calendar. The vernal equinox is the key. It is the origin of most of those paradigmatic social frames of reference. Hipparchos separated the constellations from the signs when he realised (from measurements) that the tropics & equinoxes were slowly shifting relative to the stars.

       We inherited two different matrices in consequence, with relativity forming the relation between them. Media spats tween astrologers & scientists usually feature mutual incomprehension as a result.

       Heliacal rising is separate but equally profound due to being experiential & collective. One gets this by rising early to see it pre-dawn. Heaven/earth synch is a prehistoric sharing between humans…
5. Dennis Frank 5

   13 July 2023 at 6:55 pm

   Looks like Jack & Xi thrashed out a deal. I thought Xi had tossed him into jail & thrown away the key when he disappeared.

   Ant Group has announced a share buyback that values it at $78.5 billion, which is about $230 billion or 75% less than the valuation it fetched nearly three years ago, before its IPO was yanked by Chinese regulators. The company was co-founded by Jack Ma, as was e-commerce giant Alibaba Group (BABA). https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/investing/china-ant-group-valuation-jack-ma-intl-hnk/index.html

   The combined loss of market capitalization for Ant and Alibaba totals some $877 billion, according to a CNN calculation based on peak share prices recorded in late October 2020, around the time the entrepreneur blasted Chinese financial regulators and banks in a landmark speech.

   Ma’s blistering criticism set off the most sweeping and severe regulatory crackdown in the history of corporate China, which affected the fortunes of other tech giants including Tencent (TCEHY), Didi and Meituan.

   The measures included fines over alleged anti-competitive behavior and bans from app stores citing fears over data security. Almost three years on, the campaign appears to be coming to an end. On Friday, Chinese financial regulators fined Ant and its subsidiaries a total of 7.1 billion yuan ($984 million) for breaking rules related to consumer protection and corporate governance.

   Naughty Jack told the truth before he got taken out:

   “China doesn’t have systemic financial risks, because it basically has no financial system,” Ma said. He also blasted China’s state-controlled banks for having a “pawn shop” mentality and failing to support companies starved of financing. A few days after the speech, regulators summoned Ma to a meeting in Beijing.

   Now, he's been rehabilitated. Hope the time in Siberia was character-building.

   At its height in 2021, the crackdown wiped $3 trillion off the market value of Chinese companies globally. But earlier this year, the country’s authorities said a clampdown on the financial businesses of 14 internet companies was “basically over,” sending a clear signal that they wanted to help private firms prop up an ailing economy. Months later, Ma began to make public appearances in mainland China.

   Only $3 trillion? Just a cloud passing over the sun…
   • Blazer 5.1

     13 July 2023 at 8:30 pm

     'systemic risk' is shorthand for the U.S losing it's free ride with the petro dollar and controlling the IMF,World Bank,Swift and never having to repay ..it's collossal debt.
6. Cricklewood 6

   13 July 2023 at 9:10 pm

   Our generations nuclear free moment… what a fucking joke Labour are on climate change all talk but actions on the other hamd tell a different story.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/132546099/government-admits-it-made-a-mistake-when-keeping-a-lid-on-the-carbon-price
7. Alan 7

   13 July 2023 at 9:16 pm

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/maori-party-launches-at-matariki-says-prime-minister-and-labour-wont-call-the-shots-come-election-night/E3XDU3G2A5BVROOCFLRVEOW5IE/

   and the negotiations begin
   • Incognito 7.1

     13 July 2023 at 9:39 pm

     and the negotiations begin

     Nope, they’ll start, if at all, in just over three months. Stop trolling!
   • Mac1 7.2

     14 July 2023 at 9:30 am

     "A surging Te Pāti Māori is warning Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Labour they won’t be calling the shots come election day in response to his ruling out a wealth and/or capital gains tax."

     That is not, repeat not, negotiating! Rather, put kindly, it's positioning.
8. Francesca 8

   13 July 2023 at 10:23 pm

   I have to confess to being a total Nicky Hager fan , got to hear him speaking at the Fabian Society in Wgtn

   Here he is speaking about AUKUS, along with others elaborating the indigenous people's take .

   Good to see Mike Smith too

   The Indigenous challenge to AUKUS in AOTEAROA
   • Patricia Bremner 8.1

     14 July 2023 at 2:02 am

     Thank you Francesca.

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